The Orioles lost a rare home series vs the Rangers, so will be all in today to bounce back against the 4-6 Guardians.  The Orioles are a fine hitting team, facing the worst in the league at runs scored/9.  True to form, the Guardians are batting just .212 against right handers over their last 10 games.  Cleveland's young left-hander Logan Allen (3.31 ERA) has impressed this year, but he has also been a bit lucky.  His hit totals are much higher than they should be, and he has seen his WHIP climb from 1.09 in April to 1.62 in May.  Orioles righty Wells struggled against the Yankees last time out.  He is very successful at limiting hits, but has been a victim of the long ball.  The Guardians trail all teams by a wide margin in home runs this season.  Wells has been much better at home this year. 

There is nothing wrong with the Guardians' pitching but you have to score runs to win games.  Given the hits totals that Allen has given up lately, I expect the O's to take advantage and  put up some runs.  Take Baltimore, 16-10 at home, to win Game one of the series.

No doubt that the Under will be a “popular” play tonight in Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics. That’s atypical as the public usually prefers to bet the Over. But history can be difficult to ignore, especially when Unders are on a 37-24 (61%) run in Game 7’s including 11-1 L12 when excluding the 2020 “bubble.” 

But I will go against the grain and take the Over here. We’ve seen a massive adjustment in the number from Game 5 when the O/U line closed at 214.5. 

Each of the last two games in the series saw a combined 207 total points scored. That would now be enough to cash an Over ticket. None of the games in this series have seen fewer than 207 total points scored. 

Neither team shot all that well in Game 6 and we still got to 207. The Celtics shot just 20% from three-point range (7 of 35). The Heat were an abysmal 19 of 63 (31%) from inside the arc. I believe we’ll see better shooting in both regards here in Game 7. 

Even with the last three games in this series all going Under, Boston is 11-5 to the Over in its last 16 games and Miami is 16-6 to the Over in its last 22 games (including 10-2 on the road). 10* 

It has not been common for the Knights, a superb road team, to give up four goals in a non-overtime away game.  The Stars carried it to the Golden Knights, looking faster and sharper, while hemming Vegas in with an blanketing forecheck.  While Hill was impressive at times, he definitely appeared more vulnerable in Game Five, with his save % dropping to below .900 for the first time in seven games.  In the other net, Oettinger appears to have bounced back from his three game slide and has looked more like his dominant self in the last two games.  Robertson has stepped up his game with more chances and better success, scoring three times in the last two games.  Eichel has bee held scoreless in three straight games now. 

With Benn back, Oettinger playing better and the Stars finally with some momentum,  I like Dallas' chances to tie the series up tonight.  Take the Stars, a very good home team to win.

The Rangers have the top offense in the league at the moment and are getting fine starting pitching lately.  So, how do you get around the Rangers' one weak area, their sketchy bullpen?  Just start Eovaldi, who in addition to a 6-2 record and a 2.40 ERA, has averaged over eight innings pitched in his last five starts.  The Tigers aren't even that much of an offensive threat, presently 27th in Runs scored/9.  They'll start lefty Matt Boyd, who as struggled more often than not, with short appearances and a 6.11 ERA in May.  The Tigers pen hasn't been much better than the Rangers lately, and will likely be more heavily used on Monday.  Watch out Matt Boyd.  The Rangers have hit a very hot .338 vs left-handers in their last ten games.  Texas to win.