7* Nationals/Astros Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +1.5 (-135) 

The Key: Stephen Strasburg is too good to allow the Astros to beat the Nationals by more than one run tonight, let alone beat him at all.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Nationals on the Run Line here.  Strasburg is 5-2 with a 1.34 ERA in 8 postseason starts lifetime.  Justin Verlander is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last 4 playoff starts this season.  Take Washington. 

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +15 

The Key: Ryan Fitzpatrick plays with a fire that is contagious.  He nearly led the Dolphins from 14 points down to beat the Redskins but just came up short on a 2-point conversion.  Then he nearly beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road in the Bills last week, who were coming off their bye.  Fitzpatrick is ready for the big Monday Night Football stage now.  The Steelers aren’t good enough offensively to pull away from the Dolphins.  They are 28th in total offense.  I would argue the Dolphins are actually the better offensive team in this matchup with Fitzpatrick.  This line has gotten out of hand with Miami catching more than 2 touchdowns. The Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye week.  The Steelers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of at least 10 points.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Packers/Chiefs OVER 47.5 

The Key: Oddsmakers have adjusted this total too much for Patrick Mahomes being out.  Andy Reid has 10 days to get Matt Moore ready to run this offense after the Chiefs last played on Thursday.  And I think the Chiefs will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this week even with Moore at QB because the scheme is great and the weapons are some of the best in the NFL.  I also expect Aaron Rodgers to put up a ton of points and continue playing at an MVP level.  The Packers are putting up 30.6 PPG in their last 5 games overall.  Now they’ll be up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in yielding 377.4 YPG.  And the Chiefs are likely to be without their 2 best pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, as well as one of their top corners in Kendall Fuller.  The Packers are 26th in total defense at 381 YPG allowed.  They have recently allowed 563 yards to the Cowboys and 484 yards to the Raiders in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The OVER is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford is too prideful to pack it in.  The Cardinal are 3-4 this season but they’ve played the 3rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They are coming off a bad loss to UCLA, but that was with their 3rd-string QB, which is one of the worst QB’s I’ve ever seen.  Now the Cardinal should get back either starter KJ Costello or 2nd-stringer Davis Mills this week from injury.  Both have been effective, so as long as one of them starts as I’m expecting, we’ll be good to go.  Arizona lost 27-51 at home to Washington and 14-41 at USC in its last two games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.  The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cardinal are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of those games by 24 points or more.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off 2 straight conference games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Astros/Nationals Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 8 

The Key: Zack Greinke is 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA in his last 6 playoff starts.  Look for him to get rocked again in another high scoring Game 3.  The weather is perfect in Washington DC with little to no wind and 60 degree temps at game time.  Anibal Sanchez has been good this postseason, but he faces a different animal here in this hungry Astros lineup.  The OVER is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games.  Take the OVER. 

7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 

The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them.  Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season.  And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings.  You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs.  That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season.  The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points.  The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings.  Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Washington. 

7* Astros/Nationals Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +1.5 (-132) 

The Key: Stephen Strasburg is the biggest underdog he has ever been in his career tonight.  Only having to lay -132 on him on the +1.5 run line is a gift from the books.  Another game that’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel here and it’s likely this game is decided by one run either way.  Strasburg sports a 1.10 ERA in 7 lifetime postseason appearances with 6 starts.  Justin Verlander is 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He has yielded 10 runs and 5 homers in 17 1/3 innings during this stretch.  The Nationals are 90-35 in Strasburg’s last 125 starts and 44-15 in his last 59 road starts.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

7* Nationals/Astros Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +1.5 (-115) 

The Key: The total for this game is only 6.5, so oddsmakers are expecting a pitcher’s duel.  And when that’s the case there is a good chance the game is decided by one run either way.  Getting Max Scherzer on the run line here as only a -115 favorite is a great price.  Scherzer has been dominant in the postseason, especially of late while yielding only one run and 5 hits in his last 15 innings pitched for a 0.60 ERA.  The Nationals have won 15 of Scherzer’s last 18 starts.  They have won 6 straight playoff games and couldn’t possibly come into the World Series with any more confidence after coming from behind to win the wild card game and Game 5 of the NLDS over the Dodgers before sweeping the Cardinals with ease.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 

The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession.  They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run.  The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively.  The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans.  Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year.  This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday.  They don’t have to travel at all.  The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Take Denver. 

7* MLB Playoffs Game of the Year on New York Yankees -128 

The Key: Masahiro Tanaka beat Zack Greinke in Game 1 to cash in the Yankees as nearly +150 underdogs.  Tanaka will beat Greinke again in Game 4 here and save the Yankees season.  Tanaka is 3-0 with a. 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Tanaka sports a 1.95 ERA in his last 6 starts against the Astros.  Greinke is 0-4 with a 6.84 ERA in his last 5 postseason starts.  He has yielded 19 runs and 8 homers in 25 innings.  The Yankees have won 54 of their last 72 home games.  Take New York. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Astros/Yankees Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +141 

The Key: If anyone was going to beat Gerrit Cole this season, it would be the Yankees at home.  They are 59-24 at home this year.  And I would argue they are going with their most talented starter tonight in Luis Severino, who had a huge season last year but has been injured most of this year, so he is under the radar.  Severino is 1-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 4 starts this year, and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 2 home starts. Severino is also 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Yankees, yielding only 2 earned runs in 16 innings.  The Yankees are 22-3 in home games off a loss this year, and 14-1 in home games after scoring 2 runs or less this year.  Take New York. 

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 

The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week.  What has changed since then?  Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week.  Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5.  The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here.  No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points.  And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them.  I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year.  They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively.  The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season.  The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average.  Take Green Bay. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game.  Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts.  He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks.  New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season.  The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year.  Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road.  This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense.  And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday.  Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 

The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season.  They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them.  They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year.  The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well.  Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones.  Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Take New England. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette. 

7* Astros/Rays AL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 7.5 

The Key: The Astros and Rays combined for 13 runs in Game 3.  I think they’ll easily top this 7.5-run total in Game 4 as well.  Justin Verlander is vulnerable tonight as he’ll be pitching on 3 days’ rest for the first time this season.  And Diego Castillo will be the opener in what will be a bullpen game for the Rays.  Castillo is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 6 starts this year, and 0-0 with a 10.81 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Castillo is 11-2 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 4-0 in Astros last 4 playoff road games.  The OVER is 13-3 in Castillo’s last 16 starts.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 

The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year.  They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year.  Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns.  And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road.  Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy.  The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week.  I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory.  The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  Take San Francisco. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them.  Let alone the are catching more than a field goal.  They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry.  And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off.  The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year.  They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL.  Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals.  He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense.  There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle PK 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams just gave up 55 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday.  Their defense is gassed, and their offense may be even more tired after trying to come back from a 21-0 deficit.  Now they have to play on a short week here and travel to Seattle Thursday night.  The Seahawks will have plenty left in the tank after beating the Cardinals 27-10 on the road last week.  The Seahawks want to avenge 2 losses to the Rams by a combined 7 points last year.  I believe the Seahawks have the better team this year with all they added in the offseason compared to all the Rams lost.  Los Angeles has a terrible offensive line and can’t get a consistent run game going.  Jared Goff is under constant pressure, which helps explain why he had just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through 4 games.  Take Seattle. 

7* Rays/A’s AL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 7.5 

The Key: Two elite starters go at it tonight followed by two elite bullpens in this wild card game.  The end result will be a pitcher’s duel and UNDER 7.5 combined runs.  Charlotte Morton is 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 33 starts this year for the Rays.  Morton is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the A’s, including 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA in 2 starts against them in 2019 while yielding only one earned run in 13 1/3 innings.  Sean Manaea is 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 5 starts this year.  Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Rays.  The UNDER is 6-0 in A’s last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in A’s last 6 playoff home games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Manaea’s last 6 starts.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Rays’ last 5 games overall.  The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Oakland.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Brewers/Nationals NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington -174 

The Key: The Nationals come into the postseason with all the momentum and a real chance to win a World Series with their combination of starting pitching, a revamped bullpen and a great lineup.  I expect them to handle their business here in the wild card against the Brewers and improve to 9-0 in their last 9 games overall.  The Brewers are 0-3 in their last 3 games overall, which has to have given their confidence a hit because all 3 were meaningful games in Colorado with the NL Central title at stake.  Max Scherzer sports a 2.92 ERA in 27 starts this year and a 1.80 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against the Brewers.  I trust in him to get the job done over Brandon Woodruff, who has a 4.41 ERA in 9 road starts and a 5.14 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Take Washington. 

7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 

The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter.  They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills.  The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC.  And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver.  They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 

The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night.  The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8.  The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2.  Two of those games were on the road.  The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more.  They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points.  The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread.  I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight.  The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* AL East Game of the Year on Tampa Bay Rays -142 

The Key: That Tampa Bay Rays are the 2nd wild card right now, but 0.5 games behind the A’s and 0.5 games ahead of the Indians.  They need to keep winning just to get into the postseason.  The Yankees have already clinched the division and aren’t likely to catch the Astros for the top seed.  They don’t need wins right now, and it’s showing.  The Yankees are just 5-5 in their last 10 games overall, while the Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 contests.  The Rays have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight with Charlie Morton, who is 15-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 32 starts, and 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in 16 home starts.  Jonathan Loaisiga is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 3 starts for the Yankees.  The Yankees are 4-19 as a road dog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 years.  New York is 0-4 in Loaisiga’s last 4 starts.  The Rays are 6-0 in Morton’s last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 

The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night.  They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game.  The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season.  And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year.  Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year.  Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP.  The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process.  Take Chicago. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots.  The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins.  This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity.  That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.  And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns.  Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian.  Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable.  Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss.  Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 

The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far.  He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season.  The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road.  This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3.  Take Jacksonville. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-150) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are now 16-1 against the Detroit Tigers this season.  They have won 15 straight over the Tigers with all 15 wins coming by at least 2 runs.  The Indians have a huge advantage on the rubber over the Tigers today.  Aaron Civale is 3-3 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.06 ERA in 3 home starts.  Civale is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts against the Tigers this year.  Spencer Turnbull is 3-15 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 27 starts for the Tigers, including 0-2 with an 11.11 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Turnbull has never beaten the Indians, going 0-5 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible.  They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him.  Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over.  They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points.  The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense.  The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long.  All of these factors favor a low scoring game.  Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season.  Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings.  They just couldn’t get out of their own way.  The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor.  They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards.  Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2.  They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have.  The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5

The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior.  He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers.  Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder.  He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss.  I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight.  The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year.  They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year.  Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* AL Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -130 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are fighting for a wild card in the American League.  There is only 2 games separating 3 teams fighting for 2 spots with the Rays and A’s also in the mix.  The Indians have handled their business against the Angels winning 6-2 and 8-0 in the first two games of this series, and they should sweep it tonight.  The Angels are 4-14 in their last 18 games overall, and they’ve been playing with Mike Trout of late due to injury.  Cleveland starter Adam Plutko is 6-4 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  Los Angeles starter Dillon Peters is 2-2 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 8 starts.  The Indians are 7-1 in Plutko’s last 8 starts against a team with a losing record.  The Indians are 23-4 in the last 27 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Minnesota Twins -144 

The Key: The Minnesota Twins are hungry to win the AL Central.  The Washington Nationals are kind of stuck in no man’s land right now as they are likely to get the 1st wild card, but they can’t win the division.  The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  Jose Berrios is the better starter in this matchup with a 3.78 ERA in 28 starts this year, and a 3.62 ERA in 12 home starts.  Anibal Sanchez has a 4.11 ERA in 26 starts for the Nationals.  He gave up 7 runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of a 4-8 loss to the Mets in his last turn.  The Twins are 51-17 in their last 68 games against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 40-16 in their last 56 games off a loss.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 

The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year.  The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings.  They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year.  And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year.  They have had the Broncos’ number.  Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio.  The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons.  They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017.  They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year.  I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years.  The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate.  They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski.  Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-136) 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games overall and have scored a total of 28 runs in their last 3 games.  They are now 55-18 at home this season and winning by 2.1 RPG on average.  The Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall and have fallen out of playoff contention.  Clayton Kershaw is 9-1 with a 2.62 ERA in 14 home starts this year.  Kershaw is 23-11 with a 1.66 ERA in 46 lifetime starts against the Giants.  The Dodgers are 45-11 in Kershaw’s last 56 home starts.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* Packers/Bears NBC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46.5 

The Key: The Bears will once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They didn’t lose much from a unit that gave up just 17.6 PPG last year.  The Packers should be improved defensively this season as they finally spent some money in free agency and loaded up in the early rounds of the draft.  But the Packers could struggle early offensively as they have put in a new system under Matt LeFleur.  Aaron Rodgers didn’t play at all in the preseason and should be rusty.  The Bears were improved offensively last year, but they are still no juggernaut on that side of the ball.  They play to their strengths, which is their defense.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NL West Game of the Week on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-144) 

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored 21 runs in the first 2 games of this series with the Rockies while covering the Run Line both times.  Expect more of the same tonight thanks to their advantage on the mound once again in this contest.  Hyun-Jin Ryu is the favorite to win the Cy Young as he’s 12-5 with a 2.46 ERA in 25 starts, including 9-1 with a 1.54 ERA in 12 home starts.  Antonio Senzatela is 8-9 with a 6.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Rockies, including 0-3 with a 20.25 ERA in his last 3 starts while yielding 18 earned runs in 8 innings.  The Dodgers are 54-18 at home this season and winning by 2.1 RPG.  Ryu is 21-3 as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 years with the Dodgers winning by 2.8 RPG.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-146) 

The Key: The Dodgers just hung 16 runs on the Rockies yesterday as Colorado had to throw a position player to the mound at the end of the game.  Now the Dodgers have another big advantage over the Rockies on the rubber tonight.  Julio Urias is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Chi Chi Gonzalez is 0-5 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  Colorado is 2-15 in road games off a loss by 4 runs or more while losing by 3.6 RPG.  The Dodgers are 53-18 at home this season.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-150) 

The Key: Big advantage for the Dodgers on the rubber tonight over the Rockies.  Walker Buehler is 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA in 25 starts this year.  He is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 12 home starts as well.  Buehler is 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  Peter Lambert is 2-5 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 15 starts for the Rockies this year.  Lambert sports a 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against the Dodgers, both of which have come this season.  The Dodgers are 52-18 at home this year while winning by 2.1 RPG on average.  Colorado is 2-14 in road games off a loss by 4 runs or more this year, losing by 3.4 RPG.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-138) 

The Key: The Washington Nationals are the hottest team in baseball.  They’ve been playing well for months, but in particular of late as they are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall with 12 of those wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Expect more of the same today with Pat Corbin getting the ball.  Corbin is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 home starts this year.  Corbin is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against Miami, including 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in 3 starts against the Marlins in 2019, yielding only 2 earned runs in 23 innings.  Caleb Smith is coming off 2 terrible starts in a row where he yielded 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.  Smith is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Nationals.  Take Washington on the Run Line. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-117) 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are 3.5 games of the Twins in the AL Central.  They need to continue their dominance of the Tigers to close the gap.  They did just that yesterday with a 10-1 victory.  They are now 53-17 in the last 70 meetings, including 13-1 in 14 meetings with the Tigers this season.  This should be a blood bath considering the advantage the Indians have on the rubber.  Aaron Civale sports a 1.82 ERA in 5 starts this year.  Jordan Zimmerman sports an 8.18 ERA in 7 home stats.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-6 with a 10.68 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against them.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -148 

The Key: The Cleveland Indians are 3.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central.  They need to continue their dominance of the Tigers to close the gap.  The Indians are 52-17 in the last 69 meetings, including 12-1 in 13 meetings with the Tigers this season.  Adam Plutko is 5-3 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts this year.  Spencer Turnbull is 3-12 with a 4.05 ERA in 23 starts, 0-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 home starts, and 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Detroit is 1-14 in home games against a starter with a. WHIP of 1.20 or better this year.  Cleveland is 17-1 against an AL team that scored 3.9 RPG or fewer this season.  Take Cleveland. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Philadelphia Phillies -125 

The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies are battling for a wild card spot in the National League.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-30 in their last 41 games overall.  These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  Jason Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 home starts this year.  Joe Musgrove is 8-12 with a 4.94 ERA in 26 starts for the Pirates, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his last 3 outings.  The Phillies are 12-5 in their last 17 games off a loss.  The Pirates are 16-40 in their last 56 road games against a left-handed starter.  The Phillies are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Nationals/Cubs NL *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +119 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs do not want swept at home by the Nationals.  This is their chance to salvage the series and I like the price we are getting on them as home underdogs.  The Cubs are 44-21 at home this season and are rarely home dogs.  Cole Hamels is 17-9 with a 2.69 ERA in 38 lifetime starts against the Nationals.  Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA in 10 home starts this year.  Take Chicago. 

7* NFLX Game of the Year on New Orleans Saints -3 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The Astros are cheap on the run line tonight considering the advantage they have on the rubber over the Angels tonight.  Zack Greinke is 13-4 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 26 starts this year.  He’ll be opposed by Jose Suarez, who is 2-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and 0-3 with a 10.22 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in his last 3 outings.  The Angels are 0-4 in Suarez’s last 4 starts.  The Astros are 40-13 in their last 53 Game 1’s.  The Astros are 44-21 in the last 65 meetings, and 7-1 in the last 8 home meetings.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130) 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays have actually been a lot better on the road than at home this year.  They are 40-23 on the highway in 2019.  They should win by multiple runs tonight over the Baltimore Orioles thanks to their advantage on the rubber.  Ryan Yarbrough is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 7 starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in 3 road starts.  Asher Wojciechowski is 2-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 9 starts, and 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA in his last 3 outings.  He yielded 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-6 loss to the Rays in his only lifetime start against them back on July 2nd.  Baltimore is 1-21 after allowing 3 runs or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by 4.0 RPG in this situation.  Take Tampa Bay on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague Game of the Week on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-170) 

The Key: Instead of laying -350 plus to back the Dodgers on the money line we’ll take them -170 on the run line and save nearly 200 points of juice.  They exploded for 16 runs on the Blue Jays yesterday and not face an opener in Wilmer Font who has a 5.61 ERA in 4 road starts this year.  Walker Buehler is 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 23 starts this year for the Dodgers, and 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 11 home starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games against a right-handed starter.  The Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.  There’s better than a -170 chance of the Dodgers winning this game by 2 runs or more.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. 

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100) 

The Key: The Chicago Cubs have a big advantage on the rubber tonight over the San Francisco Giants.  Cole Hamels is 6-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 20 starts this year, and 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in 9 home starts.  Tyler Beede is 3-6 with a 5.74 ERA in 15 starts, including 3-3 with a 6.11 ERA in 9 road starts.  Beede faced the Cubs on July 24th and yielded 4 runs, 3 homers and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings of a 1-4 loss.  Beede is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 6 starts overall having yielded 8 homers in 31 1/3 innings with opponents hitting .321 against him.  Chicago is 21-3 in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 over the last 2 seasons and winning by 2.9 RPG.  The Giants are 0-5 in Beede’s last 5 starts.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Hamels’ last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.  Take Chicago on the Run Line. 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on St. Louis Cardinals -112 

The Key: The Cardinals are cheap at home tonight.  Dakota Hudson is 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA in 24 starts, 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in 11 home starts, and 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Zach Davies is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 23 starts this year, but 0-3 with an 11.77 ERA in his last 3 outings, which required a trip to the DL.  Now he makes his first start back off the DL and will be on a pitch count.  Davies is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Cardinals, yielding 17 earned runs in 20 1/3 innings.  Hudson is 10-0 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  Take St. Louis. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-120) 

The Key: The Houston Astros have lost 5 straight and are hungry for a win Sunday.  They don’t want to get swept by the Oakland A’s and want to salvage this series with a Game 4 victory.  They should do just that thanks to their advantage on the rubber.  Zack Greinke is 12-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts this year, including 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 road starts.  Greinke is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against the A’s.  Brett Anderson is 4-5 with a 4.65 ERA in 11 home starts this year.  Anderson is 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against the Astros.  Anderson is 1-9 in home games against a team that outscores their opponent by one or more runs per game in his career.  His teams are losing by 3.6 RPG on average in this situation.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-166) 

The Key: The Boston Red Sox have won 3 straight and have outscored their last 2 opponents 14-2.  The Red Sox will win this game over the hapless Orioles by multiple runs again tonight.  Eduardo Rodriquez is 13-5 with a 4.33 ERA in 24 starts and 6-1 with a 3.96 ERA in 10 home starts.  Rodriquez is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against the Orioles, including 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 5 starts against them with all 5 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Asher Wojciechowski is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 8 starts for the Orioles this year.  Take Boston on the Run Line. 

7* NL Central Game of the Month on Cincinnati Reds -138 

The Key: Luis Castillo is having a Cy Young worthy season and will shut down the Cardinals tonight.  Castillo is 11-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 24 starts this year, and 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 15 home starts.  Castillo sports a 3.11 ERA in 8 lifetime starts against the Cardinals, and he’s 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last 3 starts against them while yielding 2 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  Adam Wainwright is 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA in 11 road starts this year.  Wainwright has a 5.42 ERA in 26 lifetime starts against the Reds, and he yielded 7 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start at Cincinnati on July 19th.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Astros/A’s AL West *BAILOUT* on Oakland +111 

The Key: The Oakland A’s should not be home dogs to the Houston Astros today.  The Astros have gone 1-3 in their last 4 games overall while losing as -450, -355 and -350 favorites.  The A’s have the clear advantage on the rubber tonight with Mike Fiers, who is 11-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts, including 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA in 3 home starts.  Fiers has limited the Astros to only 4 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against them this season.  Aaron Sanchez is 5-14 with a 5.60 ERA in 25 starts this year, including 2-8 with a 6.41 ERA in 13 road starts.  Sanchez is also 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against the A’s.  Take Oakland. 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Diego Padres -105 

The Key: The Padres will be hungry to avoid the sweep after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays.  And now they have the advantage on the rubber in Game 3 today.  Cal Quantrill is 3-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 3.16 ERA in 7 home starts.  Quantrill is 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his last 3 outings as well.  Tampa Bay starter Jalen Beeks is 0-1 with an 11.04 ERA in his 2 starts this year.  Take San Diego. 

7* Interleague Game of the Month on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-144) 

The Key: The Cardinals have won 3 straight and have scored 20 runs in the 3 wins.  They take on a Royals team that is 4-12 in their last 16 games overall.  The Cardinals have a big advantage on the rubber tonight with Jack Flaherty, who is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts this year.  Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts while yielding just 2 earned runs in 20 innings with 28 strikeouts.  Glenn Sparkman is 3-6 with a 5.96 ERA in 13 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.56 ERA in his last 3 starts, yielding 18 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 1/3 innings.  The Cardinals are 37-15 in their last 52 against a team that wins less than 40% of their games.  The Royals are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague home games.  Kansas City is 1-5 in Sparkman’s last 6 starts.  Take St. Louis on the Run Line. 

7* Red Sox/Indians ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +106 

The Key: Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in Cleveland Monday night on ESPN.  The Indians are 36-15 in their last 51 games overall and have moved into a tie for first place with the Twins in the AL Central.  The Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall to fall 7.5 games back in the wild card and are almost assuredly missing out on the playoffs now.  Zach Plesac isn’t getting the respect he deserves as a home dog to the Red Sox here.  Plesac is 6-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts this year, including 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 7 home starts.  Eduardo Rodriquez has a 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 13 road starts for the Red Sox this season.  Plesac held the Red Sox to one run in 5 1/3 innings at Fenway Park back on May 28th in his only lifetime start against them.  The Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 road games.  Boston is 0-8 in its last 8 against a team with a winning record.  The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a left-handed starter.  The Indians are 6-0 in Plesac’s last 6 starts overall and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Phillies/Giants ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -103 

The Key: The Phillies are just 1-4 in their last five games overall and have scored only 6 runs in the 4 losses.  Talented rookie Conner Menez should shut them down today as well.  Jake Arrieta has been below average this season at 8-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 23 starts.  He is pitching through injury and just hasn’t been right of late.  He hasn’t made it out of the 6th inning in any of his last 6 starts.  The Phillies are 6-14 in their last 20 road games against a left-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last 6 road meetings with the Giants.  Take San Francisco. 

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -144 

The Key: The Red Sox aren’t dead yet.  They’ve rebounded nicely by winning the last two days and outscoring the Angels 19-4 in the process.  The Angels have basically given up at this point as they are currently in the midst of an 8-game losing streak.  Andrew Heaney is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 9 starts this year and will get lit up by the Red Sox today.  Heaney has a 6.97 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Red Sox as well.  Take Boston. 

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-155) 

The Key: The Astros have won 9 of their last 10 all by 2 runs or more.  They now face the Orioles, who were just swept by the Yankees and outscored 12-32 in the process.  Wade Miley has a 3.05 ERA on the season and a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts.  He is a much better starter than Dylan Bundy, who has a 5.15 ERA on the season and a 5.89 ERA at home.  Bundy is 1-18 against teams that score 4.9 RPG or more over the last 2 years.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* AL East Game of the Month on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

The Key: The New York Yankees are riding an 8-game winning streak after their 14-2 beat down of the Orioles Wednesday night.  They have hit at least 5 home runs in 3 straight games and are playing with all kinds of confidence.  Domingo German is 10-0 against teams that steal 0.5 or fewer bases per game this season.  The Yankees are winning by 4.9 RPG in this situation.  German is 9-0 against division opponents this season with the Yankees winning by 4.6 RPG.  German is 13-2 with a 4.06 ERA in 18 starts, while Thomas Pannone is 0-3 with a 9.28 ERA in 5 starts for the Blue Jays.  Take New York on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-175) 

The Key: We’ll lay the Astros on the Run Line today.  They’re playing too well and have too big of an advantage on the rubber tonight to not win by at least 2 runs.  Gerrit Cole is the Cy Young winner if the season ended today.  He is 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 24 starts with 216 strikeouts in 150 2/3 innings.  Cole is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against the Rockies.  Peter Lambert is 2-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  Lambert is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one lifetime start against the Astros, which came on July 3rd.  The Rockies are 8-22 in their last 30 games overall.  The Rockies are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.  Colorado is 1-7 in Lambert’s last 8 starts.  The Astros are 23-5 in Cole’s last 28 home starts.  The Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall with all 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Take Houston on the Run Line. 

7* Interleague *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cincinnati Reds -140 

The Key: The Reds come in playing well at 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.  The Angels appear to have given up after losing 5 of 7 recently to the Tigers and Orioles of all teams.  The Angles are now 2-9 in their last 11 games overall.  Big advantage goes to the Reds on the rubber tonight . Anthony Desclafini is 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA in 9 home starts this year.  Jose Suarez is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 9 starts for the Angels, and he has a 5.70 ERA in 5 road starts.  The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.  Take Cincinnati.