7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

7* Heat/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics have responded every time they’ve had some adversity.  They won Game 7 against the Raptors, and they won Game 3 after falling into an 0-2 hole to the Heat.  With their season on the line tonight they will respond again.  The Celtics are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 playoff games as a favorite.  Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 18-9 ATS off a SU loss this season.  The Celtics are 20-11 ATS when revenging a loss this year.  Take Boston.

7* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins hung 28 points on the Buffalo Bills last week and gave them everything they could handle.  They also hung tough with the New England Patriots on the road.  They are going to be able to score at will on this awful Jaguars defense that gave up 33 points to the Titans last week and that is giving up 400 YPG this year.  The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a SU loss.  The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.  Bets on road dogs who gave up 335 or more YPG last year after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  Take Miami.

7* Celtics/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: This game is likely to go down to the wire and it’s clear the Miami Heat are better in clutch moments in these playoffs.  So I’ll trust them here catching 3 points.  They had a chance to win late in Game 3 after taking the first 2 games of this series despite shooting terribly.  The Heat shot 38.8% in Game 3 compared to 48.2% for Boston.  There won’t be that big of a disparity again, and the Heat certainly won’t shoot as poorly as they did from the 3-point line, where they were 12-of-44 (27.3%).  The Heat are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the playoffs this year.  The Heat are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games off a loss.  The Heat are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are very comfortable being down in a series.  They gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 2 and probably should have won, but lost at the buzzer.  They’ll come back in Game 3 with their best effort of the series.  The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.  Take Denver.

7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5

The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1.  Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season.  Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th.  The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest.  They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once.  They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week.  There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense.  He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018.  He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.  Take Las Vegas.

7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets.  They are taking it personally.  They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1.  I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans.  Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball.  With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete.  The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year.  They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready.  The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5

The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair.  The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week.  They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games.  They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year.  Take the OVER.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Chicago White Sox -138

The Key: They Chicago White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 games overall.  They have won 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  And now they have the edge on the rubber over the Twins once again today, and it’s not even close.  Lucas Giolito is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts this year with 82 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings.  Jake Odorizz is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 3 starts this year for the Twins, and all 3 came against the light-hitting Royals.  The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games.  The White Sox are 14-2 in their last 16 home games.  The White Sox are 26-8 as a favorite of -110 or higher this year.  Take Chicago.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger.  They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG.  They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38).  Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season.  The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering.  Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants.  And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason.  There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers.  That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year.  The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew.  Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting.  He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts.  Take Jacksonville.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 219.5

The Key: We’ve seen all these playoff series get lower and lower scoring as they progress.  And this Lakers/Rockets series should be no different.  After combining for 226 points in Game 2, the Lakers and Rockets only combined for 214 points in Game 3.  And I see more of the same here in Game 4.  Houston is 21-11 UNDER off a loss this season.  Houston is 17-4 UNDER revenging a home loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Denver Nuggets +8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets won Game 2 outright as 8.5-point dogs and covered in Game 3 in a 6-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers just aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here on a neutral court as 8-point dogs again for Game 4.  This is a big game for the Nuggets to try and get back into this series and square it up at 2-2.  They will be the hungrier team and will be playing like it.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinals games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks went from being basically 5-point favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now underdogs.  They were 2.5-point dogs in Game 4 with the uncertainty surrounding Giannis.  He played and got off to a quick start before injuring his ankle again.  He didn’t play the entire 2nd half and the Bucks still won 118-115 (OT).  Now the Bucks are 4-point dogs in Game 5, basically a 9-point adjustment for likely being without Giannis, and I don’t agree with it.  The Bucks aren’t 9 points worse without him.  They actually can space the floor better because the Heat can’t sink in on Giannis like they have been doing.  Now the Heat have to play the Bucks more straight up because of all the great shooters on their team.  And the Heat have some injuries of their own that are flying under the radar as Herro, Crowder and Olynyk are all questionable to play tonight.  Giannis is also technically questionable and not officially out yet.  The Bucks will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight after pulling out Game 4 in OT and staying alive.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -1.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics had a terrible shooting night in Game 4 and lost 93-100.  They made just 7 3-pointers compared to 17 for the Raptors.  Just shoot the ball a little better and they would have won that game.  That’s what I’m expecting to happen for them here in Game 5 as they grab back control of this series.  The Celtics are 27-12 ATS against teams with winning records this season and I trust head coach Brad Stevens to get them to respond today.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Lakers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: Rust has played a factor in the Lakers losing both Game 1’s in these playoffs.  They didn’t all play together in the bubble and it hurt them in their upset loss to the Blazers in Game 1 last round.  And having 6 days off prior to this series with Houston hurt them in Game 1.  The Lakers will be much sharper in Game 2 tonight and their massive advantages in this series will show through.  They actually got out rebounded by the Rockets in Game 1, which should never happen with their size.  They won’t let it happen again, and they can’t shoot it much worse than they did in Game 1.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors went from being favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now 2-point dogs in Game 4.  I like this price we are getting on the Raptors who have to be feeling very confident after beating the Celtics at the buzzer in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 hole.  The Raptors just need to shoot it better and they’ll get right back in this series, which seems like an easy fix.  Toronto is shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range in this series compared to 38.7% for Boston.  The Raptors are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 ATS.  The Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Take Toronto.

7* Bucks/Heat Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Miami Heat should not be getting this much respect from the books.  They were 5-point dogs in Game 1 and 5.5-point dogs in Game 2 and won both outright to improve to 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  But now they are back down to only 5-point dogs in Game 3, a game that the Milwaukee Bucks simply have to have.  Look for the Bucks to be the team playing with the sense of urgency here down 0-2 and for the Heat to have their worst performance of the series knowing that they have some breathing room.  I expect the Bucks to win this game with plenty of room to spare by double-digits.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have to win this game to get back in this series.  They are down 2-0 because Boston has shot lights out while Toronto couldn’t have been colder.  The Celtics are shooting 41.6% with 32 made 3’s in this series while the Raptors are shooting 26.3% with only 21 made 3’s.  It took an out of this world performance from Marcus Smart and his 5 3’s in the 4th quarter for the Celtics to win Game 2.  The Raptors will return the favor in Game 3 tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were at a huge disadvantage in Game 1 and I cashed in the Heat +5.5 because of it.  But I’m taking the Bucks in Game 1 tonight because that advantage no longer exists for the Heat.  The Heat had 7 days to get ready for the Bucks while the Bucks only had 1 day to get ready for the Heat.  But now the Bucks will be much more prepared here in Game 2 with another day of practice in between games to figure out the right strategy for the Heat.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by more than 10 points, and the Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver ML -105

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have all the momentum now after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the last 2 games by double-digits.  Jamal Murray has been unstoppable, and will continue to be tonight.  The Nuggets won a Game 7 against the Spurs last year so they won’t shy from the pressure.  And all the pressure feels like it’s on the Jazz in this one.  And the Nuggets have Gary Harris back healthy now to give Donovan Mitchell another look defensively after Mitchell had torched the Nuggets before his return.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  Take Denver on the Money Line.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat went 2-0 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season before the bubble.  They won 105-89 as 4.5-point home dogs and 131-126 as 11.5-point road dogs.  I’m willing to not count their 116-130 loss to the Bucks in the bubble as 10-point dogs because both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic sat out that game, and those are their two best players.  The Bucks let the Magic hang around the entire season despite a plethora of injuries for the Magic, including to their best player in Aaron Gordon, who didn’t play the entire series.  The Heat swept the Pacers and won all 4 games by at least 9 points each.  The Bucks have their hands full with the Heat starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Heat have had the last 6 days off to prepare for Milwaukee, while the Bucks only have one day to get ready for Miami after playing on Saturday.  Take Miami.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-126)

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have had just 2 losing streaks the entire season.  It just so happens that both are 4-game skids like the one they are currently on.  They won’t be losing a 5th straight today.  Kenta Maeda is the real deal at 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  Casey Mize clearly still has some work to do in his rookie season.  Mize is 0-1 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in his 2 starts.  The Twins are 70-25 in their last 95 games against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Tigers are 29-83 in their last 112 games as underdogs, including 16-58 in their last 74 games as home underdogs.  Take Minnesota on the Run Line.

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Magic/Bucks UNDER 225.5

The Key: The last 2 games in this series have seen 228 and 227 combined points after a 207-point output in Game 2.  The reason is simple.  Both the Magic and Bucks have shot lights out from 3-point range.  They have both shot at least 40% in each of the last 2 games with the Bucks 34-of-78 (43.6%) and the Magic 37-of-85 (43.5%).  I just cannot see this continuing, and as a result I love the UNDER 225.5 points in Game 5 today.  We just need a slight dip in 3-point shooting from one or both of these teams to cash this UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* AL Central Game of the Year on Minnesota Twins -154 (Game 1)

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have lost 2 straight games coming in.  It’s only their second 2-game losing streak of 2020, which shows how good they have been.  They’ll get right back on track today against the lowly Detroit Tigers, who are one of the worst teams in baseball once again in 2020.  Big edge to the Twins on the rubber here.  Randy Dobnak is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 6 starts this year.  Matt Boyd is 0-4 with an 8.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 6 starts for the Tigers.  He has already yielded 27 runs and 8 homers in 28 2/3 innings.  Dobnak held the Tigers to one hit and zero walks in 6 innings in his only previous start against them in 2019.  Boyd is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Twins, yielding 12 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 innings.  The Twins are 70-23 in their last 93 against a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30.  The Twins are 53-24 in their last 77 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 19-62 in their last 81 home games.  Take Minnesota in Game 1.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a must-win tonight to keep their season alive.  They battled hard in Game 4 but came up 2 points short.  The Jazz shot nearly 58% as a team and attempted 23 more free throws than the Nuggets.  Only a slight improvement in both categories should have the Nuggets winning this game outright.  The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Take Denver.

7* Pacers/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +6

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are a prideful team that won’t just lay down and die for the Miami Heat.  The Pacers have been in every game this series with all 3 games decided by 12 points or fewer.  And I think we are getting them at their best price of the series here as +6 dogs in Game 4.  The Heat are 10-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this year.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.  The Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win.  Take Indiana.

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing for their season today down 0-3 in this series.  They were competitive in Games 1 and 3 with a pair of 8-point losses.  And now they are 8-point dogs in Game 4 after not being more than 6-point dogs in any other game in this series thus far.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  The 76ers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  Take Philadelphia.

7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Indiana Pacers +5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in must-win mode in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 games of this series.  They were competitive in the first two games but couldn’t get it done in the 2nd half.  They will put it all together in what is essentially a win or go home game for them.  And I also expect the Heat to relax just enough with a comfortable 2-0 lead to let the Pacers have their way today.  Take Indiana.

7* Mavericks/Clippers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers will respond Friday after getting embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2.  It’s a Clippers team that was missing a lot of pieces during the restart, so it’s no wonder they have opened this season a bit rusty.  Look for them to put it all together in Game 3 and take back control of this series.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS off a loss this season.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Magic/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -12.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Orlando Magic, 110-122 as 13.5-point favorites.  Now they are shorter favorites in Game 2 and I think we see a role reversal here with the Bucks dominating from start to finish.  They’ll be playing with a sense of urgency today, something they did not do in Game 1.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 years.  They are coming back to win by 13 PPG on average in this situation.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a SU loss.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz forced overtime in Game 1 despite shooting just 16 for 47 (34%) from 3 while Denver shot 22 for 41 (53.7%).  Look for the Jazz to pull the upset in Game 2 as the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Donovan Mitchell, who scored 57 points in the opener.  And I fully expect him to get more help from his role players in this one, especially from 3-point range.  The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Utah.

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* NL East Game of the Month on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Key: I always love the angle of the pitcher facing his former team for the first time.  That will be the case for Zack Wheeler of the Phillies up against the Mets Sunday.  Wheeler is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 3 starts in 2020.  He’ll be opposed by Rick Porcello, who was terrible in Boston last year and hasn’t been any better for the Mets thus far.  Porcello is 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 4 starts in 2020.  The Mets are 0-8 as underdogs of +100 to +150 this year.  The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 home matchups with the Mets.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+108)

The Key: Sonny Gray has been one of the top starters in the game over the last 2 years.  Gray is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 4 starts this year with 35 strikeouts in 24 innings.  That includes 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 3 home starts.  Chad Kuhl will be making just his 2nd start of the year for the Pirates.  Kuhl is 18-20 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 64 games in MLB lifetime.  Gray is 14-1 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 years and the Reds are winning by 3.5 RPG.  Take Cincinnati on the Run Line.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

7* AL Central Game of the Month on Chicago White Sox -113 

The Key: The White Sox really need a win as they are just 1-4 while the Cleveland Indians are 4-1.  Ace Lucas Giolito is here to the rescue and is the much better starter in this matchup with Zach Plesac.  Giolito is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against Cleveland.  He has pitched 14 2/3 shutout innings in his last 2 starts against them with 17 K’s.  Plesac has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Take Chicago. 

7* National League Game of the Week Pittsburgh Pirates +155

The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates want revenge after blowing a 5-1 lead in the 9th and losing in extras to the Brewers yesterday.  We are getting them at a tremendous price here Tuesday in Game 2 of this series.  Derek Holland has never lost to the Brewers as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against them.  Josh Lindblom makes his return to the majors after spending the last few years in Korea.  He is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHP lifetime in the majors.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-120)

The Key: Josh James is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 7 lifetime appearances against the Mariners.  Kendall Graveman will be making his first appearance since May 11, 2018 for the Mariners.  He went 1-5 with a 7.60 ERA in 2018.  The Astros are hitting .290 and scoring 7.0 RPG through 3 games this season behind one of the best lineups in MLB.  The Mariners are hitting .238 and scoring 3.7 RPG.  Seattle is 10-45 vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 RPG or more over the last 2 years.  It is losing by 2.4 RPG in this situation.  Take Houston on the Run Line.

7* Braves/Mets ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +102

The Key: The Braves should not be underdogs to the Mets today.  Rick Porcello went 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA with Boston in 2019 and is on the decline.  Sean Newcomb went 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA last year for the Braves.  Newcomb is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against the Mets.  Take Atlanta.

7* Saturday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 9.5

The Key: I definitely got robbed on the UNDER 8.5 yesterday in the Cardinals/Pirates game.  It was 3-0 going into the 7th inning and finished with 9 combined runs.  I’m back on the UNDER 9.5 today because the fact remains that these are two of the worst lineups in baseball, especially Pittsburgh.  Adam Wainwright has allowed just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his final 2 starts against the Pirates in 2019.  Trevor Williams gave up just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 starts against St. Louis in 2019.  Take the UNDER.

7* Friday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 8.5

The Key: The Pirates have arguably the worst lineup in baseball.  They aren’t going to contribute much to this total going up against Jack Flaherty.  Flaherty is 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts against the Pirates.  Joe Musgrove appeared to fix some mechanical issues at the end of last season by going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA with 32 K’s over his final 5 starts of 2019.  The one weakness for the Cardinals is their lineup as it just hasn’t produced the last few years.  They are a perfect ‘under’ team and that will prove to be the case today.  Take the UNDER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Key: The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be nearly double-digit underdogs to the Arkansas Razorbacks tonight.  They beat Alabama 87-79 as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina 83-74 as 5-point home dogs to close out the season.  And they are now 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.  Arkansas is just 4-9 ATS on the highway this year and this will basically be a road game for the Razorbacks being played in Nashville.  The Razorbacks have lost 5 straight road games by 8, 10, 14, 21 and 4 points.  Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after yielding 75 or more points in 2 straight games.  They are yielding 88.7 PPG in their last 3 games and cannot be trusted to get enough stops defensively to cover this huge number.  Take Vanderbilt. 

7* Virginia Tech/UNC ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -4 

The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels have won 3 of their last 4 games all by 6 points or more.  And they were competitive in their road loss at Duke over the weekend.  The Tar Heels are a dangerous team in this ACC Tournament because they finally have their best player in Cole Anthony healthy, who averages nearly 20 PPG.  They didn’t have Anthony when they lost 77-79 at Virginia Tech in their lone matchup this year.  They will avenge that loss in blowout fashion with Anthony this time.  The Hokies have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  Take North Carolina. 

7* St. Mary’s/BYU WCC *BAILOUT* on OVER 145.5 

The Key: Books have made a big mistake and set this total lower than it should be tonight. The first 2 matchups between BYU and St. Mary’s were shootouts this season, and this one should fall in line as well.  They combined for 154 points at the end of regulation in their first matchup on January 9th and followed it up with a 160-point outburst in their rematch on January 1st.  BYU is averaging 83.1 PPG in conference play this year and has topped 80 points in 8 of its last 10 games overall.  St. Mary’s is scoring 77.4 PPG on the road this year and 83.4 PPG in their last 4 games overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in Gaels’ last 27 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gaels’ last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 against teams that win more than 60% of their games.  Take the OVER.    

7* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois -3.5 

The Key: Illinois wants to avenge its 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 at home this year and were are getting them very cheap tonight.  The home team has won and covered 4 straight matchups in this series.  The Hawkeyes are 2-7 SU in Big Ten road games this year with an average loss of over 12 PPG.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference home loss.  The Hawkeyes are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home loss.  Take Illinois. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Year on Missouri State -2.5 

The Key: The Missouri State Bears have a huge rest advantage over the Valparaiso Crusaders today.  They’ve only had to play one game in the MVC Tournament and just blitzed Indiana State 78-51 yesterday so they were able to rest their starters late.  Valpo has been in 2 dog fights with a 58-55 win over Evansville on Thursday and a 74-73 (OT) win over Loyola-Chicago Friday.  They used a ton of energy coming back from 14 points down at halftime against Loyola and obviously playing OT would have zapped even more energy out of them.  And Missouri State wants to avenge its 89-74 loss at Valpo on February 25th less than 2 weeks ago.  The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  Missouri State is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less.  The Bears are 9-1 ATS in their lat 10 games off a win by 10 points or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games off a win by more than 20 points.  Valpo is 1-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 years.  Take Missouri State. 

7* Bucks/Lakers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1 

The Key: The Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 games and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight and avenge an earlier road defeat to them by 7 points.  We saw the Bucks struggle in their last 2 road games losing by 16 at Miami and failing to cover a huge spread at Charlotte in an 8-point win.  The Lakers come in on 2 days’ rest while the Bucks will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 76-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska +17 

The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a nice bet on the road this season because they are consistently catching too many points and never quit.  Despite being just 2-11 SU in all games played away from home, the Huskers have gone 9-4 ATS.  They have only beaten beaten by more than 17 points on the road 3 times, and two of those were 19-point losses.  They have hung within 6 of Indiana, 5 of Northwestern, 12 of Ohio State, 3 of Rutgers, 2 of Maryland and 12 of Illinois in Big Ten road games this season.  Michigan was just upset at home by Wisconsin 74-81 and got blown out at Ohio State 63-77 in its last 2 games.  The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Nebraska is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days this year.  The Huskers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this year.  Take Nebraska. 

7* Dayton/Rhode Island Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Rhode Island +4.5 

The Key: The Rhode Island Rams (20-8) are squarely on the bubble now after losing at home to a very good Saint Louis team on Sunday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against Dayton tonight.  They want to avenge their 67-81 road loss at Dayton in which they shot just 28.8% from the field and 20% from 3-point range.  They aren’t going to shoot that poorly again at home, where they are 12-2 SU this year.  Dayton has already wrapped up the Atlantic 10 and won’t be that hungry to beat Rhode Island for a 2nd time this year.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss.  The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss where the other team scored 75 points or more.  The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on Richmond -5.5 

The Key: The Richmond Spiders are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford a slip up here down the stretch of the regular season.  Richmond is 22-7 on the season, 12-4 in conference play and 13-2 at home.  The Spiders went on the road and beat Davidson 70-64 in their first matchup.  They won’t have much of a problem winning by 6 points or more in the rematch at home.  Davidson just gave up 72.3% shooting to Dayton on the road Saturday and lost by 15.  They have a problem defending, which is not a problem Richmond has.  Davidson is 5-12 SU & 4-13 ATS in all road games this year.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road dog.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.  Take Richmond. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  That includes upset home wins over the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Nets and also a win over the Mavericks.  They have a great home court edge as fans are excited to turn out to see Trey Young and company in action.  The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  This bad stretch can be attributed to injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who combine to average 28.9 PPG & 10.5 RPG.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games losing by 17.8 PPG.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Minnesota/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -5 

The Key: No team is playing better than the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with road wins over Nebraska by 17 and Michigan by 7 as well as home wins over Ohio State by 13, Purdue by 4 and Rutgers by 8.  Now they want to avenge their 52-70 road loss at Minnesota as 1-point favorites on February 5th in the game that preceded this winning streak.  Wisconsin is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home matchups with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers led the entire way against Maryland last time out but lost on a last-second 3-pointer 73-74.  They have no chance of making the NCAA Tournament now and I question their motivation.  It’s always tough to come back from a last-second loss in a game you should have won.  Wisconsin is 13-1 SU at home this year while Minnesota is 2-8 SU in true road games.  The Gophers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -3 

The Key: The USC Trojans are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and have consistently been lacking respect from oddsmakers.  That showed Thursday when they upset Arizona 57-48 getting 4.5 points at home.  And they only lost by 2 at Arizona State in their first matchup.  USC is 12-2 at home this year and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  The Trojans have won 17 of their last 21 home matchups with Arizona State.  Take USC. 

7* Thunder/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -10.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since the break and showing no signs of slowing down.  They beat the Pistons by 20 on the road, the 76ers by 21 at home and the Raptors by 11 on the road.  The Bucks are 26-3 at home this year and will make easy work of a tired Oklahoma City Thunder team.  The Thunder will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They barely survived 112-108 at home over the Kings last night and won’t have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bets against road dogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Milwaukee. 

7* Arizona State/UCLA Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on UCLA -3.5 

The Key: The UCLA Bruins have improved rapidly in the first season under Mick Cronin and are now on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament.  They get their next 2 games at home against ASU and Arizona and have a big opportunity to add some quality wins.  The Bruins are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They are looking to avenge one of their rare losses during this stretch February 6th at Arizona State.  UCLA has won 16 of its last 20 home matchups with the Sun Devils.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off a conference win.  Take UCLA. 

7* Rutgers/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State -5 

The Key: Penn State wants to avenge its road loss at Rutgers earlier this year.  The Nittany Lions also want to bounce back from 2 straight losses at home to Illinois and on the road to Indiana.  They had gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their previous 8 games in the most impressive stretch in the Big Ten this season, so they were due for a few bad games.  But they’ll get back on track tonight against a Rutgers team that is just 1-7 SU in true road games this year with he only win coming at lowly Nebraska.  The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS after playing a road game this year.  Take Penn State. 

7* American Athletic Game of the Year on SMU -4 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 14-1 at home this year and 6-0 at home in conference action.  Off 2 bad road losses in a row, the Mustangs will be hungry for a win when they host the Memphis Tigers Tuesday.  And I think it’s a bad spot for Memphis off their upset home win over Memphis.  They have won their last 2 games both at home by a combined 5 points.  Bets against underdogs off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against a team that is off a road loss by 20 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997.  The Mustangs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home matchups with Memphis.  Take SMU. 

7* Oklahoma State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma State +14.5 

The Key: This game has letdown written all over it for Kansas.  The Jayhawks just went on the road and beat #1 Baylor in a 64-61 thriller to move into a first-place tie.  They won’t be able to get up for Oklahoma State, who they already beat by 15 on the road earlier this year.  This letdown situation won’t allow them to cover this lofty 14.5-point spread.  And the Cowboys are completely different team than the one that loss to Kansas on January 27th.  Oklahoma State is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall with its only losses coming on the road to Baylor by 8 and at WVU in a game they led at halftime.  They also upset Kansas State on the road, while beat TCU by 15, Texas Tech by 3 and Oklahoma by 17 at home.  Bets on dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that went under the total by 24 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that went under the total by 42 or more point sin their last 7 games are 59-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Oklahoma State. 

7* Rutgers/Wisconsin Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -4.5 

The Key: This is about as easy as it gets.  Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this year while Rutgers is 1-8 in all road/neutral games.  The only road win for Rutgers this year came at lowly Nebraska.  The Badgers want to avenge their 65-72 road loss at Rutgers in their first matchup this season.  Rutgers is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games off 2 straight games where they attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  Wisconsin is 76-45 ATS in its last 121 home games off a home win.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina PK 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are making their usual late-season push under head coach Frank Martin.  No team has improved more in the SEC as the season has gone on than the Gamecocks.  They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games while winning those 5 games by 14.6 PPG.  That includes an upset home win over Kentucky.  Now they host a struggling LSU team that has gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games with its only win coming by 4 points at home against Missouri as 11-point favorites.  They are coming off a home loss to Kentucky, and it’s going to be hard to get as motivated to face South Carolina tonight.  The Gamecocks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a conference loss.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take South Carolina. 

7* VCU/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Saint Louis +2 

The Key: The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-3 at home this year with all 3 losses to very good teams in Dayton, Seton Hall & Duquesne.  VCU is 4-6 in all road games this year and just lost to Rhode Island by 12 and Richmond by 18 in their last 2 road games.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  VCU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 this year.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as a dog.  Take Saint Louis. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Oregon State +11 

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are coming off a 22-point home loss to Colorado that has them lacking respect from oddsmakers tonight as double-digit dogs at Arizona.  The Beavers had won 3 of their previous 4 games including a road upset of Stanford and a home upset of Oregon.  They also beat Utah by 19.  We’ll chalk that Colorado loss up to a one-time stinker and not indicative of what this team is moving forward.  Arizona is getting too much respect off road wins and covers over Cal and Stanford.  Their last two home games they failed to cover, losing outright to UCLA 52-65 as 12.5-point favorites and narrowly beating USC 85-80 as 10-point favorites.  Oregon State beat Arizona 82-65 at home as 4-point dogs in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  The Beavers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games off 2 consecutive home games.  Arizona is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Oregon State is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off an ATS loss.  Bets against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent that’s off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more are 42-15 ATS since 1997.  Take Oregon State. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech -3.5 

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies want to avenge their 61-71 loss at Miami on January 28th in their first matchup this year.  Miami is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 ACC road games losing by an average of a whopping 18.2 PPG.  Virginia Tech is 11-4 at home this year.  Miami is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after playing 2 consecutive games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -10.5 

The Key: West Virginia will be playing with a chip on its shoulder tonight.  The Mountaineers opened 18-4 this year but have now lost 3 straight games.  That’s easily explainable considering they faced the 2 best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor and also lost at Oklahoma.  Now they get to take one one of the worst teams in the conference in Oklahoma State to get back on track.  They already beat the Cowboys 55-41 on the road in their first matchup this year.  The Cowboys are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in Big 12 play this year.  The Mountaineers are 12-1 at home this year with their only loss coming after a big blown lead to Kansas late in the second half.  West Virginia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Take West Virginia. 

7* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -16 

The Key: Iowa State has played 2 games since the season-ending injury to their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (15.2 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.9 RPG).  They lost by 29 at Oklahoma and beat Texas by 29 at home.  So which team can we expect from the Cyclones moving forward? I think it’s the one that lost by 29 to Oklahoma.  The Cyclones shot 57.1% against Texas and faced a Longhorns team missing several key players due to injury.  They simply aren’t better without Haliburton, one of the best players in the country, and that will show tonight at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS in Big 12 play this year with their only loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 17-point home win over Oklahoma, which just beat Iowa State by 29.  And we can expect a 17-plus point victory tonight.  Kansas already won 79-53 at Iowa State in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this year.  The Jayhawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games when playing their 3rd game in a week.  The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  Iowa State is 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  The Jayhawks are 45-21-3 ATS in their last 69 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Kansas. 

7* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -5 

The Key: Minnesota has had over a week to prepare for Iowa having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only gets 2 days to prepare for Minnesota having last played on February 13th in a 77-89 road loss to Indiana.  The Hawkeyes have been atrocious on the road in conference play this season.  They are just 1-6 SU in Big Ten road games this year with their only win coming at Northwestern, which is 1-13 in conference play.  Minnesota is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this year.  They won’t have to face Iowa’s CJ Fredrick, who averages 10.7 PPG and is their best shooter hitting 46.7% from 3-point range.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Hawkeyes are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Loyola-Chicago -1.5 

The Key: Loyola-Chicago is 6-0 at home in MVC play this year while winning by 14.5 PPG.  The Ramblers want to avenge their 62-67 (OT) loss at Northern Iowa on January 26th and stay alive for the MVC title.  This game means everything to them and we should see a big effort from them as a result.  Loyola-Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 matchups with Northern Iowa with both losses coming on the road in overtime.  The Ramblers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 home matchups with the Panthers.  The Ramblers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a road loss.  The Panthers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 Saturday road games.  Take Loyola-Chicago. 

7* UIC/Wright State Horizon League *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois-Chicago +11 

The Key: Illinois-Chicago is really getting disrespected here as a double-digit underdog to Wright State tonight.  UIC is 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall with one of its losses coming by a single point.  That includes their 76-72 upset win as 6.5-point home dogs to Wright State in their first matchup this year on January 12th.  That makes UIC now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last 3 meetings with Wright State despite being underdogs in all 3 matchups.  UIC is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in a week this year.  The Flames are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Illinois-Chicago Friday. 

7* Iowa/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana -1.5 

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight against a tough schedule.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 at home this year and we are getting them at a great price against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this year.  They even lost at Nebraska and their only win came against Northwestern, the two worst teams in the conference.  Iowa is 7-21 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years.  Take Indiana. 

7* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -5 

The Key: The Villanova Wildcats have lost a season-high 3 straight games to drop to 17-6 on the year.  They will be more hungry for a win tonight than at any other point this season because of it.  And they also want to avenge a 60-71 loss at Marquette in their first matchup this year on January 4th.  Villanova has won 11 of its last 13 home matchups with Marquette, including 6 straight home wins in this series by 6 points or more and by an average of 13.0 PPG.  Marquette has won 3 straight coming in and won’t be able to match the intensity of the Wildcats.  Villanova is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games after 15-plus games against good rebounding teams (+4 RPG or more).  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games after 15-plus games against teams who average 6 steals/game or more.  The Wildcats are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games off a loss.  Take Villanova. 

7* Michigan State/Illinois Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Illinois +2 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans continue getting more respect than they deserve from the books as road favorites over Illinois tonight.  The Spartans are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They were upset on the road by both Wisconsin and Michigan, and they were also upset at home by Penn State as 8.5-point favorites.  Yes, the Spartans will be hungry for a win now, but they just aren’t that good.  Illinois will be hungry for a win as well after 2 straight losses to 2 of the best teams in the Big Ten in Iowa and Maryland.  They had won 7 straight games prior to those 2 defeats.  Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Illinois. 

7* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Indiana Pacers -6.5 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers will be hungry for a win after dropping 5 straight coming into this game.  They get to host the Brookyn Nets, a team they have handled over the last several years.  The Pacers are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 matchups with the Nets. Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a road dog.  Take Indiana. 

7* Notre Dame/Clemson ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson PK 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers have been a very tough out at home this year, especially in ACC play.  The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games which includes an upset win over Duke and solid wins over very good NC State and Syracuse teams.  Notre Dame has won 3 in a row but all 3 wins were at home and against suspect competition.  The Fighting Irish are just 2-5 in all games played away from home this year.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Clemson. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -2 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are in need of a win here after dropping 3 of their last 4.  But all 3 losses were on the road to Syracuse, Duke and Notre Dame and they were competitive in all 3.  Pitt is 10-4 at home this year and will handle Georgia Tech today.  The Yellow Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, but all 3 wins came at home.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -2 

The Key: Illinois is competing for a Big Ten regular season title this year thanks to winning 7 of their last 8 games overall.  And the Fighting Illini want to avenge their 58-59 loss at Maryland on December 7th where they blew a 14-point halftime lead.  We’re getting the Illini cheap at home tonight considering they are 12-1 at home this year, including 5-0 at home in Big Ten play.  Illinois gets more time to prepare for this game as well after playing on Sunday while Maryland just played on Tuesday.  The revenge, the extra rest and the big home court edge all add up to what should be a comfortable win for the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois. 

7* USC/Arizona ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on USC +10 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the USC Trojans tonight.  They are coming off one of their worst performances of the season in a 57-78 loss to Colorado.  I think we’re getting a few more points than we should on them now.  Arizona is coming off two straight impressive road wins over Washington and Washington State and you’re paying a tax on them now.  USC is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals.  Arizona is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games after having won 3 of its last 4 games.  USC is 8-2 ATS in road games against a team with a winning record this year.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in road games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers this year.  USC is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take USC. 

7* Iowa/Purdue Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Purdue -4 

The Key: Purdue has gone 16-1 SU in its last 17 Big Ten home games and holds one of the best home-court advantages in the conference.  They beat Michigan State by 29 and Wisconsin by 19 at home this year.  Iowa is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with losses to Michigan by 12, Penn State by 3, Nebraska by 6 as 8-point favorites and Maryland by 10.  Their lone road win came against Northwestern, which is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten.  Purdue is 13-4 SU & 10-7 ATS in its last 17 home matchups with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Iowa is 16-37-2 ATS in its last 55 road games against a team that wins more than 60% of their home games.  The Boilermakers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Purdue.