7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers nearly beat the Cleveland Browns last week even with resting their starters.  They lost 22-24 but gained 394 yards with a backup QB.  They were a failed 2-point conversion from forcing OT.  Now the Steelers have their starters back and will win and cover in the rematch similar to when they beat the Browns 38-7 at home earlier this year.  Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 all-time against Cleveland and has never lost to them at home.  The Steelers are now 26-2 SU & 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 home matchups with Cleveland.  The Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID, and he is their play-caller on offense.  It's a huge loss.  The Browns are 8-26-2 ATS in their last 36 vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff home games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas -6.5

The Key: Kansas had its wake up call with a 25-point home loss to Texas two games back, its worst home loss in program history.  The Jayhawks bounced back with a 93-64 win at TCU as a 6-point favorite.  And now they are short 6.5-point home favorites against Oklahoma.  The Jayhawks have won 9 of their last 10 games overall, so that performance against Texas was an aberration.  Oklahoma just lost by 15 at Baylor and hasn't fared well at Kansas.  The Jayhawks are 16-0 SU in their last 16 home matchups with Oklahoma dating back to 1997.  Oklahoma is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games off a loss by 10 points or more.  The Sooners are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against good offensive teams that score 77 PPG or more.  Take Kansas.

7* Clippers/Warriors ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -6.5

The Key: The Clippers have won 4 straight matchups with the Warriors all by 7 points or more and by an average of 15 PPG.  They beat the Warriors 108-101 on Wednesday in what was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Warriors had the previous day off.  Now this is a much better situation for the Clippers as they are fully healthy, while the Warriors could be without Stephon Curry.  Either way, I like Patrick Beverly's chances of shutting him down again even if he does play.  Beverly held him to 13 points and only 5 made field goals in the first matchup.  Curry was seen limping off the floor afterward and it would be wise of the Warriors to sit him.  The Clippers are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games as road favorites.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against division opponents.  The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* 76ers/Nets TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn ML +112

The Key: The situation really favors the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off following their blowout win over the Jazz by 34 points on Tuesday that saw them get to rest their starters in the 4th quarter as well.  The 76ers were in a dog fight with the Wizards last night and prevailed 141-136 despite 60 points from Bradley Beal.  That effort will have taken a lot out of the 76ers, and now they won't have much fight left tonight for the Nets.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the 76ers, a brutal schedule to start the season.  Bets against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being the spread by 30 or more points total in their last 5 games against a team that went under the total by 24 points or more in their last 3 games combined are 24-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Brooklyn on the Money Line.

7* ACC Game of the Week on Louisville -4

The Key: Virginia Tech is overrated due to its 8-1 record this season.  This will actually be the Hokies' first true road game this season, and it comes against one of the best teams in the ACC in Louisville.  The Cardinals are 7-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road at Wisconsin.  They will make easy work of the Hokies, which has been a yearly tradition for them.  Louisville has won 16 straight matchups with Virginia Tech, most recently a 68-52 home win in March of 2020.  Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Louisville since 1991.  The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  Take Louisville.

7* Kansas/TCU Big 12 *BAILOUT* on Kansas -5.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off their worst home loss in program history to Texas.  Their only other loss this season came to top-ranked Gonzaga.  They will be fired up to bounce back here against an overrated TCU team that has won 5 straight against suspect competition coming in.  The Jayhawks have won 16 of their last 17 matchups with the Horned Frogs.  The Jayhawks are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning record.  Kansas is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 games off a loss by 20 points or more.  Take Kansas.

7* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland +5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers are playing well enough since they opened Big Ten play to warrant being 5-point favorites over Maryland in this matchup.  The Hoosiers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall with their lone win coming in overtime over Penn State 87-85 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by Northwestern 67-74 as 9-point favorites and also failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs at Illinois.  Maryland is 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  The Terrapins only lost by 3 as 6-point dogs at Purdue, upset Wisconsin 70-64 as 10-point dogs and lost to undefeated Michigan 73-84.  Maryland is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last 3 matchups with Indiana.  Take Maryland.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +3

The Key: The Jets have been one of the most profitable teams in the NFL to back down the stretch.  They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They have pulled off 2 straight upsets over the Rams as 17.5-point dogs and Browns as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they would love to get revenge from a 27-30 loss to the Patriots in their first matchup this season.  The Patriots are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, getting outscored a combined 24-84 in the process.  They haven't even been competitive.  If they were going to show something it would have been against the Bills on Monday Night Football last week.  Instead they rolled over and lost 9-38.  Their offense is broken as they have been held to either 12 points or fewer or 291 yards or fewer in 5 straight games coming in.  They are missing several key contributors on both sides of the football.  The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* Bills/Patriots MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7

The Key: The Bills have a lot to play for.  They can be the first team to sweep the season series with the Patriots in 19 years.  And they can grab a stranglehold on the 2nd seed in the AFC with a win here over the Patriots.  They want to keep their momentum going, too.  The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss coming on that hail mary against Arizona.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as well with 5 wins by 10 points or more.  They are scoring 34.8 PPG in their last 6 games and giving up just 18.8 PPG in their last 4 contests.  The Patriots are averaging just 248 YPG in their last 4 games as their offense has held them back all season.  Their best defensive player in CB Stephon Gilmore just went out with a season-ending injury against the Dolphins last week in their 22-12 loss.  They won't have him to match up with Stefon Diggs now, who is having a monster season in his first year in Buffalo.  There's just nothing to like about the Patriots right now, and there's everything to like about the Bills, who may be the best team in the AFC.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC Total of the Year on Broncos/Chargers OVER 47

The Key: This game between Denver and Los Angeles has shootout written all over it.  Neither team has anything to play for.  And both are missing key players on defense.  The Broncos are missing as many as 5 defensive backs plus their best defensive player in LB Bradley Chubb.  We saw what the Bills did to them last week in scoring 48 points and with 352 passing yards and 182 rushing yards.  The Chargers will light up this scoreboard as well.  The Chargers are without their 2 best pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  They give up 27.8 PPG this year, while the Broncos allow 28.2 PPG.  These teams played in a 31-30 shootout in their first matchup in favor of the Broncos with their big comeback victory.  And it should be more of the same here in the rematch given the defensive injuries to both teams.  The Broncos are 16-4 OVER in their last 20 games after allowing 40 points or more last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* Bucks/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are a regular season team.  They went 56-17 last year during the regular season.  They added former All-Star PG Jrue Holiday, who will be a big upgrade over Eric Bledsoe to go along with starts Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.  They also added veterans Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig and D.J. Augustin.  They have the makings of the best team in the NBA.  The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward and will be without Kemba Walker to open the season.  The Bucks are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matchups with Boston with all 6 wins coming by 5 points or more.  Take Milwaukee.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Steelers/Bengals MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +14.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Bengals tonight after losing 5 straight and failing to cover 4 of their last 5.  They are getting docked a lot more for their recent struggles than the Steelers are.  Keep in mind the Steelers have lost 2 in a row to Washington and Buffalo.  Their injuries on defense and their lack of a running game on offense have held them back in recent weeks.  Plus they have been a tired team with the schedule difficulty as they will now be playing their 4th game in 20 days.  Their offense has been held to 19 points or fewer in 3 straight.  Cincinnati's defense has given up 20 points or fewer in 3 of its last 4.  And the only exception was the 30 points they gave up to Dallas which was aided by 3 fumbles early in the game.  The Cowboys only managed 272 yards against them.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Steelers have bene a double-digit favorite.  They nearly lost outright to the Cowboys in their largest favorite role of -14.  This is only the 2nd time all season that the Bengals have been a double-digit underdog.  Oddsmakers know that the public wants nothing to do with the Bengals right now so they are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  The Steelers are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati.

7* 49ers/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +3.5

The Key: The Cowboys have covered 3 of their last 5 coming in after a 30-7 win at Cincinnati last week.  This is a great price on the Cowboys at home against a 49ers team that doesn't have anything to play for and has been hurt by injuries worse than any other team in the NFL.  That's a big reason why the 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming in.  The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East race and should be the hungrier team.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.  Take Dallas.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers are the better team than the Las Vegas Raiders despite what their records say.  The Chargers are 4-9 this season but outgaining their opponents by nearly 50 YPG, while the Raiders are 7-6 despite getting outgained by nearly 15 YPG.  The Raiders have a soft defense that allows 30.1 PPG on the season and 37.5 PPG over their last 4 contests.  And that defense isn't getting any better with all of their injuries right now, most notably to DE Ferrell and S Abram, who are among at least 4 starters that are out for this game.  The Chargers want to end the Raiders' playoff hopes here.  That would be sweet revenge for a 26-31 loss to the Raiders in their 1st matchup this year in which the Chargers had their game-winning TD overturned on replay on the final play of the game.  The Chargers outgained the Raiders by 120 yards in that contest and had a 26-16 edge in first downs.  Bets against favorites like the Raiders after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 52-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Raiders committed 3 turnovers in their 27-44 loss to the Colts on Sunday and now have 10 turnovers in their last 3 games.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Northeastern/Syracuse NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -17.5

The Key: Syracuse is 4-1 this year with 3 wins by 30 or more points.  Their only loss came to Rutgers, which just beat Maryland by 14 on the road and is one of the better teams in the country.  They rebounded with one of the best performances of any team this season with a 101-63 win over Boston College.  And now they should make easy work of Northeastern.  The Huskies brought back just 2 players who averaged more than 3.5 PPG last season.  They are inexperienced and have just 2 games under their belts, a home-and-home with UMass.  Syracuse is 7-0 all-time against Northeastern, including 3-0 ATS in the last 3 matchups with a 72-49 win in their most recent showdown in 2018.  The Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS win.  Take Syracuse.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Furman +6.5

The Key: Furman is 5-1 this year and outscoring opponents by 24.1 PPG.  They have picked up right where they left off.  They won 23 games in Bob Richey’s first season, then proceeded to tie a school record with 25 wins each fo the last 2 seasons.  They returned 4 starters and 3 double-digit scorers from last year’s team that went 25-7.  And their only loss this season came on the road to a solid Cincinnati team by a final of 73-78.  Alabama is just 3-2 with an 18-point loss to Stanford and an 8-point loss to Stanford.  I think the Crimson Tide are getting too much respect from the books here against a Furman team that is very capable of winning this one outright.  Plus the Crimson Tide are coming off that huge rivalry game against Clemson and have an even bigger game on deck this weekend against No. 6 Houston.  This is a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Alabama is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Furman is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 road games.  The Paladins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points.  Take Furman.

7* Ravens/Browns MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +3

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are out to prove that they can beat the Baltimore Ravens.  They want revenge from that 6-38 loss in Week 1 in which things spiraled out of control after a botched fake punt early and 3 turnovers.  The Browns have been a completely different team since.  They have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and now find themselves just one game out of 1st place in the AFC North.  They are the much fresher, healthier team right now than the Ravens as well.  Baltimore will be playing its 3rd game in 12 days due to COVID complications.  They had just 5 days to get ready for the Browns after playing the Cowboys on Tuesday.  Cleveland has had 7 days to get ready for Baltimore.  The Browns are 5-1 SU at home this year.  Baker Mayfield is playing his best football and hasn't thrown an interception since October 25, a span of almost 6 games.  He has 11 TD and zero interceptions since his last pick.  And with Nick Chubb back healthy, the Browns have been monsters on the ground.  They have rushed for 100-plus yards in 5 straight games and an average of 173.3 RYPG in their last 4.  The Ravens have given up 111 or more rushing yards in 4 of their last 5.  The Browns have been good against the run all season, yielding only 104 RYPG.  Take Cleveland.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Washington +3

The Key: Washington has won 3 straight including upset road wins over the Cowboys and 49ers to get into a tie with the Giants for 1st place in the NFC East.  But they lost both matchups with the Giants so they are essentially a game behind.  They need wins like blood here down the stretch.  The 49ers just lost to the Bills last week to essentially eliminate them from the playoffs.  They are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I don't like their mindset right now, and there's no way they should be favored over Washington this week.  Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL in yielding only 310.9 YPG.  And Alex Smith has provided some stability to their offense.  He led them back from a 14-0 deficit against the Steelers last week to pull the 23-17 upset.  Washington hasn't lost any of its last 7 games by more than 3 points, making for a 7-0 angle back them here.   The 49ers are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games as favorites.  Take Washington.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

7* NCAAB Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Stephen F. Austin +23.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Baylor.  They are disappointed they didn’t get to play Gonzaga over the weekend due to COVID.  And they will have a hard time getting up emotionally to play Stephen F. Austin tonight.  Especially since they have their Big 12 opener on deck this weekend against Texans.  But the Lumberjacks aren’t a team to be taken lightly.  They went 28-3 last year and won 27 or more games for the 6th time in 8 seasons.  They returned 3 of their top 4 scorers from that 28-win team, too.  And they are primed to give No. 2 Baylor a run for its money tonight.  The Lumberjacks have handled their business at 3-0 with 3 wins by double-digits.  Stephen F. Austin is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 PPG or more.  The Lumberjacks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Stephen F. Austin.

7* Cowboys/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 45

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens just played in a slug fest with the Steelers in a 14-19 loss.  But they were missing QB Lamar Jackson and several other key players on offense.  Jackson and company return this week, and I think we see this Baltimore offense get back to being elite against a soft Cowboys defense.  The Cowboys allow 32.6 PPG and 382 YPG this year.  Baltimore is also missing several key players on defense still, and the Cowboys should be able to get their offense going with all the weapons they have for Andy Dalton.  They scored 31 points against the Vikings 2 weeks ago before being shut down by a very good Washington defense last time out.  The Ravens have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games overall, including 28 or more 3 times.  Dallas is 8-1 OVER in its last 9 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bets on the OVER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 points off a loss against a division opponent against a team that’s off a road loss to a division opponent are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* Washington/Pittsburgh MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7

The Key: Washington is fresh and ready to go after crushing Dallas 41-16 on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday.  They are poised to make a run at the NFC East title.  They have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games while not losing once by more than 3 points.  Their defense is absolutely balling, and Alex Smith is making the offense efficient without making many mistakes.  That defense and not turning the ball over gives Washington a chance to beat anyone, even the unbeaten 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  This may be the worst situation for any team in the NFL.  The Steelers are on only 4 days’ rest after being forced to play the Ravens on Wednesday.  They have to face a Washington team on extra rest, and the injuries and COVID problems are mounting up for Pittsburgh.  They lost LB Bud Dupree against the Ravens and fellow LB Devin Bush was already out.  It’s unknown if DE Tuitt, C Pouncey or RB Conner will be back in time for Monday due to COVID.  And it’s a letdown spot off the big win over the Ravens and with another huge game against the Bills on deck next week.  This just feels like the game the Steelers lose.  But either way getting 7 points with Washington is too much here.  Take Washington.

7* NFC West Game of the Year on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have now failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games.  This line has moved too much because of it, and now the price is right to back the Cardinals.  The Cardinals were favored in this game before the games were played last week.  But now they are 3-point home dogs.  And the only thing that happened was the Rams getting upset as nearly 7-point favorites by the 49ers and the Cardinals getting upset as 1-point favorites against the Patriots.  But the Cardinals should have beaten the Patriots as they lost 17-20 despite holding New England to 179 yards and outgaining them by 119 yards.  The Rams were outgained by 37 yards by the 49ers and turned the ball over 4 times.  They deserved to lose.  Arizona needs this game more as it is one game behind the Rams in the standings.  And I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Cardinals here.  They have played 5 home games this year and haven’t lost once by more than 3 points.  Bets on underdogs or PK who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite that win 51%-60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 30-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Arizona.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

7* Ravens/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -10

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are missing too many key pieces to even be competitive today against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They are without the likes of Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Pernell McPhee, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Brandon Williams, Nike Boyle, Ronnie Stanley and Calais Campbell.  And they are without several others that aren’t big names like those.  They are having to pull up several players from the practices squad just to be able to play in this game.  And they have really pissed off their rivals here in the Steelers, who won’t have any problem pouring it on the Ravens.  They will be trying to sweep the season series for just the 2nd time in 12 years here in 2020 and will relish the opportunity.  And the Steelers have beaten the Bengals and Jaguars by a combined 50 points the last 2 weeks so they have shown the ability to run it up.  The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against AFC opponents.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Pittsburgh.

7* Tuesday NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -10

The Key: Head coach Nate Oats brings back 4 of his top 6 scorers from last year led by John Petty Jr. and Jaden Shackelford, who combined for 30 PPG and 11 RPG last year.  After crushing Jacksonville State 81-57 as 20.5-point favorites, the Crimson Tide fell apart against Stanford yesterday with a 64-82 loss.  They shot terrible at 35.8% from the field and gave up 51.7%.  But their defense has been good at forcing turnovers as they have forced 42 in the first 2 games.  And they will be looking to bounce back in a big way today against a UNLV team that is terrible.  UNLV lost 78-91 as a 12.5-point favorite to Montana State in their opener and were routed 51-78 as a 13-point dog to North Carolina yesterday.  They lost basically everyone other than Bryce Hamilton from last season.  They have committed 35 turnovers in 2 games, so they are sure to not handle the pressure of Alabama very well.  Once UNC turned up the pressure yesterday they crumbled.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take Alabama.

7* Seahawks/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 49

The Key: It’s going to be over 60 degrees with minimal winds in Philadelphia Monday.  This total is too low for a Seattle team that has one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one of the worst defenses.  The Seahawks score 31.8 PPG on offense but give up 28.7 PPG and 435 YPG on defense.  They have the single worst defense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint.  And the Eagles have gotten a lot healthier offensively in recent weeks with several key playmakers returning for Carson Wentz.  He should have one of his best games of the season against this Seattle defense to keep pace with Russell Wilson and company. And the Seahawks get back RB Chris Carson this week, adding to their dynamic offense.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +3

The Key: The Tennessee Titans are looking to avenge their 17-34 loss to the Colts just a two weeks ago.  They led that game 17-13 before a shanked punt and a blocked punt return TD directly led to 14 points for the Colts on special teams mistakes.  That was really a 3-point game that turned into a 17-point loss and looks worse than it was.  But the Titans rebounded with a dominant 30-24 win in Baltimore last week in which they gained 423 yards and held the Ravens to just 306 yards.  Derrick Henry became the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher last week, and his job just got a lot easier here with the Colts missing arguably their most important player on defense in DeForest Buckner due to Covid-19.  In fact several players are out for the Colts due to Covid-19, including starting RB Jonathan Taylor.  The Titans are getting healthy at the right time and will be in much better shape to beat the Colts than they were 2 weeks ago.  Philip Rivers is nursing a toe injury, and he’ll be without starting C Ryan Kelly.  NFL teams that won last week after trailing by 11-plus at halftime are 26-38-1 SU & 19-45-1 ATS in their last 65 tries.  The Colts came back from 14 down to beat the Packers last week and will be fatigued.  They also benefited from 4 turnovers by the Packers, which is uncharacteristic for Aaron Rodgers and company.  The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Tennessee.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

7* NCAAB Dog of the Week on South Dakota State +10.5

The Key: South Dakota State went 22-10 last year and now returns all 5 starters.  They return Conference Player of the Year Douglas Wilson, who averages 18.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG last year.  He and fellow big man Matt Dentlinger combined to shoot 62.8% from the field.  Dentlinger averaged 12.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG.  Sophomores Alex Arians and David Wingett combined for 17.4 PPG and 11.3 RPG last year while both shooting at least 35% from 3-point range.  Noah Freidel averaged 12.2 PPG and shot 39.5% from 3 and 85.2% from he line.  And they have good depth with Baylor Sheierman (6.0 PPG) and Tray Buchanan (6.3 PPG).  The Jackrabbits are live underdogs tonight, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a dog.  Take South Dakota State.

7* Rams/Bucs MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rolling offensively this season.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and coming off a 46-point, 544-yard effort against the Panthers last week in which they did not have to punt once.  The Rams will offer more resistance defensively than the Panthers did, but the Bucs are going to get their points.  And Jared Goff and company are going to have to try and keep up.  The Rams have actually been their best offensively on the road this year.  They are scoring 26.4 PPG and averaging 427.6 YPG on the highway.  Bets on the OVER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 a good passing team (6.7-7.3 YPA) against a good passing defense (5.3-5.9 YPA) after 8 or more games after gaining 8 or more YPA last game are 29-7 since 1983.  The OVER is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-1 in Bucs last 7 games as home favorites.  It’s expected to be 72 degrees with less than 10 MPH winds Monday night in Tampa Bay.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Key: The Cowboys have been much more competitive in their last 2 games against the Eagles and Steelers.  And now they have a bye week to get ready for the Minnesota Vikings.  They still have a shot to win the NFC East because the division has been so poor, so look for them to be revived off their bye week.  The Vikings are on a short week after playing the Bears Monday night.  So the situation really favors the Cowboys, and I like the price with them catching more than a touchdown.  There’s a good chance Andy Dalton returns at quarterback and either way they’ll be fine as Garrett Gilbert played well against the Steelers.  Bets against home favorites after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  Take Dallas.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.

7* Saints/Bucs NFC South Game of the Year on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and have outscored those 7 teams by 13.3 PPG.  They have been a completely different team since losing to the Saints in the opener, and now they are out to prove it and grab a stranglehold on this division as they get revenge at home.  The Bucs have scored at least 25 points in all 6 of their wins this year with an explosive offense.  They give up only 20.6 PPG and less than 300 YPG on the season with one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have won 4 straight games by 6 points or less and have been very fortunate.  They have a leaky defense that allows 28.1 PPG this year.  And Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be and is dealing with a shoulder injury right now.  The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 consecutive wins by 3 points or fewer.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

7* Packers/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -2.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are hungry for a couple of reasons here Thursday night.  They want to erase the taste of their upset loss to the Vikings last week, who were in a good spot coming off their bye week and the Packers just couldn’t stop Dalvin Cook.  And they also want revenge after losing to the 49ers in both matchups last year.  They were eliminated in the playoffs by a very good 49ers team.  But this 2020 version of the 49ers is a mash unit with all of their injuries.  It only got worse in their loss to the Seahawks last week with both Jimmy G and George Kittle having to leave the game with injuries.  I’m not even going to list all of their injuries because it would take too long.  Let’s just say their current roster has little chance of even being competitive against this 2020 Packers team.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this year with their only loss to the Bucs, who might be the best team in the NFC.  They beat the Saints, Vikings and Texans by a combined 31 points.  The 49ers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS at home this year with upset losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Bets on road teams off 5 straight games where they force 1 or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Green Bay.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

7* Bucs/Giants MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +11

The Key: All the value in backing the Bucs has gone by the wayside the last 2 weeks with their blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits on the road against the New York Giants this week.  You just don’t want to be laying double-digits on the road in the NFL.  The price is right to back the Giants, who continue to play in close games and show up every week.  That’s why the Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have been a nice money maker.  They only lost by 4 to the Bears, by 8 to the Rams, by 3 to the Cowboys and by 1 to the Eagles and covered the spread in every one of those games.  One of their non-covers was a 20-19 win over Washington as 2-point favorites.  So, 5 of their last 6 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  They have a sneaky good defense that can keep them in games.  And Daniel Jones just got back his favorite receiver in Sterling Shepard from injury last week and he made an immediate impact.  Shepard has 6 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in a 21-22 road loss to the Eagles last Thursday.  That also means the Giants have extra time to prepare now after playing last Thursday.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing a Thursday game.  Bets against road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10 PPG or more off a win by 10 points or more are 51-20 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York.

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are rested and ready to go coming off their bye week.  They won’t be lacking any motivation this week with their hated rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town.  Having that opponent I’m sure made the Ravens sharp on their bye week.  And John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the NFL to back on extra rest.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are 5-1 this year with their 5 wins coming by 17.8 PPG and their only loss coming to the Chiefs.  They will now hand the Steelers their first defeat of the season Sunday.  Take Baltimore.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

7* Falcons/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -2.5

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They are coming off a 22-23 loss to the Lions when they had the game in the bag if they had just executed.  But they scored a TD instead of running the clock out and kicking a chip shot FG, opening the door for the Lions to win on the final play of the game.  Now the Falcons are 1-6 with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  The Panthers are 3-4 right now and could easily be 6-1.  They still believe they can make the playoffs and this is a huge game for them.  Teddy Bridgewater is playing great football and threw for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns in their 23-16 win in Atlanta earlier this year.  The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back this week.  This will only be the 2nd outdoor game for the Falcons this year.  They lost by 14 to the Packers in their only other outdoor game and are now 0-5 ATS in their last 5 grass games.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups.  Take Carolina.

7* Bears/Rams MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Chicago Bears are a paper tiger.  They are 5-1 and could easily be 1-5 instead.  They came back from 17 down to beat the Lions and 16 down to beat the Falcons in the 4th quarter of both those games.  They came back from 13-0 down to beat the Bucs.  They needed a late stop to beat the Giants 17-13.  And last week needed a late stop to avoid OT against the Panthers.  They were beat worse than the 19-11 score against the Colts would indicate.  And they are getting outgained by nearly 25 YPG this year, which isn’t what you would expect from a 5-1 team.  They will get exposed by the Rams, who are 4-2 and outgaining their opponents by nearly 70 YPG on the season.  It is a Rams team that will be playing hungry after losing to the 49ers last week.  The Rams have actually been better defensively than the Bears this season in giving up 318 YPG compared to 337 YPG for the Bears.  And the Rams have the way better offense in averaging 388 YPG compared to 313 YPG for the Bears.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  They will win this game by a TD or more Monday night.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucs/Raiders Sunday Night Game of the Year on Las Vegas +3

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders have wins over the Saints 34-24 and the Chiefs 40-32.  If those two results don’t tell you how capable this team is, I don’t know what will.  Yet the Raiders are once again getting overlooked as 3-point home dogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  This is a letdown spot for the Bucs off their huge win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week.  And we saw the Bucs go on the road and get beat by the Bears the last time they traveled as similar 3-point favorite.  The Raiders have an elite offense that score 30.2 PPG and will test this Tampa defense.  They are led by Derek Carr, who is having a career year with 73.1% completions and 11 touchdowns against only 1 interception this year.  He and Jon Gruden are on the same page right now.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in road games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Take Las Vegas.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Giants/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Giants are built for UNDERS right now.  They have a pitiful offense that is missing their two best players in Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard.  They are averaging just 16.8 PPG and 275 YPG on the season.  But their defense has been solid in yielding only 342 YPG.  The Eagles are struggling offensively because they are missing 9 starters due to injury.  They average just 329 YPG and give up 355 YPG.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 versus division opponents, off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite are 25-5 over the last 10 years.  The Giants are 31-11 UNDER in their last 42 games off a win by 3 points or less.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Rays/Dodgers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay +137

The Key: Tony Gonsolin will get the ball for the Dodgers tonight and he has certainly been a weak link in Los Angeles’ rotation.  Gonsolin sports a 9.95 ERA this postseason.  Blake Snell sports a 3.20 ERA on the year, a 3.20 ERA this postseason and a 2.88 ERA in his postseason career.  The Dodgers don’t hit left-handed pitching as well as right-handed, so I like the price we are getting with Snell and the Rays over Gonsolin and the Dodgers tonight.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* Rays/Dodgers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -170

The Key: Clayton Kershaw gets a bad rap for previous playoff failures.  You know he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder.  And he has held up well in these playoffs thus far with a 3.32 ERA in 3 starts.  He has a 2.44 ERA in all starts this year and remains one of the most dominant starters in baseball.  This line his warranted with the Dodgers big favorites due to their edge on the rubber.  Tyler Glasnow has a 4.23 ERA in 15 starts this year and a 4.66 ERA in 4 postseason starts.  The Dodgers have the way better lineup as well and are coming in sky high in confidence after coming back from 3-1 down to beat the Braves last series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

7* Dodgers/Braves Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1.5 (-139)

The Key: Clayton Kershaw is back healthy here after back spasms kept him out of his Game 2 start.  That’s great news for the Dodgers considering Kershaw is 7-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 14 lifetime starts against the Braves having never lost to them.  The Dodgers just put up a 15-spot in Game 3 after scoring 7 runs in the final 3 innings of Game 2.  They are hot at the plate and have their ace on the rubber tonight.  That’s a winning combination.  Take Los Angeles on the Run Line.

7* NLCS Game of the Year on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Key: The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t lost 3 in a row all season.  They aren’t about to start now.  They have a big edge on the rubber with Urias over Wright tonight and it will show as the Dodgers win this game by 2 runs or more.  The Dodgers are 47-19 in their last 66 games off a loss and a perfect 4-0 off 2 consecutive losses in 2020.  They win with room to spare in Game 3 tonight to get back into this series.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat just got back Bam Adebayo from injury.  They gave won Game 3 outright as 9-point dogs and gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 4 in a 6-point loss.  And now they are catching 7.5-points in Game 5, which is too much.  The Lakers are not the better shooting team in this series, but they have somehow overcome the odds and outshot the Lakers from beyond the arc.  They have 59 made 3-pointers while the Heat only have 45 for the series.  You’d think that would even out as the series goes on.  Maybe this is finally the game where the Heat make more 3’s than they do.  Either way, they will fight scratch and claw for 4 quarters to try and stay alive, and that should be good enough to stay within the number tonight and possibly win outright.  Take Miami.

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

7* MLB Total of the Week on Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5

The Key: The New York Yankees and their opponents have combined for 12 or more runs in all 4 postseason games and an average of 14.5 RPG.  The Yankees have a dangerous lineup now that everyone is back healthy and they have just been pounding the ball led by Giancarlo Stanton, who has 5 HR in 4 games.  The Rays have also shown some life offensively with a combined 18 runs scored in their last 3 games.  And they should get after Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 outings.  Tanaka has yielded 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last 2 starts against the Rays this year.  Charlie Morton has a 4.32 ERA in 12 lifetime starts against the Yankees.  Morton sports a 4.74 ERA in 9 starts this year.  Take the OVER.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat showed their resiliency by winning Game 3 outright as 9-point underdogs, 115-104.  Jimmy Butler had a 40-point triple double and willed this team to victory.  And now the Heat should be getting Bam Adebayo back from injury from Game 3. The Lakers made more 3-pointers than the Heat for a 3rd straight games, which was very unlikely when you consider the Heat are a great shooting team while the Lakers are a terrible one.  It’s now 45 to 34 the edge in 3-pointers made for the Lakers in this series.  Look for the Heat to narrow that gap in Game 4 tonight and come away with a cover and possibly another outright victory.  Take Miami.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be laying it all on the line tonight.  This is a must-win after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  And this has been a resilient team all year as they have gone 23-8 ATS following a loss this season.  The Lakers have made 31 3-pointers in this series while the Heat have only made 22.  That’s really the difference in the series, and it has been a big upset thus far because the Heat are the way better shooting team when you look at their numbers compared to the Lakers coming into this series.  It will even back out tonight as the Heat have their best shooting game of the series.  Take Miami.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat +10

The Key: The Miami Heat are catching double-digits against the Lakers tonight and they shouldn’t be.  This is a huge game for them in this series.  And this is a 5.5-point adjustment from Game 1 where the Heat were +4.5 dogs to close.  I realize Adebayo and Dragic are unlikely to play, but the Heat have the depth to overcome it.  They can go small and give the Lakers some problems.  They are the best shooting team in the NBA from the 3-point line which is a big reason why they have made it this far.  But the Lakers won the 3-point line in Game 1, which is a huge upset.  The Lakers were 15-of-38 while the Heat were only 11-of-35.  Look for a role reversal here.  The Heat shoot 37.4% from 3 on the season and the Lakers only shoot 35% as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

7* Broncos/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40.5

The Key: Both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have been up against some very good defenses this season.  The Jets have faced the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have faced the Titans, Steelers and Bucs.  This is the chance for both offenses to open things up against the worst defenses that they will have faced yet.  The Broncos give up 23.3 PPG and 380 YPG and have injuries all over their defense, most notably to Miller, Casey and Bouye.  The Jets give up 31.3 PPG and 372 YPG and have just been gashed defensively.  This is a very low total for today’s NFL and there’s definitely some value with the OVER.  Take the OVER.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in the postseason.  They play great defense, have tremendous shooting, and have the go-to guy in Jimmy Butler to get it down down the stretch when the games are tight.  They match up well with the Lakers because they have guys who can handle Anthony Davis and LeBron James defensively.  And the Lakers just don’t have the depth outside those two superstars to match up with the Heat.  This line is way off in Game 1 tonight with the Heat catching 5 points.  Take Miami.

7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Minnesota Twins -160

The Key: The Minnesota Twins have edges everywhere over the Houston Astros, who got into the playoffs with a losing 29-31 record.  They especially have the edge on the rubber tonight with Kenta Maeda over Zack Greinke.  Maeda is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 11 starts this year, and 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in 5 home starts.  Zack Greinke is 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 12 starts, 0-2 with a 4.28 ERA in 5 road starts and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Greinke is 4-9 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 20 lifetime starts against the Twins.  The Twins are 23-7 at home this year.  The Astros are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.  Take Minnesota.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.