7* Ohio State/Michigan Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan -2.5 

The Key: Ohio State is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Big Ten road games this year with those 4 losses all coming by 12 points or more.  Their only conference road win came at terrible Northwestern.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Michigan. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas State +7.5 

The Key: Kansas State is 8-3 at home this year.  The Wildcats have been very impressive in their last 2 home games.  They beat West Virginia 84-67 as 7-point dogs and topped Oklahoma 61-53 as 2-point favorites.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games while playing about as difficult a schedule as you can play with WVU twice, Kansas, Alabama and Oklahoma.  They are now ready to try and take down the #1 team in the country in Baylor.  It will be a great atmosphere tonight and huge advantage for the Wildcats playing at home. Kansas State is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 matchups with Baylor, so they match up well with the Bears because of their physicality.  Take Kansas State. 

7* 76ers/Heat NBA TV *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are just 2-9 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.  That includes losses at Atlanta by 10, Boston by 21, Toronto by 12, Dallas by 18, Houston by 10 and Indiana by 18.  They haven’t even been close in some of these games.  And now they travel again to Miami during Super Bowl week and all those distractions to face a Heat team that is 21-3 SU at home this year.  The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games following a road game.  The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games when trying to avenge a road loss.  Take Miami.   

7* 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +1.5 

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers are the most compete team in the NFL this season and certainly deserve their spot in the Super Bowl.  They are 15-3 on the year and those 3 losses all came on the final play of the game.  And they battled through injuries all season and are now as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the year.  They buried both the Vikings and Packers early with a 27-10 win over the Vikings and a 27-0 lead over the Packers.  They are 4th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense this year.  They are 2nd in total defense this year.  They simply have no weaknesses.  The Chiefs have plenty of weaknesses that the 49ers can exploit.  Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t very good and won’t be able to handle the best D-Line in the NFL.  That’s going to make Mahomes’ job a lot harder as he faces San Francisco’s #1 ranked pass defense.  The Chiefs are weak defensively up the middle as they are 26th against the run and 28th in YPC (4.9) allowed.  The 49ers are 2nd in rushing offense and just rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 on the Packers, who rank similar to the Chiefs in run D stats.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning reocrd.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take San Francisco. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Mississippi State -5 

The Key: Mississippi State is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have gone 4-2 SU but 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.  Their only two losses both came on the road by a single point to LSU (59-60) and Oklahoma (62-63).  They also went on the road and beat Florida (78-71) as 6-point dogs.  And the Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home during this stretch with wins over Arkansas (77-70), Georgia (91-59) & Missouri (72-45) by an average of 22 PPG.  Now they’ll handle a down Tennessee team that just lost at home to Texas A&M (58-63) as 9.5-point favorites.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 matchups.  The Bulldogs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Pelicans failed to win and cover in their first two games with Zion Williamson. But they have since acclimated to having him in the lineup and have been dominant.  They beat the Celtics 123-108 at home as 1.5-point favorites and the Cavaliers 125-111 on the road as 8.5-point favorites.  Now they come in on 2 days’ rest and ready to take down the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Grizzlies will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. due to suspension and they certainly will miss him.  He averages 17.7 PPG.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.  New Orleans is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford -6.5 

The Key: Stanford is back home following a 3-game road trip where they lost their final 2 games by a combined 6 points.  They’re hungry and back home where they are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this year with their only loss coming to Kansas.  Now they face a struggling Oregon State team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  They haven’t even been very competitive with 4 losses by 6 points or more, including a 20-point home loss to USC and a 13-point road loss at Washington State.  Stanford is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 matchups with Oregon State with all 4 wins by 9 points or more.  The Cardinal are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 home games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington State +2.5 

The Key: Washington State is coming off 2 straight road losses and is now back home where it is 9-2 this season.  The Cougars have won their last 3 home games over UCLA, Oregon and Oregon State despite being underdogs in all 3.  And they won those 3 games all by 8 points or more.  Arizona State is coming off a huge 66-65 win over rival Arizona, setting the Sun Devils up for a letdown spot.  The Sun Devils are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road favorites.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs.  Take Washington State. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Golden State Warriors +12 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are in a tough situation tonight.  They just beat the Lakers in upset fashion, so they won’t be nearly as hungry to face the lowly Warriors tonight.  And this is a fresh Warriors team that comes in on 3 days’ rest.  The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Take Golden State. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Week on Miami Heat -6 

The Key: The Miami Heat have had the last 2 days off to rest and recover.  Now they host the Orlando Magic and are 20-2 at home this year.  The Magic don’t have the same rest luxury.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest, while the Magic are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on no rest.  Take Miami. 

7* Loyola-Chicago/Northern Iowa MVC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Iowa -4 

The Key: Northern Iowa lost both meetings with Loyola-Chicago by a single point last year. The Panthers want to avenge those losses and show that they are the new kings of the Missouri Valley with a win and cover Sunday.  Northern Iowa is 10-0 at home this year and winning by 15.4 PPG at home.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Panthers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take Northern Iowa. 

7* Mavs/Jazz NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Jazz have won 18 of their last 20 games overall.  The Jazz are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games.  Utah is 6-0 SU in its last 6 home matchups with Dallas.  Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Utah. 

7* MVC Game of the Month on Indiana State -2.5 

The Key: Indiana State is 7-0 at home this year and ready to take down Bradley.  The Braves have just 2 road wins this year over Missouri State and Evansville.  Indiana State has won 17 of its last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Braves could be without their top 2 scorers in Childs and Brown, who combine to average 28.4 PPG.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game.  Take Indiana State. 

7* Marquette/Butler Big East *HEAVY HITTER* on Butler -6 

The Key: The Butler Bulldogs opened 15-1 but have now lost 3 straight.  They’ll be hungry for a win tonight as they host the Marquette Golden Eagles.  Butler is 9-1 at home this year and winning by 18.0 PPG.  Marquette is 2-3 in true road games with losses to Wisconsin by 16, Creighton by 17 and Seton Hall by 14.  Butler is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home matchups with Marquette.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 years.  The Golden Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.  Take Butler. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 

The Key: The situation tonight favors the Cavaliers over the Wizards in a big way.  The Cavaliers are hungry for a win off 5 straight losses, but they’ve played 6 of their last 7 on the road.  They are rested and recovered by now having been off since Monday.  The Wizards are a tired team playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Making matters worse is that they had to go to overtime against Miami last night.  They gave up 134 points to the Heat and are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after allowing at least 130 points.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -3.5 

The Key: The Pelicans are 10-4 SU & 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  And their 4 losses came to the Lakers, Clippers (by 3), Jazz (by 2) and Celtics.  And now the Pelicans get Zion Williamson making his season debut in what will be a tremendous atmosphere in New Orleans.  Plus Jrue Holiday just returned and scored 36 points in his first game back from injury in a 126-116 win at Memphis last time out.  The Spurs are 7-13 on the road this year.  San Antonio is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off a win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Purdue -5.5 

The Key: Purdue is 15-0 in its last 15 Big Ten home games and 6-0 in its last 6 home games against ranked teams.  The Boilermakers have had this game circled for a few weeks now because they already lost 37-63 at Illinois in their worst performance of the season.  Now they get the Fighting Illini at home where they have been unbeatable.  They just beat Michigan State by 29 in their last home game to flash their potential.  Purdue has won its last 7 home matchups with Illinois by 12.1 PPG.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a defeat.  Take Purdue. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets +4.5 

The Key: The Hornets have had the last 4 days off having last played on Wednesday.  The Magic will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 6th straight road game.  The situation really favors the Hornets, who needed the break after a very difficult schedule that has seen them be a dog of 6.5 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games.  Bets against any team that’s off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 38-14 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Charlotte. 

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -7 

The Key: The Chiefs dominated the first meeting with the Titans but found a way to lose 32-35.  That won’t happen again in the rematch, especially since it’s being played at Arrowhead Stadium.  And now the Chiefs feel invincible after coming back from 24-0 down to win 51-31 over the Texans last week.  The Chiefs outgained the Titans 530 to 371 in their first meeting.  Those kinds of numbers would usually result in a double-digit blowout.  The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall winning by 17 PPG.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +2 

The Key: Big Ten home teams have dominated.  The home teams are 36-6 SU and Penn State is a home underdog to Ohio State when they shouldn’t be today.  The Buckeyes are 0-3 in Big Ten road games while losing by 12.5 PPG.  Ohio State beat Penn State at home earlier this season, so that means the Nittany Lions are out for revenge.  They are also hungry for a win because they are coming off 3 straight losses.  Ohio State shot 54% from 3 in that first meeting with Penn State and that’s not going to happen again.  The Buckeyes are only shooting 29% from 3 in Big Ten road games this year.  The Buckeyes are 1-10 ATS in January games over the last 2 years.  The Nittany Lions are 14-3 ATS off 2 straight games with 12 or fewer assists over the last 3 years.  The Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog.  Take Penn State. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Heat/Thunder OVER 216 

The Key: With Stephen Adams knocked out of their last game with a knee injury in the first quarter, the Oklahoma City Thunder went on to lose to the Toronto Raptors 121-130 in a game that saw 251 combined points.  They have to go small ball without Adams, which favors the OVER.  The Heat are 8-0 OVER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings with combined scores of 223 and 220 points.  Take the OVER. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans +5 

The Key: The Pelicans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Jazz have won 10 straight, but their closest win was a 128-126 victory at New Orleans just 10 days ago.  The Pelicans haven’t forgotten and will be hungry to avenge that defeat and end Utah’s winning streak.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Missouri State -2 

The Key: Bradley is without its best player in Elijah Childs.  The Braves have been able to weather the storm without him against a weak schedule by going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  I think it’s time to fade them now in this tough situation on the road at Missouri State.  The Bears are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home matchups with Bradley.  The Bears are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State. 

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Brooklyn Nets +3.5 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are healthy for basically the first time this season.  It’s not wonder they have won impressively in their last two games to end a 7-game losing streak.  They upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and crushed the Hawks by 22 as 9-point home favorites.  Now they welcome the hot Utah Jazz, who have won 9 straight and 14 of their last 15.  This just feels like a spot where the Jazz go down.  They were down by double-digits at halftime to the Wizards on the road last time out and came back.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Nets tonight.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3.5 to -3.5 after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their last game are 25-6 ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.  Take Brooklyn. 

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Seahawks/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -4 

The Key: No write up Sunday. On vacation. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Vikings/49ers OVER 44 

The Key: No write up.  On vacation. 

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Phoenix Suns -3 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are hungry for a win.  They had the last 2 days off and are primed for a big effort tonight against the Orlando Magic.  The Magic will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Now they are without D.J. Augustin, Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu and could also be without Aaron Gordon, who is questionable with a calf injury.  The Suns are fully healthy outside role player Kaminski.  The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more.  Take Phoenix. 

7* Celtics/76ers Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -2 

The Key: The Celtics will be playing for a second straight night and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are starting to wear down as they lost at Washington as 9-point favorites and lost to the Spurs by 15 as home favorites.  The 76ers come in on 2 days rest and are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against the Celtics this year with wins at home and on the road.  The 76ers are 17-2 at home this season I like the price we are getting with them as only 2-point favorites.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Nuggets/Mavs ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Dallas Mavericks as a short home favorite over the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets have lost by 26 at Houston and by 14 at Washington as 13-point favorites in recent road games.  And I don’t expect them to hang with the Mavericks for four quarters tonight.  The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  The Mavericks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  The Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home matchups.  Take Dallas. 

7* Ohio State/Maryland Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Maryland -2.5 

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Maryland Terrapins are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Ohio State Buckeyes.  The Terrapins are 9-0 at home this year and just beat Indiana by 16 and Notre Dame by 21 recently at home.  Ohio State is not playing well. They lost by 8 on a neutral to West Virginia and were upset by Wisconsin as 7.5-point home favorites in their last 2 games.  Maryland won both meetings with Ohio State by 14 on the road and by 10 at home last year.  The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.  The Terrapins are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home meetings with Ohio State.  Take Maryland. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Wild Card Total of the Year on Seahawks/Eagles UNDER 45 

The Key: It’s hard to believe the books have set this total this high when you look at all the injuries to both offenses.  The Seahawks had Gordon suspended, are missing at least their top 2 running backs and could be without 2 starting offensive linemen.  Their offense has been broken in recent weeks because of it.  They scored 12 on the Rams, 13 on the Cardinals and 21 on the 49ers in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Eagles’ injury situation is worse.  They are without Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and could be without Zach Ertz again this week.  I think we see a similar game to the 17-9 final for 26 combined points that the Eagles and Seahawks just played earlier this season.  I like that they’ve already played each other this year because that familiarity favors the defenses.  The Eagles are 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Eagles last 10 playoff home games and 16-5 UNDER int heir last 21 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bills/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 

The Key: We’re getting the Houston Texans pretty cheap here in a game they basically just have to win to cover at home.  The Bills haven’t done well when they have stepped up in class.  They are 1-4 against playoff teams this year with their only win coming against the Titans when Marcus Mariota was their quarterback.  The Texans have gone 3-3 against playoff teams with wins over the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans.  One of their losses was to the Titans when they rested their starters in Week 17.  They should be fresh and ready to go, plus they get back JJ Watt and a few others from injury that makes them a stronger team going into the playoffs.  Bets on teams when the line is +3 to -3 who are a good passing team at 6.7-7.3 YPA against an average passing team 5.9-6.7 YPA after gaining 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston. 

7* Big East Game of the Month on Seton Hall -6.5 

The Key: Suspensions and injuries have really decimated the Georgetown Hoyas.  It showed up in their 16-point loss against Providence last time out as they were without Mac McClung and his 15.5 PPG and could be without him again.  Seton Hall just got Myles Powell back from injury, a National Player of the Year candidate.  The Pirates swiftly beat DePaul 74-66 on the road.  They also recently beat Maryland as 7-point dogs at home without Powell, so they’ve shown they are more than just a one-trick pony.  The Pirates are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.  Take Seton Hall. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming. 

7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games.  But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force.  The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky.  I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year.  WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense.  I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs.  The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss.  Take Western Michigan. 

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants +4 

The Key: The New York Giants are playing well here in their last 3 games and would like to knock the NFC East rival Eagles out of the playoffs.  The Giants are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They won 36-20 at home over the Dolphins and 41-35 on the road at the Redskins.  Daniel Jones was great as the Giants had 552 total yards on the Redskins last week.  And now the Giants want to avenge their only loss here down the stretch, a 17-23 (OT) loss at Philadelphia.  Now the Giants get the Eagles at home and are catching 4 points.  It’s a depleted Eagles team that will be without Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and several others.  Bets against favorites who are off an upset win as a home dog that win 51% to 60% of their games when playing a losing team are 26-5 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 

The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country.  Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year.  There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses.  Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case.  Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same.  Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games.  Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30.  Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 

The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State.  The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here.  Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams.  Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule.  Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury.  Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year.  Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory.  Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread.  Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan.  The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games.  I’d argue EMU has the better offense.  The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller.  The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog.  Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* Clippers/Lakers ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Lakers -2 

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Clippers 102-112 in their opener in their first and only meeting this year.  Now it’s revenge time for the Lakers.  This team has come a long way since that loss as they sit at 24-6 on the season.  But they are coming off 3 straight losses, so they are very hungry right now for a win.  Lebron James and Anthony Davis are both expected to play in this game after LeBron sat out last game.  The Clippers are just 8-8 on the road this season.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who outscore their opponents by 6 or more points per game after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1996.  Take the Los Angeles Lakers. 

7* BYU/Hawaii Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -2 

The Key: BYU played a tougher schedule than Hawaii and I trust them more to win this game from what I’ve seen from both teams.  BYU went 2-2 against Top 30 teams with wins over USC and Boise State, while Hawaii went 0-3 against Top 30 teams.  BYU also beat Tennessee on the road and thumped Utah State 42-14 on the road.  That’s a Utah State team that is probably just as good as Hawaii in the Mountain West.  Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss as the coach of Hawaii.  Take BYU. 

7* Packers/Vikings NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -4.5 

The Key: The numbers show the Vikings are the better team than the Packers despite having the worse record.  Well, the Vikings can pull even with the Packers for 1st place in the NFC North with a win.  They would still need some help next week, but first things first, and I think they handle their business at home tonight.  The Packers are 21st in offense while the Vikings are 10th in offense.  The Packers are 22nd in defense and the Vikings are 14th in defense.  The Vikings have outscored the opposition by 119 points this year, while the Packers have only outscored their opponents by 47 points.  Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 home games and 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 7 or less.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Minnesota. 

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Oakland Raiders +7.5 

The Key: The Chargers can’t be trusted to lay 7.5 points to the Raiders.  The Chargers aren’t a team that wins or loses many blowouts.  Though they did get worked 10-39 by the Vikings last week.  The Raiders had a bad loss to the Jaguars that they deserved to win.  But that has gotten us some extra value on them this week.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Raiders have more fans attend this game.  The Chargers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Los Angeles is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite.  The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Los Angeles.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6.5 

The Key: The Rams lost all hope of making the playoffs last week with their 44-21 loss to the Cowboys.  Now they’ll be officially eliminated after getting blasted by the 49ers for a 2nd time this year.  The 49ers won 20-7 on the road and held the Rams to just 165 total yards.  Now they’ll win by more than a touchdown at home today.  The 49ers will be hungry after their upset loss to the Falcons last week, which was predictable given the spot off 3 straight huge games and with the Rams and Seahawks on deck.  Now the 49ers can’t afford a loss if they want to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Kent State/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Kent State +7 

The Key: Teams that had 3 or fewer wins the previous season and made a bowl game have gone 16-2 ATS in their bowl games over the last 3 years.  Kent State is a qualifier.  The Golden Flashes overcame the odds and pulled out 3 straight upsets to close the season to get to 6-6.  They obviously want to be here.  I don’t think the same can be said for Utah State, which won 11 games last year and dropped to 7 wins this year.  6-6 teams in general have gone 60% ATS since 2000 in bowls and 6-6 teams off a win as an underdog have gone 70% ATS since 2000.  Take Kent State. 

7* Lakers/Bucks TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4 

The Key: The Bucks are 24-4 and 13-2 at home this year.  The Lakers will be without Kyle Kuzma and could be without Anthony Davis tonight.  It’s a tough situation for the Lakers, who have will be playing their 5th straight road game and their 12th road games in their last 15 games overall.  It is starting to wear on them as they barely escaped with a win at Atlanta before losing at Indiana in their last 2 games coming in.  The Bucks are 18-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Bucks are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games off a loss.  The Bucks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Lakers and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings overall.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Denver Nuggets -9.5 

The Key: The situation could not possibly be worse for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They’ll be playing in altitude for the second straight night after losing 102-109 in Utah last night.  Now they’ll have nothing left in the tank for the Denver Nuggets tonight.  Denver comes in on 2 days’ rest and having won three straight home games to improve to 11-3 at home this year.  They had the best home record in the NBA last year.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 trips to Denver.  The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Denver. 

7* Florida/Providence ESPN 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -4.5 

The Key: The Florida Gators have won 4 of their last 5 with their only setback coming at Butler.  The Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Providence Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall with a ton of ugly performances.  The Friars already have 5 upset losses this year.  They have played an easy schedule as they have been favored in every single game and have come up way short of expectations.  And this number is too short tonight against the best team they’ve played yet in the Gators.  Take Florida. 

7* Colts/Saints NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +10 

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts don’t get blown out often.  They are still alive for the playoffs and will give the Saints all they can handle.  The Colts are 6-7 but only have one loss by more than 7 points this year, which was their 14-point loss to the Titans a few weeks back in a game they dominated up until having a blocked FG returned for a TD.  The Saints already have the NFC South title locked up and won’t be all that hungry here to finish the season.  Bets against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games that win 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-12 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Indianapolis. 

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Tennessee. 

7* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Denver Nuggets -6.5 

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have the Oklahoma City Thunder’s number.  They have won 8 of the last 9 meetings while going a perfect 9-0 against the spread.  Last year, the Nuggets won all 4 meetings by 7 points or more.  Take Denver. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New Orleans Pelicans +8 

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and it will also be their 5th game in 7 days.  They won’t have much in the tank for the Pelicans tonight.  I like the price we are getting with the Pelicans because they have lost 10 straight, so oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Jets/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +17 

The Key: The New York Jets have won 4 of their last 5 games and should not be catching 17 points against the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a good matchup for the Jets, who lead the NFL in giving up just 3.0 YPC and only 78.8 RYPG.  The Ravens lead the league in rushing, so it is strength against strength.  And the Jets get a hobbled Lamar Jackson who is nursing a quad injury, so the Ravens won’t be as potent as they have been in the past.  The 49ers held them to 20 points and the Bills held them to 24 points while both teams held them to near season lows in yardage.  The Jets will have success defensively against them, and Sam Darnold is playing some of the best football of his career during this 4-1 stretch.  Take New York. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets +10 

The Key: The Charlotte Hornets have already lost to the Brooklyn Nets by 10 and by 7 in 2 earlier meetings this season.  Now these teams will be matching up for the 3rd time in 3 weeks.  I can’t see the Hornets going down without a fight.  They are playing for a 2nd straight day but are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on no rest.  Take Charlotte. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Northern Iowa +9 

The Key: The Northern Iowa Panthers are probably the best team in the MVC this year.  They made the MVC title game last year and are off to an 8-1 start this year.  They have covered the spread in 6 of their 7 line games this season.  Their only loss came by 5 points to West Virginia on the road in a game they led almost the entire way.  They will go on the road here and stay within 9 points of Colorado as well.  The Buffaloes are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas on Saturday and only have 2 days to get ready for the Panthers.  Northern Iowa has had 7 days to get ready for Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Northern Iowa. 

7* Giants/Eagles NFC East *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: Weather is expected to be a factor in Philadelphia tonight in this NFC East rivalry game with the New York Giants.  There is a good chance for rain and winds will be around 13 miles per hour.  The Giants will be more restricted offensively with Eli Manning returning to the lineup in place of Daniel Jones.  This Giants defense is playing better of late in giving up just 294 yards to the Jets, 335 yards to the Bears and 322 yards to the Packers in their last 3 games overall.  The Eagles still have an elite defense that has yielded 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  They yield just 18 PPG at home this year and score only 21.3 PPG.  The Giants managed just 19.2 PPG on the season.  Philadelphia is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 games after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games after allowing 6.5 YPP or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 YPG or more.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the UNDER. 

7* 49ers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +2.5 

The Key: The 49ers are the better team in this matchup with the Saints and the numbers show it.  Wrong team favored here.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 127 YPG, while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 38 YPG.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in total defense and 1st in the NFL against the pass.  They have a dominant defensive line that will give the Saints’ banged-up offensive line troubles.  The Saints are without 2 starters on the O-Line and could be without a 3rd.  That’s not what you want when you’re up against the best defensive line in the NFL.  The 49ers are 5-1 on the road this year with their only loss coming at Baltimore by 3 points.  That effort showed they could play with anyone.  I like that the 49ers stayed in Florida after the Ravens game so they won’t have all that travel in between games.  When teams meet at a location to get ready for a game the next week, they usually come out and play well.  The Saints are 0-6 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  Bets on road dogs off a close road loss by 3 points or less in the final 4 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 1983.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* Cowboys/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in offense and 8th in defense.  They sit at 6-6, but they are a sleeping giant because of their record.  They are way better than they’ve shown record-wise, and I think that comes to fruition tonight as the Cowboys blast the Bears.  This is a Bears team that has struggled to put away the Giants and the Lions the last two weeks.  And now they’ll meet their match in the Cowboys here tonight.  The Bears are 29th in offense and 7th in defense.  Their offense just cannot be trusted.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding 350-plus yard in their previous game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Kings/Blazers NBA *BAILOUT* on Portland -4 

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming on the road against the Clippers.  I know they played the Clippers last night, but they had 3 days off prior to that game, so they won’t be as tired as normal on a back-to-back.  The Kings have lost 3 of their last 4 and are finally coming back down to reality after an ATS tear.  They are without Fox and Bagley and could be without Bogdanovic tonight, 3 of their best players.  The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road dog of 0.5 to 4.5.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games off a loss by more than 10 points.  The Blazers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home meetings with the Kings.  Take Portland. 

7* Mavs/Pelicans TNT *Total* Annihilator on OVER 232 

The Key: These teams combined for 239 points in their first meeting this season and it will be more of the season tonight.  The Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 116.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans play at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA and are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  These teams have combined for at least 238 points in 4 of their last 5 meetings.  The OVER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are the better team in this matchup with the Seahawks and should not be underdogs.  The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7 and 6 of their 8 wins this year have come by at least 10 points, so they haven’t been getting lucky in close games like the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 9-2 this year but 8 of those wins have come by one score.  They are 8-1 in one-score games this year, which is hard to keep up.  Mike Zimmer has 2 weeks to get ready for Russell Wilson as the Vikings are coming off their bye week.  Wilson has only averaged 161 passing yards per game in his 3 lifetime starts against Zimmer’s Vikings.    The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Their 3 home wins this year have come by 1, 1 and 6 points with that 6-point win coming in overtime over the Bucs.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Pats/Texans AFC *BAILOUT* on OVER 46 

The Key: The Patriots will finally get their offense going this week after three straight weeks against good defenses in the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys.  Not to mention the Eagles and Cowboys games were played in terrible weather.  It will be perfect conditions in Houston tonight for a high-scoring affair.  The Patriots have a good chance of getting both Sanu and Dorsett back at receiver after both players missed last week.  And the Texans have one fo the best offenses in the NFL when Will Fuller is healthy, which he is.  They basically have two #1 WR’s who are tough to tame.  Houston is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off 3 consecutive under.  The Texans are 30-15 OVER in their last 45 games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints.  They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL.  And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs.  Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points.  The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7.  They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Bulls/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on Chicago -2.5 

The Key: The Bulls will be hungry for a win tonight after losing badly to the Blazers last game.  They have the perfect opponent to get on track tonight.  The Warriors are 3-15 this season and just can’t overcome all the massive injuries they’ve accumulated.  The Warriors are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  The Warriors are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record.  Take Chicago. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 

The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight.  The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own.  The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week.  The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 

The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage.  After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday.  Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season.  The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary.  The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year.  Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb.  The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Rhode Island -6 

The Key: Rhode Island returned all 5 starters this year and is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Rams are 3-1 this year with their only loss coming at No. 6 Maryland.  They beat Alabama 93-79 at home and will handle North Texas.  UNT is 2-3 this year with its only wins against Oklahoma Christian and UNC A&T.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan outright as 9-point favorites, were blown out by 23 at Arkansas, and also lost at VCU.  UNT is 0-8 ATS against teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last 2 years.  UNT is 6-15 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 2 years.  UNT is 1-9 ATS off an ATS win over the last 2 years.  Take Rhode Island. 

7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football.  That’s why I trust them more than the Texans.  They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line.  The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week.  The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense.  Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle.  And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams.  The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Jazz/Timberwolves UNDER 222 

The Key: This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  The Jazz and Timberwolves are playing a home-and-home here after the Minnesota beat Utah 112-102 on the road Monday night.  That game saw 214 combined points, and now the total is 222 in the rematch in Minnesota.  I think it’s too high, and now that these teams are familiar with one another, points will be hard to come by tonight.  Utah is 25-8 UNDER off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more and 20-5 UNDER off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 points or more.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Jazz last 16 games overall, 6-1 in Jazz last 7 road games, and 8-0 in Jazz last 8 games playing on one days rest.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NCAAB Game of the Week on Furman +4.5 

The Key: Furman is a team in line to make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid.  They are neck and neck with East Tennessee State as the top two teams in the Southern Conference.  Furman went 25-8 last year and returns 4 starters from that squad, all who averaged anywhere from 8.8 PPG to 16.2 PPG.  Furman is 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this year with road wins over Gardner Webb as 5-point favorites and Charleston Southern (by 44) as 7-point favorites as well as a blowout home win over Loyola-Chicago (by 24) as 4.5-point favorites.  Those results and margin of victory show that this team in for real.  Alabama is rebuilding under first-year head coach Nate Oats.  The Crimson Tide are 1-2 this season with an upset home loss to Pennsylvania and an upset road loss at Rhode Island by 14.  Wrong team favored here as Furman is probably the best team they will have faced yet.  Furman is 21-5 ATS in its last 26 against a team with a losing record.  Furman is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games.  Take Furman. 

7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 

The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game.  I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission.  The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans.  Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently.  They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers.  Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them.  The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019.  The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years.  The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 

The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago.  But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final.  The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge.  The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year.  I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road.  Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.  And they’re not buying into them this week either.  We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins.  The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Miami. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 

The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season.  The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team.  The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year.  The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 

The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday.  On vacation. 

7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Pacers UNDER 211 

The Key: The Pistons and Pacers square off for a 3rd time already this season.  They only combined for 190 points in their last meeting on October 28th.  Points will be hard to come by again in this rematch because both teams have the injury bug right now to almost all of their key scorers.  The Pistons are without Griffin, Jackson and Rose.  The Pacers are without Oladipo and Lamb and Turner is questionable.  Indiana is 8-0 UNDER when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last 3 years.  Indiana is 20-4 UNDER at home with a total of 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 

The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running.  The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games.  The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team.  I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday.  The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Oakland. 

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +4 

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing for a second consecutive day and their 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pacers also played an overtime game against the Hornets last night.  The Wizards had yesterday off and have been competitive in every game by one this year.  That’s a big reason why the Wizards are 5-1 ATS and rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The road team has covered 19 of the last 26 meetings in this series.  The Wizards are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.  Take Washington. 

7* Kansas/Duke NCAAB *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas -2 

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils lost Zion, Barrett and Redish to the NBA.  They won’t be as talented as they were last year, and they certainly won’t be hitting on all cylinders to start the season with so many freshmen.  The Kansas Jayhawks are a more veteran team than they normally are.  They have 3 starters back, a healthy Udoka Azubuike, and got the great news that Silvio De Sousa will be eligible.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Duke.  Take Kansas. 

7* Cowboys/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 

The Key: The Giants want to avenge their season opening loss to the hated Cowboys on the road.  The Cowboys were 7-point home favorites in that game, and now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  That’s essentially a 6-point adjustment since the start of the season when you adjust for home-field advantage and I believe it’s too much.  The Giants have been a lot more competitive since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback.  They only have 2 losses by more than 6 points in Jones’ 6 starts this year and those came against the Vikings and Patriots.  And they had a bunch of injuries in those 2 games, but are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  The Giants will be able to stay within a touchdown of the Cowboys at home tonight and could pull off the upset.  After all, the Cowboys lost outright to the Jets as 7-point favorites in their last road game.  Take New York. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -4 

The Key: The Browns have played one of the toughest schedules (4th) in the NFL this season.  They have a great chance to make up some ground in the AFC North starting with a win Sunday at the lowly Denver Broncos.  It’s a Broncos team that is 2-6 on the season and will now be without Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future.  They are forced to start Brandon Allen at quarterback.  I can’t see that going very well for Allen, especially since the Broncos have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while the Browns have a solid pass rush.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Miami/Florida State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -3 

The Key: Both Miami and Florida State are 4-4 this season and in the midst of disappointing years.  However, the biggest difference is that Florida State (32nd) has played the tougher schedule than Miami (63rd).  And Florida State looks like a much better team with Alex Hornibrook as their starter.  Hornibrook has been a lot better than James Blackman.  Hornibrook is completing 68.4% of his passes averaging 8.7 YPA and has 6 touchdowns against only one interception.  Miami 17-12 win over Central Michigan at home as 30.5-point favorites showed everything you need to know about this team.  They went on to get upset by VA Tech at home as 14-point favorites the next week.  They were lucky to beat both Virginia and Pitt as they were outgained in both of those contests.  And they were also upset by Georgia Tech as 18.5-point home favorites.  This team just isn’t very good, especially offensively as they are playing musical chairs at quarterback.  The Seminoles are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Take Florida State. 

7* Navy/UConn NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 54 

The Key: The Navy Midshipmen have one of the most explosive offenses they’ve ever had this season.  They are scoring 37.9 PPG this season and it’s a big reason why they are 6-1.  They should be able to name their score against a soft Connecticut defense that yields 37.7 PPG on the year.  The Huskies have showed some offensive punch this season scoring at least 21 points in 5 of their 8 games, including 56 against UMass last week.  I think they can get to 21 here as well to help out this OVER.  The OVER is 6-1 in Navy’s last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER. 

7* 49ers/Cardinals NFC Total of the Month on OVER 43 

The Key: The 49ers will cover the majority of this total on their own.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and will shred an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in giving up 27.9 PPG and 407 YPG.  The Cardinals at least have a decent offense under Kliff Kingsbury and will get some points themselves.  This has the makings of somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30-20 final.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season are 40-14 since 1983.  Take the OVER. 

7* Suns/Warriors NBA *BAILOUT* on OVER 229 

The Key: The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors both like to get up and down the floor as both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.  Both teams also rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency, and the Warriors are dead last in defensive efficiency.  The Suns rank well on defense right now, but that’s not going to last.  The Suns are scoring 114 PPG, the Warriors are scoring 116 PPG, and the Warriors are giving up 128 PPG.  Teams are shooting 54.2% on this soft Warriors defense.  These teams have combined for at least 224 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings.  The OVER is 7-1 in Suns last 8 games off a loss.  The OVER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings at Golden State.  Take the OVER.