David's 5% FLA/HOU NCAAB Championship *BEST BET*

We really like the Cougars in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering Houston just took down the nation’s No. 1 team with a legendary comeback and now rides an 18-game win streak into the title game. With the best defense in the country and elite three-point shooting, this feels like the year Houston finally breaks through.  

This is a 5% play on Cougars on the moneyline.   

David's Top-rated 5% Gators/Tigers NCAAB *BEST BET*

We really like the Gators in this matchup. The line looks mispriced, considering Auburn may have had too easy of a path to the Final Four to be fully prepared for what Florida will bring. The Gators got a wake-up call after being pushed to overtime by Texas Tech in the last round, and we think that experience will have them more ready for this showdown. After falling to Florida 90-81 in the regular season, Auburn fans better prepare for another setback.

This is a 5% play on the Gators.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the all four games went over on Friday. These totals appear to be a bit inflated based on some high scoring games in the early rounds. Texas Tech and Florida playing on short rest, tired legs might be missing some shots. If the Red Raiders didn't go to OT with Arkansas, it would have been an under in regulation.

This is a 5* play on Under.

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Blazers have won back to back road games against quality opponents (Santa Clara and St. Joe's) while the Ant Eaters have played at home against lesser competition. Their win over Jacksonville State by a score of 66-61 was rather underwhelming. UAB was the highest scoring team in the AAC and boast a lineup loaded with seniors. We will take the points.

This is a 5* play on UAB.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Ducks held Liberty to 52 points, while Arizona held Akron to 65 points. These teams played on March 15th 2024, and the final score was 67-59 for Oregon. The Ducks have gone under in eight of their last 10 games. The under is 9-3 in Arizona's last 12 games in the month of March.

This is a 10* play on Under.

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Spartans are ranked #8 nationally by Ken Pom, 34 spots higher than New Mexico. Mountain West teams came into this tournament with a record of 26-53 ATS. Michigan State ranks 3rd in the BIG10 allowing just 67 points per game.

This is a 10* play on MSU.

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that Kentucky ranks Top 20 nationally according to Ken Pom, 78 spots higher than Troy. The Wildcats have covered in five straight games as a favorite. Thursday six teams were favored by double digits, and all six teams won by double digits.

This is a 10* play on UK.

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that while both teams come in as winners of 9-of-10, the Cougars strength of schedule is simply not comparable. The Cougars rank 1st in the BIG12 in FG% and 3rd in three point percentage. Given the elite defenses they would face in the BIG12, it becomes quite clear that the sharp shooting of BYU gives them a measurable advantage.

This is a 10* play on BYU.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that American plays at a snail's pace, averaging just 65.6 possessions per game (358th). These two teams are quite familiar with each other, and they have a history of playing low scoring games. Mount St. Mary's has failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10, and American has gone under in seven of their last 10.

This is a 10* play on Under.

We really like the Under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that there were four BIG10 Tournament games yesterday, and three of those four went under. UCLA owns the top scoring defense in the conference allowing just 65 points per game. The last time Wisconsin faced such a defense they were held to just 62 points in a loss to Michigan State. 

This is a 3* play on the Under.

We really like the Underdog in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these teams have already played twice this season, and St. Mary's won both games. Their win at Gonzaga in the most recent meeting was even more convincing than the previous game at home. They also won 2 of 3 meetings last year, including the WCC Tournament Final. A clear case of a false favorite here.

This is a 10* play on SMC.

We really like the Over in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these teams have combined to score 170+ points in both regular season meetings this season. The final score in both games was almost identical, 95-75 and 95-76. Gonzaga leads the conference in scoring, averaging 87.6 points per game. San Francisco averages 76 points per game. All four meetings the last two seasons have gone over the number. 

This is a 10* play on Over.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these teams have failed to reach the total in three of the last four meetings at Tulane. The one game that went over had a total of 140.5., and they combined to score 147 points, well short of the total for today's game. The Green Wave are 2nd in the AAC in scoring defense, holding opponents for fewer than 70 points per game.

This is a 5* play on Under.

We really like the Under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Bruins played the Trojans earlier this season and the total fell below 120 combined points. The total looks inflated considering that each of the previous 10 head to head meetings had a total listed below 140. The Bruins have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games versus USC.

This is a 10* play on Under.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Wolverines are tied for first place with Michigan State, and their only home loss this season came against the 1st place Spartans. Illinois has lost four of it's last five road games, and is just 1-4 ATS in the last five overall. The Wolverines should move to 14-1 in Ann Arbor on Sunday.

This is a 10* play on Michigan ML.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these are two teams that play very different styles. This is a expected to be a pace war, as Alabama plays the fastest pace in the country. Tennessee ranks 312th nationally averaging 67.5 possessions per game, but they have averaged 65.6 possessions over their last five games. The home team should dictate pace here.

This is a 10* play on BAMA/TEN Under 159.5

We really like the under in this matchup. The price looks a off when you consider that the Wolfpack are 0-9 on the road this season. They have lost 12-0 since the end of last season. Georgia Tech is still pretty strong at home, winning 12-of-17. The Yellow Jackets should come out hot here at home.

This is a 10* play on GT.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these are two of the slowest teams in the country. Both teams have played even slower over their past few games. UCLA ranks 1st in the conference in opponent's scoring average, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 overall. Purdue off four straight losses is going to be tight as well.

This is a 10* play on UCLA@PUR Under 141

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Tribe are just 4-10 on the road. Towson is now in first place in the CAA, and they are 10-1 on their home floor. William & Mary are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. Towson has won 13 of their last 14 games overall, and they are 5-1 in their last six versus William and Mary.

This is a 10* play on TOWSON.

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that these are two of the top three defenses in the BIG10. They have gone under historically, trending at 7-3 to the under in the last 10 meetings. The total here of 150.5 is far higher than it was in any of the previous 10. The highest total we saw in any of those games was 140. The Spartans just held Michigan to 62 points in Ann Arbor.

This is a 10* play on MSU@MD Under 150.5

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Cyclones were missing their top two scorers in the loss against Houston, and their status remains in question. Iowa State has held it's last six opponents to 70 or less. These teams have gone under in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and the total tonight is higher than it was in any of those games. 

This is a 10* play on ISU@OKST Under 149.5

We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Bruins own the BIG10's best scoring defense, and they rank 15th in the conference in scoring. The last time the Buckeyes played at UCLA they won 67-60. The under is 4-0 in the Bruins last four home games. 

This is a 5* play on Under.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a off when you consider that the Wolfpack are 10-4 at home while Boise State has lost five of eight on the road. Boise State are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Nevada. Nevada are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

This is a 5* play on NEV.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The price looks a little off when you consider that the Cowboys are 9-3 in Stillwater. UCF has lost seven of nine on the road, and they are 1-8 in their last nine overall. They didn't have senior guard Jordan Ivy-Curry in their last game against Colorado, and his status is still in question. After getting blown out by the last place team in the BIG12, you would think it's a tough ask for the Knights here playing a back to back road game.

This is a 5* play on OKST.

We really like the Under in this matchup. The number looks a little high when you consider that these teams played in January and combined for just 115 total points. They have gone under in regulation in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The Southern Jags rank 1st in the SWAC in scoring defense. We expect them to shut down Tex Southern.

This is a 4* play on Under.

We really like the Under in this matchup. The number looks a little high when you consider that these teams played in Memphis and scored just 114 points. Memphis scores a lot more at home than they do on the road, and Wichita plays a very slow paced strong defensive style. The under is 7-3 in the Shockers last 10 overall.

This is a 10* play on Under.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Red Wolves are the best team in the Sun Belt. They have the edge in experience with a starting lineup full of Seniors. Arkansas State are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Troy are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Arkansas State

This is a 10* play on ARKST.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Panthers are 9-2 at home while the Raiders have lost 8 of 11 on the road. The Panthers won by 16-points at Wright State just a few weeks ago. The Panthers are ranked 45 spots higher than Wright State in Ken Pom's national rankings.

This is a 10* play on WISC-MIL

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Tribe are undefeated at home this season with a 10-0 record. Hofstra comes in as losers of 6 of 10 road games. The Tribe rarely win on the road, but won by 18-points at Hofstra in January.

This is a 10* play on CWM. 

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Minutemen have covered in seven of their last nine games. Davidson has not played well this season, sitting near the bottom of the conference standings, two games back of UMASS. Davidson has two wins in their last seven games, both coming against last place Richmond.

This is a 4% play on UMASS.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Mustangs lead the ACC in scoring averaging 83 points per game. Pitt has lost four of their last five road games, with the win coming at Syracuse. The Mustangs are 10-3 at home.

This is a 5% play on SMU.

We really like the over in this matchup. The number looks a little low when you consider that the Temple Owls rank dead last in the conference in scoring defense. This is a revenge game for Memphis after losing 88-81 at Temple. Don't be shocked if Memphis scores in triple digits here.

This is a 10% play on over in TEM@MEM.

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The line looks a little low when you consider Arizona has only lost one game in conference play, and tonight's game is a revenge spot against the only BIG12 team that has beat them. It could be a tough spot for Texas Tech if Toppin is still less than 100 percent with an ankle injury.

This is a 10% play on Arizona ML.

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks inflated when you consider that the Johnnies have only lost 1 game by just 1 point in 12 conference games in the Big East this season. They have lost three games overall by a combined 5 points. UCONN is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings.

This is a 10% play on St. Johns's plus the points.

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks inflated when you consider that the Tommies are 8-1 in the conference, and they have already beaten South Dakota State. They also have a road win at North Dakota State. It actually looks like this might be a case of the wrong team favored.

This is a 10% play on the Tommies plus the points.

We really like the home underdog in this matchup. The line looks inflated when you consider that the Scarlet Knights only lost by three points at home to Michigan their last time out, and that came after a road win at Northwestern and a 7-point home loss to Michigan State.

This is a 10% play on Rutgers plus the points.

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that this could be a trap game for Robert Morris after six consecutive wins and covers against the spread, a run that started with a 75-72 win over Wright State on Jan 12. Tonight, the Raiders get their revenge. 

This is a 5% play on the Raiders on the spread. 

David's Top-rated 5% FLA/TEN NCAAB *TOTAL OF THE WEEK*

We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that both teams have consistently trended toward the under this season, and their last three meetings have all stayed under the total, including a 73-43 Florida win on January 7. With both teams emphasizing defense, another low-scoring affair looks likely.

This is a 5% play on the under.  

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *TOTAL OF THE WEEK*

We really like the over in this matchup. The line is highly influenced by Portland State's 5-1 run fueled by strong defense, but Montana has been shooting the ball well, and our numbers say that this total is set too low. 

This is a 5% play on the over. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB SEC *TOTAL OF THE YEAR*

We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Vols have held three of their last four opponents to 56 points or fewer, but they've also lost their scoring touch of late, and Kentucky has also been going through a rough patch, coming off a pair of losses.  

This is a 5% play on the under 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line is highly influenced by the Aggies 0-3 run against the spread while Ole Miss has covered in five straight games, but the Rebels have been covering as underdogs, so this will be an unfamiliar role for them, asked to cover as favorites. 

This is a 5% play on the Aggies on the spread. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB ACC *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We really like the home team in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Demon Deacons boast a perfect 9-0 record at home, while UNC enters this game with shattered confidence after a last-second loss to Stanford, who pulled off the upset as double-digit underdogs.

This is a 5% play on the Demon Deacons on the spread. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB Big West *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line is highly influenced by UC Davis' 84-73 loss as a 5.5-point favorite against Long Beach State on Saturday, but Cal Poly was on an 0-8 run against the spread before covering just barely in a 75-72 loss to UCSB in its last game.

This is a 5% play on UC Davis on the spread. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB SEC *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how Georgia struggled with Ole Miss in its first conference game of the season while Kentucky impressed in its win over 4th-ranked Florida.  

This is a 5% play on Kentucky on the spread.

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Hawks are in uncharted territory with this just their second road game of the season and St. Louis is 7-1 at home. 

This is a 5% play on St. Louis on the spread. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE MONTH*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line is highly influenced by the Wildcats' 1-5 record against the spread in their last six games, but our opinion is that this is an overcorrection. 

This is a 5% play on the Wildcats on the spread.

David's Top-rated 5% WICH/DEP NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that back-to-back losses have followed DePaul's perfect 7-0 start, while Wichita State set a season high for points in last weekend's 96-87 win over East Tennessee.

This is a 5% play on the Shockers on the spread.

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. This line is highly influenced by Wright State's 1-3 record in its last four games, but the Raiders won comfortably in the only game they closed as a favorite On the other side of the coin, Detroit Mercy is overvalued after starting the season 7-2 against the spread. 

This is a 5% play on the Raiders on the spread.

David's 4% NCAAB *MAJOR WAGER*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. This line looks mispriced when you consider that Alcorn State just suffered a 38-point loss to Maryland, and the Shockers are primed for a big bounce-back performance after falling short as an underdog against Florida in their last game.

This is a 4% play on the Shockers on the spread.

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *TOTAL OF THE WEEK*

We really like the over in this matchup. This line looks mispriced when you consider that Nebraska has scored 86 points or more in two of four games and Creighton has not scored fewer than 78 with two 90+ games. 

This is a 5% play on the over. 

David's Top-rated 5% NCAAB *GAME OF THE WEEK*

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line seems off when you consider that Penn State has scored 100+ points in each of its first two games, while St. Francis has struggled and been blown out in all three of its games so far.

This is a 5% play on the Nittany Lions on the spread.

10*

                             AUBURN @ UNC

The bookmakers are projecting a high scoring game between the Tigers and the Tar Heels in the Sweet Sixteen, but I think the number is just too high. The trends really don't support the idea of more than 160 combined points. North Carolina has failed to reach the total in six straight versus SEC teams, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight NCAA Tournament games. The Tigers have only seeen two of their last 10 games combine for more than 161.5 points, while the Tar Heels have only seen one of their last 10 games reach such a high total. Both teams have held opponents to fewer than 70 points per game over their last five overall. North Carolina has faced Duke three times this season, and not one of those games saw more than 160 combined points.

Take Under.

                  DUKE @ UNC

The Tar Heels have already beaten Duke twice this season, but the public just loves Duke and Zion Williamson. After scoring 29 points (almost all spectacular dunks) in his return last night, Zion has Duke favored here in the rubber match. The fact is that Duke still isn't very good defensively, and they lost their starting center Marques Bolden in the last loss to the Tar Heels. I'll take the points here with North Carolina team that has already proved to be the better of the two teams.

Take UNC.

                              HALL @ MARQUETTE

The Seton Hall Pirates are coming off a blowout win over Georgetown in the Big East tournament yesterday. They jumped all over the Hoywas in the first half, scoring a whopping 53 points. They will need to score plenty here tonight against Marquette, because the Golden Eagles are bound to get their share. Marquette scored 86 points in a win over St. John's yesterday. Big East Play of the Year Markus Howard scored 30 points on 8-of-15 shooting in the win. In both meetings between these teams earlier this season, the first half went over the total. The Pirates have gone over the total in seven of their last nine games at a neutral site.

Take Over.

                            DUKE @ UNC

The last time these two teams played (a few weeks ago) the Tar Heels cruised to an easy win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Zion Williamson suffered what might be a season ending injury in the opening minute of that game, and the Blue Devils have been in a bad way ever since. There is plenty of speculation that Zion suffered a minor injury, and despite being healthy enough to play he may choose to sit out and wait for the NBA draft. In addition to the Zion situation, Duke's primary PG comes into this game with a lingering injury as well. The Tar Heels are 13-2 at home, and they've scored an average of 88.7 points in those games. That's roughly 10 points more than Duke averages on the road. Duke didn't look anything like a #1 seed in a near loss to Wake Forest in their last game.

Take UNC.

                               TENNESSEE @ AUBURN

The SEC Title is up for grabs, but Tennessee will need a win at Auburn if they want to edge out LSU and Kentucky. Auburn is no pushover, boasting a 14-2 home record and a 10-7 conference record. The Tigers have lost five straight against ranked teams though, and they catch Tennessee at a bad time. Tennessee is 17-8 ATS in it's last 25 road games, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against Auburn. The Tigers have failed to cover in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, and they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games.

Take TENN.

                       IOWA @ WISCONSIN

Wisconsin will be a big favorite in it's final home game versus Iowa, but the total for this game is higher than it was in any of the Badgers last 10 games overall. That might be because the Hawkeyes tend to play higher scoring games, but based on the line, we should expect the home team to dicate the pace here. Wisconsin has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 13 overall. The Badgers have allowed just 61.4 points per game at home, and they have held the opposition to fewer than 60 points in each of their last three home games. The Badgers have failed to reach the total in five of their last six home games, and the under is 43-21-4 in their last 68 versus the BIG10.

Take Under.

                          BULLDOGS @ VOLUNTEERS

Tennessee is coming off a huge 19-point home win over Kentucky, and they come into Tuesday's home game versus Missippi State tied for first place in the SEC with LSU. The Wildcats are just a game back, and any of those three schools could win the conference. I don't expect much of a let down here for a Vols team that is 17-0 at home. They have won six straight home games by double digits, and they have had a lead at halftime in all 17 of their home games. They had a 37-24 lead at the half in Saturday's win over Kentucky. I like the Vols to start fast and win big versus the Bulldogs.

Take TENN.

                            BC @ GEORGIA TECH

The Yellow Jackets may have lost nine of their last 10 overall, they are a solid home team. They are 10-7 overall at home this season, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. The home team has won four straight meetings between these two teams. Boston College has lost seven of nine on the road, scoring an average of just 65 points in those games. The Eagles could struggle against a solid Yellow Jackets defense. Georgia Tech has held the opposition under 64 points per game at home this season.

Take GT.

                     RAMS @ LOBOS

The Rams have won three straight, while the Lobos have lost three straight. New Mexico though played two of their last three games on the road, and a home loss came in a close game to Fresno State. The Rams have lost seven of 10 on the road this season, and they are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in New Mexico. The Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 0-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus teams with a losing road record. This has all the signs of a let down spot for the visitors, and a "get right" game for the home team. I love the Lobos as a slight favorite at home in New Mexico.

Take UNM.