06-22-25 |
Pacers +7.5 v. Thunder |
|
91-103 |
Loss |
-108 |
18 h 32 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the Pacers’ grit and resilience throughout the series. They’ve fought hard to win three games outright, and while their losses haven’t been close enough to cover the spread, their relentless, never-say-die attitude makes them a strong candidate to cover in Game 7. Given the intensity of a decisive game and the competitive nature of this team, this looks like good value backing the Pacers on the spread. This is a 4% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
06-19-25 |
Thunder v. Pacers +6.5 |
Top |
91-108 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Finals *GAME OF THE YEAR* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that a loss would end the season for the Pacers, and with their backs against the wall, we expect maximum effort. While the Thunder have won more than they've lost on the road, they’ve struggled to cover inflated spreads, especially in playoff pressure spots like this. This is a 5% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
06-16-25 |
Pacers +9.5 v. Thunder |
|
109-120 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 36 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Thunder were fortunate to cover the spread in their Game 4 win, and now they’re being asked to cover an even bigger number. Home or away, the Pacers have proven they’re not going away quietly. This is a 4% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
06-13-25 |
Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 226 |
|
111-104 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 1 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that while the Thunder are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, their offensive output tends to dip on the road. In fact, all four of their playoff road games with a total above 225 points have stayed under. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
06-11-25 |
Thunder v. Pacers UNDER 228.5 |
Top |
107-116 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 55 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that while the Thunder are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, their offensive output tends to dip on the road. In fact, all three of their playoff road games with a total above 225 points have stayed under. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
06-08-25 |
Pacers +11 v. Thunder |
Top |
107-123 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 11 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that while the Thunder are unlikely to drop another home game after losing Game 1, this is simply too many points to lay in an NBA Finals contest. The Pacers are scrappy, selfless, and play with a relentless edge. With their never-say-die attitude, no lead is safe and a backdoor cover is always in play. This is a 5% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
06-05-25 |
Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 |
Top |
111-110 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 22 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Finals *TOTAL OF THE YEAR* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how solid both teams are defensively, and Game 1 of the Finals is not the time for lapses or undisciplined play on that end of the floor. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
05-31-25 |
Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 |
|
108-125 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 60 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that it will be tough for the Knicks to bring the same energy on the road after leaving it all on the floor in Thursday’s home win to extend the series. Now back in Indiana, we expect the Pacers to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals, as they surely do not want to go back to NY for a Game 7. This is a 4% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
05-29-25 |
Pacers +4.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
94-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Conf Finals *GAME OF THE YEAR* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Knicks' only win in the series came after erasing a 20-point deficit. The Pacers have clearly had their number, and with the Knicks down 3-1 in the series, a comeback feels highly unlikely. Even at home, we expect New York to struggle matching Indiana's energy and intensity. This is a 5% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
05-28-25 |
Wolves v. Thunder -8 |
|
94-124 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Thunder are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread at home in the postseason. With a 3-1 lead in the series, they can smell blood, and we doubt the Wolves can muster up much resistance. This is a 4% play on the Thunder on the spread.
|
05-26-25 |
Thunder -3 v. Wolves |
|
128-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 8 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how well the Thunder have responded to losses in the playoffs, and the Wolves won't be allowed to take a big lead again. This is a 4% play on the Thunder on the spread.
|
05-25-25 |
Knicks v. Pacers -130 |
Top |
106-100 |
Loss |
-130 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how mentally drained the Knicks must be after dropping two straight at home. The Pacers have shown more depth and versatility, and that edge should only grow as the series wears on. This is a 5 play on the Pacers on the moneyline.
|
05-24-25 |
Thunder -2.5 v. Wolves |
|
101-143 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how dominant the Thunder have been through the first two games, winning 114-88 and 118-103. They've completely smothered the Wolves offensively, forcing tough shots and bad passes, disrupting their rhythm from start to finish. This is a 4% play on the Thunder on the spread.
|
05-22-25 |
Wolves v. Thunder OVER 214 |
|
103-118 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 34 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the over in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that while Game 1 stayed under the total, a major factor was the Wolves shooting just 15-for-51 (29%) from beyond the arc. Expect a much more efficient offensive approach from Minnesota in Game 2. The Thunder should once again flirt with 110–120 points, especially with the number of trips they make to the free-throw line. This is a 4% play on the over.
|
05-21-25 |
Pacers v. Knicks -4 |
|
138-135 |
Loss |
-113 |
12 h 44 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the home team won all three regular-season meetings, with the Knicks dominating at Madison Square Garden by scores of 123-98 and 128-115. While the Pacers impressed offensively in their series win over the Cavs, the Knicks proved they can bring the defensive intensity in their hard-fought series victory against Boston. This is a 4% play on the Knicks on the spread.
|
05-20-25 |
Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 |
Top |
88-114 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Conf Finals *TOTAL OF THE YEAR* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Timberwolves have the 2nd-best scoring defense in the playoffs (101.1) and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 4th with 104.1 points allowed per game. The Wolves have been underdogs three times in the playoffs (all against the Lakers), and all three stayed the total. This is a 5 play on the under.
|
05-18-25 |
Nuggets +8.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
93-125 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 51 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA West *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Nuggets have covered the spread in each of the last four games of the series and five of six overall. Oddsmakers still aren't giving them the respect they deserve in a Game 7 that’s likely to come down to the wire This is a 5 play on the Nuggets on the spread.
|
05-16-25 |
Celtics +125 v. Knicks |
Top |
81-119 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider the renewed confidence the Celtics bring into this game following a 127-102 home win to cut the series deficit to 3-2. No Tatum, no problem, as others stepped up in a big way. With new momentum on their side, we expect the Celtics to force a Game 7 back in Boston. This is a 5 play on the Celtics on the moneyline.
|
05-14-25 |
Warriors +11.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
110-121 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 15 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA West *GAME OF THE MONTH* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Warriors would have covered this number in three of the first four games of the series. Underdogs have performed exceptionally well against the spread throughout the playoffs, and we believe this line is inflated. This is a 5% play on the Warriors on the spread.
|
05-13-25 |
Nuggets +10.5 v. Thunder |
|
105-112 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how well underdogs have performed in Round 2 of the playoffs, and the Nuggets are no exception. They’ve won two of four games in the series outright and are 3-1 against the spread. Denver also gave OKC trouble during the regular season, and this is too many points for an erratic Thunder team to be laying against a gritty Nuggets team. This is a 4% play on the Nuggets on the spread.
|
05-12-25 |
Wolves v. Warriors +5.5 |
|
117-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you factor in the adjustments Golden State made in Game 3, which allowed them to go toe-to-toe with the Wolves in a narrow 102-97 loss. That performance should give this group a confidence boost, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they steal this one outright. Either way, we’re happy to take the points. This is a 4% play on the Warriors on the spread.
|
05-12-25 |
Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
113-121 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated NBA East *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider the Celtics have held the Knicks to just 91 and 93 points over the last two games. Boston is still trailing 2-1 in the series, so we expect a locked-in defensive effort once again. That said, their offense has struggled to find rhythm throughout the series, which supports the under even further. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
05-11-25 |
Cavs -5 v. Pacers |
Top |
109-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the No. 1 seed in the East is still trailing 2-1 in the series, even after a dominant 126-104 win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday. The Cavaliers are a perfect 3-0 on the road this postseason, and with their backs still against the wall, we expect another focused and complete performance to even the series. This is a 5% play on the Cavs on the spread.
|
05-10-25 |
Wolves -5 v. Warriors |
|
102-97 |
Push |
0 |
15 h 38 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced with the Warriors set to be without Stephen Curry once again—just as they were in the 117-93 blowout loss in Game 2. Without Curry on the floor, Golden State simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up. We expect Minnesota to overpower them again and take back control of the series. This is a 4% play on the Wolves on the spread.
|
05-09-25 |
Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 227 |
|
126-104 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 50 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that oddsmakers are holding firm despite two straight overs to start the series. The Cavaliers have given up 120 and 121 points in the first two games, and they’ll need to step up defensively if they want to get back into this series. We expect a more focused and desperate effort on that end of the floor, which sets up well for an under. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
05-08-25 |
Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 202 |
|
93-117 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
David's 4% GSW/MIN NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how the Warriors have strung together several impressive defensive performances this postseason, including a 99-88 win in Game 1. With Steph Curry sidelined, we expect Golden State to lean heavily on defense once again in what should be another low-scoring battle. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
05-07-25 |
Nuggets +11.5 v. Thunder |
Top |
106-149 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 50 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA West *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how resilient the Nuggets were in Game 1, stealing a late win and showing they won’t go away quietly. With that victory, the Nuggets have now won three of the five meetings this season and bring a wealth of playoff experience to the table. We expect another tight contest in Game 2 and love getting points with the visitors. This is a 5% play on the Nuggets on the spread.
|
05-06-25 |
Pacers v. Cavs -9 |
|
120-119 |
Loss |
-108 |
14 h 28 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how fired up the Cavs will be after dropping Game 1 at home. We cashed with Indiana in that one, but this is a classic bounce-back spot for a desperate home team looking to even the series. This is a 4% play on the Cavaliers on the spread.
|
05-05-25 |
Knicks v. Celtics -9 |
|
108-105 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 40 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how the Knicks sruggled with the Pistons, who are far below the quality of the Celtics, in the last round. The Celtics are coming off a gentleman's sweep of the Magic, and their loss came by just two points. They outscored the Maring by almost 13 points per game and have dominated the Knicks all season. This is a 4% play on the Celtics on the spread.
|
05-04-25 |
Pacers +8 v. Cavs |
|
121-112 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Pacers just knocked out the Bucks in five games and have won three of four outright against the Cavaliers this season. Cleveland cruised past an overmatched Heat team in the first round and hasn’t really been tested yet, but this is a much tougher matchup. The Pacers’ tempo, spacing, and shot-making give the Cavs problems. This is a 4% play on the Pacers on the spread.
|
05-03-25 |
Clippers +105 v. Nuggets |
Top |
101-120 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 11 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA West *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the Clippers in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that they’ll come in with confidence after staving off elimination, and the adjustments they made in the last outing suggest they may have finally cracked the code on the Nuggets. With momentum shifting and a more balanced effort on both ends, the Clippers are a strong play to win Game 7. This is a 5% play on the Clipppers on the moneyline.
|
05-02-25 |
Rockets v. Warriors -5 |
|
115-107 |
Loss |
-112 |
14 h 52 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider the Rockets emptied the tank in their Game 5 blowout to stay alive. Still trailing 3-2, they now head back to Chase Center where we expect a much sharper performance from the Warriors after a lackluster showing in the 131-116 loss, a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score suggests. This is a 4% play on the Warriors on the spread.
|
05-01-25 |
Knicks +1.5 v. Pistons |
|
116-113 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 28 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the road team in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider the spot. The New York Knicks still hold a 3-2 series lead despite dropping Game 5 at home, and this looks like a prime bounce-back spot. The Pistons pulled off a surprise win at Madison Square Garden, but asking them to replicate that effort back-to-back, especially against a more focused Knicks squad, is a tall order. This is a 4% play on the Knicks on the spread.
|
04-30-25 |
Wolves +6 v. Lakers |
|
103-96 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Lakers continue to be overvalued based on name recognition, but this Timberwolves squad has the size, youth, toughness, and defensive intensity that L.A. can't match. Minnesota has owned the paint in this series, and unless the Lakers find a way to counter that physicality, they’re in for another rough night. This is a 4% play on the Timberwolves on the spread
|
04-29-25 |
Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 |
Top |
115-131 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 15 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA West *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that all four games in this series have stayed under the total, and even with the number dropping for each game, two of them still fell short of this mark. With the intensity ratcheting up and every possession counting more than ever, we’re expecting another gritty, defensive battle. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
04-29-25 |
Pistons +5.5 v. Knicks |
|
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
|
David's 4% DET/NYK NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Knicks have won the last two games by a combined three points, and the Pistons' win in the series came at Madison Square Garden in Game 2. The Pistons have a positive point differential over the last three games. This is a 4% play on the Pistons on the spread.
|
04-28-25 |
Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 199.5 |
|
106-109 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. Oddsmakers have made some adjustments after four straight unders, but not enough. Both defenses have completely dictated the pace of this series, and with the stakes only getting higher, we expect another grind-it-out battle. No need to reinvent the wheel — the under remains the clear value play. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
04-28-25 |
Cavs -8.5 v. Heat |
Top |
138-83 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 28 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks way off when you consider the Cavs have absolutely owned Miami all season and haven’t given the Heat a sniff of hope in this series. With Cleveland eyeing the sweep, we’re expecting another wire-to-wire beatdown against a disheartened and overmatched Miami squad. This is a 5% play on the Cavaliers on the spread.
|
04-27-25 |
Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 217.5 |
|
94-93 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
David's 4% NYK/DET NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that although two of three games in this playoff series have gone over the total, these are two teams with underrated defensive capabilities. With the home team down 2-1 in the series, expect a tight, gritty defensive affair. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
04-26-25 |
Cavs -5 v. Heat |
Top |
124-87 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE MONTH* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Cavs have won the last four meetings, and the change of venue does not justify this big of adjustment of the line from the first two games of this series at Cleveland, which the Cavs won comfortably. This is a 5% play on the Cavaliers on the spread.
|
04-25-25 |
Celtics v. Magic UNDER 198 |
Top |
93-95 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Celtics have shut down the Magic all season long, but their own scoring usually also takes a hit away from home. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
04-24-25 |
Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 214 |
|
83-117 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 4 m |
Show
|
David's 4% DEN/LAC *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the first two games of the series have gone under the total, despite Game 1 going to overtime. The total has dropped for each game but we still don't think it's low enough, as the series moves to Intuit Dome. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
04-24-25 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -5 |
|
83-117 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 53 m |
Show
|
David's DEN/LAC NBA *BANKROLL BUILDER* We really like the Clippers in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Clippers arguably deserved to win both games at Denver, and with a healthy Kawhi Leonard in top form the Clippers look good to take a lead in the series. This is a 3% play on the Clippers on the spread.
|
04-24-25 |
Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 214.5 |
|
118-116 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 49 m |
Show
|
David's NYK/DET NBA *BANKROLL BUILDER* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced given the defensive effort both teams displayed in Game 2, and we expect another low-scoring game with the teams now even more familiar with each other heading into Game 3. This is a 3% play on the under.
|
04-23-25 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 204 |
|
94-109 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 41 m |
Show
|
David's 4% GSW/HOU NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Warriors took Game 1 with a 95-85 win and both teams bring underrated defenses to the table. This is a 4% play on the under.
|
04-22-25 |
Wolves v. Lakers OVER 210 |
|
85-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 5 m |
Show
|
David's 4% MIN/LAL NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the over in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how the Lakers struggled to contain the Wolves in the series opener. We expect that trend to continue, but also think the Lakers will bounce back offensively with much better efficiency and easily surpass the 95 points they were held to in Game 1. This is a 4% play on the over.
|
04-21-25 |
Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 218.5 |
Top |
105-102 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% LAC/DEN NBA West *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the first game still stayed under the total despite going to overtime, a testament to how tough both teams played on the defensive end. These squads are evenly matched, and we expect a slow-paced, methodical game with long possessions and careful ball handling as neither side can afford careless mistakes or rushed shots. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
04-20-25 |
Warriors v. Rockets OVER 212.5 |
Top |
95-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 53 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated NBA West *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* We really like the under in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider how underrated both teams' defensive efforts have been, and how playoff basketball typically trends toward lower-scoring games compared to the regular season. With intensity ramped up and every possession mattering more, we expect a tighter, more physical battle here. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
04-19-25 |
Wolves v. Lakers OVER 216 |
Top |
117-95 |
Loss |
-108 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% MIN/LAL NBA West *TOTAL OF THE WEEK* We really like the over in this matchup. The line is highly influenced by the previous four meetings of the season that all went udner the total, but this number is more than 10 points lower than the last meeting and our opinion is that this is an overcorrection. This is a 5% play on the over.
|
04-18-25 |
Heat v. Hawks -105 |
Top |
123-114 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 57 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA East *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the home team in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering how the Bulls are overvalued after a blowout win in Chicago while the Hawks are disrespected after a blowout loss at Orlando. All four games in the regular season series were won by the home team, and we think home-court advantage will be the difference again. This is a 5% play on the Hawks on the moneyline.
|
04-16-25 |
Heat v. Bulls -112 |
|
109-90 |
Loss |
-112 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
|
David's 4% MIA/CHI NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that the Bulls are hot with six wins in seven games while the Heat are cold with two wins in six games. The Bulls have defeated the Heat three times in 2025 and look good to make it four in a row. This is a 4% play on the Bulls on the moneyline.
|
04-15-25 |
Hawks v. Magic -5 |
|
95-120 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
David's Hawks/Magic NBA *BANKROLL BUILDER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The Magics' defense is miles better than the Hawks who are too reliant on Trae Young magic on offense to win games. This is a 3% plau on the Magic on the spread.
|
04-15-25 |
Hawks v. Magic UNDER 217.5 |
Top |
95-120 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 24 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Play-In *TOTAL OF THE YEAR* We really like the under in this matchup. The total is mispriced based on two recent higher-scoring meetings that hit 231 and 222 points, but those came in the final week of the regular season. With postseason intensity and familiarity between these teams, we expect a much tighter physical defensive battle this time around. This is a 5% play on the under.
|
04-13-25 |
Mavs +3.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
97-132 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
David's 4% DAL/MEM NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the Grizzlies are locked into the play-in no matter what, and the Mavs have a shot to even the season series. Memphis has dropped two straight and six of their last nine, and with an interim coach at the helm, it’s tough to trust them in a spot like this. This is a 4% play on the Mavericks on the spread.
|
04-11-25 |
Cavs +7.5 v. Knicks |
|
108-102 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
David's 4% Cavs/Knicks NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that although the Cavs have the Eastern Conference wrapped up and can afford to rest players, they're still fighting OKC for the best record in the league and trying to reach the 60-game mark. The Cavs just put up a good fight at Indiana last night and can do it again here. This is a 4% play on the Cavaliers on the spread
|
04-10-25 |
Cavs v. Pacers -9 |
Top |
112-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 11 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The line may look a little odd, even appearing that the wrong team is favored. There is a good reason for that, the Cavs are resting all their starters, and have little interest in competing in the front end of a back to back. The Pacers have won five straight, and might be the hottest team in the NBA. This is a 5% play on the Pacers.
|
04-09-25 |
Nuggets v. Kings OVER 234.5 |
|
124-116 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
David's 4% DEN/SAC NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the over in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that the Nuggets lost to Indiana last time out despite scoring 120 points, and they've been shaky defensively for some time. This is a 4% play on the over.
|
04-08-25 |
Bulls v. Cavs -11.5 |
|
113-135 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 20 m |
Show
|
David's 4% CHI/CLE NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that the Cavaliers would clinch the top seed in the Eastern Conference with a win, and they've already recorded three dominant wins over the Bulls this season. This is a 4% play on the Cavaliers on the spread.
|
04-07-25 |
Florida v. Houston -105 |
Top |
65-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 36 m |
Show
|
David's 5% FLA/HOU NCAAB Championship *BEST BET* We really like the Cougars in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering Houston just took down the nation’s No. 1 team with a legendary comeback and now rides an 18-game win streak into the title game. With the best defense in the country and elite three-point shooting, this feels like the year Houston finally breaks through. This is a 5% play on Cougars on the moneyline.
|
04-06-25 |
Pacers +6.5 v. Nuggets |
|
125-120 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
David's 4% IND/DEB NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the Nuggets are just 1-5 ATS in their last five games, while the Pacers have picked up their scoring and won eight of their last 10. Indiana is playing with confidence, and this feels like a spot where they can keep it close—or even pull off the upset. This is a 4% play on Pacers.
|
04-05-25 |
Florida -2.5 v. Auburn |
Top |
79-73 |
Win
|
100 |
90 h 26 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% Gators/Tigers NCAAB *BEST BET* We really like the Gators in this matchup. The line looks mispriced, considering Auburn may have had too easy of a path to the Final Four to be fully prepared for what Florida will bring. The Gators got a wake-up call after being pushed to overtime by Texas Tech in the last round, and we think that experience will have them more ready for this showdown. After falling to Florida 90-81 in the regular season, Auburn fans better prepare for another setback. This is a 5% play on the Gators.
|
04-05-25 |
UCF +3.5 v. Villanova |
|
104-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
David's 4% UCF/VILL NCAAB *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering how Villanova struggled with USC in their last game while UCF won 88-80 as an underdog at Cincinnati in their last game. Our numbers say that UCF is undervalued again. This is a 4% play on Knights.
|
04-04-25 |
Blazers v. Bulls -5.5 |
Top |
113-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 58 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Non-conference *GAME OF THE WEEK* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that the Blazers will play on 0 days rest off an win in Toronto and the raging Bulls come in off two days rest. This is a 5% play on Bulls.
|
04-03-25 |
Chattanooga +4 v. Cal-Irvine |
|
85-84 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 8 m |
Show
|
David's 4% CHAT/UCI CBB *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that although both teams have been money against the spread all season, the Mocs have shown time and time again how competitive they can be as underdogs. This is a 4% play on the Mocs.
|
04-03-25 |
Blazers -3 v. Raptors |
|
112-103 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
David's 4% POR/TOR NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering that the Raptors lost lost after four straight wins while the Blazers ended a five-game skid with a 127-113 win in Atlanta on Tuesday. They'll be eager to build on the win and have owned the Raptors in recent seasons. This is a 4% play on Blazers.
|
04-02-25 |
Pistons v. Thunder OVER 230.5 |
Top |
103-119 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 55 m |
Show
|
David's Top-rated 5% NBA Non-conference *GAME OF THE MONTH* We really like the over in this matchup. The line looks mispriced considering the Thunder are dominating the West and showing no signs of slowing down. They've scored 121+ points in four straight games and in seven of their last eight. The Pistons have been giving up plenty of points lately but have still won five of their last seven by outscoring opponents rather than relying on defense. This is a 5% play on the over.
|
04-01-25 |
Tulane v. USC -8.5 |
|
60-89 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
David's 4% TULN/USC NCAAB *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that Tulane has lost two starting players to the transfer portal, and that USC rarely disappoints as favorites. This is a 4% play on the Trojans.
|
04-01-25 |
Suns v. Bucks -6.5 |
|
123-133 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
David's 4% PHX/MIL NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider this is a big revenge spot for the Bucks after a 108-106 loss at Phoenix a week ago, a loss that started a four-game skid. The Suns have lost three in a row since that win, and the injured Kevin Durant will not fly with the team to Milwaukee. This is a 4% play on the Bucks on the spread.
|
03-31-25 |
Rockets v. Lakers OVER 224.5 |
|
98-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 20 m |
Show
|
David's 4% HOU/LAL NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the over in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Rockets have emerged as one of the hottest teams in the league. They scored 120+ points for a third straight game when they defeated the Suns 148-109 on Sunday and this looks like it'll be another high-scoring affair against a Lakers team that is getting healthy. This is a 4% play on the over.
|
03-31-25 |
Clippers v. Magic +3.5 |
|
96-87 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
David's 4% LAC/ORL NBA *MAJOR WAGER* We really like the underdog in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Clippers have been far better at home than on the road all season and fatigue could be an issue here on the second leg of a back-to-back situation and in their fourth consecutive game on the road. This is a 4% play on the Magic on the spread.
|
03-30-25 |
Tennessee +3.5 v. Houston |
|
50-69 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Cougars are coming off back to back wins in games that were a lot closer than they should have been. They missed their free throws against Gonzaga. and they couldn't put away Purdue. The Vols are the type of team that might give them fits. This is a 4* play on TEN.
|
03-29-25 |
Texas Tech v. Florida UNDER 157 |
Top |
79-84 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the all four games went over on Friday. These totals appear to be a bit inflated based on some high scoring games in the early rounds. Texas Tech and Florida playing on short rest, tired legs might be missing some shots. If the Red Raiders didn't go to OT with Arkansas, it would have been an under in regulation. This is a 5* play on Under.
|
03-29-25 |
Kings -114 v. Magic |
|
91-121 |
Loss |
-114 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
We really like the road team in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Kings have Damantas Sabonis back, and they have won six of the last seven meetings versus Orlando. The Magic are 8-18 SU against Western Conference teams this season. This is a 5* play on SAC.
|
03-28-25 |
Michigan +8.5 v. Auburn |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-115 |
113 h 37 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Wolverines won their conference tournament, and the Tigers stumbled at the end of the year losing three of four games. They came from behind to beat Creighton in their last game, but the 12 point margin is a little misleading. It was a six point game with 1:39 remaining, and Auburn scored eight of the final 10 points. Johni Broome has averaged just 11 points per game in the tournament so far. This is a 5* play on Michigan.
|
03-28-25 |
Suns v. Wolves -6.5 |
|
109-124 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Suns have twice as many losses as they have wins on the road (12-24). Minnesota is well rested, and Anthony Edwards was able to play in Indiana on Monday. The Suns have had lost six straight in this series, and without Bradley Beal that trend is expected to continue tonight. This is a 5* play on MIN.
|
03-28-25 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 147 |
|
65-78 |
Win
|
100 |
110 h 11 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that this will be the third meeting between these teams this year. The Wildcats won both games during the regular season, and the last meeting was a 75-64 home win. That was well short of the total of 146, and these teams have failed to reach the total in seven of the last 10 meetings. This is a 5* play on Under.
|
03-27-25 |
Maryland v. Florida UNDER 155.5 |
|
71-87 |
Loss |
-109 |
86 h 17 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Gators vs Gonzaga was a dead set under until chaos in the final 40 seconds resulted in 18 points. Both Maryland and Florida are capable defensively. The Gators were 3rd in the SEC in opponent's scoring (69ppg), and the Terps ranked 2nd in the BIG10 (66ppg). The Terps have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 games. This is a 5* play on Under.
|
03-26-25 |
Bucks v. Nuggets -4.5 |
|
117-127 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 32 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Bucks come limping into town with a banged up Giannis and Damian Lillard on the shelf. Denver should have it's starting lineup intact, and there is nowhere tougher to play than at altitude in Denver when the Nuggets are healthy. This is a 5* play on DEN.
|
03-26-25 |
UAB +4.5 v. Cal-Irvine |
Top |
77-81 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 57 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Blazers have won back to back road games against quality opponents (Santa Clara and St. Joe's) while the Ant Eaters have played at home against lesser competition. Their win over Jacksonville State by a score of 66-61 was rather underwhelming. UAB was the highest scoring team in the AAC and boast a lineup loaded with seniors. We will take the points. This is a 5* play on UAB.
|
03-25-25 |
Hawks v. Rockets -8 |
|
114-121 |
Loss |
-105 |
19 h 36 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Hawks are 9-17 against the Western Conference. The Rockets are 100 percent healthy, while the Hawks lost Capella for the season and their current lineup is full of holes. The Rockets are 20-9 versus Eastern Conference times, and they have won 9-of-10 overall, and 6-of-7 at home. This is a 5* play on HOU.
|
03-24-25 |
Wolves v. Pacers -125 |
|
103-119 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the T-Wolves leading scorer has a thumb injury, and it is unclear if Edwards will play. The Pacers are 16-8 SU against Western Conference teams this season, and their 23-9 home record is one of the best in the Conference. This is a 5* play on IND.
|
03-23-25 |
Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 153.5 |
Top |
83-87 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 19 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Ducks held Liberty to 52 points, while Arizona held Akron to 65 points. These teams played on March 15th 2024, and the final score was 67-59 for Oregon. The Ducks have gone under in eight of their last 10 games. The under is 9-3 in Arizona's last 12 games in the month of March. This is a 10* play on Under.
|
03-23-25 |
New Mexico v. Michigan State -7 |
Top |
63-71 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 49 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Spartans are ranked #8 nationally by Ken Pom, 34 spots higher than New Mexico. Mountain West teams came into this tournament with a record of 26-53 ATS. Michigan State ranks 3rd in the BIG10 allowing just 67 points per game. This is a 10* play on MSU.
|
03-22-25 |
Warriors -135 v. Hawks |
Top |
115-124 |
Loss |
-135 |
17 h 49 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Hawks are 8-17 SU versus Western Conference teams. Perhaps this is an overreaction to the injury of Steph Curry. The supporting cast for the Warriors is still better than the Hawks lineup. Golden State is 7-3 without Curry this season, and the Hawks are sub .500 team in the lesser conference. This is a 10* play on GSW.
|
03-22-25 |
Drake +7 v. Texas Tech |
|
64-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Red Raiders failed to cover, and didn't look all that sharp in the first round against UNCW. Drake is a legit Top 50 team with an impressive non conference record. They play at the slowest pace in the country, and they should be able to hang with the Red Raiders. This is a 5* play on DRAKE.
|
03-22-25 |
McNeese State v. Purdue -5.5 |
|
62-76 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 32 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Cowboys almost blew a big lead against Clemson. As impressive as their first round win was, it's important to remember that the Tigers leading scorer was injured. This team was blown out by Gonzaga in the first round last year, and Purdue should prove to be a far tougher test than a shorthanded ACC team. This is a 5* play on PUR.
|
03-21-25 |
Troy State v. Kentucky -10 |
Top |
57-76 |
Win
|
100 |
112 h 4 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that Kentucky ranks Top 20 nationally according to Ken Pom, 78 spots higher than Troy. The Wildcats have covered in five straight games as a favorite. Thursday six teams were favored by double digits, and all six teams won by double digits. This is a 10* play on UK.
|
03-21-25 |
Vanderbilt v. St. Mary's -180 |
|
56-59 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 21 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that Vanderbilt ranked 13th in the SEC allowing 75 points per game. The Gaels rank 1st in the WCC holding opponents to just over 60 points per game. The strength of schedule argument in favor of the SEC team fails the smell test when you consider the Gaels beat Gonzaga twice. This is a 5* play on SMC.
|
03-20-25 |
VCU v. BYU -140 |
Top |
71-80 |
Win
|
100 |
85 h 19 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that while both teams come in as winners of 9-of-10, the Cougars strength of schedule is simply not comparable. The Cougars rank 1st in the BIG12 in FG% and 3rd in three point percentage. Given the elite defenses they would face in the BIG12, it becomes quite clear that the sharp shooting of BYU gives them a measurable advantage. This is a 10* play on BYU.
|
03-20-25 |
McNeese State v. Clemson -7.5 |
|
69-67 |
Loss |
-108 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that Cowboys coach Will Wade is leaving for NC State, while Clemson has signed their coach to an extension. Yes Clemson lost it's leading scorer in the conference tournament, but the #18 ranked team by Ken Pom is not a one man show. Their depth will power them past the Cowboys. This is a 5* play on CLEM.
|
03-20-25 |
Montana v. Wisconsin -16.5 |
|
66-85 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that Wisconsin is ranked #13 by Ken Pom, 148 spots higher than Montana. The Grizzlies don't have a single win against a Top 100 team this season. They better think twice about fouling the Badgers, who rank 1st in the BIG10 hitting 83% from the free throw line. This is a 5* play on WISC.
|
03-19-25 |
Nuggets +1.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
108-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 36 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that LeBron is still out of the lineup, and several other Lakers are banged up. The Nuggets rested several starters in Golden State on Monday, but they still won outright. Westbrook had a triple-double, and he seems to be back to the form he was in prior to his injury. The Nuggets own the lakers, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings. This is a 5* play on DEN.
|
03-19-25 |
Mt. St. Mary's v. American UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
83-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
64 h 57 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that American plays at a snail's pace, averaging just 65.6 possessions per game (358th). These two teams are quite familiar with each other, and they have a history of playing low scoring games. Mount St. Mary's has failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10, and American has gone under in seven of their last 10. This is a 10* play on Under.
|
03-18-25 |
Cavs v. Clippers +4.5 |
|
119-132 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 57 m |
Show
|
We really like the home underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that this is the first leg of a back to back, and the middle game of a 3-in-4 situation for Cleveland. The Cavs 16 game losing skid just ended at the hands of Orlando on Sunday, and public money will back them to get right back on the horse. This isn't a great spot for the road favorite. The Clippers are healthy, and they are winners of six of seven. The Clippers are 4-1 in their last five home games in this series. This is a 5* play on LAC.
|
03-18-25 |
St Francis PA v. Alabama State UNDER 142 |
|
68-70 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 2 m |
Show
|
We really like the under in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that both these teams are coming off games that failed to reach 120 combined points. Alabama State has gone over in just 12 of 33 games this season. The Hornets have also gone under in nine of their last 10 overall. This is a 5* play on Under.
|
03-17-25 |
Bulls -5.5 v. Jazz |
|
111-97 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
We really like the favortie in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Jazz have lost nine straight games, they are playing the second game of a back to back, and Chicago is looking at a play-in spot. The Jazz starters played full minutes last night, and they may not get their regular workload tonight. This is a 5* play on Bulls.
|
03-16-25 |
Hornets +12.5 v. Clippers |
|
88-123 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that the Hornets come in as winners of three of four. They have lost 10 straight to the Clippers, but have covered in four of the last five. This looks like a flat spot for LA with Cleveland on deck, and three games against top 5 teams coming up. This is a 5* play on Charlotte.
|
03-16-25 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan +4 |
|
53-59 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
We really like the underdog in this matchup. The number looks a bit off when you consider that both these teams played games decided by 3 points or less on Saturday. The Wolverines swept the season series, and they are 5-1 in the last six versus Wisconsin. The games have been close, so the point spread could come into play here. This is a 5* play on Michigan.
|
03-15-25 |
Knicks v. Warriors -6.5 |
|
94-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 41 m |
Show
|
We really like the home favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little off when you consider that the Knicks are without their leading scorer Jalen Brunson. The Dubs are 12-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup, and Jimmy has a personal grudge against Karl Anthony Towns, who was a teammate briefly in Minnesota. Jimmy owns KAT, and the Dubs should own the Knicks tonight. This is a 5* play on the GSW.
|
03-15-25 |
Michigan v. Maryland -180 |
|
81-80 |
Loss |
-180 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
We really like the favorite in this matchup. The number looks a little off when you consider that the Terps are ranked 15 spots higher nationally than Michigan. The Wolverines lost three straight heading into the tournament, and one of those losses came at home versus Maryland. The Terps boast the 2nd ranked defense in the BIG10 allowing just 66.6 points per game. Maryland is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. This is a 5* play on the TERPS.
|