ASA top play on 10* OVER 36.5 Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills, Saturday 1 PM ET - The Packers have had some glaring deficiencies defensively in the preseason with 23 and 26 points allowed to the Jets and Texans. It’s only preseason but there are clearly some underlying problems with the Packer ‘D’. Consider the Jets and Texans were two of the worst offenses in the NFL last season and yet they put up 268-yards and 319-yards. New York was 30th a year ago in points scored per game while Houston was 21st in yards per point offensively. Now the Pack face a Bills offense that was 4th in Yards Per Point, 3rd in scoring and 4th in total yards per game gained. Buffalo is planning to start and play their regulars for a few series and clearly have capable backups which produced 41-points last week in Chicago. Green Bay is going to start and play QB Jordan Love who sat out last week against the Jets. Love was 12 of 17 with a TD in his preseason debut and should move the ball here against the Bills. Green Bay has yet to look good in the exhibition season but let’s not forget this unit was 2nd in total yards per game a year ago, 1st in scoring at 31.5PPG and 2nd in Yards Per Point at 12.5. Buffalo has faced the Lions and Bears who were bottom ten teams in the NFL offensively a year ago, so this is a dramatic step up in competition. Look for a few early scores from the starters and some late by the guys fighting for a spot on the rosters. BET OVER.

#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Jacksonville vs New Orleans, Monday at 8 PM ET - New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer has not made it a secret that he wants an up tempo offense. The Jags ran 65 plays last week vs Cleveland and Meyer stated he was upset with the team’s offensive tempo and wanted to push the dial much more heading into this week’s game @ New Orleans. They worked on it all week in practice and we would expect them to run 70+ plays this week. Meyer stated, “I thought practice was much better. I get the first game [being slow], but now I want to try to have a little bit of success.” We like their QB rotation of Lawrence, Minshew and Beathard which should give them a chance to put points on the board this week. The defense is definitely a work in progress and allowed 23 points to the Browns last week after finishing 31st last year giving up 31 PPG. New Orleans only put up 14 points last week vs a very good Baltimore defense but averaged 6.0 YPP. They turned the ball over 6 times in that game including 3 deep inside Raven territory at the 8-yard line, the 11-yard line and the 35-yard line (all potential scoring opportunities lost). On top of that the Ravens turned the ball over at the 11-yard line and were stopped on downs at the Saints 39 in that game (more blown scoring chances). We like the QB competition between Winston and Hill as both are veterans with starting experience and both need to be on top of their game fighting for the #1 job. We expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game with the Jags wanting to play fast and the Saints finishing in the top 10 in plays per game last season. The pre-season has been low scoring for the most part thus far, but we look for this to be one of the higher scoring games to date. Take the OVER.

ASA play 8* OVER 35 Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday 7:30PM ET - The Unders were “money” last week in the opening weekend of the preseason but the trend shifts this weekend when starters for most teams are expected to get more reps. This Total is our favorite O/U bet of the weekend as these two teams are poised for some solid offensive numbers. Last weekend the Titans put up 17 first downs on 62-plays and 244 total yards. Those statistics aren’t a true reflection of the Titans offense which was 5th in yards per play offensively last year and 6th in yards per points. Tennessee was the 4th fastest paced team in the NFL a season ago so look for them to turn up the tempo after a poor showing in the opener. Tampa Bay had a horrible offensive showing last weekend with 14 first downs, 159 total yards on 69 plays. The Bucs were the 9th fastest paced team last year, averaged 6.0 yards per play (7th) and were 1st in yards per points at 12.5. This week in the joint practices between these two teams the Titans defensive backs struggled with the Bucs wide receivers with Brady connecting on several deep touchdowns. Both teams are going to score here and push this game Over the number.

ASA play on: OVER 40.5 Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 8PM ET – We cashed an easy Over win yesterday on the Texans versus Lions and we expect a similar outcome today on the Seahawks/Vikings game. Money and line indicators clearly point to a higher scoring game. Last week the Seahawks offensive starters didn’t see the field, yet the Hawks racked up over 300 yards of total offense against a Denver defense that was one of the best in the NFL last year. QB Russell Wilson is expected to play into the second quarter this week then make way for Paxton Lynch who was 11 of 15 last week. The Vikings defense allowed nearly 340 yards, 27 first downs and 25-points last week to the Saints so expect the Seahawks to score here too. Minnesota’s newly revamped offense looked fantastic last week as the first team O started the game with an 8-play, 76-yards drive that led to a TD. Vikes QB Cousons was 4 for 4 with a TD pass. Minnesota put up 460 total yards of offense against a Saints defense that was better than the Seahawks a year ago. The clincher here is that we have two coaches with a strong history of trying to win meaningless preseason games. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is 18-4 SU in the NFLX while Carroll of the Seahawks is 23-14. With both teams playing to win you can bet it will be higher scoring. Bet OVER!

ASA play on: OVER 40.5 Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8PM ET – These two teams have been holding a joint practice this week and both are coming off different showings from Week #1. While the Texans lost in Green Bay in the preseason opener, they looked good doing so. The Texans racked up 29 first downs, 138 rushing yards and 274 passing yards which was good for 26 points. Houston got their starters roughly 90 reps against the Lions this week so their play will be limited, if at all, for tonight’s game but that’s not a bad thing for our Over wager. Texans QB Webb III played well in the opener by going 25 of 40 for 286 yards. He’ll see extended minutes again here as the Texans lack QB depth. Plus, he’ll face a Lions defense that was torched by the Patriots in their exhibition opener. You would think the Patriots former defensive coordinator, Lions current head coach Matt Patricia, would have a good game-plan against his former team? Not so much! The Pats put up an obscene 459 total yards of offense and 31-points against Detroit. Concerning defensive “genius” Patricia. The Lions ranked 27th in the NFL in defensive efficiency last year while the Patriots jumped from 31st in 2017 to 16th last year in his first season removed from defensive coordinator. We do expect to see the Lions offensive starters including QB Matt Stafford here for a few series here against the Texans second unit. After an abysmal offensive showing in Week 1 (less than 100 total yards) we expect the Lions to be focused on a better output here. After staying Under the total in Week 1 last year the Lions went Over in three straight with 47, 63 and 52 total points scored. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play UNDER 36 Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday 10:00 PM ET – The Broncos have a game under their belt as they faced the Falcons in the Hall of Fame game. Denver managed just 188 total yards of offense on 57 plays for a 3.29 yards per play average. It’s only preseason but when you consider the Falcons had the 27th ranked YPPL defense a year ago in the regular season, allowing 6.0YPPL, it’s not a great sign for Denver. The Broncos have a new offensive coordinator in his first year as an OC so there is going to be a slow learning curve for the players and coaches. We don’t expect the Broncos to jeopardize starting QB Flacco more than a series if at all this week which means the QB rotation will be Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien who combined for 17 of 29 passing and just 93 yards last week. Denver is a run first offense so don’t expect to see a wide-open approach to this meaningless preseason game. The Broncos averaged 17 yards per point last year which ranked them 27th in the NFL last season. Seattle took a step back defensively last season (14th in defensive efficiency) which was an aberration as this unit has ranked in the top 10 in D.E.F.F. in six of the last eight seasons. In summary, the Broncos will have a hard time moving the football here and scoring points. So that leaves us with the Seahawks putting up points against Denver. The Broncos defense did not play well last week against the Falcons and we expect a drastic improvement from that game to this one. New head coach Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and is the guy that orchestrated the Bears incredible defense last season. He inherits a Denver defense that was 5th best in the league last year by our metrics. The Broncos defense faced seven offenses that ranked 9th or better in the NFL last season, including the Chiefs (twice) who were #1, Rams once #2 and the Chargers (twice) who were 3rd.  Seattle is playing their opening preseason game and will have most of their regulars on the bench here including Russell Wilson who makes this offense go. As of this writing QB Geno Smith is the #2 guy behind Wilson but he sat out practice this week with a minor knee injury. That means former Broncos QB Paxton Lynch could play 3 quarters Thursday, which is great for the Under bettors. Under Pete Carroll, in games #1 and #2 of the exhibition season, the Seahawks have stayed Under the total in 7 of ten the past five years. Volume of money, bets and line movements have us on the Under 36 here.

ASA play UNDER 34.5 Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons, 8PM ET Thursday H.O.F. Game – The public money flowed in on the Over when this game opened with a number of 34 posted on the game. Even with a sizeable investment by public bettors the line has not fluctuated up any. That ‘tell’ has us on the bet the oddsmakers don’t want us to make here, the Under! On the field we have several new coaches trying to implement new systems and it’s going to take more time for players to get on the same page. Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who is replacing Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons offense will be directed by young QB Benkert who was 28 of 64 for 347 total yards and 4 INT’s last preseason. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn doesn’t put much emphasis on exhibition games as he’s 4-12 SU lifetime. Last year Atlanta managed just 27 total points in four games. Quinn will take over the defense this year so we should see an improvement on that side of the football after ranking near the bottom of the league in several key categories. Taking over in Denver is Vic Fangio who is known for his defensive prowess. Fangio was the DC in Chicago last year which had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit in the NFL. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Broncos also have a new OC in Rich Scangarello who is making his debut as an offensive coordinator after a 2-year stint as a quarterback coach in San Francisco. In other words, a new system means a longer learning curve and slower results to start the season. Not to mention we will see a heavy dose of unproven QB’s for the Broncos with Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan and Brett Rypien. Denver had the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL last year and will only get better this season which will make if very tough for Atlanta to score on tonight. Any way we cut it we don’t see these two teams scoring more than 28 total points. The bet here is UNDER.