ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six.

ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points.

ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one.

ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls!

#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Yeah, we know…how can you bet against the Bucks who have won 16 straight games? Philly has a lineup that can compete with Milwaukee and Joel Embiid will put forth extra effort in a marquee matchup with Giannis. The Sixers are coming off a loss in Dallas and they’ve been good in this situation with a 6-2 record in their last eight games when coming off a loss. Overall, the 76ers are 12-9 ATS when off a loss and they have an average +/- in those games of +5.5PPG. Philly is 14-14 ATS on the road this season, but they do own a positive differential at +1.9PPG. Granted the Bucks are 27-5 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.4PPG, but the underdog has covered and won outright in 3 of the last four meetings. Grab the points with the Sixers.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs had lost 16 straight games prior to a win in Utah in their last game out. We expect them to return to their losing ways again tonight versus a surging Pacers team vying for a Playoff spot. Not only did San Antonio go on a straight up losing streak they also have just 3 covers in their last seventeen games. Indiana has won 3 of four including an impressive win over the Mavericks last time out as a +8.5 point underdog. The Spurs are bad on both ends of the court ranking last in defensive efficiency, last in points allowed per game, last in overall FG% defense and 3PT% D. It’s not much better for them on the offensive end of the court where they rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th or worse in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% defense. The Pacers should take advantage of the Spurs defense with their 11th ranked 3PT shooting offense that hit’s 36.4% of their attempts. San Antonio has failed to cover in 4 straight home games and the Pacers are on a 4-0 spread streak on the road against sub .400 teams. The Pacers have also covered 4 straight in San Antonio.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams are both in the playoff mix with the Bulls looking up at the Raptors in the standings. After losing 6 straight games going into the All-Star break the Bulls have won 2 straight over the Nets and Wizards. Toronto had won 7 of eight games prior to a loss last time out in Cleveland. In that winning stretch though, the Raptors really had just one quality win over the Memphis Grizzlies as none of the other “W’s” came against a team with a winning record. The Bulls defense is solid and will be better with the addition of Patrick Beverly who was recently added to the roster. Chicago allows the 10th fewest points in the league, own the 9th best FG% defense and 10th best 3PT% D. Toronto will struggle to score here with an offense that ranks 27th in team FG% and 3PT%. Offensively the Bulls own the 6th best shooting percentage in the league and rank 16th in 3PT%. The Raptors are 27th in FG% defense and 3PT% defense. Chicago has an average Margin of Victory on the road at -2.9PPG. Toronto has a +/- of +2.5PPG at home. Both of those averages clearly favor Chicago in this matchup. In what shapes up to be a lower scoring game we will gladly grab the points with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 vs Miami Heat, 7:10 PM ET - Something is going on in Miami that can’t be figured out right now as this team just isn’t competitive. The Heat have lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last ten overall. On the season they have struggled on the road with a 13-19 SU record with an average +/- of -2.3PPG. Miami is just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six away from home with the lone win coming in OT against the Magic. This will be the first meeting of the season between these two teams after the Heat eliminated the 76ers from the Playoffs a year ago. Philly is 5-1 SU and ATS their last six games but are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics on Saturday. The Celtics had a great shooting night which is surprising considering the Sixers own the 13th best FG% defense and 3rd best 3-point percentage D. Philly is 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this season and 24-9 SU overall at home. They win their home games by an average of +5.7PPG. and own a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating on their own court. Whatever has happened behind the scenes with Miami is a mystery right now but we don’t see things changing in this scenario. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +5.5 @ Atlanta Hawks, 3:10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off very different results as the Nets were just destroyed in Chicago by the Bulls 87-131, while the Hawks beat Cleveland at home 136-119. So off those results why would we back the Nets? Let’s not forget these guys are professionals and some of the most competitive players on the planet. That humiliating loss should have them focused and motivated here. Meanwhile the Hawks could be a little “fat” coming off that blowout win which has support from their 11-18 ATS mark when coming off a win this season. The Hawks are 16-12 SU at home this season with an average +/- of plus +1.8PPG. As a home favorite this season the Hawks are 10-13 ATS. Brooklyn is solid as a Dog this season with a 14-10 ATS record overall. They are 13-11 ATS when coming off a loss overall, 5-1 their last six. The Nets have an overall winning record on the road this season at 16-14 with an average +/- of -2.4PPG. The Hawks rank 21st in opponents FG% allowed and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team in the NBA. This Nets roster still has plenty of talented players and they’ll keep this game close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +6.5 vs LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - This is an inflated number for several reasons including the Russell Westbrook signing by the Clippers and the fact the Kings are coming off a game last night. But, while Westbrook is an incredible talent, he may also be a disruptive force early on with the Clippers as he tries to fit in. Secondly, the Kings played last night but it was a blowout win and they kept their minutes down for the starters, plus they are coming off the extended break from the All-Star game. The Kings own the 7th best average point differential on the road this season at -0.7PPG and have a winning straight up record at 15-13. The Clippers on the other hand are 15-13 SU at home but have the 22nd worst average MOV at +1.3PPG. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season for these two teams and the Kings have covered both prior to this game. In fact, Sacramento has covered 5 of the last seven meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors are on an impressive 5-1 SU run in their last six games but take a look at who they’ve beaten. Those wins have come against 24-35 Magic, 15-44 Pistons, 14-45 Spurs, 13-45 Rockets and one quality win against the Grizzlies. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last six games and are playing better with Brandon Ingram back in the lineup. The two losses in that stretch came against the Cavaliers and new look Lakers. Toronto I 18-13 SU at home this season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. New Orleans is 10-19 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Clearly neither of those average point differential differences are enough for the Raptors to cover this number. The Raptors are one of the worst overall shooting and 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and will have a tough time scoring against this Pelicans defense that is 7th best in the league in defensive efficiency ratings. The Pelicans have had great success in this series with 5 straight covers overall and a 5-1 ATS record their last six visits to Toronto.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 vs Utah Jazz, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a loss in Boston on the 12th and will look to rebound against the Jazz back at home. Utah is off a road win in Indianapolis on the 13th but are just 3-6 SU their last nine games. Memphis is 23-5 SU at home with the 2nd best average Margin of Victory on their home court at +10.5PPG. When coming off a loss and playing at home the Grizz are 6-3 SU and ATS. Utah is 11-18 SU for the season on the road with a negative differential of -2.4PPG. The last time these two teams met on this court was back on Jan 8th with the Grizzlies winning 123-118 as a -5.5-point favorite. Memphis played that game without Ja Morant or Steven Adams and Utah had Mike Conley. The home team has won 5 straight in this series and with the Grizzlies +/- at home we like them to win and do so by their average MOV. Lay it!

ASA Top Play on 10* LA Clippers -8 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Clippers catch a break here having been off since Feb 10th, a home game and loss to Milwaukee. The Warriors on the other hand are coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. That typically means “load management” for a few Warrior starters. Golden State is the worst spread record team in the NBA on the road this season with an 8-19 ATS record and own a negative average point differential of -7.8PPG. As we mentioned the Clippers are rested which means Leonard and George will be in the lineup. When playing with 3 days rest the Clippers are 26-7-1 ATS their last 34. Los Angeles is playing with same season revenge here too as they lost in Golden State by 17-points earlier this season. Scheduling is a key factor here so we’ll lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +8 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - This line is clearly inflated with the hype surrounding Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic joining forces in Dallas. I find it very interesting Kyrie has played with some of the biggest names in the game (LeBron, KD, Tatum, Harden) and yet is never happy? I think in the end this will be another failed experiment in Dallas as you have two ball-dominant point guards and sharing the rock isn’t a priority for either. In any case, the Mavericks will take time to adjust and solidify rotations and it’s not like they were a great favorite this season. The Mavs are 12-25-2 ATS as a chalk this season with a +/- in those games of +3.6PPG (not enough to cover here). Minnesota has a winning spread record as a dog at 16-14 ATS with an average differential of minus -2.2PPG. The Wolves brought in vet point guard Michael Conley which should pay immediate dividends as his pick and roll skills are much better than since departed Russell. Minnesota is 6-4 SU their last ten games with some impressive wins over some of the better teams in the West. Minnesota won earlier this season at home by 10-points, then played the Mavs tough in Dallas in a 5-point loss. We expect another close game here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 1 PM ET - We like the Grizzlies plus the points in this NBA showdown. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA but Memphis is a team that can certainly come out of the West. The Grizzlies have had some ups and downs with players missing with injuries but have put together two strong games in a row beating Chicago and Minnesota. Going into the trade deadline there were rumors the Grizzlies were active, but now that everyone knows they are staying in Memphis they can relax and play. The Celtics are dealing with a few key injuries to starters Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, which is significant when you’re trying to stop Ja Morant. Memphis and Boston rank 2nd and 5th in defensive efficiency so they are essentially even. Boston has a much better overall offensive efficiency but Memphis can get some easy opportunities with their transition game which is the 3rd best in the league. Boston is also reliant on their 3-points shooting but the Grizzlies are solid in defending the arc. The line on this game is set this low for a reason and looks like a trap. Bet Memphis plus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +5 at Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - One negative here is scheduling as the Pacers just played last night at home versus the Suns and lost. But, Indiana is 7-4 SU this season when playing without rest this season and they kept all of the starters minutes to under 30. Washington beat Charlotte at home as a -3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. If the Wizards were just favored by -3.5 versus Charlotte, why are they -5 versus a better Indiana team? Washington is 13-12 SU at home this season with an average point differential of -0.7PPG which is 26th in the NBA. As a home favorite, Washington is 5-8-1 ATS, minus -0.4PPG. Indiana is a respectable 17-14 ATS when coming off a loss this season, 3-1 in their last four. Our model has Washington favored by -2.5 points here so let’s grab the value with Indiana

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET - These two teams don’t like each other after a very intense playoff series a year ago. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the regular season with the home team having won and covered the three previous clashes. The last confrontation was recently in late January in Minnesota with the Wolves winning by 11-points. Memphis made a quiet move at the trade deadline but did bring in shooter Luke Kennard. Minnesota dumped De’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt and brought in vet Mike Connelly and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. For our purposes we doubt any of these players will be in the lineups tonight. Memphis had lost 3 straight games prior to beating Chicago by 15-points at home in their most recent game. Minnesota is coming off a 143-118 win at Utah, but prior to that game gave up 146 in a loss to the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have the 2nd best +/- at home this season of +10.1PPG and an overall record of 22-5 SU. Dating back to the start of last season the Grizz are 47-26-1 ATS at home (best record in the NBA) with an average Margin of Victory of +9.6PPG. As a road dog the Wolves are an mediocre 37-35 ATS since the start of the 2021 season. Playing with quick revenge we like the Grizzlies big at home tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks are playing well right now having won 9 of their last ten games but 7 of those were at home. Now they go on the road where they are 10-12-3 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.2PPG. Portland is returning home after going 2-1 on their road trip with the most recent game being a loss. The Blazers are a profitable 14-11 ATS at home this season with a +4.5PPG average Margin of Victory. In the lone meeting earlier this season the Blazers lost by 8-points in Milwaukee but were without Dame Lilliard. We get a good team, off a loss and as a home underdog. Back the Blazers!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 vs Denver Nuggets, 7:10 PM ET - This is a quick revenger game for the Timberwolves as they recently lost in Denver by 4-points as a +9-point underdog. Earlier in January they did beat the Nuggets at home by 13-points. Minnesota has had decent success in this series with 5 straight covers and a 4-1 SU mark. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Magic and have been solid this season when off an “L” with a 9-4 SU record. Denver is in a much tougher scheduling situation here having just played last night versus the Hawks. This will also be the Nuggets 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Minnesota is in a great spot to get even with the Nuggets after a recent loss in Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Magic continue to be one of the best spread record teams in the NBA at 29-22-1 ATS. They have covered 7 of their last ten games and have a 27-18-1 ATS record as a dog. As an Underdog they have a negative differential of minus -3.3PPG and cover those games by +3.7PPG. Minnesota is 11-16 ATS as a favorite this season with an average +/- of +1.6PPG. As a home chalk the Wolves are 6-10 ATS +1.1PPG. When Orlando has faced a Western Conference team this season, they have covered 68.4% of the time with a 13-6-1 ATS record. When it comes to facing the East the Wolves are 7-11 ATS or 38.9%. The Magic have owned the Timberwolves with a 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET- The Bucks are in a groove right now with five straight wins and 7 victories in their last eight games. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home also with the closest win coming by 8-points to the Nuggets and Raptors. The Bucks were just favored by -12.5 points against the Nuggets and are now laying marginal number against the Clippers. Milwaukee has the 5th best average MOV at home this season at +7.7PPG. The Clippers are also playing well with a 6-1 SU record their last seven games. They are coming off a win in Chicago as a -2.5-point favorite. Recently the Clippers were a +2-point dog at Dallas when both Leonard and George were in the lineup. That tells us the Bucks should be a bigger chalk here. LA is 15-14 SU on the road this season but they do have a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Both teams are getting healthy and playing well right now but at this price we have to back the home team.

ASA Top Play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +8.5 @ Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - The Celtics just faced the Lakers and Knicks at home and were favored by the same number as they are tonight versus a better Nets team. Even without Kevin Durant the Nets rate higher than both of those teams in our power rankings. Boston split with those teams, losing to the Knicks in OT and beating the Lakers in OT. Brooklyn beat both the Lakers and Knicks by 17 and 7-points. *Note the Lakers did rest LeBron and AD against the Nets. Back on Jan 12th the Celtics beat the Nets by 11-points in Brooklyn. The big difference was the Celtics advantage on the boards +17 rebounds. The Celtics own the 3rd best average MOV at home of +8.6PPG, are 4th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.201PPP and 11th in DEFF at 1.116PPP. Brooklyn has the 4th best average point differential on the road at +1.2PPG, 27th in OEFF, but 11th in DEFF. Overall the Nets offensive efficiency has been much better in their last five games at 1.269PPP. When we analyze most recent statistical data from Jan 1st on, the Nets and Celtics have the exact same DEFF at 1.120PPP, but offensively the Nets have a slight edge in OEFF at 1.160 to 1.140. In each teams last ten games the Nets have a better +/- at +4.3PPG compared to Boston’s -4.2PPG. Nets a dog of 5 or more points just 5 times all season 5-0 ATS. Brooklyn on 5-1 ATS streak their last six, Celtics 0-6 ATS streak.

ASA Top Play On 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +7.5 vs. Miami Heat – 8:10 PM ET - The Magic continue to reward their backers with a 14-7 ATS record when getting more than +7.5-points this season. Miami has struggled in the role of a favorite with a 5-10 ATS mark when laying -5 or more points. Overall, the Heat are 9-15-1 ATS at home with a negative differential of minus -1.4PPG. Orlando is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record greater than .600. Miami could let down here as they are coming off a huge home win over a big rival in the Boston Celtics. Orlando has won 3 of their last four games and 2 straight. Orlando has covered 6 of the last eight in the Florida rivalry and is a live dog here.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 vs Toronto Raptors, 10 PM ET - The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.

ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS +5.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1/23 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just squared off in Minnesota on Saturday with the Wolves winning by 9-points. Minnesota was favored by 8-points at home and are now laying -5.5 on the road which doesn’t equate. Houston played well the other night but 21-turnovers and 14 missed free throws turned out to be the difference. We expect them to play much better at home and also feel it’s highly unlikely Anthony Edwards can produce another 44-point outing as he did Saturday. On the season the Rockets have an average +- at home of minus -4.5PPG while the Wolves road differential is -2.7PPG. As a home dog this season the Rockets have a 9-8-2 ATS record but more importantly their average loss margin is just -3.6PPG which is obviously within tonight’s number. We like the home dog in this situation and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8:40 PM ET - Most times ‘revenge’ doesn’t work in the NBA but it’s certainly a factor in this high-profile showdown. In late December the Warriors visited the Nets in Brooklyn and were drilled 143-113. Golden State sat Curry, Wiggins, Thompson and Green in that game who are all available today. At first glance, this looks like a high number but considering the Nets were just plus +5 at Utah, it makes sense a healthy GST team is -7.5. Golden State has been really good at home this year with a 17-5 SU record and an average plus/minus of +6.7PPG. Brooklyn can boast some solid road numbers, but a big portion of those wins came with Kevin Durant on the floor who is out tonight. We will lay the points with Golden State.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -7 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The most important aspect of handicapping the Spurs is knowing who’s playing and who isn’t. Considering they sat Paul George and Kawhi Leonard last game for load management it’s safe to assume both will play tonight. Neither are on the injury report and the line reflects they’ll be in the lineup. The Clippers are off a bad loss to the Jazz and look to rebound here against a Spurs team off a rare win over the Nets. San Antonio is 2-9 SU their last eleven games and 9-16 SU for the year at home. The Spurs have the 2nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG. San Antonio is 2nd to last in the league in home defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession. They aren’t much better offensively, ranking 27th in OEFF when at home. Despite having a very depleted roster for most of the season the Clippers still boast the 9th best defensive efficiency allowing just 1.124PPP. The Spurs were recently +6.5 at home versus the Kings and lost by 13. They were +9 on a neutral court versus the Warriors and lost by 31. The betting action on this game clearly shows sharp money on the Clippers and we’ll follow the money!

ASA top play on 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +3.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Health is a big part of the equation tonight as the Hawks are healthy and the Mavericks are not. Atlanta has been hit hard with injuries for most of the season but now have everyone back including center Clint Capela. The Mavericks are really banged up right now with 3 key role players all out with Kleber, Finney-Smith and Josh Green all sidelined. To make matters worse, several players are playing through nagging injuries and are not 100%. The Hawks have won 3 straight and 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming against the Bucks. Dallas on the other hand has lost 2 straight and 4 of their last five games. With a healthy roster this Hawks team looks like a play on team in the near future and we will grab the points with them here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:10 PM ET - The Thunder have put together a really impressive stretch of games recently with wins over the Celtics, Mavs, 76ers and Bulls. That success means they’ll have the Nets full attention on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Nets meanwhile are coming off a bad home loss to the Celtics and will be fully focused on today’s opponent. Brooklyn is 9-4 SU, 5-2 SU at home when coming off a loss this season. The Thunder have a negative point differential on the road this season of -2.8PPG while the Nets have a +/- at home of plus +6.1PPG. Brooklyn is the best shooting team in the NBA overall and the 2nd best 3-point shooting team. Even without KD we like the Nets to get a double-digit home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a satisfying home win on Friday over the Orlando Magic. The 76ers on the other hand were off last night and are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Thunder. Utah has won 2 straight games but had lost 7 of their previous eight. Philly is finally getting healthy and we expect a positive trend moving forward with a roster capable of winning the East. The Jazz have a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but are far worse defensively, ranking 26th in the NBA in DEFF. Philly on the other hand owns the 4th best defensive efficiency ranking in the league. The Sixers should get plenty of easy scoring opportunities as the Jazz are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed in the paint at 55.5 per game. Embiid who is averaging 33.5PPG should feast on the Jazz in the interior. Scheduling and previous game results make the 76ers the play on team here.

ASA top play on 10* ORLANDO MAGIC +6 @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - With a win tonight Orlando can guarantee themselves a winning road trip on this 5-game West Coast jaunt. They already have impressive wins at Golden State and Portland as underdogs. The Jazz have cooled off since their hot start and are on a 2-7 streak in their last nine games. Utah is 13-7 SU on the season at home with a +4.7-point differential. As a favorite though the Jazz are just 8-11 SU, 6-13 ATS with a +/- of +2.1PPG. The Magic have been a profitable "play on" team as a pooch this season with a 21-15-1 ATS record and their net differential is -3.4PPG. Orlando has done well against the West this season with a 10-6-1 ATS record. Against the East, the Jazz are 5-9 ATS. We will back Orlando here and wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Hornets here as this number is higher than it should be. The Hornets just played a hot Pacers team that has won 8 of their last ten games and were +5.5-points there. The game before that they were a +10-point dog in Milwaukee and won outright. Charlotte has bad overall numbers on the road this season but recently they lost to Indiana by 5, beat the Bucks, lost to the Warriors by 5, -11 at Portland and beat the Lakers. Historically, the Raptors have enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage but this season they have been slightly above average at 12-10 SU. They have a +1.7PPG +/- at home which is 20th in the NBA. They are hovering around league average in offensive efficiency at home and near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both teams have struggled with their shooting for the season but in their last five games the Raptors are hitting below season numbers in both overall FG% and 3PT%. In fact, those percentages are brutally bad as Toronto is shooting 42% from the field and 30.9% from beyond the Arc in their last five games. Charlotte has covered 18 of the last 26 as the visitor in this series. Grab the inflated points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6 vs Orlando Magic, 10 PM ET - These two teams are coming off opposite results which makes the Kings the play on team here and the Magic the play against. Orlando is off a big road win over the Warriors as a +6.5-point underdog. They face a hungry Kings team that is off a bitter 2-point loss to the Lakers. Sacramento has a +/- at home of +3.3PPG and stand 11-9 SU on the season on their home court. Orlando has the 25th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG and is 5-13 away from home. The Kings have lost 2 straight at home and will be up for this game against a young Magic team. Orlando is an exciting team in the league but playing at a consistent level is always difficult for a young roster. Bet the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -6 vs Orlando Magic, 8:30 PM ET - We like how this young Magic team is starting to come together but this isn’t a great spot for them and the price is right to play against them. Consider this: The Magic were just +6.5-points at home against Memphis and are not catching that same number in Golden State. Let’s face it, the Warriors aren’t the team they were a year ago with injuries taking a toll, but they are still 17-3 SU at home with a +/- of +8.7PPG. That differential is the 4th best average in the NBA. Orlando is 4-13 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 25th worst. Golden State lost at home to Detroit which makes them a ‘play on’ here. The Warriors are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS this season at home when off a loss. Orlando doesn’t bounce back like the Warriors do, the Magic are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS when on the road coming off a beat. Orlando beat Golden State by 1-point at home earlier in the season which makes this a payback game for Golden State. Lay the points

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - We were hoping this line would be lower than it is given the circumstances but the oddsmakers know what they’re doing and aren’t fooled by the Mavs current 7-game winning streak. Don’t get me wrong, winning 7 in a row in the NBA is difficult, but the Mavs have faced a soft stretch of teams and only one of those foes has a current winning record. In fact, those 7-teams have a combined record of 98-170 on the season. We like playing elite teams off a loss and the Celtics were embarrassed last time out against the Thunder in a 117-150 beat-down. Not one of the 23 or more win teams in the NBA have a losing straight up record this season when coming off a loss. There are 7 teams in the league right now that have 23+ wins and they are a combined 59-40 SU when coming off a loss. Boston holds advantages in both offensive and defensive efficiency stats for the season and have better overall point differentials. Boston will get back on track tonight with a solid road victory in Dallas.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Orlando Magic -2 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - Both teams will have adjusted rosters here as OKC is missing All-Star guard Gilgeous-Alexander, while the Magic have several suspensions including both Wagners and Bol Bol. We don’t mind the Magic having a shorter rotation tonight as they’ve been off since last Friday so fatigue shouldn’t be a factor. Orlando had won 8 of nine games before losing their three most recent, the last coming at home. That helps set up tonight’s play on a rested, focused Orlando team. OKC is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they put up 150 on the Celtics last night. The Thunder shot well above season averages as they hit 59% overall and made 20 of 40 3-pointers or 50%. Oklahoma City is 1-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -5.2PPG. The Magic are 5-2 SU their last seven home games and will get a much-needed home victory here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a plug your nose type bet as we are going against a Nuggets team on a 10-2 run and playing on a Wolves team that has lost 6 straight. But ask yourself this, why are the Nuggets this low of a favorite? Minnesota is coming off a demoralizing home loss to the Pistons on Saturday which prompted a player only meeting. This team was considered a strong playoff team this season but the injury to Karl Anthony Towns has hurt more than expected. Denver is red hot, but they are also coming off a big home win yesterday against the Celtics which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them. This is also Denver’s 5th game in seven days so fatigue will be a major factor here. Denver hasn’t been a trustworthy road favorite with a 15-18 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2021 season. Minnesota is a respectable 37-26 SU at home since 2021. We like the Wolves to get this much needed home win over a spent Nuggets team.

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 7:40PM ET

The Pacers were essentially blown out in New Orleans last night as they trailed big early on and were never competitive. Tonight they return home to face a Hawks team that is finally getting healthy. The Hawks had their starting five back for their game against the Pistons on Dec 23rd and won 130-105. Atlanta comes into this game fresh and with a huge match up advantage over the Pacers. Last season the Hawks won (and covered) all 4 meetings with the Pacers including a pair of wins on this court. Atlanta should get plenty of second-chance opportunities in this game with their 10th best offensive rebounding unit going up against the Pacers 28th ranked defensive rebounding. Indiana also relies heavily on their 3-points shooting (11th) but the Hawks hold opponents to the 4th lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA. In their last five games the Hawks have a +/- of +6.4PPG. The Pacers have a negative differential of minus -4.2PPG in that same stretch. Take the visiting Hawks in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - There is some value in this number as the Pacers were just +9.5 points at Boston and +8 at Cleveland. In fact, these two teams played on Dec. 12th in Indy and the Heat were favored by -3.5-points there which means this line should be higher than it is. We also like the situation with the Pacers off a big upset win in Boston, while the Heat are off an upset home loss to the Bulls. Miami had won 4 straight games and seemed to be finding their groove which has been missing for much of the season early on. Both teams are 16-16 SU on the season, but we feel the Heat can contend in the East, but the Pacers cannot. Miami has a clear advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA compared to the Pacers 19th rank. Indiana is better overall in offensive efficiency this season but in their last five games the Pacers OEFF is 1.096 which ranks 26th in the NBA. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS their last six when coming off a win. Since the start of last season, the Heat are 29-20 ATS when coming off a loss. We will acknowledge the Heat have been horrible ATS at home this season with a 3-12-1 record but that means a correction is in order.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3 vs LA Clippers, 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers are playing at another level right now with 6 straight wins to improve to 18-12 on the season. At home they are 13-5 SU with an average +/- of plus +6.8PPG which ranks 9th best. The Clippers are also playing well and are starting to get healthy but this will be their first road game since Dec 10th. LA is 8-7 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. The Clippers have a +9PPG average Margin of Victory in their last five games (all at home) but the 76ers are better yet at +14.6PPG in their last five. Philly has the 9th best offensive efficiency rating in the league's last 5-game span compared to the Clippers who rank 28th. Los Angeles has the best overall DEFF ratings in the last five games but the 76ers are 2nd. Philadelphia has covered 10 of the last thirteen and will get another win and cover here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans have hit a rough patch of games with 4 straight losses but let’s consider who those L’s came against. They lost a pair of games to a hot Jazz team, lost in Phoenix and home to the Bucks. Off that home loss we like them to explode with a big win today against the Spurs. San Antonio got a road win last time out against the Rockets but now steps up in class to face the Pelicans. New Orleans has the 8th best scoring differential at home this season of +7.8PPG and a 12-4 SU record. The Spurs have a respectable 5-8 SU road record but they are getting beat by an average of -8.9PPG which is the 3rd highest average in the NBA. San Antonio is one of, if not the worst defense team in the NBA ranking 30th in points allowed per game, FG% defense and 3-point percentage D. They are also mid-20’s in most offensive categories. The Pelicans are 7th in DEFF and 5th in OEFF and the far superior team in this setting and playing with a chip on their shoulders. New Orleans has faced the Spurs twice this season in San Antonio and was favored by -5.5 and -7.5 points in those two games. Even without Zion Williamson this is a bargain.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Orlando Magic, 3 PM ET - The Celtics were not in a good situation on Friday night when they hosted the Magic and lost outright as a 13-point favorite. They had just come off a big 6-game road trip and a tough OT win over the Lakers. Now we get a much better line with the Celtics in immediate revenge. Boston has the best overall point differential in the NBA and 3rd best average scoring margin when at home of +10.2PPG. They are 11-3 SU at home and 4-1 SU home off a loss. Overall the Celtics are 7-5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. Orlando is just 2-11 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -7.6PPG which is the 5th worst average in the NBA. Boston will settle in at home today and get a blowout win.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - These two teams just met in Dallas on the 14th with the Cavs winning 105-90 as a +2.5-point Dog. We don’t see anything changing here and expect another double-digit win by Cleveland. In the game the other night the Cavs double-teamed Doncic in the first half and held him to a 9 of 23 shooting night. Overall, the Maverick shot just 39% for the game and were outrebounded by 10. The Cavs shot 53% for the game and dominated in the paint with 52 points compared to 26 for Dallas. Both teams are off games Friday night, but the Cavs are at home while the Mavs have to travel. The venue has a lot to do with this selection as the Mavs are 3-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -4.5PPG (9th worst). Cleveland is polar opposite with a 12-2 SU record at home and a +10.4PPG differential which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas owns the 27th worst road defensive efficiency and 26th worst OEFF. Dallas is 1-7 ATS their last eight games on the road versus a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home. Don’t worry about the revenge factor here, bet the home team Cavs.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here.

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.