ASA NBA play on Philadelphia 76ers -5 at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - It’s hard to imagine if the NBA playoffs where to start today, the 76ers would be out. This team was one of the odds-on favorites to come out of the East this season but early season injuries have tempered their success. The biggest factor has been the absence of Joel Embiid who has played in just 10 games this season. The Sixers needed to adjust to him back in the lineup and lost 4 games in a row. Since then, the 76ers have gone 5-1 SU with 4 straight wins. In this current 4 game winning streak with Embiid in the lineup they have a very impressive road win at Boston. Portland on the other hand was projected to struggle again this season after winning just 21 games a season ago. The Blazers are 11-20 SU on the season with the 3rd worst scoring differential at minus -8.9ppg. Even with a winning home record they have a negative average point differential of -6.1ppg. Philadelphia has taken care of lesser opponents this season on the road with a 5-2 SU record as a road favorite, winning by an average of +4.4ppg. Again, the majority of those games come without either Embiid, Maxey or George on the floor all at the same time. Portland has been a respectable home dog this season but still has a negative differential of minus -3.9ppg. We feel Philly is turning the corner and in a situation where they can’t take wins for granted. Going back to the start of last season the 76ers are 16-10 ATS laying points on the road and they win those games by an average of +6.8ppg. Lay it here with Philadelphia.

ASA NBA top play on Detroit Pistons +5.5 at Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - If you are not paying attention to the NBA you probably haven’t noticed the improvement of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has as many wins today (14) as they did the entire season a year ago. They are slightly below average defensively in Efficiency ratings (16th) allowing 1.142-points per possession. On the season they rank 22nd in OEFF but in their last five games they are scoring 1.123-points per possession which is also around league average. Denver has slipped defensively this season and will be without their best defender in this game with Aaron Gordon out. The Nuggets played a big game last night against the Cavaliers making this the second night of a back-to-back. This will also be the Nugs 4th game in six days, 5th in seven. The Pistons have won 3 straight road games at Phoenix, Lakers and Kings and are also 4-1 their last five away from home. Denver has an average +/- at home of just +2.6ppg which is significantly lower than their season average at home a year ago of +8.1ppg. Another sign of the Pistons improvement is their road scoring differential of -0.1ppg, 12th best in the NBA. Grab the points with Detroit here.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - Looking at the Clippers recent stretch of games we see they were recently a +3-point home dog to Houston, Minnesota and Denver. In the games against the Rockets and Wolves the Clippers were without key pieces as Powell and Harden each missed a game. The Clippers lost both. Prior to those two games, with Powell/Harden they beat the Nuggets at home 126-122. The reason we bring that up is this: The Warriors aren’t as good as those three teams, yet are favored on the road in Los Angeles? Golden State is coming off an emotional Christmas Day loss to the Lakers and slipped to 1-5 SU in their last six games. For the season the Clippers rank 11th in Offensive Efficiency, the Warriors rank 13th. Defensively, the Clippers hold the edge with the 6th best Defensive Efficiency rating compared to the Warriors 8th ranking. When we look exclusively at the last 10 games of each team we see the Clippers have the better overall Net Rating of +1.5 compared to the Warriors NR of -6.7. Golden State lives and dies by the 3-pointer (12th in 3PT%), but the Clippers defend the arc as well as anyone in the league allowing 34.3% (4th). The Clippers have won 5 straight in the rivalry including two games this season. We expect them to make it 3 in a row on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This will be the third meeting this season between these two teams with the Bulls winning both clashes thus far. Some bettors might want to back the Hawks with revenge but not us. This is a game where the Hawks have a hard time matching up against the Bulls. Chicago’s two wins against Atlanta have come by 12 and 14-points. Chicago has won 3 straight in the series and 5 of the last six. If we look at each teams last five games we find the Bulls have a Net Rating of -4.5 compared to the Hawks NR of -1.5. Chicago has won 3 straight on the road and have a Net scoring differential of -0.5ppg when away from home which ranks 14th in the NBA. Atlanta is 8-7 SU at home this season with the 19th worst average scoring margin of -2.6ppg. As a home favorite the Hawks are 2-7 ATS with a negative differential of minus -2.1ppg. Neither team is good defensively and the Bulls shoot it better at 46.8% overall (10th) and 37% (9th) from deep compared to the Hawks who shoot 46.3% (15th) and 35% (21st). Grab the points and the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on LA Lakers +4 at Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Lakers are always a tricky team to bet on because you never know if LeBron/AD is going to play or not. LeBron was away from the team recently for unknown reasons, other than the fallout from his Diddy party comments on social media. With the TV lights on LBJ will be in the lineup tonight against the Warriors. Both teams are off losses as the Lakers lost to the Pistons at home, the Warriors lost to the Pacers. Golden State and Los Angeles both have really good results off a loss so that is basically a wash. If we look at the full season stats we see the Warriors have a very slight edge in Offensive Efficiency, and a significant advantage in Defensive Efficiency. If we look at each team's last five games though we see the opposite with the OEFF numbers being about even, but the Lakers defense over the last five games has been outstanding and the Warriors has not. Golden State currently ranks 26th in DEFF over the last 5 games allowing 1.183PPP, the Lakers D has allowed 1.037PPP in that same stretch of games. We can’t trust a Warriors defense that gave up 143+ points in two consecutive games in the past two weeks. As an NBA fan, enjoy what might be the last meaningful game between two future Hall of Famers in LeBron and Steph Curry.

ASA NBA play on Phoenix Suns +6 at Denver Nuggets – 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Suns here who last played on Thursday night at home against the Pistons. Phoenix lost that game and the game previous to Indiana, both at home. Kevin Durant certainly did everything in his power to carry this Suns team with 37pts, 10rebs and 6ass against the Pacers and 43pts, 5rebs and 6ass against the Pistons. Phoenix is a respectable 5-7 SU on the road this season. Denver is coming off a game Sunday at New Orleans and played two other road games at the Kings and Blazers prior to that game. Denver has been very good off a loss since the start of last season with a 13-4 SU record and an average MOV of +6.5ppg. Phoenix though is 20-6 SU since the start of last year with an average+/- of +7.7ppg. Phoenix has certainly underachieved this season, but the same can be said about the Nuggets. Denver has a Net rating of +2.4 while the Suns are -0.9. The Suns beat this Nuggets team two out of three meetings last season with both wins coming in Denver. KD will keep the Suns in that entire game and cover the spread in the process.

ASA NBA play on Miami Heat +1.5 vs OKC Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - The NBA schedule makers didn’t do the Thunder any favors with this second game in two nights for the Thunder after playing in Vegas in the Cup Finals against the Bucks. Miami is 4-1 SU their last five games with their most recent being a 1-point loss in Detroit. Prior to that the Heat won 4 straight at home with quality wins against the Raptors, Cavs, Suns and Lakers. In fact, the Heat are 7-1 SU their last seven home games and the lone loss was by 3-points to the red-hot Bucks. If we take a closer look at Miami and their last 5 games, we see they have the second-best Net rating in that stretch of games. The team ahead of them in that stat category is the OKC Thunder but again this is a tough spot for them coming off a game against Orlando last night. Miami has a profitable spread record when playing with a rest advantage of 13-10 ATS dating back to last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +5.4ppg. Miami is also 7-3 ATS this season when coming off a loss. It’s tough to bet against OKC but we’ll make an exception tonight and take Miami.

ASA NBA play on Detroit Pistons -4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA AGAIN this season and the Pistons have improved significantly after their 14 wins season a year ago. The Jazz have lost 14 of their last 16 games and 10 of those losses have been by six points or more. Utah has a negative scoring margin of -10.6ppg which is the 28th highest number in the NBA. Utah is the worst defensive team in the league in terms of Efficiency rating allowing 1.215-points per possession. The Jazz are 29th in opponents FG% defense at 48.7%, 26th in 3PT% allowed at 37.4% and have given up an average of 121.8ppg over their last 10 games. Detroit is slightly below average in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rating despite facing a difficult schedule. The Pistons are coming off a confidence building win against the Heat at home in their most recent game and we are betting that momentum will carry over here against a bad Jazz team.

ASA NBA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks – Cup Finals 8:30 PM ET - If you have paid attention to our preseason suggestions, we like the Thunder to win it all this season. They had one of the best rosters in the league, one of the 5 very best players, and then went out and added a few key pieces. The Bucks got off to a slow start but are playing extremely well right now and look like a contender in the East. OKC has the best average scoring margin in the NBA at +12.1PPG, +11.8PPG on the road. Milwaukee is +1.4PPG overall on the season, -2.2PPG on the road. We mention the road differentials as this is a neutral site game in Las Vegas but do expect more Thunder fans in attendance. OKC is 1st in Defensive Efficiency and 8th in Offensive Efficiency this season. The Bucks on the other hand rank 14th in DEFF, 10th in OEFF. The Bucks have gone 12-3 SU their last fifteen games, but a closer look shows only 4 of those wins came against teams with a current winning record. OKC on the other hand has gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with wins over teams such as the Rockets, Mavericks, Lakers, Warriors and Kings. The Bucks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA defending point guards and Alexander for the Thunder should have a big night. OKC on the other hand allows the fewest point to power forwards in the NBA and will make Giannis work for every point. Bucks 0-6 SU against top 5 rated teams this season. Lay the points with the Thunder.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers -8.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 10:30 PM ET - We don’t make a habit of betting on big favorites in the NBA but will make an exception tonight with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. The Clippers have lost three straight games, but the losses have come against Minnesota, Houston and Denver, three of the better teams in the West. They are about to embark on a very tough road trip with games at Dallas twice and then Memphis which makes winning this game more important than usual. Prior to the 3-game losing streak this Clipper team hosted the Blazers who grade similarly to this Jazz team and beat them by 22-points as a -8.5-point favorite. The 5-win Jazz are a mess right now having lost 7 of their last eight games and are just 3-9 SU away from home this season. Utah has an average loss margin of -8.8ppg on the road this season which is 28th most in the NBA. The big separator for these teams is their defenses. The Clippers rank 7th in Defensive efficiency allowing just t1.097-points per possession. The Jazz on the other hand is allowing 1.199PPP which is second most in the league. The Clippers have won 3 of the last four meetings with the Jazz by 11 or more points and our model is projecting a +14 win tonight. Lay the points with the LA Clippers.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7 PM ET - You may be shocked to know that these two teams have nearly identical records at 13-11 for the Wolves and 13-12 for San Antonio. Minnesota got off to a slow start this season with the subtraction of KAT and the additions of Randle and DiVincenzo but have found a groove in recent weeks. Minnesota is 5-1 SU their last six games with the lone loss at Golden State. They have covered 4 of their last five games with impressive wins over the Clippers, Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio has won two straight games but don’t be misled by those results as the wins came against the 5-21 Pelicans and 8 win Blazers. Prior to those two wins the Spurs had lost to Phoenix, Chicago and Sacramento. Minnesota is playing better as evidenced by their Net Rating of +5.3 in their last 10 games compared to the Spurs Net Rating of -3.6 over that same period. If we look at each team's most recent 5-games we see the Wolves have a decisive advantage in Net Ratings of +15.3 (3rd best in NBA) versus the Spurs -9.8 (25th). San Antonio upset the Wolves early in the season when Minnesota was trying to figure things out. The Timberwolves are in a much better place now and won’t look past this San Antonio team with essentially the same record.

ASA NBA play on Milwaukee Bucks -7 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - We are not sure how the Magic can score enough points to keep this game close with their two leading scorers both out for this game. Orlando is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Bucks have two many options offensively with Lillard, Giannis and now K-Middleton back in the fold. After a horrendous start the Bucks are now 10-3 SU in their last 13 games and even with the three losses factored in they have an average plus/minus of +5.3PPG. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last six at home with those five wins coming by an average of +9PPG. Orlando is coming off an upset win over the Durant-less Suns two days ago and are in a tough scheduling situation here. The Magic played 5 straight road games, returned home for the game against the Suns, and are now back on the road again. The home team won all four meetings between these two last season and three of the four were blowouts by +15 or more points.

ASA NBA top play on New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:10 PM ET - We played against the Thunder the other night when they went to Toronto and destroyed the Raptors by 37-points. OKC was favored by -9.5 points in that game and are now giving the Pelicans that same number in New Orleans. At first glance, that would seem to make sense, but that number is based on the Pels 5-18 SU record, not the current lineup the Thunder are about to face tonight. New Orleans has been decimated by injuries this season and has had to play multiple bench players each and every night. They will be without Williamson tonight, but they have everyone else back including Ingram, Jones, McCollum and Murray. With that lineup intact they are coming off a 126-124 win over the Suns and they can certainly hang with the Thunder team on their home floor. The Pelicans have some added incentive here after being bounced from the playoffs a year ago by the Thunder and losing to them in November with a depleted lineup. OKC is really good this season, but they are not in a great scheduling situation here with this being their 6th road game out of their last seven overall. Not to mention they have a much bigger game on deck with the Mavericks looming.

ASA NBA play on Minnesota Timberwolves +1 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Wolves are in a much better scheduling situation here with the Warriors coming off a hard fought, physical game against the Rockets last night, while the Wolves are rested. Not only do the Wolves have a rest advantage but they didn’t have lengthy travel as they last played the Clippers on Wednesday night. Minnesota has won 3 straight and look like they are starting to figure their new roster out. Golden State played 2 recent road games including a game in Denver on Dec 3rd in higher altitude, then played last night making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. The Warriors played last night without Curry and Draymond Green. Curry will probably be back tonight, Green is out for an extended period. Minnesota beat this Warriors team all three meetings a year ago, including a pair of wins on this court. If we look at the T’Wolves last five games they have the 7th best eDIFF rating in the NBA compared to the Warriors who rank 22nd in that same category. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +9.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - This feisty Raptors team is flying under the radar right now and is a competitive out every night. Toronto is 15-7 ATS this season, 8-2 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of just -0.1ppg. In their last five games the Raptors are 16th in Offensive Efficiency and 10th Defensively. They have an average +/- of +5.6ppg in their last five outings. Toronto has won their last four home games against quality competition including the Pacers twice, the Heat and the Timberwolves. OKC is one of the top three teams in the league with Cleveland and Boston and currently sit 16-5 SU on the season. As a road favorite, they are 5-4 ATS with an average +/- of +8.6ppg. In their last five road games the Thunder have 2 losses and only one win by more than this point spread. OKC is an average shooting team at 46.2% and relies heavily on volume shooting (3rd in FGA’s). Toronto ranks 7th in fast break efficiency defense and should limit the Thunders transition opportunities. This is a big number and we like the home dog plus the point.

ASA NBA play on Atlanta Hawks +4 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - First off, scheduling favors the Hawks in this Eastern Conference showdown as the Bucks played a big game in Detroit last night while the Hawks are rested. Milwaukee beat the Pistons in Detroit to clinch a spot in the Cup Playoffs by winning their pod. The Bucks are 7-10-1 ATS their last eighteen games when playing without rest with an average +/- of +3.2ppg which doesn’t get a cover here. On the flip side, the Hawks are a profitable 12-8 ATS their last twenty when playing with a rest advantage and have an average +/- of +4.0ppg. Milwaukee is playing well right now with 7 straight wins, but the Hawks have reeled of 4 straight of their own, with a pair of those wins coming against the Cavaliers. Looking at each team’s last 5 games we find the Bucks have the 5th best eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) in the NBA at +10.4, but the Hawks are 8th at +6.3. How much will Giannis play in the second night of a B2B? Dyson Daniels is one of the best defensive guards in the league and will make Lillard work for every point tonight. Jalen Johnson is quietly putting together All-Star type numbers and returns home to Wisconsin and could have a big game. The 4-points is too attractive to pass up.

ASA NBA play on: NY Knicks -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 PM ET - This game has NBA Emirates Cup implications as the Knicks need to win to get in, the Magic can win or lose by less than 30-points to make it in. Clearly it means more for New York. The Knicks have been at home and are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans 118-85. After a slow start, the Knicks are starting to figure out their new rotations with KAT and Bridges. The Magic have been a huge surprise this season and have done it mainly without their best player in Banchero who has missed several weeks with an injury. Orlando is very good defensively but struggles on the offensive end of the court. Even though they have a better overall record at 15-7 SU compared to NY’s 12-8 SU record, the Knicks have the better eDIFF of +6.6 vs. +5.9. The Magic are 6-7 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -0.9ppg. New York is 6-2 SU at home with an average plus/minus of +14.1ppg. We like New York big in this one.

ASA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -10 vs. Atlanta Hawks – 7:10 PM ET - The Cavs are 17-1 and currently 10-0 SU at home on the season. The Cavs are winning at home by an average of +14.7ppg this season and only 2 of those 10 home wins have come by less than 10-points. The Hawks are on a 3-game losing streak and are 3-6 SU away this season with a negative average point differential of minus -6.9ppg. Going back to the start of last season the Hawks have the worst road spread record in the NBA at 18-32 ATS with an average +/- of minus 6.1ppg. The Cavs beat the Hawks 3 of four games last season with the lone loss being a meaningless game in March. Cleveland won the 3 games by an average of 17.3ppg. The Cavs last four home games have been decided by +14, +28, +14 and +18. The Hawks last two road games have been losses to the Bulls and Warriors by -14 and -23. We like Cleveland to send a message to the Hawks tonight in the first game of the back-to-back series as these team meet again on Friday.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - This is a Cup game and will have more meaning than a normal regular season game as the Rockets are 2-0 in Cup play, the T’Wolves are 1-1 and behind Houston in pool play. Minnesota has underachieved this season and stands 8-8 SU as they continue to adjust to a new lineup without Karl Anthony Towns. I’ll be honest, I’m not sold on Julius Randall long-term for the Wolves, but we’ll have to wait and see. Regardless, we like Minnesota big here at home against a Houston team that has faced a very weak schedule to get to 12-6 SU. Again, despite a schedule disparity, the Rockets with a winning record have a +8.6 eDIFF differential, compared to Minnesota who is +2.1 in eDIFF, yet are .500. Houston is starting to see some chinks in their armor as Jalen Green’s shooting is regressing after a hot start to the season. Green takes the most shots for the Rockets, but he makes just 38.2% of his field goal attempts. That coincided with the Rockets Offensive Efficiency ratings dropping from 1.128 to 1.106PPP in their last five games. Minnesota is 10th in OEFF on the season with the 4th best EFG% numbers in the NBA. Minnesota is coming off a close loss in Boston which was one of their better overall games of the season and we expect that momentum to carry over here. Minnesota is 5-2 SU at home this season and 38-18 SU dating back to the start of last season with an average +/- of +7.4ppg. The Wolves beat this Rockets team 3 times last season with all three margins by more than tonight’s spread. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +9.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The O/U on this game is very low at 206.5 which makes the points available in this game even more attractive than normal. First off, the Pistons will be a man short tonight with Cade Cunningham out with an injury. Typically, when a team loses an important piece like Cunningham, the player filling in for him rises to the occasion in that first game. The Pistons will insert Malik Beasley into the starting lineup who has been playing well off the bench averaging 15.5ppg, 3.2rpg and 1.6apg. Detroit is much better this season with a 7-10 SU record and an average margin of victory of minus -1.2ppg. That number is significantly better than the -9.1ppg differential they had last season. Detroit is 11th in defensive efficiency rating and hold teams to an average of 111.6ppg. Of the Pistons 10 losses this season only 3 have come by more than 10-points. Orlando is playing really well right now, but they are also coming off a tough 3-game West Coast Road trip and an upset win over the Lakers in their most recent game. The Magic are 10-7 SU with an average +/- of +3.6ppg. In a low scoring game we will grab the points with the live underdog.

ASA top play on Brooklyn Nets +6 at Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Despite being a dominant player in the NBA (when he plays), It’s become evident that Joel Embiid is a cancer on any roster. The Sixers are 2-12 SU this season, 3-11 ATS and don’t compete on a nightly basis. Philly has the 4th worse Efficiency Differential at -9.1 compared to Brooklyn who has an eDIFF of -3.1. Consider this, the Nets have been +8.5 and +10 at New York recently and are now catching +6-points at Philadelphia? The feisty Nets are 10-4-1 ATS this season and have been competitive in road losses at New York by 10 and 2-points, at Cleveland by 5 and Boston by 4-points all in the last month. The 76ers have one home win this season over the Charlotte Hornets by 2-points in OT. Brooklyn beat this Sixers team twice last season and can easily win this road date tonight. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic, 10:30 pm ET - The Magic are in a tough scheduling spot here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They are coming off a loss last night to the Clippers 93-104 and trailed by as many as 18-points in that game. The Magic have gotten off to a solid 9-7 SU start and are winning with their defense. The Magic rank 2nd in Defensive Efficiency allowing just 1.046 points per possession. Orlando’s offense has struggled though, ranking 25th in Offensive Efficiency. A tired Magic defense will have a tough time slowing down the Lakers offense that is 4th in points per possession at 1.184 and has scored 120 or more points in 4 of their last five games. Los Angeles has added a viable perimeter scoring option in Dalton Knecht who gives them the 3-point threat they desperately needed. The Lakers are 8th in team EFG% compared to the Magic who rank 25th in that stat category. Yes, the Lakers defense is not good, but this is a game where they can simply outscore a tired opponent. Orlando is 15-16 ATS their last 31 when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.5ppg. Lastly, when we take a closer look at the Magic’s road results we see they have a 1-6 SU record on the road against similar competition to the Lakers. Overall, the Magic have a negative road point differential of minus -6.1ppg, the Lakers home differential is an average of +8.4ppg.

ASA NBA top play on Chicago Bulls +8 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - We backed the Bucks the other night and lost when they hosted the Rockets and won but failed to cover the -3.5-point spread. Milwaukee is just not the team everyone expected them to be this season with a 5-9 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.1ppg (19th). The Bulls are 6-9 SU this season and have already beaten this Milwaukee team this season by double-digits on this same court. Looking at the Efficiency Differential for each team we find there isn’t as big a difference as this line would suggest. The Bucks are -2.4 in eDIFF, the Bulls are -5.8. Last season in four meetings these two teams played overtime twice in close games and the other two were decided by 9 and 16-points. That was without Zach Lavine in the Bulls lineup. LaVine is averaging over 21ppg, over 3 made 3-pointers per game, 4 assists per game and over 5 rebounds per game. Chicago has won 3 of their last four road games outright with the lone loss in that stretch coming at Cleveland. We expect a close game throughout and will grab the points with the Bulls.

ASA NBA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -3 vs. Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - At some point the Bucks are going to pop and play like the team that was projected to win 50+ games. This is a spot they could certainly ‘get right’ with a home win over a solid Western Conference team in the Rockets. Houston is playing the second night of a back-to-back after defeating Chicago by 36-points yesterday. This will also be the Rockets’ 3rd game in four days and 4th in six which is tough to overcome. Milwaukee meanwhile is off an upset loss in Charlotte on Saturday after a missed call late in the game cost them the ‘W’. Consider this, the Bucks were favored by 2-points earlier this month at home against the Cavaliers who might be the best team in the NBA and are now laying nearly that same number against the Rockets. This is a perfect opportunity to buy low on the Bucks who are 69-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.2ppg since 2022. In that same time frame the Rockets are 26-62 SU on the road with a negative point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Yes, this Houston team is improved and playing well but Giannis and the Bucks should get this home win by 6+ points.

ASA top play on Washington Wizards +9.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - The Wizards are 2-8 SU this season and the two wins have come against this Hawks team back in October. Washington matches up well with the Hawks and can stay within this margin for the third time this season. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season as a favorite, 1-6 ATS overall with a negative point differential of minus -5.4ppg. We don’t think a team with these credentials should be laying nearly double-digits against anyone in the league. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league with the Hawks allowing 1.182-points per possession while the Wiz give up 1.197PPP. Washington should have success from beyond the arc with the 11th best 3PT% in the NBA going up against a Hawks defense that ranks 28th in 3PT% against. Atlanta is coming off a huge road win in Boston and could suffer a hangover effect here. Washington has lost four straight on this current road trip but three of those teams were better than Atlanta. We like the dog here and the points.

ASA play on Detroit Pistons +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks will more than likely be short-handed again tonight with Damian Lillard in concussion protocol which opens the door for this fisty Pistons team. Milwaukee is 3-8 SU and actually looking up at the 5-7 Pistons in the Central Division standings and the reality is the Pistons have been the better team to this point. Detroit rates slightly low than the Bucks in Offensive Efficiency but rate ahead of them defensively. The Pistons overall Efficiency differential is -2.2 compared to the Bucks at -3.4. Detroit also has the better overall average point differential and holds a key advantage in this matchup with the 2nd best rebound rate (52.6%) going up against the Bucks 20th ranked rebound rate (49.3%). Going back to the start of last season the Bucks are 9-17 ATS against the Central Division with a negative points differential of minus -0.5ppg. Milwaukee hasn’t been great when playing without rest either at 7-9 ATS their last sixteen. Detroit is 7-1 ATS as a dog this season and undervalued by the Books. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS as a chalk this season. We will grab the Dog and points in this one.

ASA play on Atlanta Hawks +15.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - We successfully bet on the Celtics favored by 10-points in Atlanta a few weeks ago, a 123-93 Boston win. Today we flip and back the Hawks plus the points. Boston had an axe to grind in the first meeting as the Hawks won 2 games against them late last season. Now the C’s are coming off a big road win in Milwaukee, laying a huge number against a team that they recently beat by 30 points. Last season the four meetings between these two teams were all decided by 10-points or less with Atlanta winning two of them. The Hawks have been off since November 9th and should be fresh for tonight’s game. Despite a 4-7 SU record the Hawks have a -5.5-points per game differential and only two of their losses have come by more than this point spread. Boston had an average +/- at home last season of +14.4ppg, which has dipped to +8.8ppg this season. The Hawks had the worst spread record in the Division last season at 4-15 ATS BUT they had a positive point differential of +0.3ppg. The Celtics were 10-6-3 ATS in Division play with a positive differential of +11.3ppg. Boston has a below average FG% at 45% while the Hawks are slightly above average at 46.4%. We like Atlanta to hang within double-digits tonight.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -7 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Houston, we have a problem! The Bucks look and play like a team in complete disarray. There is a power struggle going on in Milwaukee with Doc Rivers and the front office as he wants full control, and they aren’t going to let that happen. In the 2022-23 season the Bucks were 4th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.119-points per possession. Last season they slipped to 19th in DEFF allowing 1.184PPP. This season they rank 21st allowing 1.173PPP. At least they have their offensive to rely on. Not really, the Bucks are 22nd in OEFF at 1.009-points per possession. The Knicks are adjusting to a major roster shift with the addition of Karl Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges and have underachieved with a 3-4 start. NY ranks 4th in OEFF and 20th in DEFF but you know this defense will improve under coach Thibodeau. The Bucks are coming off a game on Thursday against Utah and the Knicks are rested. New York has only played two home games this season so you can bet the home crowd will be extra energized. The Knicks were 33-17 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +5.8PPG. The Bucks were 19-29 SU on the road last season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4 at San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Blazers will be one of the bottom teams in the NBA again this season but today they are in a great spot to get a ‘W’ over the Spurs. San Antonio is coming off a game last night in Houston and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. It’s also their 4th game in six days so fatigue becomes a factor. Portland meanwhile is rested having last played on November 4th in New Orleans. The Blazers won that game 118-100, shooting 55% overall and finishing the game with +8 rebounds. Portland looked good in the game before that, in a 6-point loss in Phoenix. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in EFG% with the Spurs ranking 22nd, the Blazers are 29th. These teams are near identical in Defensive Efficiency on the season but in their last 3 games the Blazers have been significantly better. San Antonio is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of minus -11.4PPG. Portland has the best cover rate in the NBA since the start of last season at 71.4% when playing with 2-3 days rest. Easy call here to grab the points with the Blazers.

ASA top play on Phoenix Suns -5 vs. Miami Heat – 9 PM ET - We love the spot for the Suns at home against a Heat team who continues to underachieve. Miami is 3-3 SU this season, but their wins have come against the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets. They have lost to the three quality teams they’ve faced, the Kings, Knicks and Magic…all at home. Now they go on the road to face a Suns team that is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. The Suns have faced a tough schedule to start the season and currently sit 6-1 SU. Despite facing good competition, the Suns have an average +/- of +3.7PPG overall and are +6PPG at home. Phoenix is 9th in Offensive Efficiency, 10th in Defensive Efficiency. In comparison, the Heat rank 14th in DEFF and 22nd in OEFF, again against a weak schedule. Miami is shooting just 43.3% on the season (25th) and will have a tough time making shots against this Suns team that is 4th in the league in FG% defense. Phoenix will also have an advantage offensively with the 5th best 3PT% going against the Heat’s 11th ranked 3PT% defense. Phoenix won both meetings a year ago and have gotten better this season while the Heat have gotten worse. Lay it with the Suns.

ASA play on Washington Wizards +9.5 vs Miami Heat, 9:40 PM ET - The Wizards have gotten off to a 2-2 start with the two losses coming against the Celtics and Cavaliers who are currently the two best teams in the East. Washington’s two wins have come against the Atlanta Hawks who we grade slightly lower than this Heat team. Miami is also 2-2 SU with wins against the Pistons and Hornets, losses to the Knicks and Magic. The Wiz rate slightly lower than the Heat in Net Rating at -4.6 compared to -3.1. Miami was 8-6-2 ATS as a road chalk last season but their average +/- in those games was just +4.3PPG which clearly isn’t enough to cover this spread. Washington is going to push the tempo in this game and Miami is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 52.1% which is 21st in the NBA. We are not sold Miami is invested yet in this season. Take the Dog here.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -4 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:40 PM ET - We won’t buy into the revenge angle for the Nuggets here who the Wolves eliminated from the playoffs last season. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling situation here, coming off a home loss to the Mavs and having been at home since October 25th. Minnesota was 33-16 SU at home last season with an average plus/minus of +7.3PPG. Denver is playing their 3rd straight road game and have struggled in their first two at Toronto and Brooklyn who are lower tiered teams in the NBA. The Nuggets are currently 21st in defensive net rating and 17th in ONR. Those are extremely low considering their strength of schedule. Minnesota is 13th in ONR, 11th in DNR and have faced a much better schedule which included the Mavs, Kings and Lakers. Denver is not shooting it well with an EFG% of 49.4% which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Wolves are 6th in EFG% at 56.5%. This is a good spot to back the Wolves coming off a home loss. Minnesota was 24-8 SU off a loss last year and won those games by an average of +9.8PPG.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - Don’t get sucked into betting the playoff revenge angle here with the Pacers who the Celtics eliminated last year in the conference finals. Boston looks better than ever and get key contributor Sam Hauser back in the lineup tonight which provides more space with another perimeter shooter for the Celtics. Boston has already beaten two Eastern Conference contenders, the Bucks and Knicks, both by double-digits. Indiana struggled to beat the Pistons, then lost three straight to teams that rate below Boston. Boston was 53-13 SU against the East last season with an average +/- of +9.9PPG. They also won their road games by an average of +6.8PPG. Boston was one of the best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA last year, Indiana was one of the worst. The Celtics were one of the best offensive efficiency teams in the league last year as were the Pacers. This season the C’s are still the best OEFF team and one of the best DEFF. The Pacers are again bad defensively and their OEFF numbers have dropped to 23rd in the league. We will lay it here with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9 at Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are expected to be much improved this season with some added veteran help in Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr and Malik Beasley to pair with a solid young rotation. Unfortunately for the Pistons they started the season with games against the Celtics, Cavs and Pacers to go 0-3. Detroit was very competitive in all three games though, losing by 6 to the Celts, 12 to the Cavs and 6 to Indiana. Miami was blown out in their home opener by the Magic, then won in Charlotte most recently by 8-points. The Heat can’t be trusted as a big home favorite with a 30-43-2 ATS record in that role since the start of the 2022 season. Last year the Heat won at home by just 1.5PPG, the 19th lowest number in the NBA. Detroit has a winning overall ATS record as a road dog the past two seasons at 22-20 versus the number. Detroit is better than their 0-3 SU record and have value at this number.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings +1.5 at L.A. Lakers – 10:40 PM ET - The Lakers have a pair of huge wins to start the season over the Timberwolves and Suns but are in a tough spot here. Los Angeles is playing the second night of a back-to-back and catch a Kings team coming off a home loss a few nights back. Sacramento played well in their opener and lost by 2-points to the Timberwolves. Sacramento has a new addition to their roster in DeMar DeRozen who scored 26-points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his Kings debut. This game means more to the Kings who are often looked at as the other California team behind the Lakers and Clippers. Sacramento has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and 5 straight, 3 in a row on this court. These two teams were nearly identical last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency rating, but we are expecting the Kings to be better this season with the addition of DeRozan. This line opened with the Lakers as a -3.5-point favorite and was quickly bet down to the current number. That would suggest that either LeBron or AD could be sitting for this game after playing last night. We like Sacramento here.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets were a surprise team last season with a 41-41 record and just missed making the play in tournament. Expectations are much higher this season as their win total was set 12 wins higher than last year's number. They were just 8-point favorites at home against the Hornets and were upset after a horrendous shooting performance. The Rockets shot just 37% overall and 30% from Deep. Charlotte meanwhile hit 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc. Memphis is coming off a road win in Utah 126-124 as a -2.5-point favorite. One glaring aspect from that game was the rebound disparity as the Grizzlies were minus -13 boards in that game. Houston was 12th in Rebound Rate last season, Memphis was 25th. The other advantage the Rockets have is their transition defense that is one of the best in the league. Two years ago, with Morant the Grizzlies were very reliant on their transition offense which was 2nd in the NBA. The Rockets can nullify that advantage with their defense and if they shoot an average percentage will win this game by 8+ points. Houston won 3 of four meetings a year ago against this Memphis team with all three wins coming by 20, 13 and 7-points. Great line value here with Houston.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavericks humiliated the Celtics in Game 4 and we expect a bounce back here at home for Boston. The C’s were the 8th best shooting team in the league at 48.4% overall and the 2nd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3%. In the first three games of this series, they shot 45% or better but in Game 4 they hit just 36% overall. Back at home we like Boston to find their range again considering they were the 5th best shooting team in the NBA at home at 49.4%. Dallas had struggled scoring in the first three games, failing to reach 100-points in all three. In Game 4 they exploded for 122 by scoring 30+ in three of the four quarters. We expect a regression in the Mavs shooting here after hitting 51% overall in Game 4 and 41% from Deep. The reserves for Dallas shot well above standards with a combined 11 of 18 from beyond the arc. Boston has an average +/- at home this season of +14.3PPG, best in the league and are 45-6 SU on their home floor. Congratulations to the Boston Celtics for their Championship tonight and we are betting they do it by margin!

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - The Mavs are obviously down 0-2 in the series and in dire need of a win. That doesn’t always mean the team down is going to win, but Dallas is in the Final for a reason and fueled by the home crowd will get a W here. Dallas has had two subpar shooting games in the series, and while some of that can be attributed to the Celtics great defense, we are betting a regression to the norm happens in Game 3. Dallas shot 47.9% on the season overall and 36.8% from beyond the Arc. In the first two games of the season, they are hitting just 44.5% and 24.5% from Deep. In the Playoffs the Mavs have shot 46.7% at home overall and 36.1% from the 3-point line. Boston is perfect on the road in the Playoffs but they also benefitted from playing the Pacers, Cavs and Heat who all had significant injuries. The Celtics had some incredible road results this season including a 33-14 SU away record, but the Mavs are no slouch at home with a 30-19 SU record. Dallas finds their shooting stroke and win Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7 at Boston Celtics, 8 PM ET - We are banking on the Mavericks to come out with a better shooting effort to start this critical Game 2. The Mavs couldn’t buy a basket in the 1st quarter and a half and fell behind big to the Celtics in Game 1, trailing by as many as 29 points. Dallas was much better in the 3rd and 4th quarters where they actually outscored the Celtics 24-23 and 23-21. The Mavs shot just 42% overall and 26% from Deep which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 47.9% overall and 36.9% from the 3-point line. Dallas was 24-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss or 64.9% cover rate. We talked about how good the Celtics were at home in our Game 1 prediction, but let’s not forget that the Mavs were 34-17 ATS as a road team this season with a +1.2PPG point differential. We expect Dallas to make adjustments for Porzingis and play at a much higher level in Game 2. Grab the points.

ASA play on Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 we like the home team Celtics minus the points. Boston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and won their home games by an average of +14.4PPG. The Celts were 21-7 SU versus top 10 teams in the league this season, 31-14 SU against top 16 teams. In comparison, the Mavs were 19-20 SU vs. top 10 teams, 32-29 SU vs, top 16 teams. Granted, the Mavs just rolled through the Western Conference and beat the two best teams in the Conference that had 50+ wins each, but in Game 1 of the Final we expect the host to get it done by margin. Boston is 43-6 SU at home this season and have been favored by less than this spread in just 4 of those games. In three of the four they didn’t have Porzingis and also didn’t have Tatum in one. Dallas is a fantastic road team but is very reliant on two players offensively in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics have multiple scoring options with all 5 starters capable of scoring 30 on any given night. Boston had one of the three best defenses all season long, allowing 1.116-points per possession in the regular season. Dallas was 18th in the league in DEFF, but also got significantly better after the trade deadline. The advantage the Celtics have is they typically have five players on the floor that can defend multiple positions. Dallas does not and we expect the Celtics to exploit Kyrie defensively. In the NBA Finals, the favorites are on a 12-6 ATS run and home chalks of -4.5 or more points are 20-10 ATS the last 30. In Game 1 at home, we like Boston by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 PM ET - Every game in this series has been tightly contested with margins of 3, 1, 9 and 5-points. Dallas has been a great road team all season long and Super Stars Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic won’t be fazed by the big game environment. The Mavs off a loss were one of the best spread record teams in the league this season with a 23-13 ATS record, and they won those games outright by an average of +2.7PPG. In the playoffs, prior to tonight’s situation, they lost 4 games and, in each instance, came back to win the following game. In fact, the Mavs won all four of those games on the road! The Wolves haven’t shot it especially well in this series at 46.5%, and it took a 53% night in Game 4, compared to the Mavs 42% to gain a 5-point win. Karl Anthony Towns has been in a shooting slump this series but made 4 of 5 in Game 4. We don’t expect him to have another game like that, as the previous 3-games he was 3 of 22 from beyond the Arc. At the end of the day, we trust Luka/Kyrie much more than any combination of Wolves players and expect another tight game that goes down to the wire. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota T’Wolves +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 8 PM ET - Minnesota had a fantastic road record this season at 31-16 SU with the second-best average margin of victory at +5.1PPG. The Wolves have been a much better team on the road than at home in the postseason with a 5-1 SU record and a +8.1PPG differential. Dallas is 4-2 SU at home in the playoffs and were 29-18 SU during the regular season with an average +/- of plus 3.6PPG. We are betting the Wolves don’t have a shooting performance like they did in the first two games of this series at 42% considering they shot 48.2% on the season which was 10th best in the NBA. The Wolves were the 3rd best 3PT shooting team at 38.3% and Dallas was 18th in the NBA in defending the Arc. The Mavs were also 20th in the NBA in overall team FG% defense so expect positive regression from Minnesota in Game 3. There is positive support for teams down 0-2 in the Conference Finals and we expect Minny to rebound here with a win.

ASA play on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, Game 2, 8:30 PM ET - We like the Wolves to bounce back here after their Game 1 loss to the Mavs. The T’Wolves are 23-6 SU this season when coming off a loss, 17-12 ATS with a double-digit average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Minnesota had the 4th best average point differential at home this season at +8.1PPG. The Wolves have lost back-to-back home games just 3 times this entire season so we’re betting it doesn’t happen here. In Game 1 the Wolves shot 43% overall and 37% from Deep. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 48.3% and 38.3%. Dallas on the other hand shot well at 49% overall but struggled from beyond the Arc at 24%. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league this season and held opponents to 45.1% shooting which was 1st. in the NBA. The Mavs also enjoy a +8 rebound margin in Game 1 which is unlikely to happen tonight considering the Wolves had the 7th best rebound percentage in the league versus Dallas who was 23rd. Dallas gained home court advantage with their Game 1 win so a letdown here would not surprise us. Back the Timberwolves at home.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 over Indiana Pacers, Tuesday 8 PM ET - In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals we expect a blowout win by the home team Celtics. Boston is 41-6 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +14.6PPG. Going back another full season the Celtics stand 78-21 SU at home +11.5PPG. Boston opened their series up against the Heat in the first round with a 20-point win. In the first game of round 2 versus the Cavs the C’s won by 25. The Celtics big advantage in this match up in their defense. Indiana can’t simply outscore their opponent in this round as the Celtics were better than the Pacers in offensive efficiency this season. Defensively it’s not close as Boston had the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating compared to Indiana who ranked 24th. Indiana is a great story in the playoffs but let’s face it, they beat a Bucks team without Giannis and Lillard missed 2 games and wasn’t 100%. The Pacers then faced a Knicks team without 3 regular season starters and then Hart and Brunson both got hurt. Indiana was 23-26 SU on the road this season and have a short turnaround here after that brutally tough 7-game series with the Knicks. When playing with a rest advantage the Celtics are 26-3 SU this season, 16-12-1 ATS with those wins coming by +14.8PPG. Indiana was 7-10 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage this season. Boston in a Game 1 runaway win!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -3.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - We’ve clearly watched every second of every game in the playoffs (and regular season for that matter of fact) and we were surprised at the lack of urgency displayed by the Thunder at home in Game 5. Shai Gilgeous Alexander can only do so much, and we are finding out the young supporting cast of OKC may not be up for the task. The Mavs Luka Doncic looked infinitely better in the last game after struggling through several games with nagging injuries. Doncic posted a triple-double with 31-points, 11-assists and 10-rebounds in the Mavericks G5 win. The Thunder won the previous meeting on this court but Doncic and Irving both played well below standards with a combined 27-points, 19-assists and 13-rebounds. Dallas has been active on the boards in this series (Gafford + Lively) with a 52% rebound percentage compared to the Thunders 47.3%. They also have the better overall EFG% of the two teams in this round of 52.6% versus 47.3%. OKC is not getting enough scoring out of role players Jalen Williams (43% shooting/17PPG in series) and Luguentz Dort (34.5% FG/10PPG). All of the previously mentioned stats on Willaims and Dort are below their season averages. With Luka looking more healthy and the Mavs at home where they are 28-18 SU this season with an average MOV of +3.7PPG, we like Dallas to win and move on.

ASA top play on NY Knicks +6.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - We expect this game to go down to the wire and will gladly take the points with the Knicks here. The Knicks (+6) were recently blown out on this court 89-121 in Game 4 so why isn’t the line adjusted slightly higher for this game. New York is the tougher team, they have played in more close games and have a Star in Jalen Brunson who can carry a team. The Pacers don’t have a player like Brunson as Haliburton is still coming into his own. Indiana is 17-16-1 ATS as a home favorite this season or 51.5%. New York is 14-14-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential in those games of minus -2.7PPG. Two key factors in efficiency ratings are rebounding and free throws and the Knicks have dominated those two categories. The Knicks are attempting 24 free throws per game in this series compared to just 16.8 by Indiana. New York is also plus nearly +7 more rebounds per game with nearly 4 of those per game coming offensively. I’m betting the moment is too big for the young Pacers and New York covers this spread.

Oklahoma City Thunder -2 1st HALF vs Dallas Mavericks OR you can play **the game at OKC -4** for those of you who do not have access to 1st HALF lines. REGULAR SEASON 1ST HALF RESULTS... During the regular season the Thunder were 49-32 SU in the 1st half of games with an average +/- of +3.7PPG. At home the Thunder were 27-14 SU. Dallas during the regular season was 37-44 SU with an average +/- of +1.0PPG. On the road they were 18-21 SU. In the Playoffs the Thunder are 5-2 SU in the 1st half of games, the Mavs are 5-4 SU. WHEN IF COMES TO NET RATINGS… During the regular season the Thunder had the 3rd best Net rating differential in the 1st half of games at a positive +7.61. Dallas had the 13th best 1st half Net rating at +2.6. In the playoffs the Thunder have the 5th best overall Net differential rating, the Mavs are 9th. SERIES THUS FAR... The Thunder have been up at halftime in 3 of the four games in this series. **The Mavs look like they are wearing down and we like a big first half effort from OKC in front of their home crowd.**For those unable to play the 1st HALF line:

ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -4 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - We will side with the home team Thunder and Shai Gilgeous Alexander over the Mavs and the injured Luka Doncic. The Thunder won the opener of this series at home 117-95. Then the young Thunder found out what playoff basketball is all about and dropped Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas. Then OKC found their confidence and won the critical Game 4 on the Mavs home court. This OKC team has one of the best home courts in the NBA and stands 36-9 SU in this venue. The +12.8PPG average point differential at home is the 2nd largest number in the league. OKC has better overall offensive and defensive Net ratings in the postseason and are 3-1 SU on their home court. SGA is healthy and Luka clearly is not. Irving was a no-show in the last game with 9-points. We like the Thunder to win this home game by 8+ points.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -6.5 vs NY Knicks, Friday 7 PM ET - The Pacers have outplayed the Knicks for large stretches of both games in this series but some questionable calls by officials, and late game big shots by the Knicks have them down 0-2. Indiana is going to feed off their home crowd and get a big win in Game 3 as the Knicks short rotation starts to wear down. Coach Thibadeau has been criticized in the past for not using his bench players and that could be a key factor as this series goes on. Indiana plays at a frenetic pace and rotate 9 players which will eventually take a toll on the 7-man rotation that the Knicks employ. Case in point, in Game 2 the Pacers had 9 players log over 14 minutes each with no starter playing more than 37 minutes. The Knicks had 4 of five starters play over 32 minutes and Anunoby left the game early with an injury and Brunson sat for extended time also with an apparent injury. If Anunoby and Brunson are not 100% this may be a ‘throw away’ game for the Knicks. Indiana had the best bench Offensive Net Rating in the regular season, the Knicks bench ranked 24th. Indiana was 29-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best average point differential of +7.2PPG. New York was a very good road team this season at 25-19 SU and an average plus/minus of +3.0PPG. Surprisingly, the Pacers had a better SU record against the NBA’s top 16 teams at 25-22 compared to the Knicks record of 21-27. Indiana was the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 25-12-2 ATS record and a 67.6% cover rate. Indiana showed some Moxy in the first round series against the Bucks and will be up for this challenge at home in this Game 3. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the T’Wolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls. Not only that, but this is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days. Chicago is not a deep team to begin with and has the 18th worst Net Rating for their bench. The Bulls bench has the 24th rated EFG% in the NBA at 52.1%. With the added rest the Clippers starters should see extended minutes in this one and have a healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for this contest. The Clippers starters have the 6th best Net Rating differential in the NBA at +4.6. Los Angeles has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and the 13th best DEFF. In comparison the Bulls rate 18th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in OEFF. The Clippers are 12-10 ATS as a road chalk this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. The Bulls are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog but they own a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Clippers start their road trip with a double digit win here.

ASA BET ON Chicago Bulls +4 @ Indiana Pacers – 7PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bulls and fade the Pacers who played last night in Oklahoma City and won as an underdog. The Bulls are 18-15 ATS on the road this season and have won 5 of their last seven road games outright. We like the fact that the Bulls are coming off a blowout home loss in their most recent game on Monday to the Mavericks which should have them focused here. Indiana played last night making this the second of a back-to-back and also their 3rd game in four nights. When playing without rest this season the Pacers have the worst spread record in the NBA at 2-9 ATS with an average loss margin of -8.6PPG. Indiana is also 9-11-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Both teams have negative point differential since the All-Star break with the Pacers at minus -1.9PPG, the Bulls are minus -3.4PPG but clearly both of those differentials would net a cover in this one. Indiana has some depth concerns with Mathurin out for the season and the road team has covered the spread in both meetings this season. Grab the points.

ASA BET ON ORLANDO MAGIC -7 vs Brooklyn Nets – 7 PM ET - We are on the Magic in this one. Orlando has the best spread record at home as a favorite this season at 13-3 with an average Margin of Victory in those games of +13.4PPG. Overall at home the Magic are 20-9 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Nets on the other hand are 10-20 SU away from home, 11-19 ATS which is the 2nd worst road spread record in the league. When playing on the road, the Nets lose by an average of -6.3PPG. The Magic look to bounce back after 2 straight losses, with the most recent being at home to Indiana. Brooklyn meanwhile is coming off a huge upset road win over the Cavs and should revert back to their losing ways tonight. The home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

ASA TOP PLAY ON #518 ORLANDO MAGIC -1.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 6:10 PM ET - The Magic are coming off a humbling game on Friday night in New York as they were beaten handily 74-98. That loss snapped a 5 game winning streak and we expect them to bounce back here. Orlando has quietly been playing fantastic basketball with a 13-4 SU record in their last seventeen games. The Magic have been a money printing machine at home as a favorite with a 13-3 ATS record while covering 7 in a row. Not only have the Magic been covering at home as a Chalk but they’ve done it in impressive fashion with an average +/- of +13.4PPG in those games. Indiana comes into this game off a home loss to the Timberwolves and are 2-4 SU their last six games overall. The Pacers have been average on the road this season with a 15-14-1 ATS record. In their last twelve road games they have just 5-covers. The difference between these two teams is obvious as the Magic rely on the 3rd best defense in the league, while the Pacers are anchored by the 2nd most efficient offense. In the two regular season meetings thus far the Magic and their defense have won twice, both in Indiana, by 12 and 7-points. We will back the better defense again today.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Antonio Spurs +10.5 at Sacramento Kings 10 PM ET - Even with big man Wembanyama sidelined for this one, we like the Spurs here and the double digit points who are in a very favorable scheduling situation. The Kings are coming off a huge showdown with the Lakers in L.A. on Wednesday night and are also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have lost two straight at home to the Bulls and Heat. The last time the Kings won at home was against this Spurs team by 5-points 127-122. San Antonio has been playing under the radar since the All-Star break with a 2-5 SU record, but they have covered 5 of seven. The visitor in this series has covered 5-straight games. Since the ASG these two teams have very similar Net Ratings with the Kings ranking 15th at -2.1, the Spurs are 23rd at -2.3. The big reason the Spurs have played well recently has been the improvement of their overall defense. In their last five games the Spurs are allowing 1.140-points per possession, which is 13th in the league. The Kings defense ranks 21st in DEFF over that same 5-game span. There was a time when the Kings home court was incredible but this season they are closer to average with a 16-11 SU record and an average +/- of +0.6PPG. Grab the points with San Antonio.

ASA TOP PLAY ON Denver Nuggets +1.5 at home vs. Boston Celtics, 10 PM ET - This could very well be a Finals preview and should be a great game. We will side with the home team Nuggets though as their home numbers are just too much to overlook. Both teams come into this game off a recent loss. The Celtics blew a big lead to the Cavs on Tuesday and lost 104-105. The Nuggets trailed the Suns at home from most of the game before outscoring them 21-12 in the 4th to send the game to OT where they eventually lost. Since the start of last season, the Nuggets are 68-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. They have only been home underdogs 4 times and they won all four by an average of +10.5PPG. Boston is really good as a road team with a 50-29 SU away record their last 79 away. If you compare every key statistic between these two teams you find they are very close offensively and defensively, but we like the home court advantage of Denver. The World Champs gets this win on Thursday.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - This line is telling us Giannis will not be in the lineup for the Bucks tonight which means we will back the Warriors at home minus the points. The Bucks have clearly seen a resurgence since the All-Star break with 6 straight wins and a defense that ranks best in the NBA over that time period. As a Bucks fan I temper my enthusiasm though as two of those wins came against Charlotte, one versus a struggling Bulls team and one against Philly who had injury issues. The Warriors are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Boston on Sunday in a National TV showing. I like Golden State to bounce back with a concentrated effort at home. The home team in this series has dominated with 6-straight wins including the Bucks getting a W on Jan 13th at home 129-118. You might be a bit surprised to know that the Bucks are 3-5 ATS as an underdog with a negative average differential in those games of -10.5PPG. Golden State has dominated Eastern Conference teams this season with a 16-7 SU record and a +/- of +3.3PPG. Given the circumstances we like the Warriors minus the short number.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 8:30 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Indiana which saw the Pacers win at home 133-111 as a +2-point dog. Based on that spread this line should have the Mavericks as a much bigger favorite. The big difference in that Pacer win was a fantastic shooting night at 56% overall and a +8-rebound differential. The Pacers rely heavily on their offense and outscoring opponents but since the All-Star break they have seen a significant drop in their Offensive Net Rating and overall shooting percentages. For the season the Pacers rank 1st in the league in team FG% at 50%, but in their last five games that number has dipped to 47.4% which would rank them 13th. Also, in their last five games their 3PT% had dropped to 32% which is the 25th lowest percentage in the NBA over this recent 5-game period. We like Dallas to get a measure of revenge here from the recent L in Indianapolis. Dallas is also coming off a loss at home to Philadelphia on Sunday in a national TV game. Prior to Sunday’s home loss, the Mavs had won 4-straight at home with two of those wins coming against Phoenix and OKC. The Mavericks are 16-10 ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- in those games of +3.8PPG. When laying points this season the Mavs have a 21-14 ATS record with a plus/minus of +5.8PPG. Indiana is 9-9-1 ATS as a road dog with a net differential per game of minus -9.6PPG. Dallas will find their shot tonight against a Pacers defense that is last in the league in opponents FG% allowed at 50.5%. Lay the short number with Dallas.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2 at Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a much better situation with a bet on the Sixers here laying a short number against the Nets. Philadelphia looked good in their win over the Mavericks on Sunday and were relatively healthy without Embiid who is out for the foreseeable future. The Sixers didn’t shoot overly well against the Mavs but still put up 120 points on 45% shooting overall and just 30% from Deep. This Philly team is 2-3 SU their last five games but the two losses came to the Celtics and Bucks who are playing extremely well at the moment. Now they step down in class against a 24-36 Brooklyn team that also has a losing home record. The Nets are coming off a game against the Grizzlies on Monday making this the second night of a back-to-back. Brooklyn is 2-7 SU this when playing without rest and have an average negative differential in those games of -15PPG. This will also be the Nets 3rd game in four days. The 76ers had beaten the Nets 9 straight times before their most recent game which was a blowout loss on their home court. Paybacks are a bitch and that’s exactly what happens here tonight.