#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins, after yesterday's 10-5 beatdown, have now lost 16 of 22 games!  The Tigers have won 4 of 6 games and also are 29-14 at home this season and each of their last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs so we are very comfortable with the run line here.  Part of the reason for that comfort level here is certainly a big pitching edge as well.  The Twins Chris Paddack has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits in 14 innings spanning his last 3 starts.  A brutally tough stretch for him.  As for the Tigers Tarik Skubal, he is having another dominating season and yet we catch him off a rare subpar outing.  It was not brutal but was not Skubal-like numbers and he is sure to respond here at home.  Prior to allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start, Skubal allowed a TOTAL of only 3 earned runs over his 5 preceding starts!  He has been in top form while Paddack, on the other hand, has resumed his early season struggles.  The point is that this sets up as a starting pitching mismatch and also note that the Tigers bullpen ERA is 13th in the majors while the Twins bullpen ERA ranks 23rd in the majors.  The Twins are 5-10 against left-handed starters and they are 8 games under .500 on the road this season.  Detroit is 30-14 against teams that currently have a losing record this season.  Paddack has a 3-6 record this season and Skubal is 9-2 on the season with a 2.29 ERA.   All signs point to another strong home win here.  Similar to yesterday's 10-5 win, another blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

#958 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - You might think Antonio Senzatela has bad numbers only because he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. However, he actually is 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA on the road so it is not as if things have been great for him away from Coors Field. The Brewers Quinn Priester has a 3.69 ERA at home this season plus he is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in the month of June! The Rockies are 10-32 on the road and 8-49 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rockies have lost 4 straight and the Brewers have won 3 straight and also are 23-12 when facing teams that are currently below .500 on the season. The Rockies last 17 losses featured 15 defeats by 2 or more runs! The Brewers have scored 66 runs in their last 7 wins so they are not just beating teams recently, they are blowing them out. Similar to yesterday's 10-6 win, another blowout here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#912 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants bounce back off yesterday's loss here.  San Francisco is starting Logan Webb here and he is 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his 8 home starts this season.  Miami is starting Edward Cabrera here and he has a 1.52 WHIP on the road.  Cabrera has a decently low road ERA but it is giving us value here because the WHIP shows that he has been in a lot of jams in his road starts.  The Giants are 25-15 at home this season and that is after yesterday's loss.  Miami, after yesterday's win, has won B2B games but the Marlins are still only 16-31 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Miami only has 2 win streaks of more than 2 games this season!  Both ended at 3 games.  7 of the 9 times that Miami has entered a game on a win streak of at least 2 games they have lost that game.  The Giants were on an 11-6 run before yesterday's loss.  5 of the last 6 Miami losses have been by a margin of at least 2 runs and we forecast the same tonight.  SF bullpen ERA ranks #1 in the majors while Miami's ranks 23rd out of 30 teams!  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#915 ASA PLAY ON 3* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are in a great spot here.  They have lost B2B games to the Red Sox by 1 run apiece and have not lost 3 straight games in over a month.  They have a decided pitching edge here too.  Max Fried is having a phenomenal season and this includes going 5-0 with an ERA under the 1.00 mark in his day game starts this season!  Fried has been a beast on the mound this season. The Red Sox are expected to start Brayan Bello here and he has an opponents batting average of .285 in home games and .312 in day games.  He has a 1.90 WHIP in his 5 day game starts this season as issuing too many walks has also been a problem for him.  The Yankees are 6-2 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games.  Boston is on a 4-0 game winning streak and, dating back to last July, the Red Sox are 1-4 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games.  Pitching mismatch and a Yankees team fully focused on avoiding the sweep.  The road team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#958 ASA PLAY ON 2* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-160) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 6-29 on the road and 7-43 against teams with a winning record this season.  Braves have struggled at times this season but the Rockies have taken struggling to a whole other level this season!  We get some value here because Spencer Strider is a much better pitcher than his 0-5 record this season shows.  He also is trending the right way as he has allowed only 10 hits over nearly 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Based on how he has looked on the mound he is "almost there" and now facing a struggling Colorado team is likely to lead to Strider's first win of the season in a huge way.  The Braves last 10 wins in fact were all by a double digit margin and the average margin of victory was 4.6 runs!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie who faced the Braves (and had some success) earlier this season.  The key here is this is the first time the rookie has had to face the same team twice!  Atlanta gets to him in the rematch!  He has a 6.85 ERA on the season and Dollander was just rocked by the Mets in most recent start.  The home team will pull away in this one as it goes along. We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#959 ASA PLAY ON 3* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-145/-150) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 4.35 or 4.5 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been. We will ride with San Francisco today in this one. The Giants have the #1 bullpen ERA (2.32) on the season. The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league. San Francisco also has a big starting pitching edge here. The Giants Kyle Harrison has a 1.50 ERA in his 4 road appearances (2 starts) this season and has looked sharp away from home.  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-4 this season with an 8.50 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level. The Giants are 17-8 against teams that currently have a losing record on the season! The Rockies are 6-25 on the road this season and 5-42 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season. Also, this is a battle of southpaws and though the Giants have struggled versus lefties, the numbers are even more insane for the Rockies as they are 1-17 this season against left-handed starters!  Colorado is on a long-term stretch in which 29 of 36 losses have come by a margin of 2+ runs. Now off a series sweep (again) at the hands of the Mets, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Giants hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin.   The Giants are on a 5-game winning streak but all 1-run wins but hitting in Colorado is a much different story and they should explode for big runs in this one while the Rockies misery of a season continues.  We are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!  

#904 ASA PLAY ON 2* New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-175/-180) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - Yes we are willing to lay 3.5 or 3.6 units to win 2 units when you consider just how horrible the Rockies season has been.  We will ride with New York again today in this one.  The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Clay Holmes was always a bullpen guy but this season he has been fantastic after moving into a starters role and in his 11 starts he has a 2.98 ERA!  The Rockies Carson Palmquist is 0-3 this season with an 8.78 ERA and the 24-year old rookie is still adjusting to pitching at the big league level.  The Mets, off yesterday's 8-2 win, are now 23-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-27 on the road this season and 5-35 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs.  Now off B2B losses by multi-run margins in this series, we look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a big margin again similar to yesterday's 8-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#956 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-170) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets Koda Senga is having a fantastic season and his home ERA is a minuscule 0.70 on the year.  In his career he is 18-10 overall with a 2.61 ERA.  This season he has been fantastic in his 10 starts with a 1.46 ERA and does a great job of scattering hits and limiting damage.  The Rockies Antonio Senzatela is 1-9 this season with a 6.50 ERA and he is 8-28 the last 4 seasons combined.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hammered (.410 BAA!) on the road this season.  The Mets, off yesterday's 4-2 win, are now 22-7 at home this season!  The Rockies are 3-26 on the road this season and 5-37 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado entered this series off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up and should win by a greater margin than yesterday's surprising 4-2 final. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#906 ASA PLAY ON New York Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have the #2 bullpen ERA on the season.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom third of the league.  New York also has a big starting pitching edge here.  The Mets David Peterson is 8-4 in all home starts since the start of the 2023 season and his home ERA was 2.79 that year.  In 2024, he went 10-3 overall with a 2.90 ERA.  This season he has been solid in his 10 starts with a 2.79 ERA on the season.  The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 0-7 this season and 11-29 the last 3 seasons combined and his ERA has been north of 5.00 both in 2023 and 2024 as well as 2025 thus far.  It is not just a Coors Field thing either as he has been getting hit quite hard (.271 BAA) on the road as well this season.  The Mets are off a loss but are 21-7 at home this season and are 3-1 this season when at home and coming off a loss.  The Rockies are 3-25 on the road this season and 5-33 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the season.  Colorado is off B2B losses by 1 run apiece but this followed a stretch in which 23 of 28 losses by a margin of 2+ runs. We look for another blowout loss here for the Rockies as the Mets hold all the edges again in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks won yesterday's game 5-0.  Things won't get any easier today for the struggling Pirates!   Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Diamondbacks and he is in phenomenal current form.  Burnes has allowed just 7 earned runs in total over his last 6 starts and in those 37 and 1/3 innings he gave up only 24 hits.  He has struck out 23  over 18 and 1/3 innings in his last 3 home starts!  As for the Pirates starter here it will be Mike Burrows making the first road start of his MLB career.  He draws a tough assignment as Chase Field is a hitter-friendly park and the Diamondbacks are known for hitting well here.  Burrows made one road appearance out of the bullpen last season and struggled in the Bronx against the Yankees.  Now he is coming off his first ever MLB start.  That was against the Brewers at home and he struggled with 2 homers allowed and the damage could have been worse.  He gave up a number of hard-hit line drive outs and also got a double play to help him.  The point is that he wasn't fooling too many hitters and the Diamondbacks are likely to pound Burrows here while Burnes continues his dominating run.  Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has a .205 batting average on the road and Pittsburgh is scoring only 2.5 runs per game on the road this season!  Conversely, Burrows has to deal with a Diamondbacks team that has a .469 slugging percentage in home games this season!  That is 3rd in the majors as only the Yankees and Dodgers rank higher and that is pretty good company to keep!  With yesterday's loss Pittsburgh dropped to 1-6 this season against NL West teams and they are 6-20 in road games this season.  Also, against teams with a record of .500 or better currently this season, the Pirates are 7-24 on the year!  The Diamondbacks have won 3 of the last 4 at home and their last 11 home wins have come by a combined score of 57 to 15 with the last 4 of those dominating wins coming by a combined score of 17 to 0.  That is another reason we have no hesitation in laying the -1.5 runs with this bet.  Pittsburgh's tough season continues here.  Lay the run line in this one!

#920 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - The Rockies are off a rare win but fired their manager after all the losing had finally taken its toll when the losing streak was culminated with a 21-0 loss.  Even though the Rockies finally got back into the win column Sunday, this team is still a mess!  Changing the manager does not exactly revamp the roster and therein lies the problem with Colorado.  The Rockies, dating back to last season, are 1-8 the last 9 times when off a loss.  B2B wins have indeed been rare for the Rockies and that has, in fact, happened only once this season.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume here.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and yesterday's win was at home.  Now the Rockies are back on the road where they have lost 16 of 17 games!  The Rangers have certainly been struggling some too but now they enter this game off B2B road wins at Detroit and they are now happy to be back home where they have won 12 of 19 games since losing their home opener.  Texas also has the bullpen edge here.  As for the starting pitching, this is a big edge here for Texas!  The Rangers Tyler Mahle is off to a phenomenal start this season and has been incredibly dominant at home.  In his home outings, Mahle is 2-1 with an 0.70 ERA in his 5 starts!  He has been lights out at home this season!  The Rockies Chase Dollander is a rookie and he is struggling both home and away.  He is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his road starts this season.  82% of Rockies losses this season by 2 or more runs.  70% of Rangers wins this season by 2 or more runs. Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#901 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-165) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET -  We are going with the Dodgers again today on Tuesday after they won 7 to 4 yesterday for us here in this spot.  As we mentioned here yesterday, the Dodgers entered this series off a loss but this was on the heels of a 7-game winning streak in which LA averaged scoring 9 runs per game!  This team has such a potent lineup.  Miami, on the other hand, has now lost 8 of 9 games and scored an average of 3.5 runs per game in those 8 losses.  The Dodgers Tony Gonsolin just faced the Marlins and it was his first start of this season and he struck out 9 in 6 innings in a very solid 6-inning effort.  We expect another one today while Miami counters with the struggling Cal Quantrill as he has been charged with 18 earned runs on 26 hits over 17 and 2/3 innings in his last 4 starts. The way this LA lineup is going - including pounding Quantrill when these teams matched up last week - this one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#910 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-156) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on San Francisco on Friday, the Rockies (stop the presses!) were off B2B wins and it was the first time Colorado had won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  As we stated Friday (winner on SF), the odds certainly favored that Colorado's losing ways would quickly resume.  Sure enough, San Francisco beat them 4-0 Friday and 6-3 Saturday.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to Thursday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants entered Friday's game on a 3-game losing streak which was their longest losing streak since mid-September.  San Francisco had been on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favored that they would get back to winning ways and they have done just that with the wins both Friday and Saturday.  Now Sunday looks like another great spot for the Giants to roll!  German Marquez starts for the Rockies and opponents are crushing him to the tune of a .369 batting average this season!  He is 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA this season!  The Giants counter with Logan Webb here and he is 3-2 this season and has a 2.83 ERA plus he has not allowed any earned runs in his 13 innings over 2 home starts this season.  Last season Webb went 7-5 at home with a 2.83 ERA and the year before he had a 2.26 ERA at home.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here even though it is still a bit on the pricier side.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#914 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Rockies (stop the presses!) are off B2B wins!  This is the first time Colorado has won B2B games since mid-September.  In fact, since then the Rockies were on a 7-33 run prior to these B2B victories.  In other words, the odds certainly favor that Colorado's losing ways quickly resume.  The Rockies are annually a horrible team on the road and, prior to yesterday's win, the Rockies had lost 13 straight road games!  The Giants are on a 3-game losing streak which, ironically, is also their first such streak since mid-September last season.  Since then, San Francisco was on a 27-14 run prior to this 3-game losing streak.  The odds certainly favor that they get back to winning ways here at home Friday.  Senzatela starts for the Rockies and opponents are hitting an unheard of .385 against him this season!  He has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts.  The Giants counter with Robbie Ray here and he is 3-0 this season and has a 3.73 ERA.  Also, he is holding opponents to a .223 batting average this season and, in his 7 starts last season with Giants, he held opponents to a .189 batting average.  San Francisco also has the bullpen edge here.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

#923 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers as the last time Cannon "started" and went 7 and 2/3 innings but it was after an "opener" pitched the first inning.  Great set up here. Astros are off a loss and have gone 9-1 the last 10 times they have entered a game off a loss.  The White Sox are off a rare win.  Chicago is only 8-23 this season and a big reason for that is they can not sustain any winning form.  The White Sox are 1-6 this season when entering a game off a win.  Framber Valdez starts for Houston and has inflated numbers the last 4 starts simply because of one bad outing.  In the other 3 starts Valdez has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 20 innings for a 1.80 ERA.  He is capable of dominating the light-hitting White Sox.  Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon here and he has had one scoreless outing the last 5 outings but he allowed 16 earned runs in 22.2 innings in the other 4 recent outings.  White Sox are 5-17 this season against teams that currently have a winning record while the Astros are 8-4 this season against teams that currently have a losing record.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one has the makings of a road rout!  Lay the run line in this one!  

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are expected to have Dustin May on the mound here while the Marlins are going with Edward Cabrera.  Note that LA's May has been practically unhittable at home with a 0.82 ERA and a .108 batting average against with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his two home starts.  The Marlins Cabrera is off to a rough start this season as big hits and some command issues with his pitches have done him in.  Also, all those outings were at home and now he is on the road where he went 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA last season and also 0-7 with a 5.96 ERA the season before that as he has not traveled well!  The Marlins are on a 4-8 slide overall and also have lost 6 of last 9 road games.  Before yesterday's 1-run loss, Miami's last 6 road losses included 5 by a multi-run margin.  In fact those 5 losses were by an average margin of 7 runs!  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 of last 6 road games and are a solid 12-3 at home on the season!  Los Angeles has the better bullpen numbers and also ranks 4th in the majors for slugging percentage while Miami ranks in the middle of the pack.  The Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of last 5 games while Marlins averaged 3.5 runs per game last 4 games before the 7-6 loss yesterday.  Given numbers like the ones we pointed out above you can see why we are very comfortable laying the 1.5 runs on the run line here.  This one looks like a home blowout!  Lay the run line in this one!

#904 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The White Sox have now lost 9 of 10 games and 8 of those 9 losses were via a multi-run margin of defeat.  It will be tough for the White Sox to keep up here as they have scored an average of only 2 runs per game in their last 9 losses.  Chris Paddack had a tough start to this season but has been much stronger in his last two starts with only one earned run allowed in each start.  Paddack allowed only 5 hits while striking out 11 over 10 innings in those two starts.  Last season at home Paddack was 4-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 9 starts.  Chicago counters with Shane Smith here.  Smith is a rookie who was off to a good beginning to this season over his first 3 starts but the White Sox right-hander hit 3 batters in most recent start and allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings.  Issues with command for Smith and it could all unravel for him here on the road and facing a Twins team that has won 4 straight home games.  Also, 8 of 9 Twins victories this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for the White Sox as the Twins hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one early Thursday.

#908 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 1-8 on the road this season including 7 straight road losses all by 2 or more runs!  Colorado has been outscored by a combined 36 to 7 in those 7 road defeats!  The Rockies are known for being bad on the road year in and year out and this season has started no differently.  Senzatela starts for Colorado here and he has miraculously allowed 0 earned runs on 19 hits in less than 10 innings over his 2 road starts this season!  The Dodgers are likely to pound the very hittable Senzatela and this time there is a big breakthrough in terms of runs scored.  Los Angeles is in the perfect bounce back spot after B2B losses to the Cubs to end that series including a very ugly defeat Saturday.  The Dodgers will be dialed in and focused here as they look to stop the bleeding.  Dustin May gets the start here and he has a .201 BAA in his career and, unlike Senzatela, he has been tough to hit this season.  Lay it with the home team here as we look for another blowout road loss here for Colorado as the Dodgers hold all the edges in this match-up. We are laying the 1.5 runs with the home team on the run line in this one!

#960 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - As mentioned here yesterday in our write-up on Atlanta, a 10-0 winner to open this series, the Braves were 0-7 to start the season but all their games were on the road and they faced the Padres and Dodgers!  Those are two very tough teams and, in fact, prior to yesterday's action they were a combined 15-0 so far this season!  The Braves in this series are now finally facing a weaker team and plus this is Atlanta's first home series of the season.  Seeing Atlanta, after starting this season with an 0-7 record, again favored by more than a -200 price might surprise some but we fully expected this.  Of course the Braves are much better than their record shows plus they have a solid pitching edge again here.  Cal Quantrill gets the start for the Marlins and he is not the same pitcher he was in his first few years with Cleveland.  In his final season in Cleveland in 2023, he had a 5.24 ERA and then he followed that with a 4.98 ERA with Colorado last season.  Now with his 3rd team in 3 years, Quantrill began his season with a very ugly outing plus now is facing a Braves team that got its swagger back with last night's huge win at home.  AJ Smith-Shawver starts for the Braves here and, though he has limited MLB experience, he has been tough to hit with a .205 opponents batting average in his 8 appearances (7 starts) at the MLB level.  In his 57 career minor league starts he also has allowed only a .200 batting average as well so this is a guy with a solid repertoire of pitches.  As we mentioned yesterday, if you look at stats so far this season you will see that Miami has the better numbers but, entering this season the Marlins were projected to lose about 100 games this season while the Braves had a season win total that projected them to only lose about 59 games!  The Braves, just like yesterday, take advantage of home field and a starting pitching edge and they get another much needed win.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another home blowout here!

#954 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Off last night's 6-1 win, we come right back with the same pick here. The Braves are now 0-5 on the season while the Dodgers are already 6-0 on the season. We again will lay the 1.5 runs on the run line which is available for plus money as of very early Tuesday morning.  Great value here with the Dodgers having scored an average of 5 runs per game (not including the extra innings runs in an 8-5 win) and the Braves averaging only 1.7 runs per game and coming into this one having scored a total of just 1 run in the last 3 games. The Dodgers are the team that is projected to be the most dominant in the majors this season and we look for LA to roll again!  The Dodgers have remained in Southern California all this time since returning from the opening series in Japan that took place over a week and a half ago as they also played some extended spring training games against the Angels before their 3-game sweep of the Tigers here.  They are rolling and it continues!  Atlanta's Sale is a solid veteran pitcher but is unlikely to work deep into this game.  Dustin May is back for the Dodgers and had a solid spring and looks poised to return to top form.  He has held hitters to a .206 batting average in his career.  While LA does not have the big starting pitching edge they had yesterday, their bullpen ERA is 2.37 this season while the Braves pen has a 6.19 ERA.  Couple that with the Dodgers swinging the bats much better than the Braves too so far this season and we have no hesitation in again laying the 1.5 with the run line as we project another blowout here!

#922 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 3:45 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.61 ERA this season and a 3.28 ERA in his career.  One also sees Logan Webb with similar numbers as he has a 3.17 ERA this season and a 3.36 ERA in his career!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Giants, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers for Crochet.  The White Sox southpaw is dealing with a major stretch of struggles with only his last start, though short, an exception! Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 7 starts and has averaged 3.1 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet is off a scoreless 4-inning start but this followed him having given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  As for Webb, he is in phenomenal current form as he has allowed only 2 earned runs in 29.1 innings over his last 4 starts.  Also, on the season he is 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his home starts!  Opponents are hitting only .223 against him in San Francisco.  Now, about those team trends, the Giants have won 11 of 16 home games and are still very much alive in the Wild Card race.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 3 wins in 35 games and also are 12-53 on the road this season.  San Francisco wins this season have featured 72% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 72 of 97 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox here. Lay the run line in this one!

#929 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Los Angeles Angels, Saturday at 9:38 PM ET - The Braves expected to start Chris Sale in this one and the Angels are likely trotting out Griffin Canning to the mound for this one.  Sale is 13-3 with a 2.61 ERA this season.  Canning is 4-10 with a 5.11 ERA on the year.  Sale is off an outing in which he threw 7 scoreless innings on the road and he has now allowed a total of only 13 earned runs in his last 10 road starts!  Canning has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 11 starts.  In addition to the starting pitching edge here for Atlanta, the Braves are seeking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss yesterday here in Anaheim.  The Braves are now off B2B road losses but this followed wins in 8 of 11 away from home.  Atlanta has not lost more than 2 straight road games since two months ago - all the way back in the middle of June!  The Braves had scored 6.3 runs per game in their 8-3 run on the road prior to these B2B losses.  We look for them to bounce back strong here against Canning and the hosts will not be able to keep up.  This is an Angels team that has averaged only 2.9 runs scored per game in their last 7 games.  Los Angeles is on a 5-9 run in home games and has scored only 2.4 runs per game in their last 9 games played here in Anaheim.  The Angels bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom half of the majors while the Braves bullpen ERA is among the top 3 teams in the majors!  The Braves are 22-13 in interleague action this season and 51 of their 64 wins on the season have come by 2 or more runs.  Lay the run line in this one!

#966 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This game is being priced with too much emphasis on the starting pitching match-up and, even then, there is a flawed perception here!  When one first looks at this match-up they see Garrett Crochet with a 3.65 ERA this season and a 3.30 ERA in his career.  One also sees Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie, with a 5.14 ERA this season!  Before we even get into the vast difference between the recent trending of the White Sox and Astros, there is also a big difference in trending between these pitchers and it is not what one would expect given those numbers.  Arrighetti has been pitching like a phenom of late while Crochet is dealing with a major stretch of struggles!  The Astros Arrighetti has been charged with only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in his last 5 starts and these have covered 31 innings on the mound!  Also, Arrighetti has struck out 33 in 19 innings over his last 3 starts!  Crochet has not lasted more than 4 innings in any of his last 6 starts and has averaged 3 innings per start!  Behind him is a very bad White Sox bullpen and also Crochet has given up 13 earned runs in 13.1 innings in his 4 outings since the All Star break!  About these teams, the Astros have won 8 straight games and have soared to 1st place in the NL West.  The White Sox, on other hand, are going down this season as one of the worst teams in all-time MLB history.  They head into this one with just 2 wins in 28 games and also are 11-49 on the road this season.  The Astros wins this season have featured 80% of them coming by a margin of at least 2 runs.  Chicago's losses have seen 68 of 93 come by a multi-run margin.  Strong odds on yet another blowout loss for the White Sox in this one.  Lay the run line in this one!

#972 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners Luis Castillo has a 2.82 ERA at home this season. He is off a fantastic July in which he went 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Seattle was off yesterday after a 6-0 shutout loss to the Phillies Sunday. The Mariners will be ready to bounce back off that loss here and had won 6 of 8 games before that loss. The Tigers have lost 9 of 12 games and scored only 2.8 runs a game in these dozen games. Detroit starter Keider Montero has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 4 starts and had allowed 5 earned runs in 3 straight outings before being charged with 4 earned runs in his most recent one. The rookie is 1-5 this season and opponents have hit .298 against him on the road this season. This one is set up well for the Mariners to roll big at home. The Tigers are off a 1-run loss but this followed a stretch where each of their 6 losses came by a minimum margin of 4 runs! We will lay the 1.5 runs here with confidence. The Mariners most recent win was by 1 run but this followed a stretch where each of their 9 victories prior to that one were by 2 or more runs. Lay the run line in this one!

#974 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge. The Astros have lost 3 straight games but are a perfect 3-0 since mid-May when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3+ games.  Houston was on a 43-25 run prior to this 3-game losing streak and we look for them to bounce right back here.  The Astros are starting Framber Valdez here and he is 5-2 at home this season.  He had a tough May but since then has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts.  The Pirates are starting Jake Woodford here.  He performed well on a minor-league contract after previously pitching with the White Sox earlier this season.  The trouble is, just like his starts earlier this season with the White Sox, Woodford has not performed well at the MLB level.  Woodford had a 10.80 ERA earlier this season for Chicago.  Also, last season for St Louis, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA in 15 games (8 starts).  Opponents hit .314 against him last season with the Cardinals and he got hit hard with the White Sox earlier this season too.  Now his debut with the Pirates and we expect his struggles to resume at the MLB level.  47 of 55 Houston wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  18 of 26 Pittsburgh road losses by a margin of 2 or more runs this season.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#960 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - We have stayed away from this series after we got burned with a 1-run win in the first game of the series and we had the run line.  Laying the -1.5 runs on the run line to avoid laying big prices always carries with it the risk of getting burned by a 1-run win but we like our chances for a home blowout in the series finale here.  Texas is going for the sweep and Chicago has now lost 10 straight games!  Note that the White Sox have scored only 2 runs per game last 11 games and the last 10 games in this low-scoring stretch have all been losses.  56 of 77 Chicago losses this season have come by a multi-run margin.  Texas has scored 5 runs per game last 20 games and has won 11 of 15 games.  Rangers build off the momentum of 3 straight wins in this series punctuated by the huge 10-2 win yesterday.  We look for the Rangers to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  The starting pitching match-up is expected to be Max Scherzer versus Jonathan Cannon.  Scherzer is off a tougher start but it came against the league-best hitting Orioles.  Now he faces the league-worst hitting White Sox!  He takes advantage and dominates.  Scherzer is still getting back to full strength after missing time with injury but this is a guy who has dominated for many years and facing light-hitting Chicago will help him round back into top form!  As for Cannon, he is a rookie and is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in his road starts and opponents hitting .313 against him away from home.  He catches the Rangers lineup confident off the 10-run outburst yesterday.  The surge continues here in a home blowout.  Lay it!

#969 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Rangers have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 29 to 9! With B2B high-scoring wins under their belt in this 4-game winning streak, Texas is quickly building up confidence at the plate. For the downtrodden Angels, the opposite is true! Los Angeles has lost 7 of 8 games! Also, in the 5 most recent losses in this stretch, LA has been outscored by a combined score of 29 to 5! You can definitely see these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Though the bullpen is not a strength for either team this season, the Angels bullpen ERA is the highest in the AL. Also, with Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one, that struggling bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one! Contreras hasn't gone beyond the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts and has been hit hard plus has more walks than strikeouts in these two outings. Contreras is only expected to get another start here because the Angels are currently so short on starting pitching. This will again cause the Angels bullpen to continue to be over-used. As for the expected Rangers starter here, Max Scherzer has been building up strength and pitch count since he resumed and he could even go 7 innings in this one! Scherzer has been handcuffing hitters and, though his strikeout numbers are lower than usual he is inducing plenty of weak contact. Pop ups, foul outs, ground outs ... those types of outs have been on display as Scherzer gears up. We look for another solid outing from him here as the Angels struggles at the plate continue. Again, a TOTAL of only 5 runs scored for the Angels in their last 5 losses! The Rangers continue to work their way back up the AL West standings as the Mariners and Astros are each off B2B losses. It is a long season and Texas is starting to believe again as they are not yet out of the hunt for another strong finish to the season and then of course there is always then hope of another post-season run like last season's World Champion team. As Texas surges, the Angels continue to falter as this team is just nowhere near the lineup it once was without Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and Trout (still injured) and their pitching has also been a big concern all season long. Look for the Rangers to stay red hot here and win this by a margin. About that margin, 16 of the Angels last 17 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 17 of the last 19 Texas wins have been by 2+ runs! Look for Texas to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings. Lay it!

#907 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Braves Chris Sale is having a fantastic season.  The Diamondbacks Yilber Diaz comes in with high expectations based on his minor league success but, of course, pitching at the MLB level is entirely different.  This is his MLB debut and he is facing a very tough assignment having to face the Braves.  As for Sale, he had one unreal ugly start versus Oakland in his last 11 starts.  In the other 10 starts he allowed a total of only 9 earned runs!  Not only that, Sale has allowed - other than that start against the A's - just 22 earned runs in 95.2 innings this season.  He is 8-1 with a 1.53 ERA in night games this season and has held opponents to a .163 batting average in those 9 starts.  We have fantastic line value here with the Braves available at -115 by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line in this spot.  Also, in terms of bullpens here, the Braves are #1 in the NL with a 2.97 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are #25 out 30 MLB teams with a 4.44 ERA.  Arizona is 20-27 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Diamondbacks are also 6-10 against NL East teams this season and 13-17 against left-handed starters.  Sale is a tough one so this is a really tough spot for Arizona as Diaz is likely to hit some stumbles in his first ever MLB appearance.  Atlanta off B2B wins over a strong Phillies team and the Braves have now won 14 of 23 games.  The Dbacks off B2B wins at San Diego but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games and Arizona has lost all 3 games with Atlanta this season plus 6 of last 8 dating back to last season!  Look for Atlanta to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

#928 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati Reds, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Yankees are at home and have Luis Gil on the mound and facing the Reds and Graham Ashcraft.  Gil is 9-3 this season with a 3.15 ERA and he has held opponents to a .169 batting average!  Ashcraft, on the other hand, has been trending the wrong way and has been charged with 18 earned runs spanning 19 innings over his last 4 starts.  The Yankees are off a big 8-1 win Sunday and got their bats going again in the final 3 games of their series with the Blue Jays at Toronto.  The Reds are off a 2-0 loss and have lost 10 of 15 games and scored only 1.9 runs per game in the 10 defeats.  Cincinnati is 18-29 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Yankees are 44-20 against right-handed starters this season.  Of course there is plenty of solid reasoning as to why the Yankees are so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a strong spot and available without any juice on the price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#914 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - The White Sox, even with some recent wins, still have the worst record in baseball and now they are on the road facing a tough Cleveland team.  Chicago is a paltry 8-33 in road games this season!  The White Sox are 17-43 when facing teams with a winning record!  The Guardians are 26-9 at home this season!  This is a complete mismatch but we get some line value here because Carrasco has an unimpressive ERA on the season for the Guardians.  The key with Carrasco is he actually has been trending well for the past two months with many solid outings and only two "off nights" in his last 8 starts which is skewing his numbers a bit.  Carrasco had a 3.00 ERA for the month of May and enters this start with 3 of his last 4 June outings seeing him allow only 5 earned runs in 16 innings.  Flexen starts for the White Sox here and he is 4-15 since the start of last season.  His ERA last season was 6.86 and his ERA this season is 5.13 thus far.  Chicago is 6-21 in divisional games this season.  11 of the Guardians last 13 victories have been by 2 or more runs and the White Sox have been held to 3 or less runs scored in 6 of last 9 road games.  Look for Cleveland to pull away as this game gets into the middle and later innings.  Lay it!

#922 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 6 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 27 of 43 since their rough start to the season.  Houston has been rolling and they are enjoying being at home where they have won 8 of 10 games.  Look for them to continue to take advantage of hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-28 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 17 of 23 overall.  The Astros have 39 wins this season and 34 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first 3 games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 25 to 8.  The Rockies 52 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Ryan Feltner, is in poor current form.  Feltner has allowed 18 earned runs in 21.1 innings spanning his 4 starts in June.  The Astros Spencer Arrighetti does not present a strong or even mediocre ERA based on his season numbers.  However when you look at his recent numbers, they have been skewed by one really bad start.  In his other 4 starts since late May, he has allowed only 5 earned runs in 19 innings.  He does not work deep into games but the Astros bullpen work is part of the reason they have vastly improved as the season has gone on.  Overall, in terms of team ERA the last 30 days the Astros have one of the best numbers in the majors while Colorado's team ERA is dead last.  The Rockies on the road have struggled again all season including losses in 7 of last road 10 games and they were outscored a combined 48 to 18 in the 7 losses.  Great spot to grab the value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot with a huge pitching edge.  The Astros have won 5 straight games and have been on a long-term surge.  Houston has won 26 of 42 since their rough start to the season.  Now they are at home where they have won 7 of 9 games and they are hosting a Rockies team that year in and year out is one of the worst road teams in the league in recent seasons.  Colorado is 11-27 on the road this season and enters this game having lost 16 of 22 overall.  The Astros have 38 wins this season and 33 of them have been by at least a 2-run margin so we feel especially comfortable laying the run line here.  Houston won the first two games this season between these teams and those wins were by a combined score of 20 to 6.  The Rockies 51 losses this season have included 40 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Rockies bullpen ERA ranks dead last in the majors.  The Colorado starter, Austin Gomber, is in dreadful current form.  Gomber has allowed 19 earned runs in 17.2 innings spanning his last 4 starts and 3 of the 4 outings were on the road so these numbers were not inflated because of Coors Field.  In fact, on the season, Gomber has been worse on the road than at home as he is 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA away from home.  The Astros Hunter Brown has been in top form of late while Gomber is winless with a 9.68 ERA in his 4 June outings!  Brown, on the other hand, has a 2.45 ERA in his last 9 starts spanning May and June!  Brown has dominated his last two starts with 0 walks and 15 strikeouts and only 1 earned run in 13 innings!  Brown and the Astros enter this game with confidence riding high and they are home.  The Rockies back on the road where they have struggled again all season including losses in 6 of last 9 games and they were outscored a combined 43 to 16 in the 6 losses.  Big edges all around for the home team here.  There is a reason Houston is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the strong value with a surging team at home and hosting a road-adverse foe.  This is especially true with the bet available at a modest, yet reasonable, price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#924 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Texas Rangers, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound while Texas counters with Michael Lorenzen. The Brewers right-hander Peralta is off a great start in LA against the Angels but he had a rare poor outing in his most recent home start.  Prior to that Peralta was in fine form at home and he wants to make up for that rare unusually rough home start with a gem here versus the defending world champs.  Texas has definitely taken a step back this season and the Rangers are in for a tough one versus Peralta here.  Prior to the bad home start, Peralta had allowed only 12 earned runs in his 5 home starts this season and struck out 40 in 27.2 innings here at home in Milwaukee.  The Brewers bats will face a downward-trending Lorenzen here. The Rangers right-hander has managed to limit the damage in recent starts but the signs are there that he is regressing.  Lorenzen has had nearly as many homers allowed (5) as strikeouts registered (6) in his last 3 starts.  That is not a good sign and we look for the Brewers lineup to take advantage. Milwaukee has scored about 5 runs per game over their last 8 games and wins in 10 of last 12 home games with solid offensive production at home during this dozen-game stretch will add to the confidence level at the plate in this one.  All the edges point to the home team and another multi-run margin win here (10 of last 12 Brewers home wins by 2+ runs!). We are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Brewers. Lay it!

#921 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Super situational edges here because Jonathan Cannon is off a rare strong start.  He has been struggling in the minors this season and it was the same last season as well.  Prior to this strong start Cannon just had at Seattle he had been hit hard in each of his last 2 starts at the MLB level.  The Astros are expected to start Framber Valdez here and he is off a bad start but this followed 3 straight quality starts in which he allowed only 5 earned runs on 12 hits spanning 22 innings over these 3 starts.  The White Sox have the worst record in baseball this season and have won only 26% of their games.  The Astros started the season 7-19 but have since gone 26-20 which may not sound that great but it is much better than Chicago and also would equate to a 92-70 record over the course of a full season.  The point is that the Astros have been playing better and we have no hesitation in facing this 19-54 White Sox team!  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a small price by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#978 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers won last night's game but only by a run but we are projecting a blowout here.  It was interesting to us that of over 100 pitches in his last start, only 7 were swinging strikes for Seth Lugo.  His strikeout numbers are down and his earned runs are up in recent starts.  In Lugo's last two for the Royals he has allowed 9 earned runs in 13 innings!  Lugo did allow 2 homers in most recent road start also.  The Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto here and he has allowed only 19 earned runs in 71 innings ever since his 2nd start of the season!   Yamamoto has been fantastic and the Royals are 12-20 this season against teams with a winning record!  The Dodgers are 32-19 in night games this season.  Kansas City has lost 12 of 18 games and 11 of the last 15 losses have been by a multi-run margin.  LA, prior to yesterday, had delivered 31 multi-run wins out of their last 37 wins. We like the odds on a big win here for the home team given numbers like that.  There is a reason Los Angeles is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Dodgers barely snuck out the 1-run win last night and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at small plus money by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#967 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Yankees have the best record in baseball.  Even though the Red Sox are a .500 team they have padded their record against bad teams.  Against teams that currently have a winning record this season, Boston has gone an ugly 11-23 this season.  The Red Sox are 7-12 against left-handed starters and only 19-25 in night games this season.  The Yankees are 33-14 in night games and 41-16 against right-handed starters this season.  The Red Sox are expected to start right-hander Cooper Criswell and he has been charged with 11 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 games.  The Yankees are expected to start left-hander Carlos Rodon and he has been fantastic in 9 of his last 10 starts including 10 in a row!  In those 9 starts he has allowed only 12 earned runs on just 34 hits in 56 innings!  Yesterday was an 8-1 win for the Yankees and with consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Boston again here.  There is a reason New York is so heavily favored on the money line even though the Yankees are on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#958 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The A's have lost 5 straight games and have scored only 2.4 runs per game in those 5 defeats.  Now the Athletics visit Minnesota to take on a Twins team off a huge win yesterday in which they scored 17 runs!  Minnesota is surging with confidence right now at the plate as they also took advantage of a recent extra-innings opportunity to score 11 runs in that high-scoring victory.  The Twins have won 7 of 10 home games and have momentum on their side here.  Oakland is 11-24 on the road and 8-24 against teams with a winning record on the season.  The Twins have feasted on facing weaker teams as Minnesota is 24-11 when facing teams that do NOT have a winning record on the season.  31 of the A's 44 losses this season by at least 2 runs and this one will be as well.  Minnesota is starting Joe Ryan here and he has a 3.30 ERA this season.  Luis Medina expected to start for Oakland here and he had a 5.42 ERA last season and is just now getting back into the rotation for Oakland this season and got rocked in his most recent start which was just his 2nd outing this season.  With consideration to all the factors above, we expect another big loss for Oakland again here.  There is a reason Minnesota is so heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#958 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The White Sox are starting Drew Thorpe.  Not only is the young rookie hurler making his MLB debut, he is skipping AAA ball to make it.  Thorpe has only made 38 appearances in the minors in his career and, though he has had good numbers, his stats were accumulated at the AA and single A levels in the minors!  Jumping all the way up to face major league hitters, and on the road no less, is not an easy task for a young pitcher.  The Mariners will take advantage and we also look for a strong start from Seattle starter Bryan Woo in this one!  Woo has absolutely dominated this season with a 1.07 ERA and a .139 batting average against in his 6 starts!  Woo has struck out 24 and walked just 2 and he has a 0.57 ERA in his 3 home starts this season!  Also, Woo has not allowed a single earned run in his 3 night starts - 0.00 ERA in 16 innings!  The White Sox are 5-27 on the road this season and 8-33 against teams with a winning record!  Also, Seattle is 22-11 at home and Chicago is 12-41 against right-handed starters this season.  78% of White Sox losses (39 of 50) have been by 2 or more goals and we expect another big loss for Chicago again here.  There is a reason Seattle is heavily favored on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at very small juice by laying the -1.5 runs!  We will take it!  Lay it!

#913 ASA PLAY ON Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 4:10 PM ET - Finally! The White Sox 14 game losing streak came to an end yesterday but don't look for Chicago to suddenly start building a win streak! In fact, the White Sox are just 2-18 last 20 games! Also, they send Nick Nastrini to the mound and he is 0-5 with a 9.74 ERA this season! Boston sends Brayan Bello to the mound for this one and he is 6-2 with a 4.36 ERA on the season. Bello has a 1.25 WHIP and Nastrini has a 2.07 WHIP so these two starting pitchers have certainly had widely varying results so far this season! Bello is 4-1 on the road this season and though he has given up a few more earned runs of late, he has remained quite tough to hit and the White Sox - yesterday notwithstanding - are typically dreadful at the plate. That is another part of the reason that Chicago's last 24 losses have included 21 by a margin of 2 or more runs. Of course there is a reason Boston is heavily favored on the road on the money line here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. The Red Sox have 32 wins this season and 25 of them have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Boston is 15-9 in day games this season and the White Sox are 6-21 in day games this season. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at a fair price by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#965 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Angels are off of a surprising sweep at home over the Padres. However, Los Angeles entered that series just 7-21 at home this season and we are certainly not sold on this Angels team. They have a very weak lineup and even including their 3-game win streak have scored only 35 runs in their last 13 games - an average of 2.7 runs per game. The Astros had won 3 of 4 games and scored about 6 runs per game prior to a 4-2 loss versus St Louis. Houston has underachieved this season but there is still quality with this team especially in comparison with an Angels team that no longer has Ohtani (now with Dodgers) and is currently without Trout due to injury. We like this revenge spot for Framber Valdez as he was cruising along with a 6-1 lead at home when things suddenly unraveled in a crazy top of the 5th in which the Angels got to him for 7 runs with 4 of those coming with 2 outs in the inning. In his other 4 starts since early May, Valdez has allowed a total of only 6 earned runs. He will be tough here in this revenge spot as, when he is dialed in and focused, he is a tough one on the mound. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning here. He gave up only 3 earned runs but was tagged for 9 hits in his most recent home start. Canning had a 6.13 ERA in his 3 home starts in April. The fact is, Canning has struggled at times in his home starts this season and we look for that again here. As for the bullpens, Astros relievers have a 3.60 ERA this season while the Angels bullpen is one of the worst in the majors with a 4.71 ERA. There is a reason Houston is heavily favored on the road here and it has led to particularly solid value on the run line in this one. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team in a great spot and available at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#908 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Rockies are 8-23 on the road this season and went 22-59 the season before that and went 27-54 the year before that and 26-54 the year before that. Yes Colorado is a disastrous 83-190 in road games since the start of the 2021 season! We love the value here in fading the road-adverse Rockies as the Cardinals appear set to notch a blowout home win in this one. Sonny Gray gets the call for St Louis here and he is 4-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his home starts this season. Opponents are hitting only .167 against him in home starts this season! The Rockies counter with Cal Quantrill and he is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA in night game outings this season. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA overall for the season. The Rockies have lost 5 straight games overall and are 2-7 in last 9 road games. The Cardinals are on a 14-7 run including wins in 5 straight home games and 7 of last 8 as a host. The Rockies are 1-8 against Central Division teams this season. 30 of the Rockies 40 losses this season have been by a multi-run margin and our computer math model shows this one has most likely a Cards win by 3 runs with a margin of 4 and 2 the next most likely outcomes. Look for the Cardinals to roll big here. Great spot to grab the solid value with the home team at a very fair price offered by laying the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#964 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Yankees have won 6 straight games and 23 of 29. Like the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been the red hot team in the AL. Of course this is why the Yankees are a heavily priced home favorite here. The value comes into play in looking at the run line and that is available at +110 in the market place and is a great value when you look at recent margin of victory results for the Yankees. 21 of the Yankees last 22 wins have been by at least 2 runs! As the money line (in 190 range) shows you, the Yankees are likely to make it 7 straight wins here. As the 21 of 22 stat shows you, the Yankees are also likely to have that victory come by a multi-run margin! These teams matched up in Minnesota in mid-May and Chris Paddack faced Carlos Rodon in one of the games in that series. The Yankees and Rodon won that game 5 to 1. Not only that, Paddack allowed 12 hits in 5 innings and Rodon allowed only 6 hits in 6 innings. We look for dominance again in the rematch. Paddack has a .287 batting average against this season and has been in that range each of the last 3 seasons. Rodon has a .222 batting average against this season and it is .233 in his career. He is 7-2 this season and has been particularly dominant at home with a 3-0 record and a 2.13 ERA! The Twins have lost 11 of 20 including losing 6 of last 10 on the road. The Yankees have won all 4 games against the Twins this season and with big edges in this one, a home blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a comeback price in the +110 range with the Yankees. Great spot to grab the solid value with the hot team at plus money with the -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#926 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Chicago White Sox, SuNday at 2:10 PM ET - Though we fell short with our run line play on the Brewers Saturday, we fade the White Sox again Sunday as they are now 15-44 on the season and have lost 10 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 8 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago similar to how they punishing the White Sox bullpen in Friday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 12 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-29 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and the White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 19-game stretch (3-16 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 25-8 record and 1.22 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-16 record and a 1.49 WHIP - last in the American League!  Of course the starting pitching edge is massive with Peralta rock solid while Nastrini has a winless record and a 9.92 ERA on the season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and even having to play a -150 price range with the Brewers.  Grab the much stronger team at -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#976 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+140) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-43 on the season and have lost 9 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 7 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.6 runs a game in the 7 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago after punishing their bullpen in yesterday's 12-5 win!  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-28 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Robert Gasser here.  The rookie has a solid 1.96 ERA this season in his 4 starts and has had fantastic command with only 1 walk in 23 innings!  The White Sox are starting Garrett Crochet here and, though he has solid numbers on the season, he has been struggling at times on the road including allowing 13 earned runs in 19 innings in his 4 away starts since mid-April!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!   The White Sox have scored an average of only 2.6 runs in an 18-game stretch (3-15 record).  In terms of bullpens here, Milwaukee relievers have a 24-8 record and 1.24 WHIP.  White Sox relievers have a 4-15 record and a 1.48 WHIP - last in American League!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +140 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#928 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-42 on the season and have lost 8 straight games!  Milwaukee has won 6 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs a game in the 6 victories.  We expect the Brewers to stay hot here versus Chicago.  Milwaukee is having a solid season and is 10 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 8-31 this season when facing a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are the much better team and are starting Tobias Myers here.  The rookie has a solid 1.80 ERA this season in his 3 evening games - 2 starts!  The White Sox are starting Erick Fedde here and, though he has decent numbers on the season, he has been struggling on the road including allowing 5 earned runs in each of his two away starts this month!  He also is highly unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense!  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a solid plus money return in the +130 range with the Brewers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a nice comeback price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it!

#919 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Wednesday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-41 on the season! Chicago has lost 7 straight games and 11 of 12 games! Toronto is off to a slow start this season but they are getting closer to .500 as they already have taken advantage of facing the White Sox here and winning B2B games by a combined count of 12 to 3 to begin this series. The White Sox are a horrible 10-34 this season when facing a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are the much better team and have now won 6 of 10 games and are showing signs of turning things around. Speaking of turnarounds, Alek Manaoh expected to start for the Jays here and he is off of a tough start but was victimized by a couple big hits and a couple of the runs were unearned. Manaoh has held opponents to just 10 hits in 19 innings in his last 3 starts. The White Sox are starting Chris Flexen here and he has been charged with 14 earned runs in 13 innings in his last 3 starts. All were tough outings and we expect more of the same here and he is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and laying hardly any juice with the Blue Jays. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#911 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got a win Tuesday but then resumed their losing ways yesterday (we had the Blue Jays for a win over Chicago). Now on Thursday we fade the White Sox again as they are now 15-35 on the season! Baltimore is off of being swept in their series at St Louis and being on the wrong end of series sweeps like that for the Orioles has certainly been rare in recent seasons. We expect the Orioles to bounce back here and get healthy at Chicago. Baltimore is having a solid season and are 11 games over .500 this season plus the White Sox are a horrible 6-23 this season when facing a team with a winning record. The Orioles are the much better team and have not lost more than 3 straight yet this season and that only happened twice the entire season last year! Baltimore is starting Garrett Rodriguez and he is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season! The White Sox are starting Mike Clevinger here and he is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his 3 starts this season. He has yet to complete 5 innings in any of his 3 starts and is unlikely to get much run support from this anemic Chicago offense also! Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a road blowout is our call. We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a moderate (but fair) price in the -140 range with the Orioles. Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs! Lay it!

#970 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday but are still only 15-34 on the season and they are also 1-5 on the season when they enter a road game coming off a win in their prior game. Chicago is also an ugly 5-20 on the season in road games!  Toronto has not been great this season but they are a .500 team at home and a .500 team when facing a team with a losing record.  The Blue Jays are the better team and had won B2B games plus allowed only 3 runs per game the last 6 games previous to the loss yesterday to the White Sox. Toronto is a perfect 3-0 (including 2-0 this season) when coming off a shutout loss.  Toronto is starting Bassitt and he has been rounding into form with solid starts in 6 of his last 7 outings.  He allowed only 2 runs per start in those 6 games.  Bassitt is a much better pitcher than his ERA so far this season would indicate.  The White Sox are starting a struggling Nastrini here as he was 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA in his 6 minor league starts this season.  He also has struggled in his only two starts at the MLB level this year which is his rookie season.  Big edges in this one, including on the mound, and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Blue Jays.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#920 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Angels rallied from a 6-1 deficit yesterday in a 9-7 win.  The Astros were 9-2 last 11 games prior to yesterday's loss.  Houston is 3-0 L3 games when they are coming off a loss.  The Angels are 0-3 L3 games when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games.  Los Angeles is starting Griffin Canning here and he is 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA when pitching on the road this season.  The Astros are starting Cristan Javier here and he is 3-0 with an 0.75 ERA in his 4 starts at home this season.  Javier is 33-18 with a 3.55 ERA in his MLB career.  The Angels continued their big success (7-2 YTD) against left-handed starters with yesterday's upset win.  However, LA is 12-27 against right-handed starters this season.  The Astros have the bullpen edge here as well with an ERA ranking middle of MLB while the Angels bullpen ERA is among the worst in the major league.  Houston is hitting .274 in home games this season and that ranks at the top of the majors!  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We are getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -105 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and -1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies are at home and off a home loss last night in a game they blew a late lead and lost in extra innings. It was a sloppy ending to an otherwise strong stretch of 3 straight wins over the Mets. Grabbing the Phillies off a loss has been a cash cow this season as the Phillies are 11-1 the last 12 times they have entered a game off a loss. Also, 16 of the last 20 Phillies wins have been by 2 or more runs! So Philadelphia is in a great bounce back spot and also likely to win big. The Nationals come into this game having lost 4 of 5 games and they have scored an average of only 1 run the 4 losses! Washington is hitting only .221 on the road this season which is 2nd to LAST in the NL as only the Marlins are hitting worse. The Phillies are hitting .264 in evening games which is 2nd only to the Dodgers in all of MLB this season! Wheeler gets the start for Philadelphia here and he is coming off a rare tougher start but that was on the road and means bounce back time here! Wheeler has a 1.44 ERA in home games this season and has held opponents to a .167 batting average in his 5 home starts while striking out 44 in 31 innings! The Nationals start Jake Irvin here and he has pitched better of late but he has had some tougher starts against stronger hitting teams. Above, we talked about the Phillies being second to only the Dodgers in team batting average in evening games this season. Well, LA got to Irvin for 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings the last time he faced them. Also, Irvin gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings when the Phillies faced him earlier this season. Irvin was 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA last year in evening action in his rookie season. This year he also has a higher ERA in night games (4.86 ERA) than day games. The Nationals are just 6-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball and are in an 11-1 situation. Also, 16 of 22 Nationals losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and laying the 1.5 runs! Lay it for a Top Play!

#956 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line. The Dodgers are off a loss but this followed having won 17 of 21 games and 20 of last 22 wins have been by 2+ runs. LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 29 wins this season! The Dodgers have averaged 5.3 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors! The Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they are hitting only .218 on the season! Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .462 and batting average of .262 to lead the majors so far this season! HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Reds have a mediocre bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers. Also, LA is starting Tyler Glasnow and he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season. The Reds are starting Brent Suter here but he is more of an opener and Nick Martinez is likely to get most of the work since Nick Lodolo was put on the DL. Martinez has a 4.86 ERA this season and has been quite hittable! Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -155 range with the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 5-0 the last 5 times they have entered a game off a loss. Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs! Lay it!

#924 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - Astros are a 5 to 2 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Astros have won 5 of 6 games.  Before yesterday's 2-1 win in extra innings, 14 of the first 16 wins this season for Houston have been by 2 or more runs!  The Athletics have lost 8 of 10 games and Oakland, prior to yesterday's loss by a single run, had 14 of last 17 losses come by 2 or more runs.  Oakland starting Aaaron Brooks here and he is 9-13 with a 6.55 ERA in his MLB career.  Brooks was struggling in the minors so far this season but the A's giving him a shot here in his first MLB start since 2019 and first MLB appearance since 2022.    Houston starting Framber Valdez and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts.  He also has walked only 3 batters last four starts and is rounding into form after missing a lot of time in April.  While Houston is on a 5-1 run, the A's are on a 2-8 run and we like the value here as Houston is not use to looking up to Oakland in the standings and they continue to bounce back from slow start while the A's slump continues.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -120 range with the Astros.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - Dodgers are a 3 to 1 favorite on the money line but we get value by utilizing the run line.  The Dodgers have won 5 straight games and 12 of 14 games and 10 of those 12 wins were by 2+ runs.  LA has an average margin of victory of 4 runs in their 2 dozen wins this season!  The Dodgers have averaged 5.5 runs per game this season and are one of the top hitting teams in the majors!  The Marlins are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and they have been particularly bad under the lights.  In night games, Miami is scoring just 2.5 runs per game and their slugging percentage (yes, SLUGGING percentage) is only .275 in night games this season!  Compare that to a Dodgers team that has a slugging percentage of .487 and batting average of .292 under the lights this season!  HUGE difference and, speaking of huge variances, the Marlins have a weak bullpen while that is a strength of the Dodgers.  Also, LA is starting Yoshinobu Yamamoto and he is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA this season.  The Marlins are starting Edward Cabrera and, though he gets a lot of strikeouts, he also gives up too many mistake pitches too.  That is why the Miami right-hander has been charged with 12 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 outings.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the -145 range with the Dodgers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the much stronger team at a fair price and 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#961 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - Rangers off a shutout loss 1-0 yesterday.  Bounce back spot here for Texas and they have a solid pitching edge here too.  Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals and he has been shaky in both his road starts including the most recent one.  That was against a weak hitting Marlins team in Miami and Parker had to navigate 8 baserunners in just 4 innings and was fortunate to allow only 1 run.  The Rangers are going with Nathan Eovaldi here and, though he has had some issues with walks this season, he has been strong overall at home and has a huge experience edge over Parker here.  Eovaldi is entering his 14th season and he has a 2.04 ERA at home and has piled up strikeouts there!  The Rangers are 10-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or less runs and that includes 8 in a row!  This spot should make 9 in a row as Washington is 1-5 this season when off a road win by a margin of 2 or less runs.  Remember last season only ONE team in the NL had fewer wins than the Nationals.  As for the Rangers, they are the defending World Series Champions (Eovaldi was 5-0 in P/O and was the winning pitcher in the World Series clincher)!  Given that, as well as all of the above and the great situational support, this is a superb spot.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the even money range with the Rangers.  Great spot to grab the solid value with the 1.5 runs!  Lay it! 

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play.  The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball.  Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series!  Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate.  Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep!  The Twins bats have come alive big-time!  Also, they hold a big pitching edge here.  Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts.  It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season.  He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings!  He will be no match for Joe Ryan here.  Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too.  However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long.  He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each.  11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety.  We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout.  Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota

#975 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Astros won 12-4 yesterday and the posted total on this game is 16 because of where it is being played.  This one at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City.  Yesterday's game totaled 16 runs and this 2-game series is playing out in similar fashion to last year's 2-game series between the Padres and Giants in the thin air of Mexico City and with this stadium having modest dimensions. The thing is, just like yesterday, it is the Astros bats that will make the most noise.  The Rockies have just 2 high-scoring wins in their current 3-10 run over the last 13 games.  How did those other 11 games go?  Just 1.8 runs scored per game!  This is despite many of those games being played at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  The fact is that Colorado is just not hitting!  As for the Astros, they have had a surprisingly tough start to this season and also have struggled at the plate but yesterday's game is a sign of things to come!  Houston won 12 to 4 yesterday and had 6 extra-base hits including 3 homers while the Rockies had just 1 extra base hit - a 2-run homer by McMahon in the first inning.  The Astros scored the next 12 runs in that game after that McMahon bomb.  In the pitching match-up today Valdez has pitched less so far this season but his ERA is half of Gomber's ERA plus he has allowed no homers while Gomber has already allowed 4 long balls!  Also, Valdez dominated in his 2nd start after struggling some in his first start.  Gomber had an ERA of at least 5.50 each of the last two seasons while Valdez entered this season 40-23 the last 3 seasons and with an ERA right around the 3.00 mark!  Another road blowout expected here per our computer math model.  Lay it as, just like yesterday, the Astros roll big again! 

#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener.  That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level.  Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years.  Tyler hardly has any big league experience.  The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here.  He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings!  There is also a great disparity between these two lineups!  Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season!  Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs!  Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs!  Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season.  Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record!  Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run.  Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses.  Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins.  6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season.  That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well.  Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves.  Lay it!

#927 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Orioles are not only 15-7 this season, 14 of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs.  There is no hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs here.  Also, Baltimore is hot as they have won 7 of 8 games!  The Orioles are hitting much better than the Angels this season plus they have the pitching edge here too.  Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA this season!  The Angels Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA this season!  The Orioles have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games.  LA has averaged 1.8 runs per game in their last 5 games, all defeats!  Not only have the Angels lost 5 straight games, they also have lost 10 of 13 since their 6-4 start this season.  11 of 14 Los Angeles defeats this season have come by a multi-run margin.  The Orioles full season slugging percentage is about 100 points higher than that of the Angels who have Trout and Ward and O'Hoppe in their lineup but very little else up and down the lineup!  The Orioles will pull away as this game goes on.  The Angels just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money price in the +105 range with the Orioles.  Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#953 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Braves are off a loss and have not lost B2B games this season.  Not only that, it was a 16-4 loss and this was after Atlanta started the season 7-3 and all 3 losses were by just a single run.  Atlanta will be very focused today after being on the wrong end of a rare bad beatdown in their most recent game.  The Marlins are off a win but that was just their 2nd win of the season as they lost 10 of 11 to start the season.  Also, prior to a 3-2 loss in the most recent defeat, Miami was on a run in which, since their season opener, each of their next 9 losses had all come by 2+ runs.  We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here even though Max Fried is off to a rare bad start to this season.  If he struggles here, the Braves have a rested bullpen as they had a rainout Wednesday and then Thursday they used just 3 relievers over 4 innings and their best bullpen guys are rested and ready here.  Trevor Rogers, the Marlins starter, has also struggled early this season and the Miami bullpen behind him has one of the worst WHIPs (1.62) in the majors so far this season.  The big key here is at the plate as the Braves are hitting .303 for the #1 batting average in the majors while the Marlins are hitting .204 for the worst batting average in the National League.  Atlanta gets back on track after the ugly loss as they outscored the opposition by an average score of 6.9 to 4.3 over their first 10 games.  The Marlins last 10 losses have been by an average margin of 3.9 runs!  Miami has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of last 6 losses and now, facing the hottest lineup in the majors, the Braves will pull away as this game goes on.  The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here.  Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest a pick'em price in the -115 range with the Braves.  Lay it! 

#978 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Yankees favored by a little over -200 on the money line so, of course, the value way to look at this match-up is the run line and what a value it is!  This match-up is featuring the team with the best record in the league against the team with the worst record thus far as the 10-2 Yankees wrap up their 3-game set with the Marlins.  The Yankees are 10-2 this season and the Marlins are 1-11 thus far.  Yankees have a fantastic 2.48 team ERA on the season while Miami has a 5.17 team ERA on the season.  Specifically about the starters here, the Marlins send Ryan Weathers to the mound and he has a 6.14 ERA in his 22 innings since coming to Miami from San Diego during last season.  He has walked 17 batters in 22 innings and that includes command issues already this season as well.  New York's Stroman on the other hand has allowed no earned runs and only 7 hits in his 12 innings on the mound so far this season. He is very happy to be back home as he is a New York native and always wanted to wear the Yankees pinstripes!  He already had his home debut versus the Blue Jays and dominated them.  He should have no trouble with this struggling Marlins lineup.  Miami is hitting just .204 this season and has scored an average of only 3 runs in their 11 losses.  The Yankees are hitting .247 this season but with a slugging percentage near .400 compared to the Marlins near .300 slugging percentage! Also the Yankees have scored an average of 6 runs in their 10 wins this season.  6 to 3 (and at least a 2-run margin) sounds about right to us here!  Huge edges here and a home blowout is our call.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price in the -110 range with the Yankees.  Lay it! 

#957 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - Arizona is off a tough series at Atlanta but, prior to dropping the finale of a series with the Yankees and then struggling with the red hot Braves, the Diamondbacks were 4-2 on the young season. Now they go from facing one of the best teams (Braves) to facing one of the worst (Rockies). Colorado is 2-8 this season and the Rockies already lost 3 of 4 at Arizona to start this season. However, it wasn't just that the Rockies lost 3 of 4, it was the fact Colorado was outscored by an aggregate of 32 to 14 in that series! On the season, the Diamondbacks have a 3.90 ERA compared to a 7.50 ERA for the Rockies. Additionally, when one looks at the two starting pitchers here, it is evident that Arizona has a huge edge. Zac Gallen is 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA on the season. He'll be on the hill for the Diamondbacks here while the Rockies turn to a struggling Kyle Freeland. The Colorado left-hander has been crushed in both his starts and those were each on the road and now he makes his first home start of the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field! He is allowing 3 earned runs per inning on the season after two starts - yes, a 27.00 ERA! Arizona is hitting .274 on the season and holding opponents to a .240 batting average. Colorado is hitting .240 on the season and their pitchers have an opponents batting average of .312 so far this season. Huge edges here and a road rout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very reasonable price in the -120 range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it!

#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Even though Kyle Harrison is off a decent start to open up his season, he gave up some hard-hit balls including a number of line drive outs plus many of his outs were through the air. If he does not keep the ball down more against this tough Dodgers lineup he is in trouble here. Also, he is still just a 22-year old that only made 7 starts last season and had a respectable, but not spectacular, 4.15 ERA. He will not be able to match Tyler Glasnow here. Thanks to the Dodgers having opened the season in South Korea against the Padres, this is already the 3rd start for Glasnow. So far he has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings and he has held hitters to a paltry .216 batting average in his career. Last season 84% of the Dodgers wins were by at least a 2-run margin and no team in baseball had a better home record than their 53-28 mark. This is a match-up they should dominate. LA is hitting better than the Giants so far this season and SF pitching is getting hit at a .291 clip while Dodgers pitching is allowing only a .226 batting average! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Dodgers. Lay it!

#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season.  Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side.  Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last  5 games.  57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.

#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina.  Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery.  The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season.  The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale.  83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs.  67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season.  Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games.  He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month.  This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here.  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East.  They are getting close but they are not quite there yet.  Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title.  While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year.  The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray.  Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling.  This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing.  In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings!  As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season.  Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September.  The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin.  The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one.

#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley.  He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings!  Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September.  Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season.  Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team.  Trout is still out and may not even play again this season.  If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats.  This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year.  The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL.  Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats.  They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field.  9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs.  19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs.  This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category!  We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!

#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings.  Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him.  St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday.  The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one.

#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one.

#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one.  As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here.  Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games.  He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then!  The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season.  Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break.  The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay.  They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams.  Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins.  They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be.  No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins.  By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here.  In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs.  Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst.  Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor.  Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next!  Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin.  All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! 

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month.  In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies!  Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home!  Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin.  The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season.  Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over.  The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles.  All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! 

#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen.  The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record.  The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record.  You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9.  The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin.  The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin.  The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season.  The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season.  More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also.  We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday!

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday!

#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record.  The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season.  Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting.  The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin.  The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs.  More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge.  Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season.  Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors.  In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots.  Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs.  Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets.  Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago.  Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month.  it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers!  We’ll lay the -1.5 here.

#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one.   We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here!