Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
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10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
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09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
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09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |