ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks!

ASA play on 8* Gonzaga -8 over Virginia, 4PM ET The Zags are the best team in college basketball, and they’ve proven it against some elite competition this season with wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and even a solid Auburn team. Virginia can’t say the same thing as their best win was in OT over an average MAC team Kent State. We know Tony Bennett coached teams are going to play fantastic defense, but we also know they’ll struggle to score. The Cavaliers best offensive option is Sam Hauser but they lack scoring beyond him. Last season the Cavs had the #1 ranked defensive efficiency rating but were 234th in OEFF. Gonzaga though does it on both ends of the court with an OEFF rating of 1.189PPP this season (2nd) and a DEFF rating of .895PPP (14th). Last season the Zags were the #1 ranked offensive team in the nation and 43rd defensively. Virginia just can’t keep pace offensively here and it ends up being a double-digit win by Gonzaga.

ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State!

ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win.

ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET

We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech.  We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday.  This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season.  They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did.  UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated.  Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy.  Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury.  Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time.  Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists.  They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season.  UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange.  North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT.  They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome.  We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally.  Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one.  The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech).  They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer.  UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road.  Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here.  North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Georgia State -5 over Georgia Southern, Wed at 7 PM ET

These two just met here on Georgia State’s home court on February 28th.  We released Georgia Southern +5.5 on that day and picked up the win as the Eagles pulled the upset 79-70.  We flip the script here in a completely different situation and we’ll grab Georgia State, who is 12-2 at home this year, looking to avenge their rivalry loss.  In their meeting on February 28th we had a number of reasons for siding with Georgia Southern including they fact they were playing very well at the time and they also blew a home lead earlier in the year losing to Georgia State.  In their 79-70 win on the road, the Eagles picked up some serious help from the officials which we were happy about at the time.  They shot a whopping 38 FT’s to just 16 for Georgia State (+12 made FT’s) which in a 9 point game was obviously a major factor.  The Panthers also played terrible on offense making only 35% of their shots (they average 46% at home) and they put up only 0.85 points per possession which was by far their worst home performance of the year.  In fact, they had not been held to less than 1.00 point per possession in any of their other 13 home games.  Southern shot 48% (they average 44% for the season) and that along with 38 FT attempts made it extremely tough for the Panthers at home.  Georgia State responded nicely closing out the regular season beating Texas State, the Sun Belt Champion, by 19 points.  Ga Southern has struggled a bit since that win losing at home to Arkansas State as an 8 point favorite and then barely getting by Louisiana, who finished 8-12 in the conference, by just 1 point and that was a home game for Southern.  That game was also on Monday, just 2 days ago, while Georgia State has had much more time to rest.  In their home game vs Louisiana, the Eagles had to come from 16 points down with 11:00 minutes left in the game to get the 1 point win.  They didn’t take the first lead of the 2nd half until 1:00 minute remaining in the game and held on.  We like Georgia State to bounce back and play very well at home on Wednesday.  They were hoping for this rematch and they get it.  Lay the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010.  This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year.  They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season.  We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason.  It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney.  New life for this team.  They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend.  UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining.  This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep.  Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January.  Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney.  Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th.  Both are back and healthy.  Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries.  This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season.  Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters.  Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to.  We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes.  This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday).  These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77.  The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road.  UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses.  Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road).  We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET

The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court.  This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay.  We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games.  That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63.  Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney.  We think that absolutely favors Green Bay.  They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team.  The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th.  They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight.  So plenty of rest between games while still playing.  NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd.  Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days.  Not ideal in our opinion.  These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9.  The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up.  They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th).  The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one.  UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season.  The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense.  They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting.  In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7.  In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference.  When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits.  The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now.  Take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one.  In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament.  In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here.  The physical toll is just too much to overcome.  They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much.  Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games.  Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”.  Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes.  We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness.  Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired.  There is no way around that.  They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games.  After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game.  Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense.  The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s).  Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season.  The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo.  They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes.  Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State.  These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home.  The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot.  Lay it with Bradley.   

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET

We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home.  These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point.  Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss.  For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago.  Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game).  We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings.  The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58.  In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way!  The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year.  We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%.  They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once.  MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season.  Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points.  Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3.  Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play.  MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do.  This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET

After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid.  Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington.  VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter.  There is a good chance both sit again tonight.  Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season.  They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples.  In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference).  Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league).  The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate.  The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally.  We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team.  Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch.  Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win.  This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here.  VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.  In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games.  Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog.  With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN

Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out.  However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend.  Winning both would probably get them in.  Just a huge home stand for Memphis.  Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here.  The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on.  Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so.  In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry.  That simply almost never happens.  Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not.  Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight.  Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble.  The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday.  As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %.  They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier.  To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time.  Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc.  Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road.  The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET

We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games.  In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone.  Win your conference tourney and you’re in.  That’s not the case this week.  In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State).  KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58.  It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired.  Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game.  We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort.  With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play.  They have absolutely nothing to play for here.  They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play.  They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game.  Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward.  The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12).  This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation.  They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game.  Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12).  OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night.  The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here.  Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington.  Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home.  We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did.  This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game.  They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding.  They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play.  One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed.  They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed.  Tonight they have nothing to play for.  The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts.  This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons.  Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here.  Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons.  They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013.  Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion.  Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense.  They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%.  The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games.  Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale.  This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers.  We like Georgia State here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech.  The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half.  The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles.  The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech.  Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense.  The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66.  A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today.  The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia.  It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year.  Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53.  VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3.  That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss.  They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits.  Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs.  We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation.  They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago.  The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9.  They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots.  It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG.  That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games.  The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke.  In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA.  Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG.  Lay it with Louisville. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET

Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride.  Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season.  That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining.  They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC.  Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %.  They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast.  The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion.  They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.   Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play.  Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6.  The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far.  The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games.  Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well.  If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale.  With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special.  On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday.  Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference.  Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here.  If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points.  They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%.  They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams.  That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%.  Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good.  While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games).  The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier.  When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites.  The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley.  It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe.  We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Evansville -2 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This one is all about motivation.  These are the two worst teams in the MVC and they are locked into their spots with Evansville set to finish last and ISU set to finish one spot above the Aces no matter what happens here.  Evansville is currently 0-17 in conference play (9-21 overall) yet they are favored here?  That should tell you something.  Illinois State is 4-13 in conference play (9-20 overall) and they are coming off their rivalry game vs Bradley on Wednesday.  The Redbirds gave everything they had at home vs their arch rival but lost in OT.  That was their Super Bowl so to speak.  Now going on the road in a meaningless game we find it tough to see ISU playing well here.  Speaking of playing well, the Redbirds have not done so on the road this year where they have a record of 0-11 SU on the season.  Not only have they not won a road game, they haven’t been close with 11 of their 12 losses coming by at least 10 points.  Evansville has plenty of motivation not to become the first team since 1998 to go winless in the MVC.  The Aces have also been talking this week about winning a game for their only senior and leader KJ Riley.  They’ve also shown some promise at home down the stretch losing their last 3 home games by 7 points to Loyola (2nd place team in MVC), 2 points to Indiana State (4th place team in MVC) and by 4 points in OT to Southern Illinois (5th place team in MVC).  While they obviously haven’t gotten in done in conference play, the Aces do have some decent non-conference wins @ Kentucky (yes they beat the Cats on the road) and vs Murray State (first place team in OVC).  We think Evansville shows up and plays as hard as they have all season.  We also think Illinois State comes in flat with nothing to play for.  Both of these teams have 9 total wins this season, we like Evansville to move to 10 wins.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana State -5 over Valparaiso, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Valpo is off a big senior night win over Missouri State but we feel this is a very tough spot for the Crusaders.  First they are just 2-6 SU on the road in Missouri Valley play with their only 2 wins coming by 3 @ Evansville (last place team) and by 2 @ Illinois State (2nd to last place team).  Secondly they are banged up as the regular season comes to an end.  Their best player and leading scorer and rebounder, Javon Freeman-Liberty (20 PPG & 6 RPG) will almost assuredly be out here as he was just diagnosed with mono and missed Valpo’s home finale on Tuesday.  Also starter Nick Robinson missed the last 2 games and will most likely be out here.  On top of that, starting guard John Kiser is battling an ankle injury missing games on Feb 15th & 19th and is not back to 100%.  Valpo was able to gut it out and get back to back home wins but it’s going to be awfully tough for them in this road game.  ISU is on a nice roll winning 7 of their last 10 games and now sit in 4th place in the MVC with a 10-7 record, tied with Southern Illinois and one game ahead of Valpo.  This is also a double revenge spot for the Sycamores who lost earlier this year @ Valpo and in last year’s MVC tourney ending ISU’s season.  In their game @ Valparaiso back on January 18th, the Crusaders won by 9 but it was much closer than that.  ISU actually led at half and trailed by just 3 with 20 seconds remaining.  Valpo shot 51% and they were +10 made FT’s in the game yet it went to the wire.  On top of that, Valpo’s Freeman-Liberty, who we mentioned earlier and is out here, scored 25 points and had 8 rebounds in that game.  Indiana State is 11-1 at home this year and on Senior Night (3 seniors in their top 6) we like them to play very well and cover this fairly short number.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET

In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game.  From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss.  We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game.  State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11.  Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play.  Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney.  The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%.  He missed the last 2 games due to injury.  Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team.  Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession.  This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less.  This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places.  We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET

Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up.  They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8.  Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before.  The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points.  As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch.  They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season.  The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land.  That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home.  This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT.  Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win.  The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games.  With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season.  They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average).  It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right.  We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road.  We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game.  MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January.  Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here.  The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will.  They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards.  Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line.  That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday.  Lay the number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home.  They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82.  Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season.  The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well.  We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team.  Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win.  One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one.  Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th.  Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here).  Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late.  We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here.  The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points.  Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them.  While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such.  Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree.  Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5.  The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State.  Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game.  A lucky might be an understatement.  MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5.  Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1).  The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them.  OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot.  When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12.  OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3.  They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe.  Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better.  At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s.  Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today.  The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home.  Ohio State is the play.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET

Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels.  However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home.  They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games.  They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou.  A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining.  Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home.  In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG.  All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play.  Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play.  They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road.  Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%.  If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here.  Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games.  We like Ole Miss to win and cover here.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Tulsa -1.5 over SMU, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET

Tulsa has been a very solid home team (5-1 in AAC play) and we’re getting them off an embarrassing performance @ Houston on Wednesday.  It was a revenge game for the Cougars, the best team in the AAC, after losing @ Tulsa earlier this year.  Houston blasted Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday in a game they allowed the Cougars to score 1.21 points per possession while scoring only 0.68 PPG themselves.  It was simply a horrible performance by Tulsa.  The last time they were beaten this badly was in early January when they lost @ Cincinnati by 31 points.  How did the Golden Hurricane respond after that performance?  With a 6 game winning streaking including wins over Houston & Wichita State, the two top rated teams in the AAC.  SMU has struggled on the road in conference play with a 1-5 record.  Their lone win was by 4 @ Memphis, a game they trailed for 95% of, were down by 11 with just 6:00 minutes remaining and took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 1:45 remaining.  The Mustangs defense as a whole has been a problem as they rank 11th in the AAC in defensive efficiency (Tulsa ranks 2nd).  On the road they are allowing 75 PPG.  They just lost @ Tulane, the 2nd lowest ranked team in the league, on Wednesday and allowed the Green Wave to shoot over 50% and put up 80 points.  That was a Tulane team that had lost 9 straight games and ranks 11th in the AAC in offensive efficiency.  So along with our large defensive advantage with Tulsa, we also expect a big discrepancy at the FT line as the Golden Hurricane get to the line more than anyone else in the AAC while SMU shoots fewer FT’s than anyone else in the conference.  Tulsa has already proven they can beat the best teams in the conference at home and SMU falls a notch or two below those teams.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -2.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a monumentally important game for the Boilermakers.  After 3 straight losses, Purdue has now gone from in the Dance to out by most bracket experts.  Many of them in the first 4 out or next 4 out so they are close.  Their power ratings are very strong (anywhere from 15th to 25th) however their current record of 14-13 will keep them out despite their rankings.  With 3 of their final 4 games at home, Purdue needs to make a move and it needs to start today.  While they’ve had a few slip ups at home (vs Big 10 leader Penn State & vs Illinois), they’ve proven they can beat very good teams and beat them bad here at Mackey Arena.  They topped Iowa by 36, Michigan State by 29, Virginia by 29, and Wisconsin by 19 all here at home.  The Boilers have win 41 of their last 45 games at home and we think they catch Michigan in a great spot here.  The Wolverines are coming off a big road win @ Rutgers giving the Scarlet Knights their first home loss of the season.  Rutgers shot just 34%, made only 3 of 18 from three, and made only 5 FT’s and the game still was tight down the stretch.  Michigan has now won 6 of 7 which makes them overvalued here and means this game is MUCH more important for Purdue as the Wolverines are already solid in the NCAA field.  Also, beyond their big win @ Rutgers, their only road wins in Big 10 play were @ Nebraska and @ Northwestern, the 2 worst teams in the league.  They lost their other 4 conference road games.  Purdue has a drastic home/road dichotomy as they average 68 PPG on the season yet at home that jumps up to 78 PPG!  They also shoot 48% at home including 40% from 3-point land.  These two met in January with Michigan winning at home in double OT.  Purdue get that one back here and rolls at home.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +6 over Ball State, Saturday at 1:00 PM Et

We were on EMU earlier this week as a home dog vs Kent State and the Eagles rolled up a huge 70-49 win.  Eastern is peaking right now winning 5 of their last 6 after starting the conference season at 0-7.  Even during their 7 game losing streak to start the season we were seeing signs that this team was better than their record at 5 of those 7 losses came by 6 points or less.  They weren’t far away from turning the corner and they now officially have done just that.  Their only loss this month came @ Akron, who is the best team in the MAC, but just 1 point.  EMU has a very good defensive team (30th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they’ve held teams to an average of just 58 PPG during this 6 game run.  They should continue to have success defensively here vs a Ball State team that has topped 70 points only 3 times in their 13 MAC contests.  Ball State is heading in the opposite direction after winning 4 of 5 to start the MAC season, they have since lost 5 of their last 8.  The stats are in line with which direction these teams are currently headed.  Over the last 5 games, EMU is outscoring their opponents 67 PPG to 58 PPG shooting 49% while limiting their opponents to 38% from the field.  The last 5 games for Ball State have resulted in a scoring average of just 64 PPG while allowing 66 PPG with the Cards shooting 38% while allowing 42%.  And those numbers include 3 of the same opponents (Buffalo, Western Michigan, & Kent State).  Getting 6 points here is a great value with a surging EMU team.  We think they have a great shot to win the game, but if not, it should be close and low scoring (total is just 120) making the points very valuable.  EMU has covered 6 straight and they make it 7 in a row here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET

ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble.  Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State.  They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years.  They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin.  The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games.  He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard.  Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January.  The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play.  They are now 9-4.  Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12.  Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe.  The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record.  Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5.  So even their wins have come down to the wire.  The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14.  Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.    

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Minnesota -6 over Indiana, Wed at 9 PM ET

Huge game for both teams but we fully trust Minnesota will show up and play as if it is a must win game and we’re not so sure about Indiana.  The Gophers played very well on Sunday vs Iowa leading for most of the game until a late offensive drought sent them to a 58-55 loss.  They led Iowa by 8 points with 5:00 minutes remaining and were outscored 11-0 from that point on.  On the other hand, Indiana was in a must win on Sunday as well and they didn’t show up at all.  Michigan blitzed the Hoosiers 89-65 and we’re hearing there are some internal problems with the IU team.  They play 3 of their next 4 on the road and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they completely take themselves out of NCAA contention during this stretch.  They’ve been horrible on the road which isn’t a surprise.  They are a young team and didn’t play a single true road game in the non-conference to prepare them for what they might see on the road in the Big 10.  IU is just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) on the road in conference play averaging just 61 PPG while allowing 74 PPG.  Their only road win came @ Nebraska, the lowest ranked team in the conference, and they’ve won just 7 of their last 30 road games.  They have lost by at least 9 points in each of their 5 road setbacks.  The Gophers have some solid home wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State and we see no reason they don’t roll over Indiana here. With both of these teams on the bubble, this might be the game that gets one of them in and leaves one of them out.  We trust Minnesota to get it done at home on Wednesday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Michigan, Wed at 7 PM ET

Rutgers has been a fabulous home team this year and we expect that to continue tonight.  They are a perfect 17-0 at the RAC this season (12-4 ATS) winning by an average score of 73-57.  With 3 of their final 4 games on the road where they are 1-6 SU on the season, this becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes.  Michigan has been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 6, however their only 2 road games during that stretch were @ Northwestern and @ Nebraska, the 2 worst teams in the conference.  Beyond those 2 road wins, the Wolverines have lost all 4 of their other conference roadies @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, and @ Illinois.  They also could be without starter Isaiah Livers here as he was injured in their Sunday win at home over Indiana.  That would be a huge loss as he just came back from injury on February 8th after missing 8 games.  Michigan was just 3-5 SU in the conference games Livers missed.  These 2 met on February 1st on a neutral site (NYC) with Michigan winning a tight game 69-63.  However, a close look at the numbers indicate that despite shooting poorly, Rutgers was right in the game to the end.  The Knights hit only 33% of their shots, made just 25% of their 3-pointers and made only 3 FT’s.  Michigan, on the other hand, shot 47% overall and from three along with making 16 FT’s yet the game came to the wire.  That’s because Rutgers dominated the boards with 51 rebounds including gathering nearly 50% of their misses (offensive rebounds).  We expect them to control the glass again here at home and we have no doubt they’ll shoot much better.  That should lead to another home win for Rutgers who continues to be undervalued (11-4 ATS in their Big 10 games).  We simply need the Scarlet Knights to win this one at home and we like them to move to 18-0 at the RAC.  Take Rutgers.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON East Tennessee State -5.5 over Furman, Wed at 7 PM ET

The winner of this game walks away in 1st place in the Southern Conference as both teams enter with a 12-2 record.  The top 3 teams in this league by a wide margin are ETSU, Furman, and UNC Greensboro.  So we like to take a look at how these two teams fared vs UCNG this season.  ETSU beat UNCG by 7 on the road and by 17 at home.  Furman has faced Greensboro just once this season losing by 13 at home.  Furman has a very solid 9-4 road record, however not one of those wins has come against a team ranked inside the top 150 (ETSU is ranked 56th) and 6 of those 9 road teams have come against teams ranked 225th or lower.  East Tennessee State is 14-1 SU at home this year and they have won 38 of their last 46 home games. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 20 points and this is a program that has won at least 24 points in 4 straight seasons and they are 23-4 this year including an 11-point win @ LSU who is currently tied for 2nd place in the SEC with Auburn.  The Buccaneers played a poor game over the weekend struggling to beat a bad VMI team on the road in what was an obviously look ahead spot.  They picked up the win in the end and played without one of the top players in the Southern Conference, Bo Hodges, but he is back and ready to go here.  These two met @ Furman earlier this year with the host winning by 9.  Furman shot significantly better than ETSU in that game and also made 7 more FT’s.  That continued a recent trend of the host winning easily in this series with each of the last 4 meetings being decided by at least 9 points with the home team coming out on top in each.  The last 2 meetings here saw the Buccaneers win by 23 and 11 points.  We have ETSU ranked a full 25 spots ahead of Furman and with revenge, a home game, and 1st place on the line we think they cover this number.     

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58.  It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100.  They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point.  Kent is on the opposite track.  After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games.  They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright!  EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC).  While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run.  During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots.  This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home.  Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET

The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game.  Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game.  They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State.  Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well.  In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road.  They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win.  They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak.  Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road.  They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern.  They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later.  Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points.  They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league.  The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here.  Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here.  The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row.  The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON DePaul +9 over Creighton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET

We like the value and the situation with DePaul  in this game.  These two met just a few weeks ago @ DePaul and the Blue Demons were actually favored by 2 in that game.  That tells us they should be +6 or +7 here so we’re getting some value on the Demons.  Creighton won that game in DePaul making 10 three pointers (DePaul was just 3 of 17 from deep) and 23 FT’s (DePaul made 17).  The Blue Demons won the battle on the boards and pulled down a solid 34% of their missed shots with offensive rebounds.  That won’t change here as the Blue Demons are solid on the glass while the Blue Jays are a very poor rebounding team.  The Blue Demons also played that game without one of their top players (Jaylen Butz) and he is back at full strength for this one.  DePaul is also very good defensively which is one thing we like to see in a hefty underdog.  They rank 49th nationally in defensive efficiency and 65th in eFG% defense, both much better than Creighton.  While the Jays have the edge offensively, we think DePaul can keep this close as they seemingly always do.  They are 7-3 ATS this year as an underdog and despite their very misleading 1-10 Big East record, the Demons have played tight on the road vs Villanova (lost in OT), Marquette (lost by 3), Seton Hall (lost by 7), Georgetown (lost by 4), and @ St Johns (lost by 7).  Thus, they have not lost a single conference road game by more than 7 and have had opportunities to knock off many of the best teams in the conference away from home.  They catch Creighton coming off a monumental road win @ Seton Hall on Wednesday.  The Jays gave the Pirates just their 2nd Big East loss this season.  Creighton also has a huge game on deck with Marquette.  Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays go through the motions here vs a team they’ve already beaten.  That would be a mistake because DePaul has had a full week off to prepare and they’ve been a very tough out in conference play.  Take the hefty points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET

This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion.  The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win.  Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th.  Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record.  Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well.  The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night.  Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas.  The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year).  It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game.  Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting.  This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year.  They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road.  They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference.  Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road.  They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots.  That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense.  This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well.  They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team.  Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league.  The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12).  However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally).  Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards.  Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season.  We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance.  This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned).  Double digit win here for Baylor.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Notre Dame +12.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Way too many points here in our opinion for a Duke team that is overvalued vs a Notre Dame team that is undervalued.  The Irish are 15-9 SU but a very solid 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog in ACC play.  Their conference losses have come by margins of 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 11 points.  The 11 point loss was in the season opener @ UNC way back on November 6th.  They already have 3 road wins in ACC play @ Syracuse, @ Clemson, and @ Georgia Tech.  They are catching Duke in an ideal spot for a letdown as the Devils are off an OT road win @ arch rival UNC and a 5-point home win over FSU who sits just 1 game below Duke in the ACC standings.  The Devils also have a big game on deck with in-state rival NC State.  While Duke is 11-2 in conference play, they have been far from dominant with 7 of their 11 wins coming by fewer than 12 points (which is tonight’s spread vs Notre Dame).  Three of those four wins have come vs Miami (twice) and BC, the 2 worst teams in the ACC.  Duke has actually already lost 2 home games this year vs Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  They are also just 5-7 ATS as a favorite in ACC play.  Notre Dame is playing very well right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming in OT @ Virginia.  They are a veteran team with 4 seniors in the starting line up that hasn’t been fazed by road games.  They have an efficient offense ranking 3rd in the ACC in offensive efficiency so they definitely shoot well enough to hang with Duke.  They have taken the two other highly rated teams in the ACC (Louisville and FSU) to the wire in their meeting this year and we don’t see Duke pulling away here.  We like the Irish to give Duke a run here in Durham with Duke winning but by single digits.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Richmond -1.5 over VCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET

Revenger for Richmond from just a few weeks ago when they were embarrassed @ VCU 87-68.  The Rams shot 50% for the game and nearly 50% from beyond the arc in that win.  Richmond, 18-6 on the season, simply played a poor game and did so without starting forward Blake Francis on the floor as he recently missed 6 games due to an injury including their loss @ VCU.  Francis is now back on the court and has really given the Spiders a lift in his 2 games since returning with 32 points, both road wins vs Fordham and LaSalle.  Remember this is a big rivalry game with both teams located in Richmond, Virginia so you can bet the Spiders have been waiting for this one.  VCU is trending downward losing 2 of their last 3 including a 5 point home loss on Wednesday to George Mason as a 14 point favorite.  Starting guard Marcus Evans injured his knee in the game and may not play here.  If so, he might be on a limited minutes restriction.  Richmond has better efficiency numbers in conference play both offensively and defensively.  They also are very good at taking care of the ball (15% turnover rated good for 13th nationally) which will counteract what VCU does best and that is create turnovers.  Because the Rams like to play aggressive defense with pressure, they in turn commit a lot of fouls.  In fact, they foul more than any other team in the Atlantic 10 conference.  That plays right into Richmond’s game as they shoot 78% from the line on the year which is the 9th best mark in the country.  We like this match up for Richmond and now that they are back to full strength we’ll lay the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense.  They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points.  UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points.  They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks.  On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington.  That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300.  Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference.  They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games.  UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT.  That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season.  Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA.  The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

#644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season.  After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11.  Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one.  That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer.  After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter.  He is back and ready to go tonight.  Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road.  Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss.  Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock.  The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here.  In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy).  The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team.  They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt.  The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference.  These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR.  Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home.  In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire.  Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season.  We like Texas State to roll in this game.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

These 2 are trending in opposite directions.  After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points.  Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month.  Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton.  That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8.  Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep.  They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less.  Butler’s defense is headed south.  For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP.  However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference.  For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play.  The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG.  In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential.  This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points.  Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win.  Take the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year.  Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results.  We’ve reached that point tonight.  UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season.  In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP.  It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high.  Even with that they had a shot to win.  That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense.  It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight.  Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games).  On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend.  The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league.  Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one.  With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET

#602 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5 over Penn State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Penn State is on a very solid 6-0 run but we feel this is the spot where it comes to an end.  They are playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and they might be without one of their top players.  2nd leading scorer Myreon Jones (14 PPG) missed Saturday’s 83-77 home win over Minnesota due to an illness.  His status is up in the air for Tuesday’s game @ Purdue.  If you’re going to beat the Boilers on their home court you need to be at full strength and be at the top of your game.  Purdue has absolutely destroyed a number of very good teams at home this year.  They topped Virginia by 29, Michigan State by 29, Iowa by 36, and Wisconsin by 19.  The Boilers offensive numbers at home have been great averaging 78 PPG on 48% shooting and nearly 42% from beyond the arc.  They should be able to take advantage of a PSU defense that allowed 74 PPG on the road and ranks 9th in the Big 10 (conference games) at defending the arc.  Defensively at home Purdue has held all but one opponent under 70 points (in regulation) in Big 10 play including limiting 3 of those conference opponents to 51 points or less.  They are just a completely different team at home.  They have struggled for much of the year on the road but we really like the fact they won by 12 @ Indiana over the weekend which tells us they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  This PSU team is solid but they are a bit overvalued due to their 6 game run.  They are a poor rebounding team which doesn’t bode well vs PU, the #1 offensive rebounding team in the conference.  Purdue is 9-3 ATS this year as a home favorite and they’ve won 15 straight here vs Penn State.  Take the Boilers at home in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET

We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright.  Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play.  FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5.  The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less.  They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that.  Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC.  The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining.  They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season.  Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight.  The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville.  Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category.  We like this match up for the FSU defense.  They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league).  That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep).  FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC.  Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot.  This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team.  While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win.  Take the points as this one goes to the wire.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win.  The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board.  The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24.  While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7).  The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team.  That is not the case.  After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field.  UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island).  They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss.  Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play.  They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home.  They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road.  UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.    

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Indiana -1.5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2 PM ET

This is a huge game and nearly a must win for IU’s NCAA tourney chances.  They are coming off 3 straight losses and now sit at 15-7 overall / 5-6 in conference play.  Right now they sit on the bubble and they’ve struggled on the road so home wins are a must.  Their 3 losses entering Saturday came by 1-point at home vs Maryland (IU blew a 6 point lead in the final minute of play), along with road losses @ Penn State and @ Ohio State.  The Boilers are off an impressive 104-68 win at home over Iowa.  Purdue at home isn’t the same as Purdue on the road.  At home they’ve destroyed some very good competition including Michigan State (by 29), Iowa (by 36), Wisconsin (by 19), and Virginia (by 29).  On the road the Boilermakers are just 2-6 SU with their lone wins coming @ Ohio (10th rated team in the MAC) and @ Northwestern by 3 (one of the two worst teams in the Big 10).  They have averaged just 58 PPG on the road while making only 36% of their shots and 26% from 3.  That’s going to be a problem vs an Indiana team that is much more potent at home averaging 80 PPG on 48% shooting.  Purdue shot so far above their season averages in their win over Iowa on Wednesday (63% from the field / 56% from 3) and averaged a ridiculous 1.53 points per possession, a season high.  They come back to earth on Saturday on the road where they are a completely different team.  While PU was playing on Wednesday, Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this rivalry game.  IU has some extra motivation as well as they’ve lost 5 straight to their in-state rival.  We fully expect Indiana to win this game.  We also love the fact that if NDSU leads late and needs to make FT’s, they rank #1 nationally hitting 82% from the line. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit.  The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game.  They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games.  They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66.  Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit.  Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin.  They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU.  These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses.  NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson.  The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings.  ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG.  Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %.  North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense.  ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9.  The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Oklahoma +3.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Just a huge home game for OU and their NCAA tourney hopes.  They are 14-8 on the season and 4-5 in Big 12 play.  They have 8 wins over top 100 teams and this one would be their biggest of the season.  The Sooners are 9-1 at home this year with their only loss coming vs Kansas.  WVU is 18-4 on the season but all 4 of their losses have come on the road.  In Big 12 play they are 1-3 SU on the road with their only road won in conference play coming @ Oklahoma State who is 1-8 in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite and Oklahoma matches up really well with the Mountaineers.  WVU thrives on offensive rebounding and creating turnovers.  They are not a great shooting team especially from 3 where the hit only 30% ranking 312th nationally and they make only 62% of their FT’s.  The problem for West Virginia in this game is that OU is a very good defensive rebounding team (1st in the Big 12) which will neutralize WVU’s offense rebounding strength.  The Sooners also protect the ball very well (1st in the Big 12 in offensive turnover %) which takes away WVU’s advantage creating turnovers.  Just last year OU was favored by 10.5 points vs WVU here at home (OU won by 12) and now they are getting 3 points.  Too much of an adjustment here as we like Oklahoma to win this game outright.         

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET

These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference.  As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss.  There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point.  We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that.  Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland.  The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one.  Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58.  To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement.  In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch.  Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak.  Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season.  Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game.  Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games.  On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots.  Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games.  Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET

App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading.  They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players.  6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses).  Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned).  One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.   UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining.  That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned.  Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well.  They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field.  UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks.  Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt.  Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.   Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned.  We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games.  Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers.  Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers.  Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em.  We’ll take App State to win this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET

We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota.  The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch.  They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot.  The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension.  Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win.  Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough.  They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games.  They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road.  Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games.  While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game.  We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone.  After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points.  After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland.  All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road.  At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points.  MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime.  They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss.  We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins.  It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday.  PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7.  Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game.  The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game.  That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home.  Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU.  The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year.  The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points.  This is a small number to lay in this situation.  MSU by double digits.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog.  The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14).  BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th.  The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable.  This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well.  The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining.  On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night.  BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9).  With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco.  We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home.  St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far.  In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time).  BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %.  Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep.  They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits.  St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge.  Cougars cover easily here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET

We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach).  They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime.  Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon.  This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction.  They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon.  They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon.  Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play.  Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference.  Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate.  These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win.  The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%.  Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season.  With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET

Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal.  Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak.  Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern.  They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight.  The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers.  The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss.  Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned.  They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions.  Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking.  The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend.  Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa.  Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season.  The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts.  And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins.  Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later.  Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests.  They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points.  Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points.  Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight.  Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight.  Lay it with Maryland.  

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Penn State -5.5 over Indiana, Wed at 8 PM ET

This is a really tough spot for IU coming off a 1-point home loss vs Maryland on Sunday.  The Hoosiers led that game by 7 with 2:30 remaining and still held a 6 point lead with just over 1:00 left.  Maryland scored the final 7 points of the game to pull out a 77-76 that was marred by a near brawl after the game ended.  IU shot 52% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc and STILL lost the game at home.  Now just a few days later they have to go on the road and face a team that is playing at a high level right now and PSU has had a full week off leading into this game.  Penn State won @ Michigan by 9 last Wednesday and that was after beating Ohio State by 14 the previous weekend.  IU has had some solid performances at home, however on the road they’ve won a grand total of 1 game this year and that was @ Nebraska who is the lowest rated team in the Big 10.  Their 3 true road losses have come by margins of 20 (@ Wisconsin), 16 (@ Maryland), and 9 (@ Rutgers).  Penn State is 4-4 in league play and they have played the toughest schedule so far in the conference already having faced Michigan, Ohio State (twice), Iowa, Maryland, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Minnesota.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are 5-4 but have played one of the easiest schedules in the Big 10 having already faced both Nebraska & Northwestern, by far the two worst teams in the conference.  As we said the Nittany Lions are rested (week off) and they know this is a huge home game for them with 3 of their next 4 on the road.  They are 10-1 at home this season averaging 80 PPG while IU puts up just 63 PPG on the road.  Penn State also comes in with a little extra motivation after losing by 2 here vs Indiana last year.  PSU shot just 37% for the game, 24% from 3, and made only 11 of their 26 FT’s and still had an opportunity to win that game.  Bad spot for Indiana here and we like Penn State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Carolina +7 over Arkansas, Wed at 8:30 PM ET

South Carolina has been very successful on the road this year with a 4-2 SU mark including wins @ Virginia, @ Clemson, and @ Texas A&M.  Their two losses on the road came @ Tennessee by 1 point and @ Auburn by 13 last Wednesday.  That game had the Gamecocks walking into a hornet’s next as Auburn, who started the season 15-0, coming in off back to back embarrassing road efforts losing by double digits at Alabama and at Florida.  It was a tough spot for South Carolina to be stepping into and Auburn played great off those 2 losses.  Both these teams are 3-3 in the SEC, however Arkansas has played the easier slate already facing Vandy, Ole Miss, and A&M the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference.  The Razors may also be without the SEC’s 6th leading scorer tonight as Isaiah Joe (17 PPG) deals with a knee injury.  The thing with South Carolina is we’re getting value because they play just as well on the road as they do at home yet the number needs to be set with home court advantage or road court disadvantage in mind.  There isn’t any.  The Gamecocks average and allow the same PPG both at home and on the road.  They actually shoot better on the road hitting 47% from the field and 36% from deep.  They should dominate the boards here as well as they are one of the better rebounding teams in the SEC while Arkansas is one of the worst.  We give South Carolina a solid shot to win this game and even if they lose, we have a nice cushion and expect a close one.  Take the points.      

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET

Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league.  Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference.  They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation.  Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road!  Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5.  On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road.  At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota.  Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games.  This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG.  We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend.  South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits.  SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points.  On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record.  Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league.  Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team.  ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight.  So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA).  Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road.  This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET

Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams.  In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12).  Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road.  At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG.  Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%.  Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time.  The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up.  Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s.  Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters.  Line value is with Siena here.  Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT.  Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON UConn -5 over Tulsa, Sunday at 12 PM ET

UConn steps into this game with a 1-4 record in AAC play while Tulsa is 5-1 yet the Huskies are favored.  Despite winning just 1 of their last 6 games, the Huskies are actually playing quite well.  Over their last 4 games UConn has beaten Tulane, lost in OT to Wichita State (2nd rated team in the AAC), lost by 6 @ Villanova (one of the top teams in the Big East) and lost by 4 @ Houston (top rated team in the AAC).  They have been right there with a chance to win facing some of the top teams in the country.  UConn has played the toughest conference schedule thus far having already faced the top 3 teams in the AAC in their 5 conference games thus far.  Tulsa only has one AAC loss (by 31 points @ Cincinnati) but they’ve played a very easy conference slate.  They have 2 conference road wins however those were against the two lowest rated teams in the league.  Prior to that the Golden Hurricanes were just 1-4 on the road this season.  Tulsa has won 4 in a row and they are coming off a monumental home win vs Memphis winning 80-40!  Back to reality here in a huge letdown spot as they head on the road to UConn where they are 1-3 SU lifetime with their only win coming by 2 points in a game the Huskies led by 9 at half and missed a layup as time expired that would have sent the game to OT.  This is a much bigger game for UConn and we really like they way they are playing now despite their record.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET

We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars.  We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State.  Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday.  These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2.  Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year.  They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league.  Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games.  One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch.  Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here.  Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team.  Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today.  Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.          

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET

Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road.  That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season.  Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points.  We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points.  It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck.  UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win.  It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year.  ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight.  Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak.  ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win.  They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006.  There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored.  Take Illinois State.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Providence +2.5 over Villanova, Saturday at 1PM ET

We went against this Nova team a few nights ago when they played host to Butler and we lost.  However, leading into that game, we faded the Cats twice and won each time.  We think this is a great spot to jump on Providence at home.  The Friars had won 5 of 6 heading into last Saturday including wins @ Marquette and @ DePaul along with a 16 point home win vs Georgetown.  That run ended as they played 2 very tough road games @ Creighton and @ Seton Hall losing both by 4 and 9 points respectively. In their most recent loss @ Seton Hall, the top team in the Big East, Providence shot just 36% while the Hall lit the nets at 58% but it was still just a 5 point game with under 2:00 minutes remaining. This becomes a huge home game for the NCAA hopes with 3 of their next 4 games on the road.  Villanova is on an impressive 5 game winning streak but keep in mind their last 4 games have all been at home.  In fact, the Wildcats have played a grand total of 18 games this year and only 4 have been true road games and one of those was @ St Joes which is only a few miles from the Nova campus.  They are 2-2 on the road with wins @ St Joes (ranked 244th nationally) and a come from behind tight win @ Creighton in a game they never led until 3:30 remaining.  Their other 2 road games were double digit losses @ Ohio State and @ Marquette.  As a road favorite they’ve been terrible going 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 in that role.  We think this young Villanova team (5 underclassmen in top 7) will struggle on the road at times this year and this is one spot that fits the bill.  Providence is backed into a corner so to speak and the Wildcats haven’t been on the road since early January.  Nova is ranked 9th in the nation (overrated in our opinion) and yet they are laying only 2 points here.  With that being said, most are predictably jumping on the Wildcats with 78% of the tickets, however the line opened -2 and hasn’t budged. We smell an upset here.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET

We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time.  South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84.  As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one.  During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year.  They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit).  We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards.  Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.   They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points.  They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%.  On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense.  That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country.  The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally).  They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc.  The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset.  The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers.  He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined.  On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season.  IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit.  We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET

This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10.  The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings.  Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc.  The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7.  The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins.  They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday.  Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota.  The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG.  This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play.  As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games.  They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG.  Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here.  Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play.  Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line.  Take Michigan. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation.  The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68.  At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54.  They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league.  This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose.  Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th.  That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42.  They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc.  Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago.  They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%).  The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight.  After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4.  Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014.  We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after.  We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent.  Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points.  We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover.  Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  More of the same on Tuesday.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET

ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA.  They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race.  One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th.  It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s).  Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not.  ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season.  They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola.  This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons.  They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS).  The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th.  Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday.  Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings.  Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit.  We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them.  They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit.  Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road).  They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league.  We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018.  The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3.  Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night.  State is also one of the favorites to win the conference.  The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard).  Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup.  They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG.  South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home).  Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV.  While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON South Alabama -1 over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 4 PM ET

South Alabama was favored here on Thursday night by 2 points over the top rated team in the Sun Belt, Georgia State, and lost by 9.  The Jags actually shot better from the field (46% to 40%) but made only 2 three pointers compared to 15 for Georgia State.  South Alabama also only made 15 of their 24 FT’s (62%) and that from a team that shoots 75% from the line on the season.  Even with that they led by 6 with 12:00 minutes remaining and it was a 3 point game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining.  And remember that was vs the top team in the Sun Belt.  Now they face a Georgia Southern team that power rates as the 3rd best team in the conference yet the spread is basically the same.  Prior to that loss the Jaguars had won 3 straight including road wins at Texas Arlington (2nd rated team in the league) and at Little Rock (currently tied for 1st place).  They catch Georgia Southern playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and coming off a win @ Troy.  GSU has now won 3 straight but they were against the 3 lowest rated teams in the Sun Belt (UL Monroe, Troy, and UL Lafayette).  Even with their win @ Troy, the Eagles are still only 3-6 on the road this season with a defense allowing 73 PPG and nearly 47% away from home.  The home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series with the only outlier coming last year when Georgia Southern topped the Jaguars here in OT giving the host a bit of extra incentive in this match up.     

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Great spot for the Terps here.  They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin.  Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week.  Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State.  They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good.  Not so much on the road.  Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road.  In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc.  To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories.  Not good to say the least.  Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG.  All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points.  The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game.  Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year.  Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56.  At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2.  The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season.  Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team.  The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska).  Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year.  Lay the small number.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON NC State -6.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 2 PM ET

Revenge is often an overused handicapping tool but there are absolutely some situations where we feel it plays a factor.  Quick revenge, as we call it, is one of those.  That’s what we have here as these teams just met 2 weeks ago today in Clemson and the Tigers pulled out an 81-70 win as a 1-point home favorite.  In that game the Wolfpack only made 5 of 21 from beyond the arc (23%) which was 10 percentage points down from their season average (33%) and the Tigers went to the line more often and made 13 more FT’s which turned out to be the difference.  Despite that NC State was down just 3 with 5:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Now they get Clemson in Raleigh and they have some momentum coming off an easy 80-63 win here over a good Miami FL team on Wednesday.  Not only that, one of their top players, CJ Bryce, was back in the line up after missing 4 consecutive games due to an injury.  Bryce did not play in their loss @ Clemson.  Speaking of the Tigers, we feel this is a fantastic spot to fade this team.  They are coming off 2 monumental wins beating UNC on the road last weekend after losing 59 STRAIGHT times @ North Carolina.  They followed that up with a court storming home win on Tuesday vs Duke.  Before beating the Tar Heels last weekend, Clemson had played 2 true road games this year losing by 18 @ Minnesota and by 19 @ Florida State.  Their home win vs Duke was impressive however their win @ UNC was nothing special as the Heels have already lost to the likes of Wofford, Pitt, and Georgia Tech at the Dean Dome this season.  The Wolfpack have won 10 in a road at home and 28 of their last 33 games here at PNC Arena.  Finally back at full strength and with revenge on their minds, we like NC State to win and cover this one.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas A&M -1.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET

A&M is flying under the radar right now because of their poor start to the season.  They were just 3-5 in the first 8 games and 4 of those losses came at the hands of top 100 teams.  Factor in the Aggies were still learning new head coach Buzz Williams new system and a poor start wasn’t all that surprising.  However, they have played very well as of late winning 5 of their last 7 with their only losses coming @ Arkansas and at home in OT vs LSU on Tuesday, a game they led by 6 with less than 2:00 remaining in the game.  That was the Aggies only loss at home this year (7-1 at home) and we expect them to come back and play with some fire today.  The oddsmakers continue to try and catch up with this team as they have covered 5 of their last 6 by a combined 57 points (+9.7 PPG vs the spread their last 6).  They catch South Carolina in an obvious letdown spot as the Gamecocks upset Kentucky on Wednesday night.  It was a game that UK led by 14 in the 2nd half and South Carolina had to battle back for the 3 point win.  Prior to that the Gamecocks had lost 3 straight games including a home game vs Stetson.  They are a poor shooting team (28% from 3) and make only 60% of their FT’s.  They are facing an A&M defense that is very good ranking 16th nationally allowing opponents just 36% and 23rd nationally at defending the arc allowing 28%.  They have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 60 points or less.  This is also a game that A&M has had circled since last season when they played one of their worst games of the season at home vs South Carolina losing 71-54 as a 4-point favorite.  South Carolina is a young team with 7 underclassmen in their top 8 and we think they have trouble responding on the road off such a huge home win.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET

Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  They are better than their record and playing very well right now.  After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT.  Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win.  Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena.  Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week.  Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0.  However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock.  Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina.  Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned).  The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT.  This line is too high.  Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally).  Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half.  Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close.  Take the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Alabama +2.5 over Auburn, Wed at 9 PM ET

We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this overrated, undefeated Auburn team and we’ve had our eye on this spot @ Alabama.  We really like the Tide to come up big at home and win this game outright.  Bama is trending upward right now but they are just 1-2 in SEC play making this a very important game for them.  Their 2 conference losses have both come on the road vs two of the better teams in the league.  They lost in OT @ Florida and lost @ Kentucky on Saturday.  At home it’s been a different story for the Crimson Tide as they’ve already faced 4 top 100 teams at Coleman Coliseum and handled all of them easily, including their lone SEC win over Mississippi State 90-69.  Auburn is 3-0 in league play but they’ve faced the easiest conference schedule thus far and Alabama will be the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have played all season.  The only other team they faced ranked inside the top 60 was NC State ranked 50th (Bama is 53rd) and Auburn played host to the Wolfpack and squeaked by with a 6 point win in a game they never led by more than 10.  These two teams have faced 3 common opponents this season with similar results with a slight edge actually to Bama.  The Tide beat Furman by 8, Auburn beat Furman by 3 in OT.  The Tide beat Miss St by 21, Auburn beat Miss St by 12.  The Tide beat Richmond by 12, Auburn beat them by 14.  While comparing results of common opponents doesn’t always tell the whole story, it does give us a solid comparison.  In our opinion and based on our power ratings, Alabama is undervalued right now and Auburn is overvalued.  Take the Tide to win this game outright as Auburn falls from the ranks of the unbeaten.   

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Marquette -3 over Xavier, Wed at 8 PM ET

We were on Marquette in a similar situation for our first top game of the season.  The Golden Eagles were coming off a bad loss @ Creighton and needed a win at home vs Villanova to avoid dropping to 0-2 in Big East play.  They rolled up a 71-60 win and cover in that game.  Now Marquette is off a tough OT loss to a surging Providence team and a 69-55 @ Seton Hall, the top rated team in the Big East, over the weekend.  This situation with Marquette at 1-3 in league play is even more desperate then when they face Nova a week and a half ago.  Xavier is in a similar spot at 1-3 in conference play but they are absolutely trending down over the last month or so.  They have played 3 of their 4 conference games at home yet still have only one 1 Big East game.  After starting the season 9-1 SU the Musketeers are just 3-4 their last 7 games.  They are coming off 2 straight double digit home losses which tells us they are full blown struggle mode.  The Golden Eagles step into this game as the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the nation at 40% and with Xavier hitting only 29% of their 3’s on the season (301st nationally) we are not sure they’ll have enough to make up that deficit from deep.  The Golden Eagles won here at Fiserv Forum by 18 points last year vs Xavier and they have won 24 of their 28 games here since the building opened at the beginning of last season.  We’ll have the best player on the court (Markus Howard) and it this spot we really like Marquette here. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week

This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion.  The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6.  That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining.  Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home.  They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana.  They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th).  They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East.  The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field.  Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record.  They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile.  We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th.  The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score.  Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home.  They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland.  The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned.  This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons.  We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32.  To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002.  They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons.  Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8.  Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament.  The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10.  The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road.  In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home.  We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One

We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.   Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade.  Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak.  They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home.  The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned.  Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.   Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend.  Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago.  They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players.  Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season.  They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th.  DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation.  The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul.  Villanova is good, not great.  Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here.  It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love this spot for the Gophers at home.  They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams.  Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT.  Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night.  The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half.  Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10.  At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9.  The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday.  They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup.  In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes.  It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game!  Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough.  As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points.  Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan.  With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc.  Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2.  So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record?  While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record.  Take the Gophers.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET

GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that.  They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State.  In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead.  GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams.  They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4.  As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country.  They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season.  Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far.  They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record.  The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game).  Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG.  Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game.  The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation).  Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well.  They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG.  That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State.  That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG.  GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET

This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON California -1.5 over Washington State, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET

Cal has lost 8 of their last 10 yet they are the favorite here vs Washington State for good reason.  The Bears have played a very tough schedule to date (59th rated SOS) and 5 of their last 10 games have come against teams rated inside the top 100 and 9 of those 10 were vs opponents ranked in the top 140.  Compare that with Washington State who has played the 329th toughest schedule in the nation not playing a team ranked in the top 75 all season and facing 5 opponents ranked below 300.  The Cougars have won 7 of their last 8 yet come in as an underdog vs a Cal team that has just 6 wins on the season.  Wazzou has played 7 straight home games and they haven’t played a road game since December 4th.  They are 1-1 in true road games this year beating a bad Idaho team (ranked 318th) and losing by 8 @ Santa Clara.  Historically the Cougs have been a terrible road team winning just 6 times in their last 42 true road games.  Despite playing the vast majority of their games at home Wazzou has shot the ball very poorly all year making only 39% of their attempts (319th nationally) and just 29% of their 3 point attempts (312th nationally).  In their road games they’ve been even worst making 37% of their attempts and only 23% from deep.  The Bears are 6-2 at home this year with their only losses coming to St Mary’s & Harvard, both top 95 teams.  They are solid defensively allowing 41.5% which will be a problem for a bad shooting WSU team.  Cal will be jacked for this game as they know it’s a potential win.  It’s the only game we have them favored in the rest of the season.  We like the Bears to win this one at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET

We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season.  They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor.  After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games.  In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson.  Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor).  Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th).  Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court.  The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment.  The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena.  They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation).  They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers.  The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation.  Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14.  This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. 

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 8 PM ET

This is almost a must win for Texas State who steps into this game with just a 1-4 record in Sun Belt.  That record is very misleading as they’ve played 4 of their first 5 conference away from home.  They’ve also played a very tough conference slate thus far already facing Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas Little Rock, 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, all on the road.  Coastal Carolina (3-2 in league play), on the other hand, has played the 4th easiest conference slate with 3 of their first 5 games at home.  The Chanticleers are coming off a blowout home win over the 2nd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt (Louisiana Monroe) and now must go on the road for the first time since December 21st.  Texas State will be extra motivated here off a home loss to Troy as a 10 point favorite.  It was their first game home after a 4 game road trip and they had only one day off to get ready after playing on the road on Jan 4th and then at home on Jan 6th.  The Bobcats played their worst game of the year in that one and we expect a bounce back effort here.  It was their only home loss of the season as they are now 5-1.  State was one of the favorites in the Sun Belt entering the season and they are undervalued now at 1-4.  They have handled Coastal Carolina in 5 of the last 6 meetings and in a must win spot at home we’ll call for the cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion.  Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova.  They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread.  KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength.  This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons.  However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past.  We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game.  We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak.  This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams.  They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time.  Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons.  Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th).  The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation.  Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th).  Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight.  KU with the win and cover.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU

TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home.  This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November.  They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games.  KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home.  All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition.  The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th.  Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half.  TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well.  Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%.  TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation.  That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task.  This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday.  They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.        

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET

UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games.  They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here.  First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point.  This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip.  Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss).  The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6.  They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1.  All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200.  The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th.  South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington.  They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference.  This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span.  Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category.  The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win.  UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up.  Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.   Texas Arlington is the side tonight. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored?  Looks too easy to take SDSU.  We like Utah State here.  The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference.  They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team.  They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances.  Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up.  The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point.  These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54.  The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here.  SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month.  Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue.  He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding.  Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game.  With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year.  It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West.  It will matter here.  We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not.  They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%).  The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot.  That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops).  We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET

These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal.  Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115.  Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court.  This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season.  The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins.  St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road.  Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings.  STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL.  This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues.  Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season.  So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight.  These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home.  One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess.  In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds!  They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again.  St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%.  We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.    

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET

We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier.  Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships.  They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor.  They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins.  They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players).  How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas?  This might be a tough game for them.  Xavier is very good this year.  They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio.  Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2).  They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago.  The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games.  Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games.  Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT.  One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney.  That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4.  This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back.  We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game.  Take the points. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET

Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today.  While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother.  Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120.  However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category.  The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings.  They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100.  The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings).  The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion.  Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer.  We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET

We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here.  C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points.

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season.  The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak.  They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm.  There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season.  That would be a mistake.  ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen.  The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year.  Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most.  In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41.  They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining.  They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games.  LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams.  They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU.  Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle.  This game should be tight and we take the points.

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Buffalo -8 over Canisius, Wed at 7 PM ET

Even though these two teams reside in different conferences it’s still a great Buffalo city rivalry as the two schools are separated by just 7 miles. Buffalo has one key advantage in this matchup and it will be the difference here. Buffalo holds a significant rebounding edge, especially on the offensive end where they rank 38th in the nation in second chance baskets. If you know anything about basketball, it’s a demoralizing factor when you give up offensive rebounds and put backs and Canisius should know that all to well. The Griffins rate 262nd when it comes to allowing second chance scoring opportunities to opponents. These two teams have very similar defensive efficiency ratings with the Bulls checking in at the 203rd spot while the Griffins are 213th. On the offensive end of the floor the Bulls are 161st in efficiency ratings, the Griffins are 265th. Looking solely at the raw data we are betting on the better offensive team and the defensive team without even factoring in the schedule played to date. Buffalo has played the 127th rated schedule while Canisius has played the 349th yet have better numbers. The situation couldn’t be any better as Buffalo pulled a huge upset two games ago in beating DePaul, then were upset at home as a 16-point favorite to Army meaning they’ll be ready to play here. Recently the Bulls were an 8-point home favorite against William and Mary who rates far superior to Canisius and beat them by 11-points. Last season when these same two teams met in Canisius the Bulls were favored by 15-points and are now laying just 8 at home this season. The fast-paced Bulls will have no problem scoring enough points to win this game by 10 or more points.