#834 ASA PLAY ON Nebraska -8.5 over Rutgers, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Nebraska’s home vs road dichotomy is as drastic as any team in the nation.  They are 8-0 at home this year and 2-3 on the road (2-1 in neutral site games).  At home the Huskers average 83 PPG (71 PPG on the road), they shoot almost 48% at home (45% on the road), and 35% from 3 at home (30% on the road).  The Huskers have now won 20 consecutive home games dating back to last season while Rutgers is 0-3 SU on the road this year and they only win 3 of their last 17 road games.  The Knights are a young team with 4 freshmen in the starting line up so it’s not surprising they’ve struggled away from home.  Four of their last five losses have come by double digits and they are catching Nebraska in a tough spot with the Huskers coming off 2 straight road losses @ Iowa in OT and @ Purdue.  The Huskers are much better defensively (top 25 in defensive efficiency) and they are also better offensively averaging 1.12 PPP compared to 1.10 for Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover their last 7 games on the road and we like Nebraska to win this one by double digits.  Lay it with the Huskers.

#718 ASA PLAY ON Furman -2.5 over East Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a great bounce back spot for Furman at home after they lost by 19 points here on Monday night vs Wofford as a 7-point favorite. It was an embarrassing effort and their first home loss of the season (14-3 record overall). Wofford shot over 40% from deep in that game (13 of 32) while Furman made only 23% of their triples. The Paladins were also destroyed on the boards as Wofford had 20 offensive rebounds in the game gathering a ridiculous 54% of their misses. Veteran head coach Bob Richey (169-73 record at Furman) was visibly disappointed in his press conference and mentioned they came out on their heels and got physically bullied. You can expect them to come out aggressive right out of the gate in this one. Furman’s 3 point defense, which was torched on Monday, has been really solid this season allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from deep (56th nationally) so we look for a much better showing tonight. ETSU is just 2-6 SU on the road this year with their wins coming by 2 points @ Mercer and @ Charlotte, both ranked outside the top 230 per KenPom. Going back further the Buccaneers have won only 7 of their last 29 road games. ETSU has a 10-7 SU record this year despite playing the 327th most difficult schedule so far. Furman has played the much tougher slate to date and the Paladins have better offensive FG% and defensive FG% numbers despite that. We’re also getting some value here because of Furman’s poor performance on Monday as they were favored by 7 in that game vs Wofford who rates 15 spots higher (per KenPom) than ETSU. The Paladins have won 6 straight at home vs the Buccaneers and 9 of the last 10. They’ve also won 32 of their last games overall and they’ve only lost consecutive home games ONCE since the start of the 2015 season. We’ll call for a bounce back effort here with Furman getting the cover.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Florida -10 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Missouri has a very good 13-3 record but that’s a bit misleading as they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country (300th SOS) which is by far the lowest in the SEC. The Tigers have faced only 3 top 50 teams this season (per KenPom) and lost all 3. The average rating of the 13 teams they’ve beaten this season is 224th. They’ve also played only 2 true road games this season and lost both along with their only neutral site game. All 13 of their wins have come at home. Tonight they face one of the best teams in the country (Gators #6 per KenPom) and they’ve been rolling over teams at home. Florida’s only loss of the season came by 6 points @ Kentucky and they’ve won all of their 7 homes games by at least 18 points. That includes destroying #1 at the time Tennessee by 30 points (we were on Florida in that one) one week ago tonight. The Gators have been great on both ends of the floor ranking in the top 15 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (only 5 teams can say that). They average 86 PPG (7th nationally) and they are facing a Mizzou defense that barely ranks inside the top 100 in FG% allowed and well outside the top 200 in 3 point FG% allowed. Florida should dominate the glass for extra opportunities as they pull down over 41% of their misses (3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Missouri struggles on the defensive glass (258th in defensive rebounding). The Tigers have gotten a kind whistle from the refs so far (with 13 home games) which has led to 24% of their points coming from the FT line (14th the most in the country). They won’t get that whistle on the road tonight and we don’t think they can keep up in this one. Another home blowout for Florida.

#830 ASA PLAY ON UC San Diego -5.5 over Cal Irvine, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for a very good UC San Diego team. They are 14-2 on the season and 9 of their 16 games have been played away from home. Both of their losses came in November and they have since won 12 straight games. Cal Irvine is also 14-2 and both of their losses came on the road. Both of these teams are tied atop the Big West with 4-0 conference records. The situation, however heavily favors UC San Diego as UCI will be playing their 5th game in 13 days with 4 of those coming on the road. And going back further, the Anteaters have now played 7 of their last 8 games away from home dating back to December 14th. UCSD, on the other hand, is playing just their 3rd game tonight since December 28th and they’ve been at home for the last week. They just rolled Cal Poly by 27 points at home on Thursday night and they were able to spread out their minutes in the blowout. UCI just played on Thursday night @ Cal State Northridge and picked up a win and now they are playing on the road again just 48 hours later. In their win vs CSUN the Anteaters shot well above their season average from 3 point land (33%) making 44% from deep (CSUN shot 14% from beyond the arc) and made 26 FT’s (CSUN made 17) and that was the difference in the game. We don’t see that happening tonight as UCI faces the highest rated opponent (per KenPom) they’ve seen this season. Last season when these 2 faced off in San Diego, the Tritons were rated 70 spots lower than they are this season (130th last year / 60th this year) and they still topped UCI in that game. UCSD is better across the board offensive (better efficiency, FG%, and 3 point FG%) and they’ve been even more impressive at home averaging 89 PPG. San Diego should also have a big advantage in turnover margin in this game which will lead to extra possessions. The Tritons rank 4th nationally in defensive turnover rate (25%) while UCI turns the ball over a lot (281st in offensive turnover rate). On the other end, UCSD only turns the ball over 14% of the time on offense which is the 25th best mark in the nation. We like UC San Diego to get the win and cover here vs what should be a road weary UC Irvine team.

#776 ASA PLAY ON Santa Clara -3 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Quick revenger here for Santa Clara who just lost @ San Francisco in OT on December 30th. San Fran’s largest lead in that game was 5 points while Santa Clara led by double digits in the first half and they led by 4 with just 45 seconds remaining. That was the Broncos only loss in their last 9 games and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Dons have been very solid this season, however on the road they are just 1-2 on the year with their only win coming at Pacific (ranked 282nd per KenPom). In those 3 true road games, SF has shot just 42% while allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. They’ve also allowed 79 PPG in those games which is 12 points above what they allow on the season. Santa Clara is outscoring their opponents by +12 PPG at home and they are averaging 86 PPG here so we expect some solid offensive success for the host. The Broncos beat a very good Oregon State team here at home on Thursday night and they spread their minutes out very nicely with 9 players 10+ minutes. They also have the rest advantage having played just 3 games since playing @ San Francisco including a week off prior to beating Oregon State on Thursday. The Dons have played 4 games since beat Santa Clara and this will be their 5th game in 13 days. The Broncos won this game at home by 7 points last year as a 2.5 point dog and we look for another home win on Saturday. Lay it with Santa Clara.

#678 ASA PLAY ON Illinois Chicago +2 over Bradley, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Bradley is coming off a 7 point home loss vs Drake on Wednesday and the Braves have been trending down the last few weeks. Prior to that loss, Bradley had lost 3 straight ATS (now 4 straight) struggling with Missouri State at home and needed OT to beat Valpo and Indiana State prior to that. The Braves started the season red hot from beyond the arc but that was bound to regress. They are still ranked #2 nationally in 3 point FG% (41%) but over their last 4 games they’ve hit 25%, 35%, 32%, and 28% from deep, all well below their season average. UIC has been trending up winning 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Belmont. The same teams that Bradley recently struggled with (Drake & Missouri State), UIC beat Drake by 4 and Mizzou State by 17 over the last few weeks. Despite playing very well as of late, the Flames continue to get no respect from the oddmakers who have tabbed them as underdogs in 6 straight games and they’ve covered all 6 winning 5 of those games outright. The Flames are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 60 nationally in both FG% and 3 point FG% and they are 5-1 at home this season. We’ve been looking for a spot to fade this flailing Bradley team and this is it. We look for Illinois Chicago to win this game at home.

#820 ASA PLAY ON Montana State Money Line -110 over Northern Colorado, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Montana State has a 5-10 record to date but they’ve played a very tough schedule with 10 road games, including losses @ Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, @ TCU, and @ USC. They are finally back at home after a month plus on the road (last home game was Dec 7th) and they’ve lost 5 straight games (all on the road). Hungry for a win and back at home with a light spread, we really like this spot for an undervalued Montana State team. Northern Colorado has a 10-5 record, however they’ve played a much easier slate and they’ve played only 1 road game in the last month which was a win @ Denver that ranks 327th per KenPom. The Bears are 2-4 SU on the road this season where their defense has been shaky allowing 81 PPG on over 48% shooting by their opponents. Not only have they been poor on the road defensively, for the season the Bears rank 330th in eFG% allowed, 228th in 3 point FG% allowed and 323rd in 2 point FG% allowed. Montana State has a huge edge defensively in this game ranking 101st in eFG% allowed and 9th nationally defending the arc despite playing a tough schedule. The Bobcats have been very unlucky as well in regards to FT “defense” where their opponents have made 80.5% from the stripe which is the highest percentage in the nation. Montana State will also have revenge on their minds here after losing a tight 3 point game @ Northern Colorado last season blowing a 10 point lead with less than 8 minutes to go. Prior to last year’s loss, Montana State had won 8 of the previous 9 in this series and they are 28-8 SU at home all time vs Northern Colorado. Small spread here and we grab the home team.

#682 ASA PLAY ON George Mason -11 over Richmond, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Richmond Spiders.  They are a very poor shooting team ranking outside the top 330 in FG%, FG made per game, and 3 point FG%.  They will struggle big time offensively in this game facing a high level George Masion defense that ranks 3rd nationally allowing opponents to make only 35% of their shots and 12th nationally giving up just 61 PPG.  The Patriots have held over half their opponents (8) to less than 60 points this season and only 1 team has topped 70 points in regulation vs this defense and that was Marquette.  They held a great Duke offense to 68 points which is impressive as the Blue Devils have been held to less than 70 points just twice all season.  George Mason will also come into this home game with a chip on their shoulder after losing their most recent game @ Rhode Island as a favorite after winning 8 of their previous 9 games (only loss @ Duke during that stretch).  On the other side, Richmond will be playing their 2nd straight road game after upsetting UMass on the road as a dog over the weekend.  Nice set up with the host off a loss as a favorite vs the road team off a win as a dog.  That was the Spiders first road win this season (1-4 SU in true road games) and as poor as they’ve been shooting the ball this year, on the road they’ve been abysmal making 38% of their shots and 25% of their triples.  We highly doubt Richmond gets out of the 50’s in this game (they are averaging 53 PPG their last 3 trips to GMU – all losses) while George Mason is averaging 80 PPG at home this season.  Lay it.

#704 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas -3.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas is back home off an embarrassing performance at #1 Tennessee on Saturday. They lost that game 76-52 and they were dominated on the boards which led to head coach John Calipari calling out his team’s effort. After that loss, Calipari has individual meetings with each of his players so we expect a huge effort at home to avoid dropping to 0-2 in the SEC. The Razors are undefeated at home this season while Ole Miss has played only 2 true road games all season. The Rebels won @ Louisville in early December when the Cards were decimated by injuries and they lost @ Memphis by 17 10 days ago. Arky has one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 17th in eFG% and inside the arc they make 60% of their shots which is 7th in the country. They are facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside the top 100 defending the 2 point shot. While Arkansas was dominated on the boards vs Tennessee, they should hold their own here vs a Rebel team that isn’t great on the boards (outside the top 170 in offensive and defensive rebounding). The Razorbacks have won 5 straight at home vs Mississippi and we’re getting an unranked home team favored over ranked road team which has been a profitable situation over the years. Lay it with Arkansas.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Nebraska, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Iowa is off their worst loss since February of 2020 losing @ Wisconsin on Friday 116-85. That dropped the Hawkeyes to 1-2 in Big 10 play and this becomes a must win with 2 of their last 3 on the road. Iowa’s offense played quite well in that loss shooting 48% and averaging 1.12 PPP. Not surprising as they rank in the top 10 nationally in FG%, 2 point FG% and PPG on offense. They are also 23rd in the country in offensive efficiency. The defense obviously let them down on Friday night. Wisconsin shot ridiculously well making 65% of their shots overall, 68% from 3 point land (21 of 31) and 88% from the FT line. While Iowa didn’t play well defensively, it was just one of those nights for the Badgers when everything went in. Expect a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court tonight for the Hawks and if their offense continues to play well, this should be a win. Nebraska is coming off a very important home win over UCLA on Saturday which was their 20th straight home win, however the Huskers are simply a different team away from home. They’ve played one Big 10 road game this season and lost by 27 points @ Michigan State and the Huskers have won only 5 of their last 21 conference road games. Iowa has just 1 home loss this season and that was vs #3 Iowa State in a game the Hawkeyes never trailed until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. At home this season Iowa has shot 54% and 41% from deep. They are facing a Nebraska defense that has allowed opponents to score almost 40% of their points from beyond the arc, 12th most in the country. Not a great match up for this Iowa offense at home. The Hawks have an extra day off as well playing on Friday while Nebraska played on Saturday. Carver Hawkeye Arena has been a house of horrors for the Huskers losing 9 of their last 10 there. Huge home game for Iowa and they’ll come with some extra effort / emotion here after their embarrassing loss on Friday while the Huskers could be a bit flat after a big home win on Saturday.

#614 ASA PLAY ON Florida -2.5 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - What a perfect spot to grab Florida. The Gators are coming off their first loss of the season @ Kentucky on Saturday. Now they are favored at home over the only undefeated in the country #1 Tennessee. That number speaks volumes. In their 106-100 loss @ Kentucky, the Gators normally stout defense played very poorly. They allowed the Wildcats to average a ridiculous 1.47 PPP while shooting almost 60% from the field and 48% from beyond the arc. It was by far the worst defensive performance of the season from a Florida team that ranks inside the top 20 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG% allowed. On a positive note, the Gator offense continued to roll ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency after putting up triple digits and 1.39 PPP on the road vs a very good UK defense. The Vols are off a big home win over Arkansas but they’ve played only 1 true road game since November 9th. That was a 2 point win @ Illinois (a very talented but very young team) and the Illini shot only 29% from the field and 17% from deep in that game and still almost won. Dating back to the start of the 2009 season, Tennessee has lost 9 of their 11 games @ Florida including the last 2 where they were favored in both games and lost by double digits. Since the start of last season, the Gators have won 21 of their last 22 home games with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Kentucky last year. This season, SEC home teams are 132-3 SU while on the road they are just 15-14 SU. We like Florida to get the win and cover on Tuesday.

#844 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Maryland, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We just laid 4.5 points with Oregon on Thursday night at home vs Illinois and it was a terrible pick to say the least. The Ducks were embarrassed 109-77 and we expect a huge bounce back at home on Sunday. As of this writing the line is Oregon -3 so we’re getting some nice value because of that terrible performance as the Illini rank in the top 10 per KenPom and Maryland sits at 26th and the line is lower for this one. The Ducks came into their game on Thursday night with just 1 loss, a 2 point setback to a very good UCLA team. Their defense had been really good prior to Thursday when Illinois went off for 58% from the field and 55% from the arc on a ridiculous 1.40 PPP. You can bet veteran head coach Dana Altman will have his team locked in defensively after that effort. The Ducks have played a very difficult schedule to date (27th SOS) and have some outstanding wins over Alabama, Texas A&M, and San Diego State. Maryland is in a rough situation as they were @ Washington on Thursday night now 72 hours later @ an angry Oregon team. The Terps lost at Washington (the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 10) by 6 on Thursday and they’ve lost both of their true road games this season. Unlike Oregon, the Terps have played a very easy schedule to date (330th SOS) and they are just 2-3 SU vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. Maryland has won only 3 of their last 17 road games in conference play and while we think they’ll be a solid team this year, this is not the spot. Lay it with Oregon.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -2 over San Francisco, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough turnaround for San Francisco who played on the road @ Pacific just 48 hours ago and now they are @ Washington State. The Dons pulled off the 89-81 win @ Pacific but a non-cover as SF was favored by 13 over the Tigers who now have a record of 5-12. The Dons shot lights out hitting 51% of their shots, 45% of their triples and mad 19 of 21 FT’s but were still unable to pull away (final margin of 9 was their largest of the game) from a bad Pacific team. Now they travel to Washington State who is a perfect 6-0 at home this season with all of their wins coming by double digits and they’ve won 21 of their last 23 at home. The Cougars are one of the best shooting teams in the country (49.5%) ranking 28th but at home they up that to over 52% from the field while averaging 88 PPG. These 2 have nearly identical records (WSU 12-3 and SF 13-3) but Wazzou has played the tougher schedule at 109th SOS compared to the Dons at 229th. San Fran has played only 2 true road games this season winning @ Pacific as we discussed and losing @ Bradley. The situation heavily favors the home team who rarely loses on their home court. With the small spread, we’ll grab Washington State

#650 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -10.5 over Nebraska Omaha, Saturday at 2 PM ET - This sets up nicely situationally with NDSU coming off a rare home loss as a favorite while Nebraska Omaha is on a short 2 day turnaround coming off a road win @ UND as an underdog. We were on NDSU a few nights ago at home vs St Thomas and they lost their first game since November 26th with the Tommies winning 89-85. St Thomas hit 54% of their shots (43% for NDSU) and 47% from beyond the arc yet the game still went to the wire. We expect the Bison to come out with some fire at home after that tough loss. Prior to that this North Dakota State team had been destroying opponents at home. Their previous 3 home games were wins by margins of 29, 36, and 34 points with the latter 2 coming vs Western Michigan and Cal State Bakersfield who both rank higher than this Nebraska Omaha team. They’ve been shooting as well as any team in the nation ranking 4th in the country in eFG% and 3rd in 3 point FG% hitting just over 41% and they make nearly 79% of their FTs. That’s bad news for a Nebraska Omaha defense 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG% allowed, and 281st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Bison average 85 PPG at home while UNO gives up 78 PPG on the road so we expect NDSU to have a huge night offensively. Can the Mavericks keep up in this game? We don’t think so. They’re not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 220 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They’ll need to get hot from 3 to stay in this game but that’ll be tough as they make only 33% from deep (162nd nationally) and NDSU defends the arc very well ranking 50th. UNO has averaged just 66 PPG in their 6 road losses this season and we look for an easy with for North Dakota State in this one.

#800 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Illinois, Thursday at 10 PM ET - Illinois makes the long travel to play @ Oregon Thursday night. The Illini have played only 1 true road game this season and they lost @ Northwestern. The other “semi” road game they played was in Birmingham, AL vs the Crimson Tide and Illinois lost that game by double digits. While the Illini are talented, they are very young with a number of freshman and sophomores in their rotation (304th in experience) and we think they’ll struggle at times on the road vs high level teams. That’s what they get here @ Oregon. The Ducks are very good and experienced with 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 8 of their top 9 players in terms of minutes per game are seniors. They are 12-1 on the season, despite playing a really tough schedule (39th SOS), and their lone setback was by 2 points vs a UCLA team that is 11-2. The Ducks have been really good at home winning 21 of their last 25 games in Knight Arena and their average margin of victory at home this season is +19 PPG. The Illini rely heavily on the 3 point shot (58th in percentage of points scored from beyond the arc) and getting to the FT line (53rd in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe). Two problems here, that plays right into Oregon’s defensive strengths (24th defending the arc & 60th in points allowed from the FT line. On top of that, Illinois has shot poorly away from home which can be expected from a young team. They have made only 37% of their shots and 26% of their triples in their 1 true road game @ NW. We like the Ducks to win and cover at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON Butler +2.5 over Villanova, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Huge home game here for Butler who has lost 5 straight games and really needs a win here with their next 2 games coming on the road. To put their 5 game losing streak into perspective, 4 of those losses came vs UConn, Marquette, Houston, and Wisconsin who currently have a combined record of 40-11. Their most recent game was a 4 point loss to UConn in a game that went down to the wire. The Bulldogs have faced an extremely difficult schedule to date (33rd SOS) and today’s opponent, Villanova, is rated lower than 7 teams Butler has already played. The Wildcats have played 2 true road games and lost both @ St Joes and @ Creighton. They’ve also played 2 neutral site games and lost those as well so Nova is 0-4 away from home this year. The Bulldogs should have 2 solid offensive advantages in this game. One from beyond the arc and the other at the FT line. Both teams shoot the 3 well (ranked 9th and 20th in 3 point FG%) but Villanova is poor at defending the arc ranking 317th (Butler ranks 70th at defending the 3 point line). The Dogs get to the line A LOT with 26% of their points coming from the stripe (7th best in the nation) while the Wildcats rarely get to the line with just 16% of their points coming from the FT line (312th). Butler has won 4 of their last 5 at home vs Villanova and we look for them to come out on top again Wednesday. Take the points.

#656 ASA PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Utah State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - We went against Nevada on the road on Saturday and picked up a win with Wyoming as a 6 point dog. The Cowboys won the game by 3 points and that puts Nevada in a must win type spot after dropping to 0-2 in the Mountain West. After this game they play their next 2 on the road so this becomes a huge home game for the host. Nevada has actually lost 2 straight so this is a huge game for the Pack. They are catching Utah State in a terrible spot playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off back to back upset wins as underdogs on the road over St Mary’s and San Diego State. In their win on Saturday @ SDSU, the Aggies never led by more than 1 point and trailed for 95% of the game. They made a 3 pointer with 7 seconds left to win 67-66. The Aztecs shot just 38% and only 25% from deep and still led mainly the entire game. Reno is a very tough place to play with Nevada winning 35 of their last 40 home games and they’ve also won 5 of their last 6 at home vs MWC rival Utah State. In their most recent home game, Nevada was -8 vs a solid Colorado State team that isn’t a fully 5+ points worse than CSU on a neutral court which is what this line suggests. This spot screams to take the home team and at this low number, we’ll do just that.

#883 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -4 over Cal Baptist, Monday at 10 PM ET - Love this spot for UC Irvine. They are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 70-54 loss @ Duquesne, and they’ve had 10 days to stew about that setback and get ready for this one. UCI is 10-2 on the season and their only other loss was @ Oregon State. The Anteaters have won 2 straight Big West Titles and are favored to win their 3rd this season. They are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd in the country in defensive efficiency and they are holding opponents FG percentage of 39.4% on the season. In their loss @ Duquesne, the Anteaters allowed the Dukes to hit 49% of their shots and 56% of their triples while allowing 1.17 points per possession, their worst mark of the season. It was just the 3rd time in 12 games this season UCI allowed an opponent to average more than 1.00 PPP. After that subpar performance and more than a week off to make adjustments, we expect UCI to be really focused on the defensive end of the court. They should have plenty of success vs a Cal Baptist team that ranks 255th making just 43.5% of their shots while hitting only 30% of their 3’s (297th). The Cal Baptist Lancers have played an easy slate this far (283rd SOS) yet they have a 7-6 record. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 and tonight they face a UCI team that ranks 69th nationally per KenPom. The Lancers just played on Saturday so a quick turnaround vs an angry, rested team. In their game on Saturday Cal Baptist struggled to a 79-73 home win vs a Jackson State team that is winless on the season (0-13 record). UC Irvine is absolutely the better team in this match up and they are in the better situation as well. We’re getting a cheap line because they are on the road. We’ll take it.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UC Riverside +1 over St Thomas, Sunday at 5 PM ET - Long travel for St Thomas (Minneapolis) and they are a bit overvalued right now having won 6 straight games. 4 of those 6 wins came vs teams that are ranked 285th or lower and their 1 solid road win this year @ Northern Colorado, the Tommies shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. They are 3-3 on the road with their other 2 wins coming vs teams ranked 285th and 322nd. Now they face a top 200 team in the road in UC Riverside. The Highlanders have played a very tough schedule thus far (47th ranked SOS / St Thomas SOS is 250th) yet they still have a solid 8-5 record. UCR is 5-0 at home and should have a little extra motivation here coming off a 66-53 loss @ UNLV a week ago. St Thomas gets very little inside production (301st in percentage of points inside the arc) and they don’t get to the line very often. Thus, they rely very heavily on make 3 point shots which can make life tough on the road especially facing a solid 3 point defense (UCR allows 32% from deep). The Tommie also have a huge Summit League game on deck vs North Dakota State, the best team in the conference, so that game is of more importance. Coming from Minneapolis, they may view this as a bit of a vacation on west coast with warm weather before tipping off conference play on Thursday. Plus being away from home over the holidays may make it extra tough to focus. We’ll take the home team here.

#626 ASA PLAY ON Elon -5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Elon has played the more difficult schedule to date (#185 SOS compared to #307 for Marshall), yet they still have the better record at 8-4 (Marshall is 7-6). Elon is also 4-0 at home this year while Marshall is 0-5 on the road. Dating back to last season Marshall has lost 12 straight road games and all but 2 of those have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread (as of Friday evening). The Phoenix have already beaten 3 teams this season ranked higher than Marshall including a solid road win @ Notre Dame. They should have a huge advantage as the FT line in this game as Elon scores over 21% of their points from the stripe (69th nationally) and the Herd fouls a lot with their opponents scoring 25% of their points from the stripe (12th worst nationally). On the other end, we don’t expect Marshall to get many freebies as the disciplined Elon defense fouls very little. On top of that, Marshall is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country (28% which is 334th) which makes it very tough to win on the road. Their defense will struggle to keep them in this game as well as they allow over 50% shooting on the road and 81 PPG. Lay it with Elon on Saturday.

#867 ASA PLAY ON College of Charleston +2.5 over Loyola Chicago, Monday at 5:30 PM ET - Both of these teams lost yesterday in their opening games of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu. Much different circumstances however as Loyola was a 6.5 point favorite and lost to Oakland who has a current record of 4-7 and their only lead in that game was 2-0. C of C lost as a dog to a very good Oregon State team making only 6 of 24 three point shots (24%) when on the season they’ve hit 36% from deep (81st nationally). Loyola will have a tougher time in this back to back situation as they are without 3 starters which has drastically thinned their bench. Those 3 players account for nearly 30 PPG, 10 RPG, and 7 APG and each average over 20 minutes per game. When healthy, the Ramblers won their first 8 games, but since the injuries to 3 key players, they have lost 2 of their last 3 with their only win in that stretch coming vs Canisius who is 0-13 and ranked 357th. Even in that win, Loyola didn’t really dominate a bad team winning by 12 at home. The Cougars have played the much tougher schedule (102nd SOS compared to 361st for Loyola) but still have a solid 8-3 record with top 100 wins over St Joes and FAU. The Ramblers have only played 1 team in the top 100 and lost that game by double digits vs San Francisco. If this one is tight, it could be won or lost from the FT line and C of C hits 76% of their freebies compared to 64% from Loyola. Tough spot for an undermanned Rambler team playing their second game in 24 hours. We’ll take the points.

#753 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -3 over Missouri, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Missouri is 10-1 on the season but they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking 361st in SOS out of 364 teams.  They’ve faced only 2 top 100 teams all season and the Tigers have also played 10 straight home games.  Their only game away from home was a loss @ Memphis to start the season.  7 of their 11 opponents this season currently rank 255th or lower.  Illinois is 7-3 on the year but they’ve faced the 71st most difficult schedule to date with their losses coming vs Bama & Tennessee (2 top 10 teams) and @ Northwestern in OT in a game the Illini led by double digits in the 2nd half.  Their most recent game was a 66-64 home loss vs #1 Tennessee losing a layup as time expired by the Vols.  The Illini have had a full week to get over that tough loss and get ready for this game.  These 2 rank nearly identical in offensive efficiency yet Illinois is far better on the defensive end (12th in defensive efficiency to 103rd for Mizzou) despite playing the much tougher schedule as we referenced earlier.  Illinois is also the much better rebounding team and they keep opponents off the foul line which is where Mizzou has lived thus far ranking 25th in percentage of points from the FT line.  This game is played on a neutral site in St Louis and last season Illinois throttled Missouri by 24 points.  The Illini are still a top 20 team (per KenPom) and while the Tigers have improved, they were 8-24 last year so how much have they improved?  It’s really hard to tell as they’ve been at home all season and only played a few good teams.  We’ll lay the small number with the team we know is solid, that’s Illinois.

#708 ASA PLAY ON Kentucky -8.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - OSU will be shorthanded here with starting PG Johnson out. The Buckeyes are 7-4 on the season and they’ve been poor when stepping up in competition. They’ve faced 4 teams this season ranked in the top 35 (per KenPom) and they’ve lost those games by 38, 24, 14, and 1 point (1 point loss was AT HOME vs Pitt). The Buckeyes have had a rough go offensive away from home (road or neutral) averaging just 64 PPG including getting held under 60 points twice. That’s a huge difference compared to their home splits where they average 90 PPG on the season. 5 of OSU’s 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200 all but 1 of their 7 wins have come at home. Kentucky has 1 loss on the season @ Clemson and they have 4 top 100 wins including topping Duke and Gonzaga, 2 top 6 teams per KenPom. They Buckeye offense relies pretty heavily on the 3 point shot (almost 35% of their points come from deep) but they are facing a Wildcat defense that ranks 12th nationally defending the arc allowing only 27%. The Kentucky defense has allowed opponents to make only 39% of their shot this year so we expect OSU to have problems on offense. Offensively the Wildcats lead the nation in scoring at 91 PPG and they rank 8th nationally in offensive efficiency. OSU’s defense has allowed 83 PPG vs the 5 top 100 teams they’ve faced. We don’t think the Buckeyes can keep up offensively here. Lay it with Kentucky.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -3 over Northern Iowa, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This game is on a neutral site in Las Vegas. Washington State has the better record (9-3 compared to 7-4 for UNI) and they’ve played the much tougher slate thus far. Wazzou’s strength of schedule is ranked 84th while Northern Iowa has played the 258th ranked SOS so far. This line is lower than it should be according to our power ratings and that’s because UNI has won 4 straight games in blowout fashion vs teams ranked 205th, 353rd, 303rd, and 213th. The Panthers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100 and 6 of their 7 wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Washington State’s 3 losses this season have all come vs teams inside the top 100 (Iowa, SMU, and Washington). The Cougars are coming off a loss @ Washington on Wednesday giving them a little extra motivation here. Unlike UNI, the Cougars have already beaten 3 top 100 teams including Boise State on the road, Nevada on the road, and Bradley at home. Northern Iowa has done most of their damage at home but on the road (away or neutral) they are just 1-3 on the season with their only win coming vs Illinois Chicago. The Panthers lead the nation in FG% and they are #2 in 3 point FG% hitting at numbers that are not sustainable. Their 4 game winning streak has come vs poor opponents that all rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. Now they face a Washington State defense that ranks 87th in that category. We like Wazzou to cover this small number in Las Vegas on Saturday.

#748 ASA PLAY ON Utah Tech +2.5 over South Dakota, Thursday at 9 PM ET - South Dakota steps into this game with a 9-4 record facing a 3-10 Utah Tech team and yet the Coyotes are only favored by 2.5 (opening line)? Looks pretty easy to grab South Dakota here but we’re on Utah Tech. The Coyotes record has been partly a product of their schedule. They’ve faced the 316th most difficult slate this season with 8 of their 13 games coming at home. On the road, this team is just 1-4 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Western Michigan (3-7 current record) by 4 points in a game WMU shot 18% from 3 and took 10 fewer FT attempts. Going back further, this South Dakota team has simply been terrible on the road winning just 5 of their last 32 dating back to the start of the 2022 season. Tough to consider them when favored on the road. On top of that, laying points on the road with a terrible defense is not ideal. The Coyotes 349th in defensive efficiency (out of 364 teams) and they rank 328th defending the arc. Tough to win on the road this those numbers on the defensive end. Utah Tech as a bad record but they’ve also faced the 67th most difficult schedule which is a huge jump from what South Dakota has faced. They’ve also only played 4 homes games and 9 road games this season. One of their top players, Beon Riley (14 PPG & 8 RPG) has missed the last few games and they are thinking they’ll have him back here. We’ll take the points here and call for Utah Tech to win this one outright.

#706 ASA PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over VCU, Thursday at 9 PM ET - VCU is 9-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the easier schedules on the country (301st SOS per KenPom).  They’ve faced on only 2 top 100 teams this season (1-1 record) and 8 of their 9 wins have come vs teams that rank 150th or lower.  On top of that, this is their first true road game of the season as they head to the Pit, one of the tougher places to play in the country.  New Mexico hasn’t left home this entire month while VCU played in Vegas on Saturday vs Colorado State and now travel to Albuquerque for this one.  The Lobos have played the more difficult schedule to date and have already beaten 2 top 100 teams (UCLA and USC both on neutral courts).  VCU’s defensive numbers for the season are solid, however, they’ve faced only 2 top 100 offense (efficiency) so far this season and they split those 2 games beating Miami FL and losing to Nevada.  Tonight they face a potent New Mexico offense that is averaging nearly 90 PPG (8th best scoring offense in the nation).  VCU thrives at turning teams over leading to extra possessions but New Mexico has done a very good job at protecting the ball (70th in offensive turnover rate) so that may not work tonight on the road.  The Lobos have won 19 of their last 23 home games and this is a huge game for them with 3 of their next 4 coming on the road.  Lay the small spread with New Mexico.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ohio St -21.5 over Valparaiso, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - OSU will be looking to smack someone here after getting blasted by Auburn 91-53 on Saturday in Atlanta. The Bucks have shown good bounce back ability when facing inferior opponents this year. Prior to their loss on Saturday, they were twice beaten by double digits on the road this season @ Texas A&M and @ Maryland and turned around the next game and beat Evansville by 30 and Rutgers by 14. OSU has also shown this season that when tabbed a big favorite, they have no problem burying teams. They have been a chalk of -19 or higher 4 times this season and covered all 4 by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were favored by anywhere from -19 to -25 in those 4 games and the average final score in those blowout wins was 92-51. Valpo has a 5-4 record on the season but they’ve faced the 342nd most difficult schedule per KenPom. Their only true road game was a 19 point loss @ DePaul in a game they trailed by 25 with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Crusaders have faced only 2 teams all season ranked inside the top 200 (both losses) and OSU is the best team they’ve played this year by a wide margin. The Buckeyes rank inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive eFG% while Valpo ranks outside the top 285 in both those statistics despite facing one of the easier schedules in the country. OSU’s losses have come all vs top 30 teams (Auburn, Maryland, Pitt, and Texas A&M) and Valparaiso has been terrible on the road winning just once in their last 19 true roadies. This has blowout written all over it.

#607 ASA PLAY ON Clemson -2.5 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Clemson has the better record in this one despite playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers are 9-2 on the season and they’ve faced the 75th most difficult schedule to date.  Their losses have come @ Boise State and in OT on Saturday vs Memphis.   The Tigers have wins over Kentucky, Penn State, and Miami FL (all top 100 teams).  The Gamecocks are 7-3 but they’ve faced the 261st most difficult slate thus far.  They don’t have a win vs anyone in the top 140 and in their 2 games vs top 100 teams, they lost both by 16 vs Indiana and by 9 vs Xavier, both rated lower than this Clemson team.  South Carolina also already has a home loss vs North Florida who was the highest rated team they’ve faced at home thus far.  The Tigers have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court and they are the much better rebounding team.  If this one is tight late, FT’s could be key in who wins this one and Clemson shoots 74% from the stripe compared to 66% for South Carolina.  Clemson has won 5 of the last 7 in this in-state rivalry including 2 of the last 3 @ South Carolina.  The Tigers should play with a little extra edge here coming off their OT loss vs a very good Memphis team who had wins over UConn, Michigan State, and Missouri prior to squeaking one out on Saturday @ Clemson.  We like the Tigers laying the small number. 

#306627 ASA PLAY ON Norfolk State +3.5 over Northern Kentucky, Sunday at 1 PM ET - NKY is 4-6 on the season and their 4 wins have come vs Kentucky State (Non D1), University of the Cumberlands (Non D1), Bellarmine (ranked 333rd), and IU Indy (ranked 349th). Not an impressive list to say the least. Their defense has been one of the worst in the country ranking 337th in eFG% allowed and 358th in 3 point FG% allowed. They haven’t been much better on the other end of the court offensively ranking 295th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG%. Throw out their games vs the 2 Non Division 1 teams listed above and the Norse are only averaging 65 PPG on the season. Norfolk State is 6-5 on the year and they have already tallied 3 true road wins. The Spartans are the much better shooting team hitting 49% of their shots on the season (42nd nationally) led by 2 very solid guards (Moore & Ings) who combined to average 33 PPG this season. Norfolk returns 4 starters from last year’s team that finished with a 24-11 record. They are very well coached by head man Robert Jones who returns for his 12th season and over the last 3 years (prior to this season) he has led the Spartans to 70 wins and just 29 losses. They are hungry for a win here coming off back to back losses including losing @ Baylor on Wednesday so a little extra motivation for the better team in our opinion. NKY continues to be overvalued with a 1-7 ATS record on the season while Norfolk is 7-2 ATS, including a 5-1 mark as an underdog. Take the points with Norfolk as we like them to win this game outright.

#704 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13.5 over UW Green Bay, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UWGB making the long travel to the west coast after getting rolled at home by rival UW Milwaukee on Wednesday night. The Phoenix lost that game by 19 points but it wasn’t that close was UWM led by 29 with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. New head coach Doug Gottlieb is struggling in his first year ever coaching CBB with a 2-9 overall record and 6 straight losses. Their 2 wins came vs Western Illinois (ranked 325th) and SIUE (ranked 259th) with their most recent win coming nearly a month ago. The Phoenix are a terrible defensive team ranking outside the top 330 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and PPG allowed. They have given up more than 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Not a great match up here for that terrible defense facing a UCSB team that ranks 13th in eFG%, 24th in 3 point FG%, and 31st in 2 point FG%. The Gauchos are also stout on the defensive end allowing opponents to shoot just 38% which is the 18th best mark in the nation. UCSB should get plenty of extra opportunities as well on the offensive end as UWGB is a terrible rebounding team on both ends. The Phoenix are also working through some locker room issues as their leading scorer was benched 2 games ago for not showing up to a pre-game shoot around. UCSB rolls in this one.

#630 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13.5 over NC State, Saturday at 3:15 PM ET - Love this spot for the Jayhawks at home. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Creighton and @ Missouri and they’ve had the full week off to stew about those setbacks and get ready for this home game vs NC State. Let’s not forget before those back to back losses, the Jayhawks had wins over UNC, Michigan State, and Duke and they’ve faced the 15th most difficult schedule to date. NC State, on the other hand, has 3 losses already this season and they’ve faced the 303rd most difficult schedule so far per KenPom. The only win the Wolfpack have vs a team inside the top 200 was vs Florida State and that was at home in OT in a game they trailed by 6 in regulation late. Their 3 losses have come vs top 100 teams Texas at home, and by double digits vs Purdue and BYU on neutral courts. This will be their first true road game of the season and Kansas is the best team they’ve faced to date. Minus their win vs FSU, all of the Wolfpack’s wins have come vs teams ranked 215th or lower. Their most recent game on Tuesday night was at home vs an 0-11 Coppin State team that is rated the 2nd worst team in the nation (363rd) and NC State only won that game by 10 points as a 32 point favorite. That’s the closest game Coppin State has had this season and that includes the likes of UMBC, Loyola Maryland, Wagner, High Point, and Rider who all beat them by a larger margin than NC State. The Wolfpack have only 1 starter back from last year and they are still finding their way with a number of new transfers. Kansas is waiting to smack someone at home and it just happens that NC State is that someone. Blowout here.

#672 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +6.5 over Iowa State, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Huge revenge game for the Hawkeyes who were demolished last year @ ISU 90-65 as an 8 point dog. The Cyclones are laying nearly that same number on the road this year so we like the value with Iowa. ISU is playing their first true road game of the season and they have struggled in Iowa City losing 4 straight here, all by at least 14 points, with their last road win in this rivalry coming in 2014. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 2 point road loss @ Michigan last Saturday in a game they shot just 42% to Michigan’s 55% and made 7 fewer FT’s but still had a shot to win on the road vs a very good opponent. The Cyclone defense thrives on creating turnovers to pick up extra possessions but they may not get that advantage here vs an veteran Iowa back court that has only turned the ball over at a 14% rate (32nd nationally). Iowa State has also had a huge edge at the FT line in their games thus far attempting 93 more FT’s than their opponents in their 8 games. However, Iowa has done a great job of not fouling with only 12% of their opponents points coming from the charity stripe (11th lowest rate in the nation). On top of that, with this game being in Iowa City, we don’t see ISU getting a friendly whistle on Thursday night. The Hawkeyes should have a solid advantage from beyond the arc where they rank 33rd in 3 point shots made per game to ISU’s 208th in that category. Iowa had defended the arc very well this season allowing just 27% (13th nationally) so the Cyclones may make even fewer from deep than their average which isn’t great. Iowa has been waiting for this one after last year’s debacle and we expect this one to be tight. Iowa and the generous points are worth the take here.

#645 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +15 over Louisville, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Louisville has been decimated by injuries early in the season and they’ve struggled as of late losing 3 straight. They’ve already lost 2 starters for the season and their backup PG is also now out for the year. The most recent injury to Kesean Pryor on November 29th was a huge loss as he was putting up 12 PPG and 6 RPG. It’s gotten to a point for the Cards that head coach Pat Kelsey mentioned they’ve struggled to simply go 5x5 in practice due to lack of bodies (they are down to 8 scholarship players). They gave a valiant effort vs Duke here on Sunday building a 14 point first half lead but running out of gas in the 2nd half losing 76-65 and the Cards played only 7 players. Coming off that all out effort and facing arch rival Kentucky on Saturday, we have to believe Louisville might struggle here in this massive sandwich spot. UTEP is a solid team coming off a winning season last year and bringing back a number of their key players. The Miners are 7-2 on the season and have some momentum with 3 straight wins including topping 2 solid teams UNCG and Seattle, both top 140 teams. Unlike Louisville, the Miners are very deep with 10 guys averaging double digit minutes and 8 players averaging between 5 PPG and 13.5 PPG. Defensively they rank #1 in the nation this year AND last year at creating turnovers with opponents coughing it up 28% of the time. That could be a problem for a thin Louisville team that has struggled with turnovers this season and doesn’t have a backup PG. UTEP can also make 3’s (38% which is 50th in the nation) and they make their FT’s (76%). Going back to the start of last season, the Miners have lost only 3 games by more than 14 points (tonight’s line is +14.5). We like UTEP to give Louisville all they can handle on Wednesday and we’ll take the hefty points.

#610 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers -1 over Penn State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We really like this spot for Rutgers coming off 3 consecutive games while they catch PSU after their upset, court storming, home win over Purdue. The Scarlet Knights 3 games losing streak is not a huge surprise as they played high level opponents, away from home, and they were dogs in all 3 of those games vs Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ohio State. They covered 2 of those games losing tight games to Bama (by 5) and A&M (by 4) and they looked emotionally spent in their most recent loss @ OSU. Now Rutgers is back at home for the first time since November 20th and they get to face a Penn State team that has yet to play a true road game. They’ve faced a tough schedule (73rd SOS) thus far taking on 4 teams ranked in the top 80 while PSU’s SOS is ranked 296th and they’ve faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 100 (beat Purdue at home and lost to Clemson on a neutral). An extra layer of motivation for the Knights as they were favored by 8 points at home vs PSU in January and lost shooting just 34%, making only 1 of 17 from beyond the arc, and missing half their FT’s. It was one of the Nittany Lions 2 road wins last year (2-8 SU on the road last season & 7-24 SU on the road the last 3 seasons). PSU is hitting 52% of their shots this season (4th in the country) which isn’t sustainable, especially in their first true road game. They’ve faced only 2 top 100 defensive efficiency teams and already 4 ranked outside the top 300 in that category. Rutgers has one of the most talented teams they’ve ever had with 2 freshmen (Bailey and Harper) each expected to be top 10 draft picks next year. We like a bounce back, all in effort from Rutgers and at this small number we really only need them to win at home.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -4.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 12 PM ET - This is a really good situational spot to grab the Boilers on a low number at home. Purdue was just smoked 81-70 on the road @ Penn State on Thursday. It wasn’t that close as PSU led by 27 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Nittany Lions shot very well in that win but the huge edge was at the FT line where they made 29 freebies compared to 14 for Purdue. The Boilermakers also committed a ridiculous 24 turnovers which turned out to be a giveaway on 33% of their possessions. Head coach Matt Painter was upset after the game as you might expect. “Our fight wasn't even close to Penn State's fight. It wasn't even close. Not remotely close,” he said after the loss. You can expect Purdue to play with passion on Sunday. They are facing a Maryland team that is solid, but has yet to play a true road game. They’ve also faced one of the easiest schedules in the country (349th SOS per KenPom – Purdue has played the 16th most difficult SOS) with 6 of their 9 opponents thus far ranking outside the top 250. The Terps are coming off a blowout home win vs Ohio State and the Buckeyes looked disinterested after blowing a big lead and losing to Pitt in OT their previous game. Purdue is undefeated at home including an impressive 9 point win over top 10 Alabama. They have lost back to back games only one time since the start of the 2022 season and the Boilermakers have won 41 of their last 42 home games. The last 5 times these teams have faced off at Mackey Arena the Boilers have been favored by an average of -10.5 points and they’ve won all 5. We’re getting them at a very low number here because of their performance and PSU”s and Maryland’s blowout win over OSU. Take Purdue.

#638 ASA PLAY ON St Thomas -6 over Montana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on Montana as a home dog earlier this week facing South Dakota State and we picked up a nice win with the Grizzlies coming out on top 71-67. SDSU played that game without their leading scorer & rebounder Oscar Cluff, who averages 18 PPG and 11 RPG. That was a huge loss to a very young SDSU team that plays a number of freshmen and they were playing their first true road game of the season. Even with Cluff out the Jackrabbits kept it fairly close despite shooting only 17% from beyond the arc. Now Montana must travel to Minneapolis to face a full strength St Thomas team that ranks with SDSU at the top team in the Summit League. The Griz have won 4 in a row, however all those wins were at home. They are 0-3 SU on the road this season. St Thomas is unbeaten at home this season and they just won @ Northern Arizona by 12 points, a team from the Big Sky that is rated higher than Montana in that conference. The Tommies weakness is on the boards but the Grizzlies aren’t a team that can take advantage of that as they are bad on the glass as well. St Thomas is one of the better shooting teams in the country ranking 23rd nationally in eFG%, 46th in 3-point FG% and 31st in 2-point FG%. They also make over 76% of their FT’s. Montana is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arc where they make only 28% (313th). With the Tommies shooting well and averaging 84 PPG on the season, we’re not sure Montana can keep up. Lay the small number.

#894 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +4.5 over Illinois, Friday at 9 PM ET - We think the Illini are overvalued right now after playing a very easy schedule thus far (309th SOS) and now playing their first true road game of the season. The Illini have played only 2 top 100 teams thus far and split those 2 games. NW is coming off a tough loss @ Iowa where the Hawkeyes hit a 3 pointer at the horn to win by 1 point. The Wildcats led that game by 6 points with less than 2:00 minutes remaining the game and obviously had a great shot to win a road game despite Iowa hitting 55% of their shots. NW’s 3 losses this season came @ Iowa by 1, @ Dayton by 5 (Dayton’s 2 losses are vs UNC by 2 and Iowa St by 5) and @ Butler by 2. The Cats have won the last 2 meetings outright in Evanston, both as underdogs. The Illinois defensive numbers are impressive, however, they have faced 3 teams ranked outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency and the only good offensive team they’ve faced, Alabama, put up 100 points. The Illini have a huge game on deck vs Wisconsin and they are facing a Northwestern team that has won 20 of their last 22 home games. This smells like a potential upset to us. We’ll take the points with Northwestern.

#892 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia -9.5 over Georgetown, Friday at 7 PM ET - Georgetown is 7-1 on the season but they are taking huge step up in competition here. The Hoyas strength of schedule ranks 354th (out of 364 teams) per KenPom. On top of that all 8 of their games have been at home. The only team they’ve played that ranks in the top 220 is Notre Dame, that game was at home and Georgetown lost that game by 21 points. That was vs an Irish team that currently has a losing record at 4-5. West Virginia, on the other hand, has played the 23rd strength of schedule and their only 2 losses are vs high level opponents Pitt and Louisville in OT. The Mountaineers have already beaten Gonzaga (who ranks #4 per KenPom) and Arizona (top 30 per KenPom). WVU has had a full week off since returning from their Bahamas tourney where they went 2-1 facing 3 top 50 teams. West Virginia has the better eFG% both offensively and defensively despite facing the much tougher schedule. The Mountaineers are the much better 3 point shooting team (35% to 29%) and if they need to close this one out and the foul line they hit 76% of the freebies. Last season the Hoyas were just 3-21 SU away the last 2 seasons with from home with 16 of those 21 losses coming by at least 7 points. We like WVU by double digits here.

#306586 ASA PLAY ON UT Rio Grande Valley -6.5 over Stephen F Austin, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - UTRGV continues to slide under most people’s radars but this team is very good. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS covering by an average of more than 10 PPG. They have played a very tough schedule already traveling to play @ Nebraska, @ Creighton, and @ Wisconsin. They took the Badgers to the wire losing 87-84 and UTRGV had the ball down 1 point with less than 15 seconds remaining in the game. The Vaqueros are averaging 87 PPG, they rank 65th in the nation in eFG%, make 12 three pointers a game (9th in the nation), and hit 76% of their FT’s and keep in mind that’s vs the 81st most difficult SOS to date. Stephen F Austin has played a much easier slate (292nd) and they still have 3 losses. All 3 of their wins vs D1 opponents have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower and this team really struggles on offense. Take out their 2 games vs non Division 1 opponents and the Lumberjacks are averaging only 59 PPG. They rank 329th in offensive efficiency, make only 56% of their FT’s, and turn the ball over at a ridiculous rate (27.4% which is 363rd out of 364 teams). SFA is going to have a hard time keeping up in this game so we’ll lay the points with UT Rio Grande Valley playing in just their 3rd home game of the season.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Montana +3 over South Dakota State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Montana is on a 3 game winning streak, they are 5-0 at home this year and they’ve been at home since November 19th so more than 2 full weeks. The Grizzlies are coming off a very good 24-12 record a year ago and they are really tough to beat at home winning 21 of their last 24 games in Dahlberg Arena. They’ve only been a home dog 1 time since the start of the 2022 season and the Griz won that game outright. They’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far (43rd SOS per KenPom) and their 3 losses have come vs high level teams all on the road (Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah State). This is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up. Tonight they face a very young South Dakota State team who is playing their first true road game of the season. The Jackrabbits start 2 freshmen and have 4 freshmen in their top 7 all playing their first true road game of their careers. They have a slightly better record (7-2) but they’ve also played the much easier schedule (236th per KenPom). While Montana has been at home for a few weeks, SDSU played 3 games in the Cayman Islands last week, came home for 1 game vs Dakota Wesleyan on Monday and now 2 nights later on the road again @ Montana. The last time these 2 faced off @ Montana was 2 years ago and in a pick-em game, the Grizzlies rolled to an easy 81-56 win. We don’t expect a blowout here, but we do like the home team to get the win.

#680 ASA PLAY ON UConn -2 over Baylor, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - You can bet UConn will come out with some serious effort here at home after going 0-3 in their tourney in Hawaii a week ago. Head coach Danny Hurley was very upset with his team (and refs!), especially on the defensive end. They’ve heard all week how they a program in decline, don’t deserve to be in the top 25 poll, etc… This is their chance to save face, so to speak, vs a solid team. Baylor has 2 losses on the season and in their only true road game this season, the Bears lost by 38 points @ Gonzaga. They’ve really struggled on the defensive end ranking 355th defending the arc (out of 364 teams) and 331st in defensive efficiency. Being poor on that end of the court makes is really tough to win on the road. They are facing a Connecticut offense that has been very good ranking in the top 10 nationally in both eFG% and offensive efficiency. The Huskies have won 25 straight home games and only twice during that stretch were they favored by single digits at home. 23 of their last 25 home games UConn has been favored by at least 10 points. We’re getting value here due to their struggles in Hawaii. Baylor, despite their success, has won only 5 of their last 14 road games dating back to the last month of the 2022/23 season. We like UConn at home Wednesday night.

#658 ASA PLAY ON Clemson +2 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Tigers as a slight home favorite here so we like the value on Clemson as a dog. Kentucky has won their first 7 games of the season with 6 of those coming at home and another, vs Duke, on a neutral site in Atlanta. This will be their first true road game of the season which is always a tough spot especially vs a very good team like Clemson. Six of Kentucky’s seven wins have come vs teams ranked outside the top 100 so their strength of schedule, besides Duke, hasn’t been great. The Tigers are 7-1 on the season with their lone loss @ Boise State. They are 5-0 at home and they’ve been really tough to beat in Littlejohn Coliseum winning 35 of their last 41 games in their own arena. The Kentucky offense is averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on the season, however they’ve faced mainly poor defensive teams (5 of 7 ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they Cats have gotten the pace they want (fast – ranked 4th in adjusted tempo) vs most of the teams they’ve played. That changes here. Clemson will play this game at their much preferred slower pace and they really make opponents work on defense allowing a shot every 19.4 seconds (3rd longest in the nation). The Tigers rank 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held every opponent but 1 to less than 70 points. While we don’t expect Clemson to shut down this UK offense, they will do enough defensively to slow them down a make them uncomfortable in the half court. The Tigers offense is good enough to stay in this one as well ranking in the top 20 nationally in 3 point FG% and they shoot over 50% from the field at home. Kentucky has a huge game on deck vs Gonzaga so they could be peaking ahead. We like Clemson to pull the upset at home.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Colorado -16 over Pacific, Monday at 9 PM ET - Pacific comes in with a 5-4 record but their wins have come against 3 teams ranked 234th or lower and 2 non Division 1 teams (Jessup & Life Pacific). In their 3 games so far this season vs top 200 opponents, they’ve lost all 3 by an average of 21 points. In their 2 games vs very similar competition to tonight’s opponent Colorado, they lost by 22 vs Arkansas and by 35 vs Missouri. The Tigers are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in eFG% and 331st in 3 point FG% and that’s 4 of their 7 Division 1 opponents ranking outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency. We think Pacific will struggle offensively vs the Buffs on the road here. Colorado should have an edge to them tonight after getting blown out by a very good Iowa State team in their most recent game last Wednesday. The Buffs beat UConn the night before that loss so they may have been a bit flat. CU has already faced 3 teams at home in a similar rating range as Pacific (Eastern Washington, Cal State Fullerton, and Harvard) and they won those games by 20, 30, and 22 points respectively. The Buffs have averaged 84 PPG in their 4 home games and we don’t see Pacific keeping up in this game.

#782 ASA PLAY ON Wichita State -1.5 over Minnesota, Thursday at 12 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral court in Kissimmee, Florida. Minnesota has pretty much a new roster from last season (4 new starters and 5 of their top 7 players are new) and they have yet to play a game away from Williams Arena in Minneapolis. Despite playing all home games, this Gopher team hasn’t impressed. They lost at home vs North Texas and have a number of very close wins vs inferior competition. They beat Central Michigan (5th rated team in the MAC) on Monday by 3, beat Nebraska Omaha (8th rated team in the Summit League) by 4, and they came from double digits down to beat Yale by 3 points. Despite playing at home, Minnesota has not shot the ball well at all ranking 235th in eFG%, 244th in 3 points percentage (30%) and they make only 63% of their FT’s. We don’t expect those numbers to improve in their first road game vs a Wichita State team that is 5-0 and ranks in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and top 45 defending the arc. The Shockers have played a formidable schedule to date with 4 of their 5 opponents ranked inside the top 150. Minnesota has played only 2 teams ranked inside the top 150 (1-1 record) and 3 teams ranked outside the top 200. Wichita brings 3 starters back from last year and 60% of their minutes return which we factor in heavily early in the season. They don’t turn the ball over very much (12% which is 4th least in the country) and they get to the FT line a lot (26% of their points from the stripe). When they get there, they make them at a 76% clip which could be huge in what is projected to be a close game. Unlike Minnesota, the Shockers have played 2 games away from home this year beating Western Kentucky (4th rated team in CUSA) by 7 and they rolled a solid St Louis team by 25 points in Kansas City. The Gophs are the worst team in the Big 10 this year and we like Wichita to get the win and cover early on Thanksgiving Day.

#618 ASA PLAY ON Samford -10.5 over North Dakota State, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - We’re not sure NDSU can keep up on the road in this one. Samford averages over 90 PPG and their lowest point total this season was 75 and that was an 8 point loss @ Michigan State who ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have scored at least 86 points in every other game this season. At home this offense has been lethal averaging 96 PPG in their last 21 home games dating back to the start of last season. In this game they are facing a North Dakota State defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 49% in their 3 road games this season, they rank 313th in defensive efficiency and 277th in eFG% allowed. On offense the Bison are not a great shooting team ranking outside the top 200 in both 2-point FG% and 3-point FG%. NDSU has hit only 32% of their triples this season yet they take a lot of them averaging 28 three point attempts per game. We don’t see them having success from deep here vs a Samford defense that has held their opponents to just 28% from beyond the arc. The way to beat the Bulldogs is by creating turnovers and hitting the offensive glass, two weaknesses of Samford. The problem in this game is, NDSU is last in the nation at creating turnovers and they aren’t a good offensive rebounding team (319th). Samford’s Hanna Center is a very tough place to play and long travel for NDSU. The Bulldogs have won 41 of their last 44 home games and they pick up an easy win tonight.

#879 ASA PLAY ON Auburn -3.5 over Iowa State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game is being played on a neutral site in Hawaii.  Both teams step into this game undefeated but Auburn has tested themselves early playing the much tougher schedule.  The Tigers have already faced 4 teams in the top 190 including Houston (#1 team in the nation per KenPom) and they topped the Cougars in Houston.  ISU, on the other hand, has faced the 364th most difficult schedule (per KenPom) with the teams they’ve faced so far ranking 364th, 360th, and 235th.  All those games were at home as well so the Cyclones will be playing in unfamiliar territory for the first time this season.  Despite playing a tough slate to date, Auburn ranks in the top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They put up 74 points in a Houston defense that hasn’t allowed more than 45 points in any of their other games.  The Tigers lead the nation in eFG% and 2 point FG% while averaging 87 PPG.  Auburn has better eFG% numbers on both offense and defense despite the fact that ISU’s 3 opponents have a combined record of 0-14 vs Division 1 teams this season.  We’ll lay the small number with Auburn on Monday.

#838 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -6.5 over Oregon State, Monday at 8 PM ET - Rough situation for Oregon State who is playing their first road game of the season after losing at home to archrival Oregon on Thursday. The Beavers were 6.5 point home dogs in that game and lost 78-75 blowing a double digit 2nd half lead in the process. Now they head out on the road where they have a terrible 2-31 SU record in true road games since the start of the 2021 season. Their opponent, North Texas, is a veteran team with an 8 man rotation of all juniors and seniors. This is a tough team that plays a slow pace and outstanding defense (38th in 3 point FG defense & 52nd in defensive efficiency). The Mean Green are 4-1 on the season and they’ve played a much tougher schedule than OSU (79th SOS compared to 320th for Oregon State). They are undefeated at home and have won 38 of their last 46 games at the Super Pit in Denton, TX. UNT has better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, they shoot the 3 at a higher percentage, they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (14th) and they turn teams over at a 21% rate (67th). They already have a win @ Minnesota and this is a big time home game for the Mean Green. Lay it.

#842 ASA PLAY ON Arizona -1 over Duke, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Arizona is coming off a 103-88 loss at Wisconsin but they’ve had a full week to let that stew and get ready for this game vs Duke. In that loss, the Wildcats shot 38% from field, 17% from 3 (4 of 23) and made 28 of 40 FT’s. Wisconsin shot 48% overall, 44% from 3 and 41 of 47 FT’s. Arizona destroyed the Badgers on the boards 44 to 27 and we expect them to have the advantage on the glass again tonight but they should shoot MUCH better at home. Duke is a very young team with 3 freshmen in their starting line up and they are playing their first true road game of the season. Their only game this season played away from Cameron Indoor Stadium was vs Kentucky in Atlanta and the Blue Devils lost that game 77-72. Kentucky is solid but they have an entirely new roster and a new head coach so they are figuring things out early in the season. Duke now makes they long travel west for the first road game vs an Arizona team that is almost unbeatable at home winning 51 of their last 54 home games. Not that Duke is looking past Arizona, but they do have another huge game on deck vs Kansas. We think this inexperience Blue Devil team will be very good but may take some time to figure things out, especially on the road early in the season. Zona has had a week to think about their poor effort @ Wisconsin and we like them to get the home win and cover on Friday night.

#818 ASA TOP PLAY ON Southern Indiana +3.5 over South Dakota, Friday at 8 PM ET - Tough spot for South Dakota who just played @ Western Michigan on Wednesday night and now on the road 2 days later. They beat WMU 80-76 thanks in part to 8 more FT’s made but the Coyotes got creamed on the boards 53 to 38. The Broncos shot only 18% from deep (4 of 22) so with that stat and the extra FT’s made, South Dakota was a bit fortunate to come away with the win. They were favored by 2.5 on the road in that game and now 2 nights later they are favored by 4 (opening number) on the road vs a team that is power rated higher than Western Michigan. We can’t expect a team that has been terrible on the road (South Dakota is 5-24 SU on the road since the start of the 2022 season) to not only win back to back road games, but win this one by more than 4 points. Southern Indiana has had a full week off to get ready for this one and while they are 1-4 on the season, some of their losses have been pretty solid if that’s a thing. They lost @ DePaul (who is currently undefeated) in OT and lost to a very solid mid major program, Bucknell, also in OT. This is just their 2nd home game of the season and the Eagles have to feel they have a great shot to get a home win here. Neither team has been good defensively (both outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency) but Southern Indiana has shot the 3 ball much better (37% to 29% for South Dakota) and they are the better FT shooting team (74% to 65% for South Dakota). We look for this veteran USI team (6 upperclassmen in their top 7) to pick up a win tonight and even if they don’t, we can’t see South Dakota winning this one by margin. Take the points.

#728 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Pick'em over Memphis, Thursday at 10 PM ET - This is a tough situational spot for Memphis. They make the long travel to San Francisco, and they leave right after this game for Hawaii and face National Champ UConn on Monday in the Maui Invitational. On top of that this is a late start at 10 PM ET. The Tigers may not be fully focused here and if not, they will lose this game in our opinion. The Dons were a solid 23-11 last season and they bring back a bunch of their key players from that team with 3 starters back and 4 of their top 6 scorers from last season. Nearly 60% of their minutes return. This is a huge game for USF vs a national brand type team with Memphis coming to town so this veteran squad (4 seniors in the starting line up) will be fully focused. Memphis is talented but they bring nearly a completely new team to the court this season with 7 of their top 8 players coming from the transfer portal. We think this team will have their ups and downs with a below average coach, Penny Hardaway, at the helm. Especially in tough situations like this. Memphis has hit nearly 50% of their 3 point shots so far this season and that has to regress on the road vs a very good defensive team. USF ranks 23rd in eFG% allowed and in the top 70 in defensive efficiency (ranked in top 40 in defensive efficiency last season). While this is not the Dons actual home court (Golden State Warriors home court in San Francisco) they do play here a few times during the season so they are used to this venue. In games played at their home court and here last season USF was 15-2 with their only 2 losses coming vs Gonzaga (27-8 record last season) and St Mary’s (26-8 record last season). We think San Francisco has a solid coaching edge here as well with Chris Gerlufsen sporting a very good 47-15 record in his 3 seasons here. We’ll call for USF to get the outright win on Thursday.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana -4.5 over Rice, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - Louisiana has played one of the tougher schedules in the nation early in the season. They faced the MAC favorite Kent and lost by 4 and faced Houston (a top 5 type team) on the road on Saturday and got destroyed. It was a tough spot for ULL as Houston was coming off a rare loss vs Auburn so the Cougs were out for blood. Off that embarrassing loss, we look for Louisiana to play very well at home tonight. Rice, on the other hand, has played one of the easiest schedules to date facing 3 teams ranked outside the top 280 and 2 of those opponents rank outside the top 300. The one good team they faced was Florida State and they lost that game in Houston, This will be the Owls first road game of the season. Rice is a team with a new coach and mainly new players with only 20% of their minutes returning for last season. Only 1 returning player in their top 6 and with the players learning a new system, we expect their first road game to be a tough one. The Ragin Cajuns were the 5th best team in the Sun Belt last year and they return 50% of their minutes from a year ago. Their coaching staff is also stable with head coach Bob Marlin returning for his 16th season and he’s been very successful with a career record of 492-322 at Sam Houston and ULL. The Cajun Dome is a very tough place for visitors to win with Louisiana winning 26 of their last 29 games here. Rice hasn’t shot the ball well ranking 237th in eFG% and 254th in adjusted efficiency despite facing 3 defenses already this season ranked outside the top 200 in efficiency. And those games were at home. We look for them to struggle offensively and a hungry Louisiana team to get the home win and cover.

#306625 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rio Grande Valley +19.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Badgers left it all on the court Friday night when they topped #9 Arizona 103-88. It was an all-in game for Wisconsin after getting embarrassed last year @ Arizona. It was a game they had circled and played about as well as they could play shooting almost 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc and they made a whopping 41 FT’s in the game (40% of their total points). Now just a few nights removed from that court storming win, they face a no-name Texas Rio Grande Valley team that is actually pretty good. They lost at Nebraska by 20 but the Huskers made 19 more FT’s in the game and it was a misleading final as it was just a 4 point margin with under 5:00 to play. TRGV also gave #14 Creighton all they could handle on the road losing by just 13 despite a 20 point deficit at the foul line. This team likes to shoot 3’s and they make nearly 12 per game (19th nationally). The Vaqueros (whatever that is) have some momentum after losing the 2 games discussed above and enter this one off 3 straight wins. They are a veteran team that goes 9 to 10 deep with 7 of those players being upperclassmen. Wisconsin’s will travel to West Virginia later in the week to play in a tournament that includes Pitt, LSU, and UCF and we just don’t see them being completely focused on this game. Badgers win but don’t cover this big number.

#664 ASA PLAY ON Towson -3 over James Madison, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Love this spot for a veteran Towson team.  They have 2 losses this season, both to top 60 teams on the road.  They lost @ St Mary’s by 7 and just lost @ South Carolina by 26 points as a 7 point dog so a very poor performance.  Now they get a chance to bounce back Saturday at home vs a James Madison team that is going through massive changes.  The Dukes lost their head coach Mark Byington to Vandy and they return only 11% of their minutes from last season.  New head coach Preston Spradlin is dealing with 7 new transfers in their top 8 players.  JMU is 2-1 on the season but in their only road game they lost by double digits at Norfolk State who ranks outside the top 200 per KenPom.  Towson has a huge edge in continuity which is extremely important early in the season as most teams are trying to mesh their new players (see James Madison).  The Tigers return 4 starters from last season and 82% of their minutes (3rd most in the country) are back from a team that was 20-14 last year.  Towson struggled shooting in their 2 losses but those were vs high level defensive teams both ranked in the top 75 in defensive efficiency so far this year and for the season last year.  Now they are in a comfortable spot at home facing a JMU defense that currently ranks 355th in eFG% defense vs Ohio & Norfolk State so we look for the Towson offense to look much better on Saturday.  The Dukes have relied heavily on the 3 point shot early in the year with 62 attempts in their 2 games vs Division 1 opponents.  Now they are on the road vs a Towson team that defended the arc very well last season and it allowing just 27% from deep this year vs St Mary’s and South Carolina.  Always more difficult so shoot well on the road in an unfamiliar arena and JMU should struggle.  We like Towson to play with a purpose after a loss earlier this week and they cover this short number at home where they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games.

#858 ASA PLAY ON Furman -3.5 over Tulane, Friday at 7 PM ET - Head coach Bob Richey has built a very solid program at Furman in his 7 years at the helm. The Paladins have won at least 20 games in 5 of his 7 seasons and he’s never had a losing season. This year he has some continuity with 53% of his minutes returning and 4 of the 5 starters are returning players from last season. Furman is 3-0 on the season topping 2 teams ranked in the top 200 including a win @ Belmont one of the better mid major programs in the country. Tulane, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked in the top 300 this season. They are 3-0 playing all home games topping Louisiana Christian, UL Monroe (ranked 328th) and Alcorn State (ranked 355th). This is a huge step up on competition for the Green Wave and on the road for the first time. On the other hand, Furman has already played and beaten 2 teams that are in the same range (power rating) as Tulane. The Green Wave only have 9% of their minutes back from last year and only 1 starter this year that played any type of role on last year’s team and he was a limited reserve in 2023. This is head coach Ron Hunter’s 6th year at Tulane and he has had only 1 winning season. Furman is a tough place to play as the Paladins have won 29 of their last 34 home games. Tulane has been a terrible road team with a 16-44 SU on the road since start of the 2019 season. This number is light in our opinion and we’ll take Furman to win and cover at home Friday night.

#697 ASA PLAY ON Wyoming +22.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Tech is 2-0 on the season playing 2 teams ranked outside the top 280 winning both games easily. In their most recent game they faced a Northwestern State team ranked outside the top 300 and won by “just” 21 points despite hitting over 51% of their shots and making 22 FT’s with their opponent making only 37% and just 13 FT’s. The Red Raiders largest lead in that game was 23 points and now they are laying that number (-22.5 to -23.5 range) vs a Wyoming team is far superior to Tech’s first 2 opponents. Tech has hit a ridiculous 63.3 eFG% in their first 2 games vs 2 poor defensive teams and that should change on Wednesday. Wyoming has been very good defensively in their first 2 games allowing an eFG% of just 39%. New Cowboy head coach Sundance Wicks was a UWGB last year and they were very good defensively ranking 111th in eFG% allowed along with ranking in the top 15 in 3 point FG% defense. Wicks is an outstanding coach as he took a Green Bay team that was 3-29 and led them to a winning record in his only season at the helm before coming back to lead his alma mater. He was named the Joe B. Hall National coach of the year for is efforts last season. Wyoming is a veteran team that starts 5 seniors and they have solid shooters on the outside (hitting 50% of their 3’s this year) and the size inside to hang around in this game. Too many points here and we’ll side with Wyoming.

#633 ASA PLAY ON Texas State +15.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - TCU returns only 8% of their minutes from last season as they are adjusting to a completely new line up made up of mainly transfers. The Horned Frogs start 4 new transfers and their top 5 scorers after 2 games are all transfers. Their key newcomers have come from programs like UW Green Bay, Wyoming, Old Dominion, and UNC Wilmington so while all solid players, we’re not talking about high level additions from other Power 5 teams. The influx of new players can make it tough early in the season as they adjust to playing with different teammates, especially tough trying to cover big numbers. Both of TCU’s opponents have been ranked outside the top 220 and in their most recent game the struggled a bit with Florida Gulf Coast (ranked 222nd) in a game that was a one possession game midway through the 2nd half. The Frogs pulled away late and won by 17 which landed right on the number (-17). Now they face a Texas State team that is ranked nearly 100 spots higher than FGCU but the number is close to the same (-15.5). Texas State returns 60% of their minutes (4 of 5 starters played for this team last season) from a team that struggled early last year but played really well down the stretch winning 10 of their last 14 games almost topping James Madison (lost by 5) in the Sun Belt Championship game (JMU beat Wisconsin in the 1st round of the NCAA tourney). The Bobcats have carried that momentum into this season with 2 easy wins and this is a huge game for them vs an in-state big boy. We wouldn’t be surprised if TCU is peaking ahead to their huge game vs Michigan on Friday. Texas State keeps this fairly close. Take the points.

#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah.

#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points.

#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points.

#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Houston -24 over Longwood, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - We know the Cougs will come out with their pants on fire so to speak as they are off a terrible, embarrassing 28 point loss in the Big 12 Championship game vs ISU, their worst loss since 2014. That provides great motivation for a team that is already one of the top few teams in the country. Houston’s defense should completely shut down this Longwood offense. The Cougars rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% allowed, and 3rd at creating turnovers. That’s all bad news for Longwood who doesn’t shoot it very well (240th in eFG%), doesn’t make many 3’s (5.6 per game – 330th nationally) and turns the ball over at a high rated. In fact, the Lancers ranked dead last in the Big South Conference in offensive turnover rate despite the fact the conference doesn’t have a single team ranked inside the top 75 creating turnovers. Much is made of Houston’s defense, but their offense ranks in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and they should have plenty of extra possession on the offensive glass and creating turnovers. Longwood’s defense ranks outside the top 200 in eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Houston will put up points here. We highly doubt Longwood gets out of the 40’s in this game which means Houston won’t have to go crazy offensively to cover this game. Low to mid 70’s for the Cougs should be enough to get the cover.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll.

#755 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Samford, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET - One of the most popular underdogs in the first round is this Samford team. Because of that we’re getting some really solid line value with the Jayhawks here. We understand Kansas will be without leading scorer McCullar, however he’s been out for half of their last 12 games so it’s not as if they now have to learn how to play without him. The Jayhawks beat 2 tourney teams down the stretch without him topping Baylor and Texas. We get a high level program in KU coming off a terrible outing in the Big 12 tourney as they lost by 20 points to Cincinnati. They played that game without McCullar and starting center Dickinson (18 PPG / 11 RPG) but he is back in the line up for this game. We’re sure the KU players are hearing all of the rumblings about a possible upset, etc… and coming off a bad loss we look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this one. If they do, we know Kansas is obviously more talented than Samford. The Bulldogs were an exciting, fast paced team that won the SoCon this season. They faced 2 top 100 teams the entire season and lost to Purdue by 30 and lost to VCU, who did not make the tourney, by 10. They are a small team (349th in height) facing a big KU team that should completely dominate them on the boards. Samford does shoot the 3 ball well, however their 3 point shot percentage drops off drastically when they are away from home (43% at home and 34% on the road). They’ll need to be red hot from deep to have a shot here. In order for a team with lesser talent to have a shot to beat a heavyweight, they need to limit possessions and shorten the game. Giving the superior talent more possessions just gives them a chance to pull away. Samford is a go, go, go team with the 14th highest adjusted tempo in CBB. We don’t think that serves them well here. Take Kansas on Thursday night.

#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points.

#738 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +1 over Oregon, Thursday at 4 PM ET - Like this bounce back spot for South Carolina after they were trounced by 31 points in the SEC tourney by Auburn. Teams in the NCAA tourney who entire off a 20+ point loss have done very well with a 23-10 ATS record. Because of that loss the Gamecocks have had an extra day to prepare while Oregon had to play 3 games in 3 days (Thurs – Sat) to win the Pac 12 tourney and grab an automatic bid, the only way they were getting into the Dance. After that grueling run in the conference tourney the Ducks now have to travel to the east coast (Pittsburgh) and play on Thursday which isn’t ideal. South Carolina was undervalued all season (23-10 ATS record) and they continue to be entering the NCAA tourney. Oregon was 16-18 ATS this year and because they made a solid run in their conference tourney this is close to a pick-em game when we feel the Gamecocks should be a larger chalk. These 2 teams played similar strength of schedule this year and South Carolina had better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. SC ranks in the top 85 in FG% allowed and Oregon ranks outside the top 300 in that key category. Both protect the ball well but South Carolina is the better rebounding team which should lead to extra possessions. Against good competition, the Gamecocks also held the edge with a 6-5 record vs Quad 1 teams and 11-5 overall vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents combined. Oregon had a losing record vs Quad 1 opponents and a losing record vs Quad 1 & 2 teams combined. South Carolina is the better team and in a better situation in basically a pick-em game. We’ll take it.

#743 ASA PLAY ON Morehead State +12 over Illinois, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - This line opened Illinois -13 and has dropped to -12 so we’ve lost a little line value but still like Morehead State in this spot. Illinois just completed a 3 games in 3 days situation to win the Big 10 tourney on Sunday. Now playing on Thursday as a heavy favorite is not ideal and it very well could be a letdown spot for the Illini after winning the conference tourney. Tough to lay this many points with a defense that simply hasn’t been good vs an offense that can shoot the ball. The Illini defense ranks 98th in efficiency on the year per Bart Torvik, however since February 1st they rank 158th in that metric. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their last 13 games. Morehead ranks 35th in the country in eFG% and they hit their 3’s at a 36% rate. They should be able to hit some 3’s in this game vs an Illinois defense that ranks 259th defending the arc. The Eagles are also a veteran team that has good size and rebounds the ball well (top 85 in both offensive and defensive rebounding). They also can get it done defensively holding opponents to 39% from the field this season which ranks as the 6th best mark in the nation. Lastly, Morehead will try and slow this game to a crawl as they rank 335th in adjusted tempo and they’ll do everything they can to keep Illinois out of transition. The Eagles have the recipe to keep this game closer than most think and we’ll take the hefty points.

#726 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina -24.5 over Wagner, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET - This is a really rough situation for a Wagner team that played in Dayton on Tuesday night and now must take the court again just 40 hours later in Charlotte. Wagner is lowest rated team per KenPom in this NCAA tourney and they are extremely thin with only 7 scholarship players. They are a terrible shooting team (ranked 358th in FG%) but shot lights out on Tuesday night in their win over Howard. The Seahawks shot 53% in the game (14% higher than their season average of 39%) and they made 47% of their 3’s (15% higher than their season average of 32%). On top of that, because they are so thin they had 3 starters play the full 40 minutes. We look for them to come back down to earth quickly on offense now facing a UNC defense that ranks 6th nationally in efficiency and is coming off a terrible performance vs NC State in the ACC Championship game (an 8 point loss as a 10 point favorite). The Heels will be ready to play after that embarrassing performance last Saturday. UNC averages 82 PPG (23rd nationally) and they are facing a Wagner offense that averages only 63 PPG (345th nationally) despite play in the NEC where over half of the teams rank below 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner went on a nice run in the NEC tourney to get to the Dance but let’s not forget they finished in 6th place with a losing record during the regular season in that league which ranks as the 2nd worst conference in college hoops. The Heels will have the home crowd here in Charlotte and should dominate from the outset. Blowout here.

#730 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +1.5 over Michigan State, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Bulldogs as a slight favorite so we’ll take the value with Mississippi State. Sparty comes in winning just 2 of their last 7 games and those wins weren’t overly impressive by 4 points at home vs Northwestern who played without 2 starters and in the Big 10 tourney vs Minnesota who tanked at the end of the season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Michigan State only had one quad 1 win in conference play and that was a home win vs Illinois. They weren’t a great shooting team (11th eFG% in the Big 10) and while they do shoot it well from 3, the Bulldogs defend the arc as well as anyone in this tourney ranking 6th nationally allowing just 29%. The Spartans, normally a good rebounding team, are not adept in that stat this season ranking outside the top 140 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That’s where Mississippi State can take advantage in this game to get some extra possessions as they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation (21st). Mississippi State has high level wins over 2-seed Tennessee (twice) and 4-seed Auburn in SEC play. Both high level defenses facing off here, both in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, so no big edge on that side of the ball. Much is made of Izzo in March and while he is a great coach, we think that’s overblown. Much of that success was many years ago. In fact Michigan State hasn’t made it past the first weekend in 5 of the last 7 NCAA tournaments. We like the Bulldogs to win this game so we’ll take the point.

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -8 over USC, Thursday at 3 PM ET - Great line value here with the Wildcats. They were just favored @ USC in the regular season finale by 7.5 and now only laying 8.5 on a neutral. That’s because they lost that game @ USC and in embarrassing fashion 78-65. It was a flat spot for the Wildcats on the road after they had just clinched the Pac 12 title a few days earlier with a 23 point win over UCLA. It showed as Arizona was flat shooting just 39% and hitting only 29% from deep while producing their lowest point total of the entire season. This team was hoping to get another shot at USC and now they get that chance and you can bet Zona is ultra motivated. Not only because of that loss but they are also fighting for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. We like the way USC has been playing over the last few weeks winning 5 of their last 6 games but this is a rough situation for the Trojans. While they have been playing better this is still a team that finished with an 8-12 Pac 12 record and had a negative adjusted efficiency margin in conference play. They shot 50% in their opening round win over Washington yesterday (80-74 final) and they also hit 50% of their shots at home vs Arizona last week. Now they face a motivated Cats team that lead the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and you can bet USC won’t be shooting lights out in this game. Zona ranks in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency while USC ranks outside the top 80 in both. The Cats had an average winning margin of +17 points in league play while USC had a dead even PPG margin. 12 of Arizona’s 15 conference wins came by double digits! Again, we like how the Trojans have been trending but we can’t pass on this line value with one of the top teams in the country who will be extremely motivated.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number.

#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -1.5 over Boston College, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Hmmm? Miami enters this game with 9 straight losses, facing a BC team that beat them twice this year yet the Canes opened as a favorite? Strange line and we agree Miami should be laying points in this one. These 2 faced off just last week and BC pulled the upset @ Miami. The Canes lost starting G Pack about 15 minutes into that game and he didn’t return. He didn’t play in the regular season finale @ FSU but we’re hearing there is a chance he plays here. This is a winning Miami program that simply has had a poor season. Entering the year they had a 29-9 SU record in ACC play the previous 2 seasons, they won the ACC last year, and they went to the Final 4. They returned 3 starters and some key reserves from that team along with head coach Larranaga who has nearly 1,200 career wins. They were expected to have a very good season but finished just 6-14 in ACC play. We expect them to play well in this tourney with new life and shot to make the NCAA tourney if they run the table. The Canes have a veteran post season team and played pretty well against the top teams in the ACC taking North Carolina to the wire twice (lost by 3 & 4 points), beat Clemson, and took Wake Forest to OT on the road where the Deacs were 16-1 this season. While Miami is a winning program that simply had a poor season, BC is not used to winning. They are 17-14 this year but haven’t had a winning season since 2018. In ACC play they finished 8-12 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in league play facing each of the top 4 teams only one time (all losses). We don’t think BC can beat this rejuvenated Miami team 3 times in one season. Lay the small number on Tuesday.

#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Thomas +3.5 over South Dakota State, Monday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have these 2 teams rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is absolutely with St Thomas in our opinion. The reason SDSU is favored by 3 points here is they beat St Thomas in both games this season and won the Summit League with a 12-4 record although both of these teams finished 20-12 overall. If we take a closer look at their match ups this year, both games went to the wire with SDSU winning by 1 and 5 points. Statistically the Jackrabbits shot lights out but still struggled to pull away and win by margin. SDSU hit well over 50% in both games and combined to make a ridiculous 57% of their shots in those games including almost 52% from deep. That’s around 10% higher than their season average and almost 18% higher than their season long 3 point average. St Thomas combined to shoot 46% in those 2 games (a little below their season average) and from beyond the arc they were 22 for 63 (35%) which is also just below their average. So SDSU shot lights out and St Thomas shot below their averages yet both games came down to the wire. The largest lead in either game was 9 points and both held that advantage at some point in each game. AEM was advantage STM despite SDSU winning the league. The Jackrabbits held a +4 FT’s made advantage in those games combined and the rebounds were nearly dead even. St Thomas had better adjusted efficiency margins in conference play despite the Jackrabbits winning the league. If South Dakota State comes back to earth shooting wise in this game, we’re confident that St Thomas will win. If not, we still expect a close game similar to the first 2 and the points are worth taking.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions facing off in Bloomington on Sunday. IU has played their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks winning 3 straight games as underdogs including 2 on the road. Their most recent home game was a solid win over a good Wisconsin team and the Hoosiers were 4 point dogs in that game. They have high level talent along their front line with Ware (former McDonald’s All American) and Reneau who are both peaking at the same time. Those 2 have combined for 97 points and 51 rebounds in those 3 consecutive wins. MSU has lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during that run coming at home on Wednesday night vs a banged up Northwestern team. That wasn’t an overly impressive 4 point win over a Wildcat team that played without 2 starters. Sparty has been a poor road team this season to say the least winning only 3 of their 9 Big 10 road games. Those 3 road wins have come against Michigan (the worst team in the conference), Maryland, and PSU who all have losing Big 10 records and have a combined mark of 18-39 in Big 10 play. MSU is ahead of the Hoosiers by only 1 game in conference play and IU actually has the better eFG% numbers on offense and defense in Big 10 games. This is also a revenge game for the Hoosiers as they lost their most recent match-up with the Spartans (Feb of 2023). Indiana was the ranked team in that match-up but it was the first home game for Michigan State since the on-campus shooting and they had an inspired game. The Hoosiers did win the last time they hosted the Spartans and we like Indiana getting points in their home finale on Sunday.

#700 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon -3.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We played against Utah on Thursday night @ Oregon State, the worst team in the Pac 12, and picked up a win with the Beavers rolling 92-85 as a 7.5 point dog. The game wasn’t even that close as OSU (5-14 record in the Pac 12) led by 17 with just 4:00 minutes remaining. That continues Utah’s terrible run on the road where they are now 1-8 both SU & ATS in Pac 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point @ UCLA. They average a whopping 11 fewer points on the road compared to at home (84 PPG at home / 71 PPG on the road) and as you might expect their efficiency drops from 1.28 PPP at home to just 1.00 on the road. It’s not only the offense that has drastically differing results on the road the Utes defense allows 67 PPG and home and 80 PPG on the road this season. They allow just 0.90 PPP at home and that rises to 1.12 PPP on the road which is just a huge difference. They’ll get an angry Ducks team on Saturday as Oregon just lost here vs Colorado (2nd best team in the conference per KenPom ratings) by a final score of 79-75. The Buffs shot lights out at 55% in that game and 47% from 3 point land yet it was a 1 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Oregon had a 3 point shot to tie with 6 seconds left but missed. That loss dropped the Ducks to 12-3 SU at home this season with their 3 losses coming vs Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, the 3 best teams in the conference. In their first meeting @ Utah the Ducks lost 80-77 despite the Utes hitting 50% of their shots and 44% of their triples and the host attempted twice as many FT’s (22 to 11). Despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Utes largest lead of the game was 6 points and it took 2 FT’s in the final seconds to salt the game away. Speaking of FT’s, now back at home we expect Oregon to have the edge at the stripe where they’ve hit 75% in league play (2nd in the Pac 12) while Utah has made only 60% of their freebies (dead last). These 2 teams have met 10 times in Oregon with the Ducks winning 9 of those games. We’ll fade the team that can’t win on the road vs the Ducks in their home finale and off a rare home loss.

#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke -4.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met on February 3rd with UNC pulling out a 93-84 win. In that game the Heels shot 50% overall and attempted 14 more FT’s and they held the Blue Devils a normally to just 8 assists and turned them over 11 times (Duke 18th in assist to turnover ratio so an aberration). Since that loss, Duke has been the better team winning 8 of 9 games with their only loss coming @ Wake Forest by 4 points. Since that they rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 1 of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. Since Feb 1 the Devils rank 4th nationally in overall efficiency behind only UConn, Tennessee, and Arizona. This team is playing at the top of their game right now and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Tar Heels have shown some struggles as of late losing 3 of their last 10 games and struggled in home wins vs Miami (won by 4 but Miami played without their starting PG) and NC State (won but trailed by double digits in the 2nd half). UNC has played only 1 road game since February 13th and they beat a struggling Virginia team in that game but scored only 54 points. Duke has a solid edge shooting the ball ranking 22nd in FG% compared to 170th for UNC (10th in the ACC in eFG%) and in the Heels 9 true road games they are shooting under 40% from the field. 5 of UNC’s 6 losses have come in road/neutral games and they average 12 PPG less on the road than they do at home. A win by Duke here moves them into a tie for 1st place with UNC and we like this red hot Devils team to get their revenge at home on Saturday vs the arch rival.

#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky.

#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii -6.5 over Cal State Northridge, Wednesday at 11:59 PM ET - After a 4 game winning streak in early February, CS Northridge is trending down losing 4 of their last 5 games and the alarming part is all 4 losses came at home. 3 of those 4 losses came by double digits and now they make the tough travel to Hawaii to take on a team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and currently ranks (per KenPom) as the 4th best team in the conference. The Rainbow Warriors currently sit in 5th place in the league and are fighting for a top 4 finish which would give them a bye in the conference tournament. During this 10 game stretch, Hawaii has faced 3 of the 4 teams that sit ahead of them in the Big West standing and they’ve beaten all 3 by 17, 8, and 8 points. They’ve played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet still have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers when compared to CS Northridge. The Matadors have a losing record in conference play and their offense has generated less than 1.00 PPP (conference games) while ranking dead last in 3 point FG%. These 2 met back in January and CSN pulled the upset beating Hawaii as a 2 point dog. The Rainbow Warriors shot just 33% in that game and made only 13 FT’s compared to the Matadors 25 out of 30 from the stripe (80%). Not to be expected here on the road from a Northridge team that ranks last in the Big West making only 67% of their freebies. The Matadors have traveled to the islands to play Hawaii 11 times in their history and lost 9 of those games. We see double digit Hawaii win late on Wednesday Night.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Illini have 1 home loss in Big 10 play and that was with Shannon (22 PPG) out. He is back and putting up huge numbers to say the least averaging 26.5 PPG over his last 7. Speaking of Shannon, he also missed the game @ Purdue, a game the Boilers won at home by 5 points. Since his return the Illini offense has taken it to another level ranking 1st nationally in offensive efficiency since February 1st putting up a 1.34 PPP. The Boilers have a 2 game lead in the Big 10 so they are fairly safe even if they lose this game. They have 3 conference losses, all the road, vs Nebraska (34th nationally), Northwestern (46th), and Ohio State (53rd) and they now face an Illinois that is far superior to all of those teams (ranked 12th nationally per KenPom). In Big 10 play, Purdue has played only 2 teams that rank in the top 40 (Wisconsin & Nebraska) and they’ve only faced one top 50 team period since February 4th. That was Michigan State on Saturday and that was just a 6 point home win. The Boilermakers have been winning some tight games with only 2 double digit wins over their last 9 games. We feel they are more than due to get bounced and playing the 2nd best team in the conference on the road is where it will happen in our opinion. The emotion will be high in Illinois’ final home game and biggest home game of the year so we’ll call for the win and cover.

#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +7 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - Too many points to give a team we feel has a shot at the outright upset. Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Houston and @ Kansas. The Horns have been a solid road team in Big 12 play with a 4-4 SU record including outright upsets @ TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They have 2 very solid veteran guards in Hunter and Abmas who both average double digits and combined to average 9 assists per game. Texas is one of the top shooting teams in the Big 12 (3rd in shooting %) and they are facing a Baylor defense that struggles on the defensive end ranking 13th in the Big 12 in FG% allowed and 276th nationally. It's going to be tough for the Bears to pull away from this talented offense with a defense that simply isn’t very good right now. Baylor is coming off a huge home game vs Kansas which turned into an 8 point win but they haven’t been unbeatable at home in league play this year. They already have 2 home losses in Big 12 play and only 1 of their 6 home wins in league play have come by double digits. Only 2 of their 10 Big 12 wins have come by 10+ points so for the most part Baylor is playing close games in conference play. This line opened -7 and if it stays there, this will be tied the largest home favorite Baylor has been in conference play this season and that should not be the case facing a balanced Texas team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The PPG margin in Big 12 play for these 2 teams is nearly identical with Baylor at +3 PPG and Texas at +1 PPG. Just too many points in game we think will go to the wire.

#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nebraska -8 over Rutgers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers just continue to roll at home and we’ll stick with that trend here. They are 17-1 SU at home with their only loss coming in non-conference play vs Creighton. In Big 10 play they are 9-0 both SU & ATS at Pinnacle Bank Arena with their average margin of victory being +14 points per game. The only 3 teams in conference play they did not beat by double digits at home were Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern. They are facing a Rutgers team that has all kiinds of trouble offensively and is just 2-6 SU on the road in Big 10 play. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in conference play in scoring, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. On the road this team is shooting just 39% and scoring 65 PPG on just 0.926 PPP. That shouldn’t change here vs a surprising Nebraska defense that is allowing 65 PPG at home on just 38% shooting. Offensively the Huskers thrive at home averaging 80 PPG and they’ve hit at least 73 points in 15 of their 18 home games this season. That’s not a good sign for Rutgers who struggles to score as we mentioned. In their first meeting this season @ Rutgers, the Cornhuskers blew a 12 point 2nd half lead and lost in OT. Nebraska shot just 38% in that game and we expect them to shoot much better at home on Sunday where their shooting percentage is 3% higher than it is in their road games. The host should also have a solid advantage at the FT line where they shoot 78% in conference play compared to 68% for Rutgers. This is a must win for Nebraska’s tourney hopes and we’ll lay it.

#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Auburn -9 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Triple motivation for the home team Tigers in this game. First, they are off a loss @ Tennessee on Wednesday night, second they lost their most recent home game vs Kentucky (their only home loss of the season, and they lost @ Mississippi State in January scoring only 58 points on 34% shooting, their worst offensive performance of the season. We look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this game at home where they average 85 PPG on 1.160 PPP. The Tigers are 13-1 SU at home (9-4-1 ATS) with all 13 of those wins coming by double digits. They simply blow teams out at Neville Arena winning by an average of score of 85-65. MSU will have a tough time bouncing back here as they put a lot of emphasis on their home revenge game vs Kentucky on Tuesday night and lost by 2 blowing a 13 point 2nd half lead. The Bulldogs are a poor road team (2-6 SU) with their only 2 road wins coming @ Mizzou and @ LSU, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. When the Dogs have had to step up in competition on the road it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve faced 4 teams in SEC play that currently sit ahead of them in the conference standing and lost all 4 by an average of 16 PPG. MSU is the worst team in the league at turning the ball over (19% of their possessions in SEC play are turnovers) and they are facing an Auburn team that creates havoc defensively (2nd in the SEC in defensive TO% and 6th nationally in defensive efficiency). We also expect the Tigers to have a huge advantage in points at the FT line as they hit 77% of their freebies in league play while MSU makes only 62% of their FT’s. We don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up here and we like the motivated Tigers to roll up an easy win, as they usually do at home.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over Marquette, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays are playing their home finale here and trying 2 catch Marquette for 2nd place in the Big East. The Golden Eagles sit 2 games ahead but they have this game and a game vs UConn yet on the docket so Creighton definitely has a chance to catch them if they win this game. It looks like Marquette will be without their starting PG Tyler Kolek (15 PPG & 7.5 APG) who is one of the top players in the Big East. He injured his oblique muscle on Wednesday and wasn’t able to practice on Thursday. When these 2 met in Milwaukee the Golden Eagles squeaked out a 72-67 win with Kolek and Sean Jones (also injured and out for this game) combined to score over 40% of Marquette’s points that night (30 points). Two keys in that game were aberrations in our opinion with Marquette, a poor rebounding team, +9 on the boards. The Golden Eagles also attempted 10 more FT’s but they score the fewest points in the league from the FT line. If those 2 things go Creighton’s way at home, like we think they will, this should be a cover. The Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home averaging 86 PPG while hitting 52% of their shots. They are 13-2 at home this year (26-4 SU since the start of last season) with their 2 losses coming by 1 & 2 points and they topped the Big East’s beat team, UConn, here by 19 points in February 20th. Marquette lost on the road to the UConn team by 28 points just 3 days prior to that. This is Marquette’s first road game since February 17th and with the Golden Eagles being without much of their firepower in this game, we just don’t think they can keep up with Creighton. Lay it.