Oklahoma City has not played their best basketball over the last two games, but they have utilized their depth to erase deficits and win in the fourth quarter. In game six they will attempt to get their first road cover in the series, which I believe will play out similar to games four and five. On a reduced spread offering from games three and four, back OKC to close out Denver. Lay the number in game six.

The Cleveland Cavaliers had their first flat performance of the postseason in game four’s loss against the Indiana Pacers. Down three games to one, they can not allow the Pacers to dictate the tempo early on like game four. Look for the Cavaliers to show the focus they did in game three, and extend this series at least one more game. Lay the big number on Cleveland.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been masterful defensively against the Golden State Warriors. Golden State has not scored over 100 points in the series yet, and Jimmy Butler put his all into game three. With Anthony Edwards coming off his best game of the series, look for other teammates to find their confidence in game four. Minnesota covers and heads back home to try and close out the series in five.

Of the remaining teams in the postseason, the predictability of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been the strongest. They swept the Miami Heat, and if they were healthy perhaps they would be going for another sweep today. Road success in their three postseason wins has been by a minimum twenty points, and an average margin of victory of 38 points. Not as lopsided here in game four, but their surge offensively continues to push them past the number.

In two of the last three playoff games from Indiana they have pulled off miracle comebacks in the final minute. Today, look for the Cavaliers in a desperation spot to play with the same intensity as game two, but to avoid a fourth quarter meltdown. With this line gaining momentum on the Cavaliers side, I expect at least two if not all three in Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and DeAndre Hunter to play tonight. Tail the Cavaliers.

For the first time since game one the Denver Nuggets are favored in their series against the LA Clippers. Typically, the home court edge pays off for the home team in game seven, but I’ll side with the Clippers here.  Look for the Clippers to not make the same mistake as game five when they came out flat at Denver. Just like the Nuggets last playoff series when they were up 3-2 against Minnesota, they fall short in game seven. Take the Clippers.

The Jimmy Butler effect is in play once again for game four now that he has been cleared. In game three I went the other way on the market reacting to Butler being out, and now will do so with him being cleared. As strong as Golden State’s overall record is with Butler in the lineup, Houston did go into Golden State and defeat them on April 6th. This is also the first time in the postseason Steph Curry has to step back on the court in a forty eight hour turn around, which has been troublesome for Curry during the regular season. Back the Rockets for the cover in game four.

The Golden State Warriors are one of the few teams prepared for a postseason injury. They’ve had role players and star players in and out of the lineup, and Jimmy Butler was a late add pre- trade deadline. At home, their role players excel and expect Steve Kerr to adjust the defense off the Rockets excellent game two. Golden State with or without Jimmy Butler gets it done in game three.

The LA Clippers had their moments in game one but could not generate enough offense after an explosive first quarter of 35 points. Defensively though they limited Denver to 44 percent shooting, in a game that saw Jamal Murray play a season high forty eight minutes. Look for Tyronn Lue to have the necessary adjustments for the Clippers to earn a split before heading back home for game three.

The Knicks have an extra aggressive spread today against Detroit. Their dominance over the Pistons spanned from 2019 until this December where they had won sixteen matchups in a row. Now that has flipped with Detroit winning the last three. Yet, the Knicks are a team I believe can flip that postseason on switch. The experience factor is one-sided over a Pistons team that I expect to be overwhelmed in game one. Take the Knicks

Having a short term memory in the play-in is suited for the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. Miami dismantled a Bulls team that had some injuries, and just was not ready in the first quarter. Atlanta this is their fourth straight season in the play-in, and have a better core of defenders to handle the hot shooting of Tyler Hero, Bam Adebayo, and even Andrew Wiggins. Take the Hawks to advance as the eighth seed in the East. 

The Dallas Mavericks are a team that if they had a bit more time together could have been dangerous. The make up of their team is versatile, but there just has not been enough time together to back on the road. Over their last five road games against Western Conference opponents they have lost by an average margin of 27 points. DeMar Derozan actually had his best game points wise against the Mavericks with 42 this season. This is likely the last instance of getting the Kings at this high of a favored spot, but take the Kings to advance to face the Grizzlies.

The Chicago Bulls were expected to fade from the possibility of a play-in when they traded away Zach Lavine. Instead their roster has sprung to the occasion and been a pleasant surprise. Miami is a team they defeated just last Wednsday by eight points, and also defeated them mid-March by five points. They’re also a team that has had consistent second half issues. Take the Bulls to defeat the Heat for the fourth time this season.

Today’s play-in spreads are competitive to top seeds that await in both the Eastern and Western Conference. That tells me that the market believes the Orlando Magic are better then their 7th seed, which may have been the case if they did not struggle with injuries all season long. This is also the third matchup in a week’s period between both teams, which I believe bodes to the advantage of the home team. Take Orlando on the spread as they solidify the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference.

A point spread that the market over reacted on slightly in my opinion is in play today with the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has the advantage with being at home since April 5th, but their offense has been out of sync. If not for a tired Knicks team in the fourth quarter yesterday, they may have lost their third game in a row. Milwaukee has also won the first two matchups against Detroit. This is a cover only position as I expect the Bucks to finish within the number.

A team that is consistently favored on the road can be tough to evaluate. The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in which they blew a 24 point fourth quarter lead. It ended their five game winning streak, but expect Minnesota to rally off that loss. Memphis may be on a winning streak, but they’ve had their issues at home losing four out of their last five. Take the Twolves to finish off their road finale with a win.

The Detroit Pistons come into today’s matchup against the New York Knicks looking to avoid three straight losses at home. That’s an occurrence that has not happened the entire season, and I expect their aggression at the onset to overwhelm the Knicks. New York is coming off a difficult overtime loss against Boston. This is also a series that has shifted. New York had won sixteen straight over Detroit, but now the tables have turned with the Pistons taking the last two matchups. They’ve get their third victory in a row over New York and cover the number.

The Houston Rockets are coming off one of their best victories of the season on Sunday, defeating the Golden State Warriors who are 20-5 over their last 25 games. They limited Steph Curry to just three points, but tonight is a fade spot off that great performance. They’ve had a mini layoff, and although the Clippers are in a back to back spot they have won five games in a row, and seven of eight. Take the Clippers as the steep favorite.

Yesterday the Boston Celtics likely completed their last meaningful game in the regular season by sweeping the New York Knicks. The on and off switch has been used often this season with the Celtics, and I expect their backups to be effected with this tonight. Orlando they are competing to be in the proper mode for the play-in games next week, and should exude that effort tonight against the Celtics. Lay the rare big number against Boston tonight.

Today the Celtics can lean on last year’s end of season matchup against the Knicks, to avoid a let down. Similar to last season the Celtics have won the first three matchups decisively by an average margin of twenty one points. At the tail end of last season though the Celtics let up against the Knicks and lost. Even if a couple of players are ruled out take the Celtics to show the focus of completing the season sweep over the Knicks.

A likely play in matchup will be on display tonight as Orlando hosts the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta actually has more to play for as they want to avoid falling into the ninth spot and being surpassed by Chicago. Yet, Orlando is starting to show upward momentum where they are 6-2 over their last eight games. Lay it with the home team Orlando Magic.

The Toronto Raptors are in a back to back spot, but concern is there with how they performed twenty four hours ago. Beyond the first quarter against Portland they scored just 19 points in the second, and were outscored by double digits in the second half. They’ve already ruled out RJ Barrett, and Scottie Barnes is questionable. Look for Detroit to play elevated basketball after consecutive losses by sixteen points or more.

Right now it is very uncommon not to see a double digit spread in the NBA. As the season winds down there is a big disparity in level of competition. The Philadelphia 76ers were one of the first teams to go down this path, and Milwaukee has adjusted to being without Damian Lillard. Take the Bucks to cruise against the 76ers.

The Portland Trailblazers overall season was better than expected, as Chauncey Billups got the Trailblazers to show improvement from a season ago. Down the stretch to close out the season though, they are struggling with four straight losses by double digits. Expect Atlanta’s pace of play to be the difference as they have one explosive second half quarter and push past the number.

It’s always a tricky spot when a West coast team returns home in their first game back from an East coast road trip. Los Angeles after botching a potential win against the Chicago Bulls, regrouped for a solid road win at Memphis. They’ll face a Houston team that’s in a back to back spot, and I expect to be the aggressor after a slow first quarter in their prior matchup against the Rockets. Take the Lakers to cover the short number.

Las Vegas will hold their first postseason tournament in college basketball in quite some time. The field will have a chance to win money, just like the tournament that was played at T-Mobile Arena in non-conference play. Arizona State is one of the more interesting teams in the field. Injuries and opt outs resulted in losing eleven out of twelve games. But there’s a hunger when it comes to prize money, and Arizona State has had a couple of weeks to practice with their new group. Take ASU plus the points against a Nebraska team that lost their focus at the end of the season.

Typically there is not a shock to a coach being fired. That was not the case for the Memphis Grizzlies as Taylor Jenkins was surprisingly let go. In their first game without Jenkins the Grizzlies lost to the Lakers, and now will face a Celtics team that is getting close to their peak playoff form abilities. Poor spot for the Grizzlies even at home, who I expect to continue to falter against high level teams. Lay it with Boston.

The Portland Trailblazers boomerang of consistency has continued. They won four straight games, but now have dropped three straight all by double digits. The Knicks are starting to adjust even minus rotation players, and can lean on their narrow one point win March 12th at Portland. Better offense this time, as the Knicks get over 120 points. Lay the number here.

The Chicago Bulls have won five out of their last six games, and got the attention of everyone with their miracle victory over the LA Lakers. Today’s spot against the Dallas Mavericks fits the bill of a letdown spot. Although Dallas has several players as game time decisions, they are ignoring being written off as a potential play in team. Take Dallas as they continue a solid road trip, and cover the spread.

Two teams coming off blowout losses will meet today as the Wizards host the Brooklyn Nets. For Washington they are coming off losing by fifty one points to the Indiana Pacers. Yet, two of their sixteen wins on the season came against the Nets, including a recent 107 to 99 victory on February 24th. Take the Wizards to complete the sweep over the Nets.

Recency bias is in play today as the Orlando Magic host the Sacramento Kings. This week we saw another west coast team in the Lakers travel to Orlando as favorites and fall to the Magic. It is the only instance out of the Magic’s last eight home games that they won and covered, as they are 1-7 ATS over their last eight home games. Sacramento now has Malik Monk and Sabonis back, and will build on their win over Portland. Take the Kings on the wrong line move.

The Phoenix Suns were embarrassed their last time out on national television again the Boston Celtics. They’ll now travel on the road against a Timberwolves team that has had their number. Seven straight wins dating back to last postseason, and they have had three full days off. Generous number based on the history and rest factor for Minnesota, take the value on the Suns.

Surviving in March Madness is one of the biggest value indicators for me moving forward in the tournament. The Maryland Terrapins won on a buzzer beater over Colorado State, and I believe play better today against Florida as a result. All the noise surrounding their Coach Kevin Willard will not be a distraction. Grab the Terrapins to hang with Florida today plus the points.

The Dallas Mavericks continue to play beat up as they will be without PJ Washington, but I’m rolling the dice with Anthony Davis being questionable. With Davis in the lineup he provided an immediate lift in a 19 point win over the Brooklyn Nets. He put in one of his best games of the season with 39 points and 9 rebounds against the Magic as a member of the Lakers. Too steep of a number here as I believe this spread should be closer to five.

The LA Clippers have had an uptick in scoring over their last four road games. They’ve produced 121, 119, 120, and 117 points. They also hindered the New York Knicks to just 95 points on March 7th. Even though the Clippers are coming in for their first game on their East coast road trip, tail LA with the Knicks in a back to back spot.

Postseason college basketball tournaments are used for team development but also a pride element for a team that let an opportunity slip in their conference tournament. Cleveland State played a sloppy game against Youngstown State from an offensive stand point, and could not convert in the final minutes. The CBI has been motivation for them, and I expect the Vikings to continue to showcase elevated basketball against an Atlantic Sun opponent. Lay the number with Cleveland State.

The Philadelphia 76ers have continued to deplete their roster as the season winds down. Kelly Oubre Jr. has not been used since subbing out in the third quarter of March 12th’s loss to the Toronto Raptors, and now Quentin Grimes who has been a big boost is also ruled out. Yet, this Philadelphia team has had time with their revamped roster and will face a Pelicans team also undermanned. Grab the value on the line move for the 76ers

The Iowa State Cyclones get an advantage today over Ole Miss over the simple fact of the ease of their first round matchup. They cruised in a twenty seven point win over Lipscomb. The victory is a confidence boost for the Cyclones that know they can play without Keshon Gilbert. On the other side Ole Miss had a battle to get by North Carolina, which can hurt a team in the round of 32. Look for the Cyclones to impress once again on a reduced favored number. Lay it with Iowa State.

The BYU Cougars weapons are strong suited for a tournament format on the front end. In a forty eight hour turn around though I favor Wisconsin. For one BYU may be a tad bit over valued based on having just one loss since early February. Wisconsin’s elevated guard play and depth will pose problems for BYU, even in the elevation of Denver. Take Wisconsin on the moneyline.

Tournament play even with a win can expose a teams flaws. Xavier had the pride to fight back against Texas, but they will not get the door left open as the Longhorns did today. The Illini are well coached under Brad Underwood and have advanced beyond round one four out of the last five years. Take the Illini here.

The New Mexico Lobos are a team that initially I believe could be a viable threat as a ten seed. The more I broke down their matchup and I have swayed to the Marquette side. The Golden Eagles have the pride of playing one last tournament with their senior class led by Kam Jones, and can refocus after losing three of four games down the stretch of the season. New Mexico one weakness is they do not counter runs well from the opponent. Expect the third wave of a run to be the dagger against the Lobos.

The Mountain West has continued their annual tradition of disappointing in March Madness with San Diego State and Utah State being blown out. Colorado State will have a chance to give a bit of relief for the conference today against Memphis. They’ve won ten straight games and can beat Memphis at their own game, led by fifth year senior Nique Clifford. Lay the short number with Colorado State.

The dominance of the SEC got fourteen teams in. With that comes the difficulty of seeding. Texas A&M has been one of the SEC teams that has a high ceiling but does not live up to their potential on the court. Look for Yale as the more overall sound team to hang around, and represent the IVY league properly. Grab the points here with the Bulldogs.

The health of a teams lineup can be misleading ATS wise to close out the season. Although the Utah Jazz have a majority of their depth available compared to the Wizards, it hasn’t changed the end result. Utah has lost ten straight games, and wants another loss as they are tied with the Wizards currently with fifteen wins. Grab the points with Washington who had a sizable lead on Utah on March 5th, and won by three points.

NIT action continues as SMU takes on Northern Iowa. The Mustangs with a bit more stronger resume would have been a tournament team. Look for SMU to use the NIT as what it is meant for, and come out angry after losing in close fashion in the ACC tournament to Clemson. Northern Iowa is also a team that lost three of their final four games, and has had a layoff of eleven days. Lay it here with SMU.

One of the toughest things to do is recover after a long winning streak is ended. The Cleveland Cavaliers won sixteen games in a row, but had that ended by the Orlando Magic 108-103. Now they travel on the road for a West coast night game against the LA Clippers, which is the first of five road games. Cavaliers may win but grab the Clippers to keep this within a possession and cover the number.

Golden State is beginning to look more and more like the Dallas Mavericks of a season ago. Who after their splash trades ended the regular season red hot and carried it over to representing the West in the NBA Finals. Golden State has won 12 of 13 games, and Denver has dropped three of five. The Nuggets also continue to have question marks around their lineup on a nightly basis. Lay it here with the Warriors.

The Oklahoma City Thunder once again showcased the strength and depth of their team in yesterday’s six point win over the Detroit Pistons. It is the second straight cover being short handed, and now the Thunder will travel to Milwaukee. Expect SGA to continue his tear as he has scored 40 or more points in three of four games, as the Bucks will play more reserves being in a back to back spot. Lay it here with the Thunder over the Bucks.

At times this season Loyola Chicago has looked like the best team in the Atlantic 10. Yet, oddsmakers have ignored a clear rest advantage in today’s matchup against Saint Louis. The Ramblers will be stepping on the court for the first time in six days, while the Billikens played yesterday. That has to do with Saint Louis controlling both matchups this year against Loyola Chicago. They defeated them by 31 points on March 1st, and had Loyola on the ropes in the first matchup late before folding in the final minutes. Take the Billikens who probably are the most confident against Loyola then any other A-10 team.

A neutral site spread that seems steep is Boise State against San Diego State. On assumption this spread would figure to be closer to a pick based on their seasons, and the fact San Diego State blew out Boise 64-47. Since the Broncos made lineup changes and won five of their final six games. Look for those lineup changes to spark Boise State as they revenge their loss to the Aztecs.

Teams on poor streaks going into conference tournaments often have new life. For South Florida they have lost seven of eight games. They’ll face a Wichita State team they played well during their two matchups, a 19 point victory and close five point loss. The Shockers may have had the big upset win over Memphis, but were susceptible just 8-10 in conference. Grab the points here with South Florida.

For the Phoenix Suns time is running out on closing the gap and sliding a spot in the play-in. They blew a golden opportunity in their last matchup against a depleted Grizzlies team and lost by two points. Overall though they have fought on their current road trip. They took Denver to overtime and covered the number against Dallas. As impressive as the Rockets are on their home floor, give me the Suns to fight within the number.

The SEC tournament will once again be hosted in Nashville, which is the city of Vanderbilt’s campus. While the Commodores may have a fan edge against Texas, they may have peaked with a three game winning streak over ranked teams in Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. They concluded the season with back to back losses where they have struggled defensively. Grab Texas to avenge their earlier loss to Vanderbilt and cover the small number. 

The Horizon League championship will take place tonight against Youngstown State and Robert Morris. Both teams had to come from behind in tough victories in their semi-finals matchups yesterday. Look for the Colonials to finish off a tremendous run where they have won 15 of 16 games. A lower spread here based on Youngstown State defeating Robert Morris by 14 points and losing by just two in the second matchup. Different outcome tonight, lay it with Robert Morris.

The Philadelphia 76ers have lost twelve out of the last thirteen games. Despite that they are sizable favorites today against the Utah Jazz, and this will likely be the last instance of the season as this big of a favorite. Utah is also short handed and typically East coast road trips take their toll on Western Conference teams. Grab the home favorite here in Philadelphia.

Of the remaining four teams in the Southern Conference bracket, it’s clear which team does not belong. VMI has a 15-18 record and finished below .500 in conference play. They will take on a Wofford team that clicked on all cylinders in yesterday’s win over East Tennessee State. The Terriers also defeated Wofford on February 19th 82-43, in one of the most lopsided conference losses of the entire season. Yet, they defeated Wofford in January, and I believe can hang around enough to cover a steep spread. Grab the points here.

The Miami Heat will host the Chicago Bulls tonight in a back to back spot. For the Heat they have been playing solid basketball lately. They pushed the Cavaliers in a close loss, took the Knicks to overtime, and had another close loss yesterday against the Timberwolves. Better competitive play I expect to be on the showcase for the Heat against a Bulls team they should have the edge on both defense and offense. Take the Heat.

Today out in the SWAC I’m expecting a slow start in the first half to hit Alabama State. It may come pre-half as the Hornets are coming off defeating Southern for the second time this season, who are the top team in the SWAC. Grambling State gave Alabama State a rare double digit loss early this season when they won by ten points. Closer game but same result as Grambling State gets the win.

The WCC conference tournament continues Friday with two matchups. All four of Pepperdine’s conference wins came against the bottom two teams in the league in Pacific and San Diego. They were 0-14 against everyone else, including today’s opponent in Portland. In both defeats they lost by twenty points, but did lead in last week’s matchup by four points at halftime. Look for the Waves to play a more complete game this time around, and cover the small number.

Conference tournaments are underway today throughout the country. Out in Las Vegas the WCC’s first game will be San Diego versus Pacific. The Toreros had just two conference wins the entire season but showed competitive spirit over their final five games. This resulted in ending their sixteen game losing streak in a victory over Portland to end the year. Pacific is also a good opponent for the Toreros who they split the season series against. Take the points here with San Diego.

A year after being the darlings of the NCAA tournament, the NC State Wolfpack have sunk to the bottom of the ACC. They are just 4-14 in league play and will not be apart of the ACC tournament. This gives a little extra incentive to the upperclassmen to finish out the season on a positive note. Their last two home games they have won against Wake Forest and Boston College. Look for good effort once again on their home floor as home underdogs against Pittsburgh.

Today, the Atlantic Sun conference tournament continues for a second day of action. Time and time again postseason play harkens the phrase a team will have a hard time defeating the same opponent a third time. Typically in college basketball that task would be reserved for a neutral court setting. Not in the Atlantic Sun as Jacksonville hosts an Eastern Kentucky team they defeated in both matchups. Expect the atmosphere on their home court to put a bit of pressure on the home team. Take the underdog here in Eastern Kentucky.

The Governors have two recent ugly losses against the worst teams in the Atlantic Sun, a 6-25 West Georgia team, and a 5-26 Bellarmine team. Yet, Austin Peay defeated North Florida by eight points in the first matchup, and a big factor for me is today’s arena. North Florida which ranks tops in college basketball in three pointers made per game, shot poorly from beyond the arc at Flowers arena in the regular season (8 for 33). Take Austin Peay as the line move went the wrong way here.

Illinois has dropped out of the Top 25, and now surprisingly has double digit losses with eleven overall. Often times in any sport once a great streak ends, the momentum fades for a mini stretch for that team. I’m expecting that here with Michigan who continues to toe the line of close wins, with their last nine wins by four points or fewer. Take the Illini here plus the points.

It has been a frustrating season for Greg Paulus and Niagara who saw their up and coming team last season, get hit hard by the transfer portal. The Purple Eagles have shown fight against top level teams in-conference, including defeating Quinnipiac. Three out of their last four losses have been by less then three points. Look for Manhattan to put an end as they build off their seven point win over Niagara earlier this season.

I’ve touched on Marist not playing up to the standards they have shown throughout MAAC conference play. The grind of playing a Friday to Sunday game catches all teams. Marist has had issues scoring in three out of their last four games where they have scored sixty four points or less. Saint Peter’s also held them to fifty six points in their first meeting. Take the underdog here with Saint Peters.

Out in the Southern Conference, Western Carolina has seen their defense suffer where opponents have scored 90 or more points in three straight games. They’ll take on a Mercer team they defeated in their first matchup 85 to 82.  That’s a confidence booster for the Catamounts, who also have incentive to be prepared for the SoCon conference tournament. This is a cemented round one matchup Friday on a neutral court in Asheville, North Carolina. Grab the points here with Western Carolina.

Out in the MEAC Coppin State travels to face Delaware State. In their first matchup the Eagles lost 84-61. Since that performance Coppin State has picked up two conference wins, and are now 5-21. From an ATS perspective take the Eagles, as Delaware State is in a mini slump ATS failing to cover in three straight. Grab the underdog with Coppin State.

Much like the Phoenix Suns the Miami Heat are untrustworthy on a game to game basis. Expect their success off a win against the Atlanta Hawks to be short lived. The Heat have not been successful in consecutive victories since January 27th. Grab the Pacers whose last three wins have been by double digits.

A team that is reeling in Sun Belt league play is Old Dominion. The Monarchs have dropped six straight games, and seven out of their last eight. Tonight they will take on a Coastal Carolina team that has shown life with two of three wins. Yet, on the season in smaller conference action one of the more lopsided games I’ve watched was the Monarchs 74-52 win over Coastal Carolina. It may not come as easy as the first matchup, but take the Monarchs to end their six game losing streak.

A pattern this season more then most is dominant conference teams have been winning as slight road underdogs. Tonight I’ll side step that notion with Sacred Heart hosting Marist. Marist sits atop the MAAC conference with a 13-3 record, but much like Michigan out of the Big Ten they win by close margins. Look for the Pioneers to take advantage and end the four game winning streak of Marist.

The Golden State Warriors are 6-1 since trading for Jimmy Butler. Post All Star break all three wins have been by 24 points or more. Today, they travel to Orlando and may get off to a slow start in the first game of the night, with the time zone change. Yet, Jimmy Butler is accustomed to facing the Magic, and Orlando has been woeful ATS against Western Conference teams. They are 0-6 ATS over their last six games against Western Conference opponents.

The Miami Heat have dropped six out of their last seven games. Throughout the down play they were favored in back to back road spots against Dallas and Atlanta. Expect that faith from the oddsmakers to come to fruition tonight, as the Heat are fully rested. It’s also a welcome home game as the Heat endured nine out of their last ten games on the road. Lay the small number here with the Heat.

Out in the Southern Conference Wofford finds themselves steep favorites over Western Carolina. Today’s spread is actually higher then their eight point road win in the first matchup against Western Carolina. The Catamounts just had their streak of six straight games of wins or losses by nine points or fewer snapped in a 21 point loss to Samford. After back to back games of giving up more then 90 points, lay it here with Wofford.

A misnomer in the betting markets is expecting a losing team to magically win facing a below average team. Lasalle has lost five straight games and has made the announcement that Coach Fran Dunphy will not return after the season. Inspirational play can be had by the Explorers but not enough to finish off the Dukes. Lay the road favorite here with Duquesne.

The Houston Rockets are coming off a down performance where they lost outright to the Utah Jazz. They are also dealing with Fred Van Vleet being out, and Dillon Brooks questionable with an illness. Still, the Bucks may be on a four game win streak but they have had to erase deficits to for comeback wins in their last three victories. Look for that dynamic to play its hand for the Rockets who are excellent on their home floor with an 18-9 record.

The Missouri Valley is one of the early conference tournaments that will begin in early March. A team like Indiana State knows their fate, but can still take advantage of finishing out the season on a positive note. They have lost four of five games but end the season with two opponents they can win against. Tonight’s opponent in Murray State they defeated by ten points as an early December 18th conference game. Take the points here with the Sycamores.

Two teams in the Atlantic Ten searching for momentum pre-conference tournament meet today in Saint Louis and Davidson. Saint Louis three weeks ago appeared as a possible threat to win the regular season conference title. They have since went 2-4 with road losses in are below .500 in league play on the road. Yet, Davidson has had issues starting and finishing games against above .500 teams in conference. Take Saint Louis here on the road.

One of the toughest spots in college basketball is bouncing back after a long streak ends. Akron had their 13-0 MAC conference streak snapped in a bad way losing by seventeen points to Ohio. This was seen coming as Akron had a couple of shaky performances prior. Look for the Zips to use that loss as a wake up call to avoid a downfall, as the MAC conference will be a one-bid conference tourney league winner only. Lay it here with Akron.

One of the strangest and strongest ATS streaks in all of college basketball lies in the SWAC with Florida A&M. They have covered eleven straight games, but are coming off a tough one point road loss on Saturday against Alabama State. Depending on offense to the level of their first matchup against Alabama A&M is where I believe the tide swings on their ATS streak. Look for the Bulldogs to play better defensively from the 95 points they surrendered in the first game. Take the home dog here with Alabama A&M.

Winning streaks that end on the road can carry extra on the spread in that first home game back. Kansas State had a strong six game winning streak before losing their last two games on the road against BYU and Utah. Expect Arizona State to fight hard to end their six game losing streak against a Wildcats team they lost by just one point at home. They also started that game with a 15 to 0 lead. Take Arizona State.

A lack of defense has hurt UMass in the Atlantic 10. They have dropped four out of their last five games, where they have declined offensively in three straight. This culminated in just a fifty one point performance against VCU. Yet, today’s matchup against George Washington has those factors included in the spread, and the market has driven it up further. Grab the points as the Minutemen had two conference victories by double digits, with one being against George Washington.

 Now at the back end of conference play opponents are seeing teams for a second time. Western Michigan after losing in the first matchup blew out the Buffalo Bulls by thirty three points on Tuesday. Look for Ball State to up their game from their thirteen point road victory over the Bulls earlier in conference. Lay the points.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a showcase of how non-conference can be meaningless from a record stand point. After rolling to a 12-2 start, which included a win over Purdue, the Nittany Lions have won just two out of their last thirteen games. Today is an two-fold opportunity for Penn State, one they can get their first win streak since January 2nd. Secondly, they can avenge a home loss to Minnesota. Expect a tighter game as Penn State disrupts one of the top ATS teams in the country.

Every team has their vulnerability stretch in conference play. Out in the MAC that has occurred with Miami Ohio as they have lost two games in a row to lower level competition in Eastern and Western Michigan. They’ll need to regroup against a Kent State team that has won five straight games. Look for Miami Ohio to reenforce the defensive edge they had in the first matchup where they limited Kent State to just 61 points. Lay the small number here with the home team.

Tonight Northern Kentucky concludes their longest road trip of the season of three straight games. That sometimes can be a disadvantage, but the Horizon League is a conference where travel is minimal as all the schools are in close proximity. Wright State is also coming off one of the top poor losses of the season losing to Green Bay. Look for a slow start from the home team as Northern Kentucky covers the road number.

The first two matchups between the Celtics and 76ers have featured covers by Philadelphia. This included a matchup to begin the month of February where the Celtics traveled to Philadelphia, and found themselves down 26 points in the late third quarter. They stormed back to win by eight points. Look for the Celtics to avoid a repeat of two weeks ago, and get a resounding win over Philadelphia.

A spread that is certainly higher today based on a team’s latest game is Austin Peay at Queens. Austin Peay not only lost to a 3-24 Bellarmine team, but were annihilated 94-68. I’ll step in and buy on the dip on Austin Peay, who lost by seven in the first matchup against Queens. Grab the points here with the underdog.

A personnel angle of mine is to attack a side I lost in the first matchup. That is in play today as LeMoyne hosts St. Francis Pennsylvania. In the first matchup I mentioned the layoff of a full week for St. Francis, and that ended up being a huge catalyst for an explosive first half for the Red Flash. Yet, LeMoyne closed the gap and had a chance to tie late. They also come in on a two game winning streak, and will seek their first three game winning streak of the season. Lay it with LeMoyne.

One of the more flat performances in-conference this season was when Cincinnati hosted West Virginia. As 6.5 point favorites it was never a contest as West Virginia led by double digits halfway through the first half, and never looked back. That ugly performance sparked the Bearcats as they have won three out of their last four games. Offensively they have scored 70 or more points in four straight games. Take the Bearcats plus the points.

Two struggling teams will meet in the Atlantic 10, as LaSalle hosts the Richmond Spiders. Richmond began conference play 2-0, and has since dropped seven out of their last nine games. Since January 4th’s win at Mass, Richmond has dropped all four road conference games by double digits. Off a win Saturday against Fordham, look for the Spiders to take advantage of a rare opportunity for consecutive wins. Grab the points with Richmond.

Out in the Atlantic Sun Jacksonville will head on the road to take on Florida Gulf Coast. The Dolphins are 3-3 over their last six games, but still are in third place in the Atlantic Sun standings. Heading into their third road game in a row, expect Florida Gulf Coast to dictate the game early. After all they erased a 24 point deficit to comeback and defeat Jacksonville in the first matchup. Lay the points here with Gulf Coast.

Lamar has been on a great streak in Southland conference play where they have won seven out of their last eight games. During that stretch the one loss came playing in a Monday road spot, after playing on the road Saturday. That is the scenario tonight against a Northwestern State team I expect to perform better offensively then the fifty nine points scored in the first matchup against Lamar. Take Northwestern State.

St. Johns comes into today’s matchup with one loss in 2025, and that was their latest game against Villanova. Prior their last loss had been on New Year’s Eve to this Creighton team. It was a low scoring affair 57-56. I expect scoring to bump up tonight, but look for Creighton to hang around closer to the original spread of 4.5. Grab the points on the spread increase.

Out in Horizon League action Cleveland State will host Youngstown State.  The Vikings have had a dip in scoring over their last handful of games, and as a result come in having lost two of three.  Look for a get right spot on their home floor as they even the season series over Youngstown State. Lay the small number.

A team that is typically atop the Big South Conference is Longwood. While they have an above .500 record overall, they are below .500 in conference play after four straight losses. Presbyterian was their first conference opponent in what was an eight point win for the Blue Hose. As desperate as Longwood is grab the points for an underdog cover from Presbyterian.

For the second time in a week the Miami Heat had a disastrous fourth quarter performance. After a nine point fourth quarter performance against Brooklyn, the Heat dipped one point lower to the Thunder with eight fourth quarter points last night. Look for the Heat to take their frustrations out on the court tonight, against a Mavericks team that exerted a lot of energy in their win over the Warriors. The Heat are also getting more comfortable and adjusted to their new trade acquisitions in Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell. Lay it with the Heat.

Out in the Ohio Valley Conference, Morehead State has dropped four out of their last five games. This includes three straight at home, and tonight they will embark on their first road game since January 25th. Yet, they scored a conference high 82 points in defeating Lindenwood on January 18th. Lindenwood has also had a steep drop off their last two games in second halves. They scored just 15 points through the first thirteen minutes in Saturday’s loss to Tennessee State, and six points through the first twelve second half minutes against UT Martin. Lay it with Morehead State. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are the worst team in the Western Conference with a 12-41 record. Yet, the Sacramento Kings are a team they have had success against. Last year they won all five matchups, and this season have covered both matchups as 6.5-7 point underdogs. This includes the most recent matchup on February 8th where the Pelicans led throughout until the fourth quarter. Take the Pelicans on the value of a nine game losing streak and Zion Williamson possibly sitting.

Loyola Maryland will host Army for their second matchup on the season. In the first matchup Army had a clear advantage for the first thirty minutes, leading by 17 points at halftime and double digits until the final three minutes. Loyola went on a furious run and missed a potential game winning three at the buzzer. Look for the Greyhounds to execute better a second time around. Take ML or -1.5