The NBA Cup semi-finals are here in Las Vegas. Both games have big favorites for a neutral site NBA game. New York has won eight out of their last nine games, with one of those a six point win over the Orlando Magic. In their latest win Jalen Brunson corrected his issues beyond the three point line by going six of nine against the Raptors. Lay the number here with the Knicks.

Being undefeated at this stage of the season in college basketball, and barely slipping into the top twenty five is a red flag in my opinion. That is the case for the Nebraska Cornhuskers who have a 9 and 0 record, and are coming off a blowout win over Creighton. Conference play can open the door on team issues. We saw this a year ago when Nebraska started 6-1, and were blown out by the Spartans in their first Big Ten game. The Badgers also limited them to 55 points in last year’s matchup. Grab the points with Wisconsin.

There was not a team that least impressed me last week then watching San Diego get absolutely torched in the first half against San Jose State. Yet, Steve Lavin did not stop coaching and his Torreros fought back to make a game of it in the second half. Look for that energy as San Diego gets an opportunity in a rare nationally televised spot, against a USC team that lost it’s last time out against Washington. 

Monday is a very light slate in college hoops, where I’ll venture into the Southland conference for a small play on New Orleans. The Privateers were embroiled in a gambling scandal last season, and come into tonight with six straight losses. They’ll face an Incarnate Word team that is playing 48 hours later after losing to winless Nicholls. Also, their winning record is masked by three wins against non division one schools. Take the home team plus the points with New Orleans.

A spread that is devalued lies in the Big Sky and Summit Challenge later today. Nebraska Omaha is winless on the road this season, leaving margin for error open in the final ten minutes. Additionally, Portland State has just one win one win this season against a division one opponent by double digits. Take the Vikings whose guard play shines enough to topple this spread.

The Orlando Magic received big news today with the return of their star player Paulo Bachelor. They will face a Miami Heat they defeated by four points to begin the season. It was a matchup the Magic erased an eight point deficit in the fourth quarter to come back in win. Look for the Magic to take advantage tonight against a Heat team traveling in from Dallas, and are below .500 on the season on the road.

The Orlando Magic received big news today with the return of their star player Paulo Bachelor. They will face a Miami Heat they defeated by four points to begin the season. It was a matchup the Magic erased an eight point deficit in the fourth quarter to come back in win. Look for the Magic to take advantage tonight against a Heat team traveling in from Dallas, and are below .500 on the season on the road.

The Detroit Pistons will face the Milwaukee Bucks twice the rest of this week, beginning with a road game tonight. Recently, the Pistons have been involved in closer games. A couple of losses, and three wins by five points or less. Expect that to change against a Bucks team that has dropped eight out of their last nine. This includes a thirteen point loss to Detroit. Lay the number here.

Northern Arizona has held up to begin the season better than anticipated. They have won three straight games, and have not left the state of Arizona over their last five games.  Yet, this NAU team is bound for their first home let down of the year. They lost several key graduates and double double threat Carson Towt to Notre Dame. Take South Dakota State to snap their two game losing streak, and winless road record.

When it comes to Florida Gulf Coast, expect close games. Each of their last two games has went into overtime. Their opponent tonight in Florida International was a one point game last season, 60-59. Look for the Panthers to be motivated as they try and end losing the last three meetings against Florida Gulf Coast. Back the home team here on the moneyline.

There are certain teams that are on the way up, but too young at the moment. Washington State showed they have the skill players to be competitive if they can retain them when the season’s over. Yet, going on the road is where relying on young players can get tricky. Traveling to face Bradley in a true road game I believe ends up leading to a flat spot for the Cougars. Lay the seven.

Jackson State after beginning the year 0-6, got their first win of the season against UL Lafayette. Road travel has been the norm for Coach Mo Williams and his Tigers team, as tonight will mark their seventh road game overall. That’s factored into the number against a Kennesaw State team that comes in on six days rest. Look for a ten to twelve point win, but for Jackson State to cover the line.

The LA Clippers continue to be the struggling team that the market values off of prior seasons. That can be tough to find a spot to back, as they are just 2-8 on the road and have dropped seven out of their last eight games. Still, tonight will mark Kawhi Leonard’s fifth game back in the lineup. He has scored 30 or more in consecutive games, and the first matchup against Miami was just a one point loss on November 3rd. Back the Clippers.

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost six games in a row and now will head to Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. New York at home this season is 8 and 1 overall. Yet, we just saw the Bucks undermanned face a Heat team that is 9 and 1 at home and not give up despite being down double digits late. There is also a chance that Giannis suits up, which would drop this spread 1.5-2 points. Grab the number now.

Two teams that are fairly even will meet today in Destin, Florida. For the Blue Demons they have responded nicely since losing consecutive games against Northwestern and Buffalo. Where their offense has picked up with back to back games of 93 points or more. That has caused the line to shift on Tech’s side to DePaul. Georgia Tech has had weak competition but is also the less traveled team. DePaul has the early offensive success, and the Yellow Jackets make the adjustments to overtake the game. 

Early season conference tournaments you have to evaluate how teams respond off a loss. San Diego State lost at home to Troy, and were blown out Monday by Michigan by forty points. They bounced back yesterday to defeat Oregon by 17 points, and now have the depth advantage over a Baylor team that plays just seven guys. For a tournament game that is their third in three nights take the Aztec. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off just their third victory of the season over the Chicago Bulls. Their opponent in Memphis already has a victory over the Pelicans this year, and have started to get more comfortable minus Ja Morant. In the victory over the Pelicans seven players from Memphis scored in double figures. They also attempted 43 free throws, with Kentavious Caldwell Pope leading the way at 9 for 9. Take Memphis.

Early in the season there are certain coaches that are adjusting to a bevy of portal transfers. That is the case with Bryce Drew, as Tyon Grant Foster is flourishing at Gonzaga and Duke Brennan is leading the country in rebounding at Villanova. A handful of games in expect the Lopes to show growth tonight against Utah. The Utes are coming off a poor loss to Cal Poly, and will have consecutive losses for the first time this season.

The Houston Rockets will be without Kevin Durant tonight, but will face a Phoenix Suns team in a back to back spot. Houston on the season has not lost consecutive games since their first two games to begin the season. Look for the team to be fired up as it’s the first matchup seeing Dillon Brooks since being traded in the off-season. Lay the high number with the Rockets.

Two teams that are searching for stability early in the season will meet in James Madison and Florida International. James Madison is 0-3 on the season in road games, losing by nine points or more in all, including a bad loss to Long Island. The Panthers have had a subpar schedule where two of their four opponents were non division one schools. Take James Madison who has the x-factor in long range shooting. 

The San Antonio Spurs got away with one in their last matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, in which they ended the game on an 11 to 0 run. Tonight, they will face an Atlanta Hawks team that has been far superior on the road then at home. On the road they have a 7-2 record, and are just coming off sweeping a four game west coast road trip. Take the Hawks here.

Small schools that make noise early in the season ones that I’ll look to find fade worthy spots against. Tarleton State has done that with their a former big time recruit in Dior Johnson shining off the bench. He has had a couple of outbursts including scoring over thirty points against Baylor. Rice may only have one win against a division one school, but they have faced Oregon and just on Monday Tennessee. Look for a sound game from the Owls and a cover against Tarleton State.

Pittsburgh will travel for a neutral site game against Central Florida, in  Daytona Beach, Florida. The Knights had an impressive win over Texas A&M where they won outright as 10.5 point underdogs. Still, they are very thin off the bench, and I expect Pittsburgh’s defense and deeper roster to wear them down. Take Pittsburgh.

SC Upstate was impressive on their West Coast road trip to start the season. They showed athleticism against California Baptist, and knocked off Fresno State as near double digit underdogs. Today, can be a slip up spot as it is their first true home game against a division one opponent in Tennessee Tech. Expect Tennessee Tech to come out with a sense of urgency early on after losing a close game against West Georgia. They’ll do enough in the second half to hold off a rally from SC Upstate.

The Memphis Grizzlies have dropped four straight games, and eight out of their last nine. As bleak as their season looks they got worse news as Ja Morant will be out a minimum two weeks with a calf strain. A team that also has issues are the Spurs who are down both Wemby and Dylan Harper. They’ve also had issues with defensive lapses in three out of their last four games. Take the value on the Grizzlies.

Just a slight value play on Southern Illinois as they head on the road for North Dakota State. North Dakota State has just one win over a division one school and that was against a Cal State Northridge team that had no legs playing two games in three nights in North Dakota. A game they actually trailed at halftime by three points. Expect SIU to hand North Dakota State their first home loss of the season.

Winning without key players you typically don’t have a common opponent example of. For the Knicks we do as they defeated Miami by eight points on Friday, without Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby who left early in the game. They scored a season high 140 points, and it was the fourth time in five games scoring more then 133 points overall. Take the Knicks to get their second win over the Heat in the last four days.

The LA Clippers are just 1-7 over their last eight games. They’ve been without Kawhi Leonard, lost Bradley Beal for the season, and suffered another key injury in yesterday’s defeat with Derrick Jones Jr going down. Yet, the team fought back from a twenty four point third quarter deficit to lose by just three points to Boston. The effort is there, and I expect that to overtake a Philadelphia team that tends to lose its focus for four quarters. Grab the points with the Clippers. 

LeMoyne like most programs that enter division one has struggled. This is just their third season overall, and they are just 6 and 26 against division one schools over the last two seasons. So seeing them a favorite is a value spot for me, especially facing a Niagara team that blew them out a season ago 88-69. Take LeMoyne on the moneyline.

A light NBA Saturday, but the final game should be a solid one between Denver and Minnesota. Denver has won six straight games and eight of nine, and does have the rest advantage over Minnesota. The Timberwolves played yesterday and had to work to get the victory over Sacramento. Expect a cleaner game tonight and for the Timberwolves to get revenge for losing by thirteen points to Denver on October 27th.

Two of the toughest teams to watch in the NBA right now are the Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers. The Clippers are winless on the road this season and have lost six straight games. Even with that their dysfunction does not compare to the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has had a home friendly schedule going into their 9th of 13 games at home, and still that has not mattered. Look for the Clippers bench development without Kawhi Leonard and Bradley Beal to show tonight. Take the Clippers.

Early in the season in college basketball oddsmakers will bait teams aiming for their first win at home. That’s the case I believe with Brown as they face Hampton tonight. Brown is 0-3 on the year, and will face a Hampton team that is going into their third road game of the season. They also had the big challenge in their last game facing a power four school in Virginia. Take the short underdog here with Hampton.

It’s not often a team that won just twelve games a season ago is a sizable favorite with a 1-2 record. Fairfield’s only win on the season was against a non division one school, but they did test Penn State in an eight point loss. After an off night shooting Monday against Seton Hall, look for the Stags to get back in their range of scoring in the mid 70’s. That will be enough to get the cover against Stonehill.

All teams early in the season have issues playing in the altitude. That is expected to heighten for the Atlanta Hawks who are in a back to back spot tonight after defeating the Sacramento Kings. Utah is also undefeated at home with a 5-0 ATS mark. Yet, look for the Hawks depth to be on showcase and Nickeil Alexander Walker’s experience in the Western Conference to pay off. Take Atlanta as the slim favorite.

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the bigger surprises to start the NBA season. Even with key injuries to Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks for a stretch they have played team basketball. Devin Booker is taking over but also involving his teammates which was not a possibility with Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant. A day after Nico Harrison was fired expect the lowly Mavericks to falter as the organization continues it’s rough start to the season.

There are games early in the season you expect to be a true hard fought matchup. I expect that tonight between Santa Clara and Xavier. For Xavier they are learning on the fly under new Coach Richard Pitino and several transfers. While Santa Clara has maintained a program identity under Herb Sendek since 2016. That is the difference even with the long travel to Xavier as Santa Clara covers as road underdogs.

Both the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs began the season undefeated with 5-0 records. Each has now sustained losses, but the Spurs now have their missing piece in their lineup with De’Aaron Fox. The Bulls on the other hand have had severe scoring lapses in each of their last four games. Take the Spurs to cover and end the Bulls 5-0 home start.

Small school college hoops games are often times the most valuable this time of the year. Both Charleston Southern and Citadel were blown out in their lone matchups against division one schools. Today’s matchup looks like a road game for Charleston Southern, but both schools are in the city of Charleston. Look for the Buccaneers Big South style of scoring to give Citadel problems. Lay the number.

The Chicago Bulls were once 5-0, now have dropped two out of their last three games. One could argue if not for a horrific Philadelphia 76ers melt down they would be on a three game losing streak. Now the Bulls will be in their first back to back spot to start the season, against a Cavaliers that has scored season highs each of their last two games. Lay the number with Cleveland.

The Golden State Warriors lineup continues to be in limbo. On the road they are just 1-4 on the season, and will face a Denver team looking to make amends from melting away the first matchup against Golden State. That was a game the Warriors heavily relied on Steph Curry’s shot making to get to overtime. This is also the Warriors first game in altitude which will threaten the pace of play they are accustomed to. Lay the number with Denver.

Returning from a team’s first West Coast road trip can present its challenges. That likely will occur for the Miami Heat as they host the Charlotte Hornets, who are aiming to get revenge from a 144-117 loss to the Heat earlier this season. While I expect a better effort and a first half that goes the Hornets way, look for the Heat to adjust post halftime and get past the number.

Tonight is an opportune spot with the Sacramento Kings. Steph Curry has already been ruled out. And now the market has shifted with the news on the Kings ruling out players. Expect Steve Kerr to counter the same move with Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green in a game that will be in the hands of reserve players. The Warriors are just .500 over their last six games, and did not end yesterday’s game against the Suns strong. Lay the new number with Sacramento.

Any time a team jumps out to an unexpected undefeated start, it’s an immediate attack for me off their first loss. That’s the case with the Chicago Bulls who we saw get three of their four home victories outright as home underdogs. Philadelphia may lack strong defense but their offensive scoring abilities are going to be to much for the Bulls. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Philadelphia have a forty point quarter, and I expect this line to shift in the 76ers favor by tipoff. Take Philadelphia.

There are certain matchups from a season ago you have to toss out the window for assessment. That is the case with Valparaiso who blew out Eastern Illinois 81 to 53. Both teams were hit hard by the portal especially the Beacons who lost key players to Wake Forest, Cornell, and the big one All Wright to Xavier. Yet, Eastern Illinois their lack of ability to score in the half court is not the side you want to be on in the final ten minutes. Valparaiso gets the key baskets and free throws late to win this by nine to twelve points.

Small school matchups early in the season I believe bode to the road team. You tend to see more mistakes at home late in games as teams are going through closeout situations for the first time. Look for that to come into play tonight with Utah Tech against South Dakota. A Trailblazers team that will be hungry to get off on the right foot, after just seven wins a season ago. One of those seven victories came against South Dakota. Take Utah Tech.

It’s rare to see a team with a .500 record missing their superstar and still be steep road favorites. That is the case tonight as the Minnesota Timberwolves travel to face the winless Brooklyn Nets. The Timberwolves took a couple games minus Anthony Edwards to adjust, but seem to know their new roles. They also are familiar with Michael Porter Jr. from his Western Conference tenure with the Denver Nuggets. Expect hungry reserves off the bench to build on a lead with Bones Hyland, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Rob Dillingham. Lay the points with Minnesota.

The Boston Celtics with their new lineup it’s a process every night to tinker and adjust. Playing in a back to back spot figures to be the toughest spot, as they run so many players in and out of the lineup. That should give the Rockets the upper hand with their big lineup to wear down the Celtics. Take Houston as they win their third straight game and cover the number.

The Milwaukee Bucks defensively have shined in wins against the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors. A lack of focus could be in play today in a letdown spot as the opponent in the Kings is not the same caliber. Sacramento is just 1-4, but they have enough veteran skill players to get the upper hand in the scoring department. Grab the points here with the Kings. 

The Phoenix Suns have had two close calls shift their early season start to a 1-4 record. While they have been short handed minus Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green they have fought. They had a narrow loss to Memphis their last game, and took tonight’s opponent in the Utah Jazz to overtime. Expect the Suns to show better effort in the rebounding department, and lean on Mark Williams more. Devin Booker also should be in for another big game as he torched the Jazz in the first matchup. Lay the points with the Suns. 

The LA Lakers got big news today with the return of Luka Doncic, who has missed the last three games. In his first two games he scored over 40 points, but also took an average of twenty five shots. Additionally, we also have an example of Reaves carrying the Lakers as the number one option with 45 points against the Pacers last season. When Doncic entered the lineup the Lakers dropped two games to the Jazz and Charlotte Hornets. Take the home team here with the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Atlanta Hawks at 1-3 personify why you can’t over react to early season basketball. Expectations can still be achieved as they work through their new personnel and lineups. Tonight is a golden opportunity to get back on track against a Brooklyn Nets team that is shot heavy with Michael Porter Jr and Cam Thomas. Expect the second unit of the Hawks to build upon any lead the first unit has. Roll with the Hawks.

The first road trip for any team can be difficult. For the Knicks they learned that in their first loss at Miami. Expect their offense to regroup at Milwaukee after two lower scoring performances against Boston and Miami. Take the Knicks to likely trail at half but make the adjustments to comeback and pull off the win against the Bucks. 

I’m going to add one more play in the NBA which I feel is a great mini slate tonight. The OKC Thunder are undermanned without Holmgren and Jalen Williams but will face a Sacramento Kings team that is coming off a demoralizing loss against the Lakers. Expect the dysfunction to only continue to rise for the Kings. The Thunder with their advanced depth will be able to play through being in a back to back spot. Lay the number as OKC returns from their road trip with a win and cover ATS. 

The Charlotte Hornets early in the season are attracting a new market from an ATS stand point. Even without Brandon Miller they are scoring at a high rate, and arguably should be 3-0 on the season. In their only loss they blew a double digit lead against the 76ers. I see a tighter game then the spread suggests against a Heat team coming off a statement win against the Knicks. Take the points with Charlotte. 

It’s inevitable after such a strong performance for a let down spot. Yesterday the 76ers led essentially start to finish against the Orlando Magic, and won outright as a 6.5 point underdog. Undefeated they will now take on the lowly Wizards, who have already had two double digit losses, and rank as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Yet, look for the Wizards to take advantage of a 76ers team that is in a back to back spot. Take the Wizards. 

The Phoenix Suns arguably should be 0-3 on the season. Each game this season they have trailed by steep deficits of 17 or more. In their first matchup they were able to come back against the Kings, and since have lost consecutive games by 27 and 22 points. Those were clear mismatches against the Clippers and Denver. Expect the Suns to be focused in an opportune spot against the Utah Jazz. Take the Suns on the line swing.

The LA Clippers had the flattest performance in game one against the Utah Jazz. That loss I believe continues to trickle over against a Phoenix Suns team that showed a lot of fight in their opener against the Kings. They came from behind on a 17 point halftime deficit. They’ll also be a motivated group seeing ex-Suns players in Chris Paul and Bradley Beal. Grab the points here with the Suns.

It’s always tough beginning an NBA season with two road games. That’s the case for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but tonight also brings forth familiarity with an NBA schedule. A year ago this Timberwolves team opened the season at the Lakers and lost by seven points. Look for that to be fresh on the Timberwolves minds, as they attack a one dimensional Lakers team of Luka and Austin Reaves. Take the Timberwolves.

Too much hype surrounding a team is inevitable with prior success. The Dallas Mavericks went to the NBA Finals just two seasons ago, and somehow landed the top pick in the NBA Draft with Cooper Flagg. The veterans surrounding Flagg have won NBA titles in Klay Thompson and Anthony Davis, but in game one tonight I see the value with the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio went undefeated in pre-season with a 5-0 record, and played competitively in both March meetings against Dallas, including a ten point victory. Grab the Spurs plus the points.

The NBA gave us a taste on opening night yesterday with a double-header, and now we have a full slate Wednesday. The Bulls were a trending upward team in the second half of last season thanks to the emergence of Josh Giddey. They have added a defensive presence with Isaac Okoro, but the Pistons are a matchup they struggled with a season ago. They lost each of the last three games by eight points or more, where Detroit scored an average of 129 points. Take the Pistons.

There aren’t many games in the NBA playoffs where the spread is actually a factor. Tonight though I believe we see that be the case, with the spread a bit to high on the Knicks side. These two teams know each other very well from the regular season series, and playing a seven game series last postseason. Take Indiana who has covered seven out of ten playoff games, to cover a generous spread.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been stout since March 2nd, with a 25-6 record. Additionally, they have split each of the last two regular season series against the Thunder. While they may have the rest advantage, Oklahoma City had a level of focus to close out their series against Denver that I see carrying over. They also have been home a full five days since their Thursday game six at Denver. Look for Minnesota’s one weakness in the postseason to be on display as they lost game one against Golden State, and game two against the Lakers. Play the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has not played their best basketball over the last two games, but they have utilized their depth to erase deficits and win in the fourth quarter. In game six they will attempt to get their first road cover in the series, which I believe will play out similar to games four and five. On a reduced spread offering from games three and four, back OKC to close out Denver. Lay the number in game six.

The Cleveland Cavaliers had their first flat performance of the postseason in game four’s loss against the Indiana Pacers. Down three games to one, they can not allow the Pacers to dictate the tempo early on like game four. Look for the Cavaliers to show the focus they did in game three, and extend this series at least one more game. Lay the big number on Cleveland.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been masterful defensively against the Golden State Warriors. Golden State has not scored over 100 points in the series yet, and Jimmy Butler put his all into game three. With Anthony Edwards coming off his best game of the series, look for other teammates to find their confidence in game four. Minnesota covers and heads back home to try and close out the series in five.

Of the remaining teams in the postseason, the predictability of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been the strongest. They swept the Miami Heat, and if they were healthy perhaps they would be going for another sweep today. Road success in their three postseason wins has been by a minimum twenty points, and an average margin of victory of 38 points. Not as lopsided here in game four, but their surge offensively continues to push them past the number.

In two of the last three playoff games from Indiana they have pulled off miracle comebacks in the final minute. Today, look for the Cavaliers in a desperation spot to play with the same intensity as game two, but to avoid a fourth quarter meltdown. With this line gaining momentum on the Cavaliers side, I expect at least two if not all three in Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and DeAndre Hunter to play tonight. Tail the Cavaliers.

For the first time since game one the Denver Nuggets are favored in their series against the LA Clippers. Typically, the home court edge pays off for the home team in game seven, but I’ll side with the Clippers here.  Look for the Clippers to not make the same mistake as game five when they came out flat at Denver. Just like the Nuggets last playoff series when they were up 3-2 against Minnesota, they fall short in game seven. Take the Clippers.

The Jimmy Butler effect is in play once again for game four now that he has been cleared. In game three I went the other way on the market reacting to Butler being out, and now will do so with him being cleared. As strong as Golden State’s overall record is with Butler in the lineup, Houston did go into Golden State and defeat them on April 6th. This is also the first time in the postseason Steph Curry has to step back on the court in a forty eight hour turn around, which has been troublesome for Curry during the regular season. Back the Rockets for the cover in game four.

The Golden State Warriors are one of the few teams prepared for a postseason injury. They’ve had role players and star players in and out of the lineup, and Jimmy Butler was a late add pre- trade deadline. At home, their role players excel and expect Steve Kerr to adjust the defense off the Rockets excellent game two. Golden State with or without Jimmy Butler gets it done in game three.

The LA Clippers had their moments in game one but could not generate enough offense after an explosive first quarter of 35 points. Defensively though they limited Denver to 44 percent shooting, in a game that saw Jamal Murray play a season high forty eight minutes. Look for Tyronn Lue to have the necessary adjustments for the Clippers to earn a split before heading back home for game three.

The Knicks have an extra aggressive spread today against Detroit. Their dominance over the Pistons spanned from 2019 until this December where they had won sixteen matchups in a row. Now that has flipped with Detroit winning the last three. Yet, the Knicks are a team I believe can flip that postseason on switch. The experience factor is one-sided over a Pistons team that I expect to be overwhelmed in game one. Take the Knicks

Having a short term memory in the play-in is suited for the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. Miami dismantled a Bulls team that had some injuries, and just was not ready in the first quarter. Atlanta this is their fourth straight season in the play-in, and have a better core of defenders to handle the hot shooting of Tyler Hero, Bam Adebayo, and even Andrew Wiggins. Take the Hawks to advance as the eighth seed in the East. 

The Dallas Mavericks are a team that if they had a bit more time together could have been dangerous. The make up of their team is versatile, but there just has not been enough time together to back on the road. Over their last five road games against Western Conference opponents they have lost by an average margin of 27 points. DeMar Derozan actually had his best game points wise against the Mavericks with 42 this season. This is likely the last instance of getting the Kings at this high of a favored spot, but take the Kings to advance to face the Grizzlies.

The Chicago Bulls were expected to fade from the possibility of a play-in when they traded away Zach Lavine. Instead their roster has sprung to the occasion and been a pleasant surprise. Miami is a team they defeated just last Wednsday by eight points, and also defeated them mid-March by five points. They’re also a team that has had consistent second half issues. Take the Bulls to defeat the Heat for the fourth time this season.

Today’s play-in spreads are competitive to top seeds that await in both the Eastern and Western Conference. That tells me that the market believes the Orlando Magic are better then their 7th seed, which may have been the case if they did not struggle with injuries all season long. This is also the third matchup in a week’s period between both teams, which I believe bodes to the advantage of the home team. Take Orlando on the spread as they solidify the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference.

A point spread that the market over reacted on slightly in my opinion is in play today with the Detroit Pistons. Detroit has the advantage with being at home since April 5th, but their offense has been out of sync. If not for a tired Knicks team in the fourth quarter yesterday, they may have lost their third game in a row. Milwaukee has also won the first two matchups against Detroit. This is a cover only position as I expect the Bucks to finish within the number.

A team that is consistently favored on the road can be tough to evaluate. The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in which they blew a 24 point fourth quarter lead. It ended their five game winning streak, but expect Minnesota to rally off that loss. Memphis may be on a winning streak, but they’ve had their issues at home losing four out of their last five. Take the Twolves to finish off their road finale with a win.

The Detroit Pistons come into today’s matchup against the New York Knicks looking to avoid three straight losses at home. That’s an occurrence that has not happened the entire season, and I expect their aggression at the onset to overwhelm the Knicks. New York is coming off a difficult overtime loss against Boston. This is also a series that has shifted. New York had won sixteen straight over Detroit, but now the tables have turned with the Pistons taking the last two matchups. They’ve get their third victory in a row over New York and cover the number.

The Houston Rockets are coming off one of their best victories of the season on Sunday, defeating the Golden State Warriors who are 20-5 over their last 25 games. They limited Steph Curry to just three points, but tonight is a fade spot off that great performance. They’ve had a mini layoff, and although the Clippers are in a back to back spot they have won five games in a row, and seven of eight. Take the Clippers as the steep favorite.

Yesterday the Boston Celtics likely completed their last meaningful game in the regular season by sweeping the New York Knicks. The on and off switch has been used often this season with the Celtics, and I expect their backups to be effected with this tonight. Orlando they are competing to be in the proper mode for the play-in games next week, and should exude that effort tonight against the Celtics. Lay the rare big number against Boston tonight.

Today the Celtics can lean on last year’s end of season matchup against the Knicks, to avoid a let down. Similar to last season the Celtics have won the first three matchups decisively by an average margin of twenty one points. At the tail end of last season though the Celtics let up against the Knicks and lost. Even if a couple of players are ruled out take the Celtics to show the focus of completing the season sweep over the Knicks.

A likely play in matchup will be on display tonight as Orlando hosts the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta actually has more to play for as they want to avoid falling into the ninth spot and being surpassed by Chicago. Yet, Orlando is starting to show upward momentum where they are 6-2 over their last eight games. Lay it with the home team Orlando Magic.

The Toronto Raptors are in a back to back spot, but concern is there with how they performed twenty four hours ago. Beyond the first quarter against Portland they scored just 19 points in the second, and were outscored by double digits in the second half. They’ve already ruled out RJ Barrett, and Scottie Barnes is questionable. Look for Detroit to play elevated basketball after consecutive losses by sixteen points or more.

Right now it is very uncommon not to see a double digit spread in the NBA. As the season winds down there is a big disparity in level of competition. The Philadelphia 76ers were one of the first teams to go down this path, and Milwaukee has adjusted to being without Damian Lillard. Take the Bucks to cruise against the 76ers.

The Portland Trailblazers overall season was better than expected, as Chauncey Billups got the Trailblazers to show improvement from a season ago. Down the stretch to close out the season though, they are struggling with four straight losses by double digits. Expect Atlanta’s pace of play to be the difference as they have one explosive second half quarter and push past the number.

It’s always a tricky spot when a West coast team returns home in their first game back from an East coast road trip. Los Angeles after botching a potential win against the Chicago Bulls, regrouped for a solid road win at Memphis. They’ll face a Houston team that’s in a back to back spot, and I expect to be the aggressor after a slow first quarter in their prior matchup against the Rockets. Take the Lakers to cover the short number.

Las Vegas will hold their first postseason tournament in college basketball in quite some time. The field will have a chance to win money, just like the tournament that was played at T-Mobile Arena in non-conference play. Arizona State is one of the more interesting teams in the field. Injuries and opt outs resulted in losing eleven out of twelve games. But there’s a hunger when it comes to prize money, and Arizona State has had a couple of weeks to practice with their new group. Take ASU plus the points against a Nebraska team that lost their focus at the end of the season.

Typically there is not a shock to a coach being fired. That was not the case for the Memphis Grizzlies as Taylor Jenkins was surprisingly let go. In their first game without Jenkins the Grizzlies lost to the Lakers, and now will face a Celtics team that is getting close to their peak playoff form abilities. Poor spot for the Grizzlies even at home, who I expect to continue to falter against high level teams. Lay it with Boston.

The Portland Trailblazers boomerang of consistency has continued. They won four straight games, but now have dropped three straight all by double digits. The Knicks are starting to adjust even minus rotation players, and can lean on their narrow one point win March 12th at Portland. Better offense this time, as the Knicks get over 120 points. Lay the number here.

The Chicago Bulls have won five out of their last six games, and got the attention of everyone with their miracle victory over the LA Lakers. Today’s spot against the Dallas Mavericks fits the bill of a letdown spot. Although Dallas has several players as game time decisions, they are ignoring being written off as a potential play in team. Take Dallas as they continue a solid road trip, and cover the spread.

Two teams coming off blowout losses will meet today as the Wizards host the Brooklyn Nets. For Washington they are coming off losing by fifty one points to the Indiana Pacers. Yet, two of their sixteen wins on the season came against the Nets, including a recent 107 to 99 victory on February 24th. Take the Wizards to complete the sweep over the Nets.

Recency bias is in play today as the Orlando Magic host the Sacramento Kings. This week we saw another west coast team in the Lakers travel to Orlando as favorites and fall to the Magic. It is the only instance out of the Magic’s last eight home games that they won and covered, as they are 1-7 ATS over their last eight home games. Sacramento now has Malik Monk and Sabonis back, and will build on their win over Portland. Take the Kings on the wrong line move.

The Phoenix Suns were embarrassed their last time out on national television again the Boston Celtics. They’ll now travel on the road against a Timberwolves team that has had their number. Seven straight wins dating back to last postseason, and they have had three full days off. Generous number based on the history and rest factor for Minnesota, take the value on the Suns.

Surviving in March Madness is one of the biggest value indicators for me moving forward in the tournament. The Maryland Terrapins won on a buzzer beater over Colorado State, and I believe play better today against Florida as a result. All the noise surrounding their Coach Kevin Willard will not be a distraction. Grab the Terrapins to hang with Florida today plus the points.

The Dallas Mavericks continue to play beat up as they will be without PJ Washington, but I’m rolling the dice with Anthony Davis being questionable. With Davis in the lineup he provided an immediate lift in a 19 point win over the Brooklyn Nets. He put in one of his best games of the season with 39 points and 9 rebounds against the Magic as a member of the Lakers. Too steep of a number here as I believe this spread should be closer to five.

The LA Clippers have had an uptick in scoring over their last four road games. They’ve produced 121, 119, 120, and 117 points. They also hindered the New York Knicks to just 95 points on March 7th. Even though the Clippers are coming in for their first game on their East coast road trip, tail LA with the Knicks in a back to back spot.

Postseason college basketball tournaments are used for team development but also a pride element for a team that let an opportunity slip in their conference tournament. Cleveland State played a sloppy game against Youngstown State from an offensive stand point, and could not convert in the final minutes. The CBI has been motivation for them, and I expect the Vikings to continue to showcase elevated basketball against an Atlantic Sun opponent. Lay the number with Cleveland State.

The Philadelphia 76ers have continued to deplete their roster as the season winds down. Kelly Oubre Jr. has not been used since subbing out in the third quarter of March 12th’s loss to the Toronto Raptors, and now Quentin Grimes who has been a big boost is also ruled out. Yet, this Philadelphia team has had time with their revamped roster and will face a Pelicans team also undermanned. Grab the value on the line move for the 76ers

The Iowa State Cyclones get an advantage today over Ole Miss over the simple fact of the ease of their first round matchup. They cruised in a twenty seven point win over Lipscomb. The victory is a confidence boost for the Cyclones that know they can play without Keshon Gilbert. On the other side Ole Miss had a battle to get by North Carolina, which can hurt a team in the round of 32. Look for the Cyclones to impress once again on a reduced favored number. Lay it with Iowa State.