Play Miami Heat -1.5

            The Heat are rising to the occasion and playing some of the best basketball in the NBA in my opinion currently. As stated in ATS wins the last two weeks D Wade wants this Heat team to get on a roll before All Star break. He has delivered his part and did so with absentee play from his supporting cast last night. Utah is just a mess offensively which bodes to the Heat's advantage. Expect a better effort from the Heat supporting cast and continued solid defense. Grab the Heat.

CS Fullerton -5.5

            Out in Big West action will take a stab at CS Fullerton who are coming off an atrocious performances against UC Riverside. Yet before that game they had shown strides with 7 wins. I like the mix of interior and guard play that Fullerton can shine with against Cal State Northridge. While Riverside used proper offensive sets and numerous passes to find open shots, Northridge is the exact opposite with to many one on one moves and lack of proper sets. Grab Fullerton -5.5.

Wizards +3

            The Magic and Wizards both played last night with the Wizards losing soundly to the Raptors and Magic defeating the Nets. The Magic's win ended a four game losing streak that started with a loss to the Wizards. Yet as I profiled in the Magic's loss to the Wizards no team in basketball looks as tired as the Magic. Last night they were able to win with 83 points and shooting below 40 percent from the field. The Wizards are playing better than they were in the prior matchup and have found a balanced lineup with Temple, Dudley, and others while Bradley Beal is out. Grab the Wizards

Boise State -6

            Boise State were steep favorites last Saturday in which they didn't cover against Colorado State. Now home again they'll face a Fresno State team that may have more athleticism than teams they've faced such as Michigan State. Yet, athleticism does not grant you an instant advantage. Look for the Broncos to get what they want offensively and cruise similar to the way they did against Oregon.

Arizona State +5

            The Sun Devils keep garnering ATS key numbers for several reasons. They have shooters and are growing game to game. UCLA is coming off a win over the Wildcats, a game in which they nearly let slip away. I like the skill personnel that ASU has in the backcourt to play up to par with the Bruins strength with Alford. Grab ASU to keep this within the number.

VMI +7.5

            By no means do I believe Western Carolina should be 7.5 point favorites. They've lacked the offensive camaraderie to pull away from teams which has hurt their strength in defense. VMI is coming off a circus swing of performances with a blowout loss to Furman and a narrow home loss to Wofford. Expect a better balance here from VMI for a complete game and a cover of 7.5

Wichita State -7

            Wichita State's failure with returnees and transfers from Kansas and Cleveland State's Anton Grady have finally created ATS value here. With Southern Illinois coming off a home win against Northern Iowa as 2.5 point underdogs, you'd figure they'd be in for another solid win at home against Wichita State. Instead I believe Wichita State finally got the wake up call they needed in a narrow 67-64 win against Evansville. Grab Wichita State -7

Notre Dame -4.5

            Notre Dame is one of those teams that you can't understand why they're not a top 25 team. Losses of key players from graduation a year ago have hurt them but they have plenty of talent to make up for it. This should be a good spot against a Pittsburgh team that at times is lost on the offensive end. Look for the Irish to have a great game plan, which executed will showcase their skill advantage over the Panthers.

Cleveland State +5

            No team has been effected more by transfers than Cleveland State who lost Grady to Wichita State and Trey Lewis to Louisville. Milwaukee has been a solid program for the Horizon league but I see value in Cleveland State after surrendering a double digit lead to explosive Green Bay in their last game. Milwaukee does not blow you away with their offense which should keep Cleveland State in this.

St. John's +11

            The Johnnies are continual double digit underdogs as they are in a complete overhaul process under Chris Mullin. The Golden Eagles are coming off a big upset over Providence which has pushed this line up probably a good 2.5 points from where it should be. The inconsistent Golden Eagles are virtually getting the same spread that Providence a top ten team had against St. John's last Saturday. Expect a hangover here and a hungry Johnnies team to capitalize similar to when they faced Syracuse.

Maryland -3.5

            This game is what I call a gut check for the Maryland Terrapins. Have they played up to the caliber of play they should be? No, but they're still a top five team and have a legitimate chance of grabbing a number one seed. This is the type of test game that they should be able to prevail. Wisconsin will look to slow the game down but I do not believe they have the defensive capabilities to limit the Terrapins penetration with Melo Trimble and company. Expect the Terrapins to have a wide edge at the free throw line.

Play Portland Trailblazers +10

            If you recall a couple of seasons ago as the Warriors were growing, they had some classic games against the Trailblazers. Big leads never were protected in this matchup. The Warriors small ball lineup should aid the Trailblazers who have an explosive offense at home. Grab the Blazers plus ten points.

Play Miami -5

            Miami is one of those teams that you can sense has upward capability in its near future. With as bad as the Suns have played defensively that should only aid in the Heat's advantages tonight down in Phoenix. Lastly, I've said it before but Phoenix is one of the poorest home teams on Friday nights for whatever reason over the last five-six years.

Play Toronto -2

            I tabbed the Raptors as a devalued team ATS but won't shift to an overreaction as a two point road favorite against the Wizards. Washington has grabbed us a couple of slim covers including last week against the Raptors and a few nights ago against Cleveland. Besides a Raptors fourth quarter offensive lull they had full control of that game. I expect a better sense of play from the Raptors second unit this time around. Grab Toronto -2.

Utah +9

            There's prime value on Utah tonight who seem to play up for competition one night and off the grid the next. After being dominated by the Spurs it'd seem like they're set for another downfall in Texas to Houston. Instead expect the Jazz to be able to hang with the Rockets who allow leads to slip just as fast as they got them. Grab the Jazz +9.

Louisville -6

            Louisville has the depth this year to win games on the road as such favorites. I like the improvement of sophomores Onuaku, Snider, and company. Graduate transfers Lee and Lewis make the Cardinal dangerous. NC State lacks the scoring ability to keep within this number.

Miss State +7

            The Aggies hope to continue their ascent from the 21st ranking as they take on Miss State tonight on the road. Yet I believe this is a spot where Ben Howland can get the contributions he needs from Newman and company to pull of an upset against a veteran Aggies team. Grab the value here as the Aggies are coming off impressive double digit wins.

Wizards +7

            The Cavaliers have had their way post Christmas since a blowout loss to the Trail Blazers. They've been able to cover as of late including a game we were on against the Orlando Magic. Yet, playing on the road is a different story for the Cavaliers. With Irving back the second unit is still trying to mesh together. Those 12-15 minutes of bench play are key if you expect to win on the road, which the Cavs have been a meager 8-8. Grab the value on the Wizards similar to what we had on the Suns against the Cavs.

Wake Forest +8

            Duke has showed tremendous firepower in spurts but I believe Wake Forest can continue to show an upward trend tonight. They've battled in wins against Indiana and played well the other night against Louisville. Duke has struggled in games against teams like Wake w narrow wins over VCU and Georgetown on neutral courts. Grab the Demon Deacons to put hang tough for forty minutes

Play Sacramento Kings +5.5

            After a solid road win against the Thunder last night the Kings find themselves as 5.5 point road dogs tonight against Dallas. I don't anticipate the Kings running out of gas here. They're one of the hottest offensive teams in the NBA right now and scored over 140 points Saturday against the Suns. Don't look for the Kings momentum to end here. Grab the 5.5 tonight.

Play Atlanta Hawks -8

            One of the more curious swings of momentum came via the Hawks come from behind win against the Knicks recently. They turned it on and showcased just how much head and shoulders above they are than the Knicks. I'll give credit to the Knicks and their improvement but team's with true team ball and balance give them trouble. Atlanta learned their mistake from falling behind last time and will emphasize a hot start tonight. Hawks win by double digits.

Add Memphis -1

            We'll add Memphis to the card tonight. Playing at Portland is a tough battle for any team. After Memphis loss to the Jazz in overtime a few nights ago I saw a veteran team filled with dejection. I think this is a crucial period for a team that's been intact for awhile---if they fall apart expect trades. The young Blazers have had issues against defensive teams that are physical with them (Bulls/Pistons). Grab the Grizzlies to be aggressive early and defeat the Blazers on the road.

Miami -1.5

            The Pacers have had the Heats number this season but I look for things to fare differently tonight. Miami has played with the veteran uplift prototypical to days Lebron James was there. With Wade healthy he has proclaimed he wants to see the Heat answer strong before the All Star break. Grab the Heat tonight to clear the hurdle of the Pacers finally.

North Carolina -3

            As a short road favorite I believe North Carolina's veteran team can handle the youth of Florida State. It's always difficult on the road but North Carolina's 7th rated offense with five double digit scorers should be able to pull through in this one. Grab the Tar Heels.

Oakland Raiders +7.5

            Kansas City finds themselves into the playoffs off of balanced offense and an uncanny ability to score with their defense. Oakland's season took a final dagger when they let a six point lead in the fourth quarter erode against Kansas City. Carr threw three interceptions in that fourth quarter including a pick six. I believe that loss stung the Raiders and that they'll come out ready on both sides of the football in Kansas City. They also have motivation as a team to send out Charles Woodson in style. Grab the Raiders.

Play ASU +3.5

            This line has moved a half point and we'll grab the home value on the ASU Sun Devils. Though ASU has been wildly inconsistent this season they have had a steady knack of playing to the level of their opponents. This is not the same high-level Arizona team that Tucson is use to. New Coach Bobby Hurley will be looking to get things off to a roaring start and I think ASU has the personnel to pull off the upset at home.

New Orleans Saints +6

            The reported rumors of the end of the Payton/Brees era has not effected the quarterback whatsoever. The Saints offense was back in order against the Jaguars and I expect it to have its way against the Falcons as well. Atlanta may have knocked off the undefeated Panthers but there issues are well documented. We'll grab the value of the Saints to close out the regular season.

Play Denver +15

            Now is the time that I believe we can start grabbing value against the Warriors as double digit favorites at home. Sure they're going to pack fire power and great support but teams do not cover mid teen spreads with consistency. Denver has the ability to score and should stay in this game even if Steph Curry returns to the floor tonight. Grab the Nuggets.

Play Cleveland -8.5

            Currently I do not believe there is a more tired team in the NBA than the Orlando Magic. For a team that relies on defense and interior scoring that is troublesome. Their defense has waned in the second halves in losses to Miami and the Wizards in recent games. Outside shooting is not their strength which I believe will lead to the Cavs packing their defense inside. Grab the Cavs today.

Oregon +1

            On the collegiate level there is not a quarterback more entertaining to watch in bowl season than Vernon Adams Jr. Whether the defense gives up a touchdown or he throws an interception his mindset and play does not change. TCU has the back ground of a top five to ten team with senior players exiting. It just was not their year and I believe the Ducks will have their way to close out the Horned Frogs strong program run over the last three years.

Pacific +9.5

            We'll get in on a little WCC action between BYU and Pacific. Pacific once 1-8 has won two of their last three games to get to 3-9. This is simply a value play as we're getting the same spread as we received against Wisconsin-Green Bay on the road a few weeks back. BYU plays a similar open style with little defense. Scouting conference opponents is obviously a higher grade than the road game in Green Bay. We'll grab the value here with Pacific on their home floor in Stockton.

Cincinnati -8.5

            The Bearcats took a surprise loss to the Temple Owls to open up conference play. The shock was the way that the Owls were able to score against a typically strong Bearcats defense. Tulsa does not pose the same threat offensively and likes to play at a limited possessions slow pace. This is a situation where the Bearcats should thrive and respond after a loss to Temple.

Michigan State -10

            Off a scare to Oakland and a loss to Iowa this may seem like a great spot to grab the Gophers. Instead we'll take the Spartans who will face a Minnesota team that has no identity offensively. That's troublesome for the Gophers who are a very poor defensive team. Michigan State should be able to score in the high 80's here and solidify a comfortable cover.

East Tennessee State +4

            Out in the Southern Conference we'll add a play on East Tenn State. East Tenn State will face a Western Carolina team that is polar opposite of East Tenn State. They slow the ball down and can play solid half court defense. Yet they do not have the depth that East Tenn State has and do not have the pull away threat that you look for from a favored team of four points at home. Grab East Tenn State plus the four.

Georgia Tech +13.5

            A season ago North Carolina demolished Georgia Tech in one of the most lopsided wins from a power conference in-conference. I expect the Yellow Jackets to dig deep and showcase a much more balanced effort even on the road. They're a veteran team that has seen improvements from all returnees. Grab the Yellow Jackets plus 13.5.

Clemson +1.5

            The Tigers find themselves as an underdog after losing four of their last five games. Yet their last three opponents defeated them with clear athleticism advantages at all positions against Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Against Florida State, the Tigers will be able to compete in a much more balanced personnel matchup. Grab the Tigers to respond at home as slight underdogs.

Play Stanford +5

            Pac-12 conference play is set to start for both Stanford and Utah. The Utes had a mixed start to their non-conference portion of the season while Stanford is in obvious transition after losing several starters a season ago. This is a spot where I believe the Utes win over Duke may have them a bit over valued. In the majority of their non conference games their offense struggled and bogged down in the half court. Without Delone Wright who graduated a season ago they're missing that consistent slasher and go to scorer on a nightly basis. Stanford may be in transition but has the defense to keep them within this spread at home.

Take: (805) CHARLOTTE HORNETS 

Reason: Play Charlotte +6.5 Here we are with the same number as the other night that we had with the Wizards in Toronto. The Wizards had a poor performance the majority of the game but were able to close and get the cover for us in the fourth quarter. I said then I have the Raptors over valued over the next two weeks and will not sway with the same value on the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a poor defensive effort against the Clippers at home, but will not have to extend their defense nearly as much against the Raptors lineup. Grab the Hornets to cover another spread for us against the Raptors

Iowa +7

            How Stanford is a seven point favorite here is the one spread I have not figured out. Having watched nearly all their games this season they've played to level of their competition more times than not. Two wins over USC may have their ATS value skewed here. Iowa's defense will force enough turnovers off of Kevin Hogan to keep this within the number.

Michigan State +10

            In the books in Vegas I love to here the commotion on teams. Everyone's mindset is that this is Alabama's year. Maybe it is, but from an ATS stand point they've faltered more times than not. Michigan State Head Coach Mark Dantonio has put on the best coaching job of the season in my eyes. From poor performance wins against Indiana, Purdue, and Central Michigan to solid wins over Iowa/Ohio State. They've also progressed as the season has went on. Alabama will be put the test and likely prevail but expect another strong effort from the Spartans.

Florida State -7

            Florida State in my book has the best value of any team favored by seven or more in bowl season. Two losses this year---one on a blocked field goal as time expired and another against undefeated Clemson---has put this mirage that FSU has had a down season. Instead I expect FSU to show the same pedigree of a championship caliber team that they've displayed over the past two years. Houston's strength in the American conference was their athleticism. That will be nullified at quarterback with Greg Ward Jr and through the defense of the Cougars. Grab FSU.

Play Utah Jazz +2

The Jazz nearly lost to the 76ers a few nights back, so it's safe to say they're in trouble on the road against the Timberwolves, right? Not necessarily. The Jazz and Twolves matchup well with both teams boasting youth. But the mix of the Jazz youth is gelling better in my opinion than the Twolves. Minnesota has lost four games in a row and is having a tough time allocating the proper minutes to veterans Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince while giving it's stock piled youth experience. Grab the Jazz who have leverage with a rotation that should take advantage of bench minutes of the Twolves.

Play Washington +7

The Toronto Raptors are one of the teams I've tabbed as vulnerable over the next week to two. They're a team reliant on Derozan and Lowry to do a bulk of their scoring, and have seen dips in the play of role players such as Cory Joseph, Luis Scola, and others. Therefore their typical strong home value has come down a bit. Washington is coming off a blowout loss at home to a Clippers team without Blake Griffin. Lets grab the value on the Wizards to respond on the road and cover 7.

Miss State -5

            NC State's 19th rated defense has to be looked at under a microscope. Their five losses in conference they allowed over 37 points a game and mind-boggling yardage. Their only wins in-conference were against the bottom feeders of the ACC who had a combined record of 10-28. Nothing changes here as the Bulldogs have too prolific of an offense for the Wolfpack to hold down. Dak Prescott goes out a winner and adds on to a stellar season statistically.

Auburn -2.5

            Memphis strong start and win over an SEC team in Ole Miss may seem like a good reason to back them against the Auburn Tigers. Yet, I did not like what I saw from the Tigers to conclude the season. The offense has not looked the same and the defense may be one of the worst in the bowl season. Adding Mike Norvell as their new Coach puts an added twist in the reason to back the Auburn Tigers. Norvell showed true inconsistencies at ASU as their offensive coordinator that will be spotlighted in this game.

LSU -7

            Les Miles and LSU should have their way defensively and offensively against the Big 12 Texas Tech. It's the same old script we tend to see from the Big 12 in bowl season and won't change against the more physical and powerful Tigers.

Atlanta +3

            The Hawks have value in my eyes on Tuesday as they've been a bit sluggish post holiday. They trailed by double digits to the Knicks before coming back and lost last night on the road to Indiana. Yet I'm impressed with the defense they showcased in the Knicks comeback as well as holding the Pacers to 93 points on their home floor last night. The offense will come and should tonight against a lax Rockets team defensively who allowed the Pelicans to surge back in the final six minutes the other night. Grab the Hawks on the road Tuesday.

Delaware +7

            Delaware is a team that may surprise some folks in the CAA this year. Don't forget Delaware was a 14th seed just two seasons ago before a complete rehaul last season in which they struggled. Now all that on court time is starting to payoff as Delaware can put up points in bunches. Buffalo has to be tagged with an asterisk as their holdover talent from the Bobby Hurley era has regressed. Grab Delaware.

NC State -6

            Northeastern has been a darling team for ATS covers. An outright win against Miami and a strong effort against Michigan State. Yet, I see value in NC State which has been struggling to adapt to personnel changes early in-season. They'll handle business today before conference play starts.

Cincinnati -12

            Temple is right back to where they were from a talent perspective two seasons ago. While they have athleticism at the forward positions, they're not scorers. The Bearcats length overall should negate any easy baskets and second chance shots we've seen Temple able to do before non-conference play. The Bearcats do not overwhelm opponents but they have an uncanny ability to wear a team down and capture large covers in the final ten minutes.

California -7

            Jared Goff had woes all season long and did not play like the elite level quarterback that draft prognosticators foresee him as. But when you've been a starter for numerous seasons and are in the Pac-12 your going to face elite talent. California just did not have the talent to surround Goff and be successful in the Pac-12. Facing Air Force will be a different story and I expect Goff to finally have a performance worthy of a high drafted quarterback.

Phoenix Suns +8.5

The Suns suddenly continue to lose and fell to a new low by losing to the 76ers in their latest game. Yet the Cavs have lost in back to back games on Christmas Day to the Warriors and in blowout fashion to the Trailblazers. Their defense is below average currently which can not sustain with a mediocre offense. We'll grab the value off the Suns loss to the 76ers.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

            The Broncos downfall is one of the more peculiar stories of the season. Their strong defense has somewhat worn down from the lack of offensive support received from quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.  How will an offense suddenly shift especially in a spot where Osweiler is dinged up and Manning is ready to come back on the field? Even at home and with backup AJ McCarron starting I'll side with the balance of the Bengals here. Grab Cincinnati to solidify their rights to a bye week on the road against the struggling Broncos.

Orlando Magic -4.5

We swayed from our backing of the Magic against the Heat but have been backing them for the past two weeks. We will in this spot after they blew a double digit lead to the Heat on the 26th. I'll expect the Pelicans to have a bit of tired legs after back to back games against the Heat/Rockets and now on the road against the Magic. Orlando had a meltdown defensively against the Heat that should turn around tonight against the perimeter oriented Pelicans.

LA Clippers +1.5

With Blake Griffin out the Clippers rose to the occasion in a come from behind win over the Jazz. Paul Pierce solidified why he should be a first ballot hall of famer in that win. This exact scenario is why the Clippers added proper depth with Pierce, Wesley J, Stephenson, etc. That combined with improved defense from the guard position leads me to believe they'll continue their road trip success tonight against the Wizards.

Central Michigan +6

            This is one bowl game where I'll put an asterisk on a defense in the Chippewas that can be supported solely by quarterback play. The Gophers are not a juggernaut scoring team which gives value to the Chippewas who are led by an underrated bowl quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Navy -3

            Something just was off with the Pittsburgh Panthers football team as the season waned on. Under a new Coach they seemed to hit that wall of change. Navy led by all time leading QB rusher Keenan Reynolds should handle this game.

Green Bay +4.5

            Green Bay is a team in December that I won't fade against. We've been 5-0 for/against them ATS this season backing them against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks and once against the Broncos. They've been 17-4 since 2011 in the months of December and are getting road value here simply for the fact that the Cardinals have been a dominant team at home.  But, with two games left and Arizona up two games on the Packers for a bye there is a chance for the Packers to close out and hurdle the Cardinals with help from Seattle in week seventeen.  Get ready for the first playoff atmosphere type game since the Broncos/Patriots a few weeks back. Back Aaron $$ Rodgers and the Packers Sunday who are getting too many points.

Houston -5

            The QB carousel of the Texans has been hard to watch over the course of this season. But Brandon Weeden starting in this spot may be the conservative need the Texans need. I feel they've stirred away from the running game a bit over the last six weeks. Weeden showed against the Eagles that he can run a simplistic conservative style with a protected defense. That's the recipe here as the Texans defense led by JJ Watt is on a mission to break their funk of missing out on the playoffs

Nebraska +6.5

            A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season.

Philadelphia Eagles -3

            Each time I've counted out Philadelphia they've showed the toughness to battle back. We did get a win last week with Arizona against them. Luckily for Philadelphia they still have a fighting chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.  One of the best first to second half turn around performances that still led to a loss was the Eagles against the Redskins earlier this season. Trailing 13-0 the Eagles came out of the half with a quick surge. They did fall short but look for the strengths they discovered in the second half of that game to come to the forefront here. Grab the Eagles Saturday.

Play Miami +4

            Post Christmas Day there is a pretty hefty slate of games in the NBA. Instead of predicting how a team will react post holiday, I'll focus on one team that played on Christmas Day in the Miami Heat. They're getting 4 to take on the Orlando Magic who have been a surprise this season. Yet, I like the veteran nature of the Miami Heat with Deng, Wade, Bosh, Green, Dragic, and others to come ready to play on a short trek up to Orlando. Grab the Miami Heat plus 4.

Duke +3

            Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner.

Washington -8.5

            Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team.

UConn +5

            UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog

Houston Rockets +7

            The Rockets are finally starting to show more than flashes of what they showcased a season ago. They've held opponents to under 100 points in three of their last four games, and are also showcasing better floor spacing. At home they'll have something to prove against their in-state superior in the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs may be 25-5 but they've been susceptible to lulls at a higher rate than usual under Poppovich. For our only play on Christmas day we'll grab the Rockets +7.

Charlotte Hornets -2

            The Hornets will try and utilize their home court to get back into the swing of things against the Boston Celtics. Boston's coming off a strong win against the Minnesota Timberwolves in which they won in double digit fashion. Yet I'm not going to side with the Celtics off of one impressive performance. Before that game they were showing signs of coming back to Earth. I like the floor balance of the Hornets to get the job done at home.

Orlando +1

            Orlando has had the ability to stay in games with much improved defense led by coach Scott Skiles. Their youth paired with veterans such as Channing Frye has meshed well. Houston has teased NBA ATS players all season and this is not a spot where I would back them on the road before a holiday. Grab the Magic to play with a concerted effort for four quarters.

OKC -2

A little over a week ago I mentioned that we will look for value plays on the Thunder. That started with a -2 spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in which the Thunder put a beating on the Grizzlies. I'm not expecting a blowout in this spot but I do see value once again in a Thunder team that is shaping into form. They undoubtedly have the second unit advantage over the Clippers, and I look for Westbrook/Durant to put on their typical show. Grab the Thunder.

Pepperdine +12

Year after year there are few teams in the WCC that give Gonzaga a hard time. Pepperdine is one of them. The returning talent of Stacy Davis, Murray, and Raines give Pepperdine veteran leadership to hang with the Zags. Pepperdine is the type of team that thrives in an open style game that the Zags present. This is far too many points. Grab Pepperdine.

Was going to leave today alone but we'll play the Saints.

New Orleans -2.5

The Saints abysmal season has continued to drop their value ATS. Once a guaranteed 6 point or higher favorite at home, they've become normal to be low favorites at home now. That is the case today against a Lions team that has fallen back to Earth after a late October-early November hot streak.   I like how the Saints have not mailed in their season and have begun to look like a team that will carry momentum into 2016. While the Lions are who they are. Grab the Saints as a MNF mid-day add.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

            Arizona has answered the bell time and time again in big spots ATS. Around a month ago they created distant separation in their division by defeating the Seahawks on the road. This team has thoughts of side stepping woes that caused their team to falter in 2013 and 2014. The Eagles may have won two games in a row but I do not believe their offense is capable of matching Arizona's. We'll grab the Cardinals Sunday night.

Denver Broncos +7.5

            The Steelers have won with so much ease that it seems like they're the AFC leader en route to a bye week. Yet that's not the case. They're 8-5 and have faced off against backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Brock Osweiler will be the third but the difference for Denver is they have the top defense in the NFL. Look for the Broncos to bring the Steelers offense down to Earth a bit. We'll grab the 7.5.

Baltimore Ravens +7

            Baltimore has had a disastrous season after years of winning football. A losing record may not look good overall but surprisingly they've been a decent ATS team. Getting seven at home against a Chiefs team that is red-hot is all the inflation I need. Look for Baltimore to play another tightly contested game. Win/loss they'll fall within the seven point spread.

Boston College -4.5

            Boston College will likely be the worst team in the ACC. They've dealt with transfers and had a hard time landing ACC quality recruits. Yet a matchup against Delaware should pose value for a team that will have their best chance to grab a win before conference play. Grab BC.

Georgia Tech -1

            Georgia Tech is a team that is getting extra value based on their subpar play a season ago. Yet their returning players have matured on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor. Georgia has shown flashes of great play over the last year and a half but look for the Yellow Jackets to have the upper hand Saturday.

Utah +6.5

            Duke's had an easy cupcake schedule over their last 3-4 games. Utah has the size and experience to give this young Duke team a battle. With big man Amile Jefferson sidelined this gives the Utes a depth advantage against Duke. Grab Utah to play this game more at their pace and keep within this number.

New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

            After the Suns steep loss to the Warriors on national tv and two losses recently to the Pelicans one would believe tonight is a great spot for the Suns. Instead now is an opportune time to step in against a team that is in a bit of a funk. The Suns have been getting over achieving play from several role players and now without their success the Suns limitations are exposed.  The Pelicans have already scored over 120 points in both wins against the Suns this season. Look for them to put on another show tonight.

South Carolina -2.5

This seems to be a spot that would see South Carolina fall from the unbeatens. Yet this South Carolina team finally has the mix of talent that Frank Martin wants. Clemson may be a better offensive team than a season ago but they're no where near the level of a defensive team. That's where South Carolina will be able to utilize their talent edge and retain their current undefeated season.

Bucks +11

                        Young teams are going to come out flat on their face from time to time. That happened to the Bucks yesterday against the poor dreadful Lakers. In the last week the Bucks have traveled to Toronto, defeated Golden State and made their trek down to California. I expect them to be mentally prepared tonight against a Clippers team that still is not putting teams away. Grab the Bucks.        

Chicago -3.5

                        Chicago's inability to cover spreads has finally dropped their value down to where we can take them. Memphis had a nice win the other night against Washington but has still lacked the same defensive intensity we saw in years past. This allowed run away wins for the Bobcats and Thunder recently. Look for Chicago's offense to have things rolling finally to lead them to a big win at home.

Add Brooklyn +4

Brooklyn may just have seven wins but they're getting upgraded play from Thaddeus Young. Miami has been successful against teams that run up and down the floor. That is not the Nets strength. The Nets like to slow the game down and have tall forwards and centers that will pose problems similar to the Heat's losses to the Pacers. Grab the Nets +4 at home.

Dallas Mavericks +5

                        The Mavericks are quietly ascending in a manner that will make Mark Cuban happy. Though they've won just five of their last ten games they're doing so with veterans playing much better. Deron Williams has looked refreshed and the Mavericks are getting increasing minutes from Chandler Parsons. They have the personnel to give Paul George a great battle for four quarters. When George is average the Pacers look like a completely different team. Grab the Mavericks on value of Indiana being 8-3 at home.

Orlando Magic -1.5

                        We're barely over the 20 game mark of the NBA season and perhaps no team has exceeded expectations more so than the Charlotte Bobcats. Yet they're just five games above .500 at 14-9. Orlando is a young bunch that has won seven of their last ten games---two of those losses were by slim margins to the Suns and Clippers. Grab the value on the Magic Wednesday.

12/15 04:35 PM  NBA   (701) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (702) BOSTON CELTICS (12/15  edit

Take: (701) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 

Reason: Play Cleveland -2 Tuesday in the NBA we'll look to grab the Cleveland Cavaliers against the red-hot Celtics. Boston has enjoyed solid wins over the Warriors and Bulls recently drawing up their value ATS. While Cleveland may not be in the same ATS position they were a season ago, one of the teams they had great success against was the Celtics. Look for Lebron and company to capitalize on the road with great defense to thwart the Celtics. Grab the Cavs -2.

12/14 05:30 PM  NFL   (133) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS (12/11 03:26 PM) edit

Take: (134) MIAMI DOLPHINS 

Reason: Play Dolphins +1.5 The NFC East is as tough as any division to figure out. One team that I won't buy in the division is the New York Giants. Believing a team can rectify their consistent issues in the fourth quarter is not a philosophy to approach in December. The Giants have lost five leads in the fourth quarter this season and are over rated ATS currently in my opinion. Miami is also stellar outside their division this season with a 5-2 record versus 0-5 against AFC East opponents. We'll grab the Fish.

12/14 04:05 PM  NBA   (501) TORONTO RAPTORS VS (502) INDIANA PACERS (12/14 01:43 PM) edit

Take: (501) TORONTO RAPTORS 

Reason: Play Toronto plus 5.5 We're going to add the Raptors on Monday against the Pacers as a mid-day play. Oddsmakers are obviously predicting that the Raptors hit a bit of a wall after a great stretch that included last night's 20 point win over the 76ers. I don't believe that will be the case as the Raptors have added a dimension of defense that has helped boost their output. With Indiana sliding we'll take the value of five on the Raptors.

12/13 01:25 PM  NFL   (129) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS (12/11 03:24 PM) edit

Take: (130) GREEN BAY PACKERS 

Reason: Play Packers -6.5 I commented on two teams before their surges to snare in the Seahawks against the Steelers which rolled over to last week's win against Minnesota and also the Packers who were fortunate to defeat the Lions. Yet, they are in great position at 8-4 to not only win the NFC North but possibly challenge the Cardinals for a bye week. They face the Cardinals soon and also the Vikings. Dallas just has not shown the dedication offensively to sustain battles against formidable offensive teams. Aaron Rodgers may not be getting top notch play from position players but sooner than later you have to expect his core group of receivers to come together for a big game. A few scores here at home and that will be too much for the Cowboys to match.

12/13 01:00 PM  CB   (725) YALE VS (726) USC  edit

Take: (725) YALE 

Reason: Play Yale plus 7 USC has done one of the best jobs in the country from where they were a season ago. They've already had a solid win over Wichita State and have looked the part for the first portion of the season. Sunday though I look for a sound Yale team to give the Trojans a competitive game. Look for Yale to stay within the number of seven for a Sunday cover.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS VS (114) CHICAGO BEARS (12/11 03:31 PM) edit

Take: (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

Reason: Play Washington +3.5 The team being counted out the most in the Redskins in the East is probably going to perform the best of the NFC East teams week fourteen. Washington faces a Bears team that is just 1-5 at home and plays to the style that their defense and offense has excelled against this season. Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to get back to a better style of offense after a far too conservative game plan against the Cowboys. The Bears are unconfident at home and a bit too banged up to back Sunday.

12/13 10:00 AM  NFL   (123) TENNESSEE TITANS VS (124) NEW YORK JETS edit

Take: (123) TENNESSEE TITANS 

Reason: Play Titans plus 7 We'll buy the Titans Sunday against the Jets getting a full touchdown. The transformation the Jets have undergone under new head coach Todd Bowles and journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a great story. Yet, they don't blow you away with the caliber of play they've displayed in their wins. This is a value play as the Jets likely would have been 5.5 point favorites had they not came back against the Giants last week. Mariotta has looked comfortable since Whisenhunt was fired and I expect him to be able to keep the Titans in Sunday's matchup. Grab the Titans.

Oregon +3.5

Saturday we will look for Oregon to put aside a shaky week and bounce back in an underdog role against Boise State. Boise State is still getting into the ebb and flow of offense with the loss of last year's point guard Marks and the return of a healthy Drmic. Oregon should be able to snap out of a poor slump offensively and defensively that cost them against UNLV, Fresno State, and nearly another ATS loss against Navy. Grab Oregon as a Saturday ATS CBB winner.

Arizona State +13

Kentucky continues to get patented John Calipari love ATS, but lets face it this Kentucky team is lacking the same potency offensively as in years past. Arizona State has carried over the same 'play up or play down' to the level of competition they face this season. That has been represented by close losses to Sacramento State and Marquette, while also a handful of close wins against Creighton, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, and NC State. They have the talent to hang with Kentucky for forty minutes. Don't be surprised for the Devils to be in this game until the final five minutes when Kentucky's talent outshines the Devils. It'll be enough to grab the Devils a cover.

12/11 06:35 PM  NBA   (721) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (722) PHOENIX SUNS (12/11 10:36 AM) edit

Take: (722) PHOENIX SUNS 

Reason: Play Phoenix -4 The Suns have defeated the Blazers thanks to a couple of great games in the fourth quarter. All contests have been close. Portland is a team that has to have playing a complete four quarters on their mind today. After losing both games in close fashion in late October the mindset may be that Portland has to come out and win this game from bettors. That's not the case here as the Suns have a better backcourt to the Trailblazers and are getting all around contributions from the entire roster. Buy the Suns to win their third game over the Trailblazers

12/11 04:35 PM  NBA   (709) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS (710) TORONTO RAPTORS (12/11 10:39 AM) edit

Take: (709) MILWAUKEE BUCKS 

Reason: Play Milwaukee +8 A strong showing in recent games by the Raptors against the Warriors and Spurs has this line a bit higher than it should be. Jason Kidd may not be as pleased with his young Bucks roster as he was a year ago but he will not give up on continuous coaching for his roster. Look for the Bucks to give the Raptors a game on a steep line.

12/09 04:35 PM  NBA   (707) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (708) TORONTO RAPTORS (12/09 edit

Take: (708) TORONTO RAPTORS 

Reason: Play Toronto +5.5 Sometimes bettors can get caught repeatedly with top tier teams. Monday the Spurs rested a bunch of starters as Coach Poppovich likes to do from time to time. The Spurs blew out the 76ers as ten point favorites with their bench players. So you figure with the starters rested and back in the lineup they'll handle the Raptors. Not so fast. Toronto is a very solid home team that has been the most formidable team to come close to beating the Warriors twice. They also get great support from their home crowd. We'll back the Raptors Wednesday as home dogs.

12/08 06:00 PM  CB   (539) MICHIGAN VS (540) SMU (12/07 08:35 PM) edit

Take: (539) MICHIGAN 

Reason: Play Michigan +8 This would seem like the perfect spot to grab an SMU team that played at a high level last season and has carried it over to a 6-0 start this year. But I believe Michigan can hang in this game with their offensive ability. SMU wins with athleticism and defense, but look for Michigan to have success in half court sets against SMU. Grab Michigan.

2/08 05:05 PM  NBA   (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (508) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES  edit

Take: (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

Reason: Play OKC -2 There comes a point were a team under achieving becomes valuable ATS. OKC is off of a close win Sunday and had lost consecutive games before hand. They're too talented to continue playing subpar. With depth on their side I find the value on the road against Memphis as slight favorites as a good spot for OKC. Grab the Thunder.

12/08 04:00 PM  CB   (521) WRIGHT STATE VS (522) XAVIER (12/07 08:25 PM) edit

Take: (521) WRIGHT STATE 

Reason: Play Wright State +21 For as good as an offensive team Xavier is, they lack defensive intensity for this large of a spread against the Horizon league Wright State. Wright State is a scrappy team that will battle for a full forty minutes. This line should be closer to 16-17.5, and I'll look for Wright State to keep this under 21. Grab Wright State.

12/08 04:00 PM  CB   (515) PENN STATE VS (516) GEORGE WASHINGTON (12/07 08:29 PM) edit

Take: (516) GEORGE WASHINGTON 

Reason: Play George Washington -11 I've been impressed by the level of play Penn State has exhibited this season but they have not faced a team close to the caliber of George Washington. George Washington has size, athleticism, and skill advantages in all phases over Penn State. Grab George Washington on Tuesday.