|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-26-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7||111-120||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
Being on Oklahoma State's side over the last few weeks has delivered plenty of profits for us.
Yet, on Thursday I can't bypass a Warriors team that went 73-9 in the regular season.
Golden State needs their team to uplift them with Steph Curry not at 100 percent. They did so against the Rockets and Trailblazers and surely have the capability to do so on their home floor in a must-win situation.
Oklahoma State has had great success but tackling a beast as such as the Warriors in this key spot is troublesome.
I for one did not agree with game one or two's spreads of 8 and 7.5. But in this instance the line may be too low and is high value off the Thunder's last two wins and Curry's healthy percentage.
Grab the Warriors.
|05-25-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||78-116||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
The past two games in Toronto featured the Raptors come together like they haven't the entire playoffs.
They frustrated the Cavaliers perimeter offense and found their rhythm offensively.
It took Cleveland nearly two entire games to adjust offensively from their perimeter playoff attack to more of a true regular season root.
At the end of the third quarter in game four, Cleveland finally stopped having the ball stick on the perimeter and moved the ball fluidly. The result was eleven straight made field goals in the fourth quarter.
As great as the Raptors turn around in the series has been there is no denying that this series hasn't been played to the level of a series tied at two games apiece.
|05-24-16||Warriors v. Thunder +2||94-118||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
Swayed value has finally occurred as the OKC Thunder have soared with dynamic performances against the Spurs and now Warriors.
This is a spot that can be tricky against the defending champions, yet they're at home and have thriving momentum.
I like the system changes Donovan has implemented, and clearly Durant/Westbrook have showcased they're on an extra level.
Look for the Thunder to carry over momentum and put the Warriors in a tough spot. Grab the Thunder.
|05-23-16||Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors||99-105||Loss||-107||24 h 44 m||Show|
We'll call game three a semi let down for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
They never got in rhythm offensively and lost focus on the defensive end. It was a flat performance against a team deservedly in a conference final.
Yet, Toronto's teased us all playoffs with one or two dynamic games every series.
I do expect Tyronn Lue to come back with a defensive plan to offset the Raptors transition game.
Offensively the Cavaliers should get back to the level we've seen all playoffs. Keep in mind the Raptors are a dinged up team and have been prone to severe offensive droughts throughout the playoffs.
Grab the Cavaliers.
|05-22-16||Warriors v. Thunder +3||105-133||Win||100||69 h 5 m||Show|
Golden State ignited in a big way game two which may cause people to forget game one.
OKC just did not have the counters offensively to stay in such a game on the road.
Do it all point guard Russ Westbrook had just a lone rebound which is not typical of the All-Star. Another anomaly for the Thunder was allowing fifteen offensive rebounds to the Warriors to just seven of their own.
Back at home I expect a much more balanced attack offensively and defensively that we've seen from the Thunder this post season.
Golden State's value ATS is still undetermined against a new and improved Thunder.
Take the value on the home dog.
|05-21-16||Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors||84-99||Loss||-109||3 h 41 m||Show|
Toronto's home court ability has helped them in the first two rounds.
Yet their offense has been a no-show thus far against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In game two yet again they allowed an end of quarter run that proved to be the difference ATS and for the game with a Cavaliers 14-2 run before half.
Give Coach Casey credit as he has tried tweaking the lineup in a plethora of ways.
While they may extend into the second half playing close with the Cavaliers, I do not anticipate them finishing the game off.
Take the Cavs to pull off a road win ATS Saturday.
|05-18-16||Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors||91-118||Loss||-105||18 h 23 m||Show|
Oklahoma City +8.5
This is a spot where Golden State assuredly has to respond on their home floor.
The pressure is on the defending national champion to not go down 2-0 before heading to Oklahoma City.
I'm not saying that will lose but the value still is on the Thunder's side.
They played a below standard game from my eyes and still prevailed outright in game one. There's a lot of improvement to expect in game two from a defensive stand point as well as from stars Kevin Durant/Russ Westbrook offensively.
The Warriors are who they are. They're going to feed off their crowd and go on igniting offensive surges as they thrive with small ball basketball.
OKC is fine with that tempo and realizes those spurts are inevitable.
They're able to combat runs with key stretches of getting to the free throw line and increasing their defensive intensity when needed.
I was stunned to see this line increase from game one. Now we've surpassed regular season odds of eight points which is mind numbing. Take the points yet again with the Thunder.
|05-17-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||84-115||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
Oddsmakers have surely made you think with a steep increase in value on the Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers meet a second team in the playoffs that have had their number in the regular season as Toronto defeated them twice.
Yet, this is a different Raptors team. Health is of concern with several players playing hurt and key big man in Valuncianus out with an ankle injury.
My main concern with the Raptors is the several player adjustments they've made in the past two rounds.
Against the Pacers Nolan Powell was taken out of the starting lineup. Against the Heat Biyombo was inserted due to injury to JV, meanwhile veteran Luis Scola did not play entirely after registering a 21 minute average in the regular season.
All of these adjustments have forced even higher pressure on the Raptors Lowry and DeRozan the strength of their bench to fade.
Grab the Cavaliers to bypass the rust of being off for eight days.
|05-16-16||Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors||108-102||Win||100||17 h 11 m||Show|
Subscribers should not be fooled here. I've talked about the Thunder's edge ATS for a gamut of games now. Oddsmaker's have failed to adjust.
The Warriors are a strong home team and the defending NBA champion.
Regular season numbers would showcase that the Warriors should be favored at the current line of 7.5 as they swept the Thunder three games to none.
Yet, this is a different Thunder team that is gaining confidence as they extend into the playoffs.
Billy Donovan's trust in his players is awfully similar to the trust Steve Kerr bestows on his Warriors.
Don't forget the Warriors missed out on Steph Curry's play in spots in both the first and second rounds.
The Thunder are healthy and have played well against Golden State this season. One loss the Thunder came back after being down eighteen in the third quarter and another Steph Curry nailed his miracle three pointer.
Grab the Thunder to match up well in game one as a half point differential from the regular season is a bit odd here.
|05-15-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||89-116||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
The Heat have rode the magic of great coaching and veterans to get to this stage of seven games.
They're a tough group but game seven is where the cream always rises to the top.
Frankly, I believe this series should have been over in five games by the Raptors.
For whatever reason they've continued to carry over rusty play from their Pacers series.
Luckily for them the Heat are at a high disadvantage without Hassan Whiteside. Coach Spoelstra quickly made adjustments in game six to a smaller lineup that thrived.
Yet, they also held the lead from the first quarter on.
On the road against a deficit could spell trouble quickly for the Heat.
How much more can the Heat get out of Wade, Dragic, Winslow, and Richardson?
The Raptors have thrived attacking the basket in games five and six since the loss of Whiteside. Look for that to continue in game seven and the rise of play from Lowry/DeRozan to shine.
|05-13-16||Raptors v. Heat -4||91-103||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
Miami Heat 546
The grueling series between the Heat and Raptors has been tough to watch from an offensive standpoint.
Miami seemed to falter in game five without Whiteside in the interior but still came close to pulling off another road win.
That's worrisome to me on Friday as the Raptors still don't look fluid enough offensively to finish off a series in less than seven games.
One thing of notice in game five was the fact that Josh Richardson and Justice Winslow found their confidence.
If they can carry that over into game six we could see a complete shift in the Heat's chances of winning this series outright.
From game six's standpoint look for the Heat's balance to outdo the Raptors and for Coach Spoelstra to have necessary adjustments to thwart the Raptors.
|05-12-16||Spurs v. Thunder +2||99-113||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
We see this all the time in other sports. Teams peak in the playoffs and can beat the best of the best teams.
It's happening right before our eyes with the Thunder and the Spurs.
For the Thunder to beat the Spurs twice on their home floor speaks volumes as the Spurs had lost only once all season.
They're getting it done with a college basketball mentality from Billy Donovan. He's giving the freedom necessarily needed to his star players in Durant/Westbrook and it's working.
While the Spurs long standing dominance is deserved of being favored, it's coming to an end Thursday.
Grab OKC to finish off the Spurs in grandiose fashion.
|05-11-16||Heat v. Raptors -4||91-99||Win||100||17 h 35 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors 538
There's an odd paradigm taking place in the Heat-Raptors series. The focus on the Heat has been the great resurrection of Dwayne Wade while with the Raptors the focus has been negative.
Continued poor shooting from All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have cast doubt on the Raptors.
Yet, I see things opposite. This series could easily have been over courtesy of a sweep from the Raptors if not from imploding in game four and playing rusty in game one.
Defensively they're flat out wearing down the Heat.
Wednesday, for the first time expect the Raptors to get their offense in gear both with the starters and bench.
They had success attacking the rim on Monday in particular with DeMar DeRozan who missed several gimme layup attempts.
Those will fall Wednesday as the Heat are not going to get away with utilizing Amare Stoudemire, Josh McRoberts, and Udonis Haslem as their triple threat interior players in consecutive games.
|05-10-16||Thunder +7 v. Spurs||95-91||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder 535
There has been superb basketball in the second round of the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately I've been on the side of some tight outcomes.
Tuesday, I see the Spurs and Thunder as likely the best spread in the second round yet.
Throughout the years the Spurs have been battle tested and responded in tough situations. They've also been a dominant home team.
Therefore oddsmakers had no choice but to offer a higher line than game one and two's set lines.
Market value would say to take the Thunder and that's where we'll go with Tuesday's selection.
OKC has the athletes and has changed their team chemistry with their defensive recognition.
Grab the value here on the Thunder as people expecting a game one scenario will be fooled on Tuesday.
|05-09-16||Warriors v. Blazers +4.5||132-125||Loss||-102||19 h 53 m||Show|
Portland Trailblazers 532
Can the Portland Trailblazers continue to sway momentum against the juggernaut Golden State Warriors?
Sure they can. Golden State will likely be without Steph Curry who is doubtful and believe the city of Portland will look to create another hostile environment.
Golden State typically has answers with their offense to combat teams but the Trailblazers have an uncanny skill set with two guards in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum who are causing havoc.
I don't see the Warriors slowing them down Monday. Also, the Trailblazers are receiving under valued play from Al Faroug Aminu, Plumlee, and reserve Allen Crabbe off the bench.
Don't fall for the bait of latching onto the Warriors ATS in game four.
|05-06-16||Spurs v. Thunder +2.5||100-96||Loss||-115||22 h 10 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder (520)
Maturity has never been a word linked with Oklahoma City Thunder stars Kevin Durant and Russ Westbrook.
Yet, it appears the Western Conference's dominance has reshaped their games and uplifted their team's play.
Winning on the road in San Antonio doesn't happen often and the Thunder accomplished that in game two.
The Spurs regular season success of 67 wins is the sole reason why they're favored Friday.
As stated in Saturday's free play winner, I expect the value beyond game one to continue to drift towards the Thunder.
They're a confident group that has the team balance to clear the Spurs Friday. Grab the Thunder.
|05-06-16||Cavs v. Hawks +3||121-108||Loss||-105||20 h 30 m||Show|
Atlanta Hawks (518)
Cleveland's historic three point night on Wednesday just adds to the mind boggling execution they've shown throughout the playoffs.
Seemingly Atlanta has to find answers in less than forty eight hours or they're going to be quickly finished by the Cavaliers.
Having lost nine straight to Cleveland you'd expect game three to handily go to the Cavaliers.
Not so fast as the Hawks have toyed with poor play in round one and in the regular season on the road against Cleveland. At home they've showcased to be a much more balanced and solid team.
Look for the Hawks to play a playoff level game and garner an ATS cover Friday.
|05-05-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||92-96||Loss||-100||25 h 4 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors (516)
All signs point to fade the Raptors. They've lost five straight ATS decisions and four of five at home.
It's a peculiar scenario as the Raptors were a dominant home team boasting a 32-9 regular season record.
Offensively their issues remain unsolved as they melted in a key third quarter stretch that proved to be the difference in game one.
Yet, I think the Heat are the team that will show ill effects offensively in game two. This is their fourth game in seven days and third on the road.
In game one Joe Johnson, D Wade, and Dragic shot sixty of their eighty nine team shots. That's a bit high and I'm not sure the Heat have the balance to find other solutions offensively.
Grab the Raptors to finally come to life and showcase their true depth against the tired Heat.
|05-04-16||Hawks +7 v. Cavs||98-123||Loss||-100||20 h 59 m||Show|
Game one between the Hawks and Cavaliers featured a lethargic Cavs team that still coasted to a double digit win.
With a game in the books you'd expect the Cavs to improve upon their lethargic game one and cruise in game two.
Not exactly. I believe this Hawks team found some confidence in their loss with key penetration from Dennis Schroder. Dating back to last year's playoffs this is a team that has now lost eight consecutive games to the Cavaliers.
Look for Atlanta to increase their defensive intensity and disrupt the fluid offense the Cavaliers have showcased in five playoff games.
Take the Hawks plus the points.
|05-02-16||Thunder v. Spurs -7.5||98-97||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
One would expect the OKC Thunder to raise their level of play following game one's blowout loss to the Spurs.
Although I did say in my free play winner that I do expect the Thunder to gain value as the series goes on, I don't see that happening in game two.
It's a quick turn around from Saturday's blowout loss and I just don't see the Thunder coming up with necessary adjustments on the road.
San Antonio's offense should continue to click on all cylinders which is the main story line in grabbing them as steep favorites at home Monday.
OKC's defense is a problem and until the Thunder can get Ibaka, Kanter, and Adams to buy-in it's going to be a troublesome beginning. Grab the Spurs to roll again.
|05-02-16||Hawks v. Cavs -7||93-104||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
Game one between the Cavs and Hawks begins today. I do have this one going seven games but in game one we'll look at the Cavaliers to come out with proper aggression.
After all the Cavaliers did sweep the regular season series and last year's Eastern Conference Finals four games to none.
Atlanta is going to have to adjust their style after struggling against the Celtics to showcase an offensive identity. In fact, only Kyle Korver shot above 41% in the Celtics series at the guard position.
Cleveland should be able to jump start game one and grab an ATS cover based on continued dominance in half court offensive sets. Grab the Cavaliers.
|05-01-16||Pacers v. Raptors -5.5||84-89||Loss||-105||14 h 59 m||Show|
In sports often times we see the same occurrence. A team lets a golden opportunity slip and eventually pays for it.
Indiana may have won game six on their home floor but in my opinion the series was lost in game five. That was a game they handily were ahead in and botched the fourth quarter entirely.
Toronto may not be playing their best basketball but they're in a game seven position on their home floor.
There's a reason low seeds don't advance to often. Toronto rides their home crowd and finds away to get into the second round. Take the Raptors.
|04-29-16||Raptors v. Pacers -2||83-101||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
Value lies with the Pacers on Friday in a crucial game six at home.
We all know the meltdown that occurred in the fourth quarter, but Indiana has completely dominated seven of the last eight quarters of the series.
Keep in mind at home Toronto was a juggernaut all season long as a fourth quarter team that rivaled the Warriors.
Surely if Indiana had won game five, they'd be a minimum 3.5 point favorites Friday.
I expect them to ride the need to win and get back to the defensive strengths they've showcased the past two games.
This series heads gets decided in seven games. Grab the Pacers.
|04-27-16||Hornets v. Heat -5.5||90-88||Loss||-106||19 h 9 m||Show|
Miami Heat (576)
The Hornets have made things interesting winning two games on their home floor. Yet all I believe that's done is create ATS value on the Heat the rest of the way.
Miami showcased in games one and two what they're capable of when they hone in defensively.
For whatever reason on the road they could not match that same level of intensity as guards Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker carved them up.
Quietly though they've bottled up the Hornets interior. In game four alone the Hornets Marvin Williams, Al Jefferson, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky, and Cody Zeller shot a combined nine for twenty eight from the field.
Look for the Heat to get the ebb and flow offense back at home and for the Hornets to suffer to sustain offense as a result.
|04-26-16||Pacers +7 v. Raptors||99-102||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
Indiana Pacers (569)
Indiana is coming off their best offensive output in terms of field goal percentage as they shot 47.1% in game four. In fact, the Raptors never crawled within double-digits in game four after trailing 28-16 at the end of the first quarter.
This series is now the best of three, and I see it even getting tighter than what we've seen.
With that in mind I think you have to toss out the Raptors superb 32-9 home record in the regular season.
Grab the value of the Pacers who have rotated their dialed in defense on the Raptors first unit and rolled it to the Raptors second unit as well.
|04-25-16||Clippers v. Blazers +4||84-98||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
I find it odd that this line has gained in value on the Trailblazers off of game three.
In game three the Trailblazers were just two point underdogs and now find themselves as 3.5 point underdogs.
The Clippers do have the better starting five but still are missing the ebb and flow you need on the road.
Keep in mind Blake Griffin is still getting acclimated after three and a half months off.
The bench has been sporadic and JJ Redick is coming off a poor performance in game three.
Portland has confidence and it's not just with their lethal guards in McCollum and Lillard. Mason Plumlee had a dominating game three in the interior with 21 rebounds and nine assists.
Grab the value on Portland and look for the Blazers to play even better than game three tonight.
|04-25-16||Heat v. Hornets -2||85-89||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
Even though the Hornets will be without Batum I still see value in the Hornets.
Sometimes a team can catch too much attention ATS with their first two home games.
Frankly that looks to be the case with the Miami Heat who throttled the Hornets on their home floor in games one and two.
Yet to win a series you need to showcase that capability with four wins not just two.
I have strong concerns with how the Heat looked in game three and the confidence they gave a Hornets team that is underrated offensively.
During the regular season they scored 103.4 points per game.
They have a skill set most playoff teams can't boast with two big men that can stretch the floor in Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky.
They're also getting great play from Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson off the bench.
The Hornets just lacked the energy in games one and two needed to pull off road wins.
Look for this series to draw even in become a series destined for seven games.
|04-23-16||Clippers v. Blazers +1.5||88-96||Win||100||16 h 9 m||Show|
Portland Trailblazers (552)
Saturday's lone play comes in the night cap between the Portland Trailblazers and LA Clippers.
Many thought the Trailblazers would give the Clippers difficulties to start the series in LA. That has not been the case as the Clippers offense has overwhelmed the Trailblazers along with cold shooting from Portland.
Yet, a series can change with a team's ability to defend their home court.
LA has seemingly been unchallenged since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup. In fact disregarding the final regular season game in which the starters sat out for rest, the Clippers have won eight consecutive games with Griffin in the lineup.
Grab Portland to get back in the series and defend their home floor as they've played far below their capabilities in LA.
|04-22-16||Hawks v. Celtics -2.5||103-111||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
Boston Celtics (542)
The Celtics offense has no where to go but up after another horrific offensive display in game two.
In fact, Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart combined to shoot just six for thirty-five from the field.
Things got so bad that Brad Stevens inserted rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter in extended minutes of playing time.
Rozier's twenty-four minutes were a season high and Hunter's the highest since December 26th.
Certainly the Celtics offensive woes are troublesome but lets not be blindsided by one game.
They overcame the same problems in game one to take a lead against the Hawks, and played well enough defensively in game two to make the game manageable.
Atlanta is an untrustworthy team on the road and I believe the Celtics will get enough done to support backing Friday.
|04-22-16||Cavs v. Pistons +5||101-91||Loss||-115||20 h 58 m||Show|
Detroit Pistons (540)
The eighth seed Detroit Pistons have given the Cavaliers two strong efforts and still came up short.
In Wednesday's loss the Cavaliers went nuts from three point range draining twenty attempts on thirty eight shots.
Igniting the spark from downtown was JR Smith who scored all seven of his baskets from three point range.
Yet, I like how the Pistons fought in the fourth quarter to fight close to the ten point closing line.
A key take away from the first two games is the fact that the Pistons have controlled the interior. Cavaliers Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov have combined to score two points along with seven rebounds in the first two games.
This is a short span from Wednesday's game two and I expect the Pistons to showcase the same energy they've brought forth in games one and two.
Don't expect the Cavaliers to stay red-hot from three. Grab the value on the Pistons.
|04-21-16||Warriors v. Rockets +5||96-97||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
Houston Rockets (538)
To me the Golden State Warriors may be a bit too cocky at this point. Even Coach Steve Kerr lamented that the depth of the Warriors is good enough to win without Stephen Curry.
The fact of the matter is without Curry the Warriors scoring needs two to three guys to fill the void.
That's a lot to be asked against a Rockets team that can score in bunches.
How will the Warriors react to a 40 point quarter from the Rockets?
I expect to see one game of solid four quarters of effort from the Rockets, and we'll get that today.
Too much is at stake with the media harping on Rockets players Dwight Howard and James Harden. I also believe the Rockets role players are more than capable of providing proper balance in a do or die game three.
Grab the value on the Rockets Thursday.
|04-21-16||Raptors -1 v. Pacers||101-85||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
There's a lot of people swaying from the Raptors to Pacers to take this series.
Look for that to reverse after game three.
In an NBA series things can change vastly from game to game. I like the tweaks Coach Duane Casey made in game two by replacing Norman Powell from the starting lineup but still giving him starters minutes.
It ignited the Raptors offense out the gate. Even though the offense tapered when Powell was inserted in the first half, in the second half he aided in the pull away run.
Defensively I also believe the Raptors are gaining ground on the Pacers. Indiana's limited behind the capabilities of Paul George. Veteran Monta Ellis shows flashes but is no longer a viable second-scoring option. Young players in Myles Turner and Solomon Hill are streaky role players which leaves Indiana vulnerable.
While Indiana may get out to a fast start, the Raptors depth will be too much for the Pacers.
This is a baiting line that will get many. Don't fall for it. Grab the Raptors.
|04-19-16||Celtics +6.5 v. Hawks||72-89||Loss||-104||18 h 40 m||Show|
Celtics Coach Brad Stevens hopes that his Celtics squad has figured out the conundrum of being down steep deficits.
In their latest games they've been down steep deficits to the Hornets, Miami Heat, and in game one against Atlanta.
In-game adjustments led to the Celtics storming back in game one against the Hawks and their regular season finale come back to defeat the Heat.
This is now the sixth matchup of the season between the Celtics and Hawks. Oddsmakers have continued to value the Hawks dominance of 4 wins to the Celtics 1 and I believe that's the wrong angle here.
Boston did lose Avery Bradley to a hamstring injury and are a bit banged up with Marcus Smart/Kelly Olynk.
Yet, the Hawks struggles to produce points at the two-guard position is troublesome. Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 1 for 18 in game one.
Look for the Celtics to reverse their track of being down early and continue to frustrate the perimeter offense of the Hawks.
Grab the value on the underdog here.
|04-18-16||Pacers v. Raptors -7||87-98||Win||100||16 h 45 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors (518)
It's been blowout city to start the NBA playoffs. One game that wasn't was between the Pacers and Raptors, as Indiana upset Toronto.
Paul George simply took over in game one with 33 points on twelve of twenty-two shooting. Meanwhile the Raptors stars in Demar Derozan and Kyle Lowry both shot abysmal from the floor.
That of course is not atypical of a Raptors team especially on their home floor. On the season they've had an impressive 32-9 record.
Monday, expect the need for a win combined with their home floor advantage to over power the seventh seed Pacers.
The reason the Pacers are a seventh seed is because of their continual inconsistencies. All season long they followed up wins with dud performances.
Grab Toronto on Monday.
|04-16-16||Celtics v. Hawks -5||101-102||Loss||-115||30 h 41 m||Show|
To start the NBA playoffs we'll look at the Atlanta Hawks in what is expected to be a long series against the Celtics.
I don't believe that will be the case as the Hawks dominated the Celtics in three regular season wins.
Defensively the Celtics gave up 116 points a game in those three losses which is well beyond their season average of allowing 102.5.
Even though both teams are 48-34, the depth advantage lies squarely with the Hawks.
Keep in mind this is the same team that won sixty games a season ago, and returns the same core group of talent.
Boston has bench production issues with Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynk, and David Lee. Fourth quarters have been detrimental to the Celtics as in those three losses they've been outscored by nine or more points to the tune of 103-68.
Grab the Hawks to set the tone game one against the Celtics.
|04-13-16||Heat v. Celtics -4||88-98||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
The Boston Celtics have a chance to create chaos in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding with a win at home today against the Heat.
Of course they could have been in better position if not for an embarrassing home loss on Monday against the Charlotte Hornets.
In the defeat the Celtics looked like the team in a back to back scenario and not the Hornets.
Yet, with two days of rest I believe the Celtics can take advantage of a Heat team that's played four games in six days.
One key to being in Vegas is the ability to watch multiple games every night. Harkening back to Boston's February 27th twelve point victory over the Heat, I'll use several key take aways for tonight's play.
In the win the Celtics played lethargic for three quarters and the start of the fourth quarter. You could say the Celtics were playing Miami Heat style of basketball as the Heat led by eight at the end of the first quarter and the game was tied at 82 with seven minutes remaining.
The Celtics finished the final seven minutes on a 19-7 run against a Heat team that wore down.
Look for the same recipe today as the Celtics should bounce back in solid fashion ATS.
|04-12-16||Grizzlies +8 v. Clippers||84-110||Loss||-110||21 h 18 m||Show|
Down the stretch of the season the majority of playoff teams are getting discussed except one…..Memphis.
Rightfully so as they are in poor shape minus key veterans in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
To make matters worse Tony Allen is nursing a hamstring injury and his status is unknown for Tuesday.
Still I love the value of the Grizzlies being an after thought as the playoffs near. Lets not forget the Clippers are getting acclimated to Blake Griffin back in the lineup which is skewing the ATS number a tad Tuesday.
Since returning to the lineup he is averaging ten points, six rebounds, and four assists a game.
Yet, team camaraderie is not one hundred percent. They caught the Wizards on the back end of a five game road trip, consecutive games against the Lakers, and survived match ups against the Mavericks and Jazz.
Look for the Grizzlies hunger to shine Tuesday, as they force the Clippers rotation into tough shots by playing their game. Grab the Grizzlies.
|04-12-16||Knicks v. Pacers -10||90-102||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
Tuesday, the Indiana Pacers will look to grab their third win of the season over the New York Knicks.
The Knicks have been disastrous post All Star break with a record of 9-17, but have played the Pacers tight in both match ups this season.
In Indiana they lost by three points and recently at home on April 3rd by five points. Yet, I've been waiting for the Pacers to hit another gear and it appears they're at that mark before the playoffs begin.
Their veteran trio of George Hill, Paul George, and Monta Ellis have been steady the majority of the season, but where there overall improvement lies ATS for Tuesday's matchup is their depth.
Rodney Stuckey and CJ Miles are now healthy. Also off the bench is key production with Solomon Hill, Myles Turner, and Ty Lawson. All are finding their offensive niche as teams defensive intensity wanes down the stretch.
The Pacers get the sweep and do so in big fashion.
|04-11-16||Kings +6.5 v. Suns||105-101||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
Monday, the Sacramento Kings head to Phoenix to take on the surging Suns. Phoenix has won consecutive road games as a double-digit underdog against the Houston Rockets and in blowout fashion against the Pelicans on Saturday.
In the efforts the Suns continue to see the bright future of young guard Devin Booker. Booker has averaged over twenty points per game since March 1st.
Yet, I believe we saw the peak capabilities of the Suns depleted roster talent in both of there recent wins.
The spotlight hovering around DeMarcus Cousins resting is creating the Suns high spread tonight. In the Kings last four games where Cousins has missed due to suspension or rest their only cover was a .5 point backdoor against the Miami Heat.
Still, I believe the Kings can thrive here against a Suns team returning home after five of seven road games. Expect a bit of rust from the Suns.
|04-10-16||Magic v. Heat -8.5||96-118||Win||100||12 h 42 m||Show|
04/10 03:05 PM NBA (513) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (514) MIAMI HEAT (04/10 03:27 AM) edit
|04-10-16||Hornets v. Wizards +5||98-113||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
04/10 09:05 AM NBA (501) CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS (502) WASHINGTON WIZARDS (04/10 03:26 AM) edit
|04-09-16||Warriors v. Grizzlies +13||100-99||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
Memphis Grizzlies (706)
The Grizzlies will try and prevent the Golden State Warriors historic quest of reaching 73 wins.
To do so they'll need to rely on veterans Matt Barnes, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter to slow down the Warriors assault.
Last night as 6.5 point underdogs they fell short against the Mavericks ATS as Dallas took over in the fourth quarter.
Yet, this is a Grizzlies team that has fought through adversity with season ending injuries to Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. Don't forget this decimated Grizzlies team defeated a Lebron James Cavaliers team in Cleveland on March 7th.
As potent as the Warriors are they're human. Defending their NBA title in the playoffs is their ultimate goal and I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat and mouse game through three quarters Saturday. Grab the Grizzlies.
|04-09-16||Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans||121-100||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
As you look around the NBA perhaps no team is as decimated with injuries as the New Orleans Pelicans. In fact, nine players fill the injury report. Yet, the Pelicans are getting solid contributions from unheralded players such as Tim Frazier, Dante Cunningham, and Alexis Anjinca.
Their recent surge included last night's win over the Lakers as well as a spirited effort in a fifteen point loss to the Celtics.
Yet, the Suns have the better depth and are playing with poise under interim Coach Earl Watson.
Thursday, they landed just their eighth road win of the season with superb effort as five players contributed in double-figures.
Look for another road victory to happen as the Suns boast an interior(Chandler/Len/PJ Tucker) and backcourt advantage(Booker/Goodwin) that should overwhelm the Pelicans. Grab the Suns.
|04-08-16||Bucks v. Celtics -10.5||109-124||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
Injuries continue to pile up for the Milwaukee Bucks. They'll be without Jerryd Bayless and forward Khris Middleton tonight against the Celtics. That's troublesome as the Bucks have struggled with floor spacing due to the lack of point guard contributions. Remember point guard Michael Carter-Williams is already out for the season with a hip injury.
Over the Bucks last two games they're just six for twenty three from three point range. At point guard they've had to use rookie Rashad Vaughn, who did not play that role in college at UNLV. Current backup Tyler Ennis still seems to be adjusting to the NBA level.
Boston seemed to have a hangover effect from their recent West Coast road trip when they nearly lost Wednesday as fifteen point favorites against the Pelicans. That won't be the case tonight as the Celtics should cruise here.
|04-08-16||Wizards v. Pistons -5.5||99-112||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
Tonight the Detroit Pistons will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards. In fact, their last meeting on March 14th was the Pistons worst loss of the season in a 124-81 beat down. Yet, Detroit is coming off an efficient game Wednesday in which six players scored in double figures. Essentially the Pistons have clinched the eighth seed in the East with a 2.5 game lead with three games left.
Look for the Wizards recent five game West Coast trip to also be a factor here tonight. Grab the Pistons to prevent a season sweep and avenge March's embarrassing 43 point loss.
|04-07-16||Raptors v. Hawks -7||87-95||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
Atlanta Hawks 704
An adage in sports is not to buy-in to what you last saw of a team. Last Wednesday-March 30th the Hawks were blitzed by the Toronto Raptors in an eight point 105-97 road loss. Inexplicably the Hawks got off to such a poor start that they trailed by twenty two points at the end of three quarters.
Statistically the Hawks did not shoot poorly as they shot 44.6% from the field. They were defeated in the x-factor categories. Eighteen turnovers did them in as well as a free throws made disadvantage as the Raptors made thirteen more.
I anticipate this faring much differently as the Toronto is 22-16 on the road versus 30-9 at home. Also, the Hawks are in need of a win as they're in a tight playoff race with the Celtics, Heat, and Hornets. All are separated by one game with the Hawks currently in the third spot. A loss tonight could potentially drop the Hawks down to the sixth spot.
Grab the Hawks to ride their balanced rotational attack with Al Horford, Paul Millsap, and Jeff Teague and avenge last Wednesday's loss.
|04-06-16||Hornets -5 v. Knicks||111-97||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
Today's lone isolation ATS play comes between the Hornets and Knicks. The Hornets are coming off a tough road loss in which they shot the ball poorly against the Raptors. Yet, I think they'll respond in a big way on the road in MSG against a Knicks team that has over achieved down the stretch. Look for the Hornets to get shots to fall Wednesday and hurdle the Knicks with ease.
|04-05-16||Cavs v. Bucks +6.5||109-80||Loss||-100||9 h 7 m||Show|
Play NBA Milwaukee (712)
Lets face it there are five games remaining on the season for the Cavaliers. All may seem well with the fact that the Cavs have won eleven of their last fourteen, but it's apparent Lebron James may be in for his toughest playoff run yet. In their latest victory over the Hornets the Cavs received over 25 points from James, JR Smith, and K Love on 50 percent or better shooting. Yet, as has been the case in several instances the Cavs let a near 20 point lead evaporate. Milwaukee is a battling team and should give the Cavs a worthwhile game
|04-05-16||Pelicans v. 76ers -2.5||93-107||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
Play Philadelphia 76ers (702)
To conclude the season the 76ers have exhibited pride in comebacks recently against the Pacers and Hornets. Both times they fell short but I believe there is hunger from the team to reach double digit wins. This is their best shot against a Pelicans team decimated by injuries. Grab the 76ers young lineup in a peculiar spot as a favorite to win.
|04-04-16||Villanova v. North Carolina -2||77-74||Loss||-101||6 h 10 m||Show|
Tonight concludes yet another March Madness as the Villanova Wildcats take on North Carolina. The Wildcats have played like a one seed all tournament and are coming off a blowout win against Oklahoma. Postgame the Wildcats admitted there game against the Sooners earlier in the season helped with Saturday's game plan immensely. In a forty eight hour turn around how will the Wildcats respond against the cool natured Tar Heels? What changed the Tar Heels season is why I'll lean on them tonight…defense. Once the Tar Heels stopped being lazy on defense towards the mid-portion of ACC play is when they entered another gear. The Tar Heels wear teams down with their depth, top tier offense, and strong defense. In the blink of an eye a small deficit can turn into a double digit lead. They have 3-4 spurts a game that no team in the tournament can match. Grab the Tar Heels to cut the nets.
|04-03-16||Bulls +2.5 v. Bucks||102-98||Win||100||5 h 17 m||Show|
04/03 04:05 PM NBA (515) CHICAGO BULLS VS (516) MILWAUKEE BUCKS (04/03 10:51 AM) edit
|04-03-16||Thunder -3 v. Rockets||110-118||Loss||-105||2 h 48 m||Show|
04/03 12:35 PM NBA (507) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (508) HOUSTON ROCKETS (04/03 10:51 AM) edit
|04-03-16||Wizards v. Clippers -6||109-114||Loss||-109||2 h 47 m||Show|
04/03 12:35 PM NBA (509) WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS (510) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (04/03 10:50 AM) edit
|04-02-16||Syracuse +9.5 v. North Carolina||66-83||Loss||-110||23 h 15 m||Show|
In the second Final Four matchup we'll lean on the streaking Syracuse Orangemen against UNC. Of course UNC is the prohibitive favorite with a potent offensive team. Yet, there were times this season against team basketball that they suffered---Virginia/Northern Iowa. Currently, Syracuse is playing team basketball at all five positions on both ends of the floor. I like they're momentum enough to grab them here as a near double-digit underdog.
|04-02-16||Villanova v. Oklahoma +2||95-51||Loss||-105||20 h 25 m||Show|
The Wildcats journey to the Final Four has put them on the precipice of a National Championship. They've got to this point with opposite style performances in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. In the Sweet 16 they showcased potent offense to dismantle the Hurricanes, while against the Jayhawks they used suffocating half-court defense. As a result in my opinion Oklahoma is a team being overlooked here, as they had a dominating regular season win over the Wildcats. Look for Jay Wright's team to settle in offensively and defensively from their Sweet 16 performances. That won't be enough to hurdle the Sooners.
|04-01-16||Heat -6.5 v. Kings||112-106||Loss||-115||6 h 17 m||Show|
Friday in the NBA Association we'll look for the Heat to bounce back on the road against Sacramento. The Heat lost against an emotional Lakers team amidst a team rift and the conclusion of Kobe Bryant's career. Out in Sacramento there is also a rift occurring but it's one that does not bode well for the home team. Team chemistry has been long gone and George Karl appears to be on the hot seat yet again. Grab the Heat to take care of business Friday in Sacramento..
|04-01-16||Nets +5.5 v. Knicks||91-105||Loss||-103||4 h 49 m||Show|
04/01 04:35 PM NBA (503) BROOKLYN NETS VS (504) NEW YORK KNICKS (04/01 PM) edit
|03-31-16||George Washington +2.5 v. Valparaiso||76-60||Win||100||4 h 40 m||Show|
03/31 04:00 PM CB (713) GEORGE WASHINGTON VS (714) VALPARAISO (03/31 12:27 PM) edit
|03-29-16||Nets +6.5 v. Magic||105-139||Loss||-103||8 h 1 m||Show|
Victor Oladipo's return to the lineup has inflated tonight's spread on the Magic's side. Brooklyn did play last night against Miami but I like the way the Nets are evaluating their roster. Eleven players played ten minutes or greater as interim Coach Tony Brown looks for the talent the Nets will keep next season. I can't back a team that's lost ten of thirteen ATS in this spot. Grab the Nets
|03-28-16||East Tennessee State v. Louisiana Tech -2.5||88-83||Loss||-108||11 h 10 m||Show|
03/28 08:30 PM CB (597) EAST TENN STATE VS (598) LOUISIANA TECH (03/28 09:36 AM) edit
|03-28-16||Kings +11 v. Blazers||93-105||Loss||-105||10 h 33 m||Show|
Sacramento plays in their third straight game tonight as they travel to Portland. The Kings have won two consecutive games by double digit fashion against the Mavericks and Suns. There's obvious ATS value here as the Kings likely would be 8.5 point dogs on a normal night. Due to the Trailblazers bench shooting woes with Crabbe/Henderson I'll grab the Kings.
|03-28-16||Suns +7 v. Wolves||116-121||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
Monday, we'll grab the Phoenix Suns on the road against the Timberwolves. Minnesota's youth is truly shining as of late but I like the grit the young Suns have showcased. Their record may be poor but they're not playing with tank mode in mind like some other teams are. Grab the Suns in a value spot of seven points.
|03-28-16||Thunder -2.5 v. Raptors||119-100||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
Toronto is one of the few teams I usually veer from going against on their home floor. Yet, OKC is playing at an elite enough level that I am willing to back them as a small favorite here. They'll need to be ready for a few solid runs from the Raptors but I expect their depth to match the home team. Grab OKC.
|03-28-16||Nets v. Heat -9.5||99-110||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
On the season the Nets and Heat have played three close games against each other. So you'd figure the Nets would give the Heat another close game late in the season. Not exactly. The Nets are too reliant on young players and D-League call ups compared to other season matchups. Don't fall for the line trap here. Grab the Heat.
|03-26-16||Villanova v. Kansas -2||64-59||Loss||-106||5 h 37 m||Show|
Today we'll grab the Jayhawks against the surging Wildcats. Villanova may be playing their best basketball currently but now is the stage of top teams. Miami succumbed to poor perimeter defense which I expect the Jayhawks to ensure is not the lone skillset Saturday. Offensively Kansas should be able to frustrate the Wildcats similar to Big East opponents in Providence, Xavier, and Seton Hall. Also don't forget Oklahoma blew out the Wildcats earlier in the season. Grab Kansas.
|03-25-16||Wisconsin +1.5 v. Notre Dame||56-61||Loss||-105||3 h 2 m||Show|
Wisconsin in my opinion is set to be this year's improbable March Madness story. Before the tournament Notre Dame was everyone's overrated team to get knocked off opening weekend. The defeated Michigan after being down twelve at halftime and needed a tip-in in the final minute to beat Stephen F Austin. Wisconsin is as disciplined as a team there is in the tournament. Poor stretches Notre Dame has shown in this tournament will not be able to be made up for this time. Grab the Badgers.
|03-25-16||Iowa State v. Virginia -6||71-84||Win||100||3 h 47 m||Show|
While bettors of the ACC will likely square in on North Carolina or Syracuse, I'll side with Virginia. The Cavaliers don't have the lure of either team but they have the 'monkey off the back' look similar to Villanova. Iowa State does have a balanced attack but this is the time period where even Fred Hoiberg's better teams would fall apart in the tournament. Virginia will make the half-court game difficult for Iowa State. Without shots falling the Cyclones could get embarrassed against an underrated Cavaliers offense.
|03-24-16||Duke v. Oregon -3||68-82||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
The defending National Champions are facing an Oregon Ducks team no one truly knows the value on. They've covered twelve of their last eighteen and that should continue tonight against Duke's limited depth. It's not the offense of the Blue Devils I'm worried about thriving but their defense. Oregon is a spurt team and in the second half I don't see the Blue Devils having a response for a third or fourth run.
|03-24-16||Maryland v. Kansas -5.5||63-79||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
Maryland getting to the Sweet 16 would not have been a shocker in December but they're here based on great matchups against double-digit seeds in Hawaii and South Dakota State. Kansas passed what I thought would be their toughest test in the early portion of the tournament against UConn. While the Terrapins defense may give the Jayhawks trouble the offense of the Terrapins is too subpar to back as a 5.5 point dog. Grab Kansas.
|03-24-16||Miami (Fla) +4.5 v. Villanova||69-92||Loss||-110||2 h 14 m||Show|
Villanova got out the round of 32 with terrific offense against an overwhelmed Iowa team. Today that should be different against a Miami Hurricanes team that matches Villanova's guard strength. Miami has four guards that defend the three-point line well and will make things difficult for a Villanova team use to thriving at the position. Grab the Hurricanes to continue to be March Madness odd success story.
|03-23-16||Mavs +6 v. Blazers||103-109||Push||0||7 h 48 m||Show|
Play Dallas +6.5
Dallas defeated the Trailblazers in overtime on their home floor a few nights ago and tonight they're catching 6.5. That's a head scratcher to me as the Mavericks have faced possibly the toughest schedule of any team over the last two weeks. Games against the Cavs, Warriors, OKC, etc. I think their veteran team is blossoming at the right time and will give the Blazers another good game in Portland.
|03-23-16||Lakers +5.5 v. Suns||107-119||Loss||-108||7 h 46 m||Show|
Play Lakers +5.5
The Lakers grabbed us an ATS win last night and we'll look for them to repeat against the Suns. Phoenix has grabbed some ATS value after impressive performances as steep underdogs over the last three weeks. The return of Brandon Knight and boosted play of guard Devin Booker has helped. Yet it doesn't take away the fact that the Suns have a poor front line and are prone to poor defense. The Lakers aren't much better but this is a rare spot where I'll back a team playing on consecutive nights. I like the offensive fire power the Lakers have showcased and believe they can build a sustainable early lead against the Suns.
|03-23-16||Knicks v. Bulls -8.5||115-107||Loss||-102||5 h 47 m||Show|
Play Bulls -8.5
Chicago's Fred Hoiberg has tweaked the starting lineup numerous times due to Bulls injuries. Depth has grown for the Bulls bench as a result of the plethora of injuries on the season. Confidence with young players such as Bobby Portis, McDermott, and others is there with consistency to spell the veteran Bulls. Tonight they should pile on a Knicks team that lacks depth and is changing over for next year.
|03-23-16||Florida v. George Washington -1.5||77-82||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
Play George Washington -1.5
George Washington is a team that surprisingly did not make March Madness. They have balance at all five positions and adequate support with two players off the bench. You're typically going to get yourselves in trouble in the NIT snaring a power conference lackluster school such as Florida versus a smaller school veteran team. Grab George Washington to advance past the NIT quarterfinals.
|03-22-16||Grizzlies v. Lakers +3||100-107||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
Today we'll grab the Lakers as slight home underdogs against the Grizzlies. The Lakers took a beating against the Grizzlies a few weeks back on the road and at home. Yet, I believe today they'll respond with better offense against a Grizzlies team with a completely different nucleus of players. Grab the Lakers at home tonight
|03-22-16||Creighton v. BYU -4.5||82-88||Win||100||6 h 48 m||Show|
Creighton has showcased a stout defense in the NIT but will go up against a quartet of scorers in BYU. Look for the Cougars prolific offense to get the BlueJays on their heels tonight. Grab the Cougars to defend their home floor
|03-22-16||Rockets +9.5 v. Thunder||107-111||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
Earlier in the season we had a heart breaking push on the Rockets against the Thunder in the +8 range. Tonight they're getting an extra two points on the road as the Thunder are in the midst of one of their better stretches of the season. Yet I can't pass up the value here on the Rockets who are in need of a competitive game. Grab Houston.
|03-22-16||Heat -9 v. Pelicans||113-99||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
Tonight the Heat are steep favorites against the Pelicans. New Orleans have done a great job without Anthony Davis and are coming off solid outings against the Kings and Clippers. Yet tonight will be a challenge against the Heat. Miami's been winning ugly before sparking in a key blowout win over the Cavaliers. I like the momentum they are showcasing which should carry over against an over valued Pelicans team.
|03-22-16||Hornets -6 v. Nets||105-100||Loss||-102||4 h 17 m||Show|
Charlotte won in comeback fashion last night over the Spurs from a steep deficit. In the game the starters struggled on the offensive end. Luckily Jeremy Lin picked up the slack for the Bobcats. Tonight we should see the starters back in gear against a Nets team that has lost the ebb and flow once showcased three weeks ago.
|03-20-16||Northern Iowa +7.5 v. Texas A&M||88-92||Win||100||4 h 22 m||Show|
Northern Iowa +7.5
Two veteran teams go against each other in Northern Iowa and Texas A&M. One of the problems at the tail end of January and early February for the Aggies was playing to the level of competition. Setting the tone with pace they want to play is difficult. It actually occurred in the last game against Green Bay as the Phoenix led 24-16 midway through the first half. A depth advantage wore down the Phoenix. Here that's not the case and I look for the Panthers to dictate tempo for forty minutes. Grab Northern Iowa.
|03-20-16||Hawaii v. Maryland -7.5||60-73||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
Maryland -7 (Buy the Hook)
All season long onlookers were wondering what's wrong with Maryland. Now we're beginning to see one of the main reasons. The Big 10 style of play just did not bode well for the Terrapins, as teams slowed the ball down. Now we're seeing the majority of those teams knocked out of the tournament besides Indiana who pushes the ball. Remaining teams left fit the style that Maryland can flourish against. Don't fall for the trap of Hawaii as Maryland should cruise in a stylistic offensive performance.
|03-20-16||Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse -6||50-75||Win||101||3 h 32 m||Show|
Not enough credit goes to assistants and strength and conditioning coaches. When I watch Syracuse I see a team that looks as the best physically conditioned team in the country outside of Kansas. An old adage in sports is what you saw last is not what you see tomorrow. Middle Tennessee scored at will against Michigan State and led the entire game. Syracuse is a different beast with a zone defense and an offense that goes beyond one or two scorers as in years past. Boeheim has five guys that can score in double figures on any given night including two freshman peaking in Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon. Balance defensively and offensively will be too much for fifteenth seed Middle Tennessee.
|03-20-16||VCU v. Oklahoma -6||81-85||Loss||-100||2 h 36 m||Show|
VCU's turn around to their season is something their veteran players in MO Alie Cox and JeQuan Lewis can hang their hats on. Will Wade's decision to move Lewis to shooting guard a dozen games ago was truly a brilliant move. It freed up better opportunities offensively for the Rams. Yet, Oklahoma is a poor matchup for them. The Sooners are too potent of a team at all five positions which is troublesome for a gritty Rams team. Hield who has been quiet for the last couple of weeks should have a noteworthy 'March Madness signature' performance today. Grab the Sooners
|03-19-16||Providence +11 v. North Carolina||66-85||Loss||-100||7 h 3 m||Show|
Tonight we'll grab the Friars as Saturday's lone ATS play. Through the aftermath of all the chaos of upsets the top seeds were unscathed. All covered ATS in Kansas, Oregon, and Virginia. The lone team not to cover was North Carolina against FGCU. The veteran Tar Heels just are in a tough region. The 16th seed FGCU was not a true sixteen seed and the Friars are not a true 9 seed. Providence at one time was ranked in the top ten and feature two NBA players in Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn. Perhaps no other team featured extended role players in the second round the fed off of NBA caliber talent as strong as the Friars did against USC. I believe that continues Saturday night as the Friars have been a team that has exhibited effort for forty minutes all season long. Grab the Friars.
|03-18-16||Cincinnati -3 v. St Joseph's||76-78||Loss||-110||9 h 53 m||Show|
I liked this point spread at 1.5 and have it as the biggest misread line of the second round. I envisioned this game more in the 5.5 range on Cincinnati's side. Yet when a team wins a conference tournament with senior talent as St. Joseph's has you're going to see value drop. But the Bearcats defense is that St. Joseph's is not accustomed to in the Atlantic 10. I may have passed on this game if the Bearcats offense was of form of year's past, but I think Cronin has recruited better on that end of the floor. Grab the Bearcats.
|03-18-16||Warriors v. Mavs +9.5||130-112||Loss||-105||7 h 12 m||Show|
No one knows what to make of the Mavericks veteran team. A lot likely will change with the team this offseason but they're still showcasing heart on any given night. I like the fact that they did not let up on the road down 18 multiple times to the Cavs. Many people would see that as an extreme disadvantage against the hot shooting Warriors but I see it as an opportunity back on their home floor. Grab the value here with the Mavericks.
|03-18-16||Kings v. Pistons -7||108-115||Push||0||6 h 13 m||Show|
Detroit's rusty play lately presents value on their home floor against a team performing as poorly as anyone in the Sacramento Kings. Detroit's faced some tough defensive teams as of late which has attributed too poorer defense on their part. Tonight they'll get easy shots and poor shot attempts/turnovers from the Kings. Grab Detroit.
|03-18-16||Green Bay v. Texas A&M -13||65-92||Win||101||6 h 59 m||Show|
Texas A&M -13
There is not a conference that featured more of a style of an NBA summer league format than the Horizon. Up tempo run and gun teams with little defense. Green Bay rode their offense to a Horizon league conference tournament title but today will face a veteran defensive minded team in A&M. Though Green Bay can score I'm not keen on their defensive abilities for forty minutes. Grab A&M to pull away in this one late.
|03-18-16||Stephen F Austin +7 v. West Virginia||70-56||Win||100||6 h 49 m||Show|
Stephen F Austin +7.5
The Big 12 was a superb conference but West Virginia may have been the most over rated of the bunch. Stephen F Austin is the consistent yearly tournament small school that gets over looked to the Wichita State's, Davidson's, and Northern Iowa's of the world. They'll be prepared and played very well against the VCU press two years ago. Grab the value on Stephen F Austin.
|03-17-16||Providence v. USC +2||70-69||Win||100||6 h 29 m||Show|
Tonight we'll grab USC of the Pac-12 against Providence. The Friars are a team that has caught bettors eyes the entire season. They soared to the top top in non-conference with a win over Arizona and a 14-1 record. After a decline in conference play they caught eyes again with a road win as 14 point underdogs to Villanova. Yet, the Friars struggle to score consistently and perhaps got away with that in a Big East conference that has several teams in that same boat. One team that did not was Xavier who cruised in two wins against the Friars. USC has a similar scoring balance as the Musketeers and boast six athletes that average double figures. Look for the Trojans offense to be too much as the Friars attempt to play catch up. Grab USC.
|03-17-16||Fresno State v. Utah -9||69-80||Win||100||5 h 39 m||Show|
The Pac-12 representative Utah Utes have shown great strides as of late. They did lose in the Pac-12 championship in a blowout fashion to Oregon, but overall I like the track they've shown. Fresno State is not a juggernaut shooting team and relies heavily on seniors Marvelle Harris and Guerrero. While a terrific tandem that will attract ATS money, I like the camaraderie of the Utes to prevail ATS. They'll be able to win the interior/perimeter scoring battle along with trips to the free throw line.
|03-17-16||Nuggets v. Hawks -7.5||98-116||Win||100||5 h 33 m||Show|
We'll grab the Hawks today against a Denver team that has had a few days off since losing to Miami. They did perform well in that game but played against a lackluster Heat team as Joe Johnson has hurt their defense and it was D Wade's returning game.
|03-16-16||Pelicans v. Kings -4||123-108||Loss||-107||7 h 22 m||Show|
The Kings have had a down period but today we'll grab them against the Pelicans at home. Expect little defense and lots of scoring as neither team is a defensive juggernaut. Yet, I expect the Kings to regain some of the form we saw from them before the All-Star break. Rudy Gay is bound to get back on track tonight.
|03-16-16||Mavs v. Cavs -9.5||98-99||Loss||-105||4 h 22 m||Show|
03/16 04:05 PM NBA (603) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (604) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (03/16 11:47 AM) edit
|03-14-16||Pistons +1.5 v. Wizards||81-124||Loss||-105||3 h 43 m||Show|
Detroit Pistons +1.5
Detroit's one of those teams that when you want to discount they're going to show up in a big way. I believe they'll do that today after laying a dud a couple of times in the past week. Stanley Johnson is back and I like the backcourt advantage the Pistons have with Jackson/Pope over a tiresome Wizards John Wall led team. Grab Detroit
|03-14-16||Nuggets v. Heat -6.5||119-124||Loss||-110||2 h 13 m||Show|
Miami Heat -6.5
The Heat been an up and down team but still are playing well even in losses. They return home today against a Denver team that has reshuffled pieces since the All-Star break. Young players such as Gary Harris and rookie Mudiay should struggle against the hustle extended depth of the Heat. Grab Miami
|03-13-16||Pacers v. Hawks -4.5||75-104||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
In the last matchup of the Hawks and Pacers we grabbed a slight backdoor cover on the Hawks in thrilling fashion. The Pacers controlled the game the majority of the way before slipping in the last three minutes. Even though the Pacers are playing better than what we saw originally post All-Star break I'm still leery of backing them here. Both teams are coming off games yesterday and I believe the Hawks are worthy backing on their home floor again. Grab the Hawks.
|03-13-16||Memphis v. Connecticut -5.5||58-72||Win||100||2 h 26 m||Show|
The Huskies are doing what they typically do in March and that is improve by the game. They've covered in three consecutive games against Central Florida, Cincy, and Temple. Sunday, they get the matchup they want again against a Memphis team they've defeated twice on the season. With the Huskies improved offense look for Kevin Ollie's pressure defense to take its toll on the Tigers. Grab UConn
|03-13-16||Purdue +5 v. Michigan State||62-66||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
Will there be a surprise upset in the Big Ten championship? Lets face it the Spartans are involved in the last game Sunday hours before Selection Sunday. While I doubt they'll be less motivated the superior challenge is there against a Purdue team that rattled the Spartans a few weeks ago. This should be a back and forth contest in which I'll take the Boilermakers extra motivation to get a higher tournament.
|03-12-16||Buffalo v. Akron -4.5||64-61||Loss||-105||4 h 20 m||Show|
In the MAC Championship I'll grab the value on Akron against surging Buffalo. Buffalo defeated Ohio last night and has confidence from being in the Big Dance a season ago. Conference regular season champion Akron has struggled in the conference tournament down 12 to Eastern Michigan with under ten minutes to go, and yesterday surviving against 12th seeded Bowling Green. Yet, today I believe their team balance will be a problem for Buffalo. Grab Akron to win the MAC.