Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the Celtics, who are back at home and facing elimination. This will be the fourth time the team has faced elimination this postseason and obviously they have gone 3-0 the previous three times. They are 3-0 ATS in those three wins as well, two of them coming on the road, including a Game 7 in Miami. (Also beat Milwaukee in Games 6 and 7 in the Conference Semis). This will be the 1st time in the postseason where the C’s are off B2B SU losses as prior to losing Game 5, they had been 7-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss. I can’t see them losing at home in this spot, so lay the points. There have been five times in this postseason run that Boston has found itself down in the series. All five times they won and covered the spread. This is the first time in the NBA Finals that they’ve been behind in the series. One could argue that they should have won both prior games here at home. They cruised to a 116-100 victory in Game 3, then led most of the way in Game 4 (before falling apart down the stretch). You have to anticipate that the Celtics will shoot better than 41.3%, which is where they finished in Game 5. They were also a series-worst 11 of 32 from three-point range (34.4%). Going into Game 5, the Celtics were 10-2 ATS this season when off a double digit defeat. They’ve been held under 100 points in back to back games, which is something that I can’t see happening again. Now, with the Warriors having gone 9 of 40 from three-point range in the last game (including 0 of 9 from Steph Curry), Boston will have to be prepared for Golden State to score more as well. But I think they’re up for the challenge and while the Dubs are very likely to shoot better than 22.5% from behind the arc, they may not hit 46.6% overall (a series high) like they did in Game 5. Golden State is just 2-6 ATS its L8 road games. 10* Boston |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): I’m still a believer in Boston winning this series, so taking the points in Game 5 seems like the logical call. The Celtics still sport the higher net efficiency rating in the playoffs, even after losing Game 4. They’ve outscored opponents by six points per 100 possessions while Golden State is at just 3.9. While Game 4 was at home, remember that the Celtics did lead most of the way, until falling prey to a Steph Curry fourth quarter barrage. The Warriors are only averaging 103.5 PPG against Boston in six meetings this year. I just think taking the points is the way to go here. Of course, supporting a play on the Celtics here is the fact they have yet to suffer B2B losses in the playoffs. Since sweeping Brooklyn, they’ve gone a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss and five of those seven wins have been by double digits. Only one, Game 7 vs. Miami, was by fewer than eight points. Going back even further, the Celtics are 15-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss. Boston had too many turnovers in Game 4. It’s something we’ve seen from them before in these playoffs and it usually ends in defeat. But the good news is that they almost always clean up the “turnover bug” the next game. The Celtics also shot just 40% from the field in Game 4, a number they will improve upon Monday night. They continue to shoot well from three; it was a disappointing 19 of 47 from inside the arc that cost them in the last game. This team is 33-17-2 ATS on the road. 10* Boston |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:00 ET): We know that the Celtics have yet to lose B2B games this postseason. They’re now 7-0 SU/ATS following a loss after downing the Warriors 116-100 Wednesday night in Game 3. That win also puts them up 2-1 in the NBA Finals. If Boston is to win the NBA Championship, I think tonight's game is of critical importance. If they don’t win here, then they’re going to have to win again at Golden State, which is not easy to do. As I said at the outset of the series (I had Boston in Game 1), I feel the Celtics have been the better team all season - posting a better scoring differential and net efficiency rating than the Warriors. I’m laying the points in Game 4. The fact that Boston is up in the series despite Steph Curry averaging more than 30 PPG is a positive sign, in my view. Curry is now banged up, with an unspecified injury that he suffered near the end of Game 3. He’s vowed to play tonight, but will he be at 100 percent? The last three games have been the best stretch of three-point shooting from Curry in the playoffs and my gut tells me that he was “due” for an off-night anyways. Remember how good Boston is defensively; they were #1 in scoring defense during the regular season and have been even stingier in the playoffs, allowing only 101.6 PPG. In five meetings with the Celtics this season, Golden State has only averaged 102.8 PPG. The Warriors’ defense isn’t nearly as good on the road as it is at home and we saw them let the Celtics shoot 48.3% from the floor in Game 3. Boston has also made 49 threes in three games, shooting 43% from behind the arc. Golden State has been pretty similar, but was expected to be ahead in that department and, as I said earlier, I believe Curry is set to regress. The Warriors, surprisingly, are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. They’ve lost four of the last five outright. 10* Boston |
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06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
10* Boston (9:05 ET): Looking at the respective seasons, I think the Celtics are better than the Warriors. The numbers bear this out, not just for the playoffs, but the regular season as well. In the regular season, Boston had the better net efficiency rating (+8.1 vs. +6.6) while in the playoffs, that advantage is now +6.6 to +5.2. Taking that into careful consideration and the fact that the public seems OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of the Warriors here, I’ll be taking the points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. These were the top two teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Boston was #1 in scoring defense. In the playoffs, giving up just 101 PPG, the Celtics have moved well past the Warriors in terms of defensive efficiency. I also think that Boston had the far tougher path to get here, ousting Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Phoenix while GS only had to get past Denver, Memphis and Dallas. The fact that Boston is coming off a seven-game series is mitigated by the fact they haven’t had to play since Sunday, giving them three days off. The Celtics have been true “road warriors” this season, going 32-16 ATS away from home. They are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs in these playoffs. In the two regular season matchups, these teams each won on the other’s floor. I know that the Warriors have the flashier offense, more star power and the home court advantage. But I believe that the Celtics are the better team here and the public isn’t really clued into it. Boston is actually 7-3 straight up the previous 10 meetings with Golden State and I look for them to do the job defensively on Steph Curry in Game 1. 10* Boston |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:30 ET): The Heat cannot possibly play any worse than they have the last two games, right? They’ve averaged just 81 points in a pair of double digit losses, the last one coming at home and leaving them in a situation where they now need to beat the Celtics two straight. I would be shocked if the Heat came back to win this series as - coming in - I felt Boston was the deserved favorite. But this is too many to pass up with a Miami team that’s 19-8 ATS as an underdog and playing for its season. In a game that’s expected to be low-scoring, taking the points just seems like the way to go. Miami made just 31.9% of its field goal attempts in Game 5 and was 7 of 45 from three-point range! Needless to say, you should expect their shooting to improve. There’s room for improvement from their entire starting five, which collectively has scored a pathetic 60 points (total!) the L2 games. In particular, look to Max Strus, who has somehow gone 0 for 16 from the field, 11 of those misses coming from three-point range. Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was 0 for 6 in the last game and Victor Oladipo, who was 1 for 7. Jimmy Butler was 4 for 18 in Game 5 and has scored just 27 points the L3 games. Someone on this team HAS to step up! The Heat were winning at halftime in Game 5, 42-37. Then the wheels came off, similar to what happened for Boston in Game 1. Though no game in the series has been particularly close (only one decided by single digits), this is the largest spread we’ve seen. I don’t expect Miami to simply “roll over” as they are 7-1 ATS the L8 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. Also, there have been only two times that the Heat have lost three straight games this year. Once was before Thanksgiving, the other was a four-game slide in late March. Since the start of April, they’ve lost B2B games only once. That was the last round vs. Philadelphia and they responded by crushing the Sixers 120-85 in the next game. 10* Miami |
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05-25-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): This has been a curious Eastern Conference Finals with the first four games all being blowouts. Each game of the series has seen a lead of at least 20 points. In Game 4, it was Boston’s turn as they jumped out to an 18-1 lead and never looked back. Miami missed its first 14 field goal attempts and its one point through eight minutes was the fewest in any playoff game in the L25 years. The Celtics were up 29-11 at the end of the first quarter and stretched their lead to 27 in the second and 32 in the third. The game was essentially over by halftime. Boston is now 5-0 SU/ATS off a SU loss this postseason. It would be easy to say “now it’s the Heat’s turn” as the series goes back to Miami for Game 5. The “Zig Zag Theory” has been in full force in this series and the Heat have only lost once at home (Game 2) this postseason. But let’s not forget a few things. Boston, despite not having the home court advantage, was the favorite coming into this series. They also had the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. They’ve been the team up at the half in three of the four games. If not for the third quarter meltdown, the Celtics would be up three games to one. It is my view that the Celtics are the better team and the oddsmakers seem to agree by installing them as Game 5 favorites. Miami had six players listed as questionable going into Game 4. Most ended up playing, but the starting five combined for only 18 points, the fewest in a playoff game going back to 1970-71. Obviously that number will go up tonight, but don’t expect the Heat’s bench to score anywhere close to 64 points again. If anything, the point totals from the starting five and reserves may simply reverse. Also, don’t expect Boston to shoot only 23.5% from three again. That they won Game 4 by 20 points, despite being -18 from three-point range is pretty amazing. Right now, the Celtics’ net efficiency rating in the playoffs is several points higher than Miami’s. Look for them to justify being favored in this spot as they take a 3-2 series lead. 10* Boston |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:00 ET): While the Mavericks are down 3-0 in the series and have lost the three games by a combined 43 points, things have actually been more competitive than they seem. The Mavs led Game 2 at the half and were only down one at the half in Game 3. They turned in the defensive effort I expected in the last game, holding Golden State to “just” 46.1% shooting after letting them shoot 56.1% in the first two games. Problem was that the Mavs only shot 40% themselves in Game 3, including a woeful 13 of 45 from three-point range. Take Luka Doncic (40 points) out of the equation and the Mavs’ offensive numbers from Game 3 get real ugly. With the season on the line, at home, I expect better tonight. Three Mavericks, Doncic plus Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie, combined for 86 of the team’s 100 points on Sunday. I’m expecting a more balanced effort tonight as the Mavs look to keep their season going. I’m pretty confident that we’ll be getting another strong effort at the defensive end as they are #1 in the league at home in scoring defense, allowing only 101.1 PPG. The three-point shooting is where the Mavs should really improve tonight. They hit 35% from downtown for the year, but have been well below that mark in two of the first three games of this series. This is just the third time all season that Dallas has been on a three-game losing streak. They have won and covered in the previous two spots, both of which came before X-Mas. Furthermore, the team has gone 19-5 ATS this season following a game where it scored 100 points or less. All signs point to improvement at the offensive end from the Mavs and given their season-long defensive prowess, I do think they get the win they need tonight. Golden State has failed to win both potential close out games on the road this postseason (allowed 130 PPG), including a 39-point loss in Memphis. 10* Dallas |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:30 ET): The Celtics had the scoring edge in three of the four quarters Tuesday night. Problem is they got annihilated in the third, getting outscored 39-14 by the Heat. While Boston may not get out to the same hot start we saw in Game 1 (62 points in the first half), I do like them to bounce back and at least cover the number here in Game 2. The status of both Marcus Smart and Al Horford remain in question for tonight, but Smart has been upgraded to probable. Regardless, without those two players, Boston looked like the better team for 75% of Game 1. Take the points. It was Jimmy Butler (41 points) again bailing out the Heat in Game 1. He was 17 of 18 from the free throw line though, which I don’t think can be repeated here. The Heat could be missing both Max Straus and Gabe Vincent, in addition to Kyle Lowry (out) tonight. I know that this team is undefeated at home in the postseason (7-0 SU) with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. But Boston is 3-0 ATS this postseason when down in the series and has not lost B2B games since the end of March. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS following a double digit loss this season and outscoring opponents by 8.4 PPG when off an ATS loss. The Celtics had some expected three-point regression in Game 1, but what was surprising was the fact they allowed 118 points. This was the #1 scoring defense in the NBA during the regular season. In its previous seven games, Miami had topped 108 only twice. The probable return of Smart, the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year, should certainly help at that end of the floor, especially when it comes to containing Butler. Even if Smart can’t go, Butler has only averaged 21.5 PPG off his two previous 40+ point efforts this postseason. There’s no rest advantage this time for Miami. 10* Boston |
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05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:45 ET): The Celtics, despite NOT having the home court advantage for the series, enter as favorites to win the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami. That makes sense to me as the Celtics had the best scoring differential and net efficiency rating among teams in the East, during the regular season. They were my pick to win the East before the playoffs started and after eliminating Brooklyn and Milwaukee, the team has given me no reason to come off that opinion. If the Celtics are to confirm their status as series favorites, it stands to reason they’ll win one of these first two games in MIami. I’m taking the points in Game 1. Miami is the top seed and hasn’t lost at home in the playoffs. But I don’t think they’ve faced what Boston has faced in the first two rounds. The Celtics have had to contain the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat faced a subpar Hawks team in Round 1, then their Round 2 opponent (Philadelphia) was a bit of a mess as Joel Embiid was out the first two games and James Harden was never himself. I’m not sure the Heat can continue to rely so heavily on Jimmy Butler at the offensive end, especially against one of the premier defensive teams in the league. I know that Miami has a pretty nice scheduling edge heading into the series as they’ve been off for four days while Boston just won a Game 7 on Sunday. But it was a comfortable win for the Celtics 48 hours ago. The Celtics lost only once by more than three points in the second round and that was actually Game 1, when they were coming off a long layoff after sweeping the Nets in Round 1. The fact that Boston is the better team and series favorite is reflected in this number, but I just believe they’re set to “make good.” Even though the last series went seven games, no team posted a better net efficiency rating in Round 2 than did the C’s, who also have the best net overall efficiency rating in the playoffs. 8* Boston |
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:30 ET): Top seed Phoenix is coming off a blowout win (110-80) and can close the series out with a win tonight. Problem is the Suns are 0-7 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has yet to lose a game in this series (same with Miami-Philadelphia) and as previously mentioned by me, the big difference for Dallas when they are at home is their defense really improves (101.3 PPG allowed). They held the Suns to 94 and 101 points in the first two games here. I’m taking the points in Game 6 as the Mavs likely force a Game 7. As you’d expect from a team that scored only 80 points, the Mavs shot dreadfully on Tuesday night, making only 38% of their total field goal attempts, including 8 of 32 from three-point range. In Games 3 and 4 here at home, they shot around 44% overall (still not that great) but also made a total of 33 threes. I am expecting vast improvement from beyond the arc tonight. Outside of Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson, the rest of the Mavs scored only 31 points on 8 of 31 shooting in Game 5. As I say so often, role players typically perform much better at home. It should also be pointed out that in two of its three losses in this series, Dallas has largely been the better team in the first half. They led at halftime in Game 2 (lost by 20) and then were also up with three minutes to go in the first half in Game 5. The team is an outstanding 18-4 ATS this season after being held under 100 points the previous game (28-9 ATS L3 seasons). The season is on the line tonight, they are at home and without question will be better than they were Tuesday. 8* Dallas |
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05-10-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Both of Tuesday’s series have seen the underdog storm back to even the series at two games apiece. In both instances, the home team has also won all four games. In this one, most were writing Dallas off entering Game 3, but not me as I cashed the Mavs last Friday (10* Game of the Week) as they won 103-94. Then in Game 4, I was holding an Under ticket and had to sweat that out. Scoring plummeted in the second half (thankfully) and that Under bet was a winner by three points. I’m 3-0 in the series as I had the Over in Game 1. Now for the first time I’ll “repeat” a previous bet and take the Mavs (plus the points) in Game 5. Dallas has led at the half each of the last three games and really dominated the last two from wire to wire. Now I realize the series now moves back to Phoenix, a place where the Mavs have not won in three years. But I think the defense and three-point shooting we saw in the two home games can “travel.” Again, this is a team that took two of three games in the first round vs. Utah without Luka Doncic. Phoenix was overdue for a “correction” in the shooting department after making 50% or better in each of the first eight playoff games. Sure enough, Dallas held them to 44.7% and 46.4% in the L2 games. The Suns made only nine threes in Game 4, which was also overdue. Shockingly poor play from Chris Paul also contributed to the two Mavs’ wins. Paul had seven turnovers in Game 3 then committed four first half fouls in Game 4. He played less than four minutes in the second half. Obviously, that’s unlikely to happen again here. But this just seems like too many points to lay in what should be a closely contested matchup. Looking at the betting percentages, the Suns have the look of a very “public” side in Game 5 and a team you’d want to fade. Dallas has seized the “momentum” and is 42-18-1 ATS its last 61 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* Dallas |
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05-10-22 | 76ers +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, we’ve got a series on our hands as the Sixers won both games at home to even the series up at two games apiece. Now Miami is still favored, in this game and the series, as it still possesses the homecourt edge. The Heat endured two brutal shooting games in Philadelphia, making only 14 of 65 attempts from behind the three-point line. Compare that to the 76ers, who were 16 of 33 (48.5%) in both games. While you’ve got to expect better three-point shooting from Miami (the #1 three-point shooting team in the reg season) at home, it’s pretty clear to me that the series has changed dramatically since Joel Embiid returned. Take the points in Game 5. You also can’t understate the performance Philadelphia got from James Harden in Game 4. Harden scored 31, after averaging only 17.6 PPG in Gms 1-3, and hit the critical three in the 4Q. Embiid had 24 points and 11 rebounds, his second “double-double” in as many games since returning from injury. The other three starters also all scored in double figures. Both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have proven that they can be consistent contributors offensively. If you’re thinking leaving Philadelphia will substantially hurt the Sixers, think again. Yes, they lost Games 1 & 2 here. But they actually have a better SU record on the road (29-17) than at home (28-18) this season. While Philly likely has the two best players in its ranks and is getting a variety of contributions offensively, Miami isn’t getting much beyond Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has seen his scoring go up in every game this series and had 40 pts in Game 4. But the rest of the team went just 25 of 62 (40%) from the field. In Game 3, Butler had 33 pts and the rest of the team scored just 46. Kyle Lowry has been a non-factor since coming back from injury while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have both been inconsistent. While the home team has won all four games in this series, the Heat have only outscored the Sixers by two points. I’m expecting a close one on Tuesday and will be taking the points with the hotter team. 8* Philadelphia |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:30 ET): The Warriors were able to wrest home court advantage away from the Grizzlies, taking Game 1 by a score of 117-116. Having bet the Over, that result sat well with me. I sat out Game 2 (no play), which was won by Memphis 106-101 and not without controversy. Dillon Brooks injuring Gary Payton II has resulted in BOTH players being out for Game 3 (Brooks is suspended). We saw both home teams come out fired up last night in NBA playoff action and though not down 0-2 in the series like the Sixers & Mavs, I expect the Warriors to come out just as fired up here. Another difference between the Dubs and last night’s home sides is that we are having to lay points. Not a concern of mine as they are, in my estimation, clearly the better team here. Memphis was fortunate to advance out of the first round, let alone take the series in six games, They overcame double-digit deficits in the fourth quarter in three of those wins. Losing Brooks is going to be significant as he had three 23+ point games vs. the Timberwolves. I also don’t see Ja Morant matching his Game 2 production (47 points) tonight as he made more threes on Tuesday (five) than he did in the entire first round series (four). Speaking of three-point shooting, the Warriors were historically bad in Game 2, making only 18.4 percent. It was the worst three-point shooting performance in the playoffs in franchise history. Klay Thompson was 2 for 12 while Steph Curry was 3 for 11. To say they’ll improve dramatically tonight seems like an obvious statement. Memphis, despite Morant’s 47 points, didn’t shoot that well either in the last game. But Golden State clearly has more room for improvement here and they are 34-10 SU at home (3-0 in Rd 1), outscoring visiting teams by more than 10 PPG on the year. They’ve held the rebounding edge in both games. 8* Golden State |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:30 ET): The Mavericks seem to have no answers for the Suns as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by 7 and 20 points. The first game wasn’t really that close as Dallas was down double digits most of the way and trailed by 16 with just five minutes remaining. It’s not just these two games where the Mavs have struggled against the Suns either. Going back to the beginning of 2020, they’ve lost 11 straight head to head matchups and only covered the spread twice. But now the series moves back to Dallas where the Mavs are 31-13 SU this year and giving up only 101.5 PPG. Game 2 was a little different than Game 1 in the sense that this time the Mavs were only down six entering the fourth quarter. But then Chris Paul took over and it turned into another blowout situation. Dallas actually led at halftime, 60-58, but simply could not match the hot shooting of the Suns, who finished the game at a blistering 64.5% from the floor. Even if the series wasn’t moving to Dallas for Game 3, you know there is no way Phoenix can match that kind of overall shooting percentage. They were also 52% (13 of 25) from three-point range. Paul and Devin Booker were a combined 22 of 35 from the floor. No player on the Suns shot below 50% for the game! C’mon man! From previous analysis that I’ve done, you might recall that teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series do quite well when returning home for Game 3. Not necessarily in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but historically teams in this spot are hitting well over 60% ATS. The Mavs will essentially be playing for their season here as no team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit. Considering Dallas has shot 41 percent from three-point range so far in this series, I think they can get the job done in Game 3. They beat Utah twice without Luka Doncic in Round 1 and the role players will play better at home. 10* Dallas |
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05-04-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, but the Sixers led Game 1 at the half and seemed to be en route to at least a cover. That was until things went awry midway through the third quarter and Miami took control defensively, holding the Sixers to just 31 points over the final 20 minutes. James Harden, who will obviously need to step it up offensively with Embiid out, scored just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting in Game 1. You’ve got to figure he’ll do better tonight. Plus, he has help with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, the latter of whom went for 27 points on Tuesday night. I’m taking the points here. Philly shot a dreadful 17.6% from three-point range in Game 1, going just 6 of 34. That was especially bad, considering Miami (who is one of the league’s better 3-pt shooting teams) made only 9 of 36 from behind the arc. While both teams figure to improve from distance tonight, I think it’s clear that the 76ers have more room to improve and it’s difficult for me to envision them being any worse than they were offensively in the first game. After being held 100 points the previous game, the Sixers have gone an impressive 16-4 straight up and 13-7 against the spread this season. They are also on a 35-17-1 ATS run following a double digit loss. Miami’s only postseason loss thus far came by a single point, on the road, but it is notable they’ve failed to score more than 110 points in any of the last four games. As I said in the Game 1 analysis, Philadelphia was able to beat the Heat in the final regular season matchup, despite not having Embiid AND Harden. Going back to Philly’s ability to bounce back from a bad loss, the last time they were off a double digit loss where they were held below 100 points was Game 6 against the Raptors. They ended up closing out the series with a 132-97 road win. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-02-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): So the big story here is that the 76ers will be without Joel Embiid, though reports have surfaced he could be back as early as Game 3. But that obviously doesn’t help Philly tonight. What does help is having James Harden. I think that the market has slightly overreacted to the news of Embiid’s absence as the Sixers were bet out as far as +8.5 for Game 1 in Miami. Remember that we’ve seen Dallas win without Luka Doncic, Phoenix win without Devin Booker and more recently (yday) Milwaukee go to Boston and win without Khris Middleton. Not saying the Sixers pull the outright upset here, but the spread seems too large. It’s not as if Miami is 100 percent healthy right now either. Kyle Lowry is still out while Jimmy Butler missed the close out game vs. Atlanta and Tyler Herro has been battling a cold. Butler and Herro will reportedly play tonight. But with so many players less than 100%, can the Heat score enough to cover this spread? I don’t think so. Harden should put up monster numbers for Philadelphia and it’s worth noting he averaged 10.5 assists per game in the first round vs. Toronto. Tyrese Maxey can also help fill the scoring void left by Embiid’s absence. Maxey scored 38 in Game 1 vs. Toronto, and is third in the league in three-point efficiency. Only six players took part in all four 76ers-Heat regular season matchups. I think it is worth noting though that without Embiid and Harden, the Sixers defeated the Heat 113-106 (as eight-point underdogs) back on March 21st. Now that was at home. But they shot 50% overall as a team and were 40% from three-point range. Also, the Sixers’ defense was outstanding against the Heat in the regular season as Gabe Vincent was the only Miami player to average more than 20 PPG against them. The four games saw the Heat only outscore the Sixers by four total points. Expect Game 1 to be close. 8* Philadelphia |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz are facing elimination at home in Game 6, something they would not have expected after previously “stealing” the home court advantage away with a Game 1 win in Dallas. The Mavericks played the first three games of this series without superstar Luka Doncic, but won two of the three. After losing Game 4 (here in Salt Lake City) by a single points, the Mavs bounced back and romped to a 102-77 victory as three-point favorites. I know it was a terrible call by me taking Utah in that game, but I still believe they are the better team and we are getting a great price on them at home. After some concern he’d miss Game 6, Jazz PG Deron Williams is likely to play tonight. But I think that the bigger boost comes from returning home where the team is 30-13 SU on the year and outscoring visiting teams by 9.2 PPG. Dallas is not as staunch defensively on the road as it is at home and the Jazz are going to shoot MUCH better from three-point land tonight than they did in Game 5. How could they not? Their 3 of 30 performance on Tuesday was the worst percentage in NBA Playoff history! In the regular season, Utah was tied for the most efficient offense in the NBA and they average 116.4 PPG at home. It has been rather shocking to see them get held to 104 points or less in four of the five games in this series. They did shoot 56.5% from the floor here in Game 3 though, so they’ve shown to be capable. Game 5 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz were underdogs. Considering where the lines were set in the first four games, needing only a SU win tonight seems like a great value. I look for Utah to force a Game 7. 10* Utah |
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04-26-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:30 ET): The Raptors, who were facing elimination, treated us well last night. So give me the Hawks plus the points, in the same situation on Tuesday. Now it’s not been a great series for Trae Young thus far as he’s averaging just 16.5 PPG and hitting only 20.8% from three-point range. But he is responsible for the Hawks’ only win here vs. Miami (hit the game-winning basket in Game 3) and you’ve got to believe he’s got one good game in him. With the team’s season on the line tonight, now is the perfect time for Young to “show up” and I think he will. As a team, the Hawks have not been held under 100 pts in B2B games since early January. They finished the regular season tied with Utah for #1 in offensive efficiency. So I think it’s quite reasonable to expect them to rebound from the dismal 86-point effort in Game 4. Recall I had the Heat in that game. What’s changed here is that Atlanta’s season is now on the line and we’re getting a healthy amount of points. I know they failed to cover the spread in the first two games here in Miami, but it seems as if the public sentiment is totally against them coming into tonight and it’s a great chance to fire on an undervalued underdog. Remember that Miami is without PG Kyle Lowry. It didn’t seem to matter in Game 4, but not having Lowry is significant. Clint Capella returned for Atlanta in the last game and while he had just two points and seven rebounds, I expect him to play better tonight. It goes without saying that you should expect more points here from Young, who had only nine points in Game 4 and didn’t make a single free throw or two-point basket. Jimmy Butler had 36 for the Heat, but he typically follows up a big game with a subpar one. That’s a bigger deal now that Lowry is out. I can’t guarantee that the Hawks keep their season alive, but they’ll at least cover tonight. 10* Atlanta |
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04-25-22 | Jazz +3 v. Mavs | Top | 77-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:30 ET): This will be the first time in the series that the Jazz are underdogs, so I’ll pounce on the opportunity as a win tonight would mean they can close the Mavs out in Salt Lake City on Thursday. Utah has failed to cover each of the last three games in this series, and 12 of 15 going back to the end of the regular season. But again, this is a rare opportunity where you’re getting them plus the points. Not since a game at Boston on 3/23 have the Jazz been more than a one-point underdog against anybody. This will be just the 12th time all season that they check in as dogs! Dallas got Luka Doncic back for Game 4, but it just wasn’t enough as they lost 100-99 on a Rudy Gobert dunk in the closing seconds. The Mavericks shot better than the Jazz on Saturday, from all ranges, so that’s a pretty brutal loss with their star returning. Utah has not shot well from three-point range in this series, going 32% or worse in three of the four games. Perhaps you’ve got to credit the Dallas’ defense, but my gut says the Jazz will fire efficiently from long-range tonight. They were one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this year and also finished tied (w/ Atlanta) for the league-lead in offensive efficiency. Doncic had 30 points in his return, but it really wasn’t that great of a game and he seemed to have a NEGATIVE effect on the Mavs’ offensive flow. Only one of Doncic’s teammates (Jalen Brunson) scored more than 11 points and the entire bench contributed just 13 points. I’m a little shocked that Dallas is +51 in three-point attempts for the series, considering Utah was a top-two team in that category during the regular season. The Mavs are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as a playoff favorite. Considering that Utah was favored here in the first two games (granted, no Doncic) and how many they were favored by in the two games at home, this seems to be an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. 8* Utah |
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04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:00 ET): The Raptors were able to fend off elimination on Saturday, taking Game 4 (at home) by a score of 110-102 as 2.5-point underdogs. As you know, no team in NBA history has ever come back to win a series after losing the first three games. So history is not on Toronto’s side as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. But I do like the points tonight as Scottie Barnes (NBA’s Rookie of the Year) has returned for the Raptors and you know that the team will be giving 100% with their season on the line. Now unfortunately, Barnes’ return for Game 4 coincided with the loss of PG Fred Van Vleet to a hip injury. However, I’m not sweating Van Vleet’s questionable status for this game. He’d become a bit of a defensive liability for the Raptors. That said, they did hold the 76ers to an average of 103 points in the two games in Toronto. I also expect the Raptors to shoot much better from three-point range than they did on Saturday. Winning - in spite of going 8 of 34 from behind the arc - was pretty impressive, if you think about it. Pascal Siakam played a heck of a game, scoring 15 of his team-high 34 points in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the biggest injury to make note of heading into Game 5 is on the Philly side as Joel Embiid has a torn ligament in his right thumb and it clearly affected him in the Game 4 loss when he went 7 of 16 from the field. It also didn’t help that James Harden was 5 of 17, including 2 of 8 on three-point attempts. Or that Tyrese Maxey, who had that 38-point effort in Game 1, has seen his own production drop in every game. He scored just 11 points in Game 4. While it’s certainly possible that Harden and/or Maxey play better tonight at home, I think that gets canceled out by the fact the Sixers won’t be +15 again from three-point land. In what oddsmakers project to be a fairly low-scoring tussle, taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Toronto |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:30 ET): The top-seeded Suns may look like a bargain at this number, but remember they are without leading scorer Devin Booker and won Game 3 by only three points. It was a close game most of the way and the Pelicans caught a tough break in the second quarter when forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected. That led to the Suns dominating points in the paint. The loss of Booker really can’t be understated and I expect New Orleans to spring an upset here, just like they did in Game 2 at Phoenix. New Orleans’ overall record this season is a little misleading as they started 3-16 SU. The acquisition of CJ McCollum proved to be a difference maker as he and Brandon Ingram form an excellent scoring tandem that’s averaged 55.7 PPG in this series. I expect that duo to get more help tonight from Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr, who combined to make only two shots in Game 3. The Pelicans have lost B2B home games just once since the All-Star Break. They are 6-1 ATS L7 games off an ATS loss. The loss of Booker was clearly felt as the Suns were a horrid 4 of 26 from three-point range in Game 3. They’ll surely improve upon that percentage tonight, but I wouldn’t look for them to go 40 of 61 (66%!) from two-point range again. The Suns have struggled to defend the three-point line in this series as the Pelicans are shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Winning twice on the road is tough in the playoffs, especially when you are without your best player. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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04-24-22 | Heat -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:00 ET): The Heat are one Trae Young floater away from being up 3-0 in this first round series and thus they could have been in position to close the Hawks out here on Sunday. But Young made that floater, giving Atlanta a much needed 111-110 win on Friday as they rallied back from a 14-point 4Q deficit. Still, I don’t think there’s any dispute who the better team is and I expect that team (the Heat!) to bounce back with a win in Game 4. Kyle Lowry left Game 3 with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Saturday. But even if he can’t go, I fully anticipate the Heat putting plenty of points on the board tonight. They’ve scored 110 or more in eight straight games and are up against a team with the worst regular season defensive efficiency rating among playoff qualifiers. After shooting 43.2% from three-point range in the first two games, the Heat were down to 31.1% (14 of 45) in Game 3. While some of that has to do with the change in venue, I’d expect improved shooting from behind the arc tonight. Despite the late heroics in the last game, Young is not having a great series. He scored only eight points in Game 1, then had 10 turnovers (career-high) in Game 2. Through three quarters in Game 3, Young had just 14 pts on 3 of 9 shooting. Over his L9 games vs. Miami, Young has averaged only 21.3 points in large part to the Heat’s ability to defend on-ball picks. I realize that Atlanta is a much better team at home (21-3 SU here since 1/17) but they are just 2-9 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. Lay the short number. 10* Miami |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* 1st Half Brooklyn (7:30 ET): First off, note that this is a first half play only where I’m backing the Nets. The Nets are the fourth team this postseason to return home down 0-2 in the series. Of the previous three, only Atlanta (last night) was able to emerge victorious. But two of the three (Atlanta & Toronto) were leading their games at halftime. What sets Brooklyn apart from the previous three teams in this spot is that they are favored to win. The first two games of this series have been close with Game 1 decided on a buzzer-beater and Game 2 seeing the Nets up 10 at the half. This team is too good to fall down 0-3 to the Celtics. I expect them to be leading comfortably at the halftime break. After losing Game 1 at the buzzer, the Nets led by as many as 17 points in Game 2. That was late in the first half. They were still up seven in the fourth quarter before wilting down the stretch and getting outscored 16-2 over a seven-minute stretch. Boston did not take its first lead until there were less than eight minutes left in the game. I can’t see Kevin Durant having a third straight sub-standard game. He’s averaging 25 PPG, but on 13 of 41 from the field and he’s made only two three-pointers. The Celtics have done an excellent job defending Durant, but eventually a player that great is going to have a great game. It happens here. Boston also probably won’t shoot 52% from the field again like it did in Game 2. Even with Durant’s struggles, Brooklyn is averaging 114.5 points in the series and shooting north of 50 percent. Kyrie Irving, after an incredible Game 1 performance with 39 points, cooled off dramatically in Game 2, scoring only 10 and didn’t have a made three. He, like Durant, will have a better effort tonight and I expect the same from the Nets’ role players as well as this game is at home. It would be shocking to me if the home team didn’t get off to another fast start in this game. 8* 1st Half Brooklyn |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): I expect the Nuggets to come out hot. As you probably know, there has never been a team in NBA history to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. So there’s a natural sense of “urgency” for teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series and when you throw in the fact they are back at home, it’s rather reasonable to expect a strong performance. Interestingly enough, despite losing each of the first two games by double digits, Denver has gotten off to good starts. They’ve lead after the 1Q in both games. It was late in the first half - when GS unveiled its so-called “death lineup” - when Game 1 turned in the Warriors’ favor. It wasn’t until after the halftime break when things unraveled for the Nuggets in Game 2 as they allowed 44 points in the third quarter. Note Denver only shot 31.4% from behind the arc in Game 1 and 42.5% overall in Game 2. Back at home, I certainly expect better shooting from them as they average 114.8 PPG here (59.3 in the 1H) on 48.2% shooting. Golden State, who shot very well in the first two games, should see an offensive decrease here in Game 3. Their number of points per game scored on the road this year is down from what they average at home while the amount of PPG allowed rises. In fact, Golden State has a negative point differential on the road in the first half this season. They are 22-19 SU on the road this season, but that’s a far cry from their 33-10 SU home record. Steph Curry has come off the bench in the first two games; that could change for Game 3, but regardless I think it’s the Nuggets that come out stronger. Going back to the regular season, Golden State has now beaten Denver three straight times, but before that the Nuggets had won the season’s first three meetings, including 131-124 here in the Mile High City back in March. Remember they were up 43-31 in the 2Q in Game 2. 8* Denver |
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04-21-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (9:05 ET): Without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks were able to get a split at home with the Jazz. Now the series moves to Salt Lake City and Doncic is listed as questionable for Game 3 tonight. Doncic averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the regular season vs. Utah. I probably don’t need to tell you that his return would be gigantic for the Mavs. But, even if he can’t go, I still like the underdog (plus the points) in this one as the Jazz have been big money-burners over the last month or so, going 3-9-1 ATS L13 games. This is too many points that they are laying. In Game 2, the Mavs got a career-high 41 points from Jalen Brunson, made 22 three-pointers (a franchise record for a playoff game) and turned the ball over three times. When you consider that, it’s surprising they only won by six points, but beating the Jazz without Doncic is what counts. While I don’t think we can count on Dallas hitting 22 threes again, Utah’s poor perimeter defense tells me that the Mavs will still make a lot of threes in this game and, defensively, the Jazz have really struggled to contain Dallas’ small-ball lineup. Again, this is a lot of points to lay in a playoff game, especially if Doncic is coming back. The fact Doncic was upgraded to questionable seems like a sign he will play, but regardless, Dallas proved they can stick with Utah even without their best player. Remember that Game 1 was close most of the way with the Jazz only pulling away late. Utah has averaged just 101.5 PPG in the series so far and after a SU loss they are only 10-21-2 ATS this season. Donovan Mitchell needed 30 shots to get to 34 points in Game 2 while Rudy Gobert (save for rebounding) was poor at both ends. Mike Conley didn’t even score a single point as he was in foul trouble. Not saying the Mavs pull the upset, but they’ll at least keep it close. 10* Dallas |
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Though it’s officially a best of seven series, Game 3 is pretty much “do or die” for the Raptors as no one has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history. It’ll be a boost being back at home and remember because of COVID-19 protocol up in Canada, Philadelphia is going to be without one of its key reserves (Matisse Thybulle) who is unvaccinated. While that may not sound like a big deal, based on the fact Thybulle scored just eight total points in the first two games, I think the Raptors come out hot in Game 3 and make this an interesting series. Take the points. Since 2005, teams down 0-2 in a series and returning home for Game 3 have covered roughly two-thirds of the time. So historically this is a profitable spot to back the Raptors, who are better than what they’ve shown in the first two games vs. the 76ers. In both games at Philly, things somewhat unraveled in the second quarter, leaving the Raptors to face large halftime deficits. Don’t see that happening at home where the team sees its scoring rise and number of points per game allowed go down (compared to the road). Toronto won seven of its final eight regular season home games, the lone loss coming by five to top seed Miami. The Sixers had a surprisingly good road record in the regular season (27-14 SU), but only outscored opponents by about two points per game. As an away favorite, they are 11-12-1 ATS. In the first two games, the Sixers lived at the free throw line, getting 64 attempts and making 55. On the road, the refs are unlikely to be quite so generous. Over the course of the year, the team averaged 20 made FTs per game. So I expect a decrease in production from the charity stripe in Game 3. Perhaps most pertinent of all is the fact the Raptors are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season off three consecutive losses (they lost reg season finale). 9* Toronto |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:35 ET): The Warriors won their last five regular season games, all without Steph Curry, and now the former league MVP is expected back for Game 1 of this best of seven series vs. Denver. Relative to some of the other first round series, the Warriors aren’t that large of a favorite to advance here, but I see them doing so without much issue. At full strength, the Dubs are clearly a Top 5 team in the NBA and I see them rolling in Game 1 Saturday night over a Denver team that I just don’t believe in, even though they have reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic among their ranks. Lay the points. Curry (foot) is officially listed as probable. Note that I’m rolling with Golden State regardless. If Curry doesn’t play, then the opportunity to get a better number will be there. But barring something unforeseen, it appears he WILL play. “We expect him to play,” said Warriors’ HC Steve Kerr. The team won its last five games by an average of 13.2 PPG and its outscoring foes by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. So home court advantage for this series certainly seems significant, even though the Nuggets had a better win percentage on the road. Also key is that the Warriors finished the regular season #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That will serve them well in the playoffs. While the Warriors’ core of Curry-Thompson-Green SHOULD be together on the floor for Game 1, Denver will continue to be without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray. While Jokic carried the team with those two out, doing so in a series against Golden State seems a lot more problematic. Yes, the Nuggets did win three of the four regular season matchups. But Golden State won the last one, led by Curry’s 34 points. Denver is just nowhere as good defensively (18th in efficiency) and they are 1-4 ATS L5 games as a playoff underdog. 10* Golden State |
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04-13-22 | Spurs +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (9:30 ET): The winner of this game will move on to face the LOSER of Clippers-T’wolves (played on Tuesday) to determine who is the #8 seed (and face Phoenix in the first round) for the Western Conference playoffs. Despite finishing with their second worst win percentage EVER under HC Gregg Popovich, the Spurs should have finished with a far better record. Based on their point differential, they should have a winning record, not be 14 games below .500. Only Boston and Utah underperformed their Pythagorean win total more. I’m on the Spurs Weds to at least cover. Honestly, I expect them to win here. The Spurs won and covered three of the four regular season matchups with the Pelicans. Significant is that they were 2-1 SU/ATS in the three matchups after NO acquired CJ McCollum. The Pelicans were definitely a better team after the All-Star Break, but they have the worst expected win percentage of any team still playing. They are also a bottom five team in three-point shooting. Both Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas remain on the injury report (as questionable) for Weds. While I expect one or both to play, those would be massive losses for a game of this magnitude. The Spurs should enter this game relatively healthy. Leading scorer Dejounte Murray is the first player in NBA HISTORY to average 20-9-8 (points-rebounds-assists) over the course of an entire season. The Spurs are 19-12 ATS as road underdogs, the third best record in that situation in the league. They also have the best money line record as road dogs, having posted 12 outright wins. The Spurs’ losing record on the road (straight up) is highly misleading as they scored more than they allowed in those games. They are the better team in this matchup, so I’m definitely taking the points. 10* San Antonio |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves -2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:30 ET): The Timberwolves did not finish the regular season particularly strong (3-4 SU/1-6 ATS L7) but that’s not at all indicative of how they played most of the way. This team’s statistical profile is much more “on par” with the likes of Dallas and Denver than it is with the rest of the “play-in” teams. Case in point, the T’wolves had a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the sixth placed Nuggets. Getting this game at home is huge for a young team and I expect them to advance by defeating the Clippers Tuesday. Conversely, the Clippers did finish the regular season quite well, winning their final five games by an average of more than 25 PPG. While that’s obviously quite impressive, consider four of the wins were at home, the last three all coming against non-contending (Sacramento, OKC) or disinterested (Phoenix) teams. The return of Paul George obviously makes this a stronger team, but it’s hard to look past the fact that even with the strong finish, LA was downright mediocre this year. They are 2-8 ATS in their L10 games against teams that are .500 or better. Of the eight teams (East & West) involved in the play-in tournament, I’ve got Minnesota rated as the best. They were 1-3 SU/ATS head to head vs. LA in the regular season, but the three losses were all before Thanksgiving and that’s a long time ago. They won in LA 122-104 on January 3rd. Since the New Year, the T’wolves are 30-16 SU and they have the fifth best SU record in the league since the All-Star Break. It would be a shame if this team didn’t make the playoffs proper. They are 25-18-1 ATS when favored, so whether or not D’Angelo Russell plays, I’m laying the short number. 10* Minnesota |
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04-10-22 | Thunder +10 v. Clippers | Top | 88-138 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:40 ET): The Clippers seem to be on a bit of a roll as they head towards the play-in tournament. They’ve won four straight, the latest coming yesterday when they defeated Sacramento 117-98 as a 12-point favorite. I cashed the Under in that game, a play which was never really in doubt. What is in doubt for today, however, is the Clips’ motivation. This is the second game of a back to back, plus they know they are heading to Minnesota Tuesday for their shot to make the playoffs. I do not think the home team will be in the mindset to win their regular season finale by double digits. Meanwhile, I know that the Thunder have NOTHING to play for here, but I also think that makes them a somewhat “dangerous” dog in this spot. As was expected, it was another long season in OKC as the Thunder will finish second to last in the Western Conference, ahead of only Houston. They’ve been blown out in back to back games, but look for there to be a sense of pride here in avoiding that fate a third straight time. There are a good number of Thunder players unavailable, but it’s not like the Clippers are going all out Sunday. In three of the last four games, the Clippers have made 20+ three pointers. They were 21 of 43 from behind the arc yesterday. I just can’t see the shots continuing to fall at that high of a percentage, even in a game where defensive intensity may not be at its highest. I am anticipating a disinterested favorite in this one, and laying such a big number makes them a prime fade opportunity. Especially with this being the second night of a back to back. The Clips are just 5-8 SU this season in the 2nd night of a B2B. They may want to win (to finish the reg season above .500), but not by double digits. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:10 ET): This is a critical game for the Nuggets, who need one win in their last two games to avoid falling into the play-in round. On Tuesday, they blew their first chance at clinching with a horrendous effort here at home, losing 116-97 to short-handed San Antonio, a game where the Nuggets closed as nine-point favorites! In addition to trying to avoid the play-in round, Denver can still move up to fifth in the West. That would be advantageous as it’s likely Golden State will finish third and the Nuggets would like to avoid them seeing as Steph Curry is expected back for the start of the playoffs. Not only did Denver shoot itself in the foot Tuesday night, their task of moving up the standings was made more difficult when both Dallas and Utah (the two teams in front of them) both won. The Nuggets can no longer earn home court advantage in the first round, but like I said earlier they can pass Utah and move into fifth. The current gap between the Jazz and Nuggets is one game. I see Denver being tremendously motivated to win on Thursday; not just for playoff seeding purposes, but they are also 0-3 this season vs. Memphis, so there’s some revenge in the Rocky Mountain air tonight. The Grizzlies team that takes the floor this evening won’t really resemble the one that’s previously beaten the Nuggets three teams. Already locked into the 2-seed in the West, the Grizzlies are letting several injured players rest, most notably Ja Morant. The Grizz have a shockingly good SU record w/o Morant so far, but Brooks, Tillie and Terry are also all out and the team could not overcome all the absences Tuesday (when we faded them) in an OT loss at Utah. I don’t see Memphis’ intensity matching Denver’s tonight. Despite being 0-3 SU vs. the Grizz in 2021-22, the Nuggets led at the half in all three games. 10* Denver |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:10 ET): This is a huge game for the Jazz, who have fallen to sixth in the Western Conference despite having the league’s fourth best point differential. They have lost six of their last seven games, also going 1-6 ATS (0-7 ATS for some, depending on the result of the game against the Lakers). An inability to hold big leads has cost Utah dearly this season as Sunday marked the 15th time they had a double digit lead and lost. That was to a Steph Curry-less Warriors team and they were up by as many as 21 before losing 111-107. I am expecting a big bounce back performance from the Jazz, at home, here tonight. The last time Utah was off a stunning loss like what happened Sunday, I took them the next time out and they covered for me. That was against the Lakers as I had the Jazz -12 and they won 122-109. Here, the line is a lot shorter. While that’s for good reason (Memphis is very good), the opponent has nothing to play for on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are already locked into the second seed for the playoffs and will also be playing short-handed. Not only is Ja Morant out, but five other players are listed as questionable on the injury report, including Tillie, Bane, Jackson, Adams and Jones. Having to worry about 7th place Minnesota (1.5 games back) will have the Jazz supremely motivated for this one. It would be almost incomprehensible for the Jazz to fall into the play-in tournament. I still have them rated as a top five team in the league. I think their goal would be to avoid the Warriors (who are currently third) in the first round, so finishing fifth would have its benefits. I know Memphis has won seven straight and 10 of 11, but Utah will be the more motivated team on Tuesday, especially after blowing that big lead Sunday, so I am laying the points. The Jazz outscore teams by nearly 10 PPG at home this season. 8* Utah |
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04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Here we’ve got two Eastern Conference playoff teams in the second game of a back to back. Both won yesterday afternoon. Philadelphia blew out Charlotte 144-114. Cleveland was a 119-101 winner in New York. At this point, the 76ers are just trying to ensure they finish in the top four and have home court advantage for the first round. They are 2.5 games behind top seed Miami. The Cavaliers’ current standing is more perilous as they are facing the prospect of the play-in round. They’ve fallen to 7th place and are two games back of sixth place Chicago. I think the Cavs, at home, will want this one more. There’s obviously a huge benefit to finishing in the top six. Philly is going to be in the top four and that’s all that they care about. James Harden and Joel Embiid may both sit tonight. The Cavs will definitely be without Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but that’s not as significant as Harden and Embiid. The real key for Cleveland is getting back to the kind of defense we saw from them in the first half of the season. At home, they are giving up just 103.2 PPG, third fewest in the league. I think we’ll see a strong effort at the defensive end here. The Cavs are 0-3 SU vs. the Sixers this year, including a pair of losses in March. But for this triple revenge spot, they are getting points at home and I like that. Philadelphia had lost three in a row before yesterday’s win. In the last two meetings, Cleveland led by eight at the half the first time and then only lost by four the second time. Fingers crossed that Harden and/or Embiid sits, but either way I like Cleveland getting points in this matchup, which is quite critical for them. They are top six in the East in net efficiency and point differential. 10* Cleveland |
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04-02-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Though I don’t think they deserve to, it looks as if Chicago is likely to finish in the Eastern Conference’s top six and thus avoid the play-in round. Of the top six, the Bulls easily have the worst YTD point differential and net efficiency. In fact, they are behind 7th place Cleveland as well as Brooklyn and Atlanta in both regards. Though the Bulls did manage to come from behind and beat the Clippers in OT on Thursday, their ATS record since the All-Star remains a poor 5-12 ATS. It’s not just the underlying metrics that make me skeptical of this Bulls team. They have also been PUTRID against the league’s best teams. They are 1-19 SU in their L20 games against teams with the top nine records in the league. That includes 0-3 vs. the Heat, who they host here. The last four times that Chicago has faced a team with a win percentage of .600 or better, they have lost by at least 15 points. Don’t look for tonight to go any different as the last two meetings with the Heat have been decided by a total of 29 points. After going cold for a bit, Miami posted B2B wins to end March and thus continues to lead the East with a 49-28 SU record. They are now one game up on the Bucks, who got crushed last night. But two other teams (Celtics, Sixers) are within 2.5 games as well. So the Heat can’t afford to take any nights off here. They are off a huge win in Boston on Thursday as four of the five starters scored 14 or more points. The Heat also held the Celtics to 15 points in the fourth quarter. With that win, they are now 8-1-1 ATS L10 road games. Lay the points. 10* Miami |
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04-01-22 | Wolves +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 136-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:10 ET): I’ve got the T’wolves rated as the better team here, despite recent form. Since the All-Star Break, they had posted the NBA’s second best net efficiency rating. That was until dropping four of their last five games, which seemingly leaves them resigned to the 7-seed and play-in round in the Western Conference. Right now, Minnesota faces a three-game deficit with five to play. The team they are chasing (Denver) is the opponent tonight and a win here would not only close the gap, but ensures Minny holds the tiebreaker. They should be favored in the last four games, so look for a top-notch effort on Friday. The Nuggets have won their last three games, so not only are they thinking about holding onto the 6-seed, they’ve got the potential for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs on their mind. They are only two games back of third place, a tighter gap than what exists between them and the T’wolves, in what could be a wild finish. Note however that Denver’s three-game win streak has come at the expense of two bad teams (OKC, Indiana) and Charlotte. All three wins were by seven points or less, although they did have a huge early lead on Indiana Wednesday. But they shot 62.5% in that game, a number they won’t come close to matching here. Minnesota also had a big 1H lead on Weds, but could not hold it and ended up losing in a blowout to Toronto. That game saw a massive 40-point swing. Karl-Anthony Towns scored only 16 points on just 13 field goal attempts, so I think it’s more than reasonable to expect a bounce back performance from the T’wolves’ leading scorer tonight. Something worth noting is that the team averages more PPG on the road (117.5) than they do at home (112.9). They are actually the league’s highest scoring road team! Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
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03-31-22 | Lakers v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:00 ET): The Jazz have somehow fallen down into sixth place in the Western Conference, despite possessing the fourth best YTD point differential in the entire NBA. They are, not coincidentally, in the top four of my own personal power rankings (3rd). However, a win would be nice after a disastrous road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU/ATS overall and lose the last five games. Without question, the most demoralizing defeat of the bunch occurred Tuesday when they blew a 25-point lead and lost 121-115 to the Clippers. I believe the Jazz will be “out for blood” in their return home Thursday against the Lakers. The Lakers are in trouble. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out and the team holds a tenuous half game lead over San Antonio for the final spot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Lakers are getting in. They have a worse statistical profile than the Spurs and have just FOUR wins since the All-Star Break. Five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field and they just gave up 128 points to Dallas on Tuesday. Whereas I think Utah is much better than its won-loss record, the Lakers are worse than their WL record, a damning statement considering they are already 13 games below .500. If you can believe this, the Lakers are going for their second season sweep of the Jazz in the last 37 years. But the previous two wins were both at home. The Lakers’ road record is 11-26 SU and they are without their two superstars right now. I know this is a big number to lay with a team on a five-game losing streak, but Utah should be supremely motivated to handle its business here and is #2 in points per game at home in the league (116.3). Again, they were up 25 on the Clippers the other night. The Lakers just lost by 18. This should be a massive beatdown. 8* Utah |
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03-31-22 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): It promises to be a VERY interesting finish at the top of the Eastern Conference. Four teams are separated by two games and the defending NBA Champs are right in the mix, one game out of the top spot. I had Milwaukee Tuesday night in Philadelphia as they escaped with a 118-116 win. This team has now won 11 of its last 14, but all three losses have been on the road and four times in the last six games they’ve given up at least 116 points. This time, I’m going to fade the Bucks on the road as they head to Brooklyn to face a Nets team that’s also battling for playoff position. Brooklyn is now 8-3 SU its last 11 games after running out to a 130-123 win over Detroit on Tuesday. They didn’t cover the spread, which was 14 points, dropping to 8-28 ATS at home this season. But that record is a little misleading in that - until recently - Kyrie Irving was ineligible to play here. But Irving is “in the clear” now. It was Kevin Durant leading the way with 41 points on Tuesday. This is a team that has no issue scoring and will be a very dangerous first round matchup, presuming they make it out of the play-in round. Currently, the Nets are 8th and they want to at least maintain that position so they would only need to win once in the play-in round to make the playoffs proper. The Nets won the last meeting, 126-123 in Milwaukee, and that was without Durant. Despite the woeful ATS record at home (it’s a league-worst), I really like the Nets in this spot as I actually think they’re being drastically undervalued on their own floor. Milwaukee is playing its third straight road game while this will be the third straight game at home for Brooklyn. The Bucks are just 4-9 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. I think they are far more desperate to finish in the top eight than Milwaukee is to finish first. 10* Brooklyn |
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03-29-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): The Bucks and Sixers are embroiled in what is a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Although I played against Boston last night, I’ve got the Celtics rated as the best of the bunch, followed by the Heat. But then comes the Bucks, the reigning NBA Champs, who will be looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-102 loss to a Memphis team that was without Ja Morant. Previously, the Bucks had won 10 of 12. I’ve got them rated as the better team than the Sixers, so this short line is not a surprise and I’ll play accordingly. Philadelphia has the same 46-28 SU record as Milwaukee, but with an inferior YTD point differential. The Sixers’ point differential is actually worse than seventh place Cleveland, but they are obviously a different team now with James Harden in the mix. Still, they did just lose by 10 at Phoenix on Sunday with Harden shooting 2 of 11 and finishing with only 14 points. I’ll concede the fact that the Sixers have yet to lose B2B games since acquiring Harden, but they’ve also generally faced weak/undermanned opponents when previously in this situation. For what it’s worth, the Sixers are 0-7 ATS on Tuesdays this season. Milwaukee has not been healthy most of this season, but they are close to 100 percent right now, which should be concerning for the rest of the Eastern Conference. Like the Sixers, the Bucks have not lost B2B games since February. They are 8-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season. Off a loss, the Bucks have been better (in terms of scoring differential) than when off a win. When off a double digit loss, the team’s ATS record is 8-4 in 2021-22. I simply believe the road team to be better in this matchup and am banking on them finishing higher in the standings. Therefore, taking the points is a no-brainer (obviously, given the line, I think the Bucks will win SU). 8* Milwaukee |
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03-29-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +4 | Top | 107-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): While there’s a fascinating four-team race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, also keep an eye on the “next tier” where three teams (Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland) are battling to avoid the play-in round. One of the three will be “odd team out” and finish seventh. As of now, that “odd team out” is Cleveland, though they won last night and are just a game behind the other two. Toronto was also a winner on Monday. Chicago was a loser, blowing a double digit lead and going down 109-104 at the hands of the Knicks. The Bulls are the team I believe will finish as “odd team out.” Chicago is lower than Toronto and Cleveland in my power rankings and has the worst YTD point differential of the three. The Bulls, who overachieved in the first half of the season, have only outscored opponents by 0.4 PPG. That gives them an “expected” won-loss record of 38-37 SU. With five more wins than their “expected” win total, the Bulls are actually the biggest overachiever in the league in that regard. Defensively, they’ve fallen off a cliff since the All-Star Break, and the result is a 4-11 SU record in their L15 games. On the second night of a back to back, I can’t see how this team is favored on the road. Washington has won B2B games for the first time in forever. They shot a season-best 57.1% from three-point range in the 123-115 victory over Golden State on Sunday. While I do not think the Wizards will be able to match that lofty percentage here, they should still shoot well against a Bulls team that is giving up 112.5 PPG on the road this season. The Wiz are still technically alive for the playoffs, so don’t expect them to roll over. They’ve won two in a row as dogs and now have two more winnable home games on the docket (host Orlando tomorrow). Take the points. 10* Washington |
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03-28-22 | Thunder v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 134-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:10 ET): The Blazers may officially be at “rock-bottom” right now as they are coming off back to back losses, both at home, to Houston. The team has won just twice since the All-Star Break (in 15 tries), is without Damian Lillard for the rest of the season, and is now bottom five in my power ratings. But something will have to give here as Portland hosts an Oklahoma City team that has just three wins since the Break and two of them came before March 3rd. The Thunder have lost 11 of their last 12. Now OKC has been covering the spread pretty regularly. They come into tonight on a six-game ATS win streak. However, they were underdogs in all six of those contests. Tonight will be just the THIRD time all season that the Thunder are favored to win and the FIRST on the road. This is a team that is 11-26 SU away from home and scoring just 102.5 PPG. The Thunder are 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in scoring. GETTING points to go against them on the road is a gift, no matter who the opponent may be. Earlier I mentioned that the Blazers don’t have Lillard. Well, OKC has been without its top scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for three of the past four games and there is talk the team may “shut him down” for the remainder of the regular season. The Thunder had just nine players available on Saturday when they lost 113-107 in Denver. The only win for the Thunder in the last three weeks came at home against an Orlando team that is tied for the worst record in the league. At home, Portland plays with pride tonight. 8* Portland |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:40 ET): By virtue of picking up their sixth consecutive win last night, 134-112 over Minnesota, Boston is now in first place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 10 of 11 overall and are #2 overall (behind the Suns) in my personal power rankings. But they probably wish they had Monday off as they come into this game at Toronto with the potential of being extremely short-handed. Al Horford and Robert Williams are already listed as out while both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (65 combined points Sunday) are dealing with sore knees. If Boston is the hottest team in the East, then Toronto is not far behind. The Raptors have won 8 of their last 10 games to climb into the top six. With six of their final eight regular season games in Canada, they’ve got an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in round. The team is off one of its highest scoring efforts of the season on Saturday as they destroyed Indiana by a score of 131-91. They were up 28 in the first half and never looked back. Though Boston is trying to hold on to the top spot, they are in a tougher spot (back to back) and this one might mean more to the Raptors, who are in a tight three-way race to avoid the play-in round. Toronto also has double revenge after losing the last two meetings to the Celtics. The teams have not met since November. Another key edge for the home team is that they will be at full strength. Everything sets up beautifully for the Raptors. 10* Toronto |
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03-27-22 | Hornets +7 v. Nets | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:40 ET): Brooklyn treated me to a win last night as they routed Miami, 110-95, on the road. But I wouldn’t trust the Nets laying this many points in the second half of a back to back, even though Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) is now eligible to play home games. Credit the Nets for winning seven of their last nine games, but this is a team still destined for the play-in round, same as Sunday’s opponent, who has won six of its last seven games. This seems like a great spot to take the points. The Hornets just beat Utah on Friday night, 107-101 as a four-point underdog. That was a game where I cashed the Under. It capped a solid homestand for Charlotte, but the team has also won its last three road games - by an average of more than 20 PPG! The Hornets continued to be underrated by oddsmakers and overlooked by the public. But they are one of the league’s top five scoring teams and when you average 114.7 PPG, you’ll cover more often than not, especially as an underdog. On the road, Charlotte’s scoring average actually goes up to 116.6! Brooklyn has been a disaster at home this season, going 8-26 ATS. Most will attribute that to not having Irving, but overall the Nets are just 15-30 ATS when favored, home or road. They are 4-12 ATS when off a double digit win and 3-8 ATS in the second night of a back to back (2-10 straight up). So, no matter what way you look at it, this is a bad spot for the home favorite. They had two days off prior to last night’s game, after previously losing to Ja Morant-less Grizzlies. 10* Charlotte |
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03-26-22 | Nets -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (8:10 ET): The way things stand now in the Eastern Conference, this could be a potential first round playoff series and I think that would be a nightmare matchup for the top-seeded Heat. Brooklyn has obviously underperformed in 2021-22 and just lost to Memphis, who didn’t have Ja Morant available. But the Nets had won six of seven before that, the lone loss coming by two points at home to Dallas on a buzzer-beater (a game the Nets led by double digits going into the 4Q. Kyrie Irving has now been cleared to play in ALL games (NYC has lifted vaccination requirements), so look out for the Nets. Irving was always going to be able to play tonight regardless and the Nets will definitely be looking for a similar performance to Thursday when he scored a team-high 43 points. Kevin Durant, who is averaging 29.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists this year, added 35 in the loss to Memphis. The problem was the Nets’ bench combined to go just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only 11 points. For tonight, it’s looking like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry will be in the lineup, a big boost. Of course, it’s hard to win in the NBA when you give up 132 points, which is what Brooklyn did against Memphis. I expect vast improvement at that end of the floor here vs. Miami, who is in a terrible spot after blowing a 17-point 4Q lead last night and losing to the Knicks 111-103. That was the Heat’s third straight loss and they are also 0-6 ATS L6 games. A bad time to go cold on South Beach and second-leading scorer Tyler Herro remains out. Brooklyn is 0-3 SU vs. Miami this year, so this is a huge revenge spot that they’ll be up for. 8* Brooklyn |
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03-23-22 | Jazz +6 v. Celtics | Top | 97-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:40 ET): I really respect Boston, but this is too many points to lay to the Jazz, who are looking to bounce back from a loss. Utah has been one of the top teams in the league all season. In fact, I’ve got them second in the power rankings, one spot ahead of the Celtics. So this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Boston is off a 4-0 road trip - where every win came by at least nine points - but it wouldn’t shock me to see them a little “gassed” in their return to Beantown. Meanwhile, with just a one game lead over 5th place Dallas in the race for homecourt advantage, there’s a great sense of urgency for the road team tonight. Take the points. Utah lost in Brooklyn Monday night, 114-106, falling victim to a 37-point performance from Kevin Durant. The Jazz had previously won three straight and the good news is they perform well off a loss. The last time this team lost consecutive games was late January. Since then, they’ve followed their last five SU defeats with a win, including a 15-point victory over Chicago the last time they were in this situation. Something to consider is that while Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency, Utah leads the league in offensive efficiency. They are tough to stop and getting this many points with a team that averages 113.9 PPG is rare. The Celtics actually just gave up 123 to Oklahoma City (who is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league) the other night. Now that number feels like a bit of an aberration, but consider Utah put up 137 when these teams last met, back in December (and there was no overtime). Boston ended up scoring 132 against the Thunder Monday night, but they are just 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 130+ in the previous game. The Jazz have won the last four head to head meetings and a 4-0 ATS their last four trips here to Boston. 8* Utah |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas |
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03-19-22 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-18-22 | Bulls +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago |
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03-16-22 | 76ers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 118-114 | Push | 0 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver |
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03-14-22 | Clippers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland |
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03-13-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game. The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers |
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03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami |
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03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic +7 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
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03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together). The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-09-22 | Bulls -6 v. Pistons | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago |
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03-08-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
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03-07-22 | Blazers +15 v. Wolves | Top | 81-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland |
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03-05-22 | Blazers +14 v. Wolves | Top | 121-135 | Push | 0 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland |
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03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers -7 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday. With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston |
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03-03-22 | Bulls v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta |
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03-02-22 | Thunder +14.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City |
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03-02-22 | Knicks +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits. The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York |
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03-01-22 | Mavs v. Lakers +6 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game. As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers |
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02-28-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:40 ET): This is a huge game for the Bulls. Not just because they are a game back of the Eastern Conference lead, but they are also 0-2 vs. the Heat in the 2021-22 season. Those losses were by three in Chicago and 26 here in Miami and both came before Christmas. The Bulls had won six in a row going into Saturday’s game with Memphis, where they ended up losing by six. As the underdog, I like them plus the points here on Monday. Miami is coming off its highest scoring game since Opening Night. They defeated San Antonio 133-129 on Saturday to improve to 2-0 since the All-Star Break. I find it very difficult to believe that the Heat can match its shooting from the other night as they made 56.6% from the field against the Spurs. It should be noted that the team is 1-6 straight up the last three seasons when coming off a game where they scored 130 or more points. The Heat may be 8-1 SU over their L9 games, but they have also failed to cover the number in four of the last five. Chicago, who has yet to have a losing month all season, is desperate for a “marquee” win this season. Including the 0-2 record vs. Miami, the Bulls are just 1-10 SU against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. Despite injuries, they continue to lean on DeMar DeRozan, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact DeRozan has shot 50% or better from the field in 8 of those 10 games. He and his teammates will shoot better tonight than they did vs. Memphis. The Bulls are 19-4 ATS this season off a non-conference game. 10* Chicago |
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02-27-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:40 ET): The Mavs let one slip away Friday against the Jazz. They were up seven at halftime after shooting 56% from the field and making 10 three-pointers. But the offense went cold in the 2H (just 48 points) and they went down 114-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. That result leaves them now tied with Denver for fifth place in the Western Conference. Things get no easier on Sunday night as the Mavs stay on the road to face Golden State. But the Warriors are not at full strength right now and this is a game the road team can steal. Take the points. The Warriors are second in the West, six games back of the Suns. I do expect that gap to shrink over the course of the next couple months, but for right now the Dubs are still without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is questionable for tonight. They were dominant on Thursday, winning by 37 in Portland, but the Mavs are a far better team than the Blazers. Golden State actually went into the All-Star Break on an 0-7 ATS slide at the betting window while Dallas is 7-1 ATS its last eight games. The irony of Dallas’ defensive breakdown Friday night is that they are one of the league’s top defensive teams. They allow just 103.5 PPG (tied for 2nd in the league) and play at the slowest pace in the league. Controlling the tempo will go a long way here in limiting the Warriors offensively. In two previous meetings, Dallas has held Steph Curry to 3 of 19 shooting from three-point range. I expect this to be a close game where having points in our “back pocket” will be huge. 8* Dallas |
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02-27-22 | Jazz -1 v. Suns | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (3:40 ET): With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both back in the fold, the Jazz are beginning to resemble the team that was quite dominant in the early part of the season (began 26-9 SU). They’ve slipped to fourth in the West, but I think Utah is a lot closer to the top two (Phoenix, Golden State) than most realize and they are better than third place Memphis. Coming from behind to defeat Dallas on Friday was a solid start to the second half of the season and I think the Jazz are prepared to make a definitive “statement” this afternoon on national TV against Phoenix. There’s been some substantial line movement for this game as the Suns are going to be without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. This puts the home team at a significant disadvantage for a matchup that would have been pretty even, if they were at full strength. I faded the Suns on Friday when they lost outright at home to New Orleans, 117-102, as a 6.5-point favorite. You could see the effect of not having Paul on the floor as the offense grew stagnant. Also, historically, the Suns’ turnover rate goes way up when not having Paul in the lineup. This is a double revenge game for Utah, who lost twice to Phoenix last month, by six and eight points. The games were played in a three-day span and the Jazz were without Mitchell and Gobert for both games. Mike Conley also missed the second meeting. Yet Utah was actually ahead in the 4Q of that game, despite being without three All Stars. Now it’s Phoenix playing with a depleted roster. While the Suns must still be respected, I’m expecting a bit of a second-half decline from them while the Jazz should surge into the top three in the Western Conference. Love this spot for the Jazz. 10* Utah |
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02-26-22 | Kings +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (9:10 ET): These teams are meeting for the second time in three days. While Denver ended up “running away” with a 128-110 victory on Thursday, its second double digit win over Sacramento this season, the game was actually much closer most of the way. The Kings’ deficit was only five points entering the 4Q and that’s despite poor shooting from three-point range (ended up 9 of 29). I anticipate the Kings will shoot better tonight and thus taking the points is the move here. Now is also probably a great time to fade the Nuggets as they are a season-best nine games above .500. The goal for them is obviously to finish in the top six of the Western Conference, which they probably will, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team that has twice won by a single point during its current four-game win streak. The Nuggets also shot 55.8% from the floor on Thursday, which I cannot seem them duplicating tonight. They are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite in 2021-22. The Kings radically changed their roster at the trade deadline as they are desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought (2006). Entering Saturday, they are 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot as they’ve dropped three in a row going back to before the All-Star Break. It feels like this five-game road trip is going to be a “tipping point” either way for their season. I just don’t seem them losing big again, and honestly an outright win seems more likely in this situation. They are 5-1 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. 10* Sacramento |
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02-26-22 | Raptors v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:40 ET): This is a TERRIBLE spot for Toronto, who just got wiped out last night in Charlotte. It was a 32-point loss at Charlotte in the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star Break. While they were a hot team prior to the Break, winning 9 of 11, we saw none of that last night as the Raptors trailed by as many as 41 points in the 3Q! Pascal Siakam played, despite flu-like symptoms, and shot just 3 of 13 from the field. The Raptors were outrebounded badly and let the Hornets shoot 55% overall. Atlanta lost a close on Thursday, 112-108 in Chicago. They fell victim to DeMar DeRozan as a lot of teams have this month. The Bulls scored the game’s final seven points. The Hawks ended up being a bit short-handed as De’Andre Hunter missed the 2H because of illness, Lou Williams played just 12 minutes and John Collins and Gorgui Deng were both out. Yet the Hawks were right there at the end and that’s despite shooting just 8 of 28 from three-point range and 18 of 27 at the free throw line. Both of these teams obviously feel they will play better on Saturday. But the Hawks are better rested and at home. Trae Young is certainly going to have a bounce back effort here after going just 3 of 17 and scoring 14 points on Thursday. Atlanta also needs the win more as they are 10th in the East, only one game ahead of Washington. This is a double revenge spot for the Hawks, who have twice lost to the Raptors over the last month. I like them to get the job done. 8* Atlanta |
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02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:10 ET): The Suns played last night and won 124-104 in OKC. Thus they picked up right where they left off before the All-Star Break and have now won eight in a row (and 19 of 20!) and continue to pace the Western Conference with a remarkable 49-10 overall record. This is the best team in the NBA right now, there’s no denying that. But laying this many points, in the second night of a back to back, immediately following a long break seems like as good a time as any to fade them. New Orleans is looking to get that last play-in spot. They are 12th in the West, but only 1.5 games back of Portland. Before the Break, they dropped four of five (all at home). But, unlike the Suns, the Pelicans are rested coming into Friday’s tilt. Also, while the overall record may not sound all that impressive, consider the fact the Pelicans started the year 3-16. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball and been competitive. They now have CJ McCollum, who they acquired from Portland in a trade at the deadline. Lost in the Suns’ margin of victory last night is the fact they don’t have Chris Paul (injured) right now. They didn’t need their floor leader against a hapless side like the Thunder, but here it should matter more. I know the Suns have beaten the Pelicans twice so far this season, both times by double digits. But the situation really favors the underdog tonight and they didn’t shoot well in either of those first two head to head matchups. They’re a better team now than they were in January (when they last faced PHX). Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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02-24-22 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:10 ET): Chicago entered the All-Star Break tied with Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, there are certain metrics (point differential, net efficiency) that suggest the Bulls are a little lucky to be in the position they currently find themselves in. I’ve got them rated fifth among the Eastern Conference contenders, which obviously suggests a drop here in the second half of the season. Thus, I’ll be fading them coming out the break tonight as they are laying points. Atlanta got off to a VERY slow start this season, but has clawed its way into 10th place in the East and that would give them a shot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Hawks can necessarily finish any better than 8th, but they should have a better second half to the season than they did the first half. The team averaged 127 points in a pair of wins before the break and I think they should put up some points here as Chicago has not been the same defensively since losing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to injury. The Bulls are on a five-game win streak coming out of the break, but the Hawks have won 11 of their last 16. All eyes are on DeMar DeRozan, who is the first Chicago player to score 30+ points in eight straight games since Michael Jordan. But Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 29.2 PPG his last nine games as well. Remember that the Hawks were in the Eastern Conference finals last season. They remember losing a pair of games to Chicago right after X-Mas and I think will be out for revenge. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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02-17-22 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The 76ers were absolutely housed Tuesday night in Boston, losing 135-87 as a two-point underdog. You can bet they will be eager to wash away that embarrassment as they play their final game before the All-Star Break. Now it’s a tough one, in Milwaukee, on TNT. But the Bucks have failed to cover three in a row, losing two of the games straight up. They were blown out in Phoenix, then lost as 12-point favorites here at home to Portland, a real shocker. The Bucks needed 50 from Giannis Antetokounmpo to down Indiana on Tuesday 128-119. While Giannis has seven 40+ point games already this season (already a career-high), the team cannot count on such a performance every night. The Bucks are just 7-15 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS when off three consecutive Overs. Both situations apply here. As you’d expect, that loss to the Celtics saw Philly’s Joel Embiid turn in his lowest point total in quite some time. Embiid has been a beast this season and I expect a big game from him tonight. Yes, the Sixers are still without James Harden, but it’s still the same team that’s been in the top five of the East for most of the season. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Sixers as Tuesday was the sixth worst loss in franchise history. They are not that bad and will show up here to compete. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-17-22 | Heat v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:10 ET): The Hornets could really use a win going into the All-Star Break. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall including six straight at home. Few setbacks were more painful than what happened Tuesday night in Minnesota. Charlotte led that game the majority of the way, but allowed the T’wolves to tie it and force overtime. It ended up being a 126-120 loss for the Hornets. I don’t even want to get into what that did for my Under play (on 244). Anyway, I do expect the Hornets to come out pretty fired up tonight and cover the spread. Take the points. Charlotte is the highest scoring team in the NBA currently, averaging 113.8 points per game. So they’ve got that going for them. The problem is that they haven’t been scoring a ton recently. Only twice in the last six home games have they topped 101. But they did have 108 in regulation vs. Minnesota and before that scored 118 vs. Memphis and 141 vs, Detroit. Having just blown a 13-point 4Q lead in their last game, the Hornets should come out motivated tonight and I’m expecting them to hit their season average. Miami is off a 107-99 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, at home. Jimmy Butler, who led the team with 29 points in that game, may not be suiting up this evening. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out again (knee). So this is a great opportunity for Charlotte and adding “fuel to the fire” is that they have double revenge for a pair of losses to the Heat earlier this season. 10* Charlotte |
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02-16-22 | Blazers +11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): While I don’t think that the Blazers are going to be able to match their most recent performance, which was an excellent 122-107 win (as 12-point underdogs!) at Milwaukee, the chances of them being blown out here in Memphis tonight also seem remote. This is the second game of a back to back from the Grizzlies, who were 121-109 winners last night in New Orleans thanks to holding the Pelicans to a paltry 15.4% shooting from three-point range. You’ve got to think Portland shoots better than that. Right? The Blazers have won three in a row, not only upsetting Milwaukee, but the Lakers and Knicks as well. HC Chauncey Billups called the win over Milwaukee “probably our best game.” Portland outrebounded Milwaukee 58-43 and got the lead up to 21 in the third quarter. That was a really impressive win for the Blazers, who reshaped the roster at the trade deadline as they look to hold on to the last play-in spot, which they currently occupy (holding a one-game lead over New Orleans). Memphis has an incredible first half to the season as they are 41-18 SU, the third best record in the league. I actually have them rated as the fourth best team in the conference (behind Utah), although still better than everyone from the East. I just think that this spot is not ideal, laying double digits without rest and returning home after a three-game road trip. Ja Morant is on the injury report (questionable) with an ankle. The Grizzlies have actually lost twice to the Blazers this season, once by five here at home. Take the points. 10* Portland |
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02-14-22 | Warriors -6 v. Clippers | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:40 ET): The Warriors appeared to be headed for a third straight defeat on Saturday. They trailed the Lakers by six with 3:47 to play, but then Klay Thompson took over and ended up with a season-high 33 points. It was a 117-115 win for the Dubs, but they have still failed to cover five in a row, a streak that includes outright losses to the Jazz and Knicks. I expect a strong effort tonight against a Clippers team that just isn’t very good. Lay the points. The Clippers also won by two points on Saturday, outlasting Dallas 99-97, despite 45 points from Luka Doncic. Doncic had 51 when the teams played on Thursday. That game was won by the Mavericks 112-105. The two games prior saw the Clips surrender 135+ points. They currently sit eighth in the West and I don’t see any upward mobility for them. Not as long as Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both remain out. These teams have not met since November. Golden State has won both meetings this year, by two at home and by 15 on the road. I’m not all concerned about the five-game ATS losing streak as the Warriors had won nine in a row before that. They are #2 overall in my power rankings (only trailing Phoenix) and continue to play great defense (#1 in efficiency). The Clippers just don’t have enough answers offensively to keep pace. 10* Golden State |
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02-12-22 | Cavs +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:40 ET): Two teams that won last night are back in action on Saturday with Cleveland traveling to Philadelphia. The Cavs continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the league as they are second in the East (!) with a 35-21 record after coming back to defeat Indiana 120-113 last night. They actually trailed by 21 points early on (in the first quarter) but outscored the Pacers 32-17 in the fourth. It was the second time in three games that the Cavs erased a 20+ point deficit to beat the Pacers. The Sixers are 1.5 games back of the Cavs, in fifth place in the East. They beat Oklahoma City 100-87 on Friday as Joel Embiid had his 22nd consecutive game with 25+ points. A dominant third quarter was the difference against the Thunder, whom Philly held to 38.9% from the field, including 6 of 35 from three-point range. That was a much needed defensive effort as the Sixers only shot 38.7% overall themselves and were 7 of 26 from beyond the arc. The key here is that Philly continues to be short-handed as James Harden and Paul Milsap, both acquired at the trade deadline, have not yet been cleared to play. Cleveland could be without Darius Garland (questionable), but remember they just went out and got Caris LeVert from Indiana. It had to be painful for Pacers’ fans seeing LeVert go for 22 last night. This Cavs team is pretty deep as seven players were in double figures last night. They are also #1 in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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02-11-22 | Wolves v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:10 ET): This game has the highest O/U line of the NBA season. Points are to be expected with the Timberwolves having gone Over in 11 of the last 12 games and the Bulls doing the same in seven of their last eight. But the key for me here is that the T’wolves are dealing with multiple injuries to their starting lineup, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. When they don’t have their full starting five intact, this is a much different team. Now obviously Chicago knows a thing or two about injuries as well. Missing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso has really hurt the team defense, but the Bulls just turned in their best game in a while, beating Charlotte on the road, 121-109 as 1.5-point favorites. They’ve fallen out of first place in the Eastern Conference, but the Bulls still have won four of seven despite the recent defensive issues. It helps that they are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30+ points in four consecutive games. The team has shot better than 51% from the floor in six of its last nine contests. Minnesota is coming off a 132-119 loss at Sacramento. Six players are currently listed as questionable for tonight, including Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley. This is the Timberwolves’ third road game in four nights and it comes after playing two (both in Sacramento) on the West Coast. The T’wolves’ offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as the Bulls and defensively they are giving up 116.5 PPG on the road this season. This looks like a spot where the home team will roll. 10* Chicago |
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02-10-22 | Raptors v. Rockets +8.5 | Top | 139-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:10 ET): These two teams certainly couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions as Toronto has won and covered seven straight while Houston is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS its last eight games. But they don’t call the pointspread “the great equalizer” for no reason. Tonight’s game not only marks the second game of a back to back for the Raptors, it is also their third road game in four nights. Eventually this team is going to run out of “steam” and not be able to win by a significant margin. Look for that to be the case here. Last night saw the Raptors win in OKC, 117-98. They scored a few more than I thought they would (I played the Under), thanks to shooting 51.1% from the floor. Shooting 68.4% in the 1Q essentially handed them the game right off the bat. But I don’t think that kind of shooting can/will continue. The current win streak, and last few games in particular, have seen the Raptors shoot far above their season average. It’s also worth noting that four of the seven wins have been by six points or less, or in overtime. Houston just got swept in a home and home by New Orleans. Incredibly, the last seven games have all seen Rockets’ opponents shoot better than 51% from the floor. You just don’t see that very often, even from teams as low in the standings as this one. Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Rockets, but I’m going to call for a “cleaner game” here tonight and coupled with inevitable defensive improvement, taking the points in this spot seems prudent. Toronto is 8-2 ATS playing with no rest, but only winning by four points per game and while this is their third game in a row being road favorites, it’s just the fourth time ALL YEAR (the first was an outright loss in Detroit). 10* Houston |
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02-08-22 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 109-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-07-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:10 ET): Teams trending in different directions meet Monday in Charlotte. The Raptors are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games while the Hornets are 1-4 SU/ATS. After four straight close wins, one when I took them against Chicago, the Raptors beat Atlanta 125-114 on Friday. That was their second win over a Hawks team that is 8-3 SU its last 11 games. Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor, including 17 of 27 from three-point range. They’ve climbed into the top six in the Eastern Conference standings. Charlotte’s last two losses, to Cleveland and Miami, both occurred here at home. The Hornets held second half leads in both games, but really wilted Saturday vs. the Heat, eventually losing 104-86. Gordon Hayward was scoreless, on 0 for 7 shooting, in his second game back from an ankle injury. Let’s also not forget that Charlotte is dead last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 PPG. Thus, it’s a major concern that they are averaging just 96 PPG themselves over the last four contests. These teams met two weeks ago, north of the border, and the Raptors won 125-113. It was another efficient offensive game as the Raptors shot 52.4% and made 16 threes. Look for them to continue to roll tonight. 10* Toronto |
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02-06-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (3:40 ET): The 76ers have lost two in a row. These losses leave them fifth in the East, but only two games out of first. Tied for first (with Miami) is Chicago, but I’m not banking on the Bulls finishing atop the heap. Five teams, the Sixers among them, have better point differentials over the course of the season. You may recall that just recently (Thursday), I played against the Bulls when they went to Toronto. They lost there, 127-120 in overtime, as a 4.5-point dog. It was impressive that they were able to bounce back the following night and beat the Pacers 122-115 on the road. But I see a downturn coming. Five of the last six games have seen Chicago shoot better than 51% from the floor. That’s quite the stretch of hot shooting and in my view, it’s likely to subside. Something to take note of is the Bulls are tied for 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 109.7 points per game. So it’s been imperative that they shoot as well as they have. But if the hot shooting starts to curtail, then the lack of defense probably means trouble. Case in point; they’ve shot poorly in two losses to Philly this season. The last time these teams met was back in November, but the Bulls made only 40.2% of their FG attempts and lost 114-105 here at home. They also lost 103-98 in Philly two days prior. In the two losses, they’ve gone just 13 of 50 from three-point range. The Sixers got off to a hot start in Dallas Friday night, but scored only 35 points in the 2H, mostly facing a zone. I just think the Sixers are better (notable they’re favored!), especially seeing as the Bulls will probably be short-handed. Philly has beaten Chicago nine straight times. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-05-22 | Suns v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 95-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): For the Suns and Wizards, the last month or so has gone quite differently. Phoenix has raced to the best record in the NBA at 41-10 SU while Washington has fallen off and is now three games below .500, outside the top 10 in the East. But this is a lot of points that the Wizards are getting at home tonight. They just won for us, upsetting Philadelphia on the road Wednesday, 106-103 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Suns are off their first loss in more than three weeks. This is a good spot to take the points. Now Washington’s only two wins since Jan 12 have both come against the Sixers. They also beat them 117-98 on Jan 17. That’s still the last time the Wizards won a home game. Let it be known though that four of their five straight losses in the Nation’s capital have been by five points or less. Bradley Beal may be out, but Kyle Kuzma stepped up with 24 points on Weds, leading five players in double figures. This team averages just over 110 PPG at home, so I’m not worried about the offense here. Phoenix just gave up 124 points in its loss to Atlanta Thursday. That ended an 11-game win streak. Everyone is going to be expecting the Suns to get back in the win column here, but this feels like a total “letdown” spot as they’ve got “bigger games” (at Chicago and Philadelphia) on deck. When these teams met earlier this year, Phoenix was favored by only nine at home. I believe the home dog will play surprisingly well in this spot. 10* Washington. |
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02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:10 ET): The Thunder obviously aren’t a very good team, but they are pesky. An underdog in all but two games this season, they have a 32-17 ATS record. That’s the top cover rate in the league. Despite not having leading scorer Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the team has won its last two games - upsetting Portland and Dallas. It’s another matchup with Portland tonight, and don’t fall for the revenge angle. The Blazers are also not a very good team and are missing their top scorer (Damian Lillard). It was a 98-81 OKC victory when these teams met Monday. Portland was playing the second night of a back to back after losing 130-118 in Chicago Sunday afternoon. They scored just 50 points over the final three quarters in the loss to the Thunder. Offense was again an issue on Wednesday (another time I played against them) when they fell 99-94 to the LeBron-less Lakers. Once again, in three of the four quarters, the Blazers were held to 22 points or less. This isn’t a good defensive team either; they rank bottom five in the league in points allowed. The loss to the Lakers also dropped Portland to 2-8 ATS this season following a game where they allowed fewer than 100 points. They’re back in that same situation again here. This spread is just too high for a team that’s being outscored by four points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 16-9 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. Luguentz Dort has averaged 25 points over the L3 games, filling in nicely for Alexander. 8* Oklahoma City |
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02-03-22 | Kings +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:10 ET): Though it’s the second game of a back to back and they’re facing the Warriors, I’m taking the Kings plus the points here. Last night, they defeated Brooklyn, at home, by a score of 112-101. While the Nets didn’t have Kevin Durant, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden suited up for them. The Kings didn’t have their leading scorer (De’Aaron Fox) or Marvin Bagley III in the lineup. So I’d say that was a pretty impressive win for them! Golden State was very lucky to beat San Antonio on Tuesday. They sat virtually half the roster and were down 17 in the third quarter. Somehow, they pulled off an improbable rally to win 124-120. It was the seventh straight win for the Warriors, however note that four of those have been by four points or fewer. Though Curry, Thompson and Wiggins are all expected to play tonight, several other contributors (including Draymond Green) remain out. Knowing they have the next three days off, the Dubs may not give this one their full attention. Sacramento is desperate to make the playoffs this year, even if it’s simply a play-in game. They have the longest active postseason drought in the league. Before beating the Nets last night, the Kings had lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. They can’t afford another bad performance. Do I think they win this game outright? Probably not. But I do see them keeping it close as the Warriors are 1-4 ATS coming off a win where they were the underdog. 10* Sacramento |
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02-03-22 | Bulls v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:40 ET): The Raptors have some scores to settle tonight. They’ve lost to the Bulls twice this season, 111-108 (here at home) back in October and 111-105 last week in Chicago. But since that second loss to the Bulls, Toronto has rattled off three straight impressive victories, including 110-106 over Miami on Tuesday. Yes, the Raptors certainly appeared to take advantage of the fact Miami was playing for a fourth time in five nights. But Gary Trent Jr has been a “man on a mission,” scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games (had 33 vs. the Heat). Toronto is now eighth in the Eastern Conference. Like the six teams ahead of them, they are chasing the Bulls, who lead the conference with a 32-18 overall record. But I don’t see Chicago holding onto that top spot for much longer. They are actually sixth in the East in point differential. The Bulls have shot incredibly well each of the L4 games (54.8%, 52.3%, 55.6% and 51.1%). But I’m not sure they can count on that hot shooting to continue. The Raptors are pretty solid defensively, at least at home where they allow just 104.5 PPG. The last time these teams met, Toronto was in the second night of a back to back. This time, they have rest and are at home. The Bulls have given up more points than they’ve allowed on the road this year and the last time they played on the road, they gave up 130 to the Spurs. Going back to the start of December, they have just ONE road win by more than four points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home favorite. 8* Toronto |
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02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:40 ET): Just as Anthony Davis returned, the Lakers lost LeBron James. It’s been “that kind of season” in Tinseltown as the Lakers are three games below .500 and in ninth place in the Western Conference. They’d gotten back to the Mendoza line (.500) a week ago when they beat Brooklyn 106-96. But after that it’s been three straight losses where every opponent has shot better than 50%. The Hawks shot 58.3% against LA in a game that ended up being 129-121 on Sunday. But tonight the Lakers are back at home and I think this one should go well. The team they are facing, Portland, is a pretty horrid 7-17 SU on the road and just got beat in OKC, 98-81 as a four-point favorite. The Blazers are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season. They too are dealing with injuries. Damian Lillard is out as are Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. The Lakers have covered each of the last four times they’ve been off an ATS loss. They did not cover against the Hawks, just missing out as 7.5-point dogs. I think Davis should have his way here against a Portland team that gives up 113.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Lakers should start to improve as well. It can’t get any worse than it did vs. Atlanta. The Blazers scored just 50 points over the final three quarters vs. the Thunder, who were playing without their leading scorer. Lay the points. 8* LA Lakers |
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02-02-22 | Wizards +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards have been in a real “rut” of late, losing six in a row. Things have been even more disastrous at the betting window with them not only failing to cover in each of those six straight losses, but also 12 of the last 13 games overall. Perhaps we all should have seen this downfall coming; the Wizards had been winning a lot of close games early on. They actually have the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only lowly Orlando and Detroit. But tonight the Wiz are finally getting plenty of “help” (points) from the oddsmakers and I think it’s a good time to take them. Yes, they are currently without leading scorer Bradley Beal. But for 3+ quarters, they hung with the Bucks last night, even taking the lead with just under nine minutes to go. It was a one-point game with only five minutes left, but the Wizards scored only four points after that. It was a pretty brutal ATS loss. Of course, nothing like the previous Tuesday when they blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Clippers. I just think it’s time for Washington to punch a winning ticket. Philadelphia may be on a five-game win streak, but only one of those wins have been by greater than 10 points and the last two have been by a combined five points. The Wizards last win came against the Sixers, by 19 points. Philly is coming off a 122-119 win over Memphis, and Joel Embiid did not play, but they are 2-7 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. The last time in that situation was when they faced Washington! Take the points here. 10* Washington |
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01-31-22 | Warriors -10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:10 ET): The Warriors seem to have hit their stride again, winning their last five games. Those five victories have come by an average of 11 PPG, which is basically what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While that average margin of victory is somewhat skewed because of a 130-92 blowout of Dallas last week, the Dubs should have little difficulty blowing out a downtrodden Houston team that is playing without starting PG Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have lost 10 in a row at home, the last two coming by a combined 45 points. Golden State was able to down Brooklyn 110-106 Saturday night in a marquee matchup. Now the Nets did not have either Kevin Durant or James Harden, which made the task a lot easier for the Warriors. But the Warriors’ cold shooting and having only 10 players suit up kept that game close. I really think we’re due for a “big” Steph Curry game as he’s failed to hit his season average of 25.7 PPG in four of the last five games. He’s shooting 36.9% in January, which is odd. The Warriors can always seem to rely on their defense, which leads the league in scoring, giving up only 102.0 PPG. The Rockets are at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up a league-high 116.8 PPG. This happens to be a matchup of my #1 ranked vs. #29 ranked team in the power ratings. So it’s about as big of a mismatch as you can have. I know that it ended up being just a two-point game when these teams met ten days ago in San Francisco. But Curry didn’t make a single shot until 48 seconds were left in the first half and Klay Thompson sat that game out. Lay the points tonight. 10* Golden State |
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01-30-22 | Blazers +6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
10* Portland (3:40 ET): I faded Chicago on Friday night and got a win from San Antonio. The Bulls now are set to face a Western Conference team with a slightly better record than the Spurs and that’s Portland, who already beat them once this season, 112-107 back in November. Despite not having top scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers are fighting their way back up the Western Conference pecking order. They’ve won five of seven on the road and I don’t see them getting blown out here. Take the points. As I said in Friday’s analysis, Chicago’s point differential is only seventh best among Eastern Conference teams. So do not be surprised if they fall down a few spots in the standings. Injuries and COVID have been a factor for them this month. While the Bulls’ record at home remains solid, they have struggled defensively as they just allowed 131 points in the loss to the Spurs. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, so they are still short-handed. The team is 0-2 SU this season after allowing 130+ pts last game. The Blazers are getting contributions from a wide variety of players right now. Three players scored 25 or more points in Friday’s 125-110 win at Houston. It was the team’s third straight win away from home. Obviously, Houston isn’t very good, but the Blazers have also won at Boston and Toronto recently. They’ve covered the previous six trips to the Windy City and right now a case could be made that they are playing better basketball than the Bulls. Since 1/9, Portland is 7-4. Chicago is 4-8. 10* Portland |
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01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:10 ET): The Wizards have had three full days to get over the meltdown against the Clippers, which saw them blow a 35-point lead and lose 116-115. It’s tough times in the Nation’s Capital right now as the Wiz have lost four in a row and are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference. Three of those four losses have been by four points or less, two by a single point each. Now some would call that “comeuppance” after their rash of close victories to start the season. Things are even more dire at the betting window where Washington is just 1-10 its last 11 games. However, they have gone off as the favorite in all but three of those 11 contests. Their lone cover in this stretch came as an underdog, when they beat Philadelphia 117-98. Rested, they are getting points here against a Memphis team that has been hot, but also is playing without rest. The Grizzlies won again last night, beating Utah 119-119. It was their second straight win after a five-game stretch where they went just 2-3 straight up. There haven’t been many losses for Memphis the last two months as they are 25-7 SU L32 games, including 11-3 SU and ATS this month. But this is a tough spot against a motivated team. Look for the visitors to at least keep within the number, or possibly take the game outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs remain one of the more “curious cases” in the league as they have the point differential of a team you’d expect to be right around .500, but instead they are 13 games below. At home, they’ve actually outscored their opponents this season, but somehow have a 9-16 SU record here. Coming off another tough home loss, 118-110 to red-hot Memphis, I’m banking on a strong effort from San Antonio and a much “overdue” win. Comparing the Spurs and Bulls, in certain metrics, is certainly interesting. The Spurs have the eighth best point differential in the Western Conference, despite their .367 win percentage. They should be, at least, in position for one of the play-in spots. As for the Bulls, they’ve spent time atop the Eastern Conference standings and currently sit second with a 30-17 SU record. But they only have the seventh best point differential in the East. It’s been a great start to the season in the Windy City, but I do see them as likely to drop down a few spots. Beating Oklahoma City and Toronto earlier in the week marked the first time that Chicago has won B2B games since January 7th. Injuries and COVID-19 have certainly been a factor with this team, but let’s also note that their two road wins this month both came by a single point. Going back to the start of December, the Bulls have just one road win by more than four points. San Antonio is getting great production of late from PG Murray, who already has 10 triple-doubles this season. Chicago will NOT shoot 39 of 58 again, from two-point range, like they did vs. Toronto. 8* San Antonio |
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01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:10 ET): I understand who the hotter team is here. Phoenix, who leads the NBA with a 37-9 SU record, has won its last seven games and 10 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Utah has been slumping over its last 10 games, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. But the fact the Jazz, severely short-handed, were able to “keep up” with the Suns two nights ago on the road was an encouraging sign. Six of their nine top scorers did not play in the game Monday, including Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic and Conley. Most of them are set to return tonight, so I’m taking the points as this is the 1st time all season the Jazz have been underdogs at home. Despite the recent slide, I’ve still got the Jazz rated #3 in my own power ratings. The last two games have seen them lose close decisions to the top two teams, Golden State and Phoenix, both on the road. Utah covered the spread in both games, much needed relief for their backers after going 4-14 ATS the previous 18 games. Even without most of their best players, the Jazz were up in the fourth quarter Monday in Phoenix, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Seven players actually finished in double figures. The Suns are also playing without some key pieces, namely Payne, Ayton and Crowder. So they aren’t at full strength either here. As I said earlier, this will be the first time this season that Utah is getting points at home. It does appear as if Gobert and Mitchell will again be out, but the other players should be back and if a skeleton crew could stick with the Suns on the road, then it stands to reason a more “complete” roster can also cover the number at home. The Jazz will badly want this win, knowing the game is on national television. 8* Utah |
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01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington |
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01-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Memphis hasn’t lost B2B games since a three-game losing streak right before X-Mas. Since that three-game slide, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games and now have a rather ridiculous 22-6 SU record over their last 28 games. But they have been blown out two of the last three times they’ve taken the court, including 126-114 at Milwaukee on Wednesday. I’ll call for them to lose B2B games - for the first time in almost a month - as they visit Denver tonight, short-handed. The Grizzlies likely will not have two of their top three scorers for this game. Dillon Brooks is out with an injured ankle while Desmond Bane is in health and safety protocol. That’s a tough break when getting set to face a Nuggets team that has scored 130 (or more) points in three of its last four contests. Now the last game saw Denver have to go to OT to beat the Clippers, but they got a triple double from MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 49 points. As the season progresses, expect the Nuggets to solidify themselves as a top six team in the West. Memphis is 14-7 SU on the road thus far, but their point differential indicates that might be a fortunate mark. They’re only scoring 0.4 PPG more than they allow away from home. This is a big double revenge game for Denver as they’ve lost twice at Memphis this season, including by just two points in the last meeting. Both those games were in early November. It’s not just two of the top three scorers that are out for the Grizzlies, three other players are in protocol as well. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to take advantage. 10* Denver |
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01-19-22 | Nets +2 v. Wizards | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:10 ET): I gotta believe this is where the Nets get back on track. I know that they are without Kevin Durant for the time being, but James Harden is still here and because tonight is a road game, that means Kyrie Irving is eligible to play. The Nets have been better this season on the road anyway, sporting a 15-5 SU record (as opposed to only 12-11 SU at home). They did lose in Cleveland on Monday, but have won four straight off a SU loss. Take the points. This play is also guided by the fact I’m not a big believer in the Wizards, who I think could fall out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference by season’s end. Propping the Wizards up so far is an extremely fortunate 8-2 SU record in games decided by three points or less. That’s the most “close wins” in the league right now. In fact, no other team has more than five. The Wiz are also 3-0 SU in OT games this season. Now I’ll give them some credit for an impressive 117-98 beatdown of Philadelphia the other night. But before that, Washington had failed to cover six straight games. Five of those ATS losses were as favorites. Brooklyn has also struggled at the betting window this month, going just 2-9 ATS their L11 games. So something will have to “give” in that regard tonight. I just find it hard to believe, that with Harden and Irving in the lineup, that the Nets are underdogs to a team like the Wizards, who have the third worst point differential and fourth worst net efficiency in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 4-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-17-22 | Suns v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days. San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio |
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01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah |
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01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:40 ET): The Bulls didn’t just lose a game last night, they also lost Zach LaVine to a knee injury. LaVine did not travel with the team to Boston as he’s set to have a MRI. The belief is that the injury isn’t too serious, but obviously he isn’t playing Saturday. Chicago’s depth was already being tested with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green and Tyler Cook all on the mend. Perhaps of greater concern is that the Bulls have now given up 138 points in B2B games, letting the Nets and Warriors both shoot 56% from the field. Now the Celtics aren’t as prolific as either of those two squads, but they are capable of hanging a big number on the Bulls here. Boston was also in action Friday night and the result wasn’t good as they fell 111-99 at Philadelphia. They were down by as many as 28 thanks to a terrible first quarter. But the game prior saw the C’s shoot rather well as they got 30+ point games from both Tatum and Brown. This is a better team at home where their SU record is 13-8. Chicago has lost its last two games by a combined 68 points, so they are reeling. That’s the first time since the NBA instituted the conference format (in 1970) that a first place team lost consecutive games by an average of 30 PPG. This is a big revenge spot for Boston, who blew a 14-point 4Q lead here at home and lost to Chicago back on Nov 1. Even before the LaVine injury, I was a bit skeptical of the Bulls’ ability to remain on top of the East. The Celtics, meanwhile, should be higher than they are in the standings. Lay the points. 10* Boston |
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01-14-22 | Magic +11 v. Hornets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): It’s been a great four-game run for Charlotte, who won by 29 over Detroit, beat Milwaukee twice (both times at home) and then went to Philadelphia to pick up a 109-98 victory on Wednesday. The Hornets are now up to seventh in the East and just one game out of fifth. This despite having a negative scoring differential on the season and the second worst scoring defense in the league. This is a big number for them to lay; they’ve only been favored in 10 games all season! Meanwhile, Orlando hasn’t been able to get over the hump. They suffered a 10th consecutive loss on Wednesday, falling in Washington 112-106 to the Wizards. I cashed them as underdogs though. Five of the Magic’s last six losses have been by six points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in four of those six games. Wednesday saw them dig an early hole (trailed 33-16 after 1Q) but they fought back valiantly. As they have gotten closer to full strength, the Magic have had four different leading scorers in the last five games. What will cost Charlotte the cover in this game is their defense. I know that they somehow held Milwaukee and Philadelphia below 100 points the L2 games. But for the season, the Hornets are allowing 115.5 PPG. Unless they “go off” at the offensive end (something I don’t see happening), it’s going to be incredibly difficult to cover a spread this large with the defensive regression I am projecting. Orlando does have double revenge here from two prior losses to the Hornets this season. Both losses were by single digits. 8* Orlando |
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01-13-22 | Blazers v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 108-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Portland is in a very bad spot here. They are now without both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for an indefinite period of time. The starting backcourt is really the “heart and soul” of this team and truthfully the Blazers haven’t even been that strong this year when one or both plays. They have a 16-24 SU record, including 2-13 away from home where they are being beaten by an average of 12.2 PPG! The underdog role has not suited them well as their ATS record when getting points is just 5-14. I know they were able to stun Brooklyn the other night, but that was at home. For the record, Lillard is undergoing abdominal surgery and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks time. McCollum has missed the previous 16 games due to a lung injury and paternity leave. Denver isn’t about to take it easy on the undermanned Blazers. Not after blowing a 25-point lead and losing 87-85 to the Clippers on Tuesday. Coach Michael Malone ripped his team after it was outscored 32-19 in the final quarter by LA. So the Nuggets should be motivated from the “get-go” here. Earlier in the year, they hosted Portland and won 124-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering all the absences for the Blazers tonight, I’m really surprised the home team isn’t favored by more. It’s not just Lillard and McCollum that are out for Portland. They were without Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr on Tuesday, making the win over the Nets all the more shocking. Neither of those two are expected to play tonight either. Nor is Cody Zeller or Anfernee Simmons. Playing with a “skeleton crew” couldn’t come at a worse time as the team is about to embark on a six-game road trip. Denver is top five in the league in PPG allowed at home. This should get ugly in a hurry, so lay the points. 10* Denver |