Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Panthers/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Dallas is a last-second FG away from being 3-0. Since losing 31-29 to the Bucs on Opening Night, America’s Team has bounced back with wins over the Chargers (on a last second FG) and the Eagles Monday Night. The offense is coming off a 41-point effort and has run for an average of 179 yards in its two wins. You can’t forget about QB Dak Prescott either. He threw for over 400 yards against Tampa Bay. As expected, the Cowboys are very good offensively. Carolina is 3-0 SU for the first time since 2015 when it made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton as MVP. Like Dallas, the Panthers are also 3-0 ATS. Their defense is #1 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in scoring. But they’ve been fortunate to face two rookie QBs (one a backup) and Jameis Winston. This will be - by far - their toughest assignment of the young season. The team has gone Under in six straight games dating back to last season. But I see that streak coming to an end here. The Panthers will be without RB Christian McCaffery. However, QB Sam Darnold is off B2B 300+ yard games as he looks to win three straight starts for the first time in his career. The Cowboys’ defense gives up over 400 yards per game, so even without McCaffery, the Panthers should move the ball and score. They would seem to have an advantage due to being off a “mini-bye” (played last Thursday) while Dallas played on MNF. But Prescott has averaged 347 yards passing his last three times playing on a short week. 8* Over Panthers/Cowboys |
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10-02-21 | Auburn v. LSU -3 | Top | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
8* LSU (9:00 ET): Auburn has already lost once as an underdog this season. That loss came at Penn State by a score of 28-20 two weeks ago. The Tigers probably should have also lost last week to Georgia State at Jordan-Hare, but a QB change in the second half propelled them to a 34-24 come from behind victory. That was a misleading final though as the Tigers got two non-offensive TDs in the second half, one a pick six in the final 30 seconds which came right after a 98-yard drive and the go-ahead score. Now they head to a place where they haven’t won in two decades. They’ve dropped 10 straight in Death Valley. With TJ Finley leading the comeback last week, he’s likely to at least split time with Bo Nix this week. Whomever is playing QB for Auburn must deal with a defense that leads the country with 20 sacks. It’s an interesting storyline with Finley having left LSU to play for Auburn. But this could quickly turn into a case of “don’t know what you got until it’s gone.” First year coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with a lot of issues right now as he just fired his WR coach. Throw in what figures to be a rowdy, late Saturday night crowd in Baton Rouge and this just looks like a really tough spot for the road team. Back in the opener, I faded LSU as they were playing at a UCLA team that already had a game under its belt. That turned out to be the correct move. But since then, these Tigers have really turned things around with three straight impressive wins, including at Mississippi State last week. While the final margin ended up being just three points, the Bayou Bengals were up by 18 in the 4Q. They don’t have any issues at QB as Max Johnson’s 15 TD passes are second most in the country. This is a big revenge spot for LSU after losing 48-11 LY in Jordan Hare. They are a much better team in 2021. Lay the points. 8* LSU |
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10-02-21 | Old Dominion +5.5 v. UTEP | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
10* Old Dominion (9:00 ET): ODU may seem like an odd team to go “all in” on this week, but the Monarchs are off a very misleading 35-34 home loss to Buffalo last week and I look for them to bounce back. They outgained the Bulls 433-297 LW in Norfolk, but it didn’t matter as they were behind 35-7 at halftime thanks to two non-offensive scores. They outscored UB 27-0 in the second half but then in the cruelest of fates missed the potential game-tying XP with just 19 seconds left. At least they covered as 13-point underdogs. I’m taking the points this week. It’s not just last week’s misleading final that has led me to ODU this week. How about UTEP being favored? Now the Miners did cover as 9.5-point road chalk in Week 1, but that was against the worst FBS team in the country, New Mexico State (yes, even worse than UConn). UTEP is now 3-1 SU after upsetting New Mexico 20-13 last week here in El Paso. The Miners also pitched a 2H shutout, outscoring the Lobos 17-0 to erase what was a 13-3 halftime deficit. UTEP now has the same number of wins over FBS teams this year (2) as they did the previous FOUR SEASONS COMBINED! This is a matchup of the two teams predicted to finish last in the respective C-USA divisions. ODU does not have a win over FBS team since 2018 as they were one of three teams that elected to skip the 2020 season. This is their best shot at one since a one-point loss to UTSA late in the ‘19 season. The UTEP defense is allowing only a 19% conversion rate on third down, which is a totally unsustainable number, so look for some big plays out of the ODU run game (two backs averaging 6.0 YPC) and the dog to leave with the cash. 10* Old Dominion |
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10-02-21 | Central Florida -16 v. Navy | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
9* Central Florida (3:30 ET): The Golden Knights have had two weeks to stew over a 42-35 loss to Louisville, a game that was decided on a 66-yard “pick-six” in the closing seconds. I look for them to come out and hammer a Navy team that is rather “lost at sea” at this point. The Midshipmen are 0-3 and while they looked somewhat better in last week’s 28-20 loss at Houston, this simply is not the same kind of team we’re used to seeing under HC Ken Niumatalolo. Lay the points with the rested visitor. Central Florida’s season began by hosting Boise State. Though they actually fell behind 21-0 early in that game, they absolutely deserved to come from behind and win 36-31 as they statistically dominated the Broncos in that one. It was a 573-283 edge in total yards and would have been a blowout had it not been for an early 100 yard INT return for TD by Boise. UCF then crushed FCS Bethune-Cookman as you’d expect, putting up 63 points for 1st year HC Gus Malzahn. The loss two weeks ago doesn’t at all dim my view that this is the top challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC this year. Meanwhile, Navy now finds itself towards the bottom of the conference. They could put up only 10 combined points in the first two games and an embarrassing 68 total yards in a 23-3 home loss to Air Force. The Middies did lead at the half LW, but are now facing an opponent that has easily won the two previous matchups. The extra week to prepare for the Navy triple option is huge for the UCF defense. Even with a backup QB making his first career start, the Golden Knights should roll in this one. 9* Central Florida |
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10-02-21 | Eastern Michigan +2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -100 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
9* Eastern Michigan (2:30 ET): Chris Creighton, now in his eighth year at EMU, has done a great job at turning around this once-sorry program. He is now gunning for his second 4-1 SU start in six years. Prior to his arrival in Ypsilanti, the Eagles had started 4-1 just twice in 28 years! Their only loss here in 2021 came to a Wisconsin team that I still think is much better than its record. All three wins have come against bad teams, but at least they’ve been blowouts; all three coming by 14 points or greater. A clear sign of the turnaround engineered here by Creighton is the fact his team has beaten Northern Illinois each of the last two seasons. Prior to those two wins, EMU had lost 11 straight to NIU and 19 of 21. They will now be going for their first three-game win streak in the series since 1958! Conversely, Northern Illinois has had just three losing seasons in 13 years, but two of those were 2019 and 2020. The Huskies didn’t even win a game LY (0-6) and that included a 41-33 loss as six-point road underdog to EMU. The year before saw the Eagles come here to DeKalb and win 45-17 as five-point dogs. Northern Illinois may be off to a 2-2 start this year, but the defense has surrendered 50+ points in both losses and one of the wins (22-21 upset over Ga Tech in the opener) was very misleading. They were outgained in that victory, then were very lucky to earn a push here at home vs. Wyoming the following week as they were down by as many as 26 in that game. After getting crushed 63-10 by Michigan, the Huskies did win last week, but that was against FCS Maine. EMU is 23-8 ATS L31 road games, including 20-6-1 as a dog. 9* Eastern Michigan |
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10-02-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 29 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): So we’ve got Michigan, 4-0 SU and ranked #14 in the country, GETTING points from unranked 1-2 Wisconsin. Now the game is in Madison (more on that later), but this line probably is surprising to some. Not to me. Michigan was outgained 352-275 last week by Rutgers and did next to nothing offensively in the second half. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a very misleading 41-13 loss to Notre Dame last week where they actually OUTGAINED the Irish. Believe it or not, we’re getting a GREAT value here on the Badgers at home. Lay the points. This is precisely the kind of game Jim Harbaugh always seems to lose. He is 0-11 SU as underdog since returning to his alma mater. Since 2015, Michigan is the ONLY team in the FBS not to have a single outright win as a dog. Madison has also been a “house of horrors” for past Wolverines teams. They have not won here since 2001, dropping five in a row including four straight by double digits. Michigan’s inability to run the ball last week in the 2H vs. Rutgers, or even convert a single third down, seems like it will be a major issue here as they face the nation’s top rush defense. Wisconsin has allowed only 69 rushing yards total in three games! Then there’s this tidbit: There have been nine unranked teams favored vs. a top-15 opponent since 2016. Seven of the nine won, including WVU (who I had) over Va Tech two weeks ago. This shapes up to be a CLASSIC anti-public bet. The respective turnover differentials of the two teams, Wisconsin is -7 while Michigan has yet to turn it over even once, is bound to even out. The Badgers had THREE non-offensive TD’s go against them in the 4Q LW at Soldier Field. Look for it to be their defense making the big plays this week as they win at home. 8* Wisconsin |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): Urban Meyer’s Jaguars are 0-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. Not even the longest TD in NFL history, a 109-yard return of a missed FG, could get the Jags inside the number against the Cardinals last week. It’s now 18 straight losses for the franchise, a streak that obviously predates Meyer’s tenure here, and the last six have all been by 10+ points. But I believe the Jags are due to keep ONE close. I see that happening this Thursday night against a Bengals team unaccustomed to the role of favorites. Cincinnati is 2-1 but has not been favored in a single game so far. Even Jacksonville was favored once, back in Week 1. In fact, the Bengals have only been favored three times in the last three seasons and they lost two of the games outright! This season’s two wins have come against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but they were outgained in both games and needed OT to get by the Vikings. The offense has failed to even gain 300 total yards in each of the L2 games. They also lost to the Bears in Week 2. What I’m saying here is that the Bengals should not be trusted as this large of a favorite. Especially on a short week. One would have to go back to the “height” of the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era to find the last time a Bengals team was laying more than seven points at the betting window. The lookahead line was much shorter and I’m just not ready to buy into Cincy yet. Trevor Lawrence just needs to cut down on the interceptions and the Jags will at least keep it close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 62 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Sometime during the course of today, you’ll probably hear that seven of the NFL’s eight primetime games have gone Over the total. I had the one Under, which was Thursday’s Carolina-Houston game. There have been a lot of high-powered offenses featured in these primetime games, which makes sense as that is who the NFL wants on national TV. But when I think “high-powered” I don’t necessarily think of the Jalen Hurts-led Eagles. I’m taking the Under on MNF. The Cowboys have a high-powered offense, but here they’ll be facing an Eagles’ defense that has surrendered a total of 23 points in two games. Philly is allowing just 4.4 yards per play and 283 yards per game. The teams they’ve faced - Atlanta and San Francisco - certainly aren’t terrible offensive teams. Both games also stayed Under. Going back to the middle of last season, the Under is 9-3 in the Eagles’ last 12 games. I think this defense can do a good job of holding Dallas in check tonight. The Cowboys only scored 20 points in last week’s win over the Chargers. This is Dallas’ 1st home game of the season and they’re hoping the recent trend continues of the home team dominating this NFC East rivalry. The home team is 5-0 SU the L5 meetings. I think the Cowboys defense is going to play better than expected tonight. Hurts only completed 12 passes last week and just one to a WR after the 1Q. The Eagles have not scored more than 23 points in any of the previous four meetings with the Cowboys. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys |
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09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite. Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright. The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points. I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses. Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke. The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points. I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams. There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic +4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned at this line as my power ratings say Florida Atlantic should be favored. So there’s no question I’m taking the points here. The line is even more enticing when you consider that the Owls are also on a 6-2 ATS run as underdogs and will be facing a defense that just gave up 628 total yards (and 49 points) last week. After starting 5-1 SU in Willie Taggart’s first season here in Boca Raton, FAU hit a bit of a snag, losing its final three games last year (including the bowl) and to Florida in the 2021 season opener (understandable). But off B2B convincing wins, they look to have turned a corner. Air Force is also 2-1, but just lost outright as nine-point favorites to Utah State last week. It was a 49-45 shootout that saw the Falcons run the ball better than they did in either of the first two games (437 yards) but the defensive “effort” simply wasn’t there. Of the 628 total yards allowed, 448 were through the air. Now they’ve got to deal with FAU QB N’Kosi Perry, who comes in averaging 290.3 YPG with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These teams have met once before (2018) and FAU gained 525 yards in a 33-28 win. All signs point to another big offensive effort, so again - why WOULDN’T you take the points? FAU had seven games either cancelled or postponed because of COVID-19 last year. On the bright side, 30 of the 34 players who started a game last season returned for Taggart, who finally was able to get some Spring practices in. So this is a very experienced group set to hit the road, much more experienced than Air Force. FAU did cover against Florida and would have covered in ‘18 vs. Air Force if not for a blocked punt in the final minute. Seeing as how Air Force twice blew an 11-point lead last week (including in the 4Q), I don’t see how anyone can expect them to win by any real margin. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +5.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
9* South Carolina (7:00 ET): This is yet another matchup on the Saturday card where I feel the wrong team is favored. Kentucky is 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘18) but South Carolina is the more important (in our world) 3-0 ATS. The Gamecocks have lost a game, last week, but that was to a Georgia team that could be the best in the country right now. Two of UK’s wins have been close, including last week’s over FCS UT-Chattanooga, and all of them were in Lexington.The Wildcats only won by five (28-23) last week and didn’t even score enough points to cover the massive 31-point spread. Take the points here. Not much is being expected from South Carolina in Shane Beamer’s first year at the helm. The team was 2-8 SU in 2020. But Beamer (Frank’s son) didn’t inherit a bare cupboard. Opening with confidence-building victories over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina, the latter on the road, were huge even though the Georgia game didn’t work out last week. The Gamecocks still covered vs. Georgia to move to 3-0 ATS on the year. This is maybe Beamer’s best shot at a SEC win this season, so expect a solid performance. Luke Doty, who was originally going to be the team’s first string QB before injuring his foot over the summer, is back and now ready to make his first start. So that’s another boost. While this season is Beamer’s first foray into SEC football as a head coach, his players know the opponent well and desperately want to beat them. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS the L8 years vs. Kentucky and the current senior class would have just one win against them, the last time they hosted back in 2019. That was a 24-7 win and cover as 3.5-point favorites. This Wildcats’ offense has turned the ball over far too much this season (eight times) and the defense is letting opponents convert at 45% on third down. South Carolina isn’t as bad as many in the SEC think and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 9* South Carolina |
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09-25-21 | UCLA -4 v. Stanford | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
9* UCLA (6:00 ET): The bloom is off the Rose (Bowl) so to speak as UCLA lost for the first time last week, a 40-37 shootout with Fresno State. But one upset loss should not cause you to disregard what this team has been doing in Chip Kelly’s third season in Westwood. The Bruins got as high as #13 in rankings, mostly on the strength of their 38-27 upset of LSU. I took them in that game and in the opener when they absolutely crushed Hawaii 44-10. I really like the improvement I’ve seen thus far out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently leads all Pac 12 QB’s with seven touchdown passes. Meanwhile, I also won with Stanford last week as they went to Vanderbilt and won 41-23 as 12.5-point favorites. That was a nice follow-up for them after their shocking upset of Southern Cal the week prior, 42-28 as 17-point dogs (which led to USC firing Clay Helton). The change at QB to Tanner McKee, following a season-opening loss to Kansas State, seems to have been a game-changer. But you should note that the Cardinal were outgained by the Trojans in that upset win and then allowed nearly 400 yards to a not good Vandy team last week. They aren’t playing Vandy again this week. This will be Stanford’s 1st game in Palo Alto since Week 2 of last season. It’s not like they have some great homefield advantage though. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 home games. This is a massive revenge spot for UCLA, who is just 1-12 SU and 2-13 ATS the L15 meetings with the Cardinal. But the one win was the last time they came to Stanford Stadium, 34-16 as a four-point dog. It was a 49-48 loss LY in 2OT as Thompson-Robinson got hurt. If not for a last-second UCLA loss last week, you have to think this line would be a lot higher. In a battle of teams I’m a combined 3-0 ATS with this season, I’ll lay the points. 9* UCLA |
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09-25-21 | Boise State -9 v. Utah State | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
8* Boise State (12:00 ET): It says a lot that a 1-2 team would be favored over a 3-0 team. Especially when the 1-2 team is a nine-point favorite on the road! Boise State’s two losses so far have been by a total of six points and were to UCF and Oklahoma State, two very competent programs. Meanwhile, Utah State has had to rally from a double digit deficit in all three games. Their two wins over FBS teams (Washington State, Air Force) were by a combined seven points and in each instance the Aggies battled back from a double digit 4Q deficit. So they very well could also be 1-2 heading into the Mountain West opener against a team they have struggled with in the past. Actually, to say USU has “struggled” in the past vs. Boise State would be putting it mildly. The Aggies are 1-17 SU/4-14 ATS the previous 18 head to head meetings. The lone SU victory took place here in Logan back in 2015. Utah State has not fared well in conference openers recently, going 0-4-1 ATS. I am shocked that they’ve opened this season 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘78) considering they won just one game a year ago and averaged only 15.5 PPG. They only led for the final 3:54 against Air Force last week and that was after trailing most of the way at Wazzu. Boise State, like Utah State, has a first year coach leading the ship. The Broncos blew a 21-0 lead in the opener vs. UCF and then a 13-point lead vs. Oklahoma State. Really, you could make the case that Boise is the team that “should” be 3-0 while USU “should” be 1-2. It was 42-13 on the blue turf when these teams met last year and eight of the last nine wins in the series have been by double digits. The Utah State defense is very questionable right now as it has given up over 1,000 yards the last two weeks. Air Force gained 437 on the ground alone and even FCS North Dakota went for 442 total. Considering the history of this rivalry - and the fact USU has been down by DD in every game so far - I’ll gladly lay the points. 8* Boise State |
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09-25-21 | Missouri v. Boston College +1.5 | Top | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one. Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener). The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The Hoos are off their first loss of the season, 59-39 to a North Carolina team that is still well regarded despite its season opening loss (at Va Tech). The good news for UVA is that they are NOT playing UNC this week. It’s a matchup with Wake Forest instead. The Demon Deacons may come in undefeated (3-0 SU) and 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings but it’s not easy to win in Charlottesville where the home team is 19-2 SU since the start of the ‘18 season. The Cavaliers have covered five straight as home favorites and I think they’ll make it six in a row Friday night on ESPN2. Lay the points. Wake Forest is just 2-7-1 ATS its L10 road games and this will be their first time leaving Winston-Salem this season. It’s not exactly been an impressive run of opponents they’ve faced to this point, beating William & Mary (FCS), Old Dominion and Florida State. That trio has a combined zero wins over FBS teams in 2021. The Demon Deacons were outgained by 55 YPG in ACC play last season and really benefited from SIX Florida State turnovers last week. It’s never good to lose 59-39 (like Virginia did last week). But at least they got to face an elite offense. WF has yet to face a good offense, let alone one on par with Virginia. The Cavaliers put up 574 yards of total offense last week, which would normally lead me to ask “can they possibly match that?” But in their case, they’ve averaged 558.3 YPG through three weeks and been very consistent in doing so. QB Brennan Armstrong is #2 in the country in passing yards right now. The last time Virginia played at home, they crushed Illinois 42-14 as 10.5-point chalk. This is a big-time revenge game considering they’ve lost four straight times to Wake (1st time ever) and were favored in three of those games. No upset this time. 10* Virginia |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Texans/Panthers (8:20 ET): Houston is going into Thursday night with a backup QB, Davis Mills, who I saw Sunday and wasn’t the least bit impressive. Just the third QB to be drafted out of Stanford in my lifetime, the rookie played the entire 2H vs. Cleveland and completed just 8 of 18 pass attempts for 102 yards and a touchdown. Now, on a short week, he’s going to be facing a much better defense and it’s really difficult to envision a scenario where the Texans put up a lot of points. Carolina is a surprising 2-0 after holding New Orleans to seven points and 128 total yards on Sunday. Remember that the Saints put up 38 points, led by Jameis Winston’s five touchdown passes, in Week 1 vs. Green Bay. So that was a really impressive performance last week by Matt Rhule’s defense. This is the first time the Panthers have ranked #1 in the league in total defense since Week 10 of the 2017 season. Thus far they have given up an average of just 190 YPG and a total of only 21 points. But with Sam Darnold as their starting QB, there’s still questions about this Carolina offense. The Panthers have covered seven straight road games, but are also 0-6 ATS their L6 Thursday games, so something will have to give here. On the same note, the Panthers are 5-0 Under their L5 regular season games while Houston is 4-0 Over its L4. Considering how few points I expect the Texans to score here, Under has to be the call as you’ve got a rookie QB making his 1st career start (on a short week!) against the league’s top rated defense. The Over is 6-0 in NFL primetime games so far this season. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Texans/Panthers |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20. Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em. Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): I know that the Vikings have a banged up defense going into Arizona this week. And that the Cardinals were incredibly impressive in torching the Titans 38-13 in Week 1. But Minnesota is certainly capable of moving the ball as well. They gained over 400 yards in an OT loss to the Bengals in Week 1. Losing that game as three-point favorites, the Vikes have now failed to cover eight straight in the regular season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the league. But I still believe this team is going to be improved in 2021. So take the points as I’m anticipating an outright upset here. How can I still be so confident in the Vikings improving? Well, as I wrote last week, this team was incredibly unlucky in a number of key areas last year. Special teams and lack of success on third/fourth downs were the biggest culprits in addition to a defense slipping to 29th in yards allowed. The kicking game and late down success rate can vary wildly from year to year. The defensive ranking was very uncharacteristic for a Zimmer-coached team. So that stuff is going to improve. The offense will still be good with Kirk Cousins (351 yards LW) and Dalvin Cook running the show. Minnesota has covered five straight times vs. Arizona. The Cardinals won SU as a dog in Week 1, but now they are favorites, a role that they are just 3-9 ATS in the previous two seasons. Not only that, they have a losing SU record (5-7) as chalk. Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The Vikings defense, even banged up, is better than the Titans’. I’ve never been sold on Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury’s in-game decision making. The Vikings were called for a ton of 1H penalties last week, which shouldn’t be repeated. They have only been a dog for two of those eight straight ATS losses and those games came at Tampa and New Orleans. Arizona is not on that level. 10* Minnesota |
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09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers. The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week! Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta |
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09-19-21 | Raiders v. Steelers UNDER 47 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Under Raiders/Steelers (1:00 ET) My Under bet Monday night looked pretty solid for three quarters. There were only 27 points scored between the Ravens and Raiders, a matchup where the oddsmakers’ total was a lofty 50.5. But then came a deluge of 4Q points with the teams doubling the scoring. By the time overtime was needed to settle things, the game had already gone Over. It was the sixth straight regular season game to go Over for Las Vegas, the longest active streak in the league right now. That’s going to be tested this week as they are matched up against one of the better defenses in the league. The Steelers pulled out a surprise 23-16 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The game got off to a rocky start for the Black & Gold when they allowed a long return after the opening kickoff. But they held the Bills to just a field goal on that drive and would allow only one TD the entire game. That was a very good offense they faced, much better than what they’ll see here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s offense remains a bit of a concern with an aging Ben Roethlisberger behind center. They gained only 252 total yards vs. the Bills and the only offensive TD that they scored came with good starting field goal position. RB Josh Jacobs is out for the Raiders this week, so it’s going to be difficult to move the ball on the ground. Not that I would expect them to be all that effective doing so, even with Jacobs on the field. There was major turnover with the LV offensive line this offseason and we all saw what the Steelers’ defensive front was able to do to Bills QB Josh Allen last week. A short week and early start time do the Raiders no favors either. However, they have had the Steelers’ number in recent years, covering six of the last seven meetings with five outright upsets. So let’s go with the Under as neither team will move the ball all that effectively. 8* Under Raiders/Steelers |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few - if any - teams outperformed my Week 1 expectations more than the Eagles did. They went down to Atlanta and thumped the favored Falcons by a score of 32-6. I don’t think anybody saw Philly starting the year 2-0, but we can use that to our advantage here as they host San Francisco in Week 2 and are getting points. My power rankings label this game as a “pick ‘em,” so there’s some clear value right off the bat. Throw in the fact that San Francisco has already endured some key injuries and I’ll definitely be taking the points in this matchup. It was a miracle cover on the Lions last week when I went against the 49ers. Certainly things did not look good for much of the games, especially when SF led 41-17 early in the 4Q. But an incredible series of events led to Detroit sneaking in through “the back door.” The Niners did put up a ton of points & yards (442), but they don’t get to face the lousy Lions defense every week. The Eagles did not allow a single pass play of more than 20 yards against the Falcons. Also concerning for the Niners was their own defense giving up 430 yards in last week’s win. But worst of all was two key players - RB Raheem Mosert and CB Jason Verrett - being lost to season-ending injuries. What a blow to both sides of the ball! HC Kyle Shanahan has to be thinking “not again!” (The 49ers were among the most injured teams LY). Meanwhile, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Eagles in Nick Sirianni’s coaching debut. QB Jalen Hurts had a career-high passer rating. WR Jalen Reagor had a career-high six catches. I also like rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who also had six catches in his first pro game. The defense didn’t allow a point over the last 44 minutes of game time. Might everyone have underrated this Eagles’ team coming into the season? It’s possible and as I wrote last week, San Francisco has not been good as a favorite under Shanahan (now 7-17-2 ATS). 8* Philadelphia |
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09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While no team outperformed my expectations more in Week 1 than Philadelphia did (see elsewhere in 3-pack), no team was a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville. The Jaguars laid a major egg in Urban Meyer’s pro debut, losing 37-21 to who we all expect to be the worst team in the league this season (Houston). The market has quickly turned against Meyer, installing him as a big underdog for his 1st home game. Admittedly, the Jags have lost 16 straight regular season games. But it’s difficult to disregard the fact they were favored on the road last week. I’m taking the points here. Jacksonville may have had the league’s worst record in 2020, but Denver was the only team not to be favored in a single game. Now the Broncos will open as favorites in each of their first three 2021 games, so improvement is clearly expected here. Teddy Bridgewater is the new QB, providing some much needed stability on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense was pretty good LY, so I can see why people are bullish on this team. But expecting them to win B2B road games by a significant margin? Not sure I’d be that optimistic. HC Vic Fangio is just 1-4 ATS off his L5 SU wins. Denver won 27-13 at the Giants in Week 1. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. I don’t think that beating one of the worst teams in the league justifies the number moving so much. The Jacksonville offense did average 5.8 yards per play last week with #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence attempting 51 passes. Three interceptions really doomed Lawrence in his first NFL start, but I think he’s going to take better care of the ball here. Meyer can’t afford to get blown out again and I think his team will keep this one close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-18-21 | Tulane +14.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 21-61 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tulane (8:00 ET): This is Tulane’s second game against a ranked opponent this year. The first, while not a SU win, was certainly a “moral victory” of sorts. It was an ATS victory as well as they stayed within a monster 31-point number against top five Oklahoma. Now we’ve seen many teams stay within generous numbers such as that one. But in this instance, the Green Wave only lost the game by five points (40-35). So what I’m saying here is they will not be intimidated when they pay a visit to Oxford this Saturday night to take on #16 Ole Miss. Last week saw Tulane win 69-20 over FCS Morgan State. Ole Miss’ season got off to a rousing start with a Labor Day beatdown of Louisville, 43-24 as nine-point favorites. That was without HC Lane Kiffin, who was in COVID protocol. If you recall, I went with the Under and despite the high score, that particular bet did cash. As impressive as the Rebels’ offense has been so far (they also hung 54 on Austin Peay last week), a lot of the focus has been on an improved defense. But realize that “improvement” has taken them from 126th in the FBS (which was next to last) in yards allowed last season to 73rd this season. This Ole Miss defense is about to receive its stiffest test yet from a Tulane offense that can match the firepower they’ve got here in Oxford Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is one of the top signal callers in the country, but so too is Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The Green Wave have scored 104 points in two games and what makes the performance against OU all the more impressive is that they had to deal with the game being moved to Norman due to Hurricane Ida. Also make note of Tulane’s special teams. They lead the FBS in net punting and punt return defense. The underdog is going to put up a bunch of points in this game and thus should easily stay within the two touchdown spread. The Green Wave have covered 17 of their last 26 games overall. 8* Tulane |
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09-18-21 | Stanford -12 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
8* Stanford (8:00 ET): Both teams are off shocking upset victories, so the whole “letdown” is really a non-factor in this game. In the case of Stanford, their upset win was more “shocking” in terms of the point spread. They went to the Coliseum as 17-point underdogs last Saturday and beat USC 42-28. An 87-yard TD run by Nathaniel Peat opened the scoring for the Cardinal, who never trailed. The beatdown of the Trojans was so severe that they ended up firing Clay Helton after the game. The biggest takeaway for Stanford was the play of QB Tanner McKee, who threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs in his first start. The most shocking thing about Vanderbilt last week is that they won at all. The Commodores had dropped 11 in a row before winning at Colorado State 24-21 as 6-point dogs. It was a 38-yard FG with 19 seconds left that gave Clark Lea his first career win as head coach. In Lea’s first game, the Commies lost 23-3 to a FCS school (East Tennessee State) as 21-point favorites. Somewhat ironically, it was ETSU that provided Vandy its last win, back in 2019. The Commodores had lost 13 in a row to FBS teams before last week. It should be pointed out that they were outgained by 103 yards against CSU, another team that lost its opener to a FCS opponent. This is the 1st ever meeting between these academic powerhouses. It’s also the first time ever a Pac 12 team has paid a visit to Vanderbilt Stadium. Stanford has never visited a SEC school either. So there’s a real sense of unfamiliarity here. I think the real key is going to be McKee. He showed why he was such a prized recruit in leading the upset of USC. Thus you can pretty much disregard Stanford’s opening week game, a 24-7 loss to Kansas State, as McKee didn’t start that one. But you can’t discount just how bad Vandy is. If the Cardinal can hang 40+ points again, then they should have no difficulty covering the spread here. They led Southern Cal 42-13 last week. Lay the points. 8* Stanford |
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09-18-21 | Colorado State v. Toledo -13.5 | Top | 22-6 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 20 m | Show |
10* Toledo (4:00 ET): There’s a school of thought that says this is a prime letdown spot for Toledo, who is coming off a tough three-point loss at Notre Dame last week. The Rockets may have lost the game in South Bend 32-29, but they easily left with the cash as 16.5-point underdogs. Now they turn around and are laying more than two scores at home. Normally, I might agree with the prevailing wisdom. But in this instance, the Rockets are facing a Colorado State team that is off to as bad a start as anybody in College Football. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt where they’ve missed the spread by a combined 30+ points. I’ll lay the number Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Toledo got its first ever cover as a double digit dog under HC Jason Candle last week (previously 0-6 ATS). They led the Fighting Irish outright with just over a minute to go. They led at halftime as well. This is a team that should be in contention for a MAC Championship as it returns 21 starters from a team that outgained its six conference foes by an average of 131 YPG last season. Before facing Notre Dame, the Rockets blew out Norfolk State 49-10. There was no look ahead there. I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. But the crux of this play centers around just how bad CSU has been so far. Their first game was a 42-23 home loss to FCS South Dakota State. The Rams never led, trailed by as many as 26 and gave up almost 500 yards. Then they lost by three, again at home, to a very bad Vanderbilt team that had previously lost 11 in a row. The Rams have fallen into the bottom 10 of my power ratings and I now project them to win just two games this season. If you can believe it, those same power ratings say this should be a four touchdown spread! I’ll trust the numbers! 10* Toledo |
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09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 45 h 50 m | Show |
9* Baylor (3:30 ET): Kansas suffered a real “bad beat” last Friday at Coastal Carolina. I know because I had the misfortune of playing the Jayhawks. They led outright (9-7) at the end of the first quarter and it was only a six-point game midway through the third. Keep in mind they were getting 26.5 points. As you can surmise, things went badly down the stretch as Coastal Carolina scored the game’s final three touchdowns to make it 49-22. A missed XP early in the game cost KU bettors the cover and to add insult to injury, the team chose to go for it on fourth down (rather than kick a FG) on the final drive. While some may look at a result like that and figure Kansas is “due” this week, I happen to think quite the opposite. After playing hard for three quarters against a Top 25 opponent last week, I wonder if the Jayhawks will come out “flat” for the Big 12 opener. Now the game is at home. But it’s also against Baylor, who has beaten them 11 consecutive times and covered nine straight. I laid a similar number with the Bears last year in Waco and they won easily 47-14. Each of the L9 victories over Kansas have been by a minimum of 19 points. While it may not get as ugly as last year, I’m laying the points again. The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 game in some time. In fact, it was Oct 26, 2019. It’s been 12 straight losses since. The L10 seasons have seen them go 5-84 SU in Big 12 play! They also only beat FCS South Dakota by a field goal in the opener (were slightly outgained). Remember that 1st year HC Lance Leipold was hired late (after the spring) due to the dismissal of Les Miles. Baylor is off its highest yardage and point total since the Art Briles era. Now the victim was an FCS school (Texas Southern), but the Bears will still take it. They are 2-0 SU having also defeated Texas State on the road, 29-20, in the opener. This is more of a fade on Kansas than anything else. 9* Baylor |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 21 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): First impressions are always key and in the case of 2021 Miami football, the first impression wasn’t very good. “The U” was slaughtered by Alabama in their first game, losing 44-13. Not that it was expected to be that close; the Hurricanes were 19.5-point underdogs against the Tide despite being ranked #14 in the country at the time. But still it was a poor effort in front of a National TV audience. Manny Diaz’s team doesn’t get a “second chance at a first impression,” but at least they were able to defeat Appalachian State here in Coral Gables last week, even if it was only by a score of 27-25 (as seven-point chalk). With Miami 0-2 against the spread, Michigan State has the feel of a very “public dog” this weekend. The Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS having gone on the road and upset Northwestern (as 3-point underdogs) in Week 1 and then handled their business against FCS Youngstown State (won 42-14 as 27-point favorites) in Week 2. In both games, Sparty scored a 75-yard TD on its first play from scrimmage. But now they are back on the road and facing their toughest opponent to date. After going 2-5 SU in Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing, Sparty was pegged by some to finish last in the Big 10 East this season. So excuse me if I am still a little skeptical of what they bring to the table. Miami was expected to battle with North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC Coastal. It’s been a rough start to the season in the ACC, but if the ‘Canes end up with only the loss to Alabama on their resume, I think they’ll be smiling down on South Beach. This is a more experienced team compared to Michigan State and they are much stronger at the QB position with D’Eriq King. Miami has moved the ball okay so far, the problem has been scoring only two touchdowns on eight red zone opportunities. That’ll change. Michigan State had been just 2-8 SU/ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons before the opening week upset of what promises to be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this season. The Spartans’ offensive line, which has done its job thus far, is in for a rude awakening against this Miami defensive front. 8* Miami FL |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (12:00 ET): The Mountaineers can ill-afford a second loss this early in the season. They lost the season opener at Maryland 30-24 as 2.5-point chalk due in large part to an inability to run the football (just 48 carries on 21 yards). However, a -4 turnover margin was the biggest culprit in that upset loss which wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Last week was the classic “get-well game” in Morgantown as WVU routed FCS Long Island 66-0, scoring on all of its first eight possessions including seven TDs. Fortunately, the ‘Neers get to stay at home this week for what should be a much tougher game - against #15 Virginia Tech - who is looking for its first 3-0 start in four seasons. I’m laying the points. Home field advantage has proven vital for WVU in the past when facing non-conference opponents. They have not lost here to a non-conference foe since #2 LSU beat them back in 2011. They are 18-0 SU since that time. This will be Virginia Tech’s 1st road game of 2021. They are below .500 (7-8 straight up) away from Blacksburg the previous three seasons. What is interesting about this number is that you’ve got an unranked team laying points to the #15 team in the country. In this situation, it has always been smart to back the unranked chalk. Since 2016, unranked faves are 16-7 SU when facing a Top 20 opponent. I’ve got no problem laying a number this short in Morgantown. As I just said, Va Tech is now ranked 15th in the country, which is something I don’t think many expected to see this season. They opened with a 17-10 upset of North Carolina, a game where they were outgained 354-296. They also barely outgained Middle Tennessee State last week (383-349). My own power ratings aren’t nearly as bullish on the Hokies, placing them 27th in the country right now. They just lost TE James Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. WVU had a solid defense LY for Neal Brown, allowing only 20.5 points and 291 yards per game. This is the most experienced team in Brown’s three years here. With Oklahoma up next on the docket, the Mountaineers REALLY can’t afford a loss this week. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact the program’s last win over Va Tech was in 2003. 8* West Virginia |
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09-18-21 | New Mexico v. Texas A&M -29.5 | Top | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): The 7th ranked Aggies are coming off a very lethargic 10-7 win over unranked Colorado last week. Now that game was in Boulder and Jimbo Fisher did lose his starting QB (Haynes King) to injury. Zach Calzada will get the start this week. The fact A&M is laying more than four scores with a backup QB may not sound all that appealing, but the opponent is New Mexico, who I’d consider possibly one of the ten worst teams in America despite its 2-0 SU start. My power ratings have this line north of -40 (!) so we are actually getting a discount in College Station. I think Calzada is going to do just fine in this game and I look for the Aggies to win real big. Lay the points. New Mexico is 2-0, but those wins were against Houston Baptist (FCS) and New Mexico State (2nd worst FBS team in my rankings). So it’s about as big a step up in class as possible for the Lobos this week. They didn’t even cover against either of the two patsies, winning the first game by only 10 points and second by only nine. Now this is the first 2-0 start in Albuquerque going back to 2005. But this is a team expected to finish at the bottom of the Mountain West this season. They’ve been fortunate to get five turnovers so far. Calzada did lead the GW drive last week, so he’s got that under his belt. He’s also backed up by a defense that surrendered just 54 total yards to Colorado in the second half and made them go 0 for 6 on third downs. New Mexico won’t score many points Saturday, making covering the spread more attainable for the Aggies. Heading into the SEC opener next week vs. Arkansas, look for Fisher to want to make a statement. This team has won 10 consecutive games since losing at Alabama early last season. They’ve won 27 straight over “Group of 5” teams by an average of almost 27 PPG. They’re 4-0 all-time vs. New Mexico with the three wins in College Station coming by an average of 46 PPG. 8* Texas A&M |
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09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 13 m | Show |
10* Maryland (9:00 ET): For the time being, Illinois is still going to be getting some “residual respect” based on their opening week upset of Nebraska. The Fighting Illini closed as a 6.5-point home underdog for that game, but pulled a 30-22 upset thanks in large part to a safety & defensive TD. It was a great start to the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, but the Illini haven't won since. First they dropped a home game to UTSA (where they were a 4-point favorite) and then last week they got hammered 42-14 on the road by Virginia. The defense was torched for 556 yards by the Hoos and the number of points allowed by the Illini has gone up every week. Through three weeks, they are allowing 33.7 PPG. That’s bad news when getting set to face a Maryland team that just hung 62 points on the board last week. Granted that was against a FCS opponent in Howard. But Taulia Tagovailoa (yes, Tua’s younger brother) should have little difficulty carving up this Illini secondary. Tagovailoa has already thrown for 600+ yards in two games with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s completed 76% of his passes thus far and has the fifth highest passer rating among QBs with at least 60 attempts. If that’s not enough to impress you, perhaps the Terrapins upsetting West Virginia 30-24 in Week 1 should. The offense put up nearly 500 yards in that win. They also have RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Illinois will be starting Brandon Peters at QB Friday night. Peters had originally won the job in camp, but suffered an injury in the win over Nebraska. The Illini faithful are going to hang their hat on Peters’ return, but I just don’t see that being enough to stay within the number here. Illinois has won just 2 of the last 15 times they’ve been a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and gone 5-10 ATS. These schools have met only once before and it ended up being a 63-33 win for Maryland three years ago. I still consider the Illini to be the worst team in the Big 10 and my power rankings say this should be a double digit spread. This won’t be another game like the one vs. Nebraska. Lay the points. 10* Maryland |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Giants/Football Team (8:20 ET): So with last week’s 27-13 loss to Denver, the Giants have now gone Under in eight consecutive games (dating back to last season, obviously). But this week’s total is even lower than Week 1 and as you can see, the G-Men and Broncos were very close to going Over the total last Sunday. They would have gone Over had both teams not fumbled inside the red zone. The Giants’ fumble proved especially costly as they were only down 17-7 in the second half when QB Daniel Jones gave the ball away. Jones did throw for 267 yards though and account for two scores. Washington is already on its second starting QB as Taylor Heinicke will replace Ryan Fitzpatrick. This move comes not by choice, but rather because of injury. Fitzpatrick will miss as many as eight weeks due to sustaining a hip injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. I thought, given the circumstances, that Heinicke performed admirably last week. He completed 11 of 15 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Remember that he started last year’s playoff game against Tampa Bay. While the Football Team went down to the (eventual Super Bowl champion) Bucs that day, 31-23, don’t blame Heinicke. He actually threw for 300+ yards in the loss. The Giants’ defense he faces this week isn’t as good as the Bucs .. or the Chargers for that matter. Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, but is expected to play Thursday. Given the Giants’ history against Washington, maybe they don’t even need him. They’ve beaten their old division rival five straight times, the last four all coming with Jones as the starter. Jones has thrown for eight touchdowns in the four wins. Look for him to develop more of a rapport with WR Kenny Golladay, who had four catches for 64 yards last week. Based on them allowing 400+ yards last week against the Chargers, I think it’s fair to say this Washington defense may not be as strong as it was a year ago. These teams are a combined 14-4 their L18 TNF games. 10* Over Giants/Football Team |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:20 ET): Both teams are off deflating Week 1 losses. In the case of Washington, not only did they lose the game 20-16 to the LA Chargers, but they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that could keep him on the shelf for as many as eight weeks. But I think the offense will be in decent hands here with Taylor Heinicke stepping in as the new starter. While this is the first time in his NFL career that Heinicke is going to be a starter for any length of time, remember what he did in last year’s playoff start against Tampa Bay. He threw for 306 yards! Perhaps an even bigger story than Heinicke is that the Football Team is looking to snap a five-game losing streak to the Giants. I think they get their revenge Thursday. Lay the points. As they were for so much of last season, the Giants’ offense looked rather lifeless in a 27-13 loss to Denver in Week 1. They gained only 314 total yards and had just one touchdown before the final play of the game. Now what’s a little misleading there is that there was a drive earlier in the second half where QB Daniel Jones fumbled in the red zone. But still, it wasn’t a great showing from a Giants’ offense that ranked 31st in the league in scoring a year ago. Also concerning was the Giants’ defense surrendered 420 yards to a Broncos’ offense that isn’t exactly regarded as one of the league’s best. They could have given up more points, but the Broncos also had a red zone turnover. I expect Heinicke to be able to move the ball in his first regular season start in three years. I know that the Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as road underdogs, but eventually Washington is going to beat them. It was rather stunning that the Giants swept last year’ season series given they finished 6-10 while Washington won the division. Granted, they won the division with a 7-9 SU record, but they were definitely a better team than the G-Men in 2020. The last three Giants wins over the Football team have all been by fewer than three points or in overtime. Washington actually outgained them in both games last season. Heinicke played the entire second half last week, completing 11 of 15 passes and won’t be “coming in cold” this time. The Giants’ defense gave up a league worst 5.9 yards per rush last week. Also, had Antonio Gibson not fumbled inside his own 5-yard line last week, Washington probably would have won! 8* Washington |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 18 m | Show |
10* Under Ravens/Raiders (8:15 ET): Over the course of training camp, no team was hit harder by injuries than Baltimore. The running back position in particular has suffered some incredible attrition. It began with JK Dobbins to a season-ending knee injury. Then Dobbins’ backup Justice Hill suffered an Achilles injury. With their two top running backs done for the year before a meaningful game had even been played, the Ravens next turned to Gus Edwards. Guess what? He too suffered a serious knee injury in practice Thursday, the same day that CB Marcus Peters also sustained a knee injury! With all these injuries at the RB position, there will be tremendous pressure on QB Lamar Jackson to produce this year. Being that he is a former MVP, it’s not like Jackson is doomed. But Jackson and the offense took a step back in 2020 despite facing a relatively weak set of pass defenses. They dropped down to 27.3 PPG overall and 25.2 on the road. Had it not been for a high success rate on third downs and in the red zone, the offense's numbers probably would have dropped even further. With Ty’Son Edwards and Le’Veon Bell set to be the Ravens’ only available running backs, that dimension of the offense simply will not be as strong as it was in years’ past. Las Vegas will finally get to play in front of fans in Allegiant Stadium (opened last year) Monday night. QB Derek Carr might have a 4-2 SU record on MNF but has posted a 46.0 QBR in those games, which is well below average. One area that I am not really worried about Baltimore is on defense. They allowed only 18.5 PPG last year. The Raiders’ receiving corps is not very good and the running game will probably be worse in 2020 due to the loss of three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. Yes, the Over was 13-3 in LV games last season. But now it’s 2021 and things will be different. 10* Under Ravens/Raiders |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Rams (8:25 ET): The Rams went Under in every home game last season (8-0). But with an offense that should be better and a defense that is likely to be worse (compared to last season, that is), I look for that streak to come to an end in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Matthew Stafford is now the QB1 for the Rams, replacing Jared Goff. This is a clear upgrade in my eyes. Stafford lost RB Cam Akers to an injury in the preseason, but the Rams have averaged 32.2 PPG in four season openers under HC Sean McVay. Even with the Bears’ defense being well regarded, look for the Rams to put up points on SNF. Bears HC Matt Nagy has made the curious decision to go with Andy Dalton as his starting QB for the season opener. Everyone in Chicago wants to see Justin Fields, but they’ll have to wait apparently. Dalton’s career record in primetime may not be good, but I do think the Bears will score more than expected in this game. That may sound strange considering the Rams had the top ranked defense in the league a year ago. But down the stretch last season, Nagy got his offense humming. They scored 30+ points in four straight games, something that no other Bears team had ever done and that was with Mitch Trubisky playing quarterback. This is actually the fourth straight season that these teams will be playing in primetime. The home team has won every time with the Rams holding a 2-1 SU/ATS series edge. All three games have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 34 total points scored. But it’s a new season with new players and I really think it’s going to be different this time around. I don’t think either defense will be as good as last year. The Rams lost four starters on that side of the ball to free agency. The Bears’ secondary is a real weak spot and remember Stafford knows this team well. 10* Over Bears/Rams |
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09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:25 ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Kansas City won that game 22-17, but it was Cleveland leaving with the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. The Browns aren’t quite as large of a dog this time around, despite the fact they will be facing Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes. If you recall, Mahomes left that playoff game with a concussion, forcing Chad Henne into duty. The Chiefs were lucky to hold on that day, but I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate Sunday as Cleveland looks like a serious contender in 2021 and I give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points here. Kansas City won 16 of its 19 games last year, but all anyone remembers is them losing the big one - 31-9 to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. What you may have forgotten is that the Chiefs were a bad bet down the stretch, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. They were extremely fortunate to go 9-0 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. I think the offensive line is a major question mark entering this season as all five starters are new. Cleveland has one of the better defensive lines in the league and is capable of getting to Mahomes the same way the Bucs did in February. The Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 (0-15-1 SU), so that’s added motivation on top of looking to avenge LY’s playoff loss. Odell Beckham Jr is back healthy, so the offense should be more dynamic. This is not your “older brother’s Browns” any longer as this is one of the few games this year where they will be an underdog. They have the best running game in the league. With the most expensive offense in the league (even with Mayfield still on a team-friendly rookie deal), they are going to put up points. Everyone seems to be assuming the Chiefs are going to roll here, but I think that’s flawed thinking. Look for the Browns to surprise here and prove they are the “real deal.” 8* Cleveland |
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09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings are a team that I’m fairly high on for 2021. Most key indicators say they’ll improve upon LY’s disappointing 7-9 SU finish. It was a clear rebuilding year in 2020. The defense, which lost several key contributors due to the salary cap, slipped all the way down to 29th in scoring. That’s very uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer stop unit. The Vikes were also unlucky when it came to special teams and third & fourth down relative to success on early downs. Don’t be surprised to see the defense bounce back this year. The offense should be very good again. A Wild Card is certainly not out of the question for this team. I expect them to open the regular season with a big road win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were 4-11-1 SU last season and finished dead last in the AFC North. They were the only team from their division that didn’t make the playoffs. Losing QB Joe Burrow early in the season didn’t help. But it’s not like there’s a ton of talent on hand for Zac Taylor, who seems to be one of the weaker head coaches in the NFL. Burrow is set to return for Week 1 and has a strong group of receivers. But he only took a few snaps in the preseason and it remains to be seen how he looks against “real competition” after suffering a serious injury. There are eight new starters in Cincinnati as well. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t finish in last place again this season. This could be Taylor’s last season. Minnesota comes into 2021 on the longest ATS losing streak in the league. They failed to cover their final seven games last year. But Zimmer is 14-8 ATS all-time in the regular season as a road favorite. As many of you know, I’m not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL. But this looks like a line we can exploit in Week 1. If I’m right about the Vikings’ improving, then this is a game they should win. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns LY and has a tremendous group of skill position players around him, including RB Dalvin Cook, who should have no problem cutting through a Bengals defense that gave up a league-worst 5.2 YPC “up the gut” last season. The Bengals have won only one of Burrow’s nine starts. 10* Minnesota |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions figure to be one of the more “unpopular” sides in Week 1. Very little is being expected in Dan Campbell’s first season on the job and sure enough the team has the lowest projected win total in the NFC (second lowest overall). But this is a big spread for the opening week of the season, especially considering the Lions are playing at home. I’m well aware that San Francisco should be one of the league’s most improved teams for 2021, but that was built into a line that has since been bet up even higher. The 49ers are just the third team in the last 20 seasons to be a Week 1 road favorite of at least seven points coming off a losing season. The previous two both lost their games outright! Not saying Detroit will get the SU win here, but it is also worth noting that SF has lost outright the last five times it has been a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-16-2 ATS as a favorite as the HC of the 49ers, including 1-7-1 ATS when laying at least a touchdown. So all things considered, this line appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse.” Again, I expect the Niners to be improved and win double digit games. Basically everything - from injuries to turnover margin - went wrong for them in the 2020 season. But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to go out and win by more than one score on the road in Week 1. The Lions have a new QB in Jared Goff. He’s viewed by most as a downgrade from the player he was traded for, Matthew Stafford. But don’t be surprised if Goff, who has started a Super Bowl before, exceeds his relatively low expectations. Campbell’s defense should absolutely be better this year (how can it not be?). I think the underdog is going to play “loose” in the season opener while the Niners may very well be overconfident. Take the points. 8* Detroit |
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09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:00 ET): I understand that Washington just lost to a FCS school (Montana) and now has to travel cross-country to the Big House to face Michigan. But the line move for this matchup seems pretty severe considering UW was a preseason top 20 team and Michigan has become somewhat of a Big 10 “afterthought” under Jim Harbaugh. Should a 47-14 win against Western Michigan inspire this much confidence in the Wolverines? I don’t think so, especially considering they just lost star WR Ronnie Bell (who doubles as the kick returner) to a season-ending injury. Take the points Saturday night in Ann Arbor. The wide receiver position was very thin for Washington heading into the season opener. But still, that’s no excuse for losing to Montana and getting held to their lowest point total at home in 11 years. With the receiver group badly banged up, QB Dylan Morris didn’t help his team by tossing three interceptions. He was also sacked three times, despite playing behind what was thought to be one of the top offensive lines in the country. Bottom line is that 2nd year HC Jimmy Lake called the 13-7 defeat the most “embarrassing loss in the history of the program.” I’d expect the Huskies to come out strong here. With the receiver group still a question mark, Washington needs to commit to the run Saturday night. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Michigan also just lost its best WR. So this could very well turn into a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses. That’s all the more reason to take the points in my eyes. Michigan QB Cade McNamara threw only 11 times for 136 yards last week. This line was close to a pick ‘em on the lookahead line. I just don’t see why the Wolverines should now be laying a touchdown. They are just 2-6 SU their L8 games vs. Power 5 teams and 1-11 ATS its L12 games vs. the Pac 12. 8* Washington |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (4:30 ET): Watching how the games unfolded last Saturday afternoon, I figured Iowa would end up being a pretty popular side in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week at Iowa State. Turns out that I was completely correct. The public sentiment is understandable considering how the Hawkeyes dismantled Indiana 34-6 in Week 1 while ISU struggled to get by FCS Northern Iowa. But the Cyclones, a top ten team in the preseason rankings, should not be cast aside so quickly. They have plenty of reasons to be motivated come Saturday afternoon and I absolutely love them laying a short number. The first reason Iowa State is going to be motivated come 4:30 ET in Ames is that ESPN College Gameday will be on campus for the first ever ranked vs. ranked meeting between these schools in the AP era. Now that also gives Iowa plenty of reason to be motivated here. But it’s the Cyclones looking to avenge five straight losses in this rivalry. The last time they met was 2019 and it was a one-point win for Iowa (18-17) here in Ames. This will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is set to go off as the favorite. They are 15-7 ATS vs. Top 25 opponents under HC Matt Campbell. While Iowa’s Week 1 win was impressive, note that they got TWO pick-sixes in that win. They only outgained Indiana by 0.5 yards per play and did not score an offensive TD over the final 40 minutes of gametime. That game was also played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are now 16-1 SU the L17 times they have been a favorite of six points or less. But here they are underdogs on the road and they are just 1-7 ATS L8 in that situation. Yes, Kirk Ferentz’s team has not been beaten by more than one score since a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin early in the 2018 season. But Iowa State has QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and a defense that has allowed just 16 total points in the second half of its L6 games. 10* Iowa State |
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09-11-21 | Buffalo +14 v. Nebraska | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a great spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2017 and they are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit favorite against a FBS opponent. They’ve lost five of the last seven times they’ve been favored, including the opener against Illinois, a game they were favored to win by more than a TD yet trailed by as many as 21. Scott Frost’s team did bounce back with a 52-7 win last week, but that was against FCS Fordham. That didn’t convince me they should be laying DD to a very live dog this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo has traditionally thrived in this situation. They are on a 9-2-1 ATS run as underdogs, which is the second best cover percentage taking points in the FBS going back to 2017. They are 4-0-1 ATS when getting double digits. Typically one of the best MAC teams (won the East Division last year), the Bulls are expected to take a step back in 2021 due to a late coaching change (Lance Leipold took the Kansas job in April) and a bevy of transfers that followed. But everything looked good last week when they completely overwhelmed FCS Wagner 69-7 in the opener. The offense gained 569 yards in the win. Nebraska just can’t be trusted under Frost as they’ve gone just 13-21 straight up during his tenure and never finished a season above .500. The program’s incredible streak of selling out home games has reached 376, but that’s because donors are now buying and distributing tickets. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games vs Big 10 teams and won’t be intimidated going into Lincoln. There are upcoming road games at Oklahoma and Michigan State that may be on the Nebraska coaching staff’s minds. But they figure to have Buffalo’s full attention Saturday and I’m taking the points. In their L18 games vs. FBS teams, Nebraska has just ONE win by more than seven points. 8* Buffalo |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming v. Northern Illinois +7 | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (1:30 ET): This could be a bit of a “sleepy” start for Wyoming as kickoff takes place at 12:30 local time in DeKalb. I can’t say that the Cowboys were all that impressive last week as they barely snuck by FCS Montana State, winning by a score of 19-16 as 19-point favorites after scoring a touchdown in the final minute. They led for just over five minutes of actual game time and were only +26 in total yards while gaining the same # of first downs as Montana State (17). Now they hit the road where they’ve lost seven of nine the previous two years. Take the points in this one. Northern Illinois definitely turned in one of the more surprising results of the opening weekend, beating Georgia Tech 22-19 as 19-point underdogs. Now, it would be a mistake to overreact to just one game, especially considering the Huskies were outgained in Atlanta by 128 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. But they also led most of the way and allowed just one touchdown through three quarters. It was a gutsy decision by HC Thomas Hammock that decided the game as he decided to go for two and the win after scoring a TD in the final minute. That should give his players plenty of confidence heading into the home opener. Northern Illinois went 0-6 SU last year, but figures to be much improved in 2021 as QB Rocky Lombardi transferred into the program after starting six games for Michigan State last year. Lombardi threw two touchdown passes in the opener and is joined by 19 returning starters. Wyoming won just two games last year and couldn’t score a TD until the 4Q last week vs. a FCS foe. Now they are laying points on the road? Seems questionable. My power rankings have this line as basically a pick ‘em, so I’ll grab the points with a team hungry for its first home win since the 2019 finale. 10* Northern Illinois |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
8* Army (11:30 AM ET): The Black Knights marched right over Georgia State in Week 1, winning 43-10 as 2.5-point underdogs. A 67-4 run to pass ratio wasn’t a problem considering the Cadets jumped out to a quick 21-0, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives. The defense allowed just 177 total yards, most of that coming on Georgia State’s two scoring drives. Now it’s back to West Point for the home opener where they’ll host a Western Kentucky team that could be looking ahead to next week. That’s a problem when facing the triple option. Lay the points in this one. The reason WKU could be looking ahead is because next week they’ll be hosting Indiana. There was no “lookahead” to this game as the Hilltoppers crushed Tennessee Martin last week 59-10. But that’s a FCS team and little can be taken from that game. I know that HC Tyson Helton has been great as an underdog and his team should improve upon LY’s 5-7 mark, but the offense averaged just 19.0 PPG in 2020 and you have to be concerned with the fact the defense just allowed 201 yards rushing on 34 carries last week. Needless to say, the triple option is a lot tougher to stop than the UT Martin ground game. Army has never beaten WKU in three all-time tries. The most recent meeting took place in 2019 and was a 17-8 loss as five-point road favorites in Bowling Green. The upperclassmen still remember that defeat and it’s not like the Black Knights aren’t already motivated to play their home opener on September 11th. A win here and a 4-0 start is a real possibility with home games vs. UConn and Miami OH on deck. I also think the early start time favors the home team in this one. Army is 8-2 ATS its L10 games as a favorite and feels undervalued here. I like that the line has come down a bit. 8* Army |
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09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
8* Kansas (7:30 ET): Yes, the Jayhawks are still reeling from the mess left by the Les Miles’ regime and their 17-14 opening week victory over FCS South Dakota was certainly less than inspiring. The Jackrabbits even outgained them (slightly). But don’t tell that to the fanbase, who stormed the field after a 13-game SU losing skid ended last Friday in Lawrence. It took a late TD pass (with just 1:12 remaining) to get the win, but an outright win this week is not a concern of mine. All we need Lance Leipold’s team to do here is stay within three touchdowns + a field goal. I think they can do that. Take the points Friday night. Now Coastal Carolina is ranked #17 in the country, so this will not be easy for Kansas by any means. The Chanticleers rolled in their opening game (also against a FCS team), winning 52-14 as a 34-point favorite. They rolled up over 600 total yards on The Citadel. But even with this being a nationally televised game in Conway, it has the feel of a “letdown spot” for Coastal. Unlike the last two seasons, they have nothing to prove against Kansas, a P5 team they’ve previously beaten twice on the road. Those two wins in Lawrence were both by 15 points or less and Coastal was also an underdog in both games! It’s a totally different dynamic this time around. Coastal Carolina was Kansas’ only non-conference opponent in 2020. That was obviously a loss, but the previous two years did see the Jayhawks win both non-conf road games on the schedule. Each win - at Central Michigan in ‘18 and at Boston College in ‘19 - was by 24 points! It is crazy to think back and realize that KU was favored over CC last year. After all, they finished the season 0-9 while the Chanticleers had a 10-0 regular season record (lost in the bowl). Now CC goes from the “hunter” to “the hunted” and I wonder how they adjust. They were not favored by more than 17 in any game last season and were actually DOGS in 5 of their 12 games. 8* Kansas |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76 | Top | 24-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:30 ET): Notre Dame is coming off another run to the College Football Playoff. As per usual, they ended up being embarrassed, albeit not as bad as usual. The Fighting Irish’s season ended with a 31-14 loss to Alabama on New Year’s Day, their second straight loss after a 10-0 start. Brian Kelly’s team opens this season ranked in the top 10, but my guess is that the Irish aren’t going to be nearly as good in 2021 as they have a very inexperienced offense and most factors are pointing down. Last season was not normal for any team, but COVID-19 really hit Florida State’s ranks hard and the end result was a very disappointing first year under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles finished just 3-6 and had nearly a month with no games due to COVID. Their only wins over FBS opponents came against North Carolina (by three) and Duke (season finale). But with a full offseason to properly prepare, Norvell should have the ‘Noles back to respectability in 2021. I think tonight’s opener is a classic case of an unranked home team being undervalued against a Top 25 opponent. All eyes will be on the QB position in this game. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is set to start for ND. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line with four new starters though, so expect some growing pains. Florida State has not yet announced who its starting QB will be, but it could be McKenzie Milton, a former UCF standout who suffered a terrible injury back in 2018. If not, it will be Jordan Travis. Either way, I look for FSU to put some points on the board in this matchup. Offense was Norvell’s “bread and butter” at previous stops. The defense can only get better as well. Look for the underdog to surprise here. Take the points. 8* Florida State |
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09-04-21 | Utah State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
8* Washington State (11:00 ET): Utah State had an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season. The Aggies sank to a 1-5 record and fired HC Gary Anderson after an 0-3 start. It wasn't just a bad record though. USU was just plain BAD as all five losses were by 19 points or greater. In the COVID shortened season, oddsmakers struggled to adjust to just how bad the Aggies had become. They also finished 1-5 ATS. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State to try and right the ship in Logan. But I still think the Aggies are pretty bad. Lay the points in this one. Washington State played only four games in 2020 and finished just 1-3. Running back Max Borghi, who was a preseason nominee for the Doak Walker Award (best RB), played in only one game. The Cougars’ three losses were to Oregon, USC and Utah, obviously three of the Pac 12’s better teams. They’ve got 15 returning starters and should be improved. I’ve got them finishing third in the Pac 12 North behind Washington and Oregon. Both coaches are being coy about their starting quarterbacks for the opener. For Wazzu it will be either incumbent Jayden de Laura or Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano. For Utah State, it will be either Andrew Peasley or Logan Bonner. What we do know is that the home team’s offense will be better. It’s all about the defense hopefully being better, especially against the pass. This one being in Pullman definitely helps Wazzu. Utah State is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog the previous two seasons. 8* Washington State |
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09-04-21 | LSU v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
8* UCLA (8:30 ET): The Bruins treated me so well last week that I had to come crawling back to Chip Kelly again. Now LSU is obviously not going to be a pushover like Hawaii was. The Bruins raced out a huge 24-3 lead after the 1Q and never had to look back against the Warriors. RB Zach Charbonnet ran for three touchdowns in the win, which saw Kelly take his foot off the pedal in the second half. But if you recall, LSU’s run defense was quite bad a year ago during a very disappointing 5-5 SU season. The fact that the Bruins so thoroughly dominated Hawaii, despite not getting a great game from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I think is a good sign. Crazy as it may sound, I expect DTR to have a much better game against LSU. I think it’s a big advantage that UCLA has played a game while LSU hasn’t. LSU is breaking in new coordinators for both sides of the ball. The Bruins’ offense averaged 35 PPG in 2020 with DTR at the helm. I wouldn’t be at all worried about last week’s 50% completion rate. In last week’s analysis I talked about how UCLA’s four losses last year came by a total of 15 points. They were certainly better than their WL record. Most starters are back. The defense looks improved, which is all that is needed after the team was somehow 0-4 SU LY in games where the offense scored 34 or more points. Kelly’s offense went three-and-out at the 18th lowest rate in the country last season. We all know it was a down year for LSU, but they were lucky to even go 5-5 SU as they won their final two games despite QB Max Johnson completing only 55% of his passes vs. Ole Miss and Florida. The Tigers were 3-1 SU in one-score games as well. Their practice week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma, forcing them to practice in Houston before heading to the West Coast. I’m taking the points. 8* UCLA |
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09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +1 | Top | 29-9 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): The post-Frank Solich era begins in Athens Saturday night as the Bobcats host Syracuse of the ACC. It’ll be the first ACC school to ever visit Peden Stadium. So this is a big opportunity right out of the gate for new HC Tim Albin, who takes over from Solich after serving as his OC the L16 seasons. It was a very abbreviated final season for Solich as OU played only three games. They won twice and suffered a three-point loss at Central Michigan. Again, expect them to be one of the better MAC teams in 2021, despite the abrupt coaching change. Syracuse is not one of the better ACC teams, obviously. They were 1-10 SU a year ago, the lone win coming against Georgia Tech. Eight of their losses were by double digits. So it immediately caught my eye to see a team like this favored on the road, even if it’s ever so slightly. In my view, oddsmakers are overrating the coaching change at Ohio. I’d have them favored on a neutral field over Syracuse. So getting them at home, where they will be more of an advantage compared to last year, makes the Bobcats a must play. Ohio has been pretty strong at home the last few seasons. In Solich’s first ever home game, they beat Pitt, the program’s last win over an ACC opponent (2005). What a story if Albin replicates the achievement. Both teams plan to play multiple QBs Saturday night, but I like Ohio’s options better. Syracuse had terrible QB play a season ago and it’s the same arms that they are relying on this season. The Orange defense allowed 30+ points eight times in 2020 as they struggled to learn a new alignment. I just don’t think there’s much reason to expect Syracuse to be that improved for Dino Babers. 10* Ohio |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 44-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (2:00 ET): I think this is going to be a really challenging spot for #11 Oregon. This is the Ducks’ first game and they’ve got #4 Ohio State on deck. Fresno State already has a game under its belt, that being a 45-0 shutout of sorry UConn last week. They only have a game with FCS Cal Poly to “worry about” next week. The Bulldogs certainly took no mercy on their hapless opponent last week, outgaining them 538-107 in a game that was 31-0 by halftime. Definitely take the points in this one. Since current HC Kaylen DeBoer came to the program in 2017 (as the offensive coordinator), FSU has been an excellent bet, going 24-9-2 ATS overall. That record includes a 12-4 ATS mark as an underdog. Certainly facing a “big name” Pac 12 school will have the Bulldogs motivated. In particular QB Jake Haener, who transferred out of Washington to be here. Haener threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the opener while completing 20 of 26 attempts. He didn’t even finish the third quarter. RB Ronnie Rivers now has the most rushing TDs in the history of the program with 45. Mario Cristobal is only 5-11-1 ATS all-time as a favorite of two touchdowns or greater. That includes a 3-8-1 ATS mark with Oregon. This is an early start time at Autzen, which could in turn lead to a bit of a “sleepy start” for the home team. I think it’s fair to say that the atmosphere in Eugene is a lot different at 11 AM local time as opposed to in primetime. No matter the score in the 4Q, I don’t think the Ducks are going to want to “expose the whole playbook” with Ohio State on deck. A classic lookahead spot for the favorite. 8* Fresno State |
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09-03-21 | Duke v. Charlotte +6.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:00 ET): These teams met last season and Duke delivered a 53-19 beatdown. But that was in Durham and in no way indicative of how the Blue Devils’ season went. David Cutcliffe’s team finished 2020 at 2-9 SU. Their only win besides the Halloween night thumping of Charlotte came three weeks earlier at Syracuse. They ended the season on 0-4 SU/ATS run where they gave up an average of 54 points per game (not a misprint!) and lost every time by no fewer than three touchdowns. Cutcliffe, who has given up playcalling duties, really has his work cut out with this Duke team entering 2021. Charlotte also won just two games last season. But they only played six times. Following the loss to Duke, the 49ers would get only one more game in - a 37-19 loss to Western Kentucky. So neither of these two teams has won since last Halloween. This will be the first time in school history that Charlotte has ever hosted a team from a Power 5 conference. So it’s a big deal. Last year’s matchup got out of hand quickly (Charlotte trailed 24-0 early in the 2Q), but again that was an outlier performance by Duke. An interesting note is that Charlotte actually had more first downs than Duke, 22-16! This is an experienced 49ers team that Duke will be facing this year. It starts at the QB position with redshirt senior Chris Reynolds, who has started 24 of the team’s last 25 games and thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career. The Duke secondary was like a sieve last season and they lost five of the top tacklers. Mark my words that the Blue Devils are going to struggle to keep Charlotte from scoring in this game and that’s a problem when you’re laying points on the road. Keep an eye on 49ers WR Victor Tucker, who might be the best player on the field Friday night. Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS the L3 times it’s been a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* Charlotte |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee OVER 60.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time. Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns. Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota UNDER 63 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet. Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening. This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA -17.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 96 h 49 m | Show |
10* UCLA (3:30 ET): It is clearly a make or break year for Chip Kelly at UCLA. He’s gone 10-21 SU in his first three years here (3-9, 4-8 and 3-4). Typically it’s year three when a coach truly puts his imprint on a program. But 2020 clearly was a season like none other before it. It was also a season in which the Bruins’ four losses came by a total of 15 points. Somehow they were 0-4 SU in games where they scored 35 or more points. That should never happen. But the good news is that - with most of last year’s starters returning and factors pointing up - this should be the season Kelly’s team is a contender in the Pac 12 South. Hawaii looks to be pretty bad in 2021. They were 5-4 SU in 2020, but outscored. That’s the opposite of UCLA, who had a positive point differential last season despite the losing overall record. The Warriors’ season ended with a New Mexico Bowl victory over Houston. But that was one of only four times they had to leave the Island last year. Two of the four were losses by 24 points. Not only does QB Chevan Cordeiro lose three of his top receivers from last year, but HC Todd Graham had to replace two offensive coaches including the coordinator. UCLA has 10 starters back on defense including the top three tacklers. So look for that unit to be improved this season. The offense did improve last year, scoring 34+ points in five of seven games and committing three-and-outs at the 18th lowest rate in the country. Like the defense, most of LY’s starters are back. This is a very early start time for the Hawaii players and the last time the Warriors visited the Rose Bowl, the end result was a 33-point defeat. The Hawaii run defense was a major problem LY, giving up 212 YPG. 10* UCLA |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 288 h 31 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:30 ET): I opened my analysis of the AFC Championship Game by pointing to the fact that there was a much different “feeling” surrounding the Chiefs going into the penultimate game of the season. While last year’s Super Bowl winning team closed on a 9-0 ATS run, this year’s edition was just 1-8 ATS its L9 going into last week. And even that one cover came with a bit of an “asterisk.” Many (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Nevertheless, I still laid the points with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, so I was quite happy to see them dispose of the Bills 38-24. But I think Super Bowl LV is going to be a different story. There’s only so many times that a team can continually dig itself out of early holes. If you’re wondering how I can go from taking to fading the Chiefs, the answer is pretty simple. They’re facing a better team in the Super Bowl than they did in the AFC Championship. In fact, I believe the better team is getting points in Super Bowl LV. At least that’s what the power ratings say. I’m certainly not going to pass up this opportunity to take the points with a team that’s now 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including the B2B upsets of New Orleans and Green Bay to get here. This will be just the second time Tom Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The first was all the way back in 2002, his 1st SB appearance, when the Patriots upset the Rams as 14-point underdogs. Brady is now an incredible 41-17-1 ATS all-time as a dog in his career. This is a rematch from the regular season, a game that was won by the Chiefs 27-24. They didn’t cover though (were -5). It just so happens that was the rare occasion where KC got off to a hot start (led 17-0 after 1Q). But they let the Bucs in through the back door. Getting off to good starts has NOT happened for the Chiefs in the playoffs though as they’ve fallen behind by nine points or more in four of their last five postseason contests. Do not forget this game is being played in Tampa Bay’s home stadium. That’s not as big of an edge as it would be in any other year, but it’s still an edge. Another key is that Chiefs could be without BOTH starting offensive tackles. We just saw the Bucs tremendous defensive front (#1 in the league against the run) dominate a banged up Packers offensive line in the NFC Championship Game. I think it must be pointed out that the loss to the Chiefs came right before Tampa Bay’s (very) late season bye. Since then, they are 7-0 SU and averaging 34.2 PPG. They are a better team now than when they faced the Chiefs the 1st time. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Bucs (6:30 ET): So when these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 961 yards and all nine scoring drives went for at least 64 yards. Both offenses averaged 7.5 yards per play. Yet they finished with only 51 total points. That’s still a lot, but wasn’t enough to go Over a total of 59.0. While the stakes are much higher the second time around, the total is lower. But it’s still the second highest O/U line in Super Bowl history. The only one larger was four years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons. That game would have stayed Under had it not been for the Pats rallying from a 28-3 deficit to force overtime. Since ‘95, no SB w/ an OU line of 54.0 or higher has gone Over in regulation (5-0 Under). This game is being played in the Buccaneers’ home stadium. That doesn’t mean as much as it would in a “normal” year, but it’s worth noting the Bucs averaged fewer points per game at home than they did on the road this season. Those eight games averaged 52.4 PPG. Chiefs’ road games averaged more total points than their home games (54.6 PPG), but that’s still just below the O/U line here. Going back to the regular season matchup (which was here in Tampa), the Chiefs scored 17 first quarter points and Tyreke Hill had 13 catches for 269 yards. None of that will happen again. The Bucs are #1 in the league against the run and their defense really dominated the Packers up front in the NFC Championship Game. Like Green Bay, Kansas City is dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Obviously, everyone is going to expect a shootout on Sunday and will want to bet the Over, but like last year I’m going Under. The last two Super Bowls have gone Under. The Under is 22-9 since 2015 in Tom Brady starts where the total was 50+. 8* Under Chiefs/Bucs |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games! Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
9* Under Bucs/Packers (3:05 ET): Tampa Bay was able to eradicate some regular season “demons” last week, upsetting New Orleans 30-20 in the Divisional Round. I had the Under, which won by a far narrower margin (total closed at 53), and am now 2-0 in Bucs’ games this postseason. In the Wild Card Round, I faded them, laying a big number at Washington. Now they go from facing a team they lost to twice in the regular season to one that they defeated (albeit at home). Back on October 18th, the Bucs were my 10* Game of the Month as they crushed the Packers 38-10 as a 2.5-point home dog. You wouldn’t have known Green Bay was facing the best defense in the league last week as they rolled up 32 points in a two-touchdown victory over the Rams. Aaron Rodgers directed the Packers offense to 484 total yards, although the game was close (25-18) until he hit Allen Lazard with a 58-yard TD pass with just under seven minutes left. The Packers have now won seven in a row, scoring 30 or more points in all but one of those victories. Unlike the game in Tampa back in Week 6, they absolutely deserve to be favored here. I was tempted to go with the Bucs this week, but considering they were underdogs at home for the first meeting, it could be argued that the value is on the other side of this NFC Championship Game matchup. Plus, as happy as I was to cash my 10* Game of the Month in October, that game was dramatically impacted by turnovers as the Bucs had a rare “pick-six” off Rodgers and a second INT was returned to the GB 2-yard line, setting up another easy TD. You could say the same about turnovers impacting last week’s win over the Saints where they forced FOUR, three of which were almost immediately converted into touchdowns as they started in “plus territory”. (They kneeled after the 4th, a drive which also started in Saints territory). But at the same time, it can’t be discounted that this Bucs’ defense (which is #1 in the league vs. the run) held GB to a season-low 201 total yards in that first meeting. It’s expected to be cold with a 50% chance of snow Sunday afternoon in Lambeau. 9* Under Bucs/Packers |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Bucs/Saints (6:40 ET): The two regular season meetings between these teams produced 57 and 41 points. New Orleans won both handily, 34-23 and 38-3. The amount of scoring that took place in the first meeting (which was all the way back in Week 1) was a bit misleading when you consider the Saints got a defensive TD (pick-six) and two other scoring drives began inside the 35-yard line following TB turnovers.That’s why I took the Under in the rematch on November 8th, which cashed easily. The O/U line isn’t much different here and while the final score may not end up as lopsided, the number of total points will be similar. Going into that second meeting, New Orleans had a 7-0 Over record on the season. Since then, they’ve gone Under in 7 of 10 games including last week’s 21-9 Wild Card win against Chicago. The only TD the Saints allowed came on the final play of the game, a “garbage time” score if there ever was one. They held the Bears to just 239 total yards. While the Bucs’ offense is clearly superior to that of the Bears, note that two of the Bucs’ three lowest yardage games this season came against the Saints. They averaged just 252 YPG in the two losses. As I mentioned in last week’s analysis, New Orleans is top five in total and scoring defense this year. But Tampa Bay has a good defense too. In fact, they are #1 in the league at stopping the run, which comes in handy when facing Alvin Kamara. While they won easily, it’s not like the Saints’ offense was moving up and down the field last week. They’ve been held below 300 total yards four different times this season and three of those were with Drew Brees starting under center. One of them was in Week 1. The Saints’ last four playoff games have all gone Under. These teams are obviously familiar with one another and I expect a relatively low-scoring third meeting. 8* Under Bucs/Saints |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Browns/Chiefs (3:05 ET): The expectation here is for this to be a very high-scoring game. Just look at the total. It’s not only the highest of the weekend, but has a good shot to close as the highest total for ANY Divisional Round matchup in history! Even for the Chiefs, the current number would be the highest for any game this season. This is all due to Cleveland’s shocking performance last week where they upset the Steelers 48-37 in Pittsburgh. But as I’ll get into, there were plenty of “extenuating circumstances” that led to that high score. I believe this number is simply too high and I’m going Under. Last Sunday was quite a special night in Cleveland. The Browns won their first playoff game in more than a quarter century and did so in improbable fashion. They were up 28-0 at the end of the first quarter! How could that happen? Well, simply put, the Steelers imploded. On the very first play from scrimmage they snapped the ball into the end zone, allowing the Browns to recover and score a TD. After that, Ben Roethlisberger threw two 1Q interceptions, setting the Browns up in “plus-territory.” One drive began on the Steelers’ 15-yard line. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is not going to play as poorly as Big Ben did. Also, the Chiefs’ defense is pretty good! They allow just 22.3 PPG at home. While no one expects the Browns’ offense to duplicate LW’s performance, there is (rightly) some concern about the defense’s ability to stop Mahomes. Fortunately, they will be getting back two defensive backs - Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson - from the COVID list. The fact the Browns gave up so many yards passing last week is a bit misleading as Pittsburgh had no choice but to pass on almost every down. The Chiefs have not scored more than 33 points in any of their previous six games and the last time Mahomes was on the field, they scored just 17 against a not good Falcons defense. The Under isn’t just 15-7 the Browns L22 after scoring 30+ their previous game, it’s also 21-10 if they gave up 30+ in their previous game. 10* Under Browns/Chiefs |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams square off Saturday night in the Divisional Round. I’m betting big on the Ravens. While Buffalo is on a seven-game win streak, Baltimore has won six in a row and covered seven straight. The Bills just had their own eight-game ATS win snapped last week. Though their fans could hardly care as the franchise FINALLY got the proverbial “monkey off its back” by winning in the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But they were a bit lucky to win considering the Colts outgained them 472-397. In fact, all nine Indianapolis drives ended in Bills’ territory! The Bills’ defense forced only two punts the entire game and both were in the 1Q! Baltimore had to overcome an early 1Q deficit to win its Wild Card Game, which was sweet revenge after what happened against Tennessee in LY’s playoffs. But I thought the Ravens were pretty clearly the better team last week. They outgained the Titans nearly 2:1 (401-209). With the Bills’ defense struggling for much of last week, I expect the Ravens offense to put up a big number here. Their strength is running the ball and that happens to the weakness of the Bills’ defense which has allowed 150+ rush yards five times this season. Lamar Jackson and company have had no issues scoring down the stretch, averaging 34.3 PPG during the six-game win streak. The Ravens ended up leading the league in scoring differential in the regular season. So this will likely come down to Baltimore’s defense being able to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. I think they’re up for the challenge. Allen’s two top receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are still battling injuries and RB Moss is out, leaving Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that’s a benefit to the team that likes to run more (which is Baltimore). I do NOT think the Ravens should be underdogs here, but I’ll gladly take the points as they are 9-2 ATS their L11 as dogs, including seven outright wins. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS on the road. 10* Baltimore |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:35 ET): A majority of the headlines referred to the Rams’ Wild Card victory over the Seahawks as “shocking.” But it was no shock to me. I backed them. While it was a little surprising to see them score 30 points with Jared Goff being called into emergency duty, I specifically cited the Rams’ defense as a reason they might pull the upset. I don’t think people realize how good this team, specifically its defense, really is. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the league during the regular season and their defense was #1 in scoring, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Going into the Divisional Round, we know Goff will be starting and I’ll take the Rams plus the points again. Green Bay defied regression to go 13-3 SU for the second straight regular season. Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP this year. To be clear, when I talk about “defying regression,” I’m speaking of the fact the Pack went an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU in one-score games a year ago. That usually guarantees a fewer # of total wins the following season, but it didn’t here and that’s largely because of the play of Rodgers. Green Bay had a much better YTD point differential in 2020 (+140) than they did in ‘19 (+63). They come into the playoffs on a real roll, winners of six straight games, all by seven points or more. But only one of those victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. I’m not going to put much stock in Goff’s 0-2 record when gametime temperature is 32 degrees or lower as that is a very small sample-size. Like they have much of the season, it’ll be the defense carrying the Rams anyway. Aaron Donald is going to play, which is key. So is the fact Jalen Ramsey will be charged with covering Rodgers’ favorite target Davante Adams. The Rams’ defense has allowed more than 24 points in just three games this season. This team is 5-2 ATS and STRAIGHT UP as an underdog and is a perfect 6-0 ATS/SU coming off a division game. Even with the bye, I don’t think this spread should be higher than five points. Take the points. 8* LA Rams |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 76 | Top | 24-52 | Push | 0 | 201 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Bears/Saints (4:40 ET): For four consecutive weeks, Chicago put up 30+ points (something no Bears team had done since the 1960’s) with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. But then came last week’s disappointing effort vs. the Packers where they were held to just 16. Thanks to Arizona also losing, the Bears were able to “back in” to the playoffs as the 7-seed in the NFC, but I don’t think I’m exaggerating here when I call this the weakest team in the field (yes, even weaker than Washington). They face a VERY tall order in the Wild Card Round, having to travel to the Mercedes Benz Superdome to face the Saints. When looking at that run of 30+ point games, it’s very important to consider just WHO the Bears faced: Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. None of those are playoff teams and the defenses were among the worst in the league. Facing a good defense for the 1st time in a month, the Bears got held to not just 16 points, but only 4.8 yards per play. The Saints defense that Trubisky and company will face this week is one of the league’s best as it ranks top five in both scoring and yards allowed. Chicago is 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, averaging just 16 PPG. So last week, sadly, was nothing new. The Saints offense is expected to get both RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back, which sounds exciting. But the Bears’ run defense is tops in the league in terms of success rate and Kamara may not be operating at full strength after missing a week due to quarantine. While New Orleans is still thought of as this “offensive machine,” they operate at a very slow pace (29th in time between plays) and I think they know it’s not going to take many points to win here. Their L3 playoff games have all stayed Under. 10* Under Bears/Saints |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round. This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington |
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01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup. San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks. This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco |
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01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5). We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot. Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either. A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991. Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl. You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State |
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01-01-21 | Auburn +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day. N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards! Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia UNDER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia |
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12-31-20 | Ball State +9 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 208 h 5 m | Show |
10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here. San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role. Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 71.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -9 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 118 h 26 m | Show |
10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Over Bills/Patriots (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. Here I am targeting the latter streak as the Patriots should be better offensively now that they’ve returned home (where they haven’t played in a month). The last two games saw them run into two of the better defenses in the league (Rams, Dolphins), both on the road, and they had little to no success. Buffalo is giving up 25.4 PPG on the road this season. You’ll have to check out my 10* Game of the Week (play on the side) for a bunch of historical info on this spread. Bottom line: it’s not often that Buffalo is favored against New England, though this is the 2nd time this year it has happened. It’s even more rare to find them favored in Foxboro as they go for the 1st season sweep of the Patriots this century. New England hasn’t been a home dog of this magnitude since Tom Brady was a rookie. They haven’t been a division dog of 7 or more since that same 2001 season. They haven’t gotten this many points from any Buffalo team since Jim Kelly was playing QB in 1993. I that first meeting this season, Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone as the Patriots were looking to tie/go ahead. They lost 24-21 as a 4-point dog. The total for that game was only 41, so it did go Over. You may find it curious that the total is higher for the rematch as NE has gone Under in six straight. But this time around the Patriots defense won’t have former Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who is out for the year with a knee injury. The Buffalo offense also seems to be better now than it was back on Nov 1, the date of the first meeting. They’ve scored at least 26 points in every game since. 8* Over Bills/Patriots |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Titans/Packers (8:20 ET): Two of the NFL’s more prolific offensive teams meet Sunday night at Lambeau Field where snow and wind are expected to be factors. Thus, I’m leaning towards this being a lower scoring game than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Yes, we all know what an “Over machine” Tennessee has been since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (19-4-1 O/U record!). But Green Bay has gone Under each of the last three weeks and this is a big number for such a high profile game. Given the weather conditions, expect to see a lot of Derrick Henry when the Titans have the ball. Of course, that figured to be the case anyway. But with the weather potentially being such a factor, the Titans prolific passing attack may be kept in check. The Packers’ defense ability to stop the run has been an issue for a while now, but they’ve gotten better as the season has worn on. I’m sure that slowing down Henry has been the main focus of practice all week long. The L3 games have seen GB allow an average of just 18.7 points and 311.7 yards. Over the L7 games, only one opponent (Colts) has scored more than 25 vs. the Pack. Tennessee has scored 30+ points in five straight games as they look to go to the playoffs for a second straight season. However, the L2 weeks have seen them benefit from facing weak opponents (Detroit, Jacksonville). Expect more resistance from a Packers team that can clinch home field advantage in the NFC with a win tonight. The Titans’ Over percentage is second highest in the league (behind only Las Vegas - ugh), but I’m willing to buck that trend here given the gravity of the game and likely weather conditions. 8* Under Titans/Packers |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
10* Over Rams/Seahawks (4:25 ET): These teams met back in Week 10 with the Rams emerging victorious by a score of 23-16. They were 3.5-point favorites at home. The stakes are much higher for this rematch as Seattle, not the Rams, can wrap up the NFC West with a win. LA is off a very embarrassing loss last week as they became the first team to fall to the Jets in 2020, doing so 23-20 as a 17-point home favorite. Obviously, they should come eager to atone for such an unthinkable result. But beating Russell Wilson in Seattle isn’t easy as they scored 40 points the last time they played here - against the Jets! That this game takes place up in the Pacific Northwest should have a profound effect on your analysis of the total. The Rams are 7-0 Under at home this season and they are the only team in the league yet to have a single home game go Over. But they are 4-3 Over on the road as the offense averages 28.1 PPG, up a full TD from what they average at home. Similarly, the defensive numbers go up on the road. The Rams allow just 14.4 PPG at home, but 24.0 on the road, a big-time increase. So while Rams’ home games average just 35.5 PPG, their road games are at 52.1. Again that’s a severe difference. Seattle has had two of its three lowest-scoring games in the past three weeks. Ironically, both games were against NFC East teams. But in between they did have the 40-point game vs. the Jets here at home. They are averaging 31.0 PPG at home for the year. Going into the 1st meeting with the Rams, the Seahawks had gone Over in six of their first eight games. Now they’ve gone Under in six straight. I say it's time for that streak to end. The O/U line for the first meeting closed at 53.5, a full TD higher than what it is here! Over the L3 weeks, the Seahawks defense has gotten to face three bottom five offenses. Not here. 10* Over Rams/Seahawks |
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12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
9* Under Dolphins/Raiders (8:15 ET): These teams are seemingly headed in opposite directions. I played Miami last week as they beat the Patriots 22-12, their 8th SU win in the L10 games (they’ve also gone 9-1 ATS in that stretch). Las Vegas has lost four of five, the only win coming against the then-winless Jets on a last second “Hail Mary.” I went against the Raiders last Thursday when they fell in overtime to the Chargers. Normally, I might stick with the Dolphins’ bandwagon, but this will be LV’s third straight game at home and I don’t like how the line “jumped the fence” early in the week. It’s the total that’s catching my eye now. What’s interesting about playing this total is that each of the Raiders’ last seven games have seen at least 49 total points scored and five of those seven have seen at least 57 total points scored. But Miami has seen 33 or LESS total points scored in four of its last five games (exception was vs. KC). So something will have to give. Considering Marcus Mariota could start for Las Vegas, I think this will be more of a “Miami-type game.” Even if Derek Carr is able to play, you’d have to be concerned about his injured groin facing one of the best defenses in the league. Over their last 10 games, Miami has allowed more than 21 points to only two opponents - the Chiefs and Cardinals. This Dolphins’ defense has hit the “trifecta,” ranking 1st in the league in scoring (18.4 PPG allowed), takeaways (26) & 3rd down percentage (32.5%). Not only do the Raiders have an injured starting QB, but RB Josh Jacobs has averaged just 3.0 YPC since Week 10. But giving the home team a sliver of hope is the fact Miami has scored 22 points or less in four of its last five games. Tua Tagovailoa is still a rookie QB playing on the road. So look for this game to snap a 6-0 Over run in head to head meetings between these teams. 9* Under Dolphins/Raiders |
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12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here. Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record. Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes. This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern |
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12-22-20 | Tulane -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points! Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Steelers/Bengals (8:15 ET): Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite Monday night despite B2B losses, both of which came in primetime games. But let’s not be too quick to forget this team was 11-0 SU before having to endure three professional football games in a 12-day span. That, more than anything else, is what “caught up to them” and caused them to drop two in a row. Tonight has all the makings of a “get well” game for the Black & Gold, especially on the offensive side of the ball as the Bengals defense they face tonight just allowed a 122.6 passer rating to backup QB Andy Dalton. Dallas, a bad team, scored 30 in that game. Normally, I’d be “all over” a double digit dog in primetime, but the Bengals seem a bit “untouchable” right now, especially with Ryan Finley now set to start at QB. Finley is the third different starting QB for the Bengals in the last five games. Joe Burrow’s injury effectively ended this team’s season as it’s been all downhill ever since. Cincinnati has lost five in a row, a streak that started against the Steelers. Burrow was hurt the following week and the Bengals have managed only three offensive touchdowns since. The defense had been okay, but then came the aforementioned effort last week vs. Dallas, a sign this game has the potential to get pretty ugly. This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see the entire NFL season. When the teams met five weeks ago, the O/U line was 45 and the game went Over as Pittsburgh won 36-10. A similar final score could be on tap tonight. The Bengals’ offense actually did move the ball a bit last week, only to fumble it away on each of the opening three possessions. But tonight is all about the Steelers’ offense getting back on track. As we saw in the 1st meeting, they could possibly come close to sending this one Over themselves. Cincy will give enough help to get it past the “finish line” as both teams end 4-game Under streaks. The Over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ L5 home games vs. a team w/ a winning road record. 10* Over Steelers/Bengals |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU). Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite. In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal. For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable. A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta |