|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-14-19||Liberty +13 v. Aces||Top||65-100||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can.
10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY
|05-26-19||Sparks v. Aces -130||Top||70-83||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
The set-up: Derek Fisher is the new head coach of the LA Sparks. LA though has to start the season without star Candace Parker, who is on the IL for the next five weeks. Nneka Ogwumike is an MVP and she’s going to be leaned upon heavily here. The Aces though have title hopes in their eyes this season after acquiring Liz Cambage in the off-season. Las Vegas is loaded with talent and Cambage won’t be playing here, but I still think that talented guards Kayla McBride, Kelsey Plum and rookie Jackie Young will have more than enough to carry the load.
The pick: With a packed house, I think this young Aces team takes it to LA in a statement situation. Play the home side on the money-line.
Las Vegas Aces (Moneyline)
|08-14-18||Sky v. Lynx -10||Top||91-88||Loss||-110||23 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Lynx are 2-1. Minnesota will look to take the season series here against the lowly Sky and get back on track after an 81-72 home loss to Seattle on Sunday. Chicago is simply playing out the season, as it’ll miss the playoffs.
The teams: Minnesota clinched a spot in the post-season after back-to-back road wins and it wasn’t able to carry that momentum over in the loss to the Storm. This would be considered its only “cream puff” left to end the season though, with a tough road match up in Connecticut on Friday, followed by a regular-season ending match-up at home against Washington. I think Maya Moore and company come to play today as they take into account their upcoming tougher schedule.
The Sky have lost three of their last four. They put up a valiant fight in Connecticut on Sunday, but still came away with the 82-75 setback. Chicago faces another bottom feeder in Indiana in a home and home series over the weekend, so the squad gets caught “looking ahead” here as well in my opinion.
The pick: I like Minnesota to come in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points.
|08-12-18||Storm v. Lynx -1||Top||81-72||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have already played twice this year and each has won on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I think this trend carries over here.
The teams: Seattle comes in off a 100-77 setback at Washington on Thursday and I predict another “letdown” here as well. The Storm will close out the year with two “cream puffs” at home against the Liberty and Wings, so I’m expecting the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Storm are led by Brenna Stewart with 22.2 points and 8.1 boards per game while Sue Bird added 7.3 assister per night.
Minnesota comes in off back-to-back victories and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.4 PPG, while Sylvia Fowles adds 11.9 boards.
The pick: Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the Storm get caught looking ahead here to their final two games of the season in friendly confines. Play on Minnesota.
|08-11-18||Fever v. Aces -9.5||Top||74-92||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the “revenge angle” into account when doing my handicapping, I don’t think it’s going to apply here.
The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with “heavy legs” as well.
Las Vegas has lost five straight and it’ll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don’t play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points.
|08-10-18||Sun v. Sky +10||Top||86-97||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Sky after Connecticut hammered them 110-72 on their own floor earlier in the season. It’s also the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. While I’m not predicting an outright victory, I do think that the Sun will “look past” their lowly opponent today and I like the Sky to sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done.
The teams: The Sun are primed for a letdown after clinching a playoff spot with a victory over the Wings on Wednesday. It was Connecticut’s fifth straight victory. The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 14.4 points, while Jasmine Thomas added 4.6 assists.
The Sky won’t be playing in the post-season, but they won’t be going down without a fight here after back-to-back losses. Chicago is led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 8.4 assists.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Connecticut is already just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a three-games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS In its last four in trying to revenge an “in season” setback to an opponent. Grab the points, play on the Sky.
|08-09-18||Lynx -3 v. Aces||Top||89-73||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have played twice this season already and each has won on the others floor. I think that trend continues here, as I like Minnesota to at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments.
The teams: Minnesota broke a three-game slide with a victory at Chicago on Tuesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.8 points per game, with Danielle Robinson adding 3.4 assists. Sylvia Fowles leads the nightly charge on the glass with 11.6 boards.
Las Vegas has lost three straight, most recently getting hammered 109-100 at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.4 points and 8.3 boards per game, while Kelsey Plum adds 3.9 assists.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its last contest, while Las Vegas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU losses. Play on the Lynx
|08-08-18||Sparks v. Liberty +8.5||Top||82-81||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year and each has won its home floor. New York took the first game 81-75, before LA won 80-54 in the the most recent. I think this trend carries over in this one as I like the Liberty to battle tough and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
The teams: After back-to-back wins and with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, this one sets up as a classic “look-ahead” spot for the visitors in my professional opinion. LA is led by Candace Parker with 18.1 points and 7.9 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.4 assists.
No need to question New York’s focus today after seven straight losses, most recently a 96-80 setback to Seattle. The Liberty don’t play again until Sunday either, so I’m fully expecting a concerted effort here from the home side in this one. New York is led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after six or more SU losses. Desperation leads the Liberty to a solid cover on Wednesday.
|08-06-18||Storm v. Liberty +9||Top||96-80||Loss||-110||15 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for New York after it fell 77-62 to the Storm at home earlier in the season. Seattle though comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight victories, while also getting caught “looking ahead” to its game at Indiana tomorrow afternoon. New York though will be taking nothing for granted after six straight losses.
The teams: Seattle is led by Breanna Stewart with 22.5 points and 8.1 boards per game, while Sue Bird adds 7.4 assists.
The Liberty are led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game, while Brittany Boyd adds 5.3 assists.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is 7-3 in its last ten after four or more consecutive SU losses. No need to over think this one, as I think a revenge minded and determined Liberty team catches the Storm “off guard.” Play on New York.
|08-05-18||Dream +5 v. Lynx||Top||86-66||Win||100||24 h 45 m||Show|
The set-up: They Lynx come in off an 85-75 setback at Seattle on Friday night and I think they’re primed for another letdown here as well. These teams have played each other twice this year and so far they’re 1-1.
The teams: Atlanta has won nine of its last ten, most recently an 89-74 victory at home over Chicago on Friday. The Dream are led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 points, while Renee Montgomery averages 3.4 assists. Jessica Breland leads the nightly charge on the glass with 8.1 boards per game.
The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.4 PPG, while Danielle Robison directs the point with 3.2 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way on the glass with 11.7 boards per game.
The pick: The Lynx return home after losing two straight on the road. Minnesota is struggling to find offensive consistency right now and I think the Dream can smell the blood in the water. I look for Atlanta to leave town with a comfortable ATS cover tonight.
|08-02-18||Lynx v. Sparks -3||Top||57-79||Win||100||12 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Sparks are 2-1. LA won 77-76 in Minnesota in the first one, 77-69 at home in the second one, before then falling 83-72 in Minnesota in the latest on July 5th. Minnesota has won three straight and with a tough one on the road in Seattle tomorrow night, the Lynx get caught looking ahead here in my opinion. The Sparks on the other hand have lost two of three and have had a night off to absorb an 81-71 loss to the Dream on Tuesday.
The teams: The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.2 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the point with 3.3 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the glass with 11.7 board a game.
The Sparks are led by Candace Parker with 18 PPG, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.3 assists per night. Parker also leads the rebound department with 7.5 per night.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is already just 5-8 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is already 6-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on the Sparks.
|08-01-18||Mercury +1.5 v. Aces||Top||104-93||Win||100||25 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: These teams have played each other three times this year and so far Phoenix has gone 2-1, winning 72-66 in the first first one, 92-80 on the road in the second one, before then falling 85-82 in the most recent at home back on the 19th.
The teams: The Mercury are the deeper and more experienced team led by Diana Taurasi with 20.3 PPG, She also leads the team in assists with 4.8 per night. It’s Brittney Griner though who controls the glass with 7.2 per game.
The Aces are led by 20 points a night by A’ ja Wilson, while Kelsey Plum directs the show with 3.4 assists per game. Wilson also leads the charge on the glass with 8.6 per night.
The pick: The Aces come in off back-to-back wins and have a date in the Nation’s capital on Friday night. I think the home side comes in complacent gets caught “looking ahead” here. Phoenix on the other hand comes in desperate this week. After its game against Seattle at home on Tuesday night, I think the Phoenix will catch Las Vegas off guard on Wednesday. Grab the points, play on the Mercury.
|07-24-18||Dream +4 v. Sparks||Top||81-71||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for the Dream after they fell 72-64 in LA earlier in the season. This is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league. It also features two of the best players in Tiffany Hayes and Candace Parker.
The teams: The Dream are 15-9 and in second place. They’ll be eager to avenge the earlier loss and to stay ahead of the No. 3 Sparks. Atlanta comes in on top form, having won seven straight, while LA has been shaky with a 4-6 record over its last ten.
Atlanta most recently layed the smack down in Seattle with an 87-74 win. Elizabeth Williams had 17 points for the Dream in that one..
The Sparks got back on track with a win over the Chicago Sky in their latest action. Parker had 19 points in that one, while Nneka Ogwumike had 18 points and 11 boards.
The pick: As mentioned off the top, this is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league, as the Sparks allow 77.4 PPG, while the Dream allow 78.9. But LA has struggled with offensive consistency over the last month, while Atlanta is surging right now, playing with complete chemistry. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the visitors tonight. Play on Atlanta.
|07-20-18||Wings v. Sky +6.5||Top||99-114||Win||100||26 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: Liz Cambage scored a WNBA best 53 points in the Dallas Wings’ victory last Tuesday, but they’re in action on Thursday night against a tough Washington Mystics side at home. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Chicago will look to take advantage and to also avenge an earlier loss to the Wings.
The teams: Dallas is not surprisingly led by Cambage with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way on the glass with 9.2 boards per night.
The Sky are led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 7.6 assists. Cheyenne Parker chips in 6.3 boards per game.
The pick: Clearly Dallas will be tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Chicago though comes in rested and focused and take it for what you will, but note that the Sky are 16-8 ATS in their last 24 in trying to revenge an “in season” SU loss to an opponent in which it gave up 100 or more points in. A great situational play on the Chicago Sky.
|07-19-18||Mystics +4 v. Wings||Top||81-90||Loss||-110||28 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: Dallas Wings’ Liz Cambage just broke the WNBA record with 53 points in her team’s 104-87 win over New York. Cambage is only one player, but after such a momentous occasion, I believe the entire team suffers a mental letdown here. These teams haven’t played yet this year, as this marks the first of three between them. Washington and Elena Delle Donne will look to take advantage.
The teams: Delle Donne leads the Mystics with 20.6 PPG, while Natasha Cloud adds 4.5 assists. Delle Donne is also the leader on the boards with 6.9 per game.
Cambage leads the way offensively for the Wings with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way with 9.2 boards per night.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after being held to 80 points or less in its previous contest (fell 80-77 to open its five-game road trip), while Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 100 points or more. With a game tomorrow night in Chicago, I think the Mystics also get caught “looking ahead” in this one. Play on Washington.
|07-18-18||Fever v. Lynx -14.5||Top||65-89||Win||100||20 h 20 m||Show|
The set-up: Home floor advantage has meant little so far in the season series between these clubs, with the Fever winning 71-59 at Minnesota, before the Lynx responding with an 87-65 win at Indiana a week later. After beating the Fever on July 11th, Minnesota has since dropped two straight home games. The Fever though are in a complete “free fall” right now, having dropped four in a row.
The teams: Indiana is led by Kelsey Mitchell with 13.5 PPG, while Erica Wheeler dishes out 4 assists per night. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 6.8 per night.
The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen added 3.6 assists. Sylvia Fowles controls the boards with 11.9 per night.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a three games or more SU winless streak, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. The Fever get caught “looking ahead” here to their West coast game on Friday night at the Sparks and the Lynx take full advantage and get back on track with a big effort in the final game of their current three-game home stand. Lay the points.
|07-17-18||Dream v. Sun -8||Top||86-83||Loss||-115||25 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: Two red hot teams collide on Tuesday night. The Atlanta Dream have won four straight, while the Connecticut Sun have won two in a row. Ultimately I believe that the home court advantage will prove to be the difference maker in this one.
The teams: The Dream come in having won four straight. Atlanta is led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 PPG, while Alex Bentley dishes out 4.3 assists per night. Jessica Breland leads the charge on the boards with 8.2 a night.
The Sun have won back-to-back games, most recently 83-64 on the road in Minnesota (I had Connecticut in that one) and they are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15 points per night, while Alyssa Thomas adds 4.5 assists per game. Thomas also leads the way on the boards with 9.4 per night.
The pick: These teams are very familiar with each other and as I mentioned off the top, I do indeed believe that “home court” will play a significant role in the outcome of this one, as note that the Sun smashed the Dream 74-58 at home in the first meeting between the clubs this year, before Atlanta then won both subsequent home games, 82-77 and 75-70. With a chance for revenge after back-to-back losses in this series, I look for Connecticut to build off its recent win skein, while everything does definitely point to a letdown finally for the Dream after their recent run of success. Play on the Sun.
|07-15-18||Sun +4 v. Lynx||Top||83-64||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: The last time these teams played, the Sun smashed the Lynx 89-75. I’m expecting another decisive affair here as well. Connecticut comes in ranked third in the East with an 11-10 record, while Minnesota is ranked fifth in the West with a 12-9 record.
The teams: The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15.7 PPG, while Alyssa Thomas directs the show with 4.7 assists a night. Thomas also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 9.7 per game.
The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.6 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen chips in 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles contributes with 12 board per game.
The pick: The Sun broke a three-game slide with a 91-87 win over Phoenix on Friday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over at home here as well. The Lynx come in off a deflating 85-77 home loss to Las Vegas and I believe they’re primed for another letdown here also. Play on Connecticut.
|07-13-18||Aces +10 v. Lynx||Top||85-77||Win||100||26 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Minnesota is 12-8, but it still sits just fourth in the competitive Western Conference. After a slow start the Las Vegas Aces have looked a bit better of late, but they are still in last place in the West with a 9-12 record. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor though and I think it’ll ultimately prove to be the difference maker here.
The teams: Las Vegas lost at home to Minnesota 88-73 back on June 24th. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.6 PPG, while Kelsey Plum runs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Wilson also leads the nightly charge on the boards with 8.5 a game.
Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 19 PPG, while Danielle Robinson dishes out 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way in the rebounding department 11.8 per game.
The pick: The Aces have been quietly dominating, coming into this one having won three straight, most recently a blowout 98-74 victory over Chicago. After a seven-game unbeaten streak, Minnesota has split its last four games, most recently coming off an 87-65 win over Indiana. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Aces’ improvement though and combined with the very real “revenge factor,” all signs point to the points as the correct call. Play on Las Vegas.
|07-11-18||Lynx -10.5 v. Fever||Top||87-65||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
The set-up: Indiana is 2-17, while Minnesota is 11-8. One of Indiana’s two victories occurred against these very Lynx (71-59). Minnesota comes in off a 77-63 loss to Chicago, but with a date at home against bottom feeder Las Vegas on Friday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent again.
The teams: Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 18.9 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the boards with 11.9 per game.
The Fever are led by Kelsey Mitchell with 14.4 PPG, while Erica Wheeler adds 3.9 assists. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 7.2 per night.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after allowing 90 points or more (just lost 90-63 to Dallas.) I’m banking on the Lynx getting caught looking ahead. Play on Indiana.