At 3:00pm ET, my NFL Playoff Total Of The Year is on the Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles under. The quarterbacks will be under the microscope and are a big part of the reason for a high total. Both are very capable but neither of them is going to have as big a game as a lot of people will expect. The Eagles intercepted Daniels three times in two games in the regular season. Hurts is playing at less than 100%. The regular season game at Washington went over but the game at Philadelphia did not. Followers will remember that we nailed the under in that game. Barkley is going to be running the ball very frequently as our Robinson and Daniels for Washington. That will help our cause because the clock will keep ticking with each running play. The game at Washington was an exception for the Eagles. It marked the only time in their last 15 games that they allowed more than 23 points. They allow an average of only 17.6 points, 17.2 at home. During the regular season, the Eagles allowed just 278 yards per game. That was best in the NFL and they were the only team to allow less than 300 per game. Play on the under.

At 8:00 pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Detroit under. As you can see, this is a very high total. Driving the number so high, we've got 2 high-scoring teams each of them led by a coach who doesn't mind rolling the dice. Most probably haven't noticed but we've also got 2 defenses which are suddenly both playing very well. The Commanders have allowed 20 or fewer points in 3 straight road games. The Lions kept the Vikings to 9 points and made a potent Minnesota offense look bad. They've held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 20 or fewer points and 3 of those teams didn't even get to 10. On the season, despite dealing with injuries, the Lions led the NFL in third-down defense. This one won't be the shootout that the total suggests. Play on the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my Wildcard Rd Total Of The Year is on Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams Under. Everyone had been scoring big points against the Detroit defense but the Vikings managed only 9 points against the Lions. Sam Darnold was not good. He finished 18 of 41 with 0 touchdowns. Minnesota managed only 14 first downs. Now Darnold and the Vikings go up against a Rams defense which has played great for weeks. Throw out the Seattle game, as the Rams treated it like it didn't matter. There was still seeding implications but they gave Stafford and others the day off.) The Rams held each of their previous 3 opponents to less than 10 points. Before the Seattle game, only 1 of the Rams last 5 opponents had scored more than 14 points against them and that was Buffalo. On offense, prior to the Seattle game, the Rams had scored less than 20 points in three straight. The Rams have gone under in each of their last 2 WildCard games. They allowed just 11 points their last home playoff wildcard game. This total is high and this will make 3 straight. Play on the under. ***I was already going to play the under if the game was at LA and I still really like the play after the change of venue to Glendale. I will add that the Rams managed only 10 points and 245 yards when they played here this season.

At 430pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on the Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Over. This is a low total. As a matter of fact, its the lowest of the 6 Wildcard games. A little too low, according to my calculations! The Charger offense has caught fire. LA scored 34, 40 and 34 its past 3 games. The Texans are going to need to score if they want to keep up! The past 3 meetings between the Chargers and Texans finished with 58, 70 and 47 points. This will be another high-scoring game, higher than the low total suggests. Play on the over.

At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Month is on Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions Under. We're going to see some points on Sunday night but this is an extremely high total. You're going to find out that its too high. This season's first total was 49. Last year's games had totals of 47.5 and 48. The earlier game finished with 60 points, a 31-29 final. But if you look at the stats, they don't suggest the type of offensive shootout you might imagine. The Lions had 19 first downs. The Vikings had 16. Both teams had balanced run/pass stats but neither reached 400 total yards. The Lions only entered the red zone once and the Vikings never even did so. The previous 6 meetings between these teams all finished with 57 or fewer points. Injuries or not, these defenses aren't as bad as the public thinks. This game stays under the enormous total. Play on the under.

My January AFC North Total of the Month is on Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Under. The Ravens are heavy favorites. They have everything to play for and the Browns have nothing. With Bailey Zappe starting at QB, the Browns are going to have real trouble scoring. Actually, that was going to be the case no matter who started. Zappe hasn't played a down this season and is being thrown to the Wolves. The Ravens will score their points but they aren't going to go over this total by themselves. Their last victory over the Browns came by a 28-3 score and a similar final is expected here. Play on the under.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under. The Panthers are one of only 2 teams in the NFL to average less than 300 yards of offense per game. They manage just 295.8 yards per game. That's right down there with the Giants. Prior to last week's high-scoring game versus Arizona, Carolina had seen 7 of its previous 8 games finish with fewer than 50 points. Tampa has seen 5 of its last 6 games finish with 50 or less. This season's earlier meeting snuck over the total only thanks to Overtime, a tough loss for those who bet the under. That score was still 16-10 nearly halfway through the 4th quarter. This one won't go to OT and will stay below the total. Play on the under.

AT 8:15pm ET, my NFC West Total Of the Year is on Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams Under. The Cardinals may be eliminated from playoff contention but this is still a divisional battle against a team which is fighting for the division title. The Rams are playing stellar defense. Their last 2 games had scores of 12-6 and 19-9. The earlier meeting at Arizona finished with 51. Last year's game at Arizona also finished with 51. But last year's game at LA only produced 35 points and the last 3 meetings at LA have all finished with 45 or less. Play on the under.

At 4:30pm ET, my AFC Total Of the Month is on Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans Under. Like the Chiefs and Steelers in the early game, these teams are both playing on a very short week. Both are playing their 3rd game since 12/15. The Ravens are battling the Steelers for the AFC North crown. The Texans have wrapped up the AFC South. They don't have much to play for and they're down another top receiver after losing Tank Dell last week. He had 6 receptions for 98 yards and a TD before the injury. His loss is huge for Houston. It will lead to some conservative play-calling on Wednesday. The Texans don't want to get embarrassed at home though and we're going to see their defense rise to the challenge of taking on a top team. Two meetings since the start of last season (one regular season, one playoffs) both finished with 44 or fewer points. This one finishes below the high number. Play on the Under.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Total Of the Year is on Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Under. The Colts offense is not scoring many points. Indianapolis managed only 13 points last week, zero in the 2nd half. The Colts have now scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their last 9 games. The Titans know exactly how they feel. They scored 27 last week but that was against a Cincinnati team with a really bad defense. They've still scored 20 or less in 8 of their past 10, including just 6 in the game before the Bengals. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of the NFL for points scored. The defenses have been better than the offenses. The Colts gave up 31 points to Denver. That was a deceiving score though as they only gave up 13 first downs and 193 total yards. The Colts held high-scoring Detroit to 24 points in their last home game. Prior to their game against the high-scoring Bengals, the Titans had allowed only 10 points. They allow the 2nd fewest yards per game of any team in the NFL.

At 4:30pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Month is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under. Quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson are both playing very well overall this season. They're both sure to have their moments. Wilson hasn't been great the past 2 games though and Jackson's struggled against the Steelers are well documented. Games between the Steelers and Ravens are primarily about tough, hard-hitting smash mouth football. They're typically close and they're almost always low-scoring. Look at the scores from the last 8 games: 18-16, 17-10, 17-10, 16-13, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. This season's first meeting stayed well below the total and this afternoon's game is going to do the same. Play on the under.

At 8:15 PM ET, my TNF total of the month is on the Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Under. The Broncos allowed only 13 points last week. They have conceded less than 20 in 4 of their last 5 games. The Chargers had a bad defensive showing last game. They've been stingy all season long before that though and will deliver a much better effort tonight. The Broncos scored 31 points last game but that wasn't because of an amazing offensive effort. As a matter of fact, they managed only 13 first downs and had less than 200 yards of offense. The last 3 games between these AFC West rivals finished with 39, 25 and 31 points. The total for this season's first game was only 37. Tonight's higher total is giving us plenty value. Go with the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my Monday Night Total Of the Year is on Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Under. This is a high total for a game between the Bears and the Vikings. The o/u line was 39.5 for this season's first meeting. Both teams are 8-5 to the under on the season. The Bears scored 13 points last week. Other than the first game against Minnesota where they surprisingly scored 27, the Bears have scored 20 or less in each of their last 6 other games. They average 288.5 yards per game on offense, worst in the entire NFL. Minnesota allows 18.5 ppg and Chicago allows 21.4 ppg. Those are the 6th and 10th best marks in the NFL, entering Week 15. Chicago's last game here had a total of 43 and the final score was 12-10. The Bears held the Vikings to 242 total yards. Play on the under.

AT 8:20pm ET, my NFC Total Of The Year is on Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks Under. This is a very high total for this week's Sunday Night game. It allows us a lot of room to go under. The Seahawks have really elevated their defense in recent weeks. They've held 4 straight opponents to 21 or fewer points and 3 of those teams had 18 or less. Their average number of points allowed over those 4 games was only 15.5. The Packers have played some high-scoring teams lately, Detroit and Miami. So their recent games have been higher-scoring. They've still allowed less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4. The last meeting between these teams produced only 17 total points. Some might be surprised that this will be another lower-scoring game. Go with the under.

At 4:25 PM ET my AFC Total Of The Week is on Indianapolis/Denver under the total. The Broncos are off a high-scoring game against the Browns but they had allowed an average of less than 14 points over their previous 3 games, none of those opponents reaching the 20 mark. The colts are 2-0 to the under the past 2x time that they were underdogs of at least 5 points. They scored only 6 and 13 points in those games. The last time these teams faced each other, no touchdowns were scored. Seven total field goals were kicked in the Colts' 12-9 overtime victory. The previous meeting was a 15-13 Colts victory and the one before that was a 25-13 win by the Broncos. All 3 of those games stayed under and Sunday afternoon's game will as well. Play on the under.

At 8:15 PM ET, my selection is on Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Under. This is a very high o/u line, thanks in no small part to the Bengals entering the game on a 5-0 over run. The large number gives us a lot of "wiggle room." The Cowboys last 4 o/u lines were all 45 or less. Even the Bengals have only had one game all year with a total greater than 48.5. That was against Baltimore, the team which averages more yards of offense than any other team in the league. Baltimore averages an extra 100 yards of offense per game than Dallas. So, the Ravens could keep up with the Bengals but the Cowboys won't likely be able to. If Dallas isn't scoring as much, the Bengals won't be forced to keep piling up the points either. The Cowboys last 3 home games have all finished with 47 or less. Make it 4 in a row after tonight.

At 8:20pm ET, my Sunday Night Total Of the Month is on San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills Under. If you're not experiencing it first-hand, you've probably heard about the snow and cold being felt in much of the country, including Buffalo. As a matter of fact, Bills have asked their fans to help shovel the stadium, for $20/hour. A little bit of cold doesn't affect the game too much. But extreme weather like this can and will. Purdy is questionable for the 49ers. He'd have to be better than Allen but still isn't going to solve SF's offensive issues single-handedly. Either way, the offense will struggle in the cold on Sunday. They're going to need the defense to elevate its level of play. They'll do their best to run McCaffery as much as possible to keep Buffalo on the sidelines. Play on the under.

AT 4:05pm Et, my NFC South Total Of the Month is on Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Under. This is quite a large total for a Carolina game. The Panthers' last 4 o/u lines were 43, 40, 43.5 and 40. The Panthers average only 285.5 yards of offense per game. Only New England at 280.2 ypg is worse. Prior to the 27 points they scored against the Chiefs, the Panthers had scored 24 or less in 7 straight games. Tampa's last 2 games have had final scores of 37 and 43. The last game between these teams finished at 9-0, 3 field goals for the entire game. Tampa had 228 yards of offense and 14 first downs. Carolina had only 11 first downs and just 199 yards of offense. Three of the past 4 meetings have finished with less than 40. Play on the under.

My AFC West Total Of The Year is on Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Under. Last season, these teams played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 48 points. This season, they also played their first game at Las Vegas. That game finished with 47 points. Last year, when the venue changed to chilly Arrowhead Stadium, the score was a much lower 20-14. With today's game also played at Arrowhead, another lower-scoring Game 2 is expected. The Chiefs last game here was a 16-14 final. The Raiders, who will have Aiden O'Connell at QB instead of Minshew (lost for season with injury) have scored 20 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games. After allowing other teams to hang around, the Chiefs' focus will be on delivering a dominant defensive effort. Lots of running plays with the clock ticking and the game moving by very quickly. Play on the under.

At 12:30pm ET, my NFC North Total Of The Year is on Detroit/Chicago Over. The Lions can score points against any defense. They've scored 24 or more points in 8 straight games. They scored more than 30 in 6 of those, more than 40 in 4 of them and more than 50 in two. They are potent enough that they have the potential to go over this number by themselves. That's unlikely but the Bears will chip in plenty to help their cause. Chicago just scored 27 against a good Minnesota defense last week. The Bears had 398 yards of offense, 320 through the air. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has improved dramatically since the Bears fired Shane Waldron and promoted Brown to offensive coordinator in. In two games since the switch, Williams' completion percentage has increased from 61% to 71%, his other stats improving along with the improved completion percentage. Williams' yards per attempt has climbed from 6.1 to 7.3, his pressure percentage has been nearly cut in half (34% to 18%) and he's getting rid of the ball quicker as his average pass time has dropped from 2.9 seconds to 2.42 seconds. These teams faced each other last Thanksgiving Day and the Lions won 31-26. The Bears were up 26-14 in the fourth quarter before Detroit scored the game's final 17 points. Neither team is going to quit in this one either and the final score will again finish above the 50 mark. Play on the over.

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of The Week is on the Pittsburgh Steelers vs the Cleveland Browns Under. This total is low and that will scare some off. Thats fine by me as I made this number 31. The Steelers only allow 16.2 points per game, the 2nd best mark in the NFL. That's exactly what Cleveland averages on offense, 16.2 points per game. That's the 2nd fewest in the NFL. Keep in mind that that Browns averaged 16.2 points against defenses that weren't nearly as good as this one. Likewise, the Steelers allowed 16.2 points, on average, against offenses that are much better than Cleveland. So the Browns aren't likely to even reach their average. Cleveland can still play defense though and is going to be determined to shut down the Steelers. The Browns have scored 14 and 10 points their last 2 games and they have scored 16 or less in 7 of their last 8. Last year's game here had a total of 34.5 and finished with a score of 13-10. Play on the under.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Pittsburgh under. The weather doesn't look like it will cooperate. Its expected to be unseasonably pleasant for Sunday's game. That's OK. This total is still too high! The last 7 games between these teams had scores of: 17-10, 17-10, 16-14, 16-13, 20-19 and 19-14. See the pattern? All 6 finished with less than 40 points. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh showdowns feature hard-nosed defensive, close games. Harbaugh said this: "We're getting ready to play our best defensive game on Sunday." The Steelers allow 16.2 points a game, second in the NFL in scoring defense. This will be a "typical" Baltimore/Pittsburgh game with the final score staying beneath this high total. Play on the under.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFC Total Of the Week is on Washington and Philadelphia under. Washington's offense has been much better this season. Jayden Daniels has more than lived up to the hype. Daniels and his teammates haven't faced a defense playing the way this one is though. (Sorry, Steeler fans, it's true.) The Eagles defense enters Week 11 ranked second in the NFL in yards allowed (274.1) per game and tied for fifth in points allowed (17.9) per game. They allowed 6 points last game and are allowing an average of only 13 points over the past 5 games. Three of those 5 games finished with 40 or less. Washington't defense is also better than advertised and has gotten better as the season has progressed. The Commanders have conceded 15 of fewer points in 4 of their past 7. On the short week, look for this divisional battle to be low-scoring.

At 8:15pm ET my MNF Total Of The Month is on Miami/LA under. I won with the Dolphins when they covered against the Bills last week. This week, I'm shifting to the Miami total. The Rams offense has been better recently. Also, everyone knows that Tua Tagoavailoa makes the Miami offense a lot better. The problem is that when "everyone knows something," the value quickly disappears. In this case, this total is jacked way up. This total is now much higher than it was for Tua's first game back, against Arizona. But Arizona averages more points and more yards than the Rams. I think this number is an over-reaction and has gotten too high. Four of Miami's last 5 road games have finished with fewer than 34 points. The Rams are 3-1 to the under their past 4 games and have allowed 24 or less in 6 straight games. Play on the under.

At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Total Of the Year is on Detroit/Houston over. The Texans are going to need to score a lot of points, if they want to bounce back from last week's loss against the Jets. The Lions average 32.2 points per game, which happens to be the most in the NFL, entering Sunday. The Lions might have only scored 24 last game but they put up 52, 31, 47 and 42 points in their previous 4 games. Both teams rank in the top 11 in the NFL, as far as yards per game. He's still listed as questionable but Houston Nico Collins has been activated from the injured list. If he passes the pregame tests, the expectation is that he'll play. He's a big play threat and makes the Texans offense much better. The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 52 and they combined for 66. This will be another shootout. Play on the over.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC South Total Of The Year is on Atlanta/New Orleans under. This is generous number. Take away their first 2 games, which bumped up their average, and the Saints are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. New Orleans has scored 12, 24, 13, 27, 10, 8 and 22 points its last 7 games. That's an average of 16.57, less than 17 per game. Each of their last 3 games has finished with 45 or fewer points. New Orleans played well defensively last game. The Saints gave up just 246 total yards and conceded only 15 first downs. The Falcons just held Dallas to 21 points. Two of their past 3 games have gone to the under. Their offense managed only 310 total yards and 17 first downs last week. The Falcons were better against Tampa the previous week but Seattle held them to just 14 points the week before that. The total is higher than any of the past 7 Saints/Falcons totals. I'm going with the under.

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC North Total Of the Year is on Cincinnati/Baltimore under. A very high total is being provided for this game. As a matter of fact, its likely higher than anything we'll encounter on Sunday or Monday. The AFC North rivals have played some high-scoring games against each other but none of them had totals listed as high as this one. Three of the Bengals' 4 road games have finished with 51 or fewer points. The Bengals last 2 road games had scores of 21-14 and 17-7. The Ravens allowed only 10 points last week. All 4 of their home games have finished with 53 or fewer points, 3 of those with 51 or less. Quarterbacks will draw a lot of attention but each time ran the ball more than 30x last week. All those running plays will help our cause. This number has gotten too high and I'm going with the under.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Total Of The Year is on Washington and NY under. Five of the past 6 games between the Giants and Commanders have finished with 40 or fewer points. They combined for 39 points in Week 2. This will be another low-scoring divisional showdown. The Giants have scored 3 and 7 points in their last 2 home games. They rank 31st in the NFL with an average of 14.6 points per game. On the season, the Giants are 6-2 to the under. The Commanders have allowed 15 points or less in consecutive games and in 4 of their past 5 games overall. Washington's offense has been very good with QB Daniels looking to win the Rookie Of The Year. Daniels was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday with a rib injury though. He'll play but things won't be as easy as he's gotten accustomed to. Go Under.

At 4:25pm ET, my #1 October Total Of the Month is on Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Over. I won with the Chiefs under last week but their game still finished with 46 points. They scored 28 themselves and they scored 26 the previous game. This week's total is much lower than last week's. As a matter of fact, it's the lowest Chiefs total this season. The Chiefs offense will have a breakout game. Three of the Raiders' last 5 opponents have scored 32 or more points. Other than a loss the last time they played, KC's last loss of any kind, the Chiefs had scored 30 or more points 8 straight times against the Raiders. The Chiefs offense should get a big boost with the expected debut of DeAndre Hopkins. He went over 1000 yards for the 7th time in his career, just last season. The Raiders offense may not be good but they still average more than 18 points per game at home. They scored 20 last time they faced the Chiefs and have scored 79 their last 4 games against them. This score will finish over this low number. Play on the over.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Total Of The Week is on Baltimore/Tampa under. Both teams have played some high-scoring games this month and those results have helped bring this total up. For some perspective, Tampa's last 4 games had totals of 42, 43, 43 and 40.5. These offenses are quite good. They both like to run the ball and neither are that easy to run against. As a matter of fact, the Baltimore run defense is ranked number 1 in the NFL, allowing 59.0 yards rushing per game. Baker Mayfield said this about Baltmore's defense: "They're physical. They want to be the bully, but they have those guys that set the tone for them on all three levels." Mayfield knows. He's faced Baltimore 9x over his career, posting an ugly 80.4 QB passer rating with 11 interceptions in 9 games. Only 2 of those 9 games finished with more than 50 points. Both of Lamar's 2 career starts versus Tampa finished with less than 50 points and they averaged 40.5. This game will stay under the big total. Play on the under.

At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Total Of The Month is on Denver/New Orleans under. The total might seem low but its really not low enough. The Saints are missing their QB and #1 receiver. Rookie Spencer Rattler was forced to throw to catch up against the Bucs but that's not how New Orleans wants it. The Saints will look to employ a more conservative gameplan tonight. The Broncos have a rookie QB of their own. Though it may seem that Bo Nix has had some quality moments, he still has only the 34th best passer rating (73.7) in the NFL. The Broncos make up for it with their defense. They allowed just 10 and 9 points in their last 2 road games. They rank in the top 5 of the NFL for points allowed and yards allowed. The Saints' defensive numbers aren't as good but you know that Saints' coach Allen will, Payton's former defensive coordinator, will have his defense fired up for a bounce-back effort. Also, the Denver offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL and won't be capable of taking advantage of any New Orleans defensive deficiencies. With 2 rookies behind center and two coaches that know each other well, this game will feature a lot of running the ball and will be a low-scoring defensive battle. Go with the under.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Total Of The Month is on the Bills and Jets over. These may be good defenses but this total is too low. Even off a bad game, the Bills still average 28.4 points per game. Josh Allen has vowed to be better. The Jets average 18.3 but they've hit 24 twice, including once in their only divisional game. Like Allen, Rodgers is vowing to improve. Rodgers and the Jets offense will benefit from the change in play-calling. In addition to the firing of head-coach Saleh, the Jets are handing the play-calling duties to passing game coordinator Todd Downing, as opposed to Nathaniel Hackett. The Bills have allowed 23 and 35 points their last 2 games. Each of their last seven games, including all five this season, has finished with at least 41 points. Monday's game will continue that streak. Play on the Over.

At 8:20 ET, my October Non-Conf. Total Of The Month is on Dallas/Pittsburgh over. I won with the under in the Cowboys last game. That was a divisional battle on a short week. Plus, the total was higher. This non-conference clash will be a lot higher-scoring. Dallas doesn't effectively run the ball. That leads to a lot of passing and clock stoppages. CeeDee Lamb gets in a zone and he and Prescott are nearly unstoppable. Before the low-scoring NYG contest, every Dallas game had finished with at least 50 points. And those 3 games averaged more than 55. Some key defenders are out on both sides, including pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence . Dallas also doesn't effectively stop the run. That will help the Steelers, as their effective running game will set up their passing attack. The Steelers are off a 27-24 game against the Colts. Fields had a big game and he also had a great game (17 of 23, 151 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 60 rushing yards and a rushing TD) with a 120 QB rating when he previously faced Dallas. The final score was 49-29. This will be another high-scoring game. Play on the over.

At 8:15 ET, my NFC South Total Of The Month is on Atlanta/TB under the total. The pattern the past 2 seasons between these divisional rivals has been to play a low-scoring game against each other early in the season and a higher scoring rematch later on. Last year, the first meeting between these teams finished with a score of 16-13. The previous year, the first meeting finished at 21-15. This will be another low-scoring battle. Tampa just held the Eagles to 16 points last game. The Eagles only had 227 total yards and 16 first downs. As a matter of fact, the 227 yard effort was the Eagles fewest yards since October 14, 2021, when they gained just 213 yards. (That was also against the Bucs.) The Eagles' 114 net passing yards was also their fewest since that same game in 2021. In their only road game, the Bucs held Detroit to just 16 points. Atlanta has also playing solid defense. The Falcons last game went over but their first 3 all stayed under the total. Overall, Falcon games are averaging only 40 combined points. Play on the under.

At 8:20 ET, my AFC Total Of The Month is on Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Under. We're treated to a great game on Sunday night. The Bills have been the most impressive team through 3 weeks. They're 3-0 and their last 2 games haven't been close. Can the Ravens hand them their first loss? Of course they can. Will they? I'm not certain. I do fully believe that the Ravens will slow them down though. Buffalo has been scoring a lot of points but the reality is that the Bills are averaging just 329 yards of offense. That ranks only 13th. That's only partly a result of being able to take their foot off the gas when leading. They've also benefitted from a lot of short fields. The Ravens are going to make things a lot more difficult. They just really slowed Dallas last game. They lead the league in rushing yards allowed. Teams haven't been able to run against them and that makes throwing a lot more difficult. With only 16 points allowed per game, the Bills defense has also been thriving. The last 3 h2h games between the Bills and Ravens finished with 41, 20 and 43 points. All three went to the under. So does Sunday night's game.

At 4:25pm, my AFC West Total Of The Month is on KC/LA over. I won with the Chiefs under in their last game. That was against a stingy Atlanta team and the total was quite a lot higher. I don't think the Chargers are as good defensively as the Falcons (right now) and this number is quite a lot lower. Accordingly, I will now be backing the over. Much will be made of Herbert's questionable status. Of course, he's very important but it's also important to recognize that the Chargers defense is a mess right now. This is a team with numerous defensive injuries. Mahomes will take the opportunity to get himself right. Nine of the past 10 meetings have finished with 41 or more points and six of the last 7 finished with at least 48 points. Notably, the only Chiefs/Chargers game which was low-scoring was one where the Chiefs rested Mahomes, Kelce and other starters. They'll have the "A-lineup" in the game for this one and they'll ensure it finishes with more than enough to get us over this low number.

At 4:25pm ET, my Non-Conf. TOW is on Baltimore/Dallas under. Both teams have a good offense. Both also have a good defense. With both teams having been involved in some high-scoring games already, the total is quite high. None of the past 4 head-to-head meetings have had totals of greater than 45. The Ravens have three new starters on their offensive line and that will hinder their offense. Dallas will be better defensively than it was against the Saints. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said this about the run defense: "We made some technique adjustments that we need to be better at," "We can't get gapped, and we were gapped time and time again. That puts more pressure on your second-level defenders, obviously your linebackers and our primary support element. But yeah, we have to. It's that first step, the discipline, playing the technique, and making sure the fit behind them is in order. We definitely were not clean and we weren't consistent." Quarterbacks are both excellent but running the ball will still be a key for both teams. The Cowboys only gave up 35 or more points twice last season. They allowed 13 and 17 points in the following games, both going to the under. We will see a hard-hitting game with the final score staying below the total.

At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night Total Of The Year is on New England and New York under the total. This total might appear low but there is still plenty of room to go under. The Patriots are averaging 300 yards of offense per game but they'll be unlikely to match that against a very good Jets' defense. The Jets are averaging just 265.5 yards of offense. Only 5 teams are worse. Allowing just 291 yards per game, the Patriots defense is playing well. Their 16.5 points allowed per game is 5th best in the NFL. The last 3 meetings between these teams had scores of 10-3, 15-10 and 17-3. The Patriots had only 6 first downs and 119 yards in the last game. New York wasn't all that much better. This sets up to be another tough defensive battle with frequent running plays keeping the clock moving and drives ending in punts and field goals as opposed to touchdowns. Play on the Under.

At 8:20 ET, my #1 Total Of The Month is on Chicago/Houston Under. Both teams enter at 1-0. Chicago is off a 24-17 win over Tennessee, while Houston posted the 29-27 road win at division rival Houston. Both scores could have been lower. The Houston score was only 15-13 into the 4th quarter. Twenty-eight points were scored in the final 14 minutes. Chicago's defense led the charge in its Week 1 victory, with TJ Edwards posting a team-high 15 total tackles. The Bears allowed just 244 total yards. The Chicago offense was even worse though. As a matter of fact, the Bears managed only 148 total yards and just 11 first downs. So, their 24 points scored was misleading. They will try and take pressure off their young QB with a more effective ground game this week. CJ Stroud had 234 passing yards and two TD's in Houston's Week 1 win. But it was RB Joe Mixon who carried the offensive load with 159 rushing yards and a TD. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense, look for the time to keep ticking and the combined final score to stay under.

At 1:00pm ET my NFC South TOM is on Carolina and NO to go under the total. Clearly, this is an important early season game for both of these NFC South hopefuls. I'm not 100% positive who in fact will win cover the spread in this game, but whoever does, it will be because of having the better defensive unit, as I do indeed expect this total to fall under the posted number. Dave Canales is now directing the show in Carolina, with Bryce Young once again back under center. Canales is known as an offensive coach but he's not working with much and its going to take time to implement his schemes. The Saints are led by Derek Carr for a second straight year. He was far from amazing last year and Saints fans are already talking about who will replace him. These teams of course met twice last year, with New Orleans coming out on top of each. Each was a lower-scoring battle, with the Saints holding on for the 20-17 victory in Week 2 on the road, before then winning 28-6 at home in December. Nothing is going to change here as far as the pace and tempo, with the improved New Orleans defense setting the tone. This number is high, the play is the under.

This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs.

San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points.

The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under!

The Chiefs went over the total in their game against the Bills. Depending on the time and place, the Ravens game either landed right on the total or went over it. With those games having quite a lot of points, Sunday's AFC Championship O|U line is quite high. Too high.

We're talking about the top 2 scoring defenses in the NFL. In the regular season, Baltimore allowed 16.5 points a game. KC allowed 17.3. They've also allowed the fewest points in the playoffs. The Ravens allowed 10 points. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5.

These teams are going to pound the rock, especially the Ravens. It's not always conventional but they run more than any team. They ran 42 times last week against Houston. That keeps the clock moving and under the total on Sunday.

The Buccaneers were involved in a shootout with the Texans back in Week 9. The final score was 39-37 as the game turned wild in the 4th quarter with 31 points. That was the only time all season that Tampa allowed more than 27 points. On the season, the Bucs allowed just 19.1 points, tied for 6th best. They have also really turned it up in recent weeks. They held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards in the Wildcard Rd and they allowed less than 12 points a game over the final 3 games of reg. season. In the final game, they pitched a shutout.

Tampa coach Todd Bowles said this of his defense: "We've gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks. Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. ... Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody's trusting each other next to them and they're playing for each other."

The Lions defense held the Rams to 6 second half points last week. They also held the Bucs to 6 points, a 20-6 win, during the regular season. Tampa had only 13 first downs and 251 total yards. That total was only 44. This one is a lot higher. Too high. Go with the Under.

The Texans have looked pretty good but they are now on the road and facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. No team allowed fewer points than the 16.5 ppg allowed by the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans held the Browns to 14 points and 324 yards. They weren't dominant defensively like the Ravens but ranked in the top half of all defenses for points and yards allowed.

In addition to allowing the fewest number of points, the Ravens led the league in rushing. They will keep the clock ticking and the Houston offense on the sidelines. Points will not come easily in this game. Go with the Under.

The Eagles offense stumbled down the stretch. The Eagles scored 10 points last game and that marked the 4th time in 6 games that they failed to reach the 20 point mark. The injury to Brown, their top receiver, is a big blow to the offense.

The Bucs got here by playing defense. They allow only 19.1 points a game while scoring just 20.5. Both quarterbacks are playing at less than 100%.

The Eagles won 25-11 when the teams met in the regular season. That was when Philadelphia was scoring with ease. The Eagles won't get that many this evening and the Bucs are likely to also have trouble scoring. The line is generous. Go with the Under.

The Chiefs transformed themselves into a defensive team this year. The offense wasn't as potent and the defense picked up the slack. The Dolphins were explosive most of the season but their offense slowed down the stretch. Those are the biggest reasons why we're now working with a total in the low/mid 40s, as compared to a total of 51.5 when these teams faced each other back in November. That's a big drop. Too big!

It'll be cold but this is still Patrick Mahomes vs. Tua Tagovailoa. Mahomes still has Kelce to throw to and Tagovailoa's top target, Tyreek Hill will be playing his first game back at Arrowhead. These are some of the best offensive players on the planet and they won't be stopped by the cold.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on offense but their defense is severely depleted. They've given up 77 points in their last 2 games alone. Their games average more than 52 points. This one will finish over the low total! ***WILDCARD TOY***

Both these teams got a lot better as the season progressed. The Bears started terribly but have currently won back-to-back games and have victories in 4 of their last 5. The Packers entered November with a 2-5 record but now find themselves at 8-8 and in control of their own playoff destiny.

A big part of the reason for the improvement comes on the defensive side. Since Week 11, the Bears have allowed fewer than 20 points four times. They have 16 takeaways during that time. In fact, the Bears defense now leads the NFL in interceptions.

The Packers just held the Vikings to 10 points to close out 2023. Minnesota managed just 211 yards.

The last meeting at Lambeau finished with 37 points. With both offenses missing some important players, the final score will again stay below the total! ***NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH***

Still angry about last week's controversy, the Lions say they want to win. The Vikings technically still have hope. Realistically, however, this game likely doesn't mean much. The Vikings won't be going to the playoffs and the Lions will be locked into the #3 seed.

Nick Mullens is back at QB and he threw 4 picks last time these teams met. He will miss throwing to Hockensen. The reliable tight-end had 4 receptions for 58 yards in the first meeting.

For all the bluster, I'm projecting a lower scoring game. Detroit is off a 20-19 loss. Minnesota managed only 10 points last week and has scored just 71 total points over the last 5 games, an average of 14. Vikings are 5-3 to the under on the road. This one will also stay under! ***EARLY RISER***

First game went over but these teams are not the same ones that faced each other at beginning of the season. Both offenses are missing a lot of important weapons. First game had a total of 40.5 This one is much higher. That gives us a lot more room to maneuver.

The Texans defense has come to life. Last week, Houston allowed only 3 points. They gave up just 11 first downs and 187 total yards. Last road game, the Texans allowed only 16 points.

The Colts last 3 games have all finished with 43 points or less. They are going to want to run the ball. The Texans are strong at stopping the run. This will add up to a low-scoring defensive battle. ***AFC TOM***

Detroit has clinched the division but these teams are both still alive in the Wildcard hunt. The winner of this game will have a reasonable chance. The loser will pretty much have no hope. I'm not going to speculate on who wins. Instead, I'm going with the over.

The Packers are 5-0 to the over their last 5 games. Each of those games had at least 46 points. The last one had 63.

The Vikings are 2-0 to the over their last 2 games. Both finished with more than 50.

This season's first meeting was low-scoring. That also happened last year. The second game was much higher-scoring, finishing with 58 points last New Year's Day. This number is too low. Go with the Over. ***NFC North TOM***

It's a low number. Not low enough. These are two of the best defenses in football. Neither offense is consistent.

The Jets offense is especially anemic. They managed to score 30 in each of their last 2 home games but they scored 0 last time that they were on the road. They average just 12 points per road game.

Cleveland home games are lower-scoring than Clev. road games. The Browns allow only 13.1 points per game here, scoring just 20.5.

The Browns have allowed less than 300 yards in five of their past six games. The Browns rank 1st against the pass (160.1 yards per game), 1st in total defense (260.3 yards per game), 1st in yards per play (4.46 yards) and 1st in interception rate (3.46 percent).

With Flacco and Semian projected to be behind center, this game goes under. ***TNF TOM***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 50 points. Both teams allow more than 24 points a game. These teams play again in New York in 2 weeks. That game might be low-scoring but this one won't be. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over at home. Their only game which didn't go over the total here still finished with 48 points. Their other 5 home games had scores of 62, 65, 51, 71 and 61. The Giants have played 2 divisional games since the start of November and both finished with 50 or more points. Go with the Over! ***NFC EAST TOM***

Given the Patriots' offensive woes, it would be pretty easy to make a case for the under. New England ranks last in the league in points per game. That's been factored into the total though. This is the lowest O|U line on the board. Its lower than yesterday's game. Its lower than any today and its lower than any tomorrow. Next Thursday's game between the Jets and Browns has opened with a similarly low number. That's 2 great defenses though. The Patriots don't fall into that category. The Broncos certainly don't. Denver just allowed 42 points last game. The Broncos allow more than 25 points per game, the Patriots allow more than 21. Five of Denver's last 6 games have finished with at least 39. This is number is too low! ***SNF TOY***

This season's first game had a final score of 16-10. Saturday's game will also be low-scoring. This is a late December divisional game. Both banged-up offense is led by a backup quarterback. Browning has impressed but he will be without Ja'Marr Chase. Over their last 5 games, the Steelers have scored 10, 16, 10, 18 and 13 points. The defense struggled last week but had previously held 8 of 9 opponents to 21 or less. Both defenses are dealing with some injuries but both will come to play. Rudolph's last start finished with 32 points, a 16-16 tie. This game will have a lot of running plays and that's going to keep the score down. Go with the under. ***AFC NORTH TOY***

This total is too low. Philadelphia games average 51 points. Seattle games average 46. The Eagles offense is very difficult to stop but their defense has allowed 33, 42 and 34 points their last 3 games. Similarly, Seattle has allowed 28, 41 and 31 points its last 3. Both defenses saw some important players miss practice this week. The Eagles are healthy on offense. The Seahawks hope to have Geno Smith back to lead their offense. The extra day's rest helps his chances. Smith or Lock, the Seahawks know they are going to need a lot of points. This one goes over! ***NFC TOW***

The Jets offense has had its moments but has mostly been inconsistent. Before going overboard about their 30 point effort against Houston, remember that they scored 8, 13, 6, 12, 6 and 13 points their previous 6 games. The Miami offense is dangerous but NY has the defense to slow them. The Jets rank in the top 5 in the NFL for yards allowed. The Dolphins defense is better than the general public realizes. The Dolphins allowed 2 touchdowns in the final 3 minutes last game but they had only given up 14 for the first 57 minutes of that game. Before that, they gave up 15, 13 (to the Jets) and 13 in 3 previous games. They are a top 10 defense for yards allowed. Last season, the game at NY finished with 57 points but the rematch in Miami was far lower-scoring, finishing with only 17 points. This season the game at NY finished with 47. Once again, the rematch wiull be far lower-scoring. Go with the Under! ***AFC East TOY***

The Lions scored only 13 points against Chicago last week. Now they take on a Denver defense which just allowed 7 points. The Broncos have been stingy for the past couple of months. Before holding the Chargers to 7, they allowed 19, 17, 9, 22, 20, 12 and 22 points. That's an average of 16 points allowed over their past 8 games. Although the defense has played well, the Broncos tend to have trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 24 or fewer points in every road game but one, averaging 20.7 points and only 191.3 yards of offense. 8 straight Denver games have finished with 46 or less. Go with the Under! ***Non-Conf TOM***

I played on the Chargers in this season's earlier game. It had an O|U line of 49 points. This one is much, much lower. The biggest difference is that Herbert played in the first game and that he may not in this one. He's questionable at the time of this writing. Coach Staley said Monday: "There’s a lot of information that we’re gathering right now, but he's as tough as they come. We’re gonna make sure that whatever it is, we’re going to do what’s best for Justin long term." Remember that Herbert was only 13 of 24 for 167 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the first game. He did add 2 rushing TDs but still his performance wasn't one of his best. But its because of him, primarily, that the total has come down so much. That's giving us value on the over. Of course, Herbert's not the only factor. The Raiders scoring 0 points last week also works in our favor to bring the line down. The last 9 meetings have all finished with 41 or more. With or without Herbert, this number is too low! ***AFC West TOY***

In my opinion, this number is too low. Both defenses are mediocre, both teams allow more than 20 points a game. The Vikings offense stalled last game but had previously been firing on all cylinders. The Raiders just had three straight games AFC teams, their most recent finishing with 48 points. The three games came against two playoff teams in KC and Miami and a really good defensive team in the New York Jets. Last time they faced an NFC opponent, the Vikings scored 30. Both offenses will have areas where they can enjoy success against these defenses. All 4 meetings over the years finished with at least 44 points. I've got this one penciled in for at least that many once again. ***NFC TOY***

If not for all the low-scoring primetime games, we could be looking at a higher Sunday Night total. As it is, we've got a nice low number. KC scored 31 last game. The game finished with 48 points. The Chiefs have scored 31 or more in 2 of their last 3 against the Packers. Green Bay scored 29 last game. Packers coach Matt LaFleur played things more aggressively after expressing remorse for previously being too conservative with his play-calling. The game finished with 51 points. That makes 3 straight GB games that have finished with at least 42 points. This one finishes with more than that! ***Non-Conf TOW***

Games between these teams at Carolina have been lower-scoring but games in Tampa have been higher-scoring. Carolina's last five visits to Tampa have finished with scores of 41, 63, 48, 58 and 54 points. The last 4 of those all went over the total. Last season's game at Carolina had 24 points but the game at Tampa had 54. This season, Tanpa games average 39.9 points. Carolina games average 42.2 points. Getting rid of Frank Reich can only help the offense. The emphasis will be on improving scoring. The final score will finish above the low total! ***NFC South TOY***

Fields is back and the Bears offense is looking better. The defense continues to struggle. Chicago's last game saw 57 points scored. Vikings scored 27 last home game, a 46 point game against New Orleans. Minnesota home games average 44 but Bears' road games average 49.3. Bears last three visits here have had scores of 51, 48 and 60. This one goes over! **NFC North TOM**

Two non-conference teams. Neither is going to the playoffs. Why not throw caution to the wind? Neither defense is looking too good. The Titans gave up 34 points last week; the 6th straight time that they've allowed 20 or more. Carolina allowed 33 last game. That was the 4th time that the Panthers gave up 33 or more in their last 8 games. The Titans have scored 27 or more in 3 of their 4 home games. Their last game here finished with more than 50 points. It also came against an NFC South opponent. This one flies over the low total! ***NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

Neither defense is pitching many shutouts these days. Tennessee has allowed 20 or more points in 5 straight games. Jacksonville allowed 34 last game and has given up at least 20 in 4 of 5 games. The Titans only division game finished with 39 points but the Jaguars' three divisional games have finished with 52, 54 and 57 points. The Titans like to play conservatively at times but they will have to throw caution to the wind if they want to keep up with the Jaguars. Five of the last 7 meetings finished with more than 40 points and last year's 2 games averaged 47. This one goes OVER! ***AFC South TOY***

Ravens offense can't be stopped. Baltimore has scored more than 30 points in 4 straight games. Bengals scored 27 last game and have gone over the 30 mark each of last 2 road games. The earlier meeting finished with 51 points. Bengals gave up 20 or more yards 17 different times last game. The Ravens had trouble stopping both the run and the pass. This will be another shootout! ***TNT TOM***

It may seem that stand-alone NFL games have been going under at a pretty good rate. Previous results from other games have nothing to do with this one though. In this case, the number is too low. The Jets defense is pretty good but they still allow 19.5 points per game. The Raider defense allows 21.4 points a game. Last time these teams met they scored 59 points. The total was 48.5. The Raiders scored 30 last game, their offense coming alive. They will build on that and the Jets will be better than they were last game. This game goes Over the low total! ***AFC TOW

An under streak by the Giants has allowed for a very low total. The Week 1 meeting had a total of 44.5. This one is below 40. That's too low, even with the sorry state of the Giants. Tommy DeVito may be just what the Giants need for a game to go over. He went 15-of-20 for 175 yards with a touchdown in relief. He may help the Giants offense but he could also turn the ball over and give Dallas easy points. The Cowboy's last game finished with 51 points. The Cowboys' previous game finished with 63 points. Seven of the Cowboys' 8 games have produced 40 or more points. The other had 37. The Cowboys might go over this total by themselves but they won't need to. *** NFC East TOY

The Chargers can score points with the best of them but they often can't stop the other team from doing the same thing. Their games average 48.9 points. Nine of their 10 games in 2023 have finished above the 40 point mark. The other one nearly did, landing on 37. The Chargers and Jets last faced each other in November of 2020, Justin Herbert's rookie year. The total was set at 47. The game finished with 62 points! Herbert threw for 366 yards (277 in the first half!) and three touchdowns. Keenan Allen set a franchise-record 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Though this Jets defense is better than that one, Herbert will have success again tonight. This will be the Jets' third game against AFC West teams this season. The first two finished with 43 and 52 points, both going over. This one will do the same! ***MNF toy

When the Bengals and Bills played each other in the playoffs, the weather wasn't good. There was lots of snow and the temperature was below zero. Despite the conditions and despite playing without some pieces of their offense, the Bengals still put up big 27 points and more than 400 yards. The Bills couldn't get going until it was too late. No snow in tonight's rematch and both offenses will benefit. Bills are averaging more than 30 points their last 2 road games and 27.8 points a game on the season. Bengals started slowly on offense this season but have gone over the 30 mark in 2 of their last 3. Last nine games Bills were underdogs all went over. Scores of 78, 54, 60, 58, 62, 82, 60, 62 and 78! This will make 10 straight. ***AFC TOY

Recent Chargers games have slipped beneath the Vegas total. Otherwise, this total could be in the 50's. Tonight's game will be higher-scoring. These are not good defenses. Chargers allow 2nd most yards to opposing offenses, 406.8 per game. Chargers also allow 25.8 points a game. Bears allow 26.9. The Chicago offense has come to life. Bears have scored 28 or more in 3 of their last 4. Their last road game resulted in a 40-20 win. Over is now 6-1 in Chicago games. The Bears are going to keep scoring. The heavily favored Chargers are going to score even more. The end result? Another Chicago Over. ***Non-Conf. TOW

Both teams have been involved in some low-scoring games, keeping and bringing the total down. This represents the lowest total for a Viking game all season. Both are still seeing their games average greater than 43 though. Jordan Love has gone through some growing pains of late but a game against a mediocre Viking defense will give him a chance to get right. He'll have to be effective to keep pace with Cousins. The Vikings just threw for 378 yards (452 overall) against SF! Minnesota's last 3 visits to Lambeau have produced 58, 47 and 50 points. We'll take advantage of the low number and go with the Over. *NFC North TOY

This total could easily be lower. The Arizona offense has come down to earth, a lack of talent becoming evident.The Cardinals have scored 16, 20 and 9 points in their last three games. Seattle managed only 13 last week. The last two Seahawk games have both finished with 30 or less. When Arizona played here last season, the score was 19-9. The year before, it was 23-13. The Cardinals will again have trouble scoring and that will lead to this final score staying below the total. *NFC West TOY

Saints have been an under cash machine this season. As a result, we've got a really low total for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. It's important to understand that Jaguar games average 44 points. The Jax offense has gotten better and better. They scored 31 in the opener but then dropped all the way to 9 in their next game. After that they went from 9 to 17 to 23 to 25 to 37. It's fair to say that they're clicking on all cylinders. The Saints didn't score many last game but they did have well over 400 yards of offense. Also, they scored 34 in their previous game. They'll be able to move the ball and score on TNF. The Jaguars have played here twice in the past. Both those games finished with 65 points. This one might not produce that number of points but it'll produce more than enough to get us over this low total. *Thursday Night Total Of The Year

A total in the 50's gives us a lot of room to stay under and that's the way I'm going this Monday. These teams are both known more for their offenses but there is also plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers kept the Raiders to 17 points last game but only scored 24. Off a bad loss to SF, Dallas will want to improve on defense. Off only previous loss, the Cowboys gave up just 3 points in their next game. These teams last meet in 2021. The total was 55 but they finished with 37. The previous three meetings before that one had scores of 34, 51 and 37. That's an average of 39.75 for the past four meetings. This one won't reach 50. *MNF TOM

Low number. Much lower thanks to the Jones injury. Forget Jones for a minute, the Bills can score this many themselves. Don't believe me? Ask the Dolphins. The Bills put up 48 points against them. Before that, they scored 37 and 38 against the Commanders and Raiders. The Giants have allowed 24 or more in seven straight games, 30 or more in two of their last three. Heck, they're allowing an average of more than 30 per game. As mentioned, Daniel Jones is out. But is that really a bad thing? The Giants were 1-4 with Jones behind center. Tyrod Taylor is a capable veteran. Having started 43 games for the Bills, he'll have a chip on his shoulder when playing his former team. At the least, he'll help to light a spark. Buffalo will score big and the Giants will do "enough." This game goes Over! *NFL TOM

Some might say that all signs point to an under. Baltimore is off 3 straight unders. Tennessee is, too. Games across the pond are often different though. If you haven't noticed, these games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the only stadium designed specially for NFL games outside of North America, a tendency to be quite high-scoring. Last week's game here produced 45 points. The opposite has been the case in the games at Wembley Stadium. The last four Wembley games have all finished with 38 or less. The six games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium all finished with 43 or more. Both offenses are filled with talent and capable of more than they've shown. This will be on display, the final score going Over. *AFC TOW

They may not have Aaron Rodgers behind center but the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Their early season defensive stats are a bit skewed by the fact that three of their first four opponents have been the Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills. All three of those teams are top 10 scoring offenses. The Broncos are better defensively than they've shown. They turned the corner defense in the second half of last week's game. It was their defense which keyed the comeback. Last year's game had 25 points. The year before had 26. This game also goes Under. *AFC TOM

The Bears defense hasn't been good. Everyone knows that. The oddsmakers certainly do. Chicago's defensive struggles have rewarded us with an extra high total. Last year, these same teams played each other and the total was only 38.5. Remember how that game played out? It was a 12-7 final! Scoreless after the first quarter and 3-0 at halftime. Lots of kicking and poor red zone efficiency. Both teams ran the ball a lot. With both teams eager to clean up their defensive deficiencies, Thursday's game will take on a similar look and feel. Plenty of running will keep the clock ticking. When all is said and done, the final score will stay under the total. *NFC TOW

Neither of these teams has run the ball as effectively, or as regularly, as they'd like to. It's early though and we've still had a limited sample size. Its hard to run the ball when getting blown out. These are still a pair of clubs who want to run the ball and this should be a more competitive game. Saquon Barkley sounds doubtfut but the Giants still want to pound the rock. These teams combined for 40 last October, the Seahawks winning 27-13 at home. A look at the boxscore shows that yards did not come easily. The Giants had only 14 first downs and 225 total yards of offense. Seattle had 19 first downs and 277 total yards. That game fell below the total and this line is even higher. Go with the Under. *Total of Week.

Will Burrow play? My hunch is that he will. Either way, I still really like the under. Even with Burrow, the Cincinnati offense has been a mess. The Bengals rank dead last in the league, in terms of both points per game (13.5) and total yards. Fixing the problems against the Aaron Donald and the Rams won't be easy. (Remember the SB?) The Rams rank #6 in terms of yards allowed per game. The Bengals are better defensively than they've shown. Let's not forget that they allowed only 16.7 ppg last year. Only Dallas (16.5) allowed less. Points won't come easily for either team. Go with the Under! *MNF Total Of The Month

It's not a secret that the Falcons are going to feature a lot of running plays. They did so last year and they're doing so again this season. Running the ball with regularity keeps the clock moving. While the Falcons rank in the top 5 in rushing attempts per game, the Lions rank in the Top 10. Atlanta is running 35.5 times per game. Detroit is doing so 30.5 times. So, it's safe to assume that this game is going to see a lot of rushing. The Lions are off a high-scoring game. That reminded many of their previously poor defense and helped in providing a high total. Remember, that the Lions' opener saw them hold KC to only 20 points, a 21-20 final. This is actually a much improved defense from last year. The Falcons defense is playing well. Atlanta has allowed an average of only 17 ppg. Since last year, the Falcons have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine straight games. None of their last eight games have reached the 50 point mark and six of those finished with less than 40. This game will be low-scoring. *Sept. Total Of The Month

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go.  They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately.  They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week.  The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack.  While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB.  The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today.  Take this game to go under.

The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team.  A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time.  Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense.  The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier.  They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures.  The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage.  I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday.
There are issues with the Vikings defense as well.  They struggle to defend in the red zone, and are  a miserable 29th in yards and passing yards allowed, with a whopping 486/311 yards against last week.  Prescott has much to atone for after 2 picks last week, but the Cowboys' pass offense has improved since his return.  The Cowboys are also 8th in rushing yards and improving, and may have both RBs in action this week.  The Vikings gave up 175 yards rushing last week, along with their pass defense  woes. This game is too close to pick an outright winner, but I am confident in the total. Sunday's match-up will not be a defensive gem.  Take the total to go over.

The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards.  It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats.  The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was  terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season.  Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns.  Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans.
The Giants offense is very tough to get off the field at the best of times but should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground against the Texans.  Their defense is tough in the red zone and limits 3rd down conversions.  Both these teams struggle to put up points at the best of times.  Sunday could be a very slow march of a game.  Take the total to go under.

A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields.  Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date.  It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks.
The Patriots have put up points on offense, but have yet to face a good defense this season.  They have a pair of very good running backs, a top 5 O line and a middling pass attack under either QB. They may have some success in running against the Bears, but they will not have an easy time moving the ball in the air.  The Patriots have been good at staying on the field to date.  We'll see if that continues in week seven.  Both teams have been tough to put up points against, and I think that will continue on Monday.  Both teams will also run the ball; the Bears because they don't have a pass attack, and the Patriots to avoid Chicago's strength.
I don't see this game as the sure thing the odds would suggest.  Look for a slow game, on the ground, and a lower final score.  Go with the Bears and Patriots to go under.

Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven.  The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB.  The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos.  The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games.  Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed.   The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer.  It could be a tough game for him.  The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower.  Take the under on Sunday. 9*!

The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating.

The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week.

The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday.

The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date.

Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars.

Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over.

MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams.

We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday.

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Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks.

Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday.

The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry.

Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under.

The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself.

The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD.

The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week.

The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier.

It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*!

Looking at the Rams/Bengals matchup, with two top QBs and their wide variety of excellent receiving options, it is easy to imagine a high-scoring result. I am not seeing this result, and have held off to get the highest total available. I think this game is going under, and here is why.

The Rams defense has been successful at limiting points (18 avg. L3), rushing yards, and has improved recently in yards allowed in the air. They have limited opposing pass offenses to a short pass game, and have limited pass TDs. They are 7th overall in sacks. Burrow has been largely immune to pass pressure, but he won’t be as free and easy to wander vs the Rams’ formidable pass rush. Will they shut Burrow down? Unlikely. Will they slow him down? Very likely. One need only look back to the Bengals/Titans game when the Titans scored only 19 points with Burrow sacked an astounding 9 times. The Bengals may also be forced into more of a run situation on Sunday, slowing the game down. They have a very viable option in Mixon, but the Rams defense has been outright stingy vs the run.

Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run, but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had four sacks against Mahomes last week and adapted well in the second half to control him effectively. They’ve only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three games. Their QB pressure stats, other than actual sacks, are actually better than the Rams’. The Rams have essentially abandoned the run lately, banking on Stafford, but a hurried Stafford is not without peril. Could we also see more of a running game from Akers and the Rams as well?

That is my take on total. The over/under line has been pretty static, but hunt for the right number, and take this game to surprise a lot of people and go under.