The San Francisco Giants have lost six of eight on this current home stand, and they now find themselves in a heated battle with the Dodgers who trail by just a half game in the NL West. After splitting the first two games of this series versus St. Louis, the Giants appear to have the advantage heading into the rubber match.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Madison Bumgarner will get the call for the home team, and he's looking for his 10th win of the season. Bumgarner (9-5, 2.90 ERA) surrendered five runs on nine hits over six innings in a home loss to the Reds in his most recent start. He doesn't have good numbers at home this season, going 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA in eight starts. The Cardinals hand the ball to 22 year old Carlos Martinez, who comes out of the bullpen to make just his fourth start so far.

2. Home Cookin' - Martinez has been better at home, going  0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 17 appearances on the road.

3. X-Factor - Pablo Sandoval has hit 10 home runs and has 36 RBIs this season, seven of those homers and 22 of his RBIs have come at AT&T Park.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

David Price is rumored to be on the way out of Tampa Bay, so each time he takes the mound it could be his final start in a Rays uniform. He's scheduled to start Tuesday as the Rays take on the Yankees in Game 2 of this series in the Bronx. I don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this game, with a pair of top knotch pitchers facing off.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Price hasn't let the trade rumors affect his performance on the mound, he's coming off four consecutive starts going at least eight innings and striking out 10 or more. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuyroda, who has been very good of late. Kuroda (5-5, 4.23 ERA) has given the Yankees quality starts in four of his last five outings.

2. Bronx Bombers? - The nickname has been a suitable one over the years, but it doesn't accurately describe the Yankees this season. New York ranks in the bottom half in all major offensive categories.

3. X-Factor - Carlos Beltran has been bothered by a sore forearm, and he's hitting just .219 on the season. He's batting .167 lifetime versus Price.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Baltimore Orioles will host Texas in the opening game of a four game set at Camden Yards Monday. Texas is struggling, with just a pair of wins over it's last 11 games.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Joe Saunders will get the call for Texas, and he's been roughed up pretty bad lately. Saunders (0-4, 5.19 ERA) surrendered six runs on seven hits and five walks in just four innings, losing to the Tigers his last time out. The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed two runs on less in four of his last six start. Jimenez is still winless at home this season, but the Orioles won at home over the White Sox by a score of 5-4 in his last start, a no decision.

2. The Long Ball - The Orioles lead the major leagues with 42 home runs, 25 of those coming off the bat of Nelson Cruz. He's hit a pair of homers in his previous encounters with Saunders.

3. X-Factor - Adrian Beltre is hitting .400 in 20 career at bats versus Jimenez, and he's batting .385 with 15 RBIs over his last 20 games.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

We've seen a couple of high scoring tilts here in Miami in the first tow games of this series between the A's and the Fish, and there's every reason to expect another slugfest here at Marlins Park Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tommy Milone will go for the visitors, and he was lit up by the Red Sox in his last start. Milone (5-3, 3.89 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits through just five frames in a 7-6 loss to Boston. He's surrendered five home runs in his last four starts. Miami will counter with rookie Andy Heaney, making just his third big league start. The rookie was tagged for five runs on four hits and two walks through five innings in a loss to the Phillies his last time out.

2. Home Cookin' - Giancarlo Stanton is an absolute beat with the bat, leading the NL in home runs as well as RBIs. The majority of his success comes at home, where he's picked up 42 of his 60 RBIs.

3. Park Factor - We've seen seven of the last 11 games at Marlins Park go over the total.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Brewers bats exploded for nine runs last night, chasing Stephen Strasburh from the game after just four innings. Milwaukee will welcome the Colorado Rockies to town Thursday, and with two of baseball's best offenses, we can expect to see some fireworks.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rockies will send rookie Christian Friedrich into the fire here at Miller Park, and the 26 year old got hit hard in his season debut. Friedrich, allowed nine runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings of work in a 9-4 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta, who has surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five starts.

2. Offense - The Brewers rank 5th overall in runs scored, while the Rockies lead MLB in the categories of batting average, on base percentage as well as slugging percentage.

3. X-Factor - Peralta is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts versus the Rockies since 2011.

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies/Brewers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays won 2-of-3 at home versus the Yankees, and both victories were high scoring tilts. Hiroki Kuroda managed to quiet Toronto's bats last night, but we should expect to see more offense tonight, with the Jays hosting the White Sox in the first game of a four game series.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The White Sox will send relief pitcher Scott Carroll to the mound, making his sixth start of the season. He hasn't impressed, winless on the road with an ERA of 4.70 in five appearances. The Jays counter with J.A. Happ, who looks as though he's fallen apart. Happ allowed eight runs on seven hits and four walks over just four innings in an 11-1 loss to Cincinnati his last time out.

2. Heavy Hitters - These are two of the heaviest hitting teams in the majors, both boasting a slugging percentage above .400.

3. X-Factor - Jose Bautista has been resting a sore hamstring, but manager John Gibbons said he could come off the bench in last night's game if necessary. Expect to see Bautista at some point tonight.

Selection: This is a play on Chicago/Toronto to go OVER the total (10*)

Clayton Kershaw followed up his no-hitter by defeating the Royals in a 2-0 pitcher's duel at Kauffman Stadium last night. We can likely expect another low scoring affair in the series finale Wednesday, with Dan Haren starting opposite Royal's ace James Shields.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shields (8-3, 3.70 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over seven frames in a loss to Seattle in his last start. Prior to that he was undefeated, going 5-0 during an eight-game unbeaten streak. Dan Haren has been very solid for the Dodgers, and he has stellar numbers under the lights. The veteran is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts at night this season.

2. Royals Slumping Offense - Kansas City has lost five of it's last six overall, scoring a total of just eight runs in those six losses.

3. X-Factor - Yasiel Puig has cooled off at the plate, going just 2-for-18 on this road trip so far.

Selection: This is a play on the Dodgers/Royals to go UNDER the total.

The Marlins came up short in yesterday's series opener with the Mets, failing to score in a 1-0 ballgame. They look to bounce back in Game 2 with Henderson Alvarez on the hill, and the right-hander is undefeated in his last six starts. One of those wins was a complete game shutout win over Tampa.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - While Alvarez has been hot for the Fish, Matsuzaka has yet to lose for the Mets. He's allowed a total of one run on four hits over eight innings in his last three outings. He allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings in a win over Miami the last time he faced them, which was his only meeting with the Fish last year.

2. Mets Can't Hit - New York's lineup doesn't strike fear into opposing pitchers, ranking 24th overall in the majors in runs scored, while only the Padres hit for a lower average.

3. X-Factor - Alvarez has seen the total go under in each of his last four home starts.

Selection: This is a play on NYM/Miami to go UNDER the total (10*)

It was another slugfest at Chase Field last night, with the Brewers winning by a score of 7-5. Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in the series finale tonight, and we are likely to see another high scoring tilt between these two teams in this hitter's park.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Matt Garza will start for the Brewers, and he's struggled away from Miller Park. Garza (4-4, 4.17 ERA) was roughed up at home in his most recent start, giving up five runs on seven hits in loss to Cincinnati. He is just 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA on the road this season. Wade Miley will go for Arizona, and he's had a poor season personally, while the D'Backs staff ranks last in the majors.

2: Park Factor - Known to be a hitter's park, we've seen plenty of runs scored at Chase Field lately. These two teams have tallied 24 runs total in the first two games of this series.

3: X-Factor - The Brewers have been a good bet to go over, with the total going above the number at a rate of 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Brewers/D'Backs to go OVER the total (10*)

The Phillies were shutout in a 3-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday, and it's unlikely that they will fare much better on the road in Atlanta on Monday night. This team has already packed it in, going through the motions in another disastrous season. Already there are trade talks swirling the clubhouse, as the salary dump is inevitable.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Julio Teheran was roughed up in Colorado his last time out, but he should bounce back at home where he is 2-1 with a 1.24 ERA this season. He pitched a complete game shutout in his only previous meeting with Philly this year. The Phillies hand the ball to Cole Hamels, who is coming off his best start of the season so far. Let's not get too excited about a win over the Padres though.

2: Home Cookin' - The Phillies have lost five of their last six on the road, and the Braves have won seven of Teheran's last eight home starts.

3: Offense - The Braves rank 28th overall in the majors in runs scored, and Philly isn't much better ranking 24th.

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies/Braves to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Royals are red hot, winners of seven in a row. They scored 22 runs in a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend, but they have to face Tigers ace Justin Verlander here on Monday. With the Royals swinging the bats well, we could see a few runs scored here in Detroit tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Verlander (6-6, 4.61 ERA) was lit up by the White Sox, giving up seven runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings, losing his last start. It was the same story in his prior outing, giving up six runs on eight hits in a home loss to Toronto. Meanwhile, Jason Vargas is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Tigers this year.

2: Tigers Bullpen - Detroit relievers own the worst ERA in the major leagues at 4.83.

3: X-Factor - Salvador Perez hit a home run yesterday against the White Sox, and he's owned Verlander, hitting .444 with 10 RBIs in 27 career at bats.

Selection: This is a play on the Royals/Tigers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Mariners struggles at home continued on Friday, as Felix Hernandez tossed a gem, allowing a lone run on four hits over 8 1/3 innings, only to lose 1-0. Seattle will hope for more run support for their other ace, as Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Iwakuma (4-3, 2.79 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits through 7 1/3 frames in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees in his most recent outing. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over eight innings in a win over Texas earlier this season. The Rangers send Nick Martinez to the mound, and while he's struggled, he should get a boost from pitching to a poor offense in a pitcher's park.

2: Mariners Offense - Seattle is hitting just .235, the worst average in the American League. They have scored three runs or less in all five games on this current home stand.

3: X-Factor - Nick Martinez has been sharp in day games, with a record of 1-0, 2.79 ERA in four starts in the afternoon this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Rangers/Mariners UNDER (10*)

The Padres have lost four straight, and two of those losses were shutouts. San Diego will look to turn things around tonight with it's ace on the mound, but they'll need to get him some runs. I like the under here in New York with a pair of quality pitchers in park that doesn't produce a lot of runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Andrew Cashner (2-5, 2.13 ERA) tossed six scoreless frames, giving up just two hits in a win over the Nats in his most recent outing. He's seen the under trend at a rate of 7-2-1 over his last 10 starts. Veteran Bartolo Colon will go for the Mets, and he's 2-2, with a 2.20 ERA at home this season. His most recent home start saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

2. Offense - The Padres rank last in the majors in each and every offensive category. New York isn't much better, as only San Diego has a lower batting average than these Mets.

3. X-Factor - The Padres have played a lot of low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in 19 of their last 27 away from Petco.

Selection: This is a play on the Padres/Mets to go UNDER (10*)

The Orioles were on the wrong side of an 11-1 blowout at Camden Yards Sunday, and they'll have their hands full once again as they host the Red Sox in Game 1 of a new series at home on Monday. Given the scheduled starters in a this hitter's park, we should see another slugfest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bud Norris will be the starter for the O's, and he's allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. The Red Sox roughed him up pretty good already this year, as he surrendered four runs on five hits and two walks in a loss at Fenway. Jake Peavy has had his own struggles, and Boston has lost four of his last five starts, with the veteran allowing at least five runs in all four of those losses.

2: Park Factor - The over has trended at a rate of 6-2-2 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Camden Yards has a much lower score in 2014, after ranking 4th overall last year. Expect a major correction during the rest of the summer, with warmer air in Baltimore.

3: X-Factor - Big Papi won the game for the Red Sox with a three-run blast in Detroit last night. Ortiz is 3-for-9 with a home run against Norris.

Selection: This is a play on Boston/Baltimore Over (10*)

Washington was my free play yesterday and considering they won 7-0, I see no reason not to up the ante tonight.  Not only do I like the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg to win this game, but I expect it to go Over as well.  Last night's game stayed Under by one-half run, but the number is lower.  I don't think we'll need much help from the Phillies offense either. Philadelphia has the worst record in the National League since May 4th at 9-18 and has lost five of its last six after a bad weekend experience at home vs. the Mets.  Manager Ryne Sandberg hasn't impressed me much at all.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1.  AJ Burnett - Things don't look too good for the Phillies starter in this matchup, considering a 6.30 ERA his last five starts.  He had six walks and gave up five runs in his last start and has allowed 24 runs in his last 30 innings of work.   Washington is averaging 6.5 runs/game its last four and that's even after being shutout on Sunday.

2.   Return of Zimmerman - Remember this key from yesterday's free play?  Zimmerman had missed almost two months with a thumb injury, but returned by going 2 for 4 with a run batted in.  He's likely to be in left field again tonight, but it's at the plate where his return makes the biggest difference.  In 10 games, Zimmerman was batting .364 and had two homers before the injury.

3. X-Factor -  Over Philadelphia's last nine games, only once has there been less than seven total runs scored.  

Selection:  The play is on Over Philadelphia-Washington (10*)

I'm taking the Over tonight as St. Louis looks to get something going offensively against in-state foe Kansas City.  The Cardinals were shutout for a second straight game Monday (Sunday by the Giants) as the Royals came in and took the opener 6-0 thanks in large part to a quality start from left-handed Danny Duffy.   Thankfully for the home team they are a lot more prolific when facing righties, so even thought its James Shields pitching tonight for the visitors, St. Louis should put some runs on the board.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.   Shields - Surprisingly, the Over is 7-1 his last eight starts.   Part of that is because he's been the only Royals pitcher to consistently get good run support, but also he did give up six runs in his last start, a season-high.  Over his last three starts, he's allowed a total of 13 runs, leading to a 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP.

2.  Jaime Garcia - Similarly, the Over is 3-0 in starts made by the pitcher who will be on the mound tonight for St. Louis.  He's already allowed four home runs.  The Cardinals are also 17-11-1 Over at home this season.

3.   X-Factor -  Keep an eye on the Royals base-stealing prowess.  They are the American League leaders in that category with 48 after leading all of baseball last year with 153.   They have 20 stolen bases in the last 14 games alone.  The obvious reason to keep an eye on this is because stolen bases lead to more runners getting in scoring position.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Kansas City-St. Louis (10*)

I'm taking the Over in tonight's Pittsburgh at San Diego game.  Fun fact:  This is the only regularly scheduled National League game on the slate for Monday.   The Over worked for me last night in the Pirates' 5-3 win over the Dodgers as I was lucky the home team tacked on what was essentially a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth inning.  Thus, I'll come back and play things the same way here.  The Padres have a major question mark going today in starter Tim Stauffer.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Stauffer - This will be his third start.  After the first one probably couldn't have gone any better, the last one definitely couldn't have been any worse as he allowed seven runs while failing to make it out of the first inning.   Tonight's performance should end up somewhere in the middle, but that should still be enough to allow the game to go Over.  Both previous starts, an 11-1 win and a 12-6 loss, easily went Over.

2.  Morton on the Road - The Pirates will go with Charlie Morton as their starter tonight.  He simply is not very good on the road.   He's winless this year when not pitching an PNC Park and has allowed 20 runs in his last 30 innings pitched away from home.  

3. X-Factor - Before running into Chris Sale yesterday, San Diego had scored 23 runs and had 52 hits its previous five games. For Pittsburgh, scoring five times in a game where the Dodgers started Clayton Kershaw is pretty impressive as well.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-San Diego (10*)

Admittedly, taking an Over when Zack Greinke is pitching seems a little bit odd.  After all, he's gone 23 straight starts without allowing more than three runs.  But prior to his last start, he hadn't allowed more than two in 22 straight starts, so there's always a first time for everything.  Also, even if he does give up only 2-3 runs here, you have to think Pirates starter Edinson Volquez will give up a lot more to a Dodgers offense that scored 12 runs in a big win yesterday.   

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  An Over Pitcher - Although Greinke's numbers are impressive, you might be surprised to learn that the Over is actually 7-4 in his 11 starts this season.   The Over has cashed in his last two starts.   He typically gets pretty good run support and remember that he's unlikely to go the distance (only once has he pitched 8 full innings), which means the bullpen could always give up additional runs.

2. Volquez -  Interestingly, the Under is actually 8-2 for him in 10 starts.  But this is also because the total is almost always higher than it is here.  There have been three times where he's allowed five runs or more.  He has a 5.40 ERA on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Pittsburgh had 11 hits yesterday, so it's not as if they were quiet at the plate.  They simply failed to come through when they had runners in scoring position.  Consider that the Dodgers only had three more hits, but scored 10 more runs.  The scoring is likely to be more balanced tonight.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-LA Dodgers (10*)

While I like the Under in Kansas City-Toronto, I like the Over for Baltimore-Houston tonight.  The Astros come back home on their longest win streak of the season as they taken five in a row, including a sweep of the Royals in Kansas City.   They have a number of hot hitters in their lineup, which should match up well this weekend against a struggling Orioles starting rotation that sends out Ubaldo Jimenez for the series opener.  For Houston, Brad Peacock isn't likely to be much better as his numbers are almost identical and he's won just once in eight starts.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hot Houston Hitting -  Two players bear mentioning here, the first being George Springer, a rookie who has hit six home runs in his last six games and is batting .405 the last 10 games.  Jose Altuve is batting .400 over his last 20 games, reaching base safely in 19 of them.  The team has scored 34 times while collecting 61 hits during its five-game win streak.  Three times they have scored nine runs on their own.

2. Weak Starting Pitching - Baltimore's starting rotation has been bad all around the last 10 games with an 8.06 ERA. Only once during that time has a starter gone more than six innings.  It wasn't Jimenez, who lasted just four in his last start and gave up five runs in a 9-0 loss to Cleveland.  He has allowed at least four runs six times already this season.  For Houston, Peacock has a 4.58 ERA and 1.556 WHIP and has pitched worse at home than on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Baltimore has a hot hitter of its own right now in Nelson Cruz, who leads MLB in home runs with 19 for the year and he's slugging a ridiculous 1.000 the last 14 games.

Selection:   The play is Over Baltimore-Houston (10*)

I like the Under in Thursday's opener between Kansas City and Toronto.  These have certainly been two clubs trending in opposite directions of late.  The Royals inability to find any kind of consistent hitting resulted in them getting swept at home by Houston.  Overall, the team has lost five of six.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won nine in a row to take control in the American League East.   We have two quality starting pitchers on the mound tonight - James Shields for Kansas City and RA Dickey for Toronto - and they should keep the scoring down.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Dickey vs. KC - The knuckleballer's overall numbers aren't that spectacular, but facing this weak-hitting Royals lineup should definitely be to his benefit.  The Royals have scored three runs or less in four straight and are last in MLB in home runs and slugging percentage.  Dickey has also gotten better as the season has progressed.  In his last start, his best of the year, he allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in 8 1/3 innings of work.  He's now 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA his last six starts.

2.  Shields - Going back to his time in Tampa Bay, the Royals ace has been very good against Toronto throughout his career.  In his last eight starts against them, he's 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA.   No other pitcher with at least five starts since 2011 against the Blue Jays has a better earned run average.  Twice he's gone the distance here at Rogers Centre.  He's allowed two earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season.

3. X-Factor - These two starters faced off against one another last year and the result was a 3-2 final.  Five of the six games played between these two teams went Under in 2013.

Selection:  The play is Under Kansas City-Toronto (10*)

I like the Under on Sunday Night Baseball as we should get a pitchers duel between Adam Wainwright for St. Louis and Mike Leake for Cincinnati.  Both come in having pitched very well all season long, Wainwright in particular.  After the first two games of this series both found a way to sneak Over the total, this one shouldn't feature many runs.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Wainwright - He is coming off a career best outing where he allowed only one hit in a complete game effort.   His 1.85 ERA ranks right near the top of the National League and he's allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts this year.  Over his last three starts, he has a 1.17 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP.  Of the 10 times he's pitched this season, the opponent has not scored a single run in five of those games!

2.  Leake -  Despite being winless over his last six starts, it's not like he's pitched poorly.  His ERA is 2.89 going back to April 15th and over his last four starts, it's 1.89.  He's allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five have stayed Under the total.

3.  X-Factor -  The reason for Leake not having more victories is the fact Cincinnati never seems to score for him.  In each of his last five starts, they've failed to score more than four runs for the entire game.

Selection:  The play is Under St. Louis-Cincinnati (10*)

I like the Over tonight as the Mets and Dodgers open this three-game series.  While the home side has been struggling big time at the plate and is going against Josh Beckett, the total is just too low for a pair of teams that more often than not are capable of giving up a lot of runs.  Twice in the last four games, the Dodgers have allowed 13 or more runs.   The Mets are 5-2-1 Over the last eight games despite their lack of hitting.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Raul Montero  -  In his first start, Montero allowed two home runs, which cost him in a 4-0 loss to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees.  There were reports that he was tipping his pitches, which isn't a good sign going forward, especially against a Top 10 offense like the Dodgers.

2.   Dodgers When Favored - When favored on the money line, the Dodgers are 21-12-1 Over this season.

3. X-Factor -   When you get past Beckett, you have a Dodgers' bullpen that has been very poor on the road this season.  They have a 5.47 ERA and 1.740 WHIP.   They've blown three saves in 11 chances and are allowing more than two runs per appearance.   Brian Wilson should be singled out for specific blame.

Selection:   The play is Over Los Angeles-New York (10*)

This is an Over play for Mets-Nationals this afternoon.  Yesterday's game was a 5-2 final in favor of Washington, so we'll need just one more run today to make this a winning bet.  Fortunately, I don't think Saturday's starting pitching matchup is as strong, plus at least the Mets were able to put runs on the board yesterday.  Prior to scoring two times in the top of the fifth, they had gone 22 consecutive innings without a runner crossing the plate.  Overall, it was their ninth straight loss to Washington.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Bartolo Colon - Making the Mets' job even tougher today is the fact they have Colon on the hill.  In eight starts, his ERA is 5.84 and things have only progressively gotten worse.  He's allowed seven runs in two of his last three starts, including the last one, which was against the Yankees.  He's already given up eight home runs this season, including a grand slam vs. the Yankees.  All of last year, Colon allowed just 14 home runs.

2.  Dominance over the Mets - As I mentioned before, Washington has now won nine in a row vs. the Mets.  They have scored 58 runs in those nine wins, which works out to roughly 6.5 per game.  All we need is SOMETHING from the Mets in this game in order for the Over to cash.

3.  X-Factor - Gio Gonzalez has not looked good his last four starts with a 5.16 ERA.  He lasted only 4 1/3 in his last start, giving up seven runs and nine hits.

Selection:  The play is Over New York-Washington (10*)

I like the Over this afternoon as Atlanta takes on St. Louis.  Yesterday's game was 5-2 in favor of the Cardinals and we'll need one more run scored today to make this a winning bet.  Given the way the Braves have been scoring, or should I say haven't been scoring, lately, that run would likely need to come from the home team.   I think they'll have their chances against Atlanta starter Harang, who was shelled the last time he started on the road.  Yesterday saw them score five runs, the first time since August of last year that Ervin Santana had allowed that many.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Control Issues -  The Cardinals will go with Shelby Miller in this game and if there has been one problem with him all year, it's been walking batters.  In every start this year, but one, he has walked at least three batters.  Ironically, that one start was against Harang and Atlanta.  But the fact remains that Miller's walk rate of 5.4 per nine innings remains the worst in all of baseball.  Overall, he has 27 BB's in 8 starts.   That's a big reason for his poor WHIP and the Braves should have some added opportunities for baserunners in this game.

2.  Harang On the Road - His last start outside of Turner Field was a disaster as he allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in less than five innings of work.  He does not have a strong history against the Cardinals with his 14 career losses the most against any one opponent.

3. X-Factor -   Miller is typically not lasting very long in his starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings.  That's a problem for many reasons, one of them that St. Louis' bullpen has an ERA north of 4.00.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Atlanta-St. Louis (10*)

I like the Under tonight as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks renew pleasantries.  While its true that Arizona's pitching staff has stunk most of the year, they've gotten substantially better after a dreadful April and the Dodgers just aren't hitting much right now.   Los Angeles will rely on Zack Greinke, who of course is very good and I expect him to have little difficulty in facing this Diamondbacks' lineup.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Greinke -  Through eight starts, he has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP.   The most runs he's allowed in any start is two.  That obviously gives us alot to work with here.  If we go back to the end of last season, he has gone 20 consecutive starts where he's allowed three runs or less.  That's a record in the post "dead ball" era.   Greinke has started twice against Arizona this year, giving up just 2 runs in more than 11 innings of work and the last five times he's faced them have seen the Diamonbacks hit just .188 as Greinke's ERA is 1.72.   

2.  Arizona Offense - Scoring just four runs the last two games, its not like the Diamonbacks are doing much at the plate recently.  The Under has cashed in 4 of their last 5 games.

3.  X-Factor -  This will be the 9th meeting of the year between these National League West rivals.   Arizona has lost all five at home and overall the Dodgers' starting rotation has gone 6-0, posting a 1.50 ERA.

Selection:  This is a Under play on Los Angeles-Arizona (10*)

The Mets and Yankees went Over in yesterday's opener with the road team winning 9-7.  Regardless of who wins tonight, I'll be anticipating a similar score as the Mets are hitting all of a sudden and the Yankees have collected double digit hits in four of their last five games as well.   The Mets have now gone Over in three straight games while the Yankees have done them two better at five straight.  Only one of those didn't see at least nine total runs scored.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Mets' Heating Up at the Plate - In their last two games, the Mets have collected 30 hits, including a season-high 16 on Sunday.  Five of those were home runs - four of them coming last night - and another five were doubles.  They shouldn't have too much to worry about tonight going up against Vidal Nuno, who has a 7.00 ERA in two home starts.

2.  Yankees Too - The Bronx Bombers have scored no fewer than four runs in any of their last six.  They are averaging 5.0 the last seven.  Mets' starter Zach Wheeler comes in with a 5.06 ERA in four road starts this season, a number that came down after his last start despite it being a loss.   

3. X-Factor -   The Mets have scored 21 runs total in their last three games at Yankees Stadium.  

Selection:  This is an Over play on Mets-Yankees (10*)

These teams have combined to score eight and nine runs respectively in the first two games of this series and I'll call for even more scoring as they finish things up at Miller Park this afternoon.  Given the Brewers surprising start, it's pretty amazing to find that they are only scoring 3.2 runs/game at home with a .226 batting average.  Then again, they do have a better record on the road.   However, they were able to pound out 10 hits in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, who have now gone Over in three straight games.  Take the Over here too.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - Today's starting pitcher from the Brewers seems to think he's better than he actually is.  Over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 5.62.  That has a lot to do with allowing five runs in just three innings at St. Louis on April 30th.  He's been much better at home this year, but his career numbers vs. the Yankees are not very good.  Before tossing a quality start against them last year, he had an ERA of 4.78 his previous nine times facing the Pinstripes.

2.  David Phelps -  The Yankees started was better than expected filling in for the suspended Michael Pineda against the Angels on Monday.  But as a starter his ERA is 4.28 lifetime, so I wouldn't be counting on a similar performance today.

3.  X-Factor -  On the road, the Yankees allow 4.6 runs/game.  This has a lot to do with a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA away from home.

Selection:  This is an Over play on New York-Milwaukee (10*)

The Tigers are a hot team right now, winners of seven straight to be exact, and scored 11 runs yesterday in a rout of the Houston Astros.  I don't see any reason why once again they can't send this game Over the total again by themselves.  (I'd like to take Detroit to win this game obviously, but with the money line being so high, the risk doesn't outweigh the reward).   Astros starter Brad Peacock has a penchant for giving up unearned runs due to the highest walk rate per nine innings among qualifying pitchers.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Tigers' Offensive Surge - Since April 29th, the team is averaging a strong 6.9 runs/game. They've scored eight or more runs in four of the last five games, peaking with yesterday's output where they had 18 hits.  They've recorded at least 12 hits in four of the last five games as well.   Miguel Cabrera has led the way with a .396 batting average and 1.041 OPS the last 12 games following an uncharacteristic slow start to the season.  

2.  Astros Pitching - Bad enough is the fact Peacock is walking an average of seven batters per nine innings.   But the Houston bullpen is also a mess right now with a MLB worst 6.24 ERA having allowed 15 runs over its last 11 innings of work.  

3. X-Factor -  The Tigers have averaged greater than seven runs/game against the Astros since Houston became an American League team.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Houston-Detroit (10*).

This likely will not end up being a pleasant series for an already beleaguered Arizona pitching staff which has given up the most runs in all of baseball.  The Diamondbacks got a bit of a reprieve over the weekend when they faced off against the worst offensive team in all of baseball, the San Diego Padres.  But the league leading Brewers will take no mercy on them.  After scoring three runs or less in five straight games, Milwaukee should get its offense back on track.  Arizona should also be able to score some runs tonight, thus I look for the game to go Over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Matt Garza - The Brewers' starting pitcher recently claimed that playing for the Cubs cost him about 30 wins.  That's laughable and I wonder what excuse(s) he will start coming up with now that he's 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA this year for a first place team.  He allowed five runs in three innings in his last start at St. Louis. He's now allowed at least four runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.

2.  Mike Bolsinger - I have little confidence in either of tonight's starters as for Arizona we have Bolsinger, who has twice allowed four or more runs while going five innings or less in just three starts.   His ERA and WHIP is even worse than that of Garza.

3. X-Factor:  Because of the woeful pitching, Arizona is 20-11-3 Over in all games this season.

Selection:    This is an Over play on Arizona-Milwaukee (10*).

Thanks to the bullpen, the Dodgers lost yesterday's series opener to the Giants, 3-2 in 12 innings.  Though there wasn't much scoring, both teams had 12 hits.  So I'm going to call for a much higher scoring affair Tuesday night.  Both starting pitchers come in with earned run averages above 8.00.  Three times last night these teams left the bases loaded.  The Giants have one of the better offenses in the National League (5.1 runs/game) and have been a big winner for Over bettors so far this season.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Starter Struggles -  The Giants are going with Ryan Vogelsong this evening.  There was some minor improvement in his second start of the season, but that's only because he was so bad in the first and that was against the Dodgers.  Vogelsong lasted only four innings that time out and gave up two home runs.  He lasted one more inning against Arizona on Thursday, but again gave up four runs on seven hits.  His ERA is 8.00 and his WHIP is 1.889.  LA's starter Paul Maholm has made just one start, and it was against San Francisco. It didn't go well as he allowed five runs over 4 1/3 innings.

2.  Maholm at AT&T - San Francisco has not been one of Maholm's favorite places to pitch. He's 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA in six career starts here.  

3.  X-Factor - The Giants have gone Over in 11 of 14 games this season.  While they've gone Under in two of their past three, they have yet to go Under in back to back games all season.  Look for that trend to continue.  

Selection:  This is an Over play for LA Dodgers-SF Giants (10*).

After allowing six or more runs in six of seven games, Twins pitching made a major rebound over the weekend against Kansas City, but I don't look for that to last.  Toronto's lineup facing Phil Hughes could put this game over on its own, but when you also factor in the fact Minnesota scored 21 runs themselves in the three games vs. the Royals, you get the feeling that we could have a game similar to yesterday's Pirates-Reds slugfest (hopefully minus the rain).   Go with the Over in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hughes - It has not been a good start for him in Minnesota.  He has failed to last longer than five innings in either of his two outings and both times allowed four runs.  Both of those games went way Over the total too as there 30 combined runs have been scored.  Having a career ERA north of 5.00 vs. Toronto doesn't help either.  Look for Hughes to give up plenty of runs again tonight.  

2. Plenty of Ammo  - Toronto had season highs in runs (11) and hits (17) in their last game as they took the series from Baltimore.  Minnesota is actually #4 in all of baseball right now as they've scored 67 times, but they are still barely outscoring opponents, 5.6 to 5.3 per game.  With an average of over 10 runs scored in their games, Over is the way to go with the Twins.

3. X-Factor -  While he missed much of 2013 due to injury, Brandon Morrow comes into this game on an incredible Over streak.  His last nine starts have all gone Over with at least nine runs scored in every game.   The average number of runs scored in those contests is 12.5!

Selection:    This is an Over play on Toronto-Minnesota (10*)