At 7:30pm Et, my Flea-Flicker selection is on Ohio State vs Texas Under. We were treated to a terrific game last night and this should be another good one. These are 2 great defenses but this total is much higher than last night's total. The Buckeyes allow 244.6 yards per game, best in the entire country. The Longhorns allow 277.9 yards per game, third best in the country. Ohio State allows 12.1 points per game, #1 in the nation. Texas concedes 14.5 points per game, 4th best in the nation. Last night's game saw 31 points in the 4th quarter but still would have finished below this high total. They are unlikely to score 31 points in the 4th quarter again. There were only 4 games this season when the Longhorns weren't favored by double-digits. All 4 of those games finished with 45 or fewer points. Play on the under.

At 7:30pm Et, my NCAAF Total Of The Week is on Notre Dame vs Penn State Over. These defenses are good but this total is still too low. These offenses can't be stopped, even by good defenses. Penn State has scored more than 30 points in each of its last 4 games. Notre Dame scored 23 against Georgia but probably could have scored more if the Bulldogs had forced it to do so. The Fighting Irish average 37.7 points per game. The Nittany Lions average 33.7. Both teams are going to trade points and both will score more than 20. The winner is likely to top 30. That'll get the final score to finish above the low total. Play on the over.

My January Bowl Total Of The Month is on Notre Dame vs Georgia Over. Let me start by saying that these defenses are both really good. Those defenses are a big part of why these teams are where they are right now. Guess what? The offenses are both also really good! Since that stinker against Northern Illinois in early September, the Fighting Irish have scored at least 27 points in every game. Over that 11-game period they averaged 45.24 points! Before the Indiana game, they'd gone over the 30-point mark in 8 straight games. Before its lower-scoring SEC Title game against Texas, the Bulldogs had scored 44, 59 and 31 in their previous 3 games. Stockton has had plenty of time to prepare and he adds a different element to the offense. Both teams are going to score more than 20 and this classic will finish over the low total.

At 3:00pm ET, my Bowl Total Of The Year is on South Carolina vs Illinois Over. The South Carolina Gamecocks are a big favorite for their New Year's Eve game against Illinois. The Gamecocks are going to need to score a lot of points in order to win, let alone cover. It should be pointed out that South Carolina's Kyle Kennard is out. Considering he won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the top defensive player in college football, that's a big hit to the Gamecocks defense. The Illini closed out the regular season by scoring 38 points in each of their final 3 games. Scores were 38-28, 38-31 and 38-16. The last time that South Carolina was a favorite, it scored 56 points. The last time that the Gamecocks were favored in the -7 to -14 range, they scored 34. Four of the past 6 Citrus Bowls have finished with more than 50 points. This one will too! Play on the Over.

At 11:00am ET, my Early Riser is on Connecticut vs North Carolina Under. The Tar Heels closed the season on a down note but they still were 7-5 to the under on the year. This sets up well for another under as the Huskies are a solid defensive team which runs the ball a lot. The Huskies will be playing their 4th ACC opponent. During the season, they faced Duke, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Two of those 3 games finished with 47 or less and all 3 finished with 55 or less. Previous Fenway Bowls have been low-scoring. As a matter of fact, they both finished in the 30s. This will be another low-scoring game. Play on the under.

At 10:30pm ET, my Bowl Total Of The Week is on Texas A&M vs USC Under. The Trojans are thought of as a high-scoring team which doesn't play defense. Those days are mostly done though. Before getting beaten by Notre Dame, the Trojans were off a 19-13 win over UCLA. Earlier this season, the defense recorded a shutout. The USC defense is going to have to step up as the offense is missing some key contributors. Starting wide receivers Duce Robinson, Kyron Hudson and Zachariah Branch all entered the transfer portal, along with change-of-pace running back Quinten Joyner. Running back Woody Marks and center Jonah Monheim are both out. The Aggies scored only 7 points in their last game but they also held Texas to just 17. They held 10 of their 12 opponents to 24 or fewer points. Play on the under. The last 3 LV Bowls had combined scores of 33, 33 and 21. Play on the under.

At 2pm ET, my Totals Club selection is on Pittsburgh/Toledo Over the total. The Panthers closed out their regular season with a 33-24 loss to Boston College. They were very short-handed offensively for that game. Most teams in the bowls have less starters but Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi said this: "I would imagine on the 26th we're going to be a heck of a lot healthier than we were coming out of that BC game. I promise you that." Toledo has the best passing attack in the MAC Conference. They used to play the Motor City Bowl here but its been the Quick Lane Bowl since 2013. This year, with the Quick Lane sponsorship ending, its the GameAbove Sports Bowl. Six of 9 Quick Lane Bowls finished with at least 50 points and the first GameAbove Sports Bowl will do the same. Play on the over.

At 11:00am ET, my Early Riser is on Coastal Carolina vs UTSA Under. Utsa is such a large favorite, despite the game being played in South Carolina, due to Coastal Carolina being hit so hard by opt outs and transfers. The Chanticleers are down to their 3rd string QB. Coach Beck joked to reporters: "and then after this meeting, I'm taking all of you outside for tryouts." Given the QB situation, the Chanticleers will be running the ball a lot. The Chanticleers are also going to need their defense to be at its best. For UTSA, defensive star Brandon Brown is back to lead his unit. Brown, who declared for the NFL draft but is still playing, said this: "I know people consider not playing, but it didn't even cross my mind. Some people may not want you to play, but I always wanted to play for my brothers. That's who I came in with, and that's who I want to finish with." Brown and Roadrunners will make scoring difficult for the undermanned Chanticleers and keep the final score below the total. Play on the under.

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on SMU vs Penn State Under. The first game of the 12-team format saw Notre Dame deliver a dominant defensive effort in defeating Indiana. The second game of the playoff features another top defensive team in Penn State. Even after getting lit up by Oregon, the Nittany Lions are still a top 10 in terms of yards and points allowed. They will be looking to bounce back with a better defensive performance. Similarly, SMU gave up some early points to Clemson last game which led to a shootout. The Mustangs are better defensively than that score suggests though, as they held their previous 2 opponents to 7 and 6 points and the 34 was the most they'd conceded since back in September. The high scores in the last games have led to a very big o/u number. Too big! Play on the under.

At 9:00pm Et, my Bowl Total Of the Week is on California vs UNLV Over. The LA Bowl has a history of matching teams from conferences known for their offensive firepower. Last year's teams, UCLA and Boise, combined for 57 points. It's no longer Mountain West versus Pac-12 but its still Mountain West versus the Pac-12 "Legacy Schools," those are the 10 schools which departed the Pac-12. UNLV lost its coach but their interim coach for this game (Del Alexander) was a former receiver who was quoted as saying: "Make sure the guys have fun. Make sure they're locked in on the details for the situations, and then bring it all together in the end." Cal's starting QB won't play but the Bears are still going to have success moving the ball. On defense, Cal allowed 33 or more points in 3 of its final 4 games. Eight of the Rebels last 10 games have finished with at least 52 points. The total has come down, providing value. Play on the over

At 9:00pm ET, my Touchdown Club selection is on South Alabama vs Western Michigan Over. The Jaguars can really score. They scored 30 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games, averaging 34.6. That's right in line with what they've done (34.8 ppg) all season. Earlier in the year, they scored 78 in a game. Offense isn't a problem but defense often is. The Jaguars allowed 45 points last game, the third time they've conceded more than 40 in a game. The Broncos played some lower scoring games down the stretch but they have scored 45 or more on 4 separate occasions. Likewise, they've conceded more than 40 on 4 separate occasions. These 2 coaches were both offensive assistants together for Nick Saban back in 2007. (Major Applewhite was Alabama's offensive coordinator/QB coach and Lance Taylor was an offensive graduate assistant for Saban.) They will have their offenses ready to go. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points and the bowl season to kick off with a shootout. Play on the over.

At 3:00 PM ET my rivarly romp is on Navy vs Army Under. The offenses were better this season but Army/Navy games are still all about the defense! The long-running under streak between these teams came to an end a couple of years ago but that was only due to the o/u lines getting so low. Games have continued to be low-scoring, hard-hitting smash mouth affairs. Both teams are going to run the ball and that's going to keep the clock moving. Both teams are also going to take great pride in trying to stop the other team from being able to run. Army just held Tulane to 14 points and the Green Wave had scored 45, 34, 52 and 24 thier previous 4 games. That same Tulane team shut out Navy, for what its worth. The Midshipmen have scored 14 or less in 3 of their last 5. On defense, Navy has allowed 20 or fewer points in 6 of its last 10. The last 10 meetings have all finished with 38 or less. Nothing changes this year! Go with the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my Conference Championship Total Of The Year is on Penn State vs Oregon under. Both teams were 7-5 to the under in the regular season. Oregon gave up 21 last game but has allowed just 78 points its last 6 games, an average of only 13 per game. Penn State gave up a mere 7 points last game and has conceded only 81 its last 6 games, just slightly more than Oregon. This is only the 2nd time all season that the Nittany Lions were underdogs. The first was their game against Ohio State. It had a total of 47 and finished with only 33 points. Last year's Big Ten title game finished with only 26 points. Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my Total of the Year is on Notre Dame/Army under. Before I was even born, this used to be the biggest game of the year, Army versus Notre Dame from Yankee Stadium! They once had a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup, the second “Game of the Century” of the post World War II era. It ended in a 0-0 tie! They'll get more points than that today but defense will still rule the day. Notre Dame allowed only 15.9 points per game last season and 276 yards. The Irish returned 9 starters from that unit and have picked up right where they left off. Notre Dame is allowing only 11.4 points per game and has allowed 14 or fewer points in five straight games! Only 2 teams are allowing fewer points per game than the Irish and one of them happens to be Army! The Black Knights are conceding only 10.3 points per game, tied with Ohio State for the best in the nation. Both teams rank in the top 6 for yards allowed per game. Enjoy the game and go with the under!

At 7:30pm ET, my MAC Total Of The Week is on Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Under 57. I've had some success with unders in MAC totals, stating the following: "In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone." This is another MAC total which is feel is too high. I said this about CMU last week: The Central Michigan offense is struggling right now. The Chippewas scored 13 points last game and 7 points in their last road game. They went out and scored 10 points. That's 30 in their last 3 games combined. Western Michigan wasn't much better in its last game. The Broncos scored only 13. The Broncos last visit here had a total of 50 and the final score was 12-10. With both offenses off a game where they trouble scoring this will be another defensive game. Play on the under.

At 8:00pm ET, my ACC Total Of the Year is on Wake Forest/UNC over. Games between these ACC rivals tend to be high-scoring. With both these offenses clicking, that'll be the case again Saturday. North Carolina has scored 35, 41 and 34 points its last 3 games. The Tar Heels have now scored 34 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games, 20 or more in all 8 of those. Wake Forest is off an 82-point game against California, losing 46-36 and giving up 500 yards of offense. The past 3 meetings between these teams had scores of 70, 113 and 112. Very little defense was played in those games. This will be another fast-paced track meeting that finishes over the total. Play on the over.

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Navy/Tulane under. These defenses are both playing well and are under-rated. Tulane has allowed 6 and 3 points it last 2 games. The Green Wave have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. Four of those teams, they held to 10 or less. Navy just kept USF to 7 points last week. The Bulls had scored 44 and 35 their previous 2 games! The Midshipmen have now conceded 18 or fewer points in 4 of their last 6 games. On offense, Navy has scored 14 or less in 2 of 3 games. With how well the defenses are currently playing, this total is too high. Go with the under.

At 10:15pm ET, my Friday Flea-Flicker is on Houston vs Arizona Over. Here we have an Arizona team which allowed 56 points in its last game and the total is set in the 40s. Value with the over! The Wildcats combined for 68 last game and their previous game had 57. Four of their last 5 games have reached the 50 mark. The Cougars have played 2 road games since the start of October and those games produced 56 and 49 points. Last meeting, back in 2018, finished with 63. For this meeting, we've got a Houston offense which has been better since making a QB change 4 games ago up against an Arizona defense missing some of its best players. We've got a desperate Arizona team which scored 26 in its last game. This has all the ingredients necessary to get over the low total. Play on the over.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Total Of the Year is on Central Michigan/Toledo under. In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone. We saw last week's We saw 3 of the last week's 4 midweek MAC games finish with 48 or fewer points. This one will also stay below the 50 mark. The Central Michigan offense is struggling right now. The Chippewas scored 13 points last game and 7 points in their last road game. Toledo is off a high-scoring 57-point game against Eastern Michigan. That game was still at 28 into the 4th quarter though and then 31 points were scored in the final 12 minutes. That was because it was a competitive (29-28 final) game. This one isn't likely to be as close and the scoring won't go wild in the 4th quarter the same way. Four of Toledo's last 6 games have still finished with 50 or less. Three of the past 4 h2h meetings have stayed below the 50 mark. Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my SEC Total Of The Year is on Alabama/LSU under. These teams have played pretty high-scoring games against each other the past couple of seasons. This one, being billed as an "elimination game," will be more like 2021. Alabama won 20-14 that year. Alabama posted a shutout last game. It was a 13-0 game at halftime and finished 34-0. Missouri managed only 239 yards. Pretty good when you think about Missouri averaging more than 31 ppg before that. Playing their second straight on the road, the Tigers lost 23-23 last week. Prior to that, they'd played 4 straight unders. Their previous game, they allowed only 10 points. In going 4-0 at home, they've held all 4 visiting teams to 26 or fewer points and to an average of 18.5. The LSU offense rushed for only 24 yards on 23 carries last game and QB Garrett Nussmeier was intercepted 3x in the second half. Coach Kelly said of his QB: "Garrett can't be the guy who feels like he's got to do everything, and part of that has to come from Garrett. A little bit comes from Garrett, a little bit comes from play-calling, a little bit comes from the ability to commit to more balance in the running game. That means blocking better and I don't just mean the five linemen. It's an all-in thing. It's not just one guy giving Garrett more assistance. Everybody's got to be involved in that." More blocking and more running is going to translate to less scoring. Each of Alabama's last 2 games have finished with 41 or less. Play on the Under.

At 9:00pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Week is on UCLA vs Iowa Under. Iowa has been an over team this year. Even so, the Hawkeyes are still a running team which plays defense. They have held their last 2 opponents to 14 or less. Now the Hawkeyes face a UCLA team which is 5-3 to the under on the season and which is having an especially difficult time at home. In 3 home games, the Bruins have scored 13, 13 and 17 points. Those were good teams they faced but this is another one. Their last game here had a total of 39.5 and still managed to stay under. As UCLA has had trouble scoring at home, Iowa hasn't scored as many on the road. The Hawkeyes managed only 27 points in their last 2 on the road. They are playing on the West Coast on a short-turnaround. This game will go under.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Total Of the Week is on Ohio/Kent State under. In the past, MAC games had a reputation for being wild, high-scoring shootouts. Those days are mostly gone. We saw yesterday's 2 MAC games finish with 36 and 48 points. This one will also stay below the 50 mark. Though they still have their main weapons, the Bobcats are dealing with some injuries which test their depth on offense. On defense, Ohio can really slow down weak teams. (With an 0-8 record, the Golden Flashes qualify.) The Bobcats have allowed 3 different opponents to less than 17 points and 4 of them to 20 or less. Kent State scored 0 twice in a row earlier and scored 6 another time. Ohio's last visit here went to Overtime but the final score still stayed comfortably below the total. Ohio will keep KSU to less than 17 and this final score will also go under.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Month is on Wisconsin vs Iowa Under. Games between these teams tend to follow a similar script from one year to the next. The losing team gets held to 10 points or less. The winning team scores 28 or less. Defense and running the ball reign supreme. The last 4 scores were 15-6 last season, 24-10, 28-7 and 27-7. The Hawkeyes only passed for 37 yards last year but won 15-6 thanks to their defense and 200 yards, on 48 carries, on the ground. Before last week's loss to Penn State, the Badgers had allowed 3, 7 and 6 points in their previous 3 games. Iowa is allowing just 14 points per game at home. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell said: "It's going to be a tough, hard-fought football game that in a lot of ways is probably going to come down to the fourth quarter." Play on the under.

At 7:30pm ET, my AAC Total Of The Year is on Tulane and Charlotte under. With Charlotte off 3 straight games which went over the total and with Tulane having gone to the over in 2 of 3, we're getting a pretty high number to work with. The 49ers are going to have a difficult time scoring. Though it comes off a high-scoring game against North Texas, Tulane allows 22.2 points and 342 yards per game. Solid numbers. But if we look just at the 3 games where the Green Wave were double-digit favorites, it shows that they are allowing an average of only 10 points per game and 283 yards. The last 2 times that the Green Wave allowed 20 or or more points, they responded by holding their next opponent to 10. The last time that they allowed 30 or more, the Green Wave held their next opponent (USF) to 12 first downs and 26 yards on the ground, only 201 total. Tulane ran the ball 50x. The Green Wave will employ a similar formula of dominant defense and a lot of running the ball on offense. The 49ers have been going over on the road but 2 of their 3 home games have gone under. Go with the under.

At 7:00pm ET, my SBC Total Of The Week is on Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Over. The total was set at 62.5 when these teams faced each other last season. The previous year, the total was set at 67. This one is far lower. It'll be too low. Georgia Southern's last 2 road games finished with 59 and 65 points. Earlier this season, the Eagles had a game which finished with more than 100 points! On the season, they are averaging 30 points per game. After a slow start, the Monarchs are averaging 28 ppg their last 4 games, including 30 and 37 against Bowling Green and Coastal Carolina. Both teams will trade points and both will get to at least 28-30. I've got this game finishing with 60 or more. Play on the over.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big Ten Total Of The Year is on Iowa/MSU under. Something's got to give. Iowa is 5-1 to the over this season. Michigan State is 5-1 to the under. The Spartans under streak will be the one which prevails today! Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith said this of the Hawkeyes: "I think it looks like an Iowa team that plays a physical brand of football. You know, running the ball, high-end defense ... " The Spartans have only scored 36 points their last 3 games, just 17 their last 2. Off back to back games against Ohio State and Oregon, the Hawkeyes wont seem so bad to the Spartans. In their last home game against a team which wasn't Ohio State, they recorded a shutout. The Hawkeyes just held Minnesota to 16 points and they allowed 14 in their last road game against an opponent which wasn't Ohio State. The total may seem low but last year's game had a total of only 36.5 Five of the past 6 meetings finished with 42 or less and 4 of those finished with 40 or less. Tonight's game will also finish below the 40 mark.

At 7:30 ET, my Sun Belt Total Of The Year is on Troy and South Alabama over. Troy comes in off 3 consecutive games that stayed under. That's a good thing as it helps to keep this total reasonable. Important to understand that all those games were at home. The Trojans have allowed 38 points in each of their road games. Their last time on the road was a 38-21 loss at Iowa. The Trojans had some success moving the ball through the air at Iowa and the defense they will encounter today isn't anywhere close to as good as the one they faced that day. South Alabama allows 442.3 yards per game, bottom 15 in the country. The Jaguars allowed 52 points in one game and 42 in another. Their defense stinks but they can flat out score on offense, as they scored 87 in their last home game and they scored 38 and 48 points on two other occasions. South Alabama is going to get 38+ and Troy is going to get 20+. They will combine for more than 60 and send this game over the low total. Play on the over.

At 11:00pm Et, my Mountain West Total Of The Year is on Boise/Hawaii over. The last time that the Broncos played here the score was 40-32. This year's Boise team is led by a running back who can't be stopped. If you haven't seen any clips of Ashton Jeanty, you might want to take a minute to do so. He's a special player. A Heisman front-runner, he's a near lock to find the end zone multiple times each game. The entire Boise attack is downright explosive. The Broncos lead the nation with 50.6 points per game. No other team is averaging 50. They are 3rd overall in total yards with 537.6. Having scored 62 points last game, they are capable of exceeding this total by themselves. The Broncos also give up a lot of points themselves. All 5 opponents have scored at least 14 and all 4 FBS teams scored 24 or more. Even Georgia Southern scored 45 against them. They are 5-0 to the over and that streak will continue for at least one more game. Hawaii lost 27-24 last week but scored 36 in its last home game. The Broncos have scored 40, 52, 49 and 54 their last 4 visits here. They will not be stopped tonight and Hawaii will score plenty of its own. Go with the over.

At 3:30pm ET, my totals club selection is on Temple/Connecticut under the total. The Huskies are suddenly playing great on both sides of the ball. They've blown out back to back opponents and are projected to deliver another beating this afternoon. Temple is going to have a difficult time scoring. The Huskies just held Buffalo to 3 points, less than 200 yards and only 12 first downs. The previous game, they shut out FAU for the first half and held the (FAU) Owls to 9 first downs and 250 yards for the game. Duke held the Huskies to 21 points a few weeks ago, it can be done. Temple did allow 51 points at Oklahoma back in August but was still adjusting to a lot of new transfers. Since then, the Owls have allowed 42 or less in each game. They can and will hold the Huskies to 40 or less. The Owls are going to score 10 or less themselves. Teams haven't played in a few years but still worth mentioning that they are 9-1 to the under their last 10 meetings. The Huskies win but the score will be lower than their last few. Play on the under.

At 12 ET, my Early Riser selection is on UCLA/PSU over. For these teams, this total is too low. Before playing a low-scoring game against Illinois, Penn State had scored 34, 34 and 56 points. The Nittany Lions should get at least 34 again Saturday (and could go over themselves!) as UCLA has allowed 34, 34 and 42 its last 3 games. Even if the Lions get "only" 34, the low number doesn't leave us needing much from UCLA. The Bruins have played some good teams but they've still scored at least 13 in every game. Their recent O/U lines have been in the 50s and this is the lowest O/U line game for a Penn State game this season. With the Lions moving the ball with ease and the Bruins providing points of their own, this one finishes with 50+. Play on the over.

At 7:30pm ET, my Big 12 Total Of The Year is on Houston/TCU over. The Cougars have been shut out in back-to-back games, the first time that's happened to them since 1994. It's not happening a 3rd time in a row! Not against a TCU team which has surrendered 128 points over its past 3 games. Houston's 2 shutouts and overall string of unders to start the season has brought this total way down. When these teams squared off against each other last year, the total was 64. TCU had 564 yards and 36 points in that game and this year's offense is still potent. The Horned Frogs have scored 34, 45, 34, 42 and 38 points this season, an average of 38.6 points per game. Facing a struggling instate opponent on ESPN, the Frogs will be happy to run up the score. They will score big and the Cougars will help contribute to the our cause. Play on the over.

At 9:00pm ET, my CUSA Total Of The Year is on Sam Houston St vs UTEP Over. The Bearkats returned 8 starters on the offensive side of the ball this season. The veteran unit has scored 40, 31 and 31 points its last 3 games. They've gone over the 30 mark in 4 of 5 games. They also allowed 39 points last week and they gave up 45 the last time that they were on the road. The Bearkats should absolutely exceed the 30 mark for the 5th time in 6 games as UTEP has allowed 27 or more points in every game. The Miners scored 24 in their only home game. These teams combined for 71 points against each other last October. UTEP's 37 points was the most it scored all season. The Miners arguably have a better offense than they did last year and last year's big showing against Sam Houston State will provide confidence. This game will finish well over the total. Play on the over.

At 12 ET, my Early Riser is on Nebraska/Purdue Under. When these teams met last season, the o/u line was roughly 10 points lower. Saturday's much higher total is providing a lot of room to stay under. Both offenses may potentially be improved from last season but so are both defenses. Off a 31-24 OT loss to Illinois, the Huskers will get back to playing the type of defense that got them a 3-0 record through their first 3 games. They allowed only 20 total points in those 3 games combined, all of which went to the under. Purdue's last game went over only thanks to a crazy 4th quarter when the game was out of reach. The Boilermakers only had 7 points entering the 4th quarter. Another wild 4th quarter is unlikely to happen again and that will help keep this game under the total.

At 8:00pm ET, my Total Of The Month is on the Over in the Michigan State and Boston College game. Low number. All 3 of the Eagles' games have had o/u lines in the 50s. The o/u line for the Spartans was 53.5. last game. With both teams expected to score more than 20, this low number won't take much to get over. The Spartans have been putting up bigger numbers progressively. They scored 16 in Week 1, 27 in Week 2 and 40 last week. Boston College scored 28 and 21 and its 2 road games, at Missouri and Florida State, and 56 points in the only home game. This is an improved Eagles offense which returned nine starters from last season including QB Castellanos, who has 9 TD passes against 2 interceptions. Both teams will have success on offense and the final score will finish above the low number.

At 7:30pm ET, my Non-Conf TOW is on ASU/Texas State under. The Sun Devils have been better than advertised up to this point, entering 2-0 SU and ATS. In Week 1 they beat Wyoming 48-7, before then pulling away for the 30-23 home victory over Mississippi State. I won with the under in that game and feel that the number is generous again for this game on a short week. ASU has been great defensively and as it now hits the road for the first time this season and as a member of the Big 12, I think that carries over here. Texas State is also 2-0 SU, most recently pounding UTSA 49-10 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. UTSA was held to just 334 yards and went just 4-13 on third down. The Sun Devils are led by Sam Leavitt, who has only completed 57.1 percent of his passes, but so far he hasn't had to be great, as the defense has conceded an average of just 15 PPG. Look for this one to be decided by field position and in the trenches with the final score staying below the large number.

The SEC invades the Big 12 in this interesting matchup on Saturday night and in my opinion, this total is too high. Arizona State is off a dominant 48-7 win over Wyoming at home last week, looking pretty good on both sides of the ball in its Big 12 debut. It has no issues at all in covering the 6.5-point spread, but as good as it looked offensively, it was likely even better on the defensive side of the ball in holding the Cowboys to just the one TD. The Sun Devils are improved defensively from last year, bigger and deeper on that side of the ball. I fully expect last week's strong defensive play to carry over here at home vs. this opponent who is also tough on that side of the ball. Mississippi State was a 26.5-point favorite in its home game vs. Eastern Kentucky and it went on to annihilate its opponent by a score of 56-7. The Bulldogs also looked fantastic on both sides of the ball, but now here on the road for the first time, I say it's Mississippi State's offense, still in its first year in a new system and working with a brand new offensive line, that takes a step back. The under has been highly profitable in ASU non-conference home games over the past several seasons and this number gives a lot of room to work with. Play on the Under.

At 7:30 ET, my ACC TOM is on BC/FSU Over. We have an exciting ACC matchup here with Boston College on the road to take on Florida State, which is off a titanic 24-21 road loss at Georgia Tech as a ten-point favorite in Week 0, and in my opinion, this one sets up to be a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. With the home side now motivated to bury Boston College and to erase the stink of that Week 1 collapse, I am expecting Florida State to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and that this overall faster tempo will help in pushing the total over the number before it's all said and done. Mike Norvell is a good coach and I expect him to have his team ready to bounce back here. Boston College has a new coach in Bill O'Brien, who came over previously as the Patriots offensive head coach. The Eagles gave the Seminoles everything they could handle last year, falling 31-29 as 27.5-point underdogs, and in my opinion, everything points to a similar higher-scoring shootout here as well. Play on the Over

At 12:00pm ET, my Early Riser is on Penn State and West Virginia under the total. As per usual, the Nittany Lions are going to be very good on defense. They allowed 18.2 points per game last year and just 323 yards. This year's defense is again stacked. The defensive line is right there with any in the country and the linebackers and secondary are also going to be really good. Neal Brown believes that WVU's defense is better than last year's. Last year they had to face the Nittany Lions at Penn State and ended up giving up 38 points. They will do a better job of limiting the Lions this year. Both teams ran the ball a lot last year (40x and 35x) and the final score of 35-18 would have been lower if not for a 25-pt 4th quarter and touchdown in the final few seconds. This score will be lower. Play on the Under.

At 8:00pm ET, my August TOM is on Nevada/SMU Under the total. SMU is a big favorite and will put up big points. The Mustangs won't get over this number themselves though and they aren't going to have things quite as easy as expected. Nevada's new coach Jeff Choate knows his defense as does new defensive coordinator Kane loane. Choate was a co-defensive coordinator at Texas and loane was the co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach at Boise. They will have the Wolf Pack improved on defense. Offense may be a different matter. Nevada averaged only 17 points last year. Favored by a similar amount, the Mustangs won their opener 38-14 last year. This one should play out much the same. I've got it at 37-10. Play on the Under.

This is obviously a very low total. Too low! Playing at a very fast pace, the Volunteers average 31.5 points and their games average 53.5. They scored 48 last game and allowed 38 and 36 in their previous 2 games.

The Volunteers had a game back in mid-October which finished with 33 points. Other than that, every other one of their games produced at least 43 points. The Vols QB (Milton) opted-out but his replacement (Iamaleava) is a bigtime player who will assume the starting role next season. Offensively, they're still in good shape. However, the Tennessee secondary did take a lot of hits and is depleted.

The time off will allow Iowa's offense time to prepare. Again, Tennessee's defense isn't 100%. The Hawkeyes have scored 21, 17, 49 and 27 their past 4 bowl games. Even if they get 14-17 here, which they will, the Volunteers will be able to do the rest. ***BOWL TOM***

The Tigers were an over machine all year. They're a little short-handed offensively for the bowl game though and they face a defensive-minded Wisconsin team which has trouble scoring.

Badger games average 41.7 points. The Wisconsin offense is also short-handed and won't be able to take advantage of a mediocre Tiger defense.

On the season, the Badgers were 8-4 to the under. They were only underdogs once. That game had a total of 48 and finished with 34. Go with the Under! ***EARLY RISER***

Two strong defenses. Clemson allows less than 20 points a game. Kentucky allows less than 25, despite playing in the SEC and facing high-scoring teams like Georgia and Tennessee, as well as other top tier teams like Alabama and Missouri.

Two mediocre offenses. Neither team averaged 30 points this season. That's unheard of for Clemson in recent years. The Tigers had averaged 35.5 ppg in four years before Trevor Lawrence and they averaged roughly 44 ppg in the 3 years with Lawrence. Last year, they had 33.2 ppg. This is not the same Clemson offense from years past.

Both offenses are dealing with some injuries. Clemson WR Beaux Collins entered the portal and transferred to Notre Dame.

Last meeting also came in late December, quite a few years ago now. It finished with a score of 21-13. History repeats itself with another Under. ***Early Riser***

Both defenses are better than advertised. Miami allows 22.1 points. Rutgers allows 21. Remember, Rutgers faced Michigan and Ohio State. Miami faced teams like UNC, Clemson and Florida State. So, those defensive numbers are pretty strong.

Rutgers can have trouble scoring. Before scoring 24 last game, the Knights had scored 16, 0 and 6 points in their previous 3 games.

NC State held Miami to 6 points in a 20-6 win in November. So, the Hurricanes can be stopped. They will be led by a QB making his first start and who didn't take a single snap this year.

Rutgers is going to methodically chew clock and play conservatively. This will lead to a low score. Go with the Under. **Rockstar**

USC games mostly went over the total this season. Their final 2 games did go under though and this isn't the same team that was flying over at the start of the season. Nearly 20 Trojam players have opted out, including Caleb Williams. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner, they'll have a QB (Miller Moss) making his first start. That's obviously a pretty big deal. The Cardinals can really play defense. They allow 307.4 yards per game, 16th in the country, entering the bowl season. They give up only 19.7 points a game. Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks) is an elite defensive end who will give the inexperienced USC pivot problems. The Cardinals are without some of their own top offensive players. Running back Jawhar Jordan (1,128 yards, 15 touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (63 catches, 858 yards) both opted out out to focus on the NFL draft. The Cardinals scored only 6 points last game. This is a chance for the USC defense to prove its better than the stats suggest. Go with the Under! ***BOWL TOY***

Both teams, particularly Tulane, are severely depleted. That makes the regular season stats somewhat meaningless. The Green Wave will be without their coach and without their starting QB. Other missing players include Tulane's top wide receiver. The Hokies are also missing some players but both teams have their top running backs. That's going to lead to a lot of rushing plays. The Hokies will go against a tough Tulane run defense, which ranked in the top 10. V-Tech defender Dorian Strong chose not to opt out and said this: "I know that the League (NFL) is there for me but there are risks coming back but I think I made the right decision for myself." This will be a defensive game. Go Under. ***Rockstar***

There is little reason to expect any defense in this one. Texas State averages 36 points and allows 33.8. That's an average of nearly 70 per game. Rice games have also been high-scoring. The Owls score 30.3 and allow 26.7. QB AJ Padget has been here before. The Bobcats last 2 games had scores of 96 and 108. If the Owls want to be competitive, they are going to need to keep pace. Look for the final score to fly over the total! ***TOP TIER TUESDAY***

San Jose State pitched a shutout when it played here in Hawaii during the regular season. It was the Spartans best defensive effort of the season. The 35-0 victory stayed well below the total. Coastal Carolina will also struggle to score without their superstar quarterback. Their last game was high-scoring but the Chanticleers were 8-4 to the under on the season. They were held to 17 or less a few times but they also allowed 7 or less more than once. 2 of the last 3 Hawaii Bowls have finished with 48 or less. Make that 3 out of 4.

Total has come down and that's providing us with value. Marshall games average more than 51 points. UTSA games average more than 56! UTSA has scored 34 or more in 7 of the last 8 games, going over 40 in 4 of those. Marshall combined with for 56 points last game and is only a month removed from a 71 point game with Georgia Southern. Last 3 Frisco Bowls have had 92, 62 and 67 points. This game goes over! ***TOTAL OF WEEK***

Total is too low. Neither defense is very good. The Hilltoppers allow 28.2 points a game. The Monarchs allow 27.8. Both teams allow more on the road. Western Kentucky's last 3 games have finished with 67, 51 and 69 points. These schools combined for 63 points in 2021. 6 of their last 7 meetings have finished with more than 60. There are no weather issues and this will be another high-scoring games. Go with the Over. ***SUPER SMASH***

Michigan averages 37.6 points a game. That's more than this total is set at. It's entirely possible that the Wolverines exceed this total all by themselves. They're favored by more than 3 touchdowns. So, they're going to expected to score more than that. Remember they scored at least 30 in every game but one. Iowa is all about defense. That we know. But the Hawkeyes also know that they will need to score points, if they want to avoid total embarrassment. The last meeting had 41 points and the one before that had 45. The 45-point game (42-3 Michigan) was right here in the Big 10 Championship game. Last year's Big 10 title game had 65 points. This game goes over the low number!

Miami is here because of defense. The RedHawks permit only 16.3 points a game. Toledo is also stout on defense. The Rockets concede 20.4 points a game. The regular season game finished with 38 points. The RedHawks held the Rockets scoreless in the second half but couldn't erase a 21-3 halftime deficit. Toledo was in this game last year and beat Ohio 17-7. That game finished way below the total. Defense rules the day once again! ***MAC TOY**

Neither team is very good on defensive. Both will be happy to face another defensively-challenged foe. The Huskies allow more than 30 points a game. The Minutemen allow more than 40 points a game! That has led to an 8-2 over record for UMass. The last time that the Huskies played a road game where they weren't a double-digit underdog, they combined with Rice for 69 points. This will be another shootout! ***Saturday Super Shootout***

Lots of room to work with here. The Eagles have been involved in some recent high-scoring games, driving this week's total up. They will be up against a low-scoring team here. The Monarchs only scored 10 points last game. They average 24.4 points a game but that average comes down to 21.2 points per game on the road. Last year was the first meeting. The total was in the 60s but the score was 28-23. The Monarchs likely won't be as successful passing the ball in this game as they were in that one. The Eagles ran the ball 50 times. They will keep the clock moving again and the final score will stay below the big total! ***Sun Belt TOY***

Ohio games have been low-scoring. So, the total might seem a little high. It's not. Central Michigan games average 54.8 points. The Chippewas scored 28 points last game and 37 the game before that. Problem is that they also allowed 38 and 31. They've allowed 30 or more in seven of their 10 games. So, we've got an offense which is playing well but a defense which has been bad all year. Last 2 meetings both had 57 points and last 4 all finished with 47 or more. Ohio will break out with 30 plus points and CMU will contribute the rest. This game goes Over! ***Conf Crusher***

Lowest of today's 3 totals. Far too low! Akron games produce, on average, 43.4 points. Eastern Michigan games average 44! Last year's game had 62 points! The year before they had 56. Akron has only played 2 home games since October. They had scores of 69 and 58. Eastern Michigan's last 2 games had scores of 72 and 66. This one sails over! ***MAC TOW***

The Huskies don't play much defense. They gave up 51 points last game. The Dukes scored 42 last game. That was the 3rd time they've scored more than 40 since Sept. 23rd. It's unlikely but they have the capability to go over this total by themselves. They won't need to though because UConn will also score. Before scoring just 3 at Tennessee, they scored 33, 38, 21 and 14 in their previous four. The Huskies should contribute at least 14 again and the Dukes will more than take care of the rest. Go with the Over. ***2023 NCAAF TOY

A low total provides opportunity on Wednesday's MAC board. Akron games average more than 46 points. Miami Ohio games average nearly 49 points. Akron's last game finished with 48 points. Miami's last game finished with 46. Seven of the past 10 meetings finished with 41 or more points. Miami will score 30 or more and Akron will add in the rest. ***MAC Conf. Crusher

This total is simply too low. It's by far the lowest these teams have had against each other over the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals average 45.1 points in their game. The Huskies average 48. Ball State's last game finished with 45. NIU's last game finished at 68! Last year's game finished with 82 points. The 2021 game had 59 points. The 2020 game had 51. This one flies over the total! ****MAC TOW

I get it. These are bad offenses. Plus, Iowa has a really good defense. Knowing that a lot of bettors will like the under at any line and that few will play the over in this game, the oddsmakers have had to post a really low total. Too low! Northwestern just combined with Maryland for 60 points. QB Sullivan, who has breathed life into the Wildcat offense, passed for 265 yards (2 touchdowns) and ran for another 56. Iowa scored 33 points in last year's game, nearly going over the total of 37 by itself. Final score was 33-13. The Hawkeyes just announced that their offensive coordinator (Brian Ferentz) won't be back next year. They're going to want to show that their offense is better than people think. A Wildcat team that gives up an average of 29.5 points per game over their last 6 will allow for that! Northwestern's last football at Wrigley Field? a 47-point affair against Purdue. Go with the Over! ***big ten toy

You don't regularly get totals in the 30s for MAC Conference games. Not between these teams at least! When they faced each other last year, the O/U line was 62.5. The 2021 meeting had an O/U line of 72.5! The year before that, the total was "only" 60 and the Golden Flashes and Zips combined to score 104 points! Six of the past seven meetings, including each of the three I mentioned, have produced at least 38 points. This year, Kent State games average 45.5 points. Akron games average 44.8 points. Last night's MAC games both finished well above this number. The Buffalo/Toledo game had zero fourth quarter points, due to the blowout nature of the score, but the game still finished with 44. The other game (Central Michigan / Northern Illinois) finished with 68. This number is too low! ***mac TOM

Cowboys are off a game where 82 points were scored. Their last 2 have both finished with more than 70 and their last 4 have all produced at least 50. Three of those went over the 60 mark. The Bearcat defense was strong at the start of the season but has now surrendered 30 or more points in back-to-back-to-back games and four of the past 5. Cincinnati offense put up 450 yards in last week's loss vs Baylor. They also accumulated 498 yards in their last road game, a 35-27 loss at BYU. The Cowboys will score a lot but the Bearcats won't go away. The end result? A game that goes over the total. *Big 12 TOY

Charlotte games have been low-scoring but this is a historically low total for a game between the Owls and 49'ers. Eight meetings between these teams. The O/U lines all fell in a range from 54.5 to 65.5. Six of the past seven finished with at least 43 points. Five of those finished with 47 or more. Last year, they combined for 56 points. On the subject of 56 points, FAU scored that many all by itself the last time it was on the road. FAU games are averaging more than 49 on the season. This one will get over the small number. *AAC TOW

Thursday Night football from Lane Stadium is always a good time. So was last year's game Syracuse. It finished with 77 points even though the total was only 45. VT has scored 30 and 38 its last 2 home games. Defenses aren't playing as well as you might think. Hokies have given up 21 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Syracuse has permitted 40 or more in back-to-back games and has conceded 30 or more in 3 straight. This one's going over the total! *ACC TOY

Both teams are consistently scoring. NMSU scored 34, 27 and 28 last three games. LA Tech has scored 24, 28 and 23 its last three games. At home, the Bulldogs are averaging 34.5 points but also giving up 28.3. Off their bye last year, the Bulldogs next game finished with 72 points. The O/U line for that game was 52.5. This one will also result in a shootout. Go with the Over. *CUSA TOW

Stanford fans won't soon forget last week's stunning comeback. That was against a porous Colorado defense. Now the Cardinal will be facing one of the toughest defenses in the country. Scoring will be extremely difficult, let alone coming back. Stanford only scored 13 against UCLA last year and may not even get that many in this one. The Bruins' defense is that good. Remember, in the game before Colorado, the Cardinal scored only 6 points. Off their previous loss, the Bruins' next game stayed below the total by double-digits. This one will also stay under! *Pac 12 TOY

Western Michigan has played seven games. Five of seven went over the total. All seven finished with greater than 50 points. The Broncos have scored 21, 28, 42 and 31 points their last four. But they've given up more than 40 in three of four past six. Ohio has scored 38 or more in 2 of its last 3. Six of seven meetings have finished with 52 or more and the last game here finished with 71. This one goes Over. *Run and Shoot

The Mustangs are going to score early and often. They scored 69 in a game earlier. The Mustangs scored 31 and 34 their last two games. Now they get to go up against the Owls, who have allowed more than 40 points in four straight games. The Owls did score 34 in their last game here. Even if down, they won't just quit trying to score. The Mustangs' last five games against Temple saw them score: 59, 60, 45, 45 and 47! Those are just SMU scores, not combined. Every one of those games got to at least 65. All five went Over the total. This one also will. *AAC TOW

Both teams effectively moved the ball and scored points in their last game. Both will do so again tonight. NMSU scored 27 last game. All the scoring came in the first half. The Aggies probably could have scored more if they didn't take their foot off the gas. They still put up 458 total yards. They were also well above the 400-yard mark in their previous game. They scored 34 against FIU in that one. The Miners also scored 27 last game. They had 441 yards of offense. It marked the second time in three games that UTEP scored at least 27 points. Look for both offenses to enjoy success and the final score to go over the total. *Total Takedown

LSU has been money for the over all season. That comes to an end Saturday. With all the LSU games going over, the totals have been going up and up. Games between these SEC rivals rarely reach the 60 point mark though. The past seven Auburn versus LSU games have had the following scores: 38, 43, 59, 43, 43, 50 and 31. Only one of the past 10 meetings had a total which was as high as this one. Auburn gave up 27 against Georgia and 27 at Texas A&M. Before that Auburn permitted 14 or fewer points in each of its first three games. Holding Georgia to 27 points and 19 first downs was pretty good when considering that the Bulldogs scored 49 in the game before Auburn and 51 in the one after. If Auburn can slow down Georgia, it can slow down LSU. The games may have gone over, but LSU is still loaded on defense. Points won't come easily for Auburn. Count on another low-scoring "Tiger Fight." *SEC TOY

Given how bad the visiting defense is, this number is too low. Kent State just gave up 42 at Ohio last week. The Bobcats threw for 300 yards. In their previous road game, the Golden Flashes permitted 53. They allow an average or more than 35 per game, 44.8 per game on the road. The last six meetings have all finished at 48 or higher. EMU averages 25 per game at home but arguably hasn't hosted a defense this bad. The Eagles will exceed their average which will lead to the final score finishing over the low total! *eye opener

I've got this one finishing with more than 50. These teams haven't played since 2020. So, most of the faces are different. Mike Houston, ECU's coach, is still here though. He knows that type of these games these teams typically play against each other. The last one finished with 90 points. The one before had 110! Prior to that, games had 86, 72, 69 and 83. The rivalry gets renewed on ESPN this evening and we'll see more offensive fireworks.

The Mustangs can really score. They put up 69 points in a game last month and they had 34 last game. Last year, their first under offensive minded coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs averaged more than 37 points and more than 473 yards. The Mustangs will look forward to facing the Pirates suspect pass defense.

We know SMU will score tonight. ECU will, too. The Pirates have scored 28, 17 and 44 their last three games. Off their previous loss, the Pirates scored 44. They average 28.5 at home. With SMU projected to finish with 30+ and ECU projected to score 20+, the final score finishes above this low total. *AAC TOY

Both these teams can really put up big numbers. Liberty averages more than 36 points per game. Jacksonville State averages more than 30. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. The scoring dried up in their last game but they'd previously been one of the top offenses in the country. The Gamecocks have an experienced offense which has found its groove. Their last two games have finished with 63 and 75 points. Liberty may win but the Flames are going to need to score a lot to do so, these Gamecocks will score. Ive got this one finishing with 60+. *totals club

This is the 119th time that these teams will meet. It's the first time since way back in 2008 that both were undefeated. That makes this game an even bigger deal than it normally is. Forget all the corn dogs and fried desserts for a minute, this is finally a big-time game! The Sooners have a score to settle. Remember last year? Scoring won't be easy for them though. Texas limited Oklahoma to 11 first downs and 195 total yards in last year's shutout. The Longhorns have a bigtime defense again this year. They went to Alabama and held the Tide to 24 points. No other opponent has scored more than 14 against them. Baylor scored six. Rice and Wyoming each had 10. Even factoring in Alabama, Texas is still allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game. The Sooners won't get blanked again but they also won't come close to matching some of the numbers they put up in this rivalry from 2018 to 2021. The Sooners are also playing top level defense. They're allowing just 10.8 points per game, tied for 4th best in all of college football. The offenses will get all the pre-game love but the defenses will rule the day!

The Wildcats crushed the Cowboys 48-0 last year. This K-State offense is again loaded and will again put up a huge number. They enter the game averaging 39.5 points on the strength of 482.5 yards of offense per game. The Cowboys aren't about to get blanked again. They never have since. They scored 27 (34-27 loss) at Iowa State last game, the third time in their past four games that they've scored more than 26 points. Wildcats may not get 48 but they should get close to their average. The Cowboys gave up 34 to the Cyclones (and 33 to South Alabama before that) and the Wildcats are far more potent. With the Cowboys chipping in another 20+, this final score finishes over the total. *Big 12 TOW

I played on the Bearkats to go Over last week's low total. One of the easier winners of my season. They had been really struggling to score and they were up against what had been an excellent Jacksonville State defense. The Sam Houston State offense came to life and made Jacksonville State's defense look decidedly ordinary. They finished with 435 yards of offense, 299 through the air and 28 points. Of course, they also gave up 35 points, after giving up 38 in their previous game. Now the Bearkats face Liberty which has scored 34, 33, 55 and 38. Averaging 40 points, the Flames rank #13 in the nation for scoring. Their 501 yards per game ranks in the top 10. They may easily go over this low number themselves. They won't need to though. Though loaded on offense, the Flames are inexperienced on defense. Sam Houston State will score. With both teams doing so, this one finishes over the low total. *CUSA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

The total came down from where it started. It's my strong opinion that it is now too low. Remember, last year's O/U line was 54. Not a good defensive team, FIU has given up 38 or more points in two of its last three games. The Panthers did score 46 points (more than 500 yards of offense) against North Texas though. So, they're more than capable on offense. The Aggies are going to need to score in order to win. Their last three games came on the road but they scored 58 and 30 in their two home games. Expect this one to fly over the total! *Total Dominator

The total is low for a reason. San Diego State is always tough defensively. Air Force has one of the most talented defenses in the country this year. That elite defense is typically on display when the Aztecs and Falcons get together. The last three meetings have gotten progressively lower-scoring with final scores of 21-17 in 2018, 20-14 in 2021 and 13-3 last year. The Aztecs had eight first downs and one rushing yard last year! (AF had 14 first downs and 14 passing yards.) Most of the same Falcon defenders are back from last year and the Aztecs will again have trouble moving the ball. Look for another defensive battle. *MWC TOY

This very low total says a lot about these teams. They don't possess the type of offenses that keep defensive coordinators up at night. They're still good to get over this low number though. The Gamecocks have scored 16 or more points in all four games and they're averaging just shy of 26 per game. The Bearkats have struggled to score but that's due to who and where they've been playing. Their three opponents were Houston, BYU and Air Force. A home game against Jacksonville State provides a much easier opportunity to move the ball and score points. They'll take advantage, as will their guests. Go with the Over! *CUSA TOY

I set this O/U line in the low 60s. Washington has the potential to go over this number by itself. I'm not joking. The Huskies scored 56 against Boise State and they've gone over 40 in every game. They're averaging an impressive 614.7 yards of offense per game. The Huskies won't need to go over by themselves though, as Cal will contribute. The Bears scored 31 last week and they scored 58 in their only road game. They're averaging 437+ ypg. Expect some "end of the summer" fireworks, as this turns into a Saturday evening shootout! *total of week

Two teams that have yet to play to an over collide here on Saturday afternoon, but I think that the offensive floodgates will finally open up here in Week 3.

Iowa State lost 20-13 to Iowa last week, with Rocco Becht finishing with 203 yards and a TD. The Cyclones only allowed 21.2 PPG, last year, but they also won this exact game by a score of 43-10 at home over Ohio last years.

I foresee a similar final combined score here as well.

Ohio is 2-1 after holding on for a 17-10 win at FAU last weekend. The Bobcats offense was ranked in the Top 50 in 2022 with 29.7 PPG. They especially excelled at home, averaging 40 PPG at Peden Stadium. They did score 27 points in their first home game and I think they'll exceed that here.

This number is a little low, the play is the over.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. 

The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. 

Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. 

The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. 

The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* 

With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. 

That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. 

Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. 

LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense.

Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8*

I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season. 

Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.

Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though. 

As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency.

Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10*

Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.

This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim. 

The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard. 

On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. 

Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10*

This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. 

The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there.

But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. 

I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call.

The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10*

These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*