At 4:55pm ET, my Fight Of the Week is on Ignacio Bahamondes. This should be a good one. I feel that Ignacio Bahamondes is likely to defeat Rafael Fiziev due to his significant physical advantages and current momentum. Standing at 6'3" with a 75.5-inch reach, Bahamondes will control the fight's range, using his high-volume striking—averaging over seven significant strikes per minute—to keep Fiziev at bay with jabs, kicks, and long-range combinations. His recent three-fight winning streak, all by first-round finishes, including a submission over Jalin Turner, showcases his versatility and finishing ability, bolstered by improved grappling skills from training with elite fighters like Belal Muhammad and Yair Rodriguez. Fiziev, despite his high level Muay Thai and explosive striking, is on a three-fight losing streak, has shown cardio concerns in longer bouts, and faces a seven-inch height disadvantage. This will hinder his ability to close the distance effectively against Bahamondes' relentless pace and diverse offensive arsenal. Fiziev is tough and those three losses came against Gaethje (twice) and Gamrot. Unfortunately for him, the surging Bahamondes is the wrong guy to snap a losing streak against. Play on Bahamondes

At 1:40pm ET, my UFC Total Of the Month is on Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa Mullins Under. The bantamweight bout between Daria Zhelezniakova and Melissa Mullins is a rematch of a fight from November of 2022. It's unlikely to go the distance due to both fighters' aggressive styles and proven finishing abilities, as evidenced by their past performances and statistical tendencies. Zhelezniakova, with five knockouts in nine wins, and Mullins, with four knockouts in seven wins, both prioritize high-paced striking and early finishes. Recall that their previous encounter at Ares FC 9 ended in a first-round TKO via Mullins' ground-and-pound. Zhelezniakova’s forward pressure and powerful striking (3.29 significant strikes per minute) clash with Mullins’ ability to capitalize on ground control, where she excels at delivering punishing strikes, as seen in her TKO win over Klaudia Sygula. Another Mullins' KO/TKO won't surprise. Both fighters’ defensive weaknesses—Zhelezniakova’s grappling vulnerabilities and Mullins’ lack of head movement—make it likely that one will exploit the other’s flaws for a stoppage before the midpoint of the third round. Play on the under.

At 11:25pm Et, my #1 Fight Of the Week is on Edmen Shahbazyan. The price on Edmen Shahbazyan has come down. I feel that it could and should be higher. Shahbazyan is likely to defeat Petroski at UFC Atlanta on June 14, 2025, due to his superior striking prowess and early-fight finishing ability. Shahbazyan, with 12 knockouts in his 14 wins, demonstrated his devastating power in a 90-second TKO over Dylan Budka in February 2025, earning a Performance of the Night bonus. His crisp boxing, long reach (74 inches), and high striking volume (3.78 significant strikes per minute) give him a clear edge on the feet against Petroski, who has a weaker striking defense and absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute. While Petroski’s grappling and wrestling (3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes) pose a threat, Shahbazyan’s 65% takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing will neutralize this advantage. Look for Shahbazyan to avoids early grappling exchanges and for him to land his sharp combinations. This will give him a strong chance of securing a knockout in the first or second round, exploiting Petroski’s vulnerability to heavy strikes, as seen in his past knockout losses. Play on Shahbazyan.

At 6:15pm Et, my #1 Fight Of the Week is on Marquel Mederos. Early in the week, Mederos was a much larger favorite. The price has come down and we're now getting great line value with the superior and more experienced fighter. Mederos has an edge in UFC experience, technical striking, and defensive prowess. Mederos, with a 10-1 record, has already secured two gritty UFC victories, including a split decision over Austin Hubbard, showcasing his ability to handle seasoned opponents. His training at FactoryX Muay Thai has honed his crisp jab, distance management, and 62% striking defense, which will counter Choinski’s pressure-heavy, brawling style. While Choinski has solid wrestling and submission skills, he has yet to face competition at Mederos’ level. Mederos’ 85% takedown defense and composure under pressure should neutralize Choinski’s grappling, allowing him to dictate the fight’s tempo and secure a decision or late KO/TKO victory. 

At 10:55pm ET, my UFC Fight Of the Month is on Mateusz Gamrot. Leveraging his elite wrestling and seasoned experience, Mateusz Gamrot is poised to defeat Ludovít Klein in the co-main event at UFC Vegas 107. With over five takedowns per fight and 43 in UFC lightweight history, Gamrot’s relentless grappling will overpower Klein’s takedown defense. Klein  hasn’t been tested against a grappler of Gamrot's caliber since his 2021 submission loss against Nate Landwehr. Landwehr isn't the fighter Gamrot is but he was able to choke Klein out. Gamrot’s 7-3 UFC record, including wins over Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev, showcases his ability to handle high-level competition, giving him an edge over Klein, who faces a significant step-up. Following his loss to Dan Hooker, Gamrot refined his conditioning and takedown setups, ensuring he can maintain his high-pressure style. He's coming in on a mission. While Klein’s striking is legit, he doesn't knock many people out. He's been winning his fights by decision, those victories coming against lesser opponents. He won't be ahead on the scorecards when this one finishes. Gamrot’s superior grappling, experience against better opposition and strategic adjustments will prove the difference. Expect Gamrot to dominate through control time, securing a decision or a finish. 

My UFC Fight Of The Week is on Luana Santos. The price on Santos could easily be higher. With superior striking output, grappling proficiency, and adaptability in the octagon, Santos has a lot going for her.  At 25, Santos lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy, more than doubling Lisboa’s 2.05 at 50%,. This will allow her to control the fight’s tempo. Her judo background, evidenced by four submission wins also gives her an edge in grappling exchanges, where she can exploit Lisboa’s less versatile ground game. Despite Lisboa’s solid striking defense (1.40 significant strikes absorbed per minute) and Muay Thai experience, her 19-month layoff following major knee surgery in 2023 could easily hurt her performance. Santos’ youth, recent activity, and ability to adapt mid-fight, as shown in her first-round submission of Mariya Agapova, position her to outpace and outmaneuver Lisboa. A finish is possible but a unanimous decision victory is most likely. Play on Santos. 

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Jessica Andrade Over 2.5 Rounds. Tonight's flyweight bout between Jasudavicius and Andrade has a strong likelihood of being decided by the judges. Jasudavicius, a Canadian fighter, is coming off a decision victory, with 10 of her last 12 fights going the distance. Notably, all three of her career losses and eight of her 13 wins have been by decision. Similarly, Andrade has competed in back-to-back fights that ended in decisions. Given Jasudavicius' track record, she is favored to win, but a finish against Andrade is improbable, making a decision victory the most likely outcome. Likewise, with Jasudavicius having never been stopped, if Andrade pulls off the upset, its likely going to be by decision. Play on the over.

At 8:05pm ET, my UFC Fight Of the Week is on Gaston Bolanos. This price could be higher. It was, as a matter of fact. Bolanos opened up at closer to -200. That might have been a little much. That's why money came in on the underdog. But now the value has swung in his Bolanos' favor. The former Bellator mainstay is ready to make a statement in the UFC. Bolanos has had a few fights in the UFC now. Off a decision victory, he's won 2 of them. Though he's primarily a striker, he's more well-rounded than his opponent. Le has yet to taste success at his level. He was 8-0 prior to moving to the UFC but is 0-2 since. The fighter that KO'd him last fight had 9 losses. Bolanos wins by KO or decision. Lay the short price. 

My 10* UFC 314 GAME OF THE WEEK on Diego Lopes. Alexander Volkanovski was arguably the best fighter in the World over the last four years, but he enters having lost his last two fight, and I believe he's primed for another one here facing Diego Lopes. Volkanovski is now 26-4 following a defeat to Ilia Topuria in February of 2024. The only reason Volkanovski is getting another chance here is because Topuria vacated the championship to move up to lightweight, setting up this matchup for the vacant title. Lopes though enters on top form having won five in a row, most recently a unanimous decision over Britan Ortega. Diego has lightning in his hands and he'll be able to do some damage to Volkanovski, who is now on the tail-end of his career. Great value on the hotter and in better form fighter. The play is Diego Lopes. 

My 10* UFC FIGHT OF THE WEEK is on Daniel Frunza at 9:00 EST on Saturday, April 5th. This should prove to be a one-sided undercard match in the upcoming UFC Fight Night on Saturday, April 5th. Rhys McKee is 13-6-1 and he does have knock-out power, but beyond being a semi-effective striker, he lacks skills when the fight is taken to the ground. Daniel Frunza is 9-2 though and comes in red-hot. He has equal power, but is a much more well-balanced fighter. I think Frunza can win every round, as this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. Lay the price, Frunza rolls! 

My 10* UFC MEXICO CITY TOP PLAY is on Chrisitan Rodriguez at 5:45 EST. It's a big fight for both fighters. Christian Rodriguez is the up and coming 27-year old, while Melquizael Costa needs a win to keep his career moving forward. Rodriguez is 12-2, while Costa is 22-7. Rodriguez is coming off the win over Austin Bashi, getting a unanimous decision in round 3. Cosa also got a win last time out against Andre Fili by guillotine. The bottom line here is that Rodriguez is 5-2 in the UFC and he's faced much better competition to this point. He's also a skilled wrestler and only been submitted once. In what I see being a lop-sided destruction, I'm going to lay the price with confidence here on Christian Rodriguez!

My 8* UFC FIGHT NIGHT 255 TOP SIDE is on Alexia Thainara. I'm going to lay the price here, but I'm expecting the younger fighter to win handily, if not be a devastating knock-out. Molly McCann's career is on life-support. Istella Nunes was supposed to fight McCann, but visa issues ruled her out of this and and has given Alexia Thainara her first big chance. Thainara is a Contender Series signee who owns an impressive 11-1 record, most bouts though taking place in regional promotions. McCann has a 14-7 overall record and 7-6 in the UFC. Both women stand 5 feet 4 inches tall. Thainara though enjoys a five inch reach advantage. McCann though struggles with her accuracy, which is under 50 percent. The Brazilian is a lot better on the ground as well, with six total submissions, compared to just one for McCann. Thainara has been great defensively as well, so it makes McCann very one-dimensional in this fight. Everything points to a decisive victory for the younger fighter in my opinion. Lay the price, Thainara rolls!

My UFC FIGHT OF THE MONTH is on Charles Johnson (approx 7:00 EST start.) Charles Johnson offers plenty of value at this price. He's the more experienced fighter. He was signed to the UFC in 2022. He's a natural athlete with a track background, but he struggled somewhat with his performance on the "big stage" throughout 2023, but then had a breakout year in 2024 by going 4-0. A knockout of top prospect Joshua Van stands out as his biggest win in 2024. Johnson is 17-6, while Ramazonbek Temirov is 18-3. Temirov has raw knock-out power, but Johnson is now just too wise to get caught by any traps. I say the more veteran fighter that's shown immense improvement over the last year at the price is the correct call. The play is Johnson.

At 9:00pm ET, my UFC Fight Of The Week is on Ibo Aslan. I guess you could say Ion "The Hulk" Cutelaba has a cool nickname, though that's debatable. Frankly, that's about all Cutelaba has going for him on Saturday night, at Seattle. Cutelabaa does have experienced. But lately, he's been experiencing a lot more losing than winning. He did manage a win in his last fight, barely. Before that split decision victory in September 2024, Cutelaba was 2-6-1 in his previous 9 fights. He's lost 10 fights over his career, he gets submitted and KO'd with regularity. 1He's up against an all out savage, one who hardly knows the feeling of losing. Aslan is 14-1 and all 14 of his victories came by KO/TKO. He's off 6 straight wins. His only loss ever was by submission but when Cutelaba wins his fights, he does so by KO or decision. Cutelaba should be tailor-made for Aslan. Look for the "The Last Ottoman" to deliver a quick KO.

At 5:00pm ET, my UFC Fight Of The Week is on Elijah Smith. I expected Smith to be a much larger favorite. As a matter of fact, Smith was a bigger favorite but the line has fallen considerably. Getting him at this price offers tremendous value. This may be his first official foray into the UFC but the 22-year old Smith is off 5 straight wins. Most recently he defeated New Zealander Aaron Tau in the Dana White Contender Series. Tau had been 8-0 before the loss. The 34-year old Morales is at the other end of his career. He's off a loss to France's Taylor Lapilus. Morales has an experience advantage and its never wise to discount that. But in this case, Smith's speed, and power will give him a significant edge. Smith's solid take-down defense will keep the fighters standing up and that will work in his favor. I like him to win by KO but if the fight does go the distance, he will have done enough to earn the decision. Play on Smith.

At 7:25pm ET, my Ground and Pound selection is on Rodolfo Bellato. Jimmy Crute has the crowd behind him. That's about all the 28-year Aussie has going for him though. As he's been out action for some time, some may have forgotten that Bellato is an absolute beast. He's only ever lost twice and both of those defeats came against the same fighter. Nobody besides fellow Brazilian Vitor Petrino has ever beaten him. Bellato has responded to the latest loss to Petrino by winning 4 straight. Three TKO's and an a unanimous decision. A well-rounded fighter, Bellato also has 4 submission wins on his resume. Crute is 0-3-1 his past four fights. In his last 6 fights, he's been submitted twice and been T/KO'd twice. Crute is a solid grappler but not necessarily better than the Brazilian. In terms of striking, its not close. Crute averages 3.68 significant strikes landed per minute. His accuracy is 54%. Bellato has a 61% accuracy rating and lands 6.47 significant strikes per minute. Bellato, still only 29 and with aspirations of being a future champion, said this: “I am always looking for and waiting for the opportunity to fight. He’s an experienced athlete with several fights in the organization. He’ll show up motivated since he’ll be fighting at home, but that doesn’t scare me. I know what I have to do to walk out of there victorious. I’m going to bring this victory back to Brazil.” Lay the price with the Brazilian.

At 12:00pm ET, my UFC February Fight of The Month is on Mike Davis. I feel Davis could easily be a bigger favorite for Saturday's fight. Ziam is off an impressive third-round knockout of Frevola last time out. That marked his 4th straight victory. None of those opponents were as good as the one he's up against here though. Off an impressive submission victory, Davis is off 4 straight wins of his own. The last person to defeat Davis was Gilbert Burns way back in 2019. Davis has had some injuries over his career that have forced him to miss fights. (He's had 6 cancellations.) But when he's healthy, as he now is, he's extremely talented. A high-level striker, Davis will remind everyone of how good he is. Look for Davis delivered relentless punishment right from the start en route to a likely KO/TKO victory.

At 10:00pm ET, my UFC Fight Of The Month is on Reinier De Ridder. The Reinier de Ridder versus Kevin Holland fight could go either way. At least, according to the odds. Reinier de Ridder is currently the slightest of favorites. I think he should be a larger favorite. De Ridder is a former ONE Middleweight World Champion and a ONE Light Heavyweight World Champion. He's only lost twice and he's off back to back wins. Holland has lost 12 times including 3 of his last 4. De Ridder knows how to finish his opponents and Holland can absolutely be stopped. De Ridder said this of Holland: “He’s very wild on the feet,” de Ridder said. “But I’m going to put a lot of pressure on him, hit him with some good shots, take him down, choke him out ... " Play on "The Dutch Knight."

My UFC Total Of the Month is on Diego Ferreira vs Grant Dawson Over. The judges will have the final say in this one. Dawson is expected to win and 2 of his last 3 victories have gone the distance. When Dawson does stop his opponent, it's usually via submission. That's unlikely though as Ferreira, a Brazilian with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, has never been submitted. The same is true the other way. Ferreira's wins come by submission but Dawson has never been submitted. Ferreira has seen 9 of his fights go the scorecards. An interesting chess-match, this will make 10. Play on the over.

At 6:55pm ET, my UFC Fight Of the Week is on Jose Johnson. "No Way" Johnson has lost 2 of his first 3 in the UFC but he'll start 2025 by evening his record. The 29 year may be fairly new to the UFC but he's highly experienced, far more so than Bunes. “I've had over a hundred fights as an amateur, so I've been put into almost every different position that you can possibly be put into. I've seen all types of fighters, all different types of body styles, personalities, everything. I've studied the game because I've been in the game for so long." Bunes fought once in 2024, back in January. He lost by TKO in the 2nd round. Johnson said this of Bunes and his future plans: "now that we've inched up on the last fight of my contract, I realize how real this s**t is, especially with me seeing everybody being cut. My children look up to me, my wife sees me work my ass off every day, so I put myself in a lot of uncomfortable positions in this fight camp and I've worked harder than I ever worked. This guy thinks I'm preparing for him and I'm not even preparing for him; I’m preparing to go through him, preparing for people like (UFC flyweight champ Alexandre) Pantoja. I worked extremely hard for this.” Johnson's hunger, experience and superior skills propel him to victory. Play on Jose Johnson

At 10:00pm ET, my UFC Total Of The Year is on Joaquin Buckley vs Colby Covington Over. Six years younger and on a 5-fight win streak, Buckley is quite a large favorite for this fight. He's a big guy for this weight class with a lot of muscle. It's possible that he gets an early finish. Possible but not likely, in my estimation. Instead, I see the veteran Covington surviving the first couple of rounds and then grinding it out, getting some control time on the ground, and taking the fight to the scorecards. The decision may still well go to the favorite but by that point, we won't care. Covington has only had 3 fights since 2021. All 3 came against high level opposition, as he faced Usman, Masvidal and Edwards. Though he lost 2 of them, Covington took all 3 of those fighters to a decision. He's gone the distance in 8 of his past 10 fights. Two of Buckley's last 4 fights have gone the distance. Each of his past 10 fights have made it past the first round. As I said, once Covington survives that first round, I like him to take it all the way to the judges. Play on the over.

My UFC Fight Of The Month is on Themba Gorimbo. Luque has been around a long time. He's had some big wins over some big name opponents. His career is going the wrong way though. He's off a loss and has dropped 3 of his past 4. Luque was originally supposed to fight Nate Diaz. That would have been a better option for Luque, given that Diaz is almost 40 and has also lost 3 of his past 4. Diaz had to pull out though so Luque has to contend with Themba Gorimbo. That's a tough matchup for him. Gorimbo is actually 1-year older than Luque. But he hasn't been around nearly as long and is still a fighter on rise, one who is continuing to get better. Gorimbo is a well-rounded fighter. He's got a height and reach advantage. He's had a difficult past and has referred to himself as "probably the hungriest guy in the UFC right now." That hunger will be on display Saturday night as the fighter on the rise secures his 5th straight victory.

My UFC Fight Of the Week is on Su Young Yu. A heads-up that Saturday's fights come from Macau, China. That means that the first prelims start at 3am ET and the main card is at 6am. I'm supporting the South Korean fighter in this all-Asian matchup. Su Young Yu is the #48 ranked MMA fighter in the Asia Pacific region. Balgyn Jenisuly is the #77 ranked MMA fighter in the Asia Pacific region. A look at the records of their opponents shows that Su Young Yu has fought much tougher fighters. Jenisuly doesn't mind going to the ground but that will favor "Yu-jitsu" and will help to neutralize Jenisuly's height and reach advantage. Jenisuly has been submitted a couple of times and Yu has 5 submissions wins and 0 submission losses. Yu just defeated and up-and-coming Chinese fighter (Daermisi Zhawupasi) who was 9-1. He started strong but learned that he needs to be stronger in the final round. Yu may not see the 3rd round though as he could well win this one inside the first round. If this one does go the distance, he'll be ready and should be comfortably ahead on the scorecards, thanks to ground control time. Play on Su Young Yu.

My UFC Fight Of The Month is on Marcus McGhee. For someone who is 34 years old, having gotten into the game a little late, "The Maniac" doesn't have that many fights under his belt. Off 5 straight victories, he's now 9-1 for his career. Eight of his victories were by KO/TKO. Though the competition hasn't been top level, McGhee is legit. He's been getting better and better and is ready to take the next step. He's got a 3-0 record in the UFC with three stoppages, each one earning him a "performance of the night" bonus. A lot of people don't believe in McGhee, or dont yet know him, but a win here, on this high profile card, will change that. Martinez has been rolling along until he ran into Jose Aldo. The 38-year old Aldo handed Martinez his 5th loss. Martinez has fought tougher competition and is younger. But, unlike McGhee is stil fresh, hungey and on rise. His striking is top notch and he will stay hot with another victory on Saturday night.

My UFC Ground and Pound selection is on Reinier de Ridder vs Gerald Meerschaert under the total. Neither of these fighters likes leaving things in the hands of the judges. Gerald Meerschaert is the all-time middleweight finishes and submissions record holder. He has 37 career victories and only 2 came by decision! Reinier De Ridder is 17-2. Fifteen of his victories, as well as both of his losses, were by either KO/TKO or submission. de Ridder wants another finish and is going to go all out to get it. He said this: “A win is not enough – the top dogs finished Gerald and I want to prove I’m one of them. The ways he finishes fights, there’s a few things he’s very dangerous at, there’s a few things he does that I think I can really capitalize as well. But it’s a great matchup. I’m very happy that they’ve given me him for my first fight because he’s a veteran, he’s a real name and I think if I can put a stamp on this one, I have some leverage to start calling out some bigger names.” De Ridder should finish off Meerschaert in the first 2 rounds but if he doesn't, it's because he got stopped himself. Play on the under.

My UFC Fight Of The Week is on Shara Magomedov. If you like striking, make sure to tune in early for this one. Petrosyan has a background in Muay Thai and is a high quality striker. He's up against someone that's even better at it though. Magomedov is a Russian Muay Thai champion himself. He's constantly kicking and has the ability to keep it up the entire fight. He'll have an advantage in terms of volume. He's also faster and that's going to often allow Magomedov to get his strikes off first. Though I do believe Magomedov can get the stop, a look at the o/u line shows that this fight is very much expected to go the distance. The price on the over 2.5 rounds is -315 at DraftKings at the time of this writing. Should that be the case, I'm confident that Magomedov's high volume will have him ahead on the scorecards. He's 14-0 for his career, 3-0 when the fight goes the distance. In what should be a great fight, Magomedov will remain perfect.

At 7:10 ET, my UFC Total Of The Month is on Daniel Pineda vs Darren Elkins Under. This will be a good battle of two old-timers. Elkins (40) is a small favorite but really it could go either way. I'm more interested in the total as I don't expect this one to last all that long. Known for having a "finish-or-bust" mentality, Pineda (39) has seen a remarkable 28 of his 28 career wins come by stoppage. He doesn't want to lose any decisions either and has promised to retire if he doesn't win tonight. Pineda said this: "All this Fight of the Night, going three rounds, they suck. Let me get in there, finish this guy, and let’s get a bonus." Though Elkins has a tendency to go longer than Pineda, he has still only seen 2 of his past 6 fights go the distance. Elkins is known for being able to take punishment but he's also been stopped 5 times. He's going to keep coming forward and it's going to lead to one of these veterans getting stopped. Enjoy the battle and go with the under.

My UFC Fight Of The Week is on Julia Polastri. Cory McKenna was originally slated to fight Polyana Viana. Though Viana is far more experienced, she probably would have been a better matchup for the 25-year old McKenna. Instead, she takes on a younger but more talented fighter in Polastri. The 26-year old Brazilian lost her last fight. That was a decision loss against a fighter that is 8-0 though. She won her previous 4 fights. Her previous loss also came against a very good fighter. So, she's already fought some tough competition. (She's 10-2 her last 12 and both losses were against very good competition.) After her last loss, she won 4 in a row. She's now got a taste of the UFC and is stepping down in class to take on a fighter who isn't as good as the last one she faced. McKenna is vulnerable to getting submitted and Polastri is a submission specialist. McKenna got submitted in her last fight and Polastri's last 2 wins came via submission. Polastri has a strong chance of getting a finish but if she doesn't, she should have a comfortable edge on the scorecards. She'll win this fight and we'll see more of her going forward.

My Fight Of The Month is on Mario Bautista. Jose Aldo is a legend. He's fought the biggest names and he's done special things in the Octagon. He's also now 38 years old and has already retired once. With 8 losses on his resume, Aldo is no stranger to defeat. Off 6 straight wins, the 31-year old Bautista (14-2) is in his prime. A win over Aldo vaults him into the top 10. Bautista hasn't suffered a loss in more than 3 years. He's going to relentlessly keep the pressure on Aldo. Bautista commented: "I just see it being a high-paced fight. He’s hard to finish, but I think he can crack mentally. All those losses he's had recently, those guys put a high pace on him, and that’s something I’ve got to emulate." Aldo has seen better days. Bautista is still a fighter on the rise. He will make the most of this opportunity.

At 4:25pm ET, my Fight Of The Week is on Bryan Battle. Kevin Jousset has won 5 fights in a row. The French fighter, who trains out of City Kickboxing gym in New Zealand, is a quality striker with a very good jab. Jousset's problem is that Battle (10-2) is also a very capable striker. "The Butcher" brings a lot of pressure and he lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute. He's also never been knocked out. One of his 2 losses was by decision and the other was by submission. Speaking of submissions, that's what really separates Battle from Jousset. Should things not be going well on their feet, Battle will take the fight to the ground. Five of his 10 wins came by submission. His only loss in the UFC was a decision (against a really good 22-1 fighter! ) in a fight which Battle took on short notice. Battle has a strong chance at submission victory but if he doesn't get it, his ground control will help to put him ahead on the scorecards. Very determined, Battle used to be as heavy as 300 pounds. He's on a mission and it will continue in France on Saturday afternoon.

At 9:40pm ET, my UFC Fight Of The Month is on Ronaldo Rodriguez. I'm very pleased to get Rodriguez at this price. I felt he could easily be priced much higher. Rodriguez is 16-2. Osbourne is 12-7. Records aside, styles make fights and this should be a great matchup for Rodriguez. A well-rounded fighter with strong submission skills, Rodriguez has won 6 straight and 10 of 11. Two of his last 3 wins have come via submission. He's never been knocked out (or submitted). His 2 losses came by decision. Osbourne has lost 2 in a row and 3 of 4. He's lost 4 of 7 since moving down to the flyweight division. His last 2 losses both came via submission. He will have a big reach advantage in this fight but his (biggest) problem is that his take-down defense is terrible. Once on the ground, Osbourne really struggles. Full of confidence from his winning streak, the Mexican fighter will stifle Osbourne's striking and eventually take him down and very likely submit him. If it does manage to go to the scorecards, Rodriguez will have built enough control time on the ground to be comfortably ahead.

At 9:15pm ET, my UFC TOM is on Brady Burns Over 4.5 rounds. I see this fight going the distance. Both these guys are grapplers and their respective strengths will help to cancel each other out. Burns has seen 4 of his last 6 bouts go the distance. He now has 11 decisions on his resume. Half (8) of Brady's 16 victories have come via submission and even his non-decisions tend to come late. He hasn't had a first round win since 2017. Both men win their fights via submission but neither has ever been submitted. Expect the judges to decide this one. Play on the Over.

At 11:15pm ET, my UFC GOW is on Tabatha Ricci. Baby Shark lost 2 fights ago and quickly rebounded to win her last fight. She's 5-1 her last 6 and 10-2 for her career. Hill can only dream of a record like that. She's got 13 losses on her career. Even off consecutive victories, she's still only 5-6 her last 11. Ricci could win by submission but this fight has a very high chance of going the distance. (The odds on Over 2.5 rounds are greater than -500.) When it does, Ricci will have the advantage with the judges. She's 6-1 in decisions, the lone loss was a split decision. Hill doesn't rack up points the same way and 11 of her 13 losses have been via the judges. Play on Ricci.

My UFC Fight Of The Week is on Steve Erceg. Hailing from Western Australia, "Astro Boy" will have the full support of the Perth crowd. Prior to a very close decision versus Alexandre Pantoja in his last fight, Erceg had won 11 straight. Though he's better than his record suggests, Kai Kara France is an excellent opponent for Erceg to get back on track against. Erceg is an active fighter. He has already had 2 fights in 2024 and also had one in late 2023. France is not. Erceg has fought 4x since France last fought. He only had 1 fight in 2023 and he only had 1 in 2022. He lost both. Those were difficult opponents but so is Erceg. This should be a war and the Perth fans will be happy when their guy finishes on top. Play on Erceg.

My UFC Total Of the Month is on the Under in the Nikolay Veretennikov vs Danny Barlow fight. Uros Medic was originally supposed to fiight Danny Barlow. Replacing Medic will be Dana White’s Contender Series veteran Nikolay Veretennikov. The new matchup will make for a quick bout, most likely a quick Barlow TKO. Veretennikov's last 3 fights have all finished in the first or second round. His most recent was a 1st round TKO victory. Barlow has four straight TKO victories. Three of those four didn't make it out of the first round. This one won't either. Play on the Under.

At 12:00pm ET, my Fight Of The Month is on Joel Alvarez. Elves Brener is a pretty good fighter. The problem for him is that he's running into an even better one. Off a loss in his last fight, Brener could have used a different opponent to regain his confidence against, ideally one that he could use his submission skills against. Alvarez is an expert grappler though and has 17 submission wins to his credit. Alvarez was beaten up by Arman Tsarukyan 2 fights ago. Tsarukyan is one of the best 20 pound-for-pound fighters in the world though. Alvarez promptly got right back on track by chokinng out Marc Diakiese, a fighter less skilled on the ground. That's the type of matchup which Brener should have been looking for here. Alvarez has fought better competition. He's bigger and he's more well-rounded. He will hand Brener a 2nd straight defeat. Play on Alvarez.

At 8:10 ET, my Fight Of the Week is on Modestas Bukauskas. The price on Bukauskas, the Baltic Gladiator, is more than fair. Bukauskas lost in his last fight but that came against a very tough Vitor Petrino. Prachnio is a big step down in class from Petrino. Before the Petrino fight, Bukauskas had won 4 straight. Pracnhnio also lost to Petrino. He is one dimensional and weak on defense. Bukauskas can't beat the best. It might not be pretty but he will handle a bottom tier guy like Prachnio. Play on Bukauskas.

My UFC Fight Of The Week is on Steve Garcia. Choi is tough and he's going to fight hard. Garcia has taken his game to another level though and Garcia will be the perfect opponent for his 4th straight victory. Garcia, a KO machine, has been around for a while but he's only now really coming into his own. Since a loss in Singapore in June of 2022, he's won 3 straight. Dropping down to featherweight (145 lbs) has been key, as he was previously fighting at 155. Garica said this of the 2022 loss: “When I lost to him, I didn’t know if I was going to lose my job or whatever was going to happen. At that point, it really turned for me. I was just going to go full speed ahead. Win or lose, I was going to give everything I got. Because I did that, I have a different mindset. The effort was even more than it ever was. I don’t know, but it’s been carrying me through these past three fights. I’ve been on a streak. It made me go back down to 145. A I think there are a lot of positive things that happened from that negative thing, if that makes sense." Choi won a decision in his last fight, nearly a year ago now. Before that, he'd lost 3 straight. Garcia said this of the Choi fight: "My goal is to go out there, completely dominate, and really just impose my will and win by any means necessary." His streak will continue. Play on Garcia.

At 10:00pm ET, my UFC Fight Of The Week is on Roman Dolidze. See if you can wrap your head around this. Anthony Smith was scheduled to fill in for Jamahal Hill against Carlos Ulberg. But Ulberg, who was filling in for a previously injured Khalil Rountree, withdrew. So, we're left with Smith versus Roman Dolidze, who steps in on short noice. They are both 35 years old but Smith has vastly more UFC experience than Dolidze, having fought guys like Jon Jones. Smith is also bigger. But Dolidze is favored. That tells you a lot right there. Daniel Cormier thinks Smith would have had an easier time if he'd fought Ulberg. The former heavyweight champion said this: "It just seemed as though there was a clear path against Ulberg. Avoid the dangerous striking, you have a chance to take him down, you can grapple him. That doesn’t seem as clear against Dolidze. A tremendous striker and grappler, so I believe it’s a tougher fight."' Smith's size and experience won't be enough overcome Dolidze's all-around superior skill. Play on Dolidze

At 12:55, my selection is on Muin Gafurov. Saudi Arabia is the scene for this week's UFC card. Muin Gafurov gives us a great chance for a victory. In this matchup, he's better on both his feet and also on the ground. Given those advantages, I feel that Gafurov could be a much larger favorite. At 36, Kang is getting old. Gafurov is still 28 and hungry. Gafurov is fighting much closer to home, as South Korea is practically on the other side of the world from Saudi Arabia, roughly 5000 miles or 8000 km. Kang's last fight was a loss in Nov. 2023. That was against Said Nurmagodov though. He's no relation to Khabib but he's whole a lot tougher than Kang. Gafurov will learn from the experience and rebound with a victory over "Mr. Perfect" on Saturday. Play on Muin Gafurov.

At 7:30pm, my UFC Fight Of the Week is on Josefine Knutsson. This is an interesting strawweight clash between a pair of contender series alums. Knutsson is still a sizeable favorite but the price has come down. In my estimation, she should be a larger favorite. They call Knuttson "Little Thunder." The 28-year old Swedish fighter is a perfect 7-0. Her opponent, Julia Polastri has tasted defeat 3 times.

Knutsson may not have too many finishes on her resume but she's money when it comes to racking up points and winning on the scorecards. All 3 of Polastri's losses have come by decision. Given that the price on the over 2.5 rounds is in the -400 range, this one has a strong likelihood of also going to the judges. Knutsson will have a big advantage in the striking department.

Calm and confident, Knutsson said this: “I want the strawweight division to be ready. Im really new in the UFC, but I think they're going to get the big surprise because I'm going to climb up faster than they think. So just be ready.” She'll improve to 8-0 with another win on Saturday night. Play on Josefine Knutsson.

My UFC TOM is on the Stoltzfus/Ferreira fight to go under 1.5 rounds. This fight is unlikely to go the distance. Brunno "The Hulk" Ferreira is 11-1. None of his 12 fights have been decided by the judges. He has 8 KO's/TKO's and 3 submissions. His loss was a KO.

If we look the recent Ferreira fights we see a definite pattern. Win or loss, they always end in the 1st round! Each of his last 6 fights have finished in the 1st round. A look at his entire career reveals that 10 of his 12 fights finished in the 1st round, the other two both finished in the 2nd. Stoltzfus is off a 2nd Rd submission win. Before that, he lost by TKO in the 1st round.

Ferreira wanted a different opponent but this one is a good one for him: “Unfortunately, Shara Magomedov escaped from me for a second time. We had a fight prescheduled for June 22 in Saudi Arabia, but he escaped from me and accepted an easier opponent where he doesn’t run any risk from being taken down. But fortunately, UFC found Stoltzfus, which is a great opponent to me. Just like Hawes, he will permit me to show both my striking and grappling abilities. That fight will be perfect for me to show my overall improvement for the fan." Translation. This one won't last long. Go with the Under.

At 7:45 ET, my 2024 UFC Fight Of The Year is on Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews. Both these fighters have been inconsistent. Each has looked really good at times and both have lost some fights which they would have liked to have won. Each lost his last fight. It seems that Matthews has been around forever but he's still only 29. That's 4 years younger than Rowe.

Rowe is a lot taller and has a huge reach advantage but Matthews is a better grappler and a more well-rounded fighter. He's also more technically sound and has more heart. Matthews has 5 KO's and 8 submissions. He's also won 6 times by decision. Rowe is 0-3 when the fight goes to the judges. In a battle of height versus heart, I'll go with the latter. One thing I like about Matthews is that he never seems to lose twice in a row. Dating back to his November 2016 loss against Holbrook, he's gone 4-0 when off a loss. Play on Matthews.

My UFC Total Of The Month is on the over in the Main Event between Lerone Murphy and Edson Barboza at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. This fight could easily go the full five rounds. Barboza has been around for a long time and has some highlight reel KO's to his credit. Most of those were a long time ago though and he's now taking on a fighter who has never lost. Barboza's last fight was a 5-round decision in October of 2023. Five of his past 8 fights have beed decided by the judges.

As fights have become more difficult, Lerone Murphy is also going the distance more and more regularly. Off back-to-back decisions, he's now had 6 of them. Three of his past 4 fights have been decided by the judges. Play on the Over.

Trey Waters is 6-foot-5 with a 77 inch reach Billy Goff is 5-foot-10 with a 72 inch reach. That significant advantage in height and reach will make a big difference. We're talking 7 inches, which is an extreme difference. Waters has only had 1 loss in his career. Goff has had 2. Waters is far better on his feet and he has much better cardio.

Goff's best bet would be to take the fight to the ground and go for a submission. That's going to be a problem since he's never submitted anyone in his pro career. Waters is balanced and can win by KO, decision or submission. Lay the price with Trey Waters as my UFC Fight Of The Week!

Costa lost his last fight. It came against Erceg, the challenger in the Main Event. Before that he'd beaten Jimmy Flick. This will be his 4th fight in the UFC. Borjas has only one UFC fight to his name and it was a loss.

Not only does Costa have more experience in the UFC, but he's also the more well-rounded fighter. His 13 victories have been a mix of TKO/KO, submissions and decisions (4, 6, 3). Borjas has never submitted anyone but he has been submitted. Costa is from Brazil and Borjas is from Peru. Back the Brazillian, fighting in his own backyard.

Karine "Killer" Silva will take care of her business against fellow Brazilian Ariane Lipski tonight. Lipski has won a few in a row (2 of the 3 coming by decision) but is still only 6-5 in the UFC. Silva has won 8 straight. None of those 8 opponents made it out of the 2nd round. She hasn't lost a fight since 2019!

In her last fight, Silva avenged a loss against an opponent who had beaten her many years earlier. It was another first round victory. Now 3-0 in the UFC, Silva is the only female to ever record three consecutive first-round submission victories. She's on another level from Lipski and will prove it to the world tonight!

This is an interesting battle of two Brazilian fighters who both need a win to keep their momentum going. Marina Rodriguez is a quality striker but she doesn't have the strength or power that Andrade has. Remember that Andrade has fought at Flyweight, 125 pounds instead of 115. One recent common opponent was Amanda Lemos. Lemos scored a TKO against Rodriguez. Andrade submitted her in the first round!

Andrade, the former champion, is going to hurt Rodriguez with body blows, something she does well. Rodriguez isn't going to possess the power to make Andrade respect her. Instead, Andrade will take some shots in order to get in. She will mix in grappling and will be able to exploit Rodriquez's suspect take-down defense. Whether by KO/TKO or submission, Andrade will win this fight!

Brandon Royval is off back-to-back 1st Rd wins. 8 of his last 9 fights have ended in either the 1st or the 2nd round. Alexandre Pantoja went the distance against Moreno last fight. He won his previous fight in the 1st round though. He previously defeated Royval in the 2nd round. Royval's style makes it likely that this rematch won't last long. The Raw Dog fights with ferocity and pace. Go with the Under! ***UFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

Miesha Tate. She's a legend. She's taken on fighters like Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm. She's even fought Ronda Rousey. Twice. That's all in the past. Those Rousey fights (both losses) were back in 2012 and 2013. Tate retired in 2016. Out of the sport for 5 years, she returned in 2021. She's been outclassed in both fights since coming back and has now lost 4 of her last 5. Clearly, Tate is on the downside of her career. She probably should have never come back. Avila has been out of action due to a pregancy. She left at the top of her game though. She's a couple years younger than Tate and still believes her time is yet to come: Avila said: "I’m going to see this through and there’s going to be a title in my future." She fought really hard to get back and will build up her name by handing Tate her 3rd loss in a row. ***UFC Fight Of The Year***

At first glance, this might not seem like the most exciting bout. Both fighters are on losing streaks but this is arguably the highlight of the prelims. Each could really use a victory. At 29 years of age, Fialho can still salvage his career. Means, now 39 years old, cannot say the same. Both prefer to strike. That's going to work to Fialho's advantage. Though he has been knocked out a few times, he's got a lot more power than Means. Though he's absolutely capable of winning a decision, I've got the younger Fialho winning this one by KO/TKO. *UFC Fight Of The Week

Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.

It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.

Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.

Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. 

Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10*

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

The set-up: Calvin Kattar is 21-4 and Dan Ige is 14-2. Kattar is a 3-1 favorite to win this fight, but I think Ige will take this one distance. Kattar has won his first seven UFC fights and four have come by knockout, but Ige won't be an easy "out," as he comes in on top form from as far as being in shape right now, as this is his third fight since early February. 

The pick: I think Ige bides his time in the early rounds and doesn't push, instead waiting for an opportunity to score an upset after wearing Kattar down. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER 2.5 -134 Pinnacle Kattar/Ige.

The set-up: Raquel Pennington is 10-8 and Marion Reneau is 9-5-1. Pennington has split her last six fights and she comes off a loss to Holly Holm in January. Note that despite eight losses, Pennington only has been finished in two of those setbacks. Pennington has superior cardio and her striking game is vastly superior to Renau's. Renau has split her last six fights as well and enters off a March 2019 setback to Yana Kunitskaya. 

The pick: While Pennington's fight vs. Holm was highly competitive, Renau was massacred in her loss. Note that Renau is 43 and Pennington is 32. Age is the final deciding factor for me in this matchup and all things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it with confidence.

8* DESTRUCTION on Raquel Pennington.