Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-01-21 | Florida International +17.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly WKU is the better team. The Hilltoppers are 16-5, but I don't think they're going to be able to cover this large spread. The FIU Panthers are 9-15. FIU won't be lacking for motivation after losing six in a row. The Panthers average 74.9 PPG, and they allow 76. The pick: WKU comes in complacent here after winning seven of its last eight, including a 91-58 blowout victory over FIU in its last outing. Winning can lead to complacency (especially at the Collegiate level), and that's what I'm expecting here. With a final home series vs. fourth place ODU up next, this also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot for the home side. I like FIU to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Florida International. |
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02-28-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -8 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Aggies took the first game on Friday night by a score of 75-72. This is a battle between the third and fifth ranked teams. This game means much more to Utah State at this point though, because its still currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. Utah State has already moved into third though after Boise State lost to SDSU. Utah State needs to win its last three games and it has a chance to run down Colorado State still. The pick: Nevada played well and covered two nights ago, but previous to that it hadn't played since early February due to COVID issues. I think the Wolfpack get caught flat-footed here now in this second contest and vs. this determined home side. Nevada gave its best shot and came up short last time out and with a chance to end their Tournament hopes, I like the Aggies to find a way to deliver the goods. This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Utah State. |
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02-27-21 | Charlotte +5 v. UTEP | Top | 47-70 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers are third in the Conference USA and 47th in the country in scoring defense, limiting their opposition to just 64.9 PPG. Charlotte is also proficient from the charity stripe, ranked third in the conference. Charlotte took both meetings last year, this is the first this season. However note that the 49ers lost to UTEP 57-53 the last time these teams played in El Paso back in 2019, so the visiting side won't be taking anything for granted. The pick: The Miners are 10-10 overall and 6-8 in league play. UTEP averages 71 PPG, and it allows 69.6. Note though that Charlotte has done extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. This one is going to come down to the final moments, so I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Charlotte. |
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02-26-21 | Clippers -6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. These teams played just last night and the Grizzlies managed the outright win as 8.5 point underdogs. Coming into that contest the Clippers had been on quite the run, but they still have a chance to catch the idle Lakers, who have been struggling without big man AD in the lineup. Now this line has dropped a couple points and the "better" team in this matchup plays with revenge and has all the motivation it now needs to bounce back and crush the Grizzlies. The pick: Memphis had been on an extended losing streak leading up to that point and it played with revenge as well. With both those motivational factors now out of the way, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion. I look for the visiting side to make a quick and immediate response in this bounce-back revenge scenario. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the LA Clippers. |
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02-25-21 | Wizards v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Denver here. Washington had won five in a row, before a blowout loss to the Clippers in its last outing. This will be the Wizards fourth and final game of their road trip, and with a much "easier" game at home vs. Minnesota on Saturday, there's no doubt that this one sets up as a classic "let-down/look-ahead" spot as well. The pick: The Nuggets have last two straight against the spread, falling 123-115 at Atlanta as 2.5 point favorites, before then beating Portland 111-106 at home in their last outing, unable to cover the 6 point spread. After this game though the Nuggets hit the road for an extended five-game trip, so that definitely puts added importance onto tonight's contest for the home side here. Finally note that the Nugs play with revenge as well after falling 130-128 in the Nation's capital in mid February as 2.5 point favorites. This one has ATS "B-L-O-W-O-U-T" written all over it. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Denver Nuggets. |
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02-25-21 | Miami-OH -5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami Ohio has won two straight and I like the Red Hawks to continue to push hard with the end of the regular season just around the corner. WMU though enters having lost two in a row. WMU has had three of its last five games postponed due to COVID, and teams having to deal with these issues have almost always struggled in every circumstance. The Broncos only average 63.5 PPG. The pick: WMU lost to Miami Ohio a few weeks ago and only managed 56 points in that one. Miami Ohio comes to town off its best game of the entire seaosn as well, smoking Central Michigan 96-54. Finally note that WMU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Miami Ohio is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Lay the points, expect a comfortable cover. This is a 10* MAC DESTRUCTION on Miami Ohio. |
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02-24-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets are off a 132-110 loss at Utah, but I think they'll keep tonight's contest much closer. Outright victory? It's possible, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Phoenix has won three straight, scoring 132-, 128 and 132 points in the process, most recently blasting Portland 132-100. But with a three-game road trip up next, starting in Chicago, and ending at the Lakers, this definitely sets up as a "look ahead" spot for Phoenix. The pick: Charlotte has been alternating against the spread wins and losses over its last six games and that pattern is going to continue here. The Hornets have a difficult schedule before the All Star game, finising out the remainder with every game on the road, so this is a team which can't afford to look past any body or anything at this point. The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six following a loss of more than ten points as well. Grab the points. This is a 10* SHOCKER OF THE MONTH on the Charlotte Hornets. |
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02-24-21 | South Carolina +5.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 48-69 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: I like betting on motivated teams. There's only a handful of games remaining in the regualr season and South Carolina will be eager to snap a five-game slide. Most recently the Gamecocks enter off a 93-78 home loss to Missouri as 3.5 point underdogs. This is also a revenge game for South Carolina, which lost 75-59 in Columbia as a 2.5 point underdog back on February 6th. Ovearll South Carolina averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 78.4. The pick: Mississippi State is going to get caught complacent here, as it just revenged an earlier loss to rival Ole Miss in its last outing. Teh Bulldogs average only 70.1 PPG, while allowing 66.4. I think the home side comes out flat here after its big win and I think the hungrier revenge minded visiting team will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Grab the poins. This is a 10* REVENGE ELITE OF THE ELITE on South Carolina. |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 69-53 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hokies are coming off an OT win at Miami, and after surviving that near disaster, I like them to come in focussed here vs. this dangerous Georgia Tech side. Virginia Tech hasn't playes since February 9th, but it's desperate for a win here. Georiga Tech has been playing well against some good teams, but it keeps coming up short. Overall the Jackets allow 67.2 PPG. The pick: Virginia Tech is dealing with a couple injuries, but with so much time off to prepare, I don't see this being an issue at all. I think Georgia Tech is primed for a letdown here vs. a desperate Hokies side. These teams haven't played this year, but VT does play with revenge as well after falling 76-57 to the Jackets last season. I'm laying the short points, but expecting a major blowout! This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech. |
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02-22-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers have been struggling a bit without Antony Davis in the line-up. LeBron James has recently vowed to find a way to bridge the gap and fill the void until he returns, but easier said than done in my opinion. Washington on the other hand comes to town finally playing its best basketball of the year and there's no way this visiting side will take the foot off the gas. Russell Westbrook has worked hard and finally found some chemistry with Bradley Beal, as the Wizards have won four straight SU/ATS, including over some pretty big name teams. The pick: Scheduling wise it favors Washington as well, as the Wiz will lay everything on the line here as they have a game tomorrow night at the Clippers. The Lakers on the other hand are in prime "look-ahead" territory with a road game at West leading Utah up next on Wednesday. A currently red hot team, facing an injured defending champion side which can't help itself looking ahead to its much more important conference matchup up next. This one actually has outright upset written all over it, but let's grab up all these points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Wizards. |
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02-22-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -119 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Oklahoma State won this game by eight points on the road as an 8.5 point underdog in mid January. The Red Raiders are still ranked, but after back-to-back losses, this is now a "must win" game. The Red Raiders average 73.6 PPG, while allowing 62.9. The Cowboys are primed for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. Oklahoma State averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 70.6. The pick: Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season home loss of five or more points to an opponent as well. Texas Tech's defense, combined with the stellar play of Mac McClung is the difference-maker. Lay the points. This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Texas Tech. |
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02-21-21 | Maryland +4.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Terrapins are on the road to face Rutgers, and they come to town on top form, having won three straight, most recently getting the better of Nebraska 79-71. The Scarlet Knights are ahead of the Terps in the standings, but they come in off a 71-64 road loss at Michigan. Maryland's defense has been great though this season, allowing just 65.6 PPG this year. Rutgers hasn't been quite as stout, allowing 68.1 PPG. The pick: Rutgers does have the rebounding advantage, and it produces more steals per game, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 65 points or less in a SU road loss in its last outing. In a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Maryland. |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +2 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas is now 16-7 after its 59-41 win over K-State on Wednesday. Texas Tech returns to action after an 82-71 loss to WVU on February 9th to fall to 14-6 overall. It was a tough loss for the Red Raiders, who had two games postponed. Not due to COVID issues though, but rather weather related. Because of this, I think it in fact works in favor of Texas Tech. Overall Texas Tech averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 62.7. The pick: The Jayhawks average 74 PPG, while allowing 66.2. Kansas is coming off the satisfying win over its rival and note that it's only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Also note that the road team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven head-to-head meetings. Four of the Jayhawks last five wins have come against bottom feeders. Expect the Red Raiders to pull off the minor upset here, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Texas Tech. |
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02-19-21 | Cleveland State v. IUPU Ft Wayne +5 | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland State is 15-6 and IPFW is 6-13. The Mastadons play their final two regular season games here and I like them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Mastadons had lost eight straight against the spread before their 72-70 loss to Youngstown State last time out, proving that they're still trying to post victories here at the end of the season and remain competitive. The pick: These teams played twice at Cleveland State earlier in the year and the Vikings won both games. Both games were competitive though, 63-61 and 89-80. I expect another battle until the end, meaning I'll definitely be grabbing as many points as I can! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Purdue Fort Wayne. |
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02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm all about picking "spots." Here's a good one for Milwaukee in my opinion. The Bucks have issues this year, but they play with immediate revenge after losing here to the Raptors 124-113 two nights ago. That was the Bucks fourth straight SU/ATS loss in a row and suffice it to say, I expect Milwaukee to hit the panic button and play with extreme desperation here as it tries to break the slide. OKC is in town tomorrow night, but the Bucks won't be looking past Eastern rival Toronto obviously. The pick: With a game at Minnesota tomorrow though, the Raptors could easily be caught looking ahead to that much more "winnable" game, content with having already earned a hard-fought split against the Bucks. From a situational stand-point, it definitely is a great play on the Bucks here in my opinion. But also note, Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 120 or more points in. I'm laying the points and expecting a major blowout. This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on the Bucks. |
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02-17-21 | Knicks v. Magic +4 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is playing well, as it enters on a three-game win streak. The Knicks are needing massive games every night from Julius Randle to pull these out though and I think he and the rest of the visiting side are in for a bit of a letdown on the road here finally. The pick: The Magic on the other hand are out to bounce back at home here off a 19 point road loss to the Suns. Previous to that they broke a slide with a win at Sacramento. This is a revenge game for the Magic as well after they lost by seven in The Big Apple in mid January. New York only shot 36 percent in that victory as well, but got another big game from Randle. However, as I stated above, I can't see that happening again here and especially now that the Knicks are hitting the road. Note that the Magics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after losing by 15 or more points SU/ATS on the road in their last outing as well. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Orlando Magic. |
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02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well from a situational stand point for Boston. In this season of "COVID," situational handicapping has become very useful in certain...situations. Denver is coming off a big home win over the Lakers and it has a game at Washington tomorrow night. The Celtics have lost three in a row and are desperate for a victory before Atlanta comes to town for a two-game set, starting tomorrow night. One of these teams is desperate, the other is very content. The pick: Additionally note that the C's are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference home games following a three games or longer SU losing streak. I'm expecting a blowout once the final horn sounds, so lay the points with confidence. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Celtics. |
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02-16-21 | Austin Peay v. SE Missouri State +6.5 | Top | 81-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Austin Peay is 13-8, while Southeast Missouri State is 7-14. These teams played at Austin Peay a few nights ago and the Governors hammered the Redhawks 78-63. But with a game at 17-5 Eastern Kentucky up next, I think the visiting side will have a much more difficult time duplicating its offensive performance against this revenge-minded SE Missouri State team on the road. After winning five of seven, and with the upcoming two-game series vs. Eastern Kentucky, this one sets up as a trap for the visitors. The pick: The Redhawks are the "hungrier" side here, as they look to snap a three-game losing streak. The Governors are the deeper, more experienced team, but this situation favors the home side. I'll stop short in predicting an outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on SE Missouri State. |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia sits atop the conference after taking out UNC 60-48 at 11-1 thus far. Florida State enters of a momentum-building 92-85 OT win over Wake Forest and it's now 11-3 overall and 7-2 in ACC action. The Cavaliers of course get the job done with their smothering defensive play (58.8 per contest conceded), as they enter averaging 69.9 PPG. The pick: The Seminoles average 79.1 PPG, while conceding just 69.4. This is a team which likes to get down and dirty defensively as well, but it's their up-tempo pace on offense which I think UVA will have difficulties matching. Especially on the road. Yes, this is a much-improved UVA team, one of the best that FSU has seen all year. But the said can also be said for the Cavaliers, on the road facing an underrated and dangerous FSU side. I'm going with FSU to win at home in this one. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State. |
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02-14-21 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for ASU after it fell 80-79 at Oregon State in the final moments. Oregon State though is just 10-9 overall with a 6-7 league record, entering this one on a two-game slide, most recently falling 70-61 on the road to the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona State is only 6-9 overall and 3-6 in conference play. Most recently the Sun Devils lost 75-64 to Oregon on Thursday. The pick: Overall these teams numbers are very similar. ASU's offense is slightly better and Oregon State's defense is a little better. The back-to-back road games isn't doing Oregon State any favors though. Home floor, combined with the revenge factor (note that ASU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season road loss to an opponent in which it allowed 80 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a blowout. This is a 10* PLAYBOOK on Arizona State. |
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02-13-21 | UNLV +9.5 v. Boise State | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an immediate revenge scenario for lowly UNLV, which lost 78-66 to the Broncos on Thursday. I expect a tighter contest here and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire in my opinion. Bryce Hamilton is a matchup issue for any team. If Hamilton can get any type of support, the Rebels have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright (he finished with 26 points on Thursday.) Overall UNLV allows just 68.1 PPG. The pick: The Broconos average 78.4 PPG. They shot 50 percent in the win on Thursday. Boise State previous to this series lost two straight to Nevada, while splitting with Colorado. Consistency from game-to-game has been an issue of late for Boise State and I think that pattern continues here. Again, I don't think it'll have such a huge collapse here that it loses outright, but I do think the this line is inflated. Expect the hungrier team to keep this one interesting down the stretch and grab the points. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on UNLV. |
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02-11-21 | Pacers v. Pistons +4 | Top | 111-95 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers are 11-12 and they're on a four-game losing streak after falling 104-94 to the Nets just last night. The Pistons won't be lacking for motivation here, they're 6-18 and coming off a 122-111 win over Brooklyn on Tuesday. Indiana has struggled defensively this year, conceding 111.9 PPG. In the second game of the back-to-back, I think they'll have their hands full here with this hungry home side. The pick: Detroit hasn't been much worse defensively, allowing 113.5. Indiana has started to slide and playing the second game of the back to back on the road against a desperate Detroit team is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track in my estimation. The Pistons and Jerami Grant have an opportunity here to win this one outright as they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 120 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points, but would not be shocked by an outright upset. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the Detroit Pistons. |
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02-11-21 | Weber State v. Montana +1.5 | Top | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: All six of Montana's Big Sky losses have been decided in the final seconds, with three by three points or fewer, and none being by more than six points (which was a double OT defeat). In short, the Grizzlies win/loss record could easily be a lot better if a couple lucky bounces went their way. It's very interesting to note as well, that over its last three series, Montana has won the first game, only to lose the second two days later. The pick: Weber State is primed for a letdown after four-straight victories. With a home and home set vs. Eastern Washington next week, the road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Grizzlies. This is a crucial contest for the season and I don't think that home court advantage can be looked past. Montana is the hungrier dog in this fight and I like it to deliver on home-court. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Montana. |
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02-10-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +1 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of bottom feeders going head-to-head here, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular case. Both teams come in off losses. Wake lost 79-58 to the Fighting Irish, while Boston College lost 81-65 to NC State. The Notre Dame loss snapped a five-game ATS win streak as well for the Demon Deacons and I think they'll take another step back here as well. Overall Wake averages 69.2 PPG, while allowing 68.7. The pick: Boston College returned to action after missing three weeks in the loss to the Wolfpack, and it looked ugly early, as NC State went on a 37-3 run at one point, before the Eagles close the first half at 44-21. BC was without a couple of players as well in that one, but the team looked much stronger as the game went on and considering the circumstances and the way the contest opened, the Eagles definitley pulled it together quickly and finished that one strong. And I feel there's no reason not to believe they can't carry that momentum over here as well. With the rust of a few weeks off now gone, look for BC to come out much faster this time around. The Eagles average 72.1 PPG, while allowing 78.4, but note tha they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine home gaems after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. I like BC to find a way to get the job done here. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College. |
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02-09-21 | Creighton -7 v. Georgetown | Top | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Creighton has been struggling against the spread for bettors, losing three in a row. One of those losses was an outright loss at home to Georgetown just last week. The Blue Jays were favored by 14 points in that one. Georgetown has a losing record, but it's 8-6 ATS overall this season. The Hoyas have covered in five straight games, including in their last one when they lost 84-74 at Villanova as 13.5 point underdogs. The pick: After that close call, I think the Hoyas definitely take a step back here. Creighton is ready to avenge last week's setback and the spread it has to cover here is almost cut in half of what it was in that contest. Much more manageable and realistic and I expect the Blue Jays to deliver in this fantastic situational opportunity. Lay the points. This is a 10* BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on Creighton. |
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02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 101-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans has won three straight. The Pelicans catch Houston off a 119-94 loss in Charlotte just last night. New Orleans also plays with revenge here after losing to the Rockets just two weeks ago. The Pels also hit the road for five games starting tomorrow night in Chicago, so that makes tonight's contest extra important. The pick: Frankly, Houston has overachieved since the James Harden trade and it's definitely starting to show some "cracks in the armor." I base my picks on many different things, but from a situational standpoint, they simply do not get much better than this. I look for a completely lop-sided blowout here for the home side. This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Pelicans. |
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02-08-21 | Wolves v. Mavs -8.5 | Top | 122-127 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is having another difficult season, mainly due to injuries and COVID. The Wolves enter having lost three of their last four. Dallas enters having won two of three, most recently a 134-132 victory over the Warriors. Dallas is 4-1 SU the last five in this series at home and it's covered in seven of the last ten in this series overall. That includes going 4-6 ATS here in this building. Note that Minnesota's last remaining good player, D'Angelo Russell, is also questionable for this contest. The pick: Dallas may have won two of three, but it hasn't been pretty. The Mavericks have continued to struggle posting any ATS victories though, but I think that's finally about to change here. This is the perfect opponent to get back on track against defensviely and I expect the Mavericks' offense to continue to build chemistry as well. Look for a full four-quarter effort from the home side and lay the points with confidence. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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02-06-21 | Toledo v. Ball State +8.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Toledo is 16-4 and Ball State is just 6-9. Outright win? I'm not predicting that, but I do definitely think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Toledo has won five straight, including a 15 point victory over Akron last time out. Winning, especially at the College level, can lead to complacency. The pick: Ball State won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's facing the top team in the league on its own floor, while it will also be trying to erase a four-game slide. Last time out the Cardinals fell by 20 points to the Bulls. Toledo has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule, with NIU up next and I think it finally comes out a bit flat here. I'll point out as well that Ball State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State. |
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02-05-21 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +4 | Top | 81-82 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Marshall's won two in a row, but I think it'll stumble here vs. a hungry ODU side which is rested, as it's had its last four games postponed due to COVID issues. Previous to winning two in a row, Marshall had dropped two in a row. Overall the Herd is 3-3 in Conference play. Previous to its break, ODU had won four of five. ODU enters are 4-2 in league play. The pick: The Monacrchs only allow 68.5 PPG this season, and despite being 5-2 on the road this year, I think that Marshall will have a difficult time replicating its last two offensive performances. Not only is ODU a perfect 5-0 SU at home this year, but it's also 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. I'm banking on ODU to quickly shake off any rust and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion. |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5 | Top | 93-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver comes in off a satisfying win over Utah, as Nikola Jokic posted his ninth straight double-double. LA had lost four straight ATS, but they were able to break that slide with an 8-point road victory. The pick: The last four times Denver has come to play in this building, LA has averaged 121 points, while conceding just 109 to it. I think this trend of domination continues, as I don't think Denver has the defense to hang with the home side down the stretch. This is an important game and I expect The King and company to build off their latest ATS victory with an even stronger performance this evening. Lay the points. This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Lakers. |
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02-03-21 | Houston v. East Carolina +16.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright win? I'm not predicting that. But I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Houston is 15-1 overall and 10-1 in AAC action. The Cougars have won eight in a row. Winning can lead to complacency, especially among college athletes. East Carolina enters under the radar and hungry to break out of a six-game slide, most recently falling to Tulsa 77-68. Houston's a good team, most recently beating SMU 70-48. With a week off before a contest at USF though, I think the Cougars will come out flat in the second half as they get caught looking ahead. They're in no fear of actually losing this game outright, but I also don't think they'll run up this score, instead leaving the back door open for a nice cover for the hungry home side. The pick: ECU average 61 PPG and it concedes 69.3. Hence its poor overall record. The Pirates though are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range and as stated, they're clearlier the "hungrier" dog in this fight. I expect Houston to indeed get caught looking ahead here. No upset, but tighter than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina. |
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02-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 116-134 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis is 8-6 and it's coming off a huge win in San Antonio just last night. Now it's 9-6. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot, as Memphis now travels across country to play a non-conference game just 24 hours later. The pick: Indiana on the other hand is on a two-games losing streak. The Pacers will be desperate to break out of their slump and I think this is the perfect situation in which to do that. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are similar, but note that Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after a two-games or longer SU losing streak. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers. |
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02-01-21 | Suns v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: After three straight losses, the Suns have now won two in a row, including a 111-105 victory over these very Mavericks on Saturday. The Suns are playing without Devin Booker right now, so the Mavericks have no excuse in this revenge scenario. And not only does Dallas play with revenge here, it's also out to break a five-game losing streak. For all intents and purposes, this is absolutely a "must win" scenario for Luka Doncic and company. The pick: Betting on sports isn't about simply looking at team's averages and figuring out if they can cover a spread. Indeed, there's so many other factors to take into account and in this case, I still think Dallas is the better team on paper and on the floor. There's just been zero chemistry for this Dallas team this year for some reason. But that's about to change. Doncic and Porzingis are a forced to be reckoned with and I thnk they'll will their team to its best win of the year tonight. I'm laying the short points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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01-31-21 | Nets v. Wizards +8 | Top | 146-149 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Hey, I'm all about betting a really great "situation," and that's definitely the case here for the Wizards in my opinion. The Nets are off a 147-125 win over the Thunder in their latest game, but with a much more high-profile game against the Clippers at home on Tuesday, I think the visiting side gets got "looking ahead." The Wizards on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after four straight losses. The pick: The Nets are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 145 or more points in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing, while the Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after four or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. The Nets are the better team, but this is about the overall "situation," which I've outlined definitely favors the home side here. Grab the points. This a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Wizards. |
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01-31-21 | Middle Tennessee +15 v. UAB | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: MTSU won't be lacking for motivation here as it tries to break a five-game losing streak. The Blue Raiders average 60.8 PPG, while allowing 67.5. Dontrell Shuler averages 12.6 points and 2.2 boards. The UAB Blazers have won six of their last seven and I think they're going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent here and I look for them to leave the back door open just enough for this hungry Blue Raiders team to comfortably sneak through down the stretch. UAB averages 75 PPG and it concedes 58.5. The pick: Betting on sports isn't about simply adding up offensive and defensive averages and then trying to find edges in posted lines, as there are a plethora of other factors to also consider. And that's the case here. Clearly UAB is the better team, but I don't think it'll run up the score here and we definitely don't have to question the Blue Raiders resolve after their extended losing streak now. UAB won this game 70-59 two nights ago as an 11-point favorite, pushing on the number. The Blue Raiders are getting a few more points here, but I expect an even more tightly contested affair this time around. Grab the points. This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH on MTSU. |
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01-30-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Hawaii +4 | Top | 53-51 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: After six-straight victories, I think that UC Irvine takes a step back here. Hawaii had lost two in a row, before winning in a blowout in its last outing. The Warriors allow 68.5 PPG, while the Anteaters concede just 62.5. UC Irvine's strength of schedule can be question in my opinion, and note that it's just 1-3 on the road so far this season. The pick: Hawaii is 2-2 at home, but it's 7-2 ATS after a 15 points or greater SU/ATS victory in its last outing. Keep your eyes on Casdon Jardine, who leads the Warriors in points and rebounding. UC Irvine has been shaky on the road this year and it now faces a Anteaters team coming off its best performance of the season. Hawaii also plays with revenge here after losing both games in this series last season. While the outright is clearly not out of the question, all signs point to a solid cover at the least. This is a 10* BIG-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on Hawaii. |
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01-28-21 | Belmont v. Austin Peay +6 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? Maybe. This is a contest which I envision coming right down to the wire, and because of that, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. I think 16-1 Belmont is going to get caught looking past the 8-5 Austin Peay Governors. Belmont enters off a 114-62 win over SIU-Edwardsville. The Bruins average 83.2 PPG, while allowing 68.3. The pick: Austin Peay likely got caught looking ahead to this game in its last game, falling 76-70 to Jacksonville State. The Governors average 73.5 PPG while allowing 69.7. These teams are very similar on the defensive end, and as I pointed out, I do think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Bruins, who are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 110 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in their last outing. I smell an upset, but in the end let's grab up the points! The is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on Austin Peay. |
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01-28-21 | Blazers +2 v. Rockets | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and do not have a very good line (just +2), however I think the Blazers are going to win this one outright (that said, I'm still going to recommend to play with the points, rather than the moneyline.) My "Coach's Corner" packages are all about "situations." This one sets up GREAT for the Blazers in my opinion. The Blazers have lost three straight against the spread, going just 1-2 straight-up in the process, most recently a 125-122 home setback to the Thunder. Portland though comes in motivated to win here in my opinion after the scuffling stretch and because this is the opener of a big seven-game road trip. Also throw in the fact that it's a "revenge" game after a 128-126 OT loss back on December 26th. The pick: After three straight victories, and with a night off before a four-game Estern swing, I think the home side finally gets caught complacent and flat-footed here. I'm banking on the Blazers winning outright, but as I said up top, the official play will be to grab as many points as you can. The is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Portland Trailblazers. |
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01-27-21 | Western Carolina +2.5 v. VMI | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Western Carolina is 7-7 and the VMI Keydets are 8-8. Western Carolina is out to snap a five-game losing streak. The Catamounts average 79.6 PPG, and they concede 78.4. Mason Faulkner is averaging 16 points and 4.8 assists. The pick: The VMI Keydets are averaging 81.4 PPG, while conceding 77.2. The Keydets have split their last six games, but note that they're just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +4.5 points range. Finally note that the road team is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 in this series. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but WCU enters as the hungrier side. I look for the Catamounts to find a way to deliver on the road. The is a 10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH on Western Carolina. |
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01-26-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois -6.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: SIU is 4-5 and Eastern Illinois is 5-10. THe Cougars are averaging 67.2 PPG, while allowing 74.4. The Panthers are averaging 71.1 PPG and conceding 75.8. Eastern Illinois has faced a more difficult schedule and has the advantage of playing at home here. The pick: Eastern Illinois has lost five straight. Losing isn't fun. Winning is. THe Panthers though have an unbelievable opportunity here, as not only are the Cougars a bad team, but they also haven't even played since December 10th. I look for the hungrier, more in "game shape" Panthers to finally figure it out and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Eastern Illinois. |
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01-24-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three in a row, I think the Hawks finally have a small letdown here. The Bucks on the other hand are 9-6 and they'll be eager to atone for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers on Thursday. Atlanta though is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The pick: This is a bad matchup for Atlanta though, as the Bucks have really skilled perimeter defenders in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton. After back-to-back losses to the Nets and Lakers, look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. The is a 10* EAST-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Bucks. |
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01-24-21 | Davidson -1.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a 73-58 win over Fordham on Wednesday. It was an 18.5 point favorite and while the Wildcats have been winning, they have failed to cover in three straight. UMass comes in off a 65-46 win at Fordham last week as a nine point favorite. The Wildcats last three wins have been by at least 14 points though and I think they'll pull away for a comfortable cover finally here. The pick: UMass has covered in three straight, and while it does average 82.8 PPG, the Minutemen also concede 75 per contest. Davidson is the more complete team here, definitely better on the defensive end and note that it's 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Minutemen are vastly improved, but I think their record has taken advantage of a favorable schedule to this point. I'm laying the points, but expecting a decisive victory. The is a 10* ANNIHILATION on Davidson. |
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01-23-21 | Warriors +7 v. Jazz | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors are 8-7 and are coming off a loss to the Knicks on Thursday night. Previous to that GS beat the Lakers in a thriller on the road, followed by a solid victory over the Spurs at home. The Warriors have been better than most likely thought they'd have been without Klay Thompson in the lineup. Steph Curry and this potent Warriors line-up is going to be able to push this tough Jazz defense to the brink in my opinion. The pick: The Jazz have covered in seven straight, but Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 105 points or less in a SU/ATS home loss in its last outing. I expect Golden State to come in focussed and while the outright is possible, let's grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Golden State Warriors. |
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01-23-21 | Valparaiso +2 v. Illinois State | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Valparaiso is 3-9, while Illinois State is 5-8. Valparaiso comes in hungry to snap a five-game losing streak. OVerall the Crusaders are averaging 71.5 PPG, while conceding 67.5. The pick: The Redbirds have lost five of their last seven. Overall Illinois State is averaging 76 PPG, while allowing 76.8. Illinois State's issues on the defensive end are going to be the issue here for it. Look for Valparaiso to pull away for the comfortable cover in the second half. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Valpo. |
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01-21-21 | Knicks +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks have had two days off to prepare for this one, and they also play in Sacramento tomorrow night. I look for New York to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here as it takes advantage of a Warriors team that enters off a highly satisfying 121-99 win at home over the Spurs just last night. The pick: Both teams have been better than most expected this year. The Knicks have been the league's punching bag for years, but they aren't a complete pushover this season. The Knicks are off a 91-84 win over Orlando and note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to 85 or fewer points in a SU/ATS victory. A great situational play in my opinion and while the outright victory isn't out of the question, in the end, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Knicks. |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Wichita State comes in complacent here after its 19 points win at home over Tulsa, moving it to 8-3. Memphis is 6-3, and it'll be eager to return to form here after losing by one point to Tulsa on the road. The Shockers have covered the spread in all four of their road games this year, but I think that now swings the value to the home side here, as oddsmakers over compenstate in my opinion. The pick: Both teams are decent defensively, and overall they're evenly matched. But the Tigers are the hungrier team here and note that they're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS road loss in their previous outing. This one has "letdown" written all over it for the Shockers in my opinion. Lay the short points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Memphis. |
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01-20-21 | Nets v. Cavs +10 | Top | 135-147 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This is expected to be the return of Kyrie Irving to the Nets line-up after he missed seven games due to personal reasons. Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince face off against their former team after being dealt to the Cavs in the Harden deal. The Cavaliers are 6-7, most recently coming off a gritty 106-103 win over the Knicks. The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 103.9 PPG, and I think they're going to bring their "A" game tonight as they look to pull off the outright upset. The pick: Brooklyn looks really good, but I think consistency against weaker teams is going to be an issue for it this year. Irving is a distraction at this moment, not a benefit. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but everything points this one being a lot closer than what this spread would suggest in my opinion. So grab the points! This is a 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cavaliers. |
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01-20-21 | Rhode Island v. Duquesne +5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Duquesne is the "hungrier" team in this matchup after back-to-back losses. The Rams have won two of their last three. The Rams are averaging 74.5 PPG this year, but note that they're a poor 1-4 on the road this season. Duquesne is only averaging 62.8 PPG this year, but note that Dukes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. The pick: This is also a revenge game for the Dukes after the Rams blew them out in this game last year. The Rams' terrible play on the road is a very real factor here and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Duquesne. |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -104 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans finally broke a five-game slide with a 128-123 win at Sacramento in its last game. The Pelicans got 31 points from Zion Williamson, while Brandon Ingram added 22. Eric Bledsoe was also big with 21 points. Now New Orleans is in Utah for two straight, as these teams will play here again on Thursday night. This is their first game against each other this season. Last year the Jazz took three of four, but all were pretty competitive, including in Utah's 106-104 win back on July 30th of 2020 in the final one there. The pick: The Jazz lost 112-100 at the Knicks back on January 6th and they haven't lost since, not only winning five in a row, but also covering in five straight. So now I think public perception here has pushed up this line on the home side after its recent win streak, and I think the value has now swung to this hungry underdog team. Williamson is finally starting to his stride, so I expect him to build off his latest game and at the very least, take the Jazz down to the wire. This one definitely sets up well for the visiting side. The is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on New Orleans. |
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01-19-21 | Duke -3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is off a 74-67 loss at Virginia Tech in its latest action. It was the Blue Devils first conference loss. A couple of bright spots in defeat were Jeremy Roach, who had 22 points, and Matthew Hurt, who added 20 points and 11 rebounds. That was only the Blue Devils second road game of the year, and they looked shaky, going just 8 of 29 from 3-point range. But now the Blue Devils come to Pittsburgh focussed and hungry to bounce back. The pick: The Panthers enter having won six of their last seven, including two straight, most recently the 96-76 home beating of Syracuse as a four-point dog. Pittsburgh's been playing well of late, but the Blue Devils have done well in this matchup for years, going 8-2 the last ten in the series straight up. That included a 79-67 home win last year. Duke isn't the same Duke team as in year's past, and Pittsburgh is playing really well at the moment, but I think that off the loss to the Hokies, that the correct call in this matchup is for Duke to bounce back. The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Duke. |
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01-18-21 | St. John's +10.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: UConn has only played eight games this year, while most other teams have played closer to 14. The Huskies are also without three of their guards due to injury issues. St. John's is averaging 79 PPG, while allowing 78.5. The Huskies have averages 73.13 PPG, while allowing 61.75. The pick: UConn's only loss this year was a 76-74 setback to Creighton. Are the Huskies the better team here? Yes. But the lack of overall play has hampered them overall this year. St. John's has the offense to compete with any team in the nation and I expect it to give the home side everything it can handle today. Probably no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's. |
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01-17-21 | Memphis +1 v. Tulsa | Top | 57-58 | Push | 0 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis hasn't played since December 29th, when it beat USF by a score of 58-57. Tulsa is the perfect opponent to get warmed up against, as it's now 7-4 after getting destroyed 72-53 to Wichita State as a 3.5 point dog on Wednesday. This is a revenge game for the Tigers as well after Tulsa scored the 56-49 upset road victory last year. Memphis averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing 64.1. The pick: Tulsa's offense is poor, averaging only 68.7 PPG, while it concedes 61.3. Look for the longer layoff to in fact help here in the final stages of the regular season and expect Memphis to exact its revenge from last year's upset at home. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Memphis. |
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01-15-21 | Green Bay v. Detroit -3 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Green Bay started off the season 0-9, but it comes to town having won three straight. Suffice it to say, I expect the Phoenix to finally stumble here after three wins in a row. Most recently Green Bay posted an 87-78 victory over Oakland. Detroit's been off since December 27th, when it lost to Oakland 83-80 as a 1-point favorite to fall to 1-7 overall. The Phoenix have covered or pushed in six straight games, and I can't see that streak continuing here vs. this ultra hungry Mercy side. The pick: Detroit is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. The Titans have failed to cover in four straight, but the extra time off will be beneficial here in my opinion. This is the first of two games, and I like the "hungrier" home side to risk life and limb here to defend its turf and to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit. |
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01-13-21 | La Salle v. George Mason -3 | Top | 42-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: George Mason has lost three straight to fall to 5-5 on the year. La Salle had its game against Fordham cancelled, then it most recently lost to UMass. The Explorers are oly averaging 67.6 PPG this year, as La Salle does not have a single player averaging in double-figures this season. The pick: The Patriots have struggled with consistency as well, but they have two players averaging in double figures (keep your eyes on Jordan Miller, who is averaging 15.1 PPG for George Mason). Finally note that the Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit home loss. Home court advantage can't be overlooked either. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home side victory. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on George Mason. |
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01-12-21 | Pacers v. Warriors +1 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis has a game in Sacramento against a desperate Kings team on Monday and I suspect that the Pacers will have their hands full with Sacramento, as it entered that one having lost two in a row and four of its last five. So from a situational standpoint alone, I absolutely feel this sets up great for Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State has been better than most predicted I think. Especially after the first couple of games, as it appeared as if the Warriors would once again be a terrible team without Klay Thompson in the line-up. But that's obviously not the case, as Curry has been excellent and the younger pieces around him are definitely playing a lot better after that first awkward week. The pick: Curry had a 62 point game last week and while he was just 2 of 16 for 11 points vs. the Raptors in his last outing, Golden State still dug deep and pulled out the 106-105 victory. Toronto was desperate in that game as well to break out of its early season struggles, so the fact that the Warriors won that game despite Curry having such a poor performance I think speaks volumse to the current level that the Warriors are playing at right now. I believe the Pacers lay everything on the line to try and secure the victory against the weaker Kings on Monday night, and then I look for them to come out fatigued on Tuesday against this red hot Warriors side. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on Golden State. |
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01-12-21 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 54-77 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Wisconsin the underdog here, I think it sets up well for it to keep this one close down the stretch. Michigan has won and covered in four straight. In fact it's 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. Most recently the Wolverines pulled away for an 82-57 win at home over Minnesota. After this game, Michigan has the rematch with the Gophers in Minnesota this weekend, so it does in a small way set up as a look ahead spot for the home side. Wisconsin has been playing well this year also, it's 10-2 straight-up, but so far it hasn't been as kind to bettors, going just 5-6-1 against the spread. It's actually been trading wins and losses against the spread over its last six games, and while it did win 80-73 in overtime against the Hoosiers in its last outing it didn't cover the nine-point spread. So this pattern continues here, I like the Badgers to bounce back and get a cover here now as well. The pick: These teams last played just before the Pandemic hit in February 2020 and the Badgers managed the 81-74 outright upset in that one. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset here , but in my opinion, I think everything points to a really tight game. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wisconsin. |
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01-11-21 | Pacers v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 122-127 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These two non-conference opponents enter this game on other ends of the spectrum right now. Indiana has been doing well and Sacramento has been struggling. Indiana though had a two-game win streak snapped last time out in a 125-117 setback to the Suns. The Pacers had played five of their previous six at home and now they hit the road for an extended road swing, including a more high-profile game in Golden State tomorrow night. This absolutely (in my opinion anyways), sets up as a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the visiting side. The pick: Conversely, the Kings come in desperate to break their recent shoddy play which has seen them drop five of their last six, including five in a row ATS. As mentioned off the top, this is what I believe to be a fanastic "situational" play and while the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Sacramento Kings. |
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01-10-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Indiana State +7.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 3-6 Sycamores to fight hard and to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Loyola is 7-2 and it's won four straight, but winning can breed complacency. Indiana State is for sure the "hungrier" dog in this fight, as it's lost four straight. Twice to Drake and twice to Missouri State. The pick: The Ramblers only scored 57 points in their last game against North Texas and I think they'll have their hands full here against a Sycamore's team that's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I think this one sets up great for Indiana State in a number of ways. I'm grabbing the points for sure. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana State. |
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01-09-21 | USC v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Devils hadn't played in three weeks in their 81-75 loss to UCLA in their last game. I think they'll bounce back here though vs. the Trojans, who beat Arizona 87-73 in their latest action. The pick: ASU comes in fresh here, despite the loss last time out. It's the "hungrier" does in this fight as well. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, but I think from a situational stand point, it favors the home side. Additionally note that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 86 or more points in SU/ATS conference victory in their last outing. While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on ASU. |
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01-08-21 | Hornets v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are similar in a lot of respects. Their young, and their both hungry to prove themselves and to come out here and get a victory, but I think this is a matchup which favors New Orleans. After back-to-back victories, the Pelicans come in having lost two straight. Both losses though they were very competitive in, falling 118-116 in overtime at home to the red hot Pacers, before then losing 111-110 at home to Oklahoma City. This is an important game for New Orleans though, as after this it hits the road for seven straight road games against some really stiff competition, including the Mavericks, the Clippers, the Lakers and the Jazz. At 4-4, and off two straight losses, and just before a gruelling road trip, I'd call this a "must win" scenario almost for New Orleans. The pick: Who knows what type of effort you're going to get from the Hornets from night-to-night though. And especially on the road. And especially after they finall broke a three-game slide with a 102-94 win at Atlanta in their last game. And with a rematch at home against the Hawks tomorrow night, this also DEFINITELY sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the visiting side. So as I said off the top, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Pelicans, who I believe will risk life and limb today to not only secure the straight up victory, but also a solid against the spread one. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New Orleans Pelicans. |
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01-08-21 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio +6 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three of its last four to return to .500, I think that UNT has a letdown here. Both teams have plenty of issues on both sides of the court. UNT has a decent defense that's conceding 63.5 PPG. UTSA though enters as the hungrier dog in this fight after back-to-back losses to Rice dropped it to 4-5. The pick: The Roadrunners have struggled defensively, but that unit catches a big break today facing the poor offense of UNT. This is the first game of two straight here and I think the desperate home side is the correct call. I think the Roadrunners high-tempo offense keeps them competitive late and while I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* CONF. USA GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA. |
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01-07-21 | Cincinnati +6 v. SMU | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I like betting on teams which are "hungry" or "desperate." Cincinnati fits that bill perfectly here. The Bearcats are 2-6 overall and 0-3 in conference play. Most recently the fell 70-63 to Tulsa. SMU is 6-1 overall and 2-1 in league play, but that one loss came in their last outing, falling 74-60 to Houston. Here's a great spot for Cincinnati to take advantage of, as I think playing against teams which have been on an extended win streak, and which are coming off their first loss in a long stretch, are at times perfectly primed for another letdown in their next game immediately after that scenario plays out. The pick: Note as well that the Mustangs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU/ATS loss of ten or more points, while the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last ten conference road games after three or more SU losses in a row. Grab the points for sure, but don't be shocked for an outright! This is a 10* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati. |
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01-06-21 | Utah State v. New Mexico +13 | Top | 77-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah State is the better teams, but New Mexico is by far the "hungrier" team in this matchup after dropping each of its first four Mountain West contests. Utah State comes in complacent here vs. its lowly opponent after winning six in a row. This is the start of three straight games in a row vs. each other, which also puts added incentive onto the home side to try and avoid getting swept in this series. The pick: New Mexico won its first three games, then dropped four. But I'll point out that the Lobos four losses cam against Nevada and Boise State, two teams with a combined 16-4 record right now. Utah State on the other hand has played suspect competition to this point, so its numbers are skewed. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, while the home side is 10-2 ATS the last 12 between these schools. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Mexico Lobos. |
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01-05-21 | Kansas v. TCU +5 | Top | 93-64 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: I just played against the Longhorns after their upset win over KU, and now I'm also going to suggest a play against the Jayhawks here in this contest, as I believe they'll still be mentally caught up on their last poor effort. TCU has been great, 9-2 overall and it plays with revenge at home. The pick: Note as well that the Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue here. While the outright is possible, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* play on TCU. |
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01-05-21 | Jazz v. Nets -3 | Top | 96-130 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: No Kevin Durant? No problem! The Nets are floundering right now and I think the rest of the teams steps up and answers the call here at home finally without KD in the line-up. The Jazz have been playing a bit better, but they're definitely inconsistent and thin after Mitchell and Gobert. The pick: Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more SU/ATS losses. Utah is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 road games after scoring 130 or more points in a SU/ATS victory (won 130-108 over the Spurs.) Bank on the desperate home side pulling away down the stretch. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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01-04-21 | Winthrop v. Charleston Southern +14 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Winning can lead to complacency. Especially among young players. Winthrop has jumped out to a big 7-0 start, but I believe it'll finally get caught flat-footed here and leave the door open just wide enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. The Buccanneers are only 1-5. The Eagles are perfect so far, but there have been a few very close calls. The pick: Charleston Southern has been competitive in defeat and it won't be lacking for motivation today. This is a revenge game as well. One player to keep your eyes on tonight for Charleston Southern is Phlandrous Fleming, who managed 19 points with 10 rebounds and three assists in his team's most recent setack to Hampton on December 22nd. Winthrop is the better team, but the overall situation sets up well for the home side. I'm not predicting an outright, but I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* BIG SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR on Charleston Southern. |
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01-03-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8.5 | Top | 123-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington finally broke into the win column over the Timberwolves last time out, but I expect an immediate return to mediocrity here. The Nets started 2-0, but they've since gone 1-3. They've rested starters and had to deal with some COVID issues over the last week, but they're ready to roll tonight and I expect this high-powered team to lay the hammer down after this scuffling stretch. The pick: Russell Westbrook is out again for Washington, which isn't a good thing at all for the Wizards over the short or the long-term. Brooklyn has posted at least 118 points in its last five vs. this Wizards defense, and I expect an even bigger offensive explosion here. The Wizards are a poor 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven as a road dog and I like the home side to take advantage of that. Lay the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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01-03-21 | Southern Illinois +11.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 11-0, but it hasn't played since before the New Year and I think it'll come out a bit flat here and look past its lowly opponent. Drake beat Indiana State in back-to-back games most recently, while the Salukis enter off their first loss of the season 84-72 to Evansville. Southern Illinois has six players which average at least 7.9 PPG, led by Marcus Domask with 18.1 per contest. The pick: Drake was down at the half in each of its games vs. the Sycamores, only to come back and not only win, but also go on to cover. The Bulldogs perfect record to this point puts a big red target on their backs - look for this under the radar Salukis side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Illinois. |
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01-01-21 | Jacksonville -3.5 v. Kennesaw State | Top | 62-57 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville is 6-4 and Kennesaw State is 3-5. Jacksonville has played the stiffer competitoin to this point, most recently coming off a 70-46 loss to K-State. Corey Romich was a bright spot in defeat with ten points and five boards. The pick: Kennesaw State has lost three in a row, most recently an 81-71 setback to Mercer. These teams numbers are similar, but Jacksonville has faced the better competition and note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine road game after failing to score 50 points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. I'm laying the short points. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Jacksonville. |
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12-31-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +20.5 | Top | 106-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Is Boise State the better team? It's 6-1, so of course it is. San Jose State is just 1-4. Am I suggesting that you play the Spartans on the moneyline? Of course I'm not, I'm suggesting that you grab all these points, because from a situational standpoint, this one sets up brilliantly for the underdog in my opinion. The pick: Boise State enters off an 89-52 win over New Mexico, and note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS victory. San Jose State enters off an 85-52 loss at Utah State, and note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss. This is the first game of a two-game set between the teams, with the other coming on January 3rd. Look for the Spartans to keep this one competitive until the end. Grab the points. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on San Jose State. |
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks come in off back-to-back wins, hammering the Bucks at home, and then beating the Cavaliers by nine points on the raod as an underdog. The Raptors on the other hand enter absolutely desperate to reverse their fortunes after starting the season 0-3. Let's face it, Toronto isn't going to be the top team in the East this year. Or for a while. The Raptors are rebuilding and the faster the fan base realizes that, the better off they'll be mentally (I'm from Canada originally, so I hear it a lot about the Raptors.) The pick: One mistake that many novice bettors makes is to "overreact" at the start of the season. And that's the case here. Yes, Toronto is going to have many issues moving forward for a while, but it's still loaded with talent and after the poor start to the season, I'm expect to see the Raptors best effort so far here tonight. With games at Indiana and Atlanta upcoming, I think the young Knicks get caught looking ahead as well. Look for Toronto to go up early, keep the foot on the gas throughout and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. This is a 10* BULLDOZER on the Toronto Raptors. |
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12-30-20 | Lakers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: So here's an interesting matchup between two teams which have gotten out to decent early starts. The Spurs are 2-1, and they've gone 3-0 against the spread. The Lakers had the game vs. Portland on Monday, but now the defending champs hit the road to play two games at San Antonio, including another one on New Year's Day. The NBA will do that a lot this year of course, having teams play back-to-back in the same arena, as to cut down the travel time and potential exposure to COVID 19. We've only played a few games into the season, so it's a little difficult to get firm reads on every team at this point. Obviously we know the Lakers are good and they're going to be contending for another Championship at the end, more than likely anyways. The pick: The Spurs though weren't given much of a chance by the bookmakers befor the season started, but as I've pointed out, they've gotten out to the decent start to the season, going 2-1 straight up and perfect against the spread. The Lakers are going to have a big red target on their back now every night, even more than they did before they actually won the Championship, so they're going to get each team's best effort almost every given night. And I do think the Spurs come to play here. Note as well that San Antonio is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine after two or more whole nights of rest in between games. I think the home side will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the handful of points it's been afforded. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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12-30-20 | Murray State +4 v. Belmont | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State is 4-3 and 1-1 in the OVC, while Belmont is 8-1 and 2-0. These two teams dominate this conference. These teams have both won the conference championship over the last two years. The Racers have lost all three true road games they've played, and with six of their first seven OVC contests away from friendly confines, today's road game definitely takes on added importance for Murray State. The pick: Belmont comes in off a 72-63 win over Evansville, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU victories in a row. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but I like the "hungrier" dog in this fight. A great situational play on Murray State. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Murray State. |
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12-29-20 | Knicks +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-2. The Knicks come to town confident after their 130-110 blowout destruction of the Bucks on the 27th. Cleveland is inexplicably 3-0 to start the year. Most recently the Cavaliers destroyed Philadelphia 118-94. Cleveland has plenty of young and hungry talent, but I think its early record is more a case of team's not taking the Cavs too seriously right now and looking past their opponent. And that's not going to happen with the Knicks. New York doesn't face too many teams in the season that's on the "same level" as it, so this is a golden opportunity to try and string a couple wins in a row. The pick: The Cavs have a night off after this, before then embarking on a six-game road trip starting on New Year's Eve in Indianapolis. You can throw the ATS stats out the window in this one. As primarily a situational handicapper, I do indeed feel this one sets up extremely well for the hungry underdog visiting side. Clearly the outright win is a possibility, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Knicks. |
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12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Rockets will fall to 0-2 here after losing 128-126 to the Blazers in OT to open the season. The Nuggets come in ready to now turn the page after starting 0-2, losing in OT to the Kings, before then falling to the Clippers at home in their last one. With a series of difficult road contests upcoming, I look for the Nuggets to come out extremely focussed here. The Rockets are still dealing with several issues on and off the court (COVID mostly), and I expect them to struggle in this difficult road venue and versus this now very hungry home side. The pick: Note that Denver has performed very well in this spot for bettors as well, going 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points, while Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. Houston doesn't have a big man to handle the Nuggets' size and that's going to be a big difference-maker today as well. Lay the points. This is a 10* ATS 'BLOOD-BATH' on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-28-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a back-to-back between the teams. Last night Drake won its ninth straight (both SU and ATS) vs. the Sycamores by a score of 81-63. The Bulldogs are the better team on paper here, averaging 86.4 PPG and allowing 60. Indiana State only trailed by one at half-time, but a slow start to the second-half doomed the Sycamores after that. I actually had a play on Indiana State yesterday afternoon, and while that big play failed to deliver, I'm back on the Sycamores here in this bounce-back position. The pick: Previous to the loss to the Bulldogs, Indiana State had won two in a row. It averages 69.4 PPG and it allows 69.2. All good things do come to an end though and with a few days off before a January 3rd home and home set vs. the lowly Southern Illinois Salukis, I think the stage is now set for Drake to finally have a mental lapse here. The Sycamores are definitely the more motivated side here and I think they can keep this one competitive not only for just the first half this time, but for the entire game. Grab the points, expect a "nail-biter!" This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State. |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: One of the biggest mistakes that novice gamblers can make is "overreacting" to Week 1 results, or after the first few games of the regular season. Are the Mavericks as bad as their 0-2 record would indicate in the early going? Obviously not. Does the Clippers 2-0 record mean that they're now the team to beat in the West? Probably, but again, let's not overreact after a couple of games. LA had two "revenge" games on its plate right out of the gate this year, beating the Lakers on Opening Night, and then beating the Nuggets in Denver on Thursday, avenging the playoff series loss. However, with those two very emotional contests out of the way and now back to play their first official "home" game, I think the Clippers come out flat here. The pick: And that's going to be bad news vs. Luca Doncic and the winless Mavericks in my opinion. Both teams are loaded with talent, but I think this one sets up fantastically from a situational stand point for Dallas and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs do indeed point to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 9-0 and 7-0 ATS. They say all good things have to come to an end, and I think that time is now for Drake. Overall it averages 86.4 PPG, while allowing 60.0. On paper, obviously Drake is the better team. Indiana State is 3-2, averaging 69.2 PPG and conceding 69.4. As I said, on paper, clearly Drake is the better team. The pick: Indiana State though won't be rolling over here. Note that it's 3-0 SU at home. Drake's early competition needs to be called into question here as well, as it enters off an 88-55 win over lowly North Dakota. Note that this is a back-to-back set as well, with each team playing here again tomorrow. I'll point out though that the Sycamores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. In a contest which I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points in what I feel to be a prime situational spot wagering position for the home side. This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State. |
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12-26-20 | Pacers v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana went 3-0 in the preseason and it won its season opener, albeit over the Knicks. Now it hits the road and I think it'll finally have a letdown here. Chicago won its final three preseason games, but unlike its opponent today, it got destroyed in its opening game and because of that, I like the Bulls to play with much more heart today. The pick: This is a classic "look-ahead" spot for the Pacers as well, as they have a back-to-back set at home against the Celtics starting tomorrow night. And to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as Chicago lost all four games in this series last year. I think the outright is possible, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. This is a 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the Chicago Bulls. |
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12-26-20 | Green Bay +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix are winless on the year and they come in hungry after a 74-62 loss to Milwaukee in their last game. The Raiders on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after beating Detroit 85-72 last time out. Losing isn't fun, and after starting the season 0-6, I don't think we have to question the visiting sides motivation levels this evening. Overall Wisconsin has averaged 66.2 PPG and conceded 83. The pick: THe Raiders have won four straight, as they average 79.6 PPG and allow 67.2. Clearly Wright State is the better team, but I think that it gets caught complacent and I believe it'll take the foot off the gas in the second half as it looks ahead to its game against this very same team tomorrow night. Finally note that the Phoenix are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference road games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range. A few too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side that's desperate to break into the win column. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Green Bay. |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This isn't the same Clippers team which blew a 3-1 series lead in the bubble last season to the Nuggets, as a few new faces are on the team, while others have moved on. Denver has also gone through some transition, but for the most part returns its main core of players, while also picking up a few nice pieces in the offseason. Should we overreact to the first game of the season? The Clippers beat the Lakers on Opening Night, while the Nuggets lost in OT at home to the Kings. Anything can happen on Opening Night, I think that Denver likely got caught looking past its lowly opponent to this more high-profile contest. The Clippers return home to play three-straight after this as well vs. the Mavericks, Wolves and Blazers, so this now sets up as a small look-ahead spot for LA. The pick: Denver has two whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Houston. Of course LA would love to revenge that series loss, but the second game of the regular season isn't the best place to prove a point. The Clippers were more excited and focused to beat the Lakers in my opinion, and couldn't care less about that series loss to Denver. This one means a lot more to the Nuggets than it does the Clippers, as they'll be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start at home. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-25-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawkeyes are 7-1, including a 70-55 win over Purdue last time out. The GOlden Gophers are 7-1 overall (0-1 in conference play though) and most recently coming off a 90-82 win over Saint Louis. The Hawkeyes are led by Luka Garza, who averages 28.4 points and 9.1 boards per game. Both teams allow roughly the same amount of points (Iowa concedes 70.6, while Minnesota allows 73.5), so let's call that deparment a "wash." The pick: Marcus Carr leads the charge for the Golden Gophers, he had 32 points in the win over the Billikens. Garza's an amazing player, but note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as an underdog in the +5.5 to +8.5 points range. I like Carr and company to battle tough here as they look to pull off the upset at home on X-Mas Day, while avoiding the 0-2 conference hole to open the season. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-23-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams were bounced in the first round of the playoffs last year. Utah has a great core around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. THe Jazz gave up an average of 108.9 PPG last year, which was one of the best. The Jazz have gotten stronger in the offseason and note that they were No. 1 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting 38.5 percent from range. The pick: Portland is healthy and ready to go as well. The Blazers are an offense first team, as they're defense was among the worst in the league last year (allowed 116.2 PPG). Utah's defense is fresh and I think it'll slow down Portland's shooters and at the same time, I look for the visiting side to dictate the flow as well. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz. |
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12-23-20 | Providence v. Butler +1 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Butler. |
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12-22-20 | Nebraska +18.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm looking at this game, looking at each teams' records, looking at what they did in their most recent matchup against each other, looking at what they did in their last games and leading up to this moment. I'm looking at each team's schedule to see who they play next. Wisconsin is great obviously, it's 6-1 overall and 6-0 at home. Nebraska is 4-3 overall and just 2-4 against the spread on the road, but I think there are some great situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Huskers here, and while I'm not going to call for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. First off, Nebraska does play with revenge here after it lost 81-64 to Wisconsin in their last matchup back on February 15th, just before the Pandemic hit. This sets up as a look-ahead spot for Wisconsin as well, with a big nationally televised Christmas Day matchup at Michigan State. Nebraska lost to Creighton 98-74, but then it bounced back with a confidence-building 110-64 win over Doane in its most recent action. The pick: I'm primarily a situational or motivational handicapper, the actual players on the court or on the field usually don't even factor into my decision making process when handicapping, and for me, this particular contest definitely sets up well for Nebraska. I think Wisconsin comes in complacent, I think it gets caught looking ahead to its game vs. the Spartans, and I like Nebraska here in this revenge spot and getting the points. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. |
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12-21-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner -5 | Top | 46-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacred Heart Pioneers are 1-2 and the Wagner Seahawks are 0-3. Sacred Heart bounced-back from a loss to LIU, to then beat LIU 87-72 in the rematch on Thursday. Wagner though has faced much stiffer competition in the early going, losing 78-45 to Seton Hall, and then falling twice to Bryant, 74-62 and 81-75. Wagner was led by 29 points and eight boards from Elijah Ford in the most recent setback and it's gotten progressively better with each outing this year, despite the win/loss record. The pick: Note as well that Wagner is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more SU losses in a row. Look for the Pioneers to once again struggle on the road here and look for the hungrier home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points and expect a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wagner. |
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12-20-20 | Providence +3.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Providence has won two straight. The Friars come in fresh as their last two games have been postponed due to COVID issues. In their last game they beat TCU 79-70 as one-point underdogs. Seton Hall comes in off a 70-63 win over Marquette. Providence is well-balanced, led by David Duke it averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 70.3. The pick: The Pirates have won four in a row. Seton Hall is led by Sandro Mamukelasvhili, as the Pirates average 76.5 PPG and allow 70.3. These teams are very evenly matched, but I like the well-rested Friars to pull off the minor upset here (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Providence. |
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12-19-20 | Drexel v. Fairleigh Dickinson +4 | Top | 85-68 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 1-5 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights to pull off the minor upset in this one. Drexel comes in off a very satisfying 81-77 win over St. Joe's in its last outing and I think a predictable letdown is imminent here. Overall the Dragons average 68 PPG and they allow 63. The pick: The Knights come in with momentum, beting Central Connecticut State 79-71 for their first win of the year last time out. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 72 PPG and it's allowing 82.8. I'll point out though that Drexel is an extremely poor 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Fairleigh Dickinson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against a team with a losing road record. The Knights have faced some stiff competition this yar (Rutgers, Providence) and they play better at home than on the road. And I think they're the much hungrier dog in this fight. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Fairleigh Dickinson. |
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12-18-20 | Drake v. South Dakota +6.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-0 Drake Bulldogs come in complacent and caught flat vs. this hungry 1-5 South Dakota team in my opinion. The Bulldogs early numbers are skewed due to the level of competition they've faced (averaging 84 and conceding 60.2.) The Coyotes are averaging 68.7 PPG and allowing 76. The pick: Drake smashed Air Force 81-53 at home in its last outing, but with two straight "cream puffs" at home before the X-Mas Break (Chicago State and North Dakota), I think the Bulldogs get caught looking ahead here. South Dakota lost to Drake 69-53 in late November, so the "revenge factor" comes into play here as well. I like the hungry underdog home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on South Dakota. |
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12-17-20 | St. Joe's +2 v. Drexel | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Joes lost to Auburn in OT to open the season, and then it lost by 22 to Kansas immediatley after. The Hawks have had to deal with some COVID issues over the last couple of weeks, so they come in rested/focused and prepared. Drexel is 3-2 so far, but it's competition is suspect for sure. Last year the Dragons were 14-19. The Hawks have plenty of veteran talent, led by Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly. The pick: Saint Joseph's is being undervalued in this spot. Yes, we have more to draw upon from Drexel, but as mentioned above, its competition to this point has been far from difficult. The trend in the early going for CBB teams dealing with COVID issues is that they've struggled a bit, but I'm bucking that trend here. The Hawks have a deep and talented group and this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. While the outright win is obviously in play here, I'll still recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SLAM-DUNK on St. Joseph's. |
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12-16-20 | Montana +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Montana. |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte +12 v. Davidson | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do expect this one to be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Charlotte is 1-3 and Davidson is 3-2. The 49ers loss to Appalachian State last time out. Davidson comes in off victories over UNLV and Georgia Southern. The Wildcats have been competitive this year, but consistency from game-to-game has been a concern in the early going. Davidson is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS victory. The pick: Charlotte's win/loss record is not indicative of how it's played. It's gotten progressively better and more competitive with each outing, losing 66-57 to East Carolina, 76-65 to Georgia State, before then beating SC State 78-40, before then falling 61-58 to the Mountaineers last time out. Note that the 49ers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight-up loss. No outright, but look for the hungrier 49ers to cmofortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Charlotte. |
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12-13-20 | Mercer v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 5-0 and Georgia Southern is 3-1. After three straight wins, the Eagles lost to a tough Davidson team last time out. The Bears have looked sharp in the early going, but I think these teams are very evenly matched. The pick: Mercer has also played four smaller schools during its 5-0 start, so its numbers are skewed. I think the Bears take a step back in this difficult road venue and I look for the Eagles to bounce back after falling to Davidson and improve to 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Georgia Southern. |
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12-12-20 | La Salle +3 v. Drexel | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: La Salle is the "hungrier" dog in this fight at 1-3. So far in the early going the Explorers are averaging 63.8 points and allowing 67.3. Drexel has won three in a row and enters at 4-1, averaging 69.8 PPG and conceding 60.8. On paper, clearly Drexel is the better team. The pick: But I'll caution on reading too much into any of these numbers at this point. In a normal season, it's difficult to properly assess a team until after a full month is played. These teams are just starting their seasons and clearly the oddsmakers also believe they're very evenly matched with a spread like this. La Salle though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 or more points in a victory in its last outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on La Salle. |
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12-11-20 | Marist +4.5 v. Canisius | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Marist is 2-0, coming off two close victories and I expect another battle until the final horn tonight as well vs. the Golden Griffins. Last year the Red Foxes were just 7-23 and they lost to Canisius twice. This is Canisius's first game of the year and while it did beat Marist twice last season, it still only finished 12-20 overall. Marist returns key players from last year's team and a major improvement is expected. Keep your eyes on Michael Cubbage, who averaged 13.5 PPG last year. The pick: The Golden Griffins return key players as well, but I think that chemistry is going to be an issue. Marist has two games under its belt and I think that's crucial here. Marist is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more SU victories in a row. The outright is possible obviously, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. |
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12-10-20 | UMKC v. Minnesota -18.5 | Top | 61-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Gophers are 5-0 straight-up, but they're only 1-3-1 ATS, failing to cover in three straight. I think that trend ends here in blowout fashion. UMKC is 2-2 so far, dropping its last two, most recently 62-58 to K-State. Minnesota enters off an 85-80 win over Boston College, getting 22 points from Marcus Carr. These teams aren't even close to being on the same level and there's no risk of the Gophers losing this game outright. Minnesota will win this game easily and I think also cover the spread at the same time as it looks to take advantage of this matchup, before tough upcoming games at Illinois and versus Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The pick: Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three straight ATS losses, while UMKC is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in a SU loss in its previous outing. The Gophers have one last chance to pad their stats before the meat of their schedule and I look for them to do just that. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-09-20 | California +5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal is 2-3 and I think it's going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 2-2 Pepperdine Waves. Cal has lost to Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA so far, while the Waves have lost to UCLA and SDSU. Both teams have struggled with stiffer competition and done well against the lower-tiered teams. The pick: The Waves were dominated in the second half in their loss to the Aztecs 45-26. Cal for the most part has been very competitive this year. The Golden Bears have responded well in this spot for bettors over the years though, as they're 12-4 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 58 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. There's only a handful of games left for these teams in the regular season and I just don't see a very big talent gap whatsoever between these clubs. I think it'll come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last and in a situation like that, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal. |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine +11 v. USC | Top | 56-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: USC is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. With Stanford coming to town this weekend, I think the Trojans take the foot off the gas in the second half and I like the 1-2 SU UC Irvine Anteaters to take advantage. USC comes in off its first loss of the year, a 61-58 setback to UConn, while UC Irvine enters off its first win of the year, a 104-54 win over La Sierra. The pick: USC is winning by an average margin of 11.2 PPG this year, but it's also just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 60 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Look for the hungry Anteaters to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* $UPER-$HOCKER on UC Irvine. |
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12-07-20 | Florida Atlantic v. North Florida +3.5 | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU is 2-2 and North Florida is 0-5. The Owls are coming off back-to-back victories, but I think they finally stumble here vs. this desperate Ospreys side. In the early going FAU is averaging 81.8 PPG and allowing 58.3. This is in large part due to the level of its early competition though obviously. The pick: The Ospreys average 61.8 PPG and they allow 82.8. UNF has faced some decent competition out of the gate, but after four-straight on the road and one neutral site game, a little home-cooking is just what the doctor ordered for the Ospreys. With a week off before another game at Stetson, I think FAU gets caught looking ahead and flat-footed here. I'm grabbing the points, but would not be shocked by the outright victory. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Florida. |
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12-06-20 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Kentucky is 1-2 and Georgia Tech is 0-2. Last year Kentucky won this game 67-53, setting this up as a revenge spot for the home side. The Wildcats have lost their last two games and after their disappointing setback to Kansas in their last outing, I believe they come out flat here. Richmond also upset Kentucky 76-64 as a 6.5 point dog this year. The picks: Georgia Tech is desperate as it looks to avoid the 0-3 hole. The Yellow Jackets can smell the blood in the water, as this Kentucky team is just not the same as in year's past after losing its top six scorers from a year ago. Additionally note that Kentucky is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Public perception has driven this road line larger than it should be. Outright is possible, but I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can in the end. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Georgia Tech. |