Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-27-21 | Rockies v. Brewers -179 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm going to lay the price here and expect a winner of the "rocking chair" variety, similar to the Brewers rather simple 10-4 win yesterday. The visitors go with the volatile Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-4, 6.12 ERA), who gave up six runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Over his last three starts, Gonzalez has now allowed 18 runs. The pick: The home side counters with the improving Eric Lauer (1-3, 5.21), who gave up three run over five innings in a no-decision to these very Rockies last week. It was a good start on the road. I think Lauer can build off that performance, and note that he owns a sharp 3.56 ERA in all "day" games this year. Finally, note that the Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight after scoring ten or more runs in a home victory in their previous outing. Lay the price, expect a comfortable victory. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Brewers. |
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06-27-21 | Angels v. Rays -140 | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: I love the Rays to build off their 13-3 win here yesterday. The visting side goes with Pablo Sandoval (2-2, 3.69 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a win over the Tigers on Saturday. Sandoval has been decent this year, but note that his ERA rises to 4.45 on the road. The pick: I like Ryan Yarbrough (4-3, 4.59) to bounce back here after allowing ten runs combined over his last two outings. Tampa is rolling, and it's 7-2 in its last nine after a home victory in which it scored ten or more runs in. I think that Sandoval struggles in this difficult interleague venue, while I expect Yarbrough to get back on track in this favorable matchup. This is an 8* COACHES CORNER on the Rays. |
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06-26-21 | A's v. Giants -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants won last night and I think they're going to come out fired up here and find a way to do it again. Alex Wood (6-3, 4.09 ERA) is coming off a crummy start for the Giants, but I still love him here over confirmed "gas can" Frankie Montas 7-7, 4.79) for the A's. Montas was lit up in his last outing and he's struggled on the road. The pick: San Francisco is also 7-2 in its last nine after shutting out its opponent in a home victory in its last outing. Considering the circumstances, I think we're getting an excellent price here on the home side. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Giants. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 snuck "over" the number. Game 2 fell "under" the number in the Clippers 106-92 victory. I think this back and forth pattern continues as far as the total is concerned, as I expect this one to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Phoenix has to push the pace and get the Clippers playing from behind. The Suns can't afford to sit back and try to beat LA at its own game. The pick: Also note that Phoenix has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 95 points or less in. Expect this faster-paced Game 4 to produce a lot of points on the board. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Suns/Clippers. |
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06-26-21 | Phillies +222 v. Mets | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: Jacob DeGrom is 7-2 with a 0.50 ERA. He's throwing better right now than I've ever seen any pitcher throw in my life. The only downside for deGrom is that he plays on the Mets. The Mets are inconsistent at the plate, and they have a poor bullpen. The pick: Zach Eflin is just 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA for the Phillies. He's taken a step back this year. The Phillies also have a poor bullpen, but I still think that Eflin has a big opportunity for a bounce-back performance against this "on again, off again" Mets' offense. deGrom is going to have a letdown at some point, and I say that some point is today. Grab the value on the hungry visiting side! This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Phillies. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 snuck "over" the number, but I expect Game 2 to be more of a defensive affair. Overall, the playoffs have been low-scoring compared to the regular season. The Bucks were the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. But the Hawks have advanced to this point mainly because of their suprising defensive play. That defense wasn't at it's best in Game 1, but it came up big when it had to at the end of the game. The pick: Milwaukee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 115 or more points in as well. Atlanta comes out aggressive here, and so does Milwaukee. Expect that to translate into a defensive battle in Game 2. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER On the UNDER. |
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06-25-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -170 | 5-4 | Loss | -170 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: After losing here 8-2, I like the Cards to bounce back on Friday. I actually had a play on Chad Kuhl and the Pirates on the "run line" option last night, but here I'm going the other way and laying the price. I actually think this line could be a lot larger consider the circumstances and the talent discrepancy between the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.42 ERA) who has yet to taste a victory in his short MLB career. He's looked better over his last two games, but I still think he's going to struggle against this revenge-minded home side and difficult overall road venue. The pick: The home side counters with Kwang Hyun Kim (1-5, 3.60), who gave up one run over four innings in a double-header against Atlanta. He's now allowed four runs or less in all 11 starts this year. He's been at his best at home as well, going 1-1 with a 2.72 ERA. I'm laying the price, but expecting a big blowout! This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals. |
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06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -159 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm not going to break down the cast of characters on each team. If you're wagering on this contest, you almost assuredly know the strengths and weaknesses of each team and how they got to this point. So why is Tampa going to win Game 7 here on its own ice? I don't think that its experience at this level can be overlooked. New York is in unchartered territory right now. The pick: Tampa is 26-8-2-0 at home, while New York is just 16-17-3-1 on the road this season. The last time these teams played here, the Bolts won 8-0. I don't expect such a ridiculous lop-sided destruction here in Game 7, but I do expect it to be convincing. Lay the price with confidence. This is a 10* GAME 7 BEST OF THE BEST on the Lightning. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers -1 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I just think the Clippers are going to dig deep and deliver the goods in this Game 3. They won't be panicking, as they've already been here in their two previous series, going down 0-2, only to then rally for a series victory. I got down early and have an unfavorable line, and while the Clippers are now the slight home dog, I still think that the change in venue is just what Paul George and this veteran-laden Clippers team needs to get back into this series. The pick: Game 2 was tight, and the Clippers had their chances at the end. I say Game 3 is controlled start to finish by the home side. Chris Paul won't be at 100% health and I think LA's competent guards can slow him down even further. For all the reasons listed above, the play is LA. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Clippers. |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series has been dominated by great goaltending and tough defensive play. Las Vegas was favored to win this series by quite a lot, but the high-powered Knights are now on the ropes as they try to figure out this tough Habs' defense. Las Vegas was the No. 1 defensive team in the league this year, but it was also the No. 3 on the offensive end. The pick: Montreal is going to have its hands full here against a Las Vegas team playing with deperation. Montreal has been good offensively throughout the playoffs though and will have extra opportunities on the back end with the Knights' defenders having to constantly join the attack. Game 6 (to me!), just screams over. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Knights/Habs. |
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06-24-21 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Pirates have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. That said, I'll lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs on the "run line" option. The Cards have lost three straight and they face Chad Kuhl (1-4, 5.66 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run over six innings and striking out four in a victory over the Indians. The pick: Kuhl has struggled, but I think he can build off his last performance and get the better of his counterpart Carlos Martinez (3-8, 6.62), who most recently got shelled for eight runs over three innings in a loss to the Braves. Martinez has now been rocked for at least five runs in three of his last four outings. I think Kuhl on the RUN LINE is the correct call here. This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Pirates. |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks are averaging 106.3 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 105 points in the playoffs, while the Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 107.9 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allowing 102.3 points so far in the post-season. The Bucks were one of the favorites to advance in the East before the season started, but the Hawks rise to this point is nothing short of spectacular. Clearly, Atlanta has already exceeded expectations to this point. The pick: I think Milwaukee is going to win this series. I don't think it'll sweep Atlanta though. That said, I do think that the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is a major matchup issue for the Hawks and I believe that Atlanta is going to struggle down the stretch of this opener. I'm laying points and expecting a comfortable cover for the home side in Game 1. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a back and forth series, but after getting blown out 8-0 in Game 5, I believe that the Islanders are going to double-down on the defensive end in an attempt to stave of elimination. The Isles have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a five goals or greater road loss to an opponent as well. The pick: Tampa looked not only great on the offensive end in scoring those eight goals, but it also looked great defensively. Do I expect the Bolts to explode for another eight goals tonight? Of course not, that was an outlier. Do I believe that Tampa's going to play "lock down" defense and get great goaltending again? That's a given. So after the offensive explosion in Game 5, Game 6 sets up as a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-23-21 | Rockies -109 v. Mariners | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies lost a tight 2-1 affair here last night in the opener. They've now dropped three straight. This is a pitching matchup which favors the visitors though. Despite German Marquez (5-6, 4.26 ERA) struggling on the road this season, he comes in on top form, most recently going six shutout innings against the Brewers on Thursday. It was his fifth quality start out of his last six trips to the hill and he now owns an 82/39 K/W over 82.1 innings of work. The pick: Justus Sheffield (5-6, 5.65) got destroyed for seven runs over five innings in a loss to Minnesota on Wednesday. He's been rocked for at least two home runs in three straight starts. I say at this price, Marquez is the correct call. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Rockies. |
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06-22-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Kyle Freeland (0-2, 9.58 ERA) gave up five runs over four innings against San Diego on Wednesday. Over 20.2 innnings, he has a poor 2.27 WHIP and 12/11 K/W. Clearly, the only way Freeland can go is "up" from here. That said, the sample size is still way too small at this point and he draws a favorable matchup here against this poor Seattle offense. The pick: Chris Flexen (6-3, 4.12) comes in off a great start, going eight scoreless against the Twins. Of concern though is that he has just 44 strikeouts over 67.2 innings of work. I don't trust either starter, but believe that Freeland's "upside" is where the value lies here. This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Rockies. |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens +210 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-1 | Win | 210 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I love the Habs chances here. I think they have much more than just a "punchers" chance in this one. These teams' playoff numbers are almost identical. There's been no clear advantage for either team. On home ice or on the road. The pick: Montreal though is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge an OT home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. Great value on a great team. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Canadiens. |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers ran out of gas in the fourth quarter, but despite only shooting 45 percent from the floor, they still had a shot at upsetting the Suns in Game 1. Phoenix didn't look overly impressive and I believe the Clippers can make the necessary adjustments to not only make Game 2 even more competitive, but possibly even pull off the straight-up upset here. The pick: The continued absence of Chris Paul won't help this Suns team over the long-term. He'll likely return soon, but he's out again tonight. So is Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers, but LA is deep and experienced and I believe it throws it best shot at the Suns tonight. That said, grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Clippers. |
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06-21-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: 17 losses in a row for the Diamondbacks. As bad as a team is, when a losing streak gets as long as this (and the same goes for a winning streak), it becomes unrealistic to continue much longer. The Diamondbacks have been playing hard of late though and I believe they're in line to finally break this string of futility. Off a 9-8 loss here last night to the Dodgers, Merrill Kelly (2-7, 5.40 ERA) will get the nod for the home side. He's off a loss to the Giants, but note that he's been better at home with a 3.99 ERA, than on the road with a 6.71 ERA. The pick: Brett Anderson (2-4, 4.24) is off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Reds, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. He had nine strikeouts, which was a season-high. Previous to that he'd not struckout more than four in any start though. Also note, while he's 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA at home, he's just 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA on the road. If not now, WHEN for the Diamondbacks! I'm standing in front of this train and say that this streak ends here and now! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Diamondbacks. |
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06-21-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 0-8 | Loss | -171 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: The same reasoning behind why I laid the price for Montreal on the puck-line last night, is the same reasoning that I'm using here for the Islanders. Game 5, tied 2-2. This series has been incredibly even. Both series have. For the most part, they've been very defensive affairs and that should once again be the case here. The pick: I just can't see the Lightning running up the score here even if they do get the lead. In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals. This is an 8* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Islanders. |
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06-21-21 | Austria v. Ukraine OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. They come into the final match level on points and goal difference. Ukraine holds the tie-breaker though with one extra goal scored over Austria, but for either to advance, they're going to have to win outright today, and not settle for the the push. The pick:Ukraine though has so far been decent offensively, creating 4.52 expected goals (xG) through its first two matches against the Netherlands and North Macedonia. Ukraine's defense though has been shaky, as the Dutch created 2.05 xG vs. them, while North Macedonia even posted a 1.50 xG. Austria has a ton of value in this match and while a draw would likely get it into the next round, I think it'll take advantage of this weak Ukraine defense and just try to keep the momentum rolling, instead of playing super strategically. I expect each team to push for an outright win. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Ukraine/Austria. |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams are evenly matched. If you check out their year long stats, Las Vegas has the superior numbers, but since the playoffs have started, these teams are in fact evenly matched up and down the line. The pick: The mighty Las Vegas offense has for the most part been cold in this series and I don't expect anything to change here either in Game 4. The Canadiens have the blue-print to success, and everything points to this one coming down to the wire once again. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens on the PUCKLINE. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Some cappers put a lot of stock into where the public money is going. Most sharps are contrarian by nature. When there's just a few games remaining though, those percentages of public money become skewed. I think they're much more accurate during the regular season. Most of the public money is on the Hawks, but in this case I think the public is correct. The pick: This is going to be a battle. It has been all series. Very back and forth and very close. Nothing's going to change here. Note though that the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 100 points or less in. This one comes down the final moments, so grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks. |
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06-20-21 | Tigers +144 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 144 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Detroit to bounce back in the finale of this four-game series, while I think LA will have a letdown after winning the first three. Previous to losing three straight, the Tigers had won three in a row. Detroit has to be feeling confident sending Casey Mize (4-4, 3.49 ERA) to the hill, as he's now given up three or fewer runs in nine straight outing and he's gone six or more innings in eight of those starts. The pick: Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.98) has been flat-out terrible this season for the Angels. He most recently got blasted for seven runs over 2.1 innings on Monday in a loss to the A's. He's failed to finish six innings in six straight starts. The final nail in the coffin for the Angels today is the fact that Detroit is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge three straight losses against an opponent. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Tigers. |
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06-20-21 | A's +133 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
The setup The A’s lost to the Yankees on Saturday for the first time in nine games. Today it is Manaea vs Montgomery on the hill for the Yankees. Montgomery is 3 -1 with an era of 4.20 for the season, but NY has a habit of winning when he is on the mound. Montgomery hasn’t often pitched late into the game, but he does have the Yankees stellar bullpen to back him up. Manaea in his last four games has only given up two earned runs. Manaea can and will need to pitch deep into the game as the A’s bullpen has been so-so of late. Oakland’s offense has been potent while sweeping both KC and the Angels. It is surprising considering their lineup how light hitting the Yankees are this season. The wager Oakland is an underdog here. Take the A’s to win. |
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06-20-21 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
The setup The A’s lost on Saturday for the first time in nine games. Today it is Manaea vs Montgomery on the hill. Montgomery is 3 -1 with an era of 4.20 for the season, but NY has a habit of winning when he is on the mound. Montgomery doesn’t often pitch late into the game. Manaea in his last four games has only given up two earned runs, however Oakland’s bullpen has been so-so of late. Oakland has been scoring runs in bunches while sweeping KC and the Angels, and the total has edged up. Yankees have been beating up on struggling bullpens. The wager With Montgomery on the hill, the A’s potent offense, and Oakland’s bullpen, look for the total to go over. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nets would have easily won this series if not for injuries to James Harden and Kyrie Irving. I don't think that Kevin Durant is the best basketball player of all time, but he's clearly been the best players in this series. Even better than the Bucks Giannis, who has played very well himself. But KD is going to be exhausted at this point and after the Game 6 collapse, I think the Bucks can smell the blood in the water. The pick: Further, note that Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 90 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory. Milwaukee's depth will prove to be the difference here vs. this wounded and undermanned Nets side. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a very defensive series so far, but I think that changes finally here. The Lightning won 2-1 in Game 3, but note that the Isles have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. The pick: These teams have two of the best goaltenders between the pipes, but the overall situation points to more of a wide-open affair. I expect the Islanders to go on the attack early and to push the pace from the opening face-off, until the final horn. As a result, look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* SEMI-FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-19-21 | Germany v. Portugal +0.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Germany looked less than impressive in its loss to France, while Portugal rolled to a 3-0 win over Hungary. The Portugese won't be taking the foot off the gas here in this difficult group, and the pressure really is on the Germans here (especially with an own goal from Mats Hummels deciding the contest in Munich.) The pick: Joachim Low's team struggled to create opportunities, and I think that'll again be the case here vs. Portugal. Germany will be desperate to avoid defeat, as a draw today wouldn't be the end of its chances. I'm laying the price and grabbing the spread on Portugal here. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Portugal +0.5. |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both opening games of this series have been competitive and I expect that to again be the case here as it shifts to Montreal. These teams are very evenly matched. On both ends of the ice. Goaltending is a "wash," and the Knights perceived advantage on the offensive end is also a "wash" here on the road in the Habs' own building. The pick: Montreal though is 7-2 in its last nine as a home underdog in the +125 to +145 range. I lay chalk when I think that the situation calls for it and while I do think Montreal has what it takes to take Game 3 outright, I'll lay the price and grab the insurance. This is an 8* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Canadiens. |
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06-18-21 | Twins -162 v. Rangers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a complete pitching mismatch. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.49 ERA) struck out eight over seven innings while allowing just two runs in a win over the Astros on Saturday. He has 81 K's over 77.1 innings of work and he's 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA on the road. The pick: Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.48) gave up eight runs over 2.2 innings in a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers in his last start. He's 1-4 with a 6.92 ERA in all night games. The Twins can't take anyone for granted after a terrible start to the season. They just broke a three-game slide with a 7-2 win at Seattle on Wednesday and I like them to build off that with their ace on the mound. Lay the price with confidnce, the play is Minnesota. This is a 10* AL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins. |
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06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: With a chance to end this series here and now, I like the Hawks chances to do just that. This is a well-coached team that continues to get underestimated, both by its opponents, and the bookmakers. It's Atlanta that is controlling the pace and flow of this series and I say nothing changes here in this crucial contest. Philadelphia has the best player on the floor in Joel Embiid, but the Hawks counter with the second best player in this series in Trae Young. The pick: The bottom line here though is that Atlanta's defense has been the difference-maker for it during the playoffs and I like the Hawks to continue that run here in this crucial Game 6. Outright win is completely possible obviously, but let's grab the points just in case. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Hawks. |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Kevin Durant is playing like a man possessed right now and with James Harden on the mend, the Nets will look to take advantage a shaky Bucks team that will be focussed on pushing the pace itself. THe Nets have played fantastic defense to this point, but fatigue plays a factor here in my opinion finally. The pick: And it won't be these talented offenses that suffer, it'll be their defensive play. These guys can run and gun all day, but when they get tired, it's their defensive play that goes down the tubes. With Giannis desperate to avoid defeat, look for this faster-paced affair to go "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Nets/Bucks. |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 118 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 went "under." Game 2 went "over." I think Game 3 follows suit here and will fall "under" once the final horn sounds. New York isn't going to win this series by turning this into a "track meet" with the Lightning. Instead, they'll have to grind out victories and wait for the Bolts to make the first mistake. The pick: These are two of the best defensive clubs in the NHL, and this decisive Game 3 has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair. Finally, take note that the Isles have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a two goals or greater road loss to an opponent. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Giants will not only win this game, but win by a significant margin. The visitors hand the ball to Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA), who returns from a stint on the injured list. Gallen struggled with control before landing on the IL, but he's now been given the green light to go here. He'll be on a short leash though, which definitely swings the odds in favor of Kevin Gausman today. The pick: Gausman (7-1, 1.43) is coming off his first loss of the season, giving up only two runs over four innings to the Nationals. To go along with his minuscule 0.78 WHIP, he also owns a sharp 97:18 K:BB over 81.2 innings of work. Look for Gausman to go deep, for Gallen to the get the hook early, and for the home side to post a big winning victory. This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Giants. |
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06-17-21 | Austria v. Netherlands -167 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Netherlands has the home advantage and while it didn't look overly impressive in its win over Ukraine, it still got the job done. I think it continues to build momentum here in this favorable matchup. If recent history is any precedence, then the Netherlands has to be feeling confident here, as they've won the last six straight head-to-head meetings. The pick: Austria is an organized team, but after punching its first Euro Cup victory ever over North Macedonia last time out, this absolutely sets up as a letdown spot in my estimation here. Conversely, Netherlands won't be taking anything for granted after its "close call" last time out. Considering the circumstances listed above, I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Netherlands. |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, the Golden Knights looked fantastic in Game 1, but I believe that Montreal can make adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. The Habs won't be panicking. Montreal has played extremely well, as it had to battle back from a 3-1 deficit to beat high-powered Toronto in seven games, before then sweeping the high-powered Jets in four. The pick: The Habs are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two-goals or greater loss to an opponent. Look for Montreal to at the very least, take this one into extras. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Canadiens. |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This series has been interesting. Atlanta has clearly played extremely well ever since it hired Nate McMillan as coach. This has been a back and forth series. Game 1 went "over," Game 2 went "under," Game 3 went "over" and Game 4 went "under." This pattern is now set to continue in this all-important Game 5 in my opinion. The pick: And that's based upon this strong trend that's emerged, but also because of a couple strong O/U ATS trends each team has exhibited in this position, as ATL has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while Philly has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Hawks/76ers. |
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06-16-21 | Yankees -154 v. Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Sometimes I completely dissect a play, getting into every tiny detail I can. Other times I think a simpler approach, an "eye test" approach is the best way to handicap a contest, and for me that's the case in this particular situation. Yes, the Jays are a dangerous hitting team, but the massive talent discrepancy on the mound between these starting pitchers has me all over Gerritt Cole and the Yanks this evening. Cole is 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA. The pick: Ross Stripling is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA for the Blue Jays and he continues to struggle as we head towards the mid-summer classic. Note that the Yanks are also 7-2 in their last nine road games by Cole with a money line in the -155 to -165 range. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Yankees. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite both Kyrie Irving and James Harden sitting this one out, I think Kevin Durant and his cast of role players can take this inconsistent Bucks team down to the wire. The pick: I think that Blake Griffin, Jeff Green and Joe Harris will have significantly better games at home. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but also note that Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 at home. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Nets. |
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06-15-21 | Rays v. White Sox -109 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams came into this three-game series red hot, but I think the White Sox will bounce back here after yesterday's 5-2 opening loss. Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.54 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he gave up three runs over three innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Wednesday. It was his second straight poor outing and I think he'll continue to strulggle, especially in this difficult road venue. The pick: Give me Dallas Keuchel (5-1, 4.14) who is coming off back-to-back quality starts. I love Keuchel here at this price, lay it with confidence. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the White Sox. |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Islanders on the "puck-line" in Game 1, and while we didn't even end up needing the extra goal-and-a-half in their 2-1 win, I think that the now revenge-minded Lightning are well worth the price of admission in Game 2. The Isles have been playing at an extremely high-level and a drop off is imminent here in my opinion. The pick: The bottom line is though, Tampa had its chances in Game 1. It has to be feeling confident here though as it's gone 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or no goals in. I'm laying the price and expecting a winner of the "rocking chair variety." This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Lightning. |
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06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Portugal is out to defend its title with an opening clash against Hungary in Budapest. Portugal will be determined to get out to a quick start here considering the competition in Group F, and because of that, I'm expecting a higher-scoring affair here. The pick: Both teams desperately need a victory here in this opening game Portugal has to face Germany after this, followed by France. It's now or never for Portugal. But an upset here for Hungary would clearly be monumental as well. I say these teams push the pace and this one flies over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* EURO-CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Hungary/Portugal. |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the extra time off here benefits the underdog. The Habs are going to try and win this game by a "war of attrition." Montreal is red hot and I think it has the unit to upset the Golden Knights at their own game. The pick: I had a play on the Islanders on the PUCK-LINE last night as well, but didn't even need the extra goal and a half. Here though, we very well could. In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Canadiens. |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +3.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks have been fantastic at making game-to-game adjustments since Nate McMillan took over as head coach. I think that happens again here. Atlanta is now desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole and I like the Hawks to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Note that Philly is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories in a row as well. The pick: ATL on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a 15 points or greater SU/ATS home loss to an opponent. Look for Trae Young to have a monster game for the Hawks' defense to finally show up as well. Outright is obviously possible, but grab the points. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Hawks. |
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06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work. The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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06-13-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -120 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a major mismatch on the mound. The Cubs are off a win yesterday over the Cards and I love them to do it again here. Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21 ERA) has struggled big time this year, especially on the road where he's just 1-4 with a 7.15 ERA. The pick: Zach Davies (3-3, 4.45 ERA) comes in off his best start of the season, allowing no runs over six innings in a victory over San Diego. Davies is a solid 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA at home. Lay this price, but expect a big home side blowout. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cubs. |
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06-13-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Up and down the line, these clubs are very evenly matched. The Islanders have the lockdown defense to push the Lightning to the brink in this series. I also like New York to push the Bolts in Game 1. Note that the Isles are 7-1 in their last eight when playing with three or more days of rest. The pick: Conversely, the Lightning are only 2-6 in their last eight when playing with five or more days of rest. I'm banking on the defensive-minded visiting side, to at the very least, take this one into extra time. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Islanders. |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks +2 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn looked like it was going to roll over the Bucks in this series, but then it shifted to Milwaukee and the Bucks somehow managed to hold on for the 86-83 victory. It was a back and forth game and really, Milwaukee did not win that one by very much obviously. But I think that Game 4 finally sets up as a great spot for the Bucks to bounce back with a convincing win. The pick: Brooklyn's role players aren't contributing and it's two super stars are now worn out, as the continued absence of "The Beard" is now taking its toll on the Nets. I like Giannis and company to lay the hammer down here. Outright win is obvious, but let's grab the points anyways. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the Bucks. |
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06-12-21 | Rangers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 12-1 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for near pick-em price. The pick: Trevor Bauer is 6-4 with a 2.40 ERA this year and he's been better at home than on the road for the Dodgers. Kolby Allard is 1-2 with a 3.41 ERA for the Rangers, but he's a poor 0-1 with a 5.51 ERA on the road. Lay the RUN LINE here on the home side and expect a blowout. This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Dodgers. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -186 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this game is going to come down to the wire. I really like the Clippers here to bounce back in Game 3, but the Jazz aren't going to go down without a fight. Donovan Mitchell was slightly injured at the end of Game 2 as well, so his health is a concern here for the visiting side. The pick: Instead of playing the spread option though, I'm going to lay the price here and take Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the money-line. The Clippers are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight when trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent, but as I say, we're not even worrying about the spread here. Lay the price and expect a win! This is an 8* MONEY-LINE DESTRUCTION LA Clippers. |
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06-12-21 | White Sox -171 v. Tigers | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the White Sox. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 101 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been an interesting series so far. Atlanta is an interesting "X Factor" that's come out of no where to be extremely competitive. Atlanta won Game 1 after jumping out to an early lead and then maintaining that pace throughout. I expect a similar game-plan here, as Philly will try to do everything it can to contol the pace and run its offense through its big man Joel Embiid. The pick: However, the shift in venue favors a faster-pace in Game 3, one which I absolutely believe will be dictated by the home side. One last thing from a trend based stand-point, note that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a ten points or greater road loss to an opponent. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER 76ers/Hawks. |
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06-11-21 | White Sox -160 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.88 ERA) and the White Sox are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Giolito is out for revenge here after giving up four runs over seven innings in a loss to Detroit at home last Saturday. He did go on to strike out nine. Overall Giolito has been great this year and a bounce-back is imminent in my opinion, as note that he's 2-1 with a tiny 2.79 ERA in all "night" games this year. The pick: Tarik Skubal (3-7, 4.33) gave up one run throwing opposite Giolito last Saturday for the victory, spanning five innings. He also had 11 strikeouts. Skubal has been better at home than on the road, but definitely better in all "day" games (2-1, 2.05), than in "night" contests (1-6, 5.91). Look for Giolito to come in fired up here and to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the White Sox. |
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06-11-21 | Italy -180 v. Turkey | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Turkey is the youngest team in the Tournament. Italy is a young team as well. Both clubs have played well coming into the Euro, but to open things off, I think the favored Italians will be prepared to take care of business on home soil. The last two head-to-head meetings between the countries have ended in a 1-1 draw, so Italy won't be taking anything for granted here either. The pick: Of their 13 international meetings leading up to this moment, the Italians have lost only once, while the Turks have drawn seven times. Turkey plays a "war of attrition" style, but I don't think that's going to cut it here against a highly-motivated Italian side. This tournament is going to feature a few big upsets, but not on Opening night. Lay the price with confidence. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Italy. |
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06-10-21 | Clippers +3 v. Jazz | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Clippers have a legitimate shot at taking Game 2 outright. LA let a lead slip away in Game 1, and it had a shot at sending it to OT late, but ultimately while LA covered in Game 1, it lost outright. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George continue to play well though and the Clippers have the defensive toughness to make adjustments and play better against Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz. The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it allowed 110 or more points in. I say that this one comes right down to the wire (at the very least) as well, and that's why I'm recommending to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACHES CORNER on the LA Clippers. |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: I expect Las Vegas to double down on the defensive end in an attempt to end this series here and now. The Knights stumbled in Game 1, losing 7-1, and while the lost Game 2 in OT, they've still been the much better team in this series from the get-go. Las Vegas is the No. 1 defensive team in the league, and I expect it to put on a classic clinic in front of the home town crowd here. The pick: Colorado is on the ropes and I think that it's fatigued majorily. Look for this one to fall well "under" once the final horn sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Avs/Knights. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +105 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays won 6-2 last night, getting five runs over the final two frames to secure the victory. Hyun Jin Ryu though is coming off his worst start of the year and I think he'll struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Dallas Keuchel has been as solid as Chicago could possibly hope for and he comes in off a victory. I say these pitchers are evenly matched, and that swings the value to the revenge-minded home side. The pick: Which is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a four runs or greater home loss to an opponent. Bank on Keuchel outlasting Ryu and for the home side to bounce back after yesterday's defeat. This is a 10* AL BLOOD-BATH on the White Sox. |