10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Great value here on the home side with the runline option. The 29-14 Dodgers are at the 23-22 Diamondbacks. The Dodgers enter off a 1-0 loss to the Nationals. This is the final series of a 10-day, 3-city road trip for LA. Arizona will look to take advantage, as it comes in on top form, having won 5 of its last 6. The D-Backs had yesterday off to prepare for this one, after sweeping the Royals in 2 games. The Dodgers go with Mitch White tonight. He's 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA. He gave up 3 runs over 2 1/3's innings vs. the Phillies on Saturday. Arizona goes with Humberto Castellanos, who is 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA. In 4 starts this month he's gone 2-0 with an 18:3 K:W. While the outright is possible, the value is just too good to turn down for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Arizona on the runline!

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10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Cleveland won the opener by a score of 6-1, before the Astros bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night. These starting pitchers are evenly matched though and I'm expecting a much more competitive battle in the finale. Cal Quantrill is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA for Cleveland. He most recently allowed 1 run over 7 innings in a win over the Reds. Christian Javier is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA for the Astros. He gave up 1 run over 6 innings to the Raners in his last outing. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* REDS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Both teams are struggling at the plate. I think this opening matchup is much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I like Luis Castillo here for the REds starting. He 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA, but he's faced Toronto 7 times in his career and has gone 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA. The Jays only average 3.68 RPG, so here's a perfect opponent for Castillo to get untracked against. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and who has never faced Cincinnati. I say this one gets decided late, or even in extras; because of that, let's grab the Reds on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

The Rangers fly in under the radar here. They're off a 3-game sweep of the Angels, which featured a dramatic walk off win on Wednesday. The Astros come in with little momentum after going just 1-2 in Boston. Texas plays with revenge here after losing 3 of 4 at home to the Astros at the start of the season. But this Rangers line-up is raking now, led by Corey Seager with 8 home runs. Glenn Otto is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA for the Rangers. He was lit up at Boston in his last start, but I think he settles down here. Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA for the Astrros. Texas comes in with confidence. It's seeing the ball well. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this; the play is Texas on the runline!

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10* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

The Tigers won the first game of this series by a score of 3-2, beore Tampa responded in yesterday's 8-1 victory. For the finale, I'm expecting a much tighter game. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for the Tigers, and he just threw 6.2 shutout innings in a win over Baltimore in his last outing. The home side counters with Drew Rasmussen, who also comes in off a gem, holding the Jays to just one run over 5.2 innings of work. These pitchers are evenly matched. As stated off the top, all signs point to this contest perhaps even going into extra innings; beause of that, let's lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket!

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8* MARINERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

Toronto took Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 6-2, but I expect a much tighter affair here on Tuesday. Both teams are in need of a win here, but in a contest that I think'll be decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The bottom line here is, I think Logan Gilbert is the correct call in this starting pitching matchup over Jose Berrios. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA, while Berrios is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA. The M's have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one; the play is Seattle on the runline option!

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10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOW)

The Angels just took 3 of 4 from the A's over the weekend, while the Rangers dropped 2 of 3 to Boston. Texas was blown out in the first 2, but then bounced back with a blowout win of its own on Sunday. LA took 3 of 4 in early April, so the Rangers are out for revenge this week. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the visitors, an dhe owns a 2.45 ERA over 5 starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who owns a 5.51 ERA. Texas has actually done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last 9 after scoring 10 or more runs in its previous game. This one will be decided late, or even in extras, so I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Rangers on the runline!

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9* MARINERS (RL BOB)

The Mariners are 16-19 and the Blue Jays are 18-17. Toronto is off a series loss in Tampa, and fell 3-0 on Sunday. The M's took 2 of threa the Mets over the weekend. Chris Flexen is just 1-5, despite a decent 4.24 ERA for the Mariners this year. Overall the Mariners have posted a decent 3.74 collective ERA. The Jays return home after a poor 2-7 road trip. Yusei Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA for the Jays. I believe these starters are a "wash." In a scenario like that, and in a contest that I expect to be decided late (or perhaps even in extra innings), let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Seattle on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The lowly Baltimore Orioles won't be lacking for motivation today after 3 straight losses to Detroit over the weekend. The Yanks come in complacent after winning 7 of their la 10, including a 5-1 win at the White Sox yesterday. Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA over 6 starts for New York, while Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA over 4 starts for the Orioles. Baltimore though has done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home. Conversely, the Evil Empire has gone just 4-6 ATS in its last 10 overall. Look for Baltimore to jump on on this complacent Yanks side and to possibly even win outright; the play is the Orioles on the runline option!

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10* CARDINALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

San Fran won the opener 8-2 and then St. Louis won 4-0 yesterday. I expect a much tighter game here in the finale, and that's why I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Carlos Rodon is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA for the Giants, but I expect regression to kick in sooner, rather than later. The Cards counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and who I like here in friendly confines. Note as well that St. Louis is actually 8-3 in its last 11 off a shutout home victory. For all the reasons listed above, the play is St. Louis on the runline!

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8* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The White Sox had won 7 of 8 before dropping the first 2 of this series. They fell 15-7 in the first game and 10-4 yesterday. I expect a much tighter affair here. Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA for the Yanks. He's been solid. Dallas Keuchel is 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA for the White Sox. He's uncharacteristically struggled so far. Let's not overreact to either starters' performance to this point though. Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge B2B losses to an opponent. To say this is a "revenge" game as well would be an understatement, as the Yanks have won 8 of the L9 in this series. I say this one comes down to the wire; grab the ChiSox on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I had a play on the Phillies on the runline last night and did not need the extra 1.5 runs. This game on Friday between the Mariners and Mets may follow suit, but once again the value here with getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Mets, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Mariners. The Mets are 9-0-1 in series this year, but regression is imminent at some point. Both starters are coming off losses. I think they're more evenly matched than what this large line is suggesting though. This one gets decided late or even in extras, so let's grab the Mariners on the runline option!

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8* PHILLILES RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

Philadelphia won 4-2 at Seattle yesterday, taking 2 of 3 from the Mariners, I believe the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling here. The Dodgers just lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates, including yesterday's 5-3 setback. These pitchers are a "wash" in my mind essentially. The Phillies see Zach Wheeler toe the slab, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson. Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA, while Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In fact, regression appears to be in order for Anderson in my estimation. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Phillies on the runline!

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10* ORIOLES (IL RL GOY)

The bottom line here is, I believe that the over-achieving Miles Mikolas is poised for some regression here after his sparkling start for the Cardinals. The Orioles have been decent, especially on the mound. They're 4th in the AL East currently. Spencer Watkins gets the nod to start things off for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 3.22 ERA over 5 starts this season, posting 10 K's and 10 walks. Mikolas is 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA over 6 games, with 28 K's and 7 walks. Interestinly though, the Cards are just 1-6 in their last 7 vs. the AL East. Watkins has been at his best on the road with a 2.70 ERA and in a contest that I believe could even go to extra innings, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the exrta 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline!

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10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (GOW)

Cleveland has won 7 of its last 8. It just took 3 of 4 from Toronto. The Guardians fly in under the radar here as well. The White Sox have won 5 in a row. They just finished sweeping the Red Sox, all tight games, including yesterday's 3-2 victory. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Guardians, while Michael Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA for the White Sox. Two good pitchers. Let's not overreact to their numbers at this point of the season, and instead classify them as a "wash." Chicago is overpriced here if that's the case. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline!

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10* NATIONALS RUNLINE (BOB)

Washington managed the 7-3 win here yesterday. I think the home side is overvalued here as well on Sunday, and I expect some regression here finally as well from Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA so far this season for LA, but I expect his sparkling numbers to take a hit today. At the very least, I expect Erick Fedde to match Sandoval inning for inning. Fedde is 2-2 with 22 K's and 10 walks over 25 frames of work. He's also 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his career against the Junior Circuit. This one will be decided late or in extra innings, the play is the visitors on the runline!

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10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Seattle won't be lacking for motivation here after losing 9 of its last 10. That includes both games to open this series. First they lost 4-3, then 8-7 last night. The M's allowed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and scored just 1 themselves to lose by 1 run again. While I do think an outright is possible here, I'm going to lay what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in our back pocket. The Rays come in on the other end of the spectrum, primed for a letdown after 5 straight wins. Drew Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA for the Rays, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA for the Mariners. These starters are essentially a "wash" in my eyes. In what should be another competitive affair, let's look for the desperate Mariners to find a way to deliver on the runline option tonight!

AAA Sports

10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra innings, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Giants hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with Julio Urias, who is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA. The Giants won 10 of 19 games in the season series last year and 6 of 10 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers ended San Fran's season in a 5-game NL Division series, so it's payback time tonight. I like Rodon to, at the very least, match Urias inning for inning. Because of that, the play here today is the Giants on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* A'S RUNLINE (GOM)

Tampa Bay lost 2 of 3 to the Twins over the weekend and it's now scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 games. Oakland fans can empathize, as the A's are looking to rebound from 3 straight losses to the Guardians. They've now lost 6 of their last 8. Oakland took 3 of 4 from Tampa from April 11-14 and I expect the home side to find a way to deliver in the opener here as well. Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He's off the best start of his career, going 6 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a win over the Mariners. Regression is now imminent after that gem in my opinion. The A's see Daulton Jefferies, who is 1-3 with 3.26 ERA, toe the slab. He gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Giants on Tuesday. I look for him to settle down here at home, where he posted a 2.90 ERA last year. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra's let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Oakland on the runline!

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10* CUBS RUNLINE (BEST OF BEST)

Chicago comes in desperate for a win, as it's dropped 8 of its last 10. That includes both games to open up this series, falling 11-1 and 9-1. I'm expecting a much better effort here from the Cubs on Sunday. Milwaukee enters complacent after 5 straight wins. Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA for the Brewers. Regression is imminent in my estimation though. Marcus Stroman is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA so far for Chicago. I say that Stroman settles down here and gets back on track with his best effort of the season. Brewers' star Christian Yellich said it best himself after yesterday's win: "The thing about baseball is you have to keep grinding, keep putting in the work and keep trying to get better." Expect that logic to pay dividends for the visiting side today though. That said, let's grab the Cubs on the runline option!

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8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

Toronto took the first game by a score of 2-1. I had the Astros on the runline in that one. Houston then responded with an 11-7 victory yesterday. I think the Astros are the sharp wager again here, but once again I'll recommend to play on the runline option. Houston goes with Framber Valdez, who is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA. Guasman faced the Astros once last year and allowed 3 earned runs and 6 hits with 2 walks over 4 1/3's frames of work and in 4 career outings against them he's just 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Valdez is just 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in 2 career starts against Toronto. These pitchers are a "wash." Look for Houston's strong bullpen and hitting line-up to put it in another position to win this game outright; that said, the official play is to grab the Astros on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Chicago looks to bounce back after yesterday's humbling 11-1 defeat. Note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge an 8 runs or greater road loss against an opponent though. Milwaukee on the other hand is interestingly just 2-6 in its last 8 after a 10 runs or greater victory in its last outing. Chicago sends lefty Justin Steele to the hill, and he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA. Lauer though is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 career outings against the Cubs, which includes 3 starts. I like the hungrier visiting side here, but for this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Chicagao on the runline!

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9* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

Bryce Elder is 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Braves. He'll have hundreds of friends and family members in the stands today watching the Texas native. Dane Dunning is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers and he'll look to play spoiler on the rookie. Elder had a decent debut, but in 2 starts since he's struggled big time, not getting past the 5th inning, walking 11 and striking out 7 over a cominbed 9 innings of work. Dunning makes his 5th start of the year and he's held his opposition to 3 or fewer runs in each of those outings. Look for Dunning to go deeper than his counterpart and for the Rangers to make this one exciting; grab Texas on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

Houston's offense got back on track in a big way in yesterday's 11-7 victory. I think it can keep the foot on the gas here. But for this reasonable mid-sized price, I think we're getting unreal value on the visitors on the runline option. Luis Garcia is 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA with 14 K's over 12 innings for Houston. Garcia coughted up 5 runs off 5 hits with 6 K's over 6 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. He's 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 career outings vs. Toronto though. The home side counters with the erratic Jose Berrios, who is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA this season, but who is a sub-par 3-3 with a 5.46 ERA in six career starts vs. Houston. I think an outright victory is possible, but in the end let's take on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I think that Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Madison Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA for Arizona, while Adam Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Cards. Arizona sneaks in under the radar here after winning 3 of its last 5. Bumgarner gave up just 1 run over 5 innings in his last outing. In his last start Wainwright was shelled for 4 runs off 8 hits over 5 innings. Recent form is a factor that's being overlooked here and we're going to take advantage. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Arizona on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* MARLINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

In a game that I believe will be decided late, or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Mariners hand the ball to Matt Brash, who is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA. He's a rookie with 3 career appearances and who has yet to pitch past the 5th inning. The home side counters with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA. He's never faced Seattle. I like Hernandez here though, who has a 6.05 ERA on the road, but a 3.60 ERA at home. The Marlins are riding a 5 game win streak, while the M's have lost 2 in a row. Great value here getting the extra run-and-a-half; the play is Miami on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (BOB)

Chicago has lost 7 in a row. I say that streak ends in emphatic fashion this evening. Here's the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as KC has lost 4 in a row. The Royals just got swept by the Mariners over the weekend. They hand the ball to Daniel Lynch, and he's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over 2 starts. He went a disastrous 1-2 with a 16.20 ERA over three appearances vs. the White Sox last year. The bullpen has a collective 4.11 ERA and they average just 3.1 RPG. The White Sox have been swept by the Twins and Guardians. I like Dallas Keuchel here though at home in this important game. He's 1-1 with 15.00 ERA so far this year (gave up 8 runs in his last start.) I think the veteran settles down here though. Chicago is also 4-0 in its last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Look for the White Sox to not only win this game, but to do so big a significant margin; the play is Chicago on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Dodgers have won 3 of their last 4. The Diamondbacks have lost 2 of their last 3 games. Arizona has yet to win a series yet this year, so they'll be hoping to catch the Dodgers a bit complacent here in the opener. And with Merrill Kelly on the hill for them tonight, I say that the D-Backs have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. The Dodgers are doing great. Their stats confirm that they're among the best in almost every facet, but betting on baseball is not only about betting on strong or weak stats, it's about picking and choosing great "spots" and "situations." This is a great spot bet on the runline for a number of reasons. I think LA is primed for letdown, while clearly Arizona is desperate to get a win streak going. These pitehrs are evenly matched too. I think Kelly can match Walker Buehler inning for inning. Buehler is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA. He gave up 3 runs and 8 hits over 5 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Braves in his last outing. Kelly is 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA for Arizona, who has given up just 1 run over 3 starts spanning 15 1/3's innings of work. I think this is a great spot and situation overall to pull the trigger on the hungry D-Back on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* BREWERS RUNLINE (RED DRAGON)

Ultimately, I think we're getting great value with the Brewers on the runline option here. This is a very reasonable mid-sized price to have to lay to have an extra 1.5 runs in your back pocket. Milwaukee hands the ball to Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA, while the home side sees Aaron Nola toe the slab. If this was four years go, Nola would be a -250 favorite. Now he enters with a 1-2. 5.52 ERA record. Milwaukee has won five of six, including yesterday's contest 5-3 and while an outright victory obviously isn't out of the realm of possibility today either, the play is Milwaukee on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (BOB)

I think Syndergaard is overvalued here. LA is 8-5, while Baltimore is 4-9, but I believe these starting pithers are more evenly matched than what this huge line is suggesting. Spencer Watkins is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Orioles, while Noah Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA for the Angels. Yes, the Orioles have struggled to plate runs this season, but off yesterday's 5-3 victory, I say the visiting side builds momentum off that performance. Let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pockets; the play is Baltimore on the runline!

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10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER.

AAA Sports

8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Orioles are hungry to snap a 2-game slide. Baltimore has played better in "day" games this year, going 2-3 with wins over the Yanks and Brewers. They're just 1-5 in night contests. The A's are 3-3 in day games. The A's hand the ball to Daulton Jeffries, who is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA, while the Orioles counter with Jordan Lyles, who is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA. Lyles is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 3 road starts vs. Oakland and I think he can easily match Jeffries inning for inning today. And in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued underdog. In this case though, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Baltimore on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* BRAVES RUNLINE (8*)

I think the defending champs are well worth the price of admission to grab the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. They've lost 2 straight, so they'll be eager to reverse their fortunes here in Chavez Ravine. Max Fried is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA for Atlanta, while Walker Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Let's not read too much into either pitchers early numbers. All stats, both good and bad, have to be taken with a small grain of salt over the first month. I say Fried settles down here. The Dodgers have won 6 straight, but I think they'll have their hands full today with this determined home side; the play is ATL on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* CUBS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

The Rays just dropped 2 of 3 games at the White Sox, and I think they'll have their hands full here today at the Cubs. Previous to that the Rays lost 3 of 4 to Oakland, getting outscored 31-16 in the process. Further regression here on the road as a favorite is imminent in my opinion. Shane McClanahan is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA for the Rays after allowing 3 runs over 4 innings in a loss to Oakland. Kyle Hendricks is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA for the Cubs. This is his 3rd start. He gave up 6 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Pirates last time out. I say that there's major room for improvement obviously from the Cubs' ace, and there's no better opponent to get back on track than against these struggling Rays. While I feel the outright is a possibility, in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cubs on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

I had a play on the Orioles on the runline yesterday, but did not need the extra 1.5 runs, as Baltimore ended up winning 2-1 in the bottom of the 10th inning. I expect another tight game here today as well, one that will once again be decided late or even in extra frames, so because of that, I'm once again back in the saddle and going to recommend a wager on the home side on the runline option again. Jameson Taillon and Tyler Wells are essentially a "wash" as far as the starting pitching is concerned in my opinion. Note though that the Twins are a near-perfect 6-1 in their last 7 off an extra-innings victory in which they held their opponent to 1 or less runs in. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the Orioles on the runline!

AAA Sports

9* TWINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Twins managed an 8-4 win here yesterday and I think they can keep the good times rolling on Saturday afternoon. Keep your eyes on Luis Arraez for Minnesota, as he is hitting .350 for the Twins over his first 20 at-bats. Sonny Gray gets the nod for the Twins and he'll be looking to get out to a good start for his new team. Last year he was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA. He made 1 start alrady and gave up 2 runs over 5 innings. The Red Sox have given up 15 runs over their last 2 games. Tanner Houck gave up 3 runs over 3 innings in his debut for the Red Sox this year, so the advantage on the mound today definitely lies with the visiting side in my opinion. Yes, the outright is possible, but let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Minnesota on the runline!

AAA Sports

9* RAYS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

Tampa went just 1-2 at home against Oakland, including falling 6-3 yesterday, but I say it'll give the White Sox everything they can handle this evening! Chicago went 2-1 against the Mariners, but it enters off a 5-1 loss yesterday. That snapped a 4-game win skein and I believe further regression is in order here. Tampa hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA, while Chicago counters with Dylan Cease, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Rasmussen allowed two runs over four innings in what turned out to be a win for Tampa over Baltimore in his debut, while Cease gave up 1 run over 5 innings against Detroit. Cease is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one career outing vs. the Rays. Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 career starts. While I do think the outright is possible, the official is grab the Rays on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* ATHELTICS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I had a play on the A's on the runline in their outright win at Tampa and I believe they have a legitimate shot at pulling off another big upset on the road today. The Jays are off a 3-0 loss at New York. Toronto went just 1-2 in the Big Apple, while Oakland went 2-1 in Tampa. Daulton Jeffries is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the A's. He's making his 2nd start of the season and 3rd of his career. He's off a 4-1 win over the Phillies, giving up two hits over 5 scoreless. I think he can easily match Jays' starter Ross Stripling, who enters 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA. He's given up 2 runs over 2 innings of relief and he went a sub-par 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA over 19 starts last season. Great price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Yankees are coming off a 3-0 win over the Jays at home yesterday, winning that series 2-1. I say a small letdown is now in order here against the lowly Orioles. Jordan Montgomery is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA for the Yanks after allowing 3 earned runs off four hits over 3 1/3's innings of work. The Orioles go with Jordan Lyles, who is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA after allowing 5 runs over 5 innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa on Saturday. Lyles signed a 1-year contract worth 7 million, and I say he bounces back at home. In a contest that I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, let's grab the home side on the runline option; the play is Baltimore on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* CUBS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

I think the Cubbies can keep this one close. The Rockies swept the Rangers in two games in Texas and then had a day off. They send Kyle Freeland to the hill and he's 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA. The Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Freeland struggled in his first start, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 3 innings in a loss to the Dodgers. Steele makes his second start of the season. Last year as a rookie he went 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA over 20 games (9 starts.) He blanked the hard-hitting Brewers over 5 innings and I say he carries that momentum over here. The outright is possible, but let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The play is the CUBS on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* RANGERS RUNLINE (AL RL BOB)

Dane Dunning gets the call for the Rangers here. He's 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA, giving up five hits and three runs over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Jays on the road in his opener. I think he'll bounce-back in friendly confines though. Look for a new pitch from Dunning today: "The slider that I normally throw is a bit more vertical," he said. "This new slider I throw is probably more like a sideways curveball. ...The numbers are actually really good on it, so it's something I wanted to incorporate into my repertoire. It's something different that hitters haven't seen." He'll go up against Shohei Ohtani, who is 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He looked decent as well in his first start, allowing one run off four hits over 4 innings in a loss to Houston. This one is going to come down to the latter frames, and because of that, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option today!

AAA Sports

9* A'S RUNLINE (DESTROYER)

The A's won 4-2 last night and I expect another competitive effort from the visiting side today as well. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena went a combined 0 for 9 yesterday for the Rays and I think they'll struggle again here against Cole Irvin, who enters hungry after starting 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He gave up 4 runs off 7 hits over 5 1/3's frames in a loss to the Phillies. Irvin has a big opportunity bounce back here throwing opposite Josh Flemming, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief against Baltimore on Saturday. Let's not read too much into either pitchers first start. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Tampa managed the 9-8 win yesterday, but I think that the A's bounce back here. Yes, I do think that the outright win is possible, but in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Frankie Montas got rocked in his debut for Oakland, allowing five runs off six hits over five innings. Last year he was 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road. I say he definitely bounces back today. The Rays go with Shane McClanahan, who gave up no runs over 4 innings in a 2-1 win over Baltimore in his opener. The A's have smashed lefties this year early, averaging .346 collectively thus far. Look for that trend to continue here; the play is Oakland on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (BOB)

The Astros go with right-hander Luis Garcia, who finished 11-8 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He was the runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks go with Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after throwing 3 innings on Opening Night. The Astros come to town after going 3-1 at the Angels. It was the opposite for Arizona though, which dropped 3 of 4 games at home against the Padres. That included a 10-5 loss here Sunday in which the team made 3 unearned errors: "Three unearned runs to me is unacceptable," Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said afterward. "That game should have been a lot closer than it was. We've got to get better. We've got a day off (Monday). We can turn the page. That's all we can do. We can learn from it, move on, keep pressing and teaching. Do what we can to make something good happen on Tuesday." I like the veteran a home here and I believe the hungrier home side will, at the very least, keep this one competitive late; grab the 1.5 runs with the Diamondbacks on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

I don't only like the Angels to win this game, I like them to win by a significant margin. Because of that, let's lay the 1.5 runs for the decent "plus money return." Michael Lorenzen will make his debut for his new team tonight: "I'm meant to be here," Lorenzen said. "This is my home. And when you're gone for seven years, you really realize 'I miss my home.' You go a little extreme and I guess I've gone a little extreme, but I love being here." He's 6-10 with a 4.95 ERA overall in 26 career starts, but a much sharper 1-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 14 career games (three starts) vs. the Fish. The visitors counter with Eliser Hernandez, who was 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA over 11 starts last season. It's already been noted that Hernandez will be held to just 75 pitches or 5 innings tonight as well. Look for the Angels to take advantage! The play is LA on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (GOW)

Tampa swept Baltimore, but I think it'll have its hands full today against the Atheltics, who avoided a three-game sweep at Philadelphia with a 4-1 victory yesterday afternoon. Paul Blackburn will take the mound to start for the visitors. He owns a pedestrian 5.74 lifetime ERA. Tampa counters with Luis Patino, who owns a slightly better 4.47 lifetime ERA. Oakland proved yesterday that it still has talent in its lineup, and I say the A's hang around late and make this one interesting. While I do believe the outright victory is a possibility, let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline!

AAA Sports

9* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

After starting 0-3, the Orioles are desperate to break into the win column. Here's a great opponent to possibly do that against, as the Brewers struggled in their opening series loss to the Cubs. Adrian Houser gets the call for the Brewers, and he was 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last year, while the hungry Orioles turn to Bruce Zimmerman, who was 4-5 with a 5.04 ERA. Milwaukee though is a putrid 1-11 in its last 12 on the road. The Brewers bullpen has to be called into question as well, as Milwaukee's team ERA is 7.88, while Baltimore's is 3.94. This one will be tight, so I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline!

AAA Sports

8* A'S RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

In what I believe will be a very competitive contest, I'm going to lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. The A's always seem to start slow and then find ways to win, and that could be the case again this season after 2 straight losses to open the season in Philly. The Phillies go with Zach Eflin, who was nothing special last year, finishing 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors go with Daulton Jeffries, who makes his third major league start here. He's 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA so far. I say these starters are equal. I also say the A's get out to an early start here as well finally. The outright is possible, but the official call is to play the A's on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOM)

The Blue Jays have made a lot of moves in the offseason which have many believe that they're now the team to beat in the American League. That may turn out to be the case, but on Opening Day, almost anythign can happen (just ask the Braves!) I see this one being decided late or even in extra innings, so I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Sonny Gray was 8-12 with a 4.59 ERA in 29 starts for the Rockies last year and in 2 career outings vs. the Jays he's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA. Jose Berriors was 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts betwen Toronto and Minnesota last year. He's 2-1 with a pedestrian 5.47 ERA in 5 career starts vs. the Jays; the play is Texas on the runline!

AAA Sports

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 (money line)

They won 106 regular season games with a near $300 million payroll. But the Dodgers have to win a one-game playoff to move on. They finished one game back of the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco had the best record in the majors. If LA wins Wednesday, then they will move on to face those Giants in the NLDS. But first they must concern themselves with a St. Louis team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games. It was an incredible run for St. Louis to get here but they are pretty clearly outclassed in this matchup. The Dodgers are 18-3 in their last 21 games and have won the last seven. So they are every bit as hot as St. Louis is, if not hotter. They’ve also been much better over the full regular season. Max Scherzer was an unbelievable midseason acquisition for LA as they’ve won all 11 of his starts since he came over, even the last two when he didn’t pitch all that well. Scherzer has a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the full year. We understand that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals has an 8-0 team start record his previous eight trips to the hill. But he did allow four runs the one time he faced the Dodgers. The last time Scherzer faced St. Louis, not only was it only an unearned run allowed in eight innings but he also had 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers have outscored teams by 1.8 runs/game at home, so we will gladly play the run line. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 (RUN LINE)

At the most critical point of the season, Boston is not playing like a team that wants to be a part of the postseason. They just lost two of three to a Baltimore team that has the worst record in the American League. That leaves them tied for the second Wild Card (with Seattle) and a game in front of Toronto. The Red Sox also got swept by the Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park. The final series of the regular season will be in an unfamiliar place, the Nation’s capital, as they take on the Nationals. Given Boston’s sudden inability to score runs, we will take the home team +1.5 on the run line. As far as the schedule is concerned, Washington has a slight edge heading into tonight’s opener as they were off on Thursday. They’re also going to have Jesse Rogers on the hill and he has given up no more than three runs in any of his five starts. He has a 0.84 WHIP at home. Boston goes with Eduardo Rodriguez. They’ve lost three of his last four starts and truthfully he’s not pitched as well as his 18-12 TSR for the year might indicate. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven series openers while the Nationals are 9-0 in their L9 interleague home games. Play WASHINGTON +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on LA -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Dodgers have had no problems beating up on the Padres lately. They’ve taken the past eight head to head encounters, including an 11-9 thriller last night. It should be no trouble at all winning this game by two or more runs. Six of those previous eight wins against San Diego have been by that margin or greater. Wednesday’s win kept the Dodgers two games back of the Giants in the NL West and still alive in the race for homefield advantage. So they’ve got something to play for. San Diego does not as a terrible second half has left them below .500 for the season, something no one would have imagined at the start of 2021. Injuries to the starting rotation got so bad that the team was forced to go out and sign Vince Velasquez to a minor league deal two weeks ago after he was released by Philadelphia. His three starts for San Diego have all been losses and his ERA is 9.00. It is scary to think what might happen to him here as he faces the highest scoring offense in the majors. The Padres won’t get the chances they did last night. The Dodgers blew a 5-1 lead by committing a couple errors. Tony Gonsolin has only allowed one run in three career starts vs. the Padres and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this year. Play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on TOR -1.5

It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st.  The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on TB -1.5

Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY

This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5

Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on MIL +1.5

The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5

Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on HOU -1.5

The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5

Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on PHILLIES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series with the Diamondbacks. That’s quite embarrassing considering the Diamondbacks have the National League’s worst record. Now that record has gotten somewhat better of late as they’ve won five of their last six games. But you’re still looking at a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies were the hottest team in baseball. They won eight in a row to open August and were in first place in the NL East. But since then they’ve lost six of eight games and now face a 3.5 game deficit in the division as it is the Braves that are surging. The key to today’s selection is that Zack Wheeler is going to be starting for Philadelphia. Wheeler leads all starters with 187 strikeouts and 162 innings pitched. With Jacob deGrom injured, Wheeler could be in line for the Cy Young. An Arizona team that is only 11-28 in day games should be no match for the right-hander, whose WHIP is sub-1.00 for the year. Even though he’s done well since returning from the injured list, Madison Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago for the Giants. He gave up a season-high nine hits in his last start. The Phillies will win here by at least two runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on CWS -1.5 (RL)

After winning “The Field of Dreams” game in thrilling fashion, the White Sox promptly dropped two actual home games to the Yankees. But they’ve quickly gotten back on track by beating Oakland each of the last two days. We had them Monday and that was a 5-2 victory. It was way easier yesterday as they took the game 9-0. With Lance Lynn set to go tonight, the AL Central leaders should move one step closer to a sweep (this is a four-game series) and we think they win this one by at least two runs. Lynn will handle the A’s lineup. He has a 6-2 record at home, a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has a 6-1 TSR over his last seven starts, having permitted just one run in five of them. Oakland has dropped three straight. Don’t think Cole Irvin will be able to handle a White Sox lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs in games where they oppose a lefty starter. The White Sox are 41-22 at home this year. When they are -125 to -175 on the money, they are 21-7 in home games. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TB -1.5

Tampa Bay won big last night, 9-2, and is very likely to do so again tonight. After dropping two of three to the Twins this past weekend, this series offers a shot at redemption. The Rays have been beating up on the Orioles all year, as you’d expect them to, winning 12 of the 13 season meetings. At this price, we’ve made the decision to lay the -1.5 on the run line. No fear here. Six of the Rays’ previous seven wins over the Orioles have been by more than one run. At the present time, Baltimore is playing as poorly as they have all year, which is really saying something. They are 0-12 their last 12 games and have been outscored 113-36. This isn’t even their longest losing streak this year! They are ill-equipped to handle the Rays lineup, allowing nine or more runs eight of the 13 times they faced them. Tampa has outscored them 103-51 on the year. Not even John Means, Baltimore’s best pitcher, is enough to stem the tide here. Means already lost to the Rays earlier in the month in what turned out to be a 10-6 game. He followed that by serving up three home runs to Detroit. Tampa Bay homered five times yesterday and has scored at least eight runs in 8 of the last 10 games. Should be an easy night for Rasmussen, no matter how long he’s asked to go. Play on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on OAK -1.5

Texas did beat Oakland last night, 8-6, but the Rangers are obviously a team that doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot of winning. Their 75 losses are the third most of any team. They’d lost the previous five games with the A’s before winning Friday. So calling for the A’s to bounce back Saturday doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5 as this should be a blowout. Texas is 15-25 off a win this year. Oakland is 8-2 in August, a month that has been kind to them in years’ past as well. The last three Augusts have seen the A’s put together a 44-19 record. They’d just won 17-0 in Cleveland on Thursday. There was some rare sloppy play in the field yesterday as the A’s committed three errors. Going into that game, they’d committed the fewest errors in the majors. Errors were what helped Texas score three times in the top of the first. That was more runs than the Rangers had scored in the previous two games combined. They rank last in the American League in runs scored. Jordan Lyles has won just 5 of his 22 starts for Texas this year. The last five have all been losses for the team and in three of the five games, Lyles has allowed six runs. One of those three was against the A’s. Contrast that to James Kaprielian. When the Oakland righty went against Lyles on 8/8, he gave up only two runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on HOU -1.5

The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on NYY -1.5

There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5

Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on NY -1.5

Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

It will be interesting to see how Cleveland approaches the second half. Eight games back of the White Sox, they are not likely to win the AL Central. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Injuries have taken their toll on the Indians, particularly their starting rotation. They are not a team looking to spend money, so we’d be shocked if they were “buyers” before the trade deadline. It might behoove them to be sellers and build for the future. The Indians are big underdogs Friday in Oakland as they face Chris Bassitt, who is 10-2 in his 19 starts (14-5 TSR). The A’s are also a second place team, but in a better position than Cleveland. They have seven more wins and a much better run differential as well. We expect the home team to win tonight by two runs or more. Eli Morgan has made just five starts for Cleveland. The last one came on July 3rd. He has an 8.43 ERA this year. Bassitt has allowed no more than two runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. The Indians have lost eight straight games to teams with winning records. They are 1-7 their last eight games here in Oakland. The A’s are an amazing 49-13 their last 62 games vs. the AL Central. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on SF -1.5

Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

This is an 8* on PIT +1.5

Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5

AAA

This is a 9* on TOR -1.5

These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on LAA -1.5

With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Nationals captured last night’s series opener 2-1. Because of that, we like them +1.5 (run line) on Saturday. The Phillies’ 17-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday is looking like a total outlier as the club has scored no more than three runs in any other of its last eight games. Washington has won three of its last four ball games, all of them coming on the division road. Joe Ross starts on Saturday. He gave up only three hits in his last start and while it ended up being a losing effort, it was the sixth time in seven starts where Ross allowed five hits or less. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA all-time vs. the Phillies, who had just six hits in last night’s game. With the exception of yesterday, all the recent putrid offensive efforts by Philadelphia had been on the road. But they only average 4.2 runs/game at home. Spencer Howard is starting for them today and has had issues with a drop in velocity through the first three outings of 2021. Howard hasn’t gone more than four innings yet and the Phillies bullpen has been poor. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

St. Louis pulled off an upset, winning 3-2 last night here at Dodgers Stadium. But the idea of them winning two in a row seems remote. The Dodgers, paced by an offense that scores 5.2 runs/game and a pitching staff that allows only 3.9, should still be considered the best team in baseball. They have scored 72 more runs than they have allowed through 55 games. The only two teams with better run differentials this year are the Padres and White Sox. The Cardinals are seven games over .500 and chasing the Cubs in the Central. But they have scored exactly one more run than they’ve allowed. The gap in the two teams’ run differentials is significant to us in handicapping this matchup. So is the fact that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is 3-0 in his 10 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He probably deserves better than a 6-4 team start record. His ERA is 0.90 his last three starts as he’s allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 20 innings. There have been only two starts this year where Buehler gave up more than two runs and every start has gone at least six innings. Carlos Martinez did carry a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his last start. But he was facing Arizona. Dodgers are 53-24 L77 if they scored two or less runs in the last game. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY

This is a 10* on LA ANGELS -1.5

The Angels were upset yesterday by the Rangers, losing 6-4 in a game where they were big favorites. They actually had more hits than Texas, but sloppy defense (three errors) contributed to them falling into a 6-0 hole. Five of those six runs for the Rangers came in one inning (the sixth) and that equaled their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings combined. So we’re not sold on them being able to duplicate last night’s result. In fact, we think this should be such an easy win for the home team that you should lay the -1.5 on the run line. Ohtani is starting tonight for the Angels. The first start of the year for the two-way player did bring about control issues (five walks) but he only allowed two hits and the Angels won 7-4. The Angels also average 5.9 runs/game at home. Jordan Lyles, who won just one game for Texas last year, has already matched that win total in 2021 as he won his first start. But the last two have seen him give up three home runs and six runs total. He now has a 4.70 ERA. He has a 5.40 ERA in six career starts vs. LA. Play on LA ANGELS (-1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* on MIAMI +1.5

This is a tough spot for Atlanta as they are off a controversial 7-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. A play at the plate (bad call) determined the outcome of the game and the Braves were rightly hot that things went against them. Now they have to turn around and host a Miami team that’s off a 3-0 win over the Mets on Sunday and looking for revenge. The revenge stems from the end of last year when the Braves swept the Marlins out of the playoffs. We’ll grab the +1.5 with Miami here as Sandy Alcantara has pitched very well in his two starts despite having an 0-2 TSR. He had 10 strikeouts in his last start and has allowed only three runs and six hits so far. There hasn’t been much run support, but that will come. Atlanta goes with Huascar Ynoa, who has only two starts of longer than three innings in his career. One was Wednesday when he shut Washington out for five innings. But we don’t think he’s better than Alcantara. This should be a low-scoring game where 1.5 runs in our back pocket will come in handy. Play on MIAMI +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON +1.5

It’s rare you get Max Scherzer +1.5 runs, let alone with this kind of minimal price tag attached. So you’ve got to figure that the opponent can only be one team and if you guessed “the Dodgers,” then go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Los Angeles is going for the sweep Sunday afternoon as they’ve beaten Washington 1-0 and 9-5 the last two days. But we give the Nats a shot at winning today and don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss. Scherzer allowed four solo home runs in his first start. But other than those, he gave up just one other hit. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks and the Nationals wound up beating the Braves 6-5. Kershaw was similarly impressive in his last outing, but not so much in the first (allowed six runs), which could be chalked up to being in Colorado. We realize that LA has lost just one time since Opening Day and Washington is on a four-game losing streak. But two of those four losses were by one run. Even in yesterday’s loss, the Nationals had 15 hits to the Dodgers’ nine. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

Like everyone else, we favor the Dodgers to repeat as World Series Champions. When you factor in their postseason, they outscored their opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game last season. Only three Yankees teams from the 20’s and 30’s ever produced a better per game run differential over the course of a season. Now that was only 78 games for the Dodgers last year, but they look even stronger this year and could set the National League record for single season wins. Their season win total of 104.5 is tied with the ‘99 Yankees for the highest of the past 30 years. Colorado is not going to challenge the Dodgers. Not today. Not this season. They could finish some 40 games back when the regular season is over. This is a total mismatch as Clayton Kershaw makes his 11th consecutive Opening Day start. Disregard Kershaw’s poor Spring Training; that’s happened before and it didn’t carry over to the regular season. His 24 wins against the Rockies are his most vs. any team and he’s 11-5 all-time at Coors Field. The Rockies traded away Nolen Arenado and Brendan Rodgers is out with a hamstring injury. German Marquez can not possibly carry his team to victory here and the home team will lose by at least two runs. Play on LA DODGERS (-1.5)

AAA

This is an 10* on TAMPA BAY +1.5

The Dodgers treated us nicely in Game 5, winning 4-2 as our *10* Game of the Year. But with the Rays now facing a must-win situation, we’re now going to throw our support behind them in Game 6. The main reason being not that they are facing elimination, but rather it’s the same starting pitching matchup that treated them so well in Game 2. It was a 1st inning Brandon Lowe HR off Tony Gonsolin that set the tone in Game 2. The Rays went on to win 6-4. Gonsolin hasn’t been good in the playoffs, posting a 9.39 ERA in just 7 ⅔ innings. He lasted for just four outs in Game 2. Blake Snell has never gone a full six innings for the Rays this season, but he doesn’t have to with the bullpen being as good as it is. Snell no-hit the Dodgers for the first four innings (not an easy feat) of Game 2. Tampa Bay is 20-8 off a loss this season and 11-2 when playing with a day off. We believe they will do no worse than a 1-run loss here. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON +1.5

Going into Game 4 of the ALCS, Tampa Bay was up 3-0 in the series and owned a MLB-best 16-5 record in one-run games this season. That was the best win percentage in one-run games for any single season in the history of baseball. Well, as you know, the ALCS is still going on. The Rays are now just 16-7 in one-run games having lost Games 4 and 5 by identical 4-3 scores. Last night it was a Carlos Correa walk-off that proved to be the difference for the Astros. Houston has outhit Tampa Bay in this series, even when they were losing, so we’re not surprised that they’ve climbed back into the series. With the series being so low-scoring thus far (every game has stayed Under), taking Houston +1.5 in a must-win spot seems ideal. On the mound, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1 starters tonight. Framber Valdez allowed just two runs on four hits for the Astros in Game 1. He’s gone at least six innings in all but two of his 12 starts in 2020. Blake Snell hasn’t gone a full six (innings) one time this season. He did give up just the one run in Game 1, but Astros’ hitters were making good contact with him and had six hits. Snell also had only two strikeouts, compared to eight by Valdez.  Play on HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on HOU +1.5

There are no off days in the LCS, so these teams could be playing as many as seven games in seven days. We think there’s going to be a real premium on starting pitchers going deep into games. Granted, Tampa Bay is never afraid to have a “quick hook” and turn to its bullpen, which has been successful for them all year. But with just one day off between series and Game 1 starter Blake Snell having yet to pitch a full six innings even one time in 2020, the Rays seem to be at a bit of a disadvantage here. Astros Game 1 starter Framber Valdez has gone a full seven innings in 7 of his 13 outings this season. The team that homers more has gone 22-1 this postseason. Houston homered 12 times in 4 games vs. Oakland, Tampa Bay homered 11 times in 5 games vs. the Yankees. This pretty clearly isn’t the same Houston team we saw struggle in the regular season. They are healthier now and motivated by the cheating scandal. Last year, they ousted TB in 5 games in the LDS. They took the first two games of that series. Taking the ‘Stros on the run line here is a tremendous value as we just can’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. Play HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY (RUN LINE)

It’s come down to one game for the Yankees and the Rays as Game 5 is Friday night with the winner moving on (to face the Astros) in the ALCS and the loser going home. After staying alive with a 5-1 win in Game 4 last night, the Yankees are favored here as they’ve got Gerrit Cole on the mound. As great as he’s been over the last month, a lot of his success has to do with run support and we don’t think Cole can necessarily count on that tonight. Tampa Bay is taking a different approach as Tyler Glasnow, who started the Game 2 win, will open. From there, we’re likely to see Blake Snell and others. With Glasnow, not only did he strike out 10 Yankees in just five innings back in Game 2, he also has a 10-0 team start record in his L10 starts! Over the L7 starts, Glasnow has a sub 1.00 WHIP. So we've got full confidence in him for however long he’s in there tonight. The Rays pitching depth is such that there will be no drop off when they do decide to make the change. (Snell is a former Cy Young winner!) There has yet to be a one-run game in this series, but remember that Game 1 was 4-3 heading into the ninth inning. We say that Tampa Bay does no worse than a one-run loss in Game 5 and we obviously give them a great shot at winning “outright!” Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Yankees and Rays meet in the LDS. Though Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League, they are the underdogs in Game 1. We see some real value on the Rays in this situation, especially when it comes to the run line where we can get an additional 1.5 runs at a fairly reasonable price. The Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees in the regular season, beating Game 1 starter Gerritt Cole twice. While Cole has been excellent over the last month, he’s been getting a ton of run support and that doesn’t figure to be the case here as Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who has been every bit as good as Cole recently and over the course of the whole season for that matter. Snell allowed just one hit to Toronto in the last series and it was the third time in the past four starts he gave up one run or less. One of the Yankees two wins in Cleveland was by one run as they had to rally back from a 4-run deficit. The Rays are 32-12 vs. righties this season, the Yankees are just 7-8 vs. lefties. While this series is being contested in San Diego, not Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, it still matters that the Yankees weren’t a great road team in the regular season. Five of the 14 homers that Cole has allowed this year came by the Rays. Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH +1.5

Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5.

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH -1.5

Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on LA -1.5

Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5

Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5

Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA