|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-19-22||Saints v. Packers -3||10-20||Win||100||63 h 56 m||Show|
HC Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff looked more concerned with just getting the gears started on the Packers proverbial football machine than finding a way to win last time out.(SF 28- GB 21) But this week Im betting the old ball coach looks at putting his team in a winning frame of mind as we head into week 2 of preseason NFL football. This is a rematch of a ugly 38-3 loss in the 2021 season opener at New Orleans. It was LaFleur‘s and also QB Aaron Rodgers’ most lopsided loss in their NFL careers. It must be noted that the Saints new head coach Dennis Allen is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS away in previous nfl preseason tilts. With that said Im betting on Green Bay to improve to 6-0 SUATS vs the Saints in nflx action.
Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover
|08-13-22||Dolphins -1 v. Bucs||26-24||Win||100||11 h 25 m||Show|
The Dolphins are starting a new era with first-year head coach Mike McDaniel and Im betting the new guy on the block will want to make a statement by winning right out of the gate here in preseason play. Giving his side a positive landmark moving forward could be key here. Dolphins players are still talking about their 45-17 beatdown at the hands of the Bucs in last seasons meeting, and sound pumped to have a much better showing even though this is just preseason play. In two head to head scrimmages with TB the Fins looked pretty good, and with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson splitting reps for Miami will be viable threats to move the ball and score some points vs a Bucs side that is exploring depth players and possible positions upgrades for their opening day roster. Im betting the more focused and motivated side gets is to the promise land tonight in Florida.
Note: The visitor 11-1 ATS in this series and Miami is 5-0 ATS vs NFC South.
The Bucs are 1-7 SU L/8 Game One preseason tilts.
Play on Miami to cover
|08-11-22||Giants -2.5 v. Patriots||23-21||Loss||-110||11 h 11 m||Show|
New Giants head coach Brian Daboll will want to make a statement right out of the gate with some aggressive offensive football so I expect QBs Taylor , Webb and even Jones should see some time right out of the gate in preseason ball. Daboll is well known for his advanced offensive systems , and should do enough damage here to get us to the promised land vs a New England side that is said to be having troubles with chemistry on offense so far in preseason scrimmages.
Gmen are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series dating back 23 seasons / visitor 9-2 SUATS.
Play on the NY Giants to cover
|08-14-21||Saints v. Ravens -2||14-17||Win||100||37 h 40 m||Show|
The Saints enter this preseason game going 2-10 ATS L12 vs NFC opposition Meanwhile, Baltimore is 5-0 ATS L5 in this series and overall under Harbaugh have been absolute beasts in NFLX play accumulating a 21-3 ATS run over the L/6 seasons. The Ravens are currently on a 17-game preseason winning streak. When considering the starting lineup options and backups I conclusively estimate the Raves win vs a Saints team going through some remolding by a FG or more.... giving us value on this number.
Play on Baltimore to cover
|08-14-21||Dolphins +3.5 v. Bears||13-20||Loss||-107||4 h 28 m||Show|
Its only preseason ball but the Bears are pretty banged up with a huge injury list on both sides of the ball. I know QB Justin /Fields will make his debut here today and there is alot of hype surrounding his appearance, but he cant win this game on his own, and his backup Andy Dalton despite of being experienced is far from being in his prime. Meanwhile, the Miami dolphins HC Flores looks like he takes preseason ball seriously having gone 3-0 so far with the Fins, and with the solid QB duo of Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett on the field the underdogs look like viable bets.
Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.Dolphins are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Play on the Dolphins to cover
|08-12-21||Steelers +1 v. Eagles||24-16||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
Pittsburgh has already played one tilt in the preseason (Hall ofFame Game), and they were dominant winning a 16-3 decision vs the Dallas Cowboys . Here today against the new look Eagles, who have a new coach ( Nick Sirianni) and a revamped offense behind Jalen Hurts the more prepared Steelers and their iron curtain D, look like solid preseason bets. I know its difficult to predict how much of both teams starters will play, but my depth charts give an edge to the Steelers backups. Look for the Eagles offense to experience growing pains and for the Steelers D to continue to show their toughness.
Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog.Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog.Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on natural surface.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Play on Pittsburgh to cover
|08-29-19||Ravens -6 v. Redskins||20-7||Win||100||50 h 33 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens go into Washington with momentum as they ride a 16-game winning streak in pre-season play and have won and covered each of their three exhibition tilts this season.Rookie QB Trace McSorley has looked tremendous and completed 19 of his 28 passing attempts for 203 yards, two touchdowns, last time out in a Ravens, win and should get more snaps tonight with Lamar Jackson not expected to play. Meanwhile, Washington despite of a preseason win last time out, is suffering through some scattered key injuries and will want to stay relatively healthy, going forward so Im betting they play alot of backups and sort out the bottom half of the depth chart . Looks very much like Baltimore makes it 17 straight here, and covers for the 11th time in 13 trips to the gridiron.
BALTIMORE is 10-1 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons.BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points .
Play on Baltimore to cover
|08-29-19||Vikings -3 v. Bills||23-27||Loss||-100||24 h 13 m||Show|
The Minnesota Vikings opened at 2.5 point dogs vs the Buffalo Bils, but that number was knocked down, and now the value despite of the divergence still lies with the Vikings of favorites of 3 points.
Zimmer is 12-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MINNESOTA. Zimmer is 9-2 ATS in road games as the coach of MINNESOTA.
NFLX teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - after a 2 game home stand against opponent after playing their last game on the road are 29-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.
NFLX Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off 2 consecutive home wins, undefeated in the preseason are 41-16 ATS L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover
|08-25-19||Steelers v. Titans -2.5||18-6||Loss||-102||11 h 28 m||Show|
Sunday night National Football League preseason action features the AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers doing battle with the AFC South Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee.
The Titans owned a top tier defense last year ranking 8th in total yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed( 18.9 ppg). This season and tonight Im betting the Titans D will continue to shine thanks to addition of some key draft acquisitions and depth. On offence with QB Mariotts expected to play at least half the game a Tennessee offence that has looked more fluid than usual thanks to a more balanced run and passing game and should continue to do good work vs a Pittsburgh D, that might not be as stable as many pundits believe. On the opposite end of the field, its looks like the Steelers Big ben will see limited time if plays today at all which gives me more credence in my backing of the Titans here at home this week. Note: PITTSBURGH is 1-11 ATS L/12 off a upset win as an underdog . Their 17-7 win vs KC last week qualifies here under a regression chart that I use to isolate let down spots.
Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on a natural surface.
Titans are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.
Play on the Tennessee Titans to win on the ML
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
|08-24-19||Seahawks -3 v. Chargers||23-15||Win||100||38 h 30 m||Show|
Veteran QB Philip Rivers will not play this week vs the Chargers and backing Seattle is a good investment option behind a above average group of backup QBs ie JT Barrett and especially Geno Smith with veteran QB Wilson probably playing the first quarter. Pete Carrol said all of starters will see some action on Saturday, but has not specified how much. The line from its opening has spun around in a big way , but there is still market value here on this line favoring the Seahawks. Advantage Seahawks.
SEATTLE is 31-12 ATS against AFC West division opponents since 1993.
SEATTLE is 33-18 ATS in road games since 1993.
NFLX team (SEATTLE) - after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 24-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
NFLX Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 11-31 L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover
|08-24-19||Saints -3 v. Jets||28-13||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
Jets running back Le’Veon Bell won’t see action until the regular season. With QB Saints Drew Brees likely to see his only action prior to Week 1 kickoff the Saints have an edge over his young counterpart Sam Darnold . Note: Brees has averaged 22 snaps in Week 3 of the previous two pre-seasons.
The Saints have covered 3 of their L/4 road games in the preseason and 6 of their L/8 preseason games overall and get the nod again.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-6 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest .
NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-11 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
NFLX teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - in non-conference games, off a double digit road win are 11-33 ATS L/10 seasons L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
NFLX Home teams (NY JETS) - after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 8-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.
NFLX Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game are 40-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the New Orleans Saints