Denver will be fresh as they come off a bye week, and cannot be conservative in their approach against a Chargers team that can be offensively explosive. The Broncos Im betting will push the action and San Diego will respond in kind and push back with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that eclipses this very beatable number. Note: NFL teams like Denver coming off their Bye Week have gone over in 10 of 12 qualifying games so far in the 2018 campaign  in Conference play.

Last time out Denver took part in a heart breaking 19-17 loss to the Texans a game where they missed two FGs, but in that game the Broncos threw  for 273 yards in the loss and are capable of moving the ball through the air which is important for us looking for an OVER ticket to cash.  The Broncos  have now gone OVER 7 straight times as a dog coming off a home game where they threw for at least 250 yards. Denver is 8-1 OVER  in road games vs .700  or better  opposition .

Play on the OVER 

The Falcons 4-5 on the season have the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL after getting mauled by the Steelers last week for 51 points. After that embarrassment I expect they will be ready to play some hard core physical defence this week vs the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, Dallas 4-5 a team that has has allowed 19 ppg overall on D, and has  averaged just 16.4 ppg on the road this season, will play a methodical game, which Im betting results in a score that stays on the low side of the Total. 

DALLAS in their L/6 versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.

DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

DALLAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season since 1992

Quinn is 9-1 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of ATLANTA.Garrett is 8-1 UNDER  in road games off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival as the coach of DALLAS.

Under is 8-0 in Cowboys last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games in Week 11.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 vs. NFC.Under is 20-6 in Cowboys last 26 road games.Under is 13-5 in Cowboys last 18 games overall.Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 22-9 in Falcons last 31 games in November.Under is 14-6 in Falcons last 20 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 13-6-1 in Falcons last 20 games in Week 11.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.) are 36-12 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and  take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season.  This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team  in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. 

Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights .

Philly is 0-3 UNDER  L/3 vs Dallas.

The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER  in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more  yards per return over the last 3 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits  entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined  19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6   on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. 

Im  betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. 

Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars are desperate for wins  and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots.  They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck  and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same.

The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts  have gone under 8 straight times  at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts  have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent.

NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75%  TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5  with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities  here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going  OVER the number.

Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points  and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and  9-1 OVER vs .666  or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts. 

Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less  and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and  4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina.

The Steelers  have gone OVER 14 straight times  as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game . 

NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect  that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their  defence to try to be competitive, but  they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections  points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board. 

Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40. 

Play on the OVER 

During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts  with  Totals line of 58 or more points  They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored .  None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both  the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin. 

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. 

Play OVER 

NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more  on the road,  the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times  dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns  are  0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and  Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER  for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total.

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

  Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road .  Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the  Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points  have gone under  18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. 

  Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall. 

NEW ENGLAND is 17-6  L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling  team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home  , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage  here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout. 

GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg. 

Green Bays last game resulted in a  high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the  Cheese machine is  12-0 OVER L/12  off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points  .

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing  the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack.  So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on  a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D,  is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total.  TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling  defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

Tampa Bays defence has been purged in back to back games, giving up a total of 80 points ,but the Browns are not the type of team that can take advantage of their wobbly defence. The Browns have scored 18 points or less in 3 of their 6 games, and have averaged 13 ppg in their L/2 trips to the gridiron. On the other side of the ball the Browns are a physical group that are hard to play against and the Bucs Im betting have a hard time doing dome offensive damage here in this spot. I know the Buccaneers have gone over in 5 straight but because of this the total of this tilt is overinflated. It must be noted that teams like the Bucs that have allowed at least 80 combined points their last two games are a long term 28-64-1 UNDER dating back to the 2010 season with the average combined score clicking in 42.5 ppg.

Cleveland was blasted last Tim out by the Chargers,(38-14) but are  12-3 L/15 UNDER  off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. Cleveland is 4-13 UNDER vs NFC South. 

The L/4 meetings in this series have seen a combined 29.3 ppg scored on average. 

NFL Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games are 7-28 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Osweiler, who completed 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards is the expected starter here again this week for the Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the big numbers because there was huge after the catch numbers posted and  that kind of performance and yards activity is truly odd. The Fins surprised the Bears and took a 31-28 win, also thanks to turnovers something this Dolphins teams not really built for over the long haul and Im betting they will fall back down to earth in their followup against the Lions this week. Meanwhile, the Lions are well rested off a bye week and many might expect them to fly out of the gate here, but in the past they have been more methodical and conservative in their road games, and are  0-5  UNDER L/5 as a road favorite when the total is more than 43. the Lions are also 0-5 UNDER L/5 after a bye. The Lions also take on a a Dolphins defense that has been effective in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs, something the Lions have excelled at this season.If these results  continue to trend this way we have a high probability of wiping a score off the board , which in turn will help keep this total combined score on the low side of the number.

NFL Home teams against the total (MIAMI) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 33-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Minnesota's QB Cousins is ranked fifth in the league in passing,  and has 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. His 71.2 completion percentage is third in the league and he's 10th in passer rating at 102.7. I'm betting he and his Vikings do some extensive damage today vs a NY Jets Defence, that allowed 428 yards off offence in a 42-34 loss to the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Jets behind the capable arm of former USC QB Darnold and a two pronged running attack of running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell, who are helping the Jets churn out an average of 130.5 yards rushing will respond in kind and not be easily slowed down. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

The Vikings are 7-0-1 OVER off a game as a favorite in which they threw at least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average which was the case in a 27-17 win vs Arizona last week. 

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 51-19 OVER L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER