Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with  Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However,  both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting  that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be  the Chargers  inconsistent  offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a  rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. 

Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC.

LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board.

Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Game 15  or less  road chalk of  6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more   have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. 

NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone  16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog .  

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard ---  Arizona is also 10-1 OVER  L11 vs NFC South  with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored.  Panthers are 7-0 OVER  L7 vs NFC West  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical  type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories  that  saw them  go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored.

Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk  of  1 or more  points  like the Browns  have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER  versus any NFC opponent  when the totals offering is  54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs  NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. 

Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC.

These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. 

Play on under 

Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams  like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt  have gone  under 16 straight times  in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as  NFL contests  have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities  when both  sides  are of a home defeat  in their last game  . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. 

Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. 

LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER  in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons

Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

. NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im  looking at beatable totals numbers as a  critical money making factor this season .  With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option  NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored  and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ  banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D.  Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. 

BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games

NY JETS  in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

AFC Playoffs - Championship

The KC Chiefs exploded  offensively in a a back in forth game against the Buffalo Bills last week pulling off the over time win. Now Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs the visiting Bengals and their offense could easily be a little more muted this Saturday which Im betting will directly effect this total to the under. 

 CINCINNATI is 24-8 L/32 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-1 L/16  UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with the average ppg  with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored. 

NFL eam where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. 

PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. 

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

AFC Playoffs - Wild Card

Entering this game the Vegas D has allowed 20 points or less 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. In their season finale the Raiders did have a defensive breakdown, allowing 32 points in a 35-32 slugfest victory, but from a historical perspective the Raiders have clamped down in their following game especially if was a shootout, as is evident by the following trends.  Note:Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games following a straight up win.LAS VEGAS is 36-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game with a combined score of 42.4 ppg scored. LAS VEGAS in their L/13 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog have seen a combined average 42.6 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Joe Burrows and company are a virgin group with no big league play off experience, and this will be detrimental to them and their offensive cohesiveness. Despite of the accolades that Burrows gets there have been obvious interruptions their flow on offense and Im betting that will once again be an issue. 

Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 Wildcard games.Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 playoff games.Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games in January.

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total  (VEGAS /CINCINNATI) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

With so many players injured and the additional woes of covid protocols and the possibility of both teams resting starters at some point during this game, I dont feel their will be enough positive flow for a big offensive output here tonight between these foes. I honestly believe that no matter what these coaches say staying healthy for the play offs is the main goal, which to me relates to an affair with very little cohesiveness. 

Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in January. Philadelphia is 0-6 UNDER off a division road game victory. 

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a road favorite.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC. Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas road games have seen a combined average of 42.9 ppg this season. Note: The Cowboys are 0-6 L/6 division road tilts. 

DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored. 

McCarthy is 8-1 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.2 ppg scored.McCarthy is 9-2 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia with the average combined score in those tilts clicking in at 30.2 ppg. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team (4.5 or more  YPR) against an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 85-54 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Pittsburghs offense has been highly inconsistent this season, and have scored 20 or less points in 5 of their L/8 trips to the gridiron. Here today vs a KC side that is playing at a very high level behind a strong D,  Im expecting another muted offensive effort from the Steelers. It must be noted that before their last outing where they allowed 28 points, the Chiefs had  given up 17, 7,14, 9, 9, 9 points respectively.  On the flip-side, the Steelers achilles heal has been their rush defense, and today I expect Reid and company to pound the ball in anticipation of an expected success rate, which in turn will eat plenty of clock time and help the combined score stay on the low side of the total.

 Steelers have gone UNDER in 19 of their L/ 21 non-division away Tilts  when the Total is set at    53  or less points. Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

KANSAS CITY is 38-18 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored.  KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play this season with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game are 90-44 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City.

Play the  UNDER 

These divisional rivals have a recent history of fairly low scoring affairs as is evident by  a 37.8 ppg combined score in their L/4 meetings overall. History does not always necessarily repeat itself but it does have a tendency to mimic it. 

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 7-1 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

Carroll is 16-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored. 

Arizona has gone under in 13 of their L/14 in games in the 2nd of back to back road games.

Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 after a MNF affair. 

Division games have a tendency of generally  being hard fought conservative affairs late in the season usually from game 11 onward into the play offs ( line of 44.5 to 60) as is evident by a 225-143-5 UNDER run for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 39-14 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing teams are 33-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jags average 13.8 ppg on offense this season and Houston average 13.6 ppg. These teams have problems moving the ball and nothing changes here today in sunny  humid Florida.  JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER  when playing with 6 or less days rest this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 UNDER   after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Meyer is 6-0 UNDER (after scoring 14 points or less last game as the coach of JACKSONVILLE with the combined score clicking in at 33 ppg.  

Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games.

. NFL home favorites that off a division road shutout defeat like the Jaguars have gone a perfect 0-12 UNDER since 1996 when the Totals  line is  38 points or more. 

Houston has gone under in 3 straight divisional road games . Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

This divisional game Im betting will be a hard fourth grinding affair. I know anything involving QB Murray of Arizona is looked at as a point fest. However, because of the importance of this game for these teams, and the usual inter divisional biases, taking the under here looks to be a viable betting option in what Im betting will be a chess like lower scoring affair.

Arizona is  0-7 UNDER  L7 as divisional  Home Favorites  and from a historical perspective Arizona is  0-8 UNDER in their L/8 Monday night appearances. 

ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 38.1 ppg.

LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER   after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 9-1 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 104-58 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Washingtons D is something special in its current form, despite of mostly sub standard numbers overall. This group is as tough as nails and allowing 17, 19, 21 and 15 points respectively in their L/4 tilts and will not easily be pushed around at the line of scrimmage again this week. On the road the Football team are averaging just a little over 20 ppg in offense  Meanwhile, Las Vegas has mostly struggled on both sides of the ball, and finally got their first win 4 tries on the 25th of Nov vs the Cowboys. After that exhausting  36-33 offensive slugfest vs Dallas last time out  Im betting on an immediate reversion to the mean offensively for the Raiders this week with the added rust of an extended lay off to hamper their output and this help keep this game stay on the low side of the number.  .Dating back to the 2015 season all teams like Washington off 3 straight underdogs wins with a line of 43 or more have gone under 8 straight times.

Washington is 5-0 UNDER L/5 vs NDC West sides.

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37 ppg scored,

WASHINGTON is 16-4 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

 Tilts involving non conference conflicts (AFC vs NFC) have only seen 8 of the 32 games eclipse the offered total. 

Play UNDER 

They both are dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thursday night in New Orleans which sets up well for a slower paced game. 

Two viable defenses go head to head in prime time football this Thanksgiving. Buffalo has allowed just 17.6 ppg and the Saints have given up an average of 21.8 ppg.  Thursday home pups  like the Saints  have gone UNDER all 5 times this season with a combined average of  36.8 ppg going on the board. Note: From a historical perspective it must be noted that the Saints have gone UNDER in   in their last 9  Thursday nighters with a combined score of 39 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard.  Meanwhile, Buffalo was asleep at the wheel last week and were upset  by a ugly 41-17 count by Indianapolis  which Im betting will have them ready for a  vigilant  bounce back effort especially on D. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 30.9 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. McDermott is 12-4 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games on fieldturf.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Thanksgiving nigh tilts have stayed lower scoring in 10 of the L/14 events staying below the offered total by an of 5.8 ppg, with the under cashing 6 straight times. 

Play UNDER 

We have a top tier West Division battle between Arizona and Seattle this Sunday afternoon, both were off losses with the Seahawks getting shutout . Seattle’s  enters this game playing a top tier brand of  defense football, allowing  13, 7, and 17 pts allowed in their last 3 games and  come in with a  having eclipsed the total just once in 9 games this season and were shutout last time out with a total of 17 points being scored . The average line of Seahawks tilts has been  48.9 with the average   combined score clicking in at  40.7 ppg.

Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games as an underdog.

Whether QB Kyle Murray plays (ANKLE) or is less than 100% Im betting he is kept mostly at bey. 

 It must be noted that NFL WEST DIVISION games  L/37 seasons  when the home team is an underdog of 6 pts or less  the under has hit 75% plus  of the time after game  8 or greater (15-49-1 UNDER ).

 Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as a road favorite.Under is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 games on fieldturf.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games ARE 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a struggling  passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Green Bays defense shined last time out with a 17-0 polishing of Seattle. Im expecting their D, to stand tall again this week in this key divisional battle vs Minnesota, a side of a hard fought victory last week vs the Chargers. Note: Minnesota has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their L/7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games.

Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games overall.Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC.

GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER (when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 UNDER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a combined average of 34.5 ppg scored.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games are 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season ere 42-14 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D is atrocious but the Dolphins are not a team that can take huge advantage of this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are not trusting Mike White under center, and the play calling from the offensive coordinator is amateurish at best making futility the call here today and a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total.  

NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in home games versus struggling  rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 41-14 UNDER  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return .

MIAMI is 61-39 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 35 points or more in 2 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 29-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.

Play UNDER 

Texas has scored 9 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games and today if they can muster that many points Ill be surprised vs a Titans team that held KC to just 3 points a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Tennessee after 5 straight grueling games against top tier competition could end up using this game as a de-facto bye week, and not put the pedal to the metal or even be inclined to do so as they save some juice for the play offs . This equates to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. 

HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. DD road dogs like Texas off their bye week have gone under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the gridiron when the total is 42 or more. Texans are 1-10 L/11 under as a road dog of 3 points or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-13 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-14 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Dallas is really lighting it up and look like a team possessed scoring  35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 trips to the gridiron .Non-Division teams  like the Cowboys who produced  35 or more points off offense  in each of their last 4 contests  are a perfect 6-0  L/6  opportunities OVER  when the  Total is 46 or higher. Dallas has gone over 9 straight times, vs the NFC north where the Vikings reside, and Im betting on rested legs and off a bye week they will light the board up against vs a inconsistent Vikings D.Over is 14-3-1 in Cowboys last 18 games following a bye week.DALLAS is 11-3 OVER  in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons for a combined average of 61.1 ppg. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings also off a bye week will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will result in a combined score to go over the offered number. Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games following a bye week.Over is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 vs. NFC.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER  as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

The Texans have scored a total of 35 points in 4 games (8.75 ppg). Arizona has allowed an average of 18 ppg, and Im betting both these means to averages will continue. I know the Texans D, is atrocious and the Cards are putting up points in bunches, but Im betting Texas does everything possible to turn this into a grinding slow motion affair. On the flip-side Arizona is off a road underdog win last time out, and be in a letdown state here vs a side that Im sure they are not taking very seriously no matter what they say. Also after playing 3 of their L/4 games and at break neck speed this will be a spot where the Cardinals energy levels will be lower than usual which will relate to a slower event that may might expect. These are my expectations, and right or wrong Im betting this game with confidence to the under.

HOUSTON is 10-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game  with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. 

Note: undefeated non-division home teams like the Arizona Cardinal from GAME 5 and beyond  have gone a  0-11-1UNDER L/5 seasons  when the Totals offering is  45 or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, after the first month of the season are 46-18 UNDER  L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Detroit is ranked 28th  in scoring  in the NFL averaging  18.3 ppg and here against a solid Rams D, that output average will be further muted and have scored 17 or less points in 5 straight. That lack of productivity  Im betting will  help keep this combined score under the offered number. It must be noted that the LA Rams play at the rate in the NFL averaging just 59 plays per game. I expect a slower more deliberate game from the Rams after playing 2 consecutive  road games. Its takes time to use to home cooking so I dont expect them to be as explosive as usual. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons of 31.4 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg going on the board. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Giants offense is banged up with Barkely Jones expected out  and a few more keys guys expected to miss or be less than 100% if they do play. The giants struggle at the best times to score so now this week against a tough D, Im betting their output  problems continue . This is a contributional factor I have used to recommend we take the under here today. The Gmen have seen their L/6 home games stay under the total with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. inconsistent  defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.2 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-5 in Rams last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 21-7 in Rams last 28 games as a favorite.Under is 11-4 in Rams last 15 games as a road favorite.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NY GIANTS) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, with a losing record are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

This game is a one way street to an over in my betting opinion. Chiefs  rank 30th  in overall defense  allowing. a whopping 438 ypg)and rank 30th in scoring defense at 31.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bills average 33.5 ppg and more than 400 ypd on offense. I know the Bills D is strong, but KC can score and explode offensively against any side, and put 40 points on the board last week. This is a pretty high total but Ill take a square stance here and take the over in what should be a prime time shootout. KANSAS CITY is 9-1 OVER  in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER (  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a. combined average of 57.3 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 73-36 OVER L/38 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

These are two very solid defensive sides going head to head today. Cleveland has allowed 16.8 ppg this season, and LAC 18.5 ppg. More of the same looks to be on tap this Sunday. 

LA CHARGERS are 29-11 UNDER L/40  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER L/10 versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game with a combined average of 30.7 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.4 ppg going on the board. 

 Cleveland in  wins in which they allowed only 6 and 7 points  which was the case against the Bears in Vikings have seen   All non-division road teams off back-to-back wins in which they allowed 7 or less points EACH go under 7 straight times dating back 10 seasons. 

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 56-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

KC has played some back and forth affairs this season, scoring and allowing more than 24 points in all 3 games.    In the past this has resulted in NFL teams going   0-7-1 UNDER  in  the  last 4 season in the following tilt  when the following perimeters have been met-  NFL road favorites of  3 or more  pts after scoring and allowing 24  pts  or more in EACH of their last three tilts. With the Eagles on short rest off a Monday night game Im expecting a more subdued conservative effort vs a more rested team. Also I doubt highly the Eagles will be willing to take part in a shootout here and this Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER   in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at  34.5 ppg . PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER   in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.5 ppg going on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.1 ppg scored. 

. PHILADELPHIA has gone an UNDER- 13-31 UNDER for a  70% conversion rate  in all home games over the last 5 seasons including having  gone under in 9 of 10 games as home pups of 7  or less points . 

Play UNDER

After the disaster of week 1 , for Green Bay which resulted  in a lopsided 38-3 loss to New Orleans I expect a disciplined effort from the Packers in what will be a conservative mind set vs their long time division rivals the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the gridiron crew from Motown will also be ready to be more defensive minded after a 41-33 shootout in week 1 that resulted in a loss. Note: DETROIT is 37-20 UNDER  L/57  in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 

NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 31-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 22-2 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week,  the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable  ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected.  KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992  with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL  team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons .

My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. 

Washington has gone under in 8 of their L10 since the first month of the season, with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

Pederson is 12-1 UNDER in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.  Pederson is 13-0 UNDER  in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 39.1 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

NFL home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta is missing  two key starters for this tilt against KC  on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. 

TLANTA is 7-0 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 26-10 UNDER L/36 in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 39.2 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 13-3 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 point with a combined average score of 34.2 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 27-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group.

The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. 

Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

The Bears are 0-9 UNDER L/9 coming off an upset win where they scored at least 24 points.
The Bears are 0-10 UNDER L/10  off a game as a dog where they covered.
Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games as a road underdog.Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games in December.Under is 20-8 in Bears last 28 games as an underdog.

Under is 11-4 in Vikings last 15 games in December.

Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

NFL Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-3 UNDER L/ 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate fro bettors with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 24-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Chic/Minn under 

Buffalo is off a huge win vs Pittsburgh last time out, and will be in an emotional letdown spot here this week, and could easily find themselves starting slowly on offence  which will directly effect the total combined score here in this tilt vs a Denver side that almost always struggles on offense averaging just 15.7 ppg at home this season.

The Broncos are 0-10-1 UNDER coming of a road game where they threw for at least 250 yards.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-3 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Play Under - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more) playing a team with a losing record are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

NFL Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 424-290 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

Tonight games is supposed to be a windy affair with gusts of 20 mph and average winds clicking in at 14-17 mpg. With that said, Im betting on both sides reverting to run heavy ground games, and short passes which will eat alot of clock time and help keep this score to the low side of the total. 

Note: Divisional under  reg/playoffs since with a total of between 44.5 to 60 since 2005 are 204-124-4 UNDER for a 62% conversion rate. 

CLEVELAND is 22-10 UNDER L/34 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

BALTIMORE is 12-3 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

BALTIMORE is 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 104-53 L/37 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Pittsburghs offense has stalled in its last two games in recent weeks, but Im betting Tomlin and company will be more aggressive this week and get back to the 24 to 37 point output consistency they managed previous to those tilts. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really started to roll , scoring 44, 30,27, 34 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron and more than capable of piercing the Steelers top tier defence. The above combination will see this tilt eclipse the total. My projections estimate both sides will score 20+ points. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Detroit plays wide open football at  home in the dome the past two years. The Lions are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 at home. 

DETROIT is 10-0 OVER L/10 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  60.3 ppg scored. 

The Packers are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 on the road coming off a game where they allowed less than 310 total yards. 

Play OVER

Im betting the Titans explosive offense will tee off on a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Meanwhile, on the flipside  Tennesse  ranks in the  bottom five in DVOA and could easily get pierced by a Jacksonville side  that has scored 25 or more points in  4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. These teams have seen 60 plus points go on the board in recent meetings. Note:  Titans QB Tannehill has seen 21 of his L/25 games go over the set total in a regular season game. The Titans are 11-0 OVER L/11   facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 75 yards against last meeting. TENNESSEE is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with an average of 57 ppg going on the board in those gamesTENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER

My projections estimate this total to be closer to 48 which gives us alot of value here based on that projection. I perception here by the lines-makers and much of the public is that this will be a field position chess match, but I do not see it that way. Last week , the Pats put 45 points on the board, and look ready to surge offensively behind Cam Newton, while the Rams bounced off a loss in their previous week to put 38 points on the board in a win. I know both sides have shown under the total tendencies, and New Englands overall offensive numbers might look like smoke and mirrors, but Im expecting enough fire works based on my models to recommend  we take the over. This game is all about flow, and both come in here surging. Note: NFL  home favorites like the Rams  of 3+ points on artificial surface are 29-0 OVER when they are off a double-digit vicotry as a  favorite and they are going against a side   that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game as visitors with a combined average of 55.4 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER

HC Reid of KC likes to play teams he deems as lower tier sides alot more conservatively than might be expected. I believe Reid trys not to exert to much energy against inferior opponents especially if his team has bigger goals ahead like this version of the team he resides over which will usually translate into the positive of  less injuries. This type of game plan will Im betting see a lower combined score than the linesmkaers are expecting. 

Reid is 12-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. Reid is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average combined score clicking in at 40.1 ppg. Reid is 16-4 UNDER  in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

The Chiefs are 0-9 UNDER L/9  as a home favorite of more than a TD when the line is more than seven points lower than last game.

The Broncos are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they failed to cover.  Broncos have gone under in their L/7 division road games. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 26-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles won 34-27 at Green Bay last year, which marked the Packers' only home loss and Im expecting more surprising action from a Philadelphia side that is still looking for a ;possible play off appearance. My projections estimate a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. 

The Packers are 14-0-2 OVER L/18 coming off a home game and playing a team below .535 on the season. Green Bay  is 11-1 OVER L/12  after division home game. GREEN BAY is 21-8 OVER ( versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored.

Over is 30-14 in Eagles last 44 road games. Philadelphia 7-0 OVER L/7 away vs NFC North. 

Play OVER

After losing for the 2nd straight time and being embarrassed by a 43-6 count last time out, I expect the Raiders to get back to basics and run the ball more consistently while playing a conservative game and a much better brand of defense. Today against a jets steam that struggles with offensive consistency as was evident by a 3 point output last week, Im betting we see a game that stays on the low side of the number this week. 

LAS VEGAS is 16-6 UNDER (L/22  in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game with a combined average score of 44.1 ppg. 

 NFL  team against the total (LAS VEGAS) - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

These teams offenses do not run a very high speeds. Seattle is ranked in the middle of league in pace with the Eagles offense ranks 25th in pace. Both these offensive lines rank 31st and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which will Im betting makes for some stalled plays and adjusted yards that see backward movement. Philadelphia offense overall rank 30th overall and 30th in passing offense and Im betting their lack of explosiveness will also hamper the combined points basket here. Meanwhile, the Eagles D, continues to improve, and deserves respect here against Wilson and company.  On the flips side I know the caveat here is the Seahawks Defense, but it is uptrending in my charts, and now that they are getting heal-their could easily continue to improve. With Seahawks Carroll recently deciding to revert back to a more run heavy attack, Im projecting a more grinding game than the lines-makers might expect. 

Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in November.T

he Eagles are 0-15 UNDER L/15 at home facing a team allowing more than 21 points per game with a combined average of 35.13 ppg going on the board with none of the 15 games going over this total. 

Play UNDER

The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line with injuries to A.Q. Shipley, Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted as they struggle to protect senior QB Tom Brady. Meanwhile, on the flipside as explosive as KC can be Im also betting they will be in tough here today vs an impressive Bucs defensive front.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL away teams like  like the Chiefs that won more than ten games the previous regular season and are not on a four-plus game losing streak are 0-23 UNDER L/23 when they are off a away tilt,  and have an average turnover margin of more than one-half, and they are now going against a side that has averaged more than 36.5 passes per game season to date.

Play on the UNDER 

Recently the Steelers run D, has struggled and today Im betting the Jags in a move to stay close and to try to pull off the upset will attack and try to move the chains via their ground game in very conservative fashion which will help keep the clock churning. Also on the flip side experienced HC Tomlin knows  his team needs to take a significant step forward after failing to go over 50 yards rushing in any of their past three game. Im expecting Tomlin to be more aggressive than usual with the ground game , as it needs to improve as we head towards the play offs which will make his team less predictable. This Im betting also helps us cash on the under  in what should be a grinding affair. 

Pittsburgh is 0-14 UNDER L/14 when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 going under by more than a TD  on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500.
 

 Jacksonville is 0-16 L/16 UNDER on a natural surface when they are off a road loss and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1.75 turnovers per game season-to-date.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 35-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Arizona and Seattle are both known for scoring and allowing a boatload full of points but the lines-makers have over compensated here according to my projections. These teams have not had a 57 or higher Total attached to their games that I can find in my data base going back over a 30 year span. It must noted that teams like Arizona that have  scored 28 or more points  in each of their last four tilts have gone under 16 straight times when at least three of those games went over and their opponent is not undefeated on the season. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 89-48 UNDER L/37 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

  My projections estimate that this Total  is almost a FG higher than my number 48 - thus giving us value on a under selection. Yes, I know the Broncos, have allowed an  average of 35.7 points over its last three games , but this team is much better defensively than their current run would suggest, and offensively they are extremely inconsistent scoring 18 or less points in 5 of their 9 games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Vegas  has recently found a groove in their run game churning out 209-yard day against Cleveland and followed it up with 160 yard against the Chargers and will want to keep that formula in play which in turn should churn up alot of clock time which will help us cash a under ticket. 

Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-7 in Raiders last 29 vs. AFC West.

The Broncos are 0-10 UNDER  coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected.  Under is 10-3-1 in Broncos last 14 vs. AFC West. Under is 20-8-1 in Broncos last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over  12 straight times  when they are off a defeat when  facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than  31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting  will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. 

 Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the OVER 

The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in  third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they  run the ball recording a  50.1% clock consuming  average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping  the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number.

These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. 

NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER

Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. 

 Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER  when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. 

 The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500.

Play UNDER 

 The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring  tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more  are 19-55-1  to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 
 

The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. 

Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at  23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides  finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on  each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the  Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina  Panthers ranking 21st.

My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight  against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the  Bears offense  without  Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams  run defense  but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams  combined for an average 22.5 points per game  total the last two meetings. 

Bears are 0-13-1  UNDER L/14  off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. 

Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.

The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER  at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the  scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while  the Steelers have averaged  31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit  13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their  possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13).

Play OVER 

Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v

KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs.

BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  45 ppg going on the board. 

NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Miami QB Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions, tied for third most in the NFL. His passer rating ranks 28th and now this week I expect he will be out to protect the ball and make shorter smarter passes buoyed by his teams running game which Im betting eats up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Niners struggled on the offensive line last week, allowing 16 pressures, which is not a good omen for offensive flow here today. With that said, Im betting this number is just a bit bloated and should be closer to 47.5/ giving us value to the under. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he does play will be less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 34-19 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 27-10 L/37 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 

Play on the UNDER

Tom Brady and company have accumulated a whopping 97 points (32.3 points per game) in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Knowing this Im betting on the Bears coming up with a very conservative game plan here on the road and try to slow this tilt down to a crawl. Note: With Tarik Cohen  out for season  the Bears offense in no way behind QB Foles is going to be fluid. (The Bears ran for just 28 yards last week) Also with Buccaneers WRs Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) missing this week TBs offense may not be as fluid. 

CHICAGO is 12-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

I know we have to good QBs on the field today with Carr and Allen taking snaps, but because of this and some recency bias we have a total that is bloated and only good for public consumption. 

BUFFALO is 9-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 30.2 ppg scored. McDermott is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 33 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LAS VEGAS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Denver and the NY Jets have showed very little flow on offence this season. Denver ranks 30th in DVOA and the NY Jets ranks 31st in DVOA. Both sides have offensive ,line and QB issues, not a good recipe for a high scoring affair, which favors the under.  

 DENVER is 6-0 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.2 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 33.9 ppg scored. 

NY JETS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 33 ppg going on the score board. 

NFL Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight losses by 10 or more points are 26-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Both teams have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line and because of this Im betting offensive flow will be hampered here this week. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 40.4 ppg.  PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Pederson is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 35.8 ppg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 24-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence  and scored just 6 points  in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at  4.4 yards per play  and just  13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number.

Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. 

Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. 

Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

New York has revamped one of the NFL's worst defenses under new coordinator Pat Graham. Defence will now be their priority behind what is expected to be a slower paced offence that will key on using  RB  Barkley  to move the chains consistently.  Meanwhile ,the Steelers Im betting will have flow problems behind the wobbled Roethlisberger who returns after another season of injuries. It must also be noted The Steelers led the NFL with 54 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries and 38 takeaways last season, finishing ranked fifth overall on defense and that will Im betting remain consistent in a tilt I have projected to stay under the the total. 

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

With some game time PTSD , permeating the sidelines of the Chiefs as they remember going down 21-0 to this same Texas team in last years play offs before mounting a huge comeback win . Now with that in mind Im betting the Chiefs to be primed for a  fast start and build a substantial lead.  At that point QB Mahomes would be directed by Reids side line coaching crew to take the foot off the  proverbial pedal and for the Chiefs defense  to go hog wild on  Deshaun Watson as he is forced to open up and  go down field. 

Reid is 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average score of 40.1 ppg scored and  is 15-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily  tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in  less first downs and offensive flow and that  will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. 

SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t  have  gone under at a  36-22-1 clip  including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL  play off games  games have  been going under more often than not  notching a  75-56-4  UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and  public perceptions.  

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored.  

KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER  in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total)

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

Play UNDER

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s  tilts involving 2 above .500  sides  are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. 

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0  L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board.

NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER  L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

 Two red hot  offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th.  The Buccaneers  have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of  61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored.

The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight  away  tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are  6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. 

Play OVER 

The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg  going on the scoreboard in their  L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a   Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg .

The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona  team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said,    I expect both teams to do  fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting  goes over the total. 

The Cards will playing their  2nd game straight game  vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd  of back-to-back  non conference games are 13-0 OVER. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on OVER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The mighty Ravens played a pretty good defence last week vs the Buffalo Bills and still were able to notch 24 points. I know that was a hard fought game and LeMar Jackson is experiencing some quad problems, but he is still set to to go , and extremely dangerous from a offensive standpoint. I know the Ravens have a couple big games to finish off this season, and some might think they are over looking the Jets. However , Harbaughs team has been full tilt since the preseason, and Im betting they bring it here tonight again and really light up the scoreboard for a national audience. They just don't lighten up, and that has me on the over. 

Note: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robby Anderson are establishing a solid connection late in the season for a second straight year and Im betting they do more damage offensively than many might expect , which also help us cash an over wager here this evening. 

Ravens are 6-1 OVER L/7 vs AFC East and have gone over 5 of 6 times in Thursday nighter  vs non-division opposition. 

Play OVER 

These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging  20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19  ppg in their L/6 overall tilts.  In their most  recent  five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. 

CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Green Bays D looked bad last week when they allowed 37 points to the 49ers in a loss. It must be noted that Game 15 or  less conference chalk who allowed 35+ points on the road last week like Green Bay did are  1-16 UNDER L/4 seasons when the Total is listed at  49 points or less. Im betting last weeks ugly defensive effort was an anomaly and that the Packers concentrate on shoring up their defence vs a rookie signal caller and a team averaging just 19.7 ppg on offence this season. 

Meanwhile, the Packers offence also struggled, as Rodgers was sacked five times on Sunday night. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his right knee and left the game. Alex Light replaced him but struggled. so offensive line issues could once again make things tough on Rodgers here in NY vs the Gmen this Sunday. This limiting GBs offensive output. 

Both these teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in offence and today Im betting we see why. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - with a terrible passing D - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars got blasted last week by a 42-20 count at Tennessee. However is must be noted Jacksonville is 0-5 UNDER aft division road tilt and 1-7 L/8  UNDER after allowing  35 or more. pts . I know that this week they go against an explosive TB offence, but it must also be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  just 30 ppg going on the board. 

The Jaguars have been crushed on the ground the last three games, allowing more than 200 yards rushing against Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. It was the fourth time in the last seven games an opponent topped 200 yards rushing against Jacksonville, a franchise record. Knowing this Im betting the Bucs will be pounding the ball on the ground alot today, in attempt to exploit the Jags major weakness, which in turn will eat alot of clock time which will effect the overall output of this tilt to the under.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, in December games are 30-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 28-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Until last week against the Pats top tier defence the Cowboys offence was on a roll, scoring 35 or more points in 3 of 4 games. After regressing last week in a 13-9 slugest, facing the Bills will not seem like such a big challenge and Im expecting some conclusive output here by the Cowboys in place where they have averaged 30+ ppg this season. Meanwhile, defensively the Cowboys are now battered and bruised after the heavy battle last week and wont be as resistant to the Bills run game. Note: Garrett is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of DALLAS with . combined average of 54 points going on the board while the Boyz D allowed 28 points during that 9 game stretch. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. are 73-31 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Niners / Packers enter into this fray having had a recent history of fairly high scoring affairs with   6 of the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total, with an combined average of 50 ppg scored .  It must be noted that NFL games involving two top tier sides with a  .700 or better win percentage are  a  perfect 8-0 OVER L/8   in any game past week 8 ( 8 games played ) during the regular season! With QBs Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers throwing the rock Im betting on  a tilt that goes over this number. Both sides, have surprisingly bad defensive rush numbers against with GB ranking 27th  and  the 49ers 26th against the run. that will see both sides pound the ball, on the ground which in turn will open up the field for play action which I'm betting  will result in big plays and a lot of scores. I know sometimes we try to read between the lines, and not trust our instincts , however, this is a tilt that smells like a blood bath for the books as sharps and the public will pound this number  over at the current offering. 

Play OVER 

Mexico

KC has shown itself to be vulnerable against viable ground attacks of late and currently rank   31 st in defensive run success rate and because of this I expect the Chargers will focus on their run game to move the chains and eat clock time . This strategy will keep the Chiefs star QB Mahomes out of his flow and off the field for long chunks of time which Im betting equates to a lower scoring grinding affair than the public expects. Note: LA CHARGERS is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5  or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board. 

LA CHARGERS is 15-4 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored.

NFL Division games with high totals ( 44+) have gone under at a 180-109-3 62% clip since the 2003 season. 

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate . 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 46-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER