After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week,  the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable  ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected.  KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992  with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL  team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons .

My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. 

Washington has gone under in 8 of their L10 since the first month of the season, with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

Pederson is 12-1 UNDER in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.  Pederson is 13-0 UNDER  in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 39.1 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

NFL home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta is missing  two key starters for this tilt against KC  on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. 

TLANTA is 7-0 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 26-10 UNDER L/36 in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 39.2 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 13-3 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 point with a combined average score of 34.2 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 27-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group.

The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. 

Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

The Bears are 0-9 UNDER L/9 coming off an upset win where they scored at least 24 points.
The Bears are 0-10 UNDER L/10  off a game as a dog where they covered.
Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games as a road underdog.Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games in December.Under is 20-8 in Bears last 28 games as an underdog.

Under is 11-4 in Vikings last 15 games in December.

Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

NFL Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-3 UNDER L/ 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate fro bettors with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 24-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Chic/Minn under 

Buffalo is off a huge win vs Pittsburgh last time out, and will be in an emotional letdown spot here this week, and could easily find themselves starting slowly on offence  which will directly effect the total combined score here in this tilt vs a Denver side that almost always struggles on offense averaging just 15.7 ppg at home this season.

The Broncos are 0-10-1 UNDER coming of a road game where they threw for at least 250 yards.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-3 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Play Under - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more) playing a team with a losing record are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

NFL Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 424-290 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

Tonight games is supposed to be a windy affair with gusts of 20 mph and average winds clicking in at 14-17 mpg. With that said, Im betting on both sides reverting to run heavy ground games, and short passes which will eat alot of clock time and help keep this score to the low side of the total. 

Note: Divisional under  reg/playoffs since with a total of between 44.5 to 60 since 2005 are 204-124-4 UNDER for a 62% conversion rate. 

CLEVELAND is 22-10 UNDER L/34 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

BALTIMORE is 12-3 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

BALTIMORE is 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 104-53 L/37 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Pittsburghs offense has stalled in its last two games in recent weeks, but Im betting Tomlin and company will be more aggressive this week and get back to the 24 to 37 point output consistency they managed previous to those tilts. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really started to roll , scoring 44, 30,27, 34 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron and more than capable of piercing the Steelers top tier defence. The above combination will see this tilt eclipse the total. My projections estimate both sides will score 20+ points. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Detroit plays wide open football at  home in the dome the past two years. The Lions are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 at home. 

DETROIT is 10-0 OVER L/10 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  60.3 ppg scored. 

The Packers are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 on the road coming off a game where they allowed less than 310 total yards. 

Play OVER

Im betting the Titans explosive offense will tee off on a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Meanwhile, on the flipside  Tennesse  ranks in the  bottom five in DVOA and could easily get pierced by a Jacksonville side  that has scored 25 or more points in  4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. These teams have seen 60 plus points go on the board in recent meetings. Note:  Titans QB Tannehill has seen 21 of his L/25 games go over the set total in a regular season game. The Titans are 11-0 OVER L/11   facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 75 yards against last meeting. TENNESSEE is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with an average of 57 ppg going on the board in those gamesTENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER

My projections estimate this total to be closer to 48 which gives us alot of value here based on that projection. I perception here by the lines-makers and much of the public is that this will be a field position chess match, but I do not see it that way. Last week , the Pats put 45 points on the board, and look ready to surge offensively behind Cam Newton, while the Rams bounced off a loss in their previous week to put 38 points on the board in a win. I know both sides have shown under the total tendencies, and New Englands overall offensive numbers might look like smoke and mirrors, but Im expecting enough fire works based on my models to recommend  we take the over. This game is all about flow, and both come in here surging. Note: NFL  home favorites like the Rams  of 3+ points on artificial surface are 29-0 OVER when they are off a double-digit vicotry as a  favorite and they are going against a side   that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game as visitors with a combined average of 55.4 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER

HC Reid of KC likes to play teams he deems as lower tier sides alot more conservatively than might be expected. I believe Reid trys not to exert to much energy against inferior opponents especially if his team has bigger goals ahead like this version of the team he resides over which will usually translate into the positive of  less injuries. This type of game plan will Im betting see a lower combined score than the linesmkaers are expecting. 

Reid is 12-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. Reid is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average combined score clicking in at 40.1 ppg. Reid is 16-4 UNDER  in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

The Chiefs are 0-9 UNDER L/9  as a home favorite of more than a TD when the line is more than seven points lower than last game.

The Broncos are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they failed to cover.  Broncos have gone under in their L/7 division road games. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 26-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles won 34-27 at Green Bay last year, which marked the Packers' only home loss and Im expecting more surprising action from a Philadelphia side that is still looking for a ;possible play off appearance. My projections estimate a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. 

The Packers are 14-0-2 OVER L/18 coming off a home game and playing a team below .535 on the season. Green Bay  is 11-1 OVER L/12  after division home game. GREEN BAY is 21-8 OVER ( versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored.

Over is 30-14 in Eagles last 44 road games. Philadelphia 7-0 OVER L/7 away vs NFC North. 

Play OVER

After losing for the 2nd straight time and being embarrassed by a 43-6 count last time out, I expect the Raiders to get back to basics and run the ball more consistently while playing a conservative game and a much better brand of defense. Today against a jets steam that struggles with offensive consistency as was evident by a 3 point output last week, Im betting we see a game that stays on the low side of the number this week. 

LAS VEGAS is 16-6 UNDER (L/22  in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game with a combined average score of 44.1 ppg. 

 NFL  team against the total (LAS VEGAS) - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

These teams offenses do not run a very high speeds. Seattle is ranked in the middle of league in pace with the Eagles offense ranks 25th in pace. Both these offensive lines rank 31st and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which will Im betting makes for some stalled plays and adjusted yards that see backward movement. Philadelphia offense overall rank 30th overall and 30th in passing offense and Im betting their lack of explosiveness will also hamper the combined points basket here. Meanwhile, the Eagles D, continues to improve, and deserves respect here against Wilson and company.  On the flips side I know the caveat here is the Seahawks Defense, but it is uptrending in my charts, and now that they are getting heal-their could easily continue to improve. With Seahawks Carroll recently deciding to revert back to a more run heavy attack, Im projecting a more grinding game than the lines-makers might expect. 

Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in November.T

he Eagles are 0-15 UNDER L/15 at home facing a team allowing more than 21 points per game with a combined average of 35.13 ppg going on the board with none of the 15 games going over this total. 

Play UNDER

The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line with injuries to A.Q. Shipley, Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted as they struggle to protect senior QB Tom Brady. Meanwhile, on the flipside as explosive as KC can be Im also betting they will be in tough here today vs an impressive Bucs defensive front.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL away teams like  like the Chiefs that won more than ten games the previous regular season and are not on a four-plus game losing streak are 0-23 UNDER L/23 when they are off a away tilt,  and have an average turnover margin of more than one-half, and they are now going against a side that has averaged more than 36.5 passes per game season to date.

Play on the UNDER 

Recently the Steelers run D, has struggled and today Im betting the Jags in a move to stay close and to try to pull off the upset will attack and try to move the chains via their ground game in very conservative fashion which will help keep the clock churning. Also on the flip side experienced HC Tomlin knows  his team needs to take a significant step forward after failing to go over 50 yards rushing in any of their past three game. Im expecting Tomlin to be more aggressive than usual with the ground game , as it needs to improve as we head towards the play offs which will make his team less predictable. This Im betting also helps us cash on the under  in what should be a grinding affair. 

Pittsburgh is 0-14 UNDER L/14 when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 going under by more than a TD  on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500.
 

 Jacksonville is 0-16 L/16 UNDER on a natural surface when they are off a road loss and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1.75 turnovers per game season-to-date.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 35-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Arizona and Seattle are both known for scoring and allowing a boatload full of points but the lines-makers have over compensated here according to my projections. These teams have not had a 57 or higher Total attached to their games that I can find in my data base going back over a 30 year span. It must noted that teams like Arizona that have  scored 28 or more points  in each of their last four tilts have gone under 16 straight times when at least three of those games went over and their opponent is not undefeated on the season. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 89-48 UNDER L/37 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

  My projections estimate that this Total  is almost a FG higher than my number 48 - thus giving us value on a under selection. Yes, I know the Broncos, have allowed an  average of 35.7 points over its last three games , but this team is much better defensively than their current run would suggest, and offensively they are extremely inconsistent scoring 18 or less points in 5 of their 9 games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Vegas  has recently found a groove in their run game churning out 209-yard day against Cleveland and followed it up with 160 yard against the Chargers and will want to keep that formula in play which in turn should churn up alot of clock time which will help us cash a under ticket. 

Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-7 in Raiders last 29 vs. AFC West.

The Broncos are 0-10 UNDER  coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected.  Under is 10-3-1 in Broncos last 14 vs. AFC West. Under is 20-8-1 in Broncos last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over  12 straight times  when they are off a defeat when  facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than  31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting  will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. 

 Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the OVER 

The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in  third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they  run the ball recording a  50.1% clock consuming  average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping  the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number.

These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. 

NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER

Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. 

 Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER  when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. 

 The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500.

Play UNDER 

 The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring  tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more  are 19-55-1  to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 
 

The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. 

Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at  23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides  finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on  each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the  Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina  Panthers ranking 21st.

My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight  against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the  Bears offense  without  Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams  run defense  but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams  combined for an average 22.5 points per game  total the last two meetings. 

Bears are 0-13-1  UNDER L/14  off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. 

Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.

The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER  at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the  scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while  the Steelers have averaged  31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit  13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their  possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13).

Play OVER 

Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v

KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs.

BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  45 ppg going on the board. 

NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Miami QB Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions, tied for third most in the NFL. His passer rating ranks 28th and now this week I expect he will be out to protect the ball and make shorter smarter passes buoyed by his teams running game which Im betting eats up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Niners struggled on the offensive line last week, allowing 16 pressures, which is not a good omen for offensive flow here today. With that said, Im betting this number is just a bit bloated and should be closer to 47.5/ giving us value to the under. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he does play will be less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 34-19 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 27-10 L/37 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 

Play on the UNDER

Tom Brady and company have accumulated a whopping 97 points (32.3 points per game) in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Knowing this Im betting on the Bears coming up with a very conservative game plan here on the road and try to slow this tilt down to a crawl. Note: With Tarik Cohen  out for season  the Bears offense in no way behind QB Foles is going to be fluid. (The Bears ran for just 28 yards last week) Also with Buccaneers WRs Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) missing this week TBs offense may not be as fluid. 

CHICAGO is 12-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

I know we have to good QBs on the field today with Carr and Allen taking snaps, but because of this and some recency bias we have a total that is bloated and only good for public consumption. 

BUFFALO is 9-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 30.2 ppg scored. McDermott is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 33 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LAS VEGAS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Denver and the NY Jets have showed very little flow on offence this season. Denver ranks 30th in DVOA and the NY Jets ranks 31st in DVOA. Both sides have offensive ,line and QB issues, not a good recipe for a high scoring affair, which favors the under.  

 DENVER is 6-0 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.2 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 33.9 ppg scored. 

NY JETS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 33 ppg going on the score board. 

NFL Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight losses by 10 or more points are 26-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Both teams have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line and because of this Im betting offensive flow will be hampered here this week. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 40.4 ppg.  PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Pederson is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 35.8 ppg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 24-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence  and scored just 6 points  in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at  4.4 yards per play  and just  13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number.

Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. 

Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. 

Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

New York has revamped one of the NFL's worst defenses under new coordinator Pat Graham. Defence will now be their priority behind what is expected to be a slower paced offence that will key on using  RB  Barkley  to move the chains consistently.  Meanwhile ,the Steelers Im betting will have flow problems behind the wobbled Roethlisberger who returns after another season of injuries. It must also be noted The Steelers led the NFL with 54 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries and 38 takeaways last season, finishing ranked fifth overall on defense and that will Im betting remain consistent in a tilt I have projected to stay under the the total. 

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

With some game time PTSD , permeating the sidelines of the Chiefs as they remember going down 21-0 to this same Texas team in last years play offs before mounting a huge comeback win . Now with that in mind Im betting the Chiefs to be primed for a  fast start and build a substantial lead.  At that point QB Mahomes would be directed by Reids side line coaching crew to take the foot off the  proverbial pedal and for the Chiefs defense  to go hog wild on  Deshaun Watson as he is forced to open up and  go down field. 

Reid is 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average score of 40.1 ppg scored and  is 15-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily  tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in  less first downs and offensive flow and that  will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. 

SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t  have  gone under at a  36-22-1 clip  including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL  play off games  games have  been going under more often than not  notching a  75-56-4  UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and  public perceptions.  

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored.  

KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER  in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total)

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

Play UNDER

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s  tilts involving 2 above .500  sides  are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. 

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0  L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board.

NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER  L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

 Two red hot  offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th.  The Buccaneers  have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of  61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored.

The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight  away  tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are  6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. 

Play OVER 

The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg  going on the scoreboard in their  L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a   Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg .

The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona  team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said,    I expect both teams to do  fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting  goes over the total. 

The Cards will playing their  2nd game straight game  vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd  of back-to-back  non conference games are 13-0 OVER. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on OVER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The mighty Ravens played a pretty good defence last week vs the Buffalo Bills and still were able to notch 24 points. I know that was a hard fought game and LeMar Jackson is experiencing some quad problems, but he is still set to to go , and extremely dangerous from a offensive standpoint. I know the Ravens have a couple big games to finish off this season, and some might think they are over looking the Jets. However , Harbaughs team has been full tilt since the preseason, and Im betting they bring it here tonight again and really light up the scoreboard for a national audience. They just don't lighten up, and that has me on the over. 

Note: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robby Anderson are establishing a solid connection late in the season for a second straight year and Im betting they do more damage offensively than many might expect , which also help us cash an over wager here this evening. 

Ravens are 6-1 OVER L/7 vs AFC East and have gone over 5 of 6 times in Thursday nighter  vs non-division opposition. 

Play OVER 

These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging  20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19  ppg in their L/6 overall tilts.  In their most  recent  five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. 

CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Green Bays D looked bad last week when they allowed 37 points to the 49ers in a loss. It must be noted that Game 15 or  less conference chalk who allowed 35+ points on the road last week like Green Bay did are  1-16 UNDER L/4 seasons when the Total is listed at  49 points or less. Im betting last weeks ugly defensive effort was an anomaly and that the Packers concentrate on shoring up their defence vs a rookie signal caller and a team averaging just 19.7 ppg on offence this season. 

Meanwhile, the Packers offence also struggled, as Rodgers was sacked five times on Sunday night. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his right knee and left the game. Alex Light replaced him but struggled. so offensive line issues could once again make things tough on Rodgers here in NY vs the Gmen this Sunday. This limiting GBs offensive output. 

Both these teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in offence and today Im betting we see why. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - with a terrible passing D - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jaguars got blasted last week by a 42-20 count at Tennessee. However is must be noted Jacksonville is 0-5 UNDER aft division road tilt and 1-7 L/8  UNDER after allowing  35 or more. pts . I know that this week they go against an explosive TB offence, but it must also be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  just 30 ppg going on the board. 

The Jaguars have been crushed on the ground the last three games, allowing more than 200 yards rushing against Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. It was the fourth time in the last seven games an opponent topped 200 yards rushing against Jacksonville, a franchise record. Knowing this Im betting the Bucs will be pounding the ball on the ground alot today, in attempt to exploit the Jags major weakness, which in turn will eat alot of clock time which will effect the overall output of this tilt to the under.

NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, in December games are 30-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 28-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Until last week against the Pats top tier defence the Cowboys offence was on a roll, scoring 35 or more points in 3 of 4 games. After regressing last week in a 13-9 slugest, facing the Bills will not seem like such a big challenge and Im expecting some conclusive output here by the Cowboys in place where they have averaged 30+ ppg this season. Meanwhile, defensively the Cowboys are now battered and bruised after the heavy battle last week and wont be as resistant to the Bills run game. Note: Garrett is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of DALLAS with . combined average of 54 points going on the board while the Boyz D allowed 28 points during that 9 game stretch. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. are 73-31 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Niners / Packers enter into this fray having had a recent history of fairly high scoring affairs with   6 of the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total, with an combined average of 50 ppg scored .  It must be noted that NFL games involving two top tier sides with a  .700 or better win percentage are  a  perfect 8-0 OVER L/8   in any game past week 8 ( 8 games played ) during the regular season! With QBs Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers throwing the rock Im betting on  a tilt that goes over this number. Both sides, have surprisingly bad defensive rush numbers against with GB ranking 27th  and  the 49ers 26th against the run. that will see both sides pound the ball, on the ground which in turn will open up the field for play action which I'm betting  will result in big plays and a lot of scores. I know sometimes we try to read between the lines, and not trust our instincts , however, this is a tilt that smells like a blood bath for the books as sharps and the public will pound this number  over at the current offering. 

Play OVER 

Mexico

KC has shown itself to be vulnerable against viable ground attacks of late and currently rank   31 st in defensive run success rate and because of this I expect the Chargers will focus on their run game to move the chains and eat clock time . This strategy will keep the Chiefs star QB Mahomes out of his flow and off the field for long chunks of time which Im betting equates to a lower scoring grinding affair than the public expects. Note: LA CHARGERS is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5  or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board. 

LA CHARGERS is 15-4 UNDER  after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored.

NFL Division games with high totals ( 44+) have gone under at a 180-109-3 62% clip since the 2003 season. 

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate . 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 46-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Atlanta  is off a top tier defensive effort last time out holding the  Saints  on the road to only 310 total yards   in a surprisingly dominate  26-9 road win. Now in a divisional battle they take on a Carolina  team that they have a history of playing low scoring grinding games  against with 9 of the L/11 staying UNDER the total. with a combined average of 39.5 ppg game going on the board.  At this time of the season, from a historical stand point it must be noted that the  UNDER in NFL division games when each team has played 10 games  has cashed 21 of the L/24 times since 2008  and has cashed 10 straight times overall  when  the total is 44 points or more. .It must also be note that  the Panthers have gone under in 26 of their L/30 games dating back to 1999 as division  home chalk  of 10 points or less.

ATLANTA is 10-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 8-0 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 36-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Im betting this divisional rivalry will be a hard fought fairly low scoring battle. I know Seattle has shown itself to have a some problems in the secondary , and that many believe that Jimmy G, can take advantage of them, but with his most dynamic offensive weapon, tight end George Kittle,  banged up with a knee issue spreading the field could be an issue. On the other side of the ball, SF has shown issues stopping the run, and Seattle should be out looking to take advantage of this which will keep the clock ticking when the Seahawks have the ball. This above combination will help keep this combined score to the low side of the number. 

SEATTLE in their L/6 road  games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 season have seen a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored. HC Carroll  in 14  road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE has seen a combined average of 42 ppg going on the score board.

Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 Monday games.

Under is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 L/27 UNDER in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with a combined average of 40.8 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a terrible defense (370 or more YPG) after 8+ games are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

 In the recent past when top tier teams do battle the OVER has hit 10 straight times dating back to last season  when the  teams involved own  .700 or better record on the campaign  , and the  Total is is 41 or more  points. The combined average combined score of these tilts has clicked in at  67.5  points per game!  

The Ravens have gone over in 5 straight vs NFC East and have gone over in 6 of their L/7  as 3 or more point dogs.

 Harbaugh is 10-1 OVER  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 48.3 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE/NEW ENGLAND) - off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG are 39-13 OVER 36 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

New Orleans beat Arizona handily 31-9 last week. San Francisco had Sunday’s most lopsided victory, defeating Carolina 51-13. Tonight Im betting on SF regressing offensively, after last weeks explosive output , while their own top tier D continues to thrive. The Niners are ranked 2nd in the league in ppg allowed at 11. San Francisco has surrendered 23 total points in their last four games. Note:The last two meetings here in Arizona between these two teams have seen 33 combined points scored both times by identical 18-15 scores favoring Arizona. 

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 30-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Dolphins rank last in the NFL in passer rating and Im betting things are not going to get any better tonight, as their offence will flounder against a capable D.  Meanwhile, with Steelers, QB Mason Rudolph,   making his first appearance at Heinz Field in 3 weeks  ended when he  barely made his way to the sidelines following a vicious hit to the head by Baltimore's Earl Thomas that briefly left him unconscious, may still find himself a little gun shy this week. With that said and HC Tomlin being the alert coach he is will most like and  probably peg his offensive schemes on a  ground heavy approach which in turn will eat clock time. The above combination of projected events will make for a low scoring affair. Note: The Steelers owns the 6th slowest pace in the league, and the Fins when they are losing a game by more than 7 points own the slowest pace in the league. 

PITTSBURGH is 10-2 UNDER  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg. 

Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.Under is 9-2 in Steelers last 11 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Steelers last 8 games on grass.Under is 20-7 in Steelers last 27 games in October.

Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games on grass.Under is 8-2 in Dolphins last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 13-4 in Dolphins last 17 games in Week 8.Under is 6-2 in Dolphins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.

Big chalk  of  13  or more points have gone UNDER the Total  in 18 of the L/23 games, when the number is 52 or less points.

Miami has gone under in 10 of their L/11 as non-division  dogs of 10 points or more. 

Play UNDER

The Panthers are fresh off a  bye week, which Im betting will see them  energized and ready to rumble here this week against a viable SF offence behind top tier QB James Garoppolo .  The Panthers have gone over in 5 straight off a week off, and have gone over the total in 7 of their L/8 vs a side with a .800 or better win record and eclipsed the total in 4 of their L/5 vs NFC west. Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone over in 9 of their L/11 vs a side of bye. Yes, folks I know how dominate the Niners defences has been , but because of this early season recency bias , we get a very good number to bet into from a over bettors perspective according to my projections. A reversion to the mean here for the 49ers D makes for a portion of my decision making process this Sunday. 

CAROLINA is 8-1 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.9 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 27-1 OVER L/26 seasons for a 97% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER

The Raiders have back to back road underdog wins and 3 straight wins overall, and proving that they maybe better than many expected. It must be noted that both games easily eclipsed the total, and they have gone over in 3 straight games overall.  Meanwhile, Green Bay is off a short week after playing a Monday night game at Lambeau and their D maybe a little tired and vulnerable forcing Aaron Rodgers to air it out more than might be expected this Sunday . Note: NFC chalk off a Monday Night division game like the Packers ... have gone 19-2-1 OVER dating back 8 seasons, including a 100% perfect 9-0 OVER when the Total is north of 45 points. Also GREEN BAY is 16-2 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg going on the board.

Im projecting for both teams to score 20+ points here tonight. OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.6 ppg. GREEN BAY is 9-2 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

This series has gone over 5 straight times average Total of : 44.7  and the  average combined score clicking in at 51.4 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Neither one of these teams is as good or as a bad as they have looked so far this season. No the Fins offence is not as bad as it seemed early on , as was evident when QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was put under center last week , almost bringing his team back from a 14 point deficit. With that said, Im expecting Miami to do more offensive damage than than the linesmakers expect this week behind the arm and mind of one of the leagues most under rated QBs. Meanwhile, Buffalo in its usually methodical way will also land some blows in a game I have pegged to eclipse this artificially low total that is based almost solely on recency bias of unders by both sides. Note: Miami has allowed an average of 36 ppg this season!

BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER  vs. terrible ball control teams, 28  or lessminutes TOP, 16 or less FD's per game with a combined average of 46.8 ppg scored.

 Buffalo has gone over the L/7 times its has been made a 8 point or more favortie. 

Dolphins have gone over 5 straight times  after a non conference home game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-12  OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 41-13 OVER L/36 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Here we go as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers in what Im betting will be a  fairly high scoring affair.  Im betting on Lions QB Mathew Stafford  who has owned the Packers D  in the recent past to have a big night here. Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns in nine consecutive battles in this series, and nothing will change tonight. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and  in his usual way will return fire, despite of being without WR Davante Adams and will  also use explosive RB  Jones who leads the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns to rip apart of the D line  as has been his MO . Jones has  over powered his way into the end zone in six straight games at Lambeau Field. 

These teams have gone over 6 of the L/7 meetings with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 49.1 ppg. Detroit in their L/5 MNF games have seen a combined average score of 54.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

The Lions as a dog off a loss when they failed to score in the red zone at least 3 times, have gone over in the following game 7 straight times with at least 50 combined points scored. Im looking for the Lions to be very much more aggressive here tonight especially in the red zone, and to do a fair amount of offensive damage which will buoy this combined score over the number.

Play OVER 

Patrik Mahomes only has one TD in his last two games, and Andy Reids D, is play ing lazy ball. Now that its become obvious that Mahomes is not a football god just yet, and possibly experiencing a sophomore jinx, this chiefs D is going to have up their game.  Meanwhile, Texas is off an explosive 52 output last week, and in a all out offensive battle  vsTB in a win and now Im expecting a regression to the mean. This combination will Im betting make for a lower scoring game than public and pundits might expect.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 39.9 ppg. Reid is 18-4 UNDER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Reid is 21-7 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored.

The Chiefs are 3-15  UNDER as +5 or more non division home chalk. 

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER  off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored and have gone under 4 straight times after a win by 14 or more points.

HOUSTON has gone under in 10 of their L/11 non division home games.

Play UNDER

  Houston offensive line has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks so far this season, but hat wont be an issue today vs a Atlanta side that just cannot generate much of a pass rush.  With said, Im expecting the sometimes explosive and talented Jamies Winston to have a big day today. Meanwhile, the Falcons stud QB Matt Ryan  ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards  as is evident by having thrown for 300 or more yards in every game this season and should once again have a huge day vs a wobbly Texans secondary that has been torched on a regular basis this season . 

Over is 17-4 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf.

Over is 15-5 in Texans last 20 games in October.

Road teams against the total (ATLANTA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 63-32 OVER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

All these early season low scoring games by two of the leagues top defences so far has this Totals number vulnerable for over bettors to cash. My own projections estimate a combined score in the low 40s, thus from a mathematical perspective based on those estimates Im recommending we take an over stance. 

NFL TENNESSEE is 31-13 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 or less yards/game with a combined average of 42.7 ppg. TENNESSEE is 23-10 OVER   in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game with a combined average of 44.1 ppg scored and in their L/21 games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game have seen a combined average of 48.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 33-11 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

After giving up 55 points last time out to Tampa Bay in a loss the Rams will be ready to slow things down and get back to playing hardcore defence. Meanwhile, Seattle almost always fields a tough D, as was the case when they allowed just 265 yards to New  Orleans in their last home game which some how ended in a loss. Im betting they will be even more diligent and conservative here in their return home as they look to protect the ball from turnovers. This above projected combination of projected game plan scenarios, makes for a viable under wager. 

Carroll is 11-3 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 38 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 51-21 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (SEATTLE) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 35-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Rams held the Saints to only nine points in their first home game this season and they were all over Drew Bree's and he finally got injured and left the game. This Rams pass rush is vicious and against a TB front 7 that allowed James Winston to be sacked 4 times last week, things won't get much better here and as a result of my prognosis Im betting the Bucanners point production will also take a hit. Note:The Buccaneers a have gone under 9 straight times off a home defeat  that saw their QB sacked  four or more times with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored with the highest output coming in at 45 points. I also expect the Rams to be methodical in their approach as they look to keep Jeff Goff healthy and protected from an improving TB pass rush that has 5 sacks last week vs the Giants and for RB Todd Gurley to participate more than he did in last weeks game vs the Browns where he was targeted just once. This combination Im betting will lead to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 68-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Both Minnesota and Oakland are off losses last week after notching victories in week 1.

This week I expect the Vikings to come out with all guns blazing after suffering a loss to the Packers last week by a 21-15 count. Cousins the Vikings QB did not have a great performance last week, but here at home vs a Raiders’ defense that has allowed a 120.5 passer rating and that will be without safety Jonathan Abram, Im betting Cousins flourishes and puts a load of points and production on the board via play action based on RB Dalvin Cooks ability to open up the field with the run. He leads the NFL with 265 rushing yards . Im also expecting Raiders QB Derek Carr to do just enough damage to see this combined score eclipse the total. 

Over is 4-0-1 in Raiders last 5 games on fieldturf. Over is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team against the total (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 61-24 OVER L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams like Oakland are  28-0 OVER L/28 as a 5 or more  point underdog on artificial turf when they are off a home loss and facing a non-divisional opponent that is allowing fewer than 22.8 ppg season-to-date, but had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last contest.

Play OVER

These teams took part in low scoring affairs last week so a lot of the public is jumping on the under here. However, Im betting on a different result. The Titans  and Jaguars  have  averaged 46.6 combined ppg in the last 7 meetings and a combined score in that range is on my projection charts for this tilt. 

 Division tilts  in week 3 of the reg season have gone 21-5 to the OVER when the Total  is set at 39 points or more.AFC South Division contests like this one   are 7-0 OVER  dating back 7 seasons  when the home side is a underdog  of 3or more  points.NFL home underdogs  have gone 17-4 OVER  dating back 11 seasons when both teams sides scored and allowed less than 20 points in their last game which was the case for both teams.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/TENNESSEE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 37-12 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Andy Reids explosive KC Cheifs jumped out of the shoot last week, with a 40-27 win at Jacksonville . But it must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 7 of their L/10 after putting 40 or more points on the board, thanks in part to the lines makers over adjusting because of recency bias.  Meanwhile, Oakland also won their first game 24-16 with good offensive management and a strong looking D. With the departure of Antonio Brown and a limited experienced WR group, Im expecting alot of short passes and clock burning running plays, to limit their output production vs what Im betting will be a more viable KC D this season.  Note: The Raiders  have gone under in back to back  division games and have gone under in 6 of their L/8 as 7 point or more home dogs. Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Under is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games following a straight up win.

OAKLAND is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 11-2 UNDER  versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. OAKLAND is 21-9 UNDER  in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (OAKLAND) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 89-42 L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

These long time rivals Washington and Dallas saw alot of yards get accumulated in their week 1 games. The Redskins combined for 834 combined yards, and the Cowboys combined for a whopping 964 combined yards. Im betting on more of the same non stop action this week when these teams go Helmut to Helmut. Note:These teams in their L/7 meetings  have seen a combined average of   51.4 ppg go on the board with 6 of the 7 games eclipsing the total. 

Gruden is 7-0 OVER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the scoreboard.

All game 2  NFL road favorites who scored 35 or more pts in Game One like Dallas have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER dating back 10 seasons! 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (WASHINGTON) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 7 or more passing yards/attempt, in conference games are 45-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the first month of the season are 68-34 OVER L/36 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Both these teams lost their opening games, but it must be noted that  during the L/6 seasons the UNDER is 9-1 in all Game 2s with  home  favorites of 3  or more points when both sides  are coming  off a SU loss . Note: Both teams we blasted for 31 and 30 points respectively which makes for a recency bias on this total.  Note:  During the 2018 campaign, the UNDER was dominant  cashing 12 of 13 times when both teams gave up m 30 or more  pts   in their previous game, when the Total is within the parameters of 42 to 53 points. Carolina is also 3-21 under L/24 as division home chalk and have gone under 3 straight times after allowing 30 or more points. 

TB has gone under in 9 of their L/11 as 6 or more point dogs. 

t must be noted that Bruce AriansTB QB guru is getting set to help out his talented QB Winston cut down on turnovers and realize his potential as the No. 1 overall pick from the 2015 draft  by running the ball more effectively.With second-year pro Ronald Jones II leading the way, Tampa Bay rushed for 121 yards in last week's loss and will once again be utilized to make this into a grinding type affair vs a Carolina team that has proven itself less than explosive over the last few seasons. 

These two teams have gone under 5 of the L/6 times they have met . Average  Totals line: 49. The Average combined points  per game clicked in at 39.3 ppg. 

Play UNDER

This might seem like a public leaning total , but according to my projections this combined score  here this Monday night between the Texans and their hosts the explosive Saints should breach this number. Note: Brees has thrown 37 scoring passes in 17 career Kickoff Weekend games, the most of any quarterback. I expect the Saints to light the scoreboard up here tonight and for the Texans to have no choice but to open things up behind  quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first player to throw for at least 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns while rushing for 500 yards and five scores in a season and  respond with some fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.

The Saints are 4-0-1 OVER L/5 games on turf on Monday night dating back 5 seasons with a combined average score eclipsing the total by more than 10 ppg. 

Over is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games in Week 1.

Play OVER 

Bucs defense allowed 29 ppg last season and Im not expecting a miraculous bounce back season even though Bruce Arians is now  on board. The lousy pass rush wont be able to challenge ,Jimmy Garoppolo and Im betting the now healthy QB will smash a still susceptible secondary. Meanwhile, James Winston despite of being highly inconsistent is a very capable passer, and he will be up the challenge here on the road this week, behind a speedy group of wide receivers. 

Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in September.Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September.  TB 8-2 OVER as fav/dog 3 or less. 

Play OVER 

No Andrew Luck at QB for the Indianapolis Colts, no problem. With a revamped offence engineered by offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, and a offensive line that is uptrending, the interim QBs should do just fine and points production should not be the problem many pundits might anticipate. Players like RB  Marlon Mack  who rushed for 900  yards and nine touchdowns last season and , T.Y. Hilton  who produced 1,200 receiving yards in 14 games, and tight end Eric Ebron led all NFL tight ends with 13 touchdowns is an explosive group who can do lots of damage and quickly. The Colts D, is still a work in progress, so they may also allow a fair amount of points and will need to be a pedal to the metal type offensive side to be competitive. Meanwhile, Chargers star QB Phillip Rivers will continue to put points on the board, especially with targets like receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the fold. Today against a susceptible Colts secondary this Im betting will become obvious, and will overall help us see a combined score that goes over the total. 

Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in Week 1Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in September.Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games in Week 1.

Play OVER

The Seahawks were the NFL’s top rushing team last season, averaging 160 yards a contest and Im betting they will just explosive this season which will set up their passing  game behind the arm of Russell Wilson  and an over all increase in ppg production. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati  Bengals were smashed  for 137.8 rushing yards a game last season, and I expect there will be no immediate fixes for their defensive issues be a broken damn. The Bengals only saving grace will be the big red machine QB  Andy Dalton who can be dangerous when in a groove. Im expecting Dalton to be very impactful here in new HC Taylor new offensive schemes. 

Over is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 games in September. Over is 4-1-1 in Bengals last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 7-2 in Bengals last 9 games in Week 1.

Over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall.Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games on fieldturf. Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Carroll is 27-11 OVER in non-conference games as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The high octane offence of the KC Chiefs behind phenom Patrick Mahomes comes into the heat and humidity of Jacksonville this Sunday in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of a public leaning total. Im betting Jacksonville has had sufficient time to study this explosive group, and behind a top tier D, will slow the Chiefs here ( at least enough to keep their Chiefs output to reasonable levels). Meanwhile, Im also betting it will take time for the Jags,   to  jell offensively, thanks to their new parts, (QB Nick Foles)  and for the Chiefs D, to be much improved over last seasons hands off version. ( Changed form a 3-4 to 4-3 scheme) Add to that a muggy Sunday environment we have a more methodical game than many might expect and a lower combined score than the public is counting on. 

The Jags  L/13   home  games since the 2017 season,  have seen them allow  an average of just 12.7 points per game and their offence has average just 19.9 points per game. 

Reid is 12-4 UNDER against AFC South division opponents as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 43 ppg going on the board.Reid in 74 games  as a favorite as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average score of 45.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.Under is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall.Under is 16-7 in Jaguars last 23 vs. AFC.

Play on the UNDER 

The Panthers have gone  UNDER in their in their last 7 opening games of a NFL season going under the number by 14 ppg and we all know how conservative this team is out of the gate and overall general terms. I know they will face an explosive offence here today, but last season the Rams played much more conservatively on the road then at home, going under in their L/5 road games, and Im betting that trend continues here today as they make the long arduous trip from the west coast to the east coast. It must be noted that week one none division road chalk of -2 or more  are 4-24-1 UNDER  dating back 20 seasons .

These teams have gone under in 5 of their L/6 meetings with a combined average of 30.2 ppg going on the board and another lower scoring game will be on todays agenda according to my projections .

The Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 away with a 50 or more point total. The rams have the Saints up next week ( 0-7 UNDER L/7before the Saints). Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 as road favs -2 or more. 

Panthers have gone under in 6 of their L/7 with a total of 48 or more.

Play UNDER

The public seems to love this game to go over , but the public has a tendency to not delve to deeply into statistical data and trends. 

In preseason the Packers did not play their star QB Rodgers as well as two other key offensive weapons Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams so Im betting  it will take some time for the Packers to become cohesive offensively here tonight , especially considering they will be facing a Chicago Bears team that was first in weighted D last season, ranking first in pass efficiency and 2nd and run efficiency. Meanwhile, the Packers Defence, was upgraded in the off season, using their first two round picks to pick up  linebacker Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage, and then also acquiring free-agent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith to bolster a tough hard nosed group. Im expecting barring injuries for the Packers D to be stringent this season and tonight.

Considering Bears QB Trubisky is getting a reputation for being sloppy with the ball , his play calling maybe limited by the coaches, and a more conservative game 1 plan could be in the cards. Note: The Bears offence ranked 30th in the league in pace last season, so "slow as she goes" could once be the mantra here tonight. 

Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games on a natural surface.Under is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC.

The L/10 times these teams have met the average combined score has in clicked in at 44.9 ppg. Bears home games have gone under 58% of the time since the 2016 campaign. Nagy in 6 games versus division opponents as the coach of CHICAGO has seen a combined average score of 43.7 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CHICAGO) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 53-22  UNDER since 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Future HOF QB Tom Brady,  , threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers last week to advance to the championship game  and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs when they played back in October. Im betting on the Pats doing a boat load full of damage again, and for the KC Chiefs behind the best young arm in football Patrick Mahomes to also light up the board in a game I have pegged to go over the number. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

In game theory, an outcome is a situation which results from a combination of player's strategies. Every combination of strategies (one for each player) is an outcome of the game. A primary purpose of game theory is to determine which outcomes are stable according to a solution concept. Thus usually the most likely explanation and most likely scenario is the most likely outcome. 

 Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 playoff games.Over is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ENGLAND) - an excellent offensive team (27 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 26-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25  or less turnovers/game committed) are 68-30 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

My projections estimate 62 combined points going on the board or more.

Play on the OVER 

NFC Divisional Playoffs

Alot of pundits were concerned with the way the Eagles defence played this season, but in their L/2 staunch physical efforts they shut out their opponent in their final  regular season game , and then allowed a strong Bears team to score just 15 points last weekin their Wild Card affair . Im betting Phillies under rated D stands tall  again against, a New Orleans offence that actually struggled quite bit at the end of the season procuring 14 points or less in 3 of their L/5 games. This I expect will see a much lower scoring affair then lines-makers and public are expecting. 

Note: I know the Saints walloped the Eagles back in November putting 48 pints on the board, but the defending champs learned alot about their opponents offence that day and will be ready for a much better effort in the rematch. 

NFL Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season like Philadelphia  are 0-27-1 UNDER  by an average  9.96 ppg when playing their second straight road game with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored. Note: PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after allowing 30 points or more last game are 42-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

This game involving the Indianapolis Colts (9-6)  and their hosts the  Tennessee Titans (9-6) highlights a situation where which ever team wins goes to the play offs and the other to no no land. Im expecting a conservative game from both sides.

 Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a UNDECIDED this week after leaving his  Week 16 win vs Washington with a  nagging  neck-elbow injury that has bothered him all season long. If he plays he will be less then 100% and  if  his  below average backup Blaine Gabbert  gets the call.Either way   Im expecting HC Vrabel to be conservative in his approach to this important game and mainly use the ground game to move the chains in an effort to keep Andrew Luck off the field for long chunks of time and get him out of his flow.  

 The Colts coach Frank Reich’s teams usually grind along with their opponents in games like this and look for the big play somewhere along the way. It must also be noted that the Colts in the past when they go against a  team that averages more than 27.5 rushing attempts per game and the total is less than 50,   they have gone under 14-straight straight times .

INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 pig scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 13-2 UNDER  in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TENNESSEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 23-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Saints clinched a division title last week, and  Im betting will now be in a letdown situation that will see their attack muted. Meanwhile, I expect Carolina to play a more grinding clock consuming style of football in an attempt to slow and take the flow away from what has been a dynamic offence this season. This combination of projected occurrences  Im also betting will be responsible for a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

CAROLINA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games with a combined average of 41.3 ppg going on he board. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.1 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 Monday games.Under is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 5-1 in Saints last 6 road games.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games on grass.Under is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 8-3 in Panthers last 11 games in Week 15.Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.

  NFL  team against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - after a 2 game road trip, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 61-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 27-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Game time temp is expected be a frigid 39 degrees this Thursday night in KC with moderate wind that will go across the field and could easily effect the fluidity of this game. The visiting  Chargers Im betting will very vigilant and conservative in their approach vs an explosive KC team here this Thursday night. QUOTE: "I think our guys have to be in tune for (big plays)," Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "Because every play you have to be ready because it could be the one." END QUOTE:  The Chargers learned alot about KCs offence in a. 38-28 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season, and will be better prepared this time around Mahomes and company down. Note: Chargers coach Anthony Lynn is well aware of Mahomes' ability. Both of them went to Texas Tech, and Lynn said he had many conversations with former Red Raiders coach Kliff Kingsbury about the 23-year-old. With that said, Im betting we get a much more muted total score than the public might anticipate. 

LA CHARGERS is 10-1 UNDER  vs. sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.2 ppg going on the board.The Chargers  have gone under 8 straight times as a dog off a home game in which they had zero turnovers.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.9 ppg going on the board. 

The Chiefs are 0-12 UNDER since 2016 at home off a win in which they outgained their opponent.KANSAS CITY is 9-0 UNDER  in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored and is 9-1 UNDER  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65  or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg. 

The Chiefs  have gone UNDER 16 straight times as a home favorite after they had at least 3 more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average last game with the combined average score of 35.2 ppg scored, the highest combined score clicked in at 53, and the lowest at 16 points. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA CHARGERS) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorites are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Seattle has been taking part in some back and forth fairly high scoring affairs of late, but Pete Carrol has voiced concern about his D, and especially about the young secondary, and will be concentrating on making sure break downs are kept under control vs the visiting Vikings tonight. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a defence first team, with a methodical hard nosed old school approach , and should once again be ready to bang and grind tonight in a game that I have pegged to stay under the total. The overall assessment comes from my own power rankings system that uses a system vs system projections. Those estimations points to a combined score that hits in the low 40s ,thus giving us value on the offered number.

Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games in December.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 Monday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

MINNESOTA is 15-6 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.SEATTLE is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in home games after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average score of 28.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 31-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 48-18 UNDER L/35 seasons 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

The Panthers QB Cam Newton is throwing alot of interceptions of late, and now this week I expect the Panthers to go to the ground a great deal and play hard fought defensive brand of physical football. It must be noted that Cleveland has gone UNDER 14 straight times when they are off a road game and facing a non-divisional opponent that has endured  a negative takeaway margin in each of their last two games, as long as they are not getting more than TD.The  Browns are  also 0-20 to the UNDER at home off an ATS loss by more than five points when they are facing a side that is under .600 on the season and they are not more than a FG favorite. Im expecting this to be a hard part affair that stays on the low side of the Total.

Panthers are 1-5 O/U vs NFC South and 1-4 O/U L5 non-conference  home game. The L/4 meetings in this series have seem a combined average of 32 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER L/19 against NFC South division opponents with a combined average of 36.7 ppg scored.Williams is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 25-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 These two teams are struggling despite of having very talented QBS. Green Bay has struggled so much they fired their long time coach McCarthy.  Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight. The quarterback matchup will be in the spotlight and Im betting will produce some offensive fireworks, as both teams look to blast off and out of their slumps with aggressive actions. It must be noted  the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan's numbers do match his teams record as he has  completed 70.9 percent of his passes with 25 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 109.3 rating. Meanwhile, Rodgers considered one of the leagues top pivots is also  a streaky QB, but could explode and go at a run at any time . But from a historical standpoint one can see how talented he is by looking at how accurate and instinctive s he has been in his career having  thrown 336 consecutive passes without being picked off and is closing in on Tom Brady's NFL-record 358 record.

GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games in December.Over is 21-7 in Packers last 28 vs. NFC.Over is 12-3 in Packers last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Over is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The last 3 meetings in this series have seen a combined  (67.3 ppg ) go on the board. 

Play OVER 

  The Minnesota Vikings enter this game ranked No. 10 in defence  and up trending as they have allowed 255 YPG and an average of  just 17 ppg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Meanwhile,  New England’s ranks No. 11 ranked defence has allowed only 17.5 PPG in their last four games overall. 

Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games on fieldturf.

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games in December.Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games on fieldturf.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen average of 39.5 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival, in December games are 41-16 UNDERL/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a 2 game road trip, in December games are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota must go to the pass game alot as their run game ranks 31st in the league in rushing, averaging 84.7 yards per game. It must noted that GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with an average of 51.3 ppg scored. on the flip side the Vikings secondary has been struggling, which is a sign of a high scoring tilt as GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Finally GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons., with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board.


GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.7 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 44-17 OVER L/35 years. for a 72% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on OVER

Giants rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big day vs  the Eagles with 130 yards on the ground and 99 yards receiving in the first meeting this season, and I now expect the GMen to go back to what worked in the first time these teams met and go to the ground attack constantly here today which will eat time on the clock. Yes, last week Eli Manning had a big day, but he is one of footballs most inconsistent QBs, and don't be surprised if struggles this week, and leans on Barkley to get take the workload as the game progresses.  I know the Eagles secondary is banged up, but many think some of the young gun CBs waiting on the sidelines must not be underestimated.  Meanwhile, Philadelphia , has had enormous problems scoring this season, averaging just 20.5 ppg, and after last weeks defensive catastrophe vs the Saints will also be primed to play better D. The above combinations Im betting will see this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

The Giants  have gone under 24 straight times with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a field goal or more with the combined average score clicking in at 29.8 ppg with no combined score eclipsing the 45 point plateau. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1 YPP) after 8+ games are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 14 or more points are 25-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

No one in this league can stop the Saints offence, and the only way your going to beat them is by keeping up offensively. Look for. less than conservative effort from the Flacons as they go all out in an attempt to keep pace here tonight.  It must be noted that NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57 or more points have gone 12-1-1 to the OVER ... and a 9-0 100% OVER when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight .  NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 OVER  after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992 with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored.Payton is 7-0 OVER after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 63.8 ppg scored. Payton is 6-0 OVER in home games vs. struggling  defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average score of 66.4 ppg scored.

New Orleans is red hot averaging 39.4 ppg at home, and will put at least that on the board today in a game that might resemble the one these teams played earlier this season when the  Saints beat Atlanta 43-37 in overtime in Week 3.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (New Orleans/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams 1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games are 44-16 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The NFL has decided to move Monday night's showdown between the 9-1 Chiefs and Rams from Mexico City to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum because of poor field conditions at Estadio Azteca, it was announced Tuesday. 

 This line moved off the opening 63 number. Since the 2000 campaign season,  NFL games with a Closing total OU line of 57  or more points have gone 11-1-1 to the  OVER ... and a 8-0 100% OVER  when the line is 58 or more like we have here tonight . Both these teams can score in bunches and both have shown inability to be inconsistent defensively which Im betting results in a high scoring affair. 

The Chiefs' star  quarterback Patrick Mahomes,  leads the league in touchdown passes (31) and passing yards per game and is second in passer rating, behind only New Orleans' Drew Brees. Meanwhile, the Rams are right behind the Chiefs in scoring, averaging 33.5 points per game, and third-year quarterback Jared Goff is third in the league in touchdown passes with 22 and fifth in both passing yards per game and passer rating.

The Chiefs rank 29th in total defense allowing  24.0 points per game.The Rams are 20th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense, giving up 23.1 points per contest. Tonight Im expecting both to allow a TD or more above their offensive averages which will create a score that eclipses to this number. 

Play OVER