Im betting this is going to be Super Bowl that starts slowly from a offensive perspective and predict a first quarter that will be tightly played .This will see a much lower scorin game than the linesmkaers might expect. 

 Kansas City is on a 13-1-1 Under  against top tier rushing attacks averaging more than 4.7 RYPA.

Chiefs HC  Andy Reid is on 9-3 Under run vs. strong offenses scoring 27 PPG or more per game. 

Philadelphia is 21-12-1 Under the total in its last 34 playoff games.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. are 57-28 UNDER since 2015 with the average combined score clicking in at 42.8 ppg,

Right off the bat Ill say that Im betting on positive regression from Vikings QB Sam Darnold, who is off a ugly performance vs the Lions where he went 18-of-41  for just 166 yards .Prior to that down effort , Darnold had an 18/2 TD/INT ratio over his previous seven games,  and is more than capable of getting back into a groove tonight in Glendale. Meanwhile, on the flipside, the Rams top gun QB Stafford owned a 71% completion rate with a 17/4 TD/INT this season and  less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket . His ability for  quick accurate  releases from this big time slinger will negate the Vikings blitz heavy pass rush. Both teams have the offensive weapons to make this a back and forth event that easily eclipses this total. Note: in the earlier meeting this season between these sides that ended a 30-20 final score, Stafford recorded four touchdown passes and a 73.53% completion rate .Minnesota games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER L/13 and have seen a combined average score of 50.6 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Packers and Eagles faced off in Week 1in Brazil, with the Eagles winning by a  34-29 count.Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has gone against HC Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and  he looked explosive in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers. Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts respectively in the those  three tilts and another big output Im betting goes down today which will directly effect this score to go over the offered total.  Im also betting the QB Love will help his team put enough scores on the board to get us to the promised land. Note:Green Bay games against NFC East division opponents have seen a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored.Green Bay games revenging a loss against opponent havw seen a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.Green Bay games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better are 6-0 OVER ) in the second half of the season have seen a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. Philadelphia games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 8-1 OVER L/9 with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

This is HC Dan Quinn 's regular-season finale at the Cowboys and he says he won't be resting any player . Washington wont  take the Cowboys lightly as they were beaten by them earlier this season. I know many pundits believe that  Dallas after getting hammered by the Eagles last time out, will just go through the motions, but I highly doubt it as their egos are bruised and pros dont like to be humiliated, so look for them to fight hard here in what could be a back and forth game that handily eclipses the total.  

The L/3 most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this offered total with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Dallas is  16-1  Over in the last 17 home rematch games. Dallas is  12-3 to the OVER  L15 divisional home games.  Washington is 6-2 OVER  L8 vs .500  or  opposition.

Play over

NY GIANTS are 12-0 Under the total when coming off a win over AFC opp since 2016. Now in a huge letdown situation after their upset of Washington Im betting on major regression offensively. from the Giants, that will directly effect the combined score of this game to being a lower scoring sleep fest. With the Eagles resting key offensive stars Im betting we see a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the offered number.NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is  18-8 Under  as a single-digit underdog. NY Giants games in games where the line is +3 to -3  have gone under 8 straight times with a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored.

NFL  team like NYG against the total - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 5-29 UNDER since 1983.

Play under

Atlanta Im betting will have their  3rd straight strong offensive  output with new QB Michael Penix Jr under center . In his first two starts the Falcons have averaged 29 points per game and my projections estimate another huge output vs the worst D in the NFL. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Bryce Young needs to make some kind of impact before the season ends and Im betting he will be primed to perform behind a offense that is improving and becoming more viable. Everything points to a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NFC SOUTH division tilts like this  have cashed to the over 9 of the L/10 times with a combined  average of 55.9 combined ppg going on the board. Carolina has gone 12-4 OVER this season and  Atlanta  have gone 13-4-1 to the OVER  as division home chalk  to 2016 , including 7-1 OVER  as home favs of -3 plus points

Play over.

The Steelers had 520 total  yards and 7.9 yards per play in the first meeting.  while the Bengals complied  375 yards and 6.6 yards per play in a 43-38 slugfest. I know the weather conditions wont be ideal here this week, (cold but dry as NO precipitation is expected), but the Bengals can light up the scoreboard  in any environmental condition and the Steelers Im betting can score in bunches  against a sub average Bengals D.

Note: Steelers expected QB Russell Wilson has gone over in 7 straight January games. 

Bengals are 8-0 OVER  L8 vs  .600 or better  opposition and  3-0 OVER on Saturday .

 Home underdogs like the Steelers playing on Saturdays are  9-1-1 OVER  L/9 seasons with a Total  of 42  to 50  point range. 

Play over

The L/3 meetings in this series  have gone over the Total with a combined average of 60.5 ppg scored. With nice weather expected in Santa Clara tonight Im expecting for the conditions to favor an over wager cashing again. We know what Motown can do offensively and I still believe in the 49ers ability to get going especially with the ego bashing they have taken over the last half of this season. This is a great opportunity to compete and to that the Niners need to put points on the board. 

Detroit games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better are 5-0 OVER L/5 for a combined average of 69.6 ppg scored.Detroit games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season are 11-2 OVER since 2023 with. combined average of 57.9 ppg scored.San Francisco games off an upset loss as a favorite.which is the case here have seen 6 straight games go over with a combined average of 50.3 ppg scored.

Play over

Rain expected tonight, but its warm, and Im betting we still see points go on the board. According to my projections this number should be closer to 48. Soggy conditions will make for a ugly game is usually public consensus , but the defenses will also struggle here in this  environment. 

The Packers  enter this road game against Minnesota having scored 30-plus points in their last five games and Im betting they do damage again behind QB Jordan Love and company. On the flipside, we have Minnesotas red hot QB Darnold  who has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last six games with the Vikings scoring 30 plus in their L/4 overall. Needless to say these teams are really in a offensive groove and here in the warm environmentally controlled confines of Minnesotas home dome, it would not be unreasonable to believe that there could at some point  be enough offensive fireworks to propel this combined score over the offered total. The L/4 meetings between these teams here have seen a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. Note: Packers are off a big home win last time out 34-0 on 
MNF- In the following game , NFL away sides  off a home shutout  victory   have gone 10-1 OVER  last 7 seasons. 

Green Bay has ogne over 4 straight times in game 16 of the season, while Minnesota has gone over 5 straight in game 16 of the season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 48-18 OVER since 1983 for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The line has moved up but rightfully so, as plenty of points should go on the board here today as strong QB play must be expected by Burrows and Nix. We know Burrows and company cant be stopped by any  NFL teams, and with  Cincinnati ranked  20th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.086) the Broncos and Nix should also do damage with regularity which makes for an over wager being an advantageous investment option. The Over is 8-3-1 in the 12 games Denver has played against teams with losing records with HC Payton. 

 Games on Saturdays  in the NFL have gone a  9-0 OVER 100%  in the last 3 years when ( the home team is penciled in as chalk like the Bengals are here today and the  line is  between 40 to 50 points.

Play over

Cold weather game being played between two teams, that  have combined to score just 41.5 points per game this season. Both offenses are very inconsistent, making a case for a under wager a strong proposition. 

Seattle away or neutral games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 5-0 UNDER L/5 with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

NFL Home teams like Chicago against the total - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half are 31-7 UNDER since 1983 with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

The Saints are going to be cannon fodder for Green Bay as they play without quarterback Derek Carr (hand), running back Alvin Kamara (calf) and receiver Chris Olave (head).  The line obviously suggests that whats about to happen.  The nastiness of going from the confines of Super dome to the tundra of Green Bay should have them completely frozen up offensively and what will  see New Orleans having alot problems scoring. Because of this I expect the combined score of this tilt not to eclipse the offered number. Note: The Under is 4-1 in the five games New Orleans has played with interim coach Darren Rizzi on the sidelines.  The Saints have not  scored more than  20 in four of those five games. LaFleur, has closed on the Under in 12 of 19 games   the Packers have played vs sides with winning percentages of 25% to 40%.

Play under/

This is an outdoor game in frigid windy Chicago in December. These teams took part in a 23-20 tilt in week 13 and Im betting on this possibly being an even lower scoring affair. Note:

The Motown crew are on a  0-7-1 UNDER run as out door road favorites of points  or more and another lower scoring affair is in the cards today. 

Play on the under

These teams put 57 points on the board in the first meeting in Chicago  and now they go into a indoor game, which will also aid in what Im betting will be a higher scoring event. Im betting with nothing left to lose the Bears interim coaching staff put a game plan in pace that will focus on getting QB Caleb Williams confidence in a good place , before this season ends adn they will try to move the ball more aggressively. On the flipside, Im betting the Vikings strong offense, tees off here ( Vikings  EPA per play of 0.050 this season. Top-10 NFL mark)

 Minnesota games in December games are 8-1 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored.Minnesota games after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 9-0 OVER since 2022 with a combined average of 55.9 ppg scored. The Over is 10-4-1 in the games Vikings have played as a home favorite under  HCO’Connell. Minnesota has gone over 5 of their L/6 division home games.

Play over

The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 57.5 ppg scored. 

The Steelers secondary has been inconsistent this season, and Im betting Eagles Hurts pushes them this week, as the Eagles coaching staff unanimously has said they need to have their passing game going as the post season approaches, and will be out to get things rolling today in a aggressive fashion after struggling last week vs the Carolina Panthers. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be without two starting defenders as- safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjob. On the flip-side I know the Steelers will be without star WR Pickens, but this is a great opportunity for some other guys to stand tall. All in all my projections estimate a score in the 47 point range giving us an edge to the over.

Philadelphia is 5-1 OVER L/6  in 2nd of back to back home games . and 8-2 OVER  L/10 non-conference  home games.  Nick Sirianni as a HC of the eagles in home games in the second half of the season is 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 53 ppg.

Pittsburgh 7-3 L/10 OVER  as non-division road dogs of  6  or less.Pittsburgh games after playing a game at home have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 47.6 ppg scored.Steelers QB Russell Wilson is 9-0 Over the total in last nine starts as non-conference road underdog.

Play over

 The lead referee for this game  Bill Vinovich, is 59% to the under historically in his career.

This non division game projects to be a high scoring one. Note: All game 13s non-division  NFL confrontations  are 12-1 OVER L/13  when the home team is favored  in these non-division tilts for a potent 92% conversion rate..  Tampa Bay in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points (6 games dating back to 2022) have seen a combined average of 52.6 ppg scored.   Las Vegas games after playing their last game on the road are 6-0 OVER with a combined average 50 ppg scored.

Over ha cashed at a  8-0-1 rate in the last nine in this  series.

Play over

This total according to my projections are just a little on the low side and the over offers up profit potential. No Thanksgiving game  has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season  with 2 of 3 eclipsing that number. (Dallas Home games on Thursdays have gone 5-0 OVER  last 4 years and the last 4 Thanksgiving day Cowboys totals have the eclipsed the offering. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving dating back 14 seasons. Dallas/NYG L/5 meetings have all gone over the total. THURSDAY Division Home favorites when the Totals offering is  47  or less  the OVER 9-2  for a 82% conversion rate sinde the 2020 season.

Dallas home games after scoring 30 points or more last game are 8-1 over with a combined average of 59.1 ppg scored. HC Mike McCarthy home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 17-4 OVER with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

I know the Giants had a problem scoring last week putting just 7 points on the board, but it must be noted  NFL road dogs who scored 7 point or less playing as hosts last week , when the OU line is 47 or less are 10-1-1 L/12 opportunities. Also NFL home chalk of  4 points ore more  who were division road DOGS of +7 or more last week like Dallas ( +10) are 17-1 OVER in their follow up tilt. 

Play over

This is the 2nd meeting between these teams this season, and Im now betting both offensive coordinators their players have a better feel on attack each other defenses. In the recent past when these teams played in their 2nd game of the season all 3 games eclipsed the total with a combined average of 49.6 ppg scored.

NFL team like New England where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - a poor offensive team (14 to 18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 41-14 OVER since 1983 with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored.

Play on the over

The Lions offense is averaging 34  ppg on the season, and 38.5 ppg in the last month of play and virtually looks unstoppable entering this game at Indianapolis a team that ranks lower half of the league in ppg allowed at 19th. So Im betting the Lions, scoring more than 33 points and the Colts offense in chase mode in game that easily eclipses the offered total. Detroit games after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-0 OVER with a combined average of 60 points per game scored.Shane Steichen home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games are 5-0 over with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored.

Play over

 Dallas starting QB Cooper Rush  was 13 for 23 with 45 yards in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia last week and Im betting he struggles again vs top-10 team when it comes to EPA per play allowed (-0.059), including  the eighth-best Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.028) in the NFL. On the flipside, the Texans are just 20th in the league in EPA per play (-0.036) this year, and QB  C.J. Stroud looks like hes mired in a sophomore jinx. 

 that said, Im expecting the Texans to hit the gorund running in this tilt behind Joe Mixen, vs a Dallas defense that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.078) and been stepped over consistently vs opposing ground attacks. The combination of Dallas inability to score with consistency and the Texans offensive struggles and highly probable ground concentrated game plan Im betting we see large swaths of this game with very little points scored which gives credence to under selection cashing. 

key teams numbers: The Texans have allowed their opponent to run 10.0% of plays in the red zone this season -- 2nd-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed 13.0 PPG in the red zone this season -- 9th-best in NFL; the Cowboys have run 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season -- T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Home underdogs on MNF  dating to September 2021 (23 game sample size) have seen the  Under click in at  18-4-1  with a combined average of 37.3 PPG scored .

Play under

The Chargers own the No.1 defense in the NFL and a average offense. The Bengals can put points up on the board in bunches, but they could be fatigued here on a short week of rest and also start slowly after taking part in a 35-34 slugfest that they lost in heart breaking fashion.  

Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 so far during this NFL campaign. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

NFL road teams after playing  a Thursday road game  like the (Bengals) have gone under in 42 of 54 games  since 2016. 

Play under

SF 49ers are on 13-1 Over the total run as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points and their QB Brock Purdy is on 8-2 Over the total run vs. divisional opponents. Add to that HC Kyle Shanahan is 41-26 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since the 2017 campaign. 

These teams have a history of playing closely contested affairs with the Steelers having the upper had having won 7 of the L/8 meetings SU with the only Steelers loss coming by a 16-14 count, with none of those games 8 games seeing more than 33 points scored. Rinse and repeat.  NFL Road teams like the Ravens against the total - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game are 22-4 UNDER since 2020 with a combined average of 43.1 ppg scored.

Play under

NY Jets QB  Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014.

The Commanders have proved they can score this season behind duel threat  QB Daniels , but their D, remains their Achilles heal , as they their  EPA per play allowed registers at  (0.050), and their Dropback EPA per play (0.100). With that said, a up-trending Philadelphia offense that has seen their QB Jalen Hurts put 9 touchdowns on the board in his L/6 games, and has registered a 115 passer rating over that span and has only thrown one interception Im betting has a big night. The ability of Hurts to shred the Commanders secondary will open up the field for RB Barkley who Im betting runs rough shot here tonight. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 50s here today.  Philadelphia home games in the second half of the season dating back to least season have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 59.6 ppg scored.Philadelphia home games after 3 or more consecutive wins have gone over 7 straight times dating back to the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 55.2 ppg scored. Philadelphia home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.4 ppg scored. Washington games in road games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 57.2 ppg.Washington away or neutral games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored.

Play over

These teams have a recent history of playing lower scoring affairs with the L/4 meetings resulting in an average combined score of 32 ppg. Currently Miami ranks dead last in the NFL in scoring and here on the road Im betting will once again struggle to points on the board. As for the Rams they rank 18th in the NFL in scoring and that inconsistency according to my matchup projections will continue this Monday night. I know the Fins have looked better offensively in their L/2 games after not scoring more than 15 points in 5 straight trips to the gridiron, but they will have probelms scoring in this road venue. Just like Miami has increased their offensive output in their L/2 so has the Rams D also picked up its stopping efficiency ranking  third in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.095), and  have very strong stopping the run. NFL Road teams against the total - in a game involving two sub par defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 25-5 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 39-10 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 43.2 ppg.

Miami games off a loss against a division rival have gone under 6 straight times with a combined average of 35 ppg scored.

LA Rams games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season are 8-1 under L/9 with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

Play under

The last 8 meetings between these two teams have seen a combined average of 50 ppg scored. My projections once again estimate a combined score in this range and  gives credence to an over wager cashing for us today. NFC South same- division tilts  like this have  gone  7-0 OVER so far this season and that trend should continue today. The combined average of the above mentioned games were 57.8 ppg. New Orleans is in complete free fall and will now in desperation mode become more liberal in the attack schemes and just open up . It must be noted NFL teams on Sunday's  off 4 or more consecutive  SU and ATS losses have gone over 6 straight times. 

Play on the OVER 

The last time these teams faced each other a high scoring shootout took place, but now on a short week of rest and  each D feeling more comfortable  with facing  each sides offensive schemes Im betting a contrarian bet that favors the under. I know both defenses have looked porous at times but the Bengals for example have played much better as this season has progressed as was evident last week when they held  the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per play .On the flips side, QB Burrows of the Bengals, will be without key target Tee Higgins this week.Since he faced the Ravens back in week 5 Burrows has only surpassed the 250 ypg plateau once, without Higgins who played that game against the Ravens. Im on the other side, of this very public line movement, and recommend an under wager. 

NF Home favs with a line of 52 or more points have gone under 15 of the L/17 games  last 4 years! Longer term there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 plus points totals offerings,  with the Under converting at a 73% rate going  22-8  UNDER .

Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014 in TNF prime time affairs. Cincinnati versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 lr more yards/play have seen a combined average of 46.3 ppg scored spanning a 6 game sample size dating back to last season. \

Play under

n Baltimore games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 8-1 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 29 ppg scored. John Harbaugh home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games have gone under 19 of 25 times with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (Baltimore)- after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 50-20 UNDER wince 1983 for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The Colts and Vikings are off losses last time out and and will be primed to get back into the winners circle this week in this dome game. 

Some interesting stuff went down when the Colts benched QB Anthony Richardson in favor of veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson “took himself out”  of their last game -for a play in the fourth quarter because he was tired. When know Flacco can ball when given the opportunity and thats what Im betting on this week from the veteran. You have to remember Richardson has not done all that well this year so this is not a down grade situation. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290 and things will really get rolling this week in the aerial attack for the Colts. That Flacco data was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span. The Colts Flacco, owns a 102.2 passer rating this season compared with a 57.2 passer rating for Richardson. Flacco has thrown for 716 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception this season.

Flacco has averaged 7 more ppg in his starts for the Colts  than Richardson. With the pass attack upgraded that should unleash the running game behind Johnathon Taylor to also get untracked. Meanwhile, despite of having. a quality D, the Vikings are ranked  just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. Im also betting on Vikings Sam Darnold to start to roll agin after cooling down recently after a fast start. Sam Darnold will make his eighth start of the season. He has recorded a 107.2 passer rating while throwing for 1,610 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. line here is  that- these are two proficient offenses  with two inconsistent  defenses  playing in what will be a face paced affair in a dome game which Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair. 

Minnesota   home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread have gone over 7 straight times with a combined average of 54.7 ppg scored. Kevin OConnell in home games off a road loss has seen a combined average of 51 ppg go on the board L/5 opportunities.Kevin OConnell games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season are 5-0 OVER with a combined average of 56.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

Play over

Ravens own the best offense in all of football  averaging 452 ypg and  have gone over in  7 of 8 tilts averaging a combined 56.4 pp), and the worst D in the entire NFL at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting to juice up their offense behind QB Bo Nix and have registered an average of 27.8 ppg in offense over their L/4 games with all of them eclipsing the total. Everything points to this totals offering being eclipsed. 

Play over

Dak Prescott and company have had problems, moving the ball and their problems will continue today according to my projections against this SF D. Meanwhile, Im betting on the Cowboys playing a conservative game as mistakes can not be tolerated in a almost certain must win situation for the Boyz. 

NFL team against the total  (49ers)- off a home loss by 10 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-4 UNDER since the 2020 season for a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.

Mike McCarthy away or neutral games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game have gone under in 13 of L/14 with a combined average of 39 ppg.

Play on the UNDER

 Buffalo according to my projections will score 30 plus points here today according to the line offerings from the various books( lines-makers). Seattle offense exploded last week putting 34 points on Atlanta on the road.  The Seahawks  have not scored less than 20 points in a single game this season, and project to hit into the low 20s here.  both QBs have been explosive this season, and Im betting on a rinse and repeat of past incarnations of this series here today. All 10 games in the series since 1995 went Over the total. 

Buffalo has gone over in 10 of the L/11 vs NFC West. 

Play over

These two teams recently do not exhibit alot of offensive qualities , but Im betting on a break out here this week to some extent that helps us eclipse this total. The last six games of the series have gone Over the total with a combined average of 60.8 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - outrushed by their opponents by 1 or more yards/carry on the season, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 26-5 over with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

Play over

Houston 14-1 to the Under in the last 15 rematch games vs. the Colts.

SF has been lighting up the board of late, but they now go against a rested Chiefs side, with a top tier D. The Chiefs are allowing  just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  KC is scoring 23.1 PPG, allowing just 15.6 PPG while playing a conservative brand of football which Im betting will be the case again here this afternoon. 

Kansas City has played five games this season and four tilts  have not eclipsed the  had 47 point plateau. Dating back to the 2023,  47 or less points have been  scored in 15 of 18 games the Chiefs have played .

NFL road teams like the Chiefs  coming off their bye week are 31-12 UNDER L/43 opportunities   add to that KC is 10-3-1 Under the total in their last 13 post-bye week games and an edge for a under wager comes into play .  

Play under

. The  Rams are averaging just  18.8 ppg  on offense this season while the  Raiders are averaging only 18.2 ppg on the current campaign. Both sides have a boatload full of key offensive injuries and should once again battle with production problems in this battle.

Rams away or neutral games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse are 5-0 UNDER dating back to the 2023 season with a combined average score of 39.2 ppg going on the score board.

NFL team like Vegas where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 2 straight losses by 14 or more points are 37-11 UNDER since the 2015 season with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored .

NFL team like the Rams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two sub average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) are 44-15 UNDER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 41 ppg scored.

HC Sean McVay home games in October games 12-2 UNDER with a combined average of 38.6 ppg.Sean McVay home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season is a perfect 6-0 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

Play under

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

Both teams are banged up with a boat load full of injuries on offense , and their collective flow should be curtailed this Monday night giving us an edge with a under wager. Also the defenses of these sides have been well above average and more top tier D should be expected in this tilt. 

Kansas City away or neutral games after the first month of the season are a perfect 6-0 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. Kansas City away or neutral games after playing a division game are 6-0 UNDER since the 2022 season with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored. Kansas City games in games played on a grass field are 12-3 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

NFL teams like New Orleans where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-9 UNDER since the 2015 season . New Orleans have gone under in 5 straight Monday tilts  L/3 seasons with a combined average of  31.2 ppg scored. 

Andy Reid games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points are 17-4 UNDER with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.Andy Reid home games off 2 consecutive close road wins by 7 points or less. are a perfect 5-0 UNDER with a combined average of 32.8 ppg scored.

In the last 4 years. AFC home teams have gone under the total 15 of the L/18 .  

AFC Conference teams like KC have gone under in 15 of their L/18 in the last two seasons befor a  Bye Week.

Play on the under 

 The Falcons won last week,  despite of not t scoring a single offensive touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins has been less than consistent and because of this the Falcons are ranked  just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048). On the flipside, QB Baker Mayfield has been more efficient, but in this road environment will be asked to a little bit more conservative and lean on the run game.  Both these coaches are defensive minded, and with the overall state of each side coming into this tilt an under wager looks to be a viable investment option.

The total in Tampa Bay away or neutral games in the first half of the season are a perfect 8-0 UNDER L/8 dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 33 ppg scored. Tampa Bay games after a win by 10 or more points. which was the case last time out, has seen 8 of 9 games stay under the total with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored . Tampa Bay games after a 2 game home stand are 6-0 under dating back to the 2022 season with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored.

Atlanta has gone under 7 straight times on Thursdays.

Play on the under

The Packers ran the ball alot last time out and Im betting they will lean on their run game again because the banged up QB Jordan Love maybe less than 100% if he plays and if a backup takes to the filed - which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Game 4 division home favorites  like the Packers  have gone UNDER  15 of the L/16 times  in the last seven years for a 94% conversion rate. 

The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL Defensive Points per Game allowed  at( 10) The Vikings have pressured opposing passers at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season (38.6%) while recording a sack on 11.0% of dropbacks (second highest)

.Note: The last time the Vikings went into Lambeau Field was October of last year. They easily won the game 24-10 shutting down Love and the Packer offense. It was a grinding affair, and Im expecting a repeat type lower scoring game . 

Minnesota games in the first half of the season are 9-1 UNDER with a combined average of 41 ppg scored dating back to last season.

NFL team like Minny where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 116-61 UNDER dating back to the 1983 season .

Play under

New York took out  the Broncos 31-21 in Week 5 last season, and Im betting on a similar type combined score here this Sunday . 

The Jets QB Rodgers was in top form vs  New England last time out , completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and projects to  have similar numbers in this matchup vs a Broncos D due for negative regression  . On the flipside, the Broncos  QB Bo Nix, the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft, had 216 yards on 25-for-36 passing to go along with 47 rushing yards and a TD against Tampa Bay for his first career victory. He also projects to have a strong effort .  Note:

NFL road underdogs playing off a road pup victory  the previous week like the Broncos have gone over 16 of the L/19 times.

Despite of both sides being defensively efficient, Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the total based on QB play and offensive up-trending data. 

These teams have combined for an average of 53.5 ppg at Metlife Stadium in their L/4 meetings in this venue.

NFL team like the Jets where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - with a good offense - averaging 5.4 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 31-8 OVER since the 2020 season with a combined average of 48.6 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 54-19 OVER L/51 seasons with a combined average of 48.2 ppg scored.

Play over 

QB Jayden Daniels is a decent looking yiung QB, but has hard problems getting the ball into end  zone . It must be noted that rookie QBS  have not been offensively prdiceint in  early-season NFL play  that has been evident by a 26 of 35 games staying  Under the total in weeks 1-3 . Im betting Danilels issues with TD proficiency continue for now against what will be a hyped uo Cincinnati group that will be looking to play a complete game. It must be noted that  Cincy is  5-2-1 Under  L/ 8  under the Monday night lights while , scoring just 17.6 PPG.  Also the under is a perfect 5-0 UNDER in Zac Taylor games against NFC East division opponents with an average of just 37 ppg scored.

 NFL team against the total - off a road loss like the Bengals , when playing on Monday night are 30-7 UNDER since 2020 with average combined score clicking in at 39.1 ppg . NFL team like Bengals where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 37-8 UNDER since 2015 with a combined average of 43 ppg scored .

Play under

Andy Dalton will take over for Bryce Young at QB this week, will Im betting give the Panthers some offensive cohesiveness. Unfortunately, nothing can be done for Carolinas Swiss Cheese D, allowing 36.6 ppg .The Raiders offense is projected by me to light the Panthers secondary up like a Christmas Tree. This combination of factors bodes well for a combined score that eclipses this total. Note: NFL road underdogs of 13 or less points like the Panthers . that scored  3 or less points playing as hosts in  their previous game  have gone OVER in 11 straight opportunities dating back 7 seasons. 

Play over

These two teams the Jets and Pats  have  stayed under the total in their L/ 4 head to head matchups with an average combined score of 24.3 combined ppg going on the board. When considering this game takes place on a Thursday night-it must be noted that  NFL games on that night  have stayed under the total 15 of the L/17 times with a 41 point or less Totals offering from the books.  Finally these teams are both playing .500 ball this season, which sets up well for a lower scoring affair, with  a line of 44 kor less - In tilts featuring evenly matched records they  have failed to eclipse the total 13 of the L/15 times ( 44 pts or less). Ive seen nothing from positive from these offenses that will turn me off this being a lower scoring snooze feast affair. Note:, The Pats own  a Net EPA of +0.09 and NY Jets  have recorded  a Net EPA of -0.01-New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the first two week of this season and on the flipside QB Aaron rodgers is still not 100% after repairing his achilles and will also be letting the run game develop around him as he gets more comfortable in the pocket.  With that said, Im betting a grinding affair that stays on the low side of the number.

New England games off a non-conference game.- have gone under 5 straight times with a combined average of 27 ppg scored.

Robert Saleh away or neutral games in September games is 5-0 UNDER with ana verage of 33.2 ppg scored.

Play under 

For much of their first game of the season vs Tennessee the Bears offense looked extremely inconsistent, and despite of winning they looked like their offensive production was a mirage. Here against a stacked Texans D, Im betting they will have issues getting scores . On the flipside, the  Texans D  [vs OPP] After SU win have gone under 8 of the L/10 times.   Texans Against limited mistake offenses averaging less than 1.5 turnovers per game have gone under in 11 of the L/14 . Meanwhile, Against decent-scoring teams like Houston averaging 24 PPG or more the Bears have gone under 11 of the L/15 games. Bears  [vs OPP] After a conference SU win are 36-21-2 UNDER. 

Chicago  in game 2 s are 1-6 O/U L/7 seasons with a combined average of  (36.4 ppg scored).  Texans have gone over in 3 of their L/4 vs the Bears with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored in those 4 games.

NFL Road teams like Chciago against the total - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. are 29-4 UNDER L/4 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with a combined average of 37.2 ppg scored.

System applies to: Chicago.Play under

Derek Carr was extremely efficient in his opening game this season with New Orleans as he posted a 142.5 QB rating while converting on 19 of 23 passes with the Saints putting 47 points on the board in a big DD win.Meanwhile QB Prescott and company are offensively  loaded and proved it in a DD road win vs Cleveland and project to have success here again today in Dallas where they home games saw a combined average of 55.2 ppg go on the board in the 2023 campaign Im betting on more offensive fireworks again in a rinse and repeat situation. NFL Game 10 or less when  both teams are off an ATS win margin of +14 or more pts have gone a perfect 7-0 OVER. Dallas L/23 games played on turf have seen a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. The Cowboys last 12 home games with a line of 52 or less have seen the total eclipse 11 of those times. Also All non-division underdogs  like the Saints off a victory  of 28 or more points  have seen the total go over in 12 of their L/13 opportunities dating back 12 seasons. 

Play over

Im expecting this to be a hotly contested game with less offensive fireworks than the linesmkaers expect.  The lat three meetings here in South Florida between these teams has seen a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Forecast for tonight's tilt  is hot and humid with temps around 80 and humidity close to 100%  I expect this game to start to slow down a great deal as the game progresses because of the suffocating heat  and possible rain which will aid in a combined score that stays on the low side of the number.   Miami 7-2-1 Under in the last 10 and after watching them struggle to score last week vs Jacksonville look for this combined score to fall short of the offered number. 

Teams like Miami  that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under for a 65% conversion rate  in Week 2 since 2005  .

Miami has gone under in 6 of 8 division home games as favorite of 10 points or less. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L6 division road games.

Play under

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels starts today vs the Commanders and Im betting it will take time for him to acclimate to the NFL game. But Im also betting on Tampa Bay having issues moving the ball and for their production to be muted. Last season TB saw an average of 34.7 ppg scored on their own home field and Im projecting another combined score in that range here today. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home. :Dating back  more than two seasons , NFC South Division sides like Tampa Bay when going against a    NFC East Division side like Washington have gone UNDER in 15 of 17 matchups. 

Play under

Broncos rookie  QB Bo Nix Im betting takes time to acclimate to the NFL game, and struggles here out of the gate with downfield consistency which will directly affect this combined score. 

These two teams have gone UNDER in the last three matchups , with an average of only 39.7 combined PPG going on the scoreboard.

The Broncos have recorded 5 straight unders in the  L/5 seasons in game 1 , with an average of only 35.2 combined PPG going on the scoreboard. 

The Seahawks have gone  UNDER  in their L/3  openers with a combined    average of 40 combined ppg going on the scoreboard.

Also non division  matchup  in the first game of the season. have gone under 26 of the L/35 times dating back 11 seasons. 

Denver is 91-57 UNDER the total since 2015 for a 62% conversion rate for low bettors.

Play under

The Cards enters this game  having gone under in 16 of their L/20   and 9 of their L/10 when playing on the road versus  Eastern Division opponents . Meanwhile the home side  Bills have gone  under in 9 of their L/11 season openers  In their last including 3 straight openers with a  a combined  average of  39.3 ppg scored. I know QB Kyle Murray and QB Josh Allen gets the over juices flowing with bettors but Im projecting on a lower scoring affair here out of the gate for both sides. Note: Non conference tilts during the first month of the season have failed to eclipse the total in 16 of the 18 games dating back 3 seasons.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home.The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road.

Play under 

We have a QB duel ready to manifest itself this week in Brazil, as Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts go head to head in a Friday night Football game.  My projections estimate the Eagles will score 28 or more points while the Packers score 23 or more giving us a FG edge on this total making an over bet a viable option. 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road. The Packers are 5-0 OVER vs NFC East L2 seasons with a combined average of  54.2 ppg scored. 

Eagles are 4-1 OVER in  Game 1 of the season.

Play over

Im betting that the KC Chiefs d, continues to be their catalyst going forward even though the offense has been upgraded in the off season. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Jackson is still not consistent enough with his passing game, and his legs and the Ravesn running back core will remain their modus operandi which gives credence to a grinding game that stays on the low side of the number. 

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road.

 Primetime games are 160-107  UNDER  with a 15% ROI since 2019 for a 60% conversion rate  .

Play under

.My projections for this Super Bowl game total come in at the low to mid 50s. Im estimating both teams eclipse the 24 point plateau. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.6 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 9-2 OVER in road games when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.

Both these teams have solid defenses but both sides can make great defenses look average and thats what Im betting on in this big time tilt.

Shanahan is 9-2 OVER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 54 ppg going on the board.

Reid is 10-1 OVER  in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 63.3 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 11-3 OVER )in road games vs. sub average passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Mahomes and company are finally clicking and looking smooth on offense, and Lamar Jackson and his offensive unit have been smooth and hard to stop all season long. I know both these Ds, are staunch, but in the end it will be QB play and offenses that make the difference here today. Reid  in his L/18 road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg scored. Harbaugh in his L/70 games  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg.

My own projections make this total closer to the 47 to 48 point threshold giving us a one possession edge on the number. 

KANSAS CITY is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 53.9 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (14-18 PPG), after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games 36-12 OVER dating back to the 1983 season 

Five of the last six games in this series have eclipsed the total. 

Play over

I know rookie QB CJ Stroud has been explosive offensively this season , and last week highlighted that in a 45 point out put  win vs Cleveland. However, I now expect regression from the young QB as he  goes against a well rested staunch ball hawking Baltimore D, that has allowed an average of 16.5 ppg this season. On the flip-side, I expect the Ravens offense to to look to ground down the Texans with their run game behind the legs of QB LaMar Jackson and their solid rush attack. These teams met in Week 1 and Baltimore won 25-9 and Im expecting similar  points output. 

HOUSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-3 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992 with a combined average 40.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34 ppg scored. 

The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 21 games (-8.40 Units / -36% ROI)

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 32.6 ppg scored. Also each of the Ravens past 10 games played in January at home have gone under the points totals.

Play on the UNDER

My projections estimate a a score in the high 30s here today giving us at least a FG advantage on this offered number from the books.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home. 

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 18-7 UNDER   against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg going on the board. Bowles in his L/6  home games off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of TAMPA BAY has seen a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 21 games (-6.30 Units / -27% ROI)

The Philadelphia Eagles have only hit the Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 away games (-6.70 Units / -76% ROI) 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 24-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

The Browns after losing QB Deshaun Watson and running back Nick Chubb have now transitioned to a more wide open type of offensive  side behind Joe Flacco.  who has accumulated 1,616 yards passing, 13 TDs and eight picks in 5 games. Note: CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER   in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 53.3 ppg scored. Cleveland has also gone over in all 8 of its road games this season with a combined average score of 54 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile, the Texans behind QB Stroud have a man under center that has thrown for the  third-most yards  by a NFL rookie (4,108) while connecting for 23 touchdown passes against just five interceptions.  Im betting he does enough damage today to help us get this over bet into the plus side of our bankrolls. Cleveland has allowed an average 29.6 ppg on the road this season.

When these teams played in December the combined for a 58 points. 

Play over 

The L/3 meetings in this series between Seahawks and the Cards have seen a combined average 63.6 combined PPG.

ARIZONA has gone OVER  in all 7 of their home games with a combined average of - 55.3 PPG scored. ARIZONA is 11-3 OVER   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored. Arizona has gone over three straight games with a combined average of 61 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Seattle  allowed a sub par  Pittsburgh offense to put 30 points on the board  and this week QB Murray and company should come close to duplicating that out put in a game that Im betting goes over the total. 

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona.

Play over

This is a good opportunity here for a over bet at this time of the year in a indoor stadium.  both these teams are in the play off picture and Im betting on some aggressive football today. When the colts played the Texans earlier this season the game easily eclipsed the number, and a rinse and repeat situation seems imminent. The Colts have gone over in 7 of 8 home games this season with a combined average of 52.3 ppg scored. Last week the Texans only allowed 3 points to a pedestrian Tennessee offense, but it must be noted that NFL away sides  have gone  over 14 of the L/16  times when off a division home victory where they allowed  3 or less points , when the Total is  48 or less points like this game presently is. Also INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scoredI. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER   vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored.

Play over

Going over in a indoor game at this time year is alot more optimal a bet than an under in a out doors game. With this game going in a dome tonight, Im betting on alot more offensive fireworks than the lines-makers might expect. Both sides recently have been involved in higher scoring affairs, with the Packers going over in 5 straight games, combing for 52 ppg while Minnesota has gone over in two straight with a combined average of 52.5 ppg scored. I know this is essentially a play off elimination game with loser not going to the post season, but instead of a chess match these sides are more suited to playing an aggressive take no prisoners type of affair which translates into a higher scoring game. 

GREEN BAY is 22-4 OVER in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 53.7 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 48 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51.2 ppg scored ( GB beat Carolina 33-10 last week)

MINNESOTA is 17-5 OVER   vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.1 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.2 ppg scored. ( Vikings lost to Lions last week 30-24)

 NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in the second half of the season are 42-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over 

We two very explosive offenses ready to go head tonight in San Francisco as the Ravens visit the 49ers in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. My projections  estimate both sides will put up 21 plus points. Note:

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 64.3 ppg scored.BALTIMORE is 16-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.4 ppg scored in those tilts. San Francisco  popped 45 points on the score board last week  in their road victory vs the Cards  - which brings in to play this Top tier trend- NFL home teams who scored 45 or more points in an away game  the previous week have gone over 9 straight times. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 OVER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 48.4 ppg scored.

Harbaugh is 18-9 OVER  as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 47.1 ppg scored.

NFC home chalk  of 7 points or less like the 49ers on Mondays  have gone OVER  9 of the L/10 times dating back 9 seasons  vs  AFC opposition like the Ravens. 

Play over

CLEVELAND is 6-0 OVER in road games this season with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored. This Browns  team seems to play alot more wide open on the road, and are transitioning to pass first attack with Joe Flacco under center.  Today with talented  Texas QB Stroud back in the mix Im betting they will have to open up their offense, as Im betting Stroud and company do some offensive damage. Stefanski is 8-1 OVER  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of CLEVELAND.

Play over

These teams are explosive offensive sides with Dallas averaging 33.2 ppg while Philadelphia is averaging 27.4 ppg. Also recent meetings between these sides have see the manifestation of high scoring affairs, with an average 60.2 ppg scored in the L/6 overall meetings with all 6 going over the total.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER \n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 62.8 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 63.2 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 OVER  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being. aback and forth affair that eclipses the total. 

Play on the over 

These teams have seen alot of low scoring games this season, thanks in part to a lack of fluid offense and strong up-trending defenses. With back up QBs expected to start today another low scoring event is my bet. 

 The  Raiders have gone under in 9 of 12 tilts this season and have gone under in 5 of 6 at home, averaging a just  36.8 combined PPG in the process . Meanwhile the Vikings have also gone 9-3 under  and when they are favored have stayed under in all 6 as chalk with a combined average of   35.1 ppg getting scored.

Teams like the Raiders and the Vikings both off a bye week dating back 3 season have seen , 15 of the L/17 stay under  the offered total for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 32-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored.

Play under

We have a interesting set up from a recent trends historical data base of late from tonights tilt featuring the Green Bay Packers vs the KC Chiefs.  Note: Sunday and Monday night tilts have gone under in 23 of 26 games this season and have cashed to the under in  15 straight games . In the last two seasons the under has been a cash cow grabbing the dough from the books  in 32  of the  35 opportunities.

Also the under has cashed  in 24 of the 29 games for a 83% conversion rate with   NFL sides like Green Bay  off back-to-back underdog victories  . 

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on a grass field this season with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored..

KC previous to their last game vs Vegas in a 31-17 win had done under 6 straight times. 

Im bucking these types of trends and instead will ride with the tide.

Play under

Cleveland has played low scoring games at home this season, but have gone over the total in all 5 of their road tilts with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Last week Cleveland played in Denver, and that brings into play a situation where non division road  teams that get a whiff of fresh breathable air after coming from the Mile Hight city are 9-0-1 over dating back 4 seasons. Im betting a Cleveland team that has not done much scoring here of late  to feel rejuvenated and come out here swinging  and put more points on the board than the lines-makers expect.  Meanwhile the  Rams are a side that is finally getting their offense in gear off scoring 37 points last time out will primed to keep that train going. McVay is 12-4 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored.

Play over

Hey I know the Washington D has looked atrocious of late , but the coaching staff have really been focusing on  slowing down their game  and for a more  focused concerted effort on being  more physical and disciplined on defense. Yes, I also know how explosive Miami has been, but with this being their 2nd straight away game a little bit of regression must be expected from this road weary group, playing a in division matchup. Only one of the Fins last 7 games has eclisped this totals offering and Im betting on another one staying under the number. the L/3 meetings here in Washington between these sides has stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored. Rivera is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or better  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 36 ppg .Rivera is 11-1 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 26-9 UNDER L/35 against NFC East division opponents with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

When you see a Detroit Lions game you want almost automatically look for reasons to bet the over, but this is not one of those games here in New Orleans vs the inept offense of the Saints that are averaging  just 18.3 ppg at home this season. Note  When team from the  NFC   are non-division Conference road favorites the total has failed to be eclipsed 9 of the L/10 times. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 28 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 UNDER  in December games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 30.5 ppg scored. 

Allen is 9-1 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored.

Campbell is 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (DETROIT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Prime time games have been fairly low scoring this season with 26 of 34 games failing to eclipse the offered totals number. The Ravens are off playing a Thursday night game last week, and this sets in play a positive under trend as  NFL away sides  off a Thursday nighter as hosts  have  eclipsed the total only 5 of 28 times  L/3 seasons.  Another strong trend associated with this tilt shows AFC  teams like Baltimore with bye week up next  have gone under in their L/13 opportunities. Also  NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 6-27 UNDER  L/10 seasons under for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.2 ppg. Harbaugh is 17-4 UNDER ( after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS are 23-7 UNDER L/30  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 32-16 UNDER L/48 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 7-0 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

 The Chiefs are off a MNF defeat and Im betting will be primed to play a top tier brand of D, here against Vegas that will help keep this tilt under the offered totals number. NFL favorites off a Monday nighter  home loss   have gone a under in 8 straight games  in the last three seasons. Note: Vegas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 overall.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this seasons with a combined average of  38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

LAS VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER in dome games this season with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.LAS VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on turf this season with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 71-37 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Both the Eagles and the Bills have viable offenses averaging more than 26 ppg in out put. BUFFALO is the underdog here which is important considering they have gone 8-0 OVER  as underdogs of +2 or more points in the last four seasons with a combined average of 67.5 ppl scored. On the flip side Sunday NFC Conference home favorites of  3 pts or more like the  Eagles against  AFC Conference opponents like the Bills have eclipsed the Total 9 of the L/10 times. Considering the Eagles home games have seen a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored it will be an easy decision here to go with an over wagering what my projections estimate to be a score that hits in the low 50s. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppl scored. My projections also estimate both sides will score at least 20 or more points which is important as the Eagles are 12-1 OVER L/13 when that happens with the combined score clicking in at 61.8 ppg. 

Play over

I know both offenses are expected to have a low output production today, but even with the Steelers offensive woes and the Bengals QB precarious situation, my projections still estimate a score in the high 30s which gives close to a FG edge on this offered number. Note: PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER   versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER L/30 seasons with the combined average score of 48 ppg scored.

Play over

Dallas /Washington games have seen some big total scores go on the board here in Dallas in the past with each combined score easily eclipsing this offering and Im betting nothing changes here today. The combined average score of those tilts rings in at 60.7 ppg. The Commanders own the worst scoring D in the NFL and the Boyz will do damage. But Im also betting the Commanders will also do their share of scoring in what Im betting will be a more back and forth tilt than the linebackers expect. Note: DALLAS: 10-0vOVER  as division  home chalk of  3 points or more and WASHINGTON: 6-0 OVER as division  road dogs of  3 pts or more.  

Play over

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Washington ranks  31 st allowing  27.4 ppg and the NY Giants are ranked 29th allowing  26.6 ppg. Washington has on occasion shown some offensive pop and Im betting they do damage this week, vs a shell shocked group of Giants, while the pedestrian offense of the giants finally gets a defense they can handle. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY GIANTS) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points are 45-19 OVER L/30 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

We know the Niners can score but after three straight losses you can bet the team will rest their prospects on a big time effort from a rested D, off a bye week. It must be noted NFL road chalk   having suffered 3 or more consecutive  losses  have gone under 12 of the L/13 times darting back to the 2019 season. The Jags despite of a 5 game win streak Im betting will find the offensive sledding tough today but I have enough respect in the Jags D, that SF most likely will also not have any obscene production keeping this combined score from eclipsing this number. 

 NFC road favorites of  3 points or more like the 49ers  have gone  under  in  16 of the L/17 times vs AFC opposition like the Jags , when the offered  Total  is 47  or less . When both  teams  are off their Bye Week like these two side are the under is  0-7 when the totals offering is  46 points or less. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 63-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NF Lteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

All three games played here between these sides have stayed under the total. 

Play under

The Cardinals have a very hard time moving the ball behind a clunky offense. as is evident by averaging just 18.1 ppg in production and have scored 9 and 10 points respectively in their L/2 games.Key Trend:  NFC Conference teams who scored 10  pts  or less in each of their last two games  have gone  under 9 straight times. 

. Thats not a good omen against a Baltimore side that is allowing just 13.9 ppg this season on D (tops in the NFL). On the flipisde, the Ravens offense has been pedestrian this season to say the least , averaging just 22.3 ppg in road tilts. I know Arizonas D, has been highly inconsistent this season, probably because of the amount of time they spend on the field, but it must be noted that BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  vs.sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. The Ravens exhibit  is a grinding style of play that eats up alot of clock time and Im betting nothing changes today.

BALTIMORE is also 9-0 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.1 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 25.2 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 13-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLbteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 69-26 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

 After being upset last time out by Cleveland in a very physical game the 49ers are banged up with key offensive components , RB Christian McCaffrey at less than 100% with an oblique injury and WR Deebo Samuels also questionable.With that said,  the offense maybe more muted than usual . The good news for SF is they own the leagues best D, allowing just 14.5 ppg and Im sure they will give the inconsistent Vikings offense all they can handle. Advantage to the under.

Monday Night NFL Primetime tilts have  seen 7 of 8 games stay under the Total this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Monday Night games that have the road side as chalk have gone under 17 of the L/18 times the L/3 seasons. 

Minnesota has only eclipsed the total one time in 6 games this season. Vikings have gone under in their L/4 MNF games.

SF has gone under in 5 of their L/6 back to back road games. Five of the L/seven meetings in this series have stayed on the offered total.

NFL  team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 22-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.6 ppg scored.

Play under

The Totals  line  (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey.   

It must be noted that  New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have  seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a  combined  average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. 

Allen  in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. 

 NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points   have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen  Jacksonville go under  in their L/4  dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints  have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER   after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said.

"We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well."

DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. 
DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.McCarthy is 10-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Dallas has gone under in 11 of their L/12 back to back road games.

Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. 

Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Im betting Carolinas game plan is  to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under 

NFL non-division home favorites of  8 or more points  like Miami is here today  have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total  when the offered number is  45 or more points.  

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable  trends

Reid is 13-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more  yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

Payton is 12-3 UNDER  when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats    evident by  quarterback Trevor Lawrences  one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game  and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. 

Jacksonville  is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

  Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM   have gone a  perfect 6-0 UNDER  in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard.

Play on the under

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season  allowing just  17.2 ppg  and are off holding the Steelers to  7 points and a total of  239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to  Seattle in week 1 action and  slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by  allowing just  180 total yards and  only 13 points. 

Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2  sides  playing in the their 2nd  of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers  have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away  sides like SF,  have  gone under 13 of their L/14  road  games  after allowing 7  pts or less  on the road in their  previous  game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.

Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The Jets  and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings  with   37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. 

Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. 

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over  4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER  in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB  Jeff Goff  who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is  8-0  L/8 OVER  Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER  L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points  in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight.

Play over. 

Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will  stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily  be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl. 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20  after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games  Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

 Play UNDER

I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship  play off game.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.  

 KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. 

Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER  L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible.  MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER   in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games

BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.

Play UNDER 

 These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks  have played scorched earth all out  offensive slugfests in recent meetings going  5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined  average score  of 62.6  ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the  2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively  (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER  when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.  

Play on the OVER 

My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. 

Play on the over 

Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th  of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just  8-1 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group,  as as a result of this are  9-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs  have gone under in their following game in  all 6 times this has happened this season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3  or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play UNDER

This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries  are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th.

Game 13 teams like the Rams  with a win %   of .250 or less, when the  Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in   21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  33.8 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. 

Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. 

Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts,   

NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

 BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. 

New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager.  They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production  last week vs the  Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg.

Play UNDER

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER  in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall.

DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER