After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week,  the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable  ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected.  KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER  when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992  with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NFL  team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons .

My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. 

Washington has gone under in 8 of their L10 since the first month of the season, with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

Pederson is 12-1 UNDER in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.  Pederson is 13-0 UNDER  in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 39.1 ppg going on the board.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored.

NFL home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB  Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores.  Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate.

Play OVER

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Atlanta is missing  two key starters for this tilt against KC  on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. 

TLANTA is 7-0 UNDER  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 26-10 UNDER L/36 in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 39.2 ppg. KANSAS CITY is 13-3 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 point with a combined average score of 34.2 ppg scored.

NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 27-5 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

  The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Hawaiis offense has not been as explosive as it has been in recent seasons, and that was evident in their 3 road games where they averaged 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense has not looked as bad as recent incarnations, and the program under Graham  now looks different  rankingn in the top 30 for Success Rate. This season Hawaii has had success via their run game, as the  rushing attack is top-10 in the nation in explosiveness while maintaining a Line Yards rank of 26th. Considering their current form and the way the Warriors play, Im expecting them to look to grind this clock down with a run heavy attack, and remain conservative in their game plan vs a Houston side that has run hot and cold on offense all season long. Note: Houstons HC Holgorsen is 9-1 UNDER in December games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 55 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Tigers took a backward step this season from an offensive perspective and  ended the regular season going under the total in three straight tilts against FBS opposition while overall ranking of 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards . The Tiger just cant run the ball well thus making them easy to read. That will once again be the case vs a staunch Florida Atlantic D, that allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games before a lackluster effort in their final game of the season vs Southern Miss, but that was because of their run D, something Mempjhis will not be able to exploit in the same way . Meanwhile, on the flipside the Owls offense has struggled all season long ranking  115th on offensive standard downs Success Rate. Considering both sides of offensive discrepancies and than adding in Florida Atlantic's top tier stopping unit, has me recommending we take the under. 

 CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA ATLANTIC/ MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Despite the Green Wave overall good defensive numbers they have had issues against top tier passing sides,  as is evident by  defending pass explosiveness, ranking  124th in the nation. Meanwhile, Nevada QB Carson Strong finished the season as one of the  top passers in the  nation, ranking sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. So Im betting the Wolfpack have some cohesiveness through the air today, and will look downfield quite alot knowing how tough the Green Wave run defense can be. On the flipside one again, Tulane does like to run the ball alot that can grind down the clock, but new New offensive coordinator Chip Long formerly with Notre Dame after having two week to prepare for thsi tilt, will be ready to throw some new stuff into the mix and Im betting Nevada wont be able to deal with it all that well. This is not a conference game, and will be played alot less tightly than those type of affairs thats why I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

CFBeams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NEVADA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390-440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-14 OVER l/28 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group.

The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. 

Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER

The Mean Green own  one of the fastest offenses of all FBS ranking second in tempo and this team takes a no prisoners approach to moving the chains through the air. I know App State owns a tremendous secondary, but I still expect N.Texas to do a degree of damage while their own D, which ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. App State has not always had alot of flow on offense this season, but the offensive line has still  produced a top-30 ranking in Line Yards and Power Success Rate and Im betting they have a great deal of success today in what promises to see a combined score that eclipses the total. 

Play OVER 

The Bears are 0-9 UNDER L/9 coming off an upset win where they scored at least 24 points.
The Bears are 0-10 UNDER L/10  off a game as a dog where they covered.
Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games as a road underdog.Under is 12-4 in Bears last 16 games in December.Under is 20-8 in Bears last 28 games as an underdog.

Under is 11-4 in Vikings last 15 games in December.

Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

NFL Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-3 UNDER L/ 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate fro bettors with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 24-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Chic/Minn under 

Buffalo is off a huge win vs Pittsburgh last time out, and will be in an emotional letdown spot here this week, and could easily find themselves starting slowly on offence  which will directly effect the total combined score here in this tilt vs a Denver side that almost always struggles on offense averaging just 15.7 ppg at home this season.

The Broncos are 0-10-1 UNDER coming of a road game where they threw for at least 250 yards.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-3 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-1 UNDER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Play Under - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more) playing a team with a losing record are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

NFL Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 424-290 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 60% conversion rate.

Tonight games is supposed to be a windy affair with gusts of 20 mph and average winds clicking in at 14-17 mpg. With that said, Im betting on both sides reverting to run heavy ground games, and short passes which will eat alot of clock time and help keep this score to the low side of the total. 

Note: Divisional under  reg/playoffs since with a total of between 44.5 to 60 since 2005 are 204-124-4 UNDER for a 62% conversion rate. 

CLEVELAND is 22-10 UNDER L/34 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

BALTIMORE is 12-3 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

BALTIMORE is 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 104-53 L/37 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Pittsburghs offense has stalled in its last two games in recent weeks, but Im betting Tomlin and company will be more aggressive this week and get back to the 24 to 37 point output consistency they managed previous to those tilts. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really started to roll , scoring 44, 30,27, 34 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron and more than capable of piercing the Steelers top tier defence. The above combination will see this tilt eclipse the total. My projections estimate both sides will score 20+ points. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board. 

BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Detroit plays wide open football at  home in the dome the past two years. The Lions are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 at home. 

DETROIT is 10-0 OVER L/10 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of  60.3 ppg scored. 

The Packers are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 on the road coming off a game where they allowed less than 310 total yards. 

Play OVER

Im betting the Titans explosive offense will tee off on a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Meanwhile, on the flipside  Tennesse  ranks in the  bottom five in DVOA and could easily get pierced by a Jacksonville side  that has scored 25 or more points in  4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. These teams have seen 60 plus points go on the board in recent meetings. Note:  Titans QB Tannehill has seen 21 of his L/25 games go over the set total in a regular season game. The Titans are 11-0 OVER L/11   facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 75 yards against last meeting. TENNESSEE is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with an average of 57 ppg going on the board in those gamesTENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER

We have a very low total attached to this game but rightly so. Since 2005, games between two of the three service academy teams have gone 36-9-1 to the under. And the Army-Navy matchup, specifically, has  gone under 14 of the L/15 times. Rinse and repeat in another grinding affair between these two rivals. 

Play UNDER

My projections estimate this total to be closer to 48 which gives us alot of value here based on that projection. I perception here by the lines-makers and much of the public is that this will be a field position chess match, but I do not see it that way. Last week , the Pats put 45 points on the board, and look ready to surge offensively behind Cam Newton, while the Rams bounced off a loss in their previous week to put 38 points on the board in a win. I know both sides have shown under the total tendencies, and New Englands overall offensive numbers might look like smoke and mirrors, but Im expecting enough fire works based on my models to recommend  we take the over. This game is all about flow, and both come in here surging. Note: NFL  home favorites like the Rams  of 3+ points on artificial surface are 29-0 OVER when they are off a double-digit vicotry as a  favorite and they are going against a side   that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game as visitors with a combined average of 55.4 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER

HC Reid of KC likes to play teams he deems as lower tier sides alot more conservatively than might be expected. I believe Reid trys not to exert to much energy against inferior opponents especially if his team has bigger goals ahead like this version of the team he resides over which will usually translate into the positive of  less injuries. This type of game plan will Im betting see a lower combined score than the linesmkaers are expecting. 

Reid is 12-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. Reid is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average combined score clicking in at 40.1 ppg. Reid is 16-4 UNDER  in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. 

The Chiefs are 0-9 UNDER L/9  as a home favorite of more than a TD when the line is more than seven points lower than last game.

The Broncos are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they failed to cover.  Broncos have gone under in their L/7 division road games. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 26-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

The Eagles won 34-27 at Green Bay last year, which marked the Packers' only home loss and Im expecting more surprising action from a Philadelphia side that is still looking for a ;possible play off appearance. My projections estimate a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. 

The Packers are 14-0-2 OVER L/18 coming off a home game and playing a team below .535 on the season. Green Bay  is 11-1 OVER L/12  after division home game. GREEN BAY is 21-8 OVER ( versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored.

Over is 30-14 in Eagles last 44 road games. Philadelphia 7-0 OVER L/7 away vs NFC North. 

Play OVER

After losing for the 2nd straight time and being embarrassed by a 43-6 count last time out, I expect the Raiders to get back to basics and run the ball more consistently while playing a conservative game and a much better brand of defense. Today against a jets steam that struggles with offensive consistency as was evident by a 3 point output last week, Im betting we see a game that stays on the low side of the number this week. 

LAS VEGAS is 16-6 UNDER (L/22  in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game with a combined average score of 44.1 ppg. 

 NFL  team against the total (LAS VEGAS) - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER

The Boilermakers have one of the most dynamic  wide receiver duos in all of college football with Rondale Moore and David Bell and Im betting these two stars help put a boatload full of points on the board vs a Nebraska D, that is allowing an average of 32.6 ppg. Meanwhile, here on the road Im also betting Nebraska behind a offence that put 30 points on the board vs Penn State to open up here and reciprocate with some fireworks of their own.HC Brohm is 16-3 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.2 ppg scored .Brohm is 30-12 OVER   when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a. combined average of  with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 8-1 OVER   as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of PURDUE with a combined average of 63.9 ppg.

Play OVER 

My projections estimate that Air force will put 35+ points on the board vs a Utah State D, that has allowed an average of of 35.2 ppg . Note: UTAH ST is 20-7 L/27  OVER when they allow 35 to 41 points with the combined average score of 58.9 ppg scored.Meanwhile, Utah finally started to open up their offense , and get it flowing last time out putting 41 points on the board, and Im betting they do enough damage here to get this combined score over the total. 

AIR FORCE is 15-4 OVER L/19 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return with a combined average of 65.1 ppg. AIR FORCE is 10-2 OVER in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season with a combined average of 57.2 ppg going on the board.Calhoun is 31-17 OVER  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of AIR FORCE with a combined average of 59.8 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UTAH ST) - with a poor rushing D - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 36-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER 

Skip Holtz and LA Tech have not played since Halloween and Im betting his offence will be rusty and take time to get into a flow here. Meanwhile, North Texas despite of showing some defensive deficiencies this season, will according to my projections hold down the fort to an extent, and help keep this tilt on the low side of the slightly bloated number.  Also look for The Mean Green to pound the ball on the ground against a Tech side that has had problems stopping the run whihc will eat clock time in a hurry. Note: Holtz is 10-1 UNDER  in road games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg going on the board. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.9 ppg scored. 

NORTH TEXAS is 9-0 UNDER  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 56.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (North Texas/ LOUISIANA TECH) - when playing on a Thursday are 50-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

These teams offenses do not run a very high speeds. Seattle is ranked in the middle of league in pace with the Eagles offense ranks 25th in pace. Both these offensive lines rank 31st and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which will Im betting makes for some stalled plays and adjusted yards that see backward movement. Philadelphia offense overall rank 30th overall and 30th in passing offense and Im betting their lack of explosiveness will also hamper the combined points basket here. Meanwhile, the Eagles D, continues to improve, and deserves respect here against Wilson and company.  On the flips side I know the caveat here is the Seahawks Defense, but it is uptrending in my charts, and now that they are getting heal-their could easily continue to improve. With Seahawks Carroll recently deciding to revert back to a more run heavy attack, Im projecting a more grinding game than the lines-makers might expect. 

Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in November.T

he Eagles are 0-15 UNDER L/15 at home facing a team allowing more than 21 points per game with a combined average of 35.13 ppg going on the board with none of the 15 games going over this total. 

Play UNDER

The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line with injuries to A.Q. Shipley, Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted as they struggle to protect senior QB Tom Brady. Meanwhile, on the flipside as explosive as KC can be Im also betting they will be in tough here today vs an impressive Bucs defensive front.

Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NFL away teams like  like the Chiefs that won more than ten games the previous regular season and are not on a four-plus game losing streak are 0-23 UNDER L/23 when they are off a away tilt,  and have an average turnover margin of more than one-half, and they are now going against a side that has averaged more than 36.5 passes per game season to date.

Play on the UNDER 

Im betting on TCU pounding the ball on the ground quite a bit today and eating up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, the flip-side, TCU D Im betting makes life miserable for a Kansas  offense that averages just 15.1 ppg to be stymied in a tilt that Im betting stays on the low side of this total. TCU is 0-12 UNDER L/12  as a favorite coming off a game as a road dog.

Play UNDER

Northwestern took part in a 17-7 game that they won vs Wisconsin last time out . This Saturday when the Cats meet Michigan State Im betting on more grinding slow paced action whith my projections estimated a combined score in the low 30s giving us tremendous value on this line. 

Northwestern has seen 10 straight road games go under the total. 

Michigan State was shutout by a powerful ?Indiana side last time out by a 24-0 count in another grinding slow paced game. Note:Michigan State is 0-9 UNDER L/9 times as a dog coming off a tilt  where they scored less than 27 points going under by an average of -18.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Recently the Steelers run D, has struggled and today Im betting the Jags in a move to stay close and to try to pull off the upset will attack and try to move the chains via their ground game in very conservative fashion which will help keep the clock churning. Also on the flip side experienced HC Tomlin knows  his team needs to take a significant step forward after failing to go over 50 yards rushing in any of their past three game. Im expecting Tomlin to be more aggressive than usual with the ground game , as it needs to improve as we head towards the play offs which will make his team less predictable. This Im betting also helps us cash on the under  in what should be a grinding affair. 

Pittsburgh is 0-14 UNDER L/14 when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 going under by more than a TD  on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500.
 

 Jacksonville is 0-16 L/16 UNDER on a natural surface when they are off a road loss and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1.75 turnovers per game season-to-date.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 35-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Arizona and Seattle are both known for scoring and allowing a boatload full of points but the lines-makers have over compensated here according to my projections. These teams have not had a 57 or higher Total attached to their games that I can find in my data base going back over a 30 year span. It must noted that teams like Arizona that have  scored 28 or more points  in each of their last four tilts have gone under 16 straight times when at least three of those games went over and their opponent is not undefeated on the season. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 89-48 UNDER L/37 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

Kent State has no problem pouring it on and showing very little empathy for their opponents as was evident last week as Juston Crump (8.8 yards per play) threw for a TD with less than 2 min left on the clock in what was already a lopsided event 62-24 event that they won. Im betting on Arkron lighting up the board again vs a Akron secondary allowed 262 yards on just 16 attempts last week. Im also betting on Akron to do just enough damage here to help this contest eclipse the total. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (KENT ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a poor team (outgained by 50-100 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 26-6 OVER L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

This Totals selection is based on my projections that estimate a total combined score of 56 points goin on the board which use pace success rate and plays per success rate . With a FG edge Im recommending we take an under hedge. 

HC Loeffler L/14 games in all lined games as the coach of BOWLING GREEN has seen a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BUFFALO) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 83-39 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

  My projections estimate that this Total  is almost a FG higher than my number 48 - thus giving us value on a under selection. Yes, I know the Broncos, have allowed an  average of 35.7 points over its last three games , but this team is much better defensively than their current run would suggest, and offensively they are extremely inconsistent scoring 18 or less points in 5 of their 9 games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Vegas  has recently found a groove in their run game churning out 209-yard day against Cleveland and followed it up with 160 yard against the Chargers and will want to keep that formula in play which in turn should churn up alot of clock time which will help us cash a under ticket. 

Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-7 in Raiders last 29 vs. AFC West.

The Broncos are 0-10 UNDER  coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected.  Under is 10-3-1 in Broncos last 14 vs. AFC West. Under is 20-8-1 in Broncos last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over  12 straight times  when they are off a defeat when  facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than  31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting  will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. 

 Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall.

Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the OVER 

 USC needed two touchdowns in the final three minutes,  and a successful onside kick, to sneak past Arizona State 28-27 on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Trojans' four turnovers and three failed fourth-down tries  sort of told the tale of this game, but now with a game under their belt Im betting their ability to not lose the ball will improve as will their D and overall play. Considering this is Arizonas first game, Im betting the Wildcats D, will be more acclimated to in game conditions than the offense that will exhibit rust and also solid competition to contend wit, this hindering their flow. . This Im betting results in a combined score that that stays on the low side of the total. 

My projections estimate that we have value with a under wager in a game I have pegged at 63 on the total. 

Under is 29-14-1 in Trojans last 44 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

USC is 0-11 L/11 UNDER  as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they trailed at halftime. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

Play UNDER

  Toledo and Western Michigan own run heavy offenses that operate at a much slower tempo  than the most of the  FBS.Western Michigan didn’t allow a single pass over 15 yards, in their first game, meanwhile, the Toledo  defense  kept Bowling Green below a single point per trip inside the 40-yard line and recorded a  grade of 15th in the country in tackling and coverage. With that said, Im expecting these two MAC contenders to take part in a hard fought physical battle that sees a less combined point score than the linesmakers number suggests .Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Bowling Greens  QB  Matt McDonald went 8-of-30 with two interceptions in his first game of the season with his team scoring just one FG in a 38-3 loss. Bowling Green made seven incursions past the Toledo 40-yard line  and could only muster 3 points and Im betting things do not get much better this week vs Kent State side that  ranks second overall in the  Havoc ratings and has shown a propensity not to miss many tackles. There will be some winds tonight gusting up to 23 plus miles per hr and criss crossing the field which will make moving the chains difficult for both sides. 

Under is 14-3 in Golden Flashes last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a road favorite.

Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 conference games. Under is 11-4 in Falcons last 15 games as an underdog.Under is 14-4 in Falcons last 18 games on fieldturf. Under is 12-4 in Falcons last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Play on the UNDER 

The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in  third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they  run the ball recording a  50.1% clock consuming  average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping  the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number.

These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. 

NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog.

Play UNDER

Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. 

 Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER  when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. 

 The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500.

Play UNDER 

True freshman quarterback Ken Seals  is the real deal and uptrending after hitting on 67 percent of his passes so far.  The kid had a big game against  Ole Miss, passing 31-of-40 for 319 yards for an efficiency 155.9 and now against a much better defence will have the needed reps to get some more positive work in and bolster the confidence of the offense. Meanwhile, the Commodores Defense  is ranked  108th in the country  in total defense, giving up 499.0 yards per game. So Im betting they do some damage but also give up a boatload full of points. So despite of Miss States inconsistent offence Im betting they finally pound away today with non stop attack as the pent up demand for scores is unleashed. The above combination will result in a fairly high scoring affair as compared to the totals number being offered. 

Vanderbilt is 14-0 OVER L/14 as a dog coming off a game as a dog where they lost by at least 14 points with a combined average of 67.6 ppg scored with none of the games in this subset failing to eclipse this totals number.  

Play OVER

BYU QB Wilson has completed 74.6 percent of his passes this season  including  2,152 passing yards and 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Meanwhile, Boise State rank top-10 nationally in Finishing Drives, red zone efficiency, completion percentage and interception rate. Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) during its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). Everything points to a high scoring back and forth affair on the speedy Blue turf. 

Play OVER

Both these teams have started slowly offensively in their games this season, and Im betting that trend continues here tonight which will contribute to a lower scoring game the linesmakers number suggests. Both these sides have shown decent offense but its the defenses that have shined..Both defenses rank top-10 in Finishing Drives. San Jose State has allowed 6 and 21 points respectively in their two tilts and San Diego State has allowed just 6 and 7 points respectively. 

The Aztecs defense is ranked No.1  in the country in defending expected points through the air and rank first in the nation  in defensive Havoc and third-place rank in opponent passing Success Rate. San Diego State defense ranks top-10 in Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives, and PFF coverage grade.

San Jose State has allowed their opposition  to score a minuscule 1.8 points per trip inside the 40-yard line.

From a offensive perspective and considering SD State has  called 65% rushing plays with a pace of 78th in FBS it wont be surprised if they use a run heavy option here tonight. On the flip side with San Jose State Im betting their success rate moving the ball will be limited via the ground game as they  rank second-to-last in Rushing Success Rate and Explosiveness and through the air they take on hard core secondary. So the above combination has me leaning heavily on a low scoring tilt. 

Under is 36-17-1 in Aztecs last 54 home games.Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

The Rams defense looked very vulnerable last week , especially  against the pass. Fresno State QB Jake Haener carved up the  Colorado State secondary, throwing for 311 yards and three scores while averaging 14.1 yards per completion and Im betting they get torched again this week by a Wyoming offense that is off scoring 25 points in the 2nd half of their last game and up-trending with flow. Meanwhile, Colorado State after starting slowly in their first game in the season vs Fresno State  will be primed to bounce back here vs a D that maybe a little over rated considering the accolades they are getting for stuffing a revamped Hawaii offense that was playing the 2nd end of back to back road trips. The kids from Hawaii looked tired. Tonight with the weather looking perfect for fall football ,  no rain or snow expected ,  light winds and comfortable temps this game looks set to eclipse the total. 

Play OVER 

The Aggies are off to a  0-2 start and cant afford to go 0-3 and  really have to open things up in liberal fashion and cant afford to just play a conservative game. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack behind a offense that averages, 37 ppg, and ranking 13th in FBS in total offense, averaging 496 yards per game for 7.47 yards per play should be able to eclipse that mark vs a Aggies D, that has allowed an average of 40 points per game thus far while  ranking  98th in FBS in total defense, allowing 510 yards per game, and 6.94 yards per play.  My projections estimate the Wolfpack should eclipse the 45 point plateau while Utah State fires back  in wide open fashion, as they play for their proverbial play off lives . 

 The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring  tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more  are 19-55-1  to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 
 

The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. 

Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Kansas State is 11-0-1 OVER as a dog coming off a home game where they covered by 14+ points. 

Tulsa is proving that their defense is of the top notch variety at all three levels and Im betting the visiting Pirates have a hard time putting points on the board here today. The Canes have already held Oklahoma State and USF to 13 and 16 points respectively. Tulsa is 83rd in FBS with 65.7 ppg and run their offense at a lower than average pace. What Im betting on here is for Tulsa to grind away on E.Carolina to roll to a victory, but in more conservative fashion than the lines-makers expect as compared to what my projections say is a bloated total. 

Play UNDER 

These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at  23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides  finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on  each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the  Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina  Panthers ranking 21st.

My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight  against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the  Bears offense  without  Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams  run defense  but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams  combined for an average 22.5 points per game  total the last two meetings. 

Bears are 0-13-1  UNDER L/14  off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. 

Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games.

The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER  at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the  scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while  the Steelers have averaged  31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit  13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their  possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13).

Play OVER 

The Cougars are averaging 3.2 sacks per game, which is 15th-best in the nation. They have 16 sacks through five games. Im betting Texas States offense ill have issues flowing in this tilt. BYU’s defense is allowing 14 points per game. Meanwhile, after annihilating Houston on the road last week Im betting this will be a game where alot of starters get rested as they game progresses, as bigger fish are on deck. This Im betting results in a more muted effort offensively from the Cougars in a game that they will use like a week off. 

TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg going on the board. TEXAS ST is 13-3 UNDER L/16 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season with a combined average of 50.2 ppg. TEXAS ST is 8-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 48.9 ppg going on the board.

BYU is 0-13-1 UNDER as a favorite coming off a game where they covered by at least five points with the highest combined score total coming in at 59 points and. the overall combined average score clicking in at 41.9 ppg.BYU is 7-0 UNDER off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.3 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

The Knights behind the big arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who became the first UCF signal-caller to throw for over 500 yards last Saturday against Memphis Im betting will once again be ready to explode on offense vs a suspect Tulane D. Meanwhile, Tulane also has a top tier dual threat QB in Michael Pratt who Im betting will also tee off on a UCF D that ranks 74th in total defense out of 77 FBS teams. 

Play on the OVER 

Tulsa’s showing us a strong defensive structure this season . Ranking third in Havoc ratings lead by Linebacker Zaven Collins who has  owned the opposition with three sacks, three hurries and a top-10 tackles for loss  On the flipside, the Canes offense  has been below average ranking in the bottom 10 in Success Rate with a Finishing Drives rank of 63rd. .Meanwhile, USF  while trying to move at an accelerated pace offense , still have huge problems as their  Offensive Finishing Drives rank a lowly 75th. Thats not a good omen for Bulls fluidity against a  Tulsa defense that  allows just three points per trip in past the 40-yard line. All in all my projections estimate a total closer to 46 whihc gives us great value on a under wager. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TULSA) - off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 or more, in weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 UNDER L/28 seasons. 

Play UNDER 

Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v

KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. 

Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs.

BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  45 ppg going on the board. 

NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC action this Saturday in a game I have projected to eclipse this total. Ill state the obvious by saying that both teams possess explosive offenses with the Tide averaging 51 ppg and the Dawgs 36 ppg, and despite of viable defenses, it will take a boat load full of points for one of these teams to come out on top here, with OT also being  a higher percentage possibility. These teams have seen the over eclisped in 8 of their L/10 meetings and last year they took part in a tilt that combined for 63 points. Rinse and repeat folks. 

ALABAMA is 11-3 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.

Smart is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better as the coach of GEORGIA with a combined average of 67.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Arkansas State Red Wolves’ explosive  offense will  be in tough here against the Georgia State Panthers’ top tier  defense. My projections say they will have success , but not on par with the linesmakers estimates. Yes both teams run fast paced offences, but the totals number, is just a tad high considering one of these sides defence is of the top tier variety Note:Georgia State  ranks second in the nation in defensive Havoc and has registered 17 tackles for a loss. Georgia State, ranks first in Stuff Rate, Power Success and against pass explosiveness. Im betting the Panthers dont make life easy for the Red Wolves, and their 50/50 attack might turn to the run more often and eat clock time  because of the problems that the Panthers secondary will provide. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers expect. 

GEORGIA ST is 7-0 UNDER  in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored.GEORGIA ST is 10-1 UNDER  after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game with a combined average of 48 ppg going on the score board. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (ARKANSAS ST/GEORGIA ST) - when playing on a Thursday are 48-18   UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

In a battle of two undefeated teams, Im betting we see a closely contested affair that is conservative in nature. Neither of these teams plays to tempo. For example :UL Lafayette's offense  averages 26 seconds per play while  Coastal Carolina moves at a snails pace behind one the slowest offenses in the nation at 30.2 seconds per play.  

The Ragin’ Cajuns have had alot of problems converting opportunity into points, with a Finishing Drives rank of 70th in the nation. Meanwhile, UL Lafayette's under appreciated  defense has  done a fantastic job of limiting explosive plays, ranking seventh in opposition plays from scrimmage of  plus 20 yards. 

Everything for me points to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. My projections estimate this total closer to 56 which gives credence to my recommended  under bet. 

COASTAL CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.

LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Miami QB Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions, tied for third most in the NFL. His passer rating ranks 28th and now this week I expect he will be out to protect the ball and make shorter smarter passes buoyed by his teams running game which Im betting eats up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Niners struggled on the offensive line last week, allowing 16 pressures, which is not a good omen for offensive flow here today. With that said, Im betting this number is just a bit bloated and should be closer to 47.5/ giving us value to the under. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he does play will be less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 34-19 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6  or more yards/play with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 27-10 L/37 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 

Play on the UNDER

 QB Skylar Thompson's arm injury is not as bad  as had earlier been anticipated and he will probably play and if he does not Will Howard who is extremely capable will admirably fill in. Kansas State has proven they can move the ball and Im betting they do it again today vs a TCU D in a letdown spot after a big win vs Texas last time out. On the flip side, the Frogs can also light up the board , behind QB   Duggan, a sophomore, who has thrown for 472 yards and three touchdown. Patterson is 20-9 OVER after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of TCU with a combined average of 60.2 ppg scored.

Kansas State is 19-0-1 OVER L/20 dating back to the  2006 season as a dog of at least three points coming off a home game where they allowed at least two points fewer than expected with a combined  average of 69.6 ppg scored with none of the 20 tilts seeing less a combined score at less than this total. 

Play OVER 

Tom Brady and company have accumulated a whopping 97 points (32.3 points per game) in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Knowing this Im betting on the Bears coming up with a very conservative game plan here on the road and try to slow this tilt down to a crawl. Note: With Tarik Cohen  out for season  the Bears offense in no way behind QB Foles is going to be fluid. (The Bears ran for just 28 yards last week) Also with Buccaneers WRs Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) missing this week TBs offense may not be as fluid. 

CHICAGO is 12-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. 

Play UNDER

My numbers suggest this total should be closer to 54.5. So when looking at this game and trying to dissect value I see the under as a viable wager. This is Houstons first game of the season, and Im betting their offensive flow will be less than fluent out of the gate. Meanwhile, as is almost always the case defenses have an edge in preparedness early on in a teams season, I can see Houston ready to play on that front with 93% production back from last season on the defensive side of the ball. Also look for  Tulane to pound the ball on the ground and to eat up plenty of clock time. The Green Wave have rushed on more than 52% of its plays and its become obvious to me QB Keon Howard is not a guy to go to the air much, giving credence to a much more subdued offensive performance. In 57 passes Howard has yet to throw a TD pass and has complete just 48% off 44 drops backs. 

Play on the UNDER

I know we have to good QBs on the field today with Carr and Allen taking snaps, but because of this and some recency bias we have a total that is bloated and only good for public consumption. 

BUFFALO is 9-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 30.2 ppg scored. McDermott is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 33 points per game going on the board.

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LAS VEGAS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Both these sides Air Force and Navy key on running the ball which grinds down alot of clock time. Both sides also know how to defend against the run especially from a similar opponent like they will face today. This adds up to a tilt that Im betting lands under this totals number.  It must be noted  that in  games involving two of the three service academy programs a 35-9-1 record to the under has been registered for a  80% conversion rate.

Last time out Navy made a huge comeback to win 27-24 after being down 24-0 at the half. Now in a huge letdown situation and rusty after a extended two week break Im also betting their offense has another Narcoleptic episode.   Niumatalolo is 17-3 UNDER  after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game as the coach of NAVY. Also Niumatalolo is 20-4 UNDER in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of NAVY while averaging just 19.8 ppg on offense. 

Play UNDER 

Denver and the NY Jets have showed very little flow on offence this season. Denver ranks 30th in DVOA and the NY Jets ranks 31st in DVOA. Both sides have offensive ,line and QB issues, not a good recipe for a high scoring affair, which favors the under.  

 DENVER is 6-0 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.2 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 33.9 ppg scored. 

NY JETS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 33 ppg going on the score board. 

NFL Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight losses by 10 or more points are 26-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Both teams have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line and because of this Im betting offensive flow will be hampered here this week. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 40.4 ppg.  PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Pederson is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 35.8 ppg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 24-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence  and scored just 6 points  in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at  4.4 yards per play  and just  13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number.

Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. 

Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. 

Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

New York has revamped one of the NFL's worst defenses under new coordinator Pat Graham. Defence will now be their priority behind what is expected to be a slower paced offence that will key on using  RB  Barkley  to move the chains consistently.  Meanwhile ,the Steelers Im betting will have flow problems behind the wobbled Roethlisberger who returns after another season of injuries. It must also be noted The Steelers led the NFL with 54 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries and 38 takeaways last season, finishing ranked fifth overall on defense and that will Im betting remain consistent in a tilt I have projected to stay under the the total. 

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

The Texas State offense might have struggled late in their 31-24 loss to SMU, but it pounded out five yards per carry.  Calvin Hill ran for 100 yards and Im betting on more of that today behind a offense that will have the rust off. Meanwhile, the D gave up 544 yards of offense and UTSA also has the guns to do some offensive damage here in this spot totals play that projects a score in the high 50s.  

TEXAS ST is 22-9 OVER  after playing a non-conference game since 1992 with a combined average of 62.8 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

With some game time PTSD , permeating the sidelines of the Chiefs as they remember going down 21-0 to this same Texas team in last years play offs before mounting a huge comeback win . Now with that in mind Im betting the Chiefs to be primed for a  fast start and build a substantial lead.  At that point QB Mahomes would be directed by Reids side line coaching crew to take the foot off the  proverbial pedal and for the Chiefs defense  to go hog wild on  Deshaun Watson as he is forced to open up and  go down field. 

Reid is 9-1 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average score of 40.1 ppg scored and  is 15-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 38.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily  tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in  less first downs and offensive flow and that  will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. 

GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER  after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. 

SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

AFC Divisional Playoffs

Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t  have  gone under at a  36-22-1 clip  including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL  play off games  games have  been going under more often than not  notching a  75-56-4  UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and  public perceptions.  

HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored.  

KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Two top tier football programs with hardcore discipline go head to head in the FCS championship game. This game sees North Dakota States 33-1 SU play off record on the line . ( interestingly enough the only loss came against James Madison).  Bottom line is Im betting the total is a better investment option than what my projections estimate is a coin flip game. 

I cannot see either quarterback carving up the others secondary, and I also expect for both running games to falter against staunch front 7s. Im betting both sides have moderate grinding success moving the ball between the 30s but when it comes to finishing drives  we will see what hardcore defence is all about. Both these sides are tough as nails and rarely make mistakes, which bolsters my under wager . 

Play UNDER 

LendingTree Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL

Miami O offence just cannot generrate consistent flow and the Redhawks rank outside the top 100 in quarterback passer rating, line yards and finishing drives. The RedHawks offence or lack ther off will go against a   UL Lafayette group that ranks top 20 in defensive finishing drives, which is not a good omen for ouptut conversion rate when entering the red zone. Something Im betting the Redhawks dont do much of today aqnyway. On the other side, of the ball, Miami Os defence is very capable and physical for a MAC team and have the ability to slow down the Cajuns explosive attack. Note: Miami 0 is ranked 26th in the nation defensive havoc. 

Both punt units rank to 20 in the nation, so field postion will also hinder offences if expected averages continue --which the odds say are highly likey. 

What Im betting on here is a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

In Miami Os last L/12 non conference games a combined average of 51.1 have been scored.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI OHIO) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 38-10 UNDER L/27 seasomns for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under.

PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER  in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total)

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

Play UNDER

AFC Wild Card Playoffs

Mac Jones,  Alabamas new  No. 1 quarterback , has completed 69.8 percent of his 166 pass attempts, with 11 touchdowns, after taking over from the injured Tua Tagovailoa .Jones has dynamic receivers to target, including DeVonta Smith (65 catches, 1,200 yards, 13 TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (71 catches, 959 yards, 9 TDs) and is more than capable of helping his team pile up points vs a Michigan team that showed themselves defensively porous at times against top tier teams like Ohio State this season.( Ohio State smashed the Wolverines by a 57-29 count). Meanwhile, Michigan can also fire back with some offensive firepower of their own,  with Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson who has thrown 22 touchdown passes and scored five more on the ground this season. I expect some big plays and scores by the Wolf man and crew vs one of Alabamas most mediocre defences in years. LSU pounded Alabama for 46 points in 46-41 win towards the end of this season.  Truth is I smell fire works about to be lit here today and a game that features alot of points . MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 63.9 ppg scored. ALABAMA is 11-2 OVER  when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 66.7 ppg scored.

CFB  Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (ALABAMA/MICHIGAN) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 30-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

 Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

The Kansas State Wildcats and  Navy Midshipman are not quite identical but   they do both like to dominate time of possession. The Wildcats rank fourth in the country in that stat, holding the ball for an average of 34:16 per game while  Navy owns a  33:14 time of possession . That means the Mids can count on getting fewer snaps then usual , as is the case when Army goes against Navy. With that said, Im betting on a grinding game that has both sides ground attack eating up precious clock time and keeping this combined score on the low side of the total. 

KANSAS ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 47.1 ppg going on the board. 

NAVY is 33-15 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (NAVY) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-15 UNDER  L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (KANSAS ST) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 59-25 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Redbox Bowl - Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA

Illinois when they faced a team similar to California in the regular season, saw a game that saw  them beat  Michigan State  37-34  on Nov. 9. Im betting the Illini  very capable offense to once again do some damage here today, while their sometimes porous D to part like Moses parting the Red Sea. It must be noted that Californias last 4 games, all saw a combined point total that eclipsed this number. My projections make this line Total closer to 47 thus giving us one possession value on the over. Note: HC Wilcox in in 36 lined games as the coach of CALIFORNIA has seen a combined average of 46.6 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Western Kentucky's offense is efficient and were uptrending towards the end of the season averaging more than 37.4 ppg in their L/3 tilts. The Hilltoppers are  led by running back Gaej Walker, who collected 1,115 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly five yards per carry. Quarterback Ty Storey who started nine games at Arkansas last season before transferring , has completed 70.7 percent of his 294 passes for 2,209 yards, 12 touchdowns and matches up well vs W.Michigans inconsistent secondary and a D that has allowed an average of 36.5 ppg on the road this season.  Meanwhile, Western Michigan is also very capable offensively behind Running back LeVante Bellamy who has accumulated  1,412 rushing yards and is tied for the national lead with 23 rushing touchdowns, and  Quarterback Jon Wassink who was a third-team All-MAC selection, throwing for 2,904 yards, with 19 touchdowns. Western Michigan in games played on turf have scored an average of 36 ppg. Everything points to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

W KENTUCKY is 17-6 OVER L/23 after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored. 

W MICHIGAN in their L/6  road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s  tilts involving 2 above .500  sides  are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. 

BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0  L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board.

NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

CFB Playoff - Fiesta Bowl - State Farm Stadium - Glendale, AZ

Plenty off offence here, but what stands out about both Clemson and Ohio State is what amounts to be some of the physical defences in the nation.The Tigers are ranked  first in scoring defense (10.6) and first in total defense (244.7). haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game this season and Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (12.5) and second in total defense in the nation. With that said, Im betting we have a rockem sockem nasty in the trenches defensive slugfest today and what could easily be the national championship game. 

CLEMSON is 50-21 UNDER L/71 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) with a combined average of 49.1 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 6-0 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.9 ppg scored. 

OHIO ST is 30-16 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 42.6 ppg scored. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (CLEMSON) - in non-conference games, with 8 offensive starters returning are 48-15 L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 CFB Playoff - Peach Bowl - Georgia Dome - ATLANTA, GA

 LSU  is third in the country in scoring (47.8) and first in yards (554.3)..The Sooners rank just behind the Tigers with averages of 43.2 points and 554.2 yards.The  Sooners  have scored 28 or more points in each of their last 51 games. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (out-gaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 36-10 OVERv L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Neutral field teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (LSU/OKLAHOMA) - when playing on a Saturday are 30-10 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX

Oklahoma State's offense features the nation's leading rusher in sophomore back Chuba Hubbard. He ran for 1,936 yards on 309 carries (6.8 yards per carry) in the regular season. So Im betting they pound away on the ground today, and eat up clock time. Meanwhile, the Texas A&M D, allowed 12 rushing touchdowns all year, so output projections are low according to my estimates. The Aggies have played one of the more difficult schedules in the country. And have  battled Auburn, Alabama and LSU  and Georgia, so slowing down Oklahoma State offence will not be an extremely difficult task, while their own offence has been less than cohesive this season. This combination of projected scenarios makes for a combined score that stays on the low side of the total.

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB All teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 27-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OKLAHOMA ST) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 41-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER  L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Boise State has averaged 39.7 ppg on offence when travelling this season, and Im betting they do a fair amount of damage here today vs a downtrodden Huskies side, that had expected better results this season. Meanwhile, Washington in 9 games played on turf this season have averaged 34 ppg and have enough offensive weapons to answer back against the Broncos.  BOISE ST is 10-0 OVER L/10 in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with a combined average of 76.3 ppg scored. Harsin is 12-4 OVER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of BOISE ST with the combined average score of 70.1 ppg scored.

CFB team against the total (BOISE ST) - in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New Mexico Bowl - Dreamstyle Stadium - Albuquerque, NM

 C.Michigan have scored 45 or more points in 3 of their L/5 games, and despite of playing a very strong D here today, Im betting they will do enough damage to get this combined score over the total. Meanwhile, San Diego State despite of not being a strong offensive team, will also have to open up here a bit today , because as I mentioned above their going to get pierced for points more than usual. If Central Michigan has a weakness its this D, which is allowing 34. 8 ppg on the road. 

C MICHIGAN in their L/6  vs. average passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season with a  combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the board. 

CFB teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO ST) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning are 38-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Two red hot  offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th.  The Buccaneers  have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of  61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored.

The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight  away  tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are  6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. 

Play OVER 

Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX

Im betting on  a ok corral type blastem up offensive gunfight here in Texas this Friday between two teams with alot of offensive fire power capabilities. 

Utah State junior quarterback Jordan Love after passing for 8,283 yards and 57 touchdowns in three seasons with the Aggies, will be ready to showcase his talents for the upcoming NFL draft. QUOTE:"Knowing that it's my last game here as an Aggie, wearing that uniform, it's really important for me to just go out there and ball out," Love said, "and have fun with my brothers this last time." END QUOTE. Love has completed 263-of-434 passes for 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns this season and more of the same is on tap today vs a Kent State team allowing more than 34.6 ppg away from home this season. Meanwhile, duel threat Kent State QB Junior quarterback Dustin Crum led the Golden Flashes in passing and rushing, throwing for 2,336 yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for 560 yards and five more scores and will once again Im betting take advantage of a Aggies D, that is less than strong allowing 31 + ppg on the road this season. With that said,  I expect both sides to surpass their offensive and defensive averages this season in an entertaining free for all offensive slugfest.  

Lewis in 9 games when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of KENT ST has seen a combined average of 66.9 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (UTAH ST/KENT ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 44-16 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg  going on the scoreboard in their  L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a   Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg .

The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona  team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said,    I expect both teams to do  fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting  goes over the total. 

The Cards will playing their  2nd game straight game  vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd  of back-to-back  non conference games are 13-0 OVER. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on OVER 

Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result   of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. 

DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored .

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER