The Buckeyes  come in here as underdogs , but it must be noted that they are a bankroll expanding  14-0 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points since 2009. Im not amored by Sabsans group this season, especially defensively  as was the evident when they allowed the Gators to pop 48 pints on them , making them vulnerable against what I estimate is one of Ohio State strongest  football programs in years. 

The underdog is 5-1 ATS all-time in College Football Playoff Championship games .

Saban is 9-19 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 230 or more  rushing yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA
OHIO ST is 21-7 ATS L/28  as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points .



CFB Neutral field underdogs (OHIO ST) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games are 30-7 ATS L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are  15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

The Ducks got into the Pacific-12 Conference title game only because Washington had to drop out because of coronavirus concerns. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship and Im betting they will make the best of this bowl appearance. 

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (IOWA ST) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 22-12 L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

CFB  team (OREGON) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 or more  YPR), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Oregon to cover 

 These teams Ohio State and Clemson  took part in a 29-23 Championship event last season and Im betting on another close tilt this time around that will see the underdog cover. 
Key will be the Buckeyes  top tier standard downs Success Rate in the nation, which has been an Achilles heel for the Clemson defense.

OHIO ST is 20-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 . 

CFB team (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a good rushing team (4.3 to 4.8 YPR), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Notre Dame had a fine campaign, but they were exposed by Clemson in a one sided loss late in the season. Its the Irish D, that showed the most promise this season, but the Tigers slashed them, and Alabama is a side that can and Im betting will do similar damage in what my projections estimate will end uo in a one sided Alabama victory. The Crimson Tide (11-0) topped 50 points six times and averaged 49.7 points  second-best nationally, and have the guns to dismember any team in the nation, including a Irish program I have a high degree of respect for. Bama  offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian Im sure detected and dissected  what Clemson did in the victory vs Notre Dame. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NOTRE DAME) - after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 98-164 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 104-1 SU in his career when favored by 17 or more points. 

Play on Alabama to cover

Starting in the past three games, Georgia Bulldogs QB  Daniels has thrown for 839 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception in wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina and then-No. 25 Missouri. Georgia averaged 41.6 in those games after the Bulldogs scored at least 40 just once in the previous six games. So needless to say there is new offensive life in the Dawgs bark , and they will give Cincinnati's strong defense their biggest test of the season, according to my projections. Meanwhile, the Bearcats, offense , is led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year who has 2,090 passing yards, with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has rushed for 609 yards and a team-high 12 scores and can move the ball against any D in the nation behind an assorted balanced group as Seven Bearcats have at least 186 yards and a touchdown receiving, led by Josh Whyle's 318 yards and five scores.  Im betting on alot more points here than the lines-makers are anticipating. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-4 OVER L/5 seasons for 91% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 Army Head coach Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls and the program has won four straight going back to 1986. I have alot of respect for this HC, and his ability to have this team ready to play West Virginia here today. 
W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS  as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. 

CFB  team (ARMY) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 6 points or less last game are 35-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.


CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (W VIRGINIA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 20-11 SU L/10 seasons . 

Play on Army to cover 

The Bulldogs (3-7) will make a school-record 11th consecutive bowl appearance, while the Golden Hurricane (6-2) will play in their first bowl since 2016 when they meet on New Year's Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl at Fort Worth, Texas.

Tulsa behind a top tier D had a fine season, but Mississippi State is a power 5 team from one of the strongest conferences in the nation and deserve our respect here in this spot.  It must be noted noted that. the underdog dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six Mississippi State  bowl games  and HC Mike Leach stands tall with a  26-11 ATS as a road dog against sides like Tulsa with a better record. Considering ACC bowl sides are just 1-5 ATS L/6 vs a the ACC, it was not a hard decision for me to pull the trigger with the Bulldogs. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored 107-59 ATS L/28 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on Mississippi State to cover 

 Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC

Wisconsin at 3-3 on the season  is getting far to much respect here in a rebuilding year. I know Wake forest finished the season, on a 0-2 run but ot must be noted that head coach Dave Clawson,  when off consecutive losses, is a bankroll expanding  10-0 ATS when the last loss was a  double-digit ATS defeat, which was the case . Clawson is also 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.

Take the points with Wake Forest to cover 

Colorado used to be a member of the Big 12 conference and it must be noted that when Texas played  the Buffs they smashed them  in five straight games by an average margin of 32.8 points. I know these are different manifestations of these football programs, but from a matchup perspective my projections. make the Longhorns DD favs in this spot thus we have value based on my numbers. 

Key to this tilt: Colorado had the 13th-highest rushing rate in the country this season, keeping the ball on the ground on 60% of its offensive possessions. However, the Texas  defense has been close to spectacular slowing the run this season, ranking 36th in the country in Rushing Success rate  allowing 3.6 yards per carry, rankings 25th in the nation. Advantage Longhorns. 

Texas HC Herman is 16-5 ATS  in non-conference games in all games he has coached with a the average ppg diff clicking in at +22.6 ppg. Texas is 3-1 in the Alamo Bowl, including a 38-10 win over Utah last season. With Herman at the helm of the program Texas is 3-0 in bowl games, winning by an average of 17.3 ppg. 

Play on Texas to cover 

  The W.Kentucky Hilltoppers rank fifth in the conference in scoring defense (24.1). They lead Conference USA in pass defense, allowing 170.1 yards per game and Im betting they are well suited to slow down Georgia States attack. Meanwhile, on the flip side the Toppers, are offensively unstable and have only averaged 18 ppg away from home this season, and Im betting their inability to score will once again be on display today in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Two strong sides off of champinship games losses, are not looking as viable as they did earlier in the season. 

Hawaiis offense has not been as explosive as it has been in recent seasons, and that was evident in their 3 road games where they averaged 17 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense has not looked as bad as recent incarnations, and the program under Graham  now looks different  rankingn in the top 30 for Success Rate. This season Hawaii has had success via their run game, as the  rushing attack is top-10 in the nation in explosiveness while maintaining a Line Yards rank of 26th. Considering their current form and the way the Warriors play, Im expecting them to look to grind this clock down with a run heavy attack, and remain conservative in their game plan vs a Houston side that has run hot and cold on offense all season long. Note: Houstons HC Holgorsen is 9-1 UNDER in December games in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 55 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Florida Atlantic after allowing 20 points or less in 6 straight games, finally looked flat last time out in a loss to Southern Miss . With that said, Im betting on the FAU getting back to business and showing us how tough their D can be, against a Memphis side that is  known for top tier offensive assaults. Note: Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield, is  1-7 SUATS in its last eight bowl games, including 0-5 SUATS the last five overall.  Meanwhile, the Owls, are 4-0 SUATS all-time in bowl games .

New Orleans Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Superdome - New Orleans, LA

The Tigers took a backward step this season from an offensive perspective and  ended the regular season going under the total in three straight tilts against FBS opposition while overall ranking of 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in Line Yards . The Tiger just cant run the ball well thus making them easy to read. That will once again be the case vs a staunch Florida Atlantic D, that allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games before a lackluster effort in their final game of the season vs Southern Miss, but that was because of their run D, something Mempjhis will not be able to exploit in the same way . Meanwhile, on the flipside the Owls offense has struggled all season long ranking  115th on offensive standard downs Success Rate. Considering both sides of offensive discrepancies and than adding in Florida Atlantic's top tier stopping unit, has me recommending we take the under. 

 CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (FLA ATLANTIC/ MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The matchup pits two of the top offenses in the country against each other. UCF ranks second in the nation in total offense (585 yards per game) while BYU is 10th (510 yards per game). The game features two of the best quarterbacks in the nation. I look for both teams to tee off on each other and for this to be a one possession game that favors the side getting points according to my projections. 

BYU is 0-6 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. Sitake is 0-7 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.

CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (BYU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 9-21 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

UCF to cover 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID

Despite the Green Wave overall good defensive numbers they have had issues against top tier passing sides,  as is evident by  defending pass explosiveness, ranking  124th in the nation. Meanwhile, Nevada QB Carson Strong finished the season as one of the  top passers in the  nation, ranking sixth among all quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage. So Im betting the Wolfpack have some cohesiveness through the air today, and will look downfield quite alot knowing how tough the Green Wave run defense can be. On the flipside one again, Tulane does like to run the ball alot that can grind down the clock, but new New offensive coordinator Chip Long formerly with Notre Dame after having two week to prepare for thsi tilt, will be ready to throw some new stuff into the mix and Im betting Nevada wont be able to deal with it all that well. This is not a conference game, and will be played alot less tightly than those type of affairs thats why I expect this total to be eclipsed. 

CFBeams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (NEVADA) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with a poor defense (390-440 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 43-14 OVER l/28 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

The Mean Green own  one of the fastest offenses of all FBS ranking second in tempo and this team takes a no prisoners approach to moving the chains through the air. I know App State owns a tremendous secondary, but I still expect N.Texas to do a degree of damage while their own D, which ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and Finishing Drives. App State has not always had alot of flow on offense this season, but the offensive line has still  produced a top-30 ranking in Line Yards and Power Success Rate and Im betting they have a great deal of success today in what promises to see a combined score that eclipses the total. 

Play OVER 

Tulsa has a fine hard working defensive group and have made large strides this season and deserve respect but not my backing as DD underdogs in this spot. The reason Im willing to lay this much lumber with the Bearcats is because this is a top teir group on a national level, while Tulsa despite of a top 25 ranking is not. Tulsa just does not in my humble opinion have the guns to hang with Cincinnati as this game moves into the 2nd half. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULSA) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (80% or more) playing a team with a winning record are 1-27 SU L/5 seasons for a  97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.3 ppg. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

After a slow start Stanford has finally started to operate optimally, as they have now won three stragijht games all on the road.  Now this sweek, Im betting on the Cardinal flow and momentum to continue upward vs a UCLA side in an emotional letdown scenario after blowing a DD lead to USC last week, and finally succumbing to a loss. The Cardinal have ewon 11 of tne L/12 meetings in this sseries SU and will not be easily disposed of this week. STANFORD is 32-17 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game. STANFORD is 13-4 ATS  in December games since 1992. UCLA is 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS L/8  in Last Home Game of the season features.

Play on Stanford to cover 

 Clemson has revenge on board for a loss to Notre Dame earlier this season, and odds are they will probably get it , but Im betting ti wont come easily. In the first meeting  the Irish outrushed the Tigers by  208- 34, count and that was not a fluke. On the flip side  they were able   to stop cold  Clemson RB Travis Etienne  allowing him just 28 yards on 18 carries. .  It must also be noted that same-season revengers in conference championship games when they sport a  better record are 0-12 SU L/7 seasons .  Add to that Notre Dames QB Ian Book owns a  30-3 SU record as a starter for the Irish and in my humble opinion is a better sgnal caller than all world QB Lawrence and we have a go to take points here with a Fighting Irish side that deserves respect as DD dogs. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover  

Wisconsin has lost 3 straight games and score a total of 20 points in those tilts and are now being asked to cover by almost 13 points. Im not buying in on this number, and instead suggest we take the points with Minnesota side that will grind away on the ground behind the legs of Mohammed Ibrhim the  Big Ten Conference Running Back of the Year . The hard driving kid needs just  75 yards to reach 1000 yards and will be key here to the Gophers being competetive. MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS  after a game where they committed no turnovers over the last 3 seasons and are 5-1 ATS L/6 visits here. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The two longtime SEC rivals meet in their regular-season finale Saturday afternoon at Baton Rouge, La. Ole Miss needs this game badly as they look for a Bowl invite.LSU (4-5) can't have a winning record and is bowl ineligible after self-imposing a postseason ban amid an NCAA investigation into the program and are not and motivated and thus fade material here for me this week. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a terrible defense (6.2 or more  YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 29-2 SU L/28 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors wirth the average ppg diff clikcing in at +23.2 ppg. 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) - in conference games, off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less are 8-24 ATS L/5 season s for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

The Buckeyes (5-0, 5-0 Big Ten) are looking to cement their spot in the College Football Playoff despite critics contending they haven't played enough games and weren't impressive when they did play.  Northwestern (6-1, 6-1) knows the odds are against it, just as they were in the 2018 conference title game, which the Buckeyes won 45-24. This time around I like the chances of Northwestern being a little more competetive after a season that saw them see a  9  PPG  increase on offense and 9 less PPG on defense from last season.  Note: Underdogs in Big Ten conference title game is 7-1 ATS all-time. 

Fitzgerald is 13-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.  Fitzgerald is 20-6 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

The Ducks and No. 15 Trojans will  play for the Pac-12 championship on Friday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. My projections make the Trojans 6 point favs here vs what my power rankings suggest is an over rated opponent. 

USC is 20-7  L/27 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

CFB home team vs. the money line (USC) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games are 26-2 SU l/5 seasons with the ppg diff clicking in at +17.4 ppg.

Play on USC to cover 

The Buffalo Bulls  Jaret Patterson leads the nation in rushing at 205 ypg.  However, the Ball State Cardinals own    the best run defense the future NFLer has faced to this point in the campaign as they have given up an average of just 148 yards per game. It must also be noted that Ball State  also owns the second-best offense that Buffalo has faced this season. Considering the Bulls have shown some inconsistencies on defence this season with some breakdowns, as was the case when thye recently allowed Kent State to score 41 points on them  it will not be a hard decision here to take points here. 

BALL ST is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.BALL ST is 6-0 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or mkore yards/game over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Ball State to cover 

Rutgers has looked very competitive of late winning 2 of their L3 while Nebraska has ,lost 3 of their L/4 and continue to have issues with offensive flow averaging just 22.4 ppg on the season. There is no way Nebraska deserves to be more than a 3 point fav here if at all and recommending we take the points with the Scarlet Knights. 

Frost is 0-6 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of NEBRASKA. Schiano is 18-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEBRASKA) - after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games are 43-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Rutgers to cover 

Marshall (7-1 overall, 4-1 C-USA) holds an 8-2 edge all-time against UAB (5-3, 3-1), including a 5-0 mark inside Joan C. Edwards Stadium. The only loss the Thundering Herd have  was two weeks ago against Rice by a 20-0 count. While it may not have been a complete fluke is was a very strange event, and now after a week off and redemption on board vs UAB im betting there will be a huge pent up demand to smash this or any opponent mercilessly . Note: Marshall won its first seven games, climbing into the top 15 in the national rankings for the first time since 1999. The Herd also spent multiple weeks in the College Football Playoff rankings for the first time in program history and deserve our respect here at a TD or less. UAB is 6-16 ATS  in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.

Play on Marshall to cover 

BYU is coming into this game off a loss to Coastal Carolina last time out and will be primed to come out here with a huge effort at home in the land of the Mormons. Quote: "It hurts," Milne said. "I think that happening honestly just put a chip on our shoulder, that we're not done yet. We've got a lot more to say, and we'd like any opportunity we can to just go prove ourselves." END Quote. The Cougars rank seventh in the nation in scoring offense (44.5 points per game) and total offense (522.7 yards per game) and Im betting after having to endure a strong defensive side last week, will now be acclimated to take another staunch D and will have more success. 

CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-17 ATS 28 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettlors. 

Play on BYU to cover 

The “Crosstown Rivalry” battle of LA goes this Saturday.
The 4-0 Trojans if they win today can get into the conference championship game, but Im betting the already motivated Bruins will feel even more empowered to knock the wind out of the Trojans championship hopes with a win of their own.  UCLA is 3-1-1 ATS as home dogs of 8 or fewer points. USC is 6-16 ATS in December games since 1992.CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - after beating the spread by more than 7 points in three consecutive games, in the second half of the season are 36-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate and a perfect 6-0 SU this season. 

Play on UCLA to cover 

TCU will host Louisiana Tech on Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas. TCU is coming off a huge win as pups last time out but it must be noted that 

TCU is 0-15 ATS L/15 as a favorite of more than three points coming off a win as a dog which is the case going into this tilt vs LA Tech vs HC Skip Holtz who is  8-1 ATS during the regular season against sides coming off a SU underdog victory.

. Note: HC Patterson of TCU when coming off a Straight up win as a underdog victory, going  g 0-12 ATS L/12  when favored by more than 3 point 

TCU is 1-8 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

Play on LA Tech to cover 

Craig Bohl’s Cowboys have covered  4 of their L/5 in this series vs Boise State   . Bohl also owns a   9-0 SU winning streak at home and must not be underestimated in his ability ofr his side  compete here vs the Broncos.  Note: Boise state  is  being outgained by -10 net yards per game,  while  Wyoming is out yarding their opposition by 95 yards per tilt. Advantage Wyoming. 

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Houston has under achieved this season, and despite of being in desperation mode as they look for a Bowl invite, Im betting if they find a way to win, it wont come easily vs the 6-3 Memphis Tigers who are  4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS L/5  in this series while having covered 9 of their L/12 at home as underdogs.  Note: Houston because of covid issues have not played since Nov 14, which was a win vs defensive hapless South Florida. Rust and flow issues are my bet here in. atilt that favors Memphis and not the Cougars. HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. HC Holgerson has failed to cover 18 of his L/24 games with rest. 

Play on Memphis to cover 

We have a very low total attached to this game but rightly so. Since 2005, games between two of the three service academy teams have gone 36-9-1 to the under. And the Army-Navy matchup, specifically, has  gone under 14 of the L/15 times. Rinse and repeat in another grinding affair between these two rivals. 

Play UNDER

Coastal Carolina is off a huge win vs BYU last time out and now going on the road will be in a vulnerable emotional letdown situation.

TROY is 7-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.

The Trojans are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs of more than 10 points since becoming a Division-1 program in 2001 and must not disrespected  or underestimated in this spot. 

Play on the Troy Trojans to cover 

Rice upset a strong Marshall side last time out and deserve respect behind a strong secondary that had five picks in the above mentioned underdog win. Meanwhile, UAB hasn't played since Halloween and since then, leading WR Austin Watkins has decided to skip the rest of the season.RICE is 13-4 ATS L/17 off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points.RICE is 16-4 ATS  in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. RICE is 25-6 ATS  in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

CFBUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RICE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 55-22 ATS L/28 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Rice to cover 

The Demon Deacons (4-3, 3-3 ACC) have played once since Oct. 31 -- a 59-53 loss Nov. 14 at North Carolina and held a full practice on Saturday, it was its first since Thanksgiving Day. The Deacons are a rusty team, and are at a disadvantage here mon the road this week. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams ( 440 or more  YPG) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 23-3 SU L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Louisville to cover 

Ball State enters this tilt in top form as is evident by having  allowed season-low yardage in each of their last two tilts , with  QB Drew Plitt  passing for  300-yards  in both games  including 6 Touch down passes. Im betting on more of the same top tier action here at home today vs a Western Michigan team that is over rated according to my power rankings mostly because of a pourous defence that allows an average of 35 ppg. 

 MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. W MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.


CFB home team vs. the money line (BALL ST) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 44-9 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate and perfect 6-0 so far this season/.

Play on Ball State 

Its become obvious to me that Georgia is just not as explosive as recent incarnations of the program, and are getting far to much respect here in the road in this SEC matchup vs Missouri. Note:   Georgia has questions at quarterback. Starter Stetson Bennett took a hard hit and injured his shoulder on Saturday. He left the game in favor of D'Wan Mathis, who struggled as a starter in the season opener against Arkansas and has seen limited playing time since.  Considering that Stetson is less than 100% and may not play at all I like the Tigers chances according to my projections of getting us a cover here this week. 

CFB  team (GEORGIA) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games are 16-42 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Missouri to cover 

Due to Santa Clara (Calif.) County’s COVID-19 restrictions, San Jose State is forced to leave home  at UNLV’s old stadium. Thats not a conducive situation for success as Im sure their flow will be thrown off to some extent. Advantage Nevada.

Play on Nevada to cover 

After a long trip back home from Hawaii  after having their undefeated season abruptly end  Im expecting Wolf Pack... who have failed to cover the last five meetings in this series at home to once again feel the pinch in this key game vs a Fresno State side that deserves respect as an underdog. 

CFB home team (NEVADA) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEVADA) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 16-43 ATS L/28 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Fresno St to cover 

Baylor's largest loss this year was by 10 points and Im betting they find a way to hand tough here vs this potent Oklahoma Sooners offense.Oklahoma and Baylor played twice last season -- both thrilling games pulled out by the Sooners. In the regular-season matchup, Oklahoma overcame a 31-10 halftime deficit to win 34-31. In the Big 12 Championship Game, the Sooners needed overtime to win 30-23. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here tonight. BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons and  is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 season.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, when playing on a Saturday are 25-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baylor to cover 

The No. 3 Tigers  smashed Pittsburgh last week and looked like they were not worried about running up the score. for their 28th-consecutive home win.  Considering Clemsons D, now looks to be in top form as is evident by holding  4 of their last six opponents to season-low yards I will not feel any hesitation and laying a load of lumber here with them today vs a talented but  over rated Virginia Tech side.  Clemson is 17-0 ATS/SU L/17 as a road favorite of more than a TD coming off a game where scored more points than their team total with the average combined ppg diff clicking in at 36 ppg while covering by just under 19 ppg. Also CLEMSON is 7-0 ATS   in road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons ( Clemson 43 Opp 9). 

Play on Clemson to cover 

 The No. 14-ranked Chanticleers (9-0) were scheduled to face No. 25 Liberty (9-1) on Saturday. But that game was cancelled Thursday due to COVID-19 issues within the Flames program.So Coastal Carolina will host No. 8 Brigham Young (9-0) instead.  According to my power rankings these sides are more closely matched than the linesmakers number and thus Im recommending we take the points. CFB  A home team vs. the money line (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or more )are 43-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. CFB home team vs. the money line (COASTAL CAROLINA) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 30-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams (190 to 230 RY/game), after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 5-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

GTech after almost a month off came out and smashed the Duke Blue Devils last week putting a season-high 523 yards in their 56-33  victory.  Now Im betting on that momentum to continue vs a North Carolina State season looking ahead to post season play and most probably looking to stay healthy. GEORGIA TECH is 10-2 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. GEORGIA TECH is 8-1  L/9 on the road against the spread versus NC STATE .

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA TECH) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 31-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Georgia Tech to cover 

The  Tulsa Canes produce just under  62% of its offensive flow  via their passing game while the  Navy defense ranks 2nd in the conference against the pass.  Meanwhile, the Middies  offense generates 62% of their drives on the ground while Tulsas defense ranks 4th in the conference against the rushing attacks. Im betting because of these peripherals that we see a game alot closer than the linesmakers are estimating . Add to that this is a look ahead situation for Tulsa with nationally ranked Cincinnati on deck for next week and a live dog looks to be on board here today. NAVY is 9-0 ATS  vs. sub par  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Navy to cover 

Virginia is getting to much respect here based on three straight wins , that were actually not that impressive other than their 44-41 shootout win vs UNC  where they were still out yarded. Prior to their current run they lost 4 straight games which included blowout beatdowns vs Wake Forest and NC State. Meanwhile, Boston College remains under rated , despite of a strong Q JBurkovec who has thrown for over 2,500 yards on the season with 17 touchdowns with only five interceptions and a never say die group around him that plays hard.Virginia ranks last in the ACC in pass defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game through the air and are vulnerable here today. 

Play on Boston College to cover 

Akron has lost  20 straight tilts overall, including 11 straight on the road and their L/9 at home .  HC Tom Arth's  Zips haven't won a single game at  (0-16) and now they are being made 3 point chalk. Not buying it, and Im recommending we take the points with Bowling Green. AKRON is 0-10 ATS /SU when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

BOWLING GREEN is 6-1 against the spread versus AKRON since 1992 @ Akron! 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AKRON) - with a turnover margin of -1.5 /game or worse on the season are 6-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Road underdogs (BOWLING GREEN) - after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 62-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

Western Michigan is a perfect 4-0 on the season but their L/3 games have been decided in one possession final scores. Now enters a never say die hard nosed E.Michigan side that is not usually an easy out as is evident by their 23-6 ATS L/29 game record as road underdogs. E.Michigan is off a loss last time out, but that sets them up for a big motivational bounce back situation here vs top tier opposition. Note: Eastern Michigan is 14-0 ATS L/14 on the road coming off a loss with none of the SU losses in this set coming. by more than a TD. 

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

The Buckeyes come into this game with COVID-19 problems, and go against a Michigan State side that is starting to find its stride and is off a surprising win vs Northwestern last time out. The Buckeyes are still obviously the superior side, but Im betting Ohio States flow will be off because of the health issues being centered upon by league officials and the media. Its just not a cohesive environment, for positive energy to flow. With that said, Ill give the edge to the uptrending Spartans and their solid defensive abilities to cover the number . MICHIGAN ST is 38-19 ATS  after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. 

CFB Road favorites (OHIO ST) - excellent offensive team (440 or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 33-71 ATS L/28 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

The Boilermakers have one of the most dynamic  wide receiver duos in all of college football with Rondale Moore and David Bell and Im betting these two stars help put a boatload full of points on the board vs a Nebraska D, that is allowing an average of 32.6 ppg. Meanwhile, here on the road Im also betting Nebraska behind a offence that put 30 points on the board vs Penn State to open up here and reciprocate with some fireworks of their own.HC Brohm is 16-3 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 68.2 ppg scored .Brohm is 30-12 OVER   when the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached since 1992 with a. combined average of  with a combined average of 75.5 ppg scored. Brohm is 8-1 OVER   as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of PURDUE with a combined average of 63.9 ppg.

Play OVER 

App State has lost two games this season one to ranked Coastal Carolina after blowing a  lead and once to a powerful looking Marshall football program. But Im betting that will be their last loss in Sunbelt conference action this season. and from my power rankings list matchup well vs a ULL side that they own a perfect 8-0 SU record against in their L/8 meetings.     Look for AUS QB Zac Thomas who  is 30-5 as a starter in his College career to show us what hes made of today and that in my opinion is pure titanium  After putting 70 points on the board vs UL Monroe last week, I look for a energy drop off here  against a side that is out to make a statement. :  You have to remember Lafayette has clinched a title shot  and are a in a look ahed situation with  Coastal Carolina up next  in the conference title game.  

APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons.APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS  after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Home favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (outgain opp. by 50-100 YPG), after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on App State to cover 

My projections estimate that Air force will put 35+ points on the board vs a Utah State D, that has allowed an average of of 35.2 ppg . Note: UTAH ST is 20-7 L/27  OVER when they allow 35 to 41 points with the combined average score of 58.9 ppg scored.Meanwhile, Utah finally started to open up their offense , and get it flowing last time out putting 41 points on the board, and Im betting they do enough damage here to get this combined score over the total. 

AIR FORCE is 15-4 OVER L/19 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return with a combined average of 65.1 ppg. AIR FORCE is 10-2 OVER in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season with a combined average of 57.2 ppg going on the board.Calhoun is 31-17 OVER  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of AIR FORCE with a combined average of 59.8 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (UTAH ST) - with a poor rushing D - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 36-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER 

Skip Holtz and LA Tech have not played since Halloween and Im betting his offence will be rusty and take time to get into a flow here. Meanwhile, North Texas despite of showing some defensive deficiencies this season, will according to my projections hold down the fort to an extent, and help keep this tilt on the low side of the slightly bloated number.  Also look for The Mean Green to pound the ball on the ground against a Tech side that has had problems stopping the run whihc will eat clock time in a hurry. Note: Holtz is 10-1 UNDER  in road games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 43.7 ppg going on the board. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.9 ppg scored. 

NORTH TEXAS is 9-0 UNDER  after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 56.3 ppg scored. 

CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (North Texas/ LOUISIANA TECH) - when playing on a Thursday are 50-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Wolf Pack are  off a huge win vs San Diego State  last time out and will be in a letdown spot here vs Hawaii this week who sit  at 2-3  and hungry for a win as they look for a Bowl experience. , It must be noted that  HC Graham owns a 22-4 ATS record  at home against opposition  arriving off a SUATS victory.  Nevada is vulnerable thus taking points is a viable investment option. 

Wolf Pack are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Hawaii to cover 

Arizona did not play well vs Washington last week, but did look good vs strong USC team in a earlier tilt and very much look capable of staying close enough for a cover vs a Chip Kelley program that has been far from consistent since his arrival losing 18 of 27 games. 

Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Wildcats are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. 

Bruins are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.Bruins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Bruins are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Play on Arizona to cover 

Im betting on TCU pounding the ball on the ground quite a bit today and eating up alot of clock time in the process. Meanwhile, the flip-side, TCU D Im betting makes life miserable for a Kansas  offense that averages just 15.1 ppg to be stymied in a tilt that Im betting stays on the low side of this total. TCU is 0-12 UNDER L/12  as a favorite coming off a game as a road dog.

Play UNDER

Memphis is not as strong as they have been in recent seasons, and as a favorite (0-3 ATS) in an FBS game this season and the D is weaker than expected    allowing 477 yards per game .  Meanwhile, Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo is a proven winner and now desperate need for a victory to be Bowl eligible. With that said,  Im betting he will have his team ready to play this Saturday behind what is now a more balanced offensive attack . 

Navy is 11-0-2 ATS L/13 when they allowed at least 28 points last game. Midshipmen are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games.Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Play on Navy to cover  

A big win vs Wisconsin last time out has Northwestern sitting at a perfect 5-0.  The Cats were far then perfect in the 17-7 win vs the Badgers and were out yarded by 100 yards and may now showing a little exhaustion and could easily be over looking the struggling Spartans making them vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Spartans under first-year head coach Mel Tucker have just win vs long time rivals Michigan and have suffered two straight loss one of which came vs a powerful Indiana team so they get a break there from me . Spartans are a viable 6-1 ATS  L/7home  as a DD dog and are viable underdogs in this spot. 

Michigan State to cover 

Northwestern took part in a 17-7 game that they won vs Wisconsin last time out . This Saturday when the Cats meet Michigan State Im betting on more grinding slow paced action whith my projections estimated a combined score in the low 30s giving us tremendous value on this line. 

Northwestern has seen 10 straight road games go under the total. 

Michigan State was shutout by a powerful ?Indiana side last time out by a 24-0 count in another grinding slow paced game. Note:Michigan State is 0-9 UNDER L/9 times as a dog coming off a tilt  where they scored less than 27 points going under by an average of -18.2 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Texas State Bobcats are uptrending in power rankings and  coming off a impressive upset of Arkansas State. Texas State also came very close to upsetting  Boston College earlier in this season  and took UTSA into double-overtime. Meanwhile Coastal Carolina despite of their high ranking are now a team that could feel some pressure and now in a huge emotional letdown spot after beating App State last time out will be vulnerable making getting points with this dangerous underdog a viable option.Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and have covered 5 straight games overall.

Play on Texas State to cover 

The Akron  Zips look to be in big trouble here today despite of showing off a explosive offense. The Zips real issues though are on the defensive side of the ball where they rank 124th in the nation against the run allowing an average of 234 ypg. Today against a Buffalo side that has a super star RB in Jaret Patterson who is off a 301 yard output last time out the Zips are not viable underdogs, and being over rated. Considering the Bulls were upset by Akron last season Im betting they will be wide awake for the revenger and ready to be merciless in their venture. Note: buffalo has cashed 6 of the L/7 when they have revenge in this series. 

CFB  Home favorites (BUFFALO) - excellent offensive team (440  or more YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 65-24 L/28 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

CFB Home favorites (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by just under 27 ppl.

Leipold is 8-0 ATS  in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play as the coach of BUFFALO with the average ppg diff clicking in at 8.6 ppg. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

Stanford has started their season slowly, but Im betting on them getting on track here vs the California Bears here today in PAC 12 action. Note: The Stanford Cardinal own a solid  9-1 SU record in this  series , including  a 5-0 SUATS run when playing on the road at Berkeley. The lone loss in this series came last time these teams met and now I expect revenge to be in play. I know Stanford has failed to cover or win 6 straight times going back to last season, but all good and bad runs must come to an end. Note: Stanford  HC Shaw is 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS after a loss as a favorite. ( They lost time out 35-32 at home vs Colorado). Two weeks now since that ugly effort and Shaw will have his team ready to operate functionally. 

Play on Stanford to cover 

Notre Dame’s is vulnerable here vs North Carolina. The Irish  defense ranks outside the top 70 in both pass and rush explosiveness which is  big trouble versus  a 5 star North Carolina offense that ranks top-25 in both and has scored 48 points or more their L/4 trips to the gridiron at home. 

UNC HC Mack Brown 12-6 AT L/18 as a conference home dog , including 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog of 6 or less points.

North Carolina. - home team vs. the money line (N CAROLINA) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 29-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team (N CAROLINA) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 28-6 ATS L/28 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NOTRE DAME) - after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Play on North Carolina to cover 

 Iowa State according to my power rankings are right up there with the Sooners a side that they beat already this season in another marquee big 12 battle . HC  Campbell’  is  23-6 ATS  as a conference underdog, including 10-0 ATS against opposition coming off consecutive wins and looks like a viable option here this afternoon, Meanwhile, Texas just does not look consistent this season, while HC Tom Herman looks like a coach in jeopardy of losing his job , which does not play well in a dressing room which will reflect itself onto the field. Herman as a conference favorite, including an ugly  5-16 ATS  home record . 

Play on Iowa State to cover 

This one is simple for me. No way does New Mexico deserve to be road favs here . Remember this is a team that has lost 11 straight road games, and dont deserve this kind of respect. No not even against a struggling Utah State side that does have an advantage of being off a bye week, and now lead by a new HC Maile who was also a captain of this Aggies team in the early part of the century. He will have the respect of his team, and Im betting they play hard here today and that they wont go down without a fight and get us the cover. 
NEW MEXICO is 0-6 ATS ( when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Cfb Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 39-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah State to cover 

Boise State is missing some players because of covid but the key ingredients to the team are still intact and considering a recent embarrassing loss to BYU that still stings Im betting we see this team wide awake and ready to compete in a big way vs a Hawaii side, that just does not look as cohesive as some recent incarnations of the program. HAWAII is 0-7 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Boise state is 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 meetings in this series. 

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (HAWAII) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 4-25 ATS L/28 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking at 22 ppg. 

Play on Boise State 

 Utah opens at home to night against USC. It must be noted that CFB teams in  Game One of the season are 13-3 SU   versus opposition playing their third game of the season, including 8-0 SUATS in the last eight dating back 30 seasons. Considering the Trojans had to come from behind in both their first two games, its become evident to me there are some hiccups in their flow. Also exerting that kind of energy will now have them in a let down spot. With Utah in revenge mode for a 30-23 loss last season, Im betting we see them very motivated . Utah is 4-1 ATS L/5 in revenge mode. UTAH is 8-1 ATS  in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. USC is 4-13 ATS  off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992. 

Utah is 14-1 SU in home openers and 13-2 SU in season openers with HC Whittingham at the helm. 

Utah to cover 

Iowa State is a solid team but this is a never say die Wildcats team that despite of some covid issues  is chalk full of physical players who play smash mouth  football and considering  KSU is 11-1 SU in this series Ill be recommending we take the points here today. 

 IOWA ST is 0-6 ATS  in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.

KSU head coach Chris Klieman getting points as he is 9-3 ATS as a dog in Big 12 games, including 5-0 ATS when getting 7 or more points.Kansas State is also 12-0 ATS  as a dog of more than seven points coming off a loss. 

CFB Road underdogs (KANSAS ST) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-11 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Kansas State to cover 

This is not one of Sabans strongest teams , as is evident by currently ranking 49th  in the nation in Total Defense.  With  Next week, seeing Alabama  ready to play their  holiday fare: the Iron Bowl, Nov. 28, vs. Auburn, they could easily find themselves not focused here and what Im calling a look ahead situation. Meanwhile,   Kentuckys D, must be respected  and are more than capable of slowing down Alabama's vaunted offense. 

KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS  in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game over the last 3 season. Stoops is 7-0 ATS  in road games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of KENTUCKY.

Kentucky is 12-0 ATS /10-2 SU L/12  off a win as a favorite which was the case vs Vanderbilt last time out. 

Take the points with Kentucky 

These teams come in with identical 4-4 records and Im betting that the final score will be indicative of their current records and closely contested with the more rested team at home Pittsburgh having the edge getting points. VTech has really played some very tough physical games recently against Liberty and Miami by 3 points and 1 point respectively. Considering the  Panthers  will be in revenge mode for a  28-0  kick to the helmet last season  you can bet they will be primed and read to deliver some pay pack. . Pittsburgh has owned this series for their betting backers at home going   7-0 ATS .

VIRGINIA TECH is 2-11 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56. 

CFB road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more  PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 3-22 ATS L/28 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

Both teams have viable offenses and viable defenses and according to my projections and look evenly matched but with Nevada having home field advantage (even with no fans)  the wrong team is favored. Nevada has won the last two meetings in this series and deserve respect here as underdogs. 

Norvell is 8-1 ATS  in home games after playing 2 straight conference games as the coach of NEVADA. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more  YPR) against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 9-21 SU L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Nevada to cover 

Cincinnati continues to roll and have beaten down most of their opponents with little empathy. That non stop flow of action however, may not benefit them in the long term and especially here today against a very tough opponent in UCF.  The  Knights lost 27-24 as 3.5-point favorites @ Cincinnati last season. Actually that tilt now gives me alot of confidence when backing Central Florida here today as UCF  outyarded the Bearcats 423- 343 in that game. Considering the Knights   are  22-2 SU at home the last four seasons it wont come as a surprise to me if they find a way to pull of the SU upset. 

Heupel is 8-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of UCF. (The Knights beat Temple 38-13 last time out)

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) - off a home win, with 16 total starters returning are 31-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UCF to cover 

This time, for the first time in program history, the No. 9 Hoosiers (4-0 Big Ten) will participate in a regular-season, top-10 matchup when they play No. 3 Ohio State (3-0) with first place at stake in the East Division. The lines-makers obviously dont think that the Hoosiers are for real, and  they most probably cannot handle the pressure. But from a numbers standpoint I have to take a contrarian view and grab the points with the Hoosiers.

INDIANA is 6-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.Allen is 6-0 ATS off a road win against a conference rival as the coach of INDIANA.

Play on Indiana to cover 

 Minnesota suffered a 35-7 loss  to Iowa a week ago and now look to rebound vs a Purdue side that continues to be without their their top WR  Rondale Moore and could be without their QB Aidan O Connell.  It might not seem like it but Minnesota is a talented team that won 11 games last season, with plenty of experience, and Im betting they right their sinking ship this week. The key will be based around not making as many mistakes as they have made early this season, and  for  Mohamed Ibrahim who leads the nation  in rushing yards per game at 178.8 to be  the catalyst  against a Purdue side off a heart breaking , loss last week ,  and now on  a short-week road spot . 

Minnesota is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a double-digit loss at home.The Golden Gophers are 18-4-4 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.

Minnesota to cover 

Tulsa has had three weekends in which a game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. This week, the Golden Hurricane return to action just five days after a 28-24 victory against then-No. 19 SMU and will now be in a letdown state after making a strong comeback in a physical affair. Meanwhile,Tulane is off a  38-12 victory Saturday against Army, and are surging via 3 straight victories and deserve respect here as underdogs. Tulane is also a bankroll expanding  5-0 ATS run while staunchly stopping  its last three opponents  and holding them to just 12 PPG.Tulane has defeated Tulsa each of the last three seasons, and this could be another rinse and repeat situation , which makes getting points a solid proposition.TULSA is 1-10 ATS  in home games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.Fritz is 8-0 ATS   after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better in all games he has coached since 1992. HC Philip is 4-13 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of TULSA.

Play on Tulane to cover 

Ball State was handed a  38-31 defeat vs Miami  O took  a hard fought win by a  38-31 count over Eastern Michigan. Their biggest problem is the Cardinals  defense, and after N.Illinois proved they can push some effective offensive flow vs Buffalo putting 30 points on the board, in ther first game another positive output makes them viable opponents again here tonight. 

Neu is 4-16 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALL ST.

N ILLINOIS is 45-23 ATS as a road underdog since 1992. 

N ILLINOIS is 25-11 ATS  in road games in November games since 1992.BALL ST is 13-28 ATS in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. 

N ILLINOIS is 9-2 SU/ATS BALL ST since 1992. 

Northern Illinois to cover 

After a huge comeback last time out against Toledo coming back with 2 TDS late in the game to win 41-38 will now have Western Michigan in a emotional  letdown situation. This negative energy flow situation does not bode well for them against Central Michigans very physical D, that leads the MAC . The Chips third-down stops have been key so far, allowing opponents only six conversions in 26 attempts.

C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS  in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (W MICHIGAN) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  83% conversion rate.

CFB Home favorites (C MICHIGAN) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a good team (outgain opp. by 50-100 YPG), after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

 Western Michigan made a huge comeback last time out vs Toledo erasing  2 TD's in 28 seconds at the end of the game to win 41-38.  Now Toledo in a letdown spot will take time to get going, and considering Eastern Michigan ability to hang tough in most of their MAC games over the last few seasons I feel confident getting points. 

TOLEDO is 0-7 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.TOLEDO is 0-6 ATS  in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.Candle is 0-7 ATS   in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored as the coach of TOLEDO.Creighton is 10-1 ATS off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival as the coach of E MICHIGAN. (Eastern Michigan  is off to a  0-2 start with losses by 7 points or less at Ball State and Kent State.)

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover 

Akron did not win a game last season and went  1-11 ATS and started this season 0-1 SU but did cover  and are now big time DD underdogs here again. With a freshman QB at the helm of the offense , Im doubting things get much better in a shortened season for the Flashes, and as far as tonight goes, I expect they will have their proverbial butts handed to them, via the arm of QB Justin Crum who is averaging 8.8 yards per pass.

 CFB home team (KENT ST) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 61-25 ATS L/28 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kent State to cover 

Kent State has no problem pouring it on and showing very little empathy for their opponents as was evident last week as Juston Crump (8.8 yards per play) threw for a TD with less than 2 min left on the clock in what was already a lopsided event 62-24 event that they won. Im betting on Arkron lighting up the board again vs a Akron secondary allowed 262 yards on just 16 attempts last week. Im also betting on Akron to do just enough damage here to help this contest eclipse the total. 

CFB  teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (KENT ST) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against a poor team (outgained by 50-100 YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 26-6 OVER L/28 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

This Totals selection is based on my projections that estimate a total combined score of 56 points goin on the board which use pace success rate and plays per success rate . With a FG edge Im recommending we take an under hedge. 

HC Loeffler L/14 games in all lined games as the coach of BOWLING GREEN has seen a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BUFFALO) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored are 83-39 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Beavers started out their season with a loss, but it must be noted that Oregon State is   6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. and  are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Having a game under their proverbial belts vs a rusty  Huskies side that  are playing their opener after last weekend's game at Cal was canceled due to Covid problems with the Bears. Advantage on the line = Beavers.

Note: Oregon States QB Tristan Gebbia was 34 of 49 for 329 yards and a TD in that opening loss to Washington State. This kid looks special and getting points with a guy like this is a solid long term situation, 
 

Beavers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Washington. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Oregon State to cover 

It was ugly last week when Indiana beat Michigan for the first time in 23 trys. Now Harbaugh and company are taking a shit kicking from the media who are dumping all over him. Harbaugh is a competitor and Michigan is a proud football program with quality players , some of which are looking forward to a NFL career and that kind of embarrassing effort does not sit well, and now Im betting on a monumental bounce back situation . With that said, Im recommending we take the points and take advantage of recency bias. Hey Wisconsin is a fine team, but this spread seems like its just a tad high and possibly misplaced when looking at the bigger picture. 

Michigan is 23-1 SU at home in game 4s , including 5-0 SUATS with HC  Harbaugh at the helm.  

Badgers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Play on Michigan to cover 

 UCF has Cincinnati up on deck for next week, and could easily find themselves in a look ahead situation.  Considering UCFs  defense ranks 105th in the country  allowing an average  474 yards per game  and also ranking 74th in points allowed at 31.3 per game it is feasible that Temple can put enough points on the board to provide us with a cover . I know that Temple did not look good last time out in a loss, but  are rested off a bye week, and well primed/rested to perform more respectably today. 

Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Owls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Owls are 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.Owls are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.Owls are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 conference game.

Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Knights are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on Temple to cover 

Ole Miss totaled more than 600 yards for the third time this season and sophomore quarterback Matt Corral earned both Davey O'Brien National Quarterback of the Week and Walter Camp National Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 31 of 34 passes and throwing six touchdown passes without an interception. Ole Miss is ranked fifth nationally in total offense (541.0 yards per game) and is averaging 38.0 points per game. I know they take on a team with a similar 2-4 record but these two sides in their current form could not be farther apart. 

 SEC home team like Ole Miss that scored 38-plus points in its last game if they are seeking triple revenge-exact against a conference opponent are 21-2 ATS L/30 seasons.

Play on Ole Miss to cover  

The 4-3 Wolfpack still have bowl aspirations and will  now be very motivated   against a flawed FSU side that is off  48-16 loss  to Louisville and 41-17 smash down  vs  Pittsburgh . With that said,  Im betting another behind the wood shed beating is on the agenda for the Seminoles. Note: NC State loss a hard fought game last time out to Miami FL, NC State is 11-0 ATS/SU  as a favorite of more than three points coming off a home loss with the average margin of victory coming by 30.3 ppg with every game easily covering this offered number by the .lines-makers. 

The Seminoles are 0-3 on road, with the closest result a 42-26 outcome at undefeated Notre Dame on Oct. 10.

Play on NC State to cover 

Tulsa is the undefeated team in AAC play, along with Cincy but Im betting that party comes to an end here vs the Mustangs.  SMU is one of only 17 teams in FBS to average at least 7.0 yards per play. It also ranks in the top 25 in a alot of categories including Total Yards Per Game (9th)/Total Points Per Game (15th)/Passing Yards Per Attempt (15th)/Completion Percentage (24th). I know D, wins championships, but I also know getting to a championship games means you need to score, and today that will be key to a SMU win  which is their ability to put mucho points on the board in bunches. 

Play on SMU to cover 

San Diego State,  were upset 28- 17, as a 10-point underdog last time as they fell asleep at the proverbial wheel after taking a lead. Now frustrated and ready for redemption they take on a Hawaii side  off a win. Note: Hawaii is just  2-8 ATS as double-digit conference underdogs and 3-14 ATS L/17 against opposition coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-10 ATS when Hawaii is coming into a tilt off victory.  With that said, look for the Aztecs top tier D, that has allowed 223 ypg to dominant in bounce back mode. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

 USC needed two touchdowns in the final three minutes,  and a successful onside kick, to sneak past Arizona State 28-27 on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Trojans' four turnovers and three failed fourth-down tries  sort of told the tale of this game, but now with a game under their belt Im betting their ability to not lose the ball will improve as will their D and overall play. Considering this is Arizonas first game, Im betting the Wildcats D, will be more acclimated to in game conditions than the offense that will exhibit rust and also solid competition to contend wit, this hindering their flow. . This Im betting results in a combined score that that stays on the low side of the total. 

My projections estimate that we have value with a under wager in a game I have pegged at 63 on the total. 

Under is 29-14-1 in Trojans last 44 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

USC is 0-11 L/11 UNDER  as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they trailed at halftime. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona.

Play UNDER

Notre Dame   enters this tilt off a hard fought big time win in OT vs Clemson last week and will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a tough Boston College side that is not an easy out and that also played Clemson tough when they met earlier this season. 

The Irish  are on an 0-4 ATS run as DD road favs. Meanwhile,  Boston College is  8-0 ATS L/8  as a home dog of 15 or fewer points.  

Play Boston College to cover 

Stanford lost to Oregon by a 35-14 count in their opener but the game  was much closer  than the final score might indicate as they Cards were only out-yarded by 496-413. Meanwhile, Colorado came out swinging in their opener and beat UCLA 48-42 in a game that exposed their defence for me leading into this game. With that said Ill back Stanford here , to take advantage of the Buffs porous D, and back HC David Shaw who is 9-0 SU in home openers, with the  average  margin of  victory coming by 24 PPG to come out on top and get the cover. 

Stanford to cover 

Indiana is off ending a  23-game series losing streak to Michigan  with a  38-21 victory  against  Michigan. You can see the emotion in that game from the Hoosiers and the celebrations afterwards. But now their in a big time emotional letdown situation that makes them susceptible to being upset. Especially with Ohio State on board which also creates a look ahead situation. Hey I know Michigan state looked horrible last time out in a DD loss, but Im betting they bring out some magic here today and get us a cover in a place where they have won 14 of the L/15 meetings in this series SU. 

Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

Armys offense is churning out  5.5 yards per carry in their games against FBS opponents and today Im betting that attack will remain in top gear against a Tulane run unit that has been stringent , but has yet to face a dangerous  triple option. Army is 39th in the country in rushing success and sixth in power success this season. On  the flipside Black Knight run D, is one of the top units in the nation allowing just 3.4 ypc ranking sixth nationally in defensive rushing success. Tulane can move the chains on the ground, but this kind of smash mouth stopping unit can make opponents dizzy. Advantage Army.

Army to cover 

East Carolina  QB Ahlers is on a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception run and put together his best career game against a Tulsa defense that must be considered stringent. With that said Im betting he is capable of orchestrating consistent drives and  putting points up on the board today vs a staunch Cincinnati D. Considering the Bearcats have UCF on board we could easily see them in a look ahead situation and if in the lead by a big enough margin may take the pedal of metal  and go into stay healthy mode , which opens up the door for a Pirates back door cover.  Either way Im projecting that 4 TDs is just a tad high here and the value resides with taking points.Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Bearcats are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on East Carolina to cover 

Iowa after smashing Michigan State  49-7 last week take recency bias into this game as road chalk, something i really don't think they deserve. After such a big output by Ferentz's group I can see them down trending here vs a home dog in Minnesota that must not be underestimated. 

The Golden Gophers are 10-5 ATS  L/15 as conference home dogs, including 7-1 ATS against opposition  coming off a SUATS victory like Iowa. Golden Gophers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  

Play on Minnesota to cover 

BYU smashed Boise State at home on the Blue carpet in embarrassing fashion last time out, their worst defeat since a 64-19 blowout by in state rivals Idaho back  in 1996. Broncos, seemed to just lose their drive to compete, when starter Hank Bachmeier was ruled out pregame and backup Jack Sears left very early in the game. Everything imploded from there, and now after being throttled and the laughing stock of Mountain West for a week, Im betting HC Harsin will have his squad ready to rebound in a big way here this week, as his QB situation looks to be back to normal.  Note: Boise State is  12-2 SU/ 11-3 ATS off a defeat  where  they allowed more than 36 points. 

Wyoming, which for a long time has seen a lack of a consistent aerial attack, had 10 passes of at least 15 yards last Thursday night in a loss to the Rams and Im betting will get torched here this evening.Colorado State has also been one of the  worst teams in College Football in coverage and defensive finishing drives and should be ripe to be smashed here vs an angry redemption minded group of Broncos who will not take the pedal off the medal til the very end in this spot. 

I know this is the Broncos 3rd game in 13 days, but these young guys are well conditioned and Boise State has never lost a Thursday night game in the history of the program, and tonight Im betting it comes by more than this posted line. 

Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Boise State to cover