When these teams went head to head this season is result in a 17-14 final score favoring the Buckeyes  in Columbus . Notre Dame looked every bit as good as the home side with the totals yards coming in at 356-351 for Ohio State. Im not sold on the Buckeyes being this much better than the Irish, and after watching them escape their play off games with home run type plays that turned the tides of their tilts , it left me looking a their overall work as average at best. What Im saying here is that Im betting this is just to many points to lay with the Buckeyes and for the hard working and positive team chemistry of Freemans side to be the difference maker today. Note: Ohios States QB Will Howard looked vulnerable  three physically dominating  defenses he faced this year in Michigan, Texas  and Penn State. s key trend: Notre Dame is 14-0-1 ATS in its last 15 games revenging a loss. 

Play on Notre Dame to cover

The public really seems to like the over here as the overall  market according to the amount of bets made  shows a majority of betters on this being a higher scoring affair, but in contrarian fashion I will go against the public as I project a lower scoring affair that stays on the low side of the offering. In the L/12 national championship games the public has yet to cash with their assumptions going 0-11-1. Also despite of the public being on the over, the total has gone down from the opener of 46.5 to 45.5 which means smart money and not the public is moving this line.

Play under

 These teams from a talent perspective are fairly evenly matched but this game is being played in the State of Texas which is of obvious importance when it comes to crowd presence. The Longhorns are not often dogs of late and the last two times they were listed as underdogs they covered both times vs Alabama. Key here is Ohio States QB Will Howard who did not look cohesive  against the two strong defenses he faced this season in Michigan and Penn State. Texas physicality up front  on the defensive line is going to give Howard problems. 

TEXAS is on a 13-2 ATS run against top tier  shutdown defenses allowing 5.9 yards per pass attempt or less.

Ohio State is just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS versus the SEC in bowl games since 1993 and TEXAS has won three straight bowl games outright versus Big Ten opposition. 

Play on Texas to cover

Notre Dames offense stuttered vs Georgia despite of getting the victory and had 244 total yards and just 90 passing yards. and now  with star RB Love playing at less than 100% problems are brewing .  QB  Leonard  will not have play action on his side, and even if he did his downfield cogs are an inconsistent issue anyway. It must be noted that entering this season the Notre Dame  offensive line was a problem point and against this big physically imposing Penn State D, moving the chains once again looks like it will be a problem. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Penn State offense will also have tough sledding here vs Notre Dames 5th ranked D.  Penn State games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game have gone 5-0 since 2023 with the combined average ppg clicking in at 32.6 ppg. Penn State generated just 18.4 ppg.

These are two top-10 defenses by yards per play and Im betting both sides will not move the chains with impunity and instead a ground and pound type of affair will key this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

Play on the under

Both these teams are missing players on both sides of the ball,  but both still run aggressive offense schemes,  and both have lackluster defensive talent. With that said, Im betting on whatever personal is on the field alot of points will go on the board in what will highly likely be an  offensive slugfest. It must be noted that despite of missing their top QB North Texas enters this game  10th in yards per play and will once again attack with furor. The Mean Green have no choice but to score in bunches as their defense is atrocious. The same holds true with Texas State as in their L/3 games of the season averaged 49 ppg and on defense allowed 31 points per game. 

North Texas games in non-conference games are 11-2 OVER L/13 overall with a combined average of 75.7 ppg scored.

The game between North Texas and Texas State is set for clear skies with temperatures around 60°F. Light east-southeast winds at 4.5 mph will have minimal impact on play. Expect a fast-paced game with no precipitation or humidity concerns, ideal conditions for both passing and scoring opportunities.

Play over

LATE STEAM 

Notre Dames offense has looked stagnant at times this year, and very explosive other times, but is for certain their opponents today Georgia has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 129.3 yards per game vs opposing rush offenses season ranking eighth in opponent EPA per rush and 24th in defensive success rate against the run, which rings alarm bells for a Irish offense that will be out to establish the run( ND ran the ball more than 55% of the time this season). On the flip-side, the Notre Dame's defense ranked top-five nationally in points allowed per game (13.8) and yards allowed per play (4.5) . So Im betting backup Gunner Stockton despite of his good qualities at quarterback, is an average at best passer and  will have issues  with one of the nation's best pass defenses and as the games progresses like expect the Dawgs to run the ball alot more .With that said Im betting on a defense-dominant, ground-and-pound kind of tilt that results in a lower scoring affair. 

Play on the under

The Ducks,  beat the Buckeyes by one point earlier this season, but Ohio state shot themselves in the foot and turned the ball over twice  in that game and still almost stole the game in a hostile road environment . It must be noted that this Ohio State program has won 13 of the L/20 SU vs undefeated sides and have the pedigree to win out here again today. Note: Bowl sides on extended rest  like Oregon are 0-6 SU against  unrested bowl teams like Ohio State ( just dominated Tennessee last week)  Also sides out looking for  revenge in bowl game featuring same conference rivals are 6-0 ATS dating back 34 seasons. Also in the first game Ohio States D, did not look good, and have been accused of just going through the motions at time but this is. a very talented unit top to bottom- and enter  this game as the best unit in the country in EPA per play allowed. Today Oregons one key weakness their Defense will be the difference maker especially their 60th ranked in rush success rate against, which Im betting gets run over. in a big way That one bad  game against Michigan really has had the public down on Ohio State, but now with a huge chip on their shoulders look for this talent heavy group to get the job done here at under a FG or less. 

CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game are 27-63 since the 2015 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Ohio State to cover

Boise State enters this game against Penn State ranked  in at No 9 in the poll and N.4 in the bracket,  and the  Nittany Lions are the 6th seed  and  are DD favorites. Despite of having respect for Franklin and company Im betting this line is based more on public and program perceptions than viable talent on the ground. It must be noted that HC . Franklin is 3-19 SU vs.  Top 10 sides in his career. He beats the lower level teams like a drum but when he goes up against the big boys he fumbles almost every time and no the vs SMU was not a big boy victroy. I know the Mountain West is not the Big 10, but when Boise State ventured out of its conference, against a big time team, they looked very good, The Broncos in their close 37-34 count loss  to the Ducks of  Oregon as 17.5-point dogs easily covering the spread solidified for me their prowess..It must also be noted that Mountain West programs of 8 points or more dogs in the post season are 10-2 ATS L/10 and Boise itself is 5-1 SUATS this season vs fellow Bowlers and won the stats battles in 5 of those tilts. Im betting on Heisman runner-up  RB Ashton Jeanty to once again turn heads and be the difference maker today in what Im betting will be a lot closer game than the linesmakers and much of the public expect. ( The Broncos recorded  6.7 yards per carry and Jeanty had 25 carries for 192 yards in the game against Oregon.) Rinse and repeat vs Penn State on todays agenda behind some equally slick moves from HC Spencer Danielson)

Boise State vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. are 6-0 ATS datimng back to last season.Boise State versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6.25 or more yards/play are 5-0 ATS dating back to last season.

Play on Boise State to cover

Baylor is essentially fully intact entering this Bowl game with very few portal transfers which tells a story of a cohesive happy team, that are headed in the same direction and on the same page. Meanwhile, LSU top gun QB Garrett Nussmeier wont have many top tier targets today as his top offensive weapons have opted out or in the transfer portal and he will also be playing behind a patchwork offensive line with only one starter C DJ Chester playing. Life could easily get miserable for Nussmeier  here today vs Baylor.  Also as the season drew to a close the Bears looked amazing , honestly they looked capable of some big things going forward as they finished on a  6-0 SUATS and superior stats run and get my support here today.

Baylor to cover

I know Louisville QB Tyler Shough won’t play but he will be backed by a capable QB senior Harrison Bailey who completed 100% of his 8 passes this season.Bailey also will have a ton of play action on his side with  1,000-yard rusher  Isaac Brown, ( 1,074 yards on  147 carries) . I expect the Louisville     big-play offense that ranks  third in the nation in yards per play at 6.88  will not skip a beat vs a inconsistent Washington D that played much worse away from home.  On the flipside QB  Demond Williams Jr. will get the call at QB for the Huskies ( completed 77% of his passes and had a 4/0 TD/INT Ratio. ) and he is expected to be backed by Jonah Coleman who record 1,000 plus yards. Im beting both offenses with a eye on the future will open up their playbooks here, and give us alot more offensive action the totals line indicates. Note:Game time weather for Louisville vs. Washington looks favorable. Expect a warm day at 65°F with minimal cloud cover and no precipitation. Light winds from the west-southwest may have a minor influence on passing and kicking but shouldn't disrupt offensive play enough to make a difference. Overall, ideal conditions for a higher scoring matchup!

Play over

This Totals  line keeps moving down, but rightly so. as both teams  are known for their defensive prowess, plus  key offensive weapons will not play today, as Missouris star WR Luther Burden is out, and Iowas future NFL RB Kaleb Johnson opting out for the draft. Also Iowa has quarterbacks Cade McNamara and Marco Lainez in the transfer portal, With  that said, Im betting on a grinding  affair, that stays on the low side of the Total. The under is  4-0 in the four non-conference games that Missouri has played. 

Iowa last 6 games as an underdog have seen a combined score of 27.6 ppg scored.Iowa games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points have seen a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored dating back to 2023 season spanning a 9 game sample size,

Play under

BYU Top 20 defense has the edge here going against an explosive  Sanders-led passing attack, which ranks  ranks  4th in the nation. (averaging 327.2 YPG). There are alot of future NFLers here for the Buffs, but thats not a prerequisite for winning Bowl games. It must be noted that the Cougars  held three sides to season-low yardage, including in two of the last four trips to the gird-ion. Offenses are fun to watch but defneses are  not fun to face head on , and Im betting the Buffalos get a ugly hand-full of gladiator dirt that Im betting blind their proverbial progress throughout this. game.  Also BYU has the guns to get some scores here today in what could easily be a outright victory. Kalani Sitake is 16-7 ATS as a pup  vs opposition  with a win % of better than .666 .  Note: Colorado owns a  29th ranked  in EPA per play (0.058) and BYU is 34th (0.049).  Buffs averaged 34.5 points per game this year while the Mormons scored 30.8 ppg. CFB Neutral field favorites - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 7-28 ATS since 2015.

Both these teams are misses pieces but Im betting Colorado State duel threat QB  Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi will do damage here today  against this RedHawks secondary. that despite being good against the pass this season,  will be without key  defender  Strader and couple other starting defensive backs wont play either.  On the flipside, as the Rams were just 107th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.057) this season, and with that said,  Miami O Im betting reciprocates with some offensive  damage of their own in game with a total that is very beatable.

CFB teams like Colorado State/ Miami O where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG differential.) are 36-2 OVER since 2020 with a combined average of 51,8 ppg scored.

Play over

Texas A&M is getting to much respect here in bowl game vs USC. The Aggies are a undisciplined side, that finished No. 122 in Penalties Per Game this season and Im betting that will be their demise today from a ATS standpoint. The Aggies are  3-6 against the spread as the favorite this season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are 1-4 in their last five games as chalk.Meanwhile, the  USC Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.The Texas A&M Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten road games.

Key Trend:6-6 bowl teams like the Trojans coming off a pair of SUATS losses are 12-3 SU and 14-1 ATS with a scoring defense that allows 25 or less points per game . ( On the season, USC’s defense ranks 37th nationally, giving up 23.5 points per game)

Play on USC to cover

 Georgia Tech averaged 29.1 points per game this season on offense while Vanderbilt averaged 26.8 points per game.  The Techsters are 14th in the nation in EPA per play (0.084) while the Commodores  are 24th (0.063).  On the defensive side of the ball Georgia Tech is ranked  51st in EPA per play allowed (-0.022) and Vanderbilt is ranked  67th (-0.001). The offenses are obviously the strong points for both sides, and despite of absences from both sides, the offenses Im betting will shine , despite of the chance of their being some light drizzle or rain. 

The Over is 3-1 in the 4 games Georgia Tech has played against SEC opponents with  HC Key at the helm , and  4-0 OVER  in the four games the team has played against defenses that allow at least 8 or more  passing yards per attempt. Georgia Tech games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or more are 6-0 OVER since 2023 with a combined average of 64.7 ppg scored. .Meanwhile, The Over is 11-1 UNDER  in the 12 non-conference games the Commodores have played under Lea.Vanderbilt games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 9-1 OVER L/10 with a combined average of 58.5 ppg scored.

CFB teams  like Georgia Tech where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two average teams (+/- 5 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games are 139-79 OVER since 1992 for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 56.1 ppg.

Play over

Transfer portal and NFL draft readiness mayhem has hit the Sooners. but this  might be a good thing for the Sooners as new blood might get things revving in the right direction faster. I also like the fact that  freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr already has some experience in tough situations and that Navy has serious problems against opposing run games which Im betting the Sooners implement with power. This season despite of all  the crap slung at the Sooners for poor play one thing they did better than most was zone /read and counter behind a top-five defense in Rushing Success Rate. I know alot of sharps love Navy, but Im going rogue here, as Oklahoma with more than 3 weeks to prepare for this tilt and big chips on their shoulders should be more than ready to grab the cash today. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover

The Red Wolves are here in. a Bowl game despite of owning the worst D in the Sun Belt for yards allowed.Red Wolves’ defense, which allowed 32.3 points per game and 460.7 yards per game  ranked sixth-to-worst in FBS. However their  offense is balanced and can strike quickly behind QB Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 2,562 yards and 14 touchdowns this season abd RB Zak Wallace, who’s been a scoring machine with 622 rushing yards and 10 TDs.Note: Raynor threw for six touchdowns and only one pick over the last two games entering the tilt. I know Bowling Green has a strong D, allowing just over 20 ppg, but Red Wolves according to my projections will eclipse that mark and get into the mid to 20s ( 24-27) and on the flips side give up more than 30 plus points here (***Bowling Green has  scored at least 31 points in three of its last five games) . Bottom line in a game to close to call on the spread, the total looks be a strong bankroll expanding investment opportunity.  - CFB teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 96-48 OVER since 2020 with a combined average score of 58.2 ppg scored.

Play over

Rutgers offense has had problems scoring all season long, and  like to drag things out by grinding it out in the trenches and eating up clock time. I just dont think they can eat enough clock up enough time to not to get beaten up on today by a team thats better than them on both sides of the ball. Rutgers defensive coordinator is now on his way to UMass and a team , and thats not a good omen for a team already allowing 5.9 ypp. Note:  Chris Klieman versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play is 12-2 ATS.  The Wildcats are 15th in EPA per play recording. a (0.082) mark, and Rutgers  are  43rd (0.034). The Wildcats  rank 35th in the nation in EPA per play allowed  at (-0.049), while Rutgers ranks 71st (0.006). Everything points to a conclusive Kansas state win even though there will be some players missing from a couple of offensive positions.   Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 38-11 ATS since 2011 for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover

This may seem like a high total, and it is,  but its melted up this way for a reason. HC Niumatalolo when coming over from Navy decided to change the offense up and not go with a triple option offense , and instead allowed new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann to implement a run and shoot attack . He did it well, and here against a sometimes lackluster South Florida D that allowed  5.8 YPP in AAC action , Im betting San Jose State will do some series damage. Note:San Jose State throws the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation (64%) air attack. Yes, I know star WR Nich Nash will not play for the Spartans today as he awaits to the NFL draft but this allows WR  Justin Lockhart  who is a college star on the rise to get alot of looks today. On the flipside, Im also betting on the Bulls behind  Archie or Brown to  also do a fair amount of damage  offensively as  the  Spartans had problems  stopping explosiveness in passing downs and  finished the season 121st in third-down defense. Im also betting on the Bulls ground game  to find alot of holes vs a San Jose State using inside zone as the  Spartans D finished  last in  the country in Line Yards and Stuff Rate against one of the softest schedules in the nation. Get ready for some early New Yeats fireworks on paradise Island this Christmas eve. 

Play over

Northern Illinois since upsetting Notre Dame earlier this season, have not done much and do not really deserve to be favorites by this margin today. It must be noted that Fresno State 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last five bowl games .Also the  dog  is 16-5 ATS in Bulldogs bowl games. The Huskies are  just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS last eight bowl games. Bottom line: Both starting QBs are not playing today and numerous players are moving through the transport portal. In the end this selection is based on the program from the better conference, and that has the superior overall talent. Fresno State in away or neutral games in non-conference games. are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Fresno State to cover

 UTSA’s defense was horrendous  this season and even if Coastal Carolinas QB Hudson does not play , Im still expecting them to put some points on the board as UTSA  allowed 5.7 yards per play this season, and more than  six yards per play in November. This team allowed 26 passing touchdowns allowed ranking them  123rd in the country.  On the flipside, UTSA’s offense went bonkers towards the tail end of the season, behind their pedigree QB McCown who  threw for 1,860 yards in his L/6  tilts to the gridiron while  rushing for 213 over his final three. He wont be slowed by this pedestrian Coastal Carolina D. Coastal Carolina games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 are 10-2 OVER with a combined average of 66.4 ppg scored. UTSA games in all games are 8-1 OVER with 65.7 ppg scored.

Play over

The Buckeyes are in a letdown situation after getting smashed by Michigan last time out. It must be noted that Ohio State is just  4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS after a SU  loss vs   the Wolverines. I know Ohio State can move the ball, but Tennessee own a formidable stopping gorup and a top-notch defensive line with just 3.28 yards per carry allowed in conference games and 21 sacks in eight games. Im betting the Vols D, is the difference maker , and us taking the points here a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion.  Note: the Vols are a bankroll expanding 8-1 SUATS vs. .750 or better non-conference opp dating back 8 seasons and  6-1 SU in the last seven bowl games and vs the Big 10, are  8-2 SU  in bowl tilts. 

Play on Tennessee to cover

I know there are alot of trends that support Dabo and company, but what stands out to me is the way SMU moved the ball against them in the 2nd half last time out, and the way Georgia stepped all over Clemson earlier this season. Texas showed they are every bit as good as Georgia in a heart breaking loss to them late in the season, and with that said Im Im betting the Longhorns superior overall talent will prevail in a big way here today much like Georgia operated against Clemson in a DD beatdown. CFB Road underdogs of +315 or higher vs. the money line - with a good offense - averaging 5.8 or more yards/play, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 1-29 since 2020 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -17.7. Note: Steve Sarkisian in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 is a perfect 6-0 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at +32.

Play on Texas to cover

Penn States D held opponents to season-low yardage five times this season, and here against an explosive SMU offense that is an important factor. Penn State’s defense is 8th in scoring defense allowing just 16.4 ppg  and 6th in yards allowed/game at 282.1.  Big Ten teams are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. ACC in bowl games and are  11-1 ITS this season, including 7-1 vs teams in Bowl tilts.  James Franklin after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game is 12-2 ATS L/14 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.9. SMU is  0-4 SUATS last four bowl games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today vs Penn State. 

Penn State to cover

Indiana according to my projections is being under rated here vs Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish in my humble opinion are also over rated especially on defense.The Fighting Irish from a historical perspective are  0-2 SUATS record vs. the Big 10 in bowl games since 2000 and since 1995,  are a baffling 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in bowls versus .666 or better sides  like the Hoosiers. Indianas  HC Cignetti 30-6 all time vs FBS sides and has the guns this season to stay close in this game and actually even pull off the upset. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS since 2020.

Play on Indiana to cover

Tulane will be playing with a backup QB and just lost to before a  horrendous performance  vs Army in the AAC championship game. Meanwhile, Florida is finally looking like a top tier SEC team. Alot has been made of the Tulane D, but as far Im concerned it over rated especially in the secondary and they have shown that lately. 

Florida has won five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.Tulane has lost each of its last three games in December.Florida has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Play on Florida 

This Ohio. program has done well in its last 10 bowl games going  8-2 ATS  and are 10-5 ATS, and 9-6 ITS vs. bowl teams last three seasons. and have allowed less than 300 yards in last six games overall going a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS. Meanwhile, Jacksonville States  HC   Rich Rodriguez is 2-9-1 ATS in bowl games. Biggest issue with this Jacksonville State side, is their defense as they have allowed 400 yard plus in 4 of their L/6 overall.Jacksonville State’s three best defensive players, as Zechariah Poyser (Miami), Reginald Hughes (Colorado), and Fred Perry (TBD) have all left the program so things could even get uglier today.  Sun Belt teams are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Cure Bowl appearances and with that said , Im fading the Gamecocks vs what my projections say is the superior side by a TD or more.  

Play on Ohio to cover

The Georgia Southern  Eagles enter this game with momentum having won three straight games , and  during the reg season have victories vs 4 Bowl teams  ( James Madison, Marshall, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina,) . The Eagles also were kind to their betting backers failing to cover only 3 times in 11 contests (8-3-1 ATS) .  They once again look like good bets vs a side ( Houston State) with a interim  HC and more than dozen players mostly on the defensive side of the ball out as they are  in the transfer portal as well as  their top RB  which helps a weak Eagles run D. Sam Houston ranks outside the top 100 in Pass and Rush Success Rate once again negating a sub par Georgia Southern D. Here against a  Eagles strong rush unit , the Bearkats also look vulnerable, as  they recorded one of the worst  Stuff Rates in the nation.The Bearkat secondary should also get lit up , as Georgia Southern had three wide receivers with at least 557 yards Note:. Sam Houston State finished the regular season 119th in yards per play on offense,  and just dont intimidate , their opposition even if their top gun is under center (Hunter Watson) and with a depleted D look like unviable underdogs.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover

James Madison starting QB Alonza Barnett III  who accounted for over 3000 yards of offense, and 33 TDs will miss this tilt.  The two backup QBs have  recorded  just two pass attempts in relief of him this season. JMU only had 5.34 YPP against conference foes and could struggle once again today moving the ball, even against a team like the Hilltoppers that struggled on D this season. Also the Hilltoppers have a lot of portal transfers and will be without Easton Messer WR. JMU has played a strong defense allowing just 4.73 ypg on D. With rain and windy conditions expected this game could end up being a grinding slow affair that stays on the low side of the totals offering. 

CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, in December games are 41-14 UNDER with a combined average of 45.6 ppg scored.

Play under 

Memphis will be primed to take down a power 5 team in this tilt vs West Virginia. The explosive Tigers offense (that ranked 20th in offensive plays with 871) and an average of 6 ypp will Im betting do damage here today. Meanwhile, West Virginia now with a interim coach may not be as not be as cohesive especially on D, as they have a  long list of transfer portal players on the move including key defender Josiah Trotter. It also must be noted that the Mountaineers gave up an average 40 plus points a game in their L/3 trips to the gridiron entering Bowl season.  Memphis gave up alot of points this season overal and in neutral or road games allowed more than 27 ppg. Im betting the Tigers do what they do best and score and the Mountaineers answer back with points of their own as the new interim HC Chad Scott  was the running back catch and offensive coordinator and should have that part of their game running on all cylinders.  Memphis away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 7-0 OVER L/7 with a combined average of 70.8 ppg scored.West Virginia games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 5-0 OVER L/5 with a combined average of 68 ppg scored while allowing their opposition more than 42 points per game.

Play on the over

Military Bowl teams have gone 29-5 under overall L/34 and these two sides in particular are on a 16-1-1 under run! After their big win in AAC championship game vs Tulane - Army may find it difficult to bring the same  fire they had last week into a rivalry game that will see them face a ramped up Navy side . They could start slow offensively and that as well as this being guaranteed to be a physical affair make for a low scoring game. 

Play under

After their big win vs Tulane last time out in their  AAC championship game , Im betting /Army may not have the fire they need to deal with long time rivals Navy or at least be as proficient as they were in that last win which makes getting points a viable option with a Navy side that will be ramped up and ready to go. 

Navy to cover

Since their embarrassing defeat at the hands of Georgia in their first game of the season, Clemson has scratched and clawed their way back for shot at the ACC title. They go against a explosive SMU side that has been very dominating this season. However, the Mustangs lack of experience in this type of big game maybe daunting . Clemson has the pedigree and coaching to win this game outright , and are a perfect 7-0 SU in their L/7 ACC championship games.Dabo Swinney in December games has won 16 of his L/21 games .

Play on Clemson to cover

The Bobcats also have a top-30 red-zone TD% and is 20th in overall YPP. and has 32 TD in 44 red-zone trips.     I know Miami O has a viable D, but the Bobcats according to my projections  will be putting a decent amount of points on the board here today vs the RedHawks,. Meanwhile, Miami O QB Brett Gabbert,  has  six seasons under center and has gone to the air regularly this season as is evident by making the  most pass attempts he’s had in a single campaign. He also has accumulated  10,000 career yards this season and has an 80/29 TD/INT ratio and also projects to have a decent day here.These two teams played during the regular season and Miami took a 30-20 victory and Im betting a combined score in the same vicinity here today.  CFB teams like Ohio where the total is between 42.5 and 49 - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game have seen a combined average score of 53.9 ppg since the 1992 season with a sample size of 35 games ( 29-6 OVER) . CFB team like Miami O against the total - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) have seen a combined average of 50.4 ppg which covers a huge sample size 300 gmes dating back to 2020 ( 60% of the games eclipsed the total).

Play over

Army has played one top-30 team and it was Notre Dame and they were smashed in that tilt  by a  49-14 count.  Meanwhile, Tulane dealt well with Navi's run heavy  attack and took a  35-0 shut out win .  Navy only produced  100 yards on 35 carries, and answered back with a top tier running game of their own with  48 carries while accumulating 220 yards. Looks like a couple of teams and coaches now know how to handle these run heavy triple option attacks ie Notre Dame and Tulane and more success Im betting is on today's championship agenda.  HC Jon Sumrall’s  was 5-0 SU ATS as a road favorite this season and are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings vs Army.   Jeff Monken in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game is 0-5 ATS.

Play on Tulane to cover

 USC is play well entering this rivalry game as they are  3-1 in their last four games. They have one loss at home, and it was the overtime loss to Penn State and they must be respected here  as underdogs. 

The Fighting Irish are  0-3-1 ATS in the last four as favorites of 10 or less points, USC HC  Lincoln Riley,  has recorded a  9-4-1 ATS mark  as a dog and . The hosts  are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of Notre Dame-USC rivalry. 

Play on USC to cover

 Away sides  are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in this  series since 2017. Coastal Carolina can earn bowl eligibility with a win here and they will be motivated. Chanticleers are 4-0 ATS L/4 season finales and get the nod again in this spot play. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 8-36 ATS since 1992.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

These teams (programs)Michigan-Ohio St games have seen t 10 straight meetings go over the total,  Ohio State is a three touchdown favorite in this one according to Vegas, and my projections estimate they will put 4 plus TDS on the board here while allowing Michigans offense to put two plus TDS on the board. Ohio State games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 8-1 L/9 with a combined average of 59.3 ppg scored.Ryan Day games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games with a combined average 62.2 ppg.

Play on the OVER 

BAYLOR has won the last 11 SU and ATS versus Kansas. Rinse and repeat based on current form of both sides.Kansas  is 4-15 ATS L/19 as favorite since 2018.  Baylor is one of eight Big 12 teams still alive in the race for the Big 12 title game and have plenty of motivation to get the job done here today. CFB road team - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game are 49-14 ATS since the 2020 season.

Play on Baylor to cover

Its. been disappointing season for both Utah and Central Florida, both have tangible parts but none that seem to get them to where they need to go. Im betting on the Utes superior defense, slowing UCFa offense just enough to get us the cover here. UCF has lost 11 of its last 12 games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

Play on the Utah to cover

Its obvious what type of game we are going to have here today. Let the chant begin. DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE. College football season finale games expected to be defensive helmet  to helmet smashers  have lived up to expectations . In the last  21 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-4-1 ( Lots of 39.5 on the board at the time of this selection.

Play under .

 Georgia’s goals for the season won't be decided here and  will remain in front of them even if they lose , so Im not expecting to see Georgia at their very best. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is going to a mid range Bowl Game and thats as good as it gets so you can bet the Techies will be primed to play here vs a side that maybe looking ahead to bigger and better things. Away sides are 18-4-1 ATS in GT-Georgia rivalry since 2000. 

 Play on Georgia Tech. 

Visiting sides  and underdogs  are on a 7-1-1 ATS run this Ole Miss/Miss State  series . Im betting this game will be alot closer than the stats might indicate. 

Miss State to cover

UNDER the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Egg Bowl series. This will be a hard fought game despite of discrepancies. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Ohio Bobcats  have been the driver season in  this series in recent meetings  cashing 4 straight SUATS with an average ppg diff. clicking in at  21.5. The Bobcats have rolled , winning in the stats by an average  125 yards per game and outscoring their opposition  147-33. Rinse and repeat here vs Ball State as a  Ohio victory will put them in the MAC title game. 

Play on Ohio to cover

Navy has won its last eight games ATS versus East Carolina. E.Carolina Pirates in finales are just : 3-11 SU and 1-13 ATS and as has been the past not a reliable side to back in any situation. 

Play on Navy to cover

Two 9-2 teams go head to head this week. Tulane is a fine team, but Memphis are no pushovers, which makes for a value  play with the underdog. The rested  Tigers are 12-3 ATS off a. bye and have really been playing well  having out-gained their last four sides they have played  by an average of 115 yards  per game. Memphis has the guns to stay close here behind   QB Seth Henigan and 1,000-yard rusher  RB Mario Anderson. Memphis is 3-0 ATS L/3 with revenge in this series.

Advantage Memphis 

Toledo lost last time out and will not be going to the MAC championship round. They dont really have alot to play. for other than pride, and gaining a momentum builder before their post season  bowl game . Im betting however,  that will be enough for them to have the  motivation needed to end their season on a positive note. NFL  home team - bad team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game are 13-44 ATS since 2015 . 

Key to game here is the Rockets top tier D, and the Zips complete lack of D, that has  allowed over six yards per play to conference foes. Akron went off on Kent last week in big offensive explosion and win, and will now face negative regression putting them at a disadvantage. 

NFL Home underdogs vs. the money line - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 8-66 since the 1992 season with average ppg diff of-13 which qualifies on this ATS offering .

Toledo to cover

Bears offense looked good last week in a win vs West Virginia , but what was not a good look was that the Mountaineers putt  499 yards up  an also that Baylor  looked very undisciplined  as they were penalized for  90 yards in penalties. Here against a Houston team that has played progressively better as the season has aged behind a top tier defense, it wont be easy for Baylor to succeed  and some obvious regression should rare its ugly head this week . Also as was stated above Houston should have success moving the chains,  vs a side that has allowed an average of 36 ppg in their L/6 trips to the gridiron giving us a viable underdog to back. I know the Cougars looked lifeless last time out vs ASU, but that down effort Im betting was an anomaly as they get refocused here in attempt to get a Bowl invite. 

Play on Houston to cover

UCF has failed to cover 12 of their L/13 in conference games when coming off a close loss of 7-points or less and have lost 10 of its L11 games ATS as a favorite in conference play. Gus Malzahn after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more is 0-6 ATS ( Lost to ASU last week 35-31)Neal Brown on the money line off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has won SU of 11 of his L/17 opportunities. With

QB Garrett Greene back in the lineup after recovering from a upper body injury over the last few weeks the Mounties looked like viable dogs. 

Play on West Virginia 

BYU was bad in the red zone last week, scoring 6 points in four possessions, including an interception and turnover on downs and now Im betting on positive regression.

To extend its school record eight year bowl streak, Kentucky must win out vs. Texas and Louisville. Desperation is the key here. 

Play on Kentucky

UL Monroe is in a complete tailspin as is evident by losing 4 straight games. Meanwhile, Arkansas State is off a big underdog win vs Georgia State last time out and now will get a Bowl appearance and have momentum entering this tilt   Arkansas State  is on 14-0 SU & ATS run versus LA Monroe and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation to manifest itself this Saturday as these teams operate at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum.  Butch Jones after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 5-0 ATS L/5 which was the case last time out.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 51-20 since the 2020 season with a combined average of 59.5 ppg scored.

Eight of UAB's last nine games against conference opponents at Protective Stadium have gone OVER the total .

These teams are  6-0 OVER  in all six h2h meetings in Birmingham since 2005.

Temple just fired Stan Drayton and there is talk the program may be terminated or go down to a lower tier competition level .  Now directionless Temple goes to the gridiron with Everett Withers  as  coach. Thats not a good omen going against a . UTSA side that has finally found its footing after smashing Texas State last time out and that has scored 175 points total in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. It's hard to see how this  Temple football team will be focused here as  many of the top  players are looking for new homes at other schools.  UTSA in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities with the average margin of victory coming in at +21.6 .

Play on UTSA to cover

Ga. Tech is off a huge upset vs previously undefeated Miami Fl, and Im betting will now be in a letdown spot vs North Carolina State here tonight. It must be noted that the Rambling Wreck  are  0-5-1 ATS at home in games following a victory  over the Hurricanes. With Georgia up next, this could easily be a game that has them in a down mode and look ahead sandwich situation. I know N.Carolina State may not entice bettors but  Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey has six TD passes and just one interception in his last three starts and looks to be up-trending .  Considering Gtech is  allowing 5.9 yards per play in ACC games they are far from invincible and vulnerable dogs here. With NC State playing with rest ,its important to note that they are  11-1 SUATS with rest , going against  teams with records of  .600 or less .

Play on NC State to cover

The Bulls have averaged 34 PPG in their six MAC contests so far. and going against a E.Michigan side that has allowed weaker sides like Kent State to score 33 points on them , then the Buffalos look very much like a side that can outscore Eastern Mich. CFB home side, like E.Michigan home team - poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) are 14-41 ATS since 2020.Chris Creighton in home games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game is 2-13 ATS L/15.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Ohio is tied with Miami and Bowling Green in first place in  the conference standings and will be motivated to grab a victory here this Wednesday night.  Ohio on the money line when the money line is +135 to -155 is 9-1 L/10 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.1. Toledo is still a good team, but they have struggled to score this season, but have made up for defensively. Ohio meanwhile is also solid defensively but their offense is explosive averaging 41 ppg in their L/3 and Im betting they outscore the Rockets here tonight , but importantly stay close enough for the cover.

Play on Ohio to cover

Northern Illinois  has already clinched a decent Bowl game, and maybe more interested in staying healthy here than crunching away in a gridiron battle. The Huskies do not have alot to play for making them fade material against a Miami (0) side in a 3 way tie atop the MAC.Miami has geen explosive on  offense in conference action recording  6.9 yards per play, while NIU only has 5.2 ypp which has been buoyed by recent high output yardage vs lower standardized defenses in  Akron and Western Michigan. Im betting on Miami covering here in this spot play action. 

Play on Miami O

Michigan MAC Trophy rivalry, will feature alot of points going on the board. 

The Broncos allow way to many  explosive plays on the ground. . CMU recent struggles Im betting get sorted out here in a big way. They up 34 points  on the board against a decent Eastern Michigan defense two weeks ago, and I now expect them to have big output here . Meanwhile,Western Michigan outgained Northern Illinois at home last week but despite of losing by a 42-28 count, and Im betting on even bigger output here.  Their quarter back Wolff  has been efficient this season  recording  19 passing touchdowns compared to five picks while completing 70% of his passes. (Two of those interceptions came last week)

Western Michigan games after playing their last game on the road are 11-1 L/12 OVER with a combined average of 66.1 ppg scored.Western Michigan games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play have gone over 6 straight times with a combined average of 69.8 ppg scored.

Play over

These two teams have gone  6-0  over in all six   meetings in Chapel Hill since 2003, and the L/4 games have seen North Carolina put 55, 59, 50, 49 on the board, and according to my projections against a lower tier D, another huge output is projected with Wake Forests capable offense doing damage against a Swiss cheese Tar Heels D that has allowed 35 ppg at home this season. N.Carolina has averaged 36..7 ppg in their L/3 overall.

Play over

This according to my projections is to big a line for two teams that look fairly evenly matched The last time the Deacs played an in-state rival, they earned a 34-30 win at N.C. State and they offer value here vs a North Carolina side that is 5-0 ATS. Mack Brown after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and are 7-24 ATS L/31 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +5 , and Dave Clawson in away or neutral games on the money line off a home loss has won 8 of his L/14 overall SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.

Play on Wake Forest to cover

Backup QB expected in for USC. Nebraska D, is the real deal, and that was evident vs Ohio state recently. To many points under these circumstances.  

Play on Nebraska to cover

LSU shit the bed last week in an ugly performance vs Alabama in a DD home loss. Their offense struggled, and Im now betting they come out like gang busters as they look for redemption. With that said Im betting LSU will be very aggressive from a offensive perspective in this tilt vs a Florida side that has allowed an average of  34.2 ppg in their L/3 overall and 31.2 ppg vs SEC opposition this season.. After being smashed by Texas last week in a 49-17 loss you can bet the Gators will also be primed to bounce back. Billy Napier games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 with a combined average of 64.5 ppg scored with his team averaging 32.4 ppg.

LSU HC Brian Kelly games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses have gone over 8 of the L/9 times with a combined average of 76.5 ppg scored. with LSU putting an average of 48 plus ppg on the board during that span.

Play over

This line opened at 48, which is a key number. But Im betting the number we get here is still very viable as my projections estimate a score in lower 40s. Im expecting an old fashioned grinding affair with the combined score staying on the low side of the number.  These teams average   95th in plays per game between overall between them.  Bret Bielema games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 14-3 to the under with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 9-1 UNDER L/10 with a combined average of 41.7 ppg scored.Michigan State away or neutral games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better are 7-0 UNDER since the 2022 campaign with a combined average of 41.3 ppg scored.

Play under

Colorado has come a long way and are playing some very good football entering this game. Now the linesmkaers have gotten ahead of themselves in my humble opinion against a hard nosed Utah team that must not be disrespected. Utah is 24-6 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points under Kyle Whittingham, including 18-2 ATS vs opposition that allow 17 or more PPG.Series has seen Colorado go 2-11 SU in this series,  with the 2 wins coming by a combined 8 points. Utah has covered their L/4 visits Folsom Stadium.

Play on Utah to cover

The Mean Green have lost 3 straight games thanks to a D that is getting spanked for 422 yards per game. Things dont look to get much better here vs a  Roadrunners side that  is 3-0 SU in the last three and 9-2-1 ATS at home in this series. It must also be noted that the home team in this series has recorded a  9-1-1 mark in this h2h series dating back 10 seasons.  Im betting  UTSA  QB Owen McCown,  who has recorded a  20:4 TD/ INT ratio to be the difference maker here this week .CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after scoring 6 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 8-28 since the 1992 season.UTSA in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better are 5-0 ATS L/5.

Play on UTSA to cover

Kent State according to my projections will not eclipse DDs here today . The Flashes were shutout last week, thanks to an abysmal performance from QB Ruel Tomlinson who got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks . He is expected to start again tonight vs Miami O and projects to struggle again. The Flash have been shutout 3 times this season, and scored 6 or less points four times. UNDER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 in this  series. Miami O HC Chuck Martin games versus poor offensive teams - averaging 310 yards/game is 7-0 UNDER as coach of Redhawks with a combined average of 27.2 ppg scored.Miami (OH) games when playing against a team with a losing record are 7-0 UNDER L/7 with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored.

Play under

 Looking at Central Michigan defense had me looking at reasons to bet this game over the offered total  of around 51-52 points.  The chips has allowed over six yards per play in conference games to this point  and the my projections estimate the  Rockets are going to able to move the chains and produce adequate offensive production that will help us get over this number. The Chippewas defense allows 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosiveness. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed which is obviously a crap ranking. On D, the Chips  rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.  The Rockets Quarterback Tucker Gleason leads a consistent offense that averages 29 points per game. . Toledo also rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate. I know Toledo has done decently from a defensive perspective, but the CMU dual-threat QB duo and above average  running game that ranks in the top 40 in yards per carry should help bolster their offense production and see the combined score  get us over the number. Toledo has gone over in all 4 home games this season, while Central Michigan 3 of 4 road games and 4 of 5 MAC confrontations.  Central Michigan away or neutral games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games have gone over 5 straight times with a combined average of 61.8 ppg scored. HC Jim McElwain games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) have gone over 10 of 12 games have gone over 59.9 ppg.

Play on OVER

The holy war between Utah and BYU features long time instate rivals .The  intensity could not be higher, as BYU enters this game undefeated, and could be feeling the pressure.  The Utes are not doing as well as early season prognosticators assumed they would, but this would a perfect redemption opportunity . It must be noted that Utah is 9-1 ATS as a dog in this series and 21-2  ATS as a underdog when coming off a SUATS loss, including 5-0 ATS against  undefeated sides like BYU. 

Play on Utah to cover

After having their undefeated season come to  an abrupt end last time out at SMU the Panthers could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a decent Virginia side this Saturday.

The Cavaliers are 16-2 ATS as conference pups of 6 or more points, including 8-0 ATS when out for  revenge. Virginia in away or neutral games after the first month of the season are 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities. Virginia when playing against a team with a winning record are a perfect 9-0 ATS L/10 tries.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points - excellent offensive team - scoring 35 or more points/game, after a loss by 21 or more points are 9-35 ATS dating back to the 1992 season.

Play on Virginia to cover

 LSU owns  one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year and Im betting  they will give their QB Garrett Nussmeier  all the protection he needs to go airborne consistently today which to me is a not brainer considering the Tigers are one of SECs worst rush offenses at 3.34 ypr. On the flip-side Alabama will also have to unload in back for fashion behind  QB Jalen Milroe who has the ability to  torch LSU with enough explosive plays to put a boatlaod full of point on the board. 

Alabama games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 5-0 over dating back to last season with a combined average of 62 ppg scored.

LSU games against conference opponents have gone over 10 of the L/12 overall with a combined average of 69.7 ppg scored. LSU games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 11-2 OVER dating back to last season with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. LSU games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. are 8-0 OVER L/8 opportunities with a combined average of 79.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

North Texas played Memphis and Tulane tough and put 81 points up on the board in those games and must not be underestimated here vs undefeated  Army. The Cadets have a look ahead to Notre Dame next week, and could easily get side railed here today by a under rated and explosive side.

Play on North Texas to cover

Duke has failed to cover 16 of their L/17 in conference games when coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more which was the case vs Miami Fl last time out by a 53-31 score. This Blue Devils group is disheartened for sure as they played the Canes tough before falling apart late in this tilt giving up multiple scores,. Bouncing back up of the turf will be hard  on the road vs a under rated NC State football program that if they win will be Bowl eligible. Duke is also 0-10 SUATS after allowing 40-plus points in their previous game.

Play on NC State to cover

.Both teams are evenly matched offensively with their points per game this year (30.5 for Iowa State, 30 for Kansas).  Yes, Iowa State is far superior defensively but Kansas off a week of rest will have the legs to slow this side down and on offense take advantage of sub par Iowa State rush D, that ranks 94th in the nation. Kansas despite of a losing record have been competitive this season, with five of the six losses coming  by just one-score .  With Iowa State coming off their first loss of the season they could easily be in a dangerous letdown spot vs  KU head coach Lance Liepold who is a solid 32-13-1 ATS as a host , including 15-2-1 ATS versus .700 or better opp. 

Play on Kansas to cover

Georgia Tech has covered five of the last six meetings in this series and defeated Miami Fl last season 23-20 as 19 point underdogs. I know this explosive Miami side has revenge on board, but it must be noted that they are just 2-6 ATS as conference  road favs of 14 points or less. Georgia Tech vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 6-0 ATS L/6 opportunities  thanks to a vaunted running game that slows the game down.Georgia Tech vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game are 11-2 ATS since the 2022 season.Mario Cristobal on the money line versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play has lost 7 of his L/8 games.Tech had the first weekend of November off after losing to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech biut will now be rejuvenated and ready to continue this ats domination of this series. Also  since HC  Brent Key took over the  Tech football program as interim coach ahead of the fifth game of the 2022 season, the Jackets are 14-2 when rushing for 180 yards in a game are a perfect  5-0 this season when hitting that benchmark and according to my projections they hit that mark here today. 

Play on GTech to cover

Cal is traveling a distance for this game against Wake but they are on a bye week so they should be plenty rested and ready to perform. This a good Bears program, and the ask price might seem high, but after watching them play  both Miami and Pitt very tough, and look capable of beating both sides, Im confident laying a TD vs a side that they have outstated this season is a viable wager.  .Wake Forest Dave Clawson as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points is 0-7 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7.Justin Wilcox versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play is 14-4 ATS with he average ppg diff clicking in at +8.

Play on California to cover

 Overall  Coastal Carolinas D,  has been atrocious, and recently they allowed 516 yards to Louisiana and followed that up by allowing 511 yards to Troy.  Coastal Carolina is allowing 428 yards and 33 ppg while giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  Chanticleers pass defense is not exhibiting much stopping power and  has allowed a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage over 60%  and are allowing more than six yards per play . Thats something  App States  QB Joey Aguilar can take advantage of.He recorded  a 33/10 TD/INT ratio last season and gained more than 3,700 yards. This season,  thanks to his excessive  aggressiveness has  recording 18 TDS and 10 interceptions which are not as prolific as last years action  ,but today he should do fine.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers  defense has also been bad, as is evident by  giving up  6.9 yards per play.  App State have victories in their L/2 tilts  vs Georgia State and Old Dominion despite allowing 884 total yards  Coastal Carolina stake no prisoners  big-play offense have recorded 26 plays of 30+ yards  and 14 plays of 40+ yards ranked top 15 in all of College Football and will have a open alley to put a boatload full of points on the board. Im betting we have a real shoot out here and a combined score that gets eclipsed. Coastal Carolina home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 6-0 OVER with a combined average of 68.5 ppg scored.

OVER

Stormy conditions with high winds and steady rain is expected for this Tuesday night MAC game. Thanks to Central Michigans  proficiency running the ball  ranking 30th in the nation in yards per carry with 5.02 ,  is ultimately important in a nasty weather  game like this .  Meanwhile, Bowling Greens inconsistent, run defense will have issues in this one, giving credence to a Central Michigan cover. 

Central Michigan to cover

Pittsburgh despite of consecutive wins were out gained in both those games, and according to my power rankings are being over rated vs a SMU side that has put an average of 45 ppg on the scoreboard  at home this season. It must be noted that the Panthers have failed to cover 6 straight times in conference road games as dogs. SMU is 9-1 ATS record at home against better  than .600 conference opp.  Im betting SMUs top-20 ranking and 7-1 record  will further be buoyed by its  ability to control the ground game on offense and defense. They rank No. 1 in the ACC in both rushing offense (No. 23 in FBS) and rushing defense (No. 5 in FBS). CFB home team - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 65-28 ATS dating back to the 2020 season for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

  SMU.

Despite of being 4-4 on the season Washington has won the stats battles in all 8 games they have played, and deserve respect here as home dogs to a side like USC that is starting to go downhill defensively as is evident by allowing an average  451 ypg in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Add to that USC HC Rileys 8-20 ATS mark as a road favorite and  the fact  he has failed to cover 10 of L/11 vs sides like Washington off consecutive SU defeats and you have a viable spread in-balance. Lincoln Riley  away versus conference opp coming off consecutive losses, is a lowly 0-7 ATS against football programs that won seven or more games during the regular season the previous year like the Huskies. USC as a road favorite are 0-6 ATS L/6.

Play on Washington to cover

The Aggies  are being over rated here as they have been outyarded in each of their last two wins  and three of their last four games overall. Meanwhile, the South Carolina Gamecocks,, are 4-1 ATS L/5 when playing after a week of rest and also off a SU victory, which is the case here today. The well rested Gamecocks get my support here in this spot play. I know South Carolina (4-3, 2-3) isn't ranked but lost to Alabama and LSU by a combined five points and deserve respect at home.Texas A&M on the road are  0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS  L/8 against above .500 opp. 

Play on South Carolina to cover

Louisville brings in a solid attack, but their D, has been less than efficient which is not a good omen in this death valley confrontation this Saturday night. Since their opening season loss to Georgia this very strong Tigers side have been a difficult team to play against and nothing will change here tonight. Im betting the Tigers D, will slow down Cardinals offense and that their own offense will unload in a big way in what will be a DD victory for Clemson. 

Clemson’s record in November under Swinney: Last nine years in November: 30 wins, 4 losses.Clemson’s history includes 18 seasons with a perfect 4-0 record in November. Dabo Swinney as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points is 12 -3 ATS. with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.7.

Clemson has won all eight ACC games versus Louisville and is on a 6-0 ATS run.

CFB road team - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28) after 7+ games are 12-36 ATS dating back to the 2020 season.

Play on Clemson to cover

Both these teams have not played well of late, but Central Florida stands out as consistently being over rated, as they have now lost 3 straight home games , and dont really deserve this much line respect, especially since they cant decide who will even start at QB . HC Gus Malzahns days are numbered here, and even if he pulls of a victory today Im betting it will not come easily.  Im also betting Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan will make mucho positive plays against a shorthanded UCF secondary getting us the cover. 

UCF after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored have  failed to cover 8 of their L/9.

UCF has lost its last 10 games ATS as a favorite in conference play.

Play on Arizona to cover

 The undefeated Cyclones, could easily be caught looking ahead to a  revenge situation with Kansas next week, making them vulnerable as double digit home favorites vs Texas Tech side that has covered 4 of their L/6 vs undefeated conf opp. 

TEXAS TECH is on an eight-game ATS winning streak in conference play when coming off a road loss and have covered 11 of their L/12 under these circumstances. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

UNDER the total has converted in 11 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry. Im betting on another grinding affair that stays under this totals offering. 

Silverfield, who has been the Tigers' head coach since late 2019, has never won a game in an indoor stadium and it will not get much easier here today according to my projections for this Alamodome game.  The Tigers last two wins have come down to the wire. Memphis beat North Texas by eight points and needed an interception the game's final play to come out on top and , then beat a average at best  Charlotte sides  thanks to a last-minute touchdown drive.

•MEMPHIS is on a 4-18 ATS run in conference games when coming off an outright win which was the case last time out.  Meanwhile, Texas-San Antonio has won 10 of its last 11 conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss which was the case last time out in a hurtful 46-45 loss after holding DD deficit a half time. Look for this group to play all out here this week as they seek redemption.

Play on UTSA to cover

USF has been decent in games vs Alabama, Miami and Memphis and this trip to FAU should be a walk in the park despite of not having their starting QB under center. (Byrun Brown). Meanwhile, FAU has been extremely inconsistent and deserve to be home dogs tonight. Note: The Owls staring QB Cam Fancher is fighting turf toe of late, and is less than 100%. The Bulls are off rest and are 15-3 SU L/18 on road when they are favs . The Bulls are also 7-1 ATS off a bye.

CFB  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 27-7 ATS since 1992.

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There is definitely something internally   wrong with this Liberty team that was so highly rated at the beginning of this season. The loss against Kennesaw State was really unfathomable last week, and another lifeless effort is not out of the question against a upstart Jacksonville State football program currently clicking on all cylinders.  CFB Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have recorded a  40-66 SU and 36-66-4 ATS in their next game since 2012. Home favorites - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 19-50 ATS dating back to the 1992 season for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

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Louisiana is being under rated here at Texas State . The Cajuns  only defeat during this campaign  was against an explosive Tulane  side  by a 41-33 count that actually saw  Lafayette outgain the Green Wave by just under 60 yards. Im betting this Louisiana top-20 offense in yards per play,to damage here today and to possibly even pull off the upset.G.J. Kinne after having won 2 out of their last 3 games is 0-5 ATS L/5 overall.

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According to my projections the right team is favored and at anything under a FG a very viable wagering opportunity.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 3-31 since 2020.

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Coming off the program's first win against Florida State, the Blue Devils (6-1, 2-1 ACC) are now bowl eligible. Duke faces its first ranked opponent under first-year coach Manny Diaz in the 22nd-ranked Mustangs (6-1, 3-0).  This Duke team is a football program playing with energy and deserve respect here as DD dogs.  Duke has been backed by a tenacious D    to win six of seven games. Ranked 22nd nationally in total defense Im betting they give the Mustangs all they can handle in this tilt. Duke are 7-1 ATS as conference home dogs of less than 14 points and get the nod in this spot play .

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Michigan will turn back to Davis Warren as the starting quarterback against Michigan State on Saturday and Im betting that will reignite their offense.  The Spartans are coming off their biggest win of the season over Iowa, and could easily be in a letdown spot at the worst possible time.

Michigan State  is on a 1-13 ATS run in conference play when coming off an upset win. Michigan  is 30-19-1 ATS in the last four seasons (including 16-7 ATS in Road/Neutral games)

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The Colorado State Rams have a share of first place in the Mountain West and they come in off back-to-back wins over San Jose State and Air Force. Last time out they took a  21-13 win  over Air Force which was their first win vs a Service Academy  in 22 YEARS and matchup well here vs a New Mexico program,  that they own a 6-0-1 ATS run hosting the Lobos. Im also betting it will be New Mexicos ugly D that ranks dead last in the nation (497 ypg), that will be their downfall here today and they should also be in a letdown state after coming back for late win vs Utah State last time out. 

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The Jaguars are averaging just 17 points in their last three games, in which they are 1-2, and are bring over rated here on a-bloated line according to my projections. The Jaguars are 0-4 on Saturday this season and have 3 weekday victories. Meanwhile, the visiting Warhawks’ offense  has been rolling recently having garnered 309 yards and four touchdowns during ULM’s 3-game winning streak. Revenge is on board here for UL Monroe after being smashed last season 55-7 and will primed for pay back.  S Alabama  is just  2-10 ATS record as a conference favorite against avenging opp.

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Stanford needs to go back to the drawing board with this football program as their current direction is abysmal. Cardinal’s are off   back- to-back SUATS losses, which is not a good omen considering their long standing 1-17 ATS mark off back to back defeats.  Meanwhile, Wake Forest is showing  some , winning ways of late as they  have won 2 of their L/3 with the loss coming  vs a laser focused  Clemson football program.  It must also be noted that the Demon Deacons are a perfect 14-0 ATS 100% versus opposition coming off consecutive losses. 

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