|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-09-23||TCU +13 v. Georgia||7-65||Loss||-110||107 h 24 m||Show|
TCU enters this game hitting on all cylinders offensively scoring an average 47 points per game in their L/3 trips to to gridiron. Meanwhile, somethings not right defensively with Georgia as they have now allowed 71 points and 1,013 yards in its last two tilts. Also after finding a way to barely get by Ohio State last time out in miraculous fashion, Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation against a TCU side that is expected to lose and play with alot less pressure than their opponents , thus giving us a hefty cushion on what my projections estimate is a slightly bloated line. Note: The L/4 teams that made it back to the College Football championship game, are 0-4 /SU/ATS. Also .750 or better DD bowl pups entering off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS dating back to the 2008 season .Add to that bowl teams taking 13 points or more on the opening line are 7-0 ATS going against .900 plus win % sides dating back to the 2013 campaign.
Dykes is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Favorites in the Championship game have failed to cover 5 of the L/8 times and are 0-2 SU/ATS vs non undefeated opposition like TCU.
Take the points with TCU
|01-02-23||Utah v. Penn State +1||21-35||Win||100||20 h 59 m||Show|
Penn State finished their season playing a top tier brand of football winning their L/4 games . This Nitanny Lions football program is as streaky as they come and when their hot their hot and hard to stop. Note: PSU's is 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS when coming off
two or more SU/ATS victories which is the case here going up against Utah of the Pc 12. Franklin is also 8-0 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 13-1 ATS off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals as the coach of PENN ST.
Utes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Utes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
CFB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PENN ST) - after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/40 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Penn State to cover
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||46-45||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
Im betting USC is in emotional letdown situation after blowing an opportunity to be in the National Championship play off series by losing to Utah in their PAC 12 finale. Meanwhile, Tulane has looked better and better each week this season and deserve respect here to pull of the upset. Bowl teams with the Heisman Trophy winner like USC ( QB Caleb Williams) are 0-8 SUATS off SU/ATS loss dating back since 1980. .TULANE is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.Fritz is 12-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of TULANE.
Play on Tulane to cover
|12-31-22||Ohio State +6.5 v. Georgia||41-42||Win||100||73 h 34 m||Show|
I saw and listened the reaction of Ohio State players and the coaching staff after their loss to Michigan, and that defeat Im betting put a fire under their proverbial behinds of this team and they will now be ready for a huge redemption vs a top tier opponent Georgia. OHIO ST is 12-2 ATS in road games off a home loss since 1992. Day is 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of OHIO ST. It must be noted Ohio State was ranked ahead of Georgia when the season began and are being under rated here.
OHIO ST is 21-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CFB Teams like Georgia who were victorious and covered their conference title tilt are 0-10 SU L/14 seasons against opposition coming off a SU loss as a chalk like Ohio State.
Play on Ohio State to cover
|12-30-22||South Carolina +2.5 v. Notre Dame||38-45||Loss||-105||32 h 41 m||Show|
Gator Bowl - TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Biggest issue with the Fighting Irish is their No. 129 in Red Zone Defense . Im betting S.Carolina will score above their season average because of this and that their own D will hold the fort here. Note: HC Beamer of the Gamecocks has recorded a 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference opposition and have cashed 4 SU underdog wins this season and Im betting rings the bell again here and cashes a ticket for us.
S CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games.
Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Notre Dame is 7-15 SUATS in its last 17 bowl games.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an inexperienced QB as starter are 91-150 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on South Carolina to cover
|12-30-22||Pittsburgh +6.5 v. UCLA||37-35||Win||100||31 h 36 m||Show|
Pittsburgh , ended their season in top form winning four consecutive tilts to close the campaign, keyed by a defense that allowed just 14.5 PPG during that top tier span. The Panthers matchup well vs a UCLA side that has been inconsistent this season despite of alot of pundits backing them for bigger in better things since before this season began. Today /Im betting the superior D, which Pittsburgh pwns will get the job done and get us the cover. Note: Pac-12 Bowl sides like UCLA that allow more than 25 PPG are 0-14 ATS the last 14 opportunities.
UCLA is 11-24 ATS in road games after a bye week since 1992. Narduzzi is 11-3 ATS in road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH.
Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.Bruins are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.Bruins are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (PITTSBURGH) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 77-37 ATS L10/ seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
|12-30-22||Maryland v. NC State||16-12||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
Duke's Mayo Bowl - Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
My Bowl matchup power rankings suggest like the linesmakers do, that these sides are evenly matched but why I like the NC State in a close game is because NC State has Christopher Dunn, who won the Lou Groza Award for the nation’s best kicker on their side of the filed. Advantage NC State.
Terps head Terrapin Locksley is 3-39 SU vs a side with a better record.
CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (NC STATE) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/game), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-2 L/30 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on NC State to cover
|12-29-22||Washington v. Texas -3||27-20||Loss||-110||26 h 0 m||Show|
The Longhorns had a very good season and lost only four games with two defeats coming against top 10 programs. Today against a suspect Huskies D, Im betting the Longhorns will dominate . Yes, there are some top running backs not playing for the Texas today but with the talented Jonathan Brooks waiting for his chance to impress the Longhorns will be fine.
Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Pac-12.
WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS in road games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.Pac-12 Bowl teams like Washington that allow 25 or more PPG are 0-14 ATS in their L/14 bowl appearances.
Play on Texas to cover
|12-29-22||Minnesota v. Syracuse +11||28-20||Win||100||19 h 13 m||Show|
Syracuse was ranked 5th in the nation in Team Defense despite of a up and down season and are being disrespected here by the public in their ability to be competitive. Both sides, feature strong RBs, and Im betting on a grinding affair that is much closer then the public and lines-makers expect.
Babers is 9-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE.
Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS Bowl games.Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Play on Syracuse to cover
|12-28-22||Ole Miss -3 v. Texas Tech||25-42||Loss||-120||31 h 8 m||Show|
Texas Bowl - NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Tech won its last three games of the regular season when quarterback Tyler Shough returned to the starting lineup , and Ole Miss lost their L/3 games. But despite of this I still like what my power ranking suggest is the superior side. Note: Bowl sides like Texas Tech coming in on 3-0 SUATS run are just 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when going against an opposing side coming off a SU favorite loss like Ole Miss is losing their finale to Mississippi State 24-22. as 2 point chalk .Kiffin is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. TEXAS TECH is 1-8 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Ole Miss to cover
|12-28-22||Kansas v. Arkansas -2.5||53-55||Loss||-110||28 h 2 m||Show|
Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN
I know Arkansas is missing quite few players from their regular roster, but this is still a deep SEC side that played alot of formidable teams this season and looked good for the most part and Sam Pittman will have them ready compete . Meanwhile, Kansas despite of having their star QB Daniels back in the lineup, are a side that is atrocious defensively, and Im betting Arkansas takes advantage of their porous so called stopping units. Key here is the Jayhawks D, that allows an average of 356 ppg and Im betting it gets smashed. I know everyone loves a dog , especially one with an explosive offense but like said, the Kansas D is their Achilles heal.
CFB team (ARKANSAS) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arkansas to cover
|12-27-22||East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +7.5||53-29||Loss||-110||23 h 28 m||Show|
QB Grayson McCall has grabbed Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year honors three times in his top tier Collegiate career and he holds numerous QB records at Coastal Carolina. This will be his last game in Coastal Carolina uniform and Im betting he will be primed to perform before entering the transfer portal. I know the Chanticleer's were beat up on their two final game sof the season, by two strong opponents James Madison and Troy, which abruptly ended a 9-1 run, but Im betting those tilts will have them prepared to take on a explosive East Carolina offense, but an inconsistent group that can struggle defensively. (East Carolina ended their season allowing 42 and 46 points respectively to Houston and Temple. COASTAL CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 275 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (COASTAL CAROLINA) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 76-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Coastal Carolina to cover
|12-27-22||Utah State +7 v. Memphis||10-38||Loss||-100||21 h 18 m||Show|
Utah State (6-6) won five of its last seven regular-season games to qualify for a Bowl appearance. It was a struggle at times this season, but they must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs the Memphis Tigers. Remember this is a program that won 11 games last season. The Aggies defeated three teams that earned bowl invitations this season: UConn, Air Force and San Jose State. and own an over 1,000-yard rusher and nine all-conference-type players.
MWC Bowl sides 5-0 SUATS vs. AAC opposition.
NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 76-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.
Play on Utah State to cover
|12-27-22||Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +4.5||21-23||Win||100||18 h 28 m||Show|
Camellia Bowl - Cramton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
Georgia Southerns offense behind QB Vantrease can be explosive but his propensity to throw interceptions (15 this season) is something that must be considered detrimental. Meanwhile, quarterback Cole Snyder, a transfer from Rutgers started all 12 games in the regular season for Buffalo; he completed 59.2% of his passes for 2,765 yards, along with 17 touchdowns and eight picks and must not be underestimated in his ability to play at top level , especially against a Eagles D that rank 124th in defensive SP+. Comparing records isolated key trends that directly effected my perceptions of this matchup as Buffalo was 5-1 ATS as Bowl teams this season , while GSU 0-5/SU 1-4 ATS against bowl sides.
Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
CFB Neutral field underdogs (BUFFALO) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game.are 76-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Buffalo to cover
|12-26-22||New Mexico State +3.5 v. Bowling Green||24-19||Win||100||76 h 58 m||Show|
Bowling green is over rated as is evident by ranking 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on Defense. Meanwhile, New Mexico State under Jerry Kill has impressed me with his upgrading of this team, and how well they finished the season. Considering Kill has had success against MAC sides winning 20- of 27 attempts in his career SU vs this conference including an 18-2 SU mark vs sub .500 sides like Bowling Green. With that said it will be an easy decision o take the points here with a side this very hungry program.
Play on New Mexico State to cover
|12-23-22||Wake Forest v. Missouri OVER 58.5||27-17||Loss||-110||23 h 16 m||Show|
Gasparilla Bowl - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
When Wake Forest takes to the gridiron and top gun QB Hartman is leading the offense you can almost expect offensive fire works from them, even against the best of defenses. They enter this game, having scored 34, 45, 31 points respectively in 3 straight and even against a staunch Missouri D, they have the ability to rock the house with a boatload full of points. On the flipisde the Demon Deacons own a sometimes porous D, that has allowed more than 31 ppg on the road this season. Meanwhile, Missouri has played their best D, at home , but on the road their numbers surge to an average of 31.4 ppg. Tonight Im betting the Deacons to get into the 30s offensively and for Missouri to have to be aggressive and also do some damage, against a D, that will not be as daunting as those they faced in the SEC.
Clawson is 8-1 OVER after allowing 375 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of WAKE FOREST with the average combined score clicking in at 65.8 ppg.
|12-22-22||Air Force +4 v. Baylor||30-15||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
Air Force behind their triple option offense is ranked No. 1 in the nation in Time of Possession and Im betting they burn plenty of clock time and slow down Baylors offensive prowess because of breaking up their flow. The Fly boys are also No. 1 team in the nation in Overall Defense and must not be disrespected in their ability to slow down a strong Baylor attack… The Falcons have also had great success in Bowl games cashing 10 of their last 13 bowl games. With Big 12 sides just 0-3 L/3 vs Military schools and Baylor having lost 5 of their L/7 here at this venue SU its an easy decision to grab the points with the under rated underdog.
Calhoun is 29-11 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE
NFL Neutral field underdogs (AIR FORCE) - excellent ball control team, 32 or more possession minutes/game are 75-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.
Play on Air Force to cover
|12-21-22||South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +4||23-44||Win||100||28 h 46 m||Show|
New Orleans Bowl - Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Western Kentuckys explosive big play offense can do damage against the best of Defenses. Im usually a proponent of strong defenses in Bowl games, but like I said the Hilltoppers can make strong Ds like South /Alabama owns look very average as the football program has registered 350 or more yards of offense in 27 straight games.
S ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record .
W KENTUCKY is 21-9 ATS L/30 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. W KENTUCKY is 32-13 ATS L/45 vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game. Helton is 15-6 ATS in road games in games played on turf as the coach of W KENTUCKY.
Western Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS in bowl games vs. .666 or better opposition and are a bankroll expanding 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. Sun Belt foes and 11-3 ITS against Bowl sides since last season.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover
|12-20-22||Toledo v. Liberty +4||21-19||Win||100||24 h 13 m||Show|
Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Liberty Im betting is being under estimated here in their abilities to pick up a straight up win and more importantly a cover even though they finished a down not as the team looked disappointed that they may lose their coach Freeze to a power 5 team, that dis materialize and now Im betting they will be ready to play.LIBERTY is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.LIBERTY is 37-19 ATS in non-conference games .Liberty is 3-0 SU against MAC sides L/3 seasons. Freeze is 9-1 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002,Candle is 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of TOLEDO.
MAC Bowl sides like Toledo are just 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. opponents like Liberty coming off a loss.
Play on Liberty to cover
|12-19-22||Connecticut +11 v. Marshall||14-28||Loss||-110||27 h 33 m||Show|
Myrtle Beach Bowl - Brooks Stadium - Conway, SC
The Uconn Huskies played well this season and got bowl eligibility under first year HC Mora who has got this group to play disciplined tough football. It must be noted that first year HC s have cashed 10 of their L14 Bowls as double-digit dogs . Here today, Im betting UConn stays fairly competitive vs the lowly No. 127 in the nation Red Zone Offense.
CONNECTICUT is 19-6 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Play on UConn to cover
|12-17-22||Boise State v. North Texas +11||35-32||Win||100||25 h 58 m||Show|
Frisco Bowl - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX
North Texas is getting to many points here according to my projections. Note: Conference title game losers like North Texas as DD underdogs have cashed 8 of their L/10 opportunities. Also … CUSA Bowl sides are a perfect 5-0 ATS off a Double digit defeat when going against. MWC opposition. NORTH TEXAS is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons. Bennett is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.
Boise State also lost their conference championship game to Fresno State- teams like this that lost their conference title tilt are 2-8 ATS in their Bowl appearances.
key matchup stat:NORTH TEXAS is 9-2 ATS vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at +2.7.
Play on North Texas to cover
|12-17-22||BYU +4.5 v. SMU||24-23||Win||100||58 h 46 m||Show|
New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
I was surprised to see SMU as favs in this game vs BYU even though they will play without star RB Lopini Kotoa as there are viable alternatives in that position on this team looking to make a statement The Mustangs enter this game 0-5 ATS as favs and 0-3 SU all-time in this series. . Considering this is Mustangs’ HC Rhett Lashlee’s first ever bowl game , his lack experience could easily work against him here, and I expect BYU to pound their way to cover .SMU is 4-15 L/19 ATS (in road games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry . SMU is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less (which was the case last time out winning by 34-31 count vs Memphis.Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.SMU is 2-11 ATS in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games .
CFB Neutral field favorites vs. the money line (SMU) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences have lost 17 of L/27 opportunities SU.
Play on BYU to cover
|12-17-22||Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 45.5||24-38||Win||100||33 h 46 m||Show|
LendingTree Bowl - Hancock Whitney Stadium - Mobile, AL
Southern Miss defense can stop run games cold as is evident by having limited the opposition to fewer than 150 rushing yards on average per game this season.That makes me believe Rice despite of throwing more than their share of picks this season will be forced to air the ball out, which will see them also score above the expected output, and see some extra points go up on the board against them because of their atrocious turnover ratios. On the flipside, Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 1,000 plus rushing yards this season for Southern Miss should have a field day on the ground vs a Owls side that struggles against ground attacks ranking 91st against the run, allowing 166.5 rushing yards per game. Southern Miss also has alot of turnovers (22) so some unexpected offense could easily be stymied but go the other way. Sloppy game expected and more points than the lines-makers are projecting to go on the board.
Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 vs. S-Belt.
RICE is 8-0 OVER in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 62.9 ppg scored. Rices L/24 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 58.4 ppg scored.
Over is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last 6 non-conference games.
Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
|12-16-22||Troy +1.5 v. UTSA||18-12||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
Cure Bowl - Exploria Stadium - Orlando, FL
These two teams enter this Bowl tilt on 10-game win streaks . There is a difference here though between both sides and that comes on defense.Troy’s defense has held the seven bowl teams they played to 17 PPG/326 total YPG on average . Meanwhile,UTSA has had defensive problems against Bowl sides this season allowing, an average of 29 PPG/409 total YPG on average. There is on old adage that says defense wins big games but offense gets you to those big games. This was never truer here in this matchup as UTSA has shown more offensive prowess than the Trojans, but the Trojans defense is superior according to the numbers and its obvious how tenacious their D is if you have watched any of their games.
Troy is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against Bowl teams this season and have won their L/4 appearances. Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
TROY is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. this season.
UTSA has never won a Bowl game and are 0-3 SU .
Play on Troy to cover
|12-03-22||LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5||30-50||Loss||-110||21 h 4 m||Show|
SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
This total has steamed up by almost 5 points since opening and now that it's been over done Ill come back and take a contrarian stance and hit the under offering.
Georgia has allowed 12.4 ppg on the road this season.The Dawgs have allowed 20 or less points in their L/7 games.( 10, 0, 20, 13, 19, 6, 14) Im betting Georgia will not allow more than 17 this week, while my own projections estimate a 31 point offensive output .
GEORGIA is 6-0 UNDER when they score 29 to 35 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.8 ppg scored.
Kelly is 16-6 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 49.9 ppg scored.
GEORGIA is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.4 ppg scored.
CFB Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 35-8 UNDER L/30 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 43 ppg scored.
CFB team against the total (GEORGIA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with a combined average of 46.5 ppg scored.
|12-03-22||Fresno State v. Boise State -3||28-16||Loss||-110||107 h 49 m||Show|
MW Championship Game
Boise State took out Fresno State 40-20 earlier this season, and Im betting the Bulldogs will not have a big enough turn around to get the revenge win in the rematch. Boise is 11-1 SU L/12 at home this series and have won 5 of 6 home games . Home field advantage will prevail once again.
BOISE ST is 33-17 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. Tedford is 14-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB home team vs. the money line (BOISE ST) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18.7.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FRESNO ST) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off 3 straight wins against conference rivals are 13-38 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Boise State to cover
|12-03-22||Central Florida v. Tulane -160||28-45||Win||100||55 h 49 m||Show|
From time to time I will lay a little lumber with a certain gridiron moneyline opportunity, and Tulane is my choice here this week .Home favorites vs. the money line (TULANE) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80%)or better playing a team with a winning record are 33-1 L/5 seasons. Tulane has proved to me their the real deal after last weeks road victory vs Cincinnati. I know UCF is a top tier side, and beat Tulane the last time they visited here a few weeks ago 38-31. But now Im betting on a revenge scenario bounce back effort by the Green Wave in this championship game to be golden.
Play on Tulane to win
|12-03-22||Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8.5||26-45||Win||100||55 h 43 m||Show|
Ive made Troy -10 advantage favs here according to my own personal projection sheets. Thus laying this number makes for a viable wager. TROY is 7-1 ATS against conference opponents this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.3 ppg.
Note: Coastal Carolina is expected to play without starting QB Grayson McCall. His replacement QB Jarrett Guest has not shown much going 18-of-42 (42.9%) for 270 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in conference and here vs an extremely strong Trojans D, more struggles should be expected.
CFB home team (TROY) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Troy to cover
|12-02-22||Utah +3 v. USC||47-24||Win||100||63 h 2 m||Show|
Since these teams have met earlier this season, the Utes D has become more physical and has come together and currently showing alot of chemistry. Im betting the Utes physicality and grit will be the difference maker in the rematch.Entering the Pac-12 Championship game, Utah leads the Pac-12 in third down and fourth down defense, first downs defense, passing defense, rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense and time of possession.
It must be noted that on the season the Utes have the PPG differential advantage , winning by +19.3 as compared to USC’s +16.2 ppg diff average. • The Utes are averaging 39.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally.
Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 that ranks in the top-20 nationally in both scoring offense and defense, ranking 10th and 19th. In the last three games, Utah has been averaging 67.3 yards per scoring drive while averaging 51.4 in the previous nine games. Utah is averaging 26.4 first downs per game while holding opponents to 15.5, ranking fourth in first down offense and 11th in first downs defense in the FBS.
Note:Extending plays is Utah's specialty this season, ranking eighth in the FBS in third down conversions (.503)Utah ranks fifth in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed per game in the country.
UTAH is 22-10 ATS L/32 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better. ) UTAH is 22-7 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
USC is 7-18 ATS in December games since 1992.
CFB team (USC) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 11-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB team (UTAH) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Utah to cover
|12-02-22||North Texas v. UTSA UNDER 70||27-48||Loss||-110||9 h 52 m||Show|
C-USA Championship Game
North Texas has allowed 17 or less points in 3 of their L/4 games and are capable of staling the Roadrunners offense. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 7 points exact in two of their L/3. With this being a championship game, Im betting the action will not be as wide open as reg season action, and a more chess like game will be played. Im not saying is will be a defensive sleeper, but I am betting the final score will not top this steamed up offering.
UTSA is 7-0 UNDER sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 49.8 ppg scored.
CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 (UTSA) - off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 25-3 UNDER L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 62.4 ppg.
|11-26-22||Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +6.5||48-51||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
App State enters this game as a weak favorite in my betting opinion as their 2-7 ATS record in lined games would indicate as well as a ugly 1-7 ATS record as a chalk. The Mounties have also failed to cover 4 straight and despite of a boatload full of talent seem like their missing decent chemistry. On the flip-side we have to remember that the home side needs a victory here to garner a Bowl invite so they will leave it on the field today .APPALACHIAN ST is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.Clark is 11-21 ATS as a favorite as the coach of APPALACHIAN ST. G Southern is 4-0 ATS L/4 home finales.
Play on Georgia Southern to cover
|11-26-22||Iowa State +10 v. TCU||14-62||Loss||-110||53 h 7 m||Show|
Iowa State takes on a perfect 10-0 TCU side that is off a late FG win in a grueling tilt vs Baylor last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown situation this Saturday. Add to that Iowa State despite of not being Bowl eligible have played much better down the stretch than earlier in the season and have out yarded their L/5 opponents . This could easily be the Cyclones biggest and most important game of the season from a personal perspective and I expect we see them leave everything on the field versus a side easily looking ahead to their upcoming Big 12 championship game.
Iowa State has covered 6 straight aas conference road pups and are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series as underdogs.
Campbell is 15-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of IOWA ST.
CFB road team (IOWA ST) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 179-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Iowa State to cover
|11-26-22||New Mexico State v. Liberty -23.5||49-14||Loss||-110||45 h 29 m||Show|
Liberty is off a 1 point loss to Vtech last week and are not in a good mood. This Liberty side is known as the king of cripple killers and Im betting their wrath has no end this week, against a side they overwhelmingly matchup up well against. Note: Liberty has crushed sub par .333 opponents by an average of 33 ppg in their L/17 opportunities and have covered and won these events. 7-0 straight times in lined tilts. Rinse and repeat.
Play on Liberty to cover
|11-26-22||Michigan v. Ohio State -7.5||45-23||Loss||-110||3 h 48 m||Show|
After playing Illinois last week Michigan is bruised and banged up and Im betting that will effect their performance this week vs. revenge minded Ohio State side that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now after getting shellacked by a 42-27 count last season at the hands of the wolverines. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 20-50 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.
Play on Ohio State to cover
|11-25-22||Arkansas v. Missouri +3||27-29||Win||100||28 h 13 m||Show|
Arkansas known as inconsistent football program under HC Pitman is off a huge win vs Miss last time out and now Bowl eligible will be in huge letdown spot vs a Missouri program that had success in this series over the years. Note: Arkansas has lost 11 of their L/15 off a upset win.
ARKANSAS is 11-25 ATS L/37 as a road favorite .
Drinkwitz is 9-2 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.
MISSOURI is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games versus inconsistent defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.
CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-62 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.
MISSOURI is 3-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS .MISSOURI is 4-0 straight up against ARKANSAS at Arkansas.
Play on Missouri to cover
|11-25-22||Tulane v. Cincinnati -2||27-24||Loss||-110||69 h 21 m||Show|
Both these teams have identical 9-2 records on the season, and their only recent losses have both come to UCF in closely contested affairs. The difference maker today will come via Bearcats home field advantage and the fact this is a football program is use to high pressure games and will not fold under any kind of pressure. This is not the case for Tulane.
CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - off a double digit road win, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 36-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1.
Play on Cincinnati cover
|11-24-22||Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 59.5||24-22||Win||100||32 h 29 m||Show|
No matter what stats both offensively or defensively have been recorded by either side this season should be discarded and it must be noted that this is a heated rivalry that is often very physical and grueling. This kind of battle also usually ends in a lower scoring affair as compared to the totals offering. These teams have gone under in 10 of their L/13 meetings in Ole Miss and in the two most recent battles these teams did not eclipse hefty totals of 71 and 65.5 with both tilts coming well under theses numbers registering in at 52 and 55 points respectively.
OLE MISS is 8-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53 points going on the board.OLE MISS is 10-2 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.6 ppg scored.
Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 road games.
80% Chance of rain in Oxford Thursday night.
CFB team against the total (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 191-113 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.
|11-19-22||Fresno State v. Nevada +22.5||41-14||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
Fresno State is playing well and Nevada is not having suffered 8 straight losses after q 2-0 start to their campaign. I know the Bulldogs are the superior side, but they have not played well on the road this season losing the stats battles in 4 of 5 games. Im not doubting Fresno State wins here straight up, but I wont be surprised to see Nevada cover this spread and in fact Im betting they do.
Nevada was blast 41-3 on the road like week in Boise State but it must be noted that this program has proved somewhat resilient in the past after a ugly offensive output going 14-3 ATS L/17 in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game .
Tedford is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
Play on Nevada to cover
|11-19-22||Georgia -21.5 v. Kentucky||16-6||Loss||-110||32 h 7 m||Show|
Georgia is a power house and heads and shoulders above most teams in this entire nation and have a history of having strong performances in their final road games of the season registering an astounding 11-0 SU/ATS record. With that said, and despite of the hefty line offering laying this much lumber is a viable offering. Note: CFB Road favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (GEORGIA) - dominant team (outgain opp. by 100+ YPG) against an average team (+/- 50 YPG) are 27-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.
CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (KENTUCKY) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 16-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.
Play on Georgia to cover
|11-19-22||UL-Monroe +15 v. Troy||16-34||Loss||-110||31 h 12 m||Show|
UL Monroe has won their L/2 games, and now go against a strong Troy side, that despite of 8-2 overall record and a 7-0 run have only one win of more than 9 points during their current winning streak. Its Troys /D that does a majority of the top tier work, while the offense regularly struggles. My projections estimate this is just to many points to lay with the Trojans with the value sitting with the road dog with winning momentum .
"Don't let their record give you any indication," Troy coach Jon Sumrall said. "They're 4-6 by record but they lost by a score to Coastal Carolina, they lost by a score to South Alabama, and they played Alabama and Texas, two Power Five teams.
TROY is 0-10 ATS L/10 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders . TROY is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 season.TROY is 4-14 ATS in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)
Play UL Monroe to cover
|11-19-22||Georgia State +9.5 v. James Madison||40-42||Win||100||30 h 1 m||Show|
The Georgia State Panthers must not be underestimated here vs James Madison as their defense is staunch and has been dominating their opposition of late. It must be noted that in the last three trips to the gridiron they have given up a grand total 785 yards combined and they have sacked the QBs 15 times during their current smash down of offenses. I know James Madison is a fine football program, but they will feel the heat here today vs a gritty/physical side with a never say die attitude.
GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. GEORGIA ST is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. GEORGIA ST is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CFB road team (GEORGIA ST) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia State to cover
|11-19-22||UTSA -13 v. Rice||41-7||Win||100||51 h 51 m||Show|
Its not my usual m.o to lay this many points on the road . But Im betting we have a firm advantage here with the road team UTSA that has won 7 straight behind a consistent offense that will take advantage of Rice D, that has allowed 41,56, 30, 45 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron. The Roadrunners are also trying to clinch a chamoionship game spot so motivation will be a huge factor this Saturday Note:Road favorites vs. the money line (UTSA) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 36-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +19.8 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering . UTSA has won the L/6 meetings in this series and have won and covered the last 3.
Play on UTSA to cover
|11-19-22||TCU v. Baylor +2.5||29-28||Win||100||50 h 29 m||Show|
The defending Big 12 champs Baylor Bears were defeated 30-28 as 7.5-point chalk at TCU last season, and now have revenge on board and are redemption minded after a down effort last week vs Kansas State in what Im betting was a look ahead situation that back fired on them from a attention standpoint. Now wide awake and ready to perform they are very viable underdogs at home vs a TCU side in an emotional letdown scenario after pulling off an upset on the road vs Texas last week. TCU is 5-15 ATS L/20 off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.
Baylor has covered 13 of their L/14 as an underdog when out looking for conference revenge versus an opponent coming off a SUATS victory, including 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing as hosts.
.BAYLOR is 31-16 ATS L/47 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry.BAYLOR is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.Aranda is 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of BAYLOR.
Play on Baylor to cover
|11-16-22||Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois||29-23||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
Despite of an array of returning players from last season, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU on the campaign and will not be going bowling this season. Meanwhile, 4-6 Miami O still has a chance at a Bowl invite and Im betting are very motivated and well prepared to get a W here today. I know Northern Illinois is off a victory last time out, but that has not always been a recipe for success when facing this particular MAC football program going 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win vs the Hawks. Overall Miami O is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and get the nod here behind a solid D, that is allowing just 23 ppg. Note: Northern Illinois is allowing an average of 38 points per game ranking 114th nationally allowing 8.3 yp attempt and here even against a pedestrian Miami O offense wont necessarily be ready for any kind of sudden bounce back.
MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.(lost to Ohio last time out)
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N ILLINOIS) - off a road win against a conference rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 7-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Miami O to cover
|11-12-22||Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5||45-19||Loss||-110||55 h 15 m||Show|
Georgia is off a huge win vs Tennessee last week by double digits . It was impressive to say the least against an explosive offense. Now in a letdown situation the Dawgs may not start as quickly vs a home side that deserves respect behind the viable arm of Will rogers and company. Note: Miss State HC Mike Leach has cashed 17 of 23 times in his career vs undefeated opposition. Georgia won 31- 24 at home last season in this series, failing to cover as -26.5 chalk and with a limited swing on this line, taking points with the home dog is not as far fetched as some pundits might suggest. Mississippi State has covered 2 of the L/3 meetings at home in this series.Georgia are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Miss State are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Play on Mississippi State to cover
|11-12-22||Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss||30-24||Loss||-110||53 h 49 m||Show|
Alabama enters this game vs Ole Miss in very cranky mood , after falling flat on their faces and getting upset SU vs LSU last time out. You can bet life was miserable in practice this week for the Crimson Tide, and now this massive group of 4 and 5 star athletes will be ready to get redemption and what could easily be a merciless Alabama explosion.
Saban is 13-0 SU in his career vs sides with a better record and 27-2 vs former assistants.
ALABAMA is 16-6 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992 with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 20 ppg.
CFB Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OLE MISS) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 8-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Alabama to cover
|11-12-22||Louisville +7 v. Clemson||16-31||Loss||-107||52 h 26 m||Show|
After a slow start Louisville has gone 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 tilts and are in a upward momentum drive and now deserve respect here vs a over rated Tigers side that lost last time out to Notre Dame by DDs a a fav. Note: CLEMSON is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite since 1992.
CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 29-8 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Louisville to cover
|11-12-22||Rice v. Western Kentucky -12.5||10-45||Win||100||50 h 6 m||Show|
Western Kentucky football program has had a long history of over powering performances late in the season. In week 11 games they are a perfect 13-0 L/13 opportunities and 9-0 SU/ATS L/9 chances. Im betting on another explosive effort here vs a Rice side that has a tendency to fall asleep at the proverbial wheel like their ugly 56-23 upset loss to Charlotte at home as 15 point favs a couple of weeks ago. Western Kentucky smashed Charlotte last week 59-7 and beat Rice last season by a 42-21 count. Rinse and repeat on board.
Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Hilltoppers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (RICE) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 34-67 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover
|11-12-22||James Madison v. Old Dominion +8||37-3||Loss||-110||51 h 41 m||Show|
JMU (5-3, 3-2) spent a week in the Top 25 after winning its first five games, including an upset of Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina. But JMU has lost three games in a row since as has ODU . While, the Dukes are not going to Bowl or allowed to be a championship side because of this being their first season in the FBS, they may not be as inclined to fight it out like a do or die situation. Meanwhile, the Monarchs are still in the hunt for a bowl bid, and need 3 straight wins to do so and with that said Im betting leave everything on the field today.
CFB road team vs. the money line (JAMES MADISON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 1-7 this season .
Play on Old Dominion to cover
|11-12-22||LSU v. Arkansas +4||13-10||Win||100||49 h 40 m||Show|
Im betting on a huge hangover for the LSU Tigers after upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide last time out making them vulnerable to being upset here today vs Arkansas side that fell asleep at the wheel last time out and were upset. Razorbacks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game which was the case in a 21-19 defeat vs under rated Liberty.
The two most recent meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points .
Arkansas is 8-1 ATS as a underdog of 16 or fewer points.
Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
CFB road team (LSU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-52 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Arkansas
|11-11-22||East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati||25-27||Win||100||58 h 52 m||Show|
East Carolina deserves respect here after 3 straight victories vs BYU, UCF, and Memphis. Meanwhile, Cincinnati seems to not playing with alot of motivation and the offense seems much more inconsistent than over the last few seasons, giving credence to me recommending we grab the points with a never say die underdog that plays with passion. Houston is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of E CAROLINA.E CAROLINA is 16-4 ATS L/20 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .
Play on East Carolina to cover
|11-09-22||Buffalo +1.5 v. Central Michigan||27-31||Loss||-105||26 h 51 m||Show|
Buffalo had a five game win streak abruptly come to an end vs Ohio last time out. on the road . However, it must be noted that Buffalo is looking to win its fourth road game of the season. A win would make the Bulls bowl eligible for the seventh time in program history and the fifth time in the last six seasons so they will be very motivated and ready for a bounce back effort.
Key projected difference maker: Buffalo has forced 19 turnovers on the season. The Bulls' lead the MAC with a +7 turnover margin. Add to that Bulls defense has been positively aggressive this season scoring a defensive touchdown in three of the last four games.
BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992BUFFALO is 14-3 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
CFB road team (BUFFALO) - off a big upset loss by 17 points or more as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-3 L/30 seasons for a 89% conversion rate!
Play on the Buffalo Bulls to cover
|11-08-22||Ohio v. Miami-OH +2.5||37-21||Loss||-110||11 h 3 m||Show|
The Battle of the Bricks goes tonight as up-trending Ohio takes on Miami Ohio in Oxford tonight. Im betting- Ohio has surprised alot of ppl this season behind a offense thats piling up top tier numbers. It must be noted that rhe Redhawks have one of the best defenses in the conference. Miami ranks first in scoring defense (21.4), second in total defense (348.0), first in rush defense (107.8), third in sacks (23) and third in interceptions (7). Miami's rush defense ranks 18th nationally. In five conference games the RedHawks are allowing 18.0 points per contest and have allowed just 10 touchdowns all MAC season.-- In conference play, opponents have reached the re zone 16 times, but have come away with touchdowns just 50% of the time.
Meanwhile, Ohio is ranked 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage.Thats important because Im betting on QB Gabbert who has won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford to keep up with Rourke and company and get us to the promised land with either a cover or a SU upset victory.
Projected key difference maker: In his first year with the football program, Graham Nicholson has not disappoin ted . He finished the season 15-20 on field goals, including 6-of-7 on attempts between 40-49 yards. He added 30 touchbacks on 65 kickoffs in 2021. He is 13-for-16 on field goals in 2022. He also had his first game-winning field goal, connecting on a 36-yard field goal with 21 seconds to go in the 17-14 win at Northwestern.
The RedHawks are 32-15-2 at home vs. Ohio, including a 30-28 victory in 2018 in the Bobcats' last visit.
OHIO U is 4-15 ATS L/19 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%)
MIAMI OHIO is 32-15 ATS ( L/47 when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%)MIAMI OHIO is 21-8 ATS off a double digit road win since 1992. which was the case last time out. Martin is 13-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.
Play on Miami O to cover
|11-05-22||Navy +18.5 v. Cincinnati||10-20||Win||100||44 h 17 m||Show|
Cincinnati lost last week to UCF and now are in a emotional letdown spot and vulnerable to starting slow despite of being in bounce back mode. Since last seasons play off run the Bearcats own a 1-6-1 ATS mark.
NAVY is 7-0 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 9-1 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons. NAVY is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Niumatalolo is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points as the coach of NAVY. Niumatalolo is 15-4 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of NAVY.
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36 or better minutes) are 55-16 SATS L/30 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.
Play on Navy to cover
|11-05-22||Michigan State +17.5 v. Illinois||23-15||Win||100||54 h 25 m||Show|
These two teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with Illinois getting national accolades, while Michigan state seems completely lost. However, for today at least Im betting on Michigan state finding a way to be competitive. After a huge passing game last week vs Nebraska (91% completion rate)-- Illinois Im betting regresses especially after having to endure a emotional letdown after playing in type of stadium that can sap your energy. Michigan State needs wins badly to get a Bowl invite, so Im betting they leave everything on the field today.
ILLINOIS is 2-10 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. ILLINOIS is 2-13 ATS in a home game where the total is 42 or less since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 1-9 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
Play on Michigan State to cover
|11-05-22||Tennessee v. Georgia -8||13-27||Win||100||55 h 5 m||Show|
Both these sides Tennessee and Georgia are explosive offensively but the difference maker comes via the Dawgs far superior D. The Dawgs are 10 ppg and 131 yards better on defense than the Volunteers. Georgia ranks 1st in red zone offense, and No.2 in Red Zone defense. Meanwhile, the Vols are ranked 82nd in the nation in overall D. Note: Dawgs HC Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU covering 31 times as a favorite of less than 20 points, and has won 8 straight games against undefeated foes.
CFB road team (TENNESSEE) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home favorites (GEORGIA) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. are 48-19 ATS L/30 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Georgia to cover
|11-05-22||Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5||35-28||Loss||-110||47 h 48 m||Show|
The UCF Knights are strong team especially when playing at home but have yet to notch a victory on the road in the American Athletic Conference this season and have not grabbed a win in Memphis since 2018 season. Im betting UCF will find it hard again to find a way to win here this week on the highway, vs a Memphis side that 11-0 coming off an open date going back 8 seasons and 3-0 under Silverfield. key here will be the tigers discipline Note: Memphis ranks sixth for fewest penalties in FBS football and are averaging just 4.25 penalties per game.
Memphis is also 7-0 ATS as a home dog since 2016.
MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS off 2 consecutive road lossesMEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season since 1992.MEMPHIS is 25-12 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game .
MEMPHIS is 6-1 against the spread versus UCF since 1992 at home.
Play on Memphis to cover
|11-05-22||Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma||38-35||Win||100||53 h 4 m||Show|
Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS as Big 12 away pups and are viable dogs in this spot based on their overall body of work during this campaign as compared to the Sooners inconsistent displays.
BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference underdog against an opponent coming off a SU/ATS win.
BAYLOR is 46-27 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November.Bears are 47-23 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sooners are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home against a side likr BU coming off consecutive SU/ATS victories.
Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
CFB home team (OKLAHOMA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 18-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate.
Play on Baylor to cover
|11-05-22||Texas Tech v. TCU -9||24-34||Win||100||51 h 12 m||Show|
TCU is red hot entering this game winning 8 straight and still undefeated, ranking 3rd in the nation in Scoring Offense, averaging 44.3 PPG.and go against a Texas Tech side that was blasted vs Baylor last week and looking emotional and physically drained after taking on quality opponents in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron.
CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are just 9-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on TCU to cover
|11-05-22||Iowa +4.5 v. Purdue||24-3||Win||100||50 h 19 m||Show|
Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point pups on the road at Iowa last season and now the Hawkeyes have revenge on board. I know both sides have played at the proverbial opposite end of performance spectrum , but Iowa showed some offensive uptick last week in a victory, and with a solid defensive group on the field ranking 5th overall on D Im betting they can make a game out of this and possibly get SU playback. IOWA is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 60-26 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.
Play on Iowa to cover
|11-04-22||Duke -9.5 v. Boston College||38-31||Loss||-110||60 h 37 m||Show|
Wow what an ugly outing for the Boston College last time out, losing 13-3 as 8-point road favorite vs UConn which drops their ATS record vs FBS sides this season to 1-6 ATS. With that said, Im betting on another ugly outing for the Golden Eagles this week vs a Duke side that has registered 35 and 45 points in back to back games . With BC averaging 17.3 PPG on offense this season I highly doubt they can keep up here tonight and as the game progresses should find themselves down by DDs.
Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Blue Devils are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Blue Devils are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Eagles are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
CFB road team (DUKE) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 63-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.
Play on Duke to cover
|11-03-22||Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +3||28-35||Win||100||36 h 52 m||Show|
Coastal Carolina are home dogs tonight where they deserve respect as is evident by a 17-2 SU in their last 19 overall , including 6-0 SU in revenge, and 2-0 SU/ATS as a underdog. Coastal Carolina lost in OT last season 30-27 in Boone and with big time revenge on board you can bet the home side will be fully awake and ready to perform.
Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win which w the case last time out.
Chadwell is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of COASTAL CAROLINA.
APPALACHIAN ST is 0-7 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.
CFB home team (COASTAL CAROLINA) - off a double digit road win, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 62-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.
Play on Coastal Carolina to cover
|11-02-22||Western Michigan +4.5 v. Bowling Green||9-13||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
Both these offenses are less than explosive, but overall according to my data and power rankings projections the difference maker will come via Western Michigan superior red zone defense where they rank top-30 in opponent conversion rate. Last time out the Broncos was suffocating allowing Miami just 10 points in a win and smashed and grabbed their way to 7 sacks. Note:The Broncos have seen a decrease in their FBS opponent rushing yards in each of the last four games since giving up a season-high 238 to Pittsburgh and Im betting the ground the lanes will once again be shut down forcing Bowling Green to the air making them alot more one dimensional and readable. Advantage Western Michigan.
Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Play on Western Michigan to cover
|10-29-22||Stanford +16.5 v. UCLA||13-38||Loss||-110||62 h 37 m||Show|
The Bruins (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) were defeated by Oregon 45-30 last week at Autzen Stadium Note:The Bruins are 3-6 SU/ATS coming off their first loss of the season. . That was a deflating loss for the Bruins and Im betting they are drained emotionally here and may come out a little flat.
Meanwhile, Ssnce giving up 40 or more points in each of its first three Pac-12 tilts, the Stanfords defense has really picked up on their tenacity and has now permitted its last three opponents to score 56 combined points and have won two straight games. Note: Cardinal HC David Shaw is 16-4 SU and 16-3 ATS when coming off two wins exact.
Shaw is 20-10 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field as the coach of STANFORD.
Stanford owns a 12 -2 SU record last 14 games in this series, covering 11 of those games.
Play on Stanford to cover
|10-29-22||South Alabama v. Arkansas State +10.5||31-3||Loss||-120||55 h 26 m||Show|
Last week South Alabama struggled to score and lost 10-6 to the Troy Trojans and a very physical game. Now in a letdown spot and physically/ emotionally drained Im betting they will have a hard time getting up off the matt in a tilt vs Arkansas State this Saturday. With formerly banged up QB James Blackman expected back in the llineup this week for the Red Wolves Im betting they will be competitive. S ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
Play on Arkansas State to cover
|10-29-22||SMU v. Tulsa +3||45-34||Loss||-110||129 h 31 m||Show|
The SMU Mustangs D is not looking good this season allowing 453 YPG vs FBS opposition and have been shredded against ground attacks as their No. 120th ranking trying to stop the run would indicate. With that said, Im betting on Tulsa RB Deneric Prince who enters this game off a career-best 231 yards performance last week to be a major catalyst in a Tulsa cover and possible outright win this week.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons.TULSA is 9-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). SMU is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. SMU is 1-8 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 6-17 ATS L/23 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%).
CFB road team vs. the money line (SMU) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more YPG) after 7+ games, after being out-gained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game are 4-34 SU L/30 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.
Play on Tulsa to cover
|10-29-22||North Texas v. Western Kentucky -10||40-13||Loss||-107||53 h 49 m||Show|
This is not a strong version of the North Texas football program taking to the field today against Western Kentucky especially from a defensive standpoint as is evident by allowing an average of 476.1 ppg and 34.5 ppg. I know the Mean Green are 3-1 in CUSA action but like I said having a Swiss cheese D is not optimal. going forward -or here today, for that matter. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is looking very strong after finding a way past UAB last week, and now sporting a 3-1 record in CUSA action while allowing just 19.5 ppg at home this season and can alos light it up offensively averaging 39.5 ppg at home. The only real weakness that the Hilltoppers have displayed is a lack of discipline, but Littrell is 2-9 ATS in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of NORTH TEXAS.
NORTH TEXAS is 7-21 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play with the average ppg diff clicking in at -24.7.
Note:N.Texas is 2-23-1 ATS record in conference tilts when they loss SU which the lines-makers believe will happen as do I.
CFB road team (NORTH TEXAS) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more PPG) after 7 or more games, after a loss by 6 or less points and 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Western Kentucky to cover
|10-29-22||Ohio State v. Penn State +15.5||44-31||Win||100||125 h 5 m||Show|
I know how powerful Ohio State can be, but Penn State Im betting can keep this game close enough to cover via a grinding ground game that is capable of turning this game into a slow crawl in the trenches. Note: Day is 0-6 ATS in road games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of OHIO ST.
CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons SU for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game are 45-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Penn State to cover
|10-29-22||Notre Dame +2.5 v. Syracuse||41-24||Win||100||51 h 50 m||Show|
Wow what an emotional hangover Syracuse must have after going into Death Valley and taking a big lead and then falling apart late and eventually losing to Clemson. The Orange had an opportunity of lifetime and blew it. Not a good situation for them here as Im betting they will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out a hungry Notre Dame side. ND as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, and they are coming off a victory of 4 points or more are 10-1 ATS . The Irish are 5-0 SUATS L/5 vs the ACC.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
Play on Notre Dame to cover
|10-27-22||UL-Lafayette v. Southern Miss +1.5||24-39||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
Both these teams are off 2 straight wins with back up QBs at the helm. Conventional handicapping has alot of pundits on Lafayette, but Im going to take a contrarian view here tonight in a tilt that features strong defensive units sitting inside the Top 35 in scoring defense (ULL 21st, USM 35th). Both have almost identical yards allowed per play and yards allowed per game with the superior offensive numbers belonging to Lafayette . Despite of that I like home field advantage to be a strong , advantage for this Southern Miss football program . key catalyst Im betting for Southern /Miss will be Frank Gore, Jr., who continues to lead the ground game with 568 rushing yards and four TDs. He averages 81.1 yards per contest rushing and 4.9 per carry.
Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Southern Miss holds a 40-11-1 series advantage, including a current nine-game winning streak heading into this contest including 6 straight wins at home .
Play on Southern Miss to cover
|10-22-22||Minnesota +4.5 v. Penn State||17-45||Loss||-110||59 h 40 m||Show|
Penn States perfect season record ended last week in a loss to the Michigan and they will now be in a letdown situation against a hungry and tough group of Gophers who after a 4-0 start have lost 2 straight. Last week the Nittany Lions D was shredded on the ground allowing a whopping 418 yards. Now against a strong Minnesota run attack behind the legs of Mohammed Ibrahim trouble looms for the home side here this Saturday on white out night.
Fleck is 8-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 11-2 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
Franklin is 7-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of PENN ST.Franklin is 3-15 ATS off a road loss as the coach of PENN ST.
CFB Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS 10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.
Play on Minnesota to cover
|10-22-22||Mississippi State +21 v. Alabama||6-30||Loss||-104||82 h 21 m||Show|
Alabama took part in a back forth emotional battle last week and lost on a ugly looking FG to Tennessee losing for the first time this season. That was an exhausting affair, and now Im betting instead of a giant rebound, Im expecting a slow start from Sabans now over valued crew. Note: Nick Saban in his career, js 0-5 ATS vs FBS opposition at home when coming off a SU/ATS loss Hey I know Mississippi State lost last week for the 2nd time this season to Kentucky, but I would at all not be surprised if they were not caught looking ahead to this game .
Leach is 33-13 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992
CFB Road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 28-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Mississippi state to cover
|10-22-22||Arizona State +3 v. Stanford||14-15||Win||100||77 h 15 m||Show|
Stanford is in a huge letdown situation after upsetting Notre Dame last time out, and will now be vulnerable vs up trending ASU side that defeated a decent Washington team a couple of weeks ago before their bye week. Now well rested Arizona State with the relief of having gotten rid of HC Herm Edwards and a new era under way Im betting use their fresh legs here to be competitive and get us the cover .
STANFORD is 2-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
Shaw is 3-11 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return as the coach of STANFORD.
Cardinal are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
Play on Arizona State to cover
|10-22-22||Purdue v. Wisconsin -2||24-35||Win||100||78 h 60 m||Show|
Purdue 4-0 L/4 is getting alot of respect for the great football they have played, but this is a bad matchup for them vs Wisconsin despite of what many pundits expect. I know the Badgers seem discombobulated and are off being edged by Michigan State, 34-28 last time out in double OT, but this is a home tilt that puts this team in a situation that makes getting a victory a must just to get back some lost respect which means they will leave everything on the field in a all out effort. From historical standpoint Wisconsin is 42-28 ATS in Big Ten tilts when sporting a .500 record. WISCONSIN is also 47-27 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
Note: Wisconsin 15-0 SU in this series since the 2003 season.
PURDUE is 0-6 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. PURDUE is 10-22 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
CFB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - an excellent offensive team (34 or more PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate!
Play on Wisconsin to cover
|10-22-22||Texas v. Oklahoma State +6.5||34-41||Win||100||77 h 47 m||Show|
This a key game for both Oklahoma State and Texas , as they have each already lost 1 game. With that said, Im expecting this to be a gritty battle that will be won in the trenches in physical fashion, and could easily be decided on the last possession of the game. Note:Texas HC Steve Sarkisian is just 3-13 SU away against opposition with a better record. Steve Sarkisian is 0-1 SU against Oklahoma State.
I know the Cowboys blew a lead to TCU last time out and lost in OT, but the this is a resilient program as they have 6 straight wins after a loss.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 43-26 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992.
The Cowboys have won five of their past six and 11 of their past 14 on Homecoming.
OSU has won eight of the past 12 matchups with Texas, as well as two of the past three played in Stillwater.
OSU is 7-2 in its past 10 and 16-7 in its past 23 games vs. AP Top 25 teams and 9- 4 in its last 13 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.
CFB home team vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate which obviously qualifies on this ATS line offering .
Play on Oklahoma State to cover
|10-22-22||Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5||20-16||Win||100||76 h 37 m||Show|
This totals selection is based on a projection system that I have used during the L/30 seasons. My assessment is that based on the type of football both sides are playing a lower scoring affair than the offered number should be expected.
Ball State has gone under in 4 of their L/5 overall.
Under is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.Under is 8-3 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.Under is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
BALL ST is 10-2 UNDER ) after playing a game at home over the last 3 season with a combined average of 50.8 ppg scored. Neu is 11-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of BALL ST with a combined average of 48.3 ppg scored.
CFB team against the total (E MICHIGAN) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate.
CFB team against the total (BALL ST) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 62-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.
Play on the UNDER
|10-22-22||Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5||27-34||Win||100||74 h 14 m||Show|
The Buffalo Bulls are currently in top form going 4-0 SUATS and deserve respect here getting points vs visiting Toledo. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG during that span including allowing back to back opponents to score 7 points. This kind of data and momentum gives us an edge on a possible SU win or a back door cover in competitive fashion. Note: The Bulls have not allowed points in the fourth quarter in any of their last four games. The Bulls have outscored their opponents, 55-7, in the first half over the last two games.
Buffalo owns a solid 12-4-1 ATS mark as a home underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS against better than .700 foes.
Buffalo is 3-0 ATS L/3 at home vs Toledo at home.The Bulls won the last meeting, 49-30, at UB Stadium in 2019.
CFB Road favorites (TOLEDO) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 39-14 ATS for a 74% conversion rate.
Play on Buffalo Bulls to cover
|10-21-22||UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky||17-20||Loss||-110||15 h 58 m||Show|
UAB owns the nation's third-ranked pass defense and will be key to slowing down the Western Kentucky offense that averages throwing the ball 44 times per game so far this season..This will be the fourth spread offense UAB has faced this season and they have faired very well as the Blazers have allowed opposition quarterbacks to complete just 54 percent of their passes and have held opposing sides to an average of just 176.6 passing yards per game.
Note: Western Kentucky has averaged 489 yards and 40 points per game, while UAB allows only 319 yards and 17 points per game. With said, this is a important game, and as almost is the case the better D will find a way to win. On the flipside the Blazers are a strong rushing team behind McBride and one of the nations most cohesive Offensive lines, but so far this season WKU has been a dominant run stopping group, but Im betting that wont be the case today.
The physicality of UABS defense and offense will be the difference maker tonight.
Clark is 12-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of UAB.Clark is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of UAB.UAB is 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. UAB is 10-2 ATS L/12 as C USA dog.
WKU is 0-8 ATS as single-digit conference chalk when facing an above .500 win percentage side.
Play on UAB to cover
|10-20-22||Troy +3 v. South Alabama||10-6||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
South Alabama has had a great start to their campaign garnering a 5-1 record to this point but in their two most recent games have been over rated by the lines-makers and failed to cover . Tonight against Troy (5-2) Im betting their dream season maybe abruptly upended. The Trojans have cashed 3 straight times against the spread and are on a 4 game winning run, and have cashed 5 straight times in this series and are not to be underestimated in their ferocity and ability to compete. Troy is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and have cashed 4 straight as underdogs overall.
S ALABAMA is 20-37 ATS after playing a game at home.
TROY is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 51-108 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.
CFB road team (TROY) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry are 160-91 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.
Play on Troy to cover
|10-15-22||San Jose State -7.5 v. Fresno State||10-17||Loss||-120||52 h 27 m||Show|
San Jose State 12-0 SUATS as a road favorite in games when coming off a double-digit win like last time out by a 40-7 count vs UNLV. Im betting on the Spartans up trending to continue here vs a Fresno State side that is 0-4 SU/ATS this season, with a lack of offense being a key problem for them (23.6 ppg). SAN JOSE ST is 23-8 ATS L/31 as a road favorite .
Plus we have revenge on board here by Brennan and company as Fresno State smashed San Jose State last season by a 40-7 count.
CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) - outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 14-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on San Jose State to cover
|10-15-22||Clemson -4.5 v. Florida State||34-28||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
Clemson at 6-0 is getting better with each passing week and have an edge over a Florida state side that has lost two straight after a fast start.Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series and gets the nod here as Im betting they continue their upward momentum.
Play on Clemson to cover
|10-15-22||Arizona v. Washington -14||39-49||Loss||-110||54 h 46 m||Show|
The Huskies have dropped two straight, including last week’s 45-38 loss at Arizona State and really need a big game, and Im betting they get it. note: Arizona QB Jayden de Laura the last time he was here with Arizona State was inserting a giant flag featuring the Washington State logo in the turf at midfield after leading the Cougars to an Apple Cup smash down last November. I know de Laura is not with the Cougars anymore but you can bet the Huskies will be primed for payback this Saturday and could easily be merciless in romp to a big DD victory.
ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS in road games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. ARIZONA is 4-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
NFL Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate.
Play on Washington to cover
|10-15-22||James Madison v. Georgia Southern +12.5||38-45||Win||100||55 h 8 m||Show|
James Madison at 5-0 gets all the headlines and alot of support from the pundits buy the Eagles (3-3) own the top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 11th-best passing offense in the nation and must not be underestimated in their abilities to keep things close because of their offensive prowess and give us in a worse case scenario a back door cover . With that said, will will go against the public darlings, and take the underdog. GA SOUTHERN is 8-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.
Play on the Georgia Southern Eagles to cover
|10-15-22||Louisiana Tech +7 v. North Texas||27-47||Loss||-120||6 h 18 m||Show|
The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-31 victory over UTEP to open Conference USA play, which was the programs six straight conference-opening win.Quarterback Parker McNeil has thrown for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per completion (14.8) and is more than capable of leading his team to a cover here and even a SU win. Note:LA Tech ranks third nationally with five plays from scrimmage over sixty yards. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in plays from scrimmage over 30 yards with 16. I know North Texas has won seven-straight C-USA matchups dating back to Oct. 30, 2021 which is the longest active streak in the league and the fourth-longest streak nationally, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to an end.LOUISIANA TECH is 5-0 ATS and straight up against NORTH TEXAS since 1992 here in this venue and a rinse and repeat situation is possibly at hand and more important a cover .
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 47-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on LA Tech to cover
|10-15-22||Alabama v. Tennessee +7.5||49-52||Win||100||55 h 1 m||Show|
Alabama QB Bryce Young is questionable and if he plays will be less than 100% giving an edge to what will be a hyped up home team ready to make an imprint on the SEC. Tennessee is the real deal behind stud QB QB Herndon Hooker and must be respected here getting points. I know the Vols have lost 15 straight to Bama, but the under valued Vols have already ended 5-game losing streaks to Florida and LSU and like the old saying goes 3s a charm.
CFB home team vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - good offensive team - scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Road favorites (ALABAMA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tennessee to cover
|10-15-22||Arkansas -1.5 v. BYU||52-35||Win||100||54 h 15 m||Show|
BYU is off a hard fought loss to Notre Dame last week, and now in. a emotional letdown state go against a tough Arkansas squad in a vulnerable state . Note: Cougars are just 1-8 ATS versus SEC opposition dating back 32 seasons. Arkansas HC Sam Pitman is 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in his career vs non conference opposition.
BYU is 19-37 ATS L/56 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Sitake is 5-14 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of BYU.
ARKANSAS is 23-9 ATS off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.
CFB home team (BYU) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more are 44-82 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.
Play. on Arkansas to cover
|10-15-22||Oklahoma State v. TCU -4.5||40-43||Loss||-110||1 h 41 m||Show|
CFB home team vs. the money line (TCU) - after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games are 33-2 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.
Play on TCU
|10-15-22||NC State v. Syracuse -3||9-24||Win||100||1 h 38 m||Show|
CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 42-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff at +22.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.
Play on Syracuse to cover
|10-15-22||Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas||21-24||Win||100||50 h 23 m||Show|
After smashing Oklahoma by a 49-0 count last week, I expect the Longhorns to be in an emotional letdown spot here in this tilt vs Iowa State. Iowa State after a close last time out to Kansas State now finds itself in desperation mode and Im betting they leave everything on the filed this week. Note: Cyclones HC Campbell is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog in conference tilts , including 10-0 ATS against winning sides.
TEXAS is 20-35 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
Iowa state has won and covered the last two meetings in this series.
Play on Iowa State to cover
|10-15-22||Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 49||21-24||Win||100||26 h 56 m||Show|
Texas shutout Oklahoma last week and the defense is obviously starting to show signs of up trending this season. Also after scoring 49 points last week a natural regression must be expected fro the Longhorns offense, especially in a letdown scenario. Meanwhile , Iowa State no matter what their record is entering this game, have remained a tough side to play against as the defense remains staunch, allowing 10 or less points in 4 tilts and allowing more than 14 points only once this season. Everything points to a low scoring tilt that remains on the low side of the total. Note: 7 of the L/8 meeting in Texas have stayed under the total.
Campbell is 10-2 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in all games he has coached since 1992.
CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (IOWA ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
|10-14-22||Navy +12.5 v. SMU||34-40||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
Navy has looked good of late after starting lethargically at 0-2. They have won 2 of their L/3 with the only loss a 13-10 heart breaker to military rivals Air Force. Today against SMU Im betting the Middies triple option run heavy offense keeps them in this game vs a SMU side thatS ranks 106th in rush yards allowed this season allowing 179 yards per game.
NAVY is 8-1 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 7-0 ATS in road games off an upset win as a home underdog which was the case last time out vs Tulsa .
SMU is 6-16 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%)
CFB team (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or better YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play 2 consecutive games are 10-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.
CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - mistake free team - 42 or less penalty yards per game, after dominating the time of possession last game (36+ minutes) are 44-15 ATS L/30 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Navy to cover
|10-13-22||Temple v. Central Florida -23||13-70||Win||100||24 h 20 m||Show|
Temple’s visits the Bounce House tonight in a game that Im betting will not go well for them. Temple just does not travel well going 0-6 SU/ATS L/6 away and that trend should stay intact vs team that is a defensive juggernaut as they lead the nation in red zone defense. Opponents have scored on just 47% of their trips to the red zone, converting on 9-of-19 attempts. The Knights have only allowed four touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips for opponents.
Duke shutout Temple in their first game this season, and than last time out scored just 3 points so scoring will be an issue this evening for them again. Meanwhile, UCF has averaged 35.6 ppg so far this season on offense and another points explosion is not out of the question on their home turf on Space night where they have won all 5 of these themed tilts. Note: The Owls have been destroyed by UCF in their last 3 meetings by an average 36.3 ppg.
Since 2017, the Knights are 33-3 SU in home games at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
TEMPLE is 0-8 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UCF) - after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 71-33 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on UCF to cover
|10-13-22||Baylor v. West Virginia +3.5||40-43||Win||100||24 h 43 m||Show|
Baylor is the overall superior side, but West Virginia is always dangerous because of their explosive offense. Here at home West Virginia Im betting has enough of an edge on this line to get us the cover. The Mountaineers are a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 at home in this series.
Note: Losing to Oklahoma State at home last time will take a little bit out the Bears and their performance could easily be muted.
Brown is 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of W VIRGINIA.
Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Mountaineers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Bears are 7-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
Play on West Virginia to cover
|10-12-22||UL-Lafayette v. Marshall UNDER 47||23-13||Win||100||11 h 40 m||Show|
Lafayette goes with a back up QB against a Marshall defense that ranks 13th in total defense and allows just 281 yards per game. Im betting they struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the the flip-side the visitors, has played a fairly solid brand of D, allowing only 1 of opponents to breach the 21 point plateau against them, and Im betting their stoppers find a way to control the Thundering herds offensive attack . Advantage to the under.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45.8 ppg scored.
LA LAFAYETTE is 10-1 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored.
Under is 7-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 15-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 21 games in October.Under is 39-15-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 55 conference games.Under is 13-5-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 27-11-1 in Ragin' Cajuns last 39 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
|10-08-22||Washington State +13.5 v. USC||14-30||Loss||-110||84 h 17 m||Show|
Washington State looks explosive offensively behind the arm of QB transfer Cameron Ward who is being looked at very closely by NFL scouts. I know USC has a fine group this season, but it must also be noted that USC is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. With a look ahead revenger against Utah on board next week, its not out of the realm of possibility that the Trojans could get caught looking ahead and a vulnerable spot as DD favs.
USC is 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON ST is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON ST is 6-0 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons. Dickert is 6-0 ATS after playing a game at home as the coach of WASHINGTON ST.
Play on Washington State to cover
|10-08-22||South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky||24-14||Win||100||84 h 56 m||Show|
Kentucky took a gut-wrenching, 22-19 loss at No. 14 Ole Miss last week, and despite of being angry because of bad calls, from the officials will have a hard time in what must be considered a huge letdown scenario.Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
South Carolina has had promising performances since its blowout loss to Georgia in Week 3. They can be excused for their performance vs one of college footballs top teams, so Im not underestimating their ability to compete vs a good but slightly over rated Kentucky side.
Play on South Carolina to cover
|10-08-22||Iowa v. Illinois -3||6-9||Push||0||60 h 7 m||Show|
The Illinois defense is currently ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring D allowing a little over eight points per game. Here today against a Iowa side that struggles to score averaging just 16.4 ppg they have an edge. Last week the Illini held Wisconsin to just 10 points and a rinse and repeat situation is on board here this week in what the lines-makers are suggesting will be a low scoring battle. Illinois has the better offensive flow and will get the job done and bring us home the dough.
Fighting Illini are 7-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
CFB home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 27-3 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.
Play on Illinois to cover
|10-08-22||Appalachian State v. Texas State +19||24-36||Win||100||83 h 21 m||Show|
Texas State owns the 4th-best defense in the Sun Belt and the No. 2 pass defense and have the ability to stay within the underdog line here at home vs the offensively explosive Mounties .
Despite of App States offensive attributes they have looked inconsistent at times this season and with Coach Shawn Clarke at the helm of the Mountaineers they are just 8-15-1 ATS as favs. Meanwhile, Texas State is , 6-1-1 ATS when a home dog the past three years plus, and are 6-1-1 ATS at home versus teams with a better record than themselves.
TEXAS ST is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out.
Play on Texas State to cover
|10-08-22||Washington v. Arizona State +14||38-45||Win||100||81 h 46 m||Show|
The Sun Devils have taken part in a tough schedule with three previous opponents ranked in top 11 of the AP Poll at the time of their tilts. Now battle tested against top tier opposition Im betting they will not be intimidated here at home and get us the cover like they did last week. Note: Wash is just 1-8 ATS lL9 as road chalk of 7 or more points . Meanwhile, the Sun Devils 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this series and deserve respect getting this many points . The last time the Huskies won in Tempe was 2001 with a late FG.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 27-11 ATS in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.
Play on Arizona State to cover
|10-08-22||Virginia Tech +15 v. Pittsburgh||29-45||Loss||-110||80 h 27 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Panthers lost at home to Georgia Tech as 21-point favorites last time out, and despite of wanting to get redemption may find the sledding tougher than anticipated once again this week. I know the Hokies do not inspire most bettors, but they still own a defense, that allows just 310-YPG ranking No. 26 overall in the nation. Considering the issues Pittsburgh has shown so far it very much looks like we have en edge taking a 2 TD or more underdog in this spot play.
Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Narduzzi is 10-20 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of PITTSBURGH.PITTSBURGH is 16-32 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game.
Play on VTech to cover