| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13-23 | East Tennessee State v. Butler UNDER 147 | 47-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. BUTLER is 13-2 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored. CBB Home teams against the total (BUTLER) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 30-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average for a 79% conversion rate. Play under |
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| 11-12-23 | North Carolina Central v. Georgia UNDER 146 | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a score that hits in the low 140s, which gives us a 1 to 2 possession edge on this totals offering.
White is 20-8 UNDER in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached with a combined average of 138.1 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GEORGIA) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 7+ ATS losses in last 8 games are 35-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 135.2 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-11-23 | Utah Tech v. Jacksonville State UNDER 144.5 | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total out at 139 giving us a 2 to 3 possession value to the under. JACKSONVILLE ST is 21-8 UNDER after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average fo 130.1 ppg scored. Harper is 36-24 UNDER as a home favorite or pick as the coach of JACKSONVILLE ST with a combined average of 139.5 ppg scored.. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (JACKSONVILLE ST) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season with a combined average of 135.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UTAH TECH) - in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 180-87 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the combined average of 138.5 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-10-23 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
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The Lakers have lost two straight and have allowed 120 or more points in 3 of their L/4 and in 5 road games this season have allowed an average of 221.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Suns have averaged 120.3 ppg at home this season while allowing 117 ppg. After the recent negative results from the Lakers Im betting on a very aggressive take no prisoners effort from them , and for the Suns to reciprocate with some offense fireworks themselves and for this offered total to be eclipsed. The suns have gone over in 5 of their L/6 overall NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (14.5 or less TO's) are 60-25 over L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 11-10-23 | Arizona v. Duke UNDER 154.5 | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . My projections for this tilt estimate a combined score that will plateau in the mid to high 140s giving us a two to 3 plus possession edge on this offered total to the under. ARIZONA in their L/152 road games in non-conference games have seen a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored. DUKE in their L/6 home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 144.7 ppg. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (ARIZONA) - after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better against opponent after a game - shooting 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower are 41-14 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with the average combined ppg clicking in at 149.1 ppg. CBB Road teams against the total (ARIZONA) - team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 101-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 136.1 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DUKE) - with four starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games are 30-10 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of 146.6 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-09-23 | North Florida v. Charleston Southern UNDER 149.5 | 81-70 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score in the low to mid 140s giving us a 2 to 3 possession edge to the under. N FLORIDA is 14-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 season with a combined average of 140.9 ppg scored. N FLORIDA is 20-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 with a combined average of 143.6 ppg scored. CHARLESTON SO is 22-10 UNDER L/32 after a win by 10 points or more with a combined average of 140.4 ppg scored. CBB Home teams against the total (CHARLESTON SO) - excellent ball handling team from last season - committed 12 or less turnovers/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from weak division 1-A conferences are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 132.3 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-08-23 | Western Illinois v. SMU OVER 144.5 | 53-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections for this tilt between W. Illinois and SMU are closer to the 150 plateau which gives us some very viable value here with an over wager. SMU is 11-3 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 152.5 ppg scored. Play over |
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| 11-07-23 | Albany v. Massachusetts UNDER 146.5 | 71-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score in the high 130s, plateauing in around 141 as a expected combined offensive output. CBB Home teams against the total (MASSACHUSETTS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) from last year are 93-49 UNDER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 136..6 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MASSACHUSETTS) - marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record are 354-222 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 140.4 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-06-23 | Central Arkansas v. Tulsa UNDER 148 | 53-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score of 144 points giving us great value on a score that fails ti eclipse this totals offering. Tulsa has hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)Central Arkansas has hit the Team Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)TULSA is 19-6 UNDER L/25 in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 . CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TULSA) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 7+ ATS losses in last 8 games are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 11-06-23 | Niagara v. Notre Dame OVER 125.5 | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score in the low 130s which qualifies on this Totals offering to the over. I know Notre Dame is expected to play tough D, this season buy Im betting they do some damage offensively tonight against a under rated Niagara team that will also answer back with enough production to help us get this over bet to cash. NBA teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (NOTRE DAME) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 13+ losses in last 15 games, bad team from last season (20% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year are 25-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 135.5 ppg scored. Play over |
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| 11-04-23 | Suns v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | 100-112 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
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Sometimes afternoon games have a tendency to see teams start slowly which effects offensive production . But according to my projections this line is still off and a tad to low. PHOENIX is 23-12 OVER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored. Nurse is 57-34 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached in his career with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 36-23 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots 52-15 OVER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the over |
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| 11-03-23 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate a total combined score that will reach the low 220s which gives us at least a 1 /2 possession edge on this offered number to the under. MIAMI in their L/12 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 struggling teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. Play under |
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| 11-01-23 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 228 | 109-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
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The Grizzlies are having problems scoring, thanks in part the absence of Morant, Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles), Luke Kennard (concussion) and Santi Aldama (ankle). The cohesiveness is just not there and that will once again hamper their point production here in Salt Lake City tonight . The Grizzlies is well aware of this and will be focused on good transitional D instead of trying to run and gun which will effect this total to the under. MEMPHIS is 15-4 UNDER against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored,
MEMPHIS in their L/12 games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 50% or worse, has seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored, MEMPHIS is 14-3 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving 2 struggling teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 31-2 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 10-30-23 | Wolves v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 | 113-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
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The Wolves have started out their campaign exhibiting very good defensive posture in transition, and Im betting they will continue that type of play here on the road vs a team that they know like to run and gun. Minnesota has allowed 97 and 90 points in their 2 games , and are more than capable of slowing down a Atlanta side, that Im betting is on tired legs playing their 3rd game in 4 night and that will be in regression mode after a big upset win on the road vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. It must also be noted that the Hawks HC coach Quinn Snyder, wants to see better defense from his team and has made that clear multiple times in press conferences . With that said, Im betting on a much more defensive affair here than the linesmkaers expect. MINNESOTA is 19-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored. MINNESOTA is 17-7 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 44-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with a combined 227.4 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER |
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| 10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
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I know both these sides have been involved in high scoring games in both times they have been on the court thus far this season, but my own projections based on coaching tendencies and the type of usual hoops implemented Im betting on a more conservative affair. Lue is 34-19 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. (Clippers lost in Utah last time out as favs118-120 ) LA CLIPPERS are 15-4 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a home win, sub par team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 27-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 10-27-23 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 227 | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate that the Pistons will score between 103 and 108 points. Note: CHARLOTTE is 13-0 UNDER when they allow 103 to 108 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored. Im also projecting that Charlotte will score between 109 and 114 points. DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.6 ppg scored. Advantage to the under based on my projections NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 26-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 232 | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 22 m | Show | |
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I cannot see alot of defense being played by the Suns this season with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal running and gunning with all out wreck-less abandon. Im betting your going to need to score at a high rate to compete with the Suns, and tonight thats what Im betting the capable Golden state offense will be up to doing. My own projections estimate both these sides will score 214 or more points . Note:PHOENIX is 23-0 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 246.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 31-4 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 248.9 ppg scored. Golden State had an average implied point total of 120.1 last season, which is 3.1 points higher than its implied total in Tuesday’s game (117).Last season, Golden State scored more than 117 points in a game 50 times.The 116.1-point average implied total last season for Phoenix is 1.1 more points than the team’s 115-point implied total in this matchup. PHOENIX is 16-5 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 241.3 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208.5 | 89-94 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
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Im betting Miami comes out here ready to leave everything on the floor in last ditch effort to stave off elimination and that alone will elevate their expected point total. Meanwhile the capable Nuggets playing on their own home floor with championship aspirations just a victory away will reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game I have pegged to eclipse this total. MIAMI in their L/35 games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 223.3 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 26-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play over |
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| 06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
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When these teams played here in Miami back in Feb the Nuggets won 112-108 and my current line and total projections estimate a number closer to 219/220 giving us 3 full possession value with an over wager. I know the Heat will continue to be physical and try disrupt the Nuggets flow . However, with time to adjust and shake off some rust Im betting the Nuggets come out here in very aggressive fashion and force the Heat to reciprocate with some fire works of their own or be blown off the court, which will translate into a higher score than the lines-makers anticipate. DENVER is 18-7 OVER off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. Malone is 15-5 OVER off a close home loss by 3 points or less as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 224 ppg scored. Over is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. MIAMI is 20-11 OVER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 11-4 in Heat last 15 home games.Over is 19-7 in Heat last 26 games following a straight up win.Over is 13-5 in Heat last 18 games following a ATS win.Over is 20-8 in Heat last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 118-74 OVER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 226-158 OVER L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play over |
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| 06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 19 m | Show | |
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After a grueling 7 game series vs the Celtics the Heat will be on tired legs here and in an emotional letdown spot, that will have them unable to play a physical style of defensive ball. On the flip side the Nuggets are well rested and healthy and should come out here on fire ready to run and gun. This combination Im betting will see this Totals offering eclipsed in more wide open game than the lines-makers are expecting. Over is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 38-14 OVER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 203.5 | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
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Im betting game 7 of this series will be a grueling take no prisoners physical type of event that will have both sides focused on precise mistake free hoops out of transition. That Im betting will make for a lower scoring event that does not eclipse this total.BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a straight up loss.NBA ( BOSTON/ MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 7th game of a playoff series is 60-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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| 05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
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The Celtics in their last two games are playing their best defensive basketball of the season, and Im betting they keep the pressure on tonight against a Miami Heat side that has regressed since game three of this series. Im expecting a very physical game here, as the proverbial noose gets tighter around the neck of the Heat, and with elimination at hand for the Celtics for them to be even more attentive in transition, which will combine to keep this game on the lower side this offered totals number .BOSTON is 9-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 149-94 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.Play under |
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| 05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
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The Celtics top tier D, was finally on display last time out holding the Heat to under triple digits and Im betting on more top tier defensive hoops from the Celtics in transition tonight and for the Heat to suffer further offensive regression after a top tier performance in game 3 of this series.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 201.3 ppg scored.MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER in road games after scoring 100 points or less this season. with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 74-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 224.5 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
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The Lakers are now 1 loss away from losing this series and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. Now in desperation mode Im betting on a hugely aggressive effort from the senior laden Lakers, that will see them leave everything on the floor . As has been evident of late, the Nuggets just wont go away and give this game to the Lakers, but instead fire back with offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt that Im betting eclipses this total.
DENVER is 48-33 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Nuggets last 8 road games.Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Finals games. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 34-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 85-43 OVER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings.Over is 15-7-2 in the last 24 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over |
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| 05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 222.5 | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
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Because the Lakers are backed into the proverbial corner after going down 2-0 in this series Im betting they come here in aggressive run and gun fashion and the Nuggets will have no choice but to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. Advantage to the over. Note: LA LAKERS in their L/36 games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 33-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
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The Nuggets came out of gate in game 1 running and gunning , but looked a little weary in the 2nd half of that tilt with the pace dropping perceptively and the Lakers adjusting on defense. Under is 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 11-4-1 in Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 11-3-1 in Nuggets last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 43-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA play off Game 2’s after a Game 1 over result , have seen the under go 41-26 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors in the last five seasons. Play under |
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| 05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
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The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. DENVER is 42-23 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227.5 | 97-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over. Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Play over |
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| 04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks OVER 207.5 | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
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This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.
NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
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We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
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I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and we will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. Play under |
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| 04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
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Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last 14 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored. Play over |
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| 04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 240.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
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My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the under. SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. Play on the under |
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| 04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 213.5 | 84-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
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Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show | |
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Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 208 | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
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Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Play on the over |
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| 04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 231 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here. With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games) The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense. MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week) MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 04-09-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 105-121 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
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The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Play UNDER |
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| 04-08-23 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | 151-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
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Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are off 129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. Play on the over |
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| 04-07-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 225.5 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
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Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall. Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games. Play over |
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| 04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
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As Philadelphia prepares for a play off run, they have begun to hone their defensive skills and are not not running and gunning like they were during their mid season portion of their so far successful campaign. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed. the last time the 76ers played the Heat back on March 1st the held the Heat to just 96 points. MIAMI is 10-2 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone Under in 4 straight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 road games. Im betting on another lower scoring affair in this spot play. Spoelstra in 280 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI has seen a combined average score of 202.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this Totals offering. The L/4 meetings in this series have also seen one of these teams not eclipse the 100 point plateau. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in April games are 94-50 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 04-02-23 | Suns v. Thunder UNDER 236 | 128-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
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When these teams played back on March 13 Oklahoma City grabbed a 124-120 win, but Im betting we do not reach the combined plateau in this tilt. It must be noted that the Suns are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball, as is evident by allowing 105, 103, 100, and 93 points in their L/4 trips to the hardwood and will now not deviate from that strong transitional posture, making for what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. It must also be noted that PHOENIX is 21-9 UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 16-5 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games following a straight up loss. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 46-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 44-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 04-02-23 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 244.5 | 130-132 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
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Atlanta took out Dallas 130-122 last time they met in Jan on the 18th. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs will in the rematch will not try to run and gun again against the Hawks, and Im betting will instead be more conservative in transition. DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 road games. DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. Kidd is 11-2 UNDER after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 26-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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| 04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Thee teams can light up the board, but in this type of game defense is what will bring home the victory. Im betting on a grueling physical defensive event that will remain on the low side of the total. Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. CONNECTICUT is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 133.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-6 UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. - Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 23-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 178-012 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-31-23 | Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 229.5 | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
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You have heard of slugfest , well this tilt Im betting wont be one of them. Get ready for a Sleepfest instead between to team with nothing left to play for other than a strong draft choice. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 home games. Under is 7-0 in Pistons last 7 road games. DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 lower tier teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 27-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (DETROIT) - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (118 PPG or more) are 64-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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| 03-30-23 | UAB v. North Texas OVER 127.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. The Blazers are yet again one of the highest scoring teams in the country under Andy Kennedy and have successfully in their two most recent meetings this season been able to force N.Texas into opening up as is evident by a 76-69 Neutral court win last time they met in the Conference play offs, and their last regular season game that saw N.Texas procure a 82-79 victory. Both these teams are solid at the charity stripe, which is key to this over bet. UAB is 9-1 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game this season. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (N.TEXAS/UAB) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game).are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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| 03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
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Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season/4th in defensive efficiency and rank 18th in pace, while the Bucks rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams can score in bunches but in this type of affair between two of the top teams in the NBA a more conservative defensive minded approach must be expected especially with the play offs around the corner. Also the Bucks played last night in run gun fashion posting 149-136 win so instant offensive regression and tired legs vs a strong defensive side will effect their aggressiveness here and overall output giving us an edge on a under wager. Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games playing with no rest. Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. MILWAUKEE in 57 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored. Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. BOSTON in 18 road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams are 31-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-29-23 | Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 228.5 | 141-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
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Clippers always seem to play a more aggressive offensive style on the road, and Im betting nothing changes tonight against their hosts their explosive hosts the Memphis Grizzlies. Over is 21-8 in Clippers last 29 road games. Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.(Beat the Bulls 124-112 last time out) Over is 18-7-1 in Grizzlies last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 overall. NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
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| 03-28-23 | Wisconsin v. North Texas OVER 115 | 54-56 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 2 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (North TEXAS /WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two below average offensive teams (63-67 PPG) are 36-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of 131.4 ppg going on the board. Play over |
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| 03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State OVER 137 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate both sides to eclipse the 70 point plateau giving us value with an over wager in todays NCAA matchup between Michigan State and Kansas State. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 OVER after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season with a combined average of 1461. ppg scored. KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.1 ppg scored. KANSAS ST is 8-1 OVER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.3 ppg scored. KANSAS ST in their L/31 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 147.6 ppg scored. Play over |
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| 03-21-23 | Celtics v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | 132-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Kings will need to ramp up their D here against a strong Boston side. The Kings have done a decent job on defense for the most part of late, but did have a down effort defensively last time out allowing 128 points in a loss to the Jazz. SACRAMENTO is 39-21 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Meanwhile, the Celtics rank 7th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating and ranked 19th in pace, and will be primed to stand tall here defensively against an explosive side. Under is 18-8 in Kings last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-3 in Celtics last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 20-8 in Celtics last 28 games playing on 2 days rest. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 35-11 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 74-32 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Play UNDER |
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| 03-21-23 | North Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 124 | 65-59 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections mkae this total closer to 128 giving us value with on over wager. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (N.Texas OKLAHOMA ST) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 30-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 136.9 ppg. Play over |
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| 03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga UNDER 156.5 | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. TCU will not run and gun here today with a superior offense, and instead will be primed to turn this into a grinding physical affair . The Horn Frogs have slowed some of the most explosive offenses in the nation that come from the Big 12. TCU has allowed an average of 68 ppg this season. GONZAGA is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season . GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in road games after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games this season. TCU is 8-2 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. TCU is 10-1 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GONZAGA/TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-18-23 | USC Upstate v. Indiana State UNDER 158 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. USC UPSTATE is 7-1 UNDER in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 134 ppg going on the board. Dickerson is 6-0 UNDER after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls as the coach of USC UPSTATE with a combined average of 128,5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (USC UPSATE/INDIANA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-17-23 | Wizards v. Cavs UNDER 220.5 | 94-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
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Cleveland runs at a snails pace ranking 30th in the NBA and rank 1st in ppg allowed in the league and just 25th in ppg offense . CLEVELAND is 13-4 UNDER in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons like Washington with a combined average of 209.2 ppg going on the board. Im betting Cleveland will control the pace of this game , which will result in a lower scoring affair. Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. CLEVELAND is 12-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored. Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Play UNDER |
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| 03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier UNDER 152 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 93 h 41 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play UNDER |
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| 03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
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Orlando took out the Suns by a 114-97 count the last time they played this season back on Nov 11. Because of the style of hoops both sides play against comparative sides, a under wager makes sense , based on my own projections which estimate a total closer to 225. PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 11-3 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored..ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. The Magic played little or no D, in a ugly loss to San Antonio last time out, and the coaching staff was not impressed. Im expecting a more concerted and attentive effort in transition here tonight by the Magic. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 34-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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| 03-16-23 | Oral Roberts v. Duke UNDER 146.5 | 51-74 | Win | 100 | 82 h 37 m | Show | |
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Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ORAL ROBERTS) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. |
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| 03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 235.5 | 126-134 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
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Clippers are deliberate side, that ranks 24th in pace, and Im betting they will be even more conservative here in transition tonight against an explosive offensive opponent which will result in a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers estimate. Kerr is 21-8 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored.( Golden State took a 123-112 event vs the Suns last time out). LA CLIPPERS are 25-8 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 21-6 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78 Play on the UNDER |
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| 03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls UNDER 239 | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
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After playing a physical wide open game vs the Bucks last time out Im betting on an emotional letdown situation to rare its ugly head here tonight in Chicago for Sacramento. I also expect a more concerted defensive effort from the Kings after imploding defensively in the 2nd half of the above mentioned game vs the Bucks . Meanwhile the Bulls who rank 20th in offense and 10th and defense behind the 17th ranked pace will be especially careful in transition tonight vs an explosive side which will help us keep the combined score on the low side of the total. CHICAGO is 8-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 210.5 ppg scored.
Brown is 17-6 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game as the coach of SACRAMENTO with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored. Donovan is 33-11 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with acombined average of 213.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CHICAGO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 50-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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| 03-13-23 | Bucks v. Kings UNDER 244.5 | 133-124 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
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My projections estimate a combined score of 232, giving us tremendous value on this public totals offering. MILWAUKEE is 26-11 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 15-7 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-12-23 | Blazers v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 110-127 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Pelicans have averaged just 107 ppg on offense in their L/5 trips to the hardwood, and depend on being conservative on transition which results in slow placed games. The current 5 game run has see a combined average of just 218.8 ppg scored. The Pelicans currently rank 8th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland has also had problems being consistent on offense of late , and despite of a big output last time out in a 120-119 loss to the 76ers have seen 5 of their L/7 overall remain on the low side of the offered total. Im expecting offensive regression here especially with this being the Blazers 6th straight rad game. Im betting their tired legs will have them not willing to take part in a run and gun affair, which the Pelicans dont want any part of anyway. Under is 6-0 in Pelicans last 6 overall.Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season.NEW ORLEANS is 23-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 UNDER \ when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 218.6 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 18-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored. Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 12-5 in Trail Blazers last 17 road games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 70-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. Play under |
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| 03-12-23 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 134 | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Purdue has defeated the Nittany Lions twice this year (76-63 at The Palestra on Jan. 8; 80-60 in Mackey Arena on Feb. 1). Im betting on a output somewhere in the same range which gives us an edge with a over bet.Painter is 15-3 OVER in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 as the coach of PURDUE.Shrewsberry in his L/23 games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better as the coach of PENN ST has seen a combined average score of 139.7 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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| 03-11-23 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 134-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
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My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us at least a two full possession value to the under. Bostons well rested and with the play offs approaching quickly will continue to hone their key defensive skills . Boston operates at the 20th ranked pace in the NBA and owns the 4th best defensive rating on the league. Note: Boston has gone under in 8 of their L/9 with 2 days rest and have gone under in 14 of their L/16 as 8 point or less road chalk. Atlanta has gone under in 8 of their L/9 as conference home dogs and are 0-5 under L/5 in this series vs Boston with the average combined score clicking in at 208.2 ppg. Snyder is 44-22 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 204.4 ppg scored. BOSTON is 7-0 UNDER in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored.BOSTON is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 13-3 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 219.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 15-7 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 52-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a win against a division rival are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-07-23 | 76ers v. Wolves OVER 229 | 117-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
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Philly has really been ratcheting up their offense of late scoring an average of 124.8 ppg in their L/5 trips to the court, and Im betting their aggressive offensive posture will continue here tonight against the Wolves who have allowed +115 ppg at home this season. Note: The 76ers have allowed more than 113 ppg on the road this season and my projections estimate a number closer to 114 for the Wolves offensive output. PHILADELPHIA is 16-0 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with the combined average of 254.6 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 250.8 ppg scored. (Philly took a 147-143 win vs Pacers last time out) MINNESOTA is 25-7 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored.( Minnesota took out Sacramento last time out by a 138-134 count) NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 ( MINNESOTA/ PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/27 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the over |
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| 03-06-23 | San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 160.5 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
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West Coast Tournament - Semifinals - Orleans Arena - Paradise, NV My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. GONZAGA is 12-4 UNDER after 7 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 160 points (GONZAGA /SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-06-23 | Pelicans v. Kings UNDER 237.5 | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
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Sacramento is off a exhausting back and forth game vs Minnesota last time out losing a 138-134 dog fight and will be in a natural letdown state here and an obvious regressionary offensive output result could easily be the result . That Im betting directly effects this combined score to the under. Note: The Pelicans are banged up and their offensive flow is off, as is evident by averaging 105.4 ppg in their L/5 overall and have failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 2 of thier L/3. The Pelicans have also gone under the total in 6 of their L/7 and 20-5 UNDER after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg. I know the Kings have revenge on board for a DD loss to the Pelicans back on Feb 5th but it must also be noted that NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 77-39 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 30-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight games are 60-30 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-05-23 | Northwestern v. Rutgers OVER 126.5 | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 131 which gives us a full two plus possession value on this totals offering. NORTHWESTERN in their L/34 games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 137.1 ppg scored. Pikiell L/34 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game as the coach of RUTGERS have seen a combined average of 129.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (RUTGERS /NORTHWESTERN) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a favorite are 49-16 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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| 03-04-23 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 231.5 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
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Houstons 10 division games this season have seen a combined average of. 224.2 ppg scored. The Rockets rank 29th in ppg offense and rank 15th in pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio is banged up and has scored an average of just over 108 ppg in their L/5 as they have slowed down their pace perspicaciously and focused alot more on on paying attention defensively in transition. Everything points to this being lower scoring than the lines-makers offered number. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG are 70-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Play under |
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| 03-03-23 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets UNDER 234 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
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Memphis ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season, while Denver ranks 12th in ppg allowed along with a pace that ranks 19th in the league. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 230 giving us a 2 possession advantage to the under on this offering. Under is 9-3-1 in Nuggets last 13 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. (Denver poured down 133 points in a win vs Houston last time out and now a regression from a offensive standpoint is expected) Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 13-3-1 in Grizzlies last 17 overall. MEMPHIS in 10 games as a road underdog this season have seen a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 27-14 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 26-8 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 24-10 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 228.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 ATS L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-10 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings. Play on the UNDER |
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| 03-03-23 | Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 234 | 103-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
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Both the Jazz and Thunder have been short-handed since the All-Star break and its interrupted their offensive flow. Utah has seen all 3 game they have played since the all star game stay under the total, and Im betting this contest will also fall below the lines-makers projections. OKLAHOMA CITY in their L/13 home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season have seen a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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| 03-03-23 | Campbell v. Longwood OVER 131 | 81-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a score closer to 136 which gives us plenty of value to cash an over ticket . CAMPBELL is 10-3 OVER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 137.3 ppg scored. Aldrich is 22-12 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of LONGWOOD with a combined average of 144.6 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (LONGWOOD) - off a home loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 26-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 150.2 ppg. Play over |
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| 03-03-23 | Gardner-Webb v. USC Upstate UNDER 135 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 UNDER in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 118.7 ppg scored.GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114.8 ppg. Play UNDER |
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| 03-02-23 | Pacers v. Spurs UNDER 238.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
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San Antonio is banged up with a boatload full of injures and that in itself is effecting their offensive flow. as is evident by averaging just over 107 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood and currently rank 28th in ppg offense in the NBA. The kind of hoops they are playing because of their short handed status must be framed as "survival mode" . So their pace has slowed down precipitously, as well as their aggressiveness in transition. Tonight against Indiana side that ranks just 21st in offensive efficiency, Im expecting a much slower and lower scoring game than the lines-makers expect . INDIANA is 13-3 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.2 ppg. scored. INDIANA is 19-9 UNDERafter playing a road game this season with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off a road win, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 80-42 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 68-30 L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 03-02-23 | Appalachian State v. South Alabama OVER 129 | 61-68 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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| 02-28-23 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 236.5 | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
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These two sides are separated by one loss in the tight Western Conference standings and tonight as both jostle for play off positioning you can bet that a close physical game could easily be on the agenda. I know they played a wide open game last time they met in early Feb, but that was then and this is now and the situation has changed. GOLDEN STATE is 17-5 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. Under is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-1-2 in Trail Blazers last 11 Tuesday games. Under is 5-1-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 8-3 in Trail Blazers last 11 road games. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND/ GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Tuesday nights are 47-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the under |
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| 02-28-23 | Spurs v. Jazz UNDER 236.5 | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
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Spurs enter on. a-horrendous losing run and are now in full tank mode as they play with little or no ambition or energy , as is evident by only 108.6 ppg on average in their L/5 most recent games. Im betting they play survival hoops here tonight against a side that outguns them whihc Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.6 ppg scored. UTAH is 24-11 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. UTAH is 32-17 UNDER (+13.3 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Under is 17-7-1 in Jazz last 25 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 home game. Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 overall. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 48-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 66-27 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-28-23 | Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 237 | 124-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
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My projections make this total closer to 231 which gives us a full three possession edge to the under. Dallas is ranked 29th in pace in the league and 12th in ppg allowed and 18th in ppg offense. Meanwhile, Pacers rank 21st in offensive efficiency . DALLAS is 18-6 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.6 ppg scored. DALLAS is 11-2 UNDER in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average 212.5 ppg scored. Kidd is 32-18 UNDER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 218.9 ppg scored. INDIANA is 19-9 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DALLAS) - in non-conference games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA t where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-27-23 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 223 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
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The Knicks offense is hitting on all cylinders of late and their D, is also standing tall. The Celtics who rank 20th in pace and 7th in ppg allowed are well aware of the Knicks current form, and will be primed to buckle down in transition, which Im betting limits the Knicks offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Knicks who rank 28th in pace in the league and 9th in ppg allowed will also be formidable defenders in a game that Im betting will be physical /grinding and lower scoring. BOSTON is 11-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 53-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 3 straight games are 81-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-27-23 | Norfolk State v. North Carolina Central OVER 140.5 | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. NC CENTRAL is 7-1 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season with a combined average of 147.7 ppg scored. NORFOLK ST is 20-7 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. NORFOLK ST is 6-0 OVER in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined 151.5 ppg scored. Road teams against the total (NORFOLK ST) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 54-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 02-27-23 | Bellarmine v. North Florida OVER 140.5 | 76-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
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| 02-26-23 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 233.5 | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
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Take no prisoners all out one way hoops is what Minnesota has implemented in last season games for a while, now is as is evident by the following trends. MINNESOTA is 10-0 OVER in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.7 ppg scored. Finch is 13-0 OVER in road games in February games as the coach of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 249.8 ppg scored. Minnesota is 5-0 OVER L5 conf games and are 5-0 L/5 OVER awa . Golden State is banged up but there is still enough talent to soldier forward and put points on the board, especially against. side that will come out firing bullets and force them into a wide open affair. GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 OVER after a win by 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 239.1 ppg scored. (Beat Golden State 116-100 last time out) Golden State is 8-0-2 OVER L/10 playing on Sundays and 15-1 OVER after a day off Series These teams have combined for a (236.5 ) in their L/9 meetings. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State. Play on the over |
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| 02-25-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 225 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
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Philadelphia is 3rd in ppg allowed this season behind a slow pace that ranks them 26th in the NBA. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed and 20th in pace. Today in a elite NBA eastern conference tilt Im expecting a physical battle that helps keep this score on the low side of the Total. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.3 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA in their L/44 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 212.4 ppg scored. NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game are 45-17 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-25-23 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies UNDER 235.5 | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
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My projections place this total closer to 231 giving us a full two possession value to the under on this totals offering. Memphis owns the No.1 ranked defensive efficiency rating in the league. Denver ranks 19th in pace. MEMPHIS is 25-8 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 MEMPHIS/(DENVER) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-24-23 | Fairfield v. Niagara OVER 124.5 | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play on the over |
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| 02-23-23 | San Diego v. Gonzaga UNDER 165.5 | 72-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score of closer to 161 which gives us a two possesion edge on this totals offering. GONZAGA is 8-1 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.3 ppg scored.GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149 ppg scored. Lavin is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 147.8 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (GONZAGA) - explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or more are 30-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-23-23 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 233.5 | 142-138 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
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Indiana beat the Celtics as road dogs earlier this season, and now the Celtics will have redemption in mind and which usually centers on them playing their best form of defensive basketball. BOSTON in 12 games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 220.1 ppg scored..BOSTON in 8 games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season have allowed that opponent in the rematch to score an average of 108.3 ppg while themselves have also average roughly 108.1 points for a combined average of 216.4 ppg. BOSTON is 15-6 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.with the average combined score clicking in at 223.4 ppg. BOSTON is 12-4 UNDER in road games versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season with the combined average score of 226.5 ppg scored.
Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 home games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-16-23 | Weber State v. CS Sacramento OVER 126 | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. WEBER ST is 44-14 OVER at road when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored. Weber has gone over in 6 straight games. Sacramento state has gone over in 4 of their L/5 overall. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (WEBER ST) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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| 02-16-23 | Jacksonville v. Austin Peay OVER 125 | 60-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a total in low 130s giving us a substantial edge on this Totals offering. AUSTIN PEAY is 33-18 OVER L/51 when the total is 120 to 129.5 with a combined average of 135.8 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is 129.5 or less (JACKSONVILLE) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 48-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (AUSTIN PEAY) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 43-23 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the over |
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| 02-16-23 | St Francis PA v. St Francis NY UNDER 136 | 72-64 | Push | 0 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play under |
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| 02-15-23 | Pistons v. Celtics OVER 228.5 | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
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The Celtics played last night, which sets up a trend that shows them going over the set total in their L/6 home games with no rest and overall they are 6-0 over vs sides with a .300 win percentage or less like visiting Motown. With this.being both sides, last game before the all star game, Im betting this will be a wide open affair as both sides will see no reason to pace themselves. The Pistons have gone over in 4 straight before extended rest. BOSTON iin thier L/23 games as a favorite of 10 or more points on the opening line over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 73-36 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Last 5 meetings in Boston have eclipsed the total. Play over |
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| 02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 234.5 | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
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My projections make this total closer to 231 thus giving us an almost 2 full possession advantage to the under. The Suns are in a jet lag situation after a 5 game road trip and may take time to acclimated to home cooking . Note: The Suns are ranked 5th in ppg allowed and 22nd ranked pace and will primed to try to slow down their run and gun opponents. SACRAMENTO is 10-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 7-0 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO in 27 road games this season have seen a combined average of 231.1 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better- 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 15-7 UNDER as a home favorite this season NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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| 02-14-23 | Magic v. Raptors OVER 221 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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Playing on tired legs will have Orlando at a disadvantage from a transitional standpoint and that Im betting will lead to them giving up some extra points beyond what the lines-makers are projecting. Over is 8-3 in Magic last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. Over is 17-8 in Magic last 25 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day TORONTO is 19-7 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.6 ppg scored.
NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in February games are 43-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 49-24 L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto Play on the over |
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| 02-13-23 | Magic v. Bulls UNDER 226.5 | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
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Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 overall The Magic and Bulls are both off losses, in what were low scoring affairs. Both are playing solid d, and with the Bulls looking especially tired Im betting on a slower grinding type game here as well. The Bulls rank 9th in defensive efficiency on the league, behind a 14th ranked pace, and have gone under in 10 of their L/12 overall while, the Magic rank 19th in pace and own the 27th ranked offensive output and have gone under in 4 straight and 6 of their L/7 overall. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER in road games off a home loss this season.with a combined average of 216 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 13-5 UNDER off a road loss this season with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 34-19 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 219.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 35-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 115-66 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago Play on the UNDER |
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| 02-13-23 | Hartford v. South Alabama UNDER 134.5 | 53-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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| 02-13-23 | Rockets v. 76ers OVER 225 | 104-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
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The Rockets' defense was in good form last time out against the Heat in a 97-95 loss. However, that has not been the case in four previous losses -- 117-111 to the Toronto Raptors, 153-121 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 140-120 to the Sacramento Kings and 130-128 to the Kings. Im betting they regress here into their former state and also progress offensively after that last outing, which will produce a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. These teams took part in a 132-123 Houston win back on dec 5th of the season. Im sure the Sixers will ramp up their energy here in revenge mode and will be prepared to bring down the hammer and merciless fashion which will also aid our quest for cashing an over ticket. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Over is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 8-1 in 76ers last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Over is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 home games. PHILADELPHIA is 14-3 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 20-7 OVER (after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, off a win against a division rival are 26-4 OVER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. |
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| 02-12-23 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 228.5 | 118-119 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
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Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and the early start time which play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall. MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-12-23 | Grizzlies v. Celtics UNDER 227.5 | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
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Two quality teams who can light up the board, but also play a top tier brand of D, go head to head in NBA afternoon tilt. The combination of this tilt having expectations of being a grinding style post season type affair, and the early start time which play havoc with both sides energy levels making this an outlook that leans on this tilt staying on the low side of the offered total. Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 Sunday games.Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last 6 road games.Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 overall. MEMPHIS is 13-5 UNDER ) in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 19-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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| 02-12-23 | Michigan State v. Ohio State OVER 136.5 | 62-41 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
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My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 OVER in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.1 ppg scored. OHIO ST is 12-4 OVER versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 142.6 ppg scored. CBB Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent FT shooting team (73% or more ) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 54-18 OVER l/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 149.3 ppg. Play on the OVER |
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