NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in New York Jets vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Jets have been giving up a lot of yardage but so too have the Giants. Also the Giants have shown they'll keep slinging the ball around on the field no matter what the situation is and who is on the field. That said, the Jets are expected to play starters more in this one but all I am seeing from this is points. That's because the Jets defense also struggled in that first game of the season against the Eagles in the first half before they rallied for the win. I just do not care for what I have seen from either defense this preseason including almost the entirety of when the back-ups are in. Also there is still a lot of QB evaluation going on here with back-ups so both teams will continue to throw a lot in this preseason finale. Note that each teams first two games have totaled at least 40 points this preseason. Also, their game last preseason was low-scoring but that was week 1. Note that their week 3 games saw the Jets game total 62 points and the Giants game total 42 points. We'll get into the 40s here based on the way these two teams have been playing in this preseason and what I am expecting to see here based on how the teams are approaching this preseason finale. 10* OVER 38 in New York Jets

NFLX Saturday 10* OVER 37 in Miami @ 7 ET - The Dolphins scored only 13 points in last week's loss but it was a deceiving final point tally as they had over 300 yards of passing offense in that one. As for the Eagles, each of their first two games totaled over 40 points and so too did Miami's first game of this preseason. Philadelphia on a 4-1 O/U run in preseason games under their new head coach and the only one that did not go over did see them allow 35 points. In other words, expect plenty of points here because did score an average of 31 points per game in their last 3 preseason home games prior to the low-scoring loss to the Raiders last week. Again, the Dolphins did have solid yardage in that game through the air and I like what they have been doing in terms of the QB rotation in this preseason and ditto for the Eagles. 10* OVER 37 in Miami

NFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Yes it is preseason. Yes you don't see all the starters. Yes you don't see teams wanting to show their playbook on offense very much either. However, one of the keys to how preseason games play out is a team wanting to win it. In this case I think former Patriots OC, Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels has extra motivation just like his Patriots adversary has here too. That means later in a preseason game where most teams typically are just trying to run the clock and get the game over with, I feel this one plays out much differently. Whoever is trailing will keep pushing to score. Neither wants to lose this game no matter what they have (or would) otherwise say. There is a little extra motivation here and the result will be more points I am sure. Raiders would love to finish preseason 4-0 by knocking off McDaniels former team. Las Vegas gave up more yardage than you would think though in last week's 15-13 win over Miami. Also, the Patriots allowed only 10 points last week but Carolina sat top two QB's. This one plays out differently than the unders these teams just had! 10* OVER 37 in Las Vegas

NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - The odds makers opened this one up near 40 and it immediately plummeted and is now down to a 36 as of game day. Personally I love when the betting markets think they know so much more than the smartest people in the room. Who are those guys? The odds makers! That is not to say you can blindly fade every line move. Of course not, but when the situation is right it opens up a wealth of value. This one blew right past the key numbers of 38 and 37 on NFL totals and I am happy to invest on the over 36 here. Both teams playing a slew of back-ups throughout this one. So you really think you are going to see great defense all night long in a case like this? Of course not. Also, Love has looked strong at QB for the Packers thus far in the pre-season. The Chiefs have Henne getting action here and then a good battle for the #3 spot between Buechele and Crum. How will head coach Andy Reid evaluate this QB situation? It certainly will not be by seeing how good these guys are at handing the ball off! The point is there will quite a bit more offense than many expecting here. Note that Green Bay has already scored at least 20 in each game of this preseason but, prior to last week's solid defensive effort, the Packers allowed an average of 24 points per game last 8 preseason games and NEVER allowed less than 19 in any of those 8 games! Over was 6-2 in those 8 preseason games and that trend resumes here. Chiefs 24-14 win last week was 4th straight home preseason game totaling at least 38 points. Those 4 games averaged 47.5 points scored and I fully expect this one to get into the 40s as well. 10* OVER 36 in Kansas City

NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 39 in Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers @ 7 ET - The Vikings 6-2 to the over last 8 NFLX games after last week's 26-20 loss to the Raiders. Vikings have allowed 25 points per game last 4 preseason games. On the others side of the ball I do like the fact that Minnesota picked up over 100 yards on the ground last week at Las Vegas plus had two touchdown passes and no turnovers in the game. The Vikes offense should continue to fare well here against a 49ers defense that was bailed out by some turnovers generated last week because, overall, San Francisco did allow a lot of yardage. In terms of offensive production though, the Niners are looking good with 3 different quarterbacks throwing for a TD last week! Off that 28-21 win, note that SF has now averaged 23 ppg last 8 NFLX games. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting this game to get well into the 40s. 10* OVER 39 in Minnesota

NFLX Friday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans @ 10 ET - Under new head coach Lovie Smith, the Texans are hungrier for the win here. However, hard to trust them to get it in my opinion but what I like here is that the effort will be there. Houston off a low-scoring win last week and that has led to some extra value this week on the over. The Texas threw 3 interceptions last week and I do not expect a repeat of that here. Also, Houston was fortunate to give up only 13 points in that game. I like the fact that Rams QB Perkins had a good game last week and I expect him to come up big again this week. With LA likely to play solid at home (even though it is back-ups) and with having allowed over 300 yards of offense last week and being somewhat fortunate to win (29-22 final), I expect a lot of points here. Texans will get theirs but Rams will hang around in this game too. I feel the side could really go either way but look for some solid scoring here. The high-scoring trending we saw in Week 1 preseason continued even with an under in last night's Bears win at Seattle as that one totaled 38 points and very nearly ended up being a late bad beat for under players but it hung on. The point is that scoring continues to be up and I expect that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 38 in Los Angeles Rams

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 40 in Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears @ 8 ET - After all the high-scoring games in Week 1 of preseason now your seeing the result in inflated totals this week. That doesn't mean it will be all unders this week for sure but, rather, it just means there is some extra value in certain spots. In my mind, the Thursday night game is one of those! The Bears only allowed 205 yards of offense to the Chiefs last week. Keep in mind their new head coach was a defensive coordinator. They allowed a TD just before half last week or the final could have easily been 19 to 7 instead of 19 to 14 in that game. Also, their 4 scoring drives in the game, all in the 2nd half, averaged just 37.5 yards apiece so it is not like they were moving the ball like crazy on offense in that game. The Seahawks are off a high-scoring loss at Pittsburgh and I look for them to shore some things up on defense after the way that game played out. History is certainly on our side in that regard as Seattle entered last week's game with 6 of last 7 preseason games being unders over the past two preseasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* UNDER 40 in Seattle

NFLX Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 37 in Washington Commanders vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - The QB play here should key an over. Excellent QB rotations for a preseason game and that should help push this one way over. I like the QB situation for both Carolina (now with Mayfield added) and Washington (Wentz expected to play) and plenty of talent behind these guys read to battle it out. The Commanders have allowed 23 points per game in last 4 preseason games and Carolina has allowed at least 19 points in 4 of last 6 preseason games. Look for this one to get into the 40s as we see some strong quarterback play throughout. Really each team is 3-deep with solid talent at the QB position. Like this factor plus the fact we have seen the games trending to high-scoring so far in this pre-season. More of the same here. 10* OVER 37 in Washington

NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 30.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8 ET in HOF Game in Canton, OH - This is a road game for both teams of course because it is a neutral site game. Note that last pre-season saw the Raiders two road games both total at least 33 points. 2020 there was no preseason. 2019, the Raiders had two road games and a neutral site game. All 3 of those games away from home totaled at least 32 points. So this is a 5-0 situation for Las Vegas in terms of NFLX games away from home totaling at least 32 points. As for the Jaguars, both their road preseason games (and their home game for that matter) all totaled at least 36 points with the two roadies both totaling at least 34 points! So the point is that we have a double perfect situation here with 5-0 L5 for the Raiders and a 3-0 L3 for Jacksonville. This one gets to at least 32 (but I expect much more) and yet we are working with a total of only 30.5 points because of the reputation of the HOF game to be a low-scoring grinder. This total has ended up too low in the markets in my opinion. Keep in mind, each team has new head coaches and Pederson is an offensive-minded coach and former NFL QB and McDaniels was the offensive coordinator of the Patriots for more than a decade. No matter who is on the field here, yes a lot of unknowns, there will be more offense than most are expecting given all of the above. Keep in mind, Jags have allowed 24 points per game last 7 NFLX and Raiders allowed 23 points per game L5 NFLX non-home games. 10* OVER 30.5 in Hall of Fame Game

NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #125 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have a battle going on for the #2 QB spot behind Dak Prescott. Now that Prescott has been pronounced fit for week one of the regular season, that means Gilbert and Rush will definitely be fully turned loose in this game to battle it out in this contest. Considering they are up against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 23 points in each game thus far, I like our chances for plenty of Cowboys points here. Both of these teams are winless on the preseason and that is even with Dallas having already played 3 games thus far. I don't think either team will hold back in going for the win here no matter that it is a preseason game. As for the Jaguars QB situation, of course we may not see starter Trevor Lawrence in this one but CJ Beathard has been solid for the Jags in the preseason. In fact, other than the 2 picks thrown by Gardner Minshew (now traded away to Eagles), take a look at the Jags other QB numbers: 50 of 75 for 443 yards and 4 TDs and no INTs. Considering that as well as a very aggressive effort from the Cowboys QBs in this one I am expecting a high-scoring contest here. 10* OVER 36 in Dallas