MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - The Padres should hammer Taillon. The Cubs righty is off to a tough start this season and I like the fact this total was a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 in most spots. I totally understand the move but respect the number the odds makers first had up there on this one. That said, Taillon consistently has been roughed up in his starts and though Michael Wacha has been pitching well for San Diego, I am expecting a solid effort from Chicago. The Cubs last road trip last 9 games and started with a 6-2 win and ended with a 2-1 loss. But in the middle were 7 games that all totaled double digits and average 13 runs per game! Perhaps the road will again get the Cubs sticks going again here. I also like the fact the Padres have scored 7 or more runs in 6 of last 10 games. San Diego averaged 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Lyles has been so consistently bad that you know he is destined to give up a handful of runs here. I know Anderson has pitched well for the Rockies but there are some signs that the wheels are about to come off in one of these starts. Royals do tend to hit a little better at home and Colorado can be counted on to do damage against a struggling Lyles here. That said, and considering a pair of suspect bullpens (as Rockies showed again last night), look for this one to get to double digits in runs scored. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - This total dropped from a 10 to a 9.5 and I like fading the line moves when other factors line up and that is certainly the case here. The Diamondbacks Zach Davies has not been right this season and is trying to now also come back from an oblique injury and the first start back did not go well at all. He is now 8-18 the past 3 seasons combined and with a high ERA in the 5.00 range these past 3 seasons combined. Davies will not be the only starter likely to struggle here. Note that Connor Seabold has struggled for the Rockies but whether it is him or Chase Anderson I like the over in this one. As per usual, I am going with action on the pitchers and Anderson did have an ugly 1.57 WHIP in the minors before he was called up. I know the journeyman veteran has had some surprising success this season in his limited MLB action in 2023 but he really struggled in the start before his most recent one. That was home against the Marlins and he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings and he had 2 walks against just 1 strikeout in that outing. Anderson is due for a regression to the mean and I think that Marlins start is a sign of the reality that is soon on the way for him. Regardless of starting pitchers I like the over here as neither bullpen has been good this season and I expect the hitting to resume like we had seen in Monday's game. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +150 @ New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - 3 key angles here. The Phillies have never been swept in a series in the eastern time zone this season. Sweeps are rare to begin with and I don't see Phillies getting swept against division rival Mets. That is where the next couple of key angles comes in actually. Speaking of divisions and rivals, Scherzer use to pitch with Nationals and now is with Mets and so the Phillies see plenty of him and they actually have hit him well in recent meetings. Thirdly, and the other part of this rivalry aspect, Walker use to pitch for the Mets. Now he faces his former team and you know he will be up for this start. The underdog value is tough to pass up here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA +150

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -115 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Nola was really looking sharp and having great command of his pitches and looking like vintage Nola before his most recent start ended up being a tough one. I fully expect him to bounce right back here and he takes on Carrasco who has been struggling. His most recent start was better at Chicago but he had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts before that. So really you have a unique solid situation because you have Nola who had been pitching well but off a tough start and Carraco who had been struggling but is off a strong start. So extra line value here and Phillies off a tight 2-0 loss at New York yesterday so this is a great play on spot for Philadelphia. The Mets had lost 4 of 6 prior to yesterday's win and is 0-3 this season when off a shutout win. The Phillies are 3-1 this season when off a shutout loss. So this is a combined 86% YTD situation in favor of the road team here. PHILADELPHIA -115

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox lost yesterday's series opener to the Reds 9 to 8 and games at Fenway Park continue to trend toward being very high-scoring. 13 of last 16 games there have totaled at least 10 runs and these 16 games have averaged 13 runs apiece. We should see 11 runs at least here as the Red Sox and Reds bullpens rank in the middle of the pack. In terms of hitting, Boston is hitting .298 in home games this season which is #1 in the majors. Cincinnati is hitting .265 in road games this season which is #1 in the National League. As for the pitchers here, Luke Weaver is off a strong start but had allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts before that! James Paxton has made only 9 starts since the 2019 season because he has multiple injury issues. He is coming off an ugly outing and really has been quite unreliable since his successful campaign in 2019. Paxton is facing a Reds team that has won 4 straight games and 6 of last 8. In the 4 straight wins, the Reds have averaged 8.5 runs and have now scored 8 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games and overall have averaged 7 runs per game last 8 games. OVER 10.5 in Boston

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:45 ET - I am going with action on the starting pitchers as usual but we will start there. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas is winless with a 5.86 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. He has been hit at a .336 clip in home starts this year. Zack Greinke expected to get the ball for the Royals in this one and he is 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Historically he has struggled on the road quite often in many of his MLB seasons. Last year he was 0-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his 14 home starts. Over the past two season he is now 0-10 in his 19 road starts and opponents have hit about .300 against him in those outings. The Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 7 games and will look to build off yesterday's 7-0 win. However, I am sure that the Cardinals will bounce back at home after being shutout and especially facing Greinke and one of the league's worst bullpens. The Cards, before yesterday's home shutout, had seen 9 of their last 12 home games total at least 9 runs. Those dozen games averaged 12.3 runs per game. Look for that type of scoring to resume here. OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 6:40 ET - Alex Faedo coming off one of the best starts of his career and he totaled 10 strikeouts in that one which was the first time in his career he ever totaled more than 7 strikeouts. This is giving us some nice value here as the Tigers hurler is a little over-valued in this spot and I like the Rangers to hit him hard. At the same time, we get line value with Martin Perez on the hill for Texas because he has some good overall numbers. One of the keys here is that Perez has a high 4.87 ERA on the road this season and in all his starts this year he has a .294 BAA. He also got hit at a .294 clip in 2021. Looking at his career numbers you also realize that his great 2022 might have been more of a one-off success story than anything else. When you look at his career numbers season by season, Perez has had only two truly solid seasons. He is just one of those guys that has hung around but rarely been strong for a full season. With the way he is struggling on the road this season and the line value we have here, I will not hesitate to step in. Note that the Tigers bullpen BAA is 12th in the AL and the Rangers bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL. Taking action on pitchers as per usual as both bullpens should give some up here too and I like the value of the 8.5 and I like the fact the Tigers had averaged 5.2 runs scored per game last 10 games before being shutout yesterday. Also, the Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs scored per game last 16 games. Warm weather for this one too! OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:05 ET - The Athletics are starting Paul Blackburn and the Braves are starting Mike Soroka. Neither one of these guys have pitched in quite some time. No matter the starters here I do like the over as the Athletics continue to give up a lot of runs and are allowing 7 per game on the season. The Braves are coming of an 11-4 slugfest win over the Phillies last night. So the set up is a good one as Atlanta will pile up runs but their pitching is a question mark here. Soroka struggled some in his AAA rehab starts and this is his first start at the MLB level since the 2020 season due to multiple injury issues. Blackburn will be making his 2023 season debut as he has dealt with injuries and he did have some shaky rehab starts in the minors and now faces a dangerous Braves lineup.  Atlanta is off that 11-4 home win and also their last 4 road games have all totaled 11 or more runs. The Braves averaged 7 runs scored per game in those 4 away games. Oakland has lost 19 of 21 games and continues to give up piles of runs. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - This is a rare plus plus situation with a quality team. The Phillies are the defending NL champs but we can get them +1.5 runs +115 here - hence the plus plus - and I will not pass up on the value here. On the surface, based on the pitching match-up, it looks like a mismatch. However, Dylan Covey capable of doing a respectable job here and has looked manageable in recent work. At the same time, let's not forget Spencer Strider has not been as strong of late and he also got rocked when he most recently faced the Phillies in the post-season last year. The Phillies have some confidence from B2B wins so far in this series. Additionally, the Braves have now lost 10 of 16 and 3 of those 6 wins were by just a single run! Also, Atlanta scored an average of only 2.8 runs in those 10 losses! This is too much underdog value with a quality lineup. The Phillies bullpen has also been stepping up of late. More of the same here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 +115

MLB Sunday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a slugfest and today is a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and, based on the weather report, the ball should be carrying very well. Gomber has struggled in this ballpark and gets the start for the Rockies here. Megill has been inconsistent and also is known for road struggles and this will be his first ever road start at Coors Field. Note he got hit hard by the Rockies last time he faced them and that was in New York. That said, this match-up will be even tougher for him. Colorado does score quite well at home and the Mets bats came to life yesterday and should pound out a bunch of hits and runs again here. The Rockies bullpen is an area of concern as evidenced by their numbers so far this season and the Colorado starter Gomber likely to get rocked. That has been his norm in home starts and the Mets are feeling it after yesterday's 10-7 win. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - A pair of starting pitchers that have both been out for awhile. A pair of lineups that have been among the better hitting clubs in the league this season. A hitter-friendly ballpark. A mediocre bullpen and a sub-par bullpen. All these variables point toward an over here. Zach Davies has not been the same pitchers since the 2020 season and has gone 8-17 since then and struggled in his only home start this season. Garrett Whitlock is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he was getting hit at a .300 clip at the AAA minor league level as well in his 3 starts there this season. The Diamondbacks lost 7-2 yesterday but scored an average of 5.3 runs in their dozen games prior to that one. Arizona has allowed 5.4 runs per game last 9 games. Boston has been running hot and cold with their offense going in streaks so don't be surprised if yesterday's 7-run outburst gets another streak of big run-scoring going. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - There is a reason, of course, this total opened up at an 8 in some spots but is on the move to an 8.5 across the board today on Friday. The fact is we should see plenty of runs here and traditionally I have had good success with situations just like this one. That situation is the fact these two lineups just faced these pitchers and oftentimes that favors the hitters in the very next meeting. Adding to the value is the fact this game is in Oakland. That helps us because Hunter Brown has certainly not been the same pitcher away from Houston over the past month or so. Brown has been roughed up in 3 of 4 road starts and allowed 23 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning those 3 starts. Don't be surprised if the A's fare much better against him here than they did in Houston last weekend. As for Kaprielian, he had only one 1-2-3 inning in his 5 innings versus the Astros last weekend and he was fortunate to limit the damage. Also, in 2 of his 3 home starts this season he has been roughed up. Kaprielian is likely to struggle with the world champs getting a quick second look at him. Also, the Oakland bullpen has a 6.56 ERA and that is dead last in the majors this season. The A's have blown 10 of 14 save opportunities. The Astros are off B2B shutout losses but this was after scoring an average of 6 runs per game in an 8-game winning streak. Oakland has averaged 4 runs scored in last 6 home games but is allowing 7 runs per game this season! OVER 8.5 in Oakland 

MLB Friday OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Jordan Lyles is 0-8 with a 7.15 ERA this season. The Nationals Patrick Corbin is pitching better of late but still giving up a lot of hits and so he has been fortunate. He is getting hit at a .291 clip this season but escaping jams recently to preserve a decent ERA for the month of May. Keep in mind this is still a guy who entered this season 17-42 the past 3 seasons combined and he is getting hit at about a .300 clip the last 3+ seasons. These two bullpens are also ranked near the bottom of MLB for team ERA so far this season. 7 of last 11 Nats games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Royals have seen 14 of 20 home games total at least 9 runs and have been scoring better at home with an average of 6 runs scored in last 13 games at home. OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - The Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola and his velocity has ticked up and he has been again looking like vintage Nola of late. He gives the Phillies a big edge over the Braves and a struggling Dylan Dodd. Note that the Braves southpaw was struggling in the minors this season too before the rookie got called up to the big club. Nola has allowed only 34 hits in 47 innings over his last 7 starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout performance in his last start. Dodd, on the other hand, is getting hit at a .364 clip. Even if there is a pitching change, which I am sure would not involve both pitchers, I still like this play. It is a fade Dodd, on Nola combo but also the rivalry situation here and the fact the Phillies have underachieved so far this season but are absolutely good enough to challenge the Braves. So we get some line value here. PHILADELPHIA -110

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - Alcantara is having a rough season for the Marlins as he is 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA this season. While he has pitched better of late, he still has not quite been himself and a trip to Coors Field is unlikely to help him. One of the worst starts of his career happened in his most recent start here and, again, he has not been as sharp as usual this season. This is not the time nor the place to turn things around. Also, the Rockies are sending Karl Kauffmann to the mound and he struggled in his MLB debut but this should not be a complete shock as his minor league numbers have been ugly. Basically, he is getting this chance because that is how pitching-thin the Rockies are. On that note, I like this paly regardless of who the starting pitchers are. The Marlins have 11 hits in each of the first two games but have gone a crazy 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position which has definitely led to a ton of wasted opportunities. I look for the Rockies to continue scoring well at home while Miami finally gets going too and actually gets some clutch hits in this one. The weather, other than some showers possibly dancing around the area, is also ideal for a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly venue. OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -150 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies Matt Strahm flies under the radar more than Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler but this guy can pitch! The Philadelphia southpaw has a 2.73 ERA and is holding hitters to a .188 BAA and this is after he had a 3.83 ERA and a .224 batting average against during his solid season with Boston last year. He should enjoy success here at home against Arizona. The Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson to the mound for this one and he has a 5.48 ERA and a .296 BAA in his 9 starts this season. He is coming off a strong start but that was at Oakland and the Athletics are the worst team in the majors this season. Prior to that he was allowing an average of 1 earned run per INNING over his last FIVE starts. So Nelson has consistently been struggling. No matter who pitches in this match-up, the Diamondbacks are on a 3-game winning streak and are 1-5 the last 6 times when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games! The Phillies are off a 6-3 loss to Dbacks to open up this series but they had won 10 of 14 home games heading into this series and I look for them to bounce right back. PHILADELPHIA -150

MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are expected to start Chase Anderson. I know the veteran hurler was surprisingly solid so far in his limited action but I just can not see that continuing. Also, the weather is favorable for an over tonight. Additionally, the Colorado bullpen has a high BAA and a rather high WHIP so they have been fortunate their ERA is not higher and even with all that they do rank in the lower third of team bullpens and I expect them to drop further as the season goes along. As for the Marlins, Edwin Cabrera is expected to start here and he has struggled badly on the road this season. A start at hitter-friendly Coors Field is certainly unlikely to help matters. Note that 4 of last 6 Rockies games have totaled at least 16 runs and that includes 3 games at Coors Field and 3 games at Texas. The Rockies have scored at least 9 runs in 2 of last 3 home games. The Marlins are 7-4 last 11 games and, other than a 1-0 win, scored an average of 4.5 runs in the other 10 games. Now at hitter friendly Coors Field you can safely add a couple runs to that average and look for Miami to get to the 6 or 7 mark tonight and the Rockies will likely equal them run for run as well. OVER 11.5 in Colorado 

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - I am going to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. We get a lower total because Framber Valdez is the starter expected to go for Houston here. The Astros southpaw does have a low ERA this season but he actually has been better on the road than at home! He is 3-0 with a .179 batting average against in his road starts but he is 0-4 with a .279 BAA in home starts! The A's do hit decently against left-handed pitchers and they could surprise here. As for the Oakland pitching, they have struggled this season with yesterday's 3-2 loss being a rare aberration as they almost always give up a lot of runs. I expect Houston to pound the Athletics today as their bullpen ranks as the worst in the league plus the expected starter James Kaprielian is likely to struggle here. He is off a good start versus the Rangers but this was at home and was surprising to say the least. He had been moved to the bullpen plus Kaprielian had allowed at least 5 runs in each of his 3 starts this season before that surprising result versus Texas. Look for the other team from the Lone Star State to quickly return him to reality as the Astros roll big at the plate in this one. The A's are averaging allowing 7 runs per game this season and has scored an average of 4 runs per game in last 9 road games. OVER 8.5 in Houston

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:15 ET - Baseball can be a funny sport. Cardinals scored 16 in winning the first game of this series Thursday and then proceeded to get shutout and manage only 2 hits in yesterday's game! The Dodgers did score 5 runs in that one after scoring 8 in the series opener. I like this one with action on pitchers but I will start there with mentioning that Mikolas has struggled badly in his home starts this season and Syndergaard has been roughed up on the road this season. That sets this one up well as both have not looked like the same pitchers that they used to be. This has been particularly true in terms of Mikolas at home and Syndergaard on the road this season. That said, I like the value here with this total available at a 9. St Louis, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 7.7 runs per game during this stretch! The Dodgers have gone 16-4 since starting the season 13-13. LA has averaged 5.9 runs per game during this stretch. Look for a 6-5 type game in this one given all of the above plus the fact the Los Angeles bullpen has struggled this season and has a higher ERA than usual. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -120 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 11-7 at home this season while the Cubs are 8-13 on the road this season. Ranger Suarez expected to get the start for the Phillies here and his first one of the season (after being on the injured list) did not go so well but that was at hitter friendly Coors Field in Denver. Note his minor league starts in rehab had been strong and he is coming off a solid season. That said, Suarez will be just fine here back at home and making his 2nd start since returning from injury. As for Marcus Stroman, the right-hander has been roughed up a few times in his last five starts and is facing a tough lineup in a tough venue here. The Phillies also have a lot of familiarity with him from his days with the Mets. Now the Cubs righty in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Phillies bounce back from a tough road trip. Chicago is 3-7 against NL East teams so far this season and the Phillies are 8-3 last 11 home games. PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Wednesday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a surprising 3-1 final at Coors Field. Of course this is an aberration. Look for things to return to normal Coors Field standards today. Ashcraft was horrible on the road last season. Gomber coming off some good starts of late but that is keeping this total lower than it should be. Yesterday's was 12.5 and this one is 11.5 and I see value here. Gomber has had plenty of struggles in this park. The weather - other than possible showers - actually looks ideal here with warm temperatures and favorable winds. I feel conditions will be ripe for an over here and like the added value after yesterday's unusual result here. Rockies known for hitting well here and Reds had been scoring quite well before yesterday's low-scoring grinder. OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 11-6 last 17 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday followed by a 5-2 win yesterday. That Monday win saw the Dbacks leave 10 men on base and the teams combined to go just 2 of 11 with runners in scoring position. I know the A's sometime struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers here because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. By the way, the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA has them ranked among the worst bullpens in baseball. The starters expected for this one are both southpaws and both the Athletics and the Diamondbacks are in the top 12 out of 30 teams in the league for batting average versus southpaws. Arizona's Tommy Henry is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his career. Oakland's Kyle Muller is 4-8 with a 6.10 ERA in his career. Opponents are hitting .340 against Muller this season. As for Henry, he has struggled in 4 of the 6 road starts he has made in his career and his strikeout numbers are really down this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Monday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 10-6 last 16 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said Rucinski was expected to start yesterday but did not and the A's still allowed 11 runs. He is expected to go tonight so I mention him again below. As for Arizona's Kelly, he is a solid hurler for sure but he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his only career start at Oakland. Also, he has a low ERA on the road this season but actually has a higher batting average against on the road than at home this season. Throughout his career, Kelly has a higher ERA in road outings and I look for the Athletics to score some runs here. As for A's hurler Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers are hot and can score plenty of runs. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said however, the fact that Heaney is getting the start for the Rangers here should help our cause and the same holds true for Rucinski. So Heaney is winless with a 7.15 ERA in his two starts this month. Also, he did face the A's in Texas last month so the fact they are getting another quick look at Heaney could help here. As for Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Rangers lineup should continue to steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -145 @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are going for 5 straight wins. They recently welcomed Bryce Harper back to the lineup earlier this month. Now they welcome back Ranger Suarez to the mound as he gets the start tonight after completing his rehab assignment in the minors. The point is that both the mood and the level of play is up for the Phillies right now. Things seem to be turning around and they are now back to a .500 record after a slow start this season. As for the Rockies, they have been an oxymoron so far this season - or at least over the last few weeks. I say that because usually - almost without fail - they are better at home than on the road but that has been the reverse now for many weeks. I look for their home field struggles to continue here as the Phillies are the defending NL Champs and are finally starting to play like that again. Suarez is a solid southpaw and Ryan Feltner has been struggling at times for the Rockies. The right-hander gets hit hard and the lefty should shine against the Rockies just like he did when these teams met last season. No matter the pitchers here, we have the better team and the momentum on our side with better lineup and better bullpen too - no matter what the team ERAs show at this early juncture - I am talking about the guys in the pen and what the long-term is with these hurlers. PHILADELPHIA -145

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 9:40 ET - The A's were shutout last night and maybe they were just asleep at the plate after coming back from a trip to the east coast. However, their bats should wake up again tonight. They actually have hit decently against lefties this season while the Rangers have been one of the best teams in the majors against lefties. This is expected to be a battle of southpaws with Waldichuk against Perez. No matter the starting pitchers here (I am going action), I expect the A's season long pitching struggles to continue as they also have the worst bullpen numbers in the majors. As for Waldichuk, he has a 7.25 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .304 against him. Perez is off a very ugly start at Anaheim against the LA Angels and he does have road struggles from time to time. Athletics will be better at the plate tonight for sure but their pitching woes continue. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Thursday OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 9:40 ET - Texas off a 4-3 win at Seattle but it never should have been that low-scoring as the Rangers had 13 hits in that game. Oakland off an 11-3 loss at New York as that loss to the Yankees continued a season of misery for the A's. The big problem for the Athletics so far is they can stop no one and have the worst bullpen in baseball. That is why, no matter who they end up naming as their starting pitcher here, I like the over in this one. Also, Texas is expected to start Nathan Eovaldi but that is not critical either. Oakland has been hitting a little better of late and will get some runs here but also should give up piles of runs again. The Athletics allowing 7.6 runs per game so, even though Texas allowing only 4 runs per game this season, this is a great value with the low total here. 14 of last 20 A's games have totaled at least 9 runs. Rangers last 9 games have averaged about a dozen runs apiece. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -105 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies are off B2B wins and seem to be back on track and are known for being strong at home. Also, Zach Wheeler is known for being strong at home and has had great success at Citizens Bank Park since coming to Philly. The Phillies have won 7 of 10 home games and Wheeler is off a rare tougher start at home. But, as for Kevin Gausman, his last start was not just rough, he was absolutely destroyed. This was the 2nd time in his last 3 road starts that he has been hit very hard. Note too that now he is facing a Phillies team that is starting to get healthier and has Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Harper, by the way, has excellent career numbers versus Gausman. The Blue Jays, overall, are not the same team when they are away from Toronto and this is a tough match-up for them here. The Jays had lost 11 of last 19 on the road before they ran into a struggling Pirates team and took advantage. Toronto has had a road-heavy schedule so far this season and finally has a long homestand - 10 games - on deck. That may be when they get back on track and I could see them sleepwalking through this afternoon game that wraps up this road trip as they already have their minds on getting back home. Phillies get a dominant home win here as their long-term run at home dating back to late last season and including the playoffs has been great. PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - There is a possibility Aaron Judge will be back for the Yankees for this one. Either way I like the over in this match-up. I also like it regarding of starting pitchers because the A's have one of the worst bullpens in the majors based on ERA. Once again, Oakland gave up a bunch of runs yesterday and, with this total dropping from a 9.5 go as low as an 8.5, I feel we have excellent line value here. The Athletics are allowing 7.44 runs per game on the season. They are expected to start Drew Rucinski here and he has a 6.97 ERA and has been getting hit hard again this season and was in spring training as well. The Yankees are expected to start Clarke Schmidt and he is winless in his 7 starts this season and has a 5.83 ERA and, like Rucinski, he is getting at better than a .300 clip by opposing hitters! The Yankees have now scored 7 runs in B2B games and generally do hit better at home. Oakland has been a better hitting team on the road this season and actually ranks 4th in the AL for slugging percentage away from home. OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees 

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - The Royals and White Sox have two of the worst bullpens in MLB so far this season. Also, both clubs have been scoring more runs of late. Also, we get line value here because both Greinke and Cease are big-name pitchers. One of the keys here though is that Greinke, his last start notwithstanding, has struggled quite often this season. Also, Cease is currently struggling when you look at the numbers from his recent starts. Additionally, these are divisional foes and these lineups have quite a few guys with experience against these hurlers. I am going with action on pitchers because of the bullpens and the current trending of these lineups. Note that the Royals have averaged scoring 7 runs in their last 6 games. Before yesterday's 5-1 win over the A's, 5 of last 6 Kansas City games totaled at least 9 runs. The White Sox have won 5 of 7 games and have averaged 7 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. 7 of Chicago's last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one will too the way I see it. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - The Diamondbacks and Nationals combined for 15 runs last night. 14 of last 17 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and I like the fact this total opened up at a 9.5 but dropped to a 9 now in most spots. Note that this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the NL so far this season based on ERA. Though Washington has not scored all that well this season, they will take advantage of facing Ryne Nelson here. The right-hander has struggled in his last 3 starts with 15 earned runs allowed over 14 innings. Yes, one of the starts was at Coors Field but the young hurler's confidence has taken a little hit for sure and you know that the Nationals bring a little extra confidence to the plate today after scoring 7 last night. The Nats have a pitching concern of their own though here as well. Trevor Williams got destroyed when he pitched in this ballpark in his lone start here last season. Also, Williams enters this start off a strong home start but he got hammered in his most recent road start. Look for plenty of runs here as both bullpens help the cause as well. OVER 9 in Arizona

MLB Saturday OVER 10 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 7:10 ET - As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up (ended up a 12-8 winner), Oakland entered this series off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the Athletics in this series at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers again but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Ken Waldichuk is winless in his 6 starts this season and has a 7.26 ERA. The Royals Brady Singer has allowed 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts! He has an 8.49 ERA this season and Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The Athletics have averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game last 11 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC entered this series off a 13-10 loss and then got rocked 12-8 yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games. Problem for KC is just like the Athletics - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. This is a big total on this game but absolutely the big number is justified! OVER 10 in Kansas City

MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:10 ET - Oakland off a crazy 5 to 3 loss versus Seattle. It was crazy for totals players in the sense that the total was an 8.5 and it was already 5-3 in the top of the 4th and yet not another run was scored and it ended up that way...a 5-3 final. Now the A's are at KC and it will be favorable weather conditions for an over and also this match-up features two of the worst bullpens in the league. So I am going over here with action on the pitchers but the expected starters also should help our cause for sure. The Athletics Kyle Muller has been rocked in both his road starts this season. The Royals Brad Keller has strong numbers this season in a lot of categories but he has had trouble with his command and has 24 walks in 30 innings. Oakland should make him pay as they have been hitting better on the road than at home. The A's have averaged scoring 5.7 runs per game last 10 road games! The Athletics have given up an average of nearly 8 runs per game this season though! KC enters this one off a 13-10 loss yesterday! Royals have now scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games. Problem for KC is just like the A's - too many runs allowed - as Royals have allowed about 6 runs per game on the season. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game totaled 20 runs. No matter who starts today I am looking for more big hitting in this one. The Braves have averaged 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 games that were not rain-shortened - the other game was a 4-0 win in just 5 innings. The Marlins 7 of last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Miami has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 games and you know the Braves should get to 4 as well here when you consider the way they have been playing. That said, we should see at least a 5-4 final here. The Marlins have allowed 5.8 runs last 10 games. As for the expected starters here, the Braves Dylan Dodd has very little experience above the AA level of the minors and he got rocked in his most recent MLB outing. Miami's Jesus Luzardo is not as dominant this season and also has regressed over his last 4 starts after he did have a couple strong ones to start the season. So we have nice value here with this over at a manageable total and considering all of the above. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami

MLB Wednesday OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:40 ET - Good weather for an over in this one. Mild temperatures as high temperatures expected near 80 degrees in Denver today. Kyle Freeland got off to a solid start this season but has struggled in his last 3 starts and also has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts. Eric Lauer gets the starts for the Brewers here and he has struggled at home and actually been solid on the road this season but truly doubt that he will find Coors Field to his liking. I like this play with action on the pitchers as I like the fact the teams combined to go just 1 of 12 with runners in scoring position yesterday. That game finished 3-2 and is helping to give us some line value here as it is keeping the line a little low. The reality is that each team has a good shot of getting to 6 runs here and, with a total of 12 posted on this, we would certainly be in good shape if we end with a 7-6 type affair. Prior to yesterday's low-scoring game, 9 of the last 12 games played here had totaled at least 13 runs. More of the same expected here. OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 ET - The Phillies and Dodgers bullpens are about equal in team ERA this season but it has been a big surprise how poorly the LA bullpen has been so far this season. The Phillies bullpen was actually down huge early this season but had been coming on very strong of late before yesterday's debacle. That debacle is one of the keys here because Philly actually had the worst loss of anyone yesterday. I like grabbing good teams off embarrassing losses. Lets not forget these are the defending NL champs. Even without Hoskins the Phillies have still been coming on strong. Also, now they get Bryce Harper tonight. He won't be in the field (though likely at first base in the near future) but he will be the DH tonight. This makes the Phillies lineup extra dangerous tonight and they'll be in bounceback mode after last night's 13 to 4 loss. Action on pitchers here but I will mention the expected starters are Matt Strahm and Julio Urias. Strahm has been superb this season with a 2.31 ERA and holding hitters to a .148 batting average. He has struck out 32 in 23 innings. Conversely, Urias has allowed at least 5 earned runs in B2B starts so he enters this one in poor current form. PHILADELPHIA +140

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:10 ET - The wind will be blowing out for this one. Two big name pitchers on the mound helping to keep this total reasonable. I really like the over a lot in this one as Jose Berrios generally has struggled much more on the road through the years. Also, Corey Kluber has struggled in 2 of his 3 home starts this season. Kluber is off a good road start but this followed allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his first 4 starts this season. Berrios has been hot lately but I can not ignore that he got rocked in each of his first two road starts this season as this has been a pattern for him for a number of years too. These two bullpens are respectable but I am taking action on pitchers. I do not care who the starters are as this is a hitters ballpark with good weather and two solid lineups for this one. Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in MLB. Toronto has the #3 batting average in the AL in road games so far this season. Red Sox have averaged 7 runs scored in last 4 home games and 6.3 runs per game in last 10 games overall - home or away. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.3 runs per game their last 7 games and gone 6-1 during this stretch. Red Sox have won 10 of 16 so they are playing with confidence here as well. Great match-up that sets up well for runs. OVER 10 in Boston

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - We lost with this play but will come right back with it today. The A's still have the worst bullpen in baseball. Also, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game on the season which is unreal. Yesterday the Reds eventually found a way to win but they had a lot of hard hit balls right at guys. That said, the 3-2 final was not indicative of how well the ball was hit and also there were a lot of wasted opportunities. Both teams struggled with guys in scoring position. This one today should make up for it and while all of the above is the most important stuff and I am going action on pitchers as per usual, I will touch on the expected starters here now. Ken Waldichuk had one good start against the Cubs but has allowed 22 earned runs in 20 innings in his other 4 starts. Not good! Speaking of not good, the Reds Nick Lodolo has really hit a wall his past two starts. He had a good start to this season but now has been rocked in B2B outings for 14 earned runs in 9 innings of work. The Reds have a solid batting average versus lefties and the A's have a solid slugging percentage versus lefties. This battle of southpaws sets up to see plenty of scoring! 10* OVER 8 in Oakland

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The old adage about good pitching beats good hitting tends to be very true. However, what is talked about much less is also very true. That is the fact that bad pitching tends to lead to good hitting no matter the opponent! The fact is the Reds should keep pounding an Oakland team whose starting pitching and relief pitching have both struggled. Also, I look for a surprisingly resurgent A's lineup to keep hitting the ball well too. Yesterday's final was an 11-7 Cincy win. I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Hunter Greene has been solid overall but he is in just his 2nd season and, so far, he has not been as sharp in day starts and this one goes at 1 PM local time in Oakland. He had a 2-7 road record last season and a 5.57 ERA in day games last season. He has had some command issues this season in day game action. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but still ranks around the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the A's bullpen, it has been a disaster with a 7.03 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 5 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Cincinnati Reds @ 9:40 ET - I like this play with action on the pitchers but I will start with them here. Kyle Muller has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 innings over his last 3 starts. Luis Cessa had his best start of the season at Pittsburgh last week but that still was not a great start. He has struggled overall this season and has a 10.80 ERA on the season. Muller has an 8.68 ERA on the season. Cincinnati's bullpen has been surprisingly decent this season but the A's bullpen has been a disaster with a 6.75 ERA. Overall, Oakland is allowing 8 runs per game which is absolutely insane when you think about it! They are heating up at the plate right now though too and have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. The Reds are allowing 5 runs per game this season. But they have scored 6.3 runs per game last 3 games and should have no trouble with this struggling A's pitching staff. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 1:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Phillies are are 7-3 last 10 games after another come-from behind win yesterday as they are now a perfect 4-0 L4 times when off a loss. The Mariners have now lost 4 of last 5 road games and Seattle has lost 5 of 7 overall after the loss yesterday. I know George Kirby is a solid pitcher but this is a tough Phillies lineup and also the Phillies Matt Strahm has been piling up strikeouts. Look for Strahm to keep the Mariners off-balance and note that Seattle is 3-6 in day games while Phillies are 8-6 in day games this season. This game starts at 10 AM on the body clocks of the Mariners as it is a 1 ET game. Phillies get the job done again as their bullpen is finally starting to perform as originally expected - remember the season is early - and I look for the hosts to make it 5 out of last 6 on their home field! PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros @ 6:40 ET - Calvin Faucher is really just an opener here but has struggled recently and could help the Astros bats get off to a hot start here. Keep in mind they scored 5 runs on 11 hits yesterday so they should be good to go here. I am not concerned with the pitchers and will take action here because this is essentially a bullpen game for the Rays. As for Astros, whoever is on the mound - starters and relievers - will be facing an angry Rays lineup that got shutout yesterday. That said, I expect the runs to blow in this one. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay entered yesterday's game 20-3 on the year and the 3 times they were held to 2 or less runs in a game this season they responded each time in the next game and actually averaged 8 runs per game in these 3 games. Looking for a big response here from TB. The scheduled starter for Astros is Hunter Brown and he gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 innings in most recent start. Keep in mind the Rays are averaging 6.5 runs per game in their games this season. The Astros are averaging a solid 5 runs per game this season and are the defending champs and getting use to facing Rays pitching. The fact is that if we get 4 runs from each team we can not lose this play and I like our chances of doing just that tonight. 10* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +105 vs Seattle Mariners @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies expected to start Bailey Falter here and the Mariners expected to start Logan Gilbert in this one. However, regardless of starting pitchers I like the Phillies at home as they have won 3 straight games and are building up momentum after a slow start to the season. Spirts are up in Philly as Bryce Harper could return at DH in early May too so things are looking much better since an early season slump and the loss of Rhys Hoskins to season-ending injury right before the season started. In looking at the starting pitchers here, Falter off a strong start and also was strong in his only home start this season. As for Gilbert, he was strong in only 1 of his last 3 starts and in the other 2 he allowed 7 earned runs in 10 innings. The Mariners are below .500 this season and that is even including having played 16 of their 22 games at home this season! They are only 1-3 last 4 road games and this is the furthest east they will have traveled so far this season. The Phillies have won 3 straight and 6 of 8 and will stay hot here! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I am going to jump right in on the added value here. Yes, Cobb has a low ERA this season but he has been hit at a .313 clip so he has been fortunate for sure. Yes, the Cardinals have a solid bullpen but the Giants bullpen has struggled and also St Louis could see their pen called upon early as Montgomery has been struggling getting hit hard in last two starts. That said, I am looking for a rather easy over as this one flies over the low total. Wind blowing out at a good clip early in this one too. We should see solid scoring after yesterday's game involving the Giants got to 5-4 by the middle innings but then the total died at that point and so it was a tough push for over players. This one should keep on going with the Cards now in town instead of the Mets. The Cardinals 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged 11 runs per game. The Giants 3 of last 4 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those have averaged 10 runs apiece. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8 in San Francisco

Sunday MLB 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 7 ET - Wind blowing out again for this one and even though it is the Sunday "night" game on ESPN it starts at 4 PM local time in San Francisco. That means windy weather and cool, but not cold, conditions for this one. That said, note that Megill was 1-4 on the road in his rookie season of 2021, then had a 5.84 ERA on the road last year in 2022. This season he already has been hit harder in his two road starts compared to his home starts. Also, he is facing a hot Giants lineup. But the Mets have been really pounding the ball too as I noted in yesterday's write-up on this same play. Going over again here as the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and they could be called upon earlier here because Stripling is getting the call in this one as a starter. He has worked out of the pen this season too and is coming off a horrible spring training and a lot of those struggles have carried into his regular season form as well. More of the same here and, no matter who the starting pitchers are (take action), I like the over in this one. 10* OVER 9 in San Francisco

MLB Saturday OVER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - I know these pitches are recording a lot of strikeouts but they also have been giving up plenty of hard contact too. That is why Peterson has a high ERA and Webb actually has allowed quite a few long balls. No matter the starting pitchers here I also like the fact this is a day game in San Francisco and the wind will be blowing out. It will still be cool and this is not a hitters park but an 8.5 in this situation and with these conditions and expected starting pitchers is quite solid. The Giants should bounce back after being shutout yesterday. The Mets actually scored 7 in the shutout win yesterday and remain red hot. They have won 11 of 14 games and actually averaged 7 runs per game in the 11 wins! The Giants had scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game last 8 games before being shutout yesterday. So SF bounces back but Mets stay hot! I expect each club to get to the 4-run mark so we have excellent value with this total at 8.5 runs. OVER 8.5 in San Francisco

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - I know Davis had a surprisingly good first start for the Rockies but I expect a reality check for him here! The fact is he struggled in spring training with too many walks so he started this season in AAA and he also had trouble with too many walks. However, he got called up to the bigs due to injury issues. Now Davis faces a fired up Phillies lineup on the road after they surprisingly got shutout by his teammates yesterday. The Rockies are known for struggling on the road and I feel sure lightning will not strike twice here. In other words, after getting shutout by a 5-0 final yesterday, look for the Phillies to respond strong here. They also will have Aaron Nola on the mound. He is known for dominating at home and his stuff should be sharp here. He has a solid k/bb ratio this season and Nola has settled in decently since his first start of the season was an ugly one. I expect his breaking stuff to give the road-adverse Rockies a lot of trouble here and the Phillies pull away as this game goes on. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135

MLB Thursday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres @ 9:40 ET - Why is this total so big? Exactly! Don't let the big number fool you as this total is even up to a 10 in some spots! The fact is that the over is the paly here. Ryne Nelson is off a strong start versus Miami but it was the first time he faced them. This young starter has faced only 3 teams in his career. The other two were the Dodgers and Padres. The first time he faced each of them he pitched well also. But then he faced the Dodgers a 2nd time and struggled. Then he faced the Padres and 2nd and 3rd time and struggled in each outing. Now he faces them a 4th time! You know what to expect here! San Diego is likely to be all over him. Now the Diamondbacks, however, get to tee off against Michael Wacha. The veteran hurler has struggled in 2 of his 3 starts this season and now faces a Diamondbacks team that has scored at least 5 runs in 4 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. Also, those games were on the road! Note that, at home, the Diamondbacks have scored an average of 7 runs last 6 games. The Padres bullpen has been only mediocre while the Arizona bullpen has struggled. San Diego has not been hitting well but has a history of success against the Diamondbacks including at this venue and including against this pitcher. Slugfest coming to Chase Field tonight. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Wednesday OVER 9 in New York Yankees - The Angels were up 5-2 in the top of the 5th in yesterday's game. Inexplicably, the game died at that point. Yes, the Yankees pen has been good this season but the Twins pen had not been overly impressive. Then yesterday, they suddenly got the job one. Look for the Yankees bats to bounce back here but I also don't see the Angels slowing down. In terms of the expected starting pitching match-up here, Griffin Canning had a good first start for the Angels but he gave up hard contact in that game too. In other words, he had some good fortune in that outing. Remember he has been away from MLB for quite some time after suffering a stress fracture in his lower back. It will still take him awhile to get back to the form he use to have. As for Jhony Brito, he got rocked in his most recent start and could not even make it out of the first inning. Keep in mind, he is a rookie and his strikeout numbers were way down in the 2nd start compared to the first start. Then in his 3rd - and most recent - start, he did not make it out of the 1st inning. OVER 9 in New York Yankees

MLB Tuesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Mild weather, winds blowing out toward right-center and with a pair of struggling right-handed pitchers slated to start this one. It is a great spot all the way around for another slugfest. Yesterday's final looked like a football score as Pittsburgh defeated Colorado two touchdowns to a field goal: 14 to 3. I would not be surprised to see each team get to a TD in this one! Of course a 7-7 game would mean at least an 8-7 final and honestly I am expecting the mid-teens on this one again just like yesterday's game. The Pirates start Velasquez and the journeyman right-hander will again find Coors Field to be a disaster for him. The Pittsburgh righty is 35-49 with a 4.94 ERA in his career and has been trending the wrong direction in recent seasons. Every once in awhile he'll have a good start come out of nowhere like he did at St Louis last week but those tend to be one-offs and I am expecting his stuff to lack movement here in the thin air of Denver. That will prove to be a disaster. Speaking of disasters, the Rockies Jose Urena is winless with a 9.90 ERA so far this season. Last year at Coors Field he was 2-5 with a 6.30 ERA and this year he has allowed 5 homers in 10 innings in his 3 starts overall. Again, the wind is blowing out tonight. The Rockies and Pirates bullpens have not impressed this season either. Slugfest at Coors Field. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - I know Freeland has great numbers early this season for the Rockies but the weather is going to be great in Denver for this one plus the Pirates have actually been a surprise early this season. The Pittsburgh bats are sure to enjoy hitting in nice conditions at Coors Field in this one as well. The Pirates are off an extra-innings loss yesterday but had won 8 of 12 games heading into that one! Pittsburgh had scored an average of 6 runs in those 8 victories. Now they should hit Freeland well but I expect their starter, Hill, to get absolutely crushed here. Hill has just 1 strikeout TOTAL in his last 2 starts and if you are pitching to contact at Coors Field it generally does not work out well for you! I know this is a big total here but the Rockies last 6 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and averaged 13 runs. Colorado is off a tough road trip, as usual, so they will be happy to be back home. Rockies scoring an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 at Coors Field. Neither one of these bullpens has been overly impressive so far this season either. OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:10 ET - This total opened at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 in some spots as of early Sunday morning. I know the weather is not ideal in Kansas City today as it will be rather chilly for this game but I really like the over a lot here. Traditionally I like to look for overs, one of my favorite situations is when a strong team is on the road but has a struggling pitcher on the mound and the home team has a big name pitcher going. This tends to lead to strong line value. That is because the line on the total is generally kept down and yet the number should be bigger because of the hot road team hitting well but the weaker home team also getting some solid scoring because they are hosting plus facing a struggling pitcher. So, in terms of what I just outlined there, this one is all systems go. The Braves have Kyle Wright on the mound and he struggled in spring training and that carried right into his first start this season as well. As for the Royals Greinke, he has a decent ERA but has been giving up plenty of hits plus seems to be giving up a little more with each start. Also, now he faces a red hot Braves lineup. Atlanta has seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 9 runs and those 8 have averaged 11 runs apiece and the Braves lineup has been very hot here at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball and KC has seen their last 5 games all total more than 10 runs and these games have actually averaged 12.4 runs apiece. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in Kansas City

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - Great market value here. This line opened up at a -135 on the Phillies and now they are actually the dog in this game. I understand the line move based on Strahm versus Ashcraft but couple keys with that and I will get more into the pitching in a moment though I am making this MLB bet with action on the starting pitchers as per usual. The fact is I love fading big market moves like this as I have a ton of respect for the odds makers. Also, when you look at these teams, they have similar records so far this season and the Phillies are without Hoskins for the entire season and Harper is still out right now too. However, when the dust settles on this season I would not be surprised to see the Reds again lose 100 games and the Phillies to again be in the post-season. Yes, there is still that much of a gap between these teams. That said, this is a line value spot. The Phillies have the much better lineup. Also, Ashcraft is off to a solid start for the Reds but his lone day start was against a Pirates team that does not have a lineup like this Phillies team does. That said, note that Ashcraft was 0-3 in his 7 day starts last season and had an ERA north of 7.00 in those. As for Strahm, he has yet to allow an earned run this season and was solid in day game action last season. Yes the Phillies have been hit and miss so far this season but this looks like a great value spot for them. Look for them to hit again today and the Reds to lose for the 8th time in last 10 games! PHILADELPHIA +100

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins are hitting better than usual early this season. The Diamondbacks also are scoring just fine. The problem for each here is a pair of struggling starters. Bumgarner is off to a rough start this season for the Dbacks and walking too many guys and he is known for struggling more on the road so things are unlikely to improve here. As for Rogers, he is off to a sluggish start this season too and has allowed 3 earned runs in each of his two starts though he was unable to complete 5 innings in either one. Arizona is 6-2 last 8 games and has averaged scoring 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Miami is 4-4 last 8 games and has scored a respectable average of 4.4 runs per game in last 7 games. The Marlins have allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their 7 losses this season. OVER 9 in Miami

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:07 ET - Two struggling starting pitchers and a manageable number here to work with and a Blue Jays team that can mash the ball at home and a Tigers lineup that should do enough to insure this one gets over the total given this pitching situation - not just the starters but also the bullpen situation. So the play here is action on pitchers as is the norm for me. The Tigers have averaged about 4 runs per game last 8 games but of course they are a big dog here for a reason. The Blue Jays have won 7 of 8 games and averaged scoring about 6 runs per game. Bassitt got hit hard in first start for Toronto then walked 5 guys in 6 innings in his 2nd start. The past two seasons Bassitt has a higher ERA in night games than day games. Detroit's Turnbull has seen his strikeout numbers very low this season and he has allowed 12 earned runs and struggled in each of his first two starts. He is not the same pitcher he was before the Tommy John surgery. Maybe he will get it back but he is not there yet for sure. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:40 ET - Brewers had to put Woodruff on the 15-day injured list so Junk is getting this start for Milwaukee. He was not overly impressive in the spring and was in the minors for a reason. Also, he has struggled thus far at the MLB level but was called up to make this start and it is on the road so will not be an easy outing for him. As for the Diamondbacks, they are starting Jameson and he has been a reliever so far this season. So really this is a match-up of two unproven guys and is likely to involve a lot of bullpen work. So the starters do not matter much here and I am looking for an over as the lineups will be the story in this one. I know the Diamondbacks were shutdown yesterday but this followed a 4-game winning streak in which they averaged 8 runs per game. Also the win just prior to that 4-game run also saw them score 8 runs. As for the Brewers, they scored 7 runs yesterday and have won 8 of 10 games and averaged scoring 7 runs in those 8 victories. This one is up to a 9.5 but definitely looking for double digits in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -139 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - This line has dropped from the 160 range to the 140 range. I fully understand the line move but the fact is we now have line value with the defending champs at home. Luzardo has pitched great for Miami but Alcantara also had been pitching great and we saw what happened yesterday as the Phillies exploded with a huge performance at the plate. This Phillies team is a different team when at home. Nola is also a different pitcher when at home. This is his first home start this season and also this is Luzardo's first road start this season. The odds makers of aware of all the key dynamics here and that is why this line opened as high as it did. The drop on the line is because the markets have not grasped the fact just yet that the Marlins have a weak lineup again this season and some suspect arms in the bullpen too. The Phillies, even without Hoskins and Harper right now, are the much better overall team in all facets of the game. I have a ton of respect for Luzardo but he could struggle here in his first road start and facing a lineup that has some guys with familiarity against him. Also, I do expect Nola to dominate at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -139

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:40 ET - This is another line value spot due to the pitcher on the mound. Yes, Luis Castillo is a strong pitcher and the Seattle right-hander is off to a great start this season. However, both those outings were at home. In recent seasons, Castillo has not been as strong on the road as he has been at home. Also, mild evening expected in Chicago with light southerly winds. That also helps the hitters here. Additionally, the Cubs are off an 8-2 home loss and will be ready to respond at the plate here. The problem for Chicago is that they will have Drew Smyly on the mound. He had a rough spring and then that carried right into his first start this season as well. That does not bode well for him here as he faces a Mariners team that is off a 7-6 loss in extra innings yesterday. By the way, that 12-inning game at Cleveland also means that Seattle used up some extra bullpen arms. So the fact is that we have great situational edges for runs here yet we are dealing with a low total of 8 because Castillo is the scheduled starter for the Mariners here. 5 of last 6 Cubs have totaled double digits in runs and those 5 averaged 13.4 runs apiece. The last 7 Mariners games have averaged 9.6 runs per game and only one failed to get to the 8-run mark. I like the odds we see another double-digits runs game at Wrigley Field in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers @ 2:20 ET - Jon Gray is a solid pitcher for sure but this is an afternoon road game at Wrigley Field and the wind, though light, will be blowing out and the Cubs are swinging hot bats. The 10-3 Chicago win yesterday was the 4th time last 5 games that a Cubs game has totaled at least 13 runs! Those 4 games averaged 14 runs and we just need 9 runs here to be a winner. Note that Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs and he struggled in his first start this season which was also here at Wrigley Field. This Rangers team can hit and since Taillon use to pitch in the American League, the Rangers have extra familiarity with him and they have hit him well. Taillon was 5-0 in day starts last season but got hit at a .276 clip and that was 43 points higher than his average in night games. This is a tough match-up for him and the Cubs bullpen has not been good either. So I look for the Rangers bats to get back on track here but also the Cubbies lineup stays hot at this home and this one flies over the total. 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:05 ET - This line is low because of the pitching match-up. But the fact is Lodolo is still a young hurler just like Falter is and the latter is at home for the Phillies here. So lets talk about the overall lineups and the bullpens. The Phillies are the better team. They are the defending NL Champions that just were facing the Astros in the World Series about 5 months ago. I do realize their lineup is not as strong now as it was then because they lost Hoskins for the year and Harper is still out. However, have you looked at the Reds lineup? The Phillies still have the much stronger lineup. Philadelphia should have had a lot more runs yesterday. Note the Phillies won 5-2 and this was despite going only 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position. Look for Philadelphia to cash in more of their opportunities today and I look for them to pull away as this game goes on. Some of Cincinnati's best hitters don't do so well with off-speed stuff and especially from a crafty lefty. Falter will keep them off-balance. The Phillies have enough solid hitting to do some damage against Lodolo as well as a questionable bullpen. Philadelphia's bullpen is the stronger pen and looked strong yesterday. They are at home where, including post-season, I believe they have now won 21 of last 28 games! Reds known for struggling at the plate when on the road. Last season was ugly and this season likely will be the same for Cincinnati. This is just their 2nd road game of the season. I project another road loss for them. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees @ 3:05 ET - The Yankees should hit Kremer hard here. He struggled in his day games last season and that was his bounce back season as, overall, 2021 was rough. Then, to open this season, Kremer got hammered by the Red Sox. As for New York's Schmidt, like Kremer, he got rocked in his first start this season. Also, last season was his first season with significant MLB action but most of that was out of the bullpen. Overall, he was better at home and in night games. This is a day game and he is on the road so you can see why Schmidt likely to struggle too. The Yankees have not scored as well last two games but averaged scoring 6 runs per game in their first 4 games this season. The Orioles off a low-scoring loss but averaged 6.4 runs scored in first 5 games this season. I feel we have some extra line value here with this total being held lower than it should be because both teams off lower-scoring results. The way these teams opened the season, and considering this match-up, this one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 4:10 ET - The Rockies are expected to send Kyle Freeland to the mound for their home opener. It will be chilly in Colorado for this game but it is an afternoon game and temperatures will be warming into the 50s so it is not bad. In the thin air of Denver the ball carries so well and the weather is good enough today to see solid run-scoring here. Freeland had a 6.00 ERA in home starts last season. Historically he struggles more in home starts as Coors Field is hitter friendly and he also struggles more in day games. His ERA in day games in recent seasons: 5.51 ERA, 5.91 ERA, 7.94 ERA, 5.80 ERA. The Nationals are expected to send Josiah Gray to the mound for this one. He got rocked in his first start this season plus he has a 5.26 ERA in his career. Gray allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start at Coors Field and this one could be worse. Rockies should get their sticks going at home here as they are a different team when they are at home. At the same time though, Colorado known for giving up big runs here. In their road games this season, Rockies already allowing 5 runs per game and Nationals are allowing 6 runs per game and now take to the road for the first time this season. I expect each team to get to 5 runs here and that would equate to at least a 6-5 final as, of course, the game can not end 5-5. Solid value here. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - The Red Sox and Pirates stayed under the total yesterday as the game was 3-1 in the top of the 3rd but then basically died after that in what was a 4-1 final. We get some line value today because this total opened up at a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 which is partially due to yesterday's light-hitting results as well as the fact the wind is expected to be blowing in today. That said, I am happy to take advantage of the added value here. Note that Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller is 12-29 with a 5.04 ERA in his career and he is off a season-opening start in which he walked 4 and allowed 6 hits and all of this was in less than 5 innings of work. As for Boston's Corey Kluber, he has regressed season after season since those big seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 with Cleveland. Also, Kluber had a similar start to Keller in terms of struggling in his season-opening outing. Kluber allowed 6 hits and walked 4 and this was in just 3 and 1/3 innings of work. Remember last season opponents hit .274 against him and now he is pitching his home games that is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Look for him to struggle again here just like he did against the Orioles in the opener. 10* OVER 8.5 in Boston

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - Pirates games have averaged 9 runs so far this season. Red Sox games have been very high-scoring so far this season. Yesterday's 7-6 loss just another typical Boston game and I am looking for the Pirates and Red Sox to do it again today on Tuesday as they meet in the 2nd game of this series. Contreras was solid at home last season and in day games. However, this match-up is the exact opposite as he is on the road in a night game and this situation saw him struggle more. As for Boston's Pivetta, he was hit much harder at home and Fenway Park is known as a hitters park for good reason. 19, 17, 14, 13 are the totals runs for the Red Sox games thus far and I look for another wild one tonight as both starters get lit up and who is on the mound to start is not critical as both bullpens have proven susceptible to start this season as well. 10* OVER 9 in Boston

MLB Monday OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 and I also like the fact the Giants just faced some tough pitching in the Bronx against the Yankees so many are doubting their lineup right now. Look for them to surprise against Kopech and the White Sox here. The issue for San Francisco, however, will be the fact that Desclafani is likely to get roughed up here. He has struggled in day games in recent seasons and overall is coming off an injury-plagued season too. As for Kopech, he is coming off a rough spring as he was winless in his 5 starts and had a 7.11 ERA. Desclafani had a 5.59 ERA in the spring. Don't be surprised if both pitchers get a little roughed here and that plus the line value on this drop of the total makes this a solid play the way I see it. Solid chance each team gets to 4 runs here and that would equate to nothing less than a 5-4 final. OVER 8 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:08 ET - The first two games of this series have totaled 37 runs! The Rangers have been on fire at the plate. The projected match-up here is a pair of southpaws with Bailey Falter matched up with Martin Perez. Though the lefty dynamic could change things a little bit after the first games of this series featured all right-handers, I feel that the hot hitting will still continue. The Phillies bats should wake up here as they have some guys in their lineup that have enjoyed success against Perez plus they will go with a lineup heavy on right-handed lumber. Perez was very strong last season against lefties but not as dominant against righties. Also, it was a bit of a career year for Perez in terms of his performance and I am not convinced he will repeat such success this season. As for Falter, he throws strikes and pitches to contact and is not overpowering. That all sounds like it will lead to disaster against this Rangers lineup the way they are swinging the sticks right now. In other words, a lefty that can be crafty at times but is still rather young and unpolished and is not overpowering...this is not a recipe for success against a team that has scored 27 runs in the first two games of this series. We get value here with a low total as I like our chances that each team gets to 4 runs here. That would mean a game that must end 5-4 at least and that would lead to a winning ticket for us. OVER 8.5 in Texas

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers had an insane 9-run bottom of the 4th versus the Phillies in Thursday's season opener. Texas was outscored 7-2 by the Phillies except for that 9-run 4th. Now that is not say the Rangers were not deserving of the win or that the complexion of the game did not change after that. But the point is that Philadelphia was not so bad except for one disaster half-inning. Look for the Phillies to respond in a big way here. Wheeler is their top pitcher and has a low BAA in recent seasons. Eovaldi coming off a solid season but look at his BAA numbers and they do not compare to Wheeler's. I expect Eovaldi to get lit up by the Phillies lineup that is still strong, even without Hoskins and Harper! As for Wheeler, he is certainly capable of dominating this start. The Phillies blew a 5-0 lead in that 11-7 loss Thursday. They were strong last season when coming off big losses. I look for that trend to continue here. Wheeler had a 1.50 ERA in his 2 starts against Texas last season. The Phils should bounce back big here and they offer solid money line value here at a low price with their ace on the mound. PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Friday OVER 8 in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies pounded out 17 hits yesterday. Couple that with the fact the Padres are in bounce back mode and facing a Rockies pitcher that had a rough spring training and that they have hit hard in recent seasons, I look for plenty of runs here. Freeland has been absolutely rocked by the Padres each of the last two seasons and their newest addition, Bogaerts, pounded out 3 hits in yesterday's loss. The rest of the team will help him today and we'll see plenty of runs. Even though I respect Martinez, I still feel strongly that the Padres right-hander will get hit hard by the Rockies as they bring momentum from yesterday's game. Martinez gave up 22 hits in 16 innings in last season's meetings with the Rockies. Freeland faces a Padres lineup made stronger with the addition of Bogaerts and his past struggles versus San Diego bodes well for a Padres bounce back here. So both teams score well as I also like the fact 4 of Colorado's runs yesterday were against the relievers. OVER 8 in San Diego

MLB Thursday OVER 6.5 in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - We get a low total of 6.5 here because Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom are both highly respected pitchers and deservedly so. However, Nola got rocked in his final spring training start and contract extension discussions stalling out could be effecting his psyche. As for deGrom, he has been dealing with an issue in his left side and will be on a pitch count here. The Rangers lineup looks much improved. The Phillies lineup, even without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins, looks ultra dangerous especially with the addition of Trea Turner. Both teams have some hitters coming in hot from spring training success. Last but certainly not least the wind is expected to be blowing out at a pretty good clip for this one. We get line value because of the big name pitchers involved but I feel all of the above variables including the weather should help lead the way to a game that gets to 7 runs at least. OVER 6.5 IN Texas

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +135 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters are Wheeler and Valdez. The Phillies right-hander got roughed up in his only start in this series while the Astros southpaw was great. The odds makers did not get the memo. They opened up with Houston, at home, laying only a -135 price in this one. Sure looks easy to take the Astros at home here, right? You know what happens when something looks too easy usually, right? Well the thing is Wheeler is capable of throwing a gem and the Phillies powerful lineup is certainly capable of coming up big against Valdez in the rematch. This series has the feel of a 7-game series and I am confident we are going to get there. Don't let the line fool you. The Phillies are the play here. The last 4 times when Wheeler was making a road start and Philadelphia had lost in his prior start, the Phillies won that game all 4 times. Look for the run to improve to 5-0 here as the underdogs get back up off the mat to force a Game 7 even though no one else believes in them here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +135

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +147 vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Remember when the Phillies lost to Astros 10-0 early last month when they faced Verlander the night after clinching a post-season berth? Then remember what happened when they faced Verlander in Game 1 of this series and got the huge comeback win? Lets throw out the outlier that the double digit loss was given the situation. The last 6 times the Phillies are off a loss by a single digit margin they have won their next game all 6 times! That includes every time in this post-season including their first game of the post-season too when they were off a loss in their regular season finale. Syndergaard may not pitch more than 3 innings here so this is more about the bullpens and the Phillies bullpen has been great. I know Verlander is a great pitcher but he has now struggled in 2 of his 3 starts in the post-season. Also, this will be his first road start since September! Of course he is a veteran pitcher and he is a fantastic pitcher but still a road start against a team that just came back on you when you had a 5-0 lead is not the easiest. After Phillies got no-hit yesterday, look for them to connect on some big shots against Verlander and that will be enough to get the crucial home game for them as they know this game is essentially do or die. If they lose Game 5 at home they would have to win both games at Houston and that is not likely. All signs point to a Phillies bounce back here no matter the starting pitchers. Grab the home dog! One final interesting note here is these teams have played 37 innings so far and the Astros have scored in only 5 of the frames. The Phillies have not been tremendously better but they entered last night's game with runs scored in 8 of 27 innings prior to Wednesday's loss. After getting no-hit at home I am sure this powerhouse lineup bounces back tonight. Look for Phillies to make it 7-0 last 7 times they were off a loss by a single digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA +147

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. When a team hits 5 homers in a game with a total of only 7.5 runs and it still stays under the total that says a lot! That was Game 3 last night. This followed a Game 2 in Houston that also totaled 7 runs. I am looking for 7 or less again tonight. This one looks like it will be the lowest-scoring of the bunch the way I see it. I will make this wager with action on pitchers as I expect things to tighten up a bit at the plate in this one and the losing team has scored an average of just 1 run last two games. Could this be a 2-1 pitchers duel? I sure think so. Cristian Javier is expected to get the start here and he is so tough to hit and has been pitching extremely well late in the year. Also, the Phillies do not have experience against him so this is a big edge for Javier. As for Philadelphia's expected starter Aaron Nola, I am looking for a bounce back effort at home after he struggled in Game 1 of this series. Nola has been rock solid at Citizens Bank Park throughout his career and I expect his breaking stuff, which can be devasting to hitters, to be on point in this one at home where he is so comfortable on the mound. 10* UNDER 7.5 in Philadelphia

NOTE: A lot of this is from yesterday's write-up (game rained out) but I am still going with this play though Suarez is now expected to start instead of Syndergaard in this one: MLB Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 vs Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Remember when the Phillies lost to Astros 10-0 early this month when they faced Verlander the night after clinching a post-season berth? Then remember what happened when they faced Verlander in Game 1 of this series and got the huge comeback win? Lets throw out the outlier that the double digit loss was given the situation. The last 5 times the Phillies are off a loss by a single digit margin they have won their next game all 5 times! That includes every time in this post-season including their first game of the post-season too when they were off a loss in their regular season finale. Suarez is averaging only 3 and 2/3 innings last 4 starts so this is more about the bullpens and the Phillies bullpen has been great and is well-rested here. McCullers expected to get more work than Suarez here but McCullers just got rocked by a Yankees team that was struggling to hit anyone in this post-season. That is not a good sign for McCullers as he now faces a Phillies lineup that is so confident and has hit so well at home. This one turns into a home rout in my opinion. All signs point to a Phillies bounce back here no matter the starting pitchers. Grab the home dog! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. Game 1 played out in the best way possible for the Phillies. The old saying of "a win is a win" is very true but, in this case, there might be no win better than that one for the Phillies to have a solid shot at winning the World Series. They were down 5-0 and on the road and facing a guy by the name of Justin Verlander! The fact the Phillies came back to tie it up quickly and then to eventually win it in the 10th inning is a huge boost in confidence. Philadelphia already came into this series with confidence but now they are starting to really believe. That makes for a dangerous dog and this is especially true when they have their best pitcher on the mound. Zack Wheeler over Framber Valdez here but I really don't care who the pitchers are. You saw how unimportant that was again yesterday. Hats off to Tucker for a huge game for the Astros but this Phillies team still has the more complete and confident lineup right now and that will shine through again here today. 10* PHILADELPHIA +130 

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +155 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - I am not going to sit here and tell you negative things about the Astros and Justin Verlander. The fact is this play is all about the line value. We get a red hot Phillies team with a pitcher capable of dominating and that pitcher, Aaron Nola, is from Baton Rouge LA which is only a 4 hour drive from Houston. Rest assured that making this World Series start near where he grew up is extra special. Nola has proven to be a big game pitcher and he was excellent on the road this season. He enters this start having allowed 1 earned run or less in 10 of his last 15 starts dating back the regular season. He is off a rare bad start at San Diego and in the regular season this year, when he was off a start in which he allowed 5 or more earned runs, he allowed a TOTAL of just 2 earned runs in 5 starts! That's right, after those 5 bad starts, he allowed 1 earned run twice and 0 earned runs 3 times. Complete dominance. Verlander did dominate the Phillies when he faced them earlier this month but the Phillies, who clinched a National League Wild Card berth the day before, rested a number of their regular starting position players including Jean Segura, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber! Verlander is off a great post-season start versus the Yankees but got rocked by the Mariners in the start before that. He is a great pitcher and the Astros are a great team but there is something special going on with this Phillies team right now. Nola is capable of a dominating start here and the Phillies have some long-ball hitters that could surprise Verlander here with a couple of key homers. ACTION ON PITCHERS as I am riding the big dog Phillies for a shocker in Game 1 no matter the starting pitching write-up. 10* Philadelphia +155

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 vs San Diego Padres @ 2:37 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. Now the Padres have lost 3 of 4 to the Phillies so far in this series including B2B games here in Philly. Coming back from giving up 4 runs in the top of the first yesterday shows the strength of this Philadelphia team this season both physically and mentally. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 9th win in 11th post-season game thus far. Zack Wheeler has allowed just 1 homer in his last 7 starts! Conversely, Yu Darvish has allowed 6 homers in his 3 post-season starts. Darvish also struggled with the longball late this season and this Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. He pitched very well against Philly in San Diego but still was done in by 2 homers in the game while Wheeler pitched a 1-hitter over 7 scoreless innings in that match-up with Darvish! Now they meet again in Philly and Wheeler had a 1.85 ERA at home this season while Darvish had a 3.50 ERA on the road this season. I am riding this streaking Phillies team again and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to avoid having to go back to San Diego and to punch their ticket to the World Series today! 10* PHILADELPHIA -135

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs San Diego Padres @ 7:45 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies are 17-5 last 22 home games including 3-0 in post-season. Overall, Philadelphia was 6-2 so far in the post-season before Nola's rare bad start in Game 2 cost them and they are now 7-3 in playoffs after they bounced back with a win last night. You can see why, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like the Phillies at home at a great price for this as it is in the pick'em range. Now I will briefly touch on the pitchers. Mike Clevinger starts for San Diego and he got rocked at LA by Dodgers last week. That was 4th straight ugly road outing for him dating back to regular season as each of his last 3 in regular season were rough. Now he pitches at Philly where the Phils do tend to hit much better than when on the road. As for Bailey Falter, he was a pleasant surprise for the Phillies this season. Yes, there could be some rust here after the layoff but I expect the lefty to settle in nicely at home in this one. The Phillies bullpen has been solid too in this post-season. The Phils continue to be under-valued by the betting markets and we'll continue to take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +103 vs San Diego Padres @ 7:37 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies are 16-5 last 21 home games including 2-0 in post-season. The Phillies are 5-2 last 7 times they were at home and coming off a loss. Philadelphia was 6-2 so far in the post-season before Nola's rare bad start in Game 2 cost them. The Padres are 0-3 last 3 times they were off a win in which they scored more than 5 runs. You can see why, regardless of the pitching match-up here, I like the Phillies at home at a great price for this as it is in the pick'em range. Now I will briefly touch on the pitchers. Certainly Joe Musgrove is solid but he had one of his worst starts of the season in his only outing against the Phillies this season as he allowed 6 earned runs and that start wasn't even at Philly where the Phils do tend to hit better. As for Suarez, he finished the regular season with a bad start versus Astros but that was on short rest and he could have been wearing down late in the season. He had just 4 days off between games and tends to better with 5 or 6 in between. Now, after a tough post-season start where he struggled with command of his pitches, he is very well rested here as he has not pitched in over a week and I expect he'll bounce back strong here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +103

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play New York Yankees Money Line +145 @ Houston Astros @ 7:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Look for Yankees to bounce back here after dropping Game 1 in a very tough scheduling situation after just wrapping up their series with the Guardians the night before in New York. Now the Yankees are settled here in Houston and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2. I will touch on the starting pitchers though they are not the most important factor for me. I know Severino struggled in his post-season start and it was on the road. However, he gave up only 16 hits over 40 innings on the road dating back to mid-May this season. Severino has been fantastic on the road and I feel he will come up big here. Valdez is off a solid post-season start for the Astros but he did have some struggles late this season and I have a feeling the Yankees bigger hitters are going to do some damage in this game tonight. New York is 6-2 last 8 times when off a loss. Houston is 4-0 so far in the post-season and on a 6-game run dating back to the regular season. However, this matches their longest winning streak of the year which means #7 is again likely to be a loss. The odds favor that. Prior to this 6-game run the Astros were 2-6 this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 4 or more games. The run ends here as the Yankees get back in this series with a big win tonight. 10* NEW YORK YANKEES +145

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 @ San Diego Padres @ 4:35 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. As mentioned yesterday, 2 of the last 3 times Padres entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games they lost the 4th game and it happened again yesterday as San Diego barely managed to even get any hits. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 7th win in 8th post-season game thus far. Snell was better against the Dodgers than in his first start of the playoffs against the Mets but still he has nearly a 2.00 WHIP so far in this post-season which means he is averaging allowing a total of 2 baserunners per inning! Not good! Also, Snell struggled in his 2 starts versus Phillies this season. Nola has not allowed a single earned run in his two post-season starts and in 4 of last 5 dating back to regular season. Nola's only drawback, and it has not happened much lately, is he is susceptible to one bad inning. But that has happened much lately and the way the Padres are doing I don't know if they can string anything together against him like that anyway. But truly if you check his starts he almost always hangs goose eggs on the scoreboard for the opposition and then for the games that don't go like that nearly all the way through, he'll have one bad inning where he gives up a 3-run homer or a 4-spot. I just don't see that happening with San Diego and Nola's stuff has been so sharp he should be able to come up with another gem here. Either way, regardless of starting pitching, I like the Phillies here. This Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. I am grabbing the underdog value here with a streaking Phillies team and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to take Game 2 Wednesday as note their bullpen has also been rock solid as well! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +115 @ San Diego Padres @ 8:03 ET - Action on pitchers. I do like this pitching match-up in terms of being in favor of the Phillies but either way I like Philadelphia here. San Diego had lost 7 of 12 games before coming up with 3 straight wins over the rival Dodgers. 2 of the last 3 times Padres entered a game on a winning streak of 3 games they lost the 4th game. Philly has the stronger lineup that is more confident right now and Phillies just seem like a team of destiny right now. Everything has fallen into place for them during a magical run and now lets talk about the expected starting pitchers as Phillies go for 6th win in 7th post-season game thus far. Zack Wheeler has allowed just 1 homer in his last 6 starts! Conversely, Yu Darvish has allowed 4 homers in his 2 post-season starts. I know what you are thinking...those were on the road and now he is at home...but, he actually has allowed 9 homers in his last 5 home starts! Darvish has struggled with the longball late this season and this Phillies team is loaded with dangerous power. I am grabbing the underdog value here with a streaking Phillies team and taking action on the pitchers as I look for them to take Game 1 Tuesday! 10* PHILADELPHIA +115

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians +145 or +150 @ New York Yankees @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Rain out yesterday so now it likely will be Nestor Cortes going for the Yankees instead of Jameson Taillon. Note that Taillon coming out of the bullpen would be great too. The Guardians have had the better pen in this series and Taillon would be seeking redemption after being charged with the loss in Game 2 despite recording an official ZERO innings of work! How did this happen? He came on in relief in the 10th inning and allowed 3 straight hits and 2 runs without recording an out! Were it not for Clarke Schmidt getting out of a man on second with no outs situation, Taillon would have been charged with 3 runs instead of just 2. I know he would want to bounce back here but also he did allow 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 regular season starts too. Even if Taillon does not end up pitching here note that Cortes allowed 6 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings of work against Cleveland earlier in this series and now is starting on short rest. No matter the starters I like the Guardians here but I will mention that Cleveland expected starter Aaron Civale had a 3.00 ERA in his final 10 regular season starts. Again, this pick is action so is not just about the pitchers. I feel all the pressure is on the Yankees here to win at home and note they are 1-4 the last 5 times they were off a win! As for the Guardians, they were on a 28-7 (80% WIN RATE) last 35 games prior to Sunday's loss. The road team pulls off the shocker here and I love the money line value in this one! 10* CLEVELAND +145 or +150

Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Guardians Run Line +1.5 -115 vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - All the momentum and the home field edge with Guardians here. Each and every season it seems Yankees find a way to disappoint their huge fan base. They had a great regular season but they have now had B2B gut-wrenching losses! They lost 4-2 in Game 2 in New York in 10 innings. Then they took a 5-3 lead to bottom of 9th yesterday at Cleveland but still lost. I know Cole is a fantastic pitcher but Cleveland had a few chances in that Game One 4-1 loss and I feel they will be even better here against him. The Guardians confidence is sky high right now and of course now they get Cole at home. I also expect Quantrill to be even better here because he is at home for this one. He was 9-0 with a 3.28 ERA in the regular season in home starts! Cole had a solid, yet modest, 3.81 ERA in road outings this season. Also, he allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 7 homers over his last 4 road starts and those outings averaged only 5 and 2/3 per start. Anyway I am going with action on pitchers as the Guardians wrapped up the regular season on a 24-6 run and 2 of those 6 losses were by just 1 run so I like the very strong odds on at least a run line cover though I do feel Cleveland will win outright here to advance to ALCS. Guardians already 3-0 in home games in this post-season. 10* CLEVELAND run line +1.5 -115

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Atlanta Braves @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. No one wants to believe in these Phillies. Not even the betting markets. This line opened with Philadelphia as a slight favorite and I feel strongly the odds makers had it right. However, the markets have turned this one around and now the Braves are as high as a -125 favorite here. First off, regardless of the pitching match-up, I like the Phillies here. They have been hotter at home than the Braves have been on the road. Also, they have unquestionably the better and stronger lineup than Atlanta and proved that again yesterday. Atlanta misses Freddie Freeman and of course Ronald Acuna is not the same guy he was before. He just has not been right. So that is two big bats that were key to past Braves success. Phillies at home in front of a raucous crowd, I don't see how you fade that. I am assuming it is the anti-Syndergaard sentiment and I get that. He is unlikely to dominate here. But he has had some solid outings for Philly and one thing helping him in that regard here in terms of odds of being solid is that he is at home and also that he has pitched only 1 inning against Atlanta the last 3 seasons combined! That means the Braves do not have much familiarity with him. This is completely the opposite of the situation with Charlie Morton. He has started FIVE times against the Phillies this season alone and he has been hit hard in 4 of the 5 outings including all 3 in Philly. Look for the Phils to punch their ticket to the NLCS Saturday! 10* PHILADELPHIA +110

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:37 ET - Action on pitchers because Braves not even 100% sure who they are going with as a starter here. Perhaps Strider as more of an opener here or Morton as more of a traditional starter here. Either way I like the Phillies here to bounce back at home off that Game 2 shutout loss. The Phillies are 22-9 last 31 home games and this will be their first home game in almost 3 weeks! The fact Philadelphia still was getting the job done on the road so far in this post-season says a lot as they had won 3 straight away from home. Now the Phillies should have Aaron Nola on the mound. Again I like Philly at home here no matter who pitches but now will touch on Nola in this spot. Throughout this career Nola has had fantastic success in home starts for Philly. Also, his repertoire of pitches was looking phenomenal down the stretch run and he can be so tough when he is "on" as he so often is when he is at home. Nola has a record of 39-17 in home outings the last 6 seasons combined! The Braves are 6-9 last 15 road games. That is a 40% win rate while the Phillies winning 71% of their home games over the past few months! 10* PHILADELPHIA -115

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:37 ET - Action on pitchers. First off, the Mariners 7 of last 8 games have totaled 7 or more runs. In fact, those 8 games have averaged 12 runs per game. This is excellent value with the low total here. The Astros have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those games. This is why I really don't care what pitchers do go but the expected match-up is Castillo versus Valdez. Note that Castillo is off another season in which he is worse on the road that at home. This is nothing new with him and I expect that trend to continue here. As for Valdez, he has great full season numbers but he did allow 3 earned runs both of the times he faced the Mariners. Also, he is coming off a September in which he was hit hard in 3 of the 5 starts including 2 in which he really got rocked. 10* OVER 6.5 in Houston

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres +1.5 -130 @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. Of course the Dodgers are a great team and Kershaw is a fantastic pitcher. However, Darvish is a solid pitcher in his own right and he is off the great start versus the Mets which is part of the reason San Diego advanced to this NLDS. Darvish also had some solid outings versus the Dodgers this season and I expect another solid outing from him here. I like the Padres no matter the starting pitchers here as I am looking for a big bounce back here. In last night's loss San Diego did have more hits than Los Angeles but the difference in the 5-3 loss was LA went 3 for 8 with runners in scoring position while San Diego went 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Dodgers actually were on a 5-6 run last 11 home games prior to last night's win. In fact, in last dozen home games prior to last night's win only 5 of the 12 games were Dodgers wins by 2 or more runs. Like the value of the +1.5 with San Diego in this one. Prior to an ugly regular season loss in their season finale, the Padres were on an 11-6 run in which only 2 of the 6 losses were by more than a single run. That means that at +1.5 runs San Diego was 15-2 in those 17 games. This is going to be another tight game tonight and the +1.5 runs could prove invaluable in this one but an outright upset for the road team also would not surprise me in the least here. 10* SAN DIEGO +1.5

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:37 ET - I know this is playoff baseball but I like this over regardless of the starting pitchers. In road games Cleveland has won 11 of last 12 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those dozen games! The Yankees are one of the best home teams in baseball and have averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. New York won 9 of last 11 home games this season and scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 games that went full 9 innings (one was rain-shortened to 6 innings). So both teams should hit just fine here on a mild evening in the Bronx and the ball should carry well. That is why I like this over regardless of starting pitchers but I will mention that Cole was only 4-6 with a 4.12 ERA in the second half of the season. Also, Quantrill was great at home but he was only 6-5 in road games and opponents hit .282 against him away from home this season. Also, he got hit a .300 clip in September and this was 3rd time in 4 months that opponents hit at least .282 against him. He is not a big strikeout pitcher and that bodes well for a Yankees club that was better this season in terms of striking out but still strike out a little bit too frequently. That should not be an issue here and, by the way, the Guardians struck out the least of any team in the league this season. Put the ball in play and good things can happen. This total opened up as high as a 7.5 and I am now even seeing some 6.5 start to pop up on this one. 10* OVER 7 in New York Yankees

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -130 @ Atlanta Braves @ 1:07 ET - Phillies have a great shot at stealing Game 1 of this series but, even if they do not, a 1-run loss would be the most likely type of defeat they suffer. Suarez was great against the Braves late in the season. In his last 3 starts against them he allowed a total of only 1 earned run. As for Fried, in his last 3 starts against the Phillies this season he allowed a total of 6 earned runs. The Atlanta lefty allowed 9 hits in 6 innings in one of those starts and allowed 2 homers in another one of the starts versus Philadelphia. Regardless of the starting pitching match-up here, I like the fact the Phillies are rolling with confidence right now after their big comeback win in Game 1 of the Cardinals series and then getting a shutout win in Game 2 at St Louis. Could the time off for Braves hurt them here? They have, of course, not played a game in nearly a week. Of Atlanta's last 15 games of the regular season only 6 (40%) were wins by 2 or more runs. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -130

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in New York Mets vs San Diego Padres @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Okay so I know this is an elimination game and those tend to play out to be tighter low-scoring games. However, this is unique in this wild card round because is not like in a regular series where you may have aces going in the elimination game. These two teams already used their best pitchers Friday and Saturday. Now on Sunday the scheduled pitching match-up is Musgrove versus Bassitt. Certainly both pitchers capable of a solid start but also each capable of getting roughed up a bit on the regular. Simply put these are not aces. Consider that plus each of the first two games of this series got to at least 8 runs. Consider also that 5 homers were hit Friday and 3 homers hit Saturday. All these factors have me lining up on the over here regardless of the starting pitching match-up. Take action on the pitchers and look for at least 7 runs here. 10* OVER 6.5 in New York Mets

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:37 ET - Action on pitchers. This play is all about the momentum as well as the mental state of each club after Phillies came back huge in the top of the 9th for 6 runs in yesterday's win! Winning game 1 in a best of 3 is huge and Philadelphia will draw off the high emotion and I expect them to hit well at the plate today. The expected pitching match-up is Nola and Mikolas so it is a good one. But look for the key to be the above and now I will briefly touch on the expected pitching match-up as the Phillies look to close this one out with their long-time ace on the mound. Nola has a 3.00 ERA in road games this season, had a 2.93 ERA in September and had a no-hitter going with two outs in 7th inning in his most recent start. He is in top form to say the least. The Cardinals Mikolas is known for being solid at home but he had a 4.39 ERA in the 2nd half of the season and that was two runs higher than his ERA in the first half of the season. Look for Phillies to close this out today because, as I mentioned yesterday, they also have the deeper lineup in this match-up. The only 2 runs the Cardinals got yesterday were off a reliever who gave up his first runs since August! Yes, this Phillies bullpen has some solid arms too! 10* PHILADELPHIA -110

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - The Mariners got the shutout win yesterday. The Blue Jays bounce back today. I like this play no matter the starting pitchers but will mention that Ray was not as good in the 2nd half of the season as the first. Also, Ray is not as good on the road as he is at home. Ray wrapped up the season allowing 4 or more earned runs in 3 of last 5 starts. Gausman also struggled a bit recently plus left his last start with a laceration on a finger on this throwing hand. He was already struggling and now this in the back of his mind won't help things either. I know the Mariners have a good bullpen but Blue Jays off a home shutout are going to respond here against Ray and whoever else Seattle ends up throwing at them in this one. As for the Mariners lineup they should hit Gausman had as his struggles continue. Note that Seattle has now won 8 of 10 and scored an average of 5 runs per game. The Jays, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 11 of 18 and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. I totally understand the total being set at 7 here but feel it will prove to be far too low given all of the above. 10* OVER 7 in Toronto

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -130 vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. The Mariners wrapped up the season losing 7 of last 10 road games and I feel the Blue Jays home edge will be a factor here. The home team won 6 of 7 games between these teams this season. Toronto wrapped up the season with wins in 8 of last 11 games. The Jays finished the regular season on a 31-16 run. I know the Mariners have a solid bullpen but I really like this Toronto lineup much more than that of Seattle's. Regardless of the starting pitchers I like the Blue Jays but now I will touch on them here. The Jays Alex Manoah is now 25-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a .198 BAA in his young career. This guy is a beast on the mound! As for the Mariners Luis Castillo, he most definitely is a solid veteran. However, he was just 4-5 in road games this season and his day game ERA was more than a full run higher than his night game ERA this season. I don't think the lesser numbers on the road are a fluke either. Last season, Castillo went 2-8 with a 4.87 ERA in road games! In 2020 he was 2-5 with a 4.12 ERA away from home! Keep in mind that it is not just the venue pitch in or that you are away from home. When you are a visiting pitcher you are "waiting around" to start the game. Some guys do well with that. But many, like Castillo, like to be at home and be that first hurler on the mound as, of course, the visitors always bat first! Circling back to the biggest key here, home team with stronger lineup! Lay it! 10* TORONTO -130

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters are Zack Wheeler and Jose Quintana. The Cardinals went 8-5 against the Nationals and Marlins this season. Against the rest of NL East they went 8-13. This is a quality St Louis team for sure but lets not forget they certainly were helped by beating up on weaker teams in their division like the Cubs, Pirates and Reds! The Phillies are 28-18 against left-handed starters this season. I like this play regardless of the pitchers as this is the only game on the board in which the home team is not a favorite. Trust me, this line is a pick'em for a reason and the Phillies have the bigger bats in this match-up. Note too that Quintana has a 5.40 ERA in post-season appearances and that was 5 years ago when he was with the Cubs. Also, this season he was winless with a 3.74 ERA in his 11 day game starts. Wheeler is back now for Phillies and healthy. This was the 3rd straight season he has an ERA of 2.92 or less for the season! He is a beast and held opponents to a batting average of .221 this season after holding them to just .215 last season. Wheeler went 2-0 against the Cardinals with a 0.00 ERA and just 9 hits allowed in 14 scoreless innings of work! Of course I like the pitching edges here but even if these starters do not go I like this play. Hence, action on the pitchers. Keep in mind the Phillies now have Bryce Harper and Jean Segura back and made the playoffs despite NEITHER one of those guys making the century mark in games played in the regular season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - Action on pitchers. As I have stated many times in the past, the odds makers are some of the sharpest people around. There is a reason that of only about a half dozen games with early lines available on the final day of the regular season, this was has the HIGHEST total despite the Reds being a low-scoring SLUMP that has gone for weeks. Historically I love playing overs in day games in Cincinnati and I do look for Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft to get rocked here. The right-hander is winless in his 6 day games starts this season and has a 6.52 ERA in those outings and has been hit at over a .300 clip! The Cubs had been hot coming into this series and I expect them to pound him. The Reds also should tee off. I know Chicago's Adrian Sampson has solid numbers this season including against the Reds. However, his lone start here in Cincinnati saw him allow 6 hits and walk 3 in just 4 innings. Suffice to say, Sampson was fortunate the damage was only 2 earned runs. Last year against Cincy, the Cubs right-hander allowed 11 hits in 9 innings of work. It has been awhile since Reds off B2B wins but the last time they had won 2 straight they then made it 3 straight with another win in which they scored 8 runs. As for the Cubs sticks bouncing back here, they entered this series having won 11 of 12 and scoring an average of 5 runs per game in their last 8 victories. They will bounce back here after B2B losses and the Reds also look to close out the season with a bang at home and that is why, regardless of starting pitchers (my play is action), I am going with the over here. 10* OVER 8 in Cincinnati

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4 ET - Action on pitchers. We get a low total because Ohtani is on the mound for the Angels and because the A's are known for struggling to score runs. I am going to take advantage here for multiple reasons. First off, the Angels just faced a lefty in last night's 2-1 tenth inning loss. Their lineup only featured one left-handed bat and that was Ohtani. That is a key here because Waldichuk is a left-handed hurler for the A's and he has been strong against lefties but righties are hitting over .300 against him and overall the rookie has struggled. I am looking for the Angels to bounce back here as they had been winning a lot of games and scoring well prior to last night's loss. They should crush Waldichuk and get this over by themselves. However, don't be surprised if Oakland scratches some runs off Ohtani. Yes he is tough but, throughout his career, his numbers on the road have paled in comparison to his numbers when he is starting on his home mound. Take advantage of the low total and, regardless of the starting pitchers (my play is action), we get payback for last night's ugly loss with our over involving these teams. The final men left on base tally for the game was 20 in 10 innings. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Regulars know we had this play last night and, on the one hand, we were fortunate to win last night. That's because the game was 4-0 heading to bottom of the 8th and then A's got 2 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to force extra innings and won it in the bottom of the 10th. While I am grateful for the win for sure 100% I do feel it is one we deserved all along. No game on the board last night had as many hits as ours did and it was simply a game of wasted opportunities for Oakland before the late breakthrough. The A's left 13 men on base in the game! As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up, the Angels have been hot very late in the season and A's home games very quietly have been higher-scoring recently than people realize. I look for these trends to continue here and that is why I like this one regardless of who the starting pitchers end up being. Take action on this one. However, I will say that the expected starters are Michael Lorenzen and Cole Irvin. Note that Lorenzen is 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in road starts and Irvin has an 8.23 ERA with a .351 batting average against in his 5 September starts. Look for Lorenzen's road struggles to continue against a surprisingly confident Athletics lineup and look for Angels to add to the late-season misery Irvin has been suffering. 10* OVER 7 in Oakland

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I know these teams fell short yesterday but I look for a lot more scoring here on a pleasant fall evening in Chicago. The White Sox last homestand saw the 6 games average 9 runs apeice. Now we are seeing a total as low as 7 on this one. It has dropped too low. Chicago has allowed an average of 6 runs per game last 7 home games even including yesterday's low-scoring 3-2 win. The Twins last 7 road games before yesterday's 3-2 loss had averaged 8 runs per game. Again, this total just creeping too low. I get it, based on current trending, but yet you can see why expecting this game to get to 8 or 9 runs is not expecting too much. I like this game regardless of the starting pitching but the expected starters also further strengthen this one. Lucas Giolito is 4-7 with a 6.43 ERA at home this season. Josh Winder is 0-3 with a 6.29 ERA in his last 5 starts. 10* OVER 7 in Chicago White Sox

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a low total because the A's are known for struggling so bad at the plate and because the Angels have Patrick Sandoval on the mound. However, Sandoval has been hit at a .275 clip this month and has a 1.40 WHIP in September so he seems to be fading a bit here late in the season. Plus he just faced Oakland and they got to him for 3 earned runs in 5 innings in that one last week. This is a late-season match-up between two teams both just playing out the string on the season as post-season hopes were gone long ago. That said, this is when hitters are most relaxed at the plate and the Angels are indeed playing their best baseball of the season. Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and averaged 5.3 runs per game during this stretch. The Angels will tee off on a struggling Adrian Martinez as he has been roughed up over his last 4 starts with 19 earned runs allowed on 29 hits in 18.1 innings of work. He also just faced the Angels and they got to him for 3 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. The total posted here makes sense based on long-term metrics but it does not make sense based on the current situation. Even the A's are off a 10-3 win yesterday on the road and are now back home where each of their last 4 games totaled MORE than 10 runs and, in fact, averaged 14 runs apiece! That is DOUBLE the total posted on this game! Over is 4-0 L4 A's home games! 10* OVER 7 in Oakland