MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:40 ET - The Padres should hammer Taillon. The Cubs righty is off to a tough start this season and I like the fact this total was a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 in most spots. I totally understand the move but respect the number the odds makers first had up there on this one. That said, Taillon consistently has been roughed up in his starts and though Michael Wacha has been pitching well for San Diego, I am expecting a solid effort from Chicago. The Cubs last road trip last 9 games and started with a 6-2 win and ended with a 2-1 loss. But in the middle were 7 games that all totaled double digits and average 13 runs per game! Perhaps the road will again get the Cubs sticks going again here. I also like the fact the Padres have scored 7 or more runs in 6 of last 10 games. San Diego averaged 6 runs scored per game during this stretch. More of the same here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Friday OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Lyles has been so consistently bad that you know he is destined to give up a handful of runs here. I know Anderson has pitched well for the Rockies but there are some signs that the wheels are about to come off in one of these starts. Royals do tend to hit a little better at home and Colorado can be counted on to do damage against a struggling Lyles here. That said, and considering a pair of suspect bullpens (as Rockies showed again last night), look for this one to get to double digits in runs scored. OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

Serie A Friday OVER 3 in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina @ 2:30 ET - Fiorentina could be distracted with the big match in Prague against West Ham United coming up in 5 days. That plus the fact Sassuolo is at home means they should score some goals here. However, Fiorentina has been scoring well of late and that continues here. With just 4 draws in 18 matches and high likelihood each club scores here, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final and, given the situation, we should see much much more. OVER 3 in Sassuolo

Italian Serie B Friday Bari Money Line -115 vs Sudtirol @ 2:30 ET - This is the 2nd leg in a battle for a shot at promotion to Serie A and Sudtirol took the 1st match 1-0. The fact is Bari was a bit unfortunate in that one and now they are at home and they also are the much more dangerous club on the attack. I know Sudtirol is strong defensively and will again try to slow things down here but I don't expect them to be successful in that regard. Bari will be aggressive on their home pitch and they had great chances and possession edges in the first leg of this 2-leg battle. Now they get their revenge and get the win here. Take the hosts to get the win in this one. BARI -115

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - This total dropped from a 10 to a 9.5 and I like fading the line moves when other factors line up and that is certainly the case here. The Diamondbacks Zach Davies has not been right this season and is trying to now also come back from an oblique injury and the first start back did not go well at all. He is now 8-18 the past 3 seasons combined and with a high ERA in the 5.00 range these past 3 seasons combined. Davies will not be the only starter likely to struggle here. Note that Connor Seabold has struggled for the Rockies but whether it is him or Chase Anderson I like the over in this one. As per usual, I am going with action on the pitchers and Anderson did have an ugly 1.57 WHIP in the minors before he was called up. I know the journeyman veteran has had some surprising success this season in his limited MLB action in 2023 but he really struggled in the start before his most recent one. That was home against the Marlins and he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings and he had 2 walks against just 1 strikeout in that outing. Anderson is due for a regression to the mean and I think that Marlins start is a sign of the reality that is soon on the way for him. Regardless of starting pitchers I like the over here as neither bullpen has been good this season and I expect the hitting to resume like we had seen in Monday's game. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

Rotation #202401: German Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV @ 2:45 ET - Hamburger SV trying to get back to Bundesliga 1 after 5-year absence while Stuttgart trying to avoid relegation to Bundesliga 2 after 3 years in the top flight. This is the first leg of two and and I am sure the hosts will be strong here but Hamburger SV was the highest scoring team in Bundesliga 2 this season and I don't see them going away without a fight in this set of two matches with Stuttgart. Note that the visitors also were solid on the road this season and they have averaged 2 goals per match this season. The hosts are not very high-scoring but are at home here and certainly can take advantage of a Hamburger side that does allow quite a few goals particularly on the road. Additionally, the hosts are off a disappointing finish to the regular season and will want to rectify that here with a strong showing on their home pitch after a disappointing draw in their regular season finale as a host. Before that 1-1 disappointment, Stuttgart's last 8 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, the last 3 meetings between these clubs have averaged 5 goals apiece! Hamburger finished the regular season with a 1-0 win but, prior to this, their last 8 matches had averaged 5 goals apiece. OVER 3 +105 in Stuttgart

Rotation #206801: Romania Liga 1 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs U Craiova 1948 @ 1:30 ET - CFR Cluj let a 1-0 lead slip away in a frustrating 2-1 loss to Farul in their most recent match and it had their manager furious. That said, and you can tell by the money line of -200 and the goal line of -1, CFR Cluj is expected to respond in a big way here. While I do indeed expect a response from the hosts here in what should be a great atmosphere in Cluj, I am also expected U Craiova 1948 to put up a helluva fight in this one. This is a battle for European football with a shot at the Conference League. That said, U Craiova 1948 is going to battle here and they have averaged scoring 1.6 goals in their last 10 matches. As for CFR Cluj, they have scored 1.7 goals per match last 14 matches. After losing following a 1-0 lead against Farul, I am sure CFR Cluj is going to get a couple goals but I also see U Craiova 1948 being very tough to put away. That means strong odds on at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. As for the last 4 meetings between these clubs, 3 of 4 have totaled at least 4 goals and the 4 matches have averaged 4 goals. More of the same expected Thursday in what should be a very entertaining battle. OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +150 @ New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - 3 key angles here. The Phillies have never been swept in a series in the eastern time zone this season. Sweeps are rare to begin with and I don't see Phillies getting swept against division rival Mets. That is where the next couple of key angles comes in actually. Speaking of divisions and rivals, Scherzer use to pitch with Nationals and now is with Mets and so the Phillies see plenty of him and they actually have hit him well in recent meetings. Thirdly, and the other part of this rivalry aspect, Walker use to pitch for the Mets. Now he faces his former team and you know he will be up for this start. The underdog value is tough to pass up here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA +150

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -115 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Nola was really looking sharp and having great command of his pitches and looking like vintage Nola before his most recent start ended up being a tough one. I fully expect him to bounce right back here and he takes on Carrasco who has been struggling. His most recent start was better at Chicago but he had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts before that. So really you have a unique solid situation because you have Nola who had been pitching well but off a tough start and Carraco who had been struggling but is off a strong start. So extra line value here and Phillies off a tight 2-0 loss at New York yesterday so this is a great play on spot for Philadelphia. The Mets had lost 4 of 6 prior to yesterday's win and is 0-3 this season when off a shutout win. The Phillies are 3-1 this season when off a shutout loss. So this is a combined 86% YTD situation in favor of the road team here. PHILADELPHIA -115

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox lost yesterday's series opener to the Reds 9 to 8 and games at Fenway Park continue to trend toward being very high-scoring. 13 of last 16 games there have totaled at least 10 runs and these 16 games have averaged 13 runs apiece. We should see 11 runs at least here as the Red Sox and Reds bullpens rank in the middle of the pack. In terms of hitting, Boston is hitting .298 in home games this season which is #1 in the majors. Cincinnati is hitting .265 in road games this season which is #1 in the National League. As for the pitchers here, Luke Weaver is off a strong start but had allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts before that! James Paxton has made only 9 starts since the 2019 season because he has multiple injury issues. He is coming off an ugly outing and really has been quite unreliable since his successful campaign in 2019. Paxton is facing a Reds team that has won 4 straight games and 6 of last 8. In the 4 straight wins, the Reds have averaged 8.5 runs and have now scored 8 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games and overall have averaged 7 runs per game last 8 games. OVER 10.5 in Boston

Rotation #224401: Europa League Final Wednesday OVER 2 goals +120 in Sevilla vs Roma in Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary @ 3 ET - Yes this is a final and yes both clubs fully capable of being strong defensively and frustrating opponents. However, Sevilla also certainly has plenty of attacking options and this could force Roma to match them. I am looking for an early goal and this match to then play out a little more wide open than most are expecting here. I like the value with the total just 2 goals and +120 available as the comeback price at that total. Roma is known for lower-scoring matches but I fully expect Sevilla to force the issue here and that will make Roma answer them if they want to have a shot in this one. Looking for a 2-1 final as a result here. Note that Roma, in their Serie A action, have seen 7 of last 8 matches total at least 2 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Sevilla, they consistently have totaled 2 or more goals almost without exception in their matches across all competitions. OVER 2 goals +120 in Europa League Final

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:45 ET - I am going with action on the starting pitchers as usual but we will start there. The Cardinals Miles Mikolas is winless with a 5.86 ERA in his 5 home starts this season. He has been hit at a .336 clip in home starts this year. Zack Greinke expected to get the ball for the Royals in this one and he is 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Historically he has struggled on the road quite often in many of his MLB seasons. Last year he was 0-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his 14 home starts. Over the past two season he is now 0-10 in his 19 road starts and opponents have hit about .300 against him in those outings. The Royals have scored an average of 5 runs per game their last 7 games and will look to build off yesterday's 7-0 win. However, I am sure that the Cardinals will bounce back at home after being shutout and especially facing Greinke and one of the league's worst bullpens. The Cards, before yesterday's home shutout, had seen 9 of their last 12 home games total at least 9 runs. Those dozen games averaged 12.3 runs per game. Look for that type of scoring to resume here. OVER 9 in St Louis

MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers @ 6:40 ET - Alex Faedo coming off one of the best starts of his career and he totaled 10 strikeouts in that one which was the first time in his career he ever totaled more than 7 strikeouts. This is giving us some nice value here as the Tigers hurler is a little over-valued in this spot and I like the Rangers to hit him hard. At the same time, we get line value with Martin Perez on the hill for Texas because he has some good overall numbers. One of the keys here is that Perez has a high 4.87 ERA on the road this season and in all his starts this year he has a .294 BAA. He also got hit at a .294 clip in 2021. Looking at his career numbers you also realize that his great 2022 might have been more of a one-off success story than anything else. When you look at his career numbers season by season, Perez has had only two truly solid seasons. He is just one of those guys that has hung around but rarely been strong for a full season. With the way he is struggling on the road this season and the line value we have here, I will not hesitate to step in. Note that the Tigers bullpen BAA is 12th in the AL and the Rangers bullpen ERA is 12th in the AL. Taking action on pitchers as per usual as both bullpens should give some up here too and I like the value of the 8.5 and I like the fact the Tigers had averaged 5.2 runs scored per game last 10 games before being shutout yesterday. Also, the Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs scored per game last 16 games. Warm weather for this one too! OVER 8.5 in Detroit

Rotation #201405: Italian Serie B Tuesday OVER 2 -135 in Cagliari vs Parma @ 2:30 ET - This the first leg of a 2-match battle between these foes to earn promotion to Serie A, which is the highest level of football in Italy. It is a big deal to say the least! Both clubs have recently been in Serie A and what to get right back to it! The key here is the value of an over 2 and I see strong odds that each club scores at least once and I also do not see Parma settling for a draw here even at the possibility of being more aggressive leading to the deciding goal going the wrong way for them. Parma knows the next match is at home and I am expecting an aggressive approach from them here but note that Cagliari was one of the top home clubs in the league this season and averaged scoring 1.5 goals per match in their home matches. Also, Parma has fresh legs and are well-rested with a week and half off since their last match. So this sets up well for Parma to be particularly aggressive on the attack. Cagliari has scored at least 1 goal in 6 straight matches and has averaged scoring 2 goals per match during this stretch. Parma has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and has scored an average of 1.6 goals during this stretch! OVER 2 -135 in Cagliari

NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250

NHL Monday Dallas Stars Money Line -120 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - As I wrote in my write-up for Saturday's Game 5, the whole world was lining up on Vegas to close the series out at home. The line had moved the direction of the Golden Knights but that gave us exceptional value on the Stars as a sizable underdog in that one. Note that Vegas has only two wins by more than a 1-goal margin in their last 8 games. The point is that one can give Vegas credit for gutting out tight wins (including a couple in OT) but, as I stated here before Game 5, I feel we could see a major shift in momentum in this series after the Stars finally got a tight home win in Game 4 after losing the first 3 games of the series. That was an OT win and the key was Dallas finally seemed to figure out how to get inside a bit more on the Golden Knights and create more higher-percentage scoring opportunities. We took that knowledge of how the game played out and expected that the Stars would continue to build off the things they did well in Game 4 and, sure enough, Dallas did just that in Game 5. The Stars were rock solid in that 4-2 win and now can really continue the roll with captain Jamie Benn coming back for Game 6 plus this game being back on home ice. The way I see it, the momentum and the key situational value here all lies with the home team. DALLAS -120

MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:05 ET - The Athletics are starting Paul Blackburn and the Braves are starting Mike Soroka. Neither one of these guys have pitched in quite some time. No matter the starters here I do like the over as the Athletics continue to give up a lot of runs and are allowing 7 per game on the season. The Braves are coming of an 11-4 slugfest win over the Phillies last night. So the set up is a good one as Atlanta will pile up runs but their pitching is a question mark here. Soroka struggled some in his AAA rehab starts and this is his first start at the MLB level since the 2020 season due to multiple injury issues. Blackburn will be making his 2023 season debut as he has dealt with injuries and he did have some shaky rehab starts in the minors and now faces a dangerous Braves lineup.  Atlanta is off that 11-4 home win and also their last 4 road games have all totaled 11 or more runs. The Braves averaged 7 runs scored per game in those 4 away games. Oakland has lost 19 of 21 games and continues to give up piles of runs. OVER 8.5 in Oakland

English League One Playoff Final Monday Sheffield Wednesday Money Line +135 vs Barnsley at Wembley Stadium in London @ 10 AM ET - If you want to get to the Premier League you have to get to the Championship League first. The winner of this match takes that step and gets to the Championship League. I can't see this determined Sheffield Wednesday club falling short of that. They have the goal-scoring prowess and the way they got here gives them some of the strongest momentum you will ever see. Sheffield Wednesday lost the first leg of their two-match sequence with Peterborough United by a 4-0 count but then miraculous managed to take the 2nd match 5-1 and win the tie-breaker on penalty kicks. Sheffield Wednesday has won 5 of 6 matches. Conversely, though Barnsley snuck by the Bolton Wanderers to get there, they had gone winless in 4 straight matches before that and allowed an average of 2.5 goals in those 4 matches. SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY +135

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - This is a rare plus plus situation with a quality team. The Phillies are the defending NL champs but we can get them +1.5 runs +115 here - hence the plus plus - and I will not pass up on the value here. On the surface, based on the pitching match-up, it looks like a mismatch. However, Dylan Covey capable of doing a respectable job here and has looked manageable in recent work. At the same time, let's not forget Spencer Strider has not been as strong of late and he also got rocked when he most recently faced the Phillies in the post-season last year. The Phillies have some confidence from B2B wins so far in this series. Additionally, the Braves have now lost 10 of 16 and 3 of those 6 wins were by just a single run! Also, Atlanta scored an average of only 2.8 runs in those 10 losses! This is too much underdog value with a quality lineup. The Phillies bullpen has also been stepping up of late. More of the same here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 +115

MLB Sunday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a slugfest and today is a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field and, based on the weather report, the ball should be carrying very well. Gomber has struggled in this ballpark and gets the start for the Rockies here. Megill has been inconsistent and also is known for road struggles and this will be his first ever road start at Coors Field. Note he got hit hard by the Rockies last time he faced them and that was in New York. That said, this match-up will be even tougher for him. Colorado does score quite well at home and the Mets bats came to life yesterday and should pound out a bunch of hits and runs again here. The Rockies bullpen is an area of concern as evidenced by their numbers so far this season and the Colorado starter Gomber likely to get rocked. That has been his norm in home starts and the Mets are feeling it after yesterday's 10-7 win. OVER 12.5 in Colorado

Rotation #206934 Sunday CFR Cluj -159 vs Farul @ 1:30 ET - CFR Cluj has struggled in the playoff stage but still controls their own destiny in terms of Europa Conference League qualifiers. They are being chased by Universitatea Craiova but can seal the spot with a win. Considering Farul just won the league championship with the thrilling 3-2 comeback win over FCSB, there is no surprise that CFR Cluj is a heavy favorite here. This match means nothing to Farul but everything to CFR Cluj. The hosts are off a win versus Sepsi and will build off that momentum to come up with a big home win. This is just the 2nd match on their home pitch since another win over Sepsi in mid-April so I look for them to make the most of it with a big win as they qualify for a shot at European football. CFR Cluj -159

Rotation #206937: Romania Liga 1 Sunday OVER 2.5 +100 in Universitatea Craiova vs FC Sepsi @ 1:30 ET - Sepsi already qualified for European Football next season by winning the Romaniei Cupa. They will not be too excited about this game but that opens the door for Universitatea Craiova, needing to win and hoping CFR Cluj loses, to play an aggressive style here. I expect the hosts to be on the attack early and often in this contest while Sepsi just plays along at a similar pace. Sepsi also will be playing their last match under the current manager as he has decided not to renew his contract. So this will be interesting and is likely to lead to a rather wide open affair in this one. Sepsi and Universitatea Craiova have combined for 3 or more goals in 3 of last 4 meetings and, given the situation here, this one should get to at least 3 as well. Universitatea Craiova has both scored and conceded in 10 straight Liga 1 matches! That sets this one up well for goals and Sepsi, other than a scoreless draw with Rapid, has been allowing quite a few goals. More of the same likely here and I see a relaxed Sepsi club getting on the scoresheet here but also note that the hosts are 1-goal favorite on the goal line for a reason in this one! OVER 2.5 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #200029: English Premier League OVER 2.5 -150 in Leicester vs West Ham United @ 11:30 AM ET - Yes we have to lay some heavy juice on the over 2.5 but odds certainly point to getting to at least 3 here. Leicester needs to go hard for the full 3 points in the table and, at the same time, hope for help from others in terms of avoiding relegation. As for West Ham United, they can play a loose and relaxed style here with no pressure on them and with still being over a week away from their big match against Fiorentina in their Europa Conference League Final in Prague. Leicester off a rare scoreless draw with Newcastle United. Prior to this, Leicester's 3 prior matches all totaled at least 3 goals and those averaged 5 goals. Leicester will put some pressure on West Ham here because they have no choice but to attack and be aggressive but, at the same time, do note that the Hammers have scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 11 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 -150 in Leicester 

Rotation #200006: English Premier League Sunday Aston Villa +105 vs Brighton & Hove @ 11:30 AM ET - Brighton & Hove already punched their ticket to Europa League. Aston Villa controls their own destiny and has been strong at home and they are looking to punch their ticket to Europa Conference League with a win here. That said, the value is certainly on the home side in this match-up as another key factor is that Brighton had a lot of extra matches to make up here at the end of the season. That is why, since May 13th Brighton has played 4 matches while Aston Villa has played just 2 matches. Fresher legs, motivation, the strength of the squad that will put on the pitch, all of this favors the host in this match-up and we get a nice line on this one as well. That's because Brighton has been strong this season and will not just lay down here but, again, the rest edge and motivational edge plus home pitch edge are all going to combine for a big win for the hosts in this one the way I see it. They have won the last 3 meetings by a combined score of 6 to 1. ASTON VILLA +105

Rotation #200009: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Brentford vs Manchester City @ 11:30 AM ET - Brentford still needs to win as they are in the running for a spot for European Football as they can finish in the top eight. Manchester City already won the premier league title for the season but they rested some players Wednesday that could be back here. Also, they might have some extra motivation from the fact their only home loss this season was to Brentford. So even though the Bees should be pushing hard and enjoy some scoring success here, don't be surprised if City answers them goal for goal in a match I am expecting to get to a 2-2 type final. Certainly we should see at least 3 goals here. City averaged 2 goals scored per road match this season and Brentford averaged scoring 2 goals per match at home this season. Brentford also in solid current form with wins in 4 of last 5 matches and they averaged scoring 2 goals in those 4 victories. City has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 or 3 in Brentford

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3

NHL Saturday Dallas Stars Money Line +130 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - The whole world is lining up on Vegas to close this series out at home. The line has moved the direction of the Golden Knights but I feel this is giving us truly exceptional value on the Stars as a sizable underdog here. Note that Vegas has only 1 regulation win in last 4 home games in this post-season. The other 3 games included a 5-1 loss and a pair of OT losses against these Stars. The only regulation win for the Golden Knights in this stretch of 4 home games was just a 4-3 win over the Oilers. Give Vegas credit for gutting out tight wins but I feel we could see a major series shift in momentum here after the Stars finally got a tight home win in the most recent game. That was an OT win and the key was Dallas finally seemed to figure out how to get inside a bit more on the Golden Knights and create more higher-percentage scoring opportunities. The Stars will continue to build off the things they did well in Game 4 and remember, the Knights have been far from dominant on home ice. DALLAS +130

MLB Saturday OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - A pair of starting pitchers that have both been out for awhile. A pair of lineups that have been among the better hitting clubs in the league this season. A hitter-friendly ballpark. A mediocre bullpen and a sub-par bullpen. All these variables point toward an over here. Zach Davies has not been the same pitchers since the 2020 season and has gone 8-17 since then and struggled in his only home start this season. Garrett Whitlock is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he was getting hit at a .300 clip at the AAA minor league level as well in his 3 starts there this season. The Diamondbacks lost 7-2 yesterday but scored an average of 5.3 runs in their dozen games prior to that one. Arizona has allowed 5.4 runs per game last 9 games. Boston has been running hot and cold with their offense going in streaks so don't be surprised if yesterday's 7-run outburst gets another streak of big run-scoring going. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

Rotation #206929: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2.5 in FCSB vs Rapid @ 1:30 ET - FCSB off the disappointment of the 3-2 loss at Farul. They also are dealing with key defensive absentees for this match. FSCB, however, certainly will still want to put up a big fight against their Bucuresti rivals in this one. That said, I am looking for plenty of scoring here as they will struggle to stop Rapid but FCSB should continue to score well and are the hosts in this city rivalry match Saturday. These teams essentially playing for pride in this one and that means we should see a wide-open match with a lot of open field on the pitch and a chance for some high-quality scoring opportunities. The last two meetings here have been 3-1 FCSB wins. 3 of the last 4 matches for FCSB have totaled at least 3 goals. 3 of the last 4 matches for Rapid have totaled at least 3 goals. They have not had a draw in any of their last 5 meetings and I also do not see either club being held off the scoreboard in this one either. That means the odds of a 1-1 final are small as neither club wants to share the spoils in this rivalry tonight and so look for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 in FCSB

Rotation #200201: English League Championship Saturday OVER 2 in Coventry City vs Luton Town @ 11:45 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, England - We saw some 2 and 1/4 on this match and it came down to 2 which makes sense as it is a huge match with the winner going to the Premier League. It is such a massive match. However, the key with the value here is this total dropped to a 2 and this is not a normal English Championship Final to determine who gets promoted. I say it is not normal because, in their over 100 year history, Luton has never been in the Premier League. The fan in me is pulling for Luton here but this job is not about being a fan, it is about picking winners where the value is. The reality is I could see this match going either way in terms of the side but the value is on the over in my opinion. That's because, like I said above, this one is different. These clubs both so hungry for their chance and especially Luton. Coventry City will want to play their typical slow defensive style but I think Luton wants this one too much and will force the issue in terms of the tempo we will end up seeing. Just remember too that the low total means we only need 1 goal from each club and we can not lose. I am certainly looking for at least a 1-1 final here and see a 2-1 being the end result here. The last 5 meetings between these clubs have seen 4 total at least 2 goals and these 5 have averaged 2.8 goals apiece. Note that Coventry City has scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 8 matches and scored an average of 1.5 goals during this stretch. Luton Town has also scored at least 1 goal in 7 of last 8 matches and scored an average of 1.5 goals per match. OVER 2 in Coventry City

MLB Friday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - There is a reason, of course, this total opened up at an 8 in some spots but is on the move to an 8.5 across the board today on Friday. The fact is we should see plenty of runs here and traditionally I have had good success with situations just like this one. That situation is the fact these two lineups just faced these pitchers and oftentimes that favors the hitters in the very next meeting. Adding to the value is the fact this game is in Oakland. That helps us because Hunter Brown has certainly not been the same pitcher away from Houston over the past month or so. Brown has been roughed up in 3 of 4 road starts and allowed 23 hits in less than 15 innings of work spanning those 3 starts. Don't be surprised if the A's fare much better against him here than they did in Houston last weekend. As for Kaprielian, he had only one 1-2-3 inning in his 5 innings versus the Astros last weekend and he was fortunate to limit the damage. Also, in 2 of his 3 home starts this season he has been roughed up. Kaprielian is likely to struggle with the world champs getting a quick second look at him. Also, the Oakland bullpen has a 6.56 ERA and that is dead last in the majors this season. The A's have blown 10 of 14 save opportunities. The Astros are off B2B shutout losses but this was after scoring an average of 6 runs per game in an 8-game winning streak. Oakland has averaged 4 runs scored in last 6 home games but is allowing 7 runs per game this season! OVER 8.5 in Oakland 

MLB Friday OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Jordan Lyles is 0-8 with a 7.15 ERA this season. The Nationals Patrick Corbin is pitching better of late but still giving up a lot of hits and so he has been fortunate. He is getting hit at a .291 clip this season but escaping jams recently to preserve a decent ERA for the month of May. Keep in mind this is still a guy who entered this season 17-42 the past 3 seasons combined and he is getting hit at about a .300 clip the last 3+ seasons. These two bullpens are also ranked near the bottom of MLB for team ERA so far this season. 7 of last 11 Nats games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Royals have seen 14 of 20 home games total at least 9 runs and have been scoring better at home with an average of 6 runs scored in last 13 games at home. OVER 9 in Kansas City

Rotation #206781: Portugal Primeira Liga Friday OVER 2.5 in Rio Ave vs Famalicao @ 2 ET - With neither club playing with pressure I look for a rather wide open affair. While it is true that neither club scores a lot of goals the situation here is a unique one and I also like the fact we are seeing this total tick up some. In other words, we are not the only ones liking the over in this match-up. The fact is Rio Ave has only 2 draws in 16 matches as a host this season and have played well at home. Famalicao has only 4 draws in 33 matches this season so you can see the odds of a draw here our slim. Why does that matter? Because the odds of a clean sheet are also slim and that means a 1-1 match should find its way to at least 2-1. Note that Rio Ave has delivered just one clean sheet last 8 matches and allowed an average of 2 goals in the other 7 matches. Note that 8 of last 9 Famalicao matches have totaled at least 3 goals. In fact, those 8 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and we only need 3 to be a winner here. I am banking on it! OVER 2.5 in Rio Ave

Rotation #206801: Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2.5 +128 in U Craiova 1948 vs FC Voluntari @ 1 ET - This battle relates to the battle for European Football spots and the winner of this match will take on either CFR Cluj or Universitatea Craiova next weekend. This should be a great battle Friday as FC Voluntari was the highest scoring club in the playout stages and averaged 2 goals per match. However, FC Voluntari also allowed at least 2 goals in each of last 3 road matches. That included a 3-3 draw here at U Craiova 1948 last month and that match could have had even more scoring as there were other great saves and a couple of shots off the bar too so the high score was certainly no fluke. Look for at least a 2-1 final here as  U Craiova 1948 has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 9 matches as a host. Given all of the above, it would not surprise me to see each club again get to the 2-goal mark in this one and so expecting at least 3 goals is not a big ask considering how aggressive both these clubs have been on the attack. I do not see that changing here as this style is what led to their success in the play-out stages. OVER 2.5 +128 in U Craiova 1948

NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5

NHL Thursday Dallas Stars Money Line -110 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - Dallas just suffered their first regulation time loss of this series. The Stars lost the first two games in overtime. Dallas easily could have been up 2-0 in series but now, after Tuesday's debacle, they are down 3-0 in this series. Note that the Stars are 6-0 since mid-March (including 3-0 in this post-season) when they are off a loss in regulation time. I am sure that Dallas is going to respond big here. Vegas took it to them early in Game 3 but you will see a very determined Stars bunch destined for payback in Game 4. They are on home ice and fired up and hungry to send this series back to Vegas. Their effort will be off the charts and the fact is not much has separated these two teams in this series. That said, the team that wants it more has the upper hand and the Stars are not going to be denied here at home. Look for the hosts to improve to 7-0 the last 7 times when off a NON-OT loss. DALLAS -110

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - The Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola and his velocity has ticked up and he has been again looking like vintage Nola of late. He gives the Phillies a big edge over the Braves and a struggling Dylan Dodd. Note that the Braves southpaw was struggling in the minors this season too before the rookie got called up to the big club. Nola has allowed only 34 hits in 47 innings over his last 7 starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout performance in his last start. Dodd, on the other hand, is getting hit at a .364 clip. Even if there is a pitching change, which I am sure would not involve both pitchers, I still like this play. It is a fade Dodd, on Nola combo but also the rivalry situation here and the fact the Phillies have underachieved so far this season but are absolutely good enough to challenge the Braves. So we get some line value here. PHILADELPHIA -110

Rotation #200129: English Premier League Thursday 10* OVER 2.5 -145 in Manchester United vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - This total opened up at a 3 and has started dropping to a 2.5 and I like to fade line moves like this. Yes both clubs are off 1-0 finals last week but Manchester United has scored an average of 2 goals per match at home this season. As for Chelsea, they faced a Manchester City club that was celebrating their league championship before the match even started and simply wanted to lull everyone to sleep with one of the most boring 1-0 matches you will have ever seen. All that aside from last week, look for a much different match this time around. Manchester United still needs 1 more point in the table to lock in a top four finish. Chelsea has nothing to lose and so they can go aggressive here too in terms of trying to glean something positive as they near the finish line Sunday of what has been an abysmal campaign by Chelsea standards. Manchester United has seen their overall scoring in matches down as of late but a lot of this has been because of a dearth of home matches. Look for them to make the most of their home pitch and earn the final points in table that they need by delivering a strong effort here. This series has a recent history of unders but the odds makers had settle an opening total of a 3 for a reason. They are seeing the same things I am with regard to the situation here and, with nothing to lose, I look for Chelsea to bring a more wide open style here as they battle through injuries. Chelsea had scored an average of 2 goals per match and seen each of last 3 matches total 4 goals apiece before that lousy match with Man City. OVER 2.5 -145 in Manchester United

Rotation #201865: Spanish La Liga Thursday OVER 1.5 -160 in Mallorca vs Valencia @ 1:30 ET - I am well aware of the defensive strength that each of these clubs possess but, given the situation, this total is a bargain to get over 1.5 in the -160 price range. Mallorca is particularly tough at home but Valencia has been rolling and is in strong current form. Also, Mallorca has scored an average of 1 goal per match at home and I also don't see Valencia slowing down as their surge continues and they want to make it official that they will avoid relegation. Their position has improved but they are not 100% safe just yet. That said, note that 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 2 goals. 3 of the last 4 totaled at least 3 goals and those 3 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Mallorca has seen 6 of last 8 matches total at least 2 goals and actually 5 of those 6 totaled at least 3 goals. Valencia is off a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid but this followed 9 straight matches totaling at least 2 goals. In fact, those 9 matches averaged 2.6 goals apiece! OVER 1.5 -160 in Mallorca

MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - Alcantara is having a rough season for the Marlins as he is 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA this season. While he has pitched better of late, he still has not quite been himself and a trip to Coors Field is unlikely to help him. One of the worst starts of his career happened in his most recent start here and, again, he has not been as sharp as usual this season. This is not the time nor the place to turn things around. Also, the Rockies are sending Karl Kauffmann to the mound and he struggled in his MLB debut but this should not be a complete shock as his minor league numbers have been ugly. Basically, he is getting this chance because that is how pitching-thin the Rockies are. On that note, I like this paly regardless of who the starting pitchers are. The Marlins have 11 hits in each of the first two games but have gone a crazy 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position which has definitely led to a ton of wasted opportunities. I look for the Rockies to continue scoring well at home while Miami finally gets going too and actually gets some clutch hits in this one. The weather, other than some showers possibly dancing around the area, is also ideal for a hitter-friendly evening at a hitter-friendly venue. OVER 10.5 in Colorado

NHL Wednesday Carolina Hurricanes Money Line +100 @ Florida Panthers @ 8:05 ET - The Hurricanes outhshot Florida 32 to 17 in the Game 3 loss. This after losing each of the first two games in OT. The Panthers got 4 power play opportunities and the Hurricanes got just 1. To say the Canes are a little bit frustrated and angry right now is the understatement of the year. The Hurricanes will respond here as Carolina is very well-coached and has veteran experience and they will be fully focused on the "game at a time" mentality in a series that has been tight but that they have been just short in all 3 games. They feel the calls were unfair in the Game 3 loss but they will use that frustration to turn it into positive energy for this one. The Hurricanes will not be denied here. They have come to far and are too good a team to get swept out of the playoffs. Just like you might have seen Boston come up big at Miami last night in the NBA - similar situation of Celtics having statistical edges in shots the game before but losing - I think in the hockey we are going to see another team avoid the sweep and send this series back north for a game in Raleigh. CAROLINA +100

Rotation #201601: Coppa Italia Wednesday OVER 2.5 +110 in Fiorentina vs Inter Milan @ 3 ET - Both clubs are in strong current form. The key here is that I look for Inter Milan to dictate that this match will be played with more attacking. The last time these clubs met Fiorentina got a 1-0 win but the prior match Inter Milan won 4-3. They know what works against this club and that is to be aggressive and on the attack and they have the firepower to do that. Prior to the 1-0 match, 2 of the 3 meetings before that totaled at least 4 goals and those 2 matches averaged 5.5 goals apiece. Inter Milan has scored an average of 2.6 goals per match in their last 10 across all competitions. Fiorentina has scored 2 goals per match in their last 25 matches across all competitions. We'll see goals here. Yes it is a battle for the Coppa Italia as it is the final but Inter Milan knows what will work and they do not want to get lulled into another 1-0 loss against Fiorentina. Both clubs have high likelihood of scoring and low odds on a draw. So that sets this up to be a 2-1 final at a minimum and so we take advantage of the low total here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Fiorentina 

Rotation #200125: English Premier League Wednesday OVER 3 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - Brighton wants to get at least one point in their last two matches to insure they secure a top 6 finish. Manchester City already has won the league title. However, both of these clubs of course play this weekend as well as this is their penultimate match. That said, Manchester City does have a couple of finals on deck and they rested key players in last week's snoozefest with Chelsea that was a 1-0 final and was one of the most boring matches you could watch in your life. After that ugly effort Manchester City put on in front of their home fans did at least result in a 1-0 win thanks to punch-less Chelsea who was an embarrassment in that match, I look for a much better effort here. The starters will be back out there and there is no real pressure on either club and Brighton certainly knows a thing or two about scoring big. Brighton is averaging 2 goals per match this season and Manchester City is the highest scoring club in the league with 93 goals in 36 matches. City has to keep their guys game ready with the finals coming up and I am sure they would rather play them here than on Sunday. That said, the big guns will be out for this game and Brighton has seen last 4 matches all total at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 4.5 goals. City, before the snoozefest with Chelsea, had seen 13 of last 15 matches total at least 3 goals. Those 15 matches averaged 4 goals apiece and I look for this one to get there as well. OVER 3 in Manchester City

NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2

NHL Tuesday Dallas Stars Money Line -140 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:05 ET - This is the first time in these playoffs that Dallas has lost B2B games. In the regular season the Stars had only 2 losing streaks of more than 2 games. When Dallas entered a game off exactly 2 straight losses they won that 3rd game 7 out of 9 times. The Stars never trailed in Game 2 and only trailed for a combined total of about 12 minutes in Game 1. They gave up a tying goal in Game 2 with about 2 minutes to go. Both games went to OT and the Stars lost both. After the way these games played out and everything that has transpired in this series. I just can not see them losing here in Game 3 on home ice. The home team is on a 5-0 run in Stars games. Look for that streak to reach 6-0 here with another home ice win. DALLAS -140

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -150 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies Matt Strahm flies under the radar more than Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler but this guy can pitch! The Philadelphia southpaw has a 2.73 ERA and is holding hitters to a .188 BAA and this is after he had a 3.83 ERA and a .224 batting average against during his solid season with Boston last year. He should enjoy success here at home against Arizona. The Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson to the mound for this one and he has a 5.48 ERA and a .296 BAA in his 9 starts this season. He is coming off a strong start but that was at Oakland and the Athletics are the worst team in the majors this season. Prior to that he was allowing an average of 1 earned run per INNING over his last FIVE starts. So Nelson has consistently been struggling. No matter who pitches in this match-up, the Diamondbacks are on a 3-game winning streak and are 1-5 the last 6 times when they have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games! The Phillies are off a 6-3 loss to Dbacks to open up this series but they had won 10 of 14 home games heading into this series and I look for them to bounce right back. PHILADELPHIA -150

Rotation #201885: Spanish La Liga Tuesday OVER 3 in Real Valladolid vs Barcelona @ 4 ET - Real Valladolid is fighting to avoid relegation and will put up a fight here. Barcelona already won the Championship for La Liga for the season but they are off a 2-1 loss and don't want to finish out the season with a whimper and there are still two more matches to go after this. That said, Barcelona will respond here off a loss the way I see it and they should score well to keep pressure on the hosts but I am sure Real Valladolid will put up a fight. The hosts are off a 2-0 loss but 11 of 13 matches prior to that totaled at least 3 goals and those 11 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! As for Barcelona, they averaged scoring 2 goals per match on the road this season and were the top road club in the league. 4 of their last 5 matches overall have totaled at least 3 goals and they can play loose and relaxed since they already have won the title but, again, they will want to atone for that loss last week. OVER 3 in Real Valladolid

Rotation #201881: Spanish La Liga Tuesday Girona +0.5 goals -120 @ Celta de Vigo @ 1:30 ET - It is true that Girona has struggled on the road this season but they are in much better current form than Celta de Vigo. Also, Girona is currently #7 in the standings so they are still trying to lock up a spot for European Football which would be a major accomplishment for them. They also lost 1-0 to Celta de Vigo in the reverse fixture earlier this season. They also carry motivation here from that as well as entering this match off a loss after having played so well for an extended stretch. So all of this sets up well for value on the road club in that a victory or a draw (either way) puts us in the winners circle. That is key as Celta de Vigo has only 10 victories in 35 matches this season and Girona has only 13 losses in 35 matches this season! GIRONA +0.5 goals -120

NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5

MLB Monday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins @ 8:40 ET - The Rockies are expected to start Chase Anderson. I know the veteran hurler was surprisingly solid so far in his limited action but I just can not see that continuing. Also, the weather is favorable for an over tonight. Additionally, the Colorado bullpen has a high BAA and a rather high WHIP so they have been fortunate their ERA is not higher and even with all that they do rank in the lower third of team bullpens and I expect them to drop further as the season goes along. As for the Marlins, Edwin Cabrera is expected to start here and he has struggled badly on the road this season. A start at hitter-friendly Coors Field is certainly unlikely to help matters. Note that 4 of last 6 Rockies games have totaled at least 16 runs and that includes 3 games at Coors Field and 3 games at Texas. The Rockies have scored at least 9 runs in 2 of last 3 home games. The Marlins are 7-4 last 11 games and, other than a 1-0 win, scored an average of 4.5 runs in the other 10 games. Now at hitter friendly Coors Field you can safely add a couple runs to that average and look for Miami to get to the 6 or 7 mark tonight and the Rockies will likely equal them run for run as well. OVER 11.5 in Colorado 

NHL Monday Carolina Hurricanes -101 @ Florida Panthers @ 8:05 ET - The Panthers 7 of last 9 wins have come by just a single goal and 6 of the 7 have been OT wins including each of the first two games in this series. This is simply unreal as Florida also has NO losses in OT so far in post-season. Carolina, on the other hand, is 6-4 last 10 games and 3 of those 4 losses by just a single goal including the last 2 in OT versus Florida. 2 of their 6 wins were in OT but the average margin of their other 4 wins was 4 goals apiece! I feel we are getting excellent line value here with the Hurricanes in about as close to a must win spot as it gets and yet we are getting a pick'em line and we have the team that has won the shots on goal battle by 17 including an edge of 12 in Saturday's tough loss. Value on the road team in a great spot and they are so hungry and will not be denied off B2B losses. CAROLINA -101

Rotation #200121: English Premier League Monday OVER 3 -135 in Newcastle United vs Leicester @ 3 ET - Big total here but fully justified. Leicester still motivated to avoid relegation. Newcastle still motivated to secure a top 4 spot in the table. Newcastle has scored an average of 2 goals per match in home matches this season. Leicester has scored an average of 1.5 goals per match in road matches this season. The problem for the visitors is they can stop no one and, as for Newcastle, their defensive play has not been nearly as strong of late as it was earlier this season. Yes we need 4 goals to be a winner here but note that Newcastle should be able to attack at will here and they want to end the home portion of their schedule with a resounding win. 5 of Newcastle's last 6 matches have totaled at least 4 goals. Those 6 matches have averaged 4.5 goals apiece. As for Leicester, they are off a shutout loss versus Liverpool but had scored at least 1 goal in 9 of 10 matches heading into that one. Of course Newcastle is a heavy favorite for a reason here and, given all of the above, you can see why I am expecting at least a 3-1 final in this one! OVER 3 -135 in Newcastle United 

Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Monday OVER 2.5 in Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - It took awhile but it is finally feeling like spring here in Romania and the temperatures are going up and the goal-scoring is increasing right along with the temperatures. The season is finally winding down as the play-out stages wrapped up yesterday and the play-off stages have just one more week coming up. This is the final match of this weekend's battles and all matches saw at least 2 goals scored with most of the 7 matches thus far totaling at least 3 and that is what we should see at a minimum in this one as well. These clubs are batting for the #4 position and that is a key one and should certainly see both of them pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table here. That should mean at least a 2-1 final as note that Universitatea Craiova has both scored and conceded in 9 straight matches and, again, at this critical stage I just do not see either club being willing to settle for a draw here. So if each club scores in a Universitatea Craiova match for a 10th straight time also look for it NOT to end 1-1 and that means strong odds on an over here. I also like the fact that Rapid is off a scoreless draw as they will certainly be pushing hard now. 3 of their 4 matches prior to that had totaled at least 4 goals and I would not be surprised to see that again here. OVER 2.5 in Rapid

NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5

NHL Sunday Dallas Stars Money Line +110 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 3:05 ET - The Stars are 9-0 the last 9 times they were off a loss. This run dates back to the regular season of course but includes a 5-0 run in the playoffs. That said, there is exceptional line value here with Dallas in an underdog spot in Game 2 of the series. Yes Vegas is on home ice but they have been truly dominant here and they barely squeaked out the win in Game 1. Strengthened by their resolve, the Stars will be the hungrier team tonight and just can't see them leaving the arena without a win. They will be a little more physical in Game 2 and I know what this experienced playoff veteran team is capable of when they put their minds to it. Look for them to improve to 10-0 last 10 when off a loss. DALLAS +110

MLB Sunday OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - I am going to take advantage of the low total posted on this one. We get a lower total because Framber Valdez is the starter expected to go for Houston here. The Astros southpaw does have a low ERA this season but he actually has been better on the road than at home! He is 3-0 with a .179 batting average against in his road starts but he is 0-4 with a .279 BAA in home starts! The A's do hit decently against left-handed pitchers and they could surprise here. As for the Oakland pitching, they have struggled this season with yesterday's 3-2 loss being a rare aberration as they almost always give up a lot of runs. I expect Houston to pound the Athletics today as their bullpen ranks as the worst in the league plus the expected starter James Kaprielian is likely to struggle here. He is off a good start versus the Rangers but this was at home and was surprising to say the least. He had been moved to the bullpen plus Kaprielian had allowed at least 5 runs in each of his 3 starts this season before that surprising result versus Texas. Look for the other team from the Lone Star State to quickly return him to reality as the Astros roll big at the plate in this one. The A's are averaging allowing 7 runs per game this season and has scored an average of 4 runs per game in last 9 road games. OVER 8.5 in Houston

Rotation #206901: Romania Liga 1 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Farul vs FCSB @ 2 ET - This is a highly anticipated match that should feature plenty of scoring. Farul can win the league championship with a win here. However, FCSB certainly will have something to say about that and they have the firepower to get the job done on the for sure. However, it certainly is difficult to play against Farul when they are at home in Constanta. This is a great club, even when missing a few players, that is very tough to beat at home. The value here, in my opinion, is with the total. Each of the last 4 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 averaged 4 goals apiece. Farul is off a 1-1 draw on the road but this followed a 7-2 home victory! FCSB is off a 1-0 win over CFR Cluj but this was preceded by their last 3 wins (in 4 prior matches) having seen them score an average of 2.3 goals apiece. With a win here they control their own destiny and have a shot at the championship. A draw does not really help them. That said, and considering the fact it is highly unlikely either team delivers a clean sheet here, I am expecting at least a 2-1 final in what should be a fantastic battle in this match-up of elite clubs. 10* OVER 2.5 in Farul

Rotation #200117 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Manchester City vs Chelsea @ 11 AM ET - Both clubs can play loose and relaxed here. Manchester City won the title by virtue of Arsenal's pathetic performance yesterday at Nottingham Forest. This secured the title for Man City and they will hoist the trophy at the conclusion of this match Sunday. That said, one might view this as a meaningless match since they already clinched the title and since Chelsea has had a disappointing campaign languishing now in the middle of the table. However, rest assured we will see good effort from both clubs here. Chelsea has been scoring better (finally) since the manager change had more time to have an impact. Also, you know they would love to spring the upset here and put a damper on the Man City celebrations. At the same time, City does not want this day to be somewhat blemished by losing to the Blues. I expect a strong effort and plenty of push from both clubs and each club will have some other players rotating in and everyone involved here will want to put their mark on this heavyweight match. Look for the end result to be solid scoring here as Manchester City has averaged scoring 3 goals per match as a host this season. Chelsea has scored an average of 2 goals in their 3 matches this month and each one of those matches reached the 4-goal mark and this one should too. 10* OVER 3 in Manchester City

Rotation #200113: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove vs Southampton @ 9 AM ET - Since Southampton has had their relegation confirmed this should be a wide open affair. The Saints have allowed 2.5 goals per match last 10 matches and they will be on the attack here as they certainly have nothing to lose. At the same time, Brighton is looking to rebound off a disappointing heavy loss to Newcastle. They did not even generate much in that game either so they will look to be aggressive on the attack as they look to remain in contention for a Europa League action by finishing in the top six in the table. Brighton is on their way but needs to bounce back on their home pitch with a huge win. I fully expect them to do just that as the attacking nature Southampton will likely bring here is only can further open things up on the counterattack and Brighton should score at will in this one. There is a reason this match has a total of 3.5 goals as the posted number. Don't let the big number scare you. This one should be a wide-open affair and the host club will not take their foot off the gas in this one as they are angry off the Newcastle loss. That means plenty of scoring here. OVER 3.5 in Brighton & Hove

Rotation #200109 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in West Ham United vs Leeds United @ 8:30 AM ET - West Ham off that huge win over AZ Alkmaar in Europa Conference League action Thursday. That could leave them a bit flat here but yet they are at home and should score just fine here. This is particularly true as they take on a Leeds side with a knack for conceding plenty of goals. What I have seen from Leeds too however is that they are attacking much better under Allardyce and I expect at least 3 goals here as a result. 10 of last 11 Leeds matches have totaled at least 3 goals and all signs point to this one reaching at least that number as well. OVER 2.5 -130 in West Ham

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6

NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line -150 vs Florida Panthers @ 8:05 ET - Carolina had won 5 of 6 home games in this post-season before the tough 4-OT loss to the Panthers in Game 1 of this series. Note that the Hurricanes are 3-0 in the playoffs so far when coming off a loss and I look for them to respond once again in this situation. Also, Florida has played 13 post-season games so far and only 4 of the 13 have been regulation wins. Give the Panthers credit but they also have had amazingly good fortune. 5 of their 9 post-season wins have been in OT. Florida is 5-0 in OT games in the post-season and I look for the Hurricanes to bounce back strong. In the 3rd period of the Game 1 loss the Canes really looked like the Canes of old. They now have Terravainen back too and that helps as well. The point is they were starting to get into rhythm and looked strong and I feel we'll see that kind of effort and performance from the Hurricanes from the drop of the puck in this one. 10* CAROLINA -150

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:15 ET - Baseball can be a funny sport. Cardinals scored 16 in winning the first game of this series Thursday and then proceeded to get shutout and manage only 2 hits in yesterday's game! The Dodgers did score 5 runs in that one after scoring 8 in the series opener. I like this one with action on pitchers but I will start there with mentioning that Mikolas has struggled badly in his home starts this season and Syndergaard has been roughed up on the road this season. That sets this one up well as both have not looked like the same pitchers that they used to be. This has been particularly true in terms of Mikolas at home and Syndergaard on the road this season. That said, I like the value here with this total available at a 9. St Louis, prior to being shutout yesterday, had won 9 of 11 games and scored an average of 7.7 runs per game during this stretch! The Dodgers have gone 16-4 since starting the season 13-13. LA has averaged 5.9 runs per game during this stretch. Look for a 6-5 type game in this one given all of the above plus the fact the Los Angeles bullpen has struggled this season and has a higher ERA than usual. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis

Rotation #206917: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - Sepsi can play loose and relaxed here and they are on their home pitch. For visiting CFR Cluj, this match means much more in the playoff table. That said, a lot of value with the over in this one. CFR Cluj will be pushing hard to get the full 3 points in the table but Sepsi beat them 3-0 in the Romaniei Cup semi-finals and each of their other 3 meetings this season have totaled at least 3 goals. That means 4 straight meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and all sings point to a similar result here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi

Rotation #200105: English Premier League Saturday OVER 2.5 or 3 in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Nottingham Forest is not safe from the drop zone yet so you know they will go strong here on their home pitch. They have already been pushing hard for some time now and the result has been plenty of goals and that is what I am looking for again here as well. Each of their last 5 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and the matches have averaged 4.6 goals. Arsenal knows their title hopes are slim as Manchester City has overtaken them at the top. At the same time however, they will want to respond off a disappointing 3-0 home loss to Brighton & Hove last week. I am sure Arsenal is going to bring a strong effort on the road here and, keep in mind, Nottingham Forest is known for defensive deficiencies. Arsenal is not mathematically eliminated from the top spot yet either so there are multiple reasons to expect them to push hard here and I look for them to be great on the attack. They will want to put on a clinic and get back to winning ways and show everyone what they can do after losing 3-0 to Brighton. Arsenal had averaged scoring 3 goals per match last 13 EPL matches before that ugly effort. 13 of last 15 Arsenal matches have totaled at least 3 goals and this one should as well. OVER 2.5 or 3 in Nottingham Forest

Rotation #200089: English Premier League Monday OVER 3 in Bournemouth vs Manchester United @ 10 AM ET - The threat of relegation is off for Bournemouth so they will play this match with less pressure on them and they are a host. That said, don't be surprised if they score at least 1 goal here as they are loose and relaxed. All the pressure is on Manchester United as they are still going for a top 4 finish and need these points. They are the better club in this match-up and will be focused on the task at hand and the result should be plenty of scoring. Manchester United has scored at least 3 goals in each of last two meetings (and 3 of last 4) with Bournemouth. Though Man U has not been scoring as much of late entering this match, this is the perfect spot for them to break out against a leaky backline. At the same time, note that the relaxed hosts in this match are off a 2-0 loss but had average scoring 2 goals in 3 matches before that and 4 of 5 matches before the 2-0 defeat had all totaled 4 or more goals. Look for more of the same with a 3-1 type final likely in my estimation. OVER 3 in Bournemouth

NHL Friday Dallas Stars +115 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:35 ET - The Golden Knights allowed 4 goals per game in their 3 home games in the series with Edmonton. Dallas is 7-3 last 10 games and struggled a bit in the losses but allowed a total of only 10 goals in those 7 victories. That is some solid defense and goaltending. More of the same expected here as they look to get the early edge in this series. A lot of times the pressure is on the home team in Game 1 when you are getting this late into the post-season. The Golden Knights fortress this season was not it once was in prior seasons. The Stars just want to come in and steal one of these first two games on the road. Look for them to do just that right away in the first game as the road team has won the first game in 3 of the 4 series combined for these two teams so far in this post-season. That trend continues here. DALLAS +115

NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -120 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 11-7 at home this season while the Cubs are 8-13 on the road this season. Ranger Suarez expected to get the start for the Phillies here and his first one of the season (after being on the injured list) did not go so well but that was at hitter friendly Coors Field in Denver. Note his minor league starts in rehab had been strong and he is coming off a solid season. That said, Suarez will be just fine here back at home and making his 2nd start since returning from injury. As for Marcus Stroman, the right-hander has been roughed up a few times in his last five starts and is facing a tough lineup in a tough venue here. The Phillies also have a lot of familiarity with him from his days with the Mets. Now the Cubs righty in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Phillies bounce back from a tough road trip. Chicago is 3-7 against NL East teams so far this season and the Phillies are 8-3 last 11 home games. PHILADELPHIA -120

Rotation #202453: German Bundesliga Friday OVER 2.5 in Freiburg vs Wolfsburg @ 2:30 ET - Freiburg is trying to shake off a disappointing stretch and I expect them to respond well here on their home pitch. However, Wolfsburg desperately needs points in the table as they look to secure a top 6 spot and I look for the visitors to be at their best here as well. The result should be at least a 2-1 final as Freiburg has only a 25% draw rate at home and Wolfsburg has only a 19% draw rate on the road this season. That said, looking for each team to score at least once and the likelihood of a draw is slim. 4 of last 6 Freiburg matches have totaled at least 3 goals and 3 of those 4 totaled at least 4 goals. Wolfsburg has seen each of last 4 matches total at least 3 goals and those averaged 4.5 goals apiece. 3 of last 4 meetings between these teams totaled at least 3 goals and their last two matches have totaled a combined 11 goals. We are going to see some big scoring here. OVER 2.5 in Freiburg

Rotation #206898: Romania Liga 1 Friday Chindia Targoviste +110 vs FC Voluntari @ 1 ET - This is the inaugural match in the finally-completed Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Targoviste. Not only will that have extra motivation for the club here, they also need a victory to insure they will not be surpassed by FC Arges and subject to direct relegation to Liga 2. That said, I am expecting a huge effort from the home club and they should have a strong fan base supporting them in their new home. The other big key to this selection is there is a lack of motivation for FC Voluntari. The visitors in this match have already accomplished what they needed to in the play-out stage and they could absolutely be quite flat for this match. That is why you are seeing this line priced this way even though FC Voluntari is the only club out of 16 in the play-off and play-out stages that has yet to lose a match. It has been 4 wins and 4 draws for them so far but they close this out with a road loss here as the situation strongly favors the hosts. CHINDIA +110

Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1 Friday OVER 2 -135 in FC Arges vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 1 ET - FC Arges is desperate for a win in hopes of avoiding relegation. However, they will struggle to stop the opposition in this one too as Petrolul Ploiesti will be ready to go after a 1-0 loss to Hermannstadt. Prior to that defeat, 4 of their last 5 matches had totaled at least 2 goals and there is great value on this one with the total available at 2 goals. Those 4 matches averaged 3 goals and I am looking for more of the same here. FC Arges has seen each of last 4 matches total at least 2 goals and those matches averaged 3 goals apeice. That said, and given the hunger here for 3 points in the table, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this one. The set-up is perfect with both clubs off disappointing losses and willing to push on the attack in this match. OVER 2 -135 in FC Arges

NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5

NHL Thursday Carolina Hurricanes -135 vs Florida Panthers @ 8:05 ET - The only team to win more home games (28) in the regular season than Carolina did was Boston. Coming off a historic regular season, the Bruins ranked first in just about everything so the point is that the Hurricanes are keeping pretty good company with a record like that! As for the Panthers they lost 22 of 41 regular season road games. Give Florida credit for sure as any team to make it this far in the post-season is doing something right to say the least! However, I feel we have excellent line value here with a low money line on a high quality Hurricanes team on their home ice. Yes they have been without Terraveinen (could be back for this one!) and Svechnikov but the team has rallied around this and continues to play very well. The Panthers just beat a Maple Leafs team that won their first playoff series since 2004 when they finally got out of the first round. To me, the Hurricanes faced a much tougher 2nd round draw with facing a Devils team that had just knocked off a very tough Rangers team. So, all in all, I think the Hurricanes are undervalued here while everyone keeps pointing to Florida having knocked off the big bad Bruins. What happened with Boston was they put all their efforts into a historic regular season which then does not count once you reach the post-season. Again, give Florida credit but now thing are at the tightening up level of the post-season and the Hurricanes are the better team defensively and, long-term, in goal as well. CAROLINA -135

Rotation #235609: Europa Conference League Thursday OVER 2.5 in AZ Alkmaar vs West Ham United @ 3 ET - West Ham won the first meeting 2-1 which puts the the pressure on AZ Alkmaar here. A high-scoring club and on their home pitch, I expect AZ Alkmaar to respond but they will struggle to stop a West Ham club that has been playing so well in its non-league matches. The result will be plenty of scoring here because the hosts can not afford to sit back as they are down a goal and heading into the final of two matches that will be aggregated. At the same time, they have had some issues stopping opposition and I would not be surprised to see a 2-2 match here but certainly we should see at least a 2-1 final in this one given all the variables heading into this one. Both clubs have been so strong in Europa Conference League action and it has been goal-scoring that has led the way. Both clubs with strong attacks. OVER 2.5 in AZ Alkmaar

Rotation #200081: English Premier League Thursday OVER 3 in Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove @ 2:30 ET - A lot of goals here. 9 of last 11 Newcastle matches have totaled 3 or more goals. They continue to score well but their defensive play has not been what it once was earlier this season. 9 of last 12 Brighton matches in Premier League action have totaled at least 3 goals. They have scored an average of 2.3 goals in those 12 matches and are one of the highest scoring teams in the league in road matches this season. Newcastle is averaging about 2 goals per match on the season. A 2-2 final would not surprise me in the least here but we should see at least a 2-1 finish. Goals have been plentiful for both clubs and each of them are motivated here too. That's because Newcastle still trying to lock up a top four finish and Brighton a top six finish. That said, you are sure to see a strong effort from both clubs and a result that is a complete opposite of the scoreless draw these clubs had in the reverse fixture which was way back in August. OVER 3 in Newcastle

NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5

MLB Wednesday OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds @ 3:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a surprising 3-1 final at Coors Field. Of course this is an aberration. Look for things to return to normal Coors Field standards today. Ashcraft was horrible on the road last season. Gomber coming off some good starts of late but that is keeping this total lower than it should be. Yesterday's was 12.5 and this one is 11.5 and I see value here. Gomber has had plenty of struggles in this park. The weather - other than possible showers - actually looks ideal here with warm temperatures and favorable winds. I feel conditions will be ripe for an over here and like the added value after yesterday's unusual result here. Rockies known for hitting well here and Reds had been scoring quite well before yesterday's low-scoring grinder. OVER 11.5 in Colorado

Rotation #224209: Champions League Wednesday OVER 3 in Manchester City vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - The first match-up was a 1-1 battle but we'll see a lot more scoring in this one. City has the weapons and is a different club when they are at home. At the same time, Real Madrid is a tough match-up for them and can compete here. This will result in a high-scoring battle. Manchester City has scored an average of 3.3 goals per match as a host this season in their league action. This is a Champions League battle of course but it is at Manchester City and they will be rolling with confidence at home. Real Madrid has given this club a lot of trouble though as, prior to the 1-1 draw earlier this month they scored 3 goals in EACH of last two meetings with City. More of the same here. OVER 3 in Manchester City

Rotation #200214: English League Championship Wednesday Middlesbrough -120 vs Coventry City @ 3 ET - Middlesbrough only lost 3 of 23 home matches this season while Coventry City only won 7 of 23 road matches this season. Yes, a draw burns us here but the fact this one finished in a draw in the match at Coventry City means both clubs pushing hard for the result here without this one having to be decided after extra time. This favors Middlesbrough on their home pitch the way I see it. They had a +27 goal differential at home in the regular season while Coventry was only +6 on the road. The last two meetings have been draws but the 3 prior ones were all victories for the host in each meeting. The road team has not won any of the past 5 meetings. The hosts held a 60%-40% possession edge in the meeting Sunday and also had did have 2 shots on target while Coventry had 0 shots on target. The hosts prove to be too much here. MIDDLESBROUGH -120

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 11-6 last 17 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday followed by a 5-2 win yesterday. That Monday win saw the Dbacks leave 10 men on base and the teams combined to go just 2 of 11 with runners in scoring position. I know the A's sometime struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers here because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. By the way, the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA has them ranked among the worst bullpens in baseball. The starters expected for this one are both southpaws and both the Athletics and the Diamondbacks are in the top 12 out of 30 teams in the league for batting average versus southpaws. Arizona's Tommy Henry is 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in his career. Oakland's Kyle Muller is 4-8 with a 6.10 ERA in his career. Opponents are hitting .340 against Muller this season. As for Henry, he has struggled in 4 of the 6 road starts he has made in his career and his strikeout numbers are really down this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6

Rotation #224213: Champions League Tuesday OVER 2.5 +115 in Inter Milan vs AC Milan @ 3 ET - Having lost the first fixture 2-0, AC Milan is desperate for scoring here. They have had their struggles against Inter Milan in recent meetings but it is absolutely now or never here. Even dealing with some injury issues, AC Milan is still going to come out flying and will have to be aggressive on the attack because of facing the 2-goal deficit. That said, I look for a lot of scoring here as AC Milan is going to bring their best effort in that regard but Inter Milan won't hesitate to also pile up more scoring against a rival as they can kick them when they are down. Inter Milan has scored 3 goals per match last 8 matches. AC Milan has struggled recently but if there is one match to dig really deep and answer the bell, this is it and that is absolutely what I am forecasting here. The result will be the type of match that ends with at least 3 goals the way I see it. OVER 2.5 +115 in Inter Milan 

Rotation #200209: English League Championship Tuesday OVER 2.5 +115 in Luton Town vs Sunderland @ 3 ET - Surprisingly Sunderland took the first match 2-1 and the pressure is now on Luton Town on their home pitch. I look for them to respond big. Sunderland is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league in road matches this season and now in this key battle in the promotion semifinals I do not expect them to just sit back here. Sunderland must realize that a strong team like Luton Town is not going to be shutdown on their home pitch. That said, Sunderland needs to keep the pressure on and not just sit back. Note that each club has both scored and conceded in each of the last 5 meetings. I feel we again have strong odds on that happening here. Then the next key is that Luton Town simply can not afford to settle for a 1-1 draw. They will bring everything here in fighting to stay alive for promotion. Luton Town's most recent home match was a surprising scoreless draw with Hull City but, prior to this, they had gone 5-0-1 in last 6 matches on their home pitch and they averaged scoring 2 goals per match in those. More of the same expected here and I would not be surprised to see a very aggressive game from the hosts pay dividends in scoring but also open things up for a Sunderland club that has proven dangerous on the counterattack. OVER 2.5 +115 in Luton Town

MLB Monday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks are hot and can score plenty of runs. Arizona is 10-6 last 16 and their last 14 games had featured 10 of 14 totaling at least 9 runs before their 2-1 win in their series finale with San Francisco Sunday. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said Rucinski was expected to start yesterday but did not and the A's still allowed 11 runs. He is expected to go tonight so I mention him again below. As for Arizona's Kelly, he is a solid hurler for sure but he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his only career start at Oakland. Also, he has a low ERA on the road this season but actually has a higher batting average against on the road than at home this season. Throughout his career, Kelly has a higher ERA in road outings and I look for the Athletics to score some runs here. As for A's hurler Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Diamondbacks lineup should steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

NHL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 8:10 ET - If you like Dallas to win this game - and as -200 favorite they certainly are expected to win - the key here is where the value is in this scenario. There is still inherent risk in laying big prices with money lines. I laid -180 yesterday with Edmonton and despite the Oilers notching 40 shots on goal - nearly twice as many as Vegas - they still lost the game. That said, I really do like the Stars a lot here on home ice and there is justification for grabbing the puck line here. Again, the odds makers are telling you that if these teams played 3 straight times at Dallas repeatedly the Stars should average taking 2 out of 3 games - that is what that -200 price is telling you. The key here is we can get a lot of value with the Stars in the +125 range by laying 1.5 goals on the puck line. What are the odds that a Dallas win here comes by at least a 2-goal margin? The odds are actually very good! Dating back to the regular season 13 of last 17 Dallas home wins have come by at least a 2-goal margin and that includes all 4 in these playoffs! As for Seattle, their first loss in this post-season was by 1 goal but all 5 of their losses since then have been by a multi-goal margin. As a hockey fan, I am very impressed (and somewhat surprised) by what coach Dave Hakstol and these Kraken have accomplished in this post-season. But winning a Game 7 on the road against an angry Stars team with a lot of playoff experience is not only not going to be easy...it is going to prove virtually impossible. The home team steps up in a big way here! 10* DALLAS -1.5 +125

Rotation #200077: English Premier League Monday OVER 3 in Leicester vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - Leicester is fighting for their lives as they are currently in the relegation zone. Leicester is at home here and has scored decently here this season plus they enter this match on an overall run that has seen them average 1.8 goals scored in last 5 matches. The issue for Leicester is a leaky backline and they have conceded an average of 2 goals per match in their last 14 across all competitions. 11 of their last 16 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and this one should too. Liverpool has won 6 straight matches and, though the last two were just 1-0 finals, they are still averaging scoring 3 goals per match last 7 matches! Liverpool knows they can successfully attack more in this match given the poor play of Leicester defensively and I expect the Reds to be aggressive here. Remember that Liverpool is still mathematically alive for a top four finish so they will be pushing hard here. Given the way the Foxes matches have been going I am expecting plenty of scoring here as a result. OVER 3 in Leicester

Rotation #201801: Spanish La Liga Monday OVER 2.5 in Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano @ 3 ET - Real Betis still has not locked up a top six finish which is what they need to be guaranteed of Europa League football next season rather than entering the Europa Conference League playoff round. That said, I took expect the hosts to push hard here but so too will Rayo Vallecano. The visitors have been in solid current form and they are still very much alive in the race for European football as they are right on the fringe. In fact, if they win this match they vault all the way up to the #7 spot in the table. However, of course Real Betis is favored with good reason. The best value here, the way I see it, is with the over. Note that Rayo Vallecano has seen their last 9 matches average 3 goals apiece and only 1 of the 9 failed to get to the 3-goal mark. Also, they have both scored and conceded in 7 of those 8 matches. On that note, in the last 5 meetings between these clubs, neither club has managed a single clean sheet! Real Betis is off a 1-0 win but this was preceded by 3 of 4 prior matches all totaling at least 4 goals. We only need 3 here to be a winner and all signs are pointing to that based on each clubs need for 3 points in the table heading into this one. No one will back down in this match. OVER 2.5 in Real Betis

NHL Sunday Edmonton Oilers Money Line -180 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 10 ET - I like to play underdogs and small favorites and totals and also I even play big money line dogs at times too. However, sometimes there are situations that demand to be played and that do involve laying some juice. This is absolutely one of those. Edmonton is a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times they were off a loss. Now I know we could play the puck line here but of those 8 wins, 3 of them were by just a single goal margin. I do like the fact that the Oilers have responded big in this series with a multi-goal margin of victory each time off a loss to the Golden Knights. Indeed, Vegas has played well in this series but the Oilers have won 3 of their last 4 home games and have been so strong off a loss. Give credit for Vegas coming up big in Game 5 but now it is the Oilers turn on home ice in Game 6 as they take that run to 9 in a row. EDMONTON -180

MLB Sunday OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:05 ET - The Rangers are hot and can score plenty of runs. The A's sometimes struggle at the plate but they have had their moments in recent games too. I will go with action on the pitchers because the Athletics league-worst bullpen is a key to this play, not just the starters. That said however, the fact that Heaney is getting the start for the Rangers here should help our cause and the same holds true for Rucinski. So Heaney is winless with a 7.15 ERA in his two starts this month. Also, he did face the A's in Texas last month so the fact they are getting another quick look at Heaney could help here. As for Rucinski, he has struggled in all 3 of his appearances this season and has allowed an opponents batting average of .339 and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA so far this season. Look for plenty of runs here and we saw some 9.5 earlier and the fact this is down to a 9 means even more value. The Athletics have had a few hot hitters at the plate and the Rangers lineup should continue to steamroll the weak A's pitching staff. OVER 9 in Oakland

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +230 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics have home court here so they are practically being handed their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals by most pundits. However, the road team is actually 7-2 SU in Boston's last 9 games. So you might think that stat is just because the Celtics are so strong on the road but it is NOT just that. Boston has actually lost 3 of last 4 home playoff games. Also, the Celtics are only at .500 (straight up!) in their last 20 home post-season games! That said, the ability to get even BETTER than 2 to 1 odds on the Sixers to surprise in this game is just too good to pass up! Many think Philly only goes as Harden goes. However, the 76ers won Game 5 by DOUBLE DIGITS despite Harden making only 4 field goals and just 1 from deep! He did not have a big scoring game yet Philly won the game big and that was here in Boston. Embiid dominated, Maxey had a huge game, Harris was solid in that one and Harden was good but not spectacular. All these guys are capable of stepping up again. Embiid is capable of taking over in this game if he puts his mind to it. Harden could take over and have a massive game and that would make a Sixers win even more likely. but even if Harden does not, I point to the most recent Philly win in this series and that was here in Boston. A key here is confidence and the Sixers have already won here twice in this series. All the pressure is on the Celtics as they are expected to win at home. We all know what often happens when a team is expected to win and they are harboring all the pressure. I look for a loose and relaxed and confident Philly team to shock everyone and get the outright win here! Not only is Boston 1-3 SU last 4 home games, the 76ers are 6-1 SU last 7 road games. They have traveled well and they do it again here. No points needed, the Sixers win this outright. PHILADELPHIA +230

Rotation #206894: Romania Liga 1 Sunday FCSB Money Line -110 vs CFR Cluj @ 2 ET - With Farul settling for a draw last night, FCSB now controls their own destiny in their quest for the Championship. If FCSB wins out, which includes next week's match at Farul, they will be the Champions. I am not necessarily saying they will do just that but I do expect them to get the win today to set up the huge match in Constanta next week! FCSB has been in much better form than CFR Cluj in this play-off stage. Also, this has been particularly true in terms of the home/road situation here. FCSB has been particularly strong as a host and CFR Cluj has been struggling particularly on the road. FCSB is 4-0 with one draw last 5 matches at home and they have outscored their opponents by a combined 11 to 5 in those matches. CFR Cluj is winless in last 4 road matches and has been outscored 7 to 4 in those matches. Considering all of the above, I do not see the hosts being denied tonight. Also, FCSB should have Compagno back for this one - missed the 3-1 win over FC Arges - even if he is not in the starting 11. FCSB Money Line -110

Rotation #200073: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3 in Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove @ 11:30 AM ET - Big match with Arsenal still alive for the top spot in the league though Manchester City is trying to pull away. Also, Brighton & Hove still is looking to secure a finish in the top eight so they insure European football for next season. So when you factor that in, despite some injuries impacting this match too, you look for plenty of push from both clubs here. That push should also translate to goals because both these clubs have been scoring well but also conceding with frequency. Arsenal is off a rare clean sheet in their 2-0 win last week but this was preceded by allowing 12 goals over their last 5 matches. Arsenal is scoring an average of 3 goals per match at home this season. Brighton is averaging scoring 2 goals per match on the road this season! Brighton enters this one off a 5-1 loss but scored 7 goals in winning their 2 matches before that and those 2 victories were on the heels of a 3-1 loss. Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same here. OVER 3 in Arsenal

Rotation #206889 Sunday OVER 2 in U Craiova 1948 vs FC Arges @ 11:15 AM ET - Both clubs still motivated to win and pick up 3 points in the table in the play-out stage. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here as FC Arges has had only 1 draw in their 7 matches in the play-out and there will be a big push here for a victory. Of course the trouble for FC Arges is they are on the road and U Craiova 1948 is favored for a reason here. The hosts have had some lower-scoring results of late but they are tough at home where they actually have averaged scoring a solid 2 goals per match in their last 9 matches on their home pitch. FC Arges has been strong of late with only 1 loss last 4 matches and they have averaged scoring 1.5 goals during this stretch. This should be a highly competitive match with plenty of scoring. OVER 2 in U Craiova 1948

Rotation #200065: English Premier League OVER 2.5 in Everton vs Manchester City @ 9 AM ET - I look for Manchester City to be more strong-armed than many expect here. Yes the Champions League is important to them but they also want to win the Championship in the English Premier League of course. That said, they only have a slim lead at the top over Arsenal. Points are important to City and they are also important to the club they are visiting early Sunday. The fact is that Everton is still close to the dangers of relegation but they did show they want to do something about that. They won 5 to 1 over Brighton! Indeed goals have flowed decently of late in Everton matches and at the same time I can't see City being slowed here either. That is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here and we certainly could see a lot more scoring than that. Lets take advantage of the very fair number here with this total. OVER 2.5 in Everton

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -145 @ Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - The Phillies are going for 5 straight wins. They recently welcomed Bryce Harper back to the lineup earlier this month. Now they welcome back Ranger Suarez to the mound as he gets the start tonight after completing his rehab assignment in the minors. The point is that both the mood and the level of play is up for the Phillies right now. Things seem to be turning around and they are now back to a .500 record after a slow start this season. As for the Rockies, they have been an oxymoron so far this season - or at least over the last few weeks. I say that because usually - almost without fail - they are better at home than on the road but that has been the reverse now for many weeks. I look for their home field struggles to continue here as the Phillies are the defending NL Champs and are finally starting to play like that again. Suarez is a solid southpaw and Ryan Feltner has been struggling at times for the Rockies. The right-hander gets hit hard and the lefty should shine against the Rockies just like he did when these teams met last season. No matter the pitchers here, we have the better team and the momentum on our side with better lineup and better bullpen too - no matter what the team ERAs show at this early juncture - I am talking about the guys in the pen and what the long-term is with these hurlers. PHILADELPHIA -145

NHL Saturday Dallas Stars -155 @ Seattle Kraken @ 7:10 ET - The Stars have been the better team in this series and they don't want to risk a Game 7 now. Yes, Dallas has the luxury of knowing a Game 7 would be back on home ice but they don't want to risk that in a series they have owned since dropping Game 1 in overtime. Note that Dallas has won 3 of 4 games since that OT loss and this is a team that has allowed an average of just 2 goals in their 7 post-season wins. The Stars continue to get good goaltending and the same can not be said of Seattle. The Kraken are seeing Grubauer go through a tough stretch at the wrong time. Part of the reason for his struggles though is definitely the fact that the Kraken are getting outplayed all over the ice. A key here is that the Stars are playing without pressure as all the pressure is on the Kraken to extend this series. That said, and considering Dallas had already been playing so well, this one has the makings of a road rout. The Kraken will be squeezing the sticks a little too tight as they have lost some of that first round magic they had against the Avalanche. DALLAS -155

Rotation #206881 Saturday OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Craiova vs Farul @ 2:30 ET - Farul is looking to clinch the top spot and the league title with a win here. However, Universitatea Craiova is certainly favored for a reason. Farul is off a 7-2 win and I know they are missing a few players heading into this match but they are so strong and will still put up a fight here on the road. The thing about Farul is they have plenty of scoring punch but they have been conceding goals with plenty of regularity of late. In terms of the over here, this certainly meshes well with a Universitatea Craiova club that has both scored at least one goal and conceded at least one goal in each of its last 8 matches! Those matches have averaged 3 goals and certainly at least a 2-1 final here sure seems to be in the offing. Note that the last 5 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals and those 5 matches have averaged 4.6 goals apiece. They have scored at least 1 goal in 13 of last 15 matches and have scored an average of 2 goals per match. This one should be very high-scoring given all the positive variables here, including Farul playing without pressure, which point to the over in this one. OVER 2.5 +110 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Saturday OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj vs Chindia Targoviste @ Noon ET - Chindia desperate for the 3 points as they are so dangerously low in the table. Cluj hungry for points because their position is almost strong enough to secure no fears of relegation and that they can automatically stay in Liga 1. That said, I am looking for goals here because the only draw either club has had in their 7 matches in the play-out stage was the scoreless draw for Cluj last week. However, prior to that draw, Universitatea Cluj had seen 11 of last 13 matches total at least 2 goals. In fact, those matches totaled an average of 3 goals apiece. We have excellent value with this total available at 2 goals. Chindia has seen 16 of last 21 matches total at least 2 goals. Those 16 matches averaged 2.6 goals apiece. With both teams likely to score and neither team apt to settle for a draw here (nor have they been!), this sets up well for a 2-1 final and 3 goals total at a minimum the way I see it. OVER 2 in Universitatea Cluj