Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-19-24 | Kings -115 v. Pelicans | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #557: NBA Friday Sacramento Kings Money Line (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - This money line is in the -125 range with the Kings favored on the road at New Orleans. The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans will do their best to step up in his absence but Williamson just scored 40 points before leaving with an injury in the final minutes of the 4 point loss to the Lakers. No one else on New Orleans topped 12 points! The Pelicans were at home for that game, just like this one, and note Williamson had 9 FT attempts in the game while the rest of the team had just 6 FT attempts. Who will be getting to the line in this game for NO? Who is going to be drawing contact inside and taking hard fouls to get to the line? The fact is the Pelicans just lost an absolutely key player. His presence made even more key because Brandon Ingram is not right. It is clear his knee injury is still limiting him. He had only 12 points in the loss to the Lakers and lasted only 23 minutes and his productivity faded as the game went on. Behind Williamson and Ingram (one absent and one hurting) the 3rd leading scorer for New Orleans is CJ McCollum. He will get a lot of attention here from the Kings defensively (just like he did against the Lakers) and he was 1 of 9 from 3-point land versus the Lakers! That was even with so much attention on Williamson which, of course, will not be the case in this game. The Pelicans won all 5 games against the Kings this season PLUS this game is at home BUT the Kings are now favored here ... think about that for a moment ... exactly! Don't be fooled by this! Lay it! SACRAMENTO (-) |
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04-19-24 | White Sox v. Phillies -168 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #920: MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -165 / -170 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:40 ET - Line value here because Garrett Crochet is starting for the White Sox. Lets not forget this is his first year as a starter and he is only 24 and has made only MLB road start. He did pitch okay in that one but lasted only 5 innings. He followed that up with his most recent start coming at home and piling up strikeouts but allowing 5 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. Crochet has good stuff but he is still adjusting to life as a big league starter and he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball which is a key in terms of the value here also. White Sox are just 3-15 this season. They have won only one of his 4 starts and he has not lasted as long on the mound in his last two starts. The Phillies are at home where they have won 3 straight and 7 of 11 games. Chicago is off a win but this after starting the season 2-14. The Phillies are the hotter and stronger team and are at home. White Sox bullpen ERA is better than Philadelphia's but the WHIP is the same and the Phillies have the much better SO to BB ratio as well. Spencer Turnbull, like Crochet, is off a tougher start. But, unlike Crochet, Turnbull is a long-time starter and is 31 years old. He bounces back here at home while the young White Sox hurler could struggle on the road and the lack of run support will keep the pressure on him. This Chicago team has 3 games where they scored decently but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1.3 runs scored per game! Philly has not been pounding the ball but they certainly have been better at the plate than the ChiSox. The Phillies have averaged scoring 4 runs per game at home this season including scoring a dozen runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. More of the same here! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-19-24 | Lazio v. Genoa OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #201321: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2 -125 in Genoa vs Lazio @ 12:30 ET - These clubs last met in Coppa Italia action and it was a 1-0 final as was their most recent meeting in Serie A action back in August. However, the long-term history between these clubs is that the goals fly and this is another one, based on situation, that should be a goal-laden affair. Prior to the August meeting, the last 13 meetings totaled 57 goals! 1 totaled just 2 goals but the other 12 all totaled 3 or more goals and those dozen matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece! That said, we have some excellent line value with this total available at 2 goals. Genoa has trended toward higher scoring matches when on their home pitch this season and Lazio has trended toward higher scoring matches when on the road this season. Genoa home matches averaging 2.7 goals apiece. Lazio road matches averaging 2.8 goals apiece. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting each club to make the net ripple in this one. That means at least a 1-1 final but what about the likelihood of a draw here? Lazio has the FEWEST draws (4) of any club in Serie A this season and that includes only ONE draw in 16 matches on the road this season. Also, only 2 of the last 15 meetings between these clubs have finished in a draw. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final here. Lazio enters this match off a huge 4-1 win to get back on track and Genoa has scored in 5 straight matches at home and averaged scoring 1.6 goals per match during this 5-match stretch. OVER 2 -125 in Genoa |
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04-19-24 | Botosani v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #206941: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt has scored 7 goals in their 4 matches in the play-out and Botosani has scored 6 goals in their 4 matches. Only 1 club (Voluntari) out of all 16 clubs in the play-off and play-out for Romania Liga 1 has scored more than these two clubs. That said, we have some nice value on the over here with this total available at 2 goals. Note that both clubs have momentum coming off big wins last week and Hermannstadt has scored 9 goals in its last 4 matches on its home pitch. They are battling other clubs at the top of the play-out table so getting the full 3 points in the table is the goal here and not settling for a draw. Botosani also has impressed as they look to escape the relegation zone of the play-out table. Their confidence surging with each win and they too will be pushing hard for the crucial 3 points. Considering this factor and the strong likelihood each club makes the net ripple at least once in this one, I am anticipating this gets to 3 goals, at least, via a 2-1 final. Botosani has played 11 matches since the start of February and 8 of the 11 (73%) have totaled at least 3 goals. Botosani visited here in late January and lost 2-0 but had scored at least 1 goal in each of 5 prior matches at Hermannstadt. They carry some momentum from the recent home successes but also have allowed 19 goals in last 12 games and the hosts have scored 29 matches in their last 16 matches at home! OVER 2 -120 in Hermanndstadt |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco |
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04-18-24 | Liverpool v. Atalanta OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #224429: UEFA Europa League: OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - With Atalanta having a 3-0 lead because of the 1st leg, Liverpool has no choice but to go for it here and throw caution to the wind. Remember, the Reds have done this before - completely turning it around after an ugly 1st leg - and, though it won't be easy don't be surprised if the Reds do it again. If nothing else, it should set up for an exciting affair because Liverpool will be on the attack but this exposes them at the back also. The last time they visited Atalanta they won 5-0. Also, I really like the way this one sets up. The Reds are off B2B losses that were both at home but now this is the first of 4 away matches for Liverpool. They are not home again until May but sometimes this type of scheduling quirk completely refocuses a club and I look for them to come out strong and firing on all cylinders. Jota has been back (sparingly, last 2 matches) but is ramping up and could (should!) play an even bigger role here. Also, I like the fact that both home defeats (shockingly!) were shutout losses for the Reds. I expect them to be utterly relentless here in terms of possession and attacking and they will score big here but should also allow at least 1 goal as clean sheets have just not been there for the Reds plus they are going to be so aggressive on the attack. So perhaps a 4-1 result and this 2-leg tie eventually decided on penalties. Or could it be, for Liverpool, a disappointing 3-1 win (they must win here by at least 3) or 2-2 draw or even 3-2. Looking at this match from all angles I feel the over 3.5 at even money offers the best wagering opportunity here! OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta |
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04-18-24 | Aston Villa v. Lille OSC OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #215221: UEFA Europa Conference League: OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille vs Aston Villa @ 12:45 ET - Aston Villa won the 1st Leg by a 2-1 final but Lille was able to create plenty of scoring chances and, in the opinion of many, deserved at least a draw in that battle. Now, on their home pitch and trailing by a goal on the aggregate, Lille is sure to be even more aggressive than they were in the 1st Leg. The result will be plenty of scoring chances but also will open things up for a dangerous Aston Villa club on the counter-attack. Aston Villa has scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 7 matches across all competitions. Lille has both scored and conceded in 6 straight matches! But a 1-1 draw is unacceptable to them here as they already trail by a goal because of the 1st leg result. That is why you would see a strong push from Lille even with the counterattack risk and I can not foresee this match ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. Lille has fresh legs too since they have not played since last week's match with Aston Villa. Lille has scored multiple goals in 7 of last 8 on their home pitch and the only match they did not was certainly impacted by the fact it was a 2nd Leg match in which they already led 3-0. The point is this French Ligue 1 club is particularly strong on the attack on their home pitch and, down 2-1 in this battle, they will respond well here but Aston Villa makes them pay on the counterattack. Asking for 3 goals here is not asking too much! OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-17-24 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #912: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly Monday followed by the 5-0 shutout loss yesterday, have dropped to 4-14 on the season and 2-10 in road games. Colorado is now 24-69 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though Monday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. After yesterday's 5-0 loss, the 8 road losses the Rockies have by a multi-run margin have come by an average margin of defeat of 6.3 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Ryan Feltner has struggled in both of his road outings this season. The right-hander has been hammered by lefties early this season and Bryce Harper is heating up plus the Phillies have dangerous left-handed sticks in addition to Harper. Schwarber, Stott and Marsh all could be in line for doing damage against Feltner here. Since entering the league with the Rockies, Feltner is 7-15 with a 5.80 ERA! Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams and is starting to show signs of getting the sticks going! The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of 12 road games this season! In those 9 games they have averaged only 1.2 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty again today after struggling against Suarez yesterday. Now Christopher Sanchez gets the start and he has been strong at home so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 11 innings at home while striking out 14 in those 2 starts! He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue as Feltner again gets hit hard away from home. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 |
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04-17-24 | Real Madrid v. Manchester City -153 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #224226: Champions League Wednesday Manchester City Money Line -153 vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Real Madrid, of course, is a top club and they have been enjoying plenty of success. However, this Manchester City club is on an incredible run on their home pitch plus they are the healthier club heading into this match-up. It looks like City should have all hands on deck for this one while Real Madrid has been without guys like Alaba and Courtois. Militao is back now for Real Madrid but is still not fully fit. Also, Tchouameni is out due to accumulating too many yellow cards. Yes, Real Madrid are on a 15-match unbeaten run but City is unbeaten in 27 consecutive matches! Not only that, on their home pitch, Manchester City is unbeaten in 41 straight matches! Of course a draw here means a loss for us but I do not expect City to allow this match to get way from them and they put it away comfortably during regulation time. The last time Manchester City hosted Real Madrid they prevailed 4-0. This one will not be so easy but City will pull away as this match goes on. City was a bit sloppy at the back in the draw at Real Madrid but they will shore that up here at home plus some of their key players that had mediocre games in the away match will come up big here at home. It is much different for Real Madrid trying to be so strong on the counter-attack when you are away compared to at home. Couple that with the attacking prowess of City and I look for Real Madrid to be pushed back on their heels from the get-go in this one. The hosts are worth the price here. MANCHESTER CITY -153 |
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04-16-24 | Warriors v. Kings +135 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 135 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #544 NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +135 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 PM ET - In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here. This line opened up at nearly a pick'em and, as expected, everyone has jumped all over the Warriors in this one in terms of market analytics. Golden State has a long-term reputation and the star power that leads to them often being over-valued. That is the case here in my opinion. Other than Steph Curry, the other Warriors just are not what they used to be. Yes, the Kings are without Monk and Huerter but they have been without one for two weeks and the other for a month. So they have had time to adjust. They are still loaded with talent and Fox, Sabonis, Murray and Barnes will lead the way here. I also like the fact that Ellis has responded well to his increased playing time and he averaged 15 ppg in the last 4 games. Also, he is a solid defender and of course Fox is known for his perimeter defense as well in addition to being a big-time scorer. The Kings also are not the only one with injuries as the Warriors Payton is out for this one and his absence weakens the Golden State bench for this one. The Warriors finished the season hot but their last two home wins were against a Jazz team that finished 31-51 on the season. Also, Golden State's last 5 road wins included only one win against a playoff-level team (Lakers) and the other 4 were against 22-60 San Antonio, 41-41 Houston, 21-61 Charlotte and 21-61 Portland. So for all the hype about the Warriors strong season finish, they had 4 last season wins over teams that finished 40 games under .500 and two wins over a Utah team that finished 20 games under .500 on the season. Also, the Warriors were better on the road this season but they entered this season having finished a combined 41 games under .500 the last 4 seasons combined when on the road. Last year in the post-season Golden State went just 2-5 SU on the road but those two wins were against the Kings in a 7-game thriller that knocked Sacramento out of the post-season. This is payback! No points needed! SACRAMENTO +135 |
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04-16-24 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #954: MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:40 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly yesterday, have dropped to 4-13 on the season and 2-9 in road games. Colorado is now 24-68 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though yesterday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. Those 7 losses by a multi-run margin came by an average margin of defeat of 6.4 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Austin Gomber has struggled in 2 of his 3 outings this season. The southpaw had his worst start of the season thus far on the road at Arizona. Since coming to the Rockies Gomber actually has had two season with a ROAD ERA of 5.98 or more! So the ups and downs of Gomber have not just been because of a tough home venue at Coors Field. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams. The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 11 road games this season! In those 8 games they have averaged only 1.4 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty as Ranger Suarez has been great so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 17 innings and Suarez faced a hot Pirates team and a stellar Braves lineup for 2 of his 3 starts. He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue. Gomber gave up quite a bit of hard contact in his most recent start and, remember, that is his only quality outing so far this season. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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04-16-24 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #224217: UEFA Champions League Tuesday OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain @ 3 PM ET - In the first leg, Barcelona held Mbappe in check and yet PSG still scored two goals. I expect some adjustments from the PSG side to free up Mbappe a little more in the second leg. Down 3-2 on the aggregate, Paris Saint-Germain must be aggressive on the attack here but Barcelona also certainly has the firepower on the counter-attack to make them pay for an aggressive style. We have to lay a little extra juice to have this total at over 3 goals but I can't see this match ending with anything less than that! Barcelona has scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last 24 matches on their home pitch. The Barcelona manager said that this one is about two clubs that both like to play on the front foot. The PSG manager is saying they must attack and be aggressive here in the rematch and he felt they deserved at least a draw in the first match. Actually, a 2-2 draw is the type of battle I am expecting here in the second leg. With PSG down a goal and on the road, they will be aggressive from the outset in this one. PSG has scored 7 goals in its last 3 meetings with Barcelona. In terms of current form, PSG has scored in 8 consecutive matches across all competitions and has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match during this stretch. Another 3-2 battle or 2-2 at least should be expected here. Mbappe will be stronger in the rematch and the visitors will be on the attack which forces the tempo of this match and the hosts match them goal for goal. OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona |
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04-15-24 | Braves v. Astros OVER 10 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 10 -120 in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - This is a big total but it is justified. The Braves are the top hitting team in the majors thus far. The Astros are the top hitting team in the American League so far. Also, the Astros bullpen has struggled so far this season and the Braves bullpen has had ups and downs and rank only in the middle of the pack on the young season. As for these starters, I am not convinced of Vines "stuff" in terms of being a major league hurler. He is still young and raw and so give him a chance to develop but will his repertoire of pitches be enough at this level? I am still not convinced. I think the Astros will give him trouble here in his first MLB start of this season. Houston has a pitching concern of their own here as Arrighetti gets the start in this one. He could be back in AAA after this start as Verlander is close to coming back. There is a lot of pressure on the young hurler and he got rocked in his first MLB start versus the Royals and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. He had not looked overly sharp in the minors either. Arrighetti has a strong arm but he is just not quite ready yet and it is showing in his results. Given all of the above, the over is the play in this one as it should be a slugfest. OVER 10 -120 in Houston |
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04-15-24 | Sabres v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7 ET - This game is somewhat similar to yesterday's over I had which totaled 11 goals and was between two non-playoff teams. In this case, the Bolts are going to the post-season but this game can neither hurt them nor help them in terms of playoff positioning! As for the Sabres, they also can throw caution to the wind because they are not going to the playoffs so this game is just playing out the string on the season. If you look at all the other games on the schedule for Monday, there is a highly motivated team involved which ups the level of defensive intensity. I like looking for overs in games where teams may not be fully focused on defense and this is one of those! These teams will be skating and looking for chances and not too concerned about getting back on defense. We get additional value here because each of the 3 prior meetings this season were unders. You know what is coming here given the circumstances. Both teams were recently playing hard because of playoff reasons and the Sabres had been trending under as a result. However, no playoff pressure is involved here and the Lightning have had 5 of last 7 games total at least 6 goals and I look for a very free-flowing game here with plenty of goals given the situation. OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay |
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04-15-24 | Everton v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #200109: English Premier League: Monday OVER 3 -130 in Chelsea vs Everton @ 3 ET - Chelsea's last 7 matches across all competitions have ALL gone over the total! Not only that, those matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Solid line value here with this total being held down to a 3 in some books. Note that this is because Everton is known for lower-scoring battles but I do believe that Chelsea is going to dictate the flow of this match. Also note that Chelsea has been giving up plenty of goals no matter who they have faced. Chelsea has allowed 2 or more goals in 7 straight matches across all competitions. Everton has scored 2 goals in each of last 2 meetings with Chelsea. Also, Everton has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches overall. Chelsea is a sizable favorite here with good reason and you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above but, truly, a 3-2 type match is even more likely! Look for plenty of scoring in this one. OVER 3 -120 in Chelsea |
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04-15-24 | Sepsi v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Monday OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Sepsi @ 1:30 ET - This total is 2.5 with good reason. The last 3 meetings between these clubs, amazingly, have all been 0-0 draws! However, you are going to see nothing like that today. Rapid has had 4 straight matches go over the total. This one will make it 5 in a row as they continue to struggle to stop opponents but also continue getting on the scoreboard. They will fight hard on their home pitch to finally get into the win column here in the play-off round but they have allowed 8 goals last 3 matches. Rapid has scored an average of 2.5 goals in last 14 home matches! Sepsi has gone over the total in 3 straight road matches! That means we are testing double perfect over angles here. OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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04-14-24 | Coyotes v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6 -115 in Calgary Flames vs Arizona Coyotes @ 8 ET - The Flames and Coyotes playing out the string on the season and this is the type of match-up you can see turn into a high-scoring barn-burner. There is no playoff pressure. You just go out and play hockey without hesitation or large concern about protecting your own cage. Teams looking for breakaways and high-skill plays where they can attack. Calgary enters this one off a win in which they scored 6 goals. Also, they are 2-0 against the Coyotes this season and scored 6 goals in one of those wins as well! The Flames have allowed 4 goals per game on average last 19 games. The Coyotes have allowed 3.5 goals per game last dozen games. Also, Arizona has scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 9 games which has helped lead the way to a 6-3 run L9 games. This one looks like a back and forth barn-burner in which each team gets to the 3-goal mark. That said, great value with this total available at a 6. OVER 6 -115 in Calgary |
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04-14-24 | Philadelphia v. Atlanta United OVER 2.75 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #209841: Major League Soccer: OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union @ 2:30 ET - Atlanta is off a 1-1 draw on the road but they are a different club when they have been at home this season. Atlanta is 3-0 as a host and has scored an average of 3 goals per match in these 3 matches on their home pitch! Atlanta has scored 2 goals in each of last two meetings with Philly but also lost the most recent meeting by a count of 3-2. The goal should fly again in this one as Philadelphia is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and you can see why I am anticipating a 2-2 type match here. 3-2 (again) between these clubs seems even more likely but getting this one to at least 2-1, if not 2-2 or more, certainly seems likely given the above. OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United |
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04-14-24 | Steaua Bucharesti v. CFR Cluj -0.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #206914: Romania Liga 1: Sunday CFR Cluj Pick -130 vs FCSB @ 2 ET - This match is more important to CFR Cluj on their home pitch. They are part of a jumbled group in spots 2 through 5 in the table. Conversely, FCSB is already at the very top and 10 points clear of CFR Cluj. That is also part of the reason FCSB is resting some guys here. They are on the road and facing a tough opponent and I do not expect CFR Cluj to be denied here. FCSB is expected to be without Băluță and Popescu and Panțîru and Phelipe. That is four players that are typically in the rotation and FCSB is now facing their top challenger in the league on the road and without those players! CFR Cluj did lose most recent home match but this followed winning 4 of last 5 at home and those 4 victories were dominating - a combined 13 to 1 score. We could take CFR Cluj on the money line here but the goal line at Pick -130 is offering fantastic line value as a draw would still get us a push with our play. I like Cluj to take care of business here at home. CFR Cluj is off a 4-1 road win and their prior road match was a draw. But the last time they were at home they lost and also their most recent time hosting FCSB was a draw. They want this match badly and they get it! They are the healthier club and at home and the hungrier club! CFR Cluj Pick -130 |
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04-14-24 | Pirates v. Phillies -175 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -175 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -175 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - This one is in the -175 range but I am still willing to lay it. Keller for the Pirates has been rocked in each of his two road starts and those were against lighter-hitting teams. Those were against the Nationals and Marlins. Now he faces a much stronger lineup and the Phillies are likely to get to him early and often. At the same time, the Phillies Zack Wheeler is a tough luck 0-2 so far as he has pitched great and continued to pile up strikeouts. Mitch Keller is a respectable hurler but he is still just 26-39 with a 4.73 ERA in his MLB career. Last year he had a 5.35 ERA on the road and he has already been crushed in both road starts this season! Wheeler, on the other hand, is 22-11 in his home starts for the Phillies and this is a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA in a Phillies uniform. He loves pitching at home in Philly and will handcuff the Pirates here. Pittsburgh has gone just 5-5 since their 5-0 start. Also, not including extra innings runs, the Pirates have been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Phillies are the much stronger lineup and, though not hitting great yet this season, they do enough here at home especially as they take advantage of facing a starting pitcher known for road struggles. Lay the price with confidence here. PHILADELPHIA -175 |
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04-14-24 | Nets +15.5 v. 76ers | Top | 86-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+) |
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04-14-24 | Aston Villa v. Arsenal OVER 3 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #200105: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal vs Aston Villa @ 11:30 AM ET - These are two of the highest scoring clubs in the league. Arsenal is averaging 2.5 goals per match this season and Aston Villa scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Considering that, even though this is a high-stakes match, I just can not see a situation where offensive attacking is NOT ruling the day in this one. These clubs can, and will, be on the attack! The fact the total is available at a 3 in the marketplace makes the value in getting involved with this one even stronger. Arsenal, since the turn of he year, has scored 38 goals in 11 EPL matches! Aston Villa, across all competitions, has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 6 matches! This is also a revenge match for the Gunners as they lost at Aston Villa 1-0 earlier this season. Arsenal had scored 2.5 goals per match in last 4 meetings with Aston Villa prior to that. All signs point to a strong effort for the hosts here as a result but Villa has the attacking ability to turn this into a helluva back-and-forth match. 2-2 or 3-2 is what I am projecting here. OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal |
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04-13-24 | Devils v. Flyers -118 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Saturday: Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New Jersey Devils @ 5 ET - The Flyers are not dead yet. They just got a huge win over the Rangers 4 to 1 to stay alive. Note that the Red Wings, Islanders, Penguins and Capitals are all battling with the Flyers for the final two spots available. Of these other 4 teams, they are ALL underdogs today! The point is that Philly knows they have a tough game with New Jersey here but they also know they have a great shot to stay alive because the odds favor the other teams faltering. The Flyers have to take care of business on their own and they have a lot of momentum and positive vibes after saving their season with a huge upset win of the Rangers. They got solid goalie work and won 4-1 at New York. Now they are on home ice facing a Devils team that has had big time goalie issues. Kahkonen could start here but he has been dealing with a lower body injury. He is back now but this would be his first long-term action in over a week. Also, he has allowed 5 goals in his last 66 minutes on the ice! Jake Allen has allowed 4 goals in each of his last two appearances. The desperate Flyers will be the more determined team here and also I look for another strong start from goalie Samuel Ersson. He has been strong on home ice in most of his outings dating back to the All-Star break and now he comes into this one off the great start against the Rangers in New York. He'll be rock solid here! The Devils allowed 5 goals but got the win over the Maple Leafs in most recent game. But they have been allowing a lot of goals of late and I am happy to fade them off a win. We are now in mid-April and in the two month period dating back to mid-February, the Devils have won B2B games only twice! Also, New Jersey is 0-6 when off a win in which they allowed 3 or more goals. That run becomes 7 in a row here. These teams are division rivals and the games are always important and adding to the value with the Flyers is the revenge aspect after the Devils beat them in the outdoor game at MetLife Stadium when these teams met two months ago. Flyers played hard there but were on the wrong end. They get payback here and keep their slim playoff hopes alive in the process. Price is a bargain currently in the -120 range. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-13-24 | Pirates v. Phillies -142 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 4 ET - I am coming right back with the Phillies today after losing with them yesterday. The Phillies lost B2B games to open this season but have not lost B2B games since. The Phillies are 5-0 L5 times off a loss. The Pirates have been a pleasant early season surprise but had lost 2 straight overall and 2 of last 3 on the road prior to the road win yesterday in the 2nd of 4 games in this series. Both starting pitchers are off to great starts this season but Turnbull has been even better than Gonzales. Turnbull has allowed just 5 hits and struck out 13 while Gonzales has allowed 9 hits and struck out only 6. Both have pitched 11 innings and Gonzales has allowed only 3 earned runs but Turnbull has not allowed any earned runs. The Phillies have a lot of guys with experience against Gonzales and they have had success against him. Turnbull was in the American League and, as you would expect, the Pirates have few hitters with experience against him. Those that do have gone a combined 1 for 11 against him. Phillies bounce back at home and make it 6-0 L6 times when off a loss! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-13-24 | Petrolul 52 v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Cluj off a 1-1 draw on the road preceded by a scoreless draw at home. Prior to that one however, they had won 3 straight matches on their home pitch and scored an average of 1.7 goals per match. Petro will be ready to go here after an ugly 4-0 loss to Voluntari and this was a home match for Petro! They are fired up to respond and had scored an average of 1 goal per match in last 7 matches overall prior to that disaster. Though I do expect a strong effort to net at least 1 goal for Petro here, I also do not see them stopping the hosts in this one either. Universitatea Cluj, just like Petro, have extras motivation to be aggressive on the attack in this one. OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj |
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04-13-24 | Manchester United v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #200125: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5+110 in Bournemouth vs Manchester United @ 12:30 ET - Manchester United is going to bring a strong effort here as Ten Hag is under pressure and this club needs to respond. They also have revenge on their minds for a crazy 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth earlier this season. However, though I do expect them to respond and though I do respect their capabilities on the attack, Man U can not be trusted defensively. Also, the Cherries are sure to bring a strong effort on their home pitch here. That said, this match should be filled with goals galore. Bournemouth has the added boost of confidence of the 3-0 victory over Man U earlier this season. However, Man U had won 3 straight meetings by a combined score of 9 to 2. Entering this match, Bournemouth has scored in 6 straight matches and averaged 2 goals per match! Man U has scored in 17 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged 2.2 goals scored per match! Man U also has the fewest draws (4) in the league and that means they are a club known for throwing caution to the wind in going for the wins in addition to also proving very susceptible to blown leads as well. This one I am anticipating a 3-2 type match here as a result but certainly 3-1 does the trick just as well. High-scoring battle on tap here. OVER 3.5 +110 in Bournemouth |
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04-13-24 | Luton Town v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #200117: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City vs Luton Town @ 10 AM ET - 3 straight City matches across all competitions have totaled 5 or more goals. Luton Town is off a rare win and did score 2 goals in that victory. Luton Town has now scored 28 goals in last 16 matches across all competitions. In other words, the goals should fly in this one! There is no way Luton Town is going to shut down this powerhouse club on their own turf. But, even on the road, these visitors have shown they can at least get on the board. At the same time, City is a very heavy favorite here with good reason. Look for at least a 3-1 type final here. City has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 8 to 3. This one has 4-1 written all over it. City is rolling strong again with 11 goals scored in last 3 matches across all competitions. They have conceded an average of 2 goals per match last 3 as well. Luton Town throws caution to the wind here because they really have no choice. As a result, the goals fly here! OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City |
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04-12-24 | Hurricanes v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -115 in St Louis Blues vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 8 ET - Both teams have motivation as the Hurricanes are looking at playoff positioning while the Blues are still hoping to sneak into the post-season. With both teams bringing a strong effort I do expect the goals to fly here. The Canes have won 14 of 18 games and have scored an average of 4 goals in those 14 victories. Of course they are favored here on the road with good reason. St Louis has won 10 of 15 games and has scored an average of 4 goals in those 10 wins! 7 of the last 11 Blues games have totaled at least 7 goals. I know Carolina is strong defensively and in goal and is off a 4-1 win at Boston. However, prior to that, the Canes had allowed 11 goals in last 3 road games. The way both teams are playing in the offensive zone of late, getting 5.5 goals here is truly a bargain. OVER 5.5 -115 in St Louis |
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04-12-24 | Magic v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-12-24 | Pirates v. Phillies -158 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET - Bailey Falter is a former Phillie and will be pitching back in Philly for the first time since going to Pittsburgh mid-last season. The added pressure will likely do him no good. Falter has gone 0-6 on the road with a 6.55 ERA since the start of last season! He is road-adverse to say the least and he is in trouble here on the road at Philly. The Pirates over-achieved a little bit early this season but are coming back down to earth and have lost 4 of 8 since their hot start and that includes B2B defeats entering this game. The Phillies, on the other hand, underachieved early but are starting to play better! They have won 5 of 7 including B2B wins. Also, they are known for being a tough team at home in Philly. Sanchez is facing a Pirates team that has 7 hitters that have experience against them. Of those 7, six of them are a combined 0 for 12 against him. Sanchez had a 3.44 ERA last season and was solid in his lone home start so far this season. Remember that last season the Pirates were 7 games under .500 on the road and the Phillies were 17 games over .500 at home. Lets not over-react to the early season results this year. Also, you can already see a shift happening in that regard and it continues here. Look closely at these two lineups and think about which one you would rather have if you were building your own team...exactly! Phillies roll! PHILADELPHIA -160 |
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04-12-24 | Celta de Vigo v. Betis OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #201805: Spanish La Liga: Friday OVER 2.5 +100 in Real Betis vs Celta de Vigo @ 3 ET - Celta de Vigo is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league in road matches. When away from home, they are averaging 1.5 goals scored per match! As for Real Betis, they are going to battle strong on their home pitch and take advantage of a visitor that is allowing 1.8 goals per match when on the road. You can see why goals can be expected to fly here. Helping the cause is the fact that Real Betis has been scoring well but also conceding at a high rate as their current run of form has resulted in 4 of last 5 matches totaling at least 3 goals and these matches averaged 4 goals apiece. This one also is testing a 6-0 run as Celta de Vigo has had 6 straight road matches total at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for the over run to reach a perfect 7-0 with another high-scoring battle here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Real Betis |
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04-12-24 | Salernitana v. Lazio OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #201281: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio vs Salernitana @ 2:45 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 3 goals apiece! Salernitana has allowed 2 goals per match this season and I see at least a 2-1 final here as Lazio has not exactly been a clean sheet machine of late! Lazio is allowing only 1 goal per match this season but also, after recent struggles, they are looking for a breakout game on the attack and I expect an aggressive approach and plenty of goal-scoring as a result. 3-0, 2-1 or 3-1 all seem like perfectly logical finals here and we take advantage of this total being available at 2.5 goals. OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115 |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Thursday: OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as the Red Sox and Orioles starters both present impressive ERA numbers and so do the bullpens. Already this posted total has moved from a 9 down to an 8.5 in a number of places. I expect the Red Sox to hit well at home and the Orioles got to the Sox pen yesterday in their huge comeback win and can do that again here. However, also note that Baltimore could get to Whitlock better than most might expect. He has had one day start and one night start this season. He did not allow any earned runs in night start but, in 4 innings he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Last season Whitlock had a 6.34 ERA and a .326 BAA in his night games. As for the O's Rodriguez, he gave up 7 hits and walked 2 in less than 5 innings in his only start versus the Red Sox last season and that was here at Fenway Park. Again, a bit of a contrarian play but you can see exactly why I am expect runs to again flow between these teams, just like yesterday. OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston |
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04-11-24 | Flyers +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -140 @ NY Rangers @ 7 ET - The Flyers are getting some attention today as the money line on this game keeps moving lower even though Philly has been in an awful slump. So who would be betting Philadelphia when they are slumping so badly? Sharps! That said, I still don't trust the Flyers on the money line here as a big dog but I do expect an ultra-competitive effort against the division rival Rangers. Therefore, the value here is with the puck-line. If the Flyers fall short, look for it to be by just a single goal. Coming off some ugly losses including that 9-3 beatdown at Montreal, the Flyers will be ready to respond big here. Their playoff chances are now slim but they are not done yet. The funny line movement on this one clues us in. The underdog is the play. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -140 |
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04-11-24 | Devils v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 -105 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - With no playoff pressure now, look for the Devils to play a wide-open style here with plenty of scoring opportunities going both ways. As for the Maple Leafs, they are starting Samsnov between the pipes and he has been playing well but I look for New Jersey to bring an aggressive effort and pepper him with shots. Of course the strength of the Leafs is in the offensive zone and they will take advantage of facing a struggling Allen between the pipes for New Jersey in this one. Allen just allowed 4 goals to the Leafs and I expect more of the same in this one. Toronto has won 6 of 7 games and averaged scoring 4 goals per game during this hot streak. The Devils have had 4 straight road games total at least 7 goals. Overall, 7 of last 9 New Jersey games have totaled at least 7 goals. More of the same here. 3 straight meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 7 goals and this one will too. OVER 6.5 -105 in Toronto |
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04-11-24 | Atalanta v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #224401: Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool vs Atalanta @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met was 4 years ago and it was after COVID had begun so the matches took place in empty stadiums. Liverpool still scored a total of 7 goals in those 2 matches and the 2nd meeting was after they already had a 5-0 lead plus Anfield was empty! Now imagine the charged atmosphere in the stadium for this one and you know where I am going here! The Reds are going to bring a super strong effort on their home pitch to look to get an advantage in the first leg of this one. However, Atalanta has solid attacking talent and the Reds have been nowhere close to flawless in front of their own goal. In other words, look for the visitors to score here. Also, Liverpool is certainly favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line with good reason. In other words, look for a 3-1 type final here...maybe 3-2. The goals should fly and the value of the over 3 in this one (even at higher juice) is certainly a nice perk as well in terms of mitigating risk if this one lands on 3 goals. Liverpool has had 5 straight matches overall total at least 3 goals and 4 of those totaled at least 4 goals so this spot is testing a 100% run L4. Also, L6 in Europa League action all totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the 6 totaled 4 or more so this one also is testing a 5-0 100% run to the over. Atlanta has scored in all 8 Europa League matches during this campaign and averaged 2 goals scored per match! Look for the goals to fly in this one. OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool |
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04-11-24 | Fiorentina v. FC Viktoria Plzen OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #215205: Europa Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen vs Fiorentina @ 12:45 ET - If you look at recent results for these clubs you will be looking under. However, the fact is Fiorentina likes to attack and they will want to be aggressive here on the road to establish the upper hand in the first leg of this match-up. This is going to force the tempo of the match and certainly Viktoria Plzen is going to put up at a fight here on their home pitch. They had B2B scoreless draws with Servette in the most recent match-ups in this competition but this followed Plzen rattling off 6 straight victories and scoring an average of 1.5 goals in those 6 wins in the Europa Conference League matches. Now they host a tough Fiorentina club that is undefeated in the 8 matches in this competition thus far and has scored an average of 2.5 goals in those matches. Given all of the above, I am envisioning a 2-1 type match here. Fiorentina has only 2 clean sheets in the 8 matches and they allowed an average of 1.7 goals in the other 6 matches. OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen |
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04-10-24 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 226.5 | Top | 89-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - I realize Wembanyama may not play here because of the late-season back to back and a season going nowhere. However, if he is out it certainly is about much more than point production. This guy has 7 blocks in each of last two games. The Spurs interior defense will be hurt. I am aware there are many injury issues for San Antonio right now but with both SA and OKC in a B2B spot, I expect very lax defense here. Oklahoma City knows they can easily win this without playing D and the Spurs are just fine getting into a run and gun type game. Yes, the Spurs win at Memphis was an under last night but San Antonio allowed the Grizzlies to take 104 shots from the field. The fact is that the Grizz just had an awful shooting night. Speaking of which, the Spurs also were a sub-par 10 of 40 from 3-point land last night. The Thunder are also off a game that stayed under last night but they also allowed a lot of shots (96) from the field but Sacramento had a 34% shooting night from the field. The situational aspects of this game dictate a small-ball style with a lot of run and gun style and very little defense. The Kings took 58 threes against the Thunder last night. Also, Oklahoma City now has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back on the floor and he scored 40 last night. OKC scored 123 in the first meeting between these teams this season and then the last two meetings have each totaled 250+! More of the same here and we take advantage of a total in the 226.5 range on this one. OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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04-10-24 | Blackhawks v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER the total in St Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 8 ET - I lost a play involving the Blackhawks recently because they surprisingly got shutout on home ice. Yes, it has been a tough season for Chicago but they were playing better prior to that and should get back on track here. The Blackhawks have scored 10 goals in their 3 meetings with the rival Blues this season. However, they also just allowed 7 goals to St Louis in the most recent match-up. Overall, Chicago has been allowing too many goals this season and has allowed 3.6 goals per game last 10 games. St Louis has allowed 3.3 goals per game last 10 games. They are still fighting for a playoff spot - though hopes are slim - so that does two things here. It creates urgency for the Blues to be on the attack here and it also forces the division rival Blackhawks to push hard for scoring goals if they want to keep up in this one and try to play the role of spoiler. With this total at 5.5 goals we have added value on the over in a game that should get to at least 6 goals. 5 of the last 7 meetings between these clubs have totaled 6 or more goals. More of the same here. OVER the total in St Louis |
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04-10-24 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3 ET - The teams combined to go 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's 3-2 Arizona win. Look for much more clutch hitting today! Both these lineups are loaded with guys that have had success against the starting pitcher they are slated to face today. Also, both Austin Gomber and Tommy Henry are off to tough starts this season. The Rockies Gomber is having command issues with his pitches again and walking too many guys. He has made two starts this season and already got rocked when he faced the Diamondbacks in Arizona in the first one. As for the Dbacks Henry, he has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings this season and that includes getting rocked by the Rockies earlier this season. That start was in Arizona too and now he has to face them on the road at Coors Field. Look for both starters to struggle here and note that Arizona bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack and the Rockies bullpen ranks dead last in the NL based on ERA so far this season. This total has dropped from an opener of 12.5 down to a 12 as of 7 hours before first pitch and that also has added value to this play. OVER the total in Colorado |
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04-10-24 | Borussia Dortmund +0.5 v. Atletico Madrid | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #224209: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday Borussia Dortmund +0.5 goals +115 @ Atletico Madrid @ 3 ET - Solid value spot with Borussia Dortmund on the goal line in this one. While it is certainly true that Atletico Madrid is tough on their home pitch, I like the fact that Borussia Dortmund is coming off a 1-0 loss but had won 5 straight matches prior to that. Also, Atletico Madrid is off a 2-1 win but prior to that they were on a 3-6-2 run. Yes, just 3 wins last 11 matches prior to that tight victory. Given the above, I like our chances of at least a draw in this one with the visitors from the Bundesliga definitely having been in better form. Long-term across al competitions, Borussia Dortmund has had only 7 losses last 46 matches. All we need is a draw here to cash our ticket and this one shapes up to be a tight, low-scoring defensive-minded battle. BORUSSIA DORTMUND +0.5 goals +115 |
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04-10-24 | Barcelona FC v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #224213: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG vs Barcelona @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met it was a 1-1 draw. However, this followed 3 straight overs and those matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Barcelona enters this one having averaged 2 goals scored in their last 4 matches. Also, Paris Saint-Germain has averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 7 matches. I like the fact that Barcelona is the more rested club but PSG is hosting this one in Paris. This should bring out the best from both clubs and I look for plenty of attacking from Barcelona. Yes, they are capable of strong defensive play but they would love nothing more than to get the upper hand on the road in this one and take care of some possibly weary legs for PSG. This will be the hosts 3rd match in about a week while the visitors have not played yet in the month of April. 3 of the last 4 Barcelona matches in Champions League action have totaled at least 4 goals and this one will too! OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG |
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04-09-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies (-) at St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - I am riding the Phillies again today. Sonny Gray is back for the Reds today but likely limited to 65 pitches. Also, he declined on making a rehab start in the minors first. Could that come back to bite him here? I say there is a decent chance it does. The Phillies have some solid left-handed lumber that loves to face righties. Also, in terms of their right-handed bats it was good news for them to see Turner notch 3 hits yesterday plus Rojas, who had been off to a very rough start at the plate, also get 3 hits. The 2-3-4 hitters for the Phillies also had no strikeouts yesterday while each of the 2-3-4 hitters for the Cardinals had multiple strikeouts. The Phillies have Wheeler going today and he has already made 2 starts and has been stellar on the mound yet he has an 0-1 record. That will change to day because I expect Gray to be a bit rusty plus the Cardinals righty might only last 4 innings in this one. The Phillies take advantage as, already, extra bullpen was required yesterday due to the game going 10 innings so the Philly starting pitching edge here becomes an even bigger factor. Also, the Cardinals have been held to 3 or less runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Phillies have not been knocking the cover off the ball either but they have scored an average of 5.3 runs (not including extra innings of course) in the 4 wins in their current 4-2 run last 6 games! Also, the Phillies have won 3 of 4 road games this season and confidence is building again after the tough 2-4 homestand that began their season. Value here with the road team in the -130 price range! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-09-24 | Pistons v. 76ers OVER 221.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday OVER in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - The 76ers have been red hot and have 2 days off after this game and were off yesterday too of course! So, with another game not until Friday, the Sixers - no matter who is on the floor - will go all out here. Certainly they have been rejuvenated recently with Embiid playing some and Maxey playing some but, even if guys are rested some here, this Philly team has been showing their depth and they are sure to go all out here. In other words, look for them to surely push the pace here especially because they are excited to be closing out the regular season at home. Believe it or not, this will be just the 3rd home game the 76ers have had since mid-March! That road heavy schedule is why their final 3 games of the season are at home. The Sixers have averaged 116 ppg in winning 5 straight games and that average does not include OT points. Against the Pistons this season, Philly is 3-0 and has averaged 122 ppg in those games. In the last two they averaged 126.5 ppg. The Sixers are a 16 point favorite here so, even going with the lower average against Detroit that puts this final around 122-106 but finishing near the latter average would put this one in the 126-110 range. The point is that both these results crush the total in the 221 to 221.5 range which is posted on this game. The Pistons season is long finished but they could have Cade Cunningham back tonight and, either way, they will be happy to play a fast-paced game with Philly where defense is an after-thought. I am fully projecting that type of game here without a doubt and feel that will push this one into the 230s. OVER in Philadelphia |
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04-09-24 | Flyers -133 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday: Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7 ET - This is it for the Flyers. Essentially a must-win to keep playoff hopes alive. They face a Montreal team that has lost 4 of 5 and the Canadiens were outscored 19 to 8 in the 4 losses. One of the recent wins the Habs have was against the Flyers so this is a revenge spot for Philly. As bad as things have been for the Flyers, they are still mathematically alive and they have a tough road game on deck so they must get this one here knowing their final two games of the season are winnable ones on home ice. On a losing streak, Philly responds here with one of their best games of the season and that proves to be enough in this revenge spot versus the Canadiens. The line is in the -135 range and offers solid value. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-09-24 | Maple Leafs v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -110 in New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - The Maple Leafs are in a B2B so Woll will likely get the start in goal here. The Devils, because Kahkonen got hurt, are likely to use Allen here. Though he is off a game in which he allowed just 1 goal, this followed him allowing nearly 4 goals per game over a 5-game stretch and he did allow at least 3 goals in all 5 starts. That said, strong odds on each team getting to 3 goals here the way I see it and that would translate to nothing less than a 4-3 final. Note that Woll has allowed 4 or more goals in 2 of his last 3 starts. Also the Leafs recently welcomed back Mitch Marner after he missed about a month and he boosts Toronto's production in the offensive zone. The Maple Leafs have won 5 of 6 and scored an average of 4 goals per game in the 5 victories. New Jersey is off a 3-2 loss but this was preceded by 5 straight games totaling at least 7 goals and those games averaged 8 goals apiece. OVER 6.5 -110 in New Jersey |
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04-09-24 | Capitals +138 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 138 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday Washington Capitals +140 @ Detroit Red Wings @ 7 ET - Like the Flyers tonight, this is another playoff hopeful that is mired in a losing streak. One of the things I like about the Capitals here is that TJ Oshie did travel with the team for this 2- game road trip and that is a huge boost even if he is not on the ice tonight but I do expect him out there. Even if he does not go you are talking about a Washington team with their backs to the wall and the underdog price is what makes this one a huge value. The Red Wings are off a win but this followed losing 13 of 17 games and during this stretch Detroit only won B2B games one time. I am going to challenge the Red Wings to win B2B games here and grab the underdog price with a Capitals team ready to circle the wagons for this one and come up with a huge performance on the road boosted by the impending return of Oshie - possibly even tonight! WASHINGTON +140 |
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04-09-24 | Bayern Munich v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #224205: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - Quite a history here with 4 of last 5 meetings totaling at least 3 goals and also the fact that Bayern Munich has scored 5 goals in EACH of the last 3 meetings in Champions League action. Overall, 10 of last 12 Bayern Munich matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 10 matches have averaged 4.7 goals apiece! Arsenal has been on a great run defensively but I don't trust them to shut down a Bayern Munich team that always gives them trouble. At the same time, Bayern Munich has been far from water-tight defensively and this Arsenal club has scored average of 3 goals in last 13 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal |
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04-09-24 | Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #224201: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -118 in Real Madrid vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - 6 of the last 7 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and these 7 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Real Madrid enters this one having scored an average of 2.6 goals last 27 matches across all competitions. Manchester City scoring an average of 2.4 goals last 25 matches across all competitions. Each club has some injury concerns defensively as well. Yes Real Madrid will try to slow things down some on their home pitch but City is too strong and will break through. That will open things up to a match featuring plenty of attacking and counter-attacking and, just like the average scored in the last 7 meetings this one is likely to reach the 4-goal mark. That said, we only need 3 to be a winner here and I like our chances. OVER 2.5 -118 in Real Madrid |
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04-08-24 | Purdue +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
NCAA Monday Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - If you are a college basketball connoisseur you probably are well aware of the amazing history of UCLA basketball and when they were a dynasty from the mid 60s to the early 70s. You probably also are aware that since those dynasty days of legend head coach John Wooden and UCLA, there have only been two schools that have managed to have B2B national champs in the past 50 years! That said, so many things have to go right for a team to repeat and, as UConn tries to achieve that feat here, I feel the Zach Edey factor is too big to ignore. Yes the Huskies have a big man too but Edey is great at getting opponents into foul trouble and if Donovan Clingan gets into foul trouble it could greatly impact the interior of this UConn team. Couple that with the improving guard play of Purdue we have seen through their tourney run and there is no way I can pass up on the points here. As of about 15 hours before tipoff, this line is as high as a 7 and I feel we have excellent line value here with the Boilers. An outright upset would not shock me at all so certainly knowing they can lose by a half dozen points and we still cash our ticket has me very comfortable with the underdog side in this one. It is hard to say anything bad about the Huskies and indeed there are a fantastic team with stellar guard play too. I just feel that most everyone is already handing the Championship to the Huskies and this Boilers team is a confident, well-coached group that is going to have a helluva lot to say about that! Don't be surprised if this turns into a thriller that goes down to the wire! That said, having the points on your side could prove invaluable. PURDUE (+) |
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04-08-24 | Phillies -103 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies (-) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - This one in the pick'em price range and the Phillies offer great value here. The Cardinals are without a few players and even if catcher Wilson Contreras comes back he is not 100% yet with is hard. The back-up Ivan Herrera has hit okay but the catcher position is so important for how they work with the pitchers and call the games. Keep in mind Miles Mikolas has been around awhile and would likely rather have Contreras, a veteran, behind the plate. Will he even play? Will he be even close to 100%? Not only these questions for the Cards, the Phillies should have the edges here anyway. Better overall lineup and note that the starting pitching shows that Mikolas has been struggling in his first two starts this season. The Phillies Spencer Turnbull has just one start but it was a strong one. Mikolas has allowed 14 hits in 10 innings so far this season. Also, Mikolas allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in BOTH his starts versus the Phillies last season. Conversely, the Cards have very little experience against Turnbull and the St Louis hitters that do are a combined 3 for 16 against him. We really have big edges here with the Phillies at a great price. Philly is off a loss but has gone 3-0 last 3 times when off a loss. They bounce back here. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-08-24 | Penguins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6.5 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 7 ET - The Penguins are pushing hard for a playoff spot and they have been doing it with offense. Pittsburgh has scored an average of 4.3 goals in their last 7 games and has won 6 of them. The Penguins certainly have bene conceding a fair share of goals for an extended stretch as well. That has played a role in the fact 9 of their last 13 games have totaled at least 7 goals and I expect this one will as well. Toronto has scored an average of 4 goals per game last 13 games and playoff positioning still matters to them so they will not take their foot off the gas in this one either. 5-4 type game would not surprise me in the least and certainly we should see at least a 4-3 final. OVER 6.5 in Toronto |
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04-08-24 | Inter Milan v. Udinese OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #201277: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 -135 in Udinese vs Inter Milan @ 2:45 ET - Inter Milan is very comfortable at the top of the table. They are scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match this season and should cruise again here at Udinese. With practically no pressure at all on Inter Milan, I could see them relaxing a bit defensively and Udinese should get at least 1 goal here. Of course Inter Milan is a heavy favorite with good reason and I am projecting a 3-1 type match here. However, even if it only gets to 2-1 or perhaps 3-0 that still cashes this ticket for us. Udinese does average one goal scored per match when at home. 4 straight meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and that includes the last 3 totaling 4 goals apiece! Look for this over trend to make it 5 in a row on Monday. OVER 2.5 -135 in Udinese |
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04-08-24 | Dinamo Bucuresti v. Otelul OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Monday OVER 2 +110 in Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 1:30 ET - Galati has been playing very well in the play-out stage and also is on their home pitch for this one. Dinamo is desperate to avoid relegation and got a point in their last match with a 1-1 draw but they allowed 3 goals in their most recent road match. They will struggle, as per usual, on the road here but I do look for Dinamo to also make the net ripple in this one. Note that Dinamo won the most recent meeting between these clubs 3-1. Note that 12 of Dinamo's 16 road matches this season have totaled at least 2 goals and those dozen matches averaged 3 goals apiece. Considering the trending as well as the situational aspects of this one, we have excellent value on this total. OVER 2 +110 in Otelul Galati |
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04-08-24 | U Craiova 1948 v. CSMS Iasi OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Poli Iasi vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 10:30 AM ET - Iasi has been waiting for this one. Their last home match was a scoreless draw and they make up for that here. This is just their 2nd home match since late February. Other than that scoreless draw, the other 6 matches for Iasi since mid-February have averaged 2.5 goals apiece. Both Iasi and FCU 1948 Craiova have lost their first two matches in the play-out phase and they are desperate for the full 3 points in the table. They each have allowed 1.5 goals in their 2 matches in play-out so far and I expect each club to concede here and then an aggressive push for the 3rd and decisive goal in the battle. So take advantage of the plus money on the over 2.5 in this one. 3 of the 4 FCU 1948 Craiova matches last month totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too. This match will be played with a sense of urgency as both teams have concerns about relegation and must be more aggressive on the attack here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Poli Iasi |
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04-07-24 | 76ers -6 v. Spurs | Top | 133-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here with this line down to a -6. Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B but none of their guys played more than 27 minutes in yesterday's game. It was a big blowout win at Memphis and so none of the starters played in the 4th quarter either! Also, the 76ers need every win they can get right now and they have a great chance to win out as this is their final road game of the season. The Sixers are trying to move up to a playoff spot rather than being stuck in a play-in spot. As for the Spurs, they had been playing better and also playing much more competitive basketball. But now they have had a number of guys lost to injury. They just recently had a pair of guys (Vassell and Sochan) shut down for the season. Also, another player (Osman) is out for this game. Those guys combine to average 38 points per game. San Antonio will have their hands full with a Sixers team rejuvenated by the recent returns of Embiid and Maxey. Even if the Sixers rest a player or two in the B2B (which I do NOT expect) I would still like Philly here as the Spurs are definitely quite short-handed for this one and the 76ers have now won 4 straight games. The Sixers are well-aware they have 3 winnable home games remaining after this as well and they want to get into a playoff spot and avoid the play-in. Perfect scenario for another highly-motivated effort for the road team. Lay it. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-07-24 | Wild v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 5.5 -120 in Chicago Blackhawks vs Minnesota Wild @ 3:37 ET - With the Wild now effectively eliminated from post-season contention, they are expected to turn to Jesper Wallstedt here between the pipes. He gave up 7 goals in his only NHL start this season. He has been in the AHL ever since. Though Wallstedt had decent numbers in the AHL this season, he could struggle again here in a rare NHL start. Also, though the Blackhawks are not scoring giants for sure, they do tend to be stronger at home and they also have nothing to lose here late in the season and can fully throw caution to the wind. Note that Chicago has actually scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 6 home games! Also, Minnesota has allowed at least 4 goals in B2B games and those were at home. The Wild allowed 6 goals in their most recent road game! If you look at scoring metrics you will not expect an over here but there are other key late-season factors at work here and also the value is tremendous with the low total here. OVER 5.5 -120 in Chicago |
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04-07-24 | Portland v. Sporting KC OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #209989: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 2.5 -135 in Sporting KC vs Portland @ 1:45 ET - 3 straight Sporting KC matches have gone over the total and the 3 of them averaged 4 goals apiece! 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 5 goals and these 4 matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Portland enters this match with 5 of their last 6 matches this season totaling at least 3 goals! You can see why I like the over here and a 2-2 match would not surprise me in the least. Those 5 Portland matches that went over have averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same expected in this one. OVER 2.5 -135 in Sporting KC |
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04-07-24 | Phillies -142 v. Nationals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -142 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - I see no reason NOT to ride this situation again. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent seasons. The Nationals could lose 100 games this season. Sanchez is an under-rated hurler for Philly. He is not one of their big name stars but he is a serviceable starter that can absolutely prove effective against a struggling lineup like this Nationals team. The only runs that Washington has in this series are on a 2-run bomb from Joey Gallo. He has only 5 hits in 25 at-bats and, of the 20 outs 10 have come via strikeout! No disrespect to Gallo but he is just not the same hitter he was when he was with the Rangers. That is part of the reason he is on his 5th team in 4 years! You might ask why I am talking so much about just one player but the point is that this is a guy the Nats are relying on - he is their #3 hitter in the lineup - and he strikes out about 50% of the time over the last 5 seasons! Also, Gallo's homer was in the 3rd inning but yesterday (just like Friday) saw Washington not get a single hit after the 3rd inning! So laying this price (as low as the 140 range) with the better team, better lineup, better bullpen (yes they are better despite struggles earlier in the season)...this is a VALUE price. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-07-24 | CS U Craiova v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Sunday OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 8-0 in Universitatea Craiova road matches as they each totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 4 goals! In other words, goals will fly here in this one! Both clubs entering with 2-0 records so far in the play-off stage as well! Universitatea Craiova lost the most recent meeting with FCSB 3-0 but has since scored in 9 straight matches and averaged scoring 2 goals during this stretch! Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and FCSB has scored 8 goals in these 3 matches! Look for a wild one here as FCSB is so strong but Universitatea Craiova has been playing well and scoring well. FCSB has scored well at home and is averaging 2 goals per match in the last 7 on their home pitch! Look for that run noted above to reach 9 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB |
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04-07-24 | Nottingham Forest v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200053: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest @ 1 ET - Tottenham is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season plus they are at home here plus they are facing one of the weaker clubs in the league. The Hotspur are hosting a Nottingham club that has allowed 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Given these numbers and the match-up edges for the hosts, you can see why I am expecting Tottenham to score at least 3 goals here. The Hotspur are also motivated because of coming off a 1-1 draw. They are directly behind Aston Villa in the table so they would like to make a push for the #4 spot in the table! That said, 1-1 draws do not help much in that regard! Look for them to blowout Nottingham Forest there. The visitors should also get on the board however. They are off a 3-1 win and have scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches. Plus Tottenham has allowed at least 1 goal in 11 straight home matches! That is an amazing stat and when you also consider that the Hotspur are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line here, you can see why a 3-1 or 3-2 type match is highly probable in this one. Take advantage of the plus money at over 3.5 goals in this one! OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham |
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04-07-24 | Liverpool v. Manchester United OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #200077: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United vs Liverpool @ 10:30 AM ET - Some concerns for each club defensively entering this one. In terms of offensive production, the Reds are averaging 2.3 goals scored per match this season and Man U is averaging 1.4 goals scored per match on the campaign. Also, 2 of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled 7 goals! Liverpool enters this match having averaged 3.5 goals scored per match last 4 matches. Man U has scored an average of 2.5 goals scored last 4 matches. Even though some personnel could be back for each club here, there are still health concerns and depth concerns with each club defensively. That coupled with each clubs attacking strengths means we should see plenty of goals in this one! OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United |
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04-07-24 | Universitatea Cluj v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Sunday OVER 2 +105 in Hermannstadt vs Universitatea Cluj @ 7:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt is tough on their home pitch and is actually undefeated there ever since losing their home opener. Yes, undefeated last 15 matches and having scored an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch! Their last two home matches were both wins and they scored at least 3 goals in each of them. Universitatea Cluj has not been allowing goals of late but, per the above, I don't see them shutting down Hermannstadt on their own turf. As for Universitatea Cluj entering this one off a scoreless draw, they had won 3 of 4 matches prior to that and had scored 1.7 goals per victory. The low total of 2 on this one adds to the appeal and we will gladly invest here. OVER 2 +105 in Universitatea Cluj |
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04-06-24 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 209 | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Saturday OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8 ET - There are a lot of question marks about who Philly will have on the floor for this one but the odds makers do have them as a double digit favorite for a reason here of course. That said, this is a late-season non-conference match-up that features a non-playoff team hosting a playoff team that is off B2B key tight wins over stronger teams. I could see a bit of a lackadaisical defensive effort permeating this game from both sides because these are the type of late season match-ups that would lead to a more wide-open affair. It also helps the cause that Memphis has won 3 straight and has been scoring a little better of late. Look at it this way...the Grizzlies have averaged 110 ppg L3 games overall and 110 ppg L5 home games. The Sixers are favored by about 13 in the marketplace so that would put this game at 123-110 for a total of 233 points. I am not saying that happens but I am saying we have some value here when you consider that number is two dozen points above the current posted total of 209 on this game as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers have won 3 of 4 and have averaged 117 ppg during this stretch and multiple guys missed out in some of those games as well. So even if the 76ers have guys again missing in this one, you can see what they are capable of even without a stacked lineup. Going back to that original formula again looking at the other side of the equation, that puts this at Philly 117-104 over the Grizzlies. A dozen points on top of the current posted number. I see value with this total given the situational and match-up factors. OVER the total in Memphis |
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04-06-24 | Flyers -150 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers -150 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7 ET - Must win for the Flyers and I know they have been on a losing streak but now they face one of the worst teams in the league. Finally Philly gets on track here. Flyers won the first two games by a combined score of 9 to 4 but the Jackets won the most recent one 3-2 in the shootout. This will be payback. Blue Jackets down to their #3 goalie Jet Greaves and he has only 4 NHL starts under his belt in his career and he is 1-4 all time with a GAA north of 3 in his young career. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-06-24 | Devils v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - The Devils and Senators each allowing plenty of goals of late. New Jersey has allowed 18 in last 4 games and has lost 3 straight games. Ottawa has allowed 9 goals last 2 games. Each of their two meetings this season have totaled at least 7 goals. Devils have scored 29 goals in last 8 games and have had 4 straight games go over the total. The Sens are off a 6-0 loss but had scored average of 4 goals in last 6 games prior to that. 4 straight unders after 7 straight Senators games had gone over the total. The way each of these teams has been allowing goals of late, look for the over trend to resume. Their 3 games last season averaged 7 goals. The goals fly when these teams meet. OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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04-06-24 | NC State +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA Final Four Saturday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 6:10 ET - If you look at the two match-ups today we are talking about two very big favorites. In my opinion the best value is here with this underdog. NC State has been the cinderella team in this year's tourney and, conversely, as much I would like to pull the trigger on Alabama today, Connecticut has burned me multiple times and I just can not go against the Huskies. Out of both games today I feel the best value is in going against Purdue. As strong as Edey is, and he has the height edge here of course, Burns is likely going to do a job against him because he is such a big body. From a conditioning standpoint too, the time off has helped him. NC State has been playing very well defensively for an extended stretch now. They have the guard play to be strong enough on the perimeter too that I don't think this is going to be an easy "inside - outside" game for Purdue. The Boilermakers should still do enough to prevail but it will not be easy. I know the Boilers beat just beat #2 seed Tennessee but as long time followers know, I was not expecting much from the Volunteers because Rick Barnes track record in tourneys is not exactly stellar! That said, Purdue got 40 points from Edey or they likely would not even be here for this match-up today with, arguably, an even more dangerous dog. This Pack team is playing the underdog role perfectly as their confidence is building with each win and they feel no pressure. All the pressure here is on the Boilers to advance. As a result, don't be surprised if Purdue has another very ugly shooting performance here. Points are as high as 9.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff! Grab the big points! NC STATE (+) |
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04-06-24 | Phillies -168 v. Nationals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are struggling early this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start as I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on this same match-up. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line could have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Just like Nola and the Phillies bullpen yesterday, Suarez will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 2.8 runs per game last 5 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as, prior to yesterday they had given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). The Phillies Suarez is a tough southpaw and the Nats Jake Irvin went 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA last season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-06-24 | CFR Cluj v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Saturday OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 times Rapid has hosted CFR Cluj and, prior to a 1-0 win for Rapid at CFR Cluj, the last 4 meetings overall had all gone over and they averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, Rapid is off a 2-1 road win and their last 3 matches at home have all gone over the total and have averaged 4 goals apiece. As you can see, there are multiple perfect angles here. As for CFR Cluj, they have scored an average of 2 goals in their last dozen matches! Also, they have both scored and conceded in 5 straight road matches. Those have averaged 3 goals apiece. You can see, given the above, why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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04-06-24 | Arsenal v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton & Hove vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Brighton & Hove was shutout at Arsenal earlier this season but they scored 2.5 goals per match in 4 meetings prior to that. They will be out for revenge on their home pitch but Arsenal is battling for the top spot in the table with good reason. Also, this club rested some guys in their mid-week match so fresh legs will make them even more dangerous in this battle. Arsenal is off some lower-scoring wins of late but it is sounding like the shackles will be off in this one and I expect them to play an aggressive attacking style on the road here. Arsenal has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match on the road this season. Brighton, despite some recent low-scoring battles, does still have attacking talent that can make a little noise on their home pitch here. I can't see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton |
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04-06-24 | Voluntari v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Voluntari @ 10:30 AM ET - Petro off a 1-0 win in most recent home match but this was preceded by 4 straight overs at home and those 4 matches as a host averaged 3.5 goals apiece. FC Voluntari has had 3 straight overs in road matches in league action so we are testing a 100% perfect trend here with this picks and have great value with the low total in this one. OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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04-06-24 | Burnley v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #200085: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton vs Burnley @ 10 AM ET - Everton has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches at home. Burnley has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches overall. Also, there have been 0 draws in the last 5 meetings between these teams. In other words, the handwriting is on the wall that this match should get to at least a 2-1 final. Also, Everton has scored 5 goals in the two meetings (one in Carabao Cup) between these clubs this season but Burnley enters this one having scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches and they've scored an average of 1.7 goals during this stretch. Take advantage of the line value with the low total on this one. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 in Burnley's last 6 road matches in league action and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for that streak to reach 7 in a row in this one. OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton |
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04-06-24 | West Ham United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #200073: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton vs West Ham United @ 10 AM ET - The last 13 meetings have each had a victor. No draws. That said, can you expect either team to fail to score here? Not in my estimation and the data supports this as well which is why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. West Ham is known for struggling defensively on the road while Wolverhampton is thrilled to be back home after a lot of away matches of late. So look for an emphasis on attack from the Wolves in this one but also note that they have allowed multiple goals to the Hammers in 2 of the last 3 meetings. Wolverhampton and West Ham both off 1-1 draws but, again, there has not been a draw in any of the last 13 matches. With West Ham allowing 2 goals per match on the road this season and the Wolves allowing 1.5 goals per match on the season, look for at least 2-1 in this one! OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton |
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04-05-24 | Heat -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-) |
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04-05-24 | Flyers +108 v. Sabres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Friday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +105 @ Buffalo Sabres @ 7 ET - Huge playoff implications here. The Flyers are 0-3-2 last 5 games but have only one other 5-game losing streak this season. That one ended at 5 games and this one will too. The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these clubs and the lone exception was the Flyers winning on home ice. Look for the road team trend to continue between these clubs and Philly avoids what would be their longest winning streak of the season. The Sabres sent Levi back to the minors so they are carrying Luukkonen and Comrie as their two goalies right now. Luukkonen has been quite inconsistent of late. He had a recent start that he was pulled before the 9 minute mark so, essentially, his last 5 starts have amount to normal total minutes of 4 starts and over this span of an equivalent 4 starts he has allowed 18 goals - an average of 4.5 goals per 60 minutes! Comrie has played sparingly this season and would be rusty if called upon here and he has a 3.91 GAA on the season. The Flyers have had issues of their own of late but 3 of the 5 teams they lost to (and 2 of those 3 were the OT games) were solid playoff-level teams. The Sabres are a solid team but, for the reasons above, this is the ideal situation to back a Flyers team in a perfect spot to get back on track and at an underdog price. PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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04-05-24 | Phillies -173 v. Nationals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 6:45 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are 2-4 this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start and if Nola had a good first start. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line would have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Nola will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 3.5 runs per game last 4 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as they have given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). Also factor in that Corbin gets the start for the Nationals here and note that he has a 27-57 record since the start of the 2020 season and has an ERA in th 6.00 range since the start of the 2021 season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-05-24 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -62.5 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi vs Farul @ 1:30 ET - Sepsi off a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj but this followed 4 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 matches! Farul is off a 1-0 loss versus FCSB but this followed a 2-1 win over Rapid. Now Farul takes a step down in class to face a Sepsi club they have scored an average of 1.6 goals against in last 5 meetings. However, even though Sepsi is not quite on the level of FCSB or Rapid, they are still a solid club on the attack and will be aggressive on their home pitch after settling for a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj last time out. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi |
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04-05-24 | Botosani v. UTA Arad OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - UTA off a scoreless draw on the road. However, they have been a different club at home in Arad. UTA is on a long 8-match unbeaten run on their home pitch. Also, UTA has seen 5 of last 6 matches at home total at least 3 goals! Those 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Their last 11 matches at home have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Botosani enters this match off a 2-1 win over Iasi and 7 of their last 9 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. We get to at least 3 in this one! OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA |
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04-04-24 | Flames v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames @ 8 ET - Hellebuyck has not been himself for a while now. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of his last 5 starts. Dustin Wolf is expected to start for the Flames here and he has lost 3 straight starts and allowed at least 4 goals in 2 of those. Winnipeg and Calgary have both been struggling and each team should be viewing this game as a great opportunity to get their scoring going. That's because the Jets have allowed about 4 goals per game last 7 games. Also, Calgary has allowed 4 goals per game in their last 7 games. You can see why goals can be expected to fly here. The Flames have scored 10 goals last 3 games. The Jets have scored 3.5 goals per game last 11 home games. OVER 6 in Winnipeg |
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04-04-24 | 76ers +115 v. Heat | Top | 109-105 | Win | 115 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers money line +115 @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - I know the Sixers have some guys questionable for this game but I would not be surprised to see every single one of them on the floor for this game. The reason I say that is because this is a huge game in the playoff picture and, either way (even if some guys miss), I like the way the fill-ins have been playing for the Sixers also and they surge for the win here. This is a key game because Miami is in the #6 spot while Philly currently is in the #8 spot yet the Sixers can move within a half-game of the Heat with a win here. Of course the Sixers would rather avoid the play-in round if possible so that #6 seed is quite coveted. There is a reason this line is priced so low on the Heat even though Embiid, Maxey and Harris are all listed as questionable for the 76ers. Don't let the line fool you. The underdog gets the job done here. No points needed! PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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04-04-24 | Penguins -109 v. Capitals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Pittsburgh Penguins -110 @ Washington Capitals @ 7 ET - Not only has Pittsburgh not given up yet on the season, they have the goalie edge in this huge showdown with Washington Thursday. Nedeljkovic is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts and did not allow more than 3 goals in any of those games. Not only that, Washington's Lindgren is struggling between the pipes of late. The Capitals goalie has allowed at least 5 goals in 2 of this last 3 starts and lost all 3 games! Both teams have been playing well as they make a late-season push for the playoffs but the goalie edge is the key here with the road team in this one. Also, TJ Oshie is out again for the Caps in this one. PITTSBURGH -110 |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall +135 | Top | 77-79 | Win | 135 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NIT Thursday Seton Hall Pirates Money Line +135 vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 7 ET - Both teams are playing very well and I do understand that this game being played in Indiana favors the Sycamores but it is not their home court. Indeed Indiana State is certainly much closer to Indianapolis than Seton Hall of course but I am mentioning all this because I feel we clearly have the value here with the dog on the money line. Why? Because what true justification do the Sycamores have for being favored here? Again, both teams are playing well but Indiana State plays in a Missouri Valley Conference whose other 20-win teams this season were Drake, Bradley and Belmont. Now take at look at the Pirates as Seton Hall plays in the tough Big East Conference. The other 20-win teams in the Big East include UConn, Marquette, Creighton, St John's and Providence. I am not at all knocking or fully writing off the accomplishments of Indiana State. I am just saying that when it comes to being battle tested by some of the toughest teams in the land, I feel the Pirates have the edge in that department and this will be key here! Both teams beat some quality teams in the NIT to get to this point but I am hanging my hat on the long-term here with the Pirates and the Big East competition they had to deal with all season long. In fact, other than two horrible downtrodden programs - Georgetown and DePaul, I would say the rest of the Big East (so I am talking about 9 teams!) is as tough as every single team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Give me the underdog here. No points needed. SETON HALL +135 |
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04-04-24 | Manchester United v. Chelsea OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League Thursday OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea vs Manchester United @ 3:15 ET - Chelsea is on a long streak of high-scoring matches. Each of their last 5 matches across all competitions have gone over the total and all of them totaled at least 4 goals and averaged 5 goals apiece. With the defensive struggles the Blues have been having I look for Manchester United to get on the board multiple times in this match. Note also that Man U has had its own share of defensive struggles as well! Manchester United just allowed an insane 31 shot attempts in their match with Brentford and it was incredible that only 5 of them were shots on goal for the Bees and only 1 found the back of the net. In any event, Man U was outplayed in the 1-1 draw and more of the same likely on tap here in terms of conceding shots. Not only is Man U on the road, they also had allowed 2 goals per match in their 3 most recent matches prior to the 1-1 draw with the Bees. Chelsea twice blew a 1-goal lead to 10-man Burnley in a ugly display and I expect the Blues to respond with a strong emphasis on the attack here after not putting the hammer down against Burnley. The result will be plenty of goals here as Man U has plenty of attacking weapons as well but continues to have defensive liabilities of their own. OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea |
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04-04-24 | Sheffield United v. Liverpool OVER 4 | Top | 1-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #200041: English Premier League Thursday OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool vs Sheffield United @ 2:30 ET - Big total but Liverpool is going to open up the floodgates of a porous Blades defense in this one. The other noteworthy fact however is that Sheffield United is continuing to score goals quite well and the Reds have consistently been allowing goals in their matches. Clean sheets for Liverpool have been ultra rare and they are favored on the goal line at -3 goals in this one! That said, I am forecasting a 4-1 type final here and we cash in even on the bigger number of 4 in the marketplace on this one. 10 of Sheffield's last 11 matches have totaled at least 4 goals and those 10 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Don't let the big number on this total scare you away. Liverpool is on their home pitch and ready for a breakout performance after a low-scoring 2-1 win featured a lot of missed opportunities and followed a 4 match stretch in which the Reds scored an average of 4 goals per match. They get at least 4 here again and I projected at least a 4-1 final in this one. OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool |
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04-03-24 | Canucks v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Arizona Coyotes vs Vancouver Canucks @ 10 ET - The Canucks will be ready to respond off the 6-3 loss at Vegas. However, Vancouver is in a B2B spot and the Canucks are still without #1 goalie Demko. The #2 guy DeSmith went last night and struggled as he gave up all 6 goals. Tonight it will be the #3 guy Silovs. Though he allowed just 2 goals in his only NHL start this season, it was last week against a Ducks team that has been struggling mightily. He has only played in 6 NHL games in his career and the Coyotes are known for being tougher on home ice. Also, Arizona has been scoring goals like crazy of late. The Coyotes have scored at least 5 goals in 3 straight games and also have averaged 4 goals scored in their last 8 games! Arizona continues to be hot and had won 5 of 7 games before a loss to a very strong Rangers team. The Coyotes continue to struggle defensively and in goal when facing playoff level teams. They have allowed 5 goals per game in their last 4 games against playoff teams. More of the same here and the goals fly in this one. OVER 6 in Arizona |
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04-03-24 | Magic v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-) |
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04-03-24 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have scored just 2 runs in each of the last two games - both losses - versus the Cardinals. However, they will take advantage of facing Zach Thompson here. The Cardinals southpaw has allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his only start this season. He was rocked for 3 homers in that game. San Diego will see their bats wake up as a result in this one. Keep in mind the Padres scored an average of 8.6 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding that. The Cardinals have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 4 games and they should stay hot at the plate here as well. St Louis will take advantage of facing a struggling Joe Musgrove. The Padres right-hander has been hit hard in both his starts this season and has given up 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings. More of the same here and we take advantage of the rather low total posted here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego |
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04-03-24 | Aston Villa v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #200045: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City vs Aston Villa @ 3:15 ET - I am aware of the injury issues here that relate to each club but I am looking for City to be very aggressive on the attack after the cagey 0-0 draw in the big showdown with Arsenal this past weekend. It is not often that City gets shutout at home and I expect a very aggressive attack from the hosts in this one. That will force Aston Villa to be aggressive if they have any hopes of staying close to City throughout this match so, despite some injury issues, do not be surprised if Villa score well in this one too as Man City does have some injury issues impacting their defense as well. City was scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match this season prior to the scoreless draw with the Gunners. Aston Villa is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season. I am expecting a 3-2 or at least 3-1 type match here as City responds big but will also not deliver a clean sheet either. OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City |
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04-03-24 | Luton Town v. Arsenal OVER 4 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Rotation #200009: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal vs Luton Town @ 2:30 ET - Luton Town lost 4-3 versus Arsenal when they hosted them earlier this season. They also, despite injury issues, enter this match on a solid scoring run. Luton Town continues to give up goals in bunches but they also have scored in 18 straight matches! For a club that is threatened by relegation, that is an impressive result for sure. The problem for Luton Town is, even though they are averaging 1.4 goals scored per match this season, they have allowed 2.5 goals per match when away from home. Arsenal comes into this one off a frustrating scoreless draw with Manchester City so they will be in full-on attack mode here on their home pitch I am sure. Note that Arsenal has scored 2.4 goals per match this season and Luton has allowed 3 goals per match in last 5 EPL matches away from home. Arsenal is a heavy favorite in the goal line range of -3 and that makes sense to me as a 4-1 final would not surprise me in the least. Luton Town scores for the 19th EPL match in a row but they will not be able to stop the Gunners as the hosts will be on the attack throughout after a scoreless draw in the tough showdown with Manchester City. OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8 -115 in Oakland vs Boston @ 9:40 ET - A's were shutout yesterday but scored 11 runs in the 3 games prior to that and their 4-3 win is the only game this season in which totals runs have not reached an 8. I like the value because I like the Athletics bats to bounce back off the shutout loss just like they did with 4 runs in a 6-4 loss after they were shutout in their season opener. Also, the A's have allowed 7.6 runs per game this season and though I think they will hit Bello - he has a 4.35 ERA in his career. Also, Oakland will get hit as Wood struggled badly in his first start this season and he also has only had one decent season since his big years with the Dodgers ended all the way back in 2018. The Red Sox faced some tough Seattle pitching to open the season but will really get the bats going here in Oakland just like they did last night. OVER 8 -115 in Oakland |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall OVER 145 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday OVER the total in Seton Hall Pirates vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 9:30 ET - The Bulldogs and Pirates are both rolling and scoring well. Both teams allowing in the mid-70s as well this season when they are on the road and this one is in Indiana. Neutral site venue and again, away from home this season both teams have certainly not been strong defensively. Couple that with both teams coming in rolling with confidence on the offensive end and you have a solid match-up for expecting big points here. The Pirates have scored, not including OT of course, 78 ppg last 5 games. Also, Seton Hall has allowed 83 ppg in last 5 games away from home including 91 at MSG against the Red Storm. As for Georgia, they have scored 75 ppg last 6 games and allowed 76 ppg last 6 games. This one had mid 150s written all over it but we are dealing with a posted total in the 145 range so we will grab the huge line value here. OVER the total in Seton Hall |
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04-02-24 | Senators v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6 in Minnesota Wild vs Ottawa Senators @ 8 ET - Fleury getting the start for the Wild and he has struggled badly in each of his last two starts. Korpisalo starting for the Senators and he has been better of late but having a tough overall season and I look for plenty of goals here. This one has upset potential for Ottawa but Minnesota should score well at home also in this one. The Senators have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 4.2 goal during this hot streak. The Wild off a 2-1 OT loss at home but scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 8 home games before that one. With that said, the goals should fly in this one. Minnesota had scored at least 3 goals in 6 of 8 home games before the loss to the Golden Knights. Ottawa off B2B low-scoring wins but this followed 7 straight games totaling at least 7 goals. More of the same here and great value with this total at 6 goals. OVER 6 in Minnesota |
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04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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04-02-24 | Tottenham Hotspur v. West Ham United OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United vs Tottenham @ 3:15 ET - Tottenham has scored an average of 2 goals in last 6 meetings between these clubs. I know this is a big total at 3.5 but last week the Hotspur match with Luton Town had a total of 4 goals posted and it should have got there. It was crazy that the match ended 2-1. Look for Tottenham to cash in more of their opportunities here but the Hammers will be tough also. Looks like West Ham will not have their #1 goalkeeper so that helps the over here. What also helps is that West Ham is on their home pitch and the Hammers have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 matches across all competitions. This looks like a match set up well to get to at least 2-2 and a 3-2 final is the type of match I am expecting here. Tottenham L9 road matches have averaged 4 goals and this one should get to at least that as well. OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United |
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04-02-24 | Crystal Palace v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #200013: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace @ 2:45 ET - Crystal Palace has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches in EPL action. They have averaged 1.5 goals during this stretch. Also, Crystal Palace is off B2B draws but this followed 10 of 12 EPL matches totaling at least 3 goals! Take advantage of the low total of 2.5 goals here as Bournemouth scored at least 2 goals in all 4 matches last month. The over is a perfect 3-0 last 3 Bournemouth matches. OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth |
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04-02-24 | Fulham v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham @ 2:30 ET - Due to the long-term low-scoring results in Nottingham Forest matches, we get line value here. The fact is that the aggressiveness of Fulham is not going to allow a low-scoring result here and we take advantage of the line value of this total at just 2.5 goals. Not only did the first meeting between these clubs end 5-0 Fulham, the last two meetings at Nottingham Forest have each totaled at least 4 goals. Also, each of the last 8 Fulham matches - all of them in February and March - have all totaled at least 3 goals! A perfect 8-0 run to the over that reaches 9 in a row once this match goes into the books! OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest |
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04-01-24 | Celtics v. Hornets OVER 217 | Top | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Hornets scored 118 points yesterday but also allowed 130! Charlotte is now hosting a Boston team off a low-scoring win but, prior to that win, the Celtics had allowed an average of 115 ppg (not including OT) in their 3 games leading into that one. Boston has been scoring well as they averaging 120.5 ppg (not including OT) in their last dozen games. Celtics have gone 10-2 in this stretch and will be willing to play at a faster pace and keep the scoring up against a downtrodden Hornets team. Charlotte has actually scored an average of 109 ppg in their last 12 home games. So don't be surprised if this game, given the above numbers, gets into the 120-105 range at least! That said, with this total in the 217 to 218 range as of early game day morning, there is no hesitation in getting involved here. OVER the total in Charlotte |
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04-01-24 | Islanders v. Flyers -113 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Monday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - Huge game in the post-season landscape and a divisional battle. I like the home ice edge here. Yes the Flyers are off an embarrassing 5-1 home loss to the Blackhawks but this followed having won 8 of last 12 games played on home ice. Conversely, the Islanders are not winning on the road. They truly are not winning anywhere right now. New York enters this one having lost 8 of 10 games overall and 5 of last 6 on the road. The Flyers stop the bleeding here and they are getting a little healthier on defense. They will also respond on the offensive side of the ice after a rare tough performance on home ice versus Chicago. This is a bargain price for home ice when you consider the Isles recent road struggles. Huge game, small price due to recent events and that means extraordinary line value with this one in the -115 range. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |