Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9) I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon. I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC. Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot. New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9! |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1) I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots. I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady. I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race. I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career. There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg. Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1! |
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11-18-18 | Texans -3 v. Redskins | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3) I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight. Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season. I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook. It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense. The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs. With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3! |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3) I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week. The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback. He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks. Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders. The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3! |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -7 | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7) I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot. I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week. I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run. I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke. Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field. I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home. I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7! |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +6.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5) I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games. I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen. I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter). I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road. More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5! |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | Top | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 92 h 4 m | Show |
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3) I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff). There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great. Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense. The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one. I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football. I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going. If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5) I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game. With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points. In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards. I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg). Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs. I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5! |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road. New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5. I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5! |
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11-04-18 | Texans +1 v. Broncos | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1) I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here. Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams. The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is. All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room. Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team. I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town. Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1! |
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10-29-18 | Patriots -13.5 v. Bills | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
40* PATRIOTS/BILLS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -13.5) I'll take my chances here laying the big number with New England on the road. History is going to suggest that you take the big division home dog here, but history hasn’t seen an offense as bad as what Buffalo will put on display for Monday Night Football. The Bills are on pace to finish this season with the worst offensive efficiency we have ever seen. It’s not easy beating a team in the NFL by two touchdowns on the road, but I just don’t know how you can trust this Bills team to keep this within 13 points. If this were an early Sunday kickoff, I might consider rolling the dice with Buffalo, but no way is Tom Brady and the Patriots not showing up for the bright lights of Monday Night Football. On top of that, New England has consistently been the team that has overcome these key situational trends under Brady and Belichick. They have also won 3 straight in the series by at least 16 points. I just don’t know how the Bills can keep this one competitive. New England’s offense is clicking right now. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in 3 straight games. If they hit that mark here, Buffalo would need to score 25 to cover. The Bills have scored 25 or more just once this season. Chances are they will struggle to just score 20, as they have failed to simply reach 14 points in 5 of their 7 games. With Josh Allen sidelined, Buffalo is likely to go with Derek Anderson again, but I’m not so sure he’s a much better option than Nathan Peterman, which says a lot given how atrocious Peterman has been. I know the Bills are going to get up for this game and the home fans will be pumped up for prime time, but there’s simply a massive edge in both talent on the field and in coaching that I would have to roll the dice with the Patriots. Give me New England -13.5! |
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10-28-18 | Colts -3 v. Raiders | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Colts -3) I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a field goal at Oakland. I think a lot of people will hesitate to back Indy here as a road favorite, as they are just 2-5 on the season. The key thing here for me, is I don't trust this Raiders team to show up. Oakland has been in the media for all the wrong reasons of late. There's rumors out there that not everyone is a fan of starting quarterback Derek Carr and management keeps trading away their best players. First it was Khalil Mack, now it's wide out Amari Cooper. On top of all that, this team wasn't that good to start with and that's evident by their 1-5 record, which includes losses by 15 or more to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks. As for the Colts, injuries have really kept this team from reaching it's full potential, but I think we saw just how good they can be in last week's 37-5 win over Buffalo. Andrew Luck is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in the game and they got a lot of good young talent on the defensive side of the ball. I just think Luck is going to be able to have his way with the Raiders defense and Oakland will struggle to keep pace. Give me the Colts -3! |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals -3.5 | 34-37 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -3.5) I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati as a small home favorite. I believe this is an ideal get right spot for the Bengals, who have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field after how bad they played in last week's loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. I was all over Kansas City in that game, as I just thought it was really tough spot for the Bengals coming off that devastating loss at home to the Steelers and having to face one of the best teams in the league in prime time on the road. They aren't going to be the last team to get whooped by Kansas City in Arrowhead this season. As much as I loved going against Cincinnati in that game, I love the Bengals in this spot. Not only are we going to get a max effort, but we are getting a very favorable price to back them. The biggest problem for the Bengals in their last two games has been the play of their offense. I don't see that trend continuing against this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are giving up a ridiculous 40.7 ppg and 458 yards/game on the road this season. Their defense ranks dead last against the pass, giving up 327.5 ypg. While they are 6th against the run, they just lost one of their best linebackers, Kwon Alexander to a season-ending ACL injury and both starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Vinny Curry are listed as questionable. As for the Bucs offense, it's got some nice weapons in the passing game, but they have zero threat of a running game and Jameis Winston continues to take horrible care of the football. Winston has played in just 3 games and has already thrown 6 interceptions. The Bucs as a whole have turned it over 13 times in their last 4 games and forced just two turnovers during that stretch. Simply put this is not a team you want to back on the road. Tampa Bay is just 3-8-1 ATS in there last 12 road games and are also a mere 3-9-1 in their last 14 off a non-cover. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 at home, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of their last two games. Give me the Bengals -3.5! |
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10-28-18 | Ravens v. Panthers +3 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3) I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road. For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away. Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball. I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3! |
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10-22-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5) For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg. Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games. Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one. I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright. The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5! |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss. As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach. With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back. The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled. Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball. As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5! |
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10-21-18 | Patriots -2.5 v. Bears | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NFL EARLY BIRD VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Patriots -2.5) I'll take my chances with the Patriots laying less than a field goal on the road against the Bears. I just don't know how you don't take New England at this price, no matter the circumstances. I know that the Pats will likely be without Gronkowski, but with Josh Gordon becoming more and more of a factor in the offense and how Brady can pick teams apart with Julian Edelman and his backs coming out of the backfield, I think New England's offense will be able to do enough to get the win. The key here is I think Bill Belichick and that Patriots defense is going to make life miserable for Mitch Trubisky. If you take away the 6 TD performance against an awful Bucs defense, Trubisky has just 5 TD passes in his other 4 games combined. I just think he's a very limited quarterback at this point in his career and with the way NE can disguise their defense, I think he's going to cost this team a chance to win. I love this Bears defense, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. Chicago's defense is really good, but they also have played a really easy schedule. Their 5 games have been against the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs and Dolphins. Green Bay is maybe the only potential playoff team out of that bunch. This is a big step up in class and I'm taking the team laying less than a field goal that has the far superior quarterback and coach. Give me the Patriots -2.5! |
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10-21-18 | Bills v. Colts -7 | 5-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Colts -7) I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a touchdown at home against the Bills. I think the only thing that is keeping this line from being more is the fact that Indianapolis comes into this game at just 1-5. The thing is, if you have watched the Colts, you know they are better than their record. They have a couple of losses where they blew leads and others where they just missed out on a chance to win late. Not to mention they have had a difficult schedule to start the year with 4 of their first 6 on the road. The good thing about the Colts being 1-5, is we can bank on them laying it all on the line at home in this game, as they have to feel like their season is on the line with this game. A loss here and it's time to start thinking about next year. I expect them to step up to the challenge and deliver in a big way. I think due to the Colts struggles defensively, people are just assuming the Bills are going to be able to put up points. I'm not buying it. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson at quarterback, who they just signed a couple weeks ago and hasn't started in the NFL since 2016. There's going to be zero chemistry with that offense and it's already one of the least talented units in the league. Buffalo has scored fewer than 14 points in 4 of their 6 games. Give me the Colts -7! |
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10-21-18 | Panthers v. Eagles -5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5) I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games. I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest. I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts. I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals. I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week. More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5. |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9) I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win. It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them). I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg. With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake. It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9! |
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10-14-18 | Ravens -2.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg. They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5! |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -3 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -3) I'll take my chances here with KC as a slim 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville. All the talk this week is going to be around can Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense continue to put up big numbers against what everyone believes is the best defense in the league. I believe he can. After what we saw last week against the Broncos, who have a pretty good defense of their own and the game being played in Denver in front of an electric crowd, there’s no way I’m betting against this kid and this team right now. One of the things that can really frustrate a good defense is a mobile quarterback, who can make plays on the run. Time after time against the Broncos, Mahomes scrambled and made big plays on the run. He did so with a very poor game from his offensive line, though I think their struggles were in large part because of all the noise from an electric Denver home crowd. I also think watching this Jaguars defense that you can exploit them deep and Mahomes certainly has the ability to stretch a defense. I know the numbers for the Jaguars defense are off the charts and it’s clearly a talented bunch, but they have faced two immobile quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Tom Brady, a hobbled Marcus Mariota and a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Not to mention, none of those teams have the kind of playmakers that the Chiefs have at their disposal. Throw in the creativity that comes with a Andy Reid offense and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahomes and the Chiefs just kept rolling. The biggest thing that is going to hinder people from taking Kansas City is their defense, which has not been very good to this point. However, I think the defense isn’t as atrocious as a lot of people think. They have played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. A Kyle Shanahan offense led by a really good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and a greatly improved Broncos offense under Case Keenum. Not to mention, only one of those games came at home and the one game that was at home the defense played great early and the Chiefs had a 35-10 lead at the half. It’s no secret that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and that noise can really help the defense out. Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Jaguars have played 3 of their first 4 games on the road. The only game away from home was in Week 1 at New York and the offense for Jacksonville wasn’t all that great, scoring just 13 points (defense had a pick six) and managed 305 yards. Adding to this, the Jaguars are a mere 13-33 on the road with Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback and just 5-22 as a road dog. With a spread of just 3-points, we are basically picking the winner here. Give me the Chiefs -3! |
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10-07-18 | Falcons v. Steelers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons. Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh. I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts. You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation. Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh. As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3! |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10) I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation. We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri. Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston. New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start. Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10! |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close. The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid. Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs. It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series. The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter. They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5! |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | 33-18 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Giants +3.5) I'll take my chances here with the Giants getting more than a field goal at home. I just feel the Saints are way overvalued here. New Orleans is lucky to not be 0-3 right now. They lost as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1 to the Bucs, were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home in Week 2 and had to score in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime at Atlanta. The thing is, New Orleans was super-hyped coming into the season and while they are lucky to be sitting at 2-1, the public won’t be able to help themselves with the Saints laying such a short number against a Giants team that hasn’t looked great. I just don’t know how you trust this Saints team on the road in this spot. This feels like a must-win game for the Giants and the fact that they are a home dog will only add more fuel to the fire. As for New Orleans, I think that game against the Falcons took a lot out of this team. We just saw Minnesota and Green Bay struggle to play well after their overtime affair and I think it will be a similar struggle for the Saints. A lackluster offensive showing in Weeks 1-2 really hurt the Giants, but they got on track this past Sunday against the Texans. Eli Manning played his best game of the year, completing 25 of 29 for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie running back Saquan Barkley also had a big impact, rushing for 82 yards and a score, plus had 5 catches for 35 yards. I think they build on that performance against a struggling Saints defense. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 336.7 ypg. The only reason they aren’t last, is because they got to play the Browns while Tyrod Taylor was still their quarterback. Taylor couldn’t complete a 5-yard pass agains the Jets, yet he went 22 of 30 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. The Giants defense is unlikely to keep Brees and the Saints offense from scoring, but New Orleans typically isn’t as efficient offensively on the road, especially when the game is played outdoors. I think the Giants will be able to get off the field enough to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but to win it outright. Take New York +3.5! |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Raiders -2.5) I'll take my chances laying less than a field goal with the Raiders at home. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Oakland in this spot. The Raiders have no one but themselves to blame for their 0-3 start, but they certainly aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record. This team could easily be 2-1 and I think there’s no way they aren’t more than a field goal favorite in that scenario. Either way, Oakland has to feel like this is a must-win game to keep their season alive. I also think the hype around the Browns, especially with how good Mayfield looked in his debut, has Cleveland overvalued right now. Yes, the Browns have a good defense and there’s no denying that Mayfield looked like a massive upgrade of Taylor, but that win was against the Jets. I like the direction Cleveland is going, but they are at least a year away from being a team you can count on to deliver away from home. That’s the biggest thing here for me. As good as Mayfield looked, he was fortunate to not have a couple passes intercepted. Unlike Taylor, who really values the football (arguably too much), Mayfield is going to take chances. I think it’s going to lead to a lot of turnovers and it’s really hard to win in this league when you lose the turnover battle, especially on the road. Let’s also not forget the Jets went into that game with a game-plan for Taylor at quarterback not Mayfield. The biggest concern here is without a doubt the Raiders offense up against the Browns defense. Cleveland’s stop unit is greatly improved, but they could be down potentially 3 starters in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Christian Kirksey (LB) and Damarious Randall (FS). All of which are listed as questionable on the injury report. I also think this Raiders offense is poised for a breakout performance. Oakland comes in 28th in the NFL in scoring at 17.3 ppg, but are 6th in the NFL at 400.7 ypg. Derek Carr has Oakland 6th in the league in passing at 302 ypg and they are right in the middle of the pack on the ground (98.7 ypg). Look for this unit to get on track Sunday and don’t be surprised if they aren’t aided by some short fields, which should lead to quick scores and ultimately them covering the spread. Give me the Raiders -2.5! |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5) I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way. The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8). As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston. The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt. I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover. Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5! |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 102 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-23-18 | 49ers v. Chiefs -6 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4) I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed. I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin. The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19. You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4. |
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09-16-18 | Raiders +7 v. Broncos | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7) I think the Broncos are getting a little too much respect for a win over what I believe is a Seahawks team that isn’t all that great outside of Russell Wilson. I would be shocked if Seattle ended up in the playoffs this year. On the flip side of this, I think people are writing off Oakland after a 20-point home loss to the Rams. I actually thought the Raiders played well in that game. The Rams are just loaded with talent and are going to do that to a lot of teams this year. I was impressed with the 395 total yards that Oakland racked up against LA, as they actually outgained the Rams by 30 yards on the game. I know the Broncos defense looked great, but they had such a big advantage in the trenches with all the talent they have up front and Seattle having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr was only sacked once by a Rams front that features arguably the two best defensive tackles in the game. They are going to be primed for Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush. Another factor here that has me thinking the spread is a little high here, is the fact that only once in the last 3 seasons (6 meetings) have the Broncos beat Oakland by more than 6-points. That one doesn’t really count in my book, as that was back in Week 17 of the 2016 season where the Raiders were without Carr after he broke his leg the previous week. I know it’s a new team with Gruden, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a double-digit loss at home (I think a lot of teams perform well in this spot, as they are highly motivated and a little undervalued on the line). A lot of people think Denver has a big home field edge, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. I’ll gladly take my chances with the Raiders, who I believe are a live dog in this one. Give me Oakland +7. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -6 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Falcons -6) I think Atlanta is flying under the radar going into Week 2, while I think people are overreacting to the Panthers Week 1 win. Even after scoring just 12 points against the Eagles, I have high expectations for this Falcons’ offense going forward. That Eagles defense is one of the best in the league and while the Panthers are typically strong defensively, they don’t pose the same caliber a pass rush or talent in the secondary. It’s also worth noting that Carolina is still without one of their top linebackers in Thomas Davis, who was suspended for the first 4 games and star middle linebacker Luke Keuchly figures to be playing this at less than 100% after hyper-extending his knee late in the win over Dallas. I’m also not buying the great defensive showing by Carolina in Week 1. The Cowboys offense was a complete mess. For whatever reason Dallas wanted to drop Prescott back and throw to that lackluster receiving corps instead of feeding their best player in Ezekiel Elliott, who had just 15 carries. It’s going to be night and day for the Panthers defense when they line up against the Falcons and all the weapons they have on the field. Not to mention Atlanta’s offense is built for playing inside a dome, where the Panthers defense is best suited on a grass or turf playing surface. Not only has the home team covered 5 of the last 6 meetings, but Matt Ryan is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts against the Panthers and has averaged 333 passing yards in those games. As for Cam Newton, he’s posted some of his worst numbers in Atlanta. He’s completed just 53% of his attempts and averaged a mere 150 passing ypg in his last 5 on the road vs the Falcons. I am aware of the Falcons losing two of their best defensive players in Deion Jones and Keenu Neal, but I still like Dan Quinn’s defense in this one. Carolina has been hit hard with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, most notably the offensive line. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, right tackle Daryl Williams is doubtful and guard Trea Turner is in the concussion protocol. Keep in mind they let All-Pro Andrew Norwell leave in free agency and did little to replace him. They also lost Newton’s favorite target in Greg Olson to a serious foot injury. Add in the fact that the Falcons are going to be the more hungry team, as they are the ones trying to avoid the 0-2 start, and that Atlanta has had 3 more days to prepare and I think this one could get ugly in favor of the home. Give me the Falcons -6. |
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09-16-18 | Texans -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
50* NFL 'AFC SOUTH' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texans -3) I played against the Titans in their Week 1 loss at Miami and I believe that is just the start of what's going to be a really tough year for Tennessee. The Titans were by far the worst team to make the playoffs last year and it simply has them getting way too much respect coming into 2018 and the books are slow to adjust on teams the first couple weeks of the season. Houston lost their opener at New England, but that's a loss you can live with, as it's never easy going up against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they have had weeks to prepare for you. I look for Deshaun Watson and that Houston offense to bounce back in a big way in this one. Miami's Ryan Tannehill picked apart the Titans secondary, going 20 of 28 for 230 yards and 2 scores. The Dolphins don't have near the weapons that Houston does. The Titans offense wasn't very good and it doesn't figure to be any better against what I think is an elite Texans defense. Marcus Mariota is banged up (expected to split reps with Blaine Gabbert), their best weapon on the outside, Delanie Walker is now on IR and both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan aren't expected to play. I think this one could get ugly. Give me the Texans -3! |
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09-16-18 | Chargers -7 v. Bills | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game. I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1. The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7! |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
40* RAVENS/BENGALS TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bengals +1.5) As good as Baltimore looked against the Bills, a lot of that had to do with just how bad Buffalo is, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Nathan Peterman is not an NFL quarterback and it’s crazy the Bills went into a season with him as their starter. He was 5 of 18 for 24 yards and threw two interceptions before getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Allen. I look for the Ravens defense to have a much tougher time against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Dalton was sharp against the Colts, completing 21 of 28 for 243 yards and we got a taste of just how dynamic running back Joe Mixon could be this year. Mixon had 95 rushing yards on just 17 attempts and caught 5 passes for 54 yards. Cincinnati also had to be happy with the pay of tight end Tyler Effect, who had 3 catches for 44 yards. It’s not just all about stopping A.J. Green. The offensive numbers for Baltimore were solid, but a lot of that had to do with the Bills’ offense not being able to sustain a drive. Buffalo didn’t get a first down until the 3rd quarter. While Joe Flacco threw for 236 yards and 3 scores, the Ravens running game struggled to get going. Baltimore had just 117 yards on 34 attempts for just 3.4 yards/carry and that was with Lamar Jackson accounting for 39 yards on 7 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). Cincinnati’s defense struggled to contain Luck on the road, but I think that will be the case for most defenses when they travel to Indy. They were much better against the run, allowing just 75 yards on 22 attempts. I think if they can slow down Baltimore’s ground game, they can get after Flacco and make things difficult on the Ravens offense. Say what you want about Dalton, but he’s 24-13 ATS as a starter at home, including an impressive 7-1 ATS mark when his team is listed as a home dog. As for Flacco, he’s just 5-7 ATS as a road favorite and 3-6 ATS in 9 meetings against the Bengals with Marvin Lewis as the head coach. Give me Cincinnati +1.5! |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -7 | 48-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -7) There's a lot of people who are excited about the Jets with rookie Sam Darnold at quarterback, but I just have to go with Detroit at home in this one. Darnold is talented, but has a long way to go. I just don't trust his decision making and think he's going to have a difficult time playing well on the road in what's going to be a very hostile environment. My biggest concern here is the Jets not being able to run the ball effectively, which is really going to put the pressure on Darnold. I also think New York's defense is going to have a really tough time slowing down Stafford and that Lions offense. Stafford has a ton of weapons at his disposal and I love the addition of LeGarrette Blount to help in short-yardage situations, an area they really struggled with in past years. I also think rookie Kerryon Johnson could be a difference-maker. The Jets will be without starting safety Marcus Made, as well as starting linebacker Josh Martin. Two big losses. I also don't think NY did much to improve a dreadful pass rush that finished 28th in the league last year in sacks. Give me the Lions -7! |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Cowboys +3) With all the hype around the Eagles off their Super Bowl and the Giants getting Saquon Barkley, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Dallas in the NFC East. The Cowboys won 9 games last year despite Zeke missing almost half the season and he just wasn't the same guy with all the off the field shit he had to deal with. People are going to say Prescott has no one to throw to after the loss of Dez Byrant and Jason Witten. While Witten's departure is a big one, Bryant was a cancer in that locker room. I think Prescott will be much better taking what the defense gives him and he's going to have his chances with how much teams will have to load the box to stop the run. Carolina's got some big injuries up front on the offensive line and this Dallas defense is young and talented. I think the Cowboys go into Carolina and get the win. Give me Dallas +3! |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1) I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1! |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Vikings -6.5) I'm not buying all the hype around Jimmy G and the 49ers going into 2018. I'm not saying he isn't going to be a great quarterback, but let's not get carried away with how a bad team finished strong. I think 49ers still have a long way to go in terms of talent to compete with the top teams in this league and Minnesota might just be the most talented team in the NFC. One thing is for sure, the Vikings have an elite defense and I expect them to show out at home against SF. I also think people are underestimating the addition of Kirk Cousins. The guy is a legit quarterback and is finally going to play on a team that can run the football and get stops on the defensive side of the ball. I don't think it's asking a lot for Minnesota to win by a touchdown. Note they won by an average of double-digits at home last year. Give me the Vikings -6.5! |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Dolphins +2) No way should the Titans be favored on the road here. Tennessee is getting way too much after making the playoffs last year. The Titans were no where near as good as their record would indicate and might be the worst team in their own division with Andrew Luck back in Indy. It's going to be hot and humid in Miami on Sunday and that's a big edge for the Dolphins, who I think are flying under the radar. Last year was a lost cause for Miami when starting QB Ryan Tannehill was lost before the season ever started. Tannehill has looked sharp in the preseason and this is a team that won 10-games in 2016 with him as the starter. Give me the Dolphins +2! |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs. The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season. I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason. I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round. I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5! |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4) As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game. On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles) filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz). I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more. I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent. The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games. Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski. As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before. Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars +9 v. Patriots | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 7 m | Show |
50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9) I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats. The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5. Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk. I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 68 h 36 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5) I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game. It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers. I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals. I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two. Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game. Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5! |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
40* TITANS/PATS DIV ROUND ATS KNOCKOUT (Pats -13) Tennessee was gifted a win in KC this past weekend, as the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead into the half and didn't score again. I believe the only reason the Titans were able to get back in that game was the injury (concussion) suffered by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He's such a big part of their offense and clearly was a problem for Tennessee, as he had 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets midway through the 2nd quarter. New England has arguably a better version of Kelce in Gronk, not to mention the best quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady. I think the Patriots are going to carve up this Titans defense and put close to 40 on the board. I also think the New England defense is going to do a much better job of shutting down Henry and not letting Mariota get out in space. Two things the Chiefs struggled with. I just don't see the Tennessee being able to keep pace offensively in this one and won't be able to keep this within 3 scores. Give me the Patriots -13! |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NFL AFC WILD CARD ATS KNOCKOUT (Bills +9) I'm just not a believer in the Jaguars and simply don't think they should be laying almost double-digits against the Bills. It's rare that a team struggles the way Jacksonville did in their finale two games and they just turn it on in the playoffs. The Jags are also not a team that's built to win via a blowout. They want to run the football and rely on their defense. I just don't trust Bortles in the postseason and think the Bills can get some offense going with their ability to run the football. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Buffalo won this game outright. Give me the Bills +9! |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Chiefs -8) I think we are getting a great price here on the Chiefs laying single digits at home against the Titans. I think the public is still a bit cautious with laying this big a number on Kansas City given their midseason struggles. Not me. This team returned to that elite form that had them start out 5-0 and more than anything they are the far superior team in this game. Tennessee is only in the postseason because of how poor the AFC was as a whole and are a team that has really struggled to play well on the road. The last time they faced a legit team on the road was the Steelers back in November and they got annihilated 40-17. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and it goes to a whole different level when it's a big game like this. The atmosphere in KC is going to be electric and outside of the Steelers the Chiefs have owned teams in this spot. Give me the Chiefs -8! |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9) I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards. Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here. Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries. Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9! |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5) I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks. The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson. While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright. This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson. Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5! |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +4.5) Even though the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, this is still far from a public team and they certainly aren’t going to be the popular side in this one. That’s because the Jaguars have twice as many wins as San Francisco and are rolling right now. Jacksonville has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall with the most recent being a 38-point thrashing of the Texans. I think it’s a perfect storm for the 49ers to not only cover at home, but win this game outright. I know there’s a lot still at stake for the Jaguars, but I think this is an ideal letdown spot for them. They just clinched their first playoff appearance in 10-years. That’s something the players certainly celebrated. Keep in mind that even with a loss here they could win the division if the struggling Titans lose at home to red-hot Rams. Even if Tennessee were to pull off the upset, Jacksonville could clinch the division with a win the next week at the Titans. Another thing here that I think is getting overlooked with the Jaguars is that 5 of their 6 wins during their 6-1 stretch have come at home. The lone loss was on the road against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been playing well and are decimated with injuries. Like that game against Arizona, this contest against the 49ers comes a long way from home, which will only make it that much harder on this team. The other big thing for me is that I don’t think you can treat the 49ers like a 5-10 team. They are a perfect 3-0 with Garoppolo at quarterback and he’s looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start at Chicago, he then threw for 334 yards at Houston and capped it off last week with 381 yards against the Titans. He’s got this entire franchise in a frenzy with his play. More than anything, he’s given the rest of this team a reason to be excited and that’s a big reason why we have seen this team play so well despite having nothing to play for. Keep in mind that the 49ers had 5 losses early in the year by 3-points or less. You have to believe that had Garoppolo been the starter the entire way in 2017, the perception of this team would be a lot different, as they would likely be sitting at at least 8-6 right now. I think that 49ers team might actually be favored here against the Jags, so it’s easy to see the value with the current line. Give me San Francisco +4.5! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Titans +7) As much as I like this Rams team, I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line based of LA’s result last week at Seattle. Keep in mind that the Rams caught the Seahawks at the perfect time, as they were without their top two linebacker in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, on top of already being without the likes of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman. What can’t be overlooked is just how big a game that was for the Rams in their quest for winning the NFC West title. I think there’s a decent chance we see Los Angeles suffer a letdown here on the road against the Titans, especially given that there’s no pressure for them to win this game. Even with a loss they can secure up the division at home next week against the 49ers. At the same time, there’s a good chance the Seahawks lose at Dallas, which would also do the trick. On the flip side of this, this couldn’t be a much bigger game for the Titans, who simply can’t afford a loss with where they are sitting in the standings. At the same time, you can’t overreact to the fact that Tennessee is coming off back-to-back losses at Arizona and San Francisco, who are two teams out of the playoff picture. The Titans simply are a different team at home than they are on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home compared to just 3-5 on the road. The last time the Titans lost on their home field was Week 1 against the Raiders. While the Rams aren’t just a team that relies on their ability to run the football, they are at their best offensively when Gurley is picking up big yards on the ground. I think that makes this a good matchup for Tennessee, as the strength of their defense is stopping the run. The Titans are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just 87 rushing yards/game and are even better at home, where they are allowing just 74 yards/game and just 3.4 yards/carry. There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Rams in this spot. Road favorites who are averaging 27+ points/game on the season are just 20-46 (30%) ATS after a game in which they led by 21 or more points at the half since 1983. That’s a 70% system backing the Titans to at least cover this spread. Give me the Titans +7! |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
40* COWBOYS/RAIDERS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Raiders +3) There’s no sugar-coating the Raiders lackluster performance last week in Kansas City. Not only did they not play well, they didn’t seem to have the fire you would expect given it was against one of their hated rivals and with the division on the line. Simply put, it was embarrassing showing by this team. Any time a team plays that poorly, we often see them come back with one of their best efforts and I expect just that against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. As for Dallas, I think people are getting a little too excited with their recent performances. Two weeks ago they beat the Redskins 38-14, but Washington was decimated with injuries. They also scored 2 late touchdowns to make it look a lot worse than it was. Keep in mind that banged up Redskins team followed that up by losing 13-30 at the Chargers. They then escaped with a win over a decimated Giants team, who also had all the off field distractions with their coach getting fired in the week leading up to the game. Again, Dallas made that look like a bigger blowout than it was, as they were tied 10-10 with less than 8 minutes to play and won by 20. I believe taking advantage of two teams who were missing several key players has a lot of people forgetting what this team looked like in the first 3 games without Ezekiel Elliott. For those that forgot, they lost 7-27 at Atlanta, 9-37 at home to the Eagles and 6-28 at home to the Chargers. I think we are going to see Derek Carr and that Raiders offense put up some points, while the Oakland defense feeds off the energy of the home crowd with one of their better showings. Give me the Raiders +3! |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -1 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (49ers -1) I was on the 49ers in their win last week against the Texans and will back them again here. Usually when a team is sitting at 3-10 this late in the season, you have big time concerns with them even being motivated to play. That’s not the case with San Francisco, as this team is playing with a whole new sense of confidence under quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. I think 49ers fullback Kyle Juszcyk says it best, “It gets everyone excited. I mean, it feels like a whole new season here. It feels like we started last week. Especially, getting a win, we wish we had more games left. We wish we had a full season to do this thing with him.” Not only has it brought life to the team, but the fan base couldn’t be more excited about the future. I expect a lot of the 49ers faithful to show up for this game and give San Francisco a big home field edge here. At the same time, I’m not the high on this Tennessee team. The Titans haven’t been playing anywhere close to as well as their 6-2 record over their last 8 games would suggest. In fact, they were lucky to win a number of those contests, as 4 of the 6 wins came by 4-points or less with the two blowout wins coming at home against the Colts and Texans. Offensively the Titans seem to be lost and a big reason for that is the poor play of quarterback Marcus Mariota. In his last 4 games he’s thrown just three touchdowns with 8 interceptions. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for a mere 184 yards against the Colts, 150 yards against the Texans and 159 yards against the Cardinals. San Francisco’s overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but in their last 3 games they are allowing just 18 ppg and a mere 258.7 ypg. The defense has been especially good against the run, giving up just 80.7 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry. It’s not like the Titans are running the ball all that effectively either, as they have had rushed for fewer than 95 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. It’s also worth noting that Tennessee is a team that has not played well on the road this time of year. They are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. They are also a mere 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing home record. San Francisco on the other hand is an impressive 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset win as a road dog. Give me the 49ers -1! |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3) I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14. New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less. They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards. I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins. One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense. Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out. I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one. It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3! |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS SNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +1.5) I'll gladly take the points here with Kansas City. It’s amazing how much the perception has changed on these two teams since they last met. Keep in mind that the Chiefs were a 2.5-point road favorite in LA for that first meeting, which means at that time KC would have been close to a 8.5 favorite at home. I’m just not buying it and while I don’t think the Chiefs should be laying more than a touchdown, they should be favored by at least a field goal. I know it’s been a rough go of things for Kansas City since that 5-0 start, as they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. What gets overlooked is that while they weren’t playing great, they were in just about everyone of those games they lost. More than anything, I think the win over the Raiders was huge for the psyche of this team. That’s also now two straight games in which the offense has looked good. Had it not been for a couple dropped passes deep in Oakland territory, KC would have put up 40 on the Raiders. The week before they had 31 points and nearly 500 yards against the Jets. When this team is clicking offensively they are very tough to beat. I also like the matchup here, as the Chiefs are at their best when they can run the football. The Chargers are 29th in the NFL, giving up 124.8 ypg against the run. The other thing here is the Chiefs’ defense has had Philip Rivers’ number. They picked him off 3 times in the first meeting this season and since Andy Reid and Bob Sutton came to KC, Rivers has a mere 79.3 QB rating in 9 games against the Chiefs, throwing just as many interceptions (11) as he has touchdowns (11). Another huge factor here that I think gives the Chiefs a huge edge is the atmosphere that we will see in Kansas City. Arrowhead Stadium is going to be electric for this prime time matchup, which is going to feel like a playoff game with what’s at stake. Keep in mind that a win here and the Chiefs would simply need to beat either Miami at home or Denver on the road in their final two games to lock up the AFC West title. Give me Kansas City +1.5! |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +3) It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play. I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up here against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10. Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for. The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick. There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg. Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3! |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field. The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs. Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team. Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time. While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals. I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg). It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3! |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* SAINTS/FALCONS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Falcons +1) The home team has such a big advantage in these Thursday games, but because of how well the Saints have been playing and the Falcons off a home loss to similarly strong team in the Vikings, we are getting exceptional value here with Atlanta at home. Not only is this a tough spot for New Orleans on the road, but you have to wonder just how much this team has left in the tank, as they have had to lay it all on the line the last two weeks against the Rams and Panthers. Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is poised for a breakout game here after a tough go of things last week against an elite Minnesota defense. The Saints are better on defense, but are not on the same level as the Vikings. Give me the Falcons +1! |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 18 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWUT (Chiefs -3) It’s hard to put a finger on what’s exactly happened to the Chiefs. Outside of losing Eric Berry in Week 1, they haven’t really been hit that hard with injuries. If anything the key guys have been lost on defense, which doesn’t explain the big decline in production from the offense. The biggest difference is the lack of success the Chiefs have had running the ball. During their 5-0 start, KC averaged 156.2 ypg on the ground. Over their 1-5 stretch they have rushed for a mere 76.3 ypg. Years ago the Jets would be the last team you want to face when you couldn’t run the ball, but that’s not the case now a days. New York comes in ranked 26th in the NFL, giving up 120.4 ypg on the ground. Just last week they gave up 145 on their home field to the Panthers. I think this is a defense the Chiefs can get right against. It’s also not just all the running game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has and again this is a team I think he will play well against. I also think we are getting exceptional value here with Kansas City. What really has everyone down on this team is not only were they struggling to win games, they haven’t been covering. A big reason for that is they were way overvalued coming off that 5-0 start, laying 10-points on the road and more than a touchdown against the Bills. The books have finally adjusted, as the public is off this team. Just a coupe weeks ago I think the Chiefs would have been closer to a touchdown favorite here, but instead we get them laying only a field goal. It would be one thing if the Jets were 3-3 over their last 6 and showed the ability to close out games, but they are 1-5 and you have to wonder just how much more fight this team has left in them. It’s do or die fo the Chiefs in this game. I’ll put my trust here in Andy Reid and his staff putting together a game plan to leave New York with a win. Give me Kansas City -3! |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 43 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -2.5) I would have to lean here towards taking Baltimore and would strongly consider buying it down to 2.5 or wait it out and see if it doesn’t drop (public is on the Lions). I personally am just not all that impressed with Detroit. They are 3-4 in their last 7 and those 3 wins came against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, Browns at home and at Chicago. Keep in mind that was Green Bay’s first game without Rodgers and they were outgained and trailed by double-digits to both Cleveland and Chicago. The loss to the Vikings last week isn’t a shocker, but note Detroit had a big edge in that game playing at home on a short week of rest. As for the Ravens, I’m not exactly sold on this team either. The big reason for that is the offense is one of the worst in the league. Defensively they are elite in my eyes, especially now that they are healthy. They had a stretch during the middle of the season where they didn’t play great on that side of the ball, but were missing some key guys. Baltimore is also one of the best in the league at special teams, which can win you a lot of games in this league. I think this is a game where they can get some offense going. The Lions rank 26th in the league, giving up 359.4 ypg and are in the bottom 10 against both the run (24th, 116.2) and the pass (23rd, 243.2 ypg). Hard to trust a team that doesn’t play defense on the road. It’s also worth pointing out that their run defense has really struggled away from home, as they are giving up 5.2 yards/carry on the road. Getting the run game going will do wonders for this Ravens offense. I also give Baltimore an edge when Detroit has the ball. It’s no secret that the Lions’ offense is built around Matthew Stafford and their passing attack. That plays right into the strength of this Ravens stop unit. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL when it comes to holding opposing quarterbacks in check, as they are allowing just 189.9 ypg through the air. Look for Terrell Suggs and the rest of the Ravens front to live in the Lions backfield. That should be a recipe for at least a couple turnovers to help set up the offense with some short fields. Note that Baltimore leads the NFL with 26 takeaways. They have forced 2 or more in 6 of their 11 games and have 13 in their 5 home games this season. Detroit has committed at least 1 turnover in 7 straight games. I just think there’s too much here pointing in favor of the Ravens and with the short price I think we are getting great value. Give me Baltimore -2.5! |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 30 m | Show |
50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5) This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1. The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs. The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20. While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5! |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL REDSKINS/COWOBYS TNF NO BRAINER (Redskins -1.5) I just don’t trust this Dallas team right now. Not only is the offense missing their biggest weapon in running back Ezekiel Elliot, they have numerous players ailing along the offensive line. Left tackle Tyron Smith was able to return last week, but he’s still dealing with both groin and back problems. Right tackle La’el Collins figures to play, but also isn’t practicing because of back problems. On top of all that, second year quarterback Dak Prescott is not playing well. He completed 20 of 27 attempts against LA, but only finished with 179 yards. He also threw 2 more interceptions, giving him 5 in the 3 games since Elliott’s suspension started. He’s also not thrown a single touchdown pass during this stretch. It’s not just the offense that is struggling, the defense has allowed at least 27 points during the 3-game slide. A big part of that is they are having to be on the field a lot more. They have also been without All-Pro linebacker Sean Lee the last two games and he's the one guy this defense couldn't afford to lose. During the Cowboys 3-game slide since Elliott’s suspension they have been outscored 92-22 and have failed to score at least 10 points in any game. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all 3 contests. I know Washington has a laundry list of injuries that they are dealing with, but this team has shown the ability to fight through them. More than anything, I trust Kirk Cousins and this Redskins offense to be able to score and I see no reason why the defense won’t be able to hold their own with how poorly Dallas’ offense is performing without Elliott. Give me the Redskins -1.5! |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY UNDERDOG SHOCKER (49ers +7) I'll gladly back San Francisco at home coming off their bye week against the Seahawks. There's no denying the 49ers are in rebuilding mode, but this is also a team that's much better than their 1-9 record, as they have 5 losses by 3 points or less and have been in most of their games. Seattle clearly isn't right after losing at home in a prime time game against the Falcons on Monday Night Football, yet they are getting treated here like an elite team. The thing is the Seahawks have lost a number of key players to injury, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I look for the 49ers to do enough here offensively to keep this close and potentially even win this game outright. Give me San Francisco +7! |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Panthers -5) I just don't see Carolina failing to leave New York with a win. The Panthers are quietly sitting at 7-3 and right in the thick of things in the NFC, but aren't a team that's getting talked about a lot. Not only is this team flying under the radar, but I think they are only getting better as the season goes along. They come in having won 3 straight and simply can't take their foot off the gas with how well the Saints and Falcons are playing inside their division. The Jets were more competitive than anyone expected early on this season, but are just 1-4 in their last 5 and I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy they showed early over the final few weeks of the season. Biggest thing here is I just don't see New York being able to get anything going offensively against this top notch Carolina defense. Give me the Panthers -5! |
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11-26-17 | Titans v. Colts +3.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Colts +3.5) I think the Titans are one of the most overrated teams in the league and that showed in their last game, when they lost 17-40 at Pittsburgh. The Colts on the other hand are a team I feel is trending in the right direction and are simply a lot better than they get credit for. The biggest key here is Tennessee is not a good road team and that's evident by their awful 7-21 ATS record over their last 28 games. Titans have also had a hard time playing well against bad teams, as they are just 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. Colts are the exact opposite, having gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with winning road record. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 off of their bye week. Give me the Colts +3.5! |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins +17 v. Patriots | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BIG MONEY ATS NO BRAINER (Dolphins +17) As well as the Patriots are playing right now, I can't pass up on catching 3-scores with Miami against their division rivals. The Dolphins have been a hard team to figure out, as one week they look like a playoff contender and the next look like the worst team in the league. My money is on them to at least play well enough to keep this within the number, as there's no team they would rather beat than the Patriots. I also like the fact that Matt Moore is getting the start here instead of Jay Cutler. I just haven't been impressed with Cutler at all this season and I actually think the players have more confidence in Moore giving them a shot to win. I think he gets the offense going and the defense does just enough here to keep the Patriots from running away with this. Give me the Dolphins +17! |
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11-23-17 | Giants +7.5 v. Redskins | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NFL LATE NIGHT THANKSGIVING ATS NO BRAINER (Giants +7.5) I was impressed with how New York responded after being called out by their head coach in the week leading up to their game against Kansas City. They played one of their best games of the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I believe we will see this team carry over that effort here against a division rival. As for Washington, I think it’s asking a lot of this team to pull away for a comfortable win here. While they aren’t officially out of the playoff race, that loss to the Saints really made things difficult for the Redskins. The Falcons hold the final Wild Card spot in the NFC at 6-4 and there’s 4 teams between Atlanta and Washington. The big concern here for me with the Redskins is they are once again dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Starting center Spencer Long is on IR and backup Chase Roullier just fractured a bone in his hand this past Sunday. Good chance Roulier doesn’t play and if he doesn’t backup guard/tackle Tony Bergstrom will be forced into action at center. The team will also be without starting left guard Shawn Laovao and left tackle Trent Williams will be a go on short rest with a bum knee. Needless to say the offensive line is a complete mess right now and it’s just hard to win games, especially by more than a touchdown when dealing with these kinds of injuries up front. Look for the Giants defensive front to live in Washington's backfield. That’s not the end of the injuries for the Redskins offense. Wide out Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Thompson both just landed on IR. While Pryor has been a disappointment after signing as a free agent, Thompson is tied for the team lead with 39 receptions and his 510 yards receiving are second only to Vernon Davis with 527. Thompson is also the top backup at running back with Rob Kelly on IR. Same Perine has taken over as the lead back, but he’s questionable, as is tight end Jordan Reed. I know the offense of the Giants is nothing to get excited about, but the Redskins defense has been reeling. Washington has allowed 30+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. If they struggle at all to find motivation after that crushing loss to the Saints, New York could be in store for one of their best offensive games of the season. At the same time, I don't think they have to be great offensively to keep this within a touchdown, as I don't see this turning into a shootout. Give me the Giants +7.5! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Lions | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
40* NFL THANKSGIVING BANKROLL FEAST (Vikings -2.5) I'll take the bait here and back Minnesota laying less than a field goal against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team. Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team. The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around. Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards. Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome. Give me Minnesota -2.5! |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NFL FALCONS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -2.5) My money is on the Seahawks laying less than a field goal at home against the Falcons. I just don’t think Seattle is getting near enough respect here in a prime time home game, especially this late in the season and with how much they want this game given what happened in that ugly playoff loss to the Falcons a year ago. Year in and year out under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks always seem to be playing their best football in the 2nd half. I know they lost a huge piece to their defense in Richard Sherman, but they still have two of the best safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. I also think backup Jeremy Lane is capable of holding his own. Lane also has had a few extra days to get use to his new role, as Seattle gets a big advantage here playing with 3 extra days of rest after the Thursday night game. At the same time, I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with Atlanta off that big win over the Cowboys. Dallas is simply not the same team without Ezekiel Elliott and there would have been major concerns had they not won convincingly. I just think that win has people thinking this team is back, but in reality they are 2-4 in their last 5 and more likely to revert back to their old ways. It’s also not like Atlanta’s offense lit the world on fire against the Cowboys and the offense hasn’t looked the same all season. Even without Sherman this is a top notch Seahawks defense that is only giving up 18.3 ppg. I also don’t think the offense gets enough respect, especially at home. Seattle is averaging an impressive 28.2 ppg and 426 ypg at home this season. Look for Russell Wilson and the offense to steal the show in this prime time affair. Give me the Seahawks -2.5! |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ravens -2) I believe the fact that Green Bay was able to pull out a victory in Chicago has provided some hope that the Packers aren’t completely done for without Rodgers. I’m not buying it, as I don’t think any player means more to their team than Rodgers. Let’s also not overlook the win came against the Bears, a team they know very well with them being in the same division, plus Chicago is a bad team. I know the Ravens haven’t been playing great here of late, but this is a great spot to back them, as Baltimore is coming off of their bye. A big time advantage this late in the season. It’s also a spot in which they have excelled, as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off their bye week. I also love this matchup for the Ravens, who are a top tier defensive team. Baltimore is 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 311 yards/game. While the run defense hasn’t been great, Green Bay isn’t a strong running team and could be without their two best options out of the backfield. Aaron Jones had really come on strong for the Packers, but he’s out 3-6 weeks with an MCL injury and backup Ty Montgomery is questionable with a rib injury. That’s going to put too much pressure on Brett Hundley, who simply isn’t very good. The big concern with Baltimore is their offense and rightfully so. The Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at just 286.6 ypg. However, this Packers defense is getting exposed now that they are being asked to do a lot more with the offense struggling to score. In Green Bay’s 3 games without Rodgers, the defense has allowed 408.3 ypg and 6.4 yards/play. While the win over the Bears certainly helped keep this line from being more, I also think Green Bay is getting more respect than it deserves on their home field. Keep in mind we already have seen them lose badly at home in two games without Rodgers, falling 17-26 to the Saints and 17-30 to the Lions and that game against Detroit was on Monday Night Football, when you would expect the home field edge to be at it’s strongest. Give me the Ravens -2! |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +8 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Redskins +8) As hard as it is to go against a red-hot team like the Saints, I would have to lean towards taking the points here with Washington. Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 7-game winning streak, as it’s no easy task to win that many in a row, regardless of who you are playing, but it’s certainly been a favorable stretch for them. In just their last 4 games they have faced Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears and Bucs at home and a clearly dysfunctional Bills team that is doing everything they can to ruin this season. The latest move being benching starting QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. They also have a home win over the Lions and win against the Dolphins in London where Miami didn’t show up to play. The best win of the bunch is a victory at Carolina way back in Week 3. That looks great now with how the Panthers are playing, but keep in mind that Cam Newton was playing at less than 100% early in the year. Now I’m not saying the Saints are going to lose this game at home, I just think it’s asking a lot for them to win here by more than a touchdown against a good but not great Washington team. Despite a rash of injuries, including a stretch where they were missing 4 starting offensive linemen, the Redskins have showed a lot of fight and this feels like a game they need to have to keep their playoff hopes alive. We also have a strong system that backs this being a good time to fade the Saints. Favorites in the NFL that are averaging 27 or more points/game are just 9-27 (25%) ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since 1983. Give me the Redskins +8! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 89 h 41 m | Show |
50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2) The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2. LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs. The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game. Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2! |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
40* NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Steelers -7) Most people expected the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and cover against the Colts last Sunday, but that didn’t happen. Pittsburgh was lucky just to leave Indianapolis with a win. I think that performance will have a lot of people looking to back the Titans catching a touchdown in this Thursday night matchup, but I’m just not a believer in this Tennessee team and will take my chances with the Steelers at home in a prime time game. It’s no secret that the home team has a huge edge in these Thursday games when both teams are playing on short rest. That combined with the fact the Titans have no been a good road team is a big reason why I’m willing to lay the touchdown here. Tennessee hasn’t played on the road since they went to Cleveland back on 10/22 and they barely beat the Browns, needing overtime to escape with a 12-9 win. The Titans also lost at Miami 10-16 and at Houston 14-57 in their previous two on the highway. As you can see, the offense has really struggled to put up points away from home and it’s not going to get any easier here against a very good Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 16.4 ppg and are also 2nd in total defense, allowing just 284.5 ypg. One thing Pittsburgh does very well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a team to rush for more than 71 yards in each of their last 4 games. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a quality signal caller, Tennessee ranks just 27th in the NFL at 203.9 passing yards/game. As for the Steelers offense, you simply can’t read to much into their lackluster showings in their last two games at Detroit and at Indianapolis. For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just doesn’t play well on the road. With a tired and banged up Titans defense coming to town, I look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense to have a lot of success here against what I think is an overrated Tennessee defense. The Titans rank just 23rd in points allowed, giving up 23.7 ppg, despite an easy schedule. In their 9 games they have faced numerous bad offenses, such as the Jaguars, Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals. Titans are also not a team that has performed well off a win, as they are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games off a win. Tennessee is also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game in which they didn’t cover the number and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Steelers -7! |
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11-12-17 | Packers v. Bears -4 | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Bears -4) I think a lot of people are going to have a hard time grasping the Bears being a favorite against the Packers, even with Rodgers sidelined. More than anything, I don’t think the public trusts Chicago enough to take advantage of the opportunity. I’m on the other side of this, as I don’t think the loss of Rodgers is being taken into account enough. It certainly wasn’t in Green Bay’s last two games when they lost at home to the Saints 17-26 as a 4-point dog and then to Detroit as a mere 2.5-point dog at home. Based on what we have seen from backup quarterback Brett Hundley, I would have to lay the points with Chicago in this one. The Packers simply aren’t as talented as people think, as Rodgers does a really good job of making them look better than they are. Especially on offense, where Green Bay’s offensive line has been stinking it up for years. The Packers have also had a horrible time running the ball, despite defenses having to pay so much respect to Rodgers and his arm. I just think it’s asking a lot of Hundley and this offense to score enough to keep this game competitive against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of Chicago this season and at 3-5 most just think they are playing up to their potential. While the offense has a long way to go, the defense has been one of the best in the league. Chicago ranks 8th overall in total defense (312 ypg) and are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. They have been especially stingy at home, where they are given up just 15.7 ppg. All of this and we haven’t even got into the huge scheduling advantage that the Bears have. With Chicago coming off a bye, they get 13 days to rest up and prepare for the Packers. On the flip side of this, Green Bay has just 5 days to get ready after playing on Monday Night Football. I also don’t think there’s a ton of hope here for the Packers offense with Hundely. If they were going to figure things out, they would have done so during their bye week leading up to last week’s game against Detroit. Another thing here is I think we could see the best game from Bears rookie Mitchell Trubisky, who has had to face some really good defenses in his first 4 starts (Vikings, Ravens, Panthers and Saints). Green Bay isn’t a great defensive team, as they are just 25th in the NFL, giving up 357 ypg and have been especially bad on the road, where they are giving up 29.3 ppg. Give me the Bears -4. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | 47-10 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bills +3) As well as the Saints have been playing, I think the value here is with Buffalo catching a field goal at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points/game. Had it not been for that ugly loss to the Jets in prime time last week, I think this would be closer to a pick’em and maybe even have Buffalo favored. Keep in mind the Bills had won 4 of their previous 5 games before the loss. Another key thing with the performance against New York, you can’t overlook how difficult it is for a lot of these teams to play on the road with that short week of rest and preparation. I don’t think there’s any doubt that’s no where close to an accurate showing of how this team has played. Also, the scheduling aspect now works in their favor, as they get an extra 3 days of rest and time to prepare due to playing on Thursday. I know New Orleans is 3-1 away from home this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and some lucky breaks like going to Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury. Historically this Saints team has not been nearly the same team on the road as they have at home and Buffalo can be one of the more difficult places to play, especially this late in the season. When most people think of the Saints offense the first thing that comes to mind is Drew Brees and the passing attack. However, they have been running the ball effectively this year. I think that’s important to note, as there have been 4 games where they were held to 105 or less yards and in all 4 games they scored 20 or fewer points (2-2 record). On the flip side, they have rushed for 145 or more in their other 4 games and scored 26 or more in all 4 of those. I believe the Bills are a team that can really make it tough on the Saints rushing attack. Buffalo comes in ranked 8th in the NFL giving up just 94.4 ypg on the ground. They have also held 5 of their 8 opponents to fewer than 80 yards and are giving up just 68 yards/game at home this season. New Orleans is just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they came into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Buffalo on the other hand is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games played in Weeks 10 through 13 and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season. Give me the Bills +3. |
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11-12-17 | Vikings -2 v. Redskins | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2) The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board. I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month. Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal. I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5. Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NFL (SEA/ARZ) TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Seahawks -6) I'm rolling the dice with Seattle in this one, even though the road team is at a big disadvantage in these Thursday night games. Key here is the Seahawks have a strong track record in these Thursday games under head coach Pete Carroll, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in this spot. Seattle has also been a great team to back when coming off a loss, as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when coming off defeat. At the same time, I just don’t trust this Arizona team at all right now. Getting a road win over the 49ers is nothing to get excited about, as San Francisco hasn’t won a game all season. The biggest concern with the Cardinals being the loss of starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who suffered a season-ending injury in their previous game against the Rams, which they lost 0-33. Drew Stanton went just 5 of 14 in relief of Palmer against LA. While he threw for 200 yards against the 49ers, he completed just 50% of his attempts. The biggest thing that stands out to me in that game against San Francisco, is the offense leaned heavily on Adrian Peterson, who carried it 37 times for 159 yards. That’s great, but you have to wonder just how much AP will have left in the tank on a short week of rest. At the same time, they will be going up against a much better defense in Seattle, who is giving up just 18.6 ppg and will load up the box to try and force Stanton to beat them with his arm. I also think this Arizona defense could be in for a long day, as they have not fared well against the better teams they have faced. In fact, they have allowed a combined 38 points in 3 games against the 49ers (twice) and Colts. In every other game they have allowed at least 28 points, giving up 30 or more 5 different times. It’s no secret that Seattle isn’t as good on the road as they are at home, but at the same time the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Arizona is also a mere 1-6 in their last 7 off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing less than 15 points. Give me the Seahawks -6! |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
40* LIONS/PACKERS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -2) I'll take the bait here with Detroit, as I'm just not buying the Packers being much of a threat the rest of the way without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. I don't think there's any QB in the league that means more to their team than Rodgers. The offense only managed 227 yards in the game against the Vikings, where Rodgers suffered that season-ending injury in the 1st quarter. They then totaled just 260 yards in their next game at home against the Saints, where they were outgunned by 225 yards. In those two games, backup Brett Hundley completed just 51.7% of his attempts with 1 TD to 4 interceptions. Green Bay has no choice but to rely on their rushing attack and Detroit knows that. It also plays into the strength of the Lions defense, which ranks 6th in the league, giving up just 91.6 ypg on the ground (have only allowed more than 90 yards twice this season). I'll take my chances with Stafford and the Lions offense doing enough to win here by a field goal. Give me the Lions -2! |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bucs +7) I'll take Tampa Bay catching a touchdown in this one, as I think we are getting a great price to back the Buccaneers here, due to their recent struggles and the Saints coming in having won and covered each of their last 5. I know the records say different, but I just don’t think there’s as big of a gap in talent here as the line would suggest. Keep in mind that Tampa was only a 3-point dog in last year’s visit to the Superdome. As bad as Tampa Bay was on offense last week against the Panthers, I like their chances of having success on that side of the ball against the Saints. While New Orleans has been playing better defense of late, a big reason for that is who they have played. During their 5-game winning streak they have faced the Panthers, Dolphins, Bears and Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The lone decent offense they faced during this stretch was the Lions and they gave up 38 points to Detroit. It’s also worth noting that prior to last week’s game, Tampa had scored 30+ in each of their previous two games. There’s also encouraging news regarding Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, who ailing right shoulder has certainly played a role in the teams struggles. He was on the field practicing Wednesday, which is something he wasn’t able to do the past two weeks. Something to keep in mind with the Saints and their high-powered offense is they just lost starting right guard Larry Warford. New Orleans is already down starting right tackle Zach Streif. Injuries up front can really derail an offense and I that can only help the Bucs defense keep Brees and company in check. Tampa Bay is an encouraging 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 and the Saints are a dismal 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games when they come in having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. The Bucs are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Give me the Bucs +7! |
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11-05-17 | Rams -4 v. Giants | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4) I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week. It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for. The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s. On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense. You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4! |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Jets +3.5) Both of these teams have been better than I think anyone expected coming into the season. I just think Buffalo is getting a little too much respect here off their blowout win over the Raiders and the fact that they already beat these Jets by more than a touchdown earlier this season. I also don’t think the Bills are as good as advertised. Buffalo has been outgained in each of their last 6 games and when you look at their resume to this point they have a lot of wins over teams who are struggling in 2017, such as the Broncos, Falcons, Bucs and Raiders. Another big key here is the huge advantage the home teams have in these Thursday games, especially this deep into the season. Just look at last week when the Ravens came out of nowhere to lay a beating on the Dolphins 40-0. Keep in mind that Miami came into that game having won 3 straight, while the Ravens were a mere 1-4 over their last 5 games. Give me the Jets +3.5! |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -7) My money is on KC at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. This might seem like a big number for a division game, but I think this is an ideal spot to back the Chiefs. Not only does this feel like a must-win for Kansas City off 2 straight losses, but they got a big edge with a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 7. Any time you give Andy Reid extra time to prepare for an opponent, it typically ends bad for the other side. Note their win over the Eagles, where they led by 14 late in that game was after they played on Thursday the previous week. I know the Chiefs lost to Oakland in their last game, but they have dominated the AFC West and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the division. Give me Kansas City -7! |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -3 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
50* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3) I just don't trust this Lions team against the Steelers, who might be the best team in the AFC. We pay so much attention to Pittsburgh's "Triple B's" on offense, but I've been really impressed with the defense. If you take away the two interceptions returned for a TD and a garbage TD in the final minutes in their 9-30 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers defense would be working on 4 straight games where they haven't allowed more than 14 points. Note that Jaguars game is the only one all season where they gave up more than 20-points in regulation. I expect the defense to show up in prime time game tonight and we get more than enough from Big Ben and the Steelers offense to secure the win and cover. Give me Pittsburgh -3! |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5) The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5! |
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10-29-17 | Texans +7 v. Seahawks | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Texans +7) I'll gladly take a touchdown with the Texans on Sunday against the Seahawks. The fact that Seattle comes in having won 3 straight and the perceived home field advantage, has them overvalued in my mind. Two of those wins came against the Giants and Colts and the other was a victory over the Rams they had no business winning. The only other win is against the 49ers. Houston is playing with all kinds of confidence behind rookie QB Deshaun Watson and he's guided the Texans offense to 33 or more points in 4 straight games. It probably won't be that easy against the Seahawks, but I think Houston has the easier time moving the ball. The Texans are coming off a bye and have the talent up front to overpower a weak Seahawks offensive line. Give me Houston +7! |
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10-29-17 | 49ers +13 v. Eagles | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (49ers +13) This feels like a good spot to jump off the Eagles bandwagon. That public was all over the Eagles in their blowout win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football and will be quick to back them here against a 49ers team they love to fade. I think this will be a difficult spot for Philadelphia to show up with their “A” game. They hear what everyone is saying about them and probably feel like the 49ers are no match for them. That’s when you not only let a team stick around, but lose outright.Let’s also not discount the fact that the Eagles are playing on a short week of rest after their game on Monday Night Football and their first full game without the services of star left tackle Jason Peters. That’s a massive blow, as elite left tackles are hard to come by and chances are the offense won’t be the same from here on out. Give me the 49ers +13! |
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10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals -10.5 | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -10.5) The Colts are a complete mess right now and have been atrocious on the road. Indy has played 3 games away from home and all 3 have coming by at least 14 points. Last week they got shutout at home 27-0 by the Jaguars, as Brissett was sacked 10-times. This Bengals defense has been playing well all season. They come in 5th in the league in total defense, giving up just 289 ypg. I know the Bengals offense has struggled, but the Colts are giving up 31.7 ppg on the season and 42.7 ppg when on the road. Sitting at 2-4 this is not a game the Bengals can afford to look past and I expect them to lay it on the Colts in one of the more lopsided finals from Sunday. Give me Cincinnati -10.5! |