40* E WASH/N ARIZONA NCAAB ATS STEAMROLLER (E Washington -10.5) 

I played on Eastern Washington as a 9-point dog in their last game against St. Mary's and they covered easily in a 5-point loss. The Eagles could have easily won that game outright. They had as big as a 9-point lead in the 2nd half on the road. 

However, the loss dropped Eastern Washington to 1-4 on the season and that's definitely playing into the Eagles showing value here against a Northern Arizona team they should handle with ease. Keep in mind the first 3 losses for Eastern Washington all came on the road against Pac-12 teams in Washington St, Arizona and Oregon. Both losses to the Cougars and Wildcats came by just 3 points. 

While they lost by just 3 to Arizona, their opponent today, Northern Arizona, lost to the Wildcats by 43 (96-53). The Lumberjacks have also lost by 24 to UC Riverside and by 39 to Colorado State. Those are the only 3 games they have played. I just think a desperate Eastern Washington team is going to easily win here by 11 or more. Give me the Eagles -10.5! 

40* CHATTANOOGA/UAB NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UAB -11) 

We played on UAB in their last game against Southern as a mere 15-point favorite and they went on to win that game by a final score of 88-46. They have played 7 games and won 6 of those by 20 points. This team started out ranked 115th in KenPom and are up to 88. They have won and covered every game the books have set a line and I don't know how you don't keep riding this team, especially with a favorable line like we have here. 

In my analysis on UAB against Southern I mentioned how much I loved the hire of head coach Andy Kennedy and even more so the talent he inherited and brought to town. 

Kennedy took over a UAB team that returned their top 3 scorers from last year in guards Tavin Lovan (13.2 ppg), Jalen Benjamin (11.9 ppg) and Tyreek Scott-Grayson (10.0 ppg). He then went out and added two Top 50 rated grad transfers in Michael Ertel and Quan Jackson. The only non-power 5 program to land two such grad transfers ranked in the Top 50. They also added 7'0 big man Trey Jemison, who has been a force for the Blazers. Jemison is averaging 9.5 ppg 8.5 rpg and a staggering 3.7 blocks/game. 

One of the reasons we are getting value here is because Chattanooga enters the game with a perfect 7-0 record. However, it's not that impressive when you take a closer look. The Mocs have played one game against a team ranked in the Top 200 at KenPom and that is No. 198 ranked Middle Tennessee, who is 2-4 with losses to Nebraska-Omaha and E Tennessee St. Give me UAB -11! 

40* HOFSTRA/ST. BONAVENTURE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (St. Bonaventure -11.5) 

I waited and waited for the Bonnies to take the floor for the 2020-21 season and cashed a winning ticket on them in their 81-74 win against Akron on Tuesday. I will fire right back with St. Bonaventure on Saturday at home against Hofstra. 

Right now the Bonnies are No. 72 in Kenpom, but I see them as way better than that. This is a team that returns all 5 starters from a 19-win team. They got 3 guys who can carry the load offensively if needed. In the win over Akron, Osun Osunniyi led the way with 25 points, but they also 18 from Dominick Welch and 17 from Kyle Lofton. 

One thing to note about that win and cover against the Zips is they did that despite going a dreadful 1 for 14 from behind the 3-point line. While they aren't going to light teams up from deep, they are a much better 3-point shooting team than that and I think playing at home compared to a neutral site will help in a big way here. 

Hofstra is 3-2 but I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen from the Pride. Their 3 wins are against Fairleigh Dickinson, Stony Brook and Monmouth. Two of those wins were by single digits. Hofstra also lost by 28 last year (73-45) in a visit to the Bonnies. Give me St Bonaventure -11.5! 

40* N COLORADO/UTAH ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Utah State -11.5)

I think we are getting a great price here with Utah State as a mere 11.5-point home favorite against Northern Colorado. The Aggies come into this game with a mere 2-3 record, but all 3 losses have come against quality teams in VCU, South Dakota State and BYU. They only lost by 3 to BYU and do have a nice 11-point win over UNI on their resume. 

The Bears enter this game at 3-1, but it's a very misleading 3-1 record. Two of those wins are against non-DI opponents in Colorado Christian and Regis. The other is against Denver by 8 and they are ranked 322nd in KenPom. The only decent team Northern Colorado has faced is Colorado and they lost that contest by 36 points (45-81). 

Utah State is not only the better team, but they have a big edge here in rest. Aggies had some Covid issues and as a result haven't played since last Tuesday (Dec. 8). The Bears on the other hand are playing their 3rd game this week as they played at Colorado on Monday and at Denver on Wednesday. Give me the Aggies -11.5! 

50* KANSAS/TEXAS TECH NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech -3) 

I will gladly lay the short number here with the Red Raiders at home against the Jayhawks. I was shocked when this line opened at close to a pick'em and still see plenty of value at this price. Head coach Chris Beard has turned Texas Tech into an elite program. Last year they had to replace a lot and ended up going just 18-13 with a 9-9 mark in the Big 12. One thing to note is that all 13 losses were to teams who finished in the Top 100 of KenPom's rankings, 4 were in OT and their largest loss was by 12 points. 

I expect the Red Raiders to jump right back into that same category of a Final 4 contender that they were the previous two years. Red Raiders got talent coming back, added in some great talent from the transfer portal and got two stud freshmen that are already making an impact. 

Kanas is always a good team and they 6-1 with their only loss to Gonzaga, but they were never really in that game against the Bulldogs. Their two best wins over Kentucky and Creighton came by a combined 4 points and we saw this team only beat North Dakota State by 4 on their home floor. I just think Tech is the better team. Give me the Red Raiders -3! 

50* MEMPHIS/TULANE AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Memphis -10.5)

I think this is the perfect spot to fade the Green Wave. Tulane is getting quite a bit a love here after their 4-0 start, but those 4 wins have come against Lamar, Lipscomb, Southern Miss and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Lamar is ranked No. 289 and is currently 1-5. They only beat them by 9. They beat Lipscomb by 2, who is 3-5 with wins over Lamar, No. 328 SE Miss St and a non-DI school. They did beat Southern Miss by 20, but they are No. 307 with their only D-1 win coming against Lamar. They beat Ark Pine Bluff by 11 and they are No. 350 and 1-7. 

I get Memphis hasn't been quite as dominant as we thought they would be. Tigers are 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come to quality teams in WKU, VCU and Auburn. They were competitive in all 3. I just think the talent gap is much bigger than what this number would suggest. Give me Memphis -10.5! 

40* PITTSBURGH/MIAMI NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Miami +2) 

We have seen Miami go from a favorite to a dog in this game against Pitt and I just think there's too much value here with the Hurricanes as a home dog against what I think is a pretty overrated Pitt team. 

Miami will be missing some key players, but they also will be adding in Stony Brook transfer Elijah Olaniyi, as the NCAA is expected to announce later today that all transfers will be immediately eligible to play. More than enough talent with Olaniyi to beat the Panthers and I think we get a big effort here with people doubting the short-handed canes in this one. 

Pitt is 4-1, but their only win against a team ranked inside the Top 150 of KenPom is Northwestern and I'm not so sure the Wildcats are all that great. Pitt's other 3 wins are against Drexel, Northern Illinois and Gardner Webb. Not to mention their lone loss came by double-digits to a St Francis team that is ranked No. 258 at KenPom. Give me Miami +2! 

40* NEB-OMAHA/COLORADO NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Colorado -21.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Buffaloes. Colorado comes in at 3-1 with their only loss on the road against Tennessee, who looks like one of the best teams in the country. In their other 3 wins they have won by 23 over South Dakota, by 18 over Kansas State (outscored Wildcats 67-36 after falling behind 22-9) and most recently a 36-point win over Northern Colorado on Monday. 

While this will be their second game in basically 48 hours, they didn't have to use much energy in their last game. No starter played more than 30 minutes and only senior McKinley Wright logged more than 22 minutes. Colorado should have no problem getting back up and making easy work of the Mavericks. 

Nebraska-Omaha is just 2-5 and have struggled to keep it close when they have played better teams. The Mavs lost by 27 at Creighton and by 45 at Kansas. They also lost by 21 at Drake. I just don't think it's asking much of the Buffs to win here by 22. Give me Colorado -21.5! 

40* E WASH/ST. MARY'S LATE NIGHT CBB BAILOUT (Eastern Michigan +9) 

If you don't know much about these two teams, you might think this line is way off, as you have a Eastern Washington team that is 1-3 with their only win against a non-DI opponent as a mere 9-point dog against a St Mary's team that is 6-1 and riding a 6-game winning streak since losing their opener to Memphis. 

The big thing to note with the Gaels is each of their last 4 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 175 in KenPom. On the flip side of this, Eastern Washington's 1-3 start is a result of their schedule.

All 3 of their losses came on the road against Pac-12 teams in Washington St, Arizona and Oregon. They only lost by 3 to both the Cougars and Wildcats. They did loe by 17 to the Ducks, but were only down 4 at the half and had to play that game on just 1 day of rest after facing Arizona. 

I not only think the Eagles can keep it close enough to cover, but I give them a good shot here of winning the game outright. Give me Eastern Washington +9! 

50* SE LOUISIANA/TEXAS A&M NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas A&M -21.5) 

I really like the value here with Texas A&M covering as a big home favorite against SE Louisiana. This is a huge mismatch in terms of talent. The Lions come into this game at 1-5 with some really ugly losses. They lost by 53 to LSU and 25 to UAB. The only two teams they have played ranked inside the Top 100 in KenPom. 

They are 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 311th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They also like to play fast, which aids to them getting blown out by such big numbers, as they rank 62nd in tempo. 

Texas A&M had started out 3-0, but were just embarrassed in their last game at TCU, losing 55-73 to the Horned Frogs. I think that's aiding in the favorable number we are getting and it also should have the Aggies more locked in for this game than they would have been otherwise. Give me Texas A&M -21.5! 

40* APPALACHIAN ST/TENNESSEE NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Appalachian State +19) 

I played and won on Appalachian State in their last game at Charlotte, as the Mountaineers won outright 61-57 as a 4-point dog. I mention in the analysis of that game how much I like this team, especially head coach Dustin Kerns. 

Last year in his first season on the job. Appalachian State surprised everyone going 18-15 with a 11-9 mark (6th) in Sun Belt play. A huge improvement from the year before when they finished 11-20 and 6-12 in conference play. 

Turning around a program is nothing new for Kerns. In his previous stint at Presbyterian, he took a program that has never been competitive to a real force. He took over a team that finished 5-25. In his first year they improved to 11-21 and in year two they went 20-16. Last season without him they dropped back down to 10-22. 

I believe this team is more than capable of hanging around with the Volunteers and covering this big number. Tennessee is a really good team, but this is a bit of a flat spot off two big games against Colorado and Cincinnati to start the year. While they won both of those games, they only scored 54 against the Buffaloes and 65 against the Bearcats. Some of that low scoring is how they play, as they rank 294th in adjusted tempo. That slow pace only favors App State covering this big number even more. Give me the Mountaineers +19! 

50* MARQUETTE/UCLA LATE NIGHT *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (UCLA -4) 

I love the value here with the Bruins laying a short number at home. I had a feeling this line was going to drop with the public being drawn to Marquette as most still have questions over how good this UCLA team is after watching them lose by 15 to San Diego State and need 3OT to beat Pepperdine. 

It's not uncommon for teams to come out a bit sluggish. I think UCLA has got some of those kinks worked out. They also didn't have one of their better players in junior Jalen Hill for both games against SDSU and Pepperdine. 

The other big thing I like here with going against Marquette is that the Golden Eagles played all 5 of their games so far at home. Not only is this their first road game, but this quite a long distance for them to travel. I just think it's a really tough spot for them. Give me UCLA -4! 

40* N FLORIDA/E CAROLINA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (East Carolina -13.5)

This is a vastly improved East Carolina team. The Pirates have started out the season 4-0 and while the competition hasn't been the stiffest, this North Florida team will be the worst D-I opponent they have faced this season. 

North Florida is 0-6 and in their last two games have lost to High Point and FAU, who are both ranked outside the Top 200 in KenPom. East Carolina is sitting at No. 116. 

Ospreys have been awful on the defensive end. They are 348th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don't force turnovers and give up offensive rebounds at a very high rate. They also foul a lot, as opponents are attempting 22 free throws a game against them.  All things that will allow the Pirates to create the separation needed to cover this spread. Give me East Carolina -13.5! 

40* OKLAHOMA/XAVIER NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma +1) 

I'm really high on the Sooners this year and will gladly take them at basically a pick'em on the road against what I feel is a pretty mediocre Xavier team. I played and cashed on Oklahoma in each of their first two games against UTSA and TCU. Sooners have one of the best players in the country in Austin Reaves, who currently ranks as the 6th best player in KenPom's rankings. 

Xavier enters this game at 6-0 and I definitely feel like that's playing into the value with Oklahoma. Musketeers could easily be just 3-3. They beat Bradley by 1, Toledo by 3 and needed OT to get past Eastern Kentucky. All of those came at home. They did just beat Cincinnati by 8, but I'm way down on the Bearcats this year. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Oklahoma +1!

40* INDIANA/FLORIDA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Florida St -3) 

I know the Big Ten absolutely owned the ACC last night, but I can't help myself with Florida State as a mere 3-point home favorite against Indiana. It feels like every year people sleep on Leonard Hamilton's team and I think that's the case again. Everyone sees the talent FSU lost to the NBA, but that's nothing new. This team reloads way better than they get credit for. 

What I love here in this matchup is the Seminoles have incredible size and talent inside, led by 6-9 freshman Scottie Barnes, 7-1 sophomore Balsa Koprivica and 6-8 junior Raiquan Gray. I think that size will be the key in this one, as Indiana has really relied on scoring inside so far this year. Hoosiers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country early on. This matchup really reminds me a lot of Indiana game last week against Texas, which they got absolutely destroyed 66-44. Give me the Seminoles -3! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Furman +3.5) 

A lot of people will probably look at this line and want to take Cincinnati as a small home favorite, but that's only because they aren't aware of how good this Furman team is. The Paladins are 4-0 and while they haven't played anybody to this point, they have absolutely dominated the competition. All 4 wins have been by no fewer than 24 points. 

Not a huge surprise when you look at the fact that Furman returns 4 starters from a team that went 25-7 last year. This is without question the team to beat in the Southern Conference and it would be a shock if they didn't make the NCAA Tournament. 

As for the Bearcats, they are way down from last year's team that won 20 games and finished T-1st in the AAC with a 13-5 league mark. Cincinnati lost 3 big pieces from that team in Jarron Cumberland, Jaevin Cumberland and Tre Scott. Head coach John Brannen was quoted saying "We flipped the roster...This, to me, was always going to be a transition year." 

While the Bearcats have only played two games, they barely got by a bad Lipscomb team 67-55 (trailed by 9 in the 2nd half) and lost to a pretty mediocre Xavier team this past Sunday at home. Give me Furman +3.5! 

40* BC/MINNESOTA NCAAB ATS STEAMROLLER (Boston College +7) 

This is the perfect time to buy low on Boston College. The Eagles come into this game with a 1-3 record and are fresh off an ugly 20-point loss to Florida on a neutral floor. That was just a bad game for the Eagles and it continued quite the gauntlet to start the year, as their 3 previous were against Villanova, Rhode Island and St. John's (all 4 opponents rank in the Top 80 in KenPom). 

As for Minnesota, they are 4-0, but have played quite an easy schedule. They two wins over teams ranked 250 or worse (Green Bay and North Dakota). The other two wins are against Loyola-Marymount, who is ranked 137th. I just don't think there's anywhere close to the gap in talent that this line suggests. Give me Boston College +7!  

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (UC-Santa Barbara -3) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Gauchos as a slim 3-point home favorite against Loyola-Marymount. I just think we are getting a good price here with UC-Santa Barbara because their only game has come against a non D-I opponent in Saint Katherine, while the Lions are off a 24-point win and cover against Long Beach State and played Minnesota tough twice. 

There's plenty to like about the Gauchos, as they bring back 4 starters from a team that won 21 games last year. This definitely looks like the most talented team in the Big West. Love their experienced playmakers in the backcourt and they aren't short on size in the post. I just think this is a steal getting them at this price. Give me UC-Santa Barbara -3! 

40* OKLAHOMA/TCU NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Oklahoma -3.5) 

I played on Oklahoma in their opener against UTSA. Sooners were a mere 15-point favorite in that matchup and went on to win by a final score of 105-66. I just don't think that was any fluke. The Sooners far exceeded expectations last year and are even stronger this year. They aren't just a good Big 12 team, they are one that can compete with the big boys of Baylor, Kansas, Texas and West Virginia. 

I just don't see them losing here on the road to TCU. Sooners won both meetings last year, including a 20-point blowout victory in the first meeting. Both times Oklahoma's offense put up big numbers, scoring 83 and 78 points. Sooners are even stronger, while the Horned Frogs look to be down a notch from last year. Give me Oklahoma -3.5! 

40* MISSOURI/WICHITA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Missouri -4.5) 

I just think the price is right to take a shot with Missouri at -4.5. I just see these two teams headed in different directions. The Tigers are poised for a breakout season with one of the most experienced teams in the country. They were a much better team than the one that went just 15-16 last year. I think we saw that in the Tigers last game, as they beat Oregon 83-75 on a neutral court. 

Wichita State had all those guys leave via transfer after last season and then came the departure of head coach Greg Marshall right before the season. I just think because the Shockers are such a big brand in CBB they are going to be overvalued early on. 

Their only game was this past Wednesday against Oral Roberts and while they won, they did so by a final of just 85-80. Just so happens that's also the same team Missouri opened the season against back on Nov. 25. Tigers beat Oral Roberts 91-64. Give me Missouri -4.5! 

40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT ATS BAILOUT (Auburn -10)

I think this is a great buy low spot on Auburn as a mere 10-point favorite against South Alabama. I know the Tigers aren't expected to be a huge threat this year, but there's plenty of talent on this team and they got a legit head coach in Bruce Pearl. We can bank on a big effort here coming off back-to-back losses to Gonzaga and UCF and no game on the schedule until next Saturday. South Alabama is 3-1, but have two wins against non-D1 teams. Their only D1 win is a mere 2-point win over FAU and they lost to Jacksonville State at home. Give me Auburn -10! 

50* NCAAB MID-AMERICAN (MAC) PLAY OF THE MONTH (Toledo -2.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Toledo as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Eastern Michigan. For starters, the Rockets are picked to finish near the top of the MAC standings, while the Eagles are picked to be in contention for one of the worst teams in the league. 

Toledo comes in at just 2-2, but their two losses are two quality teams in Bradley and Xavier. Both games they could have easily won, as they lost by 2 to the Braves and by just 3 to the Musketeers. 

While the Rockets have 4 games under their belt, Eastern Michigan has played just one game and that was last Wednesday against Michigan State. The Eagles did manage to cover as 22.5-point dogs in a 16-point loss, but it really felt like the Spartans were toying with Eastern Michigan. I definitely think not playing for more than a week is a disadvantage this early in the season. I also think that cover against Mich St has them getting a little too much love here. Give me Toledo -2.5! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (UCLA -19.5) 

This feels like the perfect spot to buy low on UCLA. The Bruins haven't exactly impressed in their first two games. They opened the season getting destroyed by San Diego State 73-58. They then needed 3OT to get past Pepperdine 107-98. It has a lot of people hesitant to lay a big number with the Bruins against Seattle, but I think they not only cover it, but cover rather easily. For the first time this season UCLA will have Jalen Hill on the court. They also might get their first action out of Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang. With their first conference game on deck Sunday against Cal, Bruins will be motivated here to show out. Give me UCLA -19.5! 

40* COLLEGE HOOPS SHARP STAKE (Oklahoma -15) 

I think this is too good a price to pass up with Oklahoma. Sooners have yet to take the court this season and I think that's playing into the favorable number. Oklahoma just seems to always get overlooked in the Big 12. No one was giving them any shot of making the tournament last year and they won 19 games and were on the bubble to make the field. This is a much better team than they had a year ago. As for UTSA, they are 1-1. Their win was against Texas Permian Basin. They lost to UT Rio Grande Valley by 17. A team that was ranked 224 in KenPom going into that matchup. These two programs have played each other each of the last 3 seasons and all 3 ended in Oklahoma wins by more than the number here. Give me the Sooners -15! 

50* BALL ST/MICHIGAN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ball State +15.5) 

I will gladly take 15.5 points with Ball State against Michigan. I just don't know how the Wolverines can be this big a favorite against a quality Cardinals team after needing overtime to beat an awful Oakland team. The same Oakland team that lost by 52 to Xavier to open the season and the next game after Michigan lost by 43 to Purdue. Most will say that the Wolverines didn't show up for that game against Oakland. If they are as good as they say, they should have beat Oakland by 20 with their "C" game. Give me Ball State +15.5! 

40* PROVIDENCE/ALABAMA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Alabama -2) 

We cashed on Alabama last night as they came alive from behind the 3-point line in a 86-74 win over UNLV. When the Crimson Tide hit their shots from deep with the pace they play at, they are extremely tough to beat. As for Providence, I expected more out of the Friars to start this season. I just don't think they are that good. They beat a bad Fairfield team and then got routed by Indiana, who looked awful against Texas. As long as the Tide don't go ice cold we should cash easy. Give me Alabama -2! 

40* ST. JOHN'S/BYU NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St. John's +1.5)

I made the mistake going against St. John's against BC. I won't make that mistake here against BYU. No way should the Red Storm be a dog against the Cougars. BYU started out 3-0 against a bunch of cupcakes. They finally played a good team last night in USC and got annihilated 79-53. I just don't see BYU being able to keep pace with St. John's. You got to be able to score against the Red Storm and that press attack. Give me St. John's +1.5! 

40* UNLV/ALABAMA NCAAB SLAUGHTER (Alabama -10) 

We cashed in Alabama in their opener against Jacksonville State, as they won by 24 as a 21-point favorite. Definitely had to sweat it out, but we shouldn't have. Crimson Tide shot just 7 of 31 (23%) from deep. They again couldn't buy a bucked from long distance in yesterday's loss to Stanford, going just 7 of 29 (24%) in a lopsided 82-64 loss. 

I think that setback will serve as a wakeup call for the Crimson Tide and have them 100% locked in here against a mediocre UNLV team. Rebels have allowed 44.7% shooting from deep in their first two games. Have to like Alabama getting on track here. Rebels allow 84.5 ppg and are only averaging 64.5 ppg. I just think we are getting a nice little discount on Alabama in this one. Give me the Crimson Tide -10! 

40* S DAKOTA/NEBRASKA NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Nebraska -13) 

I believe we are getting quite the discount with Nebraska. While Cornhusker fans are still waiting on football head coach Scott Frost to make them relevant again, I think we could be in for a breakout year for Nebraska under second year head coach Fred Hoiberg. 

As he did in his time with Iowa State, Hoiberg has hit the transfer portal extremely hard for a quick fix. I know it's early, but it looks like he's worked his magic in Lincoln. Dalano Banton (WKU), Teddy Allen (W Virginia), Lat Mayen (TCU), Trey McGowens (Pitt), Shamiel Stevenson (Pitt) and Kobe Webster (W Illinois) are the new faces. Banton, Allen and Webster all scored in double figures of their loss to Nevada. 

That game against the Wolf Pack really showed me something. I see no reason why Nebraska can't have their way with South Dakota, who in it's first two games have lost by 23 to Colorado and by 16 to Drake. Coyotes have really struggled to score and that doesn't figure to change in this one. Give me Nebraska -13! 

50* TEXAS/INDIANA EARLY BIRD *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -2) 

I cashed the UNDER in the Indiana/Providence game yesterday and I came away really impressed with what I saw out of that Hoosiers team. No one was really giving this Indiana team much respect coming into the year. Hoosiers weren't ranked and picked by many to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings. 

I see a team to watch out for. Indiana did return 4 starters from a team that won 20 games. Beat a lot of good teams, just couldn't win on the road (a lot easier to do this year with no fans). They got a star Trayce Jackson-Davis and what looks like one of the more improved players in the conference in Race Thompson. This team just made a good Providence team look really bad. 

No disrespect to Texas, who I think is going to be a force in the Big 12, but I just don't know if they are as good as people think. They just barely held on to beat Davidson 78-76 and the stat that really stood out to me is they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 78% (21-27) on two-point shots. They also only blocked 1 shot. That tells me their defense is really lacking inside and that's a problem against this Indiana team. Give me the Hoosiers -2! 

50* TEXAS ST/MISSISSIPPI ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Miss St -6.5)

I think we are getting an exceptional price here on the Bulldogs as a single-digit favorite against the Bobcats. Mississippi State comes in 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, which has definitely created this buy-low spot. I was on Clemson in their opening loss and wasn't shocked they fell to Liberty, who has shown on multiple occasions it can hang with the middle of the pack in the Power 5. 

It's also important to note that while Mississippi State lost and failed to cover in each of their first two, they were in both of those games and could easily be 2-0. Texas State has played no body. If anything there's reason to be pessimistic with them only beating Texas A&M CC by just 12 points. I look for the size and athleticism of the Bulldogs to be too much for the Bobcats to handle. Give me Mississippi State -6.5!

40* LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/MINNESOTA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Loyola Marymount +14) 

This is an interesting situation that I feel presents some value with the underdog. Minnesota and Loyola Marymount will be playing against each other for the second time in 3 days, as these two played each other on Friday at Minnesota. There's a Covid rule with the state that only allows the Gophers to play one opponent at home over a 3-day stretch, so that's why they are playing the Lions again. 

This situation presents itself in the NBA and there's usually value with the team who lost the first meeting. It makes sense. It will be tough for Minnesota to get up for this game having already beat this same team a couple days ago. As for Loyola, they should be fired up for this one. The Lions more than proved to themselves that they can hang with this Gophers team. They only lost by 15 and that was with Minnesota shooting over 50% from behind the 3-point line and Loyola -8 in the turnover department. Give me the Lions +14! 

40* ST. JOHN'S/BC NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Boston College PK)

I think we are getting a great price here with Boston College at only a pick'em against St. John's. The Red Storm are 2-0, but have been far from impressive with a mere 76-75 win over St. Peter's and a 82-65 win against La Salle. Both of which rank outside the Top 150 for me. 

BC is a team I had my eye on coming into this year and while they are just 1-1 to start, they have looked the part of a team on the rise. The Eagles gave Villanova all they could handle before eventually losing by 9 (67-76). They put that loss behind them and the very next day beat a good Rhode Island team 69-64. 

I also think turnovers could play a big role in this one. St John's has not taken great care of the ball, as they are averaging 18 turnovers/game. A mark that's high given the talent they have played. Eagles only average 12.5 turnovers. Give me the Eagles PK! 

40* COLORADO/K-STATE NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Colorado -5) 

I got no problem laying 5-points on the road with Colorado against a bad Kansas State team. The Wildcats were the worst team in the Big 12 a year ago and figure to remain in the basement of the conference this season. They certainly looked the part of a bottom feeder in their opener, as they lost at home to Drake by double-digits. The Buffaloes easily have the best player on the floor in senior guard McKinley Wright IV. He had 20 in Colorado's 23-point win over South Dakota in their opener. I look for the Buffs to really control this game from the start. Give me Colorado -5! 

40* UTAH ST/UNI NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Northern Iowa -2.5) 

Really tough loss with UNI yesterday, as they were in control the majority of that game and blew in the last few minutes. That's not going to stop me from taking them as a small favorite here against Utah State. I just don't see the Panthers starting out 0-3, especially against this Aggies team that has not been competitive in it's first two games. Utah State lost by 16 to VCU on Wednesday and by 24 yesterday to South Dakota State. Aggies allowed both teams to shoot over 50% from the field. I really think this line should be closer to double-digits. Give me UNI -2.5! 

40* UNI/ST. MARY'S NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Northern Iowa -1) 

I really like the value here with UNI at basically a pick'em against St. Mary's. Both teams lost their opener yesterday. The Panthers fell 87-93 to WKU, while the Gaels suffered a 73-56 loss at the hands of Memphis. 

I think St. Mary's is getting a bit of a pass for their lopsided loss because it came against a good Memphis team, but that game was never close. I also think the Gaels are overvalued coming off their great season last year. 

Keep in mind that St. Mary's lost their two best players in Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. Ford led the team with 21.9 ppg and Fitts was second best at 16.5 ppg. No other player averaged in double-figures. They also lost 3rd leading scorer tanner Krebs. Those 3 combined to make 204 3-pointers. The rest of the team accounted for 72. No surprise the Gaels went just 1-18 from deep against memphis. 

UNI returns two All-Conference players out of the MVC and are one of the favorites to win that conference. They are going to have a massive edge from deep in this game. They were 20 of 39 from behind the 3-point line against a very good WKU team that should win C-USA. Give me the Panthers -1! 

50* NCAAB OPENING DAY *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clemson -3.5) 

I will gladly lay a short number here with Clemson against Mississippi State. I just feel like the Bulldogs are primed to take a step back, while the Tigers are a team that is trending up in the ACC. 

Mississippi State won 20 games last year, but lost two studs in Reggie Perry and Robert Woodward. Both of which were taken recently in the NBA draft. Perry averaged 17.4 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.2 bpg. Woodward averaged 11.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg and 1.1 bpg. These are two guys that impacted the game on both sides in a big way. Perry was 6'10 and Woodward was 6'7. Hard to find big guys with that much talent when you aren't bringing in 5* recruits. 

As for Clemson, they went just 16-15 last year, but it was better than most expected. Tigers only had 1 starter back and had 3 key guys go down to injury. That to me is a sign of great coaching and some underrated guys on the roster. 

With 4 starters back and those guys that missed time a year ago, this is a Clemson team that could and should make the NCAA Tournament. Give me the Tigers -3.5! 

40* NCAAB OPENING DAY NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Alabama -20) 

Alabama was a team I was on quite a bit last year and one that I like a lot going into this season. While The Crimson Tide did lose a NBA 1st round draft pick in Kira Lewis, they have 4 starters returning and have made some key roster moves. 

Head coach Nate Oats inherited a roster that was meant to play traditional with 2 bigs, but he's more of a small ball guy that wants to push the pace and play just one big who can run, shoot and defend. He got rid of guys that didn't fit and added guys that do. I think we could see Alabama play even faster this year. 

I don't think Jacksonville State has the slightest idea of what they are about to be up against. The Jaguars only went 13-19 last season and lost 4 of 5 starters from that team. With the pace of play that Alabama plays at, I think the margin here could get out of hand. Give me the Crimson Tide -20! 

40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +5.5)

I did not see this series making it this far. I no longer think it's a lock that the Lakers win this series. LeBron just did everything in his power in Game 5 to end this thing and he was simply outdone by Jimmy Butler. I know the guy is superhuman and all, but he looked a bit drained at the end of Game 5. That's a problem. Anthony Davis is not 100% with that foot injury and it feels like he's one wrong step from being sidelined for the rest of the series. 

That's now 3 straight games in this series that have come down to the wire and Miami has won 2 of those. The Heat definitely have the momentum going into Game 6. All the pressure is on James and the Lakers. I'm really hoping Miami wins here to force a Game 7 and this price is just too good to pass up. Give me the Heat +5.5! 

40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA FINALS VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +7.5) 

I just feel that there's too much value here with Miami at +7.5 to pass up a play on them in Game 5 against the Lakers. After how bad LA played in Game 3, I really expected a more dominating performance in Game 4. It was anything but, as the Heat could have easily won that game. 

With a comfortable 3-1 lead in the series, can we really trust the Lakers to lay it all on the line in this game? We know Miami is going to do everything in their power to send this to a Game 6. I don't know if they will, but I think they have shown enough to feel confident they can keep this thing within 7 points. Give me the Heat +7.5! 

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -7) 

Props to the Heat for not just laying down and letting the Lakers win in a sweep. However, I'm not buying into Game 3 being some kind of indicator that Miami now has a chance to make this a series. 

That was 100% the Lakers not showing up to play (at least everyone not named LeBron). Anthony Davis only attempted 9 shots and posted a ridiculous -26 +/-. The other three starters outside of James, combined for 11 points on 3-13 shooting. 

The Heat ended up winning by 11, but that was just a 5-point game going into the 4th. For LA to play that poorly and have a shot is bad news for Miami. Not to mention Jimmy Butler went off for 40 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds. No way he repeats that statline. 

I fully expect to see the LA team that dominated both Game 1 and Game 2 tonight. Give me the Lakers -7! 

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA FINALS NO BRAINER (Heat +10) 

I just want to start out saying I had the Lakers -5 in Game 1. I was not surprised in the least bit that LA dominated the opener. No way LeBron was going to let them lose that game. 

Why am I switching to Miami for Game 2 after the Heat just lost Adebayo and Dragic (both listed as doubtful)? For me it's the psychology of this game. If you are the Lakers and you just dominated a team like they did and see that they are going to be down two starters, it's going to be really hard to take this Miami team seriously. 

If you are the Heat, no one is giving you a fighting chance in hell to not only make a series of it, but most think they are going to get swept. They got nothing to lose. They are going to give every little thing they have in this game to get a win. 

Will it be enough? It wouldn't shock me if they won (will likely sprinkle a little on the ML). I just think if there's a game LA is going to go through the motions, it's this one. Asking to win by 10 in this spot is asking quite a bit. 

One last thing with Miami, there's no question the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic are big, but with how well Kendrick Nunn played at the end of Game 1, I don't see a big drop off there. Kelly Olynyk and even Meyers Leonard are capable of producing for Adebayo. I also wasn't big on Adebayo in this series with all the size of LA. It was and is going to come down to Miami's 3-point shooting. I'm counting on them to get hot tonight. Give me the Heat +10

50* HEAT/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -5) 

I will gladly lay the 5-points with the Lakers in Game 1. I wasn't shocked that the Heat were able to take out the Bucks and Celtics. Those were great matchups for Miami. I just don't think they are going to be able to generate the same kind of offensive production against this Lakers team. 

Los Angeles has the bigs that can keep Adebayo in check with Howard and AD. They also got a guy by the name of LeBron to lock down Jimmy G in the 4th quarter (when Miami needs him the most). 

You also have to look at how Boston was able to repeatedly build double-digit leads against this Heat team. The Lakers are not the Celtics when it comes to playing with a lead. LA knows how to finish. I think the Heat can make a series of it with their shooting, I just don't see LeBron and company losing this game. Give me the Lakers -5! 

40* LAKERS/NUGGETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -6) 

I was mad at myself for laying the points with LA in Game 3. That was your typical go through the motion game for the Lakers and they did just that for 3 quarters. They tried to turn it on late, but it was too late. 

I'm confident we get that 4th quarter Laker team from the start in Game 4. I think there's even more incentive for LA to win here, knowing Miami is up 3-1 in the Eastern Conference. AD had two rebounds in Game 3, which tells you how locked in he was. Lakers role players also shot the ball poorly, while Denver's guys had career nights. Give me the Lakers -6! 

40* CELTICS/HEAT NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +3.5) 

I cashed on Boston in Game 3. It looked good for the Celtics in their first game with Hayward back in the mix. There's definitely something to Boston getting these big leads against the Heat, but I also don't think Miami has played close to their best. They were a dreadful 27.3% from deep in Game 3. 

I just think the extra days of rest benefit Miami more. I also still think the Heat are the better team. Watching Boston try to close out a game is dreadful. They just don't know how to share the ball. It's almost like they try to take turns making plays instead of just taking the open shot. Give me the Heat +3.5! 

40* NUGGETS/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -6.5) 

I'm going to lay it with the Lakers in Game 3. Not only are we getting the best price on LA in the series, but I think this is a good spot to fade Denver. Most will be wanting to grab the points with the Nuggets after the Lakers needed a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win Game 2. 

Thing is that's a gut-wrenching way to lose a game. Denver desperately needed that game to even up the series 1-1, to have a lead late and lose on a buzzer-beater is tough to swallow. On the flip side, Lakers got away with not playing their best and getting a win. They have shown no interest in letting teams hang around in the playoffs and it's no different here. Give me the Lakers -6.5! 

40* CELTICS/HEAT NBA NO-BRAINER (Celtics -3) 

I'm going to fire back with Boston in Game 3. This is it for the Celtics. They don't win this one, they are down 0-3 and can start packing their bags to get out of the bubble. It would be one thing if Miami had dominated the first two, but Boston has built up big leads and just not been able to hold on. 

There's been reports about things not being all great in the Celtics locker room. I'm not buying it. I think if anything it will serve as something they can rally around. Boston might not be able to make this a series, but I have to believe they deliver with their season on the line. Give me the Celtics -3! 

40* HEAT/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -2) 

I played and won with the Heat as a small dog in Game 1, but I will fire back with Boston in Game 2. It didn't look great for Miami in the majority of Game 1. They trailed by 8 after the 1st quarter and were down 12 going into the 4th quarter. Jimmy Butler hit two crazy shots or the Celtics probably win that game. 

I look for Boston to build up another big lead in Game 2, expect this time they hold on for the win. Celtics are one of the best at defending the 3-pointer and Miami shot a scorching 44.4% from deep in Game 1. I think Boston makes some defensive adjustments and tired legs could come into play after all those minutes in Game 1. Give me the Celtics -2! 

40* HEAT/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Heat +1.5)

I really like the Heat as a dog in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics. I know Boston has had three days off since that grueling Game 7 win over the Raptors, but I still think they could have a bit of a letdown going from a Game 7 to a series opener. 

Not to mention the Heat have looked the part in the playoffs. They didn't just upset the best team in the East in Milwaukee, they made them look bad. I love the depth of this Miami team and they are an outstanding 3-point shooting team. 

These two teams met up in the bubble 8-game restart for seeding and Miami won that matchup 112-106. They shot 12 more free throws, were +5 in 3-pointers made and took better care of the ball. Give me the Heat +1.5! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -2.5)

I have been pretty spot on with the series (stayed away in Game 6) and there's just no way I'm not playing the Celtics at -2.5 in Game 7. I strongly believe that Boston is the better team. They really should have already won this series. Toronto won Game 3 on a 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds left and then should have lost in Game 6 if the refs call a clear foul at the end of regulation. 

Boston has won the big games in this series, as they have never trailed. I also think both teams will be running on fumes and that hurts the Raptors a little more, as they rely more on the 3-point shot. Give me the Celtics -2.5! 

40* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets +5) 

I'm taking the points with Houston in Game 4. The Rockets have been tied or had the lead going into the 4th quarter of all 3 games so far. They got outscored in the 4th quarter by 10 points in both Game 2 and Game 3. Houston could easily be leading this series. 

LeBron and AD have been great, but outside of Rondo, the Lakers just don't have a lot of fire-power. Rondo was great in Game 3, but I got some concern with him going forward. I just wonder how good the legs are with all that time he missed. I don't see him going off for 20+ in back-to-back games. 

I really think Houston is going to find a way to win this game. They can't continue to be that bad in the 4th quarter and we could see a bit of a letdown from LA after that big win to take a 2-1 series lead. Give me the Rockets +5! 

40* CLIPPERS/NUGGETS NBA STEAMROLLER (Clippers -8) 

I'm going contrarian in Game 4 between the Nuggets and Clippers. Everyone was all over LA after they annihilated Denver 120-97 in Game 1. That tune has changed after the Nuggets took Game 2 and gave the Clippers all they could handle in a loss in Game 3. 

I just think LA is playing with the Nuggets. They have came out sluggish in both Game 2 and Game 3 and really turned it on in the 2nd half. In Denver's 110-101 win in Game 2, they held held the Nuggets to just 38 2nd half points. They held them to 19 in the 4th quarter of their Game 3 win. 

I not only think this is the game that the Clippers give us a full 48 minutes of their best, but I also think the Nuggets have to be wondering what they have to do after playing so well and still losing Game 3. 

Jokic played out of his mind and they couldn't win. As for Jamal Murray's struggles, that's 100% the effects of Beverley and this LA defense. I don't see him having one of those games like he did against the Jazz. Give me the Clippers -8! 

40* HEAT/BUCKS NBA SHARP STAKE (HEAT -4) 

Props to Milwaukee for not going down without a fight and winning Game 4, despite losing Antetokounmpo in the 2nd quarter. You just never know how a team will respond down 3-0 and it's why I stayed clear of that game. 

I just feel like this is where the Heat close the door and move on to the Conference Finals. I know Giannis is listed as questionable, but if you aren't able to come back in an elimination game, I don't know how you play two days later. Even if he does suit up, he's clearly not 100%. 

At the same time, I think Miami will have a much better game plan for Khris Middleton, who went off for 36 in Game 4. Not to mention Butler didn't play great down the stretch in Game 4. All of that and Milwaukee stilled need OT to pull out the win. Give me the Heat -4! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -1) 

I'm sticking with Boston in Game 5. The Celtics didn't come through for me in Game 4 and for whatever reason it just didn't look like Boston showed up with the right mindset. Maybe it was the 2-1 series lead or maybe it was the shock of how they lost Game 3. 

The team that wins the series almost always takes Game 5 and I still think Boston is the better team. What people overlook in Game 4, is Boston played pretty bad and yet still had a shot to win that game. They were a miserable 7-35 (20%) from deep, Kemba and Smart were non-factors offensively and Brown shot 4 of 18 (2-11 3-pts). Thing with Brown is a lot of those were wide-open shots. It's not the Raptors defense. I just think Boston delivers in this spot. Give me the Celtics -1! 

40* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -5.5) 

I'm willing to roll the dice that LeBron has the Lakers looking a little different than what we saw in Game 1. Much like their LA rivals in the Clippers, the Lakers have a tendency to let their guard down. I think they expected a more wore down Houston team after they just played a Game 7 against OKC. 

That wasn't the case. Houston was the more aggressive team. I wonder though if the Rockets can sustain that into Game 2. Would be really easy for them to be content with a 1-1 series if things get bad early. Either way I'm confident that the Lakers intensity level will be up a few notches. I also think we get a big game from someone other than LeBron or AD after the role players were a big no show in Game 1. Give me the Lakers -5.5!

50* RAPTORS/CELTICS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics +1) 

I'm shocked the Celtics are a dog in Game 4. It makes no sense. If Anunoby doesn't hit a 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds left, Boston has a 3-0 series lead. I was on the Raptors in Game 3. I just expected more from them with their backs against the wall down 0-2 in the series. 

I get Toronto was a better 3-point shooting team than what they have been in this series, but we are now 3 games into this thing. Clearly Boston has the scheme/talent to make it difficult on the Raptors to get clean looks from deep. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that Toronto barely won with Boston's best player, Jason Tatum, having a bad game. Tatum was just 5 of 18 from the field and finished with 15 points. 

Tatum had a similar bad game in Game 3 against the 76ers, scoring just 15 points on 6 of 19 shooting. Next game he went 10 of 18 for 28 points. I think he bounces back and Boston wins this one rather easily. Give me the Celtics +1! 

50* ROCKETS/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Lakers -6) 

I was kicking myself all night for not making the Clippers a premium play yesterday. Luckily I did have some action on it (check my twitter). We get the Lakers in almost the same exact scenario tonight and at a much cheaper price. 

There's a lot of talk about how the Rockets match up well with LA in terms of the fact that they should have an edge in 3-point shooting. Thing is, the same could have been said of the Blazers. I mean how much better is Harden/Westbrook than Lillard/McCollum. Harden is slightly better than Lillard at best and while Westbrook is the better all-around player, McCollum is the much better shooter. 

After losing Game 1, which wasn't a big shock given LA hadn't played a meaningful game in forever, the Lakers dominated Portland the rest of the way. 

Rockets didn't shoot great in their series with OKC either, so I'm not sure why people are expecting them to just shoot lights out in Game 1. Especially, given how gassed they have to be after playing a Game 7 two days ago. Give me the Lakers -6! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA STEAMROLLER (Bucks -5)

Before this series even started I picked the Heat to win it. I just think the value here is with Milwaukee in Game 3. The Bucks have one of the best players in the NBA and were one of the best teams in the regular-season. 

Their season is on the line tonight. They lose this game and go down 3-0, they are done for. I just think they are going to bring a different level of intensity and fight to Game 3 than Miami. I think there's some big positives in the fact that the Bucks were in Game 2, despite shooting just 43.5% from the field and only making 7 of 25 3-pointers. Give me Milwaukee -5! 

40* RAPTORS/CELTICS NBA VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Raptors -1) 

I played and won on the Celtics in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm going to reverse course and take the Raptors to win and cover in Game 3. Boston was pretty fortunate to win Game 2. They trailed by 8 going into the 4th quarter. Raptors had just 9 points in the 4th quarter with just over 4 minutes to play. 

Toronto simply couldn't buy a 3-pointer, going just 11 of 40 (27.5%). That was the difference in the game. They had 25 assists to the Celtics 18 and were +5 in the turnover department. 

I don't think the Raptors can win this series, but I like them with their backs against the wall. You know they are laying it all on the line to avoid falling behind 3-0 (series is all but over if they lose). Boston on the other hand is sitting comfortable up 2-0 and having yet to lose in the playoffs. Give me the Raptors -1! 

50* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics +1.5) 

I can't believe Boston is a dog in Game 2. I get Toronto being favored in Game 1, but after what we saw in Game 1, it's pretty clear who the better team is. It's also not like it was anything new either. Celtics have had the Raptors numbers this season. They destroyed them in the bubble 8-game restart very similar to Game 1. 

Celtics have the best player on the floor in Tatum and are simply more talented from top to bottom. I just don't see any kind of letdown here for Boston against the defending champs. Give me the Celtics +1.5! 

40* THUNDER/ROCKETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Thunder +6) 

I'm going to go down swinging with OKC. As bad as the Thunder looked in Game 5, you can't overreact to that. We saw them get beat pretty bad in Game 1 and Game 2. They bounced back and won the next two. I think the long layoff helped Houston a little more. OKC also has to get more out of Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander and Schroder. Gallinari didn't make a shot, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 4 points and while Schroder had 19, he was ejected in the 3rd quarter. Give me the Thunder +6! 

40* NUGGETS/JAZZ LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Jazz -2.5) 

I came into this series liking the Nuggets, but I think it's pretty clear after watching these teams play that Utah is the better side. Two games the Jazz lost they led in the 4th quarter. Utah has shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the last 4 games. Denver has no clue what to do defensively. I also think some of the Game 5 loss was Utah a bit too relaxed coming off 3 straight wins with a 3-1 series lead. They finish the job tonight. Give me the Jazz -2.5! 

40* CELTICS/RAPTORS NBA STEAMROLLER (Celtics +2.5) 

I was high on this Celtics team coming into the season and I'm confident they win this series with the Raptors. I got nothing but respect for Toronto, but I think this team overachieved a bit this season. Boston has the better talent. Tatum is the best player on the floor. Celtics won 3 of 4 meetings this season, including a 122-100 win in the bubble 8-game restart. Give me the Celtics +2.5! 

40* THUNDER/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Thunder +5.5)

I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the line given the news that Westbrook will be making his series debut for the Rockets. I get he's a special talent, but I don't know that Houston is as strong with him. Simply cause he takes away from what they want to do with the 3-ball, as he's simply not a threat from deep. 

I also feel like OKC has kinda figured out the Rockets defense as the series has progressed. I also think they got the scheme and talent defensively to make it hard on Houston. I'm also a big Chris Paul fan and I got a feeling he's going to play well in this one after all that's went down with the boycotts. Really think OKC has a good shot of winning this game. Give me the Thunder +5.5! 

50* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rockets -3) 

I love Houston to cover the small spread in Game 4. The Rockets were so close to have a commanding 3-0 series lead, as they had a 5-point lead with less than a minute to play. The proceeded to two turn it over twice and House missed a free throw with less than 10 seconds to play that would have given them a 1-point lead and likely the win. 

I just feel Houston is the better team, even with Westbrook sidelined. Dort has done a great job on Harden these last two games, but he still scored 38 in Game 3. Rockets were also just 15 of 50 (30%) from behind the 3-point line. It wasn't just great defense, Houston missed a lot of shots they normally make. I think a few more fall in Game 4 and they pull away late for the win and cover. Give me the Rockets -3! 

40* PACERS/HEAT NBA VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Pacers +5)

The Heat lead the series 2-0 over the Pacers and have covered both games. They won by 11 in Game 1 as a 6-point favorite and by 9 as a 3.5-point favorite in Game 2. I believe this has Miami a bit overvalued in a game that will likely be tough for them to match the intensity of the Pacers. 

This is do-or-die for Indiana. A loss here and they know there chances of winning this series are slim to none. While the Pacers have come up short in each of the first two games, they definitely got what it takes to make this a series. I'll take the points, but I really think they win this outright. Give me the Pacers +5! 

50* CLIPPERS/MAVERICKS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clippers -5) 

For many of the sames reasons that I laid the points with both the Bucks and Lakers on Thursday, I'll lay it with the Clippers on Friday. I was confident that both Milwaukee and LA would respond in a big way after their Game 1 loss. 

The best teams always bounce back and I think the Lakers/Clippers/Bucks are by far the 3 best teams. Dallas has a promising future with Doncic, but I think all the hype he's getting is helping keep this line lower than it should be. Clippers are the better team and with their backs against the wall they win this one easy. Give me the Clippers -5! 

40* NUGGETS/JAZZ NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Nuggets -1.5) 

My money is on the Nuggets to bounce back from an ugly loss in Game 2 to take a 2-1 series lead. Not a lot Denver could do in Game 2. Utah couldn't miss. The Jazz shot 52% from the field and 45% on 3-pointers (made 20!). 

I know Conley is expected back for Utah, but I'm not so sure that's a bad thing. I almost feel like Mitchell is a better when he responsible for more of the ball-handling. Give me the Nuggets -1.5! 

40* BLAZERS/LAKERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -6.5)

I'm going to back the Lakers in Game 2 against the Blazers. A lot of people are really starting to question this LA team and whether they can even win this series. Not me. LeBron will not let that happen. The Lakers are not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1. Scoring a mere 93 points against that Blazers defense is as bad as they can do. 

I also think the Lakers came into Game 1 sleepwalking. Keep in mind they were in cruise control for most of that 8-game bubble restart. Portland on the other hand has been in playoff mode since the bubble started. I not only think LA wins, but I think they win easy. Give me the Lakers -6.5! 

50* MAGIC/BUCKS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucks -12.5)

I got no problem laying the big number with the Bucks in Game 2 against the Magic. Not covering the spread in Game 1 is one thing, losing outright was an absolute shock. I just think Milwaukee wasn't giving the Magic the respect they deserve. They won't make that same mistake in Game 2. I also think it will be hard for Orlando to match the intensity in which they played with in Game 1. I am confident the Bucks send a message in this one and win here going away. Give me Milwaukee -12.5! 

50* JAZZ/NUGGETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Nuggets -4) 

I love the value here with Denver as a small 4-point favorite in Game 2 against the Jazz. I don't care that the Nuggets were lucky to cover in Game 1, as they needed OT to pull away to cover the spread. What I saw was a Utah team that looked exhausted in OT. Not to mention they couldn't win with Mitchell going off for 57 points. Pretty good chance he won't be as good in Game 2. I just don't think Utah has the goods to keep this close. Give me the Nuggets -4! 

40* BLAZERS/LAKERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Lakers -6)

There's a lot of buzz with the Blazers right now, who lived up the hype and got into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. I just wonder how much Portland has left in the tank. They are not a deep team. They won't have Collins or Little for this game. Leaving them with basically a 6-man rotation. 

Lakers went just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over their last 5 bubble games. However, a lot of that was due to them having the No. 1 seed locked up. I look for LA to flip the switch and dominate this game. Keep in mind Lakers are a great defensive team and Blazers play almost no defense. Give me the Lakers -6! 

100* HEAT/PACERS NBA TOP PLAY **GOY** (Heat -4.5) 

I absolutely love the Heat in this one. Miami matches up extremely well with the Pacers. T.J. Warren has been great in the bubble, but Jimmy Butler has made it a point to quiet the noise on Warren.

I just don't think Indiana has the depth to hang with this Miami team without a big game from Warren. The Heat just keep coming at you with their deep bench. Give me Miami -4.5! 

40* BUCKS/GRIZZLIES NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Grizzlies -2.5)

I like this price with Memphis. The game only means something to the Grizzlies. Memphis needs to win to have a shot at making the playoffs. Milwaukee on the other hand has locked in the No. 1 seed in the east. They won't have Antetokoumpo and I just don't see the other main guys getting extended minutes in the last game before the playoffs. Bucks are just going through the motions. Grizzlies might not deserve to be in with how poorly they have played in the bubble, but I think they get it done here. Give me Memphis -2.5! 

50* MAVS/SUNS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Suns -7.5)

I got no problem laying the big number here with the Suns. I'm confident Phoenix will win this game and I really think they do so in a blowout. While this game means everything to the Suns, the Mavs got nothing. Dallas is locked into the No. 7 seed. You have to think they are going to sit some their stars completely and those that do play will see limited minutes. I also look at a Dallas team that hasn't been playing much defense. They certainly aren't trying on that side of the ball in this game. Give me the Suns -7.5!

50* THUNDER/HEAT NBA TOP PLAY (OKC +1.5)

I think we are getting a steal here with the Thunder as a dog. OKC rested basically everyone of their key players but Chris Paul in their 128-101 loss to the Suns on Monday. Two guys that sat out, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari are both expected back. Could also see Nerlens Noel and Steven Adams return.

Either way, I like the depth of this Thunder team and while it might not seem like there's much at stake for either team, I think OKC wants to stay at No. 5 and face off with No. 4 Houston in the first round. You know Chris Paul definitely wants that matchup. Thing is they are just 0.5-game up on No. 6 Utah. As for Miami, they are basically wrapped into the No. 4 or No. 5 seed (no difference in the seeds). Give me the Thunder +1.5! 

50* MAVS/BLAZERS NBA BEST BET (Blazers -2.5) 

I had a pretty good feeling the Mavs were going to cover against Utah last night (tweeted out a free lean on Dallas +6.5). I just didn't see any real incentive for Utah in that game. Even with some of the star guys that sat out yesterday's game expected to suit up, there's still nothing for Dallas to play for. 

Different story for Portland. Blazers have looked really good in the bubble. They are 4-2 with their two losses coming to the Celtics and Clippers (competitive in both defeats). They would be in the play-in game if the season ended, but because of the Suns crazy start, they really need this game to ensure they make it. I just don't see the Blazers not delivering in this spot. Give me Portland -2.5! 

40* SUNS/THUNDER EARLY NBA WINNING TICKET (Thunder +5) 

I like the value here with OKC catching a decent number against the Suns. I'm aware some injury news came out after this pick was published and the line jumped. I still recommend it and bet it again myself at +8. 

I just think we are seeing a huge overreaction with the Suns, who are now the talk of the NBA after their perfect 5-0 SU and ATS start to the bubble. No question that Phoenix is playing great. I've been on them a decent amount during their start. I just think they might be overlooking a well coached Thunder team that showed us in their last game they can adapt by knocking down 18 3-pointers. Got 47 points from their bench in that game. Give me the Thunder +5! 

40* NBA NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Blazers -2) 

I'll gladly back Portland as a slim 2-point favorite against the 76ers. I think we are getting some real solid value here with the Blazers because they will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back. While some teams who are already in the playoffs might consider resting guys in a back-to-back, Portland needs every win they can get. 

Philadelphia comes in having won 3 straight, but one was a mere 2-point win against the Spurs and the other two were against the Wizards and Magic. They are also fresh off a fluky 108-101 win and cover as a 4.5-point favorite against Orlando. 

This game really doesn't mean much to the 76ers, plus I think they could be a bit down here after the recent news that Ben Simmons is done for the season. Give me the Blazers -2! 

40* NBA SHARP MONEY VEGAS INSIDER (Mavs +5.5) 

I like this spot and price with Dallas. The Mavericks have lost 3 of 4 and failed to cover all 4 of their games in the bubble. While they are all but locked into the No. 7 seed, I think there's got to be some motivation here to get some momentum going before the playoffs start. 

As for the Bucks, they got absolutely nothing to play for right now. After rallying from over 20 down to beat the Heat in their last game, Milwaukee officially clinched the No. 1 seed in the east. Considering the Bucks limited minutes on several of their key players the game before against Brooklyn, you have to believe they will be looking to do the same here. I could easily see them limiting guys minutes in this game, playing everyone in their next game against the Raptors and then resting everyone the final two against Washington and Memphis. Give me the Mavs +5.5! 

40* NBA SHARP MONEY STEAMROLLER (Pelicans -7.5) 

I'm going to give the Pelicans one more shot here to deliver a winner against the spread. New Orleans got routed 140-125 yesterday as a 4.5-point favorite against the Kings. A game you didn't expect them to lose. I think some will be scared to lay a bigger number on them today, especially given they are on no rest. 

I just think it's worth a shot. Pelicans absolutely have to have this game and the Wizards are an absolute mess. Their offense has been awful in the bubble. Nothing speaks more to their offensive struggles than them scoring just 98 against that 76ers defense in their last game. 

I think part of the Pelicans problem in the loss the Kings is they shot 57% from the field. It was coming so easy offensively that they forgot to play defense. They were also sloppy with the ball (17 turnovers). I think they lock it in on both sides in what I believe is a must-win. Give me the Pelicans -7.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Suns +2.5) 

Both of these teams have impressed early on the bubble. Both are sitting 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. I personally have been more impressed with Phoenix and would actually have them favored. I just think because Indiana had the better resume coming into the bubble, they are a bit overvalued in this matchup. 

Another thing to note about the Pacers and their 3-0 start, two of those wins were against the Wizards and Magic. The other was against a 76ers team that hasn't really looked good (Philly is playing no defense). Suns on the other hand have two really good wins against the Mavs and Clippers. 

Game also means a lot more to the Suns. While the media isn't talking about them to make the playoffs, there's no doubt this team feels like they can make it after their hot start. Indiana is in the playoffs and are basically going to be somewhere between the No. 4 to No. 5 seed in the east. With the Lakers on deck Saturday, could also see them looking ahead a little. Give me the Suns +2.5! 

40* NBA EARLY BIRD VEGAS INSIDER (Pelicans -4.5) 

I just feel like this is a great price to take a shot on the Pelicans. New Orleans finally has some momentum to build on. After dropping their first two games they got their first win with a huge 109-99 victory over Memphis on Monday. They now got a legit shot at making the playoffs. 

Not only is their momentum from winning that game, but also because the minute restriction on their best player, Zion Williamson, was bumped up to 25. There's a chance we could see that go up, but 25 is plenty for the Pelicans to create the separation needed against the Kings. I also don't like this spot for Sacramento, who are coming off a crushing OT loss to the Mavs. Give me the Pelicans -4.5! 

40* NBA PUBLIC MONEY ATS SLAUGHTER (Thunder +6)

This is just too good a price to pass up with the Thunder. Coming in off an ugly 113-121 loss to the Nuggets where they shot just 42.5%, I'm confident we get a big effort here from OKC against the Lakers. 

I don't know that Los Angeles will be able to match that intensity. With the Lakers 116-108 win against the Jazz on Sunday they officially clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. These last 5 games are absolutely meaningless. Keeping guys healthy and fresh is without a doubt their top priority now. Wouldn't be shocked at all if OKC won this game outright. Give me the Thunder +6! 

40* NBA VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Pacers +1.5) 

I don't know if it's because Indiana is playing on no rest after a game yesterday against the Wizards, but no way I'm passing up on the Pacers as a dog to the Magic. Indiana has won and covered each of their first two games, most impressive being their 6-point win as 5.5-point dog against the 76ers. 

While they squeak in a cover as a 8.5-point favorite in a 11-point win against Washington, they were up 22 going into the 4th quarter. Keep in mind Victor Oladipo didn't play against the Wizards. There's a chance he doesn't go here, but I think that was more of them not wanting to play him on back-to-backs just yet. 

As for the Magic, they are also 2-0 SU and ATS, but their two wins have come against two of the worst teams in the bubble in the Nets and Kings. I just feel like it has them a bit overvalued, as this is still a team that owns a 32-35 record overall. Give me the Pacers +1.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Mavs -5.5) 

I love this spot and price on the Mavs. Dallas should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Mavs come in at 0-2 and failed to cover both games. However, they could have easily won and covered both. They had a 7-point as a dog with 45 seconds to play and ended up losing by 4 in OT against the Rockets. They then lost a 13-point halftime lead against the Suns as a 5-point favorite.

Losing is tough to swallow and it's only magnified when the losses come in games you feel like you should have won. I still really like the talent and makeup of this team. Same can't be said for the Kings. Sacramento lost 120-129 to the Spurs in their first game and then lost 116-132 to Orlando. Kings are simply playing no defense in the bubble and I just don't think their offense will be able to keep up with a motivated Dallas team. Give me the Mavs -5.5! 

40* NBA SHARP MONEY VEGAS INSIDER (Grizzlies +5) 

I'm shocked we are getting the Grizzlies at this price. I just don't see how the Pelicans can be laying this many points with Zion Williamson on a minutes restriction. Williamson played just 15 minutes in their opener against the Jazz and only 14 in their second game against the Clippers. Both losses. 

I just don't buy that he's not capable of going more. He clearly is frustrated when he has to come out. I think protecting him and not giving the team their best chance to win, not only hurts them on the court, but I think it sucks the life out of the entire team. I trust Memphis a lot more right now and I think the Grizzlies win this one outright. Give me Memphis +5! 

40* NBA BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Thunder -4.5) 

I will gladly lay the points in with Oklahoma City in this one. Denver might have come into the bubble with third best record in the Western Conference, but this is not the same Nuggets team right now. Denver will once again be without two of their top guards in Will Barton and Gary Harris. They could also be missing second leading scorer Jamal Murray (questionable). 

Nuggets was annihilated 125-105 by the Heat in their first game, which I think speaks to where they are right now. Thunder made easy work of the Jazz 110-94 in their first game. I think OKC is on of the more underrated teams in this bubble and there's just something I like about a fresh Chris Paul in meaningful games. Plenty at stake for the Thunder. They are No. 6 in the west, but just 3 games up on No. 7 Dallas. They are also just 1.5-games back of the Denver at No. 3. Give me Oklahoma City -4.5! 

40* NBA PUBLIC MONEY ATS BLOODBATH (Wizards +8)

Big time value here with the Wizards at +8. I get Washington is easily the worst team at the bubble, but that perception is what is creating the value. A 118-110 loss to the Nets doesn't look good, but the Wizards put up a good fight (game was tied late). 

As for the Pacers, they are coming off a solid 127-121 win over the 76ers. That win may have came at a price. Victor Oladipo played 36 minutes and now is doubtful to play in this game because of the same knee that kept him out before. I just think that's a big blow to this team both on the court and mentally. 

I also question if the Pacers are really all that motivated to win in this short 8-game schedule. Indiana is currently No. 5 in the standings and no danger of falling any lower than No. 6. They are two games back of No. 4 Miami and really don't have much of a shot of getting to No. 3. Getting the No. 4 would mean you potentially get the Bucks in the 2nd round, instead of the conference finals. Give me the Wizards +8! 

50* NBA EARLY BIRD (HEAT/RAPTORS) PLAY OF THE MONTH (Heat +3) 

I will gladly take the 3-points with the Heat. While I think the Raptors are better than people think, I do think they are a bit overvalued off that 15-point win against the Lakers. That was a huge letdown spot for LA off that big win against the Clippers and pretty meaningless given the Lakers got the No. 1 seed in the west on lockdown. 

It's also worth pointing out that there were some reasons to be concerned with Toronto. Raptors were very fortunate the Lakers weren't on, as LA went just 10 of 40 (25%) from behind the 3-point line. Another thing is how the Lakers benched owned the Raptors. 

Miami was dominant in a 125-105 win against the Nuggets in their first game are one of the deepest teams in the bubble. Heat have a little more to play for, as they desperately want to get out of the No. 4 spot. Raptors are sitting pretty comfortable in 2nd, 3 games up on Boston (remember No. 2 and No. 3 aren't much different given no homecourt). Give me the Heat +3! 

40* NBA NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Grizzlies -4) 

The Grizzlies lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Blazers in their first game of the 2020 NBA restart, while the Spurs pulled off an upset win as a 3.5-point dog against the Kings. I think those outcomes have generated some decent value here with Memphis. 

I'm just not a big believer in this Spurs team, who are without LaMarcus Aldridge during this restart. They also won't have guards Bryn Forbes or Marco Belinelli for this contest, plus Patty Mills questionable. I just think the Grizzlies are the far superior team and will have no problem cashing in a win and cover on Sunday. Give me Memphis -4! 

50* NBA LAKERS/RAPTORS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Raptors +3.5) 

I absolutely love the value here with Toronto getting 3.5-points in Saturday's game against the Lakers. I really like the Raptors to win this game outright. Lakers are primed for a big letdown here after laying it all on the line against the Clippers on Thursday. With that win LA all but locked up the No. 1 seed in the West, as they have a 6.5 game lead with 7 to play. While the Raptors are sitting comfortably in the No. 2 spot, I think they will be way up for this game, as it's a real measuring stick type of game for them. Lakers have not been nearly as good against East teams as they have against teams from the West and it continues here. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Kings -3.5) 

I really like the value here with Sacramento. This is as healthy as the Kings have been basically this season and while they got a lot of work to do to get into the playoffs, they got a fighters chance. The same can't be said for the Spurs, who won't have one of their best players in LaMarcus Aldridge. They also are down Bryn Forbes and Jakob Poeltl. I just feel like Sacramento is the much better team and we basically just need them to win the game to cash this ticket. Give me the Kings -3.5! 

40* NBA THURSDAY NIGHT TNT NO-BRAINER (Pelicans -2.5) 

I really like the value here with the Pelicans as a small favorite in Thursday's game against the Jazz. There is some concern here with whether or not Zion will play (game-time decision), but the line definitely suggests the books believe he will play and he was cleared for practice earlier this week. Even if he doesn't play, I still feel like New Orleans should have the upper hand. One thing with Utah that I think people are overlooking is the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic. He was second on the team in scoring at 20.2 ppg and there biggest 3-point threat (averaged 7.3 3-point attempts/game and hit 41.4%). Give me the Pelicans -2.5! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Indiana -14) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers laying double-digits against Nebraska in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. I played against the Cornhuskers in their finale at Minnesota, which they lost by a final score of 107-75 to a struggling Gophers team. Indiana has lost 3 of 4, but two of those were on the road to Illinois and Purdue and the other was a game they should have won at home against Wisconsin. 

Big reason I played against Nebraska in the finale against Minnesota is guards Dachon Burke Jr and Cam Mack were both suspended. Burke is definitely out and Mack is also not expected to play. Cornhuskers had little chance with those guys on the floor and without them they would need to shoot lights out to keep this close. Give me the Hoosiers -14!

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Hawks -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hawks as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against the Knicks. Easy fade of New York for me, as the Knicks will be playing on no rest after a game last night at Washington, which they lost in a shootout 115-122. NY has gone 0-4-1 ATS last 5 and 2-6 ATS this season on no rest. THey are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 as a road dog. Hawks are 8-3 ATS last 13 games at home and 4-1-2 ATS last 7 as a home favorite. Give me Atlanta -4.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Oklahoma State -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cowboys as a 6.5-point favorite against the Cyclones. Iowa State is way down this year and have really struggled down the stretch after losing by far their best player in Tyrese Haliburton. Now they are likely to play without 2nd leading scorer Rasir Bolton and 4th leading scoring Prentiss Nixon figures to be playing at less than 100%. Note that any success ISU has had of late is on the road and while the Big 12 tournament has often felt like a home game for the Cyclones, I don't see it this year with how bad the team is. Oklahoma State started out 0-6 in Big 12 play, but finished 7-5 over their last 12 conference games and have won 3 straight going into this one. Give me the Cowboys -6.5! 

40* NBA SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Blazers -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Portland winning by 5 or more at home against the Suns. Big time revenge spot for the Blazers, who just lost at Phoenix last Friday 117-127 as a 3.5-point road favorite. Portland not only is basically laying the same number at home, but they will be on a full 2 days of rest here. Suns hitting the road for the first time in almost two weeks, as they just finished up a 6-game homestand. Give me the Blazers -4! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Grizzlies -2) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Magic. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Grizzlies at home. Memphis comes in having won 4 of their last 5 and during this stretch have held their opponents to a mere 95.4 ppg on 37.5% shooting. Orlando is simply getting a lot of love here because of the fact that they have covered 3 straight and 7 of 8 overall. Thing is the Magic have really taken advantage of a soft schedule. Not an easy spot here either for Orlando, playing their 4th road game in 6 days. Give me the Grizzlies -2! 

40* UNC/VA TECH ACC TOURNAMENT NO-BRAINER (UNC -4) 

I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels winning by 5 or more in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. You won't find many teams that go 6-14 in conference play, who enter their conference tournament with more confidence than UNC. The Tar Heels got healthy down the stretch and more than showed they can hang with the big boys in the ACC. Given that they have to win the ACC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels are going to play inspired. Va Tech needed double-overtime to beat UNC back on Jan. 22 and the Tar Heels were down both Cole Anthony and Brandon Robinson. UNC is simply the more talented team and playing the better basketball. Give me the Tar Heels -4!