40* CELTICS/BULLS NBA SHARP STAKE (Celtics -5) 

I got no problem laying the 5-points with Boston on the road against the Bulls. The Celtics snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 141-103 blowout win at home against the Cavs on Sunday. While Boston will be on no rest here, they didn't have a single player play more than 27 minutes yesterday and are also expected to get back one of their best players in Jason Tatum. 

The Bulls have been playing well, especially in terms of the spread, as they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14, but they did fail to cover last time out in a 90-101 loss to the Lakers. Bulls scored just 33 points in the first half and were down by 30 at intermission. They did make it look respectable with a decent 2nd half surge, but I just wonder if that wasn't the start of a poor stretch for this team. They really didn't shoot the ball well and I just don't see Boston not getting up here having lost 3 of their last 4. Give me the Celtics -5! 

50* TEXAS TECH/W VIRGINIA BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (W Virginia -1.5) 

I love the value here with West Virginia at basically a pick'em at home against the Red Raiders. The Mountaineers are 10-4 with their 4 losses coming to Gonzaga, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. They were are one of the few teams to keep it close with Gonzaga (lost by 5) and 2 of their 3 conference losses are by 4 or fewer points. 

While West Virginia will be playing on just 1 day of rest compared to a full week off for the Red Raiders, note that the Mountaineers had a 2 week break before playing on Saturday against Kansas State. They also didn't need to use a ton of energy in that win over the Wildcats, as they cruised to a 69-47 win. 

Last year West Virginia won 66-54 at home over the Red Raiders and are 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games against Tech. Give me the Mountaineers -1.5! 

40* RAPTORS/PACERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -2) 

I like the Pacers to get their revenge against the Raptors in Monday's rematch. These two teams played on Sunday and Toronto squeaked out a 107-102 win. Considering Malcolm Brogdon only had 12 points and Domantas Sabonis managed just 10 points and didn't score in the 2nd half, that's a pretty good sign that Indiana can flip the script. 

There's also a chance Toronto could be down two of their better players as both Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam are listed as questionable after not playing on Sunday. More than anything, I just feel like Indiana is the better team and will be the more motivated side at home in this one. Give me the Pacers -2! 

40* CAVS/CELTICS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Celtics -6) 

I really like Boston at -6 at home against the Cavs. I think we are getting great value here with Boston coming off 3 straight losses against a Cleveland team that has won 3 straight. Thing is the Celtics just lost back-to-back road games at Philadelphia (I was on the 76ers in both games). Even if they were healthy those two games would have been tough to win. 

The Cavs just pulled off two big upset wins at home against the Nets in Brooklyn's first two games with their Big 3 of Irving, Durant and Harden. Those were huge games for Cleveland and even more so given they had a couple guys they recently acquired from Brooklyn in that Harden trade. You also have to factor in just how bad the Nets are defensively right now with Irving and Harden both major liabilities on that side of the ball. It won't be so easy against a motivated Celtics team on Sunday. Give me Boston -6! 

40* NOTRE DAME/MIAMI NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Miami -2.5)

I like the value here with the Hurricanes as a small home favorite against the Irish. Miami is a team that I feel there's value with right now. The Hurricanes come in off an ugly 57-83 loss at Syracuse and are now just 6-7 overall and 2-6 in ACC play. What gets overlooked is this team has really battled injuries and have also played a tough schedule.

Each of their last 6 losses have come against teams in the Top 100 at KenPom. They have been much better at home in ACC play when not completely depleted. In their last 3 homes games they lost by 1 to Clemson, 2 to UNC and beat Louisville by 6. Notre Dame has been equally bad in this season, as they have lost 4 of 5, but they are coming off a 10-point win against BC, which I feel is playing into the value here with Miami. Give me the Hurricanes -2.5! 

40* NUGGETS/SUNS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Suns +2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Phoenix as a home dog against the Nuggets in a rematch from last night, which the Suns saw a double-digit lead evaporate in the 2nd half of a 126-130 loss. It's really tough to beat the same team in back-to-back games, especially on the road and I just don't think the Nuggets should be favored in this spot. 

Suns are 20-9 ATS last 29 revenging a home loss, while the Nuggets are just 4-14 ATS last 18 after covering the spread in 2 straight games and 15-29 ATS last 44 on the road after scoring 115 or more points. Give me Phoenix +2.5! 

40* PELICANS/WOLVES NBA NO-BRAINER (Pelicans -8)

I got no problem laying the big number with New Orleans on the road against the Timberwolves. It's been a disappointing start to the season for the Pelicans, who are sitting at 5-9, but we know the talent is there and I just think we are going to get a big time effort here in a game they have to feel like they have to have. 

The Timberwolves are every bit as bad as their 3-11 record, especially as long as they continue to play without their best player in Karl Anthony-Towns. The offense for Minnesota has been dreadful of late, as they are averaging just 98.8 ppg in their last 5. This is also a brutal spot for Minnesota playing on no rest after last night's ugly 116-98 loss at home to the Hawks. Give me the Pelicans -8! 

40* LSU/KENTUCKY NCAAB SHARP STAKE (LSU +1.5) 

I will gladly take LSU as a small road dog against Kentucky. If it wasn't for the brand name that the Wildcats have, there's no way they would be favored in this matchup. Kentucky just isn't very good. The Wildcats have lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-8 over their last 11 games. 

This is also a brutal spot for Kentucky coming off a crushing 62-63 loss at Georgia, where the Bulldogs hit the game-winning shot with a second to play. You might argue that LSU is also in a bad spot coming off an ugly 75-105 blowout loss at home to Alabama, but it's actually much easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat, especially one like Kentucky had where they had no business losing. Give me LSU +1.5! 

50* OHIO ST/WISCONSIN NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wisconsin -4.5) 

I absolutely love the value here with the Badgers as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against Ohio State. This is simply too good a price to pass up with Wisconsin at the Kohl Center. I don't care who the opponent is, I would lay 4.5 with the Badgers at home in conference. Wisconsin is 10-1 at home this season where they are winning by an average of 17.2 ppg. All 4 of their Big Ten home wins have come by at least 7 points. 

I get Ohio State has been playing really well here of late, but they Buckeyes did just have their 3-game winning streak snapped in a crushing 65-67 loss at home to Purdue. A game they led by double-digits and have to be absolutely sick about losing. The Buckeyes made 14 3-pointers against Purdue, but were to reliant on the outside shot shooting 35 3-pointers to just 18 2-pointers. That just won't work against Wisconsin. Give me the Badgers -4.5! 

40* CLEMSON/FLORIDA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Clemson +6.5)

I really like the value here with Clemson as a pretty decently sized road dog against the Seminoles. It's been a rough last two games for the Tigers. They went into their game at home against Virginia sitting at 9-1 and got absolutely worked by the Cavaliers 85-50. They let that loss turn into two as they laid an egg a few days later at Georgia Tech, falling 65-83. 

My money is on Clemson to fire back here with one of their best showings of the season and this is a team we know they can hang with. The Tigers already beat FSU 77-67 at home back on Dec. 29th. I get the Seminoles have been playing well and will be out for revenge, but both of those factors have been accounted for with this line. Give me Clemson +6.5! 

50* CELTICS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (76ers -4.5) 

We played and won on the 76ers in Wednesday's 117-109 win at home over the Celtics and will fire right back with Philadelphia at the same price on Friday. I know it can be difficult to beat a team twice in a row, but with the 76ers back to full strength (getting back Seth Curry tonight) and the Celtics still without one of their best players in Jason Tatum this is just too good a price to pass up. 

Celtics had no answer for Embiid in the game on Wednesday. He shot 12 of 19 from the field and 17 of 21 from the free throw line in route to 42 points. He should be in store for another big game here, as Boston just doesn't have the guys inside to contain him. I also love the 76ers getting Curry back. He was really playing well before he went out. Philadelphia is also 8-1 SU at home this year. Give me the 76ers -4.5! 

40* MARSHALL/FIU NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Marshall -8) 

I know this might seem like a big number, but I got the Thundering Herd winning this game by double-digits rather easily. This is a huge game for Marshall, who after going 6-1 in non-conference has started out 1-3 in C-USA play. 

Thing is they have played 2 of the best teams in La Tech and WKU each twice and 3 of the 4 were on the road. All 3 losses were by 8 or fewer points. FIU is 2-4 in C-USA, but have played the 12th easiest conference schedule to date. FIU doesn't have the offensive fire-power or defensive presence to keep pace with Marshall. Give me the Thundering Herd -8! 

40* COLO ST/UTAH ST NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Colorado St +8) 

I like the value here with Colorado State as a near double-digit dog in Thursday's rematch against Utah State. These two teams played on Tuesday and the Aggies rolled to a 83-64 home win. It was just a bad night shooting for the Rams, who shot just 33% from deep. Utah State on the other hand was on fire, shooting 53% from behind the 3-point line. 

Even after that game the Rams still are the much better 3-point shooting team, as they are hitting 39% as a team on the season. Colorado State is also suffered just 3 losses all season and are one of the more well coached teams in the MWC. Not only do I think the Rams shoot better in the rematch, but they are going to be the more motivated team having getting blown out in that first meeting. Give me Colorado State +8! 

50* PELICANS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans +6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New Orleans as a 6.5-point road dog against the Jazz. These two teams faced off in Utah on Tuesday and the Jazz won that matchup 118-102. Not a lot the Pelicans could do in that first meeting, as Utah went off from behind the 3-point line, hitting 21 of 47 (45%) from deep. New Orleans in comparison was just 6 of 26 (23%). 

One thing I liked from that first meeting is the fact that Utah had no answer for Zion Williamson, as he went 14 of 19 for 32 points. If he'd just got a little more help from his supporting cast, that would have been a much different outcome. New Orleans should be the much more motivated team in the rematch and I not only think they cover, but I give them a great shot here of winning the game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! 

40* WICHITA ST/MEMPHIS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Memphis -2.5) 

I think this is the perfect price and spot to roll the dice with Memphis at home against the Shockers. The Tigers come into this game a mere 6-5, but could easily be sitting with a much better record, as all but one of their defeats have come by single digits. They also only have lost once on their home floor. 

The value with Memphis in this one stems from the fact that they come in having failed to cover each of their last 7 games. I just think you have to put that aside given the small number we are dealing with.

I also like the matchup. The Tigers are 3rd in the AAC in both offensive rebound rate and free throw rate. Two things Wichita State has struggled with. The Shockers are also built defensively to take away the 3-point shot and Memphis is a team that wants to attack you inside. Give me the Tigers -2.5! 

40* HEAT/RAPTORS NBA SHARP STAKE (RAPTORS -4) 

The Raptors slow start was one of the more surprising developments early on. Toronto opened the season a mere 2-8. Some of that was bad luck, as 4 of those losses were by 5 or fewer and only 2 were by double-digits.

Raptors have finally got things going in the right direction with 3 straight wins and a big reason for that is they have got some things figured out with their rotation. Thing is I think we are still getting some value on Toronto because of how they started the year. I just can't pass up on the Raptors at this price with Miami's injury situation. We know the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley and there's a chance they won't have Tyler Herro (questionable). Give me the Raptors -4! 

40* CELTICS/76ERS NBA NO-BRAINER (76ers -4.5)

I like the value here with Philadelphia laying what I feel is a short number against the Celtics. It's been a struggle of late for the 76ers, but that's more because of covid and some injuries to guys like Embiid. Not only has Embiid been upgraded to probable, but so has Seth Curry, who might be their most underrated player. 

While Philadelphia is getting healthier, Boston is still playing without arguably their best player in Jayson Tatum. They are also adjusting to the return of Kemba Walker, who made his season debut in their last game against the Knicks. He was far from himself, scoring just 9 points in 20 minutes on 3 of 13 shooting. Give me the 76ers -4.5! 

40* MAVS/PACERS NBA ATS ANNIHILATOR (Mavs +1) 

I'm going to take the Dallas Mavericks +1 on the road against the Indiana Pacers. Both teams are coming in off an ugly loss. The Mavs got routed 116-93 at Toronto on Monday, while Indiana suffered a 129-96 loss at LA on Sunday. 

You might think that the Pacers have an edge here with rest given they will have had 2 days to prepare, while Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. I think fatigue wise both teams are going to be a little bit tired. Indiana just finished up a 4-game west coast road trip that spanned 8 days. 

The Mavs have a bunch of role players that are questionable to return, but there's a possibility they could get a couple guys back. Either way their starting 5 of Doncic, Brunson, Hardaway Jr, Porzingis and Cauley-Stein should have a big edge in this game. 

Indiana has been without one of their top scorers in T.J. Warren for a while. They also traded away another top scorer in Victor Oladipo and the guy they got in return, Caris LeVert ended up finding a mass on his kidney in his physical from being traded that has him out. On top of all that, Myles Turner has a fracture in his hand that forced him to miss their last game. 

Turner did practice on Tuesday, but I would be shocked if he played here. He's still suppose to go and get it reevaluated in a couple days and it was wrapped up pretty good in practice. It might not be the 2-3 weeks they thought, but there's no real incentive here to rush him back. 

This game also just means more to the Mavs, who after losing 3 straight are now sitting T-10th in the Western Conference. Indiana on the other hand is 4th in the East at 8-5 and just 0.5-game back of Boston for the top spot in the conference. 

Dallas has gone 27-12 ATS in their last 39 off a loss by 10 or more and are 24-10-1 ATS last 35 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Pacers have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Mavs +1!

50* KENTUCKY/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kentucky -3)

I'll lay the 3-points here with Kentucky on the road against the Bulldogs. It's been a rough go for the Wildcats this year, but they have shown some signs of getting this thing turned around. They have lost their last two games, but one was at home against an Alabama team that is looking elite and the other was on the road against Auburn. 

Both of those were bad matchups, as both of those teams are good at defending the 3-point shot, which is what Kentucky's offense relies a lot on. Georgia is one of the worst defensive teams in the SEC. They rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 13th in 3P% defense. They also are one of the worst teams at allowing offensive rebounds and Kentucky is No. 3 in the SEC in offensive rebound rate (one of the few things they do well). I just think this is a get right game for the Wildcats. Give me Kentucky -3! 

40* VCU/ST BONAVENTURE NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St Bonaventure -2.5) 

I'm going to take the St. Bonaventure Bonnies -2.5 at home against the VCU Rams. I've been on St. Bonaventure quite a bit this season and will gladly lay the short number at home with them against VCU. 

The Bonnies returned all 5 starters from a 19-win team that finished T-5th in really good A-10 conference last year. They come into this game 6-1 overall with a 4-1 mark in conference play. They have won 4 straight conference games since losing their opener on the road to Rhode Island. That includes a big road win at Richmond. 

VCU comes in having won 8 of their last 9, but it's really been a favorable stretch here with their schedule. Out of those 9 opponents during this hot streak, they have played just 1 team that's currently ranked in the Top 100 at KenPom and that was Rhode Island, who beat them on their home floor 83-68. The only other team they played in the Top 150 during this stretch was George Mason and they barely pulled out a 66-61 win against the Patriots. 

I'm not saying the Rams aren't a quality team, I just think they are a little bit overvalued in this spot. I think this line should be closer to 6 than 3. VCU is a team that causes a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot. St Bonaventure is 3rd in the A-10 in both offensive and defensive TO%, so look for the Bonnies to win the turnover battle. 

St Bonaventure should also have a massive edge on the glass in this game. They are No.1 in the A-10 in offensive rebound rate and VCU is 13th in giving up extra possessions via the offensive rebound. The Rams also tend to foul a lot, ranking 13th in opponents free throw rate and the Bonnies are 4th in the A-10 as a team with a 71.1% free throw percentage. Give me St. Bonaventure -2.5! 

50* MIAMI/SYRACUSE NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Syracuse -4) 

I absolutely love this spot and price with the Orange at home against the Hurricanes. This is huge buy low sell high situation, as you have Syracuse coming into this game off an ugly 76-96 loss at Pittsburgh, while Miami is off a huge 78-72 upset win at Louisville. 

Great win for the Hurricanes, but there's a couple of factors working against Miami in this one. The Hurricanes are still missing several key players and that will be felt on just 2 days of rest. Miami is also a team that relies heavily on their ability to drive to score and that just isn't a great recipe for success against the Syracuse zone. Orange are also undefeated on their home floor this season and we know they are showing up with a big effort here. Give me Syracuse -4! 

40* MARYLAND/MICHIGAN NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Michigan -10) 

I got no problem laying 10 points at home with Michigan against the Terps. The Wolverines were bound to suffer a loss at some point and it came this past Saturday at Minnesota. Michigan fell 57-75 in by far their worst performance of the season. It just looked like the Wolverines weren't ready to play. 

I don't see them letting that sluggish performance carry over into this game against a Maryland team they should dominate. The Terps just don't have the size inside to compete with top tier teams like Michigan. Look for standout freshman Hunter Dickinson to have a huge game, while the Wolverines defense keeps a suspect Maryland offense in check. Give me Michigan -10! 

40* PURDUE/OHIO ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Ohio State -4.5) 

I will lay the 4.5-points at home with Ohio State against Purdue. Both teams come in having won 3 straight, but I've been more impressed with the Buckeyes not just during this recent stretch but over the course of the entire season. This one is also going to mean a little extra for Ohio State, as they will be out to revenge a 60-67 setback at Purdue back on Dec. 16th. 

While Purdue has won their last 2 road games, they were 0-4 in true road games prior. The Buckeyes are a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. That includes a perfect 3-0 record in Big Ten play and all 3 of those home wins in conference play have come by at least 10 points. Ohio State is also a strong 10-1 ATS last 11 at home after a cover and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after back-to-back covers. Give me the Buckeyes -4.5! 

40* ROCKETS/BULLS NBA SHARP STAKE (Rockets -1.5) 

I'm going to lay the small number with Houston on the road against the Bulls. The Rockets aren't going to get back John Wall for this game, but Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins are set to return from injuries and Victor Oladipo will be making his debut after getting traded to Houston from Indiana. I really think this is  team that is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the Harden trade and while they aren't elite without him, there is a lot of talent on the roster. 

As for the Bulls, this is a really tough spot for Chicago. They just finished up a 13-day 6-game road trip yesterday at Dallas and are being asked to play their first game back home on no rest. I just think the jet lag is going to really hit this team hard here and with 3-days off after this game it will be really easy for them to just kind of go through the motions here. Give me the Rockets -1.5! 

40* BUCKS/NETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +2) 

Regardless if Kyrie Irving suits up for this game, I will gladly take my chances with Brooklyn as a home dog against the Nets with just the duo of Kevin Durant and James Harden. You have to completely block out what you saw out of Harden in his limited time with Houston this season. He was doing everything in his power to get traded. 

All you have to do is look at his first game with Brooklyn. Harden scored 32 points with 12 rebounds, 14 assists and 4 steals. Durant scored 42 points as the two combined for 74 in their first game together since their days way back with the Thunder. These two are going to be a nightmare to stop and I see the Nets extremely motivated here to make a statement against the Bucks on their home floor. Give me Brooklyn +2! 

50* W KENTUCKY/MARSHALL NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Marshall -2.5)

I will gladly lay the 2.5-points at home with Marshall as they take on Western Kentucky for the second time in 3 days. This time at their home court after losing 73-81 on the Hilltoppers home court Friday. Marshall only lost by 8 in that game, despite shooting just 42.3% from the field and getting outscored by 17 (19-2) at the free throw line. Look for a few more shots to fall at home, as well as a few more trips and makes at the charity line. That combined with the Herd simply being the more motivated team having lost the first matchup and it sets up for a very favorable spot and price here. Give me Marshall -2.5! 

40* HAWKS/BLAZERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Blazers -4.5) 

I know the Blazers are coming off an ugly 87-111 loss at home to the Pacers on Thursday, but that was a tough spot for Portland playing on no rest after a up-and-down 132-126 win at Sacramento the night before. I believe that loss is what's giving us such great value here. 

Atlanta is broken right now. The Hawks are missing some key pieces and Trae Young is playing with zero confidence. Atlanta comes in having lost 5 of their last 6 and the only win during this stretch was against a depleted 76ers team. Look for Lillard and McCollum to abuse Young in this one. Give me the Blazers -4.5! 

40* VIRGINIA/CLEMSON NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Clemson +2.5) 

I think we are getting big time value here with the Tigers as a small home dog against Virginia. Clemson has been one of the biggest surprises this year and this is their chance to really show everyone they are for real. Even though they already have by racking up wins over Purdue, Alabama and Florida State. 

Virginia is a really good team, but the schedule so far this year has been a bit of a joke outside of their game against Gonzaga. One they got absolutely destroyed 98-75 on a neutral court. The only other team they have faced that's ranked in the Top 80 at KenPom is San Francisco and they lost them to 60-61. They are 4-0 in ACC play, but have played the easiest conference schedule of any team to this point. Clemson is 3-1 in league play and played the 5th hardest schedule. Give me the Tigers +2.5! 

50* ROCKETS/SPURS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Spurs -6.5) 

I love the value here with the Spurs at -6.5 at home against the Rockets. These two teams just played each other at San Antonio on Thursday. It was Houston's first game since trading James Harden and they were absolutely depleted in that game. You could tell the Spurs thought they could just go into that game and win without trying. It bit them in the ass. Popovich isn't going to let them make the same mistake twice and with several key players again out for Houston, this game figures to get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Spurs -6.5! 

50* MIZZU/TEXAS A&M NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Missouri -4.5)

I got no problem laying the 4.5 points on the road with Missouri as they visit Texas A&M on Saturday. The Tigers have to be itching to get back on the court, as they have not played a game since a huge 2nd half collapse in a 63-78 loss at Mississippi State. Missouri led in that game by 14 in the 2nd half and somehow lost by 15. The Tigers only other loss was to Tennessee. 

The Aggies come in off a 56-55 win at Mississippi State, but that's nothing to get excited about. That's now 3 straight games where Texas A&M has failed to eclipse 60 points (have scored 60 or fewer in 4 of their 5 SEC games). It could get real ugly here for the Aggies offense against a hungry and talented Missouri defense. Give me the Tigers -4.5! 

40* BULLS/THUNDER NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls +1.5) 

I'll gladly take the points with Chicago as a small road dog against the Thunder. I'm expecting a big effort here from the Bulls as they are going to want to give their new head coach, Billy Donovan a win in his first game against his old team in OKC. Not only that, Chicago is playing great basketball right now. They have covered in 5 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. They also are expected to get back one of their best players in Lauri Markkanen. Plus the Bulls have a big edge in rest, as Chicago will be playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Thunder will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Bulls +1.5! 

50* NCAAB NORTHEAST CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Bryant -4.5) 

I absolutely love this spot for Bryant in Friday's rematch against St. Francis PA. These two played last night and the Red Flash pulled off the big upset beating the Bulldogs 89-82 as a 7.5-point dog. That result has Bryant now laying a full 3-points fewer in a game they are going to be much more motivated to win. Also, the Bulldogs were ice cold from 3 and St Francis had one of their better shooting performances from outside. Look for regression both ways and for Bryant to win this one going away. Give me the Bulldogs -4.5! 

40* HORNETS/RAPTORS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Raptors -7) 

A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how the heck a Raptors team that is mere 2-8 to start the season is laying this big a number against a red-hot Hornets team that has won 4 straight going into Wednesday's game against the Mavs. 

That's the big key here for me. Charlotte will be playing this game on no rest, while the Raptors will be playing on a full two days of rest. Not to mention it will be a lot easier for the Hornets to kind of look past this game given these two teams will come right back and play each other again on Saturday.  

There's also been some positive signs that Toronto is getting this thing figured out. In their last 3 games they beat the Kings 144-123, lost by just 1-point on the road at the Warriors and suffered another 1-point loss at Portland in the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday. I just think the Raptors will be the much more motivated team and things aren't as bad as it might seem with their record. Give me Toronto -7! 

40* PURDUE/INDIANA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Indiana -3)

I will lay the 3-points with Indiana at home against the Boilermakers. I know the Hoosiers are still going to be without Armaan Franklin, but this is just too good a price to pass up on Indiana at home. The Boilermakers were able to pull off an upset win at Michigan State in their last game, but they also trailed 16-33 in the 2nd half of that game before a crazy run to win 55-54. 

Purdue just isn't built to win on the road consistently in Big Ten play. They had lost each of their previous 3 games on the road. They just aren't a good offensive team. They rank 12th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 11th in effective FG%. They are also dead last in the Big Ten in TO% and second to last in free throw rate. When you can't get easy looks, give the other team easy points off turnovers and don't get to the foul line, it's hard to win on the road. Give me Indiana -3! 

50* STANFORD/UTAH NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Stanford -1) 

I will gladly lay the 1-point on the road with the Cardinal against the Utes. I don't know why the books keep giving this Utah team respect, but it hasn't worked out well for them. The Utes have failed to cover each of their last 3 games and are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games. 

Utah is 4-5 overall with 3 of those 4 wins coming against teams who are ranked 258th or worse at KenPom. The other win was against Washington, who is ranked 141st, but are also 1-9 on the season. 

Utah's one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 offensively. They are 4th in 2P% offense, but 11th in 3P% offense. That plays right into the strength of this Stanford defense. The Cardinal are 2nd in the Pac-12 in 2p% defense compared to just 11th in 3P% defense. Stanford on the other hand is one of the best offensive teams in the league and simply have too much fire-power to not take them at basically a pick'em here. Give me the Cardinal -1! 

40* GRIZZLIES/TWOLVES NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Timberwolves -2.5) 

I'm going to take the Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. I just think this is a great spot to buy low on Minnesota, who is just 1-7 in their last 8 games. One of the big reasons that Minnesota has such a poor record is Karl-Anthony Towns has played just 3 games. They are 2-1 in the 3 games he's played, which includes a 116-111 win at Utah as a 9.5-point dog. The only loss being by a mere 3-points in OT against the Spurs. 

He did sit out the rematch against the Spurs the following night, which they won, but that was simply because they didn't want him playing both games of a back-to-back. He'll be back in action for this game and we should see a fresh Timberwolves team playing on a full 2 days of rest. A spot that has favored them, as they are 4-1 ATS last 5 times on 2 days of rest. 

As for the Grizzlies, they come in having won their last two, but one of those was a win over Brooklyn minus both Durant and Irving and the other was against an absolutely depleted Cavs team. With Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr and Justice Winslow all still sidelined, this is a team that is going to struggle to win games, especially on the road. 

Grizzlies are just 1-6 ATS last 7 as a road dog, 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU win. Give me the Timberwolves -2.5! 

50* LAKERS/THUNDER NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Thunder +8.5) 

I really like the value and the spot for OKC as a big home dog against the Lakers tonight. The betting public can't get enough of the Lakers regardless of the price and they are certainly going to be on them here with the Lakers coming off back-to-back covers. 

Also these two teams were both in action last night. The Lakers got their second straight cover with a 117-110 win over Houston as a 5-point favorite. OKC on the other hand lost 102-112 as a 2.5-point home dog to the Spurs. 

Big thing on the second leg of a back-to-back is motivation and I don't think there's any question the Thunder will be motivated for their first crack this season at the defending champs and this game probably had something to do with their poor showing last night. Lakers don't care about beating teams like the Thunder and it wouldn't surprise me if they rested some guys in this one. Give me Oklahoma City +8.5! 

50* AUBURN/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia +1) 

I love the value here with the Bulldogs at basically a pick'em at home against Auburn. We are getting exceptional value with Georgia in this one because of the fact that they have lost 3 straight and most recently were annihilated by 30 at Arkansas on Saturday. 

What will go unnoticed by those that aren't die-hard Bulldogs fans is that Georgia's highly anticipated freshman guard, K.D. Johnson will be making his season debut. Johnson was one of the top rated players coming out of Georgia. He can do it all and really gives the Bulldogs an outside threat they are missing. 

Head coach Tom Crean had this to say about Johnson. “We really missed having another pure guard. I think it’s obvious. When you’re recruiting him, you’re recruiting him to play. There was no doubt he’s going to be a factor for our team.” He also added this, "He's as competitive as anybody that’s on the team. He’s strong, he has a tremendous mindset defensively, he moves the ball, he moves without it, he can shoot. He just has a contagious confidence—I’ll put it that way.”

There's also the opponent to factor in. Auburn isn't very good. The Tigers are 0-4 in SEC play and have already lost 3 games on the road to teams I think are on par with Georgia in UCF, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. Give me the Bulldogs +1! 

40* NORTHWESTERN/OHIO ST NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Northwestern +8.5) 

Northwestern burned me in their last game, as I took them +8 at home against Illinois and was counting my money at the half with the Wildcats up by 15. That will teach me to count my eggs before they have hatched, as Northwestern was outscored 53-13 in the 2nd half and ended up losing by 25. 

That would be enough for most people to not want anything to do with a team, but I'm out to get that money with Northwestern and will take them at +8.5 at Ohio State tonight. A team they already beat this season at home 71-70. 

I really like the fact that the Wildcats have been off since last Thursday. That's more then enough time to put that ugly 2nd half against Illinois behind them and get them refocused for this big game against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is good, but not great and are still without starting point guard C.J. Walker. Give me Northwestern +8.5! 

40* NC State/Florida St NCAAB SHARP STAKE (FSU -3.5)

I'm going to take the Florida State Seminoles -3.5 at home against the NC State Wolfpack. I believe we are getting some value here with Florida State as a small home favorite due the fact that they have been out of action for over 2 weeks. Seminoles haven't taken the court since losing at Clemson 67-77 back on Dec. 29th because of Covid. 

I know rust can be a concern for a team that has had this much time off, but I don't think it will be as big a factor as some might think. In fact, I think we are going to see a fresh and hungry Florida State team take the court Wednesday night. 

This is a very talented Seminoles team that started out the season 4-0 with impressive wins over both Indiana and Florida. Florida State is also a team that rarely loses on their home floor. Seminoles have won 18 straight home games and each of their last 3 at home against NC State. 

As for the Wolfpack, they come in with a 6-3 record, but have lost their last two. Their 6-1 start was aided big time by a soft schedule, as 4 of their first 5 opponents were against teams who are currently ranked 245th or worse at KenPom. Their two conference wins also came by just 2 points against UNC and BC, so this team could easily be 0-4 in league play. 

Wolfpack are 11th in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency, 11th in the ACC in giving up offensive rebounds, 13th in free throw percentage and 11th in defending the 2-point shot. FSU is 4th in the ACC in effective FG% and 4th in 2P%. They are also No. 3 in the conference in defending the 3-pointer and No. 4 in 2-point defense. I just think it all adds up to a comfortable home win for the Seminoles. Give me Florida State -3.5! 

50* PACERS/WARRIORS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Warriors -3) 

I will gladly lay the 3-points at home with Golden State as they get ready to host the Pacers. The Warriors got off to a really slow start, but have got things rolling here of late. Golden State is 6-2 SU over their last 8 games and have covered 4 of their last 5. 

The biggest factor here is the scheduling spot for the Pacers. Indiana just opened up a 5-game west coast road trip last night at Sacramento. A game they lost 122-127. The big key here is the Pacers basically used a 6 man rotation in that game as all 5 starters played 30 or more minutes and McDermott also logged 30 of the bench. No other player played more than 15 minutes. I just don't see the Pacers haven't enough gas in the tank for this one. Give me the Warriors -3! 

40* ALABAMA/KENTUCKY NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Kentucky -2)

I really like the Wildcats here as a small home favorite against the Crimson Tide. Kentucky comes in having won 3 straight and just annihilated Florida on the road 76-58, but are still undervalued by the books because of their 4-6 overall record.

Not to mention Alabama comes in having won 5 straight, which includes a big road win at Tennessee. I've been on the Crimson Tide a lot early, but I think this recent success has them getting too much respect in this spot. Alabama will be on just two days rest, playing their 2nd straight on the road and this is simply a different Kentucky team right now. Wildcats are playing with a chip on their shoulder and this is a statement game against the Tide. Give me Kentucky -2! 

40* NUGGETS/NETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Nets +1) 

I will gladly take Brooklyn at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Nuggets tonight. The Nets will again be without Kyrie Irving, but they got back Durant in their last game and should have more than enough to take down Denver in this spot. 

The Nuggets are getting a lot of love from the books here as they have won 4 of their last 5 and are off a 114-89 thrashing of the Knicks on Sunday. Thing is it couldn't have been much easier for Denver in this 5-game stretch. They played the Timberwolves twice without Karl Anthony Towns, played the 76ers without several starters and the Knicks. The one good team they played in this stretch was the Mavs at home and they lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite. 

You also have to look at the spot here for the Nuggets. It's far from ideal, as Denver will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Nuggets are just 8-22 ATS last 30 off 2 straight wins and 7-20 ATS last 27 on the road off a win by 10 or more. Give me the Nets +1! 

40* DUKE/VA TECH NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Virginia Tech +2) 

I will take the points with the Hokies at home against the Blue Devils. I just think Duke is overrated. This is not the same caliber a team as recent years and while they have started out 3-0 in ACC, they have played arguably the 3 worst team. 

The Hokies are by far the best team they will have played in league play. Va Tech is 3-1 in ACC play and the only loss was a mere 2-point setback at Louisville. Biggest thing here for me is Duke's defense. Blue Devils rank 15th in the ACC in 3P% defense and 14th in 2P%. Really hard to win on the road when you don't defend at a high level. Give me the Hokies +2! 

50* BUTLER/ST JOHN'S BIG EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (St. John's -2) 

I love the Red Storm here as a small 2-point home favorite against Butler. Neither of these teams have been all that impressive of late, as St John's is just 1-5 in their last 6 (all conference games). The Bulldogs are just 3-6 on the season. 

I just haven't liked what I've seen out of this Butler team. They haven't won a game away from home all season and have struggled to keep it close on the road in Big East play. St John's 1-5 start is a result of them playing 4 of their first 6 conference games on the road. Their only home loss in league play came to a really good Creighton team. I just think St. John's is the better team and should be a bigger favorite at home in this one. Give me the Red Storm -2! 

40* GRIZZLIES/CAVS NBA STEAMROLLER (Grizzlies +1) 

Most are going to run to back Cleveland here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against a Memphis team they just beat on the road last Thursday 94-90 as a 6-point dog. I like the Grizzlies in this spot. I just think Memphis will be the much more motivated team here with that short-term revenge. 

Not only could the Cavs struggle to get up for a team like the Grizzlies who they just beat on the road a few days ago, but this is historically flat spot for them. Cleveland just finished up a season-long 6-game road trip on Saturday. The jet lag from that trip will really be setting. Memphis on the other hand has had little to no travel of late with their last 4 games at home and they had 2 days off leading up to their trip to Cleveland. Give me the Grizzlies +1! 

40* UCONN/DEPAUL NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (DePaul +5.5) 

I'll take a shot with the Blue Demons as a 5.5-point home dog against the Huskies. This might seem like a favorable line to back UConn given the Huskies absolutely routed DePaul at home 82-61 back on Dec. 30th, but I see it the other way. I think that result has created a favorable line here for the home team. 

One thing that will get overlooked with that first matchup is the fact that DePaul was in a horrible spot, playing on just 2 days of rest after a double-overtime game at Providence. Now it's UConn that's in the tough scheduling spot, as the Huskies will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 7 days and are on just 1 day of rest after a game at Butler Saturday. 

The Huskies could also be down their best player in James Bouknight, who is questionable to play with an elbow injury. Bouknight didn't play against Butler on Saturday, so you have to wonder if another day will be enough to get him back. If it comes out that he isn't playing, this line is sure to drop. With or without him, I like the Blue Demons in this spot. Give me DePaul +5.5! 

40* THUNDER/NETS NBA ATS CASH COW (Nets -9) 

I will gladly lay the 9-points here with Brooklyn at home against the Thunder. We know for sure the Nets are going to have Durant for this game and I'm confident that Irving is going to suit up as well. These are going to be extremely fresh and this Brooklyn team needs to get back on track after losing 5 of their last 8. 

As for OKC, this feels like the perfect time to jump off the Thunder bandwagon. OKC has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games, but I just haven't been impressed. The Thunder did not shoot the ball well during this stretch. This is also their 5th straight road game in a 9 day stretch. The gas tank has to be on empty and I just think the Nets are going to put this team away early and really take the fight out of the Thunder. Give me Brooklyn -9! 

40* CINCINNATI/WICHITA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Wichita State -2) 

I love the value here with the Shockers as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Bearcats. I just feel like this Wichita State team is one of the more underrated teams right now and Cincinnati might be one of the most overrated.

The ATS results of these two teams certainly backs that up. The Bearcats are just 2-7 ATS on the season, while Wichita State is 4-2 and come in having covered their last 4. I just think because Cincinnati comes in off a 76-69 upset win as a 5.5-point dog at SMU, the line here is much lower than it should be. Wichita State's 6-3 with their 3 losses against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Houston, who are all sitting in the Top 50 in KenPom's rankings. Not to mention they were competitive in all 3 losses and have 3 other wins over Top 100 teams. Give me the Shockers -2! 

50* LSU/OLE MISS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (LSU +2) 

I will gladly take my chances here with LSU as a small road dog against the Rebels. LSU bounced back from that ugly loss to Florida with a 94-92 OT win at home against Georgia. I think it's big for the Tigers to win a game like that against the Bulldogs when they didn't play close to their potential. 

They should have a much easier time here against Ole Miss. The Rebels are off to a strong 6-3 start, but their only win against a team in the Top 100 was Wednesday's home win over a mediocre Auburn team that is just No. 81 in KenPom's rankings. In their other 3 games against Top 100 teams they lost at Dayton, were routed at Alabama by 18 and lost at home to Wichita State. 

Also Rebels come in ranked No. 12 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, but that's a very misleading stat, as their defense dominated a bunch of bad teams early in the year. In their two recent losses they gave up 82 to Alabama and 83 to Wichita State. LSU is one of the best offensive teams in the country. Ole Miss won't be able to keep up. Give me the Tigers +2! 

40* SUNS/PACERS NBA SHARP STAKE (Pacers -3) 

I just can't pass up a play here on the Pacers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Suns on Saturday. The books continue to undervalue this Indiana team and those that have been on the Pacers' bandwagon have profited nicely, as they enter this game 6-2 ATS. 

The biggest factor here is rest. The Pacers are going to be fresh having played their last game at home on Wednesday. So they have had no travel and 2 days off to get ready for this game. Phoenix on the other hand is playing in the second leg of a back-to-back road set after last night's game at Detroit. The spot gets even worse, as their game against the Pistons went to OT. I just don't see the Suns having enough in the tank to pull off the upset here. Give me the Pacers -3! 

40* HEAT/WIZARDS NBA ATS MASSACRE (Heat -5.5) 

I'm expecting a big time effort out of the Heat and an easy cover on the road against the Wizards Saturday. Jimmy Butler called out his team after their most recent loss to the Celtics and if that doesn't light a fire under this team, I don't know what will. 

One thing is for sure, Butler is going to show up and I look for him to come out looking to make a statement against Washington's Bradley Beal who is coming off two monster games (60 points on Wednesday and 41 last night) and leads the league in scoring at 34.3 ppg. 

Rest should definitely give Miami the upper-hand in this game. The Heat will be playing on 2 days rest, while the Wizards are playing in the second leg of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Give me Miami -5.5! 

40* USC/ARIZONA ST NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (USC -1.5) 

I will lay the short number with USC on the road against the Sun Devils. The Trojans come into this game off one of their best showings of the season, as they went on the road and defeated Arizona 87-73. I look for them to make easy work of a tired and deplete Arizona State team on Saturday. 

While the Sun Devils will likely get back their star player Remy Martin, they have several other guys out and have to be running on fumes after Thursday's OT game against UCLA. Arizona State basically used a 6 man rotation for that game. They had 4 different players play at least 41 minutes and two other plays account for 41. The rest of the team logged only 12 minutes. 

USC is just too talented for ASU to beat them, even at home in this spot. Look for the Trojans to take control of this early and really pull away in the 2nd half. Give me USC -1.5! 

40* MIAMI/NC STATE NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami +6.5) 

I really like the value here with the Hurricanes catching 6.5 on the road against the Wolfpack. Miami is showing value here due to the fact that they come in having lost 3 straight and are just 1-5 in their last 6. The first two losses in this stretch of game against Florida Gulf Coast and Pitt were a result of Miami being short-handed with a bunch of guys out. 

They have since got healthy and while they haven't been able to finish on top of the scoreboard, they have been really close of late. In Miami's last 3 games they have lost by 2 at Virginia Tech as a 9-point dog, lost by 1 at home to Clemson as a 4.5-point dog and by 2 at home to UNC as a 3.5-point dog. 

As for NC State, they come in off a 70-74 OT loss at home to Clemson. A game they were fortunate to keep close. The Tigers shot just 9 of 30 (30%) from behind the 3-point line and were a mere 3-9 from the free throw line. The Wolfpacks only other two games against a Top 100 team were two 3-point wins at home against BC and UNC and a 11-point loss at St. Louis. I just don't think NC State is deserving of laying this kind of number here. Give me Miami +6.5! 

40* BULLS/LAKERS NBA LATE NIGHT ANNIHILATOR (Bulls +10)

We will gladly take the double-digits with the Bulls against the Lakers on Friday. Chicago has been an absolute covering machine of late. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. They have won 4 of those 7 games outright as a dog, including 3 where they were a dog of 6 or more. 

Not only are we getting the Bulls playing some of their best basketball, but this is a really tough spot for the Lakers. LA will be playing on no rest and their 5th game in the last 8 days. For a team that had almost no offseason, they have to be running on fumes.

I know they haven't really rested LeBron or AD a lot in these back-to-backs but I wouldn't be shocked if they did it here. LeBron hasn't missed a game yet and AD has only missed one. This would be the ideal spot against a lessor opponent and a day off tomorrow before they go back on the road for 3 more games Sunday-Wednesday. Give me the Bulls +10! 

50* HORNETS/PELICANS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans -6.5) 

I think this is the ideal spot to back New Orleans as a relatively small home favorite against a bad Charlotte team. We are getting value here because of the fact that the Pelicans have lost and failed to cover each of their last 2 games, plus the fact that the Hornets come in off a huge 102-94 upset win over the Hawks as a 6-point dog on Wednesday. 

Thing with Charlotte's win over Atlanta was that was more of the Hawks playing awful than anything. Hornets only shot 38% from the field in that win and have now gone 4 straight games where they have shot worse than 42% from the field. That's not going to cut it on the road against a team like New Orleans. In those previous 3 awful shooting performances they lost by at least 15 in all 3 games. Give me the Pelicans -6.5!

40* PURDUE/MICH ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Michigan St -4.5) 

I will gladly lay the 4.5-points at home with Michigan State against the Boilermakers. The Spartans had that ugly 3-game losing streak to start out Big Ten play, but they have rebounded nicely of late. They snapped the skid with a 84-77 win at Nebraska and in their last game absolutely destroyed Rutgers 68-45. 

Shockingly that was Michigan State's first cover since they beat Duke 75-69 as a 5.5-point dog back on Dec. 1. I believe their recent struggles is definitely keeping this number lower than it should be. Purdue is simply not as good as they have been in recent years. They have lost all 3 of their road games and are just not built to win many games on the road in the Big Ten. Spartans stay hot. They win and cover easy here. Give me Michigan State -4.5! 

50* ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern +8) 

I'm shocked at the value we are getting here with Northwestern as a 8-point home dog to Illinois. I get the Wildcats got brought back to reality in their last two games, getting routed on the road by both Iowa and Michigan, but those are two of the best teams in the Big Ten.

A lot of teams are going to get destroyed when they visit those two arenas. I know Illinois is another great team, but getting them at home is a completely different story. I'm not saying the Fighting Illini won't win, but I definitely think this game is going to come down to the wire. Give me Northwestern +8! 

40* 76ERS/NETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Nets +2) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* INDIANA/WISCONSIN NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Wisconsin -7.5) 

I got no problem laying 7.5-points with Wisconsin at home against Indiana. Wisconsin is going to be extremely fresh for this matchup, as they haven't played since Dec. 31st. Not to mention the Badgers are one of the toughest teams to beat at home in the Big Ten. 

There's also the fact that an Indiana team that struggles to score is expected to once again be without one of their best scorers in sophomore Armaan Franklin. This is also a tough matchup for the Hoosiers best player, big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. Wisconsin has all kinds of size and are one of the best teams in the country (8th) in 2-point % defense.

With how much Indiana struggles from behind the 3-point line, it's going to take an absolutely dreadful shooting performance by the Badgers for them to not win here by double-digits. Give me Wisconsin -7.5! 

40* BULLS/KINGS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Kings -7) 

The Bulls +10 was my 50* Top Play for Tuesday and they didn't disappoint winning outright at Portland. Now it's time to fade Chicago. The Bulls will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back on the road on the west coast. The jet lag is going to be creeping in and for a team that isn't very good defensively they need those legs to keep games close. 

Another big factor here is they are running into what should be an extremely motivated Kings team. Sacramento has lost 3 straight and were absolutely embarrassed in their last game at Golden State (lost 106-137). I think all signs here point to a blowout in favor of the home team. Give me the Kings -7! 

50* CELTICS/HEAT NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Heat -2.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Miami as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Celtics. Boston was able to beat the Raptors with a depleted roster in their last game and I think it has them overvalued in a really tough spot. Celtics are playing their 4th straight road game and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 4th in the last 6 days. 

Miami's been up and down to start the season, which was to be expected after their deep run to the NBA Finals and short offseason. They absolutely dominated OKC in their last game 118-90 and there's no doubt in my mind we get a max effort here against a team like Boston, especially with the game being televised on ESPN. This is also just the 2nd game in the last 5 days for Miami, so they are going to be the much fresher team here. Give me the Heat -2.5! 

50* GEORGIA/LSU NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (LSU -9)

I played on LSU in their loss Saturday against Florida. The Tigers lost the game by 4 as a 1.5-point dog. LSU was in control early and just let it slip away. That will happen, but it makes me like them that much more in this game. They will be 100% locked in for this game against the Bulldogs. 

Georgia is 7-1, but all 7 of those wins came in non-conference play and they didn't play anyone good. The best team they faced was Cincinnati, who is 2-6 right now. The Bulldogs showed what they are made of losing at home by double-digits to Mississippi State. It's not getting any better on the road against an even better team in LSU. I also love that Georgia likes to play fast, as that plays right in the strength of the Tigers. They win here by 10 no problem. Give me LSU -9! 

40* ST. JOE'S/ST BONAVENTURE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (St Bonaventure -12) 

I got no problem here laying the 12-points with the Bonnies at home against St. Joseph's. This is an extremely talented and deep St. Bonaventure team that returned all 5 starters from last year. After losing a game they should have won on the road against Rhode Island, the Bonnies responded with a huge upset win on the road against everyone's favorite pick to win the A-10 in Richmond. 

Now the Bonnies are set to play their conference home opener (also first home game since Dec. 19th) against a St. Joseph's team that hasn't won a game, as they come in at 0-7. The Hawks play absolutely no defense. St. Joseph's has given up 81 or more points in every game they have played and really hurt themselves because they combine that no defense by playing at a frantic pace. The Bonnies will have this thing covered by half and easily win this by 20+ points. Give me St. Bonaventure -12! 

50* BULLS/BLAZERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls +10) 

I will gladly grab double-digits with Chicago in Tuesday's road game against the Blazers. The Bulls got off to an ugly start with a 20 point loss to the Hawks at home followed by a 19-point home loss to the Pacers. Outside of an ugly showing at Milwaukee on New Year's Day they have really played well of late, winning 3 of their last 4 outright. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. 

Billy Donovan was a very underrated hire for this team and it was to be expected that this team was going to be more competitive. The Blazers are just 3-4 with only one of those 3 wins coming by double-digits. Portland has really struggled shooting the ball. They come in having shot a mere 43.5% from the field in their first 7 games and are riding a 3-game streak of shooting 43.5% or worse. They are also giving up 119 ppg and have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 47% or better. 

Another thing to note here with Portland is the scheduling spot. Blazers just finished up a 4-game road trip and are on just 1 day of rest. I really think we could see a flat Blazers team struggle to pull away. Give me the Bulls +10! 

40* FLORIDA/ALABAMA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -2.5) 

We cashed with Alabama +10 in Saturday's 71-63 outright win on the road against No. 7 Tennessee and will gladly fire back with the Crimson Tide as a small home favorite against the Gators. I lost going against Florida in the Gators 83-79 win over LSU, but my same concerns with the Gators remain and that's them not having one of their best players in Keyontae Johnson. 

It's one thing to overcome an injury like that at home. It's a lot harder on the road. I just don't see Florida being able to keep pace with this fast-paced offense of Alabama. The one thing that really plagued the Tide early on was their 3-point shooting, but they have made at least 10 from deep in each of their last 3 games. Look for them to stay hot from the outside, as Florida's defense comes in ranked 261st in KenPom's 3P% ranking. 

Alabama is also a perfect 6-0 ATS last 3 seasons when listed as a home favorite of 3-points or less and 12-3 ATS last 15 when coming into a game after back-to-back covers. They have also covered 9 of their last 11 vs a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Give me the Crimson Tide -2.5! 

40* MAVS/ROCKETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Rockets -3) 

I'll gladly lay the short number at home with the Rockets. Houston has won 2 straight after dropping their first two. The thing you have to remember is they were decimated in those first two games with a bunch of guys out because of Covid. They have recently got back John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. Ben McLemore and Kenyon Martin Jr. will be added to the mix for this game and James Harden is expected back after he sat out their last game with an ankle injury. 

Dallas is in the second game of a back-to-back. They were without their Luka Doncic in last night's 108-118 loss to Chicago. Donic is listed as questionable, but I wouldn't be shocked if they rested them in this one with two days off after this matchup. Dallas is also still without Porzingis and are just 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS to start the season.

I know there's a lot of talk with Harden getting traded, but I also think it's what is giving us value with Houston right now. This is a very good team with the roster as is. Give me the Rockets -3! 

50* CAVS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -5) 

I will gladly lay the 5-points with Orlando at home against the Cavs. This is a great spot to jump on the Magic, who have lost their last two after an impressive 4-0 start to the season. Poor shooting is to blame for both recent losses, as they shot just 35% from the field in a 24-point loss to the 76ers on New Year's Eve and 37% in Saturday's 9-point setback to the Thunder. 

This is a team that averaged a solid 120.3 ppg in their 4-0 start and shot 48% or better from the field in 3 of those games. I'm confident Orlando gets back their stroke in this one. 

As for the Cavs, they have surprised some people by starting out 4-2. Two of those wins have come against bad teams in the Hornets and Pistons. They did beat the 76ers, but Philly was playing on no rest and rested Embiid. Their most recent win over the Hawks was also misleading, as Atlanta was on no rest after laying it all on the line in their previous two games against the Nets. Give me the Magic -5! 

40* NUGGETS/WOLVES NBA SHARP STAKE (Nuggets -8.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number here with Denver on the road against the Timberwolves. This feels like the ultimate buy low spot for the Nuggets, who at 1-4 have been one of the biggest disappointments early on in the NBA season. 

Given their slow start, we can bank on a max effort here from Denver as they have to feel like this is a must win. Minnesota wasn't going to sniff the playoffs with the roster they brought into the season and are playing right now without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns. In their last game without Towns they got absolutely destroyed by the Wizards 130-109 and Washington was without Russell Westbrook and hadn't won a game coming into that matchup. 

If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Nuggets, they should win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Denver -8.5! 

40* OHIO ST/MINNESOTA NCAAB ATS MASSACRE (Minnesota +1) 

I will gladly take the Gophers as a home dog against the Buckeyes. No way should this Minnesota team be getting points at home against Ohio State. This to me just feels like a complete overreaction to what happened in the last game for both of these teams. 

Ohio State crushed Nebraska 90-54 at home, while Minnesota lost 59-71 on the road to Wisconsin. Neither of those results should be all that surprising. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the conference. The Badgers are one of the best and extremely tough to beat on their home floor. 

We have already seen the Gophers take down Iowa and Michigan State at home in Big Ten play, they also beat a really good St Louis team at home. Ohio State has lost both of their road games to Purdue and Northwestern. Give me Minnesota +1! 

40* ALABAMA/TENNESSEE NCAAB SLAUGHTER (Alabama +10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Crimson Tide +10 at Tennessee. The Volunteers are 7-0 and off a dominant 73-53 win over a ranked Missouri team and I believe it has resulted in quite a big overreaction by the books with the line here against Alabama. 

It would take a red-hot shooting performance for the Crimson Tide to win this game, but with the way they can score, I don't think it's asking a lot for them to keep it within 10 points. Alabama has really only had one bad showing and that was a 18-point loss to Stanford early. They have since beat quality teams like Providence and Ole Miss. They also lost by just 8 to a really good Clemson team on a neutral floor and did so despite going just 3 of 22 (13.6%) from long distance. Give me Crimson Tide +10! 

40* PURDUE/ILLINOIS NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Illinois -8) 

I got no problem laying single digits with the Fighting Illini at home against the Boilermakers. I'm just not all that impressed with Purdue. Outside of a 7-point win at home against Ohio State there's not a lot to get excited about. Also, the Boilermakers are a team that can surprise people at home, but so much has to go right for them to be competitive on the road. 

In their two Big Ten road games they lost by 15 to Iowa and that was with the Hawkeyes having one of their worst offensive games of the season. They also just lost by 5 at Rutgers with the Scarlet Knights down some key players to injury. 

Illinois got off to a bit of a slow start with 3 losses in their first 8 games, but all of those were against top tier teams in Baylor, Missouri and Rutgers. All 3 were also played away from home. Fighting Illini come in having won their last two and I look for them to cruise to a victory here. Give me Illinois -8! 

40* KINGS/ROCKETS NBA ATS MASSACRE (Rockets -4.5) 

I played on the Rockets -5.5 in Thursday's home game against the Kings and came up painfully short, as Houston ended up winning by just 3. Normally I would look to take the team that lost the first meeting in these back-to-back games against the same opponents, but I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Houston. 

John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Gordon all made their season debuts in that game on Thursday and while Cousins didn't do a lot, Wall scored 22 with 9 assists and 6 boards. Gordon came off the bench and put up 17 points. This is going to be a lethal offense as they get more and more comfortable with each other. I just don't think the Kings can keep pace offensively in the rematch and there's no reason for Houston to not show up with a 1-2 record. Give me the Rockets -4.5! 

40* LSU/FLORIDA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (LSU +1.5) 

I will back LSU at basically a pick'em on the road against the Gators. This Tigers team has been impressive to start the season. LSU features one of the most lethal offensive attacks in the country. The Tigers have scored at least 77 points in every game they have played. They are 5th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage. 

Florida is a good team that comes in at 4-1 with their only loss on the road to a good Florida State team. However, the Gators lost arguably their best player, Keyontae Johnson, in that loss to the Seminoles. They were able to win their first game in blowout fashion without hi, but that came against a bad Vanderbilt team that is extremely weak on the defensive side of the ball. I just think we are another game or two away before the books make the proper adjustments on this Florida team without Johnson. As long as LSU doesn't have an awful shooting game here, they should win rather comfortably. Give me the Tigers +1.5! 

40* MISSOURI/ARKANSAS NCAAB EARLY BIRD NO-BRAINER (Missouri +7) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Missouri as a near double-digit dog on the road against Arkansas. It's easy to see why this line is off as we are getting a big overreaction to the Tigers 20-point (53-73) loss at home to Tennessee. That was just a bad game for Missouri, who got blitzed out of the gate and could never recover. Not to mention that's an elite Volunteers team. 

Arkansas enters this game a perfect 9-0 and as impressive as that may appears, it's come agaisnt the 284th strength of schedule. The Razorbacks have played just 1 team in the Top 100 and that's Auburn. They did beat the Tigers by 12, but also gave up 85 in the process. Missouri will be the best team they have faced and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright. Give me Missouri +7! 

40* LAKERS/SPURS NBA STEAMROLLER (Spurs +7) 

I'll take my chances with San Antonio covering the 7-point spread at home against the Lakers. These two teams played each other in San Antonio on Wednesday, which LA won 121-107. Not a big surprise given that game was played on LeBron's birthday. 

I just have a hard time seeing the Lakers being all that interested in the rematch on New Year's day. These regular-season games just don't mean that much to this team. On the flip side of this, the Spurs are going to be locked in for this game. I don't know if they will be able to pull off an outright win, but I'm confident they keep it respectable and cover this number. Give me San Antonio +7! 

40* MARSHALL/LA TECH NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Marshall -1) 

I will back the Thundering Herd at basically a pick'em on the road against Louisiana Tech. I've really been impressed with Marshall early on. They are 6-1 and their only loss came in OT at home against a Toledo team that is ranked in the Top 100 at KenPom. This hot start is no surprise. Marshall returned a lot from last year team, which really took off in the 2nd half. 

Louisiana Tech only returned 1 starter, but have managed to start out the season 7-2. However, it's a very misleading record, as the Bulldogs have 6 wins against teams that are ranked 293rd or worse at KenPom. Their best win is a 6-point victory over No. 162 UT Arlington. Marshall is No. 82. The only team they have played in the Top 100 is LSU and they got annihilated 86-55. Much like LSU, Marshall likes to play fast and are lethal on the offensive side. Give me the Thundering Herd -1! 

40* KINGS/ROCKETS NBA SHARP STAKE (Rockets -5) 

I'm willing to roll the dice with Houston as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Kings. Not a  lot of positives coming out of the Rockets camp early on this season. They got the James Harden drama, as well as a Covid outbreak. They just lost by 13 at Denver in their last game, the same Nuggets team the Kings have already beat twice. I'm sure that will have convince some to take Sacramento here, but not me. 

Rockets will be getting back 3 of their best players in Eric Gordon, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. Both Wall and Cousins have made it clear they are out to prove something this year and while James Harden might be a headache, he's averaging 39 ppg and 12.5 apg thru the first two contests. I also think people are sleeping on the addition of Christian Wood, who is averaging 27 ppg and 8 rpg. Give me the Rockets -5!  

40* UTAH/UCLA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCLA -7) 

I got no problem laying the points with UCLA at home against Utah in Thursday's Pac-12 matchup. The Bruins haven't played since losing to Ohio State on Dec. 19th. I believe the long layoff came at a good time for Mick Cronin's team and with them coming off a loss to snap their 5-game winning streak, I'm expecting a fired up UCLA team tonight. 

Bruins only other loss was in their season opener at San Diego State, who is turned out to be much better than anticipated. They have played 4 games at home and all 4 have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Cal and Marquette. 

Utah is 4-1, but they really haven't played anyone. Three of their wins are against 3 awful teams in Idaho St, Utah Valley and Idaho. All at home. They did beat Washington by 14 at home in their season opener, but the Huskies are 1-6 with a 15-point loss to UC Riverside and a 8 point loss to Montana. The best they have played is BYU and they lost 64-82 on the road. UCLA is better than BYU. Give me the Bruins -7! 

40* 76ERS/MAGIC NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Magic +3)

I will gladly take the points with the Magic at home against the 76ers. Orlando is locked in to start the season. They were not happy about the lack of respect they were getting and while they aren't an elite team, they are very talented and effort can get you a long way in this league. 

I just have a hard time buying the 76ers being all that interested for this game. Philadelphia is coming off a huge win over the Raptors that they stole away from Toronto late. Sitting at 3-1 and this being New Year's Eve, I got a good feeling the 76ers will be eager to just get this game over with and get back home, where they will play 3 straight after an off day tomorrow. Give me the Magic +3! 

40* MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Wisconsin -8.5) 

This is going to seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying in this on. Wisconsin just lost their last game at home to Maryland 64-70 as a 7.5-point favorite. That was a Terps team that was winless in Big Ten play. Now they are an even bigger favorite against a Minnesota team that comes in having won 3 straight, over St Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. The line here really tells you everything. 

The big thing to note with those 3 straight wins for the Gophers is all 3 came at home. The Gophers only road game (haven't played any on a neutral court) was at Illinois back on Dec. 15 and they lost that game 65-92. 

I just think Minnesota is walking into a death trap here against a pissed off and motivated Wisconsin team coming off a loss. Give me the Badgers -8.5! 

40* BC/NC STATE NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Boston College +9.5) 

I really like the value here with Boston College as a near double-digit dog against the Wolfpack. NC State is coming in off a big win over in-state rival North Carolina last time they took the floor, but they almost blew that game, winning by 3 after leading by as many as 17 in the 1st half. The only other team they have played in the Top 230 at KenPom is St Louis and they lost by 11, giving up 80 to the Billikens. 

Boston College comes in with a record of just 2-5, which is where the value with this line stems. However, the Eagles have played the 12th toughest schedule in the country so far. Out of their 5 losses, 4 have come against teams who are currently ranked in the Top 30 at KenPom. The other was a mere 3-point loss to a good St. John's team. They took Villanova down to the wire losing by just 9 and took Minnesota to OT on the road in a 5-point loss. This is a game they can win outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Heat +6) 

We played and won easily with the Bucks -5.5 in yesterday's 144-97 blowout win on the road over the Heat. You could see how much that game meant to Milwaukee after Miami knocked them out of the playoffs in the bubble. It didn't help the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. I know he's questionable to play tonight, but even if he doesn't suit up, I like Miami in the rematch. 

I just think the roles have been completely flipped in this second meeting. It's now the Heat who are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder. As for the Bucks, it's going to be hard for them to take that same approach to this game after how easily they won last night. There's a reason the books have set almost the exact same line for this game. Give me the Heat +6! 

40* NOTRE DAME/VIRGINIA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Virginia -5.5)

I got no problem laying the 5.5 with Virginia on the road against Notre Dame tonight. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers as a short favorite, as we can bank on a huge effort from Virginia coming off that embarrassing 23-point loss (75-98) loss to Gonzaga.

You just can't read into a loss like that, as Gonzaga looks like they are by far the most complete team right now. This is still an extremely talented Cavaliers team that are once again elite defensively and got some pretty good options on the offensive side of the ball. 

Notre Dame has played some quality teams tough, losing by 10 to Michigan State, by 5 to Ohio State, by 10 to Duke and by 10 to Purdue. I just don't think any of those teams are on the same level as Virginia. I just don't think the Irish are strong enough defensively to beat a team like the Cavs who are so tough to score on. Give me Virginia -5.5! 

40* BUCKS/HEAT NBA TNT NO-BRAINER (Bucks -5.5) 

I will take my chances here with Milwaukee as a 5.5-point road favorite against the Heat. There's a lot of reasons to like the Bucks in this one. For starters, Miami won't have their best player on the floor, as Jimmy Butler has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. 

This is also a big game for Milwaukee after losing 2 of their first 3 games, including an ugly 20-point loss at New York in their most recent game. Bucks also will be out for revenge, as Miami was the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in the bubble back in September. Give me Milwaukee -5.5! 

50* FLORIDA ST/CLEMSON NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Clemson -1.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Clemson at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Seminoles. The betting public doesn't see it that way. All they see is the No. 18 team getting points against an unranked opponent, which is why I feel there is so much value. 

I don't know why Clemson isn't ranked to be honest. The Tigers are 6-1 with 4 quality wins over Mississippi State, Purdue, Maryland and Alabama. The only loss coming by 6 points on the road to Virginia Tech and that was just a bad shooting night, as they were just 38% from the field. 

If KenPom had a say they would be ranked, as they are the No. 20 in their rankings. Florida State would also be ranked, but they have them at No. 25. Factor in home court and the elite level defense that head coach Brad Brownell has this team playing and I feel they win here easily. Give me the Tigers -1.5!  

50* ROCKETS/NUGGETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Nuggets -6.5) 

I'm probably going to avoid playing Denver a ton early on, as I just think the Nuggets came into this season a little overvalued off their run to the Western Conference Finals in the bubble. With that said, this is one spot I'm willing to back them. 

This is a really big game for Denver after starting out the season 0-2 and both of those losses coming at home. We should get their very best in this game. As for Houston, I think people see the Rockets covering the big number at Portland with all those guys out and are quick to grab the points here. That is a Blazers team that lost by 20 at home to the Jazz in their opener. 

The other big thing here is you have a depleted Rockets team with all those guys out with Covid protocols playing their second road game in 3 days in the thin air of Denver. This to me feels like a spot where Houston really has trouble matching the intensity of the Nuggets and if the outside shots don't fall it could get real ugly. Give me Denver -6.5! 

40* NETS/HORNETS NBA NO-BRAINER (Nets -8.5) 

I got no problem laying the big number on the road here with Brooklyn against Charlotte. The Nets have been arguably the most impressive team out of the gate, as they completely destroyed the Warriors 125-99 in their opener and then backed that up with a 123-95 win on the road against the Celtics. I really think this is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference if they stay healthy. 

As for the Hornets, they are 0-2 having lost 114-121 at Cleveland and 107-109 at home to Oklahoma City, two teams that don't figure to sniff the playoffs this year. On top of that, Charlotte's game against the Thunder was yesterday, so they will be playing this game on no rest. There's going to come a time when Brooklyn might look past a team like the Hornets, but I don't think that's going to be the case here. Give me the Nets -8.5! 

40* DRAKE/INDIANA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Indiana St +4) 

I think the line here tells you everything you need to know that the Sycamores are the play. Drake comes into this game with a perfect 9-0 record and have also gone a perfect 6-0 in their games with a line posted. The betting public won't be able to help themselves with the Bulldogs laying a short number against a Indiana State team that is 3-2 with a couple of double-digit losses to Purdue and St Louis. 

The thing is, Drake has played a cupcake schedule to start the season. In fact, the Bulldogs strength of schedule at KenPom ranks a mere 311th. The only team they have played that's ranked in the Top 215 at KenPom is Kansas State and they are awful. Drake is going to suffer that first loss sooner rather than later and I actually think they should be a dog in this matchup. Give me the Sycamores +4! 

40* 76ERS/KNICKS NBA ATS STEAMROLLER (Knicks +9) 

The Knicks are another team that I was impressed by in their opener. I know they ended up losing and failing to cover in a 121-107 loss to the Pacers, but there's was a lot of positives in that game. New York scored 66 points in the 1st half and led by 5. If not for a dreadful 3rd quarter that final score would have been much closer. 

R.J. Barrett looked like he's really worked on his game. He was 11 of 15 (3-3 from 3), scoring 26 points with 8 boards and 5 assists. Tom Thibiodeau is the new head coach and he's going to at the least get this team to play hard. 

Philadelphia is a hot commodity after bringing in Doc Rivers, but you never know what you are going to get with this team on the road. I certainly wasn't blown away in the 76ers 113-107 win against the Wizards in their opener, as they needed a 40-24 edge in the 4th quarter to win that game. Give me the Knicks +9! 

40* HAWKS/GRIZZLIES NBA SLAUGHTER (Hawks +1.5) 

There's been a few teams that have really impressed me early on in the NBA. One of those is the Hawks and I just don't think as many people are on the Atlanta hype train yet. The public isn't going to get excited about the Hawks beating the Bulls on the road. 

The thing is, they didn't just beat Chicago. They annihilated them. They won the game 124-104 and that doesn't do justice to how lopsided the matchup was. Atlanta had 83 points at the half, scoring 42 in the 1st quarter and 41 in the 2nd quarter. This Hawks team made some big time additions in the offseason to go with their talented core. After finishing with the 2nd worst record in the east, this is 100% a playoff team if they stay healthy. 

I like Ja Morant and will be on this Memphis team down the road, but right now they are missing two huge pieces in Jaren Jackson Jr and Justice Winslow. As good as Morant is, he needs those two for this team to compete with the better teams. Give me the Hawks +1.5! 

40* OHIO ST/NORTHWESTERN NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Northwestern +3.5) 

I'll take the points with Northwestern at home against Ohio State. The Wildcats have shocked everyone with their 2-0 start to Big Ten play. First they destroyed Michigan State 79-65 at home as a 8.5-point dog, then on just two days rest went on the road and upset Indiana 74-67 as a 9-point dog.

I get we aren't getting near double-digits this time around, but I really think the Wildcats should be favored at home in this one. Ohio State is 7-1, but I still got my concerns with this team. I think they are good, but not as good as what their record and ranking would suggest. They lost by 7 on the road to Purdue in their Big 10 opener and needed a crazy 2nd half run to come back and beat Rutgers at home. Give me the Wildcats +3.5! 

40* CLIPPERS/NUGGETS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -2) 

I really like the Clippers as a small road favorite against the Nuggets in the Christmas Day finale. There's few teams that wanted this season to start more than the Clippers after their collapse in the bubble. Not only that, but there's a whole new energy with this team after parting ways with Doc Rivers. 

The Clippers couldn't have asked for a better schedule to start their season. They get to open it up against the Lakers and spoil their ring celebration and now on Christmas Day they get their chance at revenge against the Nuggets, who they blew that 3-1 lead against.

I like this Denver team, but they didn't look right in their opener. Nuggets lost at home to the Kings and I think some of that is them not quite ready to start the new season. Give me the Clippers -2! 

40* WARRIORS/BUCKS NBA NO-BRAINER (Warriors +10.5)

I'll take a shot here with the Warriors at this price. Most are going to run to the ticket window to fade Golden State after what they saw in their opener against the Nets. I get it. That was not what a lot of people were expecting from this team with Curry back in the mix. 

Head coach Steve Kerr called out the will to win after that game and that's a big part of why I like Golden State in this game. I just feel confident we are going to get a 10 out of 10 in terms of effort. We should also see better shooting from the Warriors. Given how much they rely on the 3-ball, they aren't winning many games going 10 of 33 (30.3%) from long distance. Expect more 3-pointers to fall against a Bucks team that gave up 18 3's to the Celtics

I also think we could get Milwaukee a bit flat here. They saw how bad the Warriors looked and have to think they can win this game without trying. On top of that, they used up a lot of energy playing from behind the majority of that game against Boston. I think the Bucks win, but GS keeps it close. Give me the Warriors +10.5! 

50* MARYLAND/PURDUE NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Purdue -5) 

My favorite play on Christmas Day is the Purdue Boilermakers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Terps.  Great spot to back Purdue off a 15-point loss at Iowa. While they didn't come close to covering, I thought the Boilermakers played well in a tough spot on the road. They are just not a team built to upset an elite team like the Hawks away from home. 

Things should be much easier for Purdue at Mackey Arena on Friday against a Maryland team that isn't anywhere close to what it's been in recent years. Terps got off to a strong 4-0 start against a cupcake schedule, but then lost by 16 at Clemson and by 14 at home to Rutgers. I just think like Purdue, it's going to be hard for Maryland to be competitive on the road against the majority of the teams in the Big Ten. Give me the Boilermakers -5! 

40* W ILLINOIS/DEPAUL NCAAB SLAUGHTER (DePaul -15.5) 

I think we are getting a bit of a steal here with DePaul as they just now playing their first game of the season. Coming off a 16-16 season where they went just 3-15 in Big East play isn't exactly something to get excited about. But I like the direction this program is headed and I think they got some nice new pieces that could have them taking a big step forward. 

One thing is for sure, they are going to be itching to get on the floor for this game. The effort that we can expect should be enough on it's own for them to cover this spread against Western Illinois, who is currently the 338th ranked team at KenPom. The only legit team the Leathernecks have faced is Iowa and they lost by 41 points. It's really not asking much for DePaul to win here by 20. Give me the Blue Demons -15.5! 

40* PURDUE/IOWA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Iowa -6.5) 

I will take my chances here with the Hawkeyes making easy work of Purdue at home in their Big Ten opener. I'm not concerned with Iowa coming off that crushing loss to Gonzaga. I know it wasn't the outcome they wanted, but there were some positives. Iowa lost to the No. 1 team by only 11-points, despite shooting 4 of 22 (18%) on 3-pointers and going 14 of 26 (54%) from the free throw line. 

I just think there's enough of a veteran presence on this team that they aren't going to let that loss carry over into their conference opener, especially at home. Purdue is a good team, but just aren't built to compete with an offensive juggernaut like the Hawkeyes. Give me Iowa -6.5!

50* LOUISVILLE/PITT ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Louisville -3) 

This is an easy play for me on the Cardinals as a slim 3-point favorite at Pittsburgh. I love backing good teams off a bad performance and Louisville definitely falls into that situation after getting absolutely destroyed on Saturday in a 48-85 loss to Wisconsin. 

One thing to keep in mind in that ugly showing against the Badgers, is Louisville was without their best players in senior Carlik Jones. He's the one guy they can't do without. He leads the team in scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (7.0 rpg) and assists (5.3 apg). He's going to be back for this one and that should be enough for them to win this game on the road against Pitt. 

The Panthers are 5-1 and just beat Miami by 15 at home in their ACC opener. That was however a misleading victory, as the Hurricanes have been decimated with injuries. While Pitt is slowing improving, I don't think they can handle a locked in Cardinals team. Give me Louisville -3! 

40* CINCINNATI/UCF NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCF +2.5) 

There's just no way Cincinnati should be laying points on the road in this one. This is a rebuilding year for the Bearcats after all the talent they lost and it's shown in their play so far. Cincinnati has lost 3 straight and are just 1-4 to start the season. They just lost at Georgia by 15 as a 1.5-point favorite. I just feel like the books are slow to adjust to this team. 

As for UCF, the Knights are coming off their second statement win in 3 games. UCF started out the season with a 63-55 win at home against Auburn. They got their butts kicked at Michigan, but just won on the road against FSU 86-74 as a 14.5-point dog. UCF has a go-to scorer in senior Brandon Mahan and are getting big time production out of sophomore Darin Green and freshman Isaiah Adams. 

Free throw shooting could be the difference in this one. Cincinnati is shooting just 63.4% as a team from the charity line, while the Knights are 85.7%. Bearcats are also shooting just 25% from behind the 3-point line, while UCF is at 36%. Give me the Knights +2.5! 

50* SAN JOSE ST/UTAH ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Utah State -18.5) 

I have high expectations for Utah State in the Mountain West this year and I'm confident the Aggies will be locked in for their conference opener tonight against San Jose State, who is right there with Air Force as the worst team in the league. 

Utah State is just 3-3, but two of those defeats came on a neutral court to quality teams in VCU and South Dakota State. The other is a mere 3-point loss to a very good BYU team. San Jose State has played one team that's even respectable and that's St. Mary's. The Spartans lost that game by 35 points (trailed by 40+ with less than 3 minutes to play), giving up 96 to the Gaels. I just don't think it's asking much for the Aggies to win this one by 20 at home. Give me Utah State -18.5!