50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I know we just saw these two fly past the total in Game 3, but that was simply a result of the Warriors not bringing the energy on the defensive side of the ball. Raptors were getting way too many layups, which in turn upped their confidence and I believe led to them going 17-38 (44%) from deep. They were +5 on 3-pointers over the Warriors. They were just 11-38 (29%) in Game 2, so we should expect to see regression from Game 3. Golden State can't go down 3-1 with 2 of the next 3 in Toronto. They have to win, which means max effort defensively. I think the same applies for the Raptors. If they are serious about dethroning the champs they need to win this game with Durant out and Thompson at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER! 

50* RAPTORS/WARRIORS GAME 3 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 213.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 3. It took an unthinkable scoring drought at the end of Game 2 for that to stay UNDER the total. I think that has a lot of people going back to the OVER in Game 3. Not me. Durant has already been ruled out and I think there's a decent chance that Klay Thompson doesn't play or plays at way less than 100%. We saw how hard it was for the Warriors to score once Thompson went out and I think the effort is going to be there for Toronto, especially on the defensive end. I could easily see both teams not getting to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 213.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 6 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 212.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 6. We cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER in Game 5 and I think we are going to see a very similar type of game tonight. I could actually see it being even more low scoring. Raptors defense has been great all playoffs and Milwaukee has no choice but to give everything they got on that side of the ball facing elimination. Easily see both teams fail to get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 5 of the Raptors/Bucks series. The last 3 in the series have gone OVER the total, but two of those were results of blowouts and the other is a game that went to double-overtime. I just think with the thing tied 2-2 and how good these two teams are defensively, we are going to see this thing stay well below the number here. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 4 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Under 217.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 4. Each of the last two in the series have gone OVER the total, but Game 3 going over was a joke. It was 96-96 at the end of regulation, which is a total of 192. The two teams proceeded to score 38 more points in two overtime periods to finish with 230. As much as people want to focus on the offensive stars, these are two elite defensive teams and this game is massive, as we either have the Bucks go up 3-1 or Toronto tie it up at 2-2. Both teams are going to bring it tonight. Give me the UNDER 217.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 209.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raptors and 76ers staying UNDER the total in Game 7. I honestly don't think either team is going to reach 100 points. Keep in mind that in the first 3 games played in Toronto, Philadelphia has managed to score just 95, 94 and 89 points. The 76ers defense has been hit or miss, but we know we are getting a max effort in a winner take all scenario. Give me the UNDER 209.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 4 on Sunday. These two have stayed UNDER the total in each of the first 3 games of the series and the UNDER is 7-1 in Toronto's 8 playoff games and 6-2 in the 76ers 8 games. Philadelphia seems to have figured out this Raptors offense and it just got easier with Siakam unlikely to play. As for Toronto's defense, the energy wasn't where it needed to be in Game 3. I'm pretty confident the intensity will be there as they try to avoid going down 3-1 and tie this thing up at 2-2 going back to Toronto. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 221)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Game 2 between the 76ers and Raptors. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 1, which closed with a total of 223. The game stayed under the mark by 20-points, even with the two teams combining for 70 points in the 1st quarter (280 pace). The most points the Raptors have allowed in the postseason so far is 104 and that was Game 1 of the first round against the Magic. Since then they have gone 5 straight not allowing more than 96. I expect more of the same with a much better effort on the defensive side from Philly. Give me the UNDER 221! 

50* VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH SHAPR MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 118) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER, as I just don't see any reason to overthink this one. You have arguably the two best defensive teams in the country facing off. Neither team likes to push the pace and both have their limitations on the offensive side of the ball. Texas Tech only combined for 112 in their win over Michigan State and Virginia's victory over Auburn saw just 125. I think this could be really tough to watch for those that don't like defense, as I think it could be a race to 50 points. Give me the UNDER 118. 

50* FINAL FOUR PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 132) 

I'm shocked this total is in the 130's. I'll gladly take my chances it stays below the mark. Michigan State surprised everyone by beating Duke, but they only managed 68 points on 43% shooting in the win. The Blue Devils play good defense on just their talent. Texas Tech's defense is on a whole different level. 

All Michigan State has to do is ask their biggest rival in Michigan, who the Red Raiders held to a mere 44 points and 33% shooting. Michigan State's offense might be a little better than the Wolverines, but not by much. 

Spartans are also a very strong defense team and I just think it's going to be a struggle for both sides to reach 50 points and this total is basically asking both teams to score 66. Give me the UNDER 132! 

50* NIT SEMIFINAL *MAX BET* TOP PLAY (Over 150.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Tuesday's NIT semifinal action between  Wichita State and Lipscomb. For those that haven't watched the Bisons, they have one of the best players you haven't heard of in Garrison Mathews. The guy just put up 44 points against NC State. He can really do it all, as he made 14 shots in total, including 8 from behind the 3-point line. He's playing out of his mind in the NIT and I think the assumption here is that Wichita State is going to be able to shut him down. 

I don't think so and as long as Mathews plays well, this thing should easily eclipse this total. Not only is Mathews a prolific scorer, but this Lipscomb team plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country. They are also a very unselfish team (24 assists on 34 made field goals vs NC State). They have scored at leas 86 in all 3 NIT games and given up 80+ twice. 

Note that while the Shockers aren't giving up a ton in the NIT, they have played 3 teams that don't like to push the tempo in Indiana (216th), Clemson (252nd) and Furman (231st). The closest thing to Lipscomb that Wichita State has seen in terms of pace is Memphis (7th). Both meetings saw at least 159 points and both times Memphis got to 85 points. Also, Tigers won both of those games, so I would definitely lean Lipscomb for those wanting to play a side. I just see more value in the total. Give me the OVER 150.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 219 in Monday's NBA action between the Jazz and Hornets. Charlotte is playing a lot of young guys and are getting abused on the defensive side of the floor here of late. Hornets just let the Warriors shoot 60% from the field for the game and have allowed 56% or worse in 3 of their last 4. Utah is known for their defense, but have scored 110 or more in 10 straight. I think this easily eclipses 220. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218) 

I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side. 

Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 157.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Buffalo and Toledo going OVER the mark set by the books. These two teams played at Buffalo back in early January and combined for 190 points in a 110-80 win for the Bulls. I just don't see a change in venue being enough for the Rockets to slow down this high-powered Buffalo offense, which is averaging 85.2 ppg and shooting 47% from the field in conference play. However, I could see Toledo keeping pace at home, as the Rockets are scoring 78.7 ppg at home. OVER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls last 9 road games in the month of February. Give me the OVER 157.5! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234) 

I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* NBA CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 218.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with these two Central Division rivals going UNDER the mark set by the books. The UNDER has cashed in 7 straight games involving the Pacers and is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 as well. A big reason for that is both teams are getting it done on the defensive end. Milwaukee is allowing just 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and Indiana is only giving up 97.8 ppg. Both teams are holding opponents under 43% shooting in their last 5. Bucks won by 17 at home way back on Oct. 19, but the UNDER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 when revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 218.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 216 in tonight's NBA action that has the Rockets visiting the Jazz. Utah is coming off a game where they set a new franchise record with 20 made 3-pointers and shot 61% from the field on their way to putting up a 139 points against the Spurs. Houston's defense has been slipping of late, but the offense has also picked up and I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two to hit at least 220. OVER is 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a win by 15 or more and 8-1 in their 9 home games this season. Give me the OVER 216! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 219)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Kings and Grizzlies combining for at least 220 points. I think we are getting value here with Memphis coming off a dreadfully low-scoring game in their 92-84 win at Utah. Kings have combined for at least 238 points in all 4 games and have shot at least 50% from the field in every game. They are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back, but this is a very young team and it's really early in the season, so I don't think it will effect their play at all. Opposing teams are shooting 51.5% against Sacramento, so Memphis will have no trouble getting their offense going. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 227.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 227.5 in Tuesday's NBA action between the Kings and Nuggets. Denver has held each of their first 3 opponents under 100 points, which I believe is keeping this total much lower than it should be. I don't see the defensive effort being there for the Nuggets in a big time sandwich game. Denver is off a home win against the Warriors and have LeBron and the Lakers on deck Thursday night on TNT. Not to mention the Kings are the perfect team to back for the OVER. Sacramento is playing at the fastest pace in the league and are one of the worst in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 212.5) 

As you can tell by the spread, the books aren't expecting a close game in Game 6, as the Warriors are laying close to 13-points at home. While I wouldn't be shocked if Golden State covered the big spread, given they are facing elimination and the Rockets are without a key piece in Chris Paul, I think the real value is with the total. After combining for just 187 points in Game 4 and 192 in Game 5, we have seen the total drop almost 15 points from Game 4 to Game 6. I just think Houston is looking more ahead to Game 7 at home and won't be as good defensively here, especially with Paul sidelined. Golden State is also due for an offensive explosion and I think we see them get to around 220 with Houston doing more than enough to push it over the mark here. Give me the OVER 212.5

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Celtics and Cavs staying UNDER the mark of 206.5 set by the books. These two teams combined for 113 points in Game 4 to go OVER the total for the first time in the series. Most will just assume this will be another high-scoring game, but the first two games in Boston suggest otherwise. The Celtics were a completely different team defensive in Games 1 and 2 at home, holding the Cavs to 83 and 94 points respectively. I think Cleveland once again has trouble to score away from home. I also think with how big this game is that we get another big effort from the Cavs on the defensive end to keep Boston from going off. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we saw both teams fail to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 195.5) 

I'll take my chances with Game 7 between the Celtics and Bucks finishing UNDER the mark set by the books. This series has really shifted to a defensive battle. After combining for at least 206 in each of the first 4, they scored just 179 in Game 5 and 183 in Game 6. The Bucks have held the Celtics to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last 4 games and Boston held Milwaukee to a mere 87 points on 37% shooting last time these two played at the Garden. With this being a winner-take-all scenario, I think the pressure and defensive intensity from both sides will have this game finishing in the 180's. Take the UNDER 195.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 223.5) 

My money is on the Bucks and Nuggets going OVER the total set here by the books. Milwaukee has seen the OVER go 10-1 in their last 11 games, as they continue to light it up on the offensive side and struggle to defend on the defensive side. The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in 9 of their last 11 games and have allowed 100+ in all 11. The Nuggets are in a similar boat, as the OVER is 4-1-1 in their last 6. During this 6-game stretch Denver is averaging 120.7 ppg and allowing 118.8 ppg for an average combined score just under 240. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 197)

My money is on the UNDER in this one, as we have the Jazz hosting the Grizzlies. Memphis comes in off back-to-back upset wins over the Timberwolves and Blazers and their defense played a big part in both of those wins. The Grizzlies held Minnesota to just 93 points on the road and followed that up by allowing just 103 to Portland. Those are two of the better offensive teams in the league. While the defense has been much better of late, the offense is still a mess. Memphis is averaging just 97.2 ppg over their last 5 games, a stretch in which they have also shot just 43.4% from the field. Utah is an elite defensive team, especially at home, where they are giving up just 96.9 ppg and holding teams to just 43.5% shooting. Coming off an upset loss at home to a short-handed Boston team and the Jazz far from safe in the west playoff race (currently 8th), I think we get a big effort here from the Jazz and this game stays well below the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 197! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 194.5) 

My money is on Wednesday's NBA action between the Celtics and Jazz going UNDER the mark set by the books. Boston has been hit hard with injuries. They are without both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart and aren't expected to have Marcus Morris for this game against the Jazz. Morris has been one of the Celtics best scorers with Irving out, as he leads the team with 18.3 ppg in the month of March. I just have a hard time seeing Boston being to get much of anything going offensively on the road against the Jazz, who are one of the league's best defensive teams, especially at home, where they are allowing just 96.9 ppg and holding opponents to 43.5% shooting. While The Celtics offense figures to struggle, I expect them to play hard defensively, which has been a staple of this team under Stevens. I don't see either team reaching the century mark in this one. Give me the UNDER 194.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 221.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Knicks/Hornets going UNDER the mark set here by the books. Charlotte is averaging 109.6 ppg over their last 5, but that's a bit misleading, as they had a 140 points in 1 game against the Grizzlies. That's the only one of the five that went OVER the total. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the Knicks last 5. With New York playing well and the Hornets fighting for their playoff lives, I look for a much lower-scoring game than what the books are expecting with this number in the 220s. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

50* WEST REGION SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 143) 

My money is on Thursday's game between San Diego State and Houston finishing under the mark set here by the books. Both of these teams are built around their defense. Only Cincinnati posted a better defensive efficiency in the AAC than the Cougars. Houston not only plays great defense, but they do an excellent job of limiting second-chance points. That's going to make it tough for San Diego State to score. The Aztecs were the best defensive team in the MWC, thanks in large part to their length. All that size is great, but if you can play good defense like Houston does, you can make it really hard on San Diego State to score, as they aren't a great 3-point shooting team. I just think this is the ideal recipe for a low-scoring grind it out type of game and we are getting a great price to back the under here. Give me the UNDER 143! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5)

My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 141) 

I'll gladly take my chances with Monday's Notre Dame/Miami matchup going UNDER the total here of 141. Both of these teams expected to be sitting better than they are at this point in the season, but each has struggled to cope with the loss of one of their best players. For Miami they lost Bruce Brown. Notre Dame not only lost an NBA talent in Bonzie Colson, but they are also without star freshman D.J. Harvey. Both teams are on the fringe of being considered for the NCAA Tournament and both desperately need this game. I think that will have the defensive intensity all the way up and with Miami's recent shooting struggles and Notre Dame's methodical pace, this game will stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 141! 

50* NCAAB ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 162)

I got no problem backing the OVER here with Duke and Virginia Tech. These are two of the best offensive teams in the country. The Blue Devils lead the nation in offensive efficiency and the Hokies are sitting at 19th. That combined with the fact that Duke also plays at the fastest pace in the country and should dictate the tempo, should have this flying over the total set here.

The Hokies give up 78 on the road and I wouldn't be shocked if they were a bit flat on that side off that big win over in-state rival Virginia. Duke averages 92.6 ppg at home and the only ACC team to keep them under 80 at home is Virginia. The Blue Devils could score 100 here. Give me the OVER 162! 

50* NCAAB BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 148.5)

My money is on a much higher-scoring game than what the books are projecting with this total. A big key to this is I don't think Michigan State is going to be locked in defensively here coming off that emotional win at home over Purdue. Keep in mind prior to that highly anticipated matchup with the Boilermakers they combined for 189 points at Iowa. Minnesota plays at the second fastest pace in the Big Ten and are averaging 81 ppg at home this season. The other key here is they aren't a great defensive team, ranking 12th out of the 14 teams in the conference in defensive efficiency. They have allowed 75 or more in each of their last 4 games and 10 of their last 11. The Spartans are averaging 83.1 ppg on the season and 75.1 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 148.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 134.5) 

I think we are getting a great price here on the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 game between Texas and Baylor. These two teams played back in early January and combined for just 129 points. These are two strong defensive teams and given how much this game means for both of these teams, I think we get a huge effort here from both sides. UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 games Baylor has played with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1 in their last 8 off a win. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Longhorns last 29 games when revenging a loss and 12-1 in their last 13 when revenging a same season loss. Give me the UNDER 134.5! 

50* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 141.5) 

My money is on Saturday's big SEC showdown between Kentucky and Texas A&M finishing UNDER the total. I was on the UNDER in the Wildcats last game against Tennessee and won easily, as the two teams combined for just 120 points with a total of 143.5. I think we see a very similar defensive battle here, as Kentucky has to rely so much on their defense with how limited they are offensively. Texas A&M has been excellent defensively, holding opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting, which is the 8th best mark in the country. Kentucky isn't far behind, as they only allow teams to shoot 40.8% (31st). Both of these teams also rank outside the Top 240 in both 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. I'll take my chances with a total in the 140s given these circumstances every time. Give me the UNDER 141.5!

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214) 

These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5)

It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214) 

I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss. 

With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5) 

The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points. 

Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth.

I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5! 

50* NBA FINALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 227)

I would lean Warriors here, but I feel the real value is with the total. Cleveland is saying they aren't going to slow things down and will continue to play fast. I'm not buying it. The Cavs know they can't contain this Warriors offense if they let them get out in transition. They don't have to play at a snails pace, but they have to play slower. The pace of these first two games has been ridiculous. On top of that, we are going to get the very best the Cavs have to offer defensively at home in what I think most agree is a game they have to win if they want any shot at making this a series. At the same time, I don't see the Warriors letting off the defensive intensity after blowing a 3-1 lead last year. Give me the UNDER 227! 

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 206)

I'm not quite ready to count out Chicago without Rondo, but I think his absence has created some great value here on the UNDER. Rondo is a huge part of Chicago's offense and without him there simply won't be as many open shots. He also did a good job of pushing the ball up the floor, so expect a slower pace than we saw in the first two games of this series. You also have to factor in how big a game this is for Boston being down 0-2 on the road. They are going to give everything they got on defense. Not to mention these two teams are getting familiar with each other. Give me the UNDER 206!

50* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs Weekend BEST BET (Under 199.5)

This is without a doubt my favorite play on the board in the NBA Playoffs this weekend. Toronto isn't viewed as a great defensive team and they weren't for a good part of this season. The Raptors defensive numbers improved drastically with the additions of Ibaka and Tucker. On the flip side of this, defense was a major part of the Bucks big run down the stretch. Milwaukee's got the size to matchup with anyone and make things difficult on that side of the ball. With the pressure of the playoffs I think we are getting more than 10-points in value here. Give me the UNDER 199.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 211.5)

I look for the Bulls and Cavaliers to have no problem eclipsing this total tonight. Cleveland comes in off an absolutely miserable offensive performance, scoring just 74 points in a 29-point loss at San Antonio on Monday. There were a lot of factors that played into that awful showing, including the Spurs being an elite defensive team and the Cavs just being tired from a brutal schedule. Prior to that game Cleveland had scored at least 112 points in 4 straight games. Note that they lost 78-108 at Los Angeles (Clippers) and the next game combined for 145 points with the Lakers. Chicago's scored 107 or more in 4 straight and should be able to keep that streak going, pushing us well over the mark here. Give me the OVER 211.5!

50* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year (UNDER 201)

I expect the intensity to be very similar to that of a playoff game tonight, as these two teams are both fighting for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami currently holds that spot, but they have a mere 1-game lead on the Bulls and 1.5-game lead on the Pistons. Neither team can really afford to lose this game. I believe it's going to lead to max effort on the defensive side of the ball and this one finishing well below the mark. Note that Detroit hasn't scored more than 96 points in each of their last 4 games and aren't expected to have Reggie Jackson for this game. Miami's offense simply isn't the same without Waiters and it doesn't help that Dragic is playing at less than 100%. Both teams are also playing with tired legs. the Pistons are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after a 4-game road trip and Miami is playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days. Give me the UNDER 201!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 200)

I'm expecting a playoff type atmosphere here with these two teams. Utah is holding on to a slim 1-game lead for the 4th spot in the west with just 9 games left to play, while New Orleans is clinging onto hope of sneaking in as the No. 8 seed, though they need to make up 4 games with just 9 to play. Unlikely, but with them coming off a 25-point blowout win at Denver yesterday, they aren't giving up just yet. Utah is a dominant defensive team and the Pelicans have been playing really good defense overall of late. I look for this to finish close to 190 than 200. Give me the UNDER 200!

50* NCAAB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 152) 

This one should have no problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. Oregon can light up the scoreboard, as they come in averaging 79.1 ppg. They will be facing an Iona defense that is awful. Keep in mind they allowed 90+ to both FSU and Nevada early in the year and 80+ in 4 of their last 8 overall, including 103 points to Rider at home on 2/19. The key here is that while the Ducks will be soaring up and down the court, Iona is capable of keeping pace. The Gaels average 80.5 ppg and will be facing an Oregon defense that is minus one of the better defenders in Chris Boucher, who averaged an impressive 2.5 blocks per game. Give me the OVER 152!

50* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month (UNDER 201.5)

This is a huge game. Utah currently holds the No. 4 seed in the west, but are just 1-game ahead of the Clippers at No. 5. All signs point to this being a 1st round matchup. Getting the No. 4 seed and homecourt in that series is huge. I expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and that means high intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Note that these two teams have played twice already and both have been extremely low-scoring. The two combined for 163 in a game at LA back in October and 160 at Utah back in February. I don't think it's going to be that low-scoring, but we got 30+ points to work with. Give me the UNDER!

50* NCAAB Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 142.5)

I just don't think there's too much value here on the OVER to pass up. Yes, these two teams combined for just 119 points earlier this season at Iowa State. The thing is, it was about as bad ad both teams could have played offensively. Texas Tech shot 38.6% from the field and 28.6% from behind the 3-point line. Iowa State was 39.6% from the field and 28.6% from long-distance. ISU averages 80.7 ppg and Tech is at 75.4 (80.2 ppg at home). I expect a lot more flow this time around. The Cyclones are limited defensively and come in giving up 76.8 ppg on the road. Texas Tech only gives up 65.4 ppg at home, but I just don't see them locking down on defense playing on just 1-day rest after a crushing double-overtime loss at West Virginia. Five different Red Raiders logged 32+ minutes and only 7 players played more than 6 minutes. OVER is 6-1 in Cyclones last 7 road games and 24-9 in their last 33 as a dog of 6.5 or less. OVER is also 8-3 in Red Raiders last 11 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Give me the OVER 142.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 216)

These two teams have played twice this season already. They only combined for 192 points in the first meeting at Sacramento back on 11/10 and then 208 at Sacramento on 12/12. That might lead some to want to take the UNDER here as the total for this game is at 216. Not me. Neither of these teams were playing well offensively in the previous matchups. That's not the case this time. The Lakers come in having scored 100+ points in 6 straight games and have topped 120 in 3 of those games. Kings have scored 100+ in 6 straight and 11 of 12 overall. We also have two teams that don't exactly like to play defense and with the all-star break looming I don't expect much of any to be played tonight. Give me the OVER 216!

50* NCAAB Big 12 Play of the Month (OVER 127)

These two teams played earlier this season and combined for just 126 points with a total of 130.5. I believe that low-scoring game has forced the oddsmakers to over-adjust the total for this contest. That first meeting saw both teams struggle from the field. Texas Tech only hit 41.4% of their attempts and Baylor was a miserable 35.4% from the field. That's uncharacteristic for both teams, as the Red Raiders are hitting 48.3% from the field on the season (51.3% at home) and the Bears are at 47.9% on the season (47.1% on the road). OVER is also 6-0 in Texas Tech's last 6 after playing their previous game as a home dog (hosted Kansas on Saturday). Give me the OVER 127!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 212)

I like the UNDER here on the total in the Thunder/Pacers matchup. Indiana has been playing really well of late and are locking down on defense the past few games. The Pacers have allowed 88, 97 and 84 over their last 3 and will be catching a tired OKC team that just played yesterday and are not nearly as potent offensive on the road, which is why the UNDER is 18-8-1 in their 27 road games this season. UNDER is 13-4 in the Thunder's last 17 road games off a home win and 12-4 in their last 16 as a road dog. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Pacers last 29 home games after playing a game at home and 30-9 in their last 39 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER!

50* NCAAB West Coast Game of the Month (Under 161)

There's a lot of bad defensive teams in the WCC and I think it has the offensive numbers a bit inflated for both of these teams, which in turn has created some great value here on the UNDER with this total in the 160's. These two teams aren't big fans of each other and both will bring the defensive intensity in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. Gonzaga is only giving up 61.4 ppg and BYU is allowing a modest 72.7 ppg. SO while both teams average 80+ ppg, I think this one stays in the low 150s. Give me the UNDER 161!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 205)

These two teams played in Sacramento on 12/26 and the two teams combined for just 202 points with a total of 206. We get a slightly smaller number here in the rematch, but I think we also are going to see a much lower-scoring game. Both of these teams are in awful scheduling spots. The Kings are playing their 7th straight away from home on a 8-game road trip, in a span of just 11 days. Philadelphia is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are also playing their 7th game in 11 days. The 76ers have given up 120+ in their last two, but have been playing much better defensively of late and I expect a big effort here at home. Give me the UNDER 205!

50* Eastern Conference Total of the Month (OVER 204)

I'm backing the OVER tonight when the Bulls and Hawks square off for the second time this season. In the first meeting this season, these two teams combined for 122 points in a 115-107 win for the Hawks at home. I see this one playing out about the same. Chicago's finally back to full strength and when they have had all their pieces, they have been a strong offensive team. We should also see Chicago pushing the pace here, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Atlanta didn't shoot well at all in their last game at Detroit, but the Hawks have been rolling offensively of late, scoring 100+ in 8 of their last 11 and 5 straight at home. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 against at team with a losing record and 6-1-1 in their last 8 off a game where they didn't cover. Give me the OVER 204! 

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 214.5)

I think we are seeing some value here with this total tonight between the Magic and Blazers. I think this total is a lot lower than it should be given Portland's last two games. The Blazers held the Lakers to 87 points on Tuesday, but that was more of LA just not shooting well (Lakers scored 30 points in the 2nd half after scoring 57 in the 1st half). They then held the Cavs to 86 with Cleveland shooting a mere 34.1% from the field. I believe it's more of bad shooting by their opponents than the Blazers figuring it out defensively, as this is a team that allows 110.3 ppg. I also don't think we get the same effort from Portland against a bad Magic team after the big win over the Cavs. OVER is 7-0 in Blazers last 7 after covering 2 or more consecutive games and 12-4 in their last 16 after a win by 10 or more points. Give me the OVER 214.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 203.5)

I look for a low-scoring game tonight in this Southeast Division showdown between the Hawks and Magic. Both teams are going to be motivated in this one. Orlando will be looking to snap a 3-game losing streak, while the Hawks are trying to get things going back in the right direction after a miserable 1-10 stretch, which they have followed up with 2 straight wins coming into this one. The key here is that we have two teams that rank in the Top 11 in defensive efficiency and bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. UNDER is 6-0 in the Magic's last 6 road games against a team with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 home games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 against a division opponent. Take the UNDER!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 201.5)

I think the value here is clearly on the UNDER. Dallas is limited offensively when they are healthy and even more so with the injuries to Nowitzki and Williams. The Mavericks have scored fewer than 90 points (3 times) more than they have eclipsed the 100-point mark (2 times). I know Boston comes in allowing 101.3 ppg, but the defense has been much better of late, as they are only giving up 97.3 ppg. I look for a strong effort here defensively after the defense cost them in a 105-106 loss at New Orleans last time out. It's also worth pointing out that Dallas is going to try and slow this game way down, as they come in ranked 29th in pace. The other key here is while the Mavs have struggled offensively, they are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. UNDER is 6-1 in Dallas' last 7 against the east and 8-2 in Boston's last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the UNDER 201.5!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 206)

The books have set the bar too high, as we have an early season rematch here between the Hawks and Wizards, who opened the season against each other in Atlanta. Adding even more value here is that this is a big game for both teams. Washington is fighting to avoid starting the season 0-3 and playing with revenge after letting one get away against the Hawks in the opener. Atlanta on the other hand will be motivated off an ugly home loss to the Lakers, where they only have themselves to blame with the effort they gave defensively in the 2nd half of that contest. Give me the UNDER 206!

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 199.5)

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here between the Hornets and Heat in Game 1 of this opening round series. Both of these teams rank inside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency and are each in the bottom half of the league in pace. With the way teams turn up the intensity on the defensive side of the ball in the playoffs, points are going to be hard to come by for both teams. It's also worth noting that 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams resulted in a combined score of 198 or less. Give me the UNDER 199.5! 

50* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Top Play (UNDER 209)

The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's matchup between the Pelicans and Nuggets. It's well known that New Orleans is missing basically their entire starting lineup and then some due to injuries. That's had a huge impact on their offensive production, as they are averaging a mere 93.0 ppg over their last 5, well below their season average of 102.6. Denver isn't a great defensive team, but I do expect them to play hard, as they continue to cling on to the slim hope that they can make the playoffs. At the same time, Denver figures to play at a much slower tempo than normal. The Nuggets are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I know this total has dropped quite a bit, but I still recommend the UNDER at the current line of 206.5 and will continue to recommend it unless noted here. Give me the UNDER 209! 

50* NBA Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Month (UNDER 204) 

These two teams just played on 2/10, which the Hornets won 117-95 to send the game over the posted total of 201.5. Keep in mind that was the final game before the All-Star break for both teams and defense wasn't a priority with the long layoff on deck. Prior to giving up 114 in a loss to the Cavaliers last time out, Charlotte was allowing just 94.8 ppg over their previous 8 games. Indiana is a more than capable team defensively when they want to be and I'm confident the Pacers bring the intensity in this one. The average combined score in the Pacers last 93 games when revenging a home loss of 10 or more is 190.6. Give me the UNDER 204! 

50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pistons/Nets UNDER 202) 

I think we are seeing some great value here with this total. Detroit is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games against the Cavaliers (106-114) and Raptors (107-111), both of which resulted in losses. I look for the Pistons to come out with a different mentality on the defensive end in this one and they should have no problem keeping a mediocre at best Brooklyn offense in check. The Nets scored 103 against the Pelicans last time out, but that's only the 5th time in their last 15 games they have eclipsed the century mark (scored just 79 the previous game against Dallas). UNDEr is 18-4 in the Nets last 22 off a loss by 6 or less and 20-9 in the Pistons last 29 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Give me the UNDER! 

50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (UNDER 203)

The Cavaliers played a huge game last night at San Antonio, which they lost 95-99. They now must go on the road to face the Rockets on no rest. It's a very similar scenario from a few weeks back when Cleveland had to play on no rest at Portland after playing the previous day at Golden State. That game against the Trail Blazers saw a combined 181 points in a 76-105 loss. I'm expecting a similar type of outcome tonight, as the Cavs simply won't have the energy needed to put up a big number offensively. It's also worth mentioning the Rockets have been playing better defense of late, allowing just 96.6 ppg over their last 5, compared to the 105.0 ppg they are giving up for the season. UNDER is 20-9 in Cleveland's last 29 as an underdog, 21-9 in their last 30 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and a perfect 11-0 after playing their previous contest against a Western Conference team. Give me the UNDER 203! 

50* NBA --Guaranteed Hardwood Top Play-- (Pacers/Heat UNDER 193.5)

With this game being played on NBA TV, I'm expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity. Anytime Miami is playing at home you have to be thinking UNDER, as the Heat only score 97.2 ppg and allow just 95.4 ppg on the road. Indiana is a strong offensive team, but figure to struggle to reach their season average of 102.5 ppg. Big key here is the Pacers are getting after it defensively right now, allowing just 95.8 ppg over their last 5. These two teams have played twice already this season and combined for 177 and 179. Give me the UNDER 193.5! 

50* NBA --Cavs/Warriors NBA Guaranteed Top Play-- (UNDER 210)

This has been arguably the most anticipated game of the regular season and I'm expecting both of these teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. All 6 games in the Finals last year finished with 208 or fewer points. We are simply seeing an inflated total here due to this being such a big game and the books inflated the total knowing the public will be all over the OVER. Both teams are also well-rested and that's been a strong indicator for both of these teams to go UNDER. In fact, the UNDER is 15-5 in Cleveland's last 20 road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is also 14-3 in Golden State's last 17 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days. Give me the UNDER 210!

50* NBA --Non-Conference Total of the Month-- (Under 203)

Portland is expected to be without their top two scorers in this game, as Damian Lillard has been ruled out and C.J. McCollum is doubtful. These two combine for over 44 ppg, which is nearly half of the Blazers entire offensive output (101.4 ppg). I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively for this game to be high-enough scoring to eclipse this total. New Orleans should be able to jump out to an early lead and they will be more than happy to coast down the stretch of this game with a road game against Miami on Christmas coming up. Give me the UNDER 203! 

50* NBA --Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 196)

Whenever a quality team is coming off a blowout loss in their last game, more times than not that leads to an inspired defensive effort in their next contest. It just so happens that we have two teams facing off against each other in this spot. Toronto lost 90-106 at Indiana in their last contest, while the Hornets got embarrassed 98-113 at Orlando last time out. Look for both of these teams to bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball tonight and their season numbers definitely support this play. The Raptors are only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and the Hornets are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. Give me the UNDER 196! 

50* NBA -Hardwood Guaranteed Total Top Play-- (Under 202)

The Cavaliers turned in one of their best defensive efforts of the season in their last game, as they held the Magic to 76 points or 38.9% shooting. No surprise that this performance came in the return of defensive specialist Iman Shumpert. With Cleveland having had 3 full days of rest before this game and Boston off 2 days of rest, I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in a game that will be televised on NBATV. Keep in mind that 7 of the last 11 in the series have gone UNDER the total. We also find a strong system in play, as the UNDER is 39-14 (74%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 200 or more with a team off an upset win as underdog against an opponent off a road win by 10 or more points. Give me the UNDER 202! 

50* NBA --Eastern Conf Total of the Month-- (UNDER 193)

I'm expecting a very low-scoring matchup tonight between these two Central Division rivals. The Bucks come into this game off an ugly 70-95 loss at San Antonio. That should have Milwaukee highly motivated to bounce back and that's now 3 straight games where they have allowed 95 or fewer points. Detroit is coming in off a 127-122 overtime win at home against the Suns, which followed a 116-105 win at home against the Rockets. Those two results are a big reason we are seeing a total as high as we are. Even with those outcomes, Detroit is only giving up 97.9 ppg and scoring 98.2 ppg. The Bucks only average 95.3 ppg and just 90.5 ppg on the road. UNDER is 19-7 in Pistons last 26 home games after playing 2 straight games where both teams scored 100+ points. Average final score in these games have been 189.8. Give me the UNDER 193! 

50* NBA --Blockbuster Total Crusher-- (UNDER 190)

The Spurs have seen the under go 11-5-1 in their 17 games so far this season and 5-1 in their last 6 overall. The Bulls have seen the under go 11-3 in their 14 games with each of the last 6 finishing under the mark. San Antonio is allowing just 89.7 ppg and have not given up more than 90 points in 5 straight. The Bulls are allowing just 95.7 ppg at home and really seem to pick up their intensity at home when facing a quality opponent. Their 3 biggest home games to day have been against the Cavs, Thunder and Pacers, all 3 of which finished UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 190! 

50* NBA --Eastern Conf Total of the Month-- (UNDER 196)

I think we are going to see a very low-scoring game here between the Knicks and Magic. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. Orlando comes in at 42.7% on the season and the Knicks are even worse at 41.5%. I also look for both teams to come out motivated defensively after a blowout loss. New York lost 78-95 at Miami in their last game, while the Magic fell 103-117 at Cleveland. Out of the 4 meetings last year, 3 finished with 182 or less points, with the highest output in Orlando being 172. UNDER is 47-18 (72%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where the home team is off a loss by 10 or more points and road team off a loss by 15 or more. Give me the UNDER 196! 

50* NBA --No Doubt Total Top Play-- (OVER 202)

The Celtics are coming off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for just 182 points and the Pacers playing last night against the Pistons in a game where 176 points were scored, which raises a big red-flag when you see a total for this matchup at 202. The books are basically telling you that this will be a much-higher scoring game than expected an I agree with them. Indiana's defense wasn't very good in their first 3 games and they really got after it last night to get their first win of the season. I look for them to relax on that side of the ball in the second game of a back-to-back set. Boston had scored 100+ in each of their first two before shooting 35.7% against San Antonio. They come in off 2 days rest and will be looking to push the tempo. Give me the OVER 202! 

50* NBA PLAYOFFS *PERSONAL FAVORITE TOP PLAY* TOTAL

Big Game 3 with a chance for the Rockets to win their first game of the series or the Warriors to go up 3-0. Expect another strong defensive effort out of both teams. Golden State's offense isn't quite as potent on the road, while the Rockets defense is significantly better on their home court. Roll the UNDER 214.5!

50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY

The Spurs have won all 3 of the previous meetings this season, which sets up a very profitable system on the total in this matchup. UNDER is 31-9 with a total of 200 to 209.5 when you have a team playing with triple-revenge against an opponent off a road win by 10+ points. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 10-2 in Spurs last 12 off a road win by 10+ and 0-4 in the Nuggets last 4 road games when listed as a dog of 12.5 or more points. Roll the UNDER 208.5!

50-STAR NBA *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

The Trail Blazers recently lost starting shooting guard Wesley Matthews for the rest of the season and are also expected to be without the services of starting power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, starting small forward Nicolas Batum and backup center Chris Kaman. That leaves Portland with a thin bench, which I believe is going to have them looking to slow down the pace of this game against the Warriors. Golden State has continued to play extremely well without Klay Thompson, but could struggle to come out motivated here against a depleted Portland roster in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 4th in the last 5 days overall. UNDER is 12-4 in Portland's last 16 home games against teams averaging 103+ ppg and 15-3 in their last 18 home games with a total set at 200 or more points. Roll the UNDER 205!

50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY

The books have set the mark too high in this one. These two teams combined for just 178 points at New York in their most recent meeting on Jan. 2 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar low-scoring game here. The Knicks have scored 97 points or less in each of their last 10 games and are averaging just 89.3 ppg during this stretch. UNDER is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 against a team with a losing record and 11-2 in the Pistons last 13 after allowing 100+ in their last game. Roll the UNDER 194!

50-STAR BIG 10 *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

These two teams met just a couple of weeks ago (Feb. 12) at Rutgers and combined for just 112 points with a total of 124.5. The books have simply not adjusted enough here. The fact that these two teams recently played only adds more value to the under, as they will be more familiar with what the other team is looking to do offensively. UNDER is 8-2 in Purdue's 10 home games with a total listed and a perfect 6-0 in Rutgers last 6 road games after scoring 65 points or less in 2 straight games. UNDER is also 35-10 (78%) since 1997 in games where you have a total of 129.5 or less with the home team off an upset conference win against an opponent off a conference loss of 20 or more points. Roll the UNDER 123.5!

50-STAR NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* TOP PLAY

I'm expecting a defensive showdown in Detroit today between the Wizards and Pistons. UNDER is 12-2 in Washington's last 14 games in the 2nd half against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) and 12-3 in the Wizards last 15 games after a combined score of 205 or more points in their last contest. Roll the UNDER 195.5!

50-STAR NBA OVER/UNDER *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

I think we are getting an inflated total here due to both of these teams coming off high-scoring games against the league's best offensive team in Golden State. These two teams have finished UNDER the total in each of their last 5 meetings, plus UNDER is 23-11 in Kings last 34 at home when playing with double-revenge and 16-5 in the Mavs last 21 road games against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ boards per game. Roll the UNDER 209!

10* Timberwolves/Mavericks NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 206

The Mavericks offense has struggled to find their rhythm since acquiring Rondo in a trade, but he's not expected to play tonight. Minnesota plays no defense and I look for Dallas to put up a big number offensively. The key here is that the Timberwolves should be able to keep it close enough to push this over the mark. OVER is 21-9-1 in the Timberwolves last 31 games when their opponent comes in having scored 100 or more in their last game and 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Roll the OVER 206!

10* Heat/Celtics NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 187

Value here is with the total. UNDER is 28-7 (80%) since 1996 in games where you have a total set between 180 to 189.5 points that features an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a horrible defensive team (102+ ppg) after scoring 85 or less. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 road games when listed as the underdog and 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 off back-to-back losses. Roll the UNDER 187!

10* Clippers/Spurs NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 202.5

Value here is on the total. UNDER is 39-14 (74%) in all games with a total of 200 to 209.5 where you have a team that's won 60% to 75% of their games that are playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Roll the UNDER 202.5!

10* Warriors/Jazz NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 205

I'm expecting a shootout tonight in Utah between the Warriors and Jazz. OVER is 11-2 in the Warriors last 13 road games after a game with 30 or more assists, 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Friday. These two teams combined for 221 points at Utah back on Jan. 13. Roll the OVER 205!

10* Bulls/Warriors NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 212

Great system backing a play on this one finishing below the mark. UNDER is 104-55 (65%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points where you have a top level team (75% or better) that has covered 3 of their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Roll the UNDER 212!

10* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 215.5

With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I look for this one to finish well below the mark of 215.5. Neither team is going to be playing at their normal pace and the Nuggets have not been good offensively in their last 2 road games against quality teams, scoring just 79 at Golden State and 89 at Dallas. Clippers are only giving up 98.3 ppg at home. UNDER is 12-3 in Los Angeles' last 15 home games after a combined score of 205 points and 5-1-1 in Nuggets' last 7 road games against teams that have won more than 60% of their home games. Take the Under!

10* 76ers/Pelicans NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 188

The Pelicans aren't going to be overlooking the 76ers in this one, as they got embarrassed at Philadelphia 81-96 back on Jan. 16. With New Orleans focused, I look for this one to finish well below the mark. 76ers have gone OVER the total just once in their last 12 games and have failed to surpass 90 points in 5 of their last 7. UNDER is 15-4 in Philadelphia's last 19 off a loss by 15+, 9-0 after allowing 60 or more in the first half and 16-7 this season when listed as a road underdog. Take the Under!

10* Celtics/Warriors NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 214

Great long-term system in play. OVER is 117-65 (64%) since 1996 in games where you have a team off two road wins by 5 points or less. OVER is also 13-2 in Celtics last 15 after 3 or more consecutive unders and 8-0 in the Warriors last 8 after covering at least 8 of their last 10 games. Take the over!

10* Pacers/Magic NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 208.5

Each of the last 20 meetings in this series have finished with a combined score of less than the total posted here. Also a strong system in play. UNDER is 41-16 (72%) when you have a team off 4 or more straight loss against an opponent off 5 or more straight losses. Take the under!

10* Magic/Knicks NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 206

This is way too many points for these two teams. The Knicks play at a snails pace and the Magic aren't exactly flying up and down the floor. These two teams only combined for 192 points in New York in their previous meeting this season. UNDER is 8-3 in the Knicks last 11 overall and 13-5 in the Magics last 18 road games against bad teams that have won less than 40% of their home games. Take the UNDER!

10* Spurs/Nuggets NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 203.5

UNDER is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 road games when they come having covered the spread in 3 or more straight games, 14-5 in Denver's last 19 games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game, 5-1 in San Antonio's last 6 road games and 13-3-1 in Nuggets last 17 after allowing 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 49-24 (67%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team that allowed 80 or less (Spurs) against an opponent that has allowed 105 or more in each of their last 2. Take the UNDER!

10* Thunder/Heat NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 199

UNDER is 13-3 in the Thunder's last 16 road games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 when listed as an underdog and 13-3 in Miami's last 16 non-conference games. UNDER is also 74-39 (66%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a win by 10 or more points (Heat) against an opponent off a combined score of 215 or more in each of their last two games. Take the UNDER!

10* Hawks/Bulls NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 200.5

UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and there's also a strong system back this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 28-7 (80%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that has beat the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games. 

10* Hawks/Celtics NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 205

Not expecting a lot of defense in this one and got a strong system supporting this one to go over the mark. OVER is 51-29 (64%) since 1996 in games with a total of 200 or more points where you have a road team that is an average defensive team (92-98 ppg) against a horrible defensive team (102+ ppg) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points.

10* Pacers/76ers NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 188.5

With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and the Pacers off an overtime game against the Celtics, I'm not expecting a lot of defense to be played in this one. 76ers don't play any defense as it is and Indiana has allowed 100+ in 3 straight. OVER is 16-5 in Pacers 21 road games this season and 9-1 in their last 10 games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Take the over!

10* Hornets/Raptors NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 199.5

Charlotte is only average 93.6 ppg on the road this season and the Raptors are giving up just 95.4 ppg at home. I'm fully expecting the Raptors to win here in a blowout, which should have this one finishing well below the mark of 199.5. Keep in mind in last year's 3 meetings the highest total was 190, so clearly we are getting some value here. UNDER is 21-10 in Charlotte's last 31 after covering 2 or more consecutive games and 19-7 in Raptors last 26 home games after allowing 110+ points in 2 straight games.

10* Knicks/Grizzlies NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 191

These two teams both play at a painfully slow pace. New York ranks 29th at 92.4 and Memphis is 27th at 93.9. The Knicks have scored 82 or fewer points in each of their last 4 games and Memphis is coming off an 85-point performance against the Nuggets. This game has blowout written all over it, but I think the real value here is with the UNDER 191.

10* Nuggets/Timberwolves NBA Top Play

BET: OVER 209

Minnesota has allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 11 games and I look for that streak to continue, as the Nuggets come in averaging 101.9 ppg on the season. The important thing here is Denver doesn't play any defense, especially on the road, where they are giving up 106.9 ppg. The average score in this series over the last 3 years is 215 points.

10* Bucks/Knicks NBA Top Play

BET: UNDER 191.5

The Knicks play at a painfully slow pace offensively and its a big reason why the UNDER is 11-5 in their 16 home games this season. With all the injuries that New York is dealing with right now, I look for this to be an ugly low-scoring game today against the Bucks. UNDER is 10-2 in Knicks last 12 home games against teams who allow 99+ points/game.