40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5! 

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense. 

Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47! 

50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)

It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.

The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores. 

I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.

As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.

You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.

OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!

Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road). 

Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt. 

Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson. 

Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41) 

New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.

You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.

I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.

At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.

The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.

Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.

As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.

You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.

Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!

50* RAYS/A'S AL WILD CARD TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 7.5) 

I love the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's AL Wild Card matchup. You got two really good starters going in a pitchers park (Coliseum). Tampa will send out Charlie Morton, who went 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 33 starts this season. Morton had a strong 8-3 record with a 3.59 ERA in 16 road starts and owns a 3.20 ERA in 7 career outings against the A's. Oakland will turn to Sean Manaea, which is pretty amazing. Manaea only made 5 starts after missing close to a year because of injury. He looked as good as ever in those 5 outings, posting a 1.21 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. He recorded 17 or more outs in each of his last 4 starts and after walking 5 in his first two outings, hel only walked 2 over his last 3. We also know that we will see the best of the best relievers in this winner take all matchup. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60) 

I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF. 

Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions. 

At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60! 

50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.

I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.

Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.

As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.

OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing  in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!

50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 55) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 55. While the Boilermakers are coming off a crushing loss to Nevada, the loss was more on the defense. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and were throwing the football all over the place. Not to mention they were playing with even more pace than last year. 

Vanderbilt wants to play faster and have some serious weapons at the skill positions. The Commodores couldn't get anything going against an elite Georgia defense, but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one. This total should be closer to 60 and I wouldn't be shocked if the two combined for 70. Give me the OVER 55! 

50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Oregon St/Oklahoma St OVER 74)

I was originally going to lay the points with Oklahoma State, but there's just something about a game in Corvallis that scares me. However, I'm not concerned with the Cowboys ability to score points with whoever ends up playing QB. 

Gundy is a QB guru and he just added in Sean Gleeson from Princeton to be his OC. Gleeson did some pretty innovative stuff with Princeton and he's got a ton of playmakers at his disposal. None better than junior wide out Tylan Wallace. 

Oregon State has 9 guys back on defense, but that doesn't mean as much when it's from a unit that gave up 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg. Opposing QB's completed 64% of their attempts against the Beavers secondary in 2018. 

Oregon State gave up 40 or more in 7 of their 12 games last year, including 77 in the opener to Ohio State. 

Key here is that while OK State is primed to put up a big number, I think the Beavers will do their part offensively behind senior QB Jake Luton and some talented skill players. Also, Cowboys only have 5 starters back on a defense that wasn't great in 2018. Give me the OVER 74! 

40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 59.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5. When I first looked at this game I considered laying the 25 points with ASU and would probably still lean that way. However, I feel there's a lot more value here with the OVER, as we simply need 60 points to reach our mark. 

Arizona State was way better than expected in year one under Herm Edwards and they did that with a pretty mediocre offense (29.9 ppg). I think they are closer to 35 ppg in 2019 and should score a ton against a Kent State defense that is outmatched. I'm really excited to see freshmen quarterback Jayden Daniels, who should thrive with how much defenses will have to respect the run with Eno Benjamin back (1,642 yards, 16 touchdowns). 

The even bigger key here is the tempo "FlashFAST" in which Kent State second year head coach Sean Lewis is looking to play at. He's a former OC under Dino Babers and their uptempo offense at Syracuse. Last year he got a Kent State offense that returned just 6 starters from a team that averaged 12.8 ppg and got them 23.9 ppg with more than 100 yards/game improvement. They got 9 starters back, including one of the better QBs in the MAC in Woody Barrett. I think this is going to be a much better offense than anyone anticipates. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. I know the Nationals have score 16 runs in the first two games of the series, but Chicago will have Cole Hamels on the mound and he's posted a 2.56 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 10 home starts. He'll be 100% locked in with the team desperately needing a win here. Cubs offense has been real quiet of late and figures to stay that way against Stephen Strasburg. In 9 career starts against Chicago, Strasburg has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. Both of these starters also love pitching in day games. Hamels has a 2.48 ERA in 9 day starts, while Strasburg owns a 2.87 ERA in 11 day starts. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)

If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.

Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.

One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.

It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.

Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.

Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.

UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!

50* NFLX VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 42) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER. The Giants have put up 30 points on their own in each of their first two preseason games and they got quite the 1-2 punch for the preseason in Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones. Manning really seems to be using the push from Jones in a positive way. He's a perfect 5-5 and led NY to a TD on his only drive last week. Even 3rd and 4th stringers Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta have played well. We saw Cincinnati's defense get torched for 38 by the Chiefs in their first game. Giants defense has looked decent, but a lot of that has to do with the Bears only using quarterbacks Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray last week. Andy Dalton will be in there a decent amount and the Bengals have a pretty decent rookie QB of their own in Ryan Finley, who was 20 of 26 for 150 yards and 2 scores last week. Give me the OVER 42! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Cardinals OVER 9.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 9.5. Yesterday we played the OVER 11 in Milwaukee's game with Washington and the two combined for 24. That's now 30 runs in the last 2 games that the Brewers pitching has allowed. The bullpen is taxed and that's a problem, as it will be tough for the starters to go deep in this one. The heat index at game time is expected to be around 105 degrees with almost no wind. It's going to be miserable conditions to pitch. Look for some big innings by both teams that have this thing easily reaching double-digits. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Brewers/Nationals Over 11) 

The Nationals and Brewers combined for 29 runs in Milwaukee's 15-14 win in 14-innings on Saturday. Not only are both offenses headed into Sunday swinging a confident bat, but both of these teams' bullpens were taxed yesterday. Add in a pretty mediocre pitching matchup of Anderson vs Fedde and awful conditions with a heat index around 100 and I think we see these two fly past the total. Give me the OVER 11! 

40* NFLX OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 41) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 41. Two of the better backups in the league will be featured here with the Patriots Brian Hoyer (12 of 14 for 147 yards 2 TDs in Week 1) and the Titans Ryan Tannehill (12 of 16, 130 yards 2 TDs Week 1). Not mention both 3rd string guys played well. New Englands Jarrett Stidham threw for 179 yards and a score, while Logan Woodside of the Titans has 138 yards and 2 TD passes. Plenty of chances for scoring throughout this game. Give me the OVER 41! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. We have cashed in on the UNDER in each of the first two games in the series and it hasn't been close. Game 1 had a total of 3 runs with a total of 8.5. Game 2 had 2 runs with a total of 8.5. We have the same 8.5 total posted for Game 3 and I see another strong pitching matchup. Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound, who is coming off a start at Milwaukee where he allowed just 4 hits in 7 shutout innings. Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty, who has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER once again in the Cubs/Cardinals series. I cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER 8.5 Tuesday, as St Louis squeaked out a 2-1 win. I think we are in line for another pitchers duel tonight, as the Cubs send out Kyle Hendricks and the Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas. Hendricks has a 3.06 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 17 starts against St Louis and Mikolas has a sensational 1.95 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 6 starts vs the Cubs. Take the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Tuesdays' series opener between the Cubs and Cardinals. Chicago will send out Yu Darvish, who has finally start to pitch like the guy they thought they were getting when they signed him to the big deal. Darvish has a 2.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. A stretch where he's allowed just 10 hits, with only 2 walks and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings. Cardinals counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who has pitched exceptionally well at home compared to on the road. Wainwright has a 2.33 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in 9 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5!

50* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER at 9 in Sunday's series finale between the Brewers and Diamondbacks. A lot of people aren't going to think a pitchers duel when they see Brandon Woodruff vs Alex Young, but that's exactly what I'm expecting. Woodruff just keeps flying under the radar, despite a 11-3 record and 3.53 ERA in 19 starts. He's been lights out of late with a 1.33 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Young is making his 4th start since joining the rotation on June 27th. He's 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA and 0.551 WHIP in those 3 starts. UNDER is also a dominant 11-1 in the Diamondbacks 12 home games over the last 2 seasons when listed as a dog of +125 or more. Give me the UNDER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 9) 

I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers and Red Sox combining for double-digit runs on Saturday. These two combined for 9 on Friday with LA scoring just 1 run. I think they hit 10 runs easy. Chris Sale is considered the ace of the Boston staff, but he's pitched like a No. 5 starter at best of late. Sale has a 7.02 ERA and 1.620 WHIP In his last 3 starts, giving up 14 runs on 22 hits (5 HRs) in his last 16 2/3 innings. It's a similar story for Dodgers starter Ross Stripling, who has a 6.75 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Just too much offensive fire-power between these two teams and the ball should carry at hitter friendly Fenway Park with temps expected in the mid 80s and light wind. Give me the OVER 9! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the Cardinals and Padres. These two teams combined for just 4 runs in Friday's series opener and I don't see either offense exploding with today's starters. St Louis will send out the consistent Dakota Hudson who just keeps churning out Quality Starts. Hudson also has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Chris Paddack will go for the Padres and he's struggled a bit of late, but is coming off a couple of solid outings and has a very strong 2.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 6 home starts. UNDER is 5-1 in Hudson's 6 road starts this season and 5-1 in Paddack's 6 home starts. Give me the UNDER! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. I know we just saw these two fly past the total in Game 3, but that was simply a result of the Warriors not bringing the energy on the defensive side of the ball. Raptors were getting way too many layups, which in turn upped their confidence and I believe led to them going 17-38 (44%) from deep. They were +5 on 3-pointers over the Warriors. They were just 11-38 (29%) in Game 2, so we should expect to see regression from Game 3. Golden State can't go down 3-1 with 2 of the next 3 in Toronto. They have to win, which means max effort defensively. I think the same applies for the Raptors. If they are serious about dethroning the champs they need to win this game with Durant out and Thompson at less than 100%. Give me the UNDER! 

50* RAPTORS/WARRIORS GAME 3 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 213.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 3. It took an unthinkable scoring drought at the end of Game 2 for that to stay UNDER the total. I think that has a lot of people going back to the OVER in Game 3. Not me. Durant has already been ruled out and I think there's a decent chance that Klay Thompson doesn't play or plays at way less than 100%. We saw how hard it was for the Warriors to score once Thompson went out and I think the effort is going to be there for Toronto, especially on the defensive end. I could easily see both teams not getting to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 213.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Indians/White Sox combining for fewer than 9 runs in Sunday's series finale. Chicago has one of the hottest starters in the game going in Lucas Giolito. In his last 3 starts, Giolito has a 1.64 ERA and 0.636 WHIP. He's now 7-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.983 in 10 starts overall. Cleveland will turn to Zach Plesac, who was sharp in his first big league start last week, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in 5 1/3 innings. That was on the road against a loaded Red Sox offense. No reason to think he can't keep a sub-par White Sox offense in check. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 6 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 212.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 6. We cashed in an easy winner on the UNDER in Game 5 and I think we are going to see a very similar type of game tonight. I could actually see it being even more low scoring. Raptors defense has been great all playoffs and Milwaukee has no choice but to give everything they got on that side of the ball facing elimination. Easily see both teams fail to get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 212.5! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 216.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 5 of the Raptors/Bucks series. The last 3 in the series have gone OVER the total, but two of those were results of blowouts and the other is a game that went to double-overtime. I just think with the thing tied 2-2 and how good these two teams are defensively, we are going to see this thing stay well below the number here. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 216.5! 

50* BUCKS/RAPTORS GAME 4 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Under 217.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Game 4. Each of the last two in the series have gone OVER the total, but Game 3 going over was a joke. It was 96-96 at the end of regulation, which is a total of 192. The two teams proceeded to score 38 more points in two overtime periods to finish with 230. As much as people want to focus on the offensive stars, these are two elite defensive teams and this game is massive, as we either have the Bucks go up 3-1 or Toronto tie it up at 2-2. Both teams are going to bring it tonight. Give me the UNDER 217.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Tuesday's less than appealing matchup between the Tigers and Marlins. Most will just skip over this one, given how bad both of these teams are. While I'm about to predict which team will win, I do think there's a good chance this is a low-scoring game. Both starters are new to the scene and are absolutely dealing in 2019. Miami's Caleb Smith has a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 8 starts. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull has a 2.40 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 9 starts. You also have to factor in these are two awful offensive teams. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's series opener between the Tigers and Astros. I absolutely love the pitching matchup in this one and feel we are getting a ton of value with the number. Detroit will have Matt Boyd on the mound, who has arguably been the best pitcher in 2019 that no one knows about. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's got 63 strikeouts in 50.3 innings and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any start this season. Houston will have Brad Peacock on the mound and he's fresh off throwing 7 shutout innings with 12 strikeouts in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5!  

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 209.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Raptors and 76ers staying UNDER the total in Game 7. I honestly don't think either team is going to reach 100 points. Keep in mind that in the first 3 games played in Toronto, Philadelphia has managed to score just 95, 94 and 89 points. The 76ers defense has been hit or miss, but we know we are getting a max effort in a winner take all scenario. Give me the UNDER 209.5! 

40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Sunday's series finale between the White Sox and Blue Jays. Two offenses that have struggled to score runs in what I feel is going to be an under the radar pitchers duel. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has a not so great 4.06 ERA, but owns a strong 1.290 WHIP. He also has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 3 road starts and a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  Toronto will counter with Aaron Sanchez, who has a 3.21 ERA in 8 starts overall, thanks in large part to a sensational 1.59 ERA in 3 home starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB - FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances on the UNDER 8.5 in this one. I was on the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's series opener between Arizona and Atlanta. It was a 1-1 game going into the 9th inning and the Dbacks eventually won 3-2. That just continued a trend of horrible offense by both of these teams and we got another great pitching matchup in this one, as the Braves turn to the red-hot Julio Teheran, while the Diamondbacks give the rock to ace Zach Greinke. Give the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 8.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5. New York is sending out Matt Strahm and he's been straight dealing of late. Strahm owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. Prior to putting up 7 runs on Tuesday, Mets had scored 3 or fewer in 6 straight games. New York will turn to Wilmer Font and when given a chance the guy has produced. Add in PETCO Park and it's pitcher friendly dimensions, it all points to 8 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 7.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5. I'm banking on Noah Syndergaard's last start being the first of many great outings after a slow start to 2019. Syndergaard tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just 4 hits, walking only 1 and striking out 10. Padres will send out Cal Quantrill, who is one of their promising youngsters. I'm not as confident with him being dominant going forward, but he should be good here. Mets offense has gone to shit. They have scored a whopping 7 runs in their last 6 games combined (UNDER 6-0), scoring 1 or fewer 4 times during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in LA as the Dodgers will host the Braves. The ball just doesn't carry late at night at Dodgers Stadium. With the two starters we got going in this one, I just think these two teams are going to have a really tough time combining for 9 or more runs. LA will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in 6 starts. Atlanta will counter with Max Fried, who is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 6 starts. Ryu's ERA drops to 2.25 at home, while Fried owns a 1.46 ERA on the road. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 4 on Sunday. These two have stayed UNDER the total in each of the first 3 games of the series and the UNDER is 7-1 in Toronto's 8 playoff games and 6-2 in the 76ers 8 games. Philadelphia seems to have figured out this Raptors offense and it just got easier with Siakam unlikely to play. As for Toronto's defense, the energy wasn't where it needed to be in Game 3. I'm pretty confident the intensity will be there as they try to avoid going down 3-1 and tie this thing up at 2-2 going back to Toronto. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 219.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Nuggets and Blazers. These two flew past the total in Game 1, as both teams shot better than 50% from the field and 37% from deep. These two will have a much better understanding of what the other team wants to do offensively and this a really big game for both teams. I also don't foresee the two combining for 47 made free throws. Give me the UNDER 219.5! 

40* NBA PLAYOFFS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 220) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Game 2 between the Celtics and Bucks. Yesterday the 76ers/Raptors UNDER 221 was my favorite play and that game ended up with a combined score of 183. Keep in mind this was after Game 1 saw just 203 points with a total around 223. 

I think there's very similar value in this play. The Bucks and 76ers combined for 202 points in Game 1, finishing well below the mark of 223. That was with the Celtics shooting a ridiculous 54% from the field. Again, they adjust the total, but only by a couple points. 

These are two very good defensive teams and no one knows how to disrupt an offense like Brad Stevens and he appears to have a pretty good game plan for Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee will match that defensive intensity in a must-win spot. Take the UNDER 220! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 221)

I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Game 2 between the 76ers and Raptors. These two teams combined for just 203 points in Game 1, which closed with a total of 223. The game stayed under the mark by 20-points, even with the two teams combining for 70 points in the 1st quarter (280 pace). The most points the Raptors have allowed in the postseason so far is 104 and that was Game 1 of the first round against the Magic. Since then they have gone 5 straight not allowing more than 96. I expect more of the same with a much better effort on the defensive side from Philly. Give me the UNDER 221! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's series opener against the Twins and Astros. Hard to see Minnesota scoring more than a couple runs. Houston will have Justin Verlander on the mound, who has started out 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in 6 starts. He's struck out 27 in his last 3 starts, giving up just 3 runs on 9 hits in 21 innings over this stretch. Twins counter with Jake Odorizzi, who has a 1.54 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 2 home starts and just limited the Astros to 2 runs in nearly 6 innings of work in his last start. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

40* MLB NO DOUBT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 9) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Monday's series opener between the A's and Red Sox. Oakland's Frankie Montas is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 5 starts and will be facing a Boston offense that is coming off a 2-game series at home against the Rays where they totaled just 3 runs on 12 hits. Red Sox starter, Eduardo Rodriguez has a not so great 5.88 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 5 starts, but is trending in the right direction. Rodriguez has a 3.00 ERA and 0.899 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 2 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 224.5) 

No disrespect to the rest of the league, but I think this is the best series we are going to see the entire postseason, as I firmly believe your 2019 NBA Champion will be whoever wins this series. Golden State knows they were lucky that Chris Paul got hurt last year and I think both teams really have a good understanding of what's at stake here. As much talent as these two teams have in terms of offensive playmakers, both are very strong defensively and I think we see this stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 223.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER at this price all day. I'm actually a bit shocked the number here is more than 220, as I think these are two elite defensive teams. In the most recent meeting, back in late February, the Bucks won by a final score of 98-97 with a total of 227. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 in this one, but even if they do we got room to work with. Give me the UNDER 223.5! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 7) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7 in Friday's MLB action between the Padres and Nationals. Washington will send out their ace Max Scherzer to the mound and I love taking an elite talent like Scherzer off a bad outing, especially against a sub-par offense like the Padres. Key here is the Nationals offense should also be held in check. San Diego's Matt Strahm has quietly posted a strong 3.05 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 4 starts, which includes a 0.90 ERA in 2 road starts. Give me the UNDER 7! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Phillies and Marlins. It's been a rough start for Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, but the guy finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting last year and is coming off a promising outing at Coors Field against the Rockies. It also helps the Marlins offense is atrocious. Miami is only averaging 2.7 runs/game and hitting .215 on the season, which drops off to 1.6 runs/game and .180 on the road. Key here is the Marlins have a top notch starter of their own going in Caleb Smith, who has a 2.35 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 4 starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in this one. Texas just scored 20 runs over back-to-back wins against the Astros over the weekend, but those offensive outbursts came at home. Rangers are averaging 5.8 runs/game on the season, but just 4.0 runs/game on the road, which tells you how much better they are at home than on the road. The Coliseum in Oakland is more of a pitchers park and the average combined score in A's home games this season is 6.7. 

Oakland's offense is in a bit of a slump right now, having scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. Won't be easy snapping out of that funk against the red-hot Mike Minor, who has a 0.78 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in his last 3 starts, which includes a complete game shutout in his last outing at home against the Angels. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's NL clash between the Giants and Pirates. Pittsburgh's PNC Park favors the pitchers and I think we have a couple of underrated guys going head-to-head in this one. Pirates will send out Jameson Taillon, who most expected to be good, but he's been outstanding in his last 3, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP. His best start also came at home against St Louis and that's his only start at home so far in 2019. San Francisco will turn to Derek Holland, who despite a 4.09 ERA has been effective. Even bigger key to Holland having success, is the fact that the Pirates are hitting just .214 as a team and scoring a mere 2.7 runs/game vs left-handed starters this year. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's NL East showdown between the Marlins and Phillies. Miami's offense has been really bad to start 2019. They have been shutout 3 times already, including twice in their last 3 games. They just scored a whopping 1-run in a 3-game series at Cincinnati. I don't see them breaking out of their slump against Phillies starter Jake Arrieta. 

Key here is I don't think Philadelphia will be doing a lot of scoring either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara has one really good start at home against the Rockies (0 ER, 4 Hits, 8 innings) and one poor outing at Atlanta. I think he's going to be one of those guys that is just going to be a lot better at home. Give me the UNDER! 

50* MLB [NL EAST] TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) 

I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 9 in Thursday's NL East clash between the Braves and Mets. This one comes down to the two starters we have going. Atlanta sends out Kevin Gausman, who didn't allow a run and struck out 7 in 7 innings to start 2019. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has made two starts and owns a 0.87 ERA and 1.162 WHIP . Matz is also 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in 7 career starts agains the Braves. Give me the UNDER 9! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5) 

The books just can't seem to set the total high enough in Seattle games. Mariners have played 13 games and only one of them has finished below the posted total. Seattle is not only scoring a bunch, but they are allowing their fair share of runs, which is why the books can't get the number high enough. Mariners are scoring 8.0 runs/game and giving up 4.9 runs/game. 

Neither of tonight's starters have great stuff, the Royals bullpen is atrocious and the wind is blowing out towards left-center at roughly 16 mph. I think this hit's double-digits early. Give me the OVER 9.5! 

40* MLB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8.5. I think we are getting some good value on the number due to the fact that White Sox starter, Reynaldo Lopez, has a 10.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in his first 2 starts. The key here is conditions are going to make runs difficult to come by. Temps are expected in the high 30's with wind chill closer to freezing. Wind will also be blowing in from left field at 10+ mph. Rays will send out Tyler Glasnow, who has a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! 

50* VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH SHAPR MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 118) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER, as I just don't see any reason to overthink this one. You have arguably the two best defensive teams in the country facing off. Neither team likes to push the pace and both have their limitations on the offensive side of the ball. Texas Tech only combined for 112 in their win over Michigan State and Virginia's victory over Auburn saw just 125. I think this could be really tough to watch for those that don't like defense, as I think it could be a race to 50 points. Give me the UNDER 118. 

50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in Sunday's NL Central clash between the Reds and Pirates. Love both the starters going in this one and both were sharp in their first starts of 2019. Pittsburgh will send out Chris Archer, allowed just 2 hits with 8 K's in 5 shutout innings in his first start. Cincinnati will counter with Anthony Desclafani, who allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 K's in 5 innings. Bet the UNDER 8! 

50* FINAL FOUR PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 132) 

I'm shocked this total is in the 130's. I'll gladly take my chances it stays below the mark. Michigan State surprised everyone by beating Duke, but they only managed 68 points on 43% shooting in the win. The Blue Devils play good defense on just their talent. Texas Tech's defense is on a whole different level. 

All Michigan State has to do is ask their biggest rival in Michigan, who the Red Raiders held to a mere 44 points and 33% shooting. Michigan State's offense might be a little better than the Wolverines, but not by much. 

Spartans are also a very strong defense team and I just think it's going to be a struggle for both sides to reach 50 points and this total is basically asking both teams to score 66. Give me the UNDER 132! 

40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Padres/Cardinals staying under the mark set by the books. I just think 7.5 is a really good number given the caliber a talent in today's two starters. Michael Wacha is flying under the radar. Injuries have limited him of late, but when healthy he's been really good. 

He was sharp in his first start, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits with 7 strikeouts on the road against a potent Brewers offense. San Diego's Chris Paddack only gave up 1 run on 2 hits with 7 strikeouts in his big league debut. I really like him going forward. I think both offenses struggle to get anything going. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* MLB AL EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 7.5 in Thursday's AL East clash between the Yankees and Orioles. New York has James Paxton on the mound and he's one of the best pitchers in the AL. He only gave up 1 earned run and 4 hits in 5 2/3 innings in his first start. Orioles offense has cooled off last two games, scoring 3 or less in both games. Don't see them scoring a lot here. 

Yankees offense has scored exactly 1 run in each of their last 2 games and 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. They are without one of the better hitters in Stanton and probably aren't going to go off until it starts warming up and the ball carries a little better. Orioles will also have Alex Cobb on the mound, who was much better in the 2nd half of last year and is only a few years removed from posting back-to-back seasons where he had an ERA under 3.00 in 20+ starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5! 

50* NIT SEMIFINAL *MAX BET* TOP PLAY (Over 150.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Tuesday's NIT semifinal action between  Wichita State and Lipscomb. For those that haven't watched the Bisons, they have one of the best players you haven't heard of in Garrison Mathews. The guy just put up 44 points against NC State. He can really do it all, as he made 14 shots in total, including 8 from behind the 3-point line. He's playing out of his mind in the NIT and I think the assumption here is that Wichita State is going to be able to shut him down. 

I don't think so and as long as Mathews plays well, this thing should easily eclipse this total. Not only is Mathews a prolific scorer, but this Lipscomb team plays at the 14th fastest pace in the country. They are also a very unselfish team (24 assists on 34 made field goals vs NC State). They have scored at leas 86 in all 3 NIT games and given up 80+ twice. 

Note that while the Shockers aren't giving up a ton in the NIT, they have played 3 teams that don't like to push the tempo in Indiana (216th), Clemson (252nd) and Furman (231st). The closest thing to Lipscomb that Wichita State has seen in terms of pace is Memphis (7th). Both meetings saw at least 159 points and both times Memphis got to 85 points. Also, Tigers won both of those games, so I would definitely lean Lipscomb for those wanting to play a side. I just see more value in the total. Give me the OVER 150.5! 

40* MLB LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 8 in Monday's NL West clash between the Dodgers and Giants. While LA has been lighting up the scoreboard, they have played a lot of their games early. Ball just doesn't carry as well at night in LA. I also like both of these starters and each are coming off a strong showing this spring. Julio Urias had a 1.72 ERA and 0.51 WHIP with 15/3 K/BB ratio in 15.2 innings. Drew Pomeranz had a 2.81 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. I think we have a full run of value, which is a lot with a MLB total. Give me the UNDER 8! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 219) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 219 in Monday's NBA action between the Jazz and Hornets. Charlotte is playing a lot of young guys and are getting abused on the defensive side of the floor here of late. Hornets just let the Warriors shoot 60% from the field for the game and have allowed 56% or worse in 3 of their last 4. Utah is known for their defense, but have scored 110 or more in 10 straight. I think this easily eclipses 220. Give me the OVER 219! 

50* MLB OPENING DAY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Over 8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 8 in this one. The Reds and Pirates might not have what it takes to compete with the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers for the NL Central crown, but these are not bad teams by any means. I think both have a lot more offensive fire-power than they get credit for and there's a couple other key factors that should lead to a lot of runs being scored. 

For starters, the Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in the league and while it won't be carrying as well as it will in June/July/August, it's expected to be in the 70's with the wind blowing straight out to left field at close to 15 mph. 

As for the pitching matchup, Pirates Jameson Taillon had a mere 4.85 ERA in Spring Training and is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Reds. Cincinnati will turn to Luis Castillo, who is 1-3 with a 4.00 ERA in 5 starts vs the Pirates and gave up 12 runs on 13 hits and 5 walk in a mere 8 2/3 innings in Spring Training. Give me the OVER 8! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)

I"ll take my chances with Tuesdays' marquee matchup between the Bucks/Rockets going UNDER the total set by the books. Anytime you get two elite teams paired against each other, I think both teams come out looking to make a statement, especially when those teams each have an MVP-caliber player like we have here with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

There's also other incentives here. Milwaukee is trying to secure the No. 1 seed so they can start getting some guys like Giannis some much-needed rest over the final few weeks. Houston on the other is desperately trying to stay in the No. 3 seed in the west. 

These are also two teams that are very underrated on the defensive side of things and both have been playing really well on that side of the ball of late. Houston is only giving up 105.6 ppg over their last 5 and Milwaukee isn't far back allowing 106.0 in their last 5. UNDER is 15-5-1 in Rockets last 21 and 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 at home vs a team with a winning record. Give me the UNDER 225! 

50* NCAA 1ST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 126.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Friday's matchup between Virginia Tech and St. Louis. I don't think either of these two teams are going to find it easy to score, as both of these teams are built on their defense. Both rank in the Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. St Louis also likes to grind things out and limit the number of possessions, which is ideal for unders. It's why the UNDER has cashed in 37 of the last 54 non-conference games for the Billikens. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

 40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's marquee matchup between the Spurs and Warriors. Golden State is coming off one of it's best defensive performances of the season, as they held Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the OKC Thunder to just 88 points on 32.3% shooting in Saturday's 22-point blowout win. The game before they limited James Harden and the Rockets to 104 points. Spurs have won 8 straight and during this run have been locking opponents down. San Antonio has allowed more than 105 in just one game during this hot stretch and we can bank on a big effort here. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5) 

I wanted to take the Warriors here off that embarrassing loss to the Celtics, but the spread is just a little too high for my liking. Good news is I like the OVER just as much, if not more, as these are two of the top offensive teams in the league. Both of which are not playing all that great defensively as they try to adjust to playing with a new star. For Golden State it's DeMarcus Cousins and for Denver it's Isaiah Thomas. Last time these two teams played the Warriors won 142-111 as they combined for 253. I don't know if they get there, but they easily hit 235. Give me the OVER 234.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 233.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 233.5 in Sunday's Western Conference showdown between Denver and Los Angeles. Nuggets are finally healthy and simply have a plethora of playmakers at their disposal. I just think they are going to be extremely tough to contain and we saw that in their first game back from the break. Denver shot a miserable 40.8% from the field and yet still put up 114 points. Clippers will have no answer and really have no choice but to try to outshoot the Nuggets, which should have this thing flying past the number. Give me the OVER 233.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 213.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Clippers and Grizzlies going OVER the total of 213.5. I just think there's some value here on both sides. I think the perception is that LAC is not going to be as potent offensively after trading away one of their top scorers in Tobias Harris, but they made some sneaky good additions in other trades and put up 120+ in each of their final 3 before the break. 

As for the Grizzlies, it's the opposite. This team has the perception of being this defensive juggernaut. However, that was before they traded away the anchor in the middle in Marc Gasol. Memphis is in full on rebuilding mode and just aren't going to bring that energy and effort on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch. Give me the OVER 213.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 229) 

I'll take my chances here with the Blazers and Nets combining for at least 230 points. Brooklyn is a team that likes to get up and down the floor and are averaging a healthy 114.9 ppg at home this season. Portland can run and gun as well and giving up 113.3 ppg on the road. 

More than anything, I think the pace will be up there in this game with both teams well rested out of the All-Star break. Last year the OVER was 9-5 in the first game back from the break and the few that went UNDER barely stayed under the mark. Last time these two played in Brooklyn they combined for 252. 

It's also worth noting the Blazers have recently added Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter and we almost always see teams struggle defensively when new pieces are added. Give me the OVER 229! 

50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 218) 

I'll gladly take my chances here in this bottom-feeder showdown between the Suns and Cavs. I just don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one. These are two awful teams that really are better off losing than winning right now. There's just no motivation for either side to be 100% locked in on the defensive side. 

Not that these two teams could play quality defense if they wanted to. Phoenix has allowed at least 116 points in 13 straight games. I know the Cavs aren't a great offensive team, but they are a lot better now that Kevin Love is back in the lineup. Cleveland gives up 113 points/game and Suns have only failed to reach 100 points once in their last 8 games. I think this thing finishes a lot closer to 230 than 220. Give me the OVER 218! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 157.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Buffalo and Toledo going OVER the mark set by the books. These two teams played at Buffalo back in early January and combined for 190 points in a 110-80 win for the Bulls. I just don't see a change in venue being enough for the Rockets to slow down this high-powered Buffalo offense, which is averaging 85.2 ppg and shooting 47% from the field in conference play. However, I could see Toledo keeping pace at home, as the Rockets are scoring 78.7 ppg at home. OVER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Bulls last 9 road games in the month of February. Give me the OVER 157.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 137.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 137.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten clash between Minnesota and Nebraska. Gophers have lost 3 straight and the Cornhuskers have dropped 7 in a row, so both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. I think that leads to a big defensive effort and a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting.

While these two combined for 163 points back in early December, a lot has changed since that game. Nebraska has lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland and their offense has simply been non-existent of late. Cornhuskers are averaging 56.4 ppg on a mere 32% shooting over their last 5. 

They have no choice but to rely on their defense to win and they are only giving up 56.8 ppg at home. Minnesota is also a completely different offensive team on the road, as they average 72.6 ppg on the season, yet have only put up 63.4 ppg on 39% shooting away from home. Give me the UNDER 137.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 208.5) 

*I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 208.5 in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Grizzlies. Memphis just held Anthony Davis and the Pelicans to 90 points on 39.5% shooting. This team is starting to find its rhythm defensively again and they really need it with how their offense is struggling to get easy looks. Memphis hasn't shot better than 44% from the field in 6 straight games. Spurs defense has been the culprit in their 4-game losing streak. I think we see a big effort on that side following a much-needed 2-day break. Give me the UNDER 208.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 132) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan State and Wisconsin going UNDER the total of 132. These are two really good defensive teams and it's no secret that the Badgers love to slow things way down and really grind out a win. The Spartans had lost 3 straight before a dominant 79-55 win at home over Minnesota, where they held the Gophers to just 37% shooting. Tom Izzo really pushed his players after the 3-game losing streak and I think we see that same effort we saw against Minnesota in this one. As for the Badgers, they absolutely have to have this one if they want a shot at a Big Ten title. Give me the UNDER 132! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 138) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 clash between Oklahoma and Baylor. The Bears have seen the OVER cash in each of their last 3, but did manage just 63 points last time out against K-State and are dealing with some major injuries. They already lost Tristan Clark to a season-ending injury and may be without their next best player in Makai Mason, as well as King McClure. Both were held out of Saturday's game, which makes unlikely they will play just a couple days later. Baylor is going to have focus more on the defensive side of the ball. As for Oklahoma, they have really been struggling offensively and are coming off a game against Texas Tech where they managed just 54 points. I think both teams will struggle to reach 65. Give me the UNDER 138! 

50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 227) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. OVER is perfect 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 and they are playing ideal basketball for the OVER to cash. Bulls are shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better in 6 straight and are playing little to no defense in the process. Don't be fooled by Milwaukee's 83-points last time out with the Greek Freak sidelined. This team will have no problem scoring 120+ here against the Bulls. I'm confident Chicago adds enough to push this well past the mark. Give me the OVER 227! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 234) 

I'll take my chances with the Lakers and 76ers going OVER the mark of 234. I just think there's too much offensive fire-power in this one. Not to mention teams just don't play real hard defensively in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Not only are players looking ahead to the break, but they are starting to wear down. Lakers last two games have saw them give up 136 to the Pacers and 128 to the Celtics. They have allowed 120 or more points in 8 of their last 10 games. 76ers have allowed 110 or more in 5 of their last 7 and have scored at least 106 in every game they have played since the calendar turned to 2019. Give me the OVER! 

40* NBA BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 228.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's NBA clash between the Hawks and Hornets. No team plays at a faster pace in the NBA than Atlanta and only the Knicks, Suns and Cavs are ranked lower in defensive efficiency than the Hawks. That's a pretty good combo for high-scoring games. Charlotte only managed 93 last time out at Dallas, but had scored 115+ in their previous 2 and will be facing a Hawks defense that has allowed 7 straight opponents to reach at least 112 points. Atlanta has also scored 112 or more in 7 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 222.5)

I'll take my chances with the Jazz and Rockets combining for at least 223 points. Houston doesn't figure to have Chris Paul, who is one of the better defenders. It's just going to be run and gun and hope Harden puts up 50 because the defensive effort won't be there on no rest. Utah's defense has been shaky of late and the Jazz are also playing on no rest. I think both teams could score 125 points and all we really need is for one of the two to get there to secure a win. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Under 131) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 131 in Friday's Big Ten action between Maryland and Wisconsin. These two teams already played once this season in a defensive battle, as the Terps squeaked out a 64-60 win at home back on Jan 14th. Both teams shot under 39% from the field. I don't see any reason to expect anything different. Maryland is allowing 62.2 ppg on the road and will be motivated to get a big signature win after losing 2 of their last 3. Wisconsin only gives up 61.7 ppg at home and will be out for revenge. Give me the UNDER 131! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 226.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 226.5 on the total for the Hawks/Jazz. I usually don't like playing the OVER in games involving Utah, but I like the spot we are in. Atlanta's the ideal over team. The Hawks play at the fastest tempo in the league and are also one of the worst defensive teams. 

Utah's defense has been slipping of late and while some might expect a big effort here after giving up 132 at Portland last time out, I just don't see the Jazz laying it all on the line against a bad team like the Hawks, especially with James Harden and the Rockets coming to town tomorrow. 

OVER is 7-2 in Utah's last 9 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-2-1 in their last 12 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 234) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in this one. I just think the number here has been set way too high. Both teams have to be battling fatigue, as each will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. For New Orleans they are playing on no rest, as they hosted Detroit last night. Pelicans are also without their best player in Anthony Davis. On top of that, both E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Mirotic were banged up against the Pistons and are questionable to play. I think these two will be lucky to hit 220. Give me the UNDER 234! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 219.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 219.5 in this one. Both Charlotte and Indiana will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set, as the Hornets hosted the Suns on Saturday while the Pacers hosted the Mavs. Both teams won rather easily, so I'm expecting a little more edge defensive than you would typically see in a game with both teams on no rest. UNDER is 35-17 in the Pacers last 52 home games 13-4-1 in their last 18 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. UNDER is also 22-7 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Indiana. Give me the UNDER 219.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 225)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Eastern Conference showdown between the 76ers and Pacers. Both teams come in playing well, as the Pacers are 9-2 in their last 11, while Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 and off a 149-107 blowout win against Minnesota. I just think the defensive effort is going to be there for both teams and when these two want to, they can be elite defensive teams. Clearly there's offensive talent on both sides, but with the total where it is it's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 225! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 226.5) 

First off, for those that don't know, this game is being played in London. That right there has me thinking there will be a lack of defense played. That's even more so when you factor the caliber a teams we have here with the Knicks and Wizards. Washington has been playing decent, surprisingly since John Wall went down. I just think the ball is moving a little more and it's resulted in the ball going in the hoop more frequently. Wizards have scored at least 109 in 8 straight and 121 ppg over their last 7. Knicks are giving up 117 ppg on the road, so 120+ from Washington should be easy. All we need is for New York to hit around 110-115 for this to fly over and the Wizards are giving up 118.7 ppg. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 224.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in tonight's NBA action between the Jazz and Clippers. With their top 3 point guards all injured, Utah has really had to rely on their defense of late and they come in having held each of their last 4 opponents to 41.2% or worse from the field. 

While they have scored 100+ in 4 straight, they have not shot the ball well at all of late. The Jazz are shooting 42.4% from the field in their last 5. Clippers have held their last 5 opponents to 43.2% shooting and I think we get a big effort on that side from LA, as they come in having lost 3 straight and really can't afford to lose here with their upcoming schedule not all that favorable. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER in this one. The Rockets are a great offensive team, but are playing short-handed right now and in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights. I just don't see them playing with the same pace offensively and tired legs is bad news for a team that loves to shoot 3-pointers like the Rockets. Add in Memphis desperately needing a win and the Grizzlies being a team that wants to grind games out with a methodical pace and stingy defense. All adds up to a low scoring game. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

50* NBA WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 224) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's TNT clash between the Spurs and Thunder. This just feels like way too many points given how well both of these teams are playing on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio has been playing great defense for over a month now and OKC has held each of their last 5 opponents under 44% from the field. Spurs are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and Thunder are running on fumes as well, which will keep the pace down. While these two haven't played yet this season, 6 of the last 7 meetings have gone UNDER the total. Give me the UNDER 224! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 230.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in tonight's NBA action that has the Kings and Suns going head-to-head. These two teams are ideal for a high-scoring game. Sacramento plays at the second fastest pace in the NBA, so possessions for both teams will be up there. The even bigger key is the lack of defense these two teams play. Both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency. Kings give up 117.9 ppg on the road and the Suns allow 112.9 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 147) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Saturday's huge Big Ten clash between No. 14 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan State. I actually think the line is pretty spot on, but I see a ton of value with the UNDER. These are two really good defensive teams. Michigan State is holding opponents nearly 9 points below their season average and Ohio State is holding opponents nearly 14 points under their average. I just think the fact that both teams come in off high-scoring games is playing into this inflated total. UNDER is 13-4 in the Buckeyes last 17 after scoring 80 or more and 9-2 in the Spartans last 11 after 2 straight blowout wins by 20+ points. Give me the UNDER 147! 

40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 138)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten clash between Nebraska and Maryland. Both of these teams are playing outstanding defense. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 57.8 ppg and holding teams to 37.4% from the field. The Terps are only giving up 65.2 ppg, while holding opponents to 40.3% shooting. Both teams went 1-1 in their 2 early conference games and both are going to be highly motivated to make sure they get to 2-1 and not 1-2. UNDER is 8-1 in Nebraska's last 9 with a line of +3 to -3 and 12-3 in Maryland's last 15 conference games. Give me the UNDER 138! 

40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball. 

New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason. 

No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Kings hosting the Lakers. I'm expecting zero defense to be played here. The Lakers are coming off that huge win on the road over the Warriors Christmas Day. They are primed for a letdown off that huge win, especially given they won't have LeBron or Rondo for this contest. Kings love to push the pace and I the young Lakers will gladly play that style here and both teams should eclipse 120. Bet the OVER 231! 

50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 222.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. There's no doubt we get that level of intensity from these two division rivals. I think we could see both teams struggle to simply get to 100 points. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 221.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER. There's always a ton of value with the UNDER in these Christmas Day games, as this isn't just another regular-season game. Players consider it an honor to play on Christmas and more times than not we see playoff-like intensity. I see a ton of value here in this particular matchup. OKC is one of those teams that can be an elite defensive team when they want to and they know they will have to bring it on the road against James Harden and the Rockets. Key here is Houston is without Chris Paul and they just aren't the same offensive team without him on the floor. Give me the UNDER 221.5!

50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50) 

For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.

A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.

This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.

As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.

I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!