Can the Pacers become only the third team in the last 47 years to win a Game 7 NBA Championship Series on the road?

No.

The marketplace is in love with the Pacers for this Game 7. The oddsmaker opened Oklahoma City minus 9. Many bettors remember what they last saw and that was the Pacers wiping out the Thunder, 108-91, in Game 6.

That game was in Indiana. This one is in Oklahoma City where the Thunder have a home net rating of plus 20.7 in the playoffs. Oklahoma City also is 6-0 following a loss in the postseason. Indiana has not beaten Oklahoma City twice in a row during the series. The Pacers have lost by 11 and 16 points in their last two away games versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the NBA. No team creates more turnovers than the Thunder. Indiana's most dynamic player, Tyrese Haliburton, is not 100 percent. If the Pacers fall behind, which I expect, they will get desperate with this being Game 7. That could lead to even a larger winning margin for the Thunder.

I'm backing the Pacers knowing they might not have Tyrese Haliburton, or a severely banged-up Haliburton if he does play.

There is one certainty for this Game 6 matchup. The Pacers are home, in must-win mode and will be playing their guts out. Here's another fact, the Thunder are 1-8 ATS on the road during the playoffs. They just are not trustworthy away from Oklahoma City.

Indiana happens to be 3-0 ATS in Game 6's and 3-0 ATS when facing elimination under elite coach Rick Carlisle.  

The Pacers have had the stronger bench and all five of their starters averaged double-digits this season. They have the depth with T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard to compensate for Haliburton's situation. McConnell is playing at a high level averaging 11.2 points, 4.2 assists and two steals a game during 18 minutes of playing time.

I've seen enough. I don't know if the Pacers are quite good enough to win this championship series, but they sure are worthy of hanging around. So I'm not turning down this many points.

Yes, Oklahoma City has proven tough at home. Indiana, though, hasn't been chopped liver on the road in the postseason going 7-3 SU and ATS. The Pacers also have covered 66 percent of the time the past 74 times following a home loss.

I thought the Thunder would have a bench advantage. That hasn't been the case. Indiana has been able to play faster than Oklahoma City is comfortable with no matter what players are on the floor.

The series is tied at 2-2. That's because the Thunder got past the Pacers on the road in Game 4 after Indiana won Game 3 at home, 116-107. The Pacers could have won that Game 4, too. They certainly are not outclassed in this series, which this lopsided point spread indicates.

The points are too generous for me to pass up.

Pace tends to slow down and defensive intensity goes up the deeper that NBA playoff series goes on. 

Heavily favored Oklahoma City finds itself in trouble now down 2-1 in these NBA Finals. The Thunder have the best defense in the NBA. However, they have averaged just 107.9 points on the road during the playoffs. They can not count on anyone besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to come through on the offensive end. 

So I see the Thunder going back to their roots of stressing defense and walking the ball up the court. They don't want to get in an open-court back-and-forth with the Pacers, especially on the road. Their offense seems out of sync. I envision the Thunder being more patient offensively while being fully aware to get back quickly to defense, or Indiana will get easy fast-break points. 

The Pacers are where they are now because their defense has proven underrated. The Pacers have allowed fewer than 113 points per 100 possessions since the second week of December. That's above average.

If there was a doubt that Oklahoma City was overrated against Indiana in these NBA Finals following Game 1, it was erased with the Thunders' smashing, 123-107, beatdown of the Pacers in Game 2. 

The scene shifts to Indiana now. But I don't see anything changing. I'm in agreement with the oddsmaker that Oklahoma City is much the superior team. 

I don't believe the overachieving Pacers have the antidote to the Thunder's deadly combination of tremendous depth plus superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City rode that combo to the best record during the regular season and no team in the playoffs has been able to combat it. 

You can't win an NBA championship without at least one superstar. The Pacers' closest player to that distinction is the mercurial Tyrese Haliburton. I'll take Gilgeous-Alexander above Haliburton, especially with Haliburton seen limping following Indiana's Game 2 loss.

Unlike what this inflated point spread may indicate, this Game 1 moment isn't too big for the Pacers. It wouldn't even shock me if the Pacers stole this road game. 

The Pacers have four strong things going for them: They are the most accurate 3-point shooting percentage team in the postseason hitting at a 40.1 percent clip. They take care of the ball ranking third in turnover rate, which is where they finished during the regular season, and they are extremely well coached by Rick Carlisle. That results in the fourth factor, a tremendous point spread mark.

Indiana has covered 11 of its 16 playoff games for 69 percent! This includes a 6-1 ATS record during their past seven road games. When it comes to Game 1's, the Pacers are 3-0 with victories against the Bucks and straight-up road wins against the Cavaliers and Knicks as underdogs. 

The situation also is good for the underdog. Indiana last played on Friday. So the Pacers have had a good rest and the dangerous Carlisle has had ample time to draw up a solid game plan. The Pacers were 7-1 SU and ATS when they played this season with at least three days of rest. 

On the other hand, Oklahoma City has been idle for eight days. That's too long. It adds an extra element of randomness into the equation. Randomness is good for a large underdog. 

By the way, the Thunder had nine days off before they played the Nuggets after opening their postseason with a sweep of the Grizzlies. The Thunder were 10 1/2-point home favorites and lost that Game 1 to the Nuggets straight-up.

The Knicks stole a couple of games from the Celtics then caught a break when Jayson Tatum got hurt. The Knicks weren't better than the Celtics and they aren't better than Indiana. Sure New York has been somewhat magical. But I don't see them coming back from 3-1 down in this Eastern Conference series. A team hasn't done that in the East since 1981.

Since I regard the Pacers as the superior team, I'm backing them as an underdog in this Game 5.

The game is at Madison Square Garden. But getting this many points with the Pacers is well worth them being the away team and fading the zig/zag theory. Indiana has won and covered each of its last six road playoff games.

The deeper the series goes the more Indiana has the advantage. I say this because the Pacers have the better depth and coach. Not helping matters for the Knicks is that Karl-Anthony Towns also could be limited due to a knee injury.

Even though Jalen Brunson has emerged a superstar during the postseason, the Pacers' starters have been superior to New York's. The Pacers are quicker and more explosive. They've forced the Knicks to commit an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers per game in the series. Tyrese Haliburton has negated Brunson's dominance by his speed and all-around skill set.

Yes, Oklahoma City is the superior team and playing at home. But the tax to back the Thunder is way too high, especially given Minnesota is facing elimination. The Timberwolves have covered the past two games losing by only two points and winning by 42 points.

Since Feb. 13, the Timberwolves only have been an underdog of eight or more points three times. All were against the Thunder. Minnesota covered all three of those games, winning two straight-up.

The Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU when facing an elimination game under Chris Finch. 

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, Minnesota's two best players, made 21 of 32 shots for a combined 54 points in Game 3. The pair, however, were only 6-of-20 from the floor for 21 points in Game 4. They probably won't be as hot as they were in Game 3, but certainly should be better than their Game 4 performance. Even with those two shooting so poorly, the Timberwolves only lost by two points. That bodes well for the Timberwolves staying within the number here.

OK, the Knicks got their first victory in this Eastern Conference Finals two days ago, 106-100. Credit to them. 

But the reality is the Knicks accomplished this by coming from 20 points down against what could have been an overconfident Pacers squad that was up 2-0 in the series, getting a monster performance from Karl-Anthony Towns and having the Pacers shoot horribly from 3-point range and commit an uncharacteristic eight turnovers in the second half. 

I see the Pacers cleaning this up and beating the Knicks at home in this Game 4. Indiana has the superior depth. The teams are playing for the fourth time in seven days. Sixth man Josh Hart went 34 minutes for the Knicks on Sunday. He might not be so effective being banged-up and on short rest.
 
Indiana shot 37.9 percent from 3-point range at home during the season. They made only 5-of-25 shots from beyond the arc on Sunday. That's 20 percent. The Pacers also had the third-lowest turnover ratio during the season, second in the playoffs. 

Coaching is another reason I like the Pacers. Rick Carlisle is a better tactician than Tom Thibodeau. As the series goes more games, the coaching edge grows.

Now that the Timberwolves got their bad game out of the way, I'm expecting a much better performance from them in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals. 

One of the keys is the open looks were there for the Timberwolves. They just couldn't connect, especially key reserves Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo. Those two were a miserable 4-for-25 combined from the field. 

Minnesota also didn't do a good job of setting up Anthony Edwards. He attempted only 13 field goals, his second-fewest shots in 38 career playoff games. Julius Randle was his steady reliable self, though. Randle scored 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the floor. He's averaging 24.3 points in 11 playoff games this season hitting 52.3 percent from the floor and 39.3 percent from 3-point range. So the Thunder just can't key on Edwards. 

Oklahoma City can't but feel relaxed and perhaps overconfident after winning Game 1 by 26 points. The Timberwolves have to feel humbled and highly motivated to redeem their honor. 

The Thunder is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a win. Minnesota has won eight of its 11 playoff games. The Timberwolves are 2-0 SU and ATS following each of their previous postseason losses. They covered six of eight playoff games as a road underdog last season. Minnesota also went 11-6 for 65 percent as a road 'dog during the regular season.

The last time the Timberwolves lost two in a row by more than seven points, was way back on Dec. 21 and Dec. 23. That's a span of 65 games!

I regard the Pacers as the superior team. So, of course, I'm going to accept this many points with them. Indiana has the highest winning percentage in the playoffs at 80 percent winning eight of its 10 games. If you dip into the regular season, Indiana is 15-3 in its past 18 games.

Being on the road shouldn't bother the Pacers. They won all three of their away games against the Cavaliers in their last series.

The Knicks are heavily reliant upon Jalen Brunson and the rest of their starters. The Pacers have the better depth and two-way players. Indiana's players are incredibly versatile. Brunson may be the top offensive player on the court, but it's Indiana that outscores the Knicks by an average of 11 points during these playoffs. The Pacers are hitting 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent from 3-point range during the first two rounds.

The Pacers also are the fresher team. The Knicks still may be celebrating eliminating the Celtics.

I have enormous respect for Brunson, who's developed into a superstar for the Knicks. But after that give me Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. These guys aren't stars with the exception of Haliburton, but they complement each other well and are playing outstanding basketball. I see that continuing here.

Judging by the series price and Game 1 point spread it seems preordained that the Thunder are going to roll past the Timberwolves in this Western Conference Finals series.

Oklahoma City deserves to be favored. Just not by such inflated prices. The Thunder are especially vulnerable in Tuesday's Game 1 having just eliminated the Nuggets in Game 7 this past Sunday.

Minnesota, meanwhile, took care of business last Wednesday. The Timberwolves have had six days of rest and preparation for this series opener.

But it's not just the situation why I believe the Timberwolves will cover - if not beat the Thunder straight-up on Tuesday. People that should know better are sleeping on the Timberwolves.

Anthony Edwards is blossoming into a superstar. He's averaging 26.5 points in the playoffs. Jaden McDaniels is becoming one of the best two-way players and Julius Randle is playing the finest basketball of his life, which is a high bar. The Timberwolves are 30-6 in Randle's last 36 games.

Oklahoma City hasn't been in the position it is now, expected to win not only this series but its first championship. Minnesota has never won an NBA championship either. But the pressure is on the Thunder, not the Timberwolves.

While the Thunder had to labor seven games to take care of the Nuggets, the Timberwolves took out the Lakers in five games and then won four straight against the Warriors after losing the series opener.

My first lean is to the Under when it comes to getting involved with a Game 7. After studying this matchup, I feel confident going with my initial thoughts that Denver-Oklahoma City are going Under in this Game 7. 

Yes, I'm aware the teams combined for 226 points in the Nuggets' 119-107 Game 6 win this past Thursday. 

Previous to Game 6, however, the Thunder had held the Nuggets to an average of 100 points in regulation during the past four games, while Denver had held Oklahoma City to an average of 103.2 points in regulation during the last four games before Game 6. 

The Thunder ranked either first or second in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are the best defensive team in the NBA. The Nuggets may be without Aaron Gordon, their fourth-leading scorer, who has a hamstring injury. 

Denver isn't as good defensively as the Thunder. But the Nuggets have deep playoff experience and can impose their will physically on the younger Thunder. Oklahoma City has shot 27.5 percent and 24.4 percent from 3-point range in two of the last three games.

Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is a master defensive strategist. He's going to make proper adjustments after the Celtics blew the Knicks out, 127-102, in Wednesday's Game 5. Thibodeau's task is made easier with Jayson Tatum out and Kristap Porzingis rendered ineffective because of a viral illness.

Boston doesn't get enough credit for its outstanding defense. The Celtics finished in the top-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

If you discount the Knicks' 121-113 Game 4 victory, the Celtics have held New York to an average of 96.5 points during regulation in the other four games of this series.

Unders have been the way to go this deep into the playoffs in Games 6 and 7. Teams are dealing with fatigue at this late stage. Their concentration and intensity occurs more on defense than offense. That's the way I see this one playing out.

It was the Jayson Tatum-less Celtics who stepped up and played with desperation at home in Game 5 this past Wednesday. That paid off in a big way as Boston staved off elimination.

Helping matters for the Celtics was hitting 22 of 49 3-point shots for 45 percent. That's nearly 10 percent better than they averaged during the regular season.

Now it's the Knicks' turn to play with desperation knowing a home loss here means a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Zero chance that the Knicks take the Celtics for granted knowing Tatum is out. That may have been the case, at least subconsciously, in Game 5.

Jalen Brunson now becomes the best player on the court with Tatum out. Little, if any, chance Brunson fouls out like he did on Wednesday after playing fewer than 33 minutes.

The Celtics have another key injury besides Tatum. Kristaps Porzingis, their best big man, could only log 12 first-half minutes before coming out of Game 5 because of a viral illness. Breathing issues may have contributed to Porzingis averaging a puny 4.2 points per game in the series. Reserve center Luke Kornet doesn't present the potential offense that Porzingis could supply if he were 100 percent.  

The Knicks have managed to steal three games in this series. They are overdue to play their "A" game for much of the game instead of just at the end. New York is home and Boston has crucial injuries and may have used up all their mental energy in winning Game 5.

I find enough evidence to believe the Knicks will close out the Celtics in Friday's Game 6.

There's a reason why the Thunder are a road favorite against the Nuggets. They are the superior team. I look for the Thunder to close out Denver in Thursday's Game 6 Western Conference semifinal.

What gives me the confidence to say that is the Thunder are better defensively, have a much stronger bench, have less fatigue and their confidence and savvy has grown as the series has progressed. Oklahoma City has won the last two games in the series by poise and execution.

"We're a better team today than we were at the beginning of the series," Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault was quoted as saying. "We're definitely evolving and growing and learning."

The Thunder were the best team in the NBA entering the series - and are even better now.

Denver is wearing down as the series progresses. Interim Nuggets coach David Adelman had three players logging at least 42 minutes during Tuesday's Game 5. Aaron Gordon played 37 minutes. Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting is off because of an injured left shoulder.

By contrast, the Thunder had only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play more than 38 minutes on Tuesday.

The Nuggets primarily have used just seven players. The fatigue factor weighs heavy on them. Oklahoma City is the fresher team. That's another key reason why I favor the Thunder to close out the series here.

The absence of superstar Jayson Tatum and the continued poor coaching of Joe Mazzulla very well could mean the playoff outster of the Celtics to the Knicks. But I don't see that happening in Wednesday's Game 5 in Boston.

The Celtics are going to be super motivated with tremendous resolve to win this game having suffered three collapses in this series to the Knicks, a team they are superior to. The obvious question is just how much better are the Celtics to the Knicks without Tatum?

Given the circumstances - step-up situation, being home and with the season on the line - I envision Boston playing with fire and brimstone that results in a blowout victory.

The Celtics won 71 percent of the time with Tatum. They are 8-2 (80 percent) without him. So the Celtics actually have a higher winning percentage when they were missing Tatum. All of those victories without Tatum were by at least six points, too.

If there's a key number in basketball it's 6. So getting anything more than six points with the home underdog Knicks in this crucial Game 4 playoff game is good value.

The Knicks aren't in Boston's class. However, the Knicks are resilient. They stole two games in Boston coming from 20 points down in each game. They have six playoff victories - and trailed in the fourth quarter during each game.

I don't see the Celtics routing the Knicks like they did in Game 3 when they won by 22 points. That was the Celtics' season and manhood being challenged. Boston also shot 50 percent from 3-point range making 20 of 40 shots in the win.

The Celtics certainly were due to shoot better than 25 percent from beyond the arc, which was their combined 3-point percentage during the first two games of the series. But highly unlikely they make half of their 3-pointers again. Probably somewhere in the middle since they ranked 10th in the league during the regular season in 3-point accuracy at 36.8 percent.

The Knicks always have been above average defensively under Tom Thibodeau, who is well-respected in the NBA for his defensive acumen. The Knicks ranked 10th during the regular season defensively.

The Celtics restored some sanity to the NBA playoffs with their road blowout victory against the Knicks on Saturday. Now I'm expecting the same from the Thunder against the Nuggets in the Western Conference.

Denver leads this series, 2-1. But Oklahoma City is the superior team. The Thunder have led 82 percent of the time during this series. Not only are the Thunder a top-notch scoring team with better athletes and a deeper bench than Denver, but they are far better defensively than the Nuggets.

Oklahoma City has held Nikola Jokic to 14-of-41 shooting (34 percent) from the floor and forced him to commit 14 turnovers during the past two games. 

Credit to the Nuggets for managing a series lead despite being more banged-up than Oklahoma City and having an interim coach. But a return to normalcy is set to take place Sunday in Denver. 

The Thunder are an ascending team. They were the best during the regular season - and nothing has changed my mind that they still aren't the best. A Thunder blowout would not surprise me. It happened two games ago when Oklahoma City whipped Denver by a whopping 43 points.

Denver suffered a 34-point blowout loss to the Clippers in their opening series round, which went a grueling seven games. The Nuggets suffered two blowout losses - by 26 and 45 points - to the Timberwolves in the playoffs last season. The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets in that series last year. The Thunder are better than that Timberwolves team.

What are the chances of the Celtics blowing two 20-point leads at home?

What are the chances of the Celtics missing 75 of 100 3-point shots in those games?

What are the chances of Jayson Tatum missing 30 of 42 shots in those games?

I can't begin to calculate the odds of all that happening. I just know no NBA team had lost consecutive home playoff games after being up by 20 points in each game. Until now.

The Knicks are riding a lot of house money as they come home to what's going to be a raucous and crazy Madison Square Garden. But, know this, defending world champion Boston is and remains the superior team.

The Celtics certainly aren't going to lack incentive and focus. They shot 36.8 percent from 3-point range during the season, 10th-best in the league. Tatum made 45.2 percent of his shots during the season, not the 29 percent he's shooting during this series.

Boston had a better road record than a home mark going 33-8. The Celtics have a deeper bench, are healthy and have more star power.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith for Boston to show a strong positive regression in this Game 3.

Stung by the Nuggets stealing Game 1, the Thunder buried Denver, 149-106, in Game 2 of their series this past Wednesday. 
I'm going against the zig-zag theory here and backing the Thunder to soundly defeat Denver again. 

It's not a fluke that Oklahoma City was 18 games better than Denver during the regular season. The Thunder are deeper and superior defensively. Oklahoma City also is faster. The Thunder averaged 120.5 points a game. Denver, which relies on its offense, averaged two more points per game than Oklahoma City, but gave up 11 points more per game than the Thunder. 

Denver is heavily reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Thunder has the antidote for Murray in defensive whiz Lu Dort. Oklahoma City figured out the right strategy to bottle up Jokic in its 43-point Game 2 victory - swarming him while playing pressure defense the entire time without a letup. The Thunder have the youth and depth to do this. Oh, yes, the Thunder have their own legitimate league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Thunder have covered 22 of the last 30 times they've been favored. That's 73 percent. The Thunder are a level higher than Denver and they are proven point spread winners. A change of venue isn't going to change that except to lower the point spread making the bar easier for the Thunder to cover another game.

Certainly Golden State deserves a lot of credit for its upset of the Timberwolves in Game 1 of this series two days ago. But the Timberwolves sure came out rusty after a five-day layoff following their first-round series win against the Lakers. 

Now the Warriors are looking at a highly-motivated Timberwolves squad that doesn't want to be trailing 2-0 heading to Golden State if they were to lose this game. The Warriors also are temporarily looking at life without Stephen Curry. He's out with a hamstring injury. 

Minnesota shot 17 percent from 3-point range against the Warriors on Tuesday hitting on just 5-of-29 from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage during the regular season at 37.7 percent.

Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler showed Sunday that you can never fully count the Warriors out. But the Warriors aren't the better team against the Timberwolves and they are at a severe situational disadvantage.

Minnesota has arguably emerged as a top-five team during the past 5 1/2 months. Anthony Edwards gives the Timberwolves their own superstar.

Golden State had to dig deep - physically and mentally - to upset the Rockets on the road in Sunday's Game 7. The Warriors also got an unlikely 33 points from Buddy Hield, who made a staggering 9 of 11 3-point shots and missed only three of 15 field goal attempts.

People were ripping the Lakers for losing their first-round series to the Timberwolves. That outcome wasn't surprising, though. Minnesota is the superior team.

Now the Timberwolves are in a great spot having been idle since eliminating LA last Wednesday.

Situation matters when it comes to the NBA. And this one sets up great for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder last played nine days ago after sweeping the Grizzlies. Superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn't even play up to his lofty standards during the series yet Oklahoma City still won the series, 4-0.

Denver has gotten exactly one day of rest after getting past the Clippers in a grueling seven-game series that ended Saturday night.

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA at 72-14 counting the playoffs. They had the best point spread record during the regular season, too, at 55-23-4 for a phenomenal 71 percent. Oklahoma City is home and has a huge situational edge.

That spells a double-digit victory in my book.

Playoff savvy and one-time greatness can only get you so far. The Warriors have reached the end of the line. I don't see them beating the Rockets in Houston in this Game 7 playoff matchup.

Golden State went all in to eliminate the Rockets at home in Game 6 two days ago. The Warriors couldn't do it, done in by the Rockets' superior rebounding and their own exhaustion.

Houston is the quicker, taller, hungrier team and now they have confidence. The Rockets have won their last two home games against the Warriors by 15 points each.

The Warriors are running on fumes - ground down both physically and mentally. Stephen Curry is 37. Jimmy Butler is close to turning 36. Draymond Green is 35 and trying to battle Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, who are both 6-foot-11, with his 6-foot-6 frame.

Green is one of the dirtiest players in NBA history. He won't be getting away with anything in Houston. Curry and Butler are at less than 100 percent capacity.

Any momentum the Warriors had from earlier in the series has been lost.

The Warriors would very much like to close the Rockets out at home today leading 3-2 in this best-of-seven series rather than go to a seventh and deciding game, which would be in Houston on Sunday. 

But what the Warriors would like and can do are two different things. 

Yes, Golden State has far more playoff experience than Houston. The Warriors also have two proven superstars, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Rockets can't match the reliability of those two.

Houston, though, has edges the Warriors lack. The Rockets have more overall talent, are younger and the superior rebounding and defensive team. Houston has had a fourth quarter lead in each of its playoff losses to Golden State.

Golden State is ahead in the series because of its veteran savvy. The Rockets, however, have chipped away at that as this series has gone deeper. The Rockets have their confidence up after building a 29-point third quarter lead this past Wednesday in coasting to a 131-116 Game 5 victory. 
The Rockets picked up the pace and applied relentless defensive pressure. Those tactics worked. 

"It feels like we're getting more consistent recognition of what they're doing throughout the series as it goes on," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said following his team's Game 5 victory. "Trying to wear them down and taking away certain actions, and we did that. Try to make them make plays and not run their plays. If they have to beat us one-one, we feel that's to our advantage."

Houston has its confidence and blueprint. The Rockets aren't intimidated anymore being in the playoffs with the Warriors. They are a rising power. Maybe it's not their time quite yet, but I'll take this many points to find that out.

Forget the Nuggets' 131-115 Game 5 home win against the Clippers from two nights ago. Those 246 combined points were an outlier. The combined total of the other four games in the series during regulation is 200.7 points.

The Clippers are the fourth-ranked defensive team in the NBA and top-rated defensive rebounding team. They are going to come in with a maximum defensive effort after being embarrassed in that last game.

Denver has held the Clippers to an average of 100.6 points in regulation during three of the five games in the series.

The Under has cashed 60 percent the past 100 times during Game 6 and 7 NBA playoff games.

So expect plenty of hard-nosed playoff defense - not offense - in this one.

The Rockets' young talent is obvious. But playoff inexperience, Golden State's veteran savvy and missed free throws have resulted in the Rockets being down 3-1 in their first-round playoff series against Golden State.

Now the Warriors look to close out the series with a road victory today. I don't see them doing it. Not at Houston.

The Rockets' one win in this series came at home in blowout fashion, 109-94, in Game 2. Houston is 30-12 at home. 

The Warriors have proven superstars with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. But Golden State also has far more age. This is their third game in five days and Houston is desperate. The oddsmaker made the Rockets the favorite and I fully agree. 

This is what Curry had to say about this game, "You understand closeout games are extremely difficult because of desperation from the other side. Try to do it on the road is even more challenging." 
The Rockets have the talent to match Golden State with Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Houston has had fourth-quarter leads in its losses. The Rockets are the superior rebounding team. Their confidence and poise will be much better at home.

The Cavaliers have already advanced. The Knicks can do that, too, if they beat the underdog Pistons at home tonight. The Celtics would meet the Knicks in Round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs. So Boston can't waste any more time with Orlando in its first-round series.

The Magic managed to sneak a home win in Game 3 after soundly losing the first two games in Boston. The Magic gave it their best shot at home in Game 4 before surrendering 16 of the final 23 points in a 107-98 loss this past Sunday. That was a deflating loss for the Magic.

Orlando is a two-man team of Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic have tried to overcome their weak depth and lack of other scoring options by playing extremely physical. That's not going to work back in Boston.

The Celtics' stars are better than Orlando's stars and Boston's bench is far superior. Boston is 30-13 at TD Garden Center. The Celtics don't want to screw around anymore with the Magic. I look for the Celtics to be focused and to play with great intensity. That should ensure an easy double-digit victory.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Rockets to cover - if not beat the Warriors straight-up - in tonight's Game 4 matchup of their Western Conference playoff series. 

The Warriors pulled out a gutty home win without Butler this past Saturday. Golden State came back from a 13-point deficit. 

I don't believe the Warriors can do that again if Butler remains out due to a pelvic injury suffered in Game 2 this past Wednesday. But even if Butler plays, the Warriors may get caught subconsciously relaxing. 

The Rockets are a better defensive team than Golden State. They gave up the fifth-fewest points and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding. The Rockets were slow in rotating and didn't play with the defensive intensity during Saturday's loss that they did when they defeated the Warriors in Game 2. I see the Rockets taking their defense up a notch in this game.

Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff is the NBA Coach of the Year in my book. I trust Bickerstaff to make the right adjustments in this Game 4 of the Pistons-Knicks playoff series.

After splitting the first two games in New York, the Pistons lost Game 3 at home, 118-116, this past Thursday. Two big keys for the Knicks in their victory was Karl-Anthony Towns taking advantage of Detroit missing center Isaiah Stewart and OG Anunoby's defense on Cade Cunningham. Towns scored 31 points and Anunoby held Cunningham to 4-of-14 shooting from the floor.

Still, the Knicks only won by a basket. The Pistons shouldn't be so nervous starting the game. That was their first home playoff game since 2019. Detroit outscored New York by 11 points in the second half, but couldn't quite overcome a 66-53 halftime deficit.

Stewart may be able to play Sunday. But even if he doesn't, I'm confident in Bickerstaff to make adjustments to slow down Towns and to get Cunningham, an emerging superstar, better opportunities to score, or pass to an open teammate.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Warriors to prevail at home against the youthful Rockets. Houston is taking to the road after going 1-1 on its homecourt during the first two games of this Western Conference series. 

Golden State has the savvy and playoff experience to make the proper adjustments after the Rockets increased their defensive intensity to win Game 2, 109-94, this past Wednesday.

Butler suffered a bruised back in that game. He played less than eight minutes before he suffered the injury. I believe Butler will play here, although he's listed as questionable. If you don't count that Wednesday game, the Warriors are 24-7 since Butler joined them. 

Jonathan Kuminga got the rust off replacing Butler. Kuminga played 26 minutes after Butler left, making four-of-12 shots from the floor. Kuminga was the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer during the regular season averaging 15.3 points, but had sat out the previous two games.

After losing by 17 and nine points at Boston during the first two games of this series, I see Orlando bouncing back to at least get the cover - if not win outright - at home.

I'm not expecting a doubtful Jayson Tatum to play. Nor would I be surprised if Jaylen Brown sat out, too, or at least had reduced minutes because of a sore knee. There's also a chance the Celtics could be minus Jrue Holiday, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.

The Magic play the Celtics with much more confidence at home having defeated them in both of their regular-season home games.

Orlando came back from an 0-2 playoff deficit against the Cavaliers last year to win all three of its playoff home games.

Let me get this right. The first game of this series is decided in overtime with the Nuggets winning. The Clippers hold on in Game 2 withstanding two Denver missed 3-pointers in the final seconds to win by three points. 

Denver was favored in both of those games. But now that the scene shifts to LA the Clippers are this big of a favorite? Huh? Not buying it. These teams are extremely even. So give me the Nuggets in this point spread range.

Kawhi Leonard had one of his games for the ages this past Monday dropping 39 points on 15-of-19 shooting from the floor. Leonard is that good. But he's not the best player on the court. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is. Jokic is averaging 27.5 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds in the series. He's not the only Denver player having a big series. Jamal Murray is averaging 22 points, 6.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is averaging 19.5 points and seven rebounds. 

The Nuggets dominated the boards against the Clippers in Game 2, out-rebounding them by 18. The Nuggets, though, committed nine more turnovers and shot only 63.6 percent from the free throw line when their season average is 77 percent.

I had the Warriors to beat the Rockets in Game 1 - and felt lucky to win even though the final score was Golden State, 95-85. 

The Rockets grabbed 16 more offensive rebounds than the Warriors and had numerous missed open 3-point shots. 

The Rockets' youth showed in that first playoff game. Still, the Rockets could have cut the Warriors' lead to two points with less than five minutes left if Stephen Curry didn't hit a long 3-point desperation heave that took the pressure off by putting the Warriors ahead by seven points. 

Golden State shot 47.4 percent from the floor. The Rockets got off 11 more shots than the Warriors, but made only 39.1 percent of their field goal attempts. 

Expect an all-out effort by the Rockets knowing they can't go down 0-2 in the series at home. Their young, but highly-talented players, should be more comfortable and less rusty in Game 2. Houston also should make a much higher percentage of its offensive rebounds and open shots resulting from kick-outs. 

I see that happening.

The Bucks picked a bad time to get cold and play flat this past Saturday in a 117-98 Game 1 playoff loss to the Pacers.

Milwaukee was 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS this month before that game. But aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were terrible against Indiana.

Not only will the Bucks be highly motivated with their pride wounded, but there's a strong possibility they get back their second-best player, Damian Lillard. He's been out since March 18. Lillard is likely to be on a minutes count if he does play, but he should provide a needed spark after getting into a chippy exchange of words with some of the Pacers from Milwaukee's bench.

Antetokounmpo said this after the 19-point Game 1 defeat: "It wasn't us. I think we're gonna be better. In the second half we were better. They only scored 50 points in the second half. We were way better in the second half. Hopefully we can carry over to the next game and do what we do, guys feel more comfortable out there."

The Bucks led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 38.7 percent. Yet they shot only 24.3 percent from beyond the arc in Game 1 making just 9-of-37 shots. The Pacers rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage.

The Clippers committed a whopping 20 turnovers, seven by Kawhi Leonard, against the Nuggets in Game 1 on Saturday. That led to a 20-point edge by the Nuggets in points off turnovers.

Yet it took overtime for the Nuggets to defeat the Clippers, 112-110. 

Denver is not some great defensive team. The Nuggets ranked 25th in scoring defense. The Clippers, by contrast, ranked fourth defensively giving up an average of nine fewer points per game than the Nuggets. 

LA entered Saturday's Game 1 as the hottest team going 18-3 with an eight-game winning streak. The Clippers picked a bad time to go flat. Expect them to play much better, especially the prideful Leonard, in this Game 2 matchup. 

The Clippers have responded with wins and covers the past four times following a loss defeating the Magic by nine points on the road, the Knicks by 13 on the road, the Heat by 15 on the road and the Pistons by eight at home during this time span. 

The Nuggets do not have a good recent history when playing at home in Game 2 of a playoff series going 0-4 ATS the past four times in that instance the previous two seasons.

The Rockets were four games better than the Warriors during the regular season. Houston is the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Golden State is seventh-seeded.

Pay no attention to that, though.

It's misleading and doesn't mean anything now.

The Rockets have been idle for a week. They are rusty and lack Golden State's playoff experience having last made the postseason in 2020, the Covid year when the playoffs were held in the bubble in Orlando.

The Warriors played at a 61-win pace during their last 31 games going 23-8 transformed by a resurgent Jimmy Butler. They defeated the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in a play-in game to reach this point.

Houston coasted into the playoffs, losing its last three games by an average of 21 points. The Rockets are young lacking the proven stars the Warriors have with Stephen Curry, Butler and Draymond Green.

It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to reach full intensity having been idle since last Sunday and not caring during the last week of the regular season. The Warriors won't have that problem. They'll be ready.

This could be the most evenly matched first round series of all of them. I believe the Lakers are overrated here because of who they are and their star power of Luka Doncic and LeBron James.

Minnesota, however, is the taller and deeper team. The Timberwolves also went 17-4 in their last 21 games. The Lakers were 18-10 during their last 28 games with Doncic in the lineup. LA lost to the Hornets, Jazz, Nets and Bulls twice during that stretch.

Doncic's numbers haven't matched the great statistics he was putting up with the Mavericks. He and James look better on paper with just a plus two rating when both are on the court together.

Anthony Edwards actually could be the best offensive player on the court. The Lakers don't have any strong defensive wings to defend against Edwards either. If they load up on Edwards that frees up Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.

This is too many points for the Warriors to be giving up considering Memphis has a size advantage, JaMorant is playing his best basketball of the season and there is not a huge talent disparity between the two teams. 

The Grizzlies have displayed defensive improvement under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo ranking sixth in defensive efficiency during their last six games. Discounting a loss to the Timberwolves from this past Thursday, the Grizzlies have given up an average of 105 points during their last five games. 

Morant is averaging 30.2 points and shooting 41.3 percent from 3-point range this month. 

Memphis also has the size to hurt Golden State in the frontcourt with an improved Zach Edey joining elite defender Jaren Jackson Jr. The 7-foot-4 Edey is averaging 15.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks this month. 

The Grizzlies rank No. 2 in the NBA in drawing fouls. The Warriors rank 19th in that category.

It seemed to take forever. But we've reached the postseason in the NBA. That means the defensive concentration and intensity goes way up.

Stephen Curry and Ja Morant are the poster childs for this play-in game. Yet the game also features two of the premier defensive players of the league in Draymond Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also have been giving more minutes this month to 7-foot-4 rookie center Zach Edey. That's a plus for the Under.

The Grizzlies have surrendered an average of 105 points in their last five games if you don't include their game against the Timberwolves.

Golden State has a top-eight defense. The Warriors have held their last six opponents to an average of 102.6 points.

Not many NBA games today have much meaning with playoff seeding determined. This matchup is an exception. That should ensure a hard-fought, defensive-minded battle. Both the Clippers and Warriors are in excellent defensive form ranking in the top-three in defensive efficiency during the past eight games.

The previous three games in this series this season have averaged only 203.6 points.

Stephen Curry has a right thumb sprain and is questionable for the game.

This is the Trail Blazers' final road game and first matchup since finding out they were eliminated from the postseason. Portland showed much improvement, but I question its motivation for this now meaningless game.

Utah is dreadful. But the Jazz should have motivation to halt a nine-game losing streak. This is their best chance to stop their losing skid since they host the Thunder and play at Minnesota for their final two games.

Portland concludes its season with home games against the Warriors and Lakers. Those are matchups the Trail Blazers are likely to care more about.

The Jazz are 1-2 against Portland this season. Both of Utah's losses to Portland came by two points. The Jazz have outscored Portland by 38 points in their three games.

A far superior defense. Rest advantage. Playing at home. Much better current form. 

All of those reasons are why I like Orlando to cover this number against Atlanta.

Let's start with defense. The Magic give up the fewest points per game at 105.6. The Hawks, by contrast, rank 27th defensively allowing an average of 119.8 points per game.

Orlando has been idle since Thursday. The Magic are 6-2 in their past eight games. Their defense has been even better than its season number. The Magic have surrendered an average of only 99 points during their last six games. 

The Hawks are 2-5 in their past seven games. Atlanta has permitted more than 119 points in each of its last seven games. During their past seven games, the Hawks have allowed an average of 124.1 points.

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Behold the largest Eastern Conference point spread of the season. Sure the Celtics probably could name their score here at home against the Wizards, but I don't see them being very motivated. Boston also doesn't have a good track record in this point spread range, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times (28 percent) as double-digit favorites.  

The Celtics took their frustrations out on Phoenix after their nine-game win streak was halted by the Heat this past Wednesday. Boston buried the Suns, 123-103, in its following game this past Friday.

Boston knows it's locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference being eight games of the third-place Knicks, but trailing first-place Cleveland by five games with five regular season games left. The Celitcs travel to Madison Square Garden to meet the Knicks on Tuesday in their next game.

Only twice in their last 28 games, have the Wizards lost by more than 20 points. Washington has many young players. They'll want to show their best against the defending world champions.

Improved defense is one of the reasons why the Pistons are going to make the playoffs for the first-time since 2019. So is the emergence of Cade Cunningham into a superstar. Cunningham ranks eighth in the NBA in scoring with a 25.7 point average.

Cunningham, though, has missed the past five games with a calf injury. He's questionable here. Even if he plays, you wonder about him having a rust factor. Detroit has scored 103 and 104 points in its past two games.

Toronto probably will be without perhaps its top all-around offensive player as Scottie Barnes is doubtful with a right hand injury. The injury really hampered Barnes' shooting and performance in a 112-103 home loss to the Trail Blazers last night.

The Raptors have been below-the-radar defensively. If you discount them giving up 127 points to the Bulls two games ago, the Raptors have held their five opponents to an average of 101.6 points. Toronto ranks fourth in the NBA in 3-point defense.

The Timberwolves' dramatic, 140-139, last-second two overtime road victory against the Nuggets this past Tuesday night was one of the best games of the NBA season.

Denver followed up that game with an upset home loss to the Spurs last night, although Nikola Jokic sat out.

While I don't expect the Nets to beat Minnesota straight-up, I do believe this is an excellent ambush spot for Brooklyn to throw a scare into the Timberwolves, who have to be feeling great about themselves pulling out a win against the Nuggets. Minnesota defeated Denver when Russell Westbrook missed a layup near the end of the game and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was fouled with one-tenth of a second left. Alexander-Walker's two free throws accounted for Minnesota's final victory margin.

That win put the Timberwolves into a tie for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. You can't fault the Timberwolves if they suffer a letdown here facing the Nets, who are 26 games below .500.

Still, this is a second straight road game and a time change for the Timberwolves. The Nets are pesky. They actually have been quite good point spread-wise covering nine of their last 13 games. The Nets also are the more rested team having been idle since Monday.

When is enough, enough? The answer is right here in this game. The Timberwolves have defeated the Nuggets five straight times, including all three this season.

I don't see this as a matchup thing. The Nuggets should be finally aroused since the Timberwolves have been taking this series more seriously. Not now, though. Denver also is trying to hold off the Lakers for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Denver should be healthy with Jamal Murray expected to play. The Nuggets are well rested. They last played this past Friday at home, blowing out the Jazz.

Minnesota, however, is in action for the third time in five days. The Timberwolves are off a near-brawl against the Pistons this past Sunday. This is only the Timberwolves' second road game since March 14. They were blown out by the Pacers in their previous road game eight days ago.

This is one of those rare, if any, times I'm going against Oklahoma City being fully aware the Thunder are riding a nine-game win streak and have the best point spread mark in the NBA. 

Actually, it's not so much I'm going against the Thunder, but rather taking value on the Bulls, who are below-the-surface. 

Chicago is 9-3 in its last dozen games, 10-2 ATS. If it weren't for a one-point loss to the Mavericks, the Bulls would be on a five-game win streak. 

This is a good test for the Bulls to find out just how competitive they are. I'll back them, given how well they have been playing, at what I see is an inflated point spread.

Reportedly the Grizzlies surprisingly fired coach Taylor Jenkins because he had lost the locker room. Regardless, I expect the Grizzlies to be highly-motivated at home in their first game since naming Tuomas Iisalo as their interim coach. 

The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode and draw the Lakers playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and in their fourth straight road contest. 

Memphis 25-11 (69 percent) at home this season. The Lakers are four games below .500 when playing on the road. 

Ja Morant has missed the past six games due to a hamstring injury. He's questionable here. I like the Grizzlies to beat the Lakers regardless if Morant plays. If he does suit up, it's just a bonus.

The Heat have been a disappointment this season, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Eric Spoelstra is a top defensive coach. The Heat have slowed their pace since dealing disgruntled Jimmy Butler and are playing their best defense of the season.

The Heat just held the Warriors to 86 points two days ago. Miami is giving up only 97.6 points during its past three games. Star defensive player Bam Adebayo helped guard Butler during that win against the Warriors. Butler managed just 11 points in the game. This doesn't bode well for the Hawks' main man, Trae Young.

Atlanta has its own defensive ace in Dyson Daniels, who leads the NBA in steals. The Hawks are more about offense than defense, but they don't figure to push tempo playing for the fourth time in six days.

The Lakers are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. Indiana has won five in a row and is at home. Yet it's the Lakers who opened the favorite.

The oddsmaker has it right here.

The Lakers opened their current road trip with a 118-106 loss to the Magic two days ago. The positive for the Lakers was that both Luka Doncic and LeBron James played and looked good. The Lakers need to win this game. I trust Doncic and James to help them achieve that win as they try to cling to a top four-seed in the Western Conference.

The Pacers' win streak is bogus except for their last game, which was a 119-103 home win against Minnesota this past Monday. The Pacers began their victory streak with an overtime road win against the Timberwolves. That was followed by only a four-point home win against the decimated Mavericks and a pair of home wins and non-covers against the Nets with one occurring in overtime. The Nets are 3-15 in their last 18 games.

It has been a brutal March for the Heat. They are 2-11 this month. Their only victories were against the horrendous Wizards and Hornets.

Golden State has won 16 of 20 games since acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Heat. The Warriors should be highly motivated to win big here coming off an upset loss to the Hawks three days ago and knowing how important this game is for Butler playing against his former team.

The Warriors have won by an average of 14.2 points the past four times following a loss.

It's an added bonus if Stephen Curry plays. He's questionable due to a bruised pelvic.

Washington is 15-55 after losing by 19 points to the Knicks on the road this past Saturday. 

Yet Washington opened as the favorite because Toronto is 24-47 and looked terrible in losing, 123-89, to the Spurs on Sunday. The Raptors were playing at home for the first time since returning from a four-game West Coast trip. 

"...We have to be much better, and I expect us to be much better tomorrow (Monday)," Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said following his team's no-show against the Spurs.

The Raptors are better than Washington and should be motivated. Only the Thunder and Cavaliers have a better point spread record than the Raptors, who are 42-28-1 for 60 percent.

Congrats to the Spurs for winning consecutive home games against the Knicks this past Wednesday and against the depleted 76ers two days ago. I don't see the Spurs having their full intensity as they take to the road for only the second time in two weeks to face Toronto. 

The Raptors have lost three more games than San Antonio, but have a far better point spread record. Toronto, in fact, is tied with the Cavaliers behind Oklahoma City for the second-best ATS mark at 42-27-1. 

The Spurs have failed to cover in eight of their last nine away contests. This marks San Antonio's sixth game in 10 days. Remember, too, the Spurs are minus their two best players - Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox.

Toronto concluded a 1-3, four-game West Coast trip with a narrow, 117-114, loss to the hot Warriors. That was this past Thursday. So the Raptors have been idle the past two full days. They are well-coached, healthier than San Antonio and have good, young chemistry. They should be up for this very winnable home game. The Raptors also have covered five of their last six home games. 

I'm going to lay short juice and play the Raptors on the money line asking them to merely beat the Spurs at home.

Playing at Utah isn't easy even when there is motivation. As bad as the 16-54 Jazz are, they are tough at home covering 10 of their last 15 games as hosts.

The teams just met 11 days ago and Boston only won by six points at home. The Jazz were playing without rest, too, having played the night before.  

Boston has an extremely deep roster. The Celtics are still strong even when resting star players, which could be the case here with the team's upcoming schedule of playing the Trail Blazers in Portland on Sunday and Kings in Sacramento on Monday.

So the backdoor could swing open for the Jazz if Boston does build an early huge advantage. Realistically, the Celtics are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. That might be why Boston has only won by this large of a margin once in its last 11 games.

The Lakers are very tough at home and on a three-game winning streak. But this is a tough spot for LA. The oddsmaker knows this, making Milwaukee a road favorite.

The Bucks won't lack motivation after a flat, 104-93, road loss to the Stephen Curry-less Warriors two days ago. The Bucks had won 10 of 15 before that defeat. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a rare poor performance.

The Lakers are not only fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, 120-108, last night at home, but carry a huge fatigue rating as this marks LA's sixth game in eight days.

LA is short-handed, too, with LeBron James out and Rui Hachimura questionable with a knee injury.

The teams just met a week ago and the Bucks sailed past the Lakers, 126-106, at home when the Lakers didn't have James.

The Bulls are a pesky team that usually can be counted on for a good effort. They are flying behind the point spread radar covering 11 of their last 14 games, including going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Chicago is a dangerous opponent for the Kings in this spot. Sacramento is fat and happy having opened its homestand with victories against the Grizzlies on Monday and Cavaliers last night in an impressive, 123-119, win.

The Kings took down the mighty Cavaliers despite being without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Jake LaRavia. Sabonis remains out, while the other two are questionable.

Given the situation and the Bulls being acclimated to West Coast time after a 127-121 road loss to the Suns last night, I trust Chicago to keep this one tight.

Cleveland is in danger of losing three in a row for just the second time all season. I don't see that happening here, though.

Following a 16-game win streak, the Cavaliers were upset at home by the Magic and then embarrassed by the Clippers, 132-119, on the road last night. LA made 54.8 percent of its field goal attempts against Cleveland.

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson called out his team following that poor defensive performance citing lack of discipline.

So I'm banking on a strong, motivated effort from the Cavaliers.

The Kings have won 22 fewer games than Cleveland. The Cavaliers are an elite team. Sacramento is a borderline playoff team that had dropped four in a row before defeating the Grizzlies, 132-122, at home two days ago. That victory was costly as the Kings lost their best rebounder and defender, Domantas Sabonis, to an ankle injury.

Cleveland has the No. 2 scoring offense in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank first in 3-point accuracy. The Kings rank last in 3-point defense and now won't have Sabonis.

These are two of the most banged-up teams in the NBA. The 76ers have been without their three best players - Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. The Mavericks have been hit so hard by injuries they have trouble meeting the NBA requirement for players.

All of this has left both team's offenses in shambles. During the last eight games, both Philadelphia and Dallas rank among the bottom-six in offensive efficiency.

This is an early Sunday start time, too, which is a plus for the Under.

The Pelicans are one of those non-playoff teams that is below-the-radar and dangerous at home. New Orleans is in an excellent spot to ambush the fat-and-happy Clippers here.

The Clippers take to the road for the first time in a week after going 3-0 during their homestand with satisfying victories against the Pistons, Knicks and Kings in overtime this past Sunday.

But now the Clippers hit the road where they have failed to cover the past 10 times! LA's only victories during its last 10 away games were against the Bulls, Jazz in overtime and Hornets. The combined record of those three teams is 58-136. 

New Orleans is 7-3-1 ATS in its past 11 home games. The Pelicans nearly upset the Grizzlies at home two days ago as double-digit 'dogs. They lost,107-104, after two potential game-tying 3-pointers missed during their final possession. The Pelicans kept it that close despite resting both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, their first and third-leading scorers.

The Pacers have matched up well to the Bulls this season as evidenced by a 3-0 record with an average victory margin of 13.3 points. I like the Pacers to get a season-sweep on Chicago.

Indiana is in a foul mood after a pair of close road losses to the Hawks, while the Bulls return to Chicago fat and pleased after going 2-0 on its Florida road trip with victories against the Heat and Magic. The Bulls came from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to defeat the Heat this past Saturday. 

The Pacers have Bennedict Mathurin, their third-leading scorer, back after a four game absence. It's a nice bonus if Tyrese Haliburton can return from a hip flexor after missing the two Hawks losses. 

The Bulls have their own injury woes with Patrick Williams and Lonzo Ball out.

When properly motivated, the Celtics can beat any team. But unmotivated, banged-up and with a look-ahead nationally televised home marquee matchup against Oklahoma City looming, the Celtics are a fade in this spot. 

It's simply too many points for Boston to be laying.

Utah is terrible and unpopular with the public. That combination gives the Jazz some extra value. The Jazz have covered eight of their last 14 games and should get big man, Walker Kessler, back after he was rested in Sunday's road loss to the 76ers. 

Boston may choose to sit out Jayson Tatum and Al Horford, both of whom are listed as questionable. Kristaps Porzingis isn't expected to play either for Boston. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times when laying double-digits. They host the Thunder on Wednesday. That's the game they are keying on. 

Jazz coach Will Hardy doesn't want to get embarrassed in this matchup. He was a well-respected assistant coach for the Celtics before taking the Jazz's head coaching job.

I don't expect Zion Williamson to see action in this game since he played in the Pelicans', 146-117, embarrassing road loss to the Rockets last night. Williamson hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from a hamstring injury in early January. 

Still, I like the Pelicans getting this many points. 

New Orleans plays much better at home. The Pelicans are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games in New Orleans. They're much improved on the boards, which was a real weakness.

Mainly, though, my handicap is a fade on Memphis.

The Grizzlies aren't playing well enough to lay this many points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Memphis gave up 94 points through three quarters to the short-handed Mavericks before winning, 122-111, this past Friday. That has been the Grizzlies' lone cover during their past 10 games. 

Memphis continues to be without its best big man, injured Jaren Jackson Jr. He won't play today because of an ankle injury. The Pelicans have upgraded their rebounding enough to take advantage.

Golden State is drawing attention now, making its move winning eight of its past nine games.

The Pistons don't get much publicity. Yet they quietly are 10-2 in their last dozen games. Detroit's only losses during this span were to the Nuggets and to the Clippers this past Wednesday, 123-115. James Harden shot 20 free throws to Cade Cunningham's six free throws in that game. That didn't seem fair to Detroit coach JB Bickerstaff.

Bickerstaff has done a tremendous job this season. Given extra prep time, I'm confident he'll have the Pistons in a position to ambush the Warriors, who last played at home on Feb. 25.

Golden State just finished its fifth straight road game, escaping the Nets, 121-119, this past Thursday. This will be the Warriors' fourth game in six days. So not only do the Warriors carry a high fatigue rating, but also their concentration level may be down having been away from home for so long.

Note, too, the Warriors' schedule. They have met only one above .500 team during their last seven games, playing the Hornets twice during this stretch. Bickerstaff has the Pistons at 35-28. That happens to be the same record the Warriors have.

This may look like an easy game for the Kings on paper, but it's not given the spot and Sacramento's injury situation. 

The Kings just concluded a four-game, eight-day road trip with a tough loss to the Nuggets two days ago. Sacramento had won the first three games of its road swing and led the Nuggets by nine points going into the fourth quarter, but ran out of gas and lost by six. 

The Sacramento players barely have time to get acclimated to being back home before they go back on the highway for a bigger game against the Clippers on Sunday. So there could be a concentration and focus problem for the Kings, especially given the low bar of their opponent. 

The Kings, though, would be challenged to cover a mid-range number without playing well even if they were healthy. But they aren't. Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk are both out. Those injuries more than offset the Spurs being without Victor Wembanyama. Sabonis is Sacramento's top rebounder, defender and shot-blocker. Monk averages 17.6 points a game and is second on the team in assists. 

San Antonio has an added day of rest after a 14-point home victory against the Nets this past Tuesday. This is a bigger than normal game for the Spurs because De'Aaron Fox is playing against his former team. That should provide extra motivation for the Spurs.

Much is made of Joel Embiid being out for the rest of the season. Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers' leading scorer, is questionable, too. 

But if you think the 76ers' injury situation is bad, look at Boston's. The Celtics defeated a hot Trail Blazers team, 128-118, last night despite missing starters Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. Then Sam Hauser, who started in Holiday's place, suffered an ankle injury putting his status in jeopardy for tonight. The Celtics won't have Holiday and Porzingis again. Also out are Jalen Brown and Al Horford. Tatum is questionable. 

The Celtics still beat the Trail Blazers by double-digits because Payton Pritchard and Derrick White combined to score 84 points while making 19 3-pointers. I certainly don't see that occurring anytime soon. 

The 76ers should have Paul George available. It's a plus if Maxey is able to play. The Celtics have no reason to rush any of their injured players back into the lineup for tonight's game having already clinched a postseason berth. 

Boston has a bigger game on tap hosting the revamped Lakers in a nationally televised matchup on Saturday. The Celtics are fat and happy now and also in a look-ahead spot.

The 76ers should be the more motivated team in this long-standing rivalry. Philadelphia did upset the Warriors three games ago not having Embiid.  
The Celtics have lost and failed to cover the past times they've played without rest. Boston also is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when laying double-digits.

The Pacers are in a good position to beat the road Rockets by a decisive margin here. Indiana is off an easy 15-point home victory against the Bulls this past Sunday. Houston had to play last night and lost, 137-128, to the Thunder at Oklahoma City.

Now the Rockets have to play in this back-to-back spot while perhaps missing six rotation players, including point guard Fred VanVleet and All-Star center Alperen Sengun. Those were two of six Houston players who didn't play against the Thunder because of injuries. This also marks Houston's third game in four days.

The Pacers have the offense to take advantage. They are averaging more than 119 points a game since January while ranking No. 4 in field goal percentage. Indiana has excellent scoring depth with eight players averaging at least nine points a game.

Indiana has added motivation after the Rockets buried them, 130-113, in Houston earlier this season.

I think there's inflation on this high of a total based on Oklahoma City's last game. That was a wild, 146-132, road win against the Spurs last night. 

The Thunder's defense has slipped noticeably since All-Star break ranking 22nd. Overall, the Thunder still rank either first or second in a number of major defensive categories, including scoring defense, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. 

Houston has a below average offense. The Rockets rank 18th in scoring, 26th in field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point shooting. The Rockets won't have their assists leader and third-leading scorer as Fred VanVleet is ruled out after tweaking his ankle injury in the Rockets', 113-103, loss to the Kings two days ago. 

The Thunder aren't going to look to push pace after last night's wild game. They won't lack defensive motivation either after surrendering a season-high in points to the Spurs last night and they don't have to face VanVleet. 

The Rockets are a top-five defensive club. They are in sharp defensive form holding their past three opponents - Kings, Spurs and Bucks - to an average of 105.3 points. Houston catches a break, too, in that Oklahoma City's third-leading scorer, Chet Holmgren, is likely to miss this game due to an ankle sprain that caused him to sit out last night's game. 

The Rockets have multiple injuries besides VanVleet with five other rotation players listed as questionable. Rockets coach Ime Udoka expressed his frustration with his team's lack of defense against the Kings. So from Houston I'm expecting a conservative game plan with a fierce defensive intensity.

Even if Anthony Edwards can't go because of calf soreness, I like the Timberwolves in this spot after they suffered an upset loss to the lowly Jazz. Minnesota is expecting to get back Julius Randle for this game.

The other part of my handicap is to fade Phoenix. The Suns went 3-10 last month. All three of those victories were achieved against lottery-bound teams. The Suns got revenge against the Pelicans in their last game. The Suns, however, are an NBA-worst 5-21-1 ATS following a victory.

This is an excellent gauge to determine just how much the Trail Blazers have improved. They are riding a four-game win streak and have drawn to within four games of qualifying for a play-in tournament spot.

The Cavaliers are in letdown mode after coming from 18 points down to defeat the Celtics in Boston two days ago. It was one of the Cavaliers' most satisfying victories of the season.

So the situation, Portland's improvement and getting this many points puts me on the underdog.

Maybe the Celtics thought it was going to be too easy when they opened a 25-3 lead at home against the Cavaliers this past Friday night. Cleveland came back to beat Boston, 123-116. 

That doesn't sit well with the Celtics, who have now lost two in a row. They haven't lost three straight games all season. I trust the Celtics to keep that streak intact with a well-played game against the Nuggets, who are at the tail end of a four-game road trip. 

Boston didn't have Kristpas Porzingis and Jrue Holiday against the Cavaliers. Both are questionable. Aaron Gordon didn't play in Denver's last game, which was an impressive, 134-119, win against the Pistons this past Friday that halted Detroit's eight-game win streak. Gordon is questionable with an ankle injury. 

I like Boston to win even if Porzingis and Holiday remain out in this nationally televised matchup. 

Denver ranks 23rd defensively. The Nuggets are giving up an average of 118.8 points during their last seven games, which is nearly three points it's below-average season average. The Celtics rank No. 3 defensively. The Celtics give up nearly eight fewer points per game than the Nuggets.

It doesn't get worse in the NBA than a matchup of Washington versus Charlotte. These two team's combined record is 24-92. Often when it's bad on bad, I like to go with the underdog. It certainly makes sense in this matchup to back the underdog Wizards.

This is Charlotte's first home game since Feb. 7. The Hornets concluded a disastrous 1-8 road trip with a 103-96 loss to the Mavericks this past Thursday. Before that defeat, the Hornets had lost their previous three games by a staggering average of 43.6 points! 

Not only will the Hornets be in the distracting position of getting adjusted to being back home, but they have less prep time than Washington.
The Wizards have been idle since this past Wednesday. 

The team's have met three times this season. Washington is 3-0 in those games. The Wizards defeated the Hornets by 10 points at Charlotte Feb. 3. They also beat the Hornets twice at home by an average of six points.

The Cavaliers have the best record in the NBA. They are 6 1/2 games ahead of the Celtics. But I'm of the opinion the defending champions can win when they are fully motivated.

Certainly the Celtics won't lack motivation for this game, especially after their six-game win streak was snapped by the Pistons this past Wednesday when Boston obviously was caught looking ahead to this marquee matchup.

Cleveland is 48-10, but two of its losses came to Boston. The most recent game between these two teams came on Feb. 4. The Celtics beat the Cavaliers, 112-105, on the road in that game.

The Celtics are 15-1 (94 percent) following a loss.

The Cavaliers have been without their second-best player, Darius Garland, for the past week. He's dealing with a left hip contusion. Garland is averaging 21.3 points, second-best on the team, and leads in Cleveland in assists averaging 6.7.

I can't trust the Magic on the side, especially since they remain without underrated Jalen Suggs. But I do believe the Magic will play intense defense here. Golden State is more defense than offense so I'm going Under.

Orlando just suffered its worst defeat of the season, a 40-point loss to the Cavaliers two days ago, 122-82, at home. This is what Magic coach Jamahl Mosely said following that loss: "...we understand exactly what we need to do, getting back to the basics, back to the fundamentals, a simple, physical, aggressive style of Orlando Magic basketball that we need to play."  

The Magic give up the fewest points per game in the NBA. The Warriors are eighth defensively and 17th in scoring. Golden State ranks fourth defensively if you go by post All-Star break. 

Golden State also is going from playing the pathetic Hornets, who it whipped, 128-92, two days ago to being on the road against the No. 1 defensive team and what should be a fired-up opponent. 

The Warriors are without their third-leading scorer, Jonathan Kuminga. Suggs is Orlando's third-leading scorer. Orlando also could be missing point guard Cole Anthony, who suffered a knee injury against the Cavaliers. Anthony is Orlando's fifth leading scorer. 

The teams met earlier this month and the Warriors won, 104-99, despite Stephen Curry missing 14 of 21 shots and making only 2-of-12 from 3-point range.

The two teams just met two days ago and the Pelicans won, 114-96. The Pelicans pulled away with a huge fourth quarter outscoring the Spurs, 39-17. It was the second-fewest points the Pelicans have given up all season.

The major key in New Orleans rolling past San Antonio was its ability to take advantage on the boards with the Spurs minus their superstar second-year player Victor Wembanyama.

The Pelicans outrebounded the short-handed Spurs by 23 rebounds. They also dominated the Spurs in the paint outscoring them, 58-34.

I don't see anything changing in this short turnaround.

Portland's defense has been sailing below the radar minus a couple of games against the Nuggets. Utah matches up well to Portland's style of offense. The result should be an Under here.

The Trail Blazers have the second-best defensive ranking in the league during the last 16 games. It's fueled them to a 16-5 record during this span. If you discount the Trail Blazers' two games against Denver, they are giving up an average of 101 points during their last eight games. Utah's offense ranks in the bottom-12 in points, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. 

The Jazz concentrate their defense on preventing short shots. They rank third in the NBA in limiting opponents to shot attempts within four feet of the hoop. Portland is a bottom-five scoring team. The Trail Blazers do have the second-highest frequency of shots within four feet of the basket. But Utah's strength is stopping those types of short shots. 

Neither team has any star power either.

This may be the first time I've included NBA journeyman center Kelly Olynyk in a write-up, let alone the lead. But Olynyk is a large part of the handicap, along with fellow 6-foot-11 inch center Yves Missi, as to why I like the Pelicans to beat the Spurs.

Subtract Victor Wembanyama from San Antonio and the Spurs are back to their lottery ways. Minus Wembanyama against the Pistons this past Friday, the Spurs were outrebounded, 53-32, while giving up 20 offensive rebounds and 21 second-chance points in a 125-110 loss to Detroit playing a home game in Austin, Texas. 

Now the Spurs have to travel to New Orleans. The Pelicans will have the best player on the floor, Zion Williamson, and they've beefed up their rebounding by acquiring Olynyk. The Pelicans played their first game with Olynyk two days ago. They lost to the Mavericks on the road. New Orleans, though, had a plus 11 ratio during Olynyk's 23:30 minutes. There are intangibles Olynyk provides that don't show up in the box score such as stretching the floor for his teammates and providing a degree of maturity and professionalism. 

Given the Pelicans' improved rebounding and home-court advantage, I don't see the Wembanyama-less Spurs winning.

Detroit is playing its finest basketball of the season winning 19 of its last 28 games. The Pistons have stepped up their defense in achieving this hot streak as during this span they rank among the five-best defensive teams in the league. Detroit has held its past four foes to an average of 103.5 points.

The Hawks are far more about offense than defense. Yet if you discount their 148-147 overtime road loss to the Knicks two games ago, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 110 points. That's more than nine points below their season defensive average. 

Atlanta is going through a transition period breaking in multiple new players acquired at the trade deadline. This is the Hawks' second game back from All-Streak break. They were held to 108 points by Orlando in a 114-108 loss this past Thursday. The Hawks shot just 39 percent from the floor during the defeat.

Right now the 76ers are an auto-fade, especially as home chalk. Philadelphia is 1-8 in its last nine games and has failed to cover its past seven games. As a home favorite, the 76ers are only 1-11 ATS.

The Nets, by contrast, are 17-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.

The perception is the 76ers are much superior to the Nets. Yet each team is 20-35 on the season. The 76ers finally have gotten their key players healthy, but haven't gained any traction.

Just two games ago, the Nets beat the 76ers, 100-96, at home.

Brooklyn has won and covered six of its past eight games. The Nets have been playing inspired defense giving up fewer than 99 points in six of their last eight games.

Memphis hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Orlando hasn't won three straight since Dec. 1. 

I don't see these trends changing here. Memphis is the far superior team and isn't going to lack motivation after a 127-113 road loss to the Pacers on Thursday night. A big takeaway from that game is the Grizzlies finally are fully healthy. 

Orlando also played last night, beating the Hawks at home, 114-108. The Magic still don't have Jalen Suggs back in their lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with a bruised thigh. Suggs is the Magic's third-leading scorer and an excellent defensive player. 

Memphis is 36-19. Orlando is below .500. The Magic have lost 14 of their past 21 games.

The Grizzlies average 19 more points per game than the Magic and rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.

The point spread is more than reasonable to back the Grizzlies.

Friday Free Play

Pistons minus 4 at Spurs

Often a team suffers a letdown in their second game after losing a superstar following winning initially. I believe that's going to be the case with the Spurs in their game tonight against the Pistons.

San Antonio gave an inspired, gutty performance in upsetting the Suns on Thursday after learning Victor Wembanyama would be out for the rest of the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. All Wembanyama was doing was averaging 24.3  points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists while leading the league in blocked shots with 3.8 per game. Keep in mind, too, that Charles Bassey, who is Wembanyama's backup, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Also please note that the Spurs defeated Phoenix in Austin not San Antonio. The game tonight also will be in Austin.

It takes two, though, to make the right handicap. The key question is have the Pistons improved enough this season to justify laying mid-range points with them on the road?

I'm going to say yes. The Pistons enter this matchup with a season-best four-game win streak. Their 29-26 record at this point of the season is their best mark in seven years. Only six teams have had a better record than the Pistons since Dec. 21. Detroit is 18-9 during its past 27 games, registering the fifth-best defensive rating and nine-best offensive ranking during this time span.

San Antonio, by comparison, is 24-29 and has lost 13 of its last 19 games.

The wild-card is Detroit last played nine days ago. The Pistons went into All-Star break riding a lot of confidence and optimism. I have to trust that J.B. Bickerstaff will have the Pistons ready to play to keep their momentum going.

Perhaps this high of a total is justified given the offensive nature of these two teams. But not coming off an eight-day All-Star break and given their current scoring form.

Memphis is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. However, the Grizzlies are averaging 115 points during their last three games, which is eight points below their season average. The Pacers are below average defensively, but their defensive statistics are not dreadful.

The Grizzlies are an underrated defensive team. They rank third in defensive field goal percentage and sixth in 3-point defense. The Pacers are averaging 110.4  points in their last five games if you discount their last game before the break, when they scored 134 points against the Wizards in a game that went to overtime.

You also have to factor in rust considering these teams haven't played in more than a week.

Kudos to the shorthanded Mavericks for upsetting the Warriors at home last night. Dallas pulled out a straight-up win despite missing key frontcourt players Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.

Dallas has only one player taller than 6-foot-8 available for this game as those players all remain out.

Miami wants to stop-the-pain before going into All-Star break. The Heat have lost three in a row with the last two occurring to the Thunder and Celtics. This is a big drop in class for the Heat, who have moved on from Jimmy Butler.

A decimated front-court, no Luka Doncic and a disgruntled, hostile fan base puts me on the Warriors. Golden State is coming on since acquiring Jimmy Butler burying the Bucks and and Bulls in their last two games.

This more a fade on the Mavericks, though. Dallas wanted to load up in the frontcourt and beat teams dominating the paint after dealing Doncic for Anthony Davis. Unfortunately for the Mavericks they have a cluster injury situation with their big men.

Center Daniel Gafford is the latest Dallas casualty after suffering a sprained knee in an overtime loss to the Kings this past Monday. He joins other injured Dallas players Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington and Caleb Martin.

The Mavericks are generating no sympathy from their fans, who hate them now for trading Doncic. Dallas probably is better off being on the road than playing at home during this time.

A rejuvenated Butler has made the Warriors relevant again. It's not a fluke the Warriors had a season-16 steals against the Bucks in their last game, a 125-111 win, and that Curry is averaging seven 3-pointers during the past two games.

Orlando doesn't have enough offense to lay this big of a number and get away with it. That's been proven the past 10 times. Orlando is 1-9 ATS when laying three or more points.

Aside from Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic lack the offensive talent and have too many key injuries to cover large point spreads. 

The Magic rank last in scoring averaging 104.1 points a game. They also are the worst 3-point shooting team. Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in four of its last seven games. More than one-third of the Magic's victories have been by fewer than six points.

I get that Charlotte is terrible. But the Hornets have a winning point spread record during their last 14 road games. They are 5-1 ATS during their past six games. Only twice in their last 19 games have the Hornets lost by more than 10 points.

There is only one team better than the Thunder in the Western Conference and it's not the Suns. Memphis is 35-17, the No. 2 team in the West and nine games better than Phoenix.

I want the Grizzlies after they lost, 125-112, at home to Oklahoma City this past Saturday. That was only Memphis' second loss in its last 12 games. The Grizzlies are 13-3 this season when playing following a defeat for 81 percent.

Phoenix has lost and failed to cover in four of its five games this month. The Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back, but won't have Bradley Beal for a third straight game due to a toe injury.

The Suns had Durant and still lost at home to the Grizzlies, 117-112, when they last met on Dec. 31.

We know Giannis Antetokounmpo is out with a calf injury. There's a chance Stephen Curry is held out, too, because of left quad soreness. But even if Curry plays, I like this total to go Under.

The Warriors are in transition with Jimmy Butler in and Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson out. Golden State has a top-10 defense and the Bucks probably aren't going to push a fast pace after an up-and-down, 135-127, victory against the 76ers on Sunday.

The last time the Bucks played without rest was a week ago. They managed only 96 points against the Thunder although they held out their top players.

Golden State's strength is its 3-point shooting. The Bucks rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point defense.

Maybe it's because they are bored. The Celitcs are just 20-13 in their last 33 games after opening 16-3. But I don't see Boston being bored for this national TV matchup at Madison Square Garden. If the Knicks beat the Celtics, they would creep within one-half game of ousting Boston for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics got caught looking ahead to this matchup. They were beaten at home by the Mavericks, 127-120, this past Thursday. Boston had won four in a row prior to that, including upsetting the Cavaliers on the road the game before.

The Knicks have been idle since Tuesday. Rest is good. That's too long of a layoff for the Knicks, though. New York remains without underrated OG Anunoby, who has an ankle injury. That's a very key player out of the lineup.

Boston actually has played better on the road going 20-6 compared to 16-10 at home. I trust the Celtics in games they really want to win. This is one of those instances.

Even though the Raptors won't have Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett while the Thunder gets back Chet Holmgren, I find this point spread too inflated given the situation and Toronto's skill level.

The Raptors have come on to win eight of their last 12 games. They have covered 58 percent of their games this season.

It's easy to see why the oddsmaker is so strong on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3-0 on their homestand with blowout victories against the Kings, Bucks and Suns. Holmgren returns for the first time since suffering a pelvic fracture nearly three months ago.

Toronto just suffered its worst loss of the season, 138-107, to the Grizzlies two days ago.

So the Raptors should have motivation after that embarrassing defeat. They also have revenge. Holmgren figures to be rusty, too, after being out for so long.

But the biggest factor in Toronto's favor is the situation. Not only are the Thunder fat and happy, but they have a much bigger game tomorrow night on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis has the second best record in the West behind Oklahoma City.

So the backdoor could swing wide open if the Raptors need it during the final few minutes when the Thunder surely would be resting starters if holding a big lead.

The Bucks and Hornets have met twice this season. The Hornets won, 115-114, at home for a total of 229 points during the first meeting in mid-November. The Bucks got revenge, 125-119, at home for a total of 244 points a week later.

Now the teams are meeting for a third time and the total opened lower than the closing line of the first two matchups.

Perhaps the oddsmaker was influenced by Milwaukee scoring only 96 points against the Thunder in its last game two days ago. The Thunder is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. The Bucks also rested all of their best players in what was a give-up spot.

The Hornets surrender eight more points per game than Oklahoma City and the Bucks should have most, if not all, of their key players back on the court. Even if they don't, I still like the Over believing this total is too short.

The Bucks are a top-12 scoring team. They rank No. 2 in 3-point shooting. Milwaukee was averaging 122.1 in its last 10 games before their matchup against the Thunder.

Charlotte just surrendered 124 points to the Wizards in a 10-point loss last night. The Bucks rank 15th defensively permitting an average of 112.8 points a game. That average shoots up to 131.5 points if you go by Milwaukee's last four games.