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Stephen Nover NBA Picks
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216 | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
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I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen. |
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| 10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 41 m | Show |
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By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again. |
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| 10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
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We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all.
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| 10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 104-115 | Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
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The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has.
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| 09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
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Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. |
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| 09-26-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
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Twice the Nuggets have dug themselves out of a 3-1 playoff series hole beating the Clippers and Jazz. No NBA team had ever done that twice during the same postseason. Denver is gutty and resilient. The Nuggets may be out of gas, too. This will be Denver's 19th playoff game. No team has played that many this season. I'm not going to go against the Nuggets here. They've earned too much respect. But if the Lakers don't get them, fatigue might. So I believe the right choice is Under the total. The Nuggets play to the second-lowest pace of any of the original 16 playoff teams. That's not going to change here. Denver knows it has to keep the Lakers out of transition in order to limit fast break points, which is an edge LA has on the Nuggets. Look for the Nuggets to play slow and deliberate. The Lakers aren't a helter skelter team either. They ranked ninth of the 16 playoff teams in tempo. Denver doesn't have a big scoring bench. The Nuggets heavily rely on emerging star Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for their offense. The Lakers, however, finally may have found the right solution to slowing down Murray - having LeBron James guard him. This was the case during the fourth quarter of the last game. The Nuggets didn't score on eight of 10 fourth quarter possessions when James was on Murray. During this span, Murray was 0-for-3 from the field. Murray, who is averaging nearly 40 minutes per game during the playoffs, clearly was bothered by James' physical style of defense. It's a double-edged sword, though, for the Lakers because it also tires out James to play such strong defense on Murray. James has to sacrifice some of his prolific offense to make this defense sacrifice. All of this is great for the Under. As for Jokic, the Lakers have several big bodies and fouls to deal with him. So he's not going to get any easy baskets. |
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| 09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
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The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break. |
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| 09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
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If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential. |
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| 09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
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Understandably this is playoff basketball so totals are going to be low. But the Celtics aren't playing the Raptors here. Miami isn't the defensive team that Toronto was. The Celtics are sure to be fired-up after blowing huge leads in the first two games to fall behind 0-2. If Boston builds up another big lead it won't coast. The Celtics will stay on the attack. There's also the chance Gordon Hayward makes his series debut. That would give Boston a legitimate fourth scoring weapon to go with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, who shot much better in Game 2. The Heat defense got through the Bucks because Milwaukee lacked a quickness advantage. The Heat don't have that edge on the Celtics. Miami, though, has been getting the needed contributions from players besides Jimmy Butler. The Heat scored 106 in the last game despite Butler shooting just 4-of-11 from the floor and scoring a meager 14 points. Miami's motion-laden offense has been successful exploiting Walker's weak defense. The Heat have averaged 109.7 points in regulation during their last seven games facing the Celtics and Bucks, who gave up the eighth-fewest points and ranked first in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. If the Heat are able to build up a big lead, I could envision a bubbling-over frustrated Celtics team committing a lot of fouls. |
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| 09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
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Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps. |
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| 09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -133 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
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The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks. |
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| 09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -118 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
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The Bucks matched up poorly against the Heat. Perhaps also distracted by spearheading a one-game boycott, the Bucks were drummed out of the playoffs by Miami. Credit to the Heat. But now Miami draws a well-focused opponent it doesn't match up well against. The Heat might have grabbed Game 1 in this series with a situational advantage since they are rested while the Celtics had to go the full seven games to eliminate the Raptors. However, the NBA schedulemakers negated that edge for Miami by scheduling this game four days after Boston took out Toronto. That's enough time for the Celtics to rest, recuperate and fully game-plan for Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, last played a full week ago. So they have to deal with a rust factor and lost momentum. The Heat finished 12th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They stepped up defensively against the Bucks. They did that by keying on Giannis Antetokounmpo and gambling that the rest of the Bucks weren't good enough. That worked because the Bucks weren't the same team inside the bubble they were during their dominant regular season when they won 53 of their first 63 games. The Bucks lacked off-the-dribble threats aside from Antetokounmpo. The Celtics have a different makeup. They don't have one superstar. Instead they have several stars - Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum - a strong bench and the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The Celtics actually are going to find scoring easier against the Heat than they did against the Raptors, who had the No. 1 defense in the league. The Celtics are vulnerable to fast backcourts and teams who have multiple shot creators. Aside from Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have that, nor can they match Boston's trio of star power. The Celtics have the needed defensive flexibility, too, that Milwaukee lacked. The Celtics can play up-tempo if it suits their purpose, or handle a half-court game that Miami favors. Prior to this season, the Heat hadn't won a playoff series since 2016. They lack the necessary deep playoff pedigree that Boston has from reaching the conference finals in 2017 and 2018. Upsetting the flawed Bucks has made the Heat overvalued. The money line price is low enough to back the superior Celtics. |
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| 09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
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The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues. |
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| 09-11-20 | Celtics -126 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
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First it was OG Anunoby with a 3-pointer at the buzzer and then it was Norman Powell coming up big in two overtimes in Game 6. We've reached Game 7 now in this series and Toronto is out of lives. The stars shine in Game 7 - and the Celtics hold the aces with Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Toronto was outstanding in Wednesday's Game 6. The Celtics weren't yet the game still went in double overtime. The Raptors also got to shoot seven more free throws in that contest. Toronto also made 41.3 percent of its 3-point shots. The Raptors hadn't hit 40 percent of their 3-point shots all series. Boston's bench and Walker are capable of far better than they showed in Game 6. The Celtics are 17-9-1 (65 percent) off a loss. They also have covered seven of their 10 playoff games with an average victory margin of eight points. I respect the heck out of the Raptors. But I want the Celtics going for me in this Game 7. |
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| 09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
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Now up 2-1 in the series, the Lakers smell blood. Stifling defense is the Lakers' ticket to beating the Rockets. It's something the Lakers are well aware of since they did it during the fourth quarter in each of their Game 2 and Game 3 victories. Houston is averaging 205 1/2 points during the past two games. The Rockets managed just 20 points in the fourth quarter during the last game. The Lakers are more than capable of playing elite defense. They ranked third in defensive efficiency and fourth in fewest points allowed during the regular season. The Rockets won the first game of this series still pumped and with adrenaline flowing after getting past Oklahoma City in seven games. But the Rockets have hit a fourth quarter wall running out of gas. Houston coach Mike D'Antoni admitted his team's legs got tired in the fourth quarter. The Rockets are the more fatigued team. The Rockets had a day off before Game 3. They'll have a day off before this Game 4. But their tiredness, energy and execution aren't going to be fully restored this late in the bubble with just one day of being idle. The Under has cashed 12 of the past 15 times the Rockets have played with one day's rest. The perception is the Rockets are just all about offense with James Harden and Russell Westbrook spearheading a smallball attack. That's misleading. The Rockets were middle-of-the-pack defensively. The Rockets are the smallest team in the league by design. But the Lakers aren't going to kill Houston inside because Frank Vogel believes LA's best lineup is a small one, too. There wasn't any Dwight Howard in Game 3. There are going to be plenty of 3-point shots. But the Rockets aren't accurate shooters. Both teams also are strong defending against shots from beyond the arc, each ranking in the top eight in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. The teams haven't been up-tempo either. The pace has been slow. That's a key factor that can't be overlooked in making this Under work. |
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| 09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
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I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors. |
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| 09-08-20 | Heat -144 v. Bucks | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
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Maybe the Bucks rise above the ashes and stay alive in this series. Milwaukee avoided a painful 4-0 sweep by winning Game 4 in overtime despite missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for nearly the last three quarters. That was a great team effort by the Bucks. But I also see it as their lone highlight of this series. The Bucks are not going to win this game because of three major reasons: 1. Miami is a nightmare matchup for them. 2. Antetokounmpo is unlikely to play because of a sprained ankle. If he does, he'll be severely hobbled. 3. Milwaukee's mental frame is shot due to a loss of confidence and lack of focus that was caused by leading the boycott following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in its home state. Jimmy Butler is now the best player on the court with Antetokounmpo ailing. The Heat are able to exploit the Bucks' perimeter defense while their own defensive strength takes away Milwaukee's strong offensive elements of scoring off the fast break and scoring inside. The Heat gave up the fewest fastbreak points in the league and ranked in the Top 5 in defense inside the paint. Butler and Bam Adebayo are two of the premier defensive players in the NBA. These matchup edges have helped the Heat beat the Bucks in five of seven meetings this season. Now the Heat smell blood. The Bucks aren't right in the head and the great Giannis is hurt. Too bad for Milwaukee because up until the season was put on hold, the Bucks were the best team in the league. That certainly is not the case now. |
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| 09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
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The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers. |
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| 09-07-20 | Celtics -105 v. Raptors | Top | 111-89 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
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The Celtics have more star power than Toronto, are deeper and have the best coach in the Eastern Conference if not all of the NBA in Brad Stevens. OK, so then why is this series tied 2-2? A miracle 3-point play with one-half second left in Game 3 and Boston missing 35 of 42 3-point shots in Game 4 are the reasons. Toronto plays outstanding defense. But the Celtics missed 22 of 27 uncontested looks from beyond the arc in the last game. I expect the Celtics to make a much higher percentage and for stars Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to play much better in this Game 5. The Celtics are due to bring their "A" game. Even if that doesn't happen, though, I like the Celtics' depth as the series goes deeper and fatigue becomes more of a factor. |
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| 09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
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Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again. |
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| 09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
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It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark. |
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| 09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
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The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. |
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| 09-03-20 | Raptors -108 v. Celtics | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
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It's not a surprise the Celtics lead the Raptors 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Series. Boston has shot 44.7 percent from the floor, while Toronto is hitting just 38.5 percent of its field goals. The Raptors have made only 26.3 percent of their 3-point shots. The positive for the Raptors is they have played their trademark strong defense. The series could be tied 1-1 if Toronto didn't blow a 12-point second half lead. But so far Boston's stars have outshined Toronto's top players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet all need to step up. Nick Nurse has to make adjustments because this is where the Raptors really miss Kawhi Leonard. I see this happening. The Raptors don't have the Celtics' star power even with Boston missing Gordon Hayward. But I do expect the Raptors to step up and be smarter with their shots. Nurse has proven he's an above average coach and Toronto should play with super intensity down 0-2 in the series. Toronto's problems have been on offense not defense. So they are correctable.
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| 09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 218.5 | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
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There are multiple superstars involved in this game. But look for defense to carry the day. There were a combined 194 points scored in Game 5 of this series. The Thunder-Rockets combined for 204 points in Game 6. Now we've reached Game 7 where the intensity should be at its peak. So I'm not expecting a scoring explosion, nor an up-temp, fast-paced game. The Rockets have a history of not producing their expected total during the later stages of a series. The Under has cashed 79 percent of the past 28 times the Rockets have played Games 5 through 7 in the postseason. Houston thrives on firing up 3-point shots. Only two teams ranked higher than Oklahoma City in 3-point field goal percentage defense. |
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| 09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 218 | Top | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
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The Over has cashed in five of the six games during this series. So why go against the grain now and play Under? There are several reasons starting with that these are a pair of top-11 defenses and neither team is up-tempo. There have been an average of 93.5 possessions per game during the series - the slowest pace of any playoff series. However, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been on fire and the teams have been shooting and scoring above their norm. Now we have Game 7. If there ever is going to be defensive intensity and pressure it will come in this game. There's also a new name in the mix - Nuggets guard Gary Harris. He's back healthy and an excellent defender.
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| 08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
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| 08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
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Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it. |
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| 08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
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There are a lot of dynamics that point to a lower-scoring game than the total posted: The teams last played on Monday. Possible rust. Russell Westbrook will make his series debut. This will be just his second game since Aug. 4. Possible rust. Focus could be an issue following the team's boycotting Wednesday's game in order to bring attention to social justice and racial inequality issues. Chris Paul was instrumental in those boycott talks. The series is tied 2-2 so this is a pivotal game. The Rockets live-and-die by the 3-pointer. No team fires up more shots from beyond the arc than Houston. Oklahoma City, though, finished third in 3-point percentage defense. Ace defensive rookie Lugentz Dort is healthy again for the Thunder. He's been a problem for James Harden, who has missed 28 of 39 3-point shots during the last three games.
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| 08-29-20 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
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Close out time here for Milwaukee. After being shocked in Game 1, the Bucks have won three in a row. The Bucks' defense stepped up in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when the Magic were semi hanging in holding Orlando to 25 points. I'm expecting a carryover of that Bucks' defensive intensity. The Magic lack the outside shooters to attack the Bucks' lone defensive weakness, which is just average in 3-point defense. Orlando is averaging only 103 points in its last three games. The Magic have shot just 28.9 percent from beyond the arc during these last three games. Defense is the Magic's strength. Orlando ranked fifth during the regular season defensively holding opponents to an average of 108.3 points per game. Unlike every other team in the bubble, the Magic don't have anywhere to go after their season is finished since the games are being played in Orlando. Magic coach Steve Clifford promised his team would go out with a supreme effort. That's going to come on the defensive end. The Bucks averaged 110.5 points during the first two games of the series. Milwaukee has scored 121 in each of the last two games. The Bucks shot 56 percent and 49 percent from the floor during these two last games. The Bucks are a good shooting team, but they aren't that good! The Bucks average 47.6 percent from the floor. There could be a rust factor, too, as Wednesday's game was postponed in the wake of the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis. So this will be the team's first game in five days. The Bucks could be bothered mentally, too, by all that has transpired since they were the ones who led the boycott of Wednesday's games. |
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| 08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
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Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers. |
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| 08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
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No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
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| 08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
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The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. |
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| 08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
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The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
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| 08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
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Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team. Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure. So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard. Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity. Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history. Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2. Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.
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| 08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
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You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
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| 08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
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Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look. I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points. Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored. The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent. On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1. I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play.
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| 08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points. The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter. LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley.
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| 08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5 | 124-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
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Forget the Nuggets' 135-125 overtime victory against the Jazz two days ago. This game should go back to being playoff-style, defensive-minded basketball. These are a pair of top-11 defenses who play slow, preferring a half-court style. Both are minus key offensive players. Missing for Utah is Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz failed to convince anyone that they adequately replaced Bogdanovic's much-needed perimeter shooting. The Nuggets have been without underrated Gary Harris and sparkplug Will Barton. Rudy Gobert is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA. He'll be motivated to do better against Nikola Jokic, who outplayed Gobert in the opener. Same with the Nuggets defense clamping down on Donovan MItchell, who went off for an embarrassing 57 points against them in Game 1. Torrey Craig had defended Mitchell well during the regular season when none of the three meetings went above 210 in regulation. The Nuggets may decide to give reserve defensive specialist Monte Morris more playing time in an effort to combat Mitchell. That would be another plus for the Under.
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| 08-19-20 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 226.5 | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
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The oddsmaker has reacted to the Raptors' 134-110 Game 1 victory against the Nets by adjusting the total four points. I don't believe that's warranted. The Raptors rank either first or second in the NBA in fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. This is the best defense in the NBA and the scrappy, but scrub-type Nets aren't going to be able to dent it. The Nets know they have to play more intense defense. It was too much culture shock for them going from just playing the Trail Blazers to the Raptors' tight defense. I think they will be better prepared. I also don't expect Fred Van Vleet to put up a career playoff-best 30 points when he hit 8 3-pointers against the Nets in the opening game. The Raptors-Nets met four times during the regular season. The total never was this high in any of those games. The teams averaged 216 points in those games.
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| 08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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| 08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
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The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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| 08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
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Portland can be a dangerous No. 8 seed. But the Trail Blazers are not at their best when laying mid-range points. They are 6-13-1 ATS the past 20 times laying points to a below .500 opponent. So I'm liking underdog Memphis in this point spread range. The Grizzlies are in must-win mode and have the young talent to pull off the upset. They lack Portland's experience. That negative, though, is reduced by the matchup being played at a neutral site with no fans. If the Trail Blazers lose, they are not eliminated like the Grizzlies would be with a loss. As the No. 8 seed, the Trail Blazers would get another chance on Sunday to play the Grizzlies. Only then would Portland be eliminated if it were to lose. This is going to be the Trail Blazers' third game in five days. They have played three close games beating the shorthanded 76ers, Mavericks and depleted Nets by a combined seven points. Brooklyn nearly upset the Trail Blazers on Thursday, losing 134-133. The Grizzlies are more dangerous than the Nets. Memphis also will be in action for the third time in five days. However, the Grizzlies are younger and off a confidence-boosting victory against the Bucks on Thursday. The Grizzlies give up three fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers.
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| 08-13-20 | Blazers v. Nets +10 | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
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Each team has gone a surprising 5-2 during the reboot. The line is large here because the Trail Blazers clinch the No. 8 seed in the West with a victory while the Nets' playoff spot is locked at No. 7 in the East. The Nets will meet the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. So the assumption is the Trail Blazers will bury the Nets. That's an assumption I'm not buying into. First, let's examine Portland. The Trail Blazers are in the eighth spot in the West. They are 34-39, which is one-half game ahead of the Grizzlies and Suns. Those two teams are 33-39. The Spurs are still in the hunt at 32-38. The Grizzlies, Suns and Spurs all play afternoon games. The Trail Blazers-Nets is the lone night matchup. So there's a chance the Trail Blazers may already have clinched a playoff spot before they even play. The Grizzlies are facing the Bucks. The Suns are taking on the Mavericks. The Spurs draw the Jazz. Portland's intensity would go way down if its playoff spot already is determined. Portland coach Terry Stotts would likely heavily reduce the playing time of his starters, too, especially CJ McCollum, who is playing with a broken bone in his back. But let's say that scenario doesn't happen. The Nets still are very live here. They have gelled under interim coach Jacque Vaughn producing strong efforts while displaying excellent chemistry. Brooklyn has beaten both the Bucks and Clippers in the Orlando bubble. The Nets held out Caris LeVert, Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen during their victory against the equally depleted Magic two days ago. Word is all three of those players will be back against the Trail Blazers. Vaughn was quoted as saying, "We talked about having some rhythm going into the playoffs. So all guys in that starting unit will be available to start. We'll see how the game progresses, but I'm looking forward to getting some rhythm back on the floor." Damian Lillard draws all the publicity. But LeVert is an excellent player. Harris is underrated and Allen has thrived with increased minutes. The Nets also have been getting a major contribution from unheralded guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He scored 26 points against the Bucks hitting 5 of 7 3-pointers. The Trail Blazers, even with motivation, aren't some dominant team that can easily cover double-digit spreads against spunky underdogs. They beat the Mavericks by three points and 76ers by three points in their last two games. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons and lost Joel Embiid in the first quarter.
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| 08-11-20 | Pelicans v. Kings UNDER 234 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
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Ordinarily it would be dangerous to go Under in a game involving these two teams. Neither team plays defense and neither's team coach is any good. But these are unique and different circumstances. Both teams are out of the playoff chase now after being eliminated on Sunday. So concentration could be an issue. More important, though, for the Under is the number of important scorers who are not going to play. The Pelicans are holding out Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Jrue Holiday. Those are their three best offensive players. The Kings won't be playing De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III. Kent Bazemore might not play either. The key is Fox. He's the Kings' main offensive guy and sets a fast tempo for them. His absence really hurts their offense.
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| 08-10-20 | Pacers v. Heat -3.5 | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
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The Heat are going to be healthy for this matchup getting back Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. The teams last met on Jan. 14 and the Heat won by 14 points. There was bad blood in that game between Butler and T.J. Warren. The Heat are in bounce back mood after losing to the Suns while missing Butler and Dragic. Miami has covered 20 of the last 27 times following a loss. Indiana, on the other hand, is off a victory against the Lakers. |
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| 08-09-20 | Rockets -5.5 v. Kings | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
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The Rockets are 3-1 since play resumed. They are playing for playoff seeding and aren't going to give up a game to the Kings, who aren't playing defense and haven't looked good. The Kings realistically know their playoff hopes are gone since they've gone 1-4 in the bubble. The Kings gave up 140 points in a loss to the Pelicans this past Thursday and then lost to the short-handed Nets on Friday. This is their third game in four days. They are dazed and demoralized. Houston has too much firepower and incentive for the Kings to stay close.
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| 08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
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The prideful Spurs aren't giving up on trying to make the playoffs for a record 23 consecutive seasons. They are still alive, but can't afford to take a loss to the Pelicans. I don't see that happening. San Antonio has a better record than New Orleans. The Spurs have covered four of the last five times they've been an underdog. The Spurs are capable of playing much better than they did in their last game, a 119-111 win against the short-handed Jazz this past Friday. The Pelicans have talent. But they are not well coached. There is a huge coaching disparity between Gregg Popovich and Alvin Gentry. The Pelicans are heavily reliant on Zion Williamson. They have a minus 10-point difference when he's not on the court. Williamson has averaged fewer than 20 minutes a game during the resumption of the season. New Orleans has played a weak schedule. The Pelicans' last three games were against the Wizards, Kings - who they lost 140-125 to - and Grizzlies. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This marks their third game in four days. |
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| 08-08-20 | Suns -129 v. Heat | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
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OK, I'm on the Suns' bandwagon. Phoenix is the lone unbeaten team in the Orlando bubble. The Suns suddenly are live for a playoff spot. They are playing at a high level and will have the best player on the court with Devin Booker as Jimmy Butler is out. The Heat are 6-7 this season when Butler hasn't played. The Heat also likely will be without Goran Dragic. He's not 100 percent recovered from an ankle injury. This has put added pressure on rookie Kendrick Nunn, who is struggling without Butler and Dragic out. Nunn has missed 23 of his last 30 shots. The Heat have clinched their playoff berth so they don't have the incentive and intensity the Suns have.
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| 08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229 | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
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The Suns are always live for going Over the total with their up-tempo pace and bottom-12 defense. Now the Pacers are playing much faster, too. They've adjusted their offense to feature T.J. Warren with big man Domantas Sabonis sidelined. Warren is averaging 39.6 points in Indiana's three games in Orlando. Victor Oladipo also is rounding into shape. He's averaging 18.3 points since the season resumed. Both teams rate in the top eight in offensive efficiency since play started again.
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| 08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
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Both teams are 3-0 since the NBA has resumed. The Pacers are a legitimate playoff team. The Suns are not. Phoenix still could be on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Clippers, 117-115, on Tuesday. T.J. Warren has emerged as a star during bubble play. He'll be sky high to duplicate his huge scoring against the Suns, his former team. The Suns are heavily reliant upon Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Pacers have a tough frontline to combat Ayton, an excellent defender in Malcolm Brogdon to help bother Booker and are a much deeper team.
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| 08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Jazz don't have the urgency the Grizzlies do because their playoff ticket is punched. The Grizzlies are putting their postseason chances in peril having gone 0-3 since play resumed. The Grizzlies blew a game to San Antonio, losing by two points. They lost a matchup to Portland in overtime and fell to New Orleans by 10 points two days ago. The Grizzlies got good looks at the basket against the Pelicans. They just couldn't hit their shots. Memphis has the talent and coaching to adjust and fix that. Utah is 2-13-2 ATS the past 17 times it has been favored. That's not a good role for them. The Jazz also have been having problems with their perimeter shooting. They've yet to adequately replace their second-leading scorer and top outside shooter, injured Bojan Bogdanovic.
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| 08-04-20 | Mavs -6 v. Kings | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
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A combination of horrendous defense and Luke Walton's coaching shortcomings have contributed to the Kings going 0-2 in the bubble. Sacramento has lost 129-120 to the Spurs and 132-116 to the Magic. Both of those opponents shot better than 52 percent from the floor. Dallas also is seeking its first win in the Orlando bubble. The Mavericks fell to the Rockets and were surprised by the Suns. Even though the Mavericks are all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, their 0-2 mark doesn't sit well with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle. So both teams should have a sense of urgency for this matchup. I don't just see the Mavericks being a level higher than the Kings, but two levels higher. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league. There is no chance of the Kings slowing down Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Those are easily the two best players on the court. Carlisle also is a far superior coach to Walton. The Kings surrendered 132 points to Orlando. It's scary to think how many points the Mavericks can put up on them.
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| 08-03-20 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Pelicans | 99-109 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
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I'm expecting an intense matchup here as both teams are 0-2 in the reboot and fighting for a playoff spot. So I'll take the points. Yes, the Grizzlies played Sunday against the Spurs, losing 108-106 on two free throws at the end. Memphis also fell in overtime to Portland. This marks their third game in four days and second in two days. Perhaps that's why this line is inflated in my view. But the Grizzlies are a young team and have fresh legs following the long layoff. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor this early in the Orlando bubble. The Grizzlies actually have excelled in this situation covering seven of the past eight times they played without rest. The Pelicans have loads of talent. But they commit too many turnovers, lack defense, are not well coached and Zion Williamson has had his minutes reduced. Williamson has played just 15 and 14 minutes during the Pelicans' first two games of the resumed season. Not only is this good from an opposition standpoint, but Williamson's lack of playing time has kept New Orleans from finding its rhythm after the long break.
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| 08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
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| 08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
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Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted. |
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| 07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
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| 07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
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A combination of a neutral site, no fans and more than a 4-month layoff helped produce two Unders during the NBA's two Thursday's opening games of the resumed season. The Jazz-Pelican matchup went under by 19 points and the Clippers-Lakers game fell 16 points below the total. This matchup has the makings of an Under, too. Both the Bucks and Celtics have a lot of star power. So it's easy to think offense with these teams. The Bucks do average the most points per game in the NBA. However, these are two excellent, well-coached defensive teams also. Boston is the third-ranked defensive team in the NBA giving up 106.8 points per game, while Milwaukee ranks fifth allowing 107.4 points a game. Each team is using this eight-game reboot to prepare for the playoffs. Their priority is to fine-tune for the postseason and avoid injuries. The Celtics are only going to play Kemba Walker 14 to 20 minutes a game. Walker has been bothered by a sore knee. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' two best players, aren't likely to play huge minutes either. The Bucks were somewhat embarrassed following a 124-103 scrimmage loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. So their defensive intensity could be raised. Expect vanilla offenses as neither team wants to show much since they could meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals when the stakes are raised.
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| 07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
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I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
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| 07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
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I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
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| 03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
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The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games.
Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. |
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| 03-08-20 | Raptors -5.5 v. Kings | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
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Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team. The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent. Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game.
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| 03-08-20 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 247 | 120-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
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I understand defense is not exactly a high priority with these two teams. But a lot has to break right for the Pelicans and Timberwolves to exceed this high Over/Under. New Orleans is playing for the fifth time in eight days. So is Minnesota. The tempo should be slower than usual because of that fatigue factor. The teams just met five days ago and it was a track meet with the Timberwolves pulling off a 139-134 upset road win. Both teams should be prepared for each other following this short turnaround especially the Pelicans in a rapid revenge situation.
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| 03-07-20 | Kings v. Blazers -138 | 123-111 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
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This is a crucial game for both teams being 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. I want Portland going for me here being home, having a healthy Damian Lillard and off a bad 127-117 road loss to the Suns on Friday. Portland is a much better home team going 17-13 compared to 11-23 on the road. Lillard should have the rust off this being his third game back from a groin injury. I like Portland's talent level more than Sacramento's with Lillard, CJ McCollum and Hassan Whiteside. The Kings haven't won at Portland since 2012, a string of 12 straight road losses.
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| 03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons +8.5 | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
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Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points. The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage.
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| 03-06-20 | Blazers -2.5 v. Suns | 117-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
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The Trail Blazers can't afford to lose this game in their quest to make the playoffs. Their journey is made easier with the return of star guard Damian Lillard. Phoenix has dropped four in a row. The Suns are down two key players with third-leading scorer Kelly Oubre sidelined with a knee injury and Deandre Ayton not likely to play because of an ankle injury. That should ensure another strong inside game from rejuvenated Hassan Whiteside. Portland has won the last five it has played the Suns in Phoenix.
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| 03-04-20 | Thunder -7.5 v. Pistons | 114-107 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
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Oklahoma City is in stop-the-pain mode having lost its last two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bucks and Clippers. Now the Thunder step way down in class to face the battered Pistons. The Pistons no longer have Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Blake Griffin is out for the season. Their two best players are Derrick Rose and Christian Wood. Rose isn't likely to play because of an ankle injury while Wood is questionable with a foot injury. So this sets up as a kill spot for the Thunder. The situation also favors Oklahoma City. Detroit is home for the first time since finishing a four-game road trip at Sacramento on Sunday. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games and 1-8 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark. The Thunder have been one of the top road spread teams covering 22 of their last 29 away games. They are 9-1 ATS, too, the past 10 times when playing without rest and and 9-1 ATS against opponent with a losing home mark.
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| 03-02-20 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hawks | 127-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
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The Hawks are getting some love here from the oddsmaker coming off consecutive home double-digit victories against the Nets and Trail Blazers. The key for the Hawks in those victories was their 3-point shooting. Atlanta sank 37 of 81 3-pointers during those two games for 45.6 percent. I don't see the Hawks keeping up that long range accuracy. They rank last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy hitting 33.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The buy sign is back on the Grizzlies after they halted a five-game losing streak coming off break with a monster, 105-88, home win against the Lakers on Saturday. That was LA's lowest scoring total of the season. The Grizzlies don't want to just give that victory back with a loss to the lowly Hawks, who are one of the five-worst teams in the NBA and at least 1 1/2 levels lower than Memphis.
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| 03-02-20 | Blazers +7 v. Magic | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
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The bottom line for me is Orlando is not this many points better than Portland even playing at home and the Trail Blazers missing Damian Lillard. The teams met in Portland on Dec. 20 and the Trail Blazers won, 118-103. Lillard was instrumental in that victory. But even without Lillard, the Trail Blazers should keep this close, if not win, taking on such a limited offensive opponent. Portland outscores Orlando by eight points a game. The Trail Blazers still have the best guard on the court in CJ McCollum. I also would take Hassan Whiteside against any of Orlando's big men right now. Whiteside has been rejuvenated this season leaving Miami. He's produced double-doubles in his last nine games. Orlando doesn't have a strong home-court failing to cover in seven of its last nine games at Amway Center.
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| 03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
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The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role. The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel. Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
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| 03-01-20 | 76ers v. Clippers UNDER 219 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
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The 76ers and Clippers have plenty of star power. They also are underrated defensive clubs. Philadelphia ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring defense giving up 106.5 points. The Clippers rate No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The 76ers are down their two best players, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. That greatly reduces not only their offense but tempo, too. Only two teams have played at a slower pace than Philadelphia during its past three games. The Clippers are fully healthy for one of the few times this season. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley are all excellent defensive players. Note this is an early West Coast start time. That's a plus for the Under, also.
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| 02-29-20 | Nets +7 v. Heat | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
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Miami received a much needed win beating the Mavericks, 126-118, last night. The Nets also played last night and were humiliated in the fourth quarter by the Hawks losing, 141-118, on the road. That was the most points the Nets had surrendered in three years. I'm expecting a much stronger and focused effort from the Nets, who even with that loss still yield just two fewer points per game than Miami. The Heat are a bit fat and happy after that victory. Miami hasn't been playing well just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Heat are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a point spread cover. Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS the past seven times following a victory. The Nets have covered in four of their last five games against the Heat, including both meeting this season winning, 117-113, at home on Jan. 10 and falling, 109-106, as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of those games.
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| 02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | Top | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
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The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses. I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday. |
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| 02-26-20 | Magic -129 v. Hawks | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
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The Magic are at their best versus sub .500 teams covering 10 of the past 13 times against them. This includes a 115-113 road win against the Nets this past Monday when Orlando rallied from 19 points down in the third quarter. That win pulled the Magic within 1 1/2 games of Brooklyn for the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Orlando certainly doesn't want to give back that progress with a loss to the lowly Hawks. The Hawks can be pesky versus good teams, but are just 7-16-1 ATS the past 24 times taking on opponents with a losing mark. The Magic surrender 14 points less per game than Atlanta. Orlando's top-ranked defense has the capability of frustrating John Collins, Trae Young and De'Andre Hunter.
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| 02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
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Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games! This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.
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| 02-24-20 | Magic +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
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Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games. Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks. The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6. Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.
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| 02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris. The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony. Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.
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| 02-23-20 | Wizards v. Bulls | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
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Decimated by injuries, the Bulls have lost eight straight games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Minus Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn. Denzel Valentine and Luke Kornet the Bulls committed a season-worst 26 turnovers in a 112-104 home loss to the Suns on Saturday. Zach LaVine is Chicago's only legitimate NBA starter. The Wizards had some momentum going 5-2 in their last seven games before All-Star break. However, the Wizards' shooting was off and their rust showed on Friday in their first game back from break. They lost, 113-108, at home to the Cavaliers. Washington should shoot better than the 38.7 percent it did against Cleveland. The Wizards have a better lineup and bench than the banged-up Bulls with their YMCA roster. The teams just met 12 days ago and the Wizards won, 126-114, as 3-point home favorites.
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| 02-23-20 | Wolves +14 v. Nuggets | 116-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
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It's taken nearly all season, but the Nuggets finally have gotten healthy. Short-term, though, that may not be such a huge plus as the team has to integrated again and role players have to readjust. The Timberwolves are thin up front without Karl-Anthony Towns. But their morale is better with D'Angelo Russell on board and Andrew Wiggins gone. Former Nugget Malik Beasley has looked good for Minnesota since coming from Denver on Feb. 5. He knows his old team so his presence should be an added plus. The Nuggets are not good in this role going 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. The Timberwolves have lost the first three games of the series to Denver, but only by an average margin of six points. None of their defeats were by more than nine points.
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| 02-22-20 | Suns -126 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
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Subtract Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine and the Bulls are in the argument for worst team in the Eastern Conference if not the entire NBA. The battered Bulls have dropped seven in a row the latest come at home to the lowly Hornets, 103-93, two days ago. Now comes the Suns, who are better than the Hornets. Analyzing this matchup I'll call Devin Booker versus Zach LaVine even. But the Suns hold talent edges at all the other spots especially with Deandre Ayton and Ricky Rubio. While the Bulls remain seriously undermanned, the Suns have gotten healthy with Dario Saric and Aron Baynes returning to the lineup. The Suns do well in these spots covering 15 of the last 22 times on the road when meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Bulls have covered only 30 percent of their last 56 home games.
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| 02-21-20 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Lakers | 105-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
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If you're going to play without rest the best time to do it is following a week long layoff. Memphis is 5-0 ATS the past five times when playing on the second of consecutive days and should even hold an edge on the Lakers because of it. The Grizzlies lost to the Kings on the road last night. The Grizzlies are adjusted to West Coast time now and should have the rust off. The Lakers, on the other hand, haven't played in nine days. The last time the Lakers played with more than five days rest was on Jan. 31 and they lost, 127-119, to the Trail Blazers as 13-point home favorites. LA also has a marquee look-ahead matchup hosting the Celtics on national television Sunday. The Grizzlies have been red-hot even with their loss to the Kings Thursday night winning 15 of their last 20 games, while going 14-6 ATS.
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| 02-21-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
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Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor. The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch. The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line. This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations. The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.
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| 02-21-20 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
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This line opened short. The Pacers are back on track after knocking off the Bucks in their final game before the All-Star break. TJ Warren may not play for Indiana, but the Pacers still hold a major talent edge with a now-healthy Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. The Pacers won't lack motivation as they are in revenge mode for a 92-85 home loss suffered to the Knicks on Feb. 1 when they weren't playing well. Indiana has covered in seven of its past nine away matchups. The Knicks are in total rebuild mode and team chemistry was shaken when word leaked that interim coach Mike Miller isn't going to be back even though Miller has been a huge improvement on David Fizdale.
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| 02-20-20 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 103-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
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Perhaps you think the Bulls are better than Charlotte? They aren't. Chicago is 19-36. Charlotte is 18-36. The Hornets are 2-1 versus the Bulls this season with their lone defeat coming by one point. Charlotte covered all three games versus the Bulls and is on a five-game ATS run against Chicago going back to last season. The Bulls would be superior to the Hornets if they were fully healthy. That's not the case, though. Center Wendell Carter Jr. is the only key injured Bull set to return today. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Kris Dunn all remain sidelined. Take away those players and Charlotte has the better roster. Zach LaVine gives Chicago the best player on the court. After that, however, the Hornets have Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington and emerging star Devonte' Graham, who is quietly averaging 18.1 points and 7.8 assists per game. Carter last played on Jan. 6 so he figures to be rusty and could be on a minutes restriction. Note the Bulls held LaVine to 4-of-19 shooting from the floor when the teams last played with Charlotte winning, 83-73, on Dec. 13 in Chicago. Charlotte comes out of the break having posted consecutive road victories against the Pistons and Timberwolves. Graham is playing his best ball of the season. The Bulls, on the other hand, have dropped six in a row. Among these losses were by 15 points to the Nets and by 12 points to the Wizards. Chicago isn't a strong home team especially versus weaker foes where they are 9-24 ATS the past 33 times hosting sub .500 opponents.
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| 02-13-20 | Clippers +2 v. Celtics | 133-141 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
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Both the Clippers and Celtics are off bad losses. It's the Clippers who I want in this spot. No team has been better following a defeat. LA is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS off a loss. The Celtics have plenty of stars. But it's the Clippers who have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is having another brilliant season and is one of the hottest players in the NBA scoring 30 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games. Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics due to a calf injury. The Clippers have beaten Boston four straight times, including 107-104 at home on Nov. 20.
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| 02-12-20 | Blazers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 104-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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Portland has stepped up recently going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, while defeating the Pacers, Rockets, Lakers, Jazz and Heat during this stretch. But the Trail Blazers couldn't keep it up against much-improved New Orleans on Tuesday, losing 138-117 on the road. That defeat dropped the Trail Blazers 2 1/2 games in back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So even though the Trail Blazers carry a huge fatigue rating - this is their fifth game in seven days - I'm expecting an all-out effort from a prideful bunch. This is close to a must-win spot for the Trail Blazers and they will be idle for the next nine days following this game. The Grizzlies are playing well, but are flirting with danger shooting just 23.8 percent from 3-point range during their last five games.
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| 02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
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Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter. Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier. The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday. The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington.
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| 02-10-20 | Hawks v. Magic -6 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Magic finished 20-9 to make the playoffs last season. They are going to need a similar kick to achieve that this season being nine games below .500. The Magic need to start immediately and this matchup sets up for them. Orlando has had a day rest and is stepping way down in class after losing 111-95 to the Bucks at home on Saturday. Now the Magic go from playing the best team in the league to one of the two worst teams in the NBA. Orlando has covered seven of the last nine times versus sub .500 opponents. The Hawks rallied from eight points down in the final 90 seconds of the first overtime to defeat the Knicks, 140-135, in double overtime at home on Sunday. That was just Atlanta's 14th win in 53 games. The Hawks went all out in beating the Knicks as four players logged at least 47 minutes with big man John Collins going 49 minutes. Now the Hawks take to the road where they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Atlanta remains thin up front as recent acquistion Clint Capela won't play due to a heel injury. Besides the urgency of needing to beat the Hawks, the Magic won't be taking Atlanta lightly either as they are 0-2 against them this season.
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| 02-09-20 | Clippers -5.5 v. Cavs | 133-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
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The Clippers buried the Cavaliers, 128-103, when they hosted them on Jan. 14. I doubt the Clippers win by 25 points again, but I do believe they beat the hapless Cavaliers by double-digits even if Kawhi Leonard sits out this game. Cleveland has lost 12 of its past 13 games, including the last five. The Cavaliers did pick up Andre Drummond. He could make his Cleveland debut here. It's going to take time, though, for the Cavaliers to adjust to Drummond, who is a better fantasy player than an NBA player. The Clippers should be in an angry mood after being humiliated, 142-115, by the Timberwolves on the road last night. The Clippers have a strong history of responding well following a loss. They are 23-7 ATS in that role and 7-1 ATS the past eight times after losing by double-digits. Cleveland has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests. |
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| 02-09-20 | Grizzlies -120 v. Wizards | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
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If the Grizzlies are serious about holding on to the last playoff spot in the Western Conference they need to win a road game such as this. Memphis has covered the last five times it has been favored. The Grizzlies had won six of seven before losing, 119-107, to the 76ers on the road this past Friday. No shame in that as Philadelphia is a dominant 23-2 at home. Now Memphis steps way down in class. The Wizards are a little fat and happy, too, after shading the Mavericks, 119-118, at home on Friday when Bradley Beal made a layup with 0.2 seconds left. Washington is 3-7 ATS the last 10 times following a victory. The Wizards rank last in the league in defense. The Grizzlies took advantage of the Wizards' porous defense to win, 128-111, in the first meeting on Dec. 14. It was the fourth time in the last five meetings the Grizzlies have covered against Washington.
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| 02-08-20 | Mavs -4 v. Hornets | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
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Even though Dallas won't have injured Luka Doncic and are playing without rest, they still should beat the Hornets by more than this point spread. Charlotte has turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 games with the lone victory during this span coming against the Knicks at home. The Hornets really have problems stepping up in class. They are 4-12 ATS the past 16 times when meeting above .500 opponents. Dallas is coming off a tough 119-118 road defeat to the Wizards last night. The Mavericks didn't play well and were knocked off on a buzzer-beating layup by Bradley Beal. Dallas not only has incentive to bounce back, but also strong revenge motivation, too. Charlotte stunned the Mavericks, 123-120, in overtime as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs during the first meeting. The Mavericks are very strong in this role going 12-3-1 ATS as road chalk. The Hornets could be missing several of their rotation players. Cody Martin is in concussion protocol and veteran forward Marvin Williams is expected to sign with another team possibly the Bucks.
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| 02-07-20 | Heat +1 v. Kings | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
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Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13. OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why. The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat. I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst. The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times.
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| 02-06-20 | Pelicans -4 v. Bulls | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
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Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines. The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season. New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick. The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home. The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108.
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| 02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -7.5 | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
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Yes, current form is important. But this is trumped by situation when it comes to the long grind-out season of the NBA. The Jazz have that key element going here along with a powerful home history against the Nuggets. Utah has lost four in a row. The Jazz also haven't played in four days. They are going to be ready for this matchup especially after losing six days ago to the Nuggets, 106-100, on the road. The Jazz played at San Antonio the previous night before losing to the Nuggets. Utah still might have beaten Denver if star guard Donovan Mitchell would have had just a normal game. Instead, Mitchell had one of his worst games of the season missing 11 of 12 shots from the field. This time around it's the Nuggets who are without rest facing a revenge-minded, ravenous Jazz squad. Denver is coming off an impressive, 127-99, home win against the Trail Blazers Tuesday night. Jamal Muray returned from injury for Denver aginst the Trail Blazers. However, forward Jerami Grant suffered an ankle injury. Denver already is without big men Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. Michael Porter could be out, too, severely restricting Denver's frontcourt depth. Grant, Millsap and Plumlee are Denver's best interior defenders. Rudy Gobert should be able to dominate inside while an obviously highly motivated Mitchell should produce big in the backcourt. Denver is 4-11 ATS following a victory and 3-7 ATS when playing without rest. The Nuggets also have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 visits to Salt Lake City losing on the road to the Jazz the past nine times.
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| 02-04-20 | Hornets +14 v. Rockets | 110-125 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
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The Hornets just lost lost 112-100 at home to Orlando for their 11th loss in 12 games. So why get involved with them here besides the obvious taking a generous amount of points? The Hornets outrebounded the Magic by nine and outplayed them in the paint. Orlando's strength is its frontcourt. The Magic won, though, because they uncharacteristically buried 16 of 34 shots from 3-point range. The Magic are 29th in scoring and 28th in 3-point field goal percentage. Charlotte is slightly below average in 3-point defense ranking 19th. Charlotte has covered the past five times following a double-digit home loss. The Hornets also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest. The other side of this equation is Houston. The Rockets are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. They just beat the Mavericks and Pelicans at home. The Mavericks were minus Luka Doncic and the Pelicans got caught peeking ahead to their nationally televised matchup against the Bucks today while adjusting to how to play basketball with Zion Williamson. After this matchup, the Rockets meet the Lakers in LA on Thursday in a nationally televised game. So this matchup isn't a high priority for Houston. The Rockets aren't expected to have big man Clint Capela nor Russell Westbrook, who hurt his thumb against the Pelicans on Sunday. So Houston likely will be without two of its three best players. The Rockets figure to play small ball again going without anyone taller than 6-foot-6. The Rockets did that against the Mavericks and Pelicans and got away with it despite getting outrebounded by a combined 35 boards in those two games. Charlotte has several unsung, lunch-pail type big men who are adept rebounders. They can help keep the Hornets within this large point spread.
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| 02-04-20 | Bucks -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor. But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do. Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points. The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet. The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game.
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| 02-03-20 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
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The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them. I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot is favorable as it is here. Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip. Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win.
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| 02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks -12 | 108-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
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The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. They have actually played better on the road than at home. Devin Booker has All-Star numbers. He should have been selected to be an All-Star. But all of this is trumped by the Bucks being the best team in basketball, being home and in an angry mood following a surprising, 127-115, home defeat to the road-weary Nuggets this past Friday. That was just the Bucks' third home loss of the season in 25 games at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 25-9 (74%) ATS following a defeat. So no disrespect to the Suns, but I want the Bucks going for me in this spot.
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| 02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
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Forget the 14-1 record from Dec. 26-Jan. 25. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row with the latter coming in back-to-back road settings against the Spurs and Nuggets. Now the Jazz have had a day to regroup and they gain a scheduling edge. They draw the Trail Blazers, who just won an emotional road game Friday night against the Lakers in the backdrop of Kobe Bryant's untimely death. This is just the second time since Dec. 21 Portland is playing without rest. The last time was Jan. 18 and the Trail Blazers lost, 119-106, at the Thunder. The Trail Blazers have surrendered their once lofty home-court edge. They are 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The Jazz are a top-four Western Conference team. The Trail Blazers have been a major disappointment and wouldn't be in the postseason if the regular season ended this weekend. The Trail Blazers are traveling back home saturated after last night's huge victory, Utah should be fully focused to end its losing streak knowing they won't be in action for another four days following this game.
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| 01-31-20 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
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The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits. So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest. The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here. The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. |
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| 01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets -123 | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
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If there is one team the Hornets can beat it's the Knicks especially on extra rest and being home. Charlotte has not played since Friday when it fell to the Bucks in Paris. The Hornets are desperate to end an eight-game losing streak. The Knicks remain short-handed in their backcourt and are a bit smug after beating their cross-state rivals the Nets on Sunday. Before defeating the Cavaliers in their last road game, the Knicks had lost three consecutive away matchups by an average of 26.6 points.
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