05-06-24 |
Wolves +5.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
106-80 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 39 m |
Show
|
I get that the defending world champion Nuggets don't want to fall to 0-2 in this series, especially being the home team.
However, the Timberwolves are playing their best ball, while the Nuggets are not, and Minnesota matches up well to Denver.
Minnesota is 5-0 in the playoffs with each victory being by at least six points. This includes a 106-99 road win against the Nuggets this past Saturday.
The Timberwolves rank first in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have an emerging superstar in Anthony Edwards and big athletic skilled defenders to bother Nikola Jokic with Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid. Jokic shot just 11-of-25 from the floor in Game 1.
Minnesota easily was the superior team in Game 1. There is no reason the Timberwolves can't repeat that. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS the past four times they've been favored. Denver and the Lakers scored the same amount of points during the last four games of their series.
While Edwards is averaging 39.6 points in his last three games, Denver's key scorer, Jamal Murray, hasn't been 100 percent because of a calf strain. Murry is shooting just 40.3 percent from the floor in the playoffs compared to 48.1 percent during the regular season.
|
05-06-24 |
Mets +108 v. Cardinals |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
108 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
It takes a certain ineptitude to lose a home series to the White Sox, who are 3-14 on the road. The Cardinals managed to pull off the feat this weekend.
Both the Mets and Cardinals have been disappointments. But I'd rather take a plus price with the Mets than back the Cardinals, who rank among the bottom-three in several important offensive categories. This includes home runs and runs.
St. Louis is 6-9 at home. The Mets are 7-8 on the road.
Sean Manaea goes for the Mets. He has a 3.07 ERA. The Cardinals have failed to score more than three runs in five of their last seven games.
The Cardinals are going with Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.79 ERA. Gibson is the poster child for mediocre journeymen. And that might be giving him too much credit.
|
05-06-24 |
Angels +145 v. Pirates |
|
1-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 47 m |
Show
|
The Angels are 12-22. They've also played the Guardians (22-12), Phillies (24-11), Twins (19-14) and Orioles (23-11) during their past four series. Those are all strong teams, much better than the Pirates.
The 16-19 Pirates don't deserve to be such a big favorite against the Angels.
Angels starter Tyler Anderson is a veteran, who knows how to pitch. He has a 2.23 ERA on the season. The Angels expect to be reinforced with catcher Logan O'Hoppe and infielder Luis Rengifo today. Both have been out.
The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller, who never can be relied upon. The Pirates have lost his last three starts. Keller's ERA during this span is 6.19.
|
05-05-24 |
Orioles v. Reds -109 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo has been one of the season's early surprises. He's 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Lodolo gives the Reds a big pitching advantage against Baltimore's Dean Kremer. So I see the Reds beating the Orioles and avoid getting swept at home by Baltimore.
Kremer is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA. He has struggled in day action giving up 11 runs in 16 innings.
The Reds lead the majors in steals. They are due to breaking out of a scoring slump.
|
05-05-24 |
Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 8 |
Top |
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Rockies are averaging two runs a game during their last four games. Their offense is far worse away from Coors Field. The Pirates have a bottom-five offense. They are averaging a puny 1.5 runs during their past eight games.
Seeing that Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire cements this Under play. The Under has cashed at 58 percent during the last five years when Eddings has been behind the plate. He's extremely pitcher-friendly with his strike zone.
This should be of help to the Rockies' Ryan Feltner, who shut out the Marlins for eight plus innings in his last start before faltering in the ninth inning.
Pirates starter Bailey Falter had a tremendous April allowing only four runs in four starts.
|
05-05-24 |
Magic v. Cavs -3 |
|
94-106 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 12 m |
Show
|
The youthful Magic turned a corner this season making the playoffs. But I rate the Cavaliers as the better team, especially at home. It's a nice bonus if All-Star center Jarrett Allen can play for Cleveland. He's questionable with a rib contusion and has missed the last two games.
The Cavaliers defeated the Magic, at home, in Game 5 without Allen and I see them doing it here, too, in Game 7.
Orlando lacks big-game playoff experience. The Magic are 1-8 in their past nine games at Cleveland. This includes going 0-3 in the series with their average losing margin being 8.3 points.
|
05-04-24 |
Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets |
Top |
106-99 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
We may not see a point spread this high the rest of the series. These teams are more even than perceived. Minnesota outscored Denver during the 2-2 split the teams had during the regular season.
The Timberwolves are the No. 1 defensive team. They gave up the fewest points per game and also were first in defensive field goal percentage. The Timberwolves are brimming with confidence after sweeping the Suns in four games with a winning margin of 15.5 points. Minnesota is rested and healthy.
The Nuggets did what they had to do in taking out the Lakers in five games. But they weren't sharp. The points were even during the final four games of the series. Denver went 0-3 ATS the last three times it was favored against the Lakers.
Minnesota matches up well to the Nuggets because of its size and physical defense. Anthony Edwards is emerging into a superstar. Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns can make things difficult for Nikola Jokic.
Denver is banged-up. Jamal Murray is dealing with a calf injury. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a defensive ace who likely will cover Edwards, isn't 100 percent of a sprained ankle sustained against the Lakers in Game 5 this past Monday.
|
05-04-24 |
White Sox v. Cardinals UNDER 8 |
|
6-5 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
There aren't too many teams with a worse offense than the Cardinals. The White Sox are one of those teams.
The White Sox are last in runs per game at 2.7. They also have the second-lowest batting average in the league at .209.
Veteran Lance Lynn should be able to tame Chicago's tepid lineup. Lynn has a 2.64 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen ranks 14th in ERA, placing them slightly above average.
St. Louis is last in the majors in homers, 27th in runs at 3.5 per game and 26th in batting average at .219. The Cardinals are averaging 2.8 runs during their past five games.
Erick Fedde gets the start for Chicago. He's been the White Sox best pitcher with a 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has a daytime ERA of 1.93.
|
05-03-24 |
Stars -108 v. Golden Knights |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
Dallas finished with the best record in the Western Conference and the Stars have taken over this series against Las Vegas winning three in a row. The defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights are on the verge of elimination now. I don't see them getting up to make the count.
Las Vegas hasn't been able to get its attack in gear. The Golden Knights are going against a hot Jake Oettinger and haven't scored more than two goals in any of the last three games.
The Stars had a season-best 26-10-5 road mark. They look fresher and more confident than Las Vegas.
|
05-03-24 |
Padres +104 v. Diamondbacks |
Top |
7-1 |
Win
|
104 |
23 h 50 m |
Show
|
Slade Cecconi has been a nice early story for the Diamondbacks. There were at least seven Arizona starters rated ahead of Cecconi at the start of the season. But injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have opened a spot in the rotation and Cecconi has taken advantage - so far.
Cecconi pitched 27 innings for Arizona in his major league debut last season and had a 4.33 ERA, while giving up four homers. He's made two starts this season, both on the road in pitcher's parks, going six innings each against the Giants and Mariners. He has a 2.25 ERA.
But now hitter's have more of a book on Cecconi. He's also pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field and facing the best offense he's seen. The Padres have the third-highest road batting average at .274. They rank ninth on the road in slugging percentage and third in on-base percentage when away from Petco Park.
Oh, yes, the Padres also have their best pitcher going here, Dylan Cease. He has been sharp in five of his six starts this season posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. Cease has held five of his six opponents to two earned runs, or fewer.
The Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their past seven games. They are averaging two runs per game during this time frame.
|
05-02-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
118-115 |
Loss |
-115 |
22 h 54 m |
Show
|
This has become a typical, physical Eastern Conference series. Defense has started to exert itself as we reach this Game 6.
There were 189 points scored in Game 4 at Philadelphia. Then in Game 5, the 76ers kept the series alive by upsetting the Knicks, 112-106, in overtime. There were 194 points scored in regulation.
The pace has been slow, the defense tightened and the fatigue factor is up especially for key scorers Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey. So I see a low-scoring matchup here.
|
05-02-24 |
Bruins +100 v. Maple Leafs |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
Credit Toronto with a gutty, 2-1, road win against the Bruins in Game 5 to stay alive in their Stanley Cup series.
But do you trust the Maple Leafs to follow up that victory with a home win?
I don't. Toronto is 1-5 in its last six home games, including 0-2 during this series. The Maple Leafs were 1-5 at home in Stanley Cup action last season.
The Bruins didn't play up to their standards in Game 5 yet still almost won.
The Maple Leafs are averaging only 1.8 goals a game during the series and could be minus Auston Matthews, the NHL's leading goal scorer. He's questionable due to illness.
|
05-01-24 |
Heat +14.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
84-118 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss.
The Heat have held Boston to an average of 102.3 points during the past three games. I regard the Heat's Eric Spoelstra as an elite coach.
The Celtics will be without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He's out with a calf injury.
Miami lost by 14 points in the last game. The Heat shot just 41 percent from the floor, 27 percent from 3-point range and only got to shoot 12 free throws. I expect the Heat to shoot better this game.
|
05-01-24 |
Rays -115 v. Brewers |
|
1-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
Just like many of his teammates, Zach Eflin is off to a slow start after going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last season.
I expect a strong effort from Eflin and the Rays after a bench-clearing brawl during Tuesday night's games. Something like that can ignite a sleepy team.
Milwaukee starter Colin Rea is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA. I expect regression from him. Rea's ERA the past three years were 4.55, 7.50 and 5.79. Rea doesn't generate many strikeouts. The Rays can exploit this.
The Brewers remain without injured outfielder Christian Yelich.
|
04-30-24 |
Magic v. Cavs -4.5 |
|
103-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2.
Should the Cavaliers be worried? No. I think the Cavaliers have been playing possum and they will regain the series lead following this game.
The Cavaliers are home, after all, in this matchup.
Orlando isn't the same team on the road. The Magic are youthful and inexperienced in the postseason. They have dropped six straight away games.
The Cavaliers beat the Magic by an average of 13 points when they hosted them in Games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for the Cavaliers to re-establish their dominance here.
|
04-30-24 |
Giants -124 v. Red Sox |
Top |
0-4 |
Loss |
-124 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game.
Giants starter Logan Webb hasn't been scored upon in his last 19 innings. He's a proven elite pitcher. Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't. He has a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings this season, but can't be counted on to go deep into the game. I'm not sold on the Red Sox's bullpen, particularly middle relief. Key setup man Chris Martin has a 5.56 ERA.
|
04-29-24 |
Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 204.5 |
|
97-89 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have yet to break 92 points in falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Thunder. So now after seeing totals of 216 1/2, 210 and 210, we have the lowest total of the series.
It's too low.
Oklahoma City was the third-highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. The Thunder also was first in 3-point accuracy.
Despite this being playoff basketball and the Pelicans having a good defense, the Thunder still have averaged 115 points during the past two games. The pace is fast and the ball movement is good for Oklahoma City. I don't see that changing. The Thunder are going to produce their share of points.
The key question is will the Pelicans hold up their end on offense, which they haven't done so far.
New Orleans has nothing to lose now down 3-0 and being at home. The Pelicans are more than capable of scoring points even with Zion Williamson out. They averaged 111.9 points during their last 10 games before this series.
Oklahoma City ranked 11th defensively allowing an average of 112.7 points during the regular season. The Pelicans are overdue to shoot better than 40.3 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from beyond the arc. During the regular season, New Orleans ranked ninth in field goal percentage at 48.6 percent and fourth in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.3.
|
04-29-24 |
Yankees v. Orioles -127 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Yankees got their bats going, scoring 30 runs on 37 hits in posting Saturday and Sunday victories against the Brewers.
I don't see the Yankees repeating that success against Grayson Rodriguez, one of the most promising pitchers in the American League. Rodriguez had his first bad outing of the season in his last start. However, he had a 2.63 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 24 innings during his first four starts this year.
The Orioles aren't likely to have closer Craig Kimbrel, who left yesterday's game with a back injury. Kimbrel, though, had blown two straight save opportunities.
I rate Rodriguez at least a tier above Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, who has a 4.33 career ERA vs New York in four starts.
|
04-28-24 |
Wolves v. Suns OVER 212.5 |
|
122-116 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
Normally I'd prefer Under rather than Over when it comes to NBA playoff basketball. But in this case, I find the value to be on the Over. The Timberwolves and Suns met just two days ago. There were 235 points scored in that game.
Minnesota won again to go up 3-0 in the series. The Timberwolves are dominating the paint. They are averaging 117 points in the series. Phoenix doesn't have the defensive capability to shut down Minnesota.
The Suns are a frustrated and humiliated team. They are playing at home, though, with nothing to lose at this embarrassing stage. So I see them playing fast and furious with a tempo that suits an Over. Phoenix certainly has the offensive stars to produce a lot of points against any team.
|
04-28-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Mariners UNDER 7 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Diamondbacks have scored a meager one run in each of their last three games. Now they are facing the pitcher who I believe is the most underrated in baseball - Logan Gilbert. He has a 1.87 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. I don't see Arizona doing much against Gilbert especially on the road in Seattle's tough pitching park.
The Mariners have scored four or fewer runs in four of their last five games. They rank 24th in runs and 25th in batting average. So Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt should prove serviceable here.
Note, too, that Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's always been good to pitchers.
|
04-28-24 |
Clippers +6 v. Mavs |
Top |
116-111 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 32 m |
Show
|
I'm taking the Clippers in this point range knowing Kawhi Leonard isn't going to be 100 percent - and that's if he even plays. He's questionable due to knee soreness.
But I want the better defensive team, which are the Clippers, and this many points in what shapes up as an intense, defensive-focused matchup. The first three games of the series all went Under. Now we have the lowest total of the four games. LA has held Dallas to an average of 98 points during the first three games.
Down 2-1 in the series, the Clippers will be at their most intense. It's not that they're lacking star power with James Harden, Paul George and a combative Russell Westbrook. The problem for the Clippers is cold-shooting. They are 18-for-54 from 3-point range, which is 25 percent. The Clippers made 38 percent of their 3-pointers during the regular season.
The Mavericks' defense is below average, ranking 20th in points allowed and 18th in 3-point defense. The Clippers have a top-10 defense.
I'm not counting on him being out, but Luka Doncic is questionable because of a sore knee. It would be an unexpected bonus if he didn't play. Tim Hardaway is doubtful with an ankle sprain. He's the Mavericks' third-leading scorer.
|
04-27-24 |
Rays -1.5 v. White Sox |
Top |
7-8 |
Loss |
-135 |
17 h 47 m |
Show
|
Give me a reason, any reason, to fade the 4-22 White Sox. OK, I have one. The Rays just were embarrassed, 9-4, by the White Sox on Friday night. The White Sox haven't won two in a row all season. They are the worst offensive team in baseball by far ranking last in various major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. I don't see Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale having too much trouble handling such a weak lineup. The Rays should do plenty of damage against rookie White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.
|
04-27-24 |
Yankees -125 v. Brewers |
|
15-3 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 46 m |
Show
|
Both teams are off to excellent starts. I'm not sold on the Brewers, though, and I'm especially not sold on Joe Ross. He has a 4.05 ERA. Milwaukee is 1-3 in his starts. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon, on the other, is bouncing back nicely from last season. He has given up two runs or fewer in four of his five starts. Rodon has a 2.70 ERA. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last three starts.
|
04-27-24 |
Cavs v. Magic -130 |
|
89-112 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
The Magic are a young, inexperienced playoff team that desperately needed a confidence boost after losing the first two games of the series to Cleveland on the road. The Magic got that this past Thursday when they came home and buried the Cavaliers, 121-83. I see the Magic riding that confidence and swagger rewarding their home crowd with another victory. The Magic gave up fewer points per game than the Cavaliers during the regular season, ranking fourth. Orlando's offense has improved during each game of the series. The key, though, was the Magic's domination on the boards. Orlando outrebounded the Cavaliers, 51-32, in the last game.
|
04-26-24 |
Wolves v. Suns -4 |
Top |
126-109 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 60 m |
Show
|
Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns.
Phoenix won all three regular season games against the Timberwolves. The Suns won those games by an average of 15.7 points.
But the Suns have struggled against the Timberwolves during the first two games of this playoff series with both games being in Minnesota. Now, though, the Suns are back in Phoenix in must-win mode.
Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are overdue for big performances especially Booker.
|
04-26-24 |
Wolves v. Suns OVER 207.5 |
|
126-109 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
Defense comes to the forefront during playoff basketball. But there has been too much of a lower adjustment on this total, especially with the Suns returning to Phoenix to host the Timberwolves. This is the lowest total of the series and Phoenix's lowest total of the season.
The tempo has been good for an Over. The teams are running. What hasn't been good is Phoenix's shooting. The Suns shot 49.3 percent from the floor during the regular season. That was the fifth-best in the league. However, the Suns have shot 44.4 percent from the field during the first two games of this season.
Minnesota has been playing good defense. Bradley Beal and especially Devin Booker are due, though, for big games. I look for the Suns to shoot much better at home where the Timberwolves will be far less intimidating. The Timberwolves will get their share of points, too, against an average Suns defense that has trouble defending in the paint.
|
04-26-24 |
Royals v. Tigers -111 |
|
8-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Royals and Tigers are two of the most improved teams in baseball. I slightly favor the Tigers' pitching matchup with promising Reese Olson against Seth Lugo, a mediocre journeyman.
But why I really like the home Tigers here is the situation. Detroit was idle on Thursday, while the Royals had to sit out nearly a four-hour rain delay in nipping the Blue Jays, 2-1, at home on Thursday. The game was finally called after five innings.
Detroit has underrated pitching. Olson has pitched better than his 0-3 record and 3.80 ERA. The Tigers' hitting has picked up recently. Detroit has scored four or more runs in seven of its last eight games.
Lugo has pitched well to open the season going 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA. I see regression coming, though.
|
04-25-24 |
Knicks v. 76ers -4.5 |
Top |
114-125 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday.
Embiid has good reason to be fuming: The Knicks stole the game. The referees blew several calls in the final seconds that cost the 76ers that game as the home Knicks scored eight straight points in the final 30 seconds to pull out the victory.
That puts the Knicks up 2-0 in the series. But now the scene shifts to Philadelphia where the fired-up 76ers will be in Circle-The-Wagons mode in this must-win spot.
Embiid and emerging star Tyrese Maxey will have had two full days to get healthy. The next game isn't until Sunday. So the 76ers will be laying it all on the line here. I want them going for me.
|
04-25-24 |
Panthers v. Lightning -105 |
|
5-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
After a pair of one-goal road losses to the Panthers, the price is right to back the Lightning at home for Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Series. The frustrated Lightning probably should have won Tuesday's Game 2, but were defeated in overtime.
Florida lost second-line center Sam Bennett in its Game 2 victory.
Tampa Bay is 25-11-4-1 on home ice. The Lightning have the top power play unit in the NHL. It's hard to imagine Sergei Bobrovsky being as good in net as he was in Game 2 when he was absolutely spectacular for Florida.
|
04-25-24 |
Astros -119 v. Cubs |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
13 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Astros are 1-7 in their last eight games and in danger of being swept by the Cubs.
So why back Houston here? Three reasons: Justin Verlander, a rested Josh Hader and the Cubs have key injuries.
Verlander gives the floundering Astros credibility on the mound. He's facing Javier Assad. Hader, who has been the most dominant reliever entering this season, has had ample rest.
The Cubs will be minus Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Bellinger leads the Cubs in RBI's while Suzuki has driven in the third most runs for Chicago.
|
04-24-24 |
Bruins v. Maple Leafs -107 |
|
4-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
Normally I don't care to back the Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup playoffs given their sad postseason history. But this is a good spot for Toronto. The Maple Leafs' confidence is up after they evening the series at 1-1 with a 3-2 victory against the Bruins this past Monday. That victory also snapped an eight-game losing streak to Boston. Now the Maple Leafs are at home. They could get William Nylander back. That would be huge. Nylander, second on the team in goals and points, has missed the first two games because of injury. The Bruins are down a defenseman in their rotation with Andrew Peeke suffering an injury.
|
04-24-24 |
Brewers +105 v. Pirates |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
105 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
Look for the Brewers to get back on track here. Pittsburgh has won the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has stranded 12 baserunners. But I see that changing in a pitching matchup of Bryse Wilson for the Brewers against Josh Fleming. Wilson is pitching well with a 1.00 ERA during his past four outings spanning nine innings. He is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five career outings against the Pirates, his former team. This includes a pair of starts. Fleming hasn't thrown more than three innings in a game this season. So this shapes up as a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the 10th-highest bullpen ERA.
|
04-23-24 |
Mariners -107 v. Rangers |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today.
This is Texas' first game at home in 12 days since returning from a 10-game road trip. The Rangers are up against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert is an emerging star with a 1-0 record and 2.33 ERA. He gets overlooked in Seattle's pitching staff because of Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but he's one of the best No. 3 starters in the league. Gilbert has a 2.88 career ERA vs the Rangers in 10 starts.
Texas starter Dane Dunning isn't in Gilbert's class with a 2-1 record and 3.91 ERA. Dunning has a 4.28 lifetime ERA against Seattle in eight starts.
|
04-23-24 |
Astros -108 v. Cubs |
Top |
2-7 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Houston Astros have been playing like the Houston Colts .45s. Hard to believe, but the Astros are 7-16. Houston is down from its recent past dominant seasons, but they haven't regressed this much!
What the Astros needed was a day off to regroup and get focused again. They got that on Monday being idle. That means a rested bullpen and a rested Josh Hader.
This is good news for starter J.P. France, who held the Braves to two runs on four hits in five innings this past Wednesday in his last start. The Braves are the top offensive team in baseball.
The Cubs are going with Jordan Wicks, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Wicks has yet to complete five innings during any of his first four starts this year. The Cubs have been vulnerable at closer with Adbert Alzolay blowing four of his first seven save opportunities.
Chicago has been without outfielder Ian Happ the past two games due to a hamstring injury. He's second on the Cubs in runs scored. He's questionable.
Bottom line is I like the pitching matchup for the Astros - both starter and bullpen - and they are due to start turning things around. The price is right to back them.
|
04-23-24 |
Suns v. Wolves OVER 212 |
Top |
93-105 |
Loss |
-110 |
20 h 13 m |
Show
|
Even though this is playoff basketball, this is too short of a total given the star power these teams possess.
Minnesota dominated the paint, shooting 50 percent from the floor, in beating the Suns, 120-95, in the series opener this past Saturday. The Suns had trouble matching up and slowing down Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, who were a combined 19-for-33 for 57.5 percent shooting from the field.
The Suns shot just 44 percent from the floor and 32 percent from 3-point range. They were in the top-five in each category during the regular season making 49.3 percent of their field goals and 38.2 percent of their 3-point shots.
Saddled with foul trouble, Devin Booker had an off shooting game for the Suns in Game 1.
The Suns had scored 125 points against the Timberwolves during the final regular season game. I expect Phoenix to come out with a fast-pace and in desperation mode after its embarrassing opening game series loss.
|
04-22-24 |
Orioles +107 v. Angels |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
107 |
12 h 2 m |
Show
|
I'm not turning down the Orioles at an underdog price against the 9-13 Angels, who are in a tough situational spot having just finished a 10-game road trip on Sunday. This is the Angels' first home game in 12 days and they've had no time to get settled back home and into their own time zone after playing at Boston, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. The Orioles lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. Baltimore is one of the best teams in baseball at 14-7. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last seven games with all of those victories during this span coming by more than one run. The Angels are favored because the pitching matchup is Albert Suarez vs Red Detmers. Suarez hasn't been scored upon in 5 2/3 innings this season. Detmers, though, has been Cy Young award-winning sharp, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 22 2/3 innings. The Angels, however, have managed only seven runs in their last four games. Aside from Mike Trout, they have no outstanding hitters. The Orioles, by contrast, have a tough lineup all the way down to their No. 9 hitter.
|
04-22-24 |
Orioles v. Angels UNDER 8.5 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
103 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Angels are a below average offensive team and in a scoring slump with just seven runs in their last four games. Orioles starter Albert Suarez is on the comeback trail. He has yet to be scored upon in 5 2/3 innings this season.
Angels starter lefty Reid Detmers is making an early case for Cy Young Award honors with a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. The Orioles are nothing special against southpaw pitching.
|
04-22-24 |
Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 |
Top |
86-96 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 15 m |
Show
|
Having had the Under in Game 1 this past Saturday, I wasn't surprised when only 180 points were produced in the Cavaliers', 97-83, home victory against the Magic.
But now with a downward adjustment of nearly six points on the total, I'm going Over in Monday's Game 2 meeting between these teams.
Before Saturday's Game 1, the team's hadn't played in nearly a week. It was an unusual early start time, too. The Magic were tight competing in their first playoff action since 2020.
None of those factors will be in play for the Under in this game. It's a normal evening start. Both teams should have the rust off and Orlando won't be so nervous.
I understand both teams are excellent defensively. But the outside looks were there for Orlando with the Cavaliers packing the inside. Not only did the Magic miss 29 of 37 shots from 3-point range, but they also only made 63 percent of their free throws going 19-for-30. Cleveland didn't shoot well either from 3-point range, missing 22 of 30 from beyond the arc.
Orlando had scored 113 or more points in five of its last seven previous games. Cleveland averaged 116.7 points in its past four games before this matchup.
Yes, this is playoff basketball. The defensive intensity is magnified. But I expect the team's to shoot much better than a combined 16-for-67 (23.8 percent) from 3-point range especially with stud scorers Donovan Mitchell and Paolo Banchero.
|
04-21-24 |
Predators +129 v. Canucks |
|
2-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
There's a lot of built-in pressure on the Canucks hosting their first Stanley Cup game in nine years. I believe the Predators - an excellent road team at 24-14-3 - can steal this first one in Vancouver.
I have a lot of faith and respect for forward Filip Forsberg, defenseman Roman Josi and goalie Juuse Saros, all of whom rank among the best at their respective positions.
Vancouver did sweep Nashville, 3-0, during the regular season. However, all three of those victories came before Christmas. The Predators became a much stronger team during the second half of the season.
|
04-21-24 |
Rangers v. Braves OVER 10 |
|
6-4 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
The Braves are the best offensive team in baseball. They rank first in runs, batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Atlanta is swinging hot bats right now averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games.
I don't see Michael Lorenzen and a disappointing Rangers bullpen stopping Atlanta's offense.
Lorenzen will be making his second appearance of the season. He went five innings - against the Tigers. Detroit has a bottom-seven offense. The Braves saw Lorenzen three times last year. They got to him for 17 hits, seven walks, five homers and 14 runs in just 11 1/3 innings. Texas' bullpen has a 5.05 ERA, which is the eighth-worst.
The Rangers should do their share of damage against Darius Vines, who has only 25 innings of big league experience. Texas ranks eighth in batting average and 11th in runs.
There will be a slight wind blowing out to left. Brock Ballou is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his third year in the majors. The Over is 15-11 (58 percent) in games he has been behind the plate.
|
04-21-24 |
Avalanche v. Jets -104 |
|
6-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker is giving Colorado too much respect with this line. The Avalanche is a much better home than road team. Winnipeg is a blazing 8-0 in its last eight games. This includes a 7-0 road win against the Avalanche just eight days ago. That victory also meant a season sweep against Colorado for Winnipeg.
The Avalanche enter Stanley Cup play with a losing record during their last 11 games.
I don't see the Avalanche having a big scoring game on the road against the Jets, who tied the Panthers for fewest goals allowed during the regular season at 2.4 per game.
|
04-21-24 |
Heat +14.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
94-114 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out.
Since clinching home-court, the Celtics have covered only once going 1-3-2 ATS. Their straight-up victories during their final six regular season games were by one point against the Kings and wins against the Trail Blazers, Hornets and Wizards whose combined record is 57-189. Boston lost by 13 points to the Bucks and by nine points to the Knicks during their two other games.
It has been a week since the Celtics last played.
No such rust, or lack of intensity, with the Heat. Miami had to defeat the Bulls, 112-91, this past Friday in a play-in tournament elimination game to get to this series. The Heat won that game despite not having Jimmy Butler, who remains out.
The Heat made the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last season. They proceeded to win the Eastern Conference, including taking out the Celtics.
No Butler, but the Heat still are the Heat. That means excellent coaching, big-game experience, tough defense and both physical and mental toughness.
|
04-20-24 |
Maple Leafs v. Bruins -120 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
Boston owned Toronto during the regular season winning all four games, including capturing the last two meetings by three goals apiece in each game.
Toronto has a sad playoff history and enters this opening game matchup on a four-game losing streak giving up 22 goals during this span.
Defense always is a key especially in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Bruins ranked sixth defensively. They held Toronto to one goal each during the previous two meetings.
The Maple Leafs were 21st defensive and 23rd on the penalty kill.
|
04-20-24 |
Orioles v. Royals UNDER 8 |
Top |
9-7 |
Loss |
-114 |
19 h 46 m |
Show
|
Don't look for many runs to be scored in this Orioles-Royals game. Both teams have their aces going. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore and emerging star Cole Ragans for Kansas City. Burnes has a 2.28 ERA and Ragans' ERA is 1.93. The top bullpen arms are fresh, too, for this game. This is a rematch of an April 3 game when the Orioles won, 4-3. Ragans didn't give up a run in that contest. He allowed only one hit, two walks and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings. Burnes gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The weather and slated home plate umpire are good signs, too, for an Under. Temperatures are going to be in the low 50s with the wind blowing in at around 10 mph. Ryan Blakney is scheduled to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed in 19 of Blakney's last 29 games as home plate umpire going back to last season for 66 percent.
|
04-20-24 |
Angels v. Reds -124 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Angels have a weak offense with the exception of Mike Trout and are going with a below average pitcher in Patrick Sandoval. The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs, lead the league in steals, are home and have the superior starter going in Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati got back on track with an impressive, 7-1, home win against the Angels on Friday after having lost three in a row to the Mariners in Seattle.
|
04-20-24 |
Magic v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 |
|
83-97 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
Two outstanding defensive teams here in what should be an intense, grind-it-out opening-round Eastern Conference series. Throw in an unusual start time and a six-day rust factor and the Under should pay off.
Neither team hasn't played in six days. The Magic could be tight, too, since this is their first playoff game since 2020.
Orlando has a bottom-seven offense, but is very strong defensively. The Magic ranked fourth in fewest points allowed per game, gave up the second-fewest field goals and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding.
The Cavaliers gave up the seventh-fewest points per game in the NBA. They also were third in defensive two-pointers allowed and ranked sixth in defensive field goal percentage.
An early day time start is another factor favoring the Under.
|
04-19-24 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants -120 |
|
17-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
I'm not scared off by Blake Snell's 0-2 record and 12.86 ERA through two starts with the Giants. His high ground ball rate is there so I'm not worried. I'm expecting positive regression starting with this game against a Diamondbacks team that is 2-5 on the road and whose batting numbers are well below par away from home. Snell has dominated the Diamondbacks with a 5-1 mark and 1.11 ERA in eight career starts. Arizona starter Jordan Montgomery is making his season debut. Montgomery isn't nearly where he should be. He pitched 7 2/3 innings for Triple-A Reno working his way into shape after signing with the Diamondbacks where his ERA was 10.57. The price is low enough to back Snell and the Giants.
|
04-19-24 |
Kings v. Pelicans +1.5 |
Top |
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 51 m |
Show
|
I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday.
But these reasons aren't valid enough to change my mind that New Orleans is better than Sacramento and will prove it here. It's an added bonus the Pelicans are home and in an underdog role.
Yes, the Pelicans are off consecutive defeats to the Lakers. They have trouble matching up to LA. Sacramento doesn't have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Pelicans play with far more confidence against the Kings. They are 5-0 vs Sacramento this season, including a 12-point road victory a week ago.
The Pelicans know how to win without Williamson. They've done it before. This isn't to downplay Williamson's absence, but the Kings have their own injury woes. Starter Kevin Huerter is out for the season with a shoulder injury and sixth man Malik Monk is sidelined with a knee injury.
The Kings smashed the Warriors. But even with that victory, Sacramento is just 5-7 in its last 12 games.
A big reason why the Pelicans are 5-0 against the Kings is superior defense. New Orleans ranks eighth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point defense. Sacramento, by contrast, is 17th in scoring defense, 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point defense.
|
04-18-24 |
Blackhawks +312 v. Kings |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 47 m |
Show
|
At this price, I'm going to take a shot on the Blackhawks. The Kings have clinched a playoff berth. So they could be resting players to get ready for the Stanley Cup.
The Kings still could clinch third place in the Pacific Division if they win and somehow the visiting heavily underdog Ducks upset the Golden Knights. But even if that were to happen, the Kings would meet the Oilers in the first round. That's not an ideal matchup for the Kings, who have been eliminated in the first round by Edmonton each of the past two seasons.
Chicago has lost five in a row. Prior to that, though, the Blackhawks upset the Stars. The Blackhawks also played the Golden Knights tough in Las Vegas during their previous game. Chicago trailed by one goal late in the game before pulling its goalie and losing by two goals when the Golden Knights scored an empty net goal.
|
04-18-24 |
Guardians +115 v. Red Sox |
Top |
5-4 |
Win
|
115 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven.
But the Red Sox are in trouble in this game. O'Neil is likely to miss his third straight game because of a concussion. Boston's bullpen is below average and this is going to be a bullpen game for them.
Reliever Brennan Bernardino is slated to start for the Red Sox. He's only expected to pitch one or two innings followed by Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox have a 4.11 bullpen ERA.
By contrast, the Guardians rank No. 2 in the majors in bullpen ERA at 2.15. This is a huge plus for Cleveland's aged starter Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed two earned runs during his past 7 2/3 innings and has a respectable 3.55 ERA.
Given these circumstances, I'll go with the Guardians especially in an underdog role.
|
04-17-24 |
Oilers v. Coyotes +156 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
156 |
11 h 23 m |
Show
|
I'm going to accept this price on the home underdog Coyotes, who are likely playing their final game in Arizona. The team is expected to move to Salt Lake City next season.
The Coyotes are 4-2 in their last six games. Playing at 5,000-seat Mullett Arena on the Arizona State campus is tough enough for opponents, but it should be especially difficult for the Oilers because of the Coyotes' added motivation.
"We want to play our last game with class, with respect and give the best effort that crowd can expect," Coyotes coach Andre Tourigny was quoted as saying. "We want to make sure we are remembered as a group who fought with every last ounce we have in our body."
The Oilers have had a wild ride this season. But they have secured home-ice advantage for the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. This is just their second road game in two weeks.
|
04-17-24 |
Heat v. 76ers -4.5 |
Top |
104-105 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 8 m |
Show
|
There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored.
Superstar center Joel Embiid returned this month after being out since February. Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and ATS in the six April games Embiid has played. It's not just Embiid. Tyrese Maxey shot up Miami's zone defense averaging 27.3 points and 8.3 rebounds against the Heat this season.
Miami has a history of stepping up come playoff time. But that perception doesn't fit this season, especially against a 76ers team the Heat have trouble matchup up against. The Heat rank 26th in scoring. They can easily beat the Raptors, but they don't have it in a step-up playoff game such as this one.
|
04-16-24 |
Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
Top |
2-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
10 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Nationals have one quality start this season. Don't expect them to have two after this game against the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin is starting for Washington. He hasn't been good since 2019.
Corbin is looking terrible again this season with an 0-2 mark and 8.44 ERA in three starts. Corbin just gave up seven runs on 11 hits against the Giants in 5 2/3 innings this past Wednesday. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and have a far more dangerous lineup than the Giants.
The Nationals should contribute to this total going Over since it's a bullpen game for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the 10th-highest bullpen ERA in the majors. Washington ranks No. 2 in the majors in stolen bases.
|
04-16-24 |
Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 |
Top |
110-106 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 13 m |
Show
|
It's playoff time now in the NBA. That means the defensive intensity goes way up. This matchup should be a perfect example of that.
The Pelicans were embarrassed by the Lakers at home this past Sunday falling behind by 32 points in a 124-108 loss. Expect a very physical, focused defensive effort from the home Pelicans in this rematch.
"We have to come back with the right mentality," Pelicans coach Willie Green was quoted as saying. "They (the Lakers) were the aggressors (this past Sunday). We have to be the aggressive team. We have to be the more physical team. We have to keep them out of our paint and make them take contested shots and rebound the ball."
The Pelicans certainly are capable of this. They are a top-eight defensive team with the second-best 3-point field goal percentage defense.
The Lakers held the Pelicans to 108 points two days ago despite New Orleans making 48 percent of its shots from the floor, which is its average.
|
04-15-24 |
Padres -115 v. Brewers |
Top |
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 17 m |
Show
|
Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start.
I'm not buying the Brewers, though, as a top team. The Padres have the superior offensive players and a strong edge in pitching with a matchup of Joe Musgrove vs Joe Ross. Musgrove's ERA the past three years is 3.05, 2.93 and 3.18. Ross is a reclamation project, who has missed much of the past two seasons because of elbow surgery.
The Brewers' timely hitting could be rounding its course. Milwaukee stranded 15 runners in scoring position during its 6-4 loss to the Orioles on Sunday. The Brewers remain without injured Christian Yelich.
The Padres are off a, 6-3, road win against the Dodgers last night. However, Milwaukee also has to travel. The Brewers haven't been home in eight days, having just concluded a seven-game road trip against the Orioles and Reds.
|
04-15-24 |
Canadiens v. Red Wings -1.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
I see the Red Wings winning this game by multiple goals. It's Detroit's final regular season home game and the Red Wings are fired-up after upsetting the Maple Leafs on the road this past Saturday. That dramatic overtime victory keep the Red Wings' playoff hopes alive. The Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six games and out of playoff contention.
|
04-15-24 |
Guardians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 |
|
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 5 m |
Show
|
Both teams will be back in action less than 24 hours after playing on Sunday. That's because this is the traditional Patriot's Day holiday game in Boston with a weird Monday 11:10 a.m. East Coast time start.
That unusual time has to have a negative effect on batters. Neither team has a dynamic offense either.
Xzavion Curry is slated to make his season debut for the Guardians. He had been sidelined by a viral infection. The Red Sox have never faced him. Curry is backed by a deep Guardians' bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.88.
Kutter Crawford gets the start for Boston. He has a 0.57 ERA in 15 2/3 innings this season, living up to preseason hype that he was going to be one of the more improved pitchers in baseball.
|
04-14-24 |
Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack.
Starting pitchers Yu Darvish and James Paxton are off to good starts. But I favor the offenses here. Both San Diego and Los Angeles have bottom-12 bullpen ERA's.
The Dodgers opened the season against Darvish, who pitched 3 2/3 innings against them in Seoul, South Korea. Darvish has a 3.86 ERA on the season and is past his prime.
Darvish is going to have to deal with a sizzling Mookie Betts, who is batting .500 with two homers and 12 RBIs in 20 at bats against San Diego this season.
The 35-year-old Paxton has opened the season with a 2-0 record and 1.64 ERA. His starts, though, have come against the Giants and Twins. Now he steps up against the Padres. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar all have good histories against Paxton.
|
04-14-24 |
Lakers +3.5 v. Pelicans |
|
124-108 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31. That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role. The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty.
|
04-14-24 |
Rockets -132 v. Clippers |
|
116-105 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Rockets want to finish at .500. They need to win this game to accomplish that.
The Clippers are locked into their playoff spot, which is the No. 4 seed in the West. They have nothing to play for so I doubt Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden even see the floor for the Clippers.
|
04-13-24 |
Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +102 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
102 |
19 h 35 m |
Show
|
Kyle Gibson wasn't very good in the American League and he's not very good in the National League either. Gibson is with his fourth team in the last four years. He is an ineffective journeyman pitcher whose ERA has been above 5.00 in four of the past six seasons, including 6.23 this year.
Gibson should not be a road favorite against the National League defending champion Diamondbacks.
Yet that's the way this game opened. It opened that way because Arizona is starting Ryne Nelson, who is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA.
Nelson, though, has faced the Braves and Yankees this season. The Braves have the best offense in the majors and the Yankees are in the top-10 in home runs. Now Nelson, an excellent buy low candidate, is stepping down in class as the Cardinals rank 21st in runs, 23rd in home runs and 25th in batting average.
I peg the 26-year-old Nelson to be much improved this season with added velocity to his fastball and improved secondary pitches. He was outstanding during spring training compiling a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts in his five starts.
The Diamondbacks have a far better offense than St. Louis ranking in the top-six in runs and batting average, while hitting the eighth-most homers. Gibson has surrendered four homers in 13 innings.
|
04-12-24 |
Bulls v. Wizards +2 |
Top |
129-127 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards?
Don't be. The spot sets up extremely well for Washington. The Bulls played last night in Detroit. They were intense, highly-motivated and routed the Pistons, 127-105. That victory was significant in that it clinched the No. 9 seed for Chicago and allowed the Bulls to claim home court edge against the 10th-seeded Hawks. That was what the Bulls were aiming for since that's the best they could finish during the regular season.
So this road game against the Wizards is meaningless. It's also Chicago's fourth game in six days and the Bulls will be playing without rest - at least the Bulls who Billy Donovan chooses to play. As the Bulls coach could be sitting out his key starters, or at least heavily cutting back their minutes in anticipation of the playoffs.
The Wizards are 15-65. This is their chance to at least finish their home schedule with a victory. Washington is 3-2-1 ATS in its last six home games, including upsetting the Bucks 10 days ago. (Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.)
|
04-11-24 |
Bulls -9.5 v. Pistons |
|
127-105 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, who have incentive to host the Hawks in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Bulls coach Billy Donovan ripped his team after Chicago lost, 128-117, at home to the Knicks two days ago.
Donovan knows the Bulls have to get better. Chicago draws the perfect patsy in the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA at 13-66. The Pistons are in free fall losing 13 of their last 14 games, including the past five.
The Pistons have lost their last three games by an average of 15.3 points. This is their first home game since concluding a four-game, six-day road trip that finished this past Tuesday night with a blowout loss to the 76ers.
Not helping matters for the Pistons is Cade Cunningham, their best player, missing the past four games due to knee soreness. He's questionable for this matchup.
|
04-11-24 |
Flyers v. Rangers -1.5 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Rangers have dominated this series going 9-0-1 during the past 10 meetings, including beating the Flyers the past six times.
New York is trying to win its division and won't lack motivation especially after losing to the Devils two days ago.
This is more of a fade against Philadelphia, though. The Flyers have lost eight straight games with six of the defeats occurring by multiple goals.
The Flyers have been outscored by 24 goals during their eight-game losing streak.
|
04-10-24 |
Suns v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 |
|
124-108 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 1 m |
Show
|
These two teams just played last night at Phoenix. The Clippers built a huge lead and coasted to a 105-92 win.
The 197 points scored fell 29 points below the total. That was despite the two teams combining to make 35-of-39 free throws for 90 percent. Yet we have around the same total for today's rematch in Los Angeles.
Both the Suns and Clippers have stepped up their defensive play.
The Suns have held six of their last nine opponents to 106 points or fewer. Their defensive intensity should be up following last night's embarrassment. The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard and James Harden due to injuries last night. Leonard has missed the past five games due to knee soreness. I doubt he plays. Harden is questionable.
The Clippers have held six of their last eight foes from scoring more than 110 points. The Suns have failed to break 105 points in six of their last eight games.
|
04-10-24 |
White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
6-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
18 h 59 m |
Show
|
Tanner Bibee is going to look very good pitching on Wednesday. How's that? What major league pitcher wouldn't look good going against hitters such as Robbie Grossman, Nicky Lopez, Lenny Sosa, Kevin Pillar, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado.
That's what the White Sox lineup is reduced to down their three best offensive players - Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. All three are injured.
The White Sox are averaging two runs a game and that's after scoring seven runs to beat the Guardians, 7-5, on Tuesday.
Bibee, a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen.
The White Sox have an underrated bullpen and an underrated starter pitcher going Wednesday, Erick Fedde. He's much improved since his days with the Nationals. He dominated while pitching in South Korea last season. Fedde has a 2.79 ERA in two starts this season.
The Guardians have a bottom-three offense when it comes to hitting home runs.
|
04-09-24 |
Wizards +16.5 v. Wolves |
|
121-130 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 53 m |
Show
|
The Timberwolves are tied with the Nuggets for the top spot in the Western Conference. Minnesota plays in Denver against the Nuggets on Wednesday in a huge national TV (ESPN) matchup.
But first the Timberwolves host the Wizards on Tuesday. So you'll excuse the Timberwolves if they don't bring their "A" game in an obvious look-ahead spot.
The Wizards are terrible. But only once in their last 11 games have they lost by more than 16 points.
"...These games matter to us and we're going to try to use each one, and use each day to try to get our team better and grow," Wizards interim coach Brian Keefe was quoted as saying.
Washington won't play again until Friday so a full effort should be forthcoming. The Timberwolves have only blown out one opponent by more than 16 points during their last 10 games.
|
04-09-24 |
Knicks v. Bulls +5 |
|
128-117 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
I find value in this line considering the Knicks were minus 1 1/2 against the Bulls in Chicago last Friday. The Bulls won that game, 108-100, despite the Knicks shooting better from 3-point range and getting eight more free throw attempts than Chicago.
The Knicks haven't been at the top of their game. They are 2-4 in their last six games. I don't put a whole lot of stock into their 122-109 road win against the Bucks, who have lost four in a row including losses to the Wizards, Raptors and Grizzlies.
|
04-09-24 |
Magic -3 v. Rockets |
|
106-118 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 33 m |
Show
|
Orlando is a bit banged-up, but this is a short number for the Magic to lay against a dead Rockets team.
Houston made a move this season, but ran out of gas. The Rockets have lost five in a row. Their average losing margin during this span is 14.2 points. The Rockets are eliminated now from play-in contention.
This has changed the Rockets' focus. They are now looking ahead to next season.
The Magic, however, are in full win mode trailing the reeling Bucks by only one game for the No. 2 seed in the East. The Magic are 4-1 in their last five games.
No team has a better point spread record than the Magic, who are an amazing 50-28 (64%) ATS.
|
04-09-24 |
Heat -3.5 v. Hawks |
|
117-111 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
Driven by trying to gain an automatic playoff berth and revenge, Miami should cover this short road number.
The Heat are in a dogfight for the sixth position in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They've played better on the road than at home winning 23 of their 40 away games.
Miami lost to Atlanta in the team's last meeting on Jan. 19 in Miami. The Hawks hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left to win, 109-108.
The Hawks already know their playoff seeding, which will be ninth or 10th. That means involvement in the play-in round.
Atlanta hasn't been in good form returning home after consecutive road losses to the Mavericks, 109-95, and Nuggets, 142-110.
Trae Young remains out for Atlanta.
|
04-09-24 |
Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
102-120 |
Loss |
-115 |
19 h 57 m |
Show
|
It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness.
Regardless of his status, though, this is too many points for the 76ers to be laying this late in the season when they carry a high fatigue rating and need to be careful in doling out minutes to their starters.
It's the 76ers' third game in four days and fourth matchup in six days.
The 76ers nearly were upset by the Spurs in their last game this past Sunday, needing overtime to win.
This is Philadelphia's first home game in a week having played its last three games on the road.
Joel Embiid is questionable after missing the Spurs game. If he does suit up, the 76ers are likely to be careful in monitoring his minutes. Same with Tyrese Maxey, who scored 52 points against the Spurs, but logged 54 minutes. The 76ers could get Tobias Harris and Kyle Lowry back, but aren't expected to have De'Anthony Melton and Robert Covington.
|
04-08-24 |
Golden Knights +106 v. Canucks |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 28 m |
Show
|
Vancouver is leading the Pacific Division. But the Canucks have been struggling since losing their top goalie, Thatcher Demko, to a lower body injury.
The Canucks are 2-4 in their last six games and 5-6 in their past 11 games. None of the victories during this span have been against a playoff team.
The Golden Knights are the best team the Canucks have played in this time frame. Las Vegas is going to be highly motivated after shockingly blowing a 4-1 lead to Arizona in a stunning, 7-4, road loss to the Coyotes this past Friday. The Golden Knights had the weekend to stew about that defeat.
That loss snapped a three-game Golden Knights' win streak. Las Vegas is 6-2 in its last eight games.
The Golden Knights will get a boost, too, with Tomas Hertl in the lineup for the first time since he was acquired from the Sharks a month ago. He had been out with a knee injury.
Las Vegas has scored four or more goals in four of its last five games. The Canucks have allowed 13 goals in their last three games. There's a huge drop-off from Thatcher to backups Casey DeSmith or Arturs Silovs.
|
04-08-24 |
Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
60-75 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut.
The Boilermakers have allowed an average of only 61.2 points in regulation during their seven games, spanning the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
Connecticut has gone Under in nine of its last 10 games, including the past six. The Huskies have held seven of their last nine foes to 60 points or fewer.
So it's no surprise early money has come on the Under. The Under is helped, too, by Connecticut's slow pace and the game being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is known for being a tough venue for shooters.
Zach Edey has been dominant scoring inside for Purdue. But the 7-foot-4 Edey will face his biggest challenge going against 7-2 Donovan Clingan. Both are excellent defenders. Clingan ranked eighth in the nation in blocked shots per game.
|
04-08-24 |
Brewers v. Reds -104 |
|
8-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
Aaron Ashby is set to make his first big league appearance in two years. He's facing the Reds in Cincinnati. I have little confidence in Ashby and I don't trust a makeshift Brewers bullpen that is minus their star closer, Devin Williams. The Brewers have allowed 21 runs during their last four games. Ashby has a 5.19 career ERA vs the Reds in three appearances, including one start. Cincinnati has scored four or more runs in seven of its nine games. The Reds have produced six or more runs in five of those nine games. The Reds are starting Graham Aschcroft, who I rate higher than Ashby.
|
04-07-24 |
Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 222.5 |
Top |
113-105 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Yes, these teams have firepower. But both teams have been playing excellent defense lately. Their defenses are underrated. The Pelicans are fourth in defensive field goal percentage, while the Suns rank seventh in the category.
New Orleans is averaging only 105.4 points in its last five games. The Pelicans are really missing Brandon Ingram, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. He remains out with a knee injury.
The Suns have scored 106 points or below in five of their past seven games. But if you discount the 128 points they surrendered to the Thunder, the Suns are giving up an average of just 101 points in their last six games.
The teams just met six days ago with Phoenix winning, 124-111. I'm expecting far fewer points in this quick rematch. The Pelicans are in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row with the last one being an embarrassing, 111-109, home loss to the Spurs two days ago. An intense defensive effort should be forthcoming from them.
|
04-07-24 |
White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
The White Sox didn't have much firepower entering the season and now they are without their two best offensive players with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez both on the injured list.
So it's not a major surprise the White Sox have the worst offense in the majors scoring only 13 runs in eight games.
A rare bright spot for the White Sox is Garrett Crochet, who has been outstanding in his two starts this season with a 1.38 ERA going against the Braves and Tigers. Crochet has 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.
Kansas City starter Alec Marsh was strong against the Orioles in his first start this season winning, 4-1. He has a career 2.08 ERA vs the White Sox in 4 1/3 innings.
|
04-06-24 |
Red Sox v. Angels -110 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 30 m |
Show
|
I'm looking for the Angels to bounce back and beat Boston after losing to the Red Sox last night. Trevor Story was injured in that game. That could bother the Red Sox in this matchup. It certainly hurts their middle infield situation.
I'm high on Angels starter Reid Detmers. He was sharp in his first outing this season holding the Orioles, a top-eight offense, to one run on two hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. The Angels won that game, 4-1.
Boston starter Garrett Whitlock had a 5.15 ERA last season. He's not a big innings guy and the Red Sox bullpen already is beginning to pile up innings.
|
04-06-24 |
Hawks v. Nuggets -12 |
Top |
110-142 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, are going for No. 1 seeding in the West trailing the Timberwolves by half-a-game for that distinction. Denver won't play again until Tuesday. That should ensure a strong, all-out effort especially since the Nuggets are off a 102-100 loss to the Clippers on Thursday. Denver's previous loss was to the Timberwolves at home eight days ago. The Nuggets followed that defeat by burying the Cavaliers at home by 29 points.
The Hawks haven't beaten the Nuggets in Denver since 2019.
|
04-05-24 |
Kings +9.5 v. Celtics |
Top |
100-101 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night.
But this is a great spot to back the Kings - and yes it's against the Celtics.
This is Boston's first game since clinching home-court throughout the playoffs. The Celitcs will talk about staying motivated, but they can't help relaxing and taking their foot off the gas now that their regular season goal has been achieved.
Boston's priority is to be cautious with its stars. No reason to risk injury, or burn any of them out, now that the rest of the regular season has become meaningless.
The Kings are an underrated adversary.
Even with that defeat to the Knicks, the Kings are 21-17 on the road. They are trying to chase down the Pelicans and Suns for the sixth playoff spot in the West.
Sacramento has quietly, below the radar, picked up its defense holding 11 of its last 13 opponents to 109 or fewer points. During their last 16 games, the Kings have lost by more than eight points just twice.
|
04-04-24 |
76ers v. Heat -2.5 |
Top |
109-105 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue.
Erik Spoelstra has Miami peaking again at the right time. The Heat have won four of their last five games, including the past three. The Heat should be pointing to this matchup as they go on the road following this game for their next three games facing the Rockets, Pacers and Hawks.
Terry Rozier has been hot for Miami averaging 27.6 points in his last three games. The Heat's rotation gets a boost with the return of Kevin Love. The 76ers have Embiid back, but may be minus two important cogs, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Both are questionable.
|
04-03-24 |
Canucks v. Coyotes +130 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Coyotes have a winning record at Mullett Arena. They've won five of their last seven home games.
Vancouver is not in good form. The Canucks have lost three of their last four games, including a bad, 6-3, road loss to the Golden Knights last night.
Third-string goalie Arturs Silovs is expected to be in net for the Canucks today. This would only be his second NHL start of the season. Arizona has scored 19 goals in its last three games.
|
04-03-24 |
Pistons +11.5 v. Hawks |
Top |
113-121 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup.
But first the Hawks need to take care of business at home against the lowly Pistons.
This is Atlanta's fifth game in eight days. The Hawks remain without superstar Trae Young. So I find value in a point spread this high to back Detroit.
The Pistons are much more respectable with Cade Cunningham in the lineup. He's averaging 22.7 points and 7.5 assists.
Detroit has a winning ATS mark in its last eight road games and has played the Hawks tough during its two meetings this season, losing by six points each time.
|
04-02-24 |
Red Sox -144 v. A's |
|
5-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
We knew the A's were going to be terrible this season and they certainly have lived up to expectations. The 1-4 A's have been outscored, 38-11. They have committed more errors with 13 than they have scored runs.
If the price isn't too high, the A's are an auto-fade. I can live with this price in a pitching matchup of Brayan Bello vs washed-up 33-year-old Alex Wood.
The Red Sox have underrated starting pitching and Bello is one reason for that. He looked good in his first start opening day, holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits in five innings in a 6-4 victory.
Wood has a 16.20 ERA after giving up six runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in his first start this season, an 8-0 loss to the Guardians .He has never beaten the Red Sox.
|
04-02-24 |
Lakers v. Raptors +12.5 |
|
128-111 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
Yeah, I know. It's tough to get behind the Raptors, losers of 13 in a row. But the Lakers carry a high fatigue rating, are in a letdown spot, the Raptors could get key players back and have a strong history against the Lakers. Maybe it's because of LeBron James. But the Raptors get up for the Lakers. They've beaten them seven of the last nine times in Toronto. The Lakers barely beat the Raptors in the first meeting. LA won, 132-131, at home on Jan. 9. There's a good possibility the Raptors get back both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for this game. They've been out for personal reasons. This is the Lakers' fifth road game in eight days. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and conclude their road trip with a game tomorrow against the Wizards.
|
04-01-24 |
Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
3-8 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
A total that opens below 9 in a Dodgers game is going to pique my interest. This is one of those games.
Los Angeles has a dominant offense and it hasn't disappointed. The Dodgers are averaging 6.6 runs in their six games. They have scored five or more runs in every game.
Here the home Dodgers draw Keaton Winn, who has pitched fewer than 43 innings in the major leagues. The Dodgers are familiar with Winn, though. They faced him late last season and got to him for six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Winn had a 4.68 ERA last year.
The Giants are giving up seven runs per game. Their middle relief pitching and fielding don't look up to par.
San Francisco, though, averaged 6.2 runs during its four games against the Padres. The Giants draw James Paxton, who is in LA's rotation because of injuries to Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan. The 35-year-old Paxton had a 4.50 ERA last season.
|
04-01-24 |
Guardians -108 v. Mariners |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
I'll back Cleveland at around a pick price against Seattle in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie vs Emerson Hancock.
I have McKenzie ranked two tiers higher than Hancock.
McKenzie had a 2.96 ERA two seasons ago showing tremendous promise. However, he made only four starts because of injuries last season. McKenzie enters this year healthy. He had a much better spring training than Hancock with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings compared to Hancock's 10.24 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Hancock had a 4.50 ERA last year.
The Guardians aren't going to set any power records, but the Mariners averaged only 2.5 runs while batting .178 in four games against the Red Sox to open the season. Seattle hitters struck out 45 times in the four-game series.
|
04-01-24 |
Nets v. Pacers OVER 227 |
|
111-133 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
Tyrese Haliburton is back on his game. That makes the Pacers dangerous - and high-scoring. Indiana is the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA at 122.7 points a game. The Pacers have reached that season average in seven of their last 10 games. The Nets are a mediocre defensive team and the Pacers have been idle since Friday. So I'm expecting a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nets only managed 104 points against the Lakers in their last game. But they scored 125 and 112 points in regulation, respectively, during their previous two games. They are going against an Indiana defense that ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring defense and last in defensive field goal percentage.
|
03-31-24 |
Bulls +8 v. Wolves |
Top |
109-101 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 26 m |
Show
|
The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset.
The Timberwolves return home fat and happy after an impressive, 111-98, road win against the defending champion Nuggets Friday night.
The Bulls enter this matchup off an embarrassing, 125-108, road loss to the Nets Friday night.
Chicago defeated Minnesota earlier in the season. The Bulls can do it again. Even with that loss to the Nets, the Bulls are 9-5 SU and ATS in their last 14 away games.
The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS the past five times they have been favored by eight or more points. There's a chance, too, Minnesota could be minus Rudy Gobbert and Anthony Edwards. Both are questionable with injuries.
|
03-31-24 |
Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 9 |
|
4-5 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Dodgers scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they've taken right where they left off. LA is averaging 6.8 runs in its five games. The Dodgers have scored at least five runs in each game.
LA should continue its high-scoring ways facing Steven Matz, who was 4-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 25 appearances last season.
The Cardinals draw Gavin Stone, who struggled with a 9.00 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts, for the Dodgers last year. Supposedly he should be improved having added a couple of pitches. But Stone might not have even made the starting rotation if Emmet Sheehan didn't suffer shoulder soreness.
Weather could be a rare factor for this Dodgers home game as rain is expected. Rain delays could bring in middle relievers earlier than expected.
|
03-31-24 |
Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 |
|
101-130 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 27 m |
Show
|
The Cavaliers rank fifth defensively in the NBA. Denver ranks seventh defensively. Both teams rate in the bottom-seven in pace. The Nuggets are likely to be missing their second-leading scorer, Jamal Murray. He's been out the last four games with a sore knee.
The defensive intensity should be way up as Denver has lost two in a row - both at home - and has revenge while the Cavaliers are 2-4 in their last six games.
Obviously missing Murray's 20.9 point scoring average, the Nuggets are averaging just 97.5 points in their past two games.
The Cavaliers are averaging only 103.6 points during their last six games.
|
03-30-24 |
Bucks -3.5 v. Hawks |
|
122-113 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Hawks still may not have come down to Earth after beating the Celtics in overtime as a 16-point 'dog two days ago. Atlanta is fat and happy with four consecutive victories.
However, this marks Atlanta's fourth game in six days and third in four days. The Hawks remain without a number of important players, including Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Saddiq Bey.
The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive losses to the Pelicans and Lakers. Milwaukee won't have Damian Lillard, but they will have extreme motivation and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That will be enough for them to cover this number.
|
03-30-24 |
Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 |
Top |
52-77 |
Loss |
-108 |
32 h 7 m |
Show
|
How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent.
Illinois ranks 12th in the nation in scoring and second in offensive efficiency. Connecticut is strong defensively, but not as good as Iowa State.
There hasn't been any stopping Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. He's averaging 30.2 points in his last seven games, the hottest player in the country. Connecticut has even a better offense than Illinois in terms of efficiency ranking No. 1 in the country. The Huskies are going to get their points against an Illinois defense that ranks below average rating 214th in scoring defense and 259th in 3-point defense.
|
03-30-24 |
Twins -118 v. Royals |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
The Royals should be much improved this season, but the Twins are superior and the price is short enough to get involved backing Minnesota. Kansas City has some promising hitters. The Twins have proven hitters and a much more reliable bullpen even with Jhoan Duran out.
Oh, yes, the Twins hold a huge starting pitcher edge with Joe Ryan facing Seth Lugo.
Ryan is in my second tier of top American League pitchers, way above Lugo. Ryan has dominated the Royals in his career, too, with a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA.
The Twins won against Cole Ragans, a much better pitcher than Lugo, in the series opener. They can certainly win against Lugo.
|
03-29-24 |
Duke +4 v. Houston |
|
54-51 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 24 m |
Show
|
Betting on ACC teams during the NCAA Tournament has been a gold mine. ACC teams are 9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS with Duke contributing a 2-0 SU and ATS mark. The Blue Devils are strong both on offense and defense. The same can't be said for Houston. The Cougars may have the best defense in the country, but their offense was below average. It ranked 165th in scoring, 240th in field goal percentage and 298th in free throw percentage. Duke has a top-20 defense going by Ken Pom's advanced metrics and averages six points more per game than Houston. The Blue Devils have an elite big man, Kyle Filipowski, and three excellent guards. Houston can't match that offensively. While the Blue Devils destroyed James Madison, 93-55, in the second round, Houston barely survived. The Cougars needed overtime to slip past Texas A&M after blowing a 13-point lead with under four minutes to play in regulation.
|
03-29-24 |
Lakers v. Pacers -3 |
Top |
90-109 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed.
There were 31 fouls called on the Pacers in that game. The Lakers made 38 of 43 free throws. Only 14 fouls were whistled against the Lakers. The Pacers shot just 16 free throws, which were 27 fewer than the Lakers!
The Pacers are doubly mad after losing by 26 points to the Bulls on the road this past Wednesday. They are home now and rested having been idle the past two days.
The Lakers are very much in a situational disadvantage and not just because of the short revenge angle. This marks LA's third game in four days and fourth in six days. It's also the Lakers' third consecutive road game.
There's also the possibility of LeBron James not playing. He's questionable with a sore ankle.
|
03-28-24 |
Illinois v. Iowa State -125 |
Top |
72-69 |
Loss |
-125 |
73 h 11 m |
Show
|
Illinois already has succeeded in winning more games in the NCAA Tournament, with two victories, than it did during the previous three seasons it was in the tournament.
But I don't see the Illini reaching three wins in their Thursday East Regional semifinal matchup against Iowa State.
Defense trumps offense. Illinois ranks 12th in scoring, but 214th defensively and 259th in 3-point defense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has carried Illinois in the tournament averaging 31.6 points.
Iowa State averages a respectable 75.7 points a game, but has the fifth-ranked defense in the country. If you judge by Ken Pom's rating then the Cyclones are the best defensive team. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger may be the best defensive coach in the nation. He's going to be very dangerous given extra preparation time.
Look for the Cyclones to slow down and frustrate Shannon and the Illini with how well they double-team and rotate their defense. Iowa State has scoring depth. The Illini heavily rely on Shannon.
Illinois did well to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Illini, though, were fortunate to have avoided Purdue and Michigan State. They beat Ohio State, which didn't make the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Those last two teams lost by double-digits in their first-round NCAA Tourney games.
Iowa State won the Big 12 Conference Tournament beating Houston, the No. 2 ranked team in the country, 69-41, in the finals. The Cyclones also own victories Baylor and BYU during the past three weeks. I consider the Big 12 to be the toughest conference in the country.
|
03-27-24 |
Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 |
Top |
104-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Suns are trying to finish as a top-six team in the West while the Nuggets have revenge for a home loss to the Suns three weeks ago.
The ante is raised for the Suns after they got caught looking ahead to this matchup, losing 104-102 to the Spurs this past Monday. Phoenix has been playing better defense lately than its average ratings. The Suns have given up 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games.
The Nuggets are allowing only 103.8 points during their last seven games.
Both Bradley Beal and Jamal Murray are questionable with injuries. Beal is Phoenix's third-leading scorer while Murray ranks No. 2 in scoring for Denver.
|
03-27-24 |
Blazers +10.5 v. Hawks |
|
106-120 |
Loss |
-109 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a huge flat spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are off their finest win of the season, coming from 30 points down to upset the Celtics, 120-118, two days ago. Now the Hawks host the lowly Trail Blazers. After this game, the Hawks host the Celitcs on Thursday and Bucks on Saturday. So you can't blame the Hawks for not getting fully motivated for this matchup even though it's a revenge game. The Trail Blazers defeated Atlanta, 106-102, two weeks ago. Portland is bad, but capable of staying within single digits against a team unlikely to play their "A" game. Just two games ago, the Trail Blazers threw a scare into the world champion Nuggets before losing by only three points.
|
03-26-24 |
Golden Knights v. Predators -139 |
Top |
4-5 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 42 m |
Show
|
Nashville is a blistering 15-2 in its last 17 games with five consecutive victories. The Predators are riding a franchise-record 17-game point streak.
The Predators are home and have had ample rest and preparation time. Their last game was this past Saturday in Nashville.
Las Vegas has won three in a row, but played bad offenses during this stretch and have a high fatigue rating. The Golden Knights also could be starting third-string goalie Jiri Patera.
This is the Golden Knights' fourth game in six days and second in two nights. Their three straight victories have been against the Blues (26th in scoring), Blue Jackets (31st in scoring) and Kraken (29th in scoring).
The last time Las Vegas played a strong offensive team was four games ago in a 5-3 home loss to the Lightning.
The Golden Knights just got through nipping the Blues on the road, 2-1, in overtime Monday night. Logan Thompson was outstanding in goal for Las Vegas.
Las Vegas, though, brought up Patera this past Sunday with the expectation that he likely would be in net for this game since Thompson played last night and Adin Hill was injured this past Saturday. Patera has by far the highest goals against average of Las Vegas' three goalies at 3.75. Patera has made five appearances this season and has a 1-3 record.
The Predators rank 12th in scoring and have allowed only five goals during their past five games.
|
03-25-24 |
Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 |
Top |
133-116 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
The Clippers are 22-12 at home, but coming off an embarrassing 14-point loss to the 76ers in LA on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are a much better defensive team than the Pacers and won't lack motivation for this matchup following that defeat. Indiana played, too, yesterday at night where it lost a wild, 150-145, game to the Lakers in LA. The Pacers gave it a great effort trailing by 17 points entering the fourth quarter. That game finished much later than the Clippers game did. The Pacers are 2-10 when playing without rest. They have lost the past four times playing the Clippers in LA losing all of those games by six or more points. So this is a bad spot and bad opponent for Indiana.
|