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Stephen Nover ALL Sports Sides Picks
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
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Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation - when it comes to the regular season. Kershaw just isn't the same pitcher in the World Series where he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. All together, Kershaw has made 35 postseason appearances and has a losing record with a 4.31 ERA. Kershaw also has been dealing with back problems. Kershaw is going to have to deal with the hottest power hitter in the playoffs, Randy Arozarena. He's smacked seven homers in 55 postseason at bats. So there's an excellent chance Tampa Bay can keep this game within one run, if not win outright. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Rays would be 11-3 in the playoffs. LA would be 4-5 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The teams were idle on Monday. The Rays are 9-2 following an off day. Tampa Bay is pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's prone to the long ball, but is a huge strikeout pitcher. He struck out 91 batters in 57 1/3 innings during the regular season and has fanned 25 in 19 1/3 postseason innings.
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| 10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
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If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12. |
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| 10-18-20 | Bengals +9.5 v. Colts | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Bengals are 10-4 ATS as road 'dogs and have shown marked improvement this season. Joe Burrow is living up to his hype and status as the No. 1 overall draft pick. He has solid skill position help and Cincinnati's offensive line is getting better. The Colts defense surrendered 32 points to the Browns last week despite Baker Mayfield playing at less than 100 percent and Cleveland missing Nick Chubb. Indy's defense isn't the same without star linebacker Darius Leonard, who is doubtful to play here. Cincinnati's defense is another facet that has improved. The Bengals sunk a lot of money into upgrading their defense. They finally got back their best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, last week. The Colts don't have the offense to lay this big of a number. The Colts rank second-to-last in yards per rush at 3.6 per carry. Yet the Colts have to remain a ground-based, two-wide receiver, two-tight end offense because of wide receiver injuries and the steep decline of Philip Rivers, who has become one of the least effective starting QB's in the league.
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| 10-18-20 | Ravens -7.5 v. Eagles | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
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The Eagles winning the Super Bowl three years ago has become a distant memory. The reality is they have an extremely banged-up offensive line, depleted receiving corps and a defense that gives up the 10th-most points a game with a leaky secondary that would be made worse if Darius Slay can't play due to a concussion. The Ravens don't have a dominant pass rusher. But their defense is opportunistic and well-coached. Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 10 takeaways. The Ravens will try to exploit the Eagles' offensive line, which will be down their three best linemen if Lane Johnson can't play, with an assorted array of blizes and schemes. Carson Wentz has already been sacked 19 times and thrown nine interceptions. I see Baltimore holding all the advantages here. The Eagles won't even hold much off a home field edge with just 7,500 fans allowed into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. |
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| 10-18-20 | Texans +4 v. Titans | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
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The Texans are on the upswing following a much needed coaching change going from toxic Bill O'Brien to popular Romeo Crennel. The Texans responded to the move by getting their first victory, rolling past Jacksonville by 16 points last week. Houston played the hardest September schedule of any team. But now that portion of the schedule is finished and the Texans have their confidence and morale up. The Texans draw Tennessee in a vulnerable spot. The shorthanded Titans are fat and happy after rolling past the Bills, 42-16, this past Tuesday. So this is a very short week for Tennessee, which isn't up to full strength and is dealing with the distraction about its supposed lack of adherence to pandemic protocols. The Titans are 4-0, but their first three victories came by a combined six points all stemming from game-winning field goals that occurred with less than two minutes left. Tennessee is a more well-rounded team than Houston. But the Texans have the better quarterback and the two best defensive players in J.J. Watt and linebacker Zach Cunningham. If the Texans are going to get back into the AFC South Division race they need to win this game. They are the team with the greater urgency.
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| 10-17-20 | UMass v. Georgia Southern -31 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
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UMass probably was doing college football a favor by electing to cancel its season. The Minutemen would not be missed. They are terrible. However, UMass decided to opt back in. That was just three weeks ago. You can imagine how little preparation time the Minutemen have. This game wasn't even scheduled until Oct. 8. Georgia Southern had a hole in its schedule because coronavirus forced postponement of their original opponent, far-stronger Appalachian State. So Georgia Southern won't lose a beat. The Eagles already have played three games. UMass barely has a depth chart. The Minutemen are likely to go with Mike Fallon at QB. He's thrown for 40 years during his four years with the program. Georgia Southern should bury UMass with its triple-option attack. The Eagles are the fourth-highest rushing team in the country. UMass played Army last season. That was the one foe that also ran a triple-option offense. Army buried the Minutemen, 63-7.
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| 10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
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Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions. |
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| 10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
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Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.. |
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| 10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
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The Braves have captured the first two games of this NLCS matchup. But this sets up to be the Dodgers' spot. Given Clayton Kershaw's uncertain status following a flare-up of back trouble, Julio Urias might be LA's most reliable pitcher. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during the regular season. He's followed that up by being unscored upon in eight innings of postseason work striking out 11 while issuing just a single walk. Urias is a blazing 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during his last three appearances spanning 14 innings. Atlanta has some vulnerability when you get past its first couple of starters. That's the case here with Kyle Wright getting the start. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 ratio during the regular season. Wright pitched much better in his one playoff appearance shutting out the Marlins in six innings of work. The Dodgers aren't the Marlins. No team scored more runs and hit more homers than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have professional hitters who can take a walk if need be. Wright lacks good control as evidenced by his walking 24 batters in 38 innings.
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| 10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
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Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager. |
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| 10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 27 m | Show | |
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The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite.
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| 10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show | |
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The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase. |
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| 10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
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The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS.
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| 10-10-20 | Charlotte v. North Texas +3 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
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North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense.
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| 10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
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Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. |
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| 10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
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Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
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| 10-06-20 | Aces +8.5 v. Storm | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
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Down 0-2 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series, Las Vegas is in a must-win spot. Can the Aces remain alive? I don't know. I do know this is the most points they've gotten all season and I'm going to back them at this high number. Seattle has defeated Las Vegas by 13 points in each of the first two games. The Storm accomplished this by shooting 50 and 57 percent, respectively, from the floor. Las Vegas is a top-three defensive team. Seattle shot 47 percent from the field in the regular season. So I think the Storm's shooting percentage is coming down. The Aces outscored Seattle, 46-44, in the paint during Sunday's Game 2. The Storm, though, got to shoot 10 more free throws than Las Vegas. Maybe the free throw disparity won't be so great for this matchup especially after Aces coach Bill Laimbeer griped about it. Seattle is much deeper than Las Vegas. The Aces have had two games now to figure out they need to play at a slow pace and look to score inside instead of trying to trade baskets at a fast pace against Seattle. The Aces have league MVP A'ja Wilson. Even Laimbeer, who I consider a mediocre coach at best, should be able to figure that out. Who knows, maybe then the Aces could get Breanna Stewart in foul trouble. The Aces are 7-1 ATS following a loss and 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times playing on one day's rest.
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| 10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
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Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests. |
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| 10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +7 | 31-23 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 57 m | Show | |
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Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores. |
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| 10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 36 h 43 m | Show | |
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The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage.
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| 10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs -6.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
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The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either.
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| 10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
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I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
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| 10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -6.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
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Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points.
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| 10-02-20 | Storm -5 v. Aces | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 37 h 6 m | Show | |
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These were the two best teams in the WNBA this season so it's only fitting they meet in the championship series. But I believe Seattle has more going. The Storm have far more championship series experience than the Aces. Most of their players were on Seattle's 2018 WNBA championship squad. Las Vegas doesn't have that big-game pedigree. Seattle looked great in its last two games in sweeping its semifinal series against Minnesota that concluded this past Sunday. Las Vegas, on the other hand, had a full five-game grind-out semifinal series against Connecticut that wasn't decided until this past Tuesday with the Aces nipping the Sun, 66-63. The Aces trailed 2-1 in that series. The Aces suffered a key injury during that semifinal series losing Sixth Woman of the Year award winner Dearica Hamby with a knee injury. She's one of Las Vegas' top defenders. The Aces can only beat Seattle, the league's No. 2 scoring team, by playing outstanding defense. Seattle bench player Sami Whitcomb left the bubble so she's out of the series, too. But Hamby's loss is much more severe for Las Vegas. The Aces received no points from their bench in their last game against the Sun. Their three reserves combined to produce zero points and one assist while committing six turnovers and five fouls in a combined 24 minutes. Hamby averaged 25 minutes in the playoffs with a season average of 13 points and seven rebounds per game. The Storm have covered 23 of the last 34 times they've been favored. I believe they are the better team - as does the linemaker - and the situation is favorable to them. |
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| 10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
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In Yu we trust. The Cubs are in must-win mode and going with their top pitcher, Yu Darvish. He had a Cy Young Award-type season going 8-3 in 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA. Darvish has been excellent for the Cubs now for the last 1 1/2 years posting a 2.40 ERA since last season's All-Star Game. Darvish could catch a big break if the Marlins' most dangerous hitter, Starling Marte, can't play after he got hit in the hand with a pitch on Wednesday. The Marlins are going with rookie Sixto Sanchez, who has a high ceiling but perhaps hit a rookie wall during his final two regular season starts when he gave up nine runs in seven innings.
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| 10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good. |
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| 09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
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Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. |
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| 09-30-20 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
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The Padres are less than thrilled starting Chris Paddack in this series opener. They wanted to go with Dinelson Lamet, but he left his last start this past Friday with tightness in his biceps. San Diego is worried about Paddack's lack of consistency. They have good reason to feel this way since Paddack has surrendered four or more runs while not reaching the sixth inning in four of his last eight starts. The Cardinals are starting Kwang Hyun Kim instead of ace Jack Flaherty. I understand the thinking behind this. Kim is a lefty, who the Padres have never faced. The Padres are 27-13 against righthanders, but just 10-10 versus southpaws. Kim is no slouch either going 3-0 this season with a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Padres are averaging 3.7 runs in their last nine games. Paddack could be on or off. So I'm going to take the extra half-run and lay juice believing this has the makings of a 4-3 type game.
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| 09-29-20 | Sun +4 v. Aces | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
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I didn't like Bill Laimbeer as a player and I don't like him as a coach. Las Vegas may have better talent than Connecticut. The Aces have the league's MVP, A'ja Wilson. But I don't trust Laimbeer, nor the Aces, to win this deciding Game 5 of this WNBA semifinal. The Aces had to go all out this past Sunday to win Game 4 and force this deciding matchup. Connecticut didn't play a good game and Angel McCoughtry had the game of her life for Las Vegas shooting 13-for-22 from the floor for 29 points. I expect the Sun to play much better and don't believe McCoughtry can duplicate her Game 4 performance. She averaged 14.4 points during the regular season. Connecticut has covered eight of the last nine times following a loss. Las Vegas had all but one of its starters play more than 33 minutes on Sunday. Wilson played the entire game except for the final 26 seconds. The Aces had a strong bench during the regular season, but that's been considerably weakened without injured two-time Sixth Woman of the Year Dearica Hamby.
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| 09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
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Normally the Blue Jays would go with their top pitcher, Hyun Jin Ryu, in Game 1 of this playoff series. But Ryu is coming off a 100-pitch game against the Yankees this past Thursday. So Toronto doesn't want to use Ryu on only three day's rest. Instead the Blue Jays are going with Matt Shoemaker, who has pitched just three innings since Aug. 21 because of right shoulder injury. Shoemaker has a 4.71 ERA and figures to be rusty. He last pitched eight days ago. Tampa Bay is extremely tough at Tropicana Park. The Rays have won 40 of the last 53 times there for 75 percent. Tampa Bay is hot, too, going 9-2 in its past 11 games. Blake Snell gets the call for the Rays. Snell won the Cy Young Award three seasons ago and has been a solid 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA this season. He has a career 2.81 ERA versus Toronto in 13 starts. |
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| 09-28-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Stars | 2-0 | Win | 165 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
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I give a lot of credit to Dallas. Few, if anybody, expected the Stars to reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. I had the Stars at a nice plus price in their Game 5 double-overtime victory this past Saturday. The teams played that game without rest. Now they've had one day in between games. That's enough for the Lightning to end this series. Tampa Bay has defeated Dallas in eight of the last 11 meetings. Since Game 2, the Lightning have outplayed the Stars throughout much of the series. Tampa Bay has won 41 of the last 53 times when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Lightning also are a perfect 6-0 following a loss in the playoffs. The Stars have shown a lot of toughness and resilience especially having to go with backup goalie Anton Khudobin, who has been far better than expected in this series. But time has run out on Dallas and Khudobin. I see the Lightning ending the series with a multiple goal victory. |
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| 09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 52 m | Show | |
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Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal. |
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| 09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show | |
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Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies. |
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| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
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Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat. |
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| 09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +4 | 36-9 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 45 m | Show | |
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The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation. |
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| 09-27-20 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns | 20-34 | Loss | -117 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
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Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog. |
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| 09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
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Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up.
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| 09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
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SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again.
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| 09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +3 | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
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I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football. |
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| 09-24-20 | Aces -5 v. Sun | 68-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
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Having not played in a week, Las Vegas was ambushed, 87-62, by Connecticut in the opening game of this semifinal series. Back to their normal routine two days later in Game 2, the Aces defeated the Sun, 83-75, this past Tuesday. Connecticut had no answer for league MVP A'ja Wilson, who scored 29 points and blocked seven shots. Worse, the Sun lost their best all-around player, Alyssa Thomas, to an arm injury. Thomas leads Connecticut in assists and was second on the team in scoring and rebounding during the postseason. She could be the Sun's most indispensable player. She's not expected to play. The Aces are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day's rest. They are the superior team, they are back to a normal routine and they draw the Sun minus their best all-around player.
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| 09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
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The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break. |
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| 09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
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If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential. |
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| 09-22-20 | Sun v. Aces -5 | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
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Either Las Vegas or Seattle is the best team in the WNBA. But a funny thing happened to the Aces on their way to the WNBA Finals: They got ambushed by Connecticut in Game 1 of their semifinal series. This wasn't just an upset by the Sun, but a huge butt-kicking. Las Vegas lost in embarrassing fashion, 87-62, as 6-point favorites. The Aces had been idle for a week. They came into that Game 1 on Sunday overconfident based on their 18-4 regular season record and plenty rusty. It showed. I don't expect that to be the case again. The Aces should assert their superiority led by league MVP A'ja Wilson. Las Vegas has not lost two in a row all season. The Aces are 8-1 ATS when playing with one day's rest. Jasmine Thomas shot lights out for the Sun in that opening series game scoring 31 points on 13 of 18 shooting from the field. Thomas averaged 10.2 points during the regular season. Afterward Wilson was quoted as saying the Aces needed to get slapped in the face like that and "...The best thing about this loss is there's a lot of things we can control, and that's what we're going to do." |
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| 09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
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Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact. |
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| 09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
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The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs. |
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| 09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot. |
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| 09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
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The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games.
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| 09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
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Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
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| 09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +16.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
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Louisiana Lafayette cracked The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1943 after upsetting Iowa State, 31-14, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs. That's heady stuff. But it also puts the Cajuns in a tough spot this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia State. The Panthers are respectable having gone to a bowl two of the last three years under coach Shawn Elliott. They opened with a victory against Tennessee of the SEC last season on their way to a winning record. The Panthers have 16 starters back. Not to diminish the Cajuns' huge upset of the Cyclones, but they did score touchdowns on a 95-yard kickoff return and 83-yard punt return.
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| 09-19-20 | Syracuse +21 v. Pittsburgh | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
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I don't want to overreact to these team's opening games. Pittsburgh destroyed Austin Peay while Syracuse got buried in the fourth quarter by North Carolina. But I do keep in mind that Austin Peay isn't a Division I team while North Carolina is a top-25 team. So Pittsburgh definitely is stepping up in class. I don't trust Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi to cover a big margin because I'm never sold on his offenses and I'm not a fan of Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. The Panthers also have a bad record as home chalk - 8-19 ATS the past 27 times in that role. I recall last September when Pittsburgh hosted Delaware. The Panthers were 27 1/2-point favorites. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Panthers to eke out a 17-14 victory. I expect Syracuse to play a full four quarters, something it didn't against North Carolina. The Orangemen were hanging in through three quarters in that matchup before the game got out of hand. |
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| 09-18-20 | Padres v. Mariners +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
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On the surface, the oddsmaker seems justified making the Padres this big of a road favorite against a bad team in a pitching matchup of righty Chris Paddack versus lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was a terrible pitcher last year and has a 5.35 ERA this season. But there are factors pointing to the Mariners hanging in if not winning outright. Seattle is home where they are an above .500 team. The Mariners have won seven of the last eight times when going against a righty starter. Paddack left his most recent start because he suffered an ankle injury. Paddack may not be 100 percent. He also is not pitching as well as he did earlier in the season. Paddack has yielded five earned runs in his last 6 2/3 innings. Kikuchi isn't as bad as he was last season when he was introduced to the major leagues. His velocity is higher this season and he's cut way back on giving up homers. He also has 39 strikeouts in 37 innings. Kikuchi defeated the Padres, 8-3, in San Diego on Aug. 27 The Padres are 24-11 against righthanded starting pitching, but just 8-8 when facing lefty starters. |
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| 09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
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Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps. |
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| 09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
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Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe. |
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| 09-17-20 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
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The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses. |
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| 09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
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An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline.
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| 09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
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The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. |
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| 09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -104 | 104 h 16 m | Show | |
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No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
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| 09-13-20 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show | |
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There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games. |
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| 09-13-20 | Colts v. Jaguars +9.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 27 m | Show | |
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You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
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| 09-12-20 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Stars | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
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Dallas leads this Western Conference Finals series 2-1. But the Stars aren't the better team. Las Vegas would have the series lead if Dallas backup goalie Anton Khudobin didn't come up with the game of his life stopping 38 of 40 shots in the Stars' 3-2 overtime victory on Thursday. The Golden Knights have dangerous scoring capability with all four of their lines. They know the importance of jumping in front of the Stars. Dallas is 8-1 in one-goal games during the playoffs and 3-7 in games decided by multiple goals. If the Golden Knights are able get an early lead, I could see that snowballing into a blowout victory. The Stars have reverted back to their conservative, defensive ways of the regular season. Ben Bishop is not in net for them, though. Khudobin is and I don't see him producing a second straight monster game. He's not a spectacular goalies. He's just a solid backup who needs plenty of defense in front of him for protection. This limits the Stars from an offensive perspective. Despite the Game 3 loss, the Golden Knights still have beaten the Stars seven of the past 10 times. The Stars also are 2-8 the past 10 times after giving up 2 or fewer goals during their last game.
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| 09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
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The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues. |
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| 09-12-20 | UTEP +43.5 v. Texas | 3-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
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There's not much positive to say about UTEP. But the Miners have already played a game, beating Stephen F. Austin, 24-14, last Saturday. It's worth more this season to have played a game with limited off-season workouts. This is the Longhorns' opener. The Longhorns are going to treat this matchup as a glorified scrimmage. It's their lone non-Big 12 game matchup. Texas isn't going to waste much energy running up a score on UTEP, while the Miners want to keep things respectable in order to bolster their confidence and improve in-state recruiting. The Longhorns just want to get some rust off their starters and then get their reserves in so nobody important gets hurt. Texas being home actually helps the underdog with this large of a spread because the Longhorns can dress more players than they normally could if they were traveling.
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| 09-12-20 | Houston Baptist +41 v. Texas Tech | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
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Houston Baptist was one of the teams that played last week. That's an advantage for the Huskies because Texas Tech has yet to see action. The Red Raiders have a very good QB in Alan Bowman. But he hasn't seen action in a year due to a broken collarbone. The Red Raiders are breaking in two new offensive tackles so they want to be careful that Bowman doesn't get hurt again. If Texas Tech jumps to a big early lead it would be risky and foolish to keep Bowman on the field. Houston Baptist isn't going to hold Texas Tech in check. But the Huskies can produce points behind a high-volume, spread offense that their offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, learned during his time as an assistant coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsburgy. The Red Raiders had one of the worst pass defenses last season. |
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| 09-12-20 | UTSA v. Texas State -6.5 | 51-48 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
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Both teams were awful last season. Texas State looks improved, though, in its second year under Jake Spavital. The Bobcats hung in against SMU last week, losing 31-24, as 24 1/2-point home 'dogs. Memphis transfer Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's for the Bobcats. Texas State's offense looked much sharper with Spavital taking over the play-calling duties. SMU has a strong offense. Yet the Bobcats were able to come up with three turnovers and forced the Mustangs to punt three times. Now Texas State drops way down in class. Not only is UTSA a bad team - ranking 117th in points and 112th in giving up points last year - but it hasn't played yet. The Roadrunners have a new coaching staff under Jeff Traylor. Don't look for Traylor to get off to a promising start. His team has had to deal with a coronavirus outbreak with a number of players ruled out for this game because of it.
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| 09-11-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
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The pitching matchup, spot and huge talent edge all are set up here for the White Sox. I want to get involved with the White Sox and the best way to do that is cut the monster juice down by playing them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Detroit is playing for the ninth time in seven days. This is the Tigers' fourth different venue during this span. Their bullpen, not good to begin with, carries a heavy fatigue rating. The White Sox, by contrast, are rested, refreshed and confident. They enjoyed a day off on Thursday while the Tigers had to play a road doubleheader against the Cardinals. Lucas Giolito is one of the elite pitchers in the American League. He's been dominant in his last three starts at Guaranteed Rate Field with a 1.71 ERA. The Tigers are going with rookie Casey Mize, who the White Sox just saw on Aug. 19. Chicago got to Mize for three runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Mize is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he's being force-fed this season. His ERA is 6.75 in four starts. |
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| 09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
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I don't understand why the oddsmaker respects Miami so much in this matchup. I don't see the Hurricanes, a middle-of-the-road ACC team, as being 2-touchdowns superior to UAB, perhaps the best team in Conference USA. The Blazers have a strong defense, particularly versus the pass, and return 10 starters on offense. They have won 28 games during the past three seasons. Very important to note here, too, is UAB has played a game. The Blazers beat Central Arkansas, 45-35, last Thursday. That score was misleading considering the Blazers' domination. This is Miami's first game. The Hurricanes couldn't practice in the spring. They are switching to a spread offense featuring D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston. King has a big name, but he's one of the more overrated players in my view. I see the Hurricanes struggling against this defense, hurt by not having enough time and practice to learn a new offense and quarterback. Miami's home field advantage is narrowed, too, because there will be limited fan capacity. |
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| 09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
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I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors. |
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| 09-08-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 10-9 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks' white flag is flying high. Arizona is 2-17 in its last 19 games! The Diamondbacks are 0-11 the past 11 times facing a righthanded starter and now draw Walker Buehler. Buehler has given up one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this frame. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Diamondbacks have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They are playing a lot of youngsters who just aren't very good. Luke Weaver also was a good young pitcher - until he got hurt. Weaver has yet to prove he can return to form. He's 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has yielded eight homers in 32 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and runs scored.
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| 09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
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The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers. |
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| 09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
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The Rockies upset the Dodgers, 5-2, on Saturday. Prior to that game, the Dodgers were 17-1 at home versus Colorado. It has been 23 games since the Dodgers last dropped two straight games. LA has followed its last three defeats by crushing the opposition by at least five runs each time. The price is huge here as it should be with Julio Urias facing Ryan Castellani followed by by Chi Chi Gonzalez as the Rockies are treating this as a bullpen game. So laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line makes plenty of sense. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They aren't going to lack for offense against these stiff pitchers and Colorado's bullpen. LA starter Julio Urias is another one of the Dodgers' high-caliber young pitchers. He's coming off an excellent outing against the Diamondbacks giving up one run on four hits in six innings with no walks and five strikeouts this past Tuesday.
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| 09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
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Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again. |
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| 09-06-20 | White Sox -1.5 v. Royals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
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The Royals are reshuffling their rotation saying they are going to start Matt Harvey today. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Harvey has no business on any big league team's starting rotation. He's yet to pitch more than three innings and has a 14.09 ERA. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chicago is a much better team than Kansas City and going for the sweep here. The White Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 road games and 8-1 in their last nine games against the Royals. Kansas City has dropped five in a row. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 17 of their last 18 victories have been by two or more runs. This could be a final chance to fade Harvey so I'm going to take it.
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| 09-05-20 | White Sox -1.5 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
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The White Sox are 12-0 versus lefty starters this season. They have a mismatch in today's game with Lucas Giolito facing southpaw Kris Bubic. Giolito has become one of the better pitchers in the league. He has a 3.14 ERA. Bubic has a 5.46 ERA. The Royals are 0-5 in Bubic's five starts this year. The White Sox destroy lefthanded pitching. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.574) and highest OPS (.954) in the majors versus lefties. Chicago also is batting a second-best .303 against southpaws. Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 road games and has beaten the Royals in seven of the past eight games. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 16 of their last 17 victories have been by two or more runs.
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| 09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
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It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark. |
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| 09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
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The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. |
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| 09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks gave it a great try Wednesday night against the Dodgers, but fell one run short in losing for the 12th time in 13 games. That was with Arizona pitching its ace, Zack Gallen. Now the Diamondbacks draw Dodgers ace, a rejuvenated and healthy lefty Clayton Kershaw. Demoralized by giving up four veterans at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks aren't likely to offer much resistance after blowing an extra inning lead last night. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 28-10. Kershaw is back in dominant form going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 33-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season in 30 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging two runs per game in their last four games. They are 1-8 on the season versus southpaw starters, which isn't surprising since they are batting .227 against lefties and rank third-from-last in MLB in slugging percentage against lefthanders. LA leads the majors in homers and are second in runs. So Luke Weaver, who has been up and down on the comeback trail, is facing a major challenge. Weaver did not pitch well in his last start against the much-weaker hitting Giants. Weaver surrendered four earned runs on eight hits in three innings.
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| 09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
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Dealing Starling Marte, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley, the Diamondbacks have hoisted up the white flag for 2020. The Dodgers should be able to take full advantage being 26-10 and having just broken the National League for homers in a month. The Dodgers are even more dangerous with the NL now using the DH. The Diamondbacks are throwing Alex Young, a fill-in replacement for injured Madison Bumgarner. Young has a 4.70 ERA. The Dodgers should overwhelm Young and the Diamondbacks' bullpen. Julio Urias is another one of those young top of the line pitching prospects for the Dodgers. Urias has a lifetime 2.08 ERA versus Arizona in four appearances. The Dodgers have won by multiple runs in seven of their last eight victories.
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| 09-01-20 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -139 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
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In Framber Valdez I trust. Valdez has emerged as a dependable starter for the Astros posting a 2.35 ERA. He's coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Angels. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 during his last three starts with a 2.61 ERA during this span and 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. The Rangers are 2-12 in their last 14 games. They also have lost in their last nine road games against the Astros. This is almost a give-up game for the Rangers as they have made it a bullpen game. Luis Garcia is supposed to be the first victim up. He has a 5.40 ERA. He's likely to be followed by equally ineffective Jordan Lyles, who has a 9.25 ERA.
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| 09-01-20 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
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Zach Plesac is a promising young pitcher with much to prove in this start. He hasn't pitched since Aug. 8 because he violated team protocol. Plesac was looking good this season with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. He is 3-0 lifetime versus the Royals with a 2.11 ERA in four career outings. The other half of this handicap is a fade on washed-up Matt Harvey, who hasn't made it past the third inning in either of his two starts this season. He has an 11.12 ERA. I'm surprised he's still in a starting rotation. Cleveland has won 10 of its last 12 away games and is 13-5 during the past 18 meetings against the Royals. |
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| 08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
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| 08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
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Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it. |
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| 08-30-20 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
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I want the Twins and Kenta Maeda going for me after the Tigers swept a doubleheader from Minnesota on Saturday. How rare was Detroit sweeping? The Twins had won 68 percent of their last 60 games as a road favorite. The Tigers are 11-51 in their last 62 home games against a righty starter. Maeda has been highly consistent. He's 4-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. He's in great form, too, with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are going with their prize rookie Casey Mize. He has a monster upside, but right now he's a work-in-progress. Mize has a 7.04 ERA and hasn't reached the fifth inning in either of his first two starts.
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| 08-28-20 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
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The Angels aren't playing well, losing 11 of their last 14 games and Andrew Heaney is in bad form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. So I'll take a 1 1/2 runs with the Mariners, who have won five of their last six. If given 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Mariners are going with Nick Margevicius, who is showing potential in his last two starts joining the rotation in place of injured Kendall Graveman. Margevicius has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings and is coming off a victory against the Rangers. |
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| 08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
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Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers. |
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| 08-25-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
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Say didn't you used to be Matt Harvey stud pitcher for the Mets? That was three teams and five years ago. Harvey never recovered from serious arm trouble. His time in the big leagues is likely limited so the time to fade him is now because chances are going to soon run out. Harvey made his first start of the year six days ago against the Reds. Predictably it didn't go well. Harvey gave up three runs in three innings allowing four hits in a 5-0 loss. Adam Wainwright is past his prime, but he's started the season well going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He's facing a Royals club that is not playing well and ranks 29th in runs scored. The Cardinals have started to get their offense in gear averaging 4.5 runs in their last six games. St. Louis has won three in a row - all by 3 or more runs. The Royals have been a bad road team losing 102 of their past 150 away games.
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| 08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
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No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
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| 08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 145 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
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The Golden Knights have never lost in regulation to the Canucks in 10 meetings. I don't expect that pattern to change in this Game 1. Given that the Golden Knights are the superior team and are in a very good situational spot, I'm expecting a Las Vegas multi-goal win so I'd rather grab a nice plus price on the puck line than lay heavy juice. The Canucks just played this past Friday night when they eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. That's a quick turnaround and a letdown spot. By contrast, the Golden Knights have been idle since Wednesday. Having four days to rest and prepare is huge at this stage. The Golden Knights opened their Stanley Cup playoffs with a 4-1 Game 1 victory against the Blackhawks, who had just got through upsetting the Oilers. I could envision the same type of victory here for the Golden Knights, who have a huge edge in depth and defense.
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| 08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
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The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. |
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| 08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
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The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
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| 08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
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Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team. Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure. So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard. Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity. Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history. Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2. Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.
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| 08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
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You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
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| 08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
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Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look. I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points. Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored. The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent. On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1. I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play.
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| 08-19-20 | Mercury +6.5 v. Sparks | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
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Diana Taurasi is rounding into shape and Phoenix doesn't lack for talent. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Mercury make a move starting with this game. LA is fat and happy right now. Derek Fisher is my least favorite coach in this league. Phoenix outscores LA on the season and has a strong inside presence with Britney Griner. The Mercury also is coming off their first two-day break since having three days in between their first and second games of the season. That extra day of rest should help them mentally and physically. The Sparks last played this past Saturday. That's too long of a break so they could be rusty.
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| 08-19-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
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The Diamondbacks are an above .500 team, have won six in a row and are going with their best pitcher this season, Merrill Kelly. Kelly has allowed just one run in his last 12 2/3 innings. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.91 ERA on the season. The A's are going with Jesus Luzardo, a highly-promising rookie who has been up and down. He has a 4.79 ERA. He's coming off a game where he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Giants.
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| 08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points. The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter. LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley.
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| 08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
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The Blackhawks have nothing to be ashamed of. They made the playoffs taking out the Oilers in round-robin play. The Blackhawks also didn't get swept by the Golden Knights during this Stanley Cup playoff series because they won Game 4 two days ago. But now the clock has struck midnight for Chicago. The Golden Knights could be the best team in hockey. They out-chanced the Blackhawks, 41-4, in losing this past Sunday despite playing perhaps their best game of the series. There is a huge class and depth difference in this series. The Blackhawks have some great veterans, but they also have a lot of youth and their third line can't compete with the Golden Knights' third line. Las Vegas is up 3-1 in the series despite not scoring a single power-play goal. That's due to change. The Golden Knights had the ninth-best power play during the regular season. Now the Golden Knights have added motivation after losing in their last game. The edges are all there, so I feel confident in backing the Golden Knights at a plus price laying 1 1/2 goals rather than laying heavy juice.
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| 08-18-20 | Aces -3 v. Sky | 82-84 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
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The Aces were fortunate to play the sinking Mystics during their last game this past Saturday. Perhaps bothered by an early start time, they didn't play well. But now the Aces are fully rested and have revenge for their most frustrating defeat of the season - an 88-86 loss to Chicago on July 26. The Sky scored the final 11 points in that contest to pull out the victory. Las Vegas has won seven in a row. The Aces are the second-best team in the league right now behind only Seattle. The Aces lead the league in scoring and can take advantage of the turnover-prone Sky.
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| 08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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| 08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
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The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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| 08-16-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
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The Mariners are back to being who we thought they would be. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games. Seattle has managed only nine runs in its last five games and just three runs during its last three games. Lance McCullers Jr. should be set up for success against the Mariners. McCullers looked great in his comeback from Tommy John surgery during his last start. That came against the Giants this past Tuesday giving up just one hit in seven scoreless innings. McCullers also is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 lifetime starts versus the Mariners. The Astros draw Seattle rookie Justus Sheffield. He has a high ceiling, but is being force-fed this season and taking his lumps. His ERA sits at 5.27.
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