TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12.  The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day.  TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year. 
 

These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana.  Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6. 

The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again.  The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one.  That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers.  Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen.  LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games. 
  

Tuesday Free Play

Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets 

 It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits.  Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury.  The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver.  Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. 
  

Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in. 

Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games.  Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home.  Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
 

Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs.  The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored.  I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday.  The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. 

Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team.  The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent.  Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game. 
 

Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points.  The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage. 
 

I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday.  Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74. 

Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points.  Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too.  The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61. 

UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games.  The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams.  The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average.  I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance. 

The Trail Blazers can't afford to lose this game in their quest to make the playoffs. Their journey is made easier with the return of star guard Damian Lillard. Phoenix has dropped four in a row. The Suns are down two key players with third-leading scorer Kelly Oubre sidelined with a knee injury and Deandre Ayton not likely to play because of an ankle injury. That should ensure another strong inside game from rejuvenated Hassan Whiteside.  Portland has won the last five it has played the Suns in Phoenix. 

Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8.  I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that.  The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record.  The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games. 
 

Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around. 

Prior to losing to Idaho State, Weber State had scored 83 and 82 points, respectively. The Wildcats average 70 points a game. Idaho averages fewer than 65 points a game. The Vandals' scoring has been down recently, too. They are averaging just 55.2 points during their last four games. The Vandals also have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. I see a class difference that is greater than this point spread. 

Don't overthink this game. Dayton has won 18 games in a row because the Flyers are the superior team.  Led by Obi Toppin, the Flyers are leading the nation in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent. Toppin is averaging nearly 20 points a game while shooting an Atlantic-10 leading 63.2 percent from the floor.  Rhode Island has yielded at least 72 points in four of its last five games, losing three of those matchups. The Rams aren't going to be able to stay with Dayton. That was the case in the first meeing, which Dayton won, 81-67, on Feb. 11. It will be the case here, too. 

I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday.  The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday.  Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition.  This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times. 

Oklahoma City is in stop-the-pain mode having lost its last two games. Those matchups, though, were against the Bucks and Clippers. Now the Thunder step way down in class to face the battered Pistons.  The Pistons no longer have Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Blake Griffin is out for the season. Their two best players are Derrick Rose and Christian Wood. Rose isn't likely to play because of an ankle injury while Wood is questionable with a foot injury.  So this sets up as a kill spot for the Thunder. The situation also favors Oklahoma City. Detroit is home for the first time since finishing a four-game road trip at Sacramento on Sunday. Detroit is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games and 1-8 ATS at home versus foes that have a winning road mark.  The Thunder have been one of the top road spread teams covering 22 of their last 29 away games. They are 9-1 ATS, too, the past 10 times when playing without rest and and 9-1 ATS against opponent with a losing home mark.

In Markus Howard I trust. The senior guard leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points a game. Marquette desperately needs this game being on the bubble for an NCAA Tourney bid.  DePaul can't beat its fellow Big East teams. The Blue Demons are 2-14 in their last 16 conference games.  The Golden Eagles have defeated DePaul during the past four meetings. This includes a 76-72 win at Marquette. DePaul shot 50 percent from the floor in that loss, while Marquette managed to hit only 40 percent of its field goals yet still win by four. Look for the Golden Eagles to shoot better this time around and to win by a more comfortable margin. 

Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago.  Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind.  While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points. 

Georgia State is much better at home. Arkansas Little Rock already has clinched the Sun Belt Conference title. Yet this line is out of whack because Arkansas Little Rock still is a much superior team to the Panthers with a big inside edge. Little Rock has been playing with a chip on its shoulder the whole season after being picked to finish 11th in the conference. So the Trojans just aren't going to mail this one it.   Georgia State has lost three in a row - all by at least eight points. That's dropped the Panthers to fifth place in the Sun Belt. 
 

The Hawks are getting some love here from the oddsmaker coming off consecutive home double-digit victories against the Nets and Trail Blazers. The key for the Hawks in those victories was their 3-point shooting.  Atlanta sank 37 of 81 3-pointers during those two games for 45.6 percent. I don't see the Hawks keeping up that long range accuracy. They rank last in the NBA in 3-point accuracy hitting 33.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.  The buy sign is back on the Grizzlies after they halted a five-game losing streak coming off break with a monster, 105-88, home win against the Lakers on Saturday. That was LA's lowest scoring total of the season.  The Grizzlies don't want to just give that victory back with a loss to the lowly Hawks, who are one of the five-worst teams in the NBA and at least 1 1/2 levels lower than Memphis. 

I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference.  North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range.  The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10.  South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference.  The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games.  I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team. 

The bottom line for me is Orlando is not this many points better than Portland even playing at home and the Trail Blazers missing Damian Lillard. The teams met in Portland on Dec. 20 and the Trail Blazers won, 118-103. Lillard was instrumental in that victory.  But even without Lillard, the Trail Blazers should keep this close, if not win, taking on such a limited offensive opponent. Portland outscores Orlando by eight points a game. The Trail Blazers still have the best guard on the court in CJ McCollum. I also would take Hassan Whiteside against any of Orlando's big men right now. Whiteside has been rejuvenated this season leaving Miami. He's produced double-doubles in his last nine games.  Orlando doesn't have a strong home-court failing to cover in seven of its last nine games at Amway Center. 

The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role.  The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel.  Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
 

This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding.  Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae.   I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25. 

Miami received a much needed win beating the Mavericks, 126-118, last night. The Nets also played last night and were humiliated in the fourth quarter by the Hawks losing, 141-118, on the road. That was the most points the Nets had surrendered in three years.  I'm expecting a much stronger and focused effort from the Nets, who even with that loss still yield just two fewer points per game than Miami.  The Heat are a bit fat and happy after that victory. Miami hasn't been playing well just 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Heat are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a point spread cover. Brooklyn is 5-2 ATS the past seven times following a victory.  The Nets have covered in four of their last five games against the Heat, including both meeting this season winning, 117-113, at home on Jan. 10 and falling, 109-106, as 4 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kyrie Irving didn't play in either of those games. 

I see Oakland scoring enough points to produce an outright upset. The Golden Grizzlies have produced 70 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The lone exception was scoring 68 points in their last game.  Illinois-Chicago averages fewer than 69 points a game.  This has been a road team series with the visitor covering four of the last five times. 

Considering VCU is likely to be withou guard Marcus Evans for a second straight game and has been playing horrible, I see this line being vastly inflated.  The Rams have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. Evans, the Rams' third-leading scorer and top assists guy, is dealing with a knee injury.  It's hard to cover a large margin against George Washington because the Colonials play at a very slow tempo. The Colonials haven't lost by more than 12 points in 12 of their last 15 games. 

I'm hoping point guard Isaac Bonton will be able to play for Washington State. He's questionable with a hip injury. But the Cougars still have a tremendous all-around player in CJ Elleby. I don't believe Washington is this many points better than Washington State so I'm on the Cougars regardless of Bonton's status. Washington State defeated the Huskies, 79-67, on Feb. 9 behind Elleby's 34 points.  The Huskies have been one of the worst ATS teams since Christmas failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games. The talent gap between these two teams doesn't merit this high of a point spread in my view. 

The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. 

 Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row.  The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses.  I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday.

Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points.  The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals. 

Texas-San Antonio is the 23rd-highest scoring team in the nation. The Roadrunners average eight more points per game than Florida Atlantic. They have a big backcourt edge with Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who average a combined 47 points per game.  The Roadrunners have scored 77 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games.  I don't see Florida Atlantic producing enough points to cover let alone win the game. The Owls have not been playing well losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games.
 

Delaware has won eight of its last 10 games, while Collge of Charleston is at low ebb losing and failing to cover in its last four games. The Cougars are averaging just 58.5 points during these past four games.  The Blue Hens, on the other hand, have produced 76 or more points in six of their last eight games. 
 

Las Vegas is playing its best hockey on a six-game win streak. The Golden Knights should be well-rested, too, having been idle since Sunday. Edmonton, though, is coming off a road overtime loss to the Ducks last night. 

 Because it's their second game in two nights, the Oilers are expected to start backup goalie Mikko Koskinen. He has less than sterling credentials with an .899 save percentage and 3.28 GAA in his last four games. 

New Mexico hasn't been the same since Carlton Bragg was booted off the team in mid-January. Bragg provided the Lobos an inside force being their best rebounder and top field goal percentage shooter.  The Lobos' roster has been in flux since then. The results have showed that as New Mexico is 1-7 in its last eight games and has lost four in a row. The Lobos have yet to win on the road without Bragg going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS.  This has been a home team series with the host covering 11 of the last 15 times. That's the way I see this matchup going, too, with Air Force winning. The Falcons are a far superior 3-point shooting team and won't lack motivation. Not only are the Falcons coming off an embarrassing 78-72 home loss to Wyoming in which they were favored by 8 1/2-points, but this is the final home game for five of their seniors. 
 

Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games!  This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.

These teams met in late January and Auburn nipped Mississippi, 83-82, in double overtime. A takeaway from that game is that Rebels star senior guard Breein Tyree scored only six points.  Tyree leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 points. He has been hot during his last six games making 56 of 107 shots from the floor for 52.3 percent. The Rebels have scored 68 or more points in five of their last six games sparked by Tyree. I expect Tyree to play much better this time around against Auburn and for the Rebels to get the cover.  Auburn is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. The Tigers had to rally from 17 points down in the second half to beat Tennessee, 73-66, this past Saturday covering as six-point home favorites. The Tigers managed to eke out a cover by making two free throws with eight seconds left. If Auburn didn't cover in that matchup it would have the Tigers' fifth straight non-cover. 
 

The combination of Oklahoma State playing well and Kansas in a letdown spot after knocking off top-ranked Baylor, 64-61, on Saturday puts me on the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State has looked sharp especially this past Saturday when the Cowboys rolled past Oklahoma, 83-66. Better backcourt production has been instrumental for the Cowboys and can help them hang in against the Jayhawks at this large point spread.  The Cowboys have scored 70 or more points in four of their last six games.

Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games.  Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks.   The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6.  Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.  

I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris.  The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West.  Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony.  Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.  
 

Decimated by injuries, the Bulls have lost eight straight games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Minus Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn. Denzel Valentine and Luke Kornet the Bulls committed a season-worst 26 turnovers in a 112-104 home loss to the Suns on Saturday.  Zach LaVine is Chicago's only legitimate NBA starter.  The Wizards had some momentum going 5-2 in their last seven games before All-Star break. However, the Wizards' shooting was off and their rust showed on Friday in their first game back from break. They lost, 113-108, at home to the Cavaliers.  Washington should shoot better than the 38.7 percent it did against Cleveland. The Wizards have a better lineup and bench than the banged-up Bulls with their YMCA roster. The teams just met 12 days ago and the Wizards won, 126-114, as 3-point home favorites. 

It's taken nearly all season, but the Nuggets finally have gotten healthy. Short-term, though, that may not be such a huge plus as the team has to integrated again and role players have to readjust.  The Timberwolves are thin up front without Karl-Anthony Towns. But their morale is better with D'Angelo Russell on board and Andrew Wiggins gone. Former Nugget Malik Beasley has looked good for Minnesota since coming from Denver on Feb. 5. He knows his old team so his presence should be an added plus. The Nuggets are not good in this role going 3-9-1 ATS the past 13 times versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. The Timberwolves have lost the first three games of the series to Denver, but only by an average margin of six points. None of their defeats were by more than nine points.  

The Blackhawks are 2-7 in their last nine games and don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs. They take to the road fat and happy, though, after beating the Predators, 2-1, at home on Friday. Chicago is 6-21 the past 27 times when playing on one day's rest. Chicago draws an angry Dallas team coming off a 5-1 loss to the Blues. 

Wichita State is back on track after getting embarrassed at Houston winning three in a row by an average of 17.3 points. The Shockers rank 37th defensively and have held their last three opponents - Central Florida, Tulane and South Florida - to 58 points or fewer.  This is a big revenge spot for the Shockers and they now have their swagger and confidence restored. The Bearcats nipped Wichita State, 80-79, on Feb. 6 when Jarron Cumberland converted a three-point play with 3.5 seconds left. Cumberland is the Bearcats' best player, but is in a shooting slump making just 12 of 45 shots during his last four games.   Cincinnati has been winning, but not covering margins. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played four straight overtime games so they could have tired legs. 

Sunday Free Play

 Wisconsin minus 4 1/2 hosting Rutgers  Wisconsin is another one of those Big Ten teams that is much better at home. The timing works here to back the Badgers.  Rutgers is at low ebb. The Scarlet Knights are 2-4 this month. They also are a bit shell shocked having just lost for the first time in 18 games at home falling to Michigan, 60-52, this past Wednesday. Rutgers shot just 34.9 percent from the floor in that loss. The Badgers have held opponents below 40 percent from the field in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this season. Rutgers has lost its past five road/neutral court games. Like the Badgers, the Scarlet Knights are a far better home team.  Wisconsin has revenge motivation, too. Rutgers defeated the Badgers, 72-65, in Piscataway on Dec. 11. The Scarlet Knights took advantage of the Badgers not having Micah Potter, their leading rebounder, to outrebound Wisconsin, 40-26.  Rutgers has never swept a season series for Wisconsin. I don't see the Scarlet Knights putting a halt to that streak. 

Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad.  The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting. 

Weber State beat Southern Utah, 75-65, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog on Jan. 30. Southern Utah has lost three in a row, all on the road going 1-2 ATS.  Weber State has the best player on the court in guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 22.5 points.  The Wildcats are the better long-range shooting team and are home. They should not be underdogs. 

Alabama-Birmingham holds foes to fewer than 65 points a game. Florida Atlantic is going to have trouble putting up points and holding its own on the glass against the Blazers. The Owls have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They are averaging just 60.7 points during this span. Only once in their last nine games have the Owls scored more than 69 points and that was against Marshall, which ranks 262nd defensively. 
 

If you're going to play without rest the best time to do it is following a week long layoff. Memphis is 5-0 ATS the past five times when playing on the second of consecutive days and should even hold an edge on the Lakers because of it. The Grizzlies lost to the Kings on the road last night. The Grizzlies are adjusted to West Coast time now and should have the rust off. The Lakers, on the other hand, haven't played in nine days. The last time the Lakers played with more than five days rest was on Jan. 31 and they lost, 127-119, to the Trail Blazers as 13-point home favorites.  LA also has a marquee look-ahead matchup hosting the Celtics on national television Sunday.  The Grizzlies have been red-hot even with their loss to the Kings Thursday night winning 15 of their last 20 games, while going 14-6 ATS.

Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor.  The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch.  The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line.  This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip.  Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations.  The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.

This line opened short. The Pacers are back on track after knocking off the Bucks in their final game before the All-Star break. TJ Warren may not play for Indiana, but the Pacers still hold a major talent edge with a now-healthy Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. The Pacers won't lack motivation as they are in revenge mode for a 92-85 home loss suffered to the Knicks on Feb. 1 when they weren't playing well. Indiana has covered in seven of its past nine away matchups.  The Knicks are in total rebuild mode and team chemistry was shaken when word leaked that interim coach Mike Miller isn't going to be back even though Miller has been a huge improvement on David Fizdale. 
 

Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month.  Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
 

Perhaps you think the Bulls are better than Charlotte? They aren't. Chicago is 19-36. Charlotte is 18-36. The Hornets are 2-1 versus the Bulls this season with their lone defeat coming by one point. Charlotte covered all three games versus the Bulls and is on a five-game ATS run against Chicago going back to last season.  The Bulls would be superior to the Hornets if they were fully healthy. That's not the case, though.  Center Wendell Carter Jr. is the only key injured Bull set to return today. Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr. and Kris Dunn all remain sidelined. Take away those players and Charlotte has the better roster. Zach LaVine gives Chicago the best player on the court. After that, however, the Hornets have Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges, P.J. Washington and emerging star Devonte' Graham, who is quietly averaging 18.1 points and 7.8 assists per game. Carter last played on Jan. 6 so he figures to be rusty and could be on a minutes restriction. Note the Bulls held LaVine to 4-of-19 shooting from the floor when the teams last played with Charlotte winning, 83-73, on Dec. 13 in Chicago.  Charlotte comes out of the break having posted consecutive road victories against the Pistons and Timberwolves. Graham is playing his best ball of the season.  The Bulls, on the other hand, have dropped six in a row. Among these losses were by 15 points to the Nets and by 12 points to the Wizards. Chicago isn't a strong home team especially versus weaker foes where they are 9-24 ATS the past 33 times hosting sub .500 opponents. 
  

Washington State is a mediocre Pac-12 team. But that's good enough to cover this margin at home against California, which is 0-10 on the road.  The Golden Bears have lost four in a row and lack the size and talent to take advantage of Washington State inside.  The Cougars are 11-3 at home, including going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games. They have been up-and-down but own victories against UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State.  I like the Cougars to cover this spread even if guard Issac Bonton has to miss a second straight game with a leg injury. He missed the Cougars' last game this past Saturday. Washington State lost 70-51 to USC in that matchup. That game, though, was at USC and Bonton's freshmen replacements will be better prepared if called upon.  The Cougars still have CJ Elleby, who is averaging 18.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, to give them the best player on the court. 

Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home.  Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season.  The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games. 

If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games.  The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers.   New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January.  The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25.  The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight. 

Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome.  The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points.  That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks.  Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too.  The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday. 

Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings.  I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes.  The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4. 

I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats.  The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside. 

George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points.  George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
 

I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast.  West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.

Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game.  Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak.  The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood. 

Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points.  This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs. 

I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.  Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense.  The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up. 
 

Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times.  California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State.  Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game.  The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats. 
 

Both the Clippers and Celtics are off bad losses. It's the Clippers who I want in this spot. No team has been better following a defeat. LA is 15-1 SU, 13-3 ATS off a loss.  The Celtics have plenty of stars. But it's the Clippers who have the two best players on the court in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Leonard is having another brilliant season and is one of the hottest players in the NBA scoring 30 or more points in 10 of his last 13 games.  Jaylen Brown is questionable for the Celtics due to a calf injury. The Clippers have beaten Boston four straight times, including 107-104 at home on Nov. 20.
 

Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game.  The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season. 

Portland has stepped up recently going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games, while defeating the Pacers, Rockets, Lakers, Jazz and Heat during this stretch. But the Trail Blazers couldn't keep it up against much-improved New Orleans on Tuesday, losing 138-117 on the road.  That defeat dropped the Trail Blazers 2 1/2 games in back of Memphis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. So even though the Trail Blazers carry a huge fatigue rating - this is their fifth game in seven days - I'm expecting an all-out effort from a prideful bunch. This is close to a must-win spot for the Trail Blazers and they will be idle for the next nine days following this game.  The Grizzlies are playing well, but are flirting with danger shooting just 23.8 percent from 3-point range during their last five games. 

Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter.  Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier.  The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday.  The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington. 

Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total.  Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game.  Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record.  The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
 

Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game.   Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas. 

The Magic finished 20-9 to make the playoffs last season. They are going to need a similar kick to achieve that this season being nine games below .500. The Magic need to start immediately and this matchup sets up for them. Orlando has had a day rest and is stepping way down in class after losing 111-95 to the Bucks at home on Saturday. Now the Magic go from playing the best team in the league to one of the two worst teams in the NBA. Orlando has covered seven of the last nine times versus sub .500 opponents.  The Hawks rallied from eight points down in the final 90 seconds of the first overtime to defeat the Knicks, 140-135, in double overtime at home on Sunday. That was just Atlanta's 14th win in 53 games. The Hawks went all out in beating the Knicks as four players logged at least 47 minutes with big man John Collins going 49 minutes.  Now the Hawks take to the road where they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Atlanta remains thin up front as recent acquistion Clint Capela won't play due to a heel injury. Besides the urgency of needing to beat the Hawks, the Magic won't be taking Atlanta lightly either as they are 0-2 against them this season.  

The Clippers buried the Cavaliers, 128-103, when they hosted them on Jan. 14. I doubt the Clippers win by 25 points again, but I do believe they beat the hapless Cavaliers by double-digits even if Kawhi Leonard sits out this game.

 Cleveland has lost 12 of its past 13 games, including the last five. The Cavaliers did pick up Andre Drummond. He could make his Cleveland debut here. It's going to take time, though, for the Cavaliers to adjust to Drummond, who is a better fantasy player than an NBA player.  The Clippers should be in an angry mood after being humiliated, 142-115, by the Timberwolves on the road last night. The Clippers have a strong history of responding well following a loss. They are 23-7 ATS in that role and 7-1 ATS the past eight times after losing by double-digits.  Cleveland has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests. 
 

Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot.  Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.

Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role.  Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that.  The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage.  The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.

Even though Dallas won't have injured Luka Doncic and are playing without rest, they still should beat the Hornets by more than this point spread. Charlotte has turned into one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have lost 12 of their last 13 games with the lone victory during this span coming against the Knicks at home. The Hornets really have problems stepping up in class. They are 4-12 ATS the past 16 times when meeting above .500 opponents. Dallas is coming off a tough 119-118 road defeat to the Wizards last night. The Mavericks didn't play well and were knocked off on a buzzer-beating layup by Bradley Beal. Dallas not only has incentive to bounce back, but also strong revenge motivation, too. Charlotte stunned the Mavericks, 123-120, in overtime as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs during the first meeting.  The Mavericks are very strong in this role going 12-3-1 ATS as road chalk.  The Hornets could be missing several of their rotation players. Cody Martin is in concussion protocol and veteran forward Marvin Williams is expected to sign with another team possibly the Bucks. 

Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games.  Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight. 

Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13.  OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why.  The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat.  I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst.  The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times. 

You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points.  This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times. 

Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday.  Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
 

Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines.  The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season.  New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick.  The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home.  The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108. 
 

Yes, current form is important. But this is trumped by situation when it comes to the long grind-out season of the NBA. The Jazz have that key element going here along with a powerful home history against the Nuggets. Utah has lost four in a row. The Jazz also haven't played in four days. They are going to be ready for this matchup especially after losing six days ago to the Nuggets, 106-100, on the road. The Jazz played at San Antonio the previous night before losing to the Nuggets. Utah still might have beaten Denver if star guard Donovan Mitchell would have had just a normal game. Instead, Mitchell had one of his worst games of the season missing 11 of 12 shots from the field.  This time around it's the Nuggets who are without rest facing a revenge-minded, ravenous Jazz squad. Denver is coming off an impressive, 127-99, home win against the Trail Blazers Tuesday night.  Jamal Muray returned from injury for Denver aginst the Trail Blazers. However, forward Jerami Grant suffered an ankle injury. Denver already is without big men Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. Michael Porter could be out, too, severely restricting Denver's frontcourt depth. Grant, Millsap and Plumlee are Denver's best interior defenders. Rudy Gobert should be able to dominate inside while an obviously highly motivated Mitchell should produce big in the backcourt.  Denver is 4-11 ATS following a victory and 3-7 ATS when playing without rest. The Nuggets also have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 visits to Salt Lake City losing on the road to the Jazz the past nine times. 

Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge.  The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road.  Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines. 

The Hornets just lost lost 112-100 at home to Orlando for their 11th loss in 12 games. So why get involved with them here besides the obvious taking a generous amount of points? The Hornets outrebounded the Magic by nine and outplayed them in the paint. Orlando's strength is its frontcourt. The Magic won, though, because they uncharacteristically buried 16 of 34 shots from 3-point range. The Magic are 29th in scoring and 28th in 3-point field goal percentage. Charlotte is slightly below average in 3-point defense ranking 19th.  Charlotte has covered the past five times following a double-digit home loss. The Hornets also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest.  The other side of this equation is Houston. The Rockets are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. They just beat the Mavericks and Pelicans at home. The Mavericks were minus Luka Doncic and the Pelicans got caught peeking ahead to their nationally televised matchup against the Bucks today while adjusting to how to play basketball with Zion Williamson. After this matchup, the Rockets meet the Lakers in LA on Thursday in a nationally televised game. So this matchup isn't a high priority for Houston.  The Rockets aren't expected to have big man Clint Capela nor Russell Westbrook, who hurt his thumb against the Pelicans on Sunday. So Houston likely will be without two of its three best players. The Rockets figure to play small ball again going without anyone taller than 6-foot-6. The Rockets did that against the Mavericks and Pelicans and got away with it despite getting outrebounded by a combined 35 boards in those two games. Charlotte has several unsung, lunch-pail type big men who are adept rebounders. They can help keep the Hornets within this large point spread. 
  

No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor.  But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do.  Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points.  The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet.  The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game. 

The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them.  I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot  is favorable as it is here.   Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player.  The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip.  Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win. 
 

Toronto is going for its eighth straight home win against Florida. I think the Maple Leafs will get it. So does the oddsmaker making the Maple Leafs such a heavy favorite. But I also believe this is a kill spot for the Maple Leafs so I'm turning the juice around from heavy minus to a solid plus price by laying a goal and a half on the puck line. The Maple Leafs are 3-0 coming out of All-Star break. They are playing extremely well and in a big revenge spot. The Panthers embarrassed the Maple Leafs, 8-4, in Florida three weeks ago.  This time around the Maple Leafs draw the Panthers playing for just the second time since Jan. 21. Florida has played only once since break losing, 4-0, on the road to the Canadiens this past Saturday.  Florida could also be without its second-leading scorer, center Aleksander Barkov. He suffered a lower-body injury against Montreal.

The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the NBA. They have actually played better on the road than at home. Devin Booker has All-Star numbers. He should have been selected to be an All-Star. But all of this is trumped by the Bucks being the best team in basketball, being home and in an angry mood following a surprising, 127-115, home defeat to the road-weary Nuggets this past Friday.  That was just the Bucks' third home loss of the season in 25 games at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 25-9 (74%) ATS following a defeat.  So no disrespect to the Suns, but I want the Bucks going for me in this spot. 

Forget the 14-1 record from Dec. 26-Jan. 25. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row with the latter coming in back-to-back road settings against the Spurs and Nuggets.  Now the Jazz have had a day to regroup and they gain a scheduling edge. They draw the Trail Blazers, who just won an emotional road game Friday night against the Lakers in the backdrop of Kobe Bryant's untimely death.  This is just the second time since Dec. 21 Portland is playing without rest. The last time was Jan. 18 and the Trail Blazers lost, 119-106, at the Thunder.  The Trail Blazers have surrendered their once lofty home-court edge. They are 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests.  The Jazz are a top-four Western Conference team. The Trail Blazers have been a major disappointment and wouldn't be in the postseason if the regular season ended this weekend.  The Trail Blazers are traveling back home saturated after last night's huge victory, Utah should be fully focused to end its losing streak knowing they won't be in action for another four days following this game. 
  

This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups.  The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday.  Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers. 

The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits.

 So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest.  The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here.  The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. 
 

Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances.  The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites.  Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here.  UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28. 
 

Look for Tampa Bay to beat the Kings for an eighth straight time - and in a big way, too. The Lightning came out of All-Star break not looking good in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Stars on Monday. They will look to take their frustrations out on a rusty Kings squad that hasn't played in 11 days and is 1-6-1 in their last eight games.  The Kings don't have much of a home ice edge and the mood figures to be somber in LA so soon after the death of Kobe Bryant.  Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a strong January with a .955 save percentage. 
  

I want Bradley going for me off a loss and being home against a bad road team in Valparaiso.  The Braves are 11-1 at home this season and 10-1 ATS off a loss. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Bradley also has covered 72 percent of the past 37 times when playing at home against an opponent with a less than .400 road winning percentage.  

Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail.  The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss.  Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.  

It's not a misprint. If the season ended today, the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. Memphis has come on winning eight of its last 10 games, going 7-3 ATS, to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference.  Phoenix is much improved, too. But the Grizzlies are the better team with more balanced scoring and prime rookie of the year candidate Ja Morant trumping Ricky Rubio at point guard. Morant is averaging 17.4 points and 7.1 assists. Sparked by Morant, the Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league this month.  Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 15 of its last 16 games. Phoenix ranks 20th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Suns enter this matchup a bit fat and happy having defeated the Spurs this past Friday in San Antonio. It was the Suns' first win there in seven years.  The Suns beat the Grizzlies on Nov. 2. Memphis has improved a great deal since then beating the Suns, 115-108, on Dec. 11 and 121-114 on Jan. 5. Both of those victories came at Phoenix. 

UNLV has turned around its season winning six in a row. The Rebels are strong on the offensive glass ranking sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. This could be a serious problem for San Diego State, whose rotation is missing Nathan Mensah and possibly Aguek Arop.  The Aztecs are 20-0. But their strong defense will be tested in this tough road setting as UNLV has the most efficient offense in the Mountain West Conference. 

Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread.  Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
 

Utah is the hottest team in the NBA winning 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz's last three victories have been by an average of 28.3 points.  Dallas is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this is a tough road spot for the Mavericks. The Jazz have been idle since Wednesday, while the Mavericks played on Thursday and earlier this week lost underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with an Achilles injury.  The Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Thursday in their first game without Powell. I don't see them doing that to the Jazz, who can exploit the injury with Rudy Gobert playing at such a high level.  The Jazz have covered their last seven home games and are 13-3 ATS the past 16 times laying points.