Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +111 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Arizona. Jesse Chavez has made eight starts this season. And he's been fairly effective, with a 3.99 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is also exceptional (28K, 4BB). Tonight, he'll make his second career start vs. the Diamondbacks. He was solid in his first one, as he gave up just one earned run over five innings. Chavez will face Diamondbacks' lefty Robbie Ray tonight. Ray's made four previous starts vs. Texas, and owns an ERA north of five runs per game (5.06) in those starts. The Rangers have been installed as a home underdog for this game. We'll grab the home team, as they're 31-20 (+16 games on the money line) this season here, in Arlington (including 17-12 (+13 games on the money line) as a home dog). Take Texas. |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers -145 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda hasn't been able to duplicate his rookie season. In 2016, the now 31-year-old came into the Majors from Japan and promptly won 16 games with a 3.48 ERA and finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The next two seasons didn't match that success. But so far in 2019, Maeda is having a very strong campaign. For example, Maeda's hit rate is at a career low this season (6.7 per 9 IP), while he has maintained a strikeout rate of at least one per inning. He also has seven career starts vs. the Phillies and he is 4-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those while the Dodgers are 5-2. Take L.A. |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cards' starting pitcher this afternoon -- RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon -- has the distinction of being drafted by four different Major League clubs over the past five years, starting with the Rays in 2010 and ending with his current team, which selected him in June of 2014. It seems it wasn't a bad choice as Ponce de Leon has posted a 2.37 ERA in 18 appearances, including eight starts, in a season-and-a-half with the Cards. He'll get MLB start number nine today at Busch Stadium, a ballpark at which Ponce de Leon has had success with a 2.94 ERA in nine games (five starts) covering just under 34 innings. The Pirates will couner with Chris Archer. The veteran RHP has struggled over his last four campaigns and it appears 2019 will be no different. In his first full season with the Bucs, Archer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA in 16 starts covering just under 85 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Pirates are just 8-15 in the last 23 meetings with the Cards. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Braves v. Brewers -153 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. There were plenty of first-time All-Stars this season, but none was more deserving than the Brewers' third-year pitcher, RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 26-year-old has done little wrong so far in 2019, logging a 10-3 record with a 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and very strong 5.04 K:BB ratio in 18 starts covering 108 innings. Start number 19 comes against a team which Woodruff had one of his best starts of the season. On May 19, Woodruff threw eight strong innings in Atlanta, allowing two runs on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks. Although the Brewers won the game, 3-2, Woodruff took a no-decision. To that end, it's important to note that the Brew Crew is 14-4 in Woodruff's trips to the mound this season, indicating just how strong the Milwaukee offense is this season. Here is another impressive stat: The Brewers are 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 home starts coming into tonight. Finally, they are also 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. teams with a road win percentage greater than .600. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +176 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 176 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have all the respect in the world for the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, as I think he's one of the three most talented pitchers in the league. But this is a big price for him to lay on the road. And especially against a team which bombed him last season for 5 runs in 4 2-3 innings (9.64 ERA). This season, Buehler's road ERA is 3.76, while Vincent Velasquez's ERA in his home starts is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. The Phillies have been underdogs in seven of their last eight home games vs. Los Angeles, yet are 5-3 (+6 games on the money line) in those games. Take the Phillies as a huge home dog on Tuesday night. |
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07-16-19 | Rays v. Yankees -154 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. How satisfying would it be if, in perhaps his final season in the Majors, future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia were to win his second World Series ring? At the very least, it must be at least a little daunting for a team (like Tampa Bay) to know that it will be facing the active pitcher with the most wins in the league (251). And the fact that Sabathia can still bring it only adds to that intimidation factor. There are plenty of starters in the league who would love to have a winning record (5-4 in Sabathia's case) with a 4.03 ERA after 14 starts. So, the fact that this is far from the veteran southpaw's best season doesn't really matter at this point. Sabathia still has some life left in that left arm and perhaps the most telling stat is the fact that Yanks are 8-6 in his starts this season. He also has some very good numbers against the Rays, with 18 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 52 career starts covering a whopping 338 innings. And Sabathia hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight starts vs. the Rays going back to July of 2017. Take the Yankees. |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers are likely in the market for a starting pitcher in the next two weeks as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. But until they get one, they will keep sending guys like journeyman RHP Adrian Houser out to the mound to fill out the back end of their rotation. Houser is a 26-year-old who's been in the league since 2015, and has primarily been used as a reliever this season. Indeed, he's had just five starts this year. Admittedly, Houser's walk rate is probably too high for him to ever ascend to the top of any rotation. But he also possesses a very high strikeout rate and he seems to be getting better with every bit of experience the Crew is willing to give him. This will be his sixth start of the season but only his third at home, where Houser has done by far his best work of 2019. In eight appearances here (two starts) Houser has a 1.88 ERA in just over 18 innings. LHP Max Fried started out hot for the Braves, but in his last eight starts, Fried has allowed 29 runs on 60 hits in 42 1/3 innings raising his ERA from 2.88 to 4.29. Milwaukee's 127-89 (+20 games on the money line) at home, and 52-35 its last 87 vs. NL East division foes. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +192 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Ariel Jurado is a 23-year old, second-year starter for the Rangers who potentially has a bright future in the Majors -- a future that could last quite a long time. Sure, Jurado's numbers this season don't jump off the page at you -- a 5-4 record with a 4.23 ERA in 19 games, (nine starts). But when you consider that that ERA is almost two runs below his number in 2018 (5.93), then you can see what an improvement Jurado has made between last season and this. After seven shutout innings in his last start in June, Jurado looked like he might have a serious breakout, but he threw in a big clunker in his next start and was "rewarded" with a trip back to the bullpen on July 7 -- throwing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in a Rangers victory. The young RH will come back to the rotation this afternoon to face a very good Astros team. But it's also a team he's done well against in his career, going 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games (one start) vs. Houston. The Rangers have taken four of the last five meetings between these Lone Star state rivals, and are a live underdog this afternoon. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats came back and won on Saturday night, thanks to a bullpen meltdown by the Phillies. Thus, Washington will go for the series sweep on the road this afternoon, behind one of its hottest pitchers in RH Anibal Sanchez. The Phils will counter with veteran RH Jake Arrieta, who got knocked around pretty good before the All-Star break thanks to some elbow issues. But the 33-year-old is one of the toughest players in the league and he used the break to heal up a bit and has been cleared for this start today. One thing that's given Sanchez fits in the past has been pitching at Citizens Bank Park. In 14 appearances here (all starts), Sanchez is 2-8 with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in just under 75 innings. And he's also 5-11 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 career starts vs. the Phillies covering just over 124 innings. Meanwhile, despite Arrieta's recent struggles, the Phils are 4-2 in his six starts since the beginning of June and they haven't lost one of his home starts in almost two months (May 15 vs. Milwaukee). Take Philadelphia. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -205 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Two All Star starters from the AL squad will face off this afternoon as RH Marcus Stroman and the Jays finish off this three-game series in the Bronx against the Yankees and RH Masahiro Tanaka. While Stroman pitched like an All-Star right up to the break, Tanaka certainly did not. The mid-summer break couldn't have come at a better time for Tanaka, who has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last three. But most of that damage was due to a particularly ugly start on June 29 in London against the Red Sox (6 ER in 0.2 IP). If you take that one out of the mix, Tanaka's recent numbers look pretty good (and the Yanks are 3-0 in those last three starts anyway). The fact that he has a 3.86 ERA overall tells you how well Tanaka has pitched aside from that disaster in London. And Tanaka loves pitching against the Jays as he is 11-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 starts against them. Moreover, those 11 wins are the most he's posted against any opponent. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take New York. |
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07-13-19 | Giants v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Davies may have felt a little upset after being snubbed for an NL All-Star Team spot last week. After all, the 26-year-old RHP is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts. And those are better stats than some of the pitchers who got picked to represent the NL -- which lost to the AL in the game, 4-3. But if Davies feels that way, then the best thing he can do is prove the rest of this season that he should've been selected for the mid-summer classic. He'll go up against a guy who's made four All Star appearances in his career in 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. If Bumgarner was trying to impress potential trade suitors this season by presenting himself as an attractive veteran southpaw, then he has a lot of work to do. Mad-Bum is just 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA in his 19 starts so far. And he's been much worse on the road, going 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in eight starts away from Oracle Park (as opposed to 3-2 and 3.62 in 11 starts in San Fran). The Giants are also an awful 8-20 in Bumgarner's last 28 starts away from home. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +158 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. Dodgers RHP Ross Stripling began the season in the L.A. rotation. But he didn't last even the first month in that role, though it was due to no fault of his own as Stripling compiled a 2.65 ERA over his first six starts covering 34 innings. But some injured starters returned to the rotation and Stripling found himself in the bullpen at the end of April. After a bad outing in his last appearance in April, Stripling settled down and didn't allow more than one earned run in any single bullpen outing from the beginning of May through June 20, picking up two wins (vs. no losses) along the way. Now Stripling has found himself back in the rotation thanks to a forearm injury to LHP Rich Hill, who likely won't be back until late August. So far, Stripling's latest stint as a starter hasn't gone as he would have liked. But perhaps a start against the Red Sox will help turn things around. In 16 career inter-league appearances (four starts), Stripling is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just over 41 innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrid 6-12 (minus 19 games on the money line) with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound this season. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |