Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-07-24 | Red Sox v. Braves -168 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Boston Red Sox. While the Orioles and Yankees are doing what many people predicted they would do (win games), the Red Sox are somewhat surprisingly holding their own in the AL East so far. It's been Boston's pitching which has gotten the job done, although the hitting came through on Sunday after they plated just four runs the previous three games. They've also been facing mostly sub-par competition and that ends today with a trip to Atlanta. Surprise star RH Kutter Crawford will go to the hill against another surprise in LH Reynaldo Lopez. The 30-year-old Lopez is making Atlanta his fifth MLB stop and so far the trip south is agreeing with him. In five starts covering 30 IP, Lopez is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Sox are struggling against LH pitching this season, hitting just .239 vs. southpaws. And they're 75-107 (minus 11.4 net games) as an underdog. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 206-102 (+32.0 net games) as a favorite, and 11-4, 73%, off 3+ losses. In two starts this season here at Truist Park, Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA (1 R in 13 IP) and 0.85 WHIP. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-06-24 | Tigers +106 v. Guardians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Cleveland Guardians. In 2019, a 23-year-old Jack Flaherty looked like he might become one of the best starters in baseball when the RH won 11 games with a 2.75 ERA, striking out 231 batters in 196 1/3 IP for the Cardinals. He finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting that season but nobody knew at that time that it might be the pinnacle of his MLB career. Multiple injuries ensued in the coming seasons and Flaherty was finally traded to the Orioles last July, but failed to re-capture that form from four seasons earlier. Now with Detroit, Flaherty is up to his old tricks -- seemingly out of nowhere. The ERA is a bit high at 4.00, but the now 28-year-old has his strikeouts back as he leads the AL with 50 of them through six starts (36 innings). His last start was a bad beat as Flaherty threw 6 2/3 two-hit innings with 14 Ks and one walk, but his new team still lost to his old team (St. Louis), 2-1. A similar effort should get it done tonight as Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight meetings with Cleveland. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-05-24 | Braves -128 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the season-ending injury to strikeout king, Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried is now the ace of the Atlanta pitching staff. And heading into this season, there was a huge question mark hanging over the 30-year-old as Fried missed almost all of 2023 with a variety of ailments (forearm strain, hamstring, blister). It's only six starts into 2024, but so far the Braves are breathing a sigh of relief as it appears Fried has barely missed a beat. Over 31 1/3 IP, the veteran southpaw is 2-0 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with just 26 hits allowed and he already has a complete game, three-hit shutout to his credit. That was two starts ago and he followed that one up with another gem, tossing six hitless/scoreless innings in Seattle on Monday. He'll try to keep the scoreless innings coming in Tinseltown against one of the best lineups in the game. In eight career starts vs. the Dodgers, Fried is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA with 56 Ks and 11 BBs in just under 44 innings. Dating back to last season, Fried has won his last eight decisions, and the Braves are 11-1 in his last 12 starts. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-03-24 | Red Sox -101 v. Twins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the the Boston Red Sox over the Minnesota Twins. There has been a lot of talk about the Yankees and Orioles this season and how they're going to battle it out for supremacy in the AL East (the two just finished a four-game series in Baltimore). But very quietly only 2 1/2 games out of first with an 18-14 record sit the Red Sox while just about nobody notices. And that's probably just fine with everyone in Boston. The Yanks and O's deserve all the praise and while the Sox perhaps can't match their hitting, their 2.58 team ERA is not only better than both NY and Baltimore but it is tops in the Majors. They just took two of three at home vs. the Giants and now they head to Minnesota for three against the Twins. Tanner Houck is one of the reasons for the Sox success. The 28-year-old RH sports an absurd 1.60 ERA through six starts and he already has a complete game shutout to his credit. In three career starts vs. the Twins, Houck is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 17 1/3 IP. Take the Red Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-30-24 | Yankees -113 v. Orioles | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. Last night, the Pinstripes were shutout, 2-0, by the Grayson Rodriguez and three Orioles' relievers. Tonight, the Yankees will look to bounce back, and I believe they will. New York is 4-0 this season (and 118-70, +26.3 net games) following a game where it failed to score a run. And it's 638-435 (+54.9 net games) after not scoring 3+ runs in its previous game. The pitching matchup this evening will be Dean Kremer for Baltimore vs. Nestor Cortes for New York. Cortes has made seven career starts vs. Baltimore, and has an ERA of 1.73 and a 0.88 WHIP in those seven games. In contrast, Kremer has a 5.04 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in nine career starts vs. the Yankees. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -224 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets. Normally, a team acquiring a player as talented as Tyler Glasnow in the off-season would be headline news. But because the Dodgers welcomed a pair of Japanese superstars this winter, Glasnow's trade from the Rays went almost unnoticed. That's probably fine with the 30-year-old RHP who has always had the talent to be an ace, but who has been hampered throughout his pro career by a series of injuries. Now healthy and happy to be with a team that is loaded on offense, Glasnow has assumed the role of #1 starter and it seems to suit him just fine. Through his first five Dodger starts, Glasnow is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and although he got bombed in his last start vs. the Nationals, it's been reported that he was dealing with an illness at the time. Look for him to bounce back this afternoon and get back to the form that he had when he struck out 14 Twins two starts ago in Minneapolis. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Boston Red Sox. The Pirates have a way of extending the careers of veteran starters who appear to have their best years behind them. Ten years ago, it was Edinson Volquez, who looked like he was done at age 30 before going to Pittsburgh and putting up a 13-7 record with a 3.04 ERA. Then a 38-year-old AJ Burnett had a similar revival in his second stint with the club the following year. The Bucs' latest reclamation project is LHP Martin Perez. The 33-year-old regressed in his second season with the Rangers, seeing his ERA go from 2.89 in 2022 to 4.45 last season. The Pirates signed the free agent to a one-year, $8 million contract in the off-season and so far Perez is looking like he's going to be worth every bit of it. In four starts covering 24 2/3 IP, Perez is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA. He'll go in his fifth start this afternoon as the Red Sox go for a road sweep in Pittsburgh. In 53 career inter-league games (44 starts), Perez is 17-14 with a 3.79 ERA. And he's 5-2 lifetime in 10 games vs. Boston. Take the Bucs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-20-24 | Orioles -122 v. Royals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Kansas City Royals. Coming off of their 101-win season, which ended with a disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Rangers, it was obvious the Orioles needed a bona-fide #1 starter. The O's got their ace over the winter when they traded two of their talented prospects to the Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Corbin Burnes. It hasn't taken long for the 29-year-old starter to make quite an impact with his new AL club. In fact, Baltimore is already planning a Corbin Burnes bobblehead night at a home game in August. Burnes will get his fifth start as an Oriole tonight and so far he has not disappointed his new team, going 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA with 25 strikeouts and four walks in 23 2/3 innings. In four career starts vs. the Royals, covering just under 24 innings, Burnes is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Finally, the Birds are 67-31 (+22.6 net games) as a favorite, including 23-9 their last 32 on the road. Take the Orioles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-19-24 | Mets v. Dodgers -192 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -192 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets. The Dodgers went all out and spent a lot of money to nab the off-season's biggest prize import from Japan in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And when the 25-year-old RHP promptly went out on March 21 in Korea and lasted only one inning, getting blasted by the Padres, you could hear the collective gasp from across the Pacific Ocean. But the three subsequent starts back here in the U.S. seem to demonstrate that Yamamoto will be just fine and one can discount that start in Korea. Meanwhile, a year ago there were thoughts of a Mets team that could possibly vie for a division title and more. Now, however, this appears to be club that is adrift and struggling to find what used to make it click so frequently. LHP Sean Manaea came to NY from San Diego and looked very good this spring -- and also in his first two starts. But the old Sean Manaea showed up in his last start as he allowed eight runs (six earned) on nine hits in just 3 2/3 IP in a loss to the Royals. Even worse: in six career starts vs. the Dodgers, his ERA is a sky-high 8.10. Los Angeles is 52-21 (+20.4 net games) off a loss, including 9-2 off a shutout loss. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-24 | Guardians +110 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Guardians over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox held the Guardians scoreless yesterday. But that shutout win was an anomaly for the Red Sox, as they've given up six or more runs in six of their last nine games. For the season, the Guardians are 9-3 on the road, and are hitting .261, and averaging 5.7 rpg. In contrast, at home this season, the Red Sox are a poor 3-6, and are hitting just .201, and averaging 3.4 rpg. Likewise, the home/road pitching stats favor Cleveland. The Red Sox have a 4.07 ERA at Fenway Park this season, while the Guardians' road ERA is a spectacular 2.36. We'll take Cleveland as an underdog this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-17-24 | Yankees -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. It's been an ugly start for RHP Kevin Gausman of the Jays. He's made three starts, and is 0-2 with an 11.58 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. His worst start was 11 days ago against these Yankees. The Blue Jays lost, 9-8, and Gausman was responsible for six runs (five earned) in 1 1/3 innings pitched. Then he followed up that game with another dismal effort at home vs. Colorado (3 2/3 IP, 6 R, 10 H). Gausman is back home this afternoon, but he's burned money at home, with his teams going 16-18 (minus 19.5 net games) in his starts, including 0-5 his last five vs. division rivals. Marcus Stroman will toe the rubber for the Pinstripes, and he's given up just four earned runs over 17 innings (2.12 ERA; 1.05 WHIP). Even better: in 2 career starts vs. the Blue Jays, he has a 0.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, including six scoreless innings 12 days ago. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Texas Rangers. The offensive outburst that many felt the Rangers were capable of finally came forth on Tuesday in Game 4 of the World Series. And it came forth like a dam break. By the end of the 3rd inning, Texas already had a 10-0 lead and the Rangers cruised from there. But the night was not without some bad news for the team from the Lone Star State. Outfielder Adolis Garcia, arguably the Rangers' post-season MVP, tried to play last night after exiting Game 3 with a side injury but he was ruled out of action for the remainder of the series. The series returns to the #1 starters tonight as RHs Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen take center stage in this must win game for the home team. That "home" part is important for Gallen who was nearly unstoppable at Chase Field in the regular season. In 16 starts here covering 102 innings, Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP vs. just 5-6 and 4.42 in 18 starts on the road. Needless to say, this is his biggest home start by far. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Texas Rangers. It's Halloween and things are getting pretty scary for the Diamondbacks after they lost their first home World Series game in franchise history on Monday (they won all four home games in their 2001 Championship over the Yankees). The Rangers pulled out a 3-1 victory in Game 2 last night behind some solid relief pitching after starter Max Scherzer lasted just three innings. Tonight they will send out LH Andrew Heaney in what will undoubtedly be the veteran's biggest start of his career. The 32-year-old has just one prior start against the D-Backs and it was not good as Heaney allowed six runs in just 4 2/3 innings. It wouldn't mean much if that start was early in Heaney's career but in fact it was just this past May. He could be up against it again tonight as the D-Backs lineup pretty much had its way with Rangers southpaw starter Jordan Montgomery in Game 2 back in Arlington. Heaney was just 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 15 road games (12 starts) this season. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-24-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The D-Backs upset the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark to force a seventh game of this NLCS tonight. The big home run hitting bats of the Phils were silenced for the most part by Merrill Kelly in a relatively easy 5-1 victory for Arizona. It's only the second time in this post-season that the Phillies have not scored at least three runs (12 games). Tonight should be a different story as Philadelphia's bats will almost certainly come alive against rookie RH Brandon Pfaadt. Notwithstanding his stellar effort in Arizona's Game 3 win, the 25-year-old from Louisville, KY was just 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 19 games (18 starts) for Arizona in the regular season. Don't be surprised to see the Phils hitters swinging early and often against Pfaadt to try to gain the advantage in this must-win game. This will be Pfaadt's first-ever start at Citizens Bank, a place that's known to be particularly unkind to rookies visiting for the first time. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-23-23 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros 'under' the total. The Rangers and Astros go to a winner-take-all seventh game in this Lone Star State championship series. For the Astros, it will be business as usual if they win as they've been to four World Series in the past six years but for the Rangers it will be territory that's been uncharted since 2011. It's going to be a rematch of the Game 3 starters which means RHPs Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer. Both are looking for redemption tonight -- Javier for his less-than-stellar regular season and Scherzer for his awful performance in that Game 3 when he was chased after only four innings. Expect a much better outing from the three-time Cy Young tonight as the 39-year-old has thrived throughout his career in pressure-cooker situations such as this one. Javier, on the other hand, just needs to keep doing what he has been in the post-season for his team to have a chance. In two playoff starts covering 10 2/3 innings, Javier is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA with 12 strikeouts. Take Game 7 Under the total As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-23-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 runs over the Philadelphia Phillies. After their win in Game 5, the Phillies are one victory away from returning to the World Series for a second straight season. Arizona took the first two of its home NLCS games, but couldn't make it three in a row like the Astros did over in the American League. So it's not a must-win situation for the home team tonight but rest assured that the Phillies want to win it now so they can get an extra day off. For the Diamondbacks, they want to show up for starter Merrill Kelly tonight, something they didn't do in Game 2 here six days ago. Kelly didn't pitch that poorly -- only three hits allowed in 5 2/3 innings -- but the bats fell silent and the Phils cruised to a 10-0 victory in that one. But the veteran RH needs to avoid the long ball -- something he didn't do in Game 2 -- while Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker & Co. need to jump on Phils starter Aaron Nola early. Arizona is 9-1 this season behind Kelly when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest. And the Diamondbacks are a solid 46-49 (+11.3 net games) as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, Nola's teams have gone 14-20 (minus 9.7 net games) in his next start after not allowing an earned run in his previous start. I think this will be a tight game, and we'll take the 1.5 runs with the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-22-23 | Rangers +110 v. Astros | Top | 9-2 | Win | 110 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. After going undefeated in their first seven games of the 2023 post-season, the Rangers have now lost three straight -- at home no less -- to fall behind in this ALCS, 3-2. Game 5 was especially frustrating as Texas was three outs away from heading to Houston with a 3-2 series lead when the wheels fell off in the ninth inning after leading 4-2. But this series is far from over as the Rangers have been ultra-tough on the road all postseason and if they can win tonight they'll be just one more road victory away from getting to the World Series for the third time in Franchise history. They appear to have a strong edge in the pitching match-up in this Game 6 as RH Nathan Eovaldi will take his 3-0 playoff record with a 2.29 ERA to the mound opposite the Astros' southpaw Framber Valdez (0-2 and 11.57 in two starts). Not only have the Rangers won all three of the veteran RH's starts this post-season, but they also found themselves on the winning end in six of his last nine regular season starts. And Eovaldi's teams have gone 13-2 (87%) in his career playoff starts. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-21-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +116 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Philadelphia Phillies. With their dramatic victory last night here in the desert, the hometown Diamondbacks leveled this series and in the process have guaranteed a return to Philadelphia for a Game 6. It was a huge comeback win and brings this series back to the #1 starters, tied at two games apiece. The Phillies will go with RH Zack Wheeler while RH Zac Gallen will get his second NLCS start for the D-Backs tonight -- his first at home. That second part is important as the 28-year-old dominated his opposition in the regular season here at Chase Field. In 16 starts here covering 102 innings, Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Those numbers compare very favorably to his 5-6 record and 4.42 ERA in 18 starts (108 innings) on the road in the regular season. And although he lost Game 1 of this series, Gallen has a career 3-1 record with a 2.22 ERA in five regular season starts vs. the Phillies covering 24 1/3 innings. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers 'over' the total. The Astros got their bats out in Game 4 on Thursday night and they plated 10 runs to even this series which plays its final game in Arlington tonight (Game 5). Game 1 in Houston featured the same two starters as tonight (RH Justin Verlander vs. LH Jordan Montgomery) and that was a 2-0 Rangers victory, but that's not the way these games normally go. In fact in seven of the last 11 meetings between these two, one or both of the clubs have scored double-digit runs. So don't expect a repeat of Game 1 as both of these teams know the importance of jumping out to an early lead and whoever wins this game will be just one victory away from the World Series. Yes, LH Jordan Montgomery has been very good in this post-season but it's unlikely he would go more than six innings tonight and the Rangers used a ton of pitchers in Game 4 so their bullpen is stretched very thin right now. The over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings of these two. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Philadelphia Phillies. So much for NL "small ball." The Phillies have dominated their opposition in this post-season, not by getting on base and stealing second or bunting players over. They've done it by way of the long ball -- 19 in their eight post-season games so far. Many of those have been of the solo variety, but that hardly matters when you're sending balls over the fence as often as they are. That could change with a trip to the Desert. The Phillies won't be in their homer-friendly ballpark tonight but instead in a place where the long ball doesn't happen nearly as often. They'll also be facing a starting pitcher that they've never seen before in 25-year-old rookie RH Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt doesn't have numbers that jump off the page at you, but guess what else he doesn't do? He doesn't give up home runs when pitching at Chase Field (only one long ball in his last five starts here). And Pfaadt shut down the Dodgers in his only NLDS start against them (4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER). Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-23 | Astros +120 v. Rangers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Tonight will represent a couple of long-awaited events in baseball. It will be the first Championship Series game to be played in Arlington, TX since 2011, so the crowd will surely be amped up, especially given that the home team already has a 2-0 lead in this series. But tonight's ALCS Game 3 will also be Max Scherzer's first start in over a month. The future Hall-of-Fame RH pitcher hasn't been on the mound since a September 12 start against the Blue Jays. Scherzer hit the bench with a shoulder issue after that appearance but has been deemed ready to come back tonight on the biggest of stages. But don't expect the three-time Cy Young winner to pitch more than four innings and there-in may lie the problem for the Rangers, who have been getting deep runs from their starters throughout their undefeated post-season. In 27 career post-season games (22 starts) Scherzer is just 7-7 and he has a career 4.56 ERA in five starts here at Globe Life Field. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers 'under' the total. If there's one pitcher in these MLB Playoffs who wants to atone for a less than ideal, let-down of a regular season, it's the Astros Cristian Javier. The veteran RH had a breakout campaign in 2022, winning 11 of 25 starts with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Big things were expected from the 26-year-old entering 2023, but instead of building on those numbers, Javier struggled through much of the season, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts. Fortunately his teammates picked him up and Houston won its third straight AL West title (sixth of the last seven years) and now Javier looks to redeem himself in a big way. He's already shown how great he can be in his only ALDS start, tossing five shutout innings vs. the Twins, allowing just one hit while striking out nine and walking none. With 3-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer on the other side tonight, runs could be very scarce at Globe Life Field. The under was 4-1-1 in Javier's last six regular season starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies 'under' the total. It didn't take long for the Phillies to show that they mean business in their second straight NLCS. Kyle Schwarber hit the first pitch he saw over the right field wall and Bryce Harper homered two batters later to set the tone in Game 1. The Phillies' hitters ambushed Zac Gallen's fastball last night and held on for a 5-3 win to take a 1-0 series lead on the D-Backs. Philadelphia's big bats will see a different type of pitcher tonight in the D-Backs Merrill Kelly. Gallen throws his fastball 50% of the time and the Phillies jumped all over it in Game 1. The 35-year-old Kelly throws a lot more off-speed pitches and that may cause problems for the free-swinging Philadelphia lineup. But the D-Backs hitters could have the same problems against Philly RH Aaron Nola, who has been stellar this post-season with a 2-0 record and 1.42 ERA. Kelly hasn't been getting love from his hitters lately as the D-Backs have plated more than three runs in just five of his last 14 starts. And the D-Backs are 19-12 Under behind Kelly this season, and 72-50 Under in his career starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-12-23 | Braves -140 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are trying to knock off the NL East Champion Braves in the Division Series as a Wild Card for the second straight season and they're one win away from doing it. Philly pounded the Braves' pitching last night with 11 hits -- six of them home runs in a 10-2 demolition. The only good news for Atlanta is that it had 10 hits of its own in the game. On paper at least, tonight's must win game for the Braves is a pitching mis-match as they're back to their ace, RH Spencer Strider while the Phils will go with LHP Ranger Suarez. Strider will be top 3 in the Cy Young balloting while Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 22 starts this season. That doesn't mean the visitors can look past this game, but Strider did lead the league in strikeouts and he pitched a gem in Game 1 only to lose when his team failed to score a run. One thing about Suarez is that he struggled mightily at home this season, going 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in 12 starts here at Citizens Bank Park (vs. 3-3 and 2.75 on the road). Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Braves' Spencer Strider will be starting Game 4 of the NLDS tonight with the Phillies handing the ball to Ranger Suarez. I like the Over, as both of these clubs feature plenty of free-swingers and power hitters capable of clearing the wall in any of the 30 MLB venues, but it's even more likely to happen here in Philadelphia. Indeed, only three other parks in baseball—Coors Field, Great American Ballpark, and American Family Field (Miller Park)—have been as friendly to power hitters as the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Ballpark. And we saw that yesterday when 12 runs were scored in Philly's 10-2 victory. In Strider's last six regular season starts, a total of 70 runs were scored, with less than eight plated in only one of those. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -116 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. With a dominant win behind Cristian Javier on Tuesday, the Astros are just one win away from advancing to their seventh straight ALCS. It may seem like a forgone conclusion that they will get there however the 'Stros have a very formidable opponent standing in front of them on the road this afternoon. The Central Division Champion Twins will send RH Joe Ryan to the mound to make his MLB post-season debut. The 27-year-old has emerged from nowhere to be one of the most consistent starters in the AL over the past two seasons. Overall in 2023, Ryan went 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 29 starts but he was much more dominant at home. In 14 starts at Target Field, Ryan logged a 7-4 record with a 3.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (vs. 4-6 and 5.22/1.26 in 15 starts on the road). In his last six regular season starts -- all in September -- the Twins went 4-2. And in 13 daytime starts this season, Ryan logged a 3.65 ERA vs. 5.24 in 16 starts under the lights. Take Minny. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-11-23 | Braves +110 v. Phillies | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. With both Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton out for the NLDS, the Braves are left with some less-than-ideal choices to start Game 3 tonight. Those choices came down to Bryce Elder and top prospect AJ Smith Shawver, but Atlanta is very hesitant to throw a 20-year-old out there in front of an insane Phillies crowd for his first MLB playoff start. So it will be the 24-year-old RH from Texas with the weight of the Braves' post-season hopes on his broad shoulders. Elder broke out in his second MLB season, going 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts for Atlanta. More importantly, in his only start at Citizens Bank Park, Elder threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits with six strikeouts and two walks in a 5-1 Braves victory on June 22. The Phillies will go with RH Aaron Nola this evening. Nola faced the Braves three times in 2023 and although he had no record against them, he was on the losing side in two of those games, including that June 22 match-up with Elder on the other side. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins -128 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -128 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. In what may be one of the riskiest moves in the MLB playoffs, the Astros will send RHP Cristian Javier to the mound to start this critical ALDS Game 3 today in Minneapolis (the series is tied 1-1). Back in the Spring, this wouldn't be considered risky at all as the 26-year-old was coming off of a career season in 2022, having gone 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA in his first campaign as a full-time starter. But Javier struggled mightily through most of 2023, having seen his ERA balloon by more than two runs (4.56) while his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically (11.7 to 8.8) and his walks have increased. On the other side, the Twins have to feel pretty good about having a veteran like Sonny Gray available for their first home ALDS game since getting swept by the Yankees in 2019. The 33-year-old RH has a ton of post-season pitching experience going all the way back to 2013 when he was a rookie with the Oakland As. In five playoff starts covering 26 1/3 innings, Gray has logged a 2.39 ERA. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -147 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. In one of the biggest shockers of the MLB post-season, Dodger legend and future Hall-of-Fame pitcher Clayton Kershaw lasted just 1/3 of an inning in Game 1 of this series on Saturday night as the Diamondbacks rolled to an easy 11-2 victory. If Saturday night was Dodger pitching past and present then tonight will be the future as 24-year-old RH Bobby Miller takes the mound in what is pretty much a must-win situation for the NL West champs. Miller had a fantastic first season in the Majors, going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts covering just over 124 innings. In two starts this season vs. Arizona covering 12 innings, Miller is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Since the beginning of August, the Dodgers have won eight of Miller's 11 starts, including two victories against this D-Backs team as well as wins against the Braves, Brewers, Mariners, and Giants. Prior to the loss in Game 1, the Dodgers won five straight vs. Arizona. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -146 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite having the most potent offense in the National League -- including the best player in OF Ronald Acuna -- the Braves were completely shut down by the Phillies in Atlanta in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday. Philadelphia's pitching and defense completely dominated Game 1 despite a solid outing from Braves ace Spencer Strider. Now the Phils will try to take a 2-0 series lead behind #1 starter Zack Wheeler who was dominant in his Wild Card series start last Tuesday. But that was against the Marlins and now he'll be going up against a lineup that is an order of magnitude more dangerous in the Braves. Atlanta will go with LH Max Fried. Since the 29-year-old southpaw returned from an early season injury he's been one of the best starters in the game. In nine starts since August 4, Fried went 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 12 walks in just under 52 innings and the Braves are 8-1 in those starts and 11-3 in his 14 starts this season. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Twins +130 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 130 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. The visiting teams in the first game of the ALDS yesterday were at a disadvantage in that they couldn't go back to their #1 starters while the home teams -- off for a week -- had fresh pitching rotations. That didn't seem to matter to the Rangers or Phillies but the Astros took full advantage and chased Twins starter Bailey Ober after just three innings. But now Minny is back to #1 starter Pablo Lopez who was brilliant in the Twins' first Wild Card game last Tuesday. In that one, the 27-year-old RH -- who the Twins acquired from Miami in exchange for the now 2-time batting champion Luis Arraez -- threw 5 2/3 solid innings, allowing one run on five hits in a 3-1 victory over Toronto. Now with full rest, Lopez will go to the mound tonight in an effort to even this series. Lopez did his best work on the road in the 2023 regular season as his ERA away from Target Field was more than a run lower than it was at home (3.10 vs. 4.21). Also, since August 1, Minnesota has gone 9-3 in Lopez' last 12 starts. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves come into this game having tied the 2019 Twins' record for 307 home runs in the regular season. Certainly, the Braves are the favorite to win the World Series, and we'll back them in this Game 1 behind Spencer Strider. This season, Strider made 12 starts vs. division rivals, and the Braves won all 12. Meanwhile, the Phillies were 3-6 in Ranger Suarez's nine starts vs. National League East division rivals. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Twins +142 v. Astros | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:45 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. For all that Justin Verlander has accomplished in his pro baseball career, you might be surprised to learn how much the veteran has struggled in the post-season recently. In 2019, Verlander went 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six playoff starts against the Rays, Yankees, and Nationals. And then last season, Verlander posted a 5.85 ERA in four starts against the Mariners, Yankees, and Phillies. Nevertheless, the 'Stros will send their 39-year-old future Hall-of-Fame RHP out to start their 2023 post-season this afternoon. Hardly anyone has mentioned the Twins but people -- especially opponents -- had better start taking notice. Minnesota easily dispatched of Toronto in the first round and in the process got a major monkey off its back (an 18-game playoff losing streak coming in). Minny will send RHP Bailey Ober to the mound at Minute Maid Park today. You could say the 28-year-old is the opposite of Verlander -- no post-season experience (good or bad) in his past and a long way from Cooperstown. But Ober had a 5-3 record on the road this season (vs. 3-3 at home) and the Twins have won four of his last five overall. And the Twins have gone 17-9 (+12.7 net games) as an underdog with Ober on the mound. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-04-23 | Marlins +145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies. Heading into the season, you figured that if the Marlins made it to the playoffs, they would almost certainly lead off with RH Sandy Alcantara. But the reigning NL Cy Young went on the IL in early September and so the Fish turned to LH Jesus Luzardo last night in Game 1 of the Wild Card series. After a tough loss, Miami will turn to another southpaw tonight in Braxton Garrett. Meanwhile, Phils RH Zack Wheeler was dealing for the home team -- not surprising given his career 2.78 ERA in the post-season. Tonight they will turn to RHP Aaron Nola -- an ace in his own right when he's on. The problem is that the 30-year-old hasn't been particularly good in October/November as Nola owns a 4.91 ERA in five post-season starts (all in 2022). Another potential issue tonight is Nola's career numbers vs. the Marlins. In 23 starts vs. Miami, Nola has an almost incomprehensible 5-10 record despite a decent ERA (3.53). And this season Nola went 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts vs. the Fish. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-23 | Rangers +137 v. Rays | Top | 4-0 | Win | 137 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers took 4 of 6 from the Rays this season, and I like them as an underdog in Game 1 of this season. Jordan Montgomery has given up 2 earned runs over his last 27 innings (0.66 ERA), and his strikeout to walk ration over this stretch is 22:5. In contrast, Tyler Glasnow's last four starts have been ugly: 14 runs over 20 1/3 innings, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 28:13. Over the last three seasons, the Rangers have gone 5-5 here in Tampa, with an average price of +155. We'll take the underdog Rangers this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves have captured the top prize in the NL (best record) but they simply can't stop winning despite having nothing else to play for until the NLDS. They did it again on Thursday, beating the Cubs at home behind -- what else -- great pitching and timely hitting. Now the Cubs need to win more than ever as the Marlins came back to beat the Mets last night which means Chicago is currently on the outside looking in on the Wild Card race. They will face another team with nothing to play for in the Brewers tonight in Milwaukee. There's probably nobody they'd rather have on the mound to start this crucial game than veteran RH Kyle Hendricks. Despite an overall 6-8 record, the 33-year-old has logged a very solid 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 133 innings. In 33 career regular season starts vs. the Brewers covering 188 innings, Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and he's 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road this season (vs. 3-5 and 4.16 at home). Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-28-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -173 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays have been blanked two straight games by the Pinstripes, with Gerrit Cole throwing a complete game, 2-hit shutout last night. Toronto generally bounces back off poor offensive games, as it's 39-22 (+11.5 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs, and also 42-30 (+9.6 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs in back to back games. Chris Bassitt will toe the rubber for the Jays tonight, and he shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his lone 2023 start vs. New York -- a 3-0 Toronto victory. Luke Weaver will get the start for New York, and he's 1-9 in his last 10 decisions on the road (dating back to 2020). This season, he's 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -101 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Despite having everything to play for, the Blue Jays couldn't score a run against the Yankees last night and now the AL Wild Card race is even tighter. These two will go at it again tonight in Toronto with likely AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole going to the mound for the final time this season. Toronto's Jose Berrios, on the other hand, isn't in line for a post-season award, but he has a chance to shine tonight, and be a difference-maker. With the Jays' post-season chances hanging in the balance, I look for the 29-year-old veteran RHP to turn in a quality start in what just might be the biggest game of his career. Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA overall this season but here at Rogers Centre he is 6-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts (vs. just 5-6 and 3.97 in 17 on the road). Toronto is 40-20 after scoring less than 2 runs, including 15-6 off a shutout loss. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-23 | Astros v. Mariners -140 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Houston blew out Seattle, 5-1, last night to move to 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the chase for the final playoff spot in the American League. Seattle will turn to RHP George Kirby tonight, as it looks to close the gap between the teams. The Mariners have been solid as a favorite of -150 (or less), as they've gone 71-44 (+15.9 net games), including 9-2 at home behind Kirby. And Kirby has been sensational vs. the powerful Astros lineup, as he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his three career starts. He has faced Houston just once here, at home, and it was his best performance, as he scattered six hits over seven scoreless innings. The Mariners are a super 52-34 (+22.2 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-23 | Pirates v. Reds -165 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rookie southpaw Andrew Abbott will get the start for the Reds, who are looking to bounce back from a collapse Wednesday against Minnesota. The Reds led 3-2 before the Twins erupted for three runs in the 9th off closer Alexis Diaz. With that loss, Cincy is a 0.5 game back of the Cubs and Marlins in the chase for the final Wild Card berth. Tonight, Abbott will be working with extra rest, and the Reds are 5-1 in his starts when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Even better: in Abbott's lone start vs. the Buccos this season, he struck out 9, against 0 walks, and Cincy cruised to a 9-2 win. Pittsburgh has yet to name a starter, but Luis Ortiz is the likely candidate. In his previous start, he was ineffective, and gave up six hits and a season-high six walks in just 4 2/3 innings, and the Bucs lost, 6-3, to the Yankees. For the season, Ortiz has a 5.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. The Reds are 4-1 this year vs. NL starters with a WHIP at 1.65 (or worse), and 41-25 (+20.2 net games) vs. losing teams. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 29-51 (minus 7.5 net games) vs. winning teams (compared to 43-30 (+18.7 net games) vs. non-winning teams). Take Cincinnati. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-23 | Giants +102 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona. The Giants are now 3 games behind the Cubs for the final Wild Card berth, so the pressure is definitely on in the final 11 games of the season. Tonight, San Francisco will turn to its ace, Logan Webb, who has a 3.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. Webb has been terrific vs. Arizona in his career, as he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly got bombed in his last outing, as he gave up 7 runs in five innings. And that was the 2nd time in his last four starts that he surrendered 7 runs in 5 innings. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox. If the Rangers fail to make the 2023 Post-season (right now they are in an almost statistical tie for the final Al Wild Card spot) it might not be fair to call their second-half collapse "epic," but it will still be a huge disappointment to anyone who was rooting for them. If you take away the four game sweep of the Blue Jays in Toronto last week, the Rangers have a 6-20 record in their last 26 games going back to August 16. A big part of the problem has been pitching injuries. And in fact tonight's starter, RH Nathan Eovaldi was on the shelf for over a month from July 18 to September 5. Since coming back to the rotation, Texas has treated the 33-year-old with kid gloves, giving Eovaldi starts of 1 1/3, 2 1/3, and 3 1/3 innings respectively. Expect those gloves to come off a bit tonight as the Rangers are in dire need of a quality start from their veteran -- something he did so many times in the first half of the season. In eight career games vs. the Red Sox -- seven starts -- Eovaldi is 3-0. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-18-23 | Phillies +103 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 103 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. If you've ever wondered how important Ronald Acuna is to the Braves as the regular hitter at the top of their lineup, just take a look at the last two Atlanta games. The likely NL MVP exited Friday's game vs. the Marlins with a calf injury and didn't play on Saturday or Sunday. Florida went on to win both games this weekend by a combined score of 27-7. Obviously, there's no panic in the Braves as they have the NL East wrapped up so they will likely leave Acuna out a little while longer if he's anything other than 100%. That will be fine with the Phillies who play the first of three in Atlanta this evening. Zack Wheeler will head to the mound for the visitors in Game 1. The 33-year-old RH is having another solid season, going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 29 starts covering 175 innings. In 26 regular season starts vs. the Braves, Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 164 innings. He had his best start of 2023 here at Truist Park on May 27 (8 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 12 K, 1 BB). Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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09-17-23 | Cubs -112 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubbies will look to snap a 4-game losing streak tonight, and avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks. Chicago will hand the ball to rookie LHP Jordan Wicks, who has been brilliant in his four starts this season. Wicks has allowed just five runs over 22 2/3 innings, for a 1.99 ERA. And, most importantly, Chicago is a perfect 4-0 in his outings. Ryne Nelson will oppose Wicks, and he's made 26 starts for the D-Backs this season. Arizona has won just 11 of those 26 starts, and his ERA is an ugly 5.53. At home, it balloons to 8.59, while it's 9.00 over his last three starts. The D-Backs are 3-10 his last 13 home starts, including 0-5 his last five. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners -115 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, the Mariners and Dodgers were scoreless through 9 innings, and Los Angeles prevailed, 6-2, in extra innings. The Mariners will look to bounce back off that loss on this Sunday, and will turn to RHP Logan Gilbert. In interleague games this season, Gilbert is 7-1 in 11 starts, with a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Even better, when Seattle's lost its two previous games, it's gone 54-40 (+23.40 net games). And it's a stellar 71-50 (+29.4 net games) after scoring less than three runs. Take the Mariners on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-23 | Astros -230 v. Royals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals. The Astros will look to bounce back off 2 losses to start this series, and will send southpaw Framber Valdez to the mound this afternoon. Valdez is a big favorite vs. Royals' RHP Jordan Lyles, and understandably so. Lyles carries a 6.33 ERA into this game (and 8.24 in the daytime), and the Royals have won just five of his 28 starts. Meanwhile, Valdez has a 1.67 daytime ERA and Houston is 11-2 with Valdez as a road favorite priced at -175 (or more) in his career. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-23 | Cubs -130 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Justin Steele is a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award, as he has a 16-3 record, with a 2.49 ERA. In his last start (last Saturday) vs. this Diamondbacks club, he was once again brilliant, as he gave up just one run over seven innings. He's now made three career starts vs. Arizona, and has a 1.00 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP. The Cubs did lose that game, 3-2, which snapped a 9-game win streak by Chicago in Steele's starts. We'll take Chicago tonight, as Steele has a spectacular 0.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last three outings, while his mound opponent -- Brandon Pfaadt -- has a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. It wasn't their worst loss of the season -- back in June they lost to the Marlins, 11-0 -- but the Jays' 10-0 embarrassment on Wednesday here at home to the Rangers means that they are staring down the barrel of a four-game series sweep tonight. Not only have the Rangers won the first three games of this series but they've out-scored the Jays by a total of 26-7 in those. Fortunately, Toronto will send its ace, RH Kevin Gausman to the mound for his 29th start of the season. Gerrit Cole might have the advantage in the AL Cy Young race right now, but Gausman isn't that far behind with an 11-8 record, 3.28 ERA and league-leading 217 strikeouts in just over 167 innings for the Jays so far. In 10 career appearances vs. the Rangers -- nine starts -- Gausman is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 15 walks in just under 58 innings. And Gausman's ERA at home this season is almost a half-run better than it is on the road (3.07 vs. 3.52). Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. With their hopes of winning the AL East all but vanished, the Blue Jays must now focus on nailing down one of the three Wild Card spots. But with their losses to the Rangers the last two nights, that opportunity could be slipping away as well in the ultra-competitive American League playoff race. They'll try to turn this series around tonight as the Rangers and Jays each send a lefty to the mound in this third of four games against each other this week. For Toronto, it will be Japanese veteran Yusei Kikuchi who will get his 29th start of the season. Kikuchi has been very solid if not spectacular in his second season with the Blue Jays. In just under 149 innings, the 32-year-old southpaw is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA and those nine victories represent the most he's had in his five seasons in the Majors. No doubt he'd love to get to double-digit wins tonight and he has a good chance to do that as in five career games vs. Texas (four starts), Kikuchi is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-23 | Rays v. Twins -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays. Last night, the Twins lost, 7-4, as a home underdog to the Rays and Tyler Glasgow. Tonight, Minnesota will be favored behind RHP Joe Ryan. We'll back the home team, as the Twins are a solid 43-22 (+14.6 net games) at home when favored by -150 or less. Even better: Ryan has a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 outings, and is profitable as a favorite in his career starts (26-16), while unprofitable as an underdog. Finally, Tampa has burned money this season as a road underdog (8-14, minus 5.2 net games). Take the Twins to snap their 2-game losing streak. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs have lost the first three games of this series, and will try to salvage one game with a victory this afternoon. Kyle Hendricks will toe the rubber for the home team today, and his teams have gone 55-27 with him on the mound when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 27-7 at home. The Cubs are 7-2 in day games with Hendricks, and 71-41 when priced from -125 to -175, while Arizona is an awful 56-93 (minus 10.1 net games) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take the Cubbies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-23 | A's v. Rangers -226 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland A's. This past Tuesday, Nathan Eovaldi made his return from the injured list, and it didn't go well, to say the least. Eovaldi didn't make it out of the 2nd inning, with 4 runs allowed in 1 1/3, and the Rangers went on to lose, 14-1, to rival Houston. Eovaldi will look to bounce back this evening against the Oakland A's, who took Game 1 of this series on Friday. That was the floundering Rangers' 4th straight loss, overall, so there's now an air of despration in Arlington. The good news is that Eovaldi shut out this A's team earlier this year (8 2/3 innings, 0 runs, 3 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts). His career ERA is 2.97 vs Oakland. The A's are 0-7 off an upset division win if they were a +130 (or greater) underdog in that victory. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-23 | Royals v. Blue Jays -185 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Kansas City Royals. The Blue Jays are barely in the Playoffs, going into Friday's games, as they're a half-game ahead of the Texas Rangers. So, with just 22 games to go, Toronto knows it can't afford to lose games to division cellar-dwellers like Kansas City. The Blue Jays are, of course a heavy favorite. But given that the Royals are 21-67 (minus 25.0 net games) as an underdog priced from +175 to +250, I have no problem laying the big price. Even better: Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, and he's given up just 5.14 hits and 1.55 walks per start. For the season, he has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, and the Blue Jays have won 17 of his 27 starts. Kansas City is a horrible 8-34 on the road vs. starters who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start, and are also 35-88 (minus 34.6 net games) on the road vs. pitchers who give up less than 1.75 walks per start. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals game. The Cardinals exploded for 11 runs against Spencer Strider and the Braves last night, and handed Atlanta its second straight blowout loss, as the Cards also won, 10-6, on Tuesday. Unfortunately for St Louis, it will be facing southpaw Max Fried this evening. And all Fried has done in his career vs. the Redbirds is go 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, as he's given up just 1 run in 25 2/3 innings. Adam Wainwright will get the start for St Louis, and has been stellar in his career vs the Braves, with a 3.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Admittedly, the 42-year-old hurler is on the decline, but he had the best start of his season in his last outing when he allowed 1 run over 6 innings vs. the Padres. The Cards are 58-45 UNDER vs. lefties. And the Braves have gone UNDER 69% after allowing 10 runs in back to back games. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cincinnati Reds. The Mariners dropped their 3rd straight game yesterday, as they fell, 7-6, to the Reds. This evening, they'll turn to Logan Gilbert to stop the slide, and he's in great form. He has a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last three outings. And his strikeout to walk ration was 19:2 in those three games. Gilbert has won his last seven decisions, and the Mariners are 9-2 in his last 11 starts. That bodes well for the Mariners. As does the fact that Gilbert's mound opponent will be rookie RHP Lyon Richardson. In his debut, on August 6 vs. the Nationals, Richardson did something no other MLB player had done in the last 50 years. And that was to give up two home runs on his first two career pitches! Richardson's ERA is 6.75, and his WHIP is 1.75, so I expect Seattle's bats to generate runs today. The Mariners are 11-2 their last 13 behind Gilbert when they've plated more than 3 runs. And they're 31-14 on the road (+19.6 net games) with Gilbert on the hill. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-23 | Brewers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh. The Buccos came back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee, 4-2, on Monday. That was the Brewers' 2nd straight loss, and we'll take the Brew Crew to bounce back this evening. Brandon Woodruff will get the ball for Craig Counsell's men and, dating back to last year, he's 7-1 his last eight decisions (covering 12 starts), and the Brewers are 10-2 in those 12 games. Milwaukee is 35-25 off a loss, including 8-1 off an upset loss to a division foe. Take the Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-23 | Brewers -180 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It may be hard to believe that Corbin Burnes hasn't won a game since July 20. But that doesn't mean that the 2021 NL Cy Young winner hasn't been effective. In the month of August, Burnes had a 3.98 ERA and the Brewers won three of his five starts. He would be the first to admit however that the previous month was much better for him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA during July. But regardless of that, Burnes has an excellent chance to get September going with a bang as his first start of the month will be against the 63-74 Pirates. In 22 regular season games against Pittsburgh (10 starts) covering 75 2/3 innings, Burnes is 7-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And those seven wins represent the most that Burnes has had against any team in the Majors. Perhaps more important is the fact that in 11 career games at PNC Park -- 5 starts -- Burnes is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Brewers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Pirates going back to last August. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-03-23 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Baltimore Orioles. With their win here last night, the Orioles extended their streak of not having been swept in a series since May of 2022 -- a string of 83 consecutive series. It's far from an all-time MLB record, but still very impressive for a team that not that long ago was considered pretty much a doormat of the AL East. Winning this series however will be difficult as the O's hitters have to face one of the NL's best in RHP Zac Gallen. NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll might be getting most of the headlines for Arizona, but it's been the 27-year-old Gallen who's been the anchor of this club all season. In 28 starts covering just over 173 innings, Gallen is 14-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 182 strikeouts. But here's the most impressive stat: In his 13 starts covering just over 85 innings here at Chase Field this season, Gallen is an incredible 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. This will be his first career appearance against the Orioles. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-03-23 | Twins v. Rangers -133 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Minnesota. Last night, the Twins won in extra innings vs. Texas, and will look to complete a 3-game sweep this afternoon. Minnesota will send Kenta Maeda to the mound today, and he's not been pitching well, as he has given up 12 earned runs in his last three starts, covering 13 innings (8.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). For the season, Maeda's ERA is a subpar 4.69, while his mound opponent today (Jon Gray) has a 3.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The Twins are a wallet-busting 29-56 (minus 22.2 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or less), including 21-40 on the road. And Minny is also 1-8 behind Maeda this season in his daytime starts. And Maeda's teams are a dreadful 21-32 (minus 23.9 net games) in his career in the afternoon. Take the Rangers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-23 | Phillies -110 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Milwaukee Brewers. When the Phillies' Ranger Suarez went 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA as a swing-man (part-time starter/part-time reliever) two seasons ago, it appeared that the 25-year-old might be the future of southpaw starting pitching for the team. But a regression last season and again in 2023 cast some doubt on Suarez, and his continued health issues haven't helped his situation. But last season Suarez came on strong in the month of August and he did the same thing last month with a 2.45 ERA in three starts covering 18 1/3 innings. If his injury woes are behind him, Suarez could finish the season strong for the Phillies. He'll get his 18th start of the season this afternoon against the Brewers. And Suarez has a 2.31 career ERA in two starts vs. Milwaukee. The Phillies are also 2-0 in those games, including a seven inning Suarez outing last June right here at American Family Field, in which he allowed two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Take the Phillies. As always good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -188 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -188 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Minnesota Twins. If the Rangers end up not making the post-season -- right now they have just a two-game buffer on the final Wild Card spot -- it will be considered one of the biggest collapses we've seen in a while. As recently as August 8, Texas had the second-best record in the AL with a three-game lead over the Astros and a full 6 1/2 games over the now first-place Mariners. The good news is that with September having just started, the Rangers have a full month to right the ship. They'll try to break their latest losing streak of two games tonight in the second game of this series against the Twins. Jordan Montgomery will get his sixth start since being traded to Texas from St. Louis and the veteran southpaw will have a chance to avenge his last start -- a sub-par effort against this Minnesota club last Sunday. Since coming to Arlington, Montgomery is 2-1 with an excellent 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 30 strikeouts and only five walks in 31 1/3 innings. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-01-23 | Red Sox -172 v. Royals | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -172 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Kansas City Royals. The Red Sox are not necessarily happy to get out of Boston, but they are probably thrilled that they don't have to see the Astros in the visiting dugout anymore this week. Houston came into Fenway and proceeded to dismantle the Sox, taking three games by a combined score of 26-11. But Boston gets a major reward as it travels to Kansas City after an off-day to play the 41-94 Royals -- one of only two teams (Oakland, the other) to have already been eliminated from the post-season. The Sox will open with southpaw James Paxton tonight. The 34-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and has really come back strong this season. In 18 starts, Paxton is 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA with 101 strikeouts in just under 95 innings. Paxton should be looking forward to his second start of the season against KC. On August 10 he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. the Royals in a 2-0 Red Sox victory for his seventh -- and most recent -- win of the season. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-31-23 | Braves -129 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 2 best teams in baseball will kick off a big 4-game series tonight at Chavez Ravine. Spencer Strider will get the start for Atlanta while Lance Lynn will make his 6th start for Los Angeles after being acquired last month from the White Sox. Strider is having a brilliant season for the Braves. He leads all of MLB with 236 strikeouts, and ranks 3rd among starters in batting average against (.204), and 6th in WHIP (1.06). Overall, Strider's W/L record is 15-4, and the Braves have won 21 of his 26 starts. Understandably, Strider's favored on the road tonight. But it's also the least amount he's been favored by all season. Strider's in the best form of his career, as he has a 0.43 ERA and 0.61 WHIP over his last three starts. Atlanta is 168-79 (+34.7 net games) as a favorite, and also 102-51 (+24 net games) their last 153 as a road favorite. Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -267 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. On Monday, the Oakland A's became the first team to be officially eliminated from the MLB post-season when they lost to this Mariners team, 7-0. So what did they do to celebrate their demise on Tuesday? Just a win against that same Seattle club which just happens to be the hottest team in baseball recently. Obviously the M's were hoping for a series sweep against the worst team in the League, but now they are just hoping to win the series with a victory this afternoon so they can keep pace with the Rangers and Astros in what has become the tightest race in the Majors. They'll look to bounce back from last night's 3-1 loss, in which they got only 4 hits. Seattle has won 12 of its last 14, and is 8-1 vs. Oakland this season. Even better, it's a solid 39-26 (+14.7 net games) after getting less than 5 hits, 48-31 (+21.7 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs, and 97-74 (+22.4 net games) in daytime affairs. In contrast, Oakland is an anemic 9-44 (minus 28.6 net games) in the afternoon. Regardless of whether the Mariners hand the ball this afternoon to Bryce Miller or George Kirby (who was under the weather yesterday), we'll take Seattle in an action play. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-29-23 | Brewers v. Cubs -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. If you were to look up the phrase "breakout" in the dictionary, you just might see Justin Steele's picture. The 28-year-old Cubs LH starter had two previous seasons to show what he could do at the Major League level and he responded with numbers that were nothing more than average in both 2021 and 2022. Last season, Steele became a full time starter and although he got 24 turns out of the rotation, all he could put up by the end of the season was a 4-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. In short, there was nothing there that would indicate he might be one of the best starters in the game in 2023. But after 24 starts this season, that's exactly what the Cubs have on their hands as Steele is 14-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and much-improved 4.43 K:BB ratio. One more start will be a career high for Steele, who hopes to still be starting games come playoff time in October. But tonight he'll be called upon to shut down the red hot Brewers who have won nine straight coming in. Chicago's won 11 of his last 12 starts. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-29-23 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. It seems to be all-or-nothing for the Astros right now. In their last three games, the 'Stros have scored 13, 17, and nine runs and not surprisingly they won all three of those games rather easily. But in the three games before that, Houston only managed to score a total of seven runs while losing all three of those contests. We're banking on a return to that type of offensive output tonight as the 'Stros send out RHP J.P. France while the Sox counter with RHP Brayan Bello at Fenway Park. For Bello's part, the 24-year-old has allowed just a single run in three of his last four starts lowering his season ERA to 3.56 in 22 starts covering 126 1/3 innings. France blew up in his last start, but before that, the 28-year-old had been very efficient, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in his six games -- five starts -- between July 20 and August 18. The under is 9-5 in Bello's last 14 starts going back to June 5. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-28-23 | Rangers -144 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the New York Mets. On Sunday, the Mets downed the Anaheim Angels, 3-2, while Texas fell in 13 innings, 7-6, to the Minnesota Twins. Today, New York is a home underdog against the 73-57 Rangers, and we'll go against the Mets, as they're a dreadful 48-99 (minus 39.4 net games) as an underdog, including 11-36 (minus 22.6 net games) this season, and 1-8 as a dog with Tylor Megill on the mound. Interleague play also hasn't been kind to New York, as it's 33-44 (minus 23.6 net games) vs. the American League. Veteran RHP Jon Gray will toe the rubber for Texas, and his teams have gone 18-12 (+7.1 net games) in interleague play. Gray also has a solid 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays -238 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Washington Nationals. With their chances of catching the first place O's fading quickly, the Blue Jays -- 11 games over .500 -- have to start focusing on the Astros and Rangers. Those two teams currently hold down the final two AL Wild Card spots and Toronto needs to take advantage of series against weak opponents like the two coming up this week against the Nationals and Rockies. Veteran RHP Kevin Gausman will start tonight for Toronto in the first game of this series against Washington at home. The Nats are a team which Gausman is familiar with from his time in the NL, particularly with the Braves. He's lost his last two starts but those were against his nemesis Baltimore, and before that, Philadelphia. Tonight, he'll face off against a Nationals' lineup, which is a significant downgrade from those two clubs. In 25 starts covering just over 150 innings, Gausman is 9-8 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and he leads all MLB players with 195 strikeouts. Barring something unusual, Gausman will log over 200 K's for the third straight season. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-24-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Jays will hand the ball to veteran Jose Berrios this season. This will be his 14th career start vs. Baltimore, and all he's done is go 10-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. And his teams have gone 12-0 in his 12 starts vs. Baltimore since 2017, including a 3-1 win here at Camden Yards in June. Berrios was brilliant in that victory, as he held the Birds' offense to 0 runs over 7 2/3 innings. Toronto is a solid 43-30 (+11.8 net games) on the road vs. winning teams. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-23 | Red Sox v. Astros -123 | Top | 17-1 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. J.P. France may not have the star power or name recognition of some other AL Freshmen like Gunnar Henderson or Josh Jung, but he should definitely be in the conversation when it comes to handing out the hardware for Rookie of the Year. Heading into the season, it was thought that another Houston rookie starter, Hunter Brown, would be the one getting all the attention at this point, but instead it's been the RH France who, at the ripe age of 28, has been turning heads on this team in his first MLB season. In 18 games -- 17 starts -- covering 108 innings, France has logged a 9-4 record with a 2.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He'll get a chance to improve on those numbers and reach double-digit wins this afternoon with his first career start vs. the Red Sox. Even more impressive than his overall numbers is the fact that in his last nine games -- eight starts -- going back to June 29, France is 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA and the Astros are 8-1 in those games. Finally, the 'Stros are 76-38 off a loss. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-23-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. Orioles | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. We played on the Blue Jays as an underdog last night, and were rewarded with a 6-3 victory. Tonight, the Jays are a road favorite, and we'll come right back with them. Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for Toronto, and his teams have gone 16-4 on the road vs. division rivals, and 17-6 on the road vs. winning foes with him on the mound. Gausman will match-up against Dean Kremer for the Orioles. Toronto is a solid 127-102 (+11.35 net games) on the road, and 33-23 (+9.15 net games) when its odds are priced between +125 and -125. Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-23 | Blue Jays +105 v. Orioles | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays will seek to gain ground on the division-leading Orioles, and also make up ground in the Wild Card race in this 3-game series. Toronto has been installed as an underdog, and it's excelled as a dog this season, going 20-14 (+8.8 net games), including 6-3 when starter Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound. And in Kikuchi's career, when he's been installed as a road underdog, he's been a profitable 22-25 (+6.5 net games). Grayson Rodriguez will get the ball for Baltimore tonight, and he faced off against Kikuchi 20 days ago. The Orioles' rookie surrendered 3 runs over 5 2/3 innings in that game, and was outdueled by Kikuchi (6 IP, 1 ER) in a 4-1 Blue Jays win. I expect more of the same tonight. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-23 | Rangers -148 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers were swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and look to bounce back against a red-hot Diamondbacks team, which has won seven of nine. Newly-acquired Jordan Montgomery threw his 4th straight quality start last week vs. the Angels, in a 7-3 Rangers victory. And he's given up just 23 earned runs in his last 14 starts (11 with St. Louis), for a 2.47 ERA. Tonight, he's been installed as a road favorite vs. the D-Backs. The Diamondbacks are a soft 20-49 (minus 19.7 net games) as a home dog priced from +125 to +175, and 6-19 their last 25 vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, Texas is 15-7 this season off back-to-back losses, and 18-11 after scoring less than 3 runs. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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08-20-23 | Mariners v. Astros -168 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. On Saturday, the Mariners went off and plated double-digit runs in a 10-3 rout of the Astros in Houston thanks to the hottest hitter in the game right now. M's OF Julio Rodriguez broke an MLB record that stood for almost 100 years when he got his 17th hit in his last four games. If the 'Stros can just find a way to slow down the 22-year-old Seattle superstar, they should be able to win this series finale against the Mariners. That chore will fall on the broad shoulders of young Houston RH Hunter Brown. The 24-year-old won his last appearance, but it wasn't as a starter. On August 15, Brown pitched two scoreless innings to secure the victory over the Marlins in South Florida in what was his only appearance thus far out of the bullpen. He'll come back this afternoon to get his 23rd start of the season -- his 10th at home. In seven daytime starts this season, Brown has a 3.32 ERA (vs. 4.57 in 16 games -- 15 starts -- under the lights). Houston's also 75-37 (+27.1 net games) off a loss. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-19-23 | Giants +110 v. Braves | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Atlanta Braves. You'd be hard-pressed to name a more underrated starter in the Majors this season than the Giants' Logan Webb. At first glance, the 26-year-old RH's 9-9 record does not seem all that impressive. But dig a little deeper and you'll see a 3.26 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a league leading workload of 163 innings combined with another league-best 6.04 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Webb has been a model of consistency for a Giants team that hasn't always been consistent this season. He'll get his 26th start of the season tonight against the best team in the Majors but that shouldn't bother Webb at all. In four career starts vs. the Braves covering 27 innings, Webb is 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with 29 strikeouts and three walks. Three of those starts were here at Truist Park where Webb has a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 20 innings. Despite his .500 record on the season, the Giants are 9-4 in Webb's last 13 trips to the mound going back to June 7. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-23 | Mariners v. Astros -149 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Seattle. The Astros fell here, at home, last night to Seattle. But Houston is a solid 75-36 (+28.6 net games) off a loss. And Framber Valdez is 3-0 in his career vs. the Mariners with a 2.48 ERA. Take Houston. |
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08-19-23 | Blue Jays -143 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cincinnati Reds. The Blue Jays were shut out, 1-0, last night, so I look for them to bounce back today. Toronto is an awesome 38-19 after scoring less than 2 runs. And Chris Bassitt's teams have gone 15-0 as a road favorite priced at -125 (or higher). Take Toronto. |
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08-19-23 | Royals v. Cubs -183 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Kansas City Royals. What kind of future odds could you have gotten on the Cubs' Justin Steele leading the Majors in wins this season? Most people hadn't even heard of the 27-year-old LHP back in March, much less predicted he would be one of the best pitchers in the league this season. And of the four starters tied with 13 victories as of this writing (Zac Gallen, Spencer Strider, and Taijuan Walker are the other three) Steele has the lowest ERA at 2.79. He'll get his 23rd start of the season this afternoon and it will come at home against one of the worst teams in baseball. Not only is Steele tied for the most wins in the Majors, but at 13-3, he has the top win percentage as well at .813. Steele has done by far his best work at home this season as in 16 starts here at Wrigley he is 9-2 with a 2.56 ERA (vs. 4-1 and 3.38 in six starts on the road). In eight inter-league starts in 2023, Steele is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-18-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds were getting people in Cincinnati excited about baseball again back in June when super prospect Elly De La Cruz came up and the team started putting strings of victories together (at one point winning 12 straight). But things have cooled off considerably and Cincy comes into this weekend series with the Jays having lost 10 of its last 14 games while falling behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Toronto comes into Cincinnati for the first time in almost 10 years hungry for its own winning streak as it vies for an AL Wild Card spot. The Jays will send veteran RH Jose Berrios to the mound for his 25th start of the season. The 29-year-old is 9-8 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in just over 140 innings. The Jays have taken five of the last six meetings with the Reds going back to May of 2017, and are 24-13 in interleague games this season (and 51-26 the last 3 years). Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-23 | Brewers +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers are trying to create some separation between themselves and the Reds and Cubs in the NL Central as it's quite possible that only the division winner will advance from that group. But it's difficult when you're playing the Dodgers and Rangers -- Milwaukee's two opponents this week. The Brewers send their best starter, RH Corbin Burnes, out to the mound tonight and Burnes will be looking to bounce back from a sub-par performance last Friday in Chicago against the White Sox. Although the Brew Crew came back to win that game, it was an ugly outing from their ace (5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H). Prior to that poor start, though, Burnes had gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA with 52 strikeouts and only 17 hits allowed in his previous seven starts covering 45 innings. In 13 starts on the road this season, Burnes is 5-3 with a 3.35 ERA (vs. 4-3 and 3.92 in 11 starts at home). The Brewers are also 7-2 in Burnes' last nine starts going back to June 25. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-16-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -219 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. Last Thursday, Clayton Kershaw saw his first game action since June 27, and it was vintage Kershaw -- albeit a bit shorter than what we're used to seeing when he's 100%. In that start -- his 17th of the season -- Kershaw allowed one run on three hits in five innings with four strikeouts and no walks in a 2-1 Dodgers victory over the Rockies. You can bet that the Dodgers will be cautious with their future Hall-of-Fame southpaw the rest of the regular season and they want Kershaw to be as close to his old self as possible come post-season. His next start will come tonight back at home against a better team than the one he faced last time. The Brewers are in first place in the NL Central, as they lead the Cubs and Reds by 3.5 games. In 17 career starts against the Brewers covering 106 innings, Kershaw is 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. L.A. is 4-2 in the last six meetings with the Brew Crew. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-16-23 | Orioles v. Padres -163 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Baltimore Orioles. Since May 25, Blake Snell has been the best pitcher in baseball, as he's gone 8-2, and has allowed just 11 earned runs in 85 innings (1.16 ERA). Over that same time period, Dean Kremer has allowed 39 runs in 79 1/3 innings (4.42 ERA). In his career, Blake Snell's teams are 20-8 (+5.8 net games) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-23 | Astros v. Marlins +107 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Houston Astros. Justin Verlander came back to Houston at the trade deadline and so far in the couple of starts he's had back in an Astros uniform, the veteran RH has been solid but not over-powering. Clearly Verlander isn't the same pitcher he was last season when he won his third Cy Young award after going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. And he has a tough match-up tonight against the Marlins and their ace LH Jesus Luzardo. The 25-year-old from Peru is enjoying his second full season in South Florida, going 8-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 24 starts covering just under 134 innings. But Luzardo is coming off of his worst start of the season right here at home against the Yankees last Friday. In that one he allowed seven runs on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings. The good news is that Luzardo is a strong candidate to bounce back tonight against an Astros team that he's intimately familiar with from his time in the AL West with the A's. The Marlins are 10-4 in Luzardo's last 14 starts here at LoanDepot Park. Take Miami. |
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08-15-23 | Mariners -142 v. Royals | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Kansas City Royals. In the first game of this series in Kansas City last night, the Mariners played yet another see-saw affair which has been the case more often than not lately. After scoring six runs in the last two innings to take the lead from the Royals, Seattle's bullpen was at it again, giving up a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th allowing the Royals to escape with a 7-6 victory. The M's called upon former #1 draft pick Emerson Hancock for his MLB debut six days ago and the 24-year-old RH did not disappoint, throwing five innings while allowing just one run on two hits in a 6-1 Seattle win over the Padres. The former University of Georgia standout will get his second start for the M's tonight in another critical situation. And it's undoubtedly a better situation than his first start as he gets to face the 39-81 Royals who will go with veteran Jordan Lyles who is just 3-13 on the season (and the Royals have lost 16 of his 19 starts). Over his last four starts, Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings for an ERA of 6.46. Seattle is a solid 22-8 when priced on the road from -125 to -175. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-14-23 | Orioles v. Padres -150 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles just keep on amazing everyone and their wild series in Seattle prior to coming here was yet another example of how good they are -- even if they play on the edge most of the time. They took two out of three from the Mariners but it wasn't easy and now they'll have their hands full facing a trio of starters that's about as good as it gets in today's league (Darvish, Wacha, and Snell). They begin with the 36-year-old Japanese star RH. Darvish hasn't had the dominating season we're used to seeing from him, but he still has a crazy mix of pitches and is capable of going deep into games against the best lineups. In 21 starts covering just over 120 innings, Darvish is 8-7 with a 4.19 ERA with 125 strikeouts. Darvish has been great in these interleague situations in his career as he is 17-8 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 37 starts covering 231 1/3 innings vs. teams from the opposite league. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-14-23 | Yankees v. Braves -216 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Yankees. The Braves just took 3 of 4 from the Mets and outscored them, 40-10. Tonight, they'll take on the Big Apple's other franchise, the Yankees. The Pinstripes have floundered this season, with a 60-58 record. And they've now lost six straight road series to St. Louis, Colorado, Anaheim, Baltimore, the White Sox, and Miami. In those six series, the Yankees went 5-13. Max Fried gets the ball for Atlanta, and the Braves have gone an awesome 86-39 (33.6 net games) in his starts, including 43-18 (+12.3 net games) in his 61 home starts. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-23 | Astros -135 v. Marlins | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Miami Marlins. In his first start back after he threw a no-hitter at home on August 1, LHP Framber Valdez didn't have his best stuff in Baltimore. Fortunately, it didn't matter in the W/L column as the Astros got a dramatic 9th inning grand slam from Kyle Tucker and beat the Orioles 7-6 on August 8. With all that drama behind him, the 29-year-old southpaw will hopefully be able to settle down tonight in South Florida and pitch like he has been most of 2023. It will be just his second career start vs. the Marlins and his first one was solid -- a six-inning outing last June 11 when he allowed two runs on four hits in a 5-1 Miami victory. Valdez enjoys these situations as in 21 interleague starts covering just under 123 innings he is 9-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 122 strikeouts. He is also 5-2 on the road this season vs. just 4-5 at home and the 'Stros are 26-13 in his last 39 starts away from Houston. The Astros are also 11-4 in Valdez's last 15 starts going back to May 9. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. Giants' RHP Logan Webb's MLB workload has increased in each of the four seasons he's been in the league. And by the looks of things, it's going to increase again this season. In fact, Webb's 154 1/3 innings of work coming into this afternoon -- his 25th start of the season -- leads all MLB starters and he'll likely go over 200 for the first time in his career (he had a career-high 192 1/3 in 2022). He'll be facing a very good Texas Rangers team but it's one that he's had some success against in the past. In two career starts vs. the Rangers covering 9 2/3 innings, Webb is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA with 14 strikeouts. He also loves pitching here at home as in 51 appearances at Oracle Park (48 starts), Webb is 22-14 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Compare that to his road numbers -- 18-14 with a 4.10 ERA in 53 starts -- and you can see why the Giants want to try to give him as many home starts as possible down the stretch. Nothwithstanding yesterday's defeat, the Giants have won seven of the last 11 meetings with Texas. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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08-12-23 | Rangers v. Giants -120 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. With things seemingly spiraling out of control for both the Diamondbacks and Padres, the door has never been as wide open for the Giants this season as it appears right now. Both of those aforementioned NL West teams have losing records while the Giants are eight games over .500 and poised to become the #2 Wild Card team in the NL if things ended right now. The Giants will send RHP Alex Cobb to the mound for his 22nd start of the season. The 35-year-old is having one of this best campaigns since his 2017 season when he won 12 games and earlier this summer he made the All Star team for the first time. Cobb's start tonight will come against one of the best teams in MLB this season in the Texas Rangers. Cobb excels in inter-league situations as in 33 career starts covering 204 innings vs. teams from the opposite league, Cobb is 13-9 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Giants are 11-1 in Cobb's last 12 starts under the lights, and 7-0 in his last seven home outings. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-12-23 | Yankees v. Marlins -125 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the New York Yankees. The tough luck pitcher of all of MLB in the second half has to be Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. Now granted, earlier in the season, Alcantara was mostly just pitching poorly, but that hasn't been the case since the second week of July. In his last six starts, Alcantara has a 2.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts and five walks in just under 42 innings. Yet he has just a 1-3 record to show for it and the Marlins are 1-5 in those. The good news is there's a lot of ball left to be played so hopefully for Miami, Alcantara doesn't let the frustration get to him as the team will definitely need him down the stretch as it battles for a Wild Card spot. Start number 24 for the 27-year-old RH will come this afternoon at home against the Yankees. Although his record doesn't show it, Alcantara has done his best work here this season with a 3.95 ERA in south Florida vs. 4.56 elsewhere. Despite a disappointing season so far, the skill set is still there as Alcantara has two complete games to his credit in 2023 (one of them being a shutout). Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-11-23 | Angels v. Astros -183 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Anaheim Angels. Justin Verlander is no doubt happy to be back with the Houston Astros, with which he won two World Series rings (2017, 2022), and two Cy Young Awards (2019, 2022). And he also will be happy to face the Angels tonight, given that he's compiled a 2.36 ERA over his last 13 starts vs. Anaheim, with the Astros winning 10 of those 13 games. Verlander will match up against the Angels' Reid Detmers, who has a career ERA of 4.88 in six starts vs. Houston. Even worse for Anaheim: the Astros are 63-26 (+21.2 net games) vs. southpaws. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-11-23 | Braves -166 v. Mets | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. The Braves lost to the Buccos yesterday, 7-5. And that was Atlanta's 4th defeat in its last six games. We'll take Atlanta to bounce back this evening, as it's an awesome 84-37 (+22.3 net games) as a road favorite priced at -125 or higher. Meanwhile, the Mets are a miserable 8-29 (minus 20.2 net games) as an underdog this season. Take Atlanta. |
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08-11-23 | Guardians v. Rays -187 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians. The starting pitchers who changed clubs over the trade deadline have had their first -- and in some cases, second -- starts with their new team...with varying results. One of the ones who struggled first time up was the Rays' newest arm, RH Aaron Civale. The 28-year-old went into Detroit on August 5 and laid a bit of an egg, giving up three runs on nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings. The pressure is on Civale more now than it was even five days ago with the recent news that Tampa's ace, Shane McClanahan is "highly unlikely" to pitch again the rest of the season due to forearm tightness. So Civale's second start -- his first in front of his new home fans -- becomes very important as the Rays try to catch the Orioles in the East. And it comes against no less than his former club, the Guardians, so he should know the lineup very well. In Cleveland this season, Civale was an ace, going 5-2 with a sparkling 2.34 ERA in 13 starts covering 77 innings, and he pitched better on the road than at home. Take Tampa. |
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08-10-23 | Twins -150 v. Tigers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. Last night, the Tigers won 9-5, and out-hit the Twins 17-7, behind two Spencer Torkelson home runs. And that was Minny's 2nd straight defeat. I like the Twins to bounce back on Thursday. Kenta Maeda will get his 13th start of the season. Overall, his ERA is 4.22, while his WHIP is 1.15. But one of his 12 starts was a disastrous game on April 26, in which he allowed 10 runs and 11 hits in 3 innings vs. the Yankees. Outside of that one outlier, his ERA for his other 11 starts is 2.85, and his WHIP is 0.98. For his last 3 starts, Maeda's ERA is 2.08, with a 0.92 WHIP, while his mound opponent, Reese Olson, has a 7.31 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over his last 3 outings. And the Tigers have dropped each of his last 4 starts. Minnesota is 10-1 after getting out-hit in their previous game by at least 10, and 49-39 (+11.4 net games) after losing by more than 3 runs, while Detroit is 3-12 after winning by more than 3 runs. |
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08-09-23 | Blue Jays -140 v. Guardians | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Guardians. The much-ballyhooed Toronto offense laid another egg on Tuesday night, getting shut out by the Guardians in the second game of this series. The lack of run-scoring has occurred more than a few times this season as the Jays have been trying just about everything to get Vlad Guerrero, George Springer and the rest of the line-up producing like it's capable of. The good news is that despite their offensive struggles at times, the Jays are still right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. They'll send their ace, RH Kevin Gausman to the mound for his 23rd start of the season in the third of this four-game set in Cleveland. Unlike some of the hitters on the team, Gausman has been producing steadily and consistently for his club most of the season. In 22 starts covering 132 innings, Gausman is 8-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a career-best 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. In three career games at Progressive Field (two starts) Gausman is 2-1 with a 2.40 ERA. And Toronto is also 37-18 (+14.9 net games) following a game where it scored less than 2 runs. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-09-23 | Twins -150 v. Tigers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. With the total demise of the Guardians and White Sox, it seems a foregone conclusion now that the Twins will win the AL Central. But no matter how much those other teams have dismantled themselves and how poorly they have played, the Twins just can't find consistency with their offense. Their pitching -- for the most part -- has been a different story. In fact, with a 3.83 ERA, the Twins have the sixth-best pitching staff in the Majors. And one of the main reasons is the performance of RH Bailey Ober. The 27-year-old is in his third MLB season and he's 6-5 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 starts covering just under 104 innings. Start number 19 will come this evening and it will be his second of the season against Detroit (he threw six quality innings vs. the Tigers back in June, taking a no-decision in a 6-3 Minnesota win). Four of Ober's six 2023 wins have come on the road and the Twins have won four of his last six starts going back to that June 25 no-decision here in Detroit). Take Minny. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, in GAME 2 of the double-header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. Ranger Suarez will toe the rubber for Philly tonight, and the Phillies are 23-12 (+12.9 net games) in his last 35 nighttime starts, and 5-1 in his six career starts vs. the Nats. That bodes well for the home team here. As does the fact that Washington is a wallet-breaking 27-78 (minus 28.3 net games) vs. division rivals. Josiah Gray has made 7 career starts vs. the Phillies, and his ERA is an elevated 4.95. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-23 | Marlins -133 v. Reds | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Cincinnati Reds. Like the Angels over in the AL, it's been a rough go for the Marlins since the trade deadline. With the loss here last night, Miami has now dropped five in a row since its last win on August 2. But despite this latest setback, it is no time to panic in South Florida as the Marlins remain in the thick of the NL Wild Card chase thanks to mediocre play by the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They'll send out 25-year-old LH Braxton Garrett for his 22nd start of the season tonight. The young southpaw has had a very good season, going 5-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 122 strikeouts and only 19 walks in 111 innings. And apparently Garrett prefers to get his starts on the road as in 12 games (11 starts) in Miami, he is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA. However, in 10 road starts Garrett has logged a 3-1 record with a 2.65 number. This same matchup -- Miami with Garrett and Cincy with Luke Weaver -- faced off on May 14 in South Florida and Garrett and the Fish prevailed 3-1. Miami is also 11-1 behind Garrett when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Marlins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-07-23 | Marlins -128 v. Reds | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Cincinnati Reds. Not that long ago, the Reds were the darlings of the National League, holding down first place in the NL Central by two games and sitting 10 games over .500. But a late July swoon, a crazy onslaught by the Cubs, and most recently a sweep at the hands of the Nationals in DC have landed Cincy in third place heading into this week. They come home for a three-game set against the Marlins who will be happy to get out of Arlington, Texas after getting swept by the Rangers. They should get a boost from the return of phenom starter Eury Perez who will go to the mound for his 12th start of the season tonight. Perez had roughly a month to reset himself and monitor his workload in the Minors and will make his first start with the big league club since July 6. The 20-year-old RHP opened his MLB career against the Reds on May 12 and will face them for the second time tonight. The Marlins are 33-19 in their last 52 as a favorite of -110 or higher. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres -114 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Unlike some other "bubble" teams who decided to stand pat at the trade deadline, the Padres looked to improve both their offense and pitching with the acquisitions of Rich Hill, Ji-Man Choi, Garrett Cooper and Scott Barlow. None of them are big name impact players, proof that A.J. Preller and the rest of the San Diego brass feel like they already have the pieces in place to make a playoff run. That certainly didn't look to be the case in front of a national TV audience on Sunday night, so now the Pads will try again this afternoon in the last game of this four-game set at home. Converted reliever Seth Lugo will go to the hill for the 17th time this season (all of them starts). The 33-year-old RHP is 4-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 89 innings so by almost any measure you have to say that his conversion to the rotation has been a success. Lifetime vs. the Dodgers, Lugo is 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 appearances -- one start -- covering 16 2/3 innings. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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