At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide to go UNDER the total.  The storyline for this game is undoubtedly whether Georgia can avenge its loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  So, it's worth noting that, in the Kirby Smart-Era, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU/ATS when installed as a favorite, and playing with revenge.  In their seven wins, they've held their opponents to 8.28 points per game, even though their opponents averaged north of 29 points per game, on offense.  Of course, the one loss was last month to this Alabama team, when the Crimson Tide scored 41 points against the Bulldogs' defense.  I believe that game was more of an anomaly than anything else.  After all, this is a Georgia team which had given up just 6.9 ppg in its first 12 games this season.  And, importantly, it showed just how dominant it can be when it held an excellent Michigan team -- the 3rd best football team in the country this season -- to a meager 84 rushing yards (139.8 yards below its season average) and 11 points (26.6 points below its season average).  Georgia has gone UNDER the total in nine of its last 13 post-season games.  And NCAA Football teams that gave up 14 or less points per game (thru their first 10 games) have gone UNDER 70.9% since 2014 if the O/U line was 52+ points.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game on Monday night.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on LSU and Kansas State OVER the total.  The Tigers will play this Bowl game with two freshman options at quarterback, neither of whom has played.  And both were walk-ons!  So, interim had coach Brad Davis will have his choice between Tavion Faulk and Matt O'Dowd.  The result of this huge question mark at signal caller is that this Over/Under line is the 2nd lowest of LSU's 13 games this season.  And it represents the 2nd lowest Over/Under line for Kansas State, as well.  By my math, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number downward by too much, and there's significant value on the OVER.  Additionally, there are two other factors that I believe will contribute to a higher-scoring game.  First, Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson is healthy, and at full strength.  And he's been throwing and running the ball extremely well in practice leading up to this game, so that bodes well for the Wildcats' offense tonight.  And the 2nd factor is that Kansas State will have a new offensive coordinator for this game.  Quarterbacks coach Collin Klein (who also was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2012) will call the offensive plays following the dismissal of Courtney Messingham last month.  I expect Klein to put his stamp on the offense, and possibly go up-tempo.  Indeed, several of Kansas State's beat writers have commented on Messingham's failure to ever play at a fast pace, or even call trick plays -- with the implication that Klein will be much different than Messingham.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears and Mississippi Rebels 'OVER' the total.  These two teams have both played a string of unders coming into this Sugar Bowl.  Baylor has gone 'under' in four straight games, while Ole Miss has gone 'under' in seven straight.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest number for an Ole Miss game this season.  The average line on Ole Miss totals this season has been 70.62.  With Baylor's games, it's been 56.25, for a blended average of 63.43.  So, this line has been significantly adjusted for the two teams' string of unders.  Indeed, at the start of Ole Miss' 7-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Tennessee was 82.5 points!  At the start of Baylor's 4-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Oklahoma was 63.5 points.  The 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 62.6%, which plays on certain games -- with over/under lines greater than 55 -- to go 'over' the total, as well as a 2nd angle which has won 58.4%.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Utah.  The Buckeyes were upset, 42-27, as a 6.5-point road favorite by a Michigan team on a mission to end its long, 8-game losing streak to its rival.  But off that upset loss, we'll step in and take Ohio State in this Rose Bowl matchup vs. Utah.  Ohio State is a solid 12-4 ATS away from home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in its previous game.  And it's 42-19-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 10 points, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .600 and less than .800.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have reeled off seven straight wins to end their season, but I'm not impressed, given the slate of teams they defeated.  Of the seven teams, only Virginia Tech and North Carolina made a bowl game.  And both were slaughtered this past week, as North Carolina lost by 17 as a 12-point favorite vs. South Carolina (failing to cover by 29), while Virginia Tech was shredded by Maryland, 54-10 (and failed to cover by 39.5 points).  Those were two of the three worst Bowl performances relative to the spread this season (Mississippi State was the 2nd worst, at -36.5 points).  In contrast, Oklahoma State came within inches of finishing the season with its own 6-game win streak.  But Baylor's defense stopped Oklahoma State just short of the goal line in the Big 12 Championship game to preserve the win for the Bears.  But if you look at Oklahoma State's opponents down the stretch, you'll see teams like Baylor, Okahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  The Bears have yet to play their Bowl game, but Oklahoma and Texas Tech were both dominant, as they covered the spread by 8 and 36.5 points, respectively.  By my numbers Oklahoma State rates as the better team, yet it's been installed as a small underdog.  For technical support, consider that Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 ATS its last 12 off an upset loss, if playing an opponent off a win, if Oklahoma State wasn't favored by 4+ points in the current game.  And the Cowboys also fall into several of my favorite NCAA Bowl systems, with records of 136-69, 39-10, 16-4, and 59-22 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats UNDER the total.  The Wildcats come into this game off back to back high-scoring wins, as they tallied 52 vs. Louisville, and 56 against New Mexico State.  The Over/Under line has been installed well below those offensive totals, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over.  But consider that NCAA games have gone 'UNDER' 73% since 2013 if a team topped 50 points in each of its two previous games, and the line was 52 or less.  That bodes well for the UNDER on this Saturday afternoon.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into two of my best totals systems, with records of 58-33 and 114-66.  Take Kentucky + Iowa 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have had a tremendous turnaround season, but this will be a most difficult opponent for them to defeat.  Going into the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs were 12-0, and had given up just 6.9 ppg on defense.  Yes, Alabama scored 41 in an upset win, but it was an unusual game for Georgia since it knew it would be in these playoffs, even if it loss (while Alabama knew it had to win to advance).  This evening, Georgia will be fully motivated, and I expect it to shut down Michigan, just as it shut down all of its opponents in the regular season.  Georgia is a spectacular 39-15 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Michigan is 5-35 straight-up, and 14-26 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And the SEC Conference has gone 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS in the Bowls vs. the Big 10 Conference when the SEC team owned the better defense, and was not the underdog.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide has been installed as a huge double-digit favorite in this game.  I generally don't like to lay points in bowl games, and especially not when the favored team doesn't own the better defense or the better ground attack.  The Bearcats have given up just 16.1 ppg on the season (against foes that average 26 ppg), and fall into a 73.0% ATS defensive underdog system of mine, as well as a 67.5% ATS system which plays on certain bowl teams with better rushing statistics.  The Bearcats are 14-2 ATS their last 16 when not laying 11+ points, including 5-0 ATS their last five as an underdog.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Central Michigan.  The number on this game has come down signficiantly from where it was earlier this morning, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on Jake Dickert's Cougars.  Washington State ended its season on a 6-2 SU run, and the only game it failed to cover was by a half-point (38-24 loss to Oregon, as a 13.5-point underdog).  Today, Wazzu is favored in the Sun Bowl vs. the Mid-American Conference's Chippewas, who won their final four games of the season.  The Cougars are a solid 21-9 ATS when the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 7 or less, while the Chippewas are a wallet-breaking 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes when the line was 7 or less.  That bodes well for Washington State.  As does the fact that the Pac-12 has gone 18-9 in Bowl games when priced from -4 to -6 points, while the Mid American Conference has burned money as an underdog in that price range, with a 3-8 ATS record.  Finally, the Cougars were much better this season away from home than Central Michigan.  Washington State was 4-1 ATS in its road games, and covered by an average of 16.0 ppg, while the Chips were 3-3 ATS and only covered by 3.0 ppg.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season, while Rutgers was 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.  The Scarlet Knights didn't qualify for a bowl game, given their losing record, but were tabbed by the Gator Bowl officials to replace Texas A&M, which pulled out due to COVID-19.  It's true that Rutgers comes into this game off back to back blowout losses to Penn State (28-0) and Maryland (40-16).  But we'll grab the points with the Scarlet Knights, as double-digit underdogs have gone 17-3 ATS in the post-season off a loss by 24+ points.  Even better:  Rutgers is 67-42 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Wake Forest is 4-18-1 ATS as a favorite of -5+ points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State/Wisconsin game to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams have solid defenses, and give up less than 21 points per game.  And Arizona State has now gone 'under' the total in six straight non-conference games (and has gone 'under' by an average of 14.25 ppg.  Wisconsin also has gone 'under' in 5 of 6 non-conference games vs. foes that give up less than 21 points per game.  And the Badgers are 8-1 'under' after being upset in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over North Carolina.  Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were saddled with an exceptionally difficult schedule this season, and went 6-6.  Four of their six losses were against #3 Georgia, #19 Clemson, #23 Texas A&M, and #25 Kentucky.  And they also fell to SEC Conference foes Tennessee and Missouri, both of which made a Bowl game.  North Carolina, meanwhile, also played four teams ranked among the Top 25, and lost to three of the four:  #5 Notre Dame, #13 Pittsburgh, and #18 NC State.  The Tar Heels' lone win against a Top 25 team was a 58-55 victory vs. Wake Forest.  But the common thread among North Carolina's games vs. top-level teams was that it gave up a ton of points.  UNC surrendered 44 to Notre Dame, 55 to Wake Forest, 30 to Pittsburgh and 34 to NC State.  For the season, North Carolina went just 5-7 ATS, and gave up 31.5 ppg, yet it's favored by double-digits vs. South Carolina.  I'm generally not a fan of laying a lot of points in Bowl games, and even less so if a team has a swiss cheese defense, and has not shown a propensity to cover the number.  Indeed, NCAA Bowl teams have gone a woeful 0-10 ATS if they were favored by 7+ points, did not own a winning ATS record, and gave up 30+ points per game.  Grab the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, on Tuesday, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over Air Force.  The Falcons are 9-3, yet have been installed as an underdog vs. the 6-6 Cardinals, who were blown out by 31 points in their previous game by Kentucky (and failed to cover the spread by 34 points).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Air Force, but consider that, at Game 10 forward, underdogs that own a W/L percentage of at least .250 greater than their opponent have covered just 28.1% when not playing at home.  Even worse:  winning teams off back to back wins (like Air Force), and not getting more than 3 points, have covered just 37% in the post-season vs. foes off a loss, that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 14+ points.  Louisville also falls into 154-97, 38-9 and 135-67 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, in the Camellia Bowl, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Georgia State.  Ball State punched its ticket for the post-season when it defeated Buffalo, 20-3, as a 6-point favorite, to end its season, and reach the .500 mark.  The Panthers were 7-5, and finished second in the Sun Belt's East division, and are in a Bowl game for the third straight year.  We'll fade Georgia State here, as Sun Belt teams are a woeful 1-14-1 ATS in the post-season when favored against foes off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Ball State has been terrific as an underdog off less than 20 points away from Muncie, IN, as it's 9-1 ATS.  And the Cardinals also fall into a 42-17 ATS statistical system of mine, as well as a 156-97-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain bowl underdogs of more than 3 points. 

At 3:30 pm, on Thursday afternoon, in the Frisco Football Classic, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green stunned the then-undefeated Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners, 45-23, as an 8.5-point home underdog in their final regular season game.  But off that upset win over the 11-0 Roadrunners, we'll fade North Texas in this Bowl game.  Indeed, at Game 9 forward, teams off wins over undefeated teams have covered just 1 of their last 14.  That bodes well for Miami-Ohio in this game.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs playing away from home, priced from +2 to +10.5 in the post-season, have covered just 20 of 65 games.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs over Texas San Antonio.  Both of these teams had spectacular seasons.  And they were similar in that each of them overachieved.  Texas San Antonio opened the season with an upset win as a 4.5-point underdog over Illinois.  That was our first big play of the College season, and the Roadrunners went on to win their first 11 games (8-3 ATS) before finally losing at North Texas in Game #12.  They then won their Conference USA Championship game against Western Kentucky, and we played on them in that victory, as well.  Likewise, San Diego State won 11 of its first 12 games (6-5-1 ATS) before losing the Mountain West Championship game to Utah State.  It's hard for me to pass up the Aztecs in this underdog role, given that it has given up just 14.2 ppg in its five road games this season.  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has surrendered 31.3 ppg in its six road games.  And the Roadrunners' record-setting RB, Sincere McCormick (1663 total yards), will skip the game, so he won't get injured in advance of April's NFL draft.  McCormick is San Antone's career leader in rushing yards (3,929), touchdowns (34) and all-purpose yards (4,438), and was just named Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, in addition to several 2nd-team and 3rd-team All-American honors.  Mountain West Conference teams have gone 37-24 ATS as underdogs in the post-season, including 7-2 ATS when they owned a defense that gave up less than 19.5 ppg.  Finally, San Diego St. is 7-1 ATS its last eight as an underdog (and 24-12 ATS its last 36) off a double-digit conference defeat.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  The Herd were blown out, 53-21, by Western Kentucky at the end of their regular season.  But off that blowout loss, we'll step in and grab the points with Marshall on Saturday, as it's generally bounced back off poor games.  For example, the Thundering Herd are 10-0-2 ATS off a loss by more than 25 points, if they weren't laying 3+ points in their current game.  Even better:  Marshall's 12-3 ATS in the Bowl games, while the Rajin' Cajuns are 0-4 ATS in the Bowls since 2016.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Fresno State.  Unless one is betting on a top-level team, it's generally not a good idea to lay a lot of points in Bowl games.  And Fresno State -- with its 9-3 record, and scoring margin less than 14 ppg -- certainly is not a top-level team.  The Bulldogs have been terrific as an underdog in the post-season (10-3 ATS), but horrid as a favorite/Pk in the Bowls, as it's 1-7 ATS!  Meanwhile, UTEP is 5-0 ATS its last 5, and 13-6 ATS its last 19 games as a rested underdog of +6 (or more) points.  Take the double-digits with Texas El Paso.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Toledo.  In this battle between the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA, we're going to take the points with Middle Tennessee St.  The Mid-American Conference teams have not fared well when laying points over the years, including 3-6 ATS over their last nine as a favorite of more than four in the Bowls.  Meanwhile, Conference USA teams have been strong as double-digit Bowl underdogs, as they've gone 12-7 ATS.  The Blue Raiders come into this game off an impressive upset win at Florida Atlantic, 27-17.  And that road victory enabled the Blue Raiders to qualify for a Bowl game.  Middle Tennessee is now 8-0 ATS its last eight when priced from +4 to +11 points.  Even better:  .500 (or better) double-digit underdogs, off a double-digit upset win, have cashed 61% of non-conference games over the last 42 years, including 75% of Bowl games.  Grab the points with Middle Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan.  Last week, we played on the Wolverines as a huge home underdog against Ohio State.  And the Wolves routed the Buckeyes, 42-27, to snap an 8-game losing streak to their rival.  But off that emotional, upset win, we will fade Jim Harbaugh's men on Saturday.  Indeed, Michigan is 0-10-1 ATS its last 11 games off an upset win, if Michigan was getting at least 4 points in that prior game.  That doesn't bode well for the Maize and Blue on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that the favored team has gone 2-7-1 ATS in Big 10 Conference Title games.  Or that Iowa is 17-5 ATS as a conference underdog of +7 (or more) points, if it owned a .666 (or better) win percentage.  Finally, Michigan falls into negative 22-52 and 74-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins, while Iowa falls into a very good 35-6 ATS post-season system of mine based on its season stats.  Take the Hawkeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Oklahoma State.  This game is a rematch of a game played back in October, in Stillwater.  The Cowboys were victorious at home in that game, 24-14, as a 3.5-point favorite.  Both teams were victorious last weekend.  The Bears edged Texas Tech, 27-24, as a 14-point home favorite, while Okie State outlasted its rival, Oklahoma, 37-33, as a 4-point home favorite.  We'll grab the points with Dava Aranda's Bears, as they're 15-3-1 ATS off a point spread loss, including 8-0-1 ATS away from home.  And they're also an awesome 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge, and not laying 7+ points.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 0-9 ATS away from home vs. .600 (or better) foes after playing their rival, Oklahoma, at home in Stillwater.  Take Baylor + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Utah.  These two Pac-12 rivals met in Utah last month, and the Utes routed Oregon, 38-7.  We had a big play on Utah in that game, as that was a stellar situation for the home team.  But we will switch gears and take the revenge-minded Ducks in this rematch.  Utah is a wallet-busting 6-23 ATS when favored (or PK) against a .571 (or better) revenge-minded foe.  And Oregon is a powerful 24-7-1 ATS away from home as an underdog of +3 or less points, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the post-season.  Take the Ducks + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Western Kentucky.  Texas-San Antonio's 11-game win streak was snapped last weekend, when it lost, 45-23, as a 9.5-point road favorite to North Texas.  But the good news for UTSA is that it's back home in the Alamodome on this Friday evening, where it will host Western Kentucky, a team it defeated, 52-46, as a 3.5-point road underdog, in October.  And the Roadrunners have been installed as a home underdog for this rematch.  That bodes well for Texas-San Antonio, as it's 13-3 ATS its last 16 as an underdog, including 5-0 ATS when off a double-digit loss, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS when getting 4 points or less.  Even better:  home underdogs with a .700 (or better) win percentage, off a loss by more than 20 points, have cashed 64% the past 42 years against conference foes off a win, including a perfect 10-0 ATS if that foe was playing with revenge.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over California.  Last week, the Bruins smashed cross-town rival, USC, by 29 points.  And that succeeded a 24-point blowout of Colorado here, at the Rose Bowl.  Tonight, they'll welcome the Golden Bears, who also won in blowout fashion last week, 41-11, against rival, Stanford.  We'll lay the points with UCLA, as home teams off back to back blowout wins by 24+ points, have cashed 61.1% since 1980 vs. foes also off a blowout 24-point SU/ATS win.  That bodes well for UCLA here.  As does the fact that this will be the 3rd straight road game for Cal.  And, unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit dogs off a conference win, have cashed just 18.7% of conference games, if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was also off a win.  Take UCLA to blow out the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  The Cards come into tonight's rivalry game off their two best games of the season.  Two weeks ago, they routed Syracuse, 41-3, as a 3-point home favorite.  And then they followed up that victory with a 62-22 destruction of Duke, in Durham.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home teams that can score.  And NCAA Football teams have cashed 65.3% at home since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win, if our home team was off back to back SU/ATS wins in which it scored more than 40 points, and it wasn't favored by more than 3 points in the current game.  Take Louisville minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas.  WVU is 5-6 on the season, and needs to win this afternoon to attain eligibility for a Bowl game.  Kansas has played great the previous two weeks, as it won, 57-56, as a 31-point underdog at Texas.  And then it covered the 21-point spread last week, in Fort Worth, vs. TCU (but lost 31-28).  We'll fade Kansas here, as underdogs of more than 14 points, off back-to-back covers as an underdog by more than 14 points, have cashed just 30.3% since 1980.  Take West Virginia to blow out the Jayhawks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns.  On the surface, this looks like a mismatch, with the Warhawks on a 4-game losing streak, and the Cajuns on a 10-game win streak.  But this Sun Belt conference rivalry has been dominated by the underdog, and especially the ROAD underdog, which has gone a staggering 16-0 ATS since 1998!  And that's the way we'll look today, as Louisiana Lafayette also falls into a negative 80-153 ATS system of mine which fades certain .900 (or better) teams off point spread wins.  Take Monroe + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Northwestern.  These two cross-state rivals have met 114 times, with the Wildcats winning each of the last six.  But this is a great spot for Illinois to snap this losing streak, as it hasn't been favored by this many points since 2011.  Indeed, it's been an underdog in eight of the last nine meetings (and, more often than not, a double-digit underdog).  But this season, Northwestern is suffering through a down year, and enters this game on a 5-game losing streak.  We'll lay the points, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 60% since 1981 when playing their final home game of the season against an opponent on a 5-game (or worse) losing streak.  Take Illinois.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbows upset the Colorado State Rams last week, on the Island, but now will play at Laramie, in their season finale.  Unfortunately for Hawaii, it's covered just 12 of 45 games off a win, if it was playing a conference foe also off a win.  And the Cowboys are 6-0-2 ATS their last eight vs. foes off an upset win, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home vs. Hawaii.  Take Wyoming.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes come into this game on a 9-game win streak, and have won their last two games by the scores of 59-31 and 56-7.  But I believe Jim Harbaugh's men are in prime position to snap their 8-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.  Michigan is 10-1 on the season, and has gone 9-2 ATS, while covering the spread by 8.18 ppg.  U-M has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that .700 (or better) teams, playing their final home game of the season, have cashed 71.8% in their final home game of the season against a conference foe off a double-digit win, if our home team was getting 7 or more points.  Even better:  road teams off back to back 38-point (or greater) wins have covered just 23.8% since 1980 in their final game of the season when matched up against a conference foe.  Take Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats' undefeated record will be put to the test this afternoon, as the Pirates certainly have the wherewithal to pull off the outright upset.  ECU has won four straight, and has covered six of seven coming into this contest.  And they've scored 45, 30 and 38 in their last three games.  Faithful followers know I love playing on home dogs that can score.  And home underdogs off 3+ wins, in which they've scored 113+ points, have cashed 60% over the last 42 years, including 14-3 ATS their last 17 when getting more than 7 points from an undefeated team.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State.  This game will be played bright-and-early on the West Coast -- a necessity since that was the only way for it to be televised by CBS.  We'll take the homestanding Aztecs as an underdog.  SDSU is 10-1 on the season.  And teams with a > .900 record have gone 74-46-5 ATS as home underdogs when matched up against opponents off a SU win, including 28-11 ATS if their opponent covered the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  That bodes well for Brady Hoke's men today.  As does the fact that SDSU is 12-5 ATS in its final home game of the season.  Take the Aztecs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  The Eagles pulled off a big upset last week, when they stunned Western Michigan, 22-21.  But they'll find the sledding tougher in Mt. Pleasant this afternoon, as the Chippewas are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, and have covered the spread in those three games by 20.5, 21.5 and 17.5 points.  Dating back 42 years, home teams off 3 straight covers by double-digits have cashed 60% when matched up against a conference foe off an upset win.  Even worse:  Eastern Michigan is a wallet-busting 9-25 ATS on the road off a home win.  Take Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Ole Miss.  This Egg Bowl rivalry is one of the best in College Football, and one reason for this is that the state of Mississippi has no professional sports teams or major cities.  The rivalry dates back to 1901, when Mississippi St (then known as Mississippi A&M) defeated Ole Miss, 17-0.  Ole Miss currently leads the series 63-46-6, including a win last year, 31-24, in Oxford.  Tonight's game will be played in Starkville, and we'll take the revenge-minded Bulldogs.  The revenger in this series has done quite well, as it's gone 24-15-1 ATS, including 9-1 ATS its last 10 when it owned a win percentage of .600 (or better).  Even better:  the Bulldogs come into this game off momentum-building, back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  And they have covered the last five in a row, culminating in last week's 55-10 thrashing of Tennessee St.  The Rebels have struggled over the years in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 3 points or less, as they've gone 18-33-2 ATS, including 1-12 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St Spartans + the points over Fresno St.  The Spartans suffered a 31-point upset loss at the hands of Utah St last week, 48-17, as a 4.5-point home favorite.  But prior to that loss, the Spartans had covered four straight games.  This afternoon, San Jose has been installed as a big home dog, and we'll grab the points, as we note that Mountain West Conference home dogs of more than 3 points have gone 41-20 ATS in their final home game of the season, including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss.  Take San Jose.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon.  The Utes come into this home game off back to back win over Stanford (52-7) and Arizona (38-29).  I love playing on home teams that can score, and especially when I don't have to lay a lot of points.  Indeed, over the last 42 years in the regular season, home teams not favored by 4+ points have cashed 60% following back to back wins away from home in which they scored more than 35 points.  Lay the points with Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Baylor.  The Wildcats have dropped the last three meetings vs. Baylor, but that streak should end here, in Manhattan, on Saturday.  Kansas State is on a 4-game win streak (and 3-game ATS win streak) following its 34-17 victory last Saturday against WVU.  And while Baylor also impressed last week with an upset win, at home, vs. then-undefeated Oklahoma, I expect a letdown away from home this weekend, as teams generally do just that off such wins (and especially when installed as a short road favorite, as they're 27-42 ATS).  Even worse, over the last 42 seasons, revenge-minded teams playing their final home game of the season, off a 17-point win, have gone 16-0 ATS when not laying double-digits vs. foes off an upset home win.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks won their biggest game, perhaps, since 2008's Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech, when they upset Texas last week.  The Jayhawks won, 57-56, in overtime, as a 31-point road underdog, and it was the first time since October 4, 2008 that the Jayhawks won on the Big 12 road!  Unfortunately, Kansas is back on the road in this game at TCU, which will be looking to redeem itself after a 63-17 blowout loss at Oklahoma State last weekend.  We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference teams are 0-10 ATS on the road off an upset road win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Michigan.  The Terps are 5-5 straight-up, but they've lost their last six to the spread.  And they need to win one of their final two games (Michigan, Rutgers) to attain Bowl eligibility.  It's true that Michigan has been a great point spread team this season, with an 8-2 ATS record.  But NCAA teams off an ATS win have gone 15-32 ATS vs. foes off 6+ ATS losses in a row.  And .500 (or better) teams off 6+ ATS losses have cashed 43 of 75 (57.3%), including 6-2 ATS as a home dog of +7 (or more) points.  With Michigan off a big road win against a good Penn State team, we'll look for a letdown this afternoon.  Take Maryland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves won their 2nd game of the season when they upset Louisiana Monroe last week, as a 3-point road underdog.  But they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row, as the Panthers have covered five straight (and seven of eight) heading into this game in Atlanta.  Last week's game was Georgia State's most impressive yet, as they won, 42-40, as a 12.5-point road underdog at Coastal Carolina.  And that bodes well for Georgia State here, as teams off a game where they covered the spread by 13+ points have gone 100-57 ATS as double-digit home favorites vs. foes off upset conference wins.  Lay the points with the Panthers.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  Michigan State is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, yet Sparty finds itself installed as a massive underdog against Ohio State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points but consider that, in matchups between unrested winning teams, underdogs of more than 14 points have covered just 28% since 1985, at Game 8 forward, when getting more than 14 in a regular season game, if they didn't own a worse W/L percentage!  That doesn't bode well for Michigan State, in Columbus on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Ohio State is 34-12-1 ATS when not laying more than 20 points, if its opponent owned a better ATS win percentage.  Take the Buckeyes to blow out Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners suffered their first loss of the season last week at Baylor, and are now 9-1 this season.  For all intents and purposes, that loss has eliminated Oklahoma from the National Title competition.  One of the things I love to do is play against certain teams that lose their first game late in the season, as they often suffer emotional letdowns following that initial defeat.  And this game vs. Iowa State is a very good place to step in and fade Oklahoma, as the Cyclones will play with revenge from a loss in last year's Big 12 Championship game.  Take Iowa State + the points.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Colorado.  Last year, the Buffaloes upset UCLA, 48-42, in Boulder, as a 7-point home underdog.  But with revenge on its mind, we'll lay the points with the Bruins, as it falls into a 68-36 ATS system of mind, which plays on certain rested home teams vs. unrested foes.  Even worse, last week, the Buffaloes upset Oregon State, 37-34, as an 11.5-point home dog.  Unfortunately, over the last 42 years, unrested teams off home upset wins have covered just 32.4% on the road vs. rested conference foes.  Take UCLA to blow out Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Texas A&M.  The Aggies have won (and covered) four straight games, dating back to their stunning upset of then-undefeated Alabama.  We played on the Aggies in that upset win, but will step in and go against them as a road favorite in Oxford.  Texas A&M has gone 25-63 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes, including 4-12 ATS as a favorite, if A&M won at home the previous game.  Take Ole Miss.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over New Mexico.  The Bulldogs were shocked last week, 40-14, as a 4.5-point home favorite by Boise State.  But off that upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 30 points, we'll look for Fresno to bounce back this evening.  This is Fresno's final home game of the year, and teams playing their final home game, off a loss by 20+ points, have gone 46-22 ATS when favored by 14+ points.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Stanford.  It's not often that one finds a team which has lost its last 11 meetings to an opponent also favored by more than 11 against that same opponent.  But that's our situation today, and we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Beavers.  Oregon State comes into this game off back to back upset losses at California, and at Colorado.  The good news is that they're playing a 3-6 Stanford team which is off 4 straight SU/ATS defeats, including a 52-7 loss to Utah last Friday.  We'll lay the points with the Beavers, as NCAA teams off back to back ATS losses as a road favorite have bounced back to cover 60% since 1980 vs. losing opposition.  Take Oregon State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Purdue.  The Boilers will look to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they visit the Big 10-leading Buckeyes in Columbus.  Last week, the Boilermakers knocked off then-undefeated Michigan State, 40-29, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  And the previous week, Purdue upset Nebraska, in Lincoln.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams fail to cover the spread more often than not following a win over an undefeated team (with a 5-0 or better record), including 31.5% when installed as a double-digit underdog vs. another good team, with a win percentage > .800.  Even worse for Purdue:  it catches Ohio State off back to back ATS losses to Penn State and Nebraska.  But the Buckeyes are 17-6 ATS vs. .666 (or better) Big 10 foes, if the Buckeyes were off back to back ATS losses to Big 10 foes.  Take Ohio State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Troy.  Billy Napier's men have won 8 straight games, and have sewn up their Sun Belt division championship.  Their next goal is to earn home field advantage in the Sun Belt Title game played next month.  To that end, I don't expect a letdown this afternoon vs. Troy.  Last week, the Cajuns failed to cover the spread vs. Georgia State.  But that sets up our play this afternoon, as Louisiana is 20-3-1 ATS on the road when not laying double-digits, if they were off a conference ATS loss in their previous game.  Finally, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS as a home dog priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take Louisiana Lafayette minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Iowa.  The Gophers stumbled last week at home vs. Illinois, but had won (and covered) four straight prior to that.  They'll now take on a scuffling Iowa team which has dropped its last three to the point spread.  And Iowa's offense has managed a meager 31 points combined in its three previous games.  I'm not a fan of playing on College Football teams that can't score.  Indeed, NCAA teams off 3 ATS losses, that have scored 31 or less combined points in those three games, have covered just 5 of 25 when not getting more than 17 points (and just 1 off 11 when installed as a favorite).  Take Minnesota + the points over Iowa.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over UAB.  Marshall comes into this game off 4 straight wins, and 3 straight covers, which sets them up in several 'momentum' systems of mine that have records of 93-50, 45-17 and 244-138 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Herd plays this game with revenge from a loss to UAB last season.  And Marshall is 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS as a revenge-minded home favorite.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Oklahoma.  The Bears are 7-2, but lost last week, 30-28, as a 7.5-point favorite in Fort Worth against TCU.  We played against the Bears as a road favorite in that game, but will switch gears, and take the points with Dave Aranda's men as a home dog against the 9-0 Sooners.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of less than 8 points, with a > .750 win percentage, have covered 89% after getting upset on the road in their previous game.  And Baylor's 23-6 ATS at home vs. foes not off a loss, including 10-0 ATS if Baylor wasn't laying 2+ points.  Take the home dog Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Mack Brown's men handed Wake Forest its first loss in nine games, with a thrilling, come-from-behind, 58-55 victory in Chapel Hill last Saturday.  We played on North Carolina in that game, but will fade them in the Steel City tonight, as teams off wins over undefeated teams (with an 8-0 or better record) are a soft 38% ATS since 1980 on the road, including just 26% ATS vs. winning foes.  North Carolina is 0-11 ATS off a home win over a conference foe, and a dreadful 11-28 ATS on the conference road against foes with a better conference record, if the Tar Heels weren't getting more than 10 points.  Meanwhile, Pitt is 32-16 ATS vs. winning conference foes, if the Panthers defeated a conference foe in their previous game.  Take the Panthers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Central Michigan.  We played on Kent State last week against Northern Illinois, and were rewarded with a 52-47 win (and cover).  And we also played on Central Michigan, as a 9-point road underdog vs. Western Michigan, and the Chips won that game outright, 42-30.  But off that huge road upset win, we'll fade the Chippewas tonight.  Indeed, Central Michigan has covered just 2 of 12 MAC Conference games following an upset win in a game they were an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And they're 4-10 their last 14 games as home favorites vs. conference foes.  Meanwhile, Kent State is 6-0 ATS off a SU/ATS win, if its opponent is off an upset win.  And the road team has covered 5 of 7 in this series.  Finally, MAC teams off upset wins as a dog of more than 7 points, have covered their subsequent game vs. a conference foe just 39% of the time.  Grab the points with Kent State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.  Bulls QB Kyle Vantrease left their previous game following a sack, but Buffalo coach Maurice Linguist stated last Thursday that he "fully expect[s] [him] to be ready."  But if Vantrease happens to be unavailable, then the Bulls will turn to back-up Matt Myers, who started five of Buffalo's games during the 2019 season.  In their last game, the Bulls were favored by 13.5, but were stunned by Bowling Green, 56-44.  And the Falcons not only came into the game ranked #119 in the country in scoring (19.5 ppg), but they hadn't won a conference game since November 2, 2019 - a string of 12 straight MAC defeats.  But off that embarrassing loss, I expect coach Linguist to have his players' full attention this week, especially since they need to win at least 2 of their final 3 games to attain Bowl eligibility.  For technical support, consider that NCAA teams off upset home losses, as a favorite of -13 (or more) points, to conference foes with an 0-4 (or worse) conference record, have bounced back nicely in their next game to cover the spread 73.9% of the time since 1980.  Grab the points with Buffalo.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Southern Cal.  This is a horrible weekend for USC to make the trip to Tempe.  Last week, the Sun Devils were upset here, at home, by Washington State.  And Arizona State was a 16.5-point favorite in that game.  To say the Sun Devils will want to make amends for that embarrassing loss is an understatement.  Even worse, it was ASU's second straight loss, as they fell at Utah in their game before that.  It's true that Southern Cal has won the last two meetings in this series, and the last three meetings here, in Tempe.  But revenge-minded Pac-12 Conference teams, off back to back losses, and favored by 8+ points at home, have covered 13 games in a row.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington.  Mario Cristobal's Ducks are ranked #4 in the latest NCAA Football rankings, and will be out to prove they deserve this lofty position when they take on the Huskies tonight, in Seattle.  Last week, the Ducks fell short "in Vegas," as they won by 23 vs. Colorado, but failed to cover the 24.5-point spread.  Unfortunately for Washington, it's a horrid 7-29 ATS at home vs. conference foes off a conference point spread defeat.  Oregon also fits a very strong 279-189 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Lay the points with the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over South Carolina.  The Gators lost last week to #1-ranked Georgia -- their 2nd consecutive defeat -- and will no doubt want to take out their frustrations on the over-matched Gamecocks.  At 4-4 on the season, Florida needs two more wins to qualify for the post-season, and I expect it to go all out today in Columbia.  The Gators are big road favorites, but NCAA teams that are favored by 20+ points, have gone 27-12 ATS off back to back losses, if they failed to cover the spread in those two defeats by 9+ points.  Take Florida minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Houston.  We played on Houston last Saturday, and they rewarded us with a win over then-undefeated SMU.  But off that big, emotional win, I look for a letdown today.  Indeed, the Cougars fall into a negative 22-67 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off wins over top-tier opponents.  And the Bulls are in a great spot here, off their blowout loss at East Carolina, as they're 10-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Bulls as a big home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU.  Nick Saban's men come into this game with an extra week off to rest, and prepare for LSU.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in the regular season when playing with an extra week of rest, and favored by 6+ points.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 23-40 ATS in the regular season when playing a rested opponent.  Finally, 'Bama is 7-0 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons vs. SEC Conference foes.  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over NC State.  The Wolfpack won SU/ATS last season in Raleigh vs. these Seminoles, 38-22, as a 13-point home favorite.  But that triumph has triggered super 91-32 and 197-97 ATS revenge systems (that we also used last night on Boston College).  Additionally, the Wolfpack have struggled on the road in competitively-priced games with point spreads of 7.5 (or less) points, as they've gone 14-35-2 ATS, including 2-15 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference opponents.  Finally, Florida State is 7-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog, when playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor.  Gary Patterson's tenure as TCU head coach has ended mid-way through his 21st season, so veteran coach Jerry Kill will take over for the rest of the season.  TCU has nowhere to go but up, in my opinion, following three double-digit SU/ATS losses to Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Kansas State.  And this point spread is inflated following the news of Patterson's departure, so I like the value with the Horned Frogs.  TCU has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings against Baylor.  And Baylor's 11-25 ATS vs. foes off three losses, including 0-9 ATS away from home vs. non-winning foes.  Take TCU + the points.

At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Navy.  The Irish will welcome the Midshipmen to South Bend, as they look for their 4th straight win and cover following last week's 44-34 home victory over North Carolina.  Meanwhile, Navy upset Tulsa on the road last Friday, 20-17, as a 12-point road dog.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine that go against Navy, including one with a 94-36 ATS record since 1980.  The Irish are 14-3-3 ATS vs. foes off upset wins, if that foe also covered the spread by 15+ points in its upset victory.  Take Notre Dame.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State.  WVU comes into this game off back to back wins over TCU and Iowa State.   And last week's win was most impressive, as the Mountaineers were a 7.5-point underdog against the then-22nd-ranked Cyclones.  This afternoon, WVU is once again a home underdog against #11 Oklahoma State, which enters on a 6-game ATS win streak.  Even though Okie State is red-hot, we'll grab the points with Neal Brown's men, as Big 12 Conference underdogs, off back to back wins, have gone 42-15 ATS at home, or on a neutral field, in the regular season when playing a conference foe which didn't fail to cover the spread in its previous game.  Take the Mountaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Wake Forest.  This is an odd situation, as it matches up two ACC schools, but -- because of scheduling limitations -- will be a "non-conference" game for the Conference standings!  We played on the undefeated Demon Deacons in their last road game -- a 70-56 rout of Army on Oct 23 -- but will now go the other way and play against them on Tobacco Road.  On the surface, it may look difficult to take North Carolina, given that it's off a double-digit loss to Notre Dame last week, and has failed to cover each of its last three games. But consider that undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 or better, are a poor 38% ATS away from home the past 42 seasons vs. foes off three ATS losses.  Wake Forest's perfect season ends today.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, in an EARLY game, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Air Force.  This game will be played on a neutral field, in Arlington, Texas.  And each of this teams come into this morning's game off losses to what was -- at least then -- an undefeated opponent.  Army was wiped out, 70-56, by unbeaten Wake Forest two weeks ago, while Air Force lost two weeks ago at home, as a 3-point favorite, to then-undefeated San Diego State.  Unfortunately, Air Force's upset defeat sets it up in a negative 43-115 ATS system today which goes against certain winning teams off upset losses.  Even worse:  the Falcons are 1-15 ATS their last 16 away from home off an upset loss!  Grab the points with Army.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU in ACC play, with blowout losses (by 14+ points) in each of their last three games.  That sets them up well for this game, as home teams that are off a SU/ATS loss, and are winless in conference play (with an 0-4 or worse record), have cashed 58.4% the past 42 years vs. foes off a point spread win.  Moreover, Boston College falls into a great 196-97 ATS revenge system of mine, based on their 40-14 loss at Virginia Tech last season.  Take the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Huskies won at Central Michigan in their last game, 39-38, as a 6-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mid-American Conference road teams have covered just 34% of conference games since 1999 as underdogs following an upset win over a conference foe as a 5-point (or greater) underdog.  Admittedly, the Huskies have dominated this series with 10 straight wins vs. Kent State.  But they were favored to win nine of those 10 games (by an average of 10.5 ppg), including -14.5, -7, -8, -25.5, -7 and -23 in the past six seasons.  Tonight, though, Kent has been installed as a home favorite for the first time in this series.  And they fall into an 81-44 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take the Golden Flashes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan.  The Chips come into this game off an upset home loss at the hands of Northern Illinois.  Central Michigan was favored by 6 points, but lost, 39-38.  Western Michigan also lost its last game, as it fell at Toledo, 34-15, as a 1.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chippewas, as Mid-American Conference teams are 35-10 ATS off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent also off a straight-up loss, including 20-3 ATS if our team was favored by 4+ points in their previous game.  Take Central Michigan + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over the SMU Mustangs.  This is a great Lone Star State match-up in the American Athletic Conference, as Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are 6-1, while Sonny Dykes' Mustangs are a game better, at 7-0.  The Ponies come into this game off a 55-26 blowout win over Tulane, as a 14-point favorite.  But SMU is an awful 9-28 ATS on the conference road off a win by 7+ points over a conference foe.  And it's 13-37 ATS as a road underdog of +10 points or less (or PK).  Meanwhile, Houston is a powerful 24-10 ATS its last 34 vs. conference foes that were undefeated in conference play, and it's also 9-1 ATS its last 10 vs. conference rivals that owned a .900 (or better) season W/L percentage.  Finally, SMU falls into a negative 6-31-1 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain undefeated teams.  Take Houston to blow out the Mustangs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky.  Mississippi State lost, 24-2, at Kentucky last season, so they'll be out to avenge that defeat on Saturday.  The task will no doubt be tough, as Mark Stoops' Wildcats are 4-1 in the SEC this season (and 5-0 ATS), and 6-1 overall.  Still, Kentucky finds itself the road underdog in Starkville this evening.  In their last game, they lost for the first time this season, as #1-ranked Georgia handed Kentucky a 30-13 setback.  Off that first defeat, we'll fade Kentucky on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State, as teams that sustain their first loss, following a 5-0 (or better) start to the season have covered just 43% over the last 42 years, including an awful 24 of 70 away from home vs. sub-.600 teams.  This season, there have already been 4 teams that fell into this general "bubble-burst" system, and those teams went 1-3 ATS, including Coastal Carolina not covering this past Thursday vs. Troy (as a 17-point favorite), and Penn State losing outright to Illinois last Saturday as a 24.5-point favorite!  The Bulldogs are also 16-8 ATS their last 24 at home vs. .857 (or better) opposition.  And they're also 26-14 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge.  Take Mississippi State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Texas El Paso.  The Miners are no doubt having strong season, as they're 6-1, including 3 straight wins to open their Conference USA schedule.  But .833 (or better) road underdogs of more than 5 points, with a 2-0 (or better) conference record, have covered just 36.7% of conference road games over the last 42 years.  And double-digit dogs have covered just 32.1% off 4 SU/ATS wins, if they're matched up against a conference foe off a double-digit win.  Florida Atlantic has won its three home games this season by 29, 37 and 32 points, and has won 11 straight at home dating back to November 9, 2019.  Even better:  since 2017, it's 24-4 SU and 15-9 ATS at home (including 7-0 ATS when priced from -8.5 to -15), and has covered the spread at home by an average of 7.34 ppg.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Sooners are a perfect 8-0 on the season, but struggled last week in a 12-point win at Kansas, as a 38-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Sooners, who are burning money this season, at 3-5 ATS.  But consider that NCAA teams, off wins by less than 13 points as 35-point (or greater) favorites, have bounced back to cover the spread in their next game 68.4% of the time since 1980.  Additionally, Oklahoma falls into one of my favorite systems which is 278-189-8 ATS which plays on certain teams off ATS defeats.   The Sooners have won 9 straight in this series and they're 7-1 ATS their last 8 at home vs. the Red Raiders.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Florida State.  Dabo Swinney's men have yet to cover the point spread this season.  The result is that we're now getting point spread value on the Tigers in this home game vs. Florida State, as they're favored by less than 10 points.  And winless ATS teams, favored by single digits, with a winning SU record, have covered 63.8% vs. conference foes off a SU win.  Even better:  the Seminoles are 1-6 ATS off a cover by 21+ points, if playing a conference foe off a loss.  And Clemson is 42-23 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes when not laying 10+ points.  Take the Tigers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Florida International.  The Panthers won their opening game vs. Long Island, but have lost all six games since, including a 34-19 defeat at home to Western Kentucky last Saturday.  Florida International is now 0-3 this season in Conference USA games; 0-8 SU since Nov. 9, 2010; and has covered just 3 of its last 13 conference games.  And, to make matters worse, Marshall had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  That's key, as the Panthers fall into a negative 28-69 ATS system of mine that goes against certain losing teams vs. a rested foe.  Lay the points with Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Wisconsin.  Kirk Ferentz's men have had two weeks to lick their wounds following their 17-point upset loss at the hands of Purdue, in Ames.  Then, the week after that game, Wisconsin blew out that same Purdue team by 17 points.  We actually had a huge play on Wisconsin last week.  But we will switch gears, and go against the Badgers as a home favorite on Saturday.  Indeed, I love playing on great teams, with an .833 (or better) win percentage, off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites, as such teams tend to rebound off those horrid upset defeats more often than not, and especially when not laying 20+ points, as they're 76% ATS over the last 41 seasons.  Moreover, Iowa is 20-8 ATS in Big 10 games off an upset conference loss, if they own a winning record.  Take the Hawkeyes + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The Panthers are on a roll, with 4 straight wins and covers.  And they'll welcome the Hurricanes to the Steel City on Saturday after Miami pulled off an upset against NC State last weekend.  But Miami is a wallet-breaking 1-12 ATS off a home win, while the Panthers are 17-5 ATS in conference games at home off a double-digit conference win.  And Pitt also falls into 113-42 and 270-178 ATS systems of mine that fade certain road teams off upset victories.  It's true that the Panthers' star WR, Jordan Addison (670 Yds, 10 TDs), who suffered a concussion last week, is a 'game-time decision.'  But Addison practiced in pads on Thursday, so even though he'll need medical clearance, there's optimism that he'll be on the field.  Regardless, we'll take Kenny Pickett & Co. on Saturday to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Illinois.  Last week, the Illini won a 9-overtime thriller vs. Penn State.  And the Illini were 24.5-point underdogs in that game.  Unfortunately, home underdogs off upset road wins as 17-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 37% over the last 42 years.  Take Rutgers minus the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa is 3-4 this season (after winning its last two games), and still has road games at #2 Cincinnati and #19 SMU.  So, unless it can pull a huge upset against either of those two juggernauts, it knows it must win the other 3 games on its schedule to qualify for a bowl game.  The good news is that its other three opponents are Navy (1-6), Tulane (1-6), and Temple (3-4), so there's no reason that Tulsa can't reach the post-season.  In its last game -- 13 days ago -- Tulsa eked out a 1-point win at South Florida, but failed to cover the 7-point spread.  But we'll look for the Golden Hurricane to bounce back on Friday, as it's 25-6-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread vs. a conference foe in its previous game, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS when laying 7+ points.  Additionally, Navy has covered just 5 of 23 off a loss when playing an opponent off back to back wins.  And Tulsa falls into a 271-173-3 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in the regular season.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over East Carolina.  The Bulls broke out in a big way in their last game, as they amassed a whopping 421 yards on the ground, in a 34-14 win vs. Temple, as a 1.5-point favorite.  South Florida has been installed as a double-digit underdog here, in Greenville, tonight.  And that bodes well for the Bulls, as East Carolina has covered just six of its last 23 as a favorite, including 0-6 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win!  Meanwhile, the Bulls are 17-9 ATS on the road vs. conference foes when not laying more than 3 points.  Finally, East Carolina falls into negative 111-210 and 56-125 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off SU losses.  Take The Bulls + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Utah.  The Utes have had an emotional two weeks, as they congregated for a memorial service 12 days ago for defensive back, Aaron Lowe, who died in late September.  On the football field, they've been resilient, as they're on a 3-game win streak to start Pac-12 play (after losing their first two Division 1 games this season to BYU and San Diego St).  They'll now try -- for the first time -- to start the Pac-12 season 4-0.  Unfortunately, teams undefeated in Pac-12 conference play, with a 2-0 (or better) record, have gone 28-47 ATS on the road vs. winning opposition, including 9-25 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  This is also a strong situation for Oregon State, as it will be playing with rest and revenge, off an upset loss.  Oregon State has dropped each of the past 5 meetings vs. Utah, and falls into a 61.7% ATS revenge system of mine.  Even better:  Oregon State had last week off to rest, and prepare for this game following its upset loss in Pullman, 31-24, against Washington State.  And the Beavers are 28-14 ATS in the regular season when playing with rest.  More good news for Oregon State:  its upset loss has triggered a 70% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home underdogs off an upset road defeat.  Finally, since 1980, the Beavers have cashed 71% off upset conference defeats, while the Utes are a poor 24-39 ATS as a road favorite of less than 11 points, including 1-5 ATS vs. foes off an upset defeat.  Take Oregon State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Roadrunners are ranked 20th in the country on the heels of a 7-0 start to the season.  But this will be a difficult spot for them to run their record to 8-0.  The Bulldogs should be in an ornery mood following their upset loss last week at UTEP -- a game in which they only scored 3 points, as a 6.5-point road favorite, and lost 19-3 (failing to cover by 22.5 points).  But home underdogs have covered 60.2% over the last 42 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home underdog was upset in its previous game, and failed to cover the spread by more than 22 points in that defeat.  Louisiana Tech is a solid 19-6 ATS off an upset loss, while the Roadrunners are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS as a favorite priced from -6 to -11 points.  Take Louisiana Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over East Carolina.  After starting the season with a loss to cross-state rival, Texas Tech, the Cougars have ripped off five straight wins, and they've covered four of those games.  And the last two both were blowouts on the road, as Houston won by 35 as a 3-point road underdog vs. Tulsa, and then went into New Orleans to trounce Tulane, 40-22, as a 6.5-point favorite.  Houston did have last weekend off to prepare for this game, and that bodes well for Houston here, as rested home favorites, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 64.7% of conference games over the last 42 years off back to back road wins, in which they covered the spread by 10+ points.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma State.  The Cyclones are 4-2 on the season, as they lost to Iowa in Week 2, and Baylor in Week 4.  But they also outyarded Iowa, 339-173, and outyarded Baylor 479-282.  Unfortunately, the Cyclones committed 5 turnovers in those two game combined, which sealed their fate.  The good news for Matt Campbell's men is that they've not turned it over in any of their last two games.  And if that disciplined play holds on Saturday, then they should hand the 6-0 Cowboys their first loss of the season.  We'll lay the points with Iowa State, as it falls into a 97-52 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, favored by more than 4 points on home or neutral fields against a .500 (or better) conference foe, that own an inferior record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Cowboys fall into negative 25-64, 62-126 and 28-78 systems following their upset win at Texas last week.  Take Iowa State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over UCLA.  The Bruins return home off a successful stint of road games, as they won at Arizona, 34-16, and also won at Washington, 24-17, to move to 3-1 SU/ATS in Pac-12 play.  Oregon sits a half-game back, as the Ducks are 2-1 SU (but 0-3 ATS) in conference games after downing California, 24-17, in Eugene last Friday.  We'll take the Ducks, as they're 17-6 ATS in Conference road games, if they owned a worse SU/ATS conference record than their opponent.  Additionally, the Bruins are 33% ATS since 1980 in Pac-12 games off back to back SU/ATS conference road wins.  And Oregon also falls into a 258-164 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .800 (or better) teams against foes off a win.  Take the Ducks to blow out UCLA.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets plus the points over Western Michigan.  The Rockets are 3-4 after dropping back to back MAC Conference games to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan.  And Toledo was favored by 13.5 and 5 points, respectively, in those games.  The good news, though, for the Rockets is that they're 17-2 SU and 12-4 ATS off back to back losses, if they weren't an underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  Toledo falls into a 65.4% ATS MAC angle, which plays on Mid-American Conference home dogs off back-to-back ATS losses, if they also lost their previous game SU, while their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Rockets to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ole Miss Rebels minus the points over LSU.  The Rebels won last week at Tennessee, 31-26, but their QB, Matt Corral, got banged-up in the process.  It's unclear whether Corral will line up under center this afternoon.  But, regardless, we will lay the points with Lane Kiffin's men.  The Tigers stunned Florida, 49-42, as a double-digit home underdog last week.  Unfortunately, underdogs have only covered 37% over the past 42 years off an upset win as a double-digit home dog the previous week, if matched up against foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Mississippi minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Purdue.  The Badgers come into this game off back to back wins over Illinois and Army, while the Boilermakers upset the then-undefeated Hawkeyes in their previous game.  We'll fade Purdue off that upset win, as they fall into a negative 28-99 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off big upsets.  Even better:  the Badgers have won 14 straight games vs. Purdue, and have covered their last 8 here in West Lafayette, and have also covered 7 straight when not favored by 17+ points.  Take Wisconsin to blow out the Boilers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats over Texas Tech.  The Wildcats have dropped three straight, including a 13-point loss to Iowa State last weekend.  But Kansas State is super 36-20 ATS in conference road games when the line was 7 points or less.  And it's 20-4 ATS in Big 12 games off a double-digit conference loss.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech comes into this game off a 41-14 blowout of Kansas.  But the Red Raiders are an awful 2-12 ATS off an ATS win, if they weren't getting double-digits.  Take the Wildcats on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Army.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 following their 40-37 victory at Syracuse two weeks ago.  They'll now take on a Black Knights squad which lost to Wisconsin, 20-14, last Saturday.  The extra week of rest will no doubt have served Dave Clawson's men well, given that they utilized that time to prepare for Army's flexbone triple option run game.  We'll lay the points with the rested Demon Deacons against the unrested Black Knights.  For technical support, consider that undefeated, rested teams have gone 130-93 ATS vs. unrested, non-conference foes, if our rested team wasn't getting more than 3 points.  Also, Wake Forest is 9-1 ATS off a win, when playing with rest, while Army is a poor 4-12 ATS when priced as an underdog of +3 to +14 points vs. rested foes.  Take the Demon Deacons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State.  The Rams come into this game off back to back blowout wins over San Jose (32-14) and New Mexico (36-7), while the Aggies are on an 0-3 ATS losing streak.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Rams minus the short number.  But NCAA home dogs, with a .666 (or better) record, have covered 60.4% of conference games over the past 42 years off 3 point spread defeats.  Take Utah State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors had last weekend off following their 27-24 upset home win on October 2nd vs. Fresno, while Nevada won by 27 here, in Reno, vs. New Mexico State.  This will be Hawaii's 3rd trip to the mainland this season, and they were smashed in the first two:  44-10 by UCLA, and 45-27 by Oregon State.  Over the years, I've loved playing against Hawaii on the mainland in certain situations, and this Saturday's game in Reno fits many of Hawaii's worst point spread roles, including this 100% perfect angle.  Since 1980, Hawaii is 0-16 ATS on the road, when rested, and installed as an underdog of +20 or less points.  Even better:  double-digit underdogs with a .363 (or better) record are a poor 35-73 ATS off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Arizona State.  We had a huge play on the Sun Devils last Friday, and won big in a 28-10 blowout win over Stanford.  That was ASU's third straight win and cover.  But this hot streak sets them up in a negative 28.4% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Utah also had an impressive breakout performance last Saturday, as it went into Los Angeles, and upset Southern Cal, 42-26, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  And that moved Utah's conference record to 2-0 this season.  So this "battle of unbeatens" will be a key game in the race for the conference championship.  We'll go against the Sun Devils on the road, as Pac-12 Conference teams, with a 3-0 (or better) conference record, have cashed just 17 of 53 road games vs. .500 (or better) conference foes off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over Boise State.  Air Force is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS after winning (and covering) at home vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  They'll now travel to Boise to take on a 3-3 Broncos squad.  Last week, the Broncos stunned the then-undefeated BYU Cougars, 26-17, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will look for a letdown by the Broncos on Saturday.  Indeed, that upset win was somewhat fortunate, given that BYU outyarded Boise, 413-312, but were doomed by four turnovers.  Last season, the Broncos went into Colorado Springs, and blew out the Falcons, 49-30.  Unfortunately, since 1980, .500 (or worse) teams are a soft 41% ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit win.  Additionally, teams off upset wins, as 6-point (or greater) dogs, over unbeaten teams that were 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 42% over the last 40 years vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Take the points with the Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Louisiana Tech.  We played on the Miners two weeks ago, and were rewarded with a 28-21 win and cover vs. Old Dominion.  The Miners are putting a nice season together, as they're 5-1 straight-up.  But they continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.  They're a home underdog on this Saturday vs. the 2-3 Bulldogs.  And we will happily grab the points with UTEP, as it falls into a 311-208 'momentum' angle of mine which plays on certain home teams with a win percentage greater than .750.  Moreover, home dogs have cashed 60.4% since 1990 if they owned a better record than their opponent, and were off back to back wins.  Take Texas El Paso + the number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Mississippi.  The Volunteers come into this game vs. Mississippi off back to back blowout wins.  They destroyed Missouri, 62-24, in Columbia, and then smashed South Carolina, 45-20, last week, as a 10.5-point home favorite.  Tennessee is now a small home underdog.  And I love playing on home dogs that can score.  Dating back to 1983, underdogs of more than 2 points have cashed 57% at home if they averaged more than 41 points per game.  Ole Miss can also score, as evidenced by its 52-51 victory last week against Arkansas.  But Ole miss is also 1-8-1 ATS its last 10 after scoring 49+ points, if its current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Volunteers + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  It's impossible to be worse than the Lobos have been "in Vegas" this season, as they're 0-6 ATS.  But faithful followers know that I've never shied away from playing on bad teams.  And I won't here, as New Mexico falls into a system which has cashed 58% since 1984, which plays on winless ATS teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) ATS record, against foes that didn't fail to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.   And New Mexico also falls into a 59-18 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off 3+ ATS losses, as well as an 81-37 ATS angle of mine which takes certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Take the Lobos as a big home underdog.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Texas A&M.  Last week, we played on the Aggies as an 18-point underdog vs. Alabama, and easily got the $$$ with an outright win vs. the defending national champions.  But off that big victory, we will fade the Aggies today away from home.  Indeed, Texas A&M is a horrid 11-26 ATS on the road vs. a .500 (or better) foe following a home victory at College Station.  And it's 1-4 ATS its last five vs. Missouri.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 14-3 ATS as a home underdog, priced from +7 to +15 points vs. a foe off a SU win.  And, finally, NCAA teams are an ugly 0-8 ATS away from home following a home win over the defending national champions, if they're priced from -8 to -18 points.  Take the home underdog Tigers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan State.  Mel Tucker's Spartans are a spotless 6-0 on the season, and they're 5-0-1 ATS.  But we will fade Michigan State as a road favorite in Bloomington against a rested Hoosiers squad.  Indiana last took the field against the then-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions, and was shut out, 24-0 (coincidentally, the same score by which Indiana defeated Michigan State in East Lansing last season).  But over the last 42 years, underdogs of +3 (or more) points off shutout home losses have cashed 63.3% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Indeed, Michigan State was in this exact same situation last season following its 24-0 home loss to Indiana, and rebounded to upset Northwestern, 29-20, as a 13.5-point underdog (when Northwestern was 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).  Take Indiana to pull off the mild upset.  Grab the points with the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs are 5-0 on the season, with ATS wins in each of their last four games.  In contrast, the Spartans are scuffling, with a 3-3 record, but five straight ATS losses in their last five.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Aztecs.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams playing conference games away from home are a soft 67-97 ATS if they're off a win, and 3+ ATS wins, while their foe is off 3+ ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for San Diego State as a huge road favorite tonight.  Nor does the fact that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, are a wallet-busting 29-59 ATS away from home, if they're off back to back ATS wins, and favored by 7+ points against an opponent with a .444 (or better) record.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Navy.  The Tigers enter tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while Navy has covered the point spread in each of its last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Midshipmen here, especially given Navy's vaunted road ATS mark over the last 33 seasons.  But consider that NCAA favorites of 3+ points have covered the spread 64% since 1980 off 3+ losses, if they're playing an opponent off 3 ATS wins.  Additionally, Memphis is a terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points off back to back losses, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. conference foes.  Take the Tigers to blow out Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.