At 7 pm, our selection is on the Dartmouth Big Green + the points over Brown.  The Bruins pulled off a big upset win, 84-73, last night at Harvard.  Unfortunately, though, Brown is 0-11 ATS its last 11 as a favorite off an upset win.  Take Dartmouth + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Dakota Coyotes + the points over South Dakota St.  This rivalry series has been good to the underdog, as the dog is 10-4 ATS, including 6-1 ATS off a straight-up loss.  With the Coyotes in on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, we'll grab the points with South Dakota this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Princeton Tigers minus the points over Cornell.  The Tigers won their sixth straight game last night, with a 15-point win over Columbia.  And Princeton is 17-9 ATS its last 26.  It's also dominated Cornell over the years, and especially in this price range, as Princeton is 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS (including 9-0 ATS its last nine) when favored between -5.5 and -11 points vs. the Big Red.  Lay the points with Princeton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Charleston Southern + the points over North Carolina-Asheville.  The Bulldogs pulled off a big upset on the road in their last game -- a 60-54 win at Campbell, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a negative 133-226 ATS system of mine that goes against certain double-digit favorites off road upset wins.  Even worse for Asheville:  it's 5-12 ATS off a conference win.  Grab the points with the Buccaneers.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos will wind-up their season this afternoon in front of their home faithful.  And, although it's been a losing season, Denver's defense has played well, and has given up more than 23 points just four times this season.  That bodes well for them as a big underdog, as NFL teams that give up 21 or less points per game have gone 113-81 ATS in the regular season as an underdog of +10.5 (or more) points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Grambling Tigers + the points over Bethune Cookman.  This will be the Wildcats' 2nd game in its new conference -- the Southwestern Athletic Conference -- after playing for years in the MEAC.  The Wildcats will host Grambling this afternoon, and we'll grab the points with the Tigers, who are on a 6-game losing streak.  But Grambling is undervalued, and it also falls into a 76-26 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with losing records.  Take the Tigers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our Mountain West Game of the Week is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rams are 11-0, but have not yet played a true road game.  So, this afternoon's game against the Aztecs will be their first.  And we'll go against Colorado State, as it falls into a negative 78-160 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams that have played home-heavy schedules to start the season.  Even better for San Diego State:  it's won its last four, straight-up, and has covered its last three.  And the short price this afternoon has triggered a 232-135 ATS momentum system of mine which plays on certain home teams on 3-game SU/ATS win streaks, that are not favored by more than six points.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Kansas.  The Jayhawks have been installed as a road favorite following their win at Oklahoma State, which raised their record to 12-1 on the season.  But Kansas falls into a negative 72-136 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road favorites off road wins, while Texas Tech falls into a super 161-72 ATS angle, which plays on certain single-digit underdogs with winning SU/ATS records.  Take Texas Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies are in the midst of an 8-game win streak after walloping Detroit, 118-88, on Thursday.  But NBA teams that have won 5+ games in a row, and won their most recent game by more than 25 points, have gone 4-26 ATS their last 30.  Take Los Angeles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over Texas Arlington.  The Eagles are 0-2 in conference play after dropping road games at Arkansas Little Rock, and at Arkansas State.  Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 3-0 in the Sun Belt following wins against South Alabama, Troy and Georgia State.  The good news for the Eagles is that they're back home, where they've yet to lose this season.  And they're 18-9-2 ATS their last 29 at home vs. a foe off a win.  Lay the points with Georgia Southern.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Western Illinois Leathernecks + the points over Oral Roberts.  The Golden Eagles are 10-6 SU and 9-3-1 ATS this season.  And although those are solid numbers, when one delves deeper into Oral Roberts' stats, one will find that Oral Roberts has covered the spread at home by 9.2 ppg, but has failed to cover the spread on the road by -1.31 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Leathernecks are covering the spread at home this season by 6.62 ppg.  Take Western Illinois as a home underdog.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Rhode Island Rams + the points over Davidson.  This is a great match-up between the 9-3 Rams and the 11-2 Wildcats.  We'll take the points with Rhode Island, as it's 9-3-1 ATS its last 13 vs. .742 (or better) foes, while Davidson is a soft 36-55 ATS its last 91 vs. .742 (or better) foes.  Take the Rams + the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on IUPUI + the points over Wright State.  The Raiders are on a 5-game win streak following their 18-point blowout of Illinois-Chicago, while the Jaguars are riding a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak.  But Wright State is a woeful 0-7 ATS at home off a double-digit win.  Take the points with IUPUI.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Cleveland.  The Blazers have been installed as a home underdog tonight vs. the upstart Cavaliers.  And, even though Portland has disappointed this season, with a 14-23 record, it's a solid 42-11 ATS in non-division games, priced from +6 to -2.5 points, when it's owned a win percentage less than .379, including 22-2 ATS its last 24.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Chicago.  This is a revenge game for Washington, which lost by a single point, on Saturday, at home vs. the Bulls.  We'll grab the points with the Wizards, as they're 80-46 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 38-17 ATS on the road vs. a foe off a win.  Take Washington + the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Nets play this game with revenge from a 23-point loss to open the season.  That should serve as motivation tonight, and especially given the fact that the Bucks also bounced Brooklyn out of the playoffs last season.  The Nets are a solid 65-28 ATS in the regular season when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 12 points, while Milwaukee is a poor 4-17 ATS when getting more than 2 points.  Take the Nets minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  After missing five games, the Spurs' best player, Dejounte Murray returned to the lineup vs. Boston, on Wednesday.  And San Antonio covered for the 11th time in their last 15 games with Murray on the court.  We played on the Spurs in that game, and we'll come right back with them tonight.  Importantly, when you look at some of the wins and/or covers in this stretch, it includes many of the elite teams in the league.  The Spurs won at Golden State, 112-107, as a 9-point dog; covered at Phoenix, as a 7.5-point dog; won at Utah, 128-126, as an 11.5-point underdog, and covered vs. Utah, as a 7-point home favorite.  They also blew out the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Trail Blazers.  Tonight, San Antonio will play another elite team in the 76ers, and we will take San Antonio as an underdog in this game, as it is 20-7 ATS as a road underdog of more than 6 points, including 11-0 ATS off a win!  Take the Spurs.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the New York Rangers.  Goalie Robin Lehner has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is all we need to pull the trigger on the Golden Knights in this game.  The Knights have started this 8-game home stand with a 1-2 mark, but they've been without their #1 goalie, Lehner, for each of those games. In Tuesday's 3-2 loss to Nashville, third-string goalie Logan Thompson was between the pipes for the first time this season, and let in three goals on 26 shots.  And in the game prior to that, second-string goalie, Laurent Brossoit, allowed 5 goals on 37 shots, in a 5-4 loss to the Jets.  The good news for tonight's game is that the Knights have won each of Lehner's last six starts.  And they're also 12-2 after back to back losses by a single goal.  Take Vegas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee St.  The Owls will welcome the Blue Raiders to Tudor Fieldhouse tonight, and will look to bounce back off a blowout loss five days ago at North Texas.  The Owls were a 10-point underdog in that game, but lost by 32 points.  Rice, though, has been terrific of late, at home, as it's 10-1-1 ATS its last 12.  And it's also 15-9 ATS off a blowout loss by 15+ points.  Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders are a wallet-busting 9-21 ATS away from home when not getting more than 9 points.  Finally, the Owls have covered the last five in this series.  Lay the points with Rice.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Penn State.  Northwestern comes into this home game off a loss to Michigan St., while Penn St. upset the Indiana Hoosiers last Sunday, in Happy Valley.  We'll lay the points with Chris Collins' troops, as Big 10 home favorites of less than 10 points (or PK) have gone 44-22 off a loss, if they were matched up against a conference opponent off a home upset win.  Take Northwestern.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Creighton.  The Blue Jays stunned Villanova earlier this year, when it blew out the Wildcats, 79-59, as a 7-point home underdog.  We'll take Jay Wright's men in this rematch, as they're 27-14 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS when priced from -8 to -12.5 points. Lay the points.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto.  The Bucks will look to start a new win streak tonight, after their six-game streak was snapped by -- of all teams -- Detroit.  The Pistons had lost each of their previous 16 games to Milwaukee, and were also 2-18 over their previous 20 games, yet stunned Milwaukee, 115-106, as a 17-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Mike Budenholzer's men, as single-digit favorites have gone 183-138 ATS off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite.  Additionally, the Bucks are 8-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points, if they were off a loss, and playing with revenge from a loss to their opponent earlier in the season.  With the defending Champs, indeed, playing with revenge from a 97-93 defeat to the Raptors, we'll take the homestanding Bucks tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Boston.  San Antone's leading scorer (and best player), Dejounte Murray (17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 8.8 apg), will be back on the court tonight after missing the Spurs' previous five games (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS).  We'll grab the points with the Spurs, as they're 16-4 ATS in the regular season as an underdog of +3 (or more) points off a double-digit loss, if they're playing a foe off back to back wins.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Indiana.  The main storyline tonight is that G Kyrie Irving will play for the first time this season, due to his refusal to get vaccinated.  He can't play home games, or games in various other cities, because of those cities' regulations.  However, Indianapolis doesn't have such restrictions in place, and the Nets' management has reversed course on its earlier decision to ban Irving across the board.  Certainly, Brooklyn needs his production.  The Nets have been floundering (given their talent) against the league's elite units, and only have a 23-12 record because they've beat up on the NBA's lesser teams.  Indiana certainly doesn't qualify as "elite," as it has lost twice as many games as has Brooklyn.  And the Pacers currently have several key players sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols, including their leading scorer, Malcolm Brogdon.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS on the road off a point spread loss, including 7-0 ATS if they also lost their previous game, straight-up.  Lay the points with Brooklyn.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks OVER the total.  This is the season's first meeting for these teams.  But they met three times last season, and all 3 games not only went OVER the total.  And they were all extremely high-scoring, as they generated 236, 266 and 263 points.  Even better:  the last seven meetings here, in Dallas, have gone OVER the total, and those games produced an average of 243.1 points.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm minus the points over DePaul.  The Blue Demons have been poor in Big East Conference play, and especially when they've not gotten more than 6 points.  In that situation, they've covered just five of 26.  DePaul will visit a St. John's team which was upset by Pitt, 59-57, as an 11-point favorite in its last game.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points today, as St. John's is 26-12 ATS at home off a loss.  Take St. John's.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Clemson.  Tony Bennett has transformed Virginia into a national power since being hired away from Washington State more than 10 years ago.  And though the Cavaliers are certainly strong in many situations, one of their best situations under coach Bennett is when they play with revenge.  And Virginia is currently riding an 11-1 SU/ATS run when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season (and 32-12 ATS if one would include revenge from a prior season).  The Tigers upset Virginia in Charlottesville last month, 67-50.  Take Virginia + the points in the rematch.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on LSU and Kansas State OVER the total.  The Tigers will play this Bowl game with two freshman options at quarterback, neither of whom has played.  And both were walk-ons!  So, interim had coach Brad Davis will have his choice between Tavion Faulk and Matt O'Dowd.  The result of this huge question mark at signal caller is that this Over/Under line is the 2nd lowest of LSU's 13 games this season.  And it represents the 2nd lowest Over/Under line for Kansas State, as well.  By my math, the oddsmakers have adjusted this number downward by too much, and there's significant value on the OVER.  Additionally, there are two other factors that I believe will contribute to a higher-scoring game.  First, Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson is healthy, and at full strength.  And he's been throwing and running the ball extremely well in practice leading up to this game, so that bodes well for the Wildcats' offense tonight.  And the 2nd factor is that Kansas State will have a new offensive coordinator for this game.  Quarterbacks coach Collin Klein (who also was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2012) will call the offensive plays following the dismissal of Courtney Messingham last month.  I expect Klein to put his stamp on the offense, and possibly go up-tempo.  Indeed, several of Kansas State's beat writers have commented on Messingham's failure to ever play at a fast pace, or even call trick plays -- with the implication that Klein will be much different than Messingham.  I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Lipscomb Bisons minus the points over North Alabama.  The Lions come into this game off a point spread win against Gonzaga, which was the Lions' 4th straight cover.  And tonight, they're in Nashville to play the Bisons, who are headed in the opposite direction -- with respect to the point spread -- as they've failed to cover their last four games.  But we'll take the Bisons on this Tuesday, as they fall into 139-91 and 196-127 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off ATS losses.  Additionally, Lipscomb plays this game with revenge from an upset loss to North Alabama last season.  But revenge-minded NCAA teams off 4+ ATS losses have covered 60.2% since 1990 when favored against an opponent off 4 ATS wins.  Lay the points with Lipscomb.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Toronto.  Gregg Popovich's crew has lost three straight games.  But two of them were to Utah and Memphis, who will both be in the Playoffs at season's end.  The Raptors, on the other hand, will likely not be in the post-season, as they have a losing record, even though they've played 19 of their 33 games at home thus far.  Tonight, Toronto will once again be at home.  But the Spurs have cashed 64% on the road in the regular season off 3+ losses, if the Spurs were playing with rest.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The Lightning come into tonight's game in perhaps the biggest funk of the season so far.  The Bolts are 0-3 in their last three games, having been out-scored by a total of 17-6 by the Panthers and Rangers.  But the good news is that Tampa recently got the game's best goalie back on the ice as Andrei Vasilevskiy played on Sunday for the first time in two weeks.  He took the loss against the Rangers, but that rust he exhibited was to be expected and we will likely see a much sharper netminder for the visitors tonight.  Even with the poor performance on Sunday, Vasilevskiy still has a 2.21 GAA and .921 saves pct to go with his league-leading 17 victories.  And at this point, the rest of the Bolts' roster is near 100% healthy coming in so that combined with the fact that they're playing the Blue Jackets are good indications that they could break out of their funk in this game.  The Bolts are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Jackets and 5-2 in the last seven here in Columbus.  And they're 5-0 off a shutout loss, and 29-10 after losing by 2+ goals in their previous game.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers over Kentucky.  The Tigers are 12-1 SU, and 10-3 ATS on the season, with each point spread defeat coming away from Baton Rouge.  The good news for LSU tonight, then, is that this game is at home, where it has covered all eight games this season (and 11 in a row, dating back to last year).  More good news:  Kentucky is a wallet-breaking 2-11 ATS on the road off back to back double-digit home wins.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama A&M Bulldogs minus the points over Arkansas Pine Bluff.  The Bulldogs are 1-9, and will look to snap a 9-game losing streak tonight when they visit the Lions, are are 0-11 this season vs. division 1 programs. Pine Bluff is 45-58 ATS as an underdog, and also 1-9 ATS its last 10 when priced from +1.5 to +9 points.   Meanwhile, Alabama A&M falls into a 105-58 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road favorites with losing records.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over New Orleans.  The Jazz lost to Golden State, 123-116, in their last game.  But Utah's a solid 72-40 ATS as a rested favorite of 13 (or less) points off an upset loss as a 5-point (or greater) favorite, including 14-2 ATS on the road vs. opponents with a win percentage between .200 and .400.  Take the Jazz to bounce back on Monday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Memphis.  The Nets are finally healthy, but pulled a clunker in their last game -- a four-point loss to the Clippers, as a 14-point favorite.  So, Brooklyn failed to cover the spread by 18 points.  And that was Brooklyn's 2nd straight defeat, as it was upset, 110-102, by the 76ers before that.  The Nets typically bounce back from such poor performances, and are 4-0 ATS this season after not covering by 17+ points.  And they're also 67% ATS over the last 10 years after not covering by 10+ points in back to back games.  Take the Nets to rebound strong with a win over the Grizzlies.  Lay the points.  Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the New York Rangers.  The Oilers come into today's game off of three consecutive road losses while the Rangers come in off of a home-and-home sweep of the defending Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning.  But Edmonton has had a day off while the Rangers are on a quick turnaround after yesterday's matinee here at the Garden.  With regular #1 goalie Igor Shesterkin having played in three straight for the home team, the Rangers will likely go with back-up Alexandar Georgiev tonight between the pipes.  On the surface, that doesn't seem like a problem, but you have to consider that the 25-year-old Bulgarian has just come off of COVID protocol and is pretty cold coming in, not having played since December 17.  The Rangers will also be without their points-leader as LW Artemi Panarin has been placed on COVID protocol and will miss an undetermined amount of time.  This is a great opportunity for the Oilers to get back on track this season as they are 5-0 in the last five meetings with the Rangers, and 20-9 off a loss.  Take Edmonton.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Minnesota.  The T-Wolves won the season's first two meetings, as they crushed the Lakers in L.A., 107-83, and then upset them in Minneapolis, 110-92, on Dec. 17.  But the T-Wolves are a poor 0-7 ATS their last seven as road underdogs of +7 or more points, when their foe was playing with double-revenge.  And rested, double-revenging favorites, who were upset in the most recent meeting, have been a profitable 101-67 ATS.  Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns was the leading scorer in each of the first two games (for either team) with 29, and 28 points, respectively.  But Towns won't play tonight due to the COVID-19 quarantine.  Take Los Angeles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Vikings in the first meeting, and got the $$$ when Minny upended Green Bay, 34-31, in a wild affair.  But this game should have not near that level of drama, as Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has been sidelined.  Sean Mannion will replace Cousins, so that's a big reason for us to be pulling the trigger on Green Bay.  With Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  And Green Bay is a virtually perfect 9-1 ATS when priced from -11.5 to -13 points with Rodgers, so that also bodes well for Matt LaFleur's men.  As does the fact that Green Bay is 38-13 ATS at home in the final four regular season games, if the Packers owned a win percentage greater than .625.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder 'OVER' the total.  The Mavericks and Thunder met here on December 12, and the Mavs won a very low-scoring game, 103-84.  It went 'under' the total of 206.5 by 19.5 points.  But Dallas was without its best player, Luka Doncic, in that game, so Jalen Brunson picked up the slack and scored 18 points.  The good news for Dallas is that Doncic has been cleared to finally return tonight, after missing the team's last 10 games.  And we will look for a high scoring game on this Sunday, as NBA games tend to go over the total when the previous meeting went under by more than 19 points.  Additionally, the OVER falls into a 179-128 Totals system of mine.  Take Dallas/OKC Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have scored a grand total of 12 points in their last two games combined.  Yet they're favored by more than 6 points this afternoon against a division rival which held them to 7 points in the first meeting.  Admittedly, Carolina is not a very good team right now, as it's lost five straight games (both SU and ATS).  But I still will happily take the points in this matchup.  Indeed, NFL teams off 5 SU/ATS losses have gone 103-68-3 ATS.  Moreover, New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 16-44-1 ATS at home vs. division foe off a loss.  And Carolina is 44-21 ATS as a road underdog vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Grab the points with the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Houston.  The Texans pulled off a massive upset last week, when they took down the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29, as a 13-point underdog.  And that was Houston's 2nd straight upset victory, as it went into Jacksonville two weeks ago and surprised the Jaguars with a 30-16 triumph.  Generally, NFL teams are poor after winning a game as a 13-point (or greater) underdog, as they've gone 12-26 ATS their last 38.  And road teams off back to back upset wins are a soft 49-77-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes.  Take San Francisco minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers UNDER the total.  The Broncos come into this game off back to back unders, and they've also gone under in 12 of 15 games this season, including 6 of 7 road games.  Even better:  dating back 44 years, the Chargers have gone 'under' 81-34-1 at home vs. division rivals, including 18-5 'under' the past eight seasons, and 26-9 'under' when priced from 44 to 47.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset Denver at home last week.  Unfortunately, they're a poor 6-26 ATS off a home upset win, so that doesn't bode well for the Silver and Black today.  Also, this season, Indianapolis has been the best point spread team.  It ranks #1 (tied with New England) in average point spread differential (+6.40), but the Colts edge the Patriots' in ATS win percentage, as Indy is 10-5 ATS while New England is 9-6 ATS.  The Colts ATS percentage is tied (with Detroit) for 3rd, and only bettered by Green Bay (11-4 ATS) and Dallas (12-3 ATS).  I look for Indianapolis' success to continue this afternoon, especially since it received welcome news when QB Carson Wentz was upgraded to 'probable.'  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team to go UNDER the total.  These two teams played a mere two weeks ago.  Washington QB Taylor Heinicke missed that game, with Garrett Gilbert starting in his stead, and the over/under line was set at 39.5 points.  Heinicke is back for this game, so the over/under line has been adjusted higher.  But it's been adjusted a bit too much, very likely due to the two teams' most recent scores.  Philadelphia has played its last three games over the total, and has scored 33, 27 and 34 in its last three games.  Meanwhile, Washington gave up 27, 27 and 56 in its last three games.  But teams have gone 'under' the total in 11 of 15 games following a game in which they allowed 54+ points.  And the Eagles have played their last five UNDER following 3 overs (and 26 of their last 36 UNDER following 3 overs), including 14 of 17 UNDER it it was a division game.  Take Washington and Philly to go UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Rangers.  This is the back-end of a home-and-home series between the Rangers and Lightning.  Round one was on Friday and the Rangers were successful in Florida in a very close game which required a shootout.  Now the two teams have traveled north to Manhattan for this afternoon matinee and critical re-match between two teams with almost identical winning records and it seems likely the Rangers will be slight favorites today.  The good news for the Bolts is that they generally do very well in these situations -- i.e., the second half of a back-to-back series.  Just a month ago, the Lightning lost the first game of a home-and-home series to the Blues by exactly the same score and came back in the second game two days later to get a big win, 4-2.  Despite the Friday loss, the Bolts are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Rangers overall and 4-1 in the last five here in Madison Square Garden.  And they're a spectacular 25-5 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Meanwhile, New York has won just six of its last 20 home games following a road victory.  Take Tampa.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Dixie State Trailblazers + the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats are 10-2 SU, and 7-1 ATS, with seven straight ATS wins coming into tonight.  Here, Abilene Christian has been installed as a big favorite on the road vs. Dixie State.  But Western Athletic Conference teams off 3+ point spread wins, that are favored by 8 (or more) points, have cashed just 30.7 percent vs. conference foes off back to back ATS losses, including 0-14 ATS if our favored team owned a win percentage greater than .750 and less than .850.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears and Mississippi Rebels 'OVER' the total.  These two teams have both played a string of unders coming into this Sugar Bowl.  Baylor has gone 'under' in four straight games, while Ole Miss has gone 'under' in seven straight.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest number for an Ole Miss game this season.  The average line on Ole Miss totals this season has been 70.62.  With Baylor's games, it's been 56.25, for a blended average of 63.43.  So, this line has been significantly adjusted for the two teams' string of unders.  Indeed, at the start of Ole Miss' 7-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Tennessee was 82.5 points!  At the start of Baylor's 4-game 'under' streak, the O/U line for its game against Oklahoma was 63.5 points.  The 'over' falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 62.6%, which plays on certain games -- with over/under lines greater than 55 -- to go 'over' the total, as well as a 2nd angle which has won 58.4%.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St. Louis Blues.  The 2022 version of the NHL Winter Classic will feature the two teams that were supposed to play last year.  The 2021 game was postponed due to COVID concerns that ironically still seem to be prevalent in the hockey headlines a year later.  The good news is that both of these clubs appear to be relatively healthy compared to others in the league so tonight's games should feature most of the regular players on both sides of the ice.  The unfortunate part -- perhaps more for the fans in attendance -- is that the weather will not be cooperating as sub-zero temperatures are forecast.  This will be the Wild's first game in 12 days as the League's schedule halted temporarily over the Christmas holiday.  The Wild had lost four straight before the pause after winning eight in a row between November 24 and December 9.  Minny is no doubt looking forward to getting back to action with a healthy roster albeit in less than ideal conditions.  The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two clubs.  Take the Wild.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Utah.  The Buckeyes were upset, 42-27, as a 6.5-point road favorite by a Michigan team on a mission to end its long, 8-game losing streak to its rival.  But off that upset loss, we'll step in and take Ohio State in this Rose Bowl matchup vs. Utah.  Ohio State is a solid 12-4 ATS away from home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if it failed to cover the spread by 18+ points in its previous game.  And it's 42-19-1 ATS away from home when not laying more than 10 points, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .600 and less than .800.  Lay the points with the Buckeyes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Central Connecticut State.  Rutgers had 17 days off between games due COVID-19, but returned to the court on December 30 vs. Maine.  The Scarlet Knights shook off the rust to get by the Black Bears, 80-64, as a 24.5-point home favorite.  This will be the final non-conference game in its regular season schedule, as the Knights will resume Big 10 Conference play on Tuesday.  We'll lay the points with Rutgers, as it will be hosting a Blue Devils squad which comes in off a 12-point upset win over St Francis.  Since 1990, Big 10 Conference teams have cashed 67.2% as favorites of more than 15 points vs. non-conference foes off upset wins.  Additionally, the Scarlet Knights are 12-3-1 ATS at home vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win, while the Blue Devils are a poor 4-12 ATS as an underdog of 14+ points.  And Rutgers also falls into 19-0, 74-29 and 306-213 ATS systems of mine that play against certain foes off upset wins.  Take the Scarlet Knights to blow out the Blue Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State.  The Wolfpack enter this ACC Conference game off four straight losses, while Florida State is in off a win against Lipscomb.  We played on the Seminoles in that game, and were rewarded with a 97-60 blowout win over the Bisons.  We'll switch gears on this New Year's Day, and fade Florida State in Raleigh.  Since 1990, NC State has covered 62.2 percent as an underdog off back to back losses, if its opponent was off a point spread win.  Grab the points with the homestanding Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons + the points over Providence.  DePaul looks to bounce back this afternoon after falling by four points at Butler, on Wednedsay, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Meanwhile, Providence comes into this game off a big win over nationally ranked Seton Hall earlier this week.  And that was the Friars' 7th straight win.  But Providence has covered just four of 20 games after winning their previous six games.  And it's also a dreadful 1-14 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. an opponent off a straight-up loss.  Take DePaul + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Toledo.  The Golden Flashes come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while the Rockets are in off back to back victories over Marshall and Western Michigan.  The Golden Flashes are a fantastic 30-8-2 ATS at home when favored by 10 or less points (or PK), if they were off a point spread loss, and matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Lay the points with Kent State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish have reeled off seven straight wins to end their season, but I'm not impressed, given the slate of teams they defeated.  Of the seven teams, only Virginia Tech and North Carolina made a bowl game.  And both were slaughtered this past week, as North Carolina lost by 17 as a 12-point favorite vs. South Carolina (failing to cover by 29), while Virginia Tech was shredded by Maryland, 54-10 (and failed to cover by 39.5 points).  Those were two of the three worst Bowl performances relative to the spread this season (Mississippi State was the 2nd worst, at -36.5 points).  In contrast, Oklahoma State came within inches of finishing the season with its own 6-game win streak.  But Baylor's defense stopped Oklahoma State just short of the goal line in the Big 12 Championship game to preserve the win for the Bears.  But if you look at Oklahoma State's opponents down the stretch, you'll see teams like Baylor, Okahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.  The Bears have yet to play their Bowl game, but Oklahoma and Texas Tech were both dominant, as they covered the spread by 8 and 36.5 points, respectively.  By my numbers Oklahoma State rates as the better team, yet it's been installed as a small underdog.  For technical support, consider that Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 ATS its last 12 off an upset loss, if playing an opponent off a win, if Oklahoma State wasn't favored by 4+ points in the current game.  And the Cowboys also fall into several of my favorite NCAA Bowl systems, with records of 136-69, 39-10, 16-4, and 59-22 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes and Kentucky Wildcats UNDER the total.  The Wildcats come into this game off back to back high-scoring wins, as they tallied 52 vs. Louisville, and 56 against New Mexico State.  The Over/Under line has been installed well below those offensive totals, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the over.  But consider that NCAA games have gone 'UNDER' 73% since 2013 if a team topped 50 points in each of its two previous games, and the line was 52 or less.  That bodes well for the UNDER on this Saturday afternoon.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into two of my best totals systems, with records of 58-33 and 114-66.  Take Kentucky + Iowa 'under' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over San Antonio.  The Spurs will once again be without their floor leader, Dejounte Murray, who didn't make the trip to Memphis.  And Lonnie Walker IV is also questionable to play tonight.  The Grizzlies have most of their key personnel available, and we'll lay the points with the home team, as Memphis is 31-13 ATS off a win when not favored by more than 8 points, if it was playing a foe off a point spread win.  Take the Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Michigan.  Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have had a tremendous turnaround season, but this will be a most difficult opponent for them to defeat.  Going into the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs were 12-0, and had given up just 6.9 ppg on defense.  Yes, Alabama scored 41 in an upset win, but it was an unusual game for Georgia since it knew it would be in these playoffs, even if it loss (while Alabama knew it had to win to advance).  This evening, Georgia will be fully motivated, and I expect it to shut down Michigan, just as it shut down all of its opponents in the regular season.  Georgia is a spectacular 39-15 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Michigan is 5-35 straight-up, and 14-26 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points.  And the SEC Conference has gone 25-8 SU and 23-10 ATS in the Bowls vs. the Big 10 Conference when the SEC team owned the better defense, and was not the underdog.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over Cleveland.  This is a revenge match for Atlanta, which was upset by Cleveland, 101-95, in the season's first meeting.  The Hawks are 7-2 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge from an upset defeat, while Cleveland is a poor 41-70 ATS as a favorite (or PK).  Take Atlanta.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over Sacramento.  This is the 2nd of back to back meetings in Sacramento between these two teams.  The Kings won Round 1 at the buzzer, 95-94, so we'll take the Mavericks in the rematch.  Dallas is 128-78 ATS off a loss vs. a foe off a win.  Take the Mavs.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide has been installed as a huge double-digit favorite in this game.  I generally don't like to lay points in bowl games, and especially not when the favored team doesn't own the better defense or the better ground attack.  The Bearcats have given up just 16.1 ppg on the season (against foes that average 26 ppg), and fall into a 73.0% ATS defensive underdog system of mine, as well as a 67.5% ATS system which plays on certain bowl teams with better rushing statistics.  The Bearcats are 14-2 ATS their last 16 when not laying 11+ points, including 5-0 ATS their last five as an underdog.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Central Michigan.  The number on this game has come down signficiantly from where it was earlier this morning, so that's all we need to pull the trigger on Jake Dickert's Cougars.  Washington State ended its season on a 6-2 SU run, and the only game it failed to cover was by a half-point (38-24 loss to Oregon, as a 13.5-point underdog).  Today, Wazzu is favored in the Sun Bowl vs. the Mid-American Conference's Chippewas, who won their final four games of the season.  The Cougars are a solid 21-9 ATS when the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 7 or less, while the Chippewas are a wallet-breaking 2-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes when the line was 7 or less.  That bodes well for Washington State.  As does the fact that the Pac-12 has gone 18-9 in Bowl games when priced from -4 to -6 points, while the Mid American Conference has burned money as an underdog in that price range, with a 3-8 ATS record.  Finally, the Cougars were much better this season away from home than Central Michigan.  Washington State was 4-1 ATS in its road games, and covered by an average of 16.0 ppg, while the Chips were 3-3 ATS and only covered by 3.0 ppg.  Lay the points with Washington State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS on the season, while Rutgers was 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.  The Scarlet Knights didn't qualify for a bowl game, given their losing record, but were tabbed by the Gator Bowl officials to replace Texas A&M, which pulled out due to COVID-19.  It's true that Rutgers comes into this game off back to back blowout losses to Penn State (28-0) and Maryland (40-16).  But we'll grab the points with the Scarlet Knights, as double-digit underdogs have gone 17-3 ATS in the post-season off a loss by 24+ points.  Even better:  Rutgers is 67-42 ATS away from home vs. non-conference foes, while Wake Forest is 4-18-1 ATS as a favorite of -5+ points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Vancouver Canucks.  No team was likely to be as upset at the temporary halt in the NHL schedule as the Vancouver Canucks.  That's because heading into last night's game against the Ducks (an overtime win), the Canucks had won eight of their last nine games, including their last six in a row from December 6 to December 16 when the games were halted.  The Kings made their return to action on Tuesday night and unfortunately they had to play the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights.  Los Angeles equaled Vegas in shot attempts (27), but was outscored, 6-3.  Still, prior to Tuesday's loss, the Kings had won two of their last three and those were against the Capitals and Panthers.  Los Angeles got yesterday off coming into this game, while the Canucks did not.  And Vancouver is 15-37 in its last 52 games when playing with zero days of rest.  The home team has also won four of the last five meetings.  Take the Kings.  As always, good luck....Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State/Wisconsin game to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams have solid defenses, and give up less than 21 points per game.  And Arizona State has now gone 'under' the total in six straight non-conference games (and has gone 'under' by an average of 14.25 ppg.  Wisconsin also has gone 'under' in 5 of 6 non-conference games vs. foes that give up less than 21 points per game.  And the Badgers are 8-1 'under' after being upset in its previous game.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over UAB.  The Blazers are 10-3 after blowing out Mississippi Valley State, 100-58, as a 37.5-point favorite.  We played on UAB in that game, but will switch gears and take the double-digits with Texas El Paso tonight.  UAB is a miserable 38-65-1 ATS off a win by more than 13 points, while UTEP is a strong 31-16 ATS away from home when getting more than 12 points.  Take the Miners + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Wizards fell at home to the Cavs, 116-101, earlier this month.  We'll take the Wizards in this revenge match, as Cleveland is a soft 39-67 ATS on the road when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by 10+ points earlier in the season.  And Washington is 19-7 ATS as a home favorite when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if the Wizards lost by 12+ points in that earlier match-up.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Fordham.  The Rams come into this Atlantic 10 opener off 4 straight ATS wins, but they're a wallet-busting 9-22-2 ATS off 3+ ATS wins, and 0-9-1 ATS when a road underdog, priced from +1.5 to +11.5, at La Salle.  Meanwhile, the Explorers were upset by Bucknell, 82-70, the last time they took the court.  But Atlantic 10 home teams are a super 7-0 ATS their last seven (and 36-10-1 ATS their last 47) conference games off a SU/ATS loss in which they were not getting more than 2 points.  Take La Salle minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over North Carolina.  Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were saddled with an exceptionally difficult schedule this season, and went 6-6.  Four of their six losses were against #3 Georgia, #19 Clemson, #23 Texas A&M, and #25 Kentucky.  And they also fell to SEC Conference foes Tennessee and Missouri, both of which made a Bowl game.  North Carolina, meanwhile, also played four teams ranked among the Top 25, and lost to three of the four:  #5 Notre Dame, #13 Pittsburgh, and #18 NC State.  The Tar Heels' lone win against a Top 25 team was a 58-55 victory vs. Wake Forest.  But the common thread among North Carolina's games vs. top-level teams was that it gave up a ton of points.  UNC surrendered 44 to Notre Dame, 55 to Wake Forest, 30 to Pittsburgh and 34 to NC State.  For the season, North Carolina went just 5-7 ATS, and gave up 31.5 ppg, yet it's favored by double-digits vs. South Carolina.  I'm generally not a fan of laying a lot of points in Bowl games, and even less so if a team has a swiss cheese defense, and has not shown a propensity to cover the number.  Indeed, NCAA Bowl teams have gone a woeful 0-10 ATS if they were favored by 7+ points, did not own a winning ATS record, and gave up 30+ points per game.  Grab the points with South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over Sacramento.  The Mavs will look for their 2nd straight win tonight, after upsetting Portland on Monday, while Sacramento will also look for its 2nd straight win, after defeating OKC last night.  Dallas is 34-15-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 16-5 ATS vs. a foe off a win, while Sacramento is 14-24 ATS at home off a win, when playing without rest.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Tennessee.  The Crimson Tide have dropped their last four to the point spread.  But SEC Conference teams, off 4+ ATS losses, have cashed 61% at home over the last 32 years vs. fellow SEC opponents off a SU win.  With Tennessee, indeed, off a win over Arizona, we'll lay the points with 'Bama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Charlotte.  The Pacers play this game with revenge from 2 losses at Charlotte in the first two meetings.  And Indy was favored in each of those defeats.  We'll lay the points with the Pacers, as revenge-minded NBA teams that were upset on the road in the previous two meetings, have gone 124-91 ATS in the regular season since 1990.  Take Indiana.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over Nashville.  Both of these teams haven't played for 10+ days, as the NHL paused its schedule due to COVID-19.  The Caps did lose their last game -- also here at home -- but are a super 6-0 this season off a home loss, and 24-9 their last 33 off a defeat at home.  And Washington is 9-4 when playing with 3+ days of rest, while the Predators are 4-8 with 3+ days of rest.  We'll take the homestanding Capitals tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  Georiga will conclude its non-conference schedule tonight with a home matchup against Gardner-Webb.  Georgia comes into this game off three straight ATS losses, including an upset at the hands of East Tennessee St. last Wednesday.  But the Dawgs are 35-20 ATS off back to back point spread defeats, including 12-4 ATS off an upset loss (and a perfect 6-0 ATS off an upset loss, if they off 3+ ATS defeats).  And Gardner-Webb is 1-6 ATS off a loss, when playing an opponent off an upset loss.  Lay the points with Georgia.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the William & Mary Tribe + the points over Hofstra.  The Pride come into this game off back to back upset wins against Arkansas and Monmouth.  Unfortunately, since 1990, Hofstra has covered just 35.7% as a favorite off back to back wins, when playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Meanwhile, the Tribe enter this Colonial Conference opener off a 22-point loss to Valparaiso.  And since 1990, NCAA underdogs of +13 (or more) points have cashed 64.1% in their first conference game, if they were off a loss by more than 18 points.  Take William & Mary.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Yale Bulldogs + the points over St. Mary's.  The Gaels come into this game off a blowout SU/ATS win over Missouri St., 75-58, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately, the Gaels are an awful 11-27 ATS as a home favorite of -4 (or more) points, if they are off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent lost its previous game, while Yale is a reliable 26-12 ATS away from home off back to back ATS defeats.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Lehigh Mountain Hawks + the points over Maryland.  The Terrapins have been installed as a big home favorite tonight, but they've had scant success in this role over the years.  Indeed, the Terrapins are a horrid 8-27 ATS when priced as a home favorite of -13 to -23 points, if they're playing an opponent which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for the Terps on Tuesday.  Nor does the fact that Lehigh's 13-4 ATS when getting more than 8 points away from home.  Take Lehigh as a big road dog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The T-Wolves upset the Celtics last night, 108-103, as a 5-point home dog, while the Knicks had Monday off.  We'll take the rested road favorite tonight, as Minnesota is 24-55 ATS as an unrested home underdog, and also 40-70 ATS at home off an upset win.  Lay the points with New York.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston.  LeBron James & Co. are in the midst of a 5-game losing streak.  But we will lay the points tonight, as road favorites off 4+ losses have cashed 12 straight times.  Take Los Angeles to rout the Rockets.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Cleveland.  The Pelicans had their 4-game win streak snapped on Sunday by the OKC Thunder.  They've been installed as a home underdog on Tuesday night, and we'll happily grab the points, as the Pelicans are 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 62-25-1 ATS their last 88) at home vs. .595 (or better) foes, when the Pels weren't favored by 3+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3:15 pm, on Tuesday, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals over Air Force.  The Falcons are 9-3, yet have been installed as an underdog vs. the 6-6 Cardinals, who were blown out by 31 points in their previous game by Kentucky (and failed to cover the spread by 34 points).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with Air Force, but consider that, at Game 10 forward, underdogs that own a W/L percentage of at least .250 greater than their opponent have covered just 28.1% when not playing at home.  Even worse:  winning teams off back to back wins (like Air Force), and not getting more than 3 points, have covered just 37% in the post-season vs. foes off a loss, that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by 14+ points.  Louisville also falls into 154-97, 38-9 and 135-67 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Memphis.  We played on Memphis last night, and easily won with a 25-point blowout of Sacramento.  Unfortunately, the Grizzlies now have to face the league's second-best team off a loss.  The Suns were upset by Golden State on Christmas, so we'll back them to bounce back tonight, on Monday.  Phoenix is a reliable 9-1 ATS its last 10 (and 24-7 ATS its last 31) off a loss, when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe off a double-digit win.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over San Antone.  We played on the Spurs last night, and got the $$$ when they blew out the Pistons.  That was Gregg Popovich's crew's fourth straight win and cover -- and fifth win in its last six games.  The first of those five wins was against this Utah team.  We played on the Spurs in that game, and they pulled off the upset, 128-126, as an 11.5-point road underdog.  That victory snapped Utah's 8-game win streak, so I expect the Jazz to come out strong tonight in this revenge match.  And Utah will have a nice advantage from the fact that it had Sunday off, while the Spurs had to play Detroit.  The Jazz are 13-3 ATS as a revenge-minded road favorite priced from -3 to -9.5 points.  Lay it.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Minnesota.  The Celts led virtually the entire way vs. Milwaukee on Christmas Day, before succumbing in the final 30 seconds, 117-113.  We'll lay the points tonight, as Boston is 41-23 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, if its foe was a losing team.  And Minny is a wallet-breaking 57-142 ATS as a non-division home dog of more than 4 points in the regular season, provided the T-Wolves weren't off an upset loss.  Take the Celtics.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Clips haven't had any good fortune on the injury front this season.  Los Angeles was already without its best player, Kawhi Leonard, who is recovering from ACL surgery, and Luke Kennard (ankle), but now will also be without Paul George, who tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.  And those three physical injuries are on top of the COVID-19 related absences of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson.  So, the Clippers will be a shell of themselves tonight when Denver comes into Crypto.com Arena.  The Nuggets will be looking to bounce back from a stunning loss to Charlotte -- a game Denver led by 17 points entering the 4th quarter.  Unfortunately, Charlotte destroyed Denver, 38-13 in that final quarter for the 8-point win.  Still, the Nuggets are a reliable 12-3 SU and 9-4-2 ATS on the road off an upset loss, while Los Angeles is a poor 4-11 ATS at home vs. a foe off a loss.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit.  Don't look now, but the under-the-radar Spurs are making a push to get into the Playoff picture.  The Spurs started slow, and had a 4-13 SU (and 8-9 ATS) record at Thanksgiving.  But San Antone has gone 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS since then.  The Spurs had, perhaps, their most impressive win of the season three nights ago when they went into Los Angeles and handed the Lakers a 138-110 defeat, which was the Lakers' biggest loss this season, as well as the Spurs' highest-scoring game.  And that was also the Spurs' second straight upset win, as they stunned the Clippers two nights before the Lakers.  This evening, they'll welcome a Pistons team going in the opposite direction.  Detroit only win in its last 17 games was against the Heat, on December 19.  But that game was at home.  On the road, the Pistons have now lost nine straight games.  And they're 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS their last 11 in the Alamo City.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are 22-12 ATS off back to back upset wins, including 11-2 ATS when laying 4+ points.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Washington.  The Wizards will be without G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this evening, and also should be without G Bradley Beal (23.3 ppg), who is listed as doubtful.  The Sixers also will be missing some players due to the COVID-19 protocols (Andre Drummond, Danny Green), but none as important as the Wizards' lost personnel.  We'll lay the points with Philly, as it will be looking to bounce back from an awful loss to the Hawks, as a 11-point favorite its last time on the court.  The good news is that rested road favorites have covered the spread 67% in the regular season since 1994 if they were off an upset loss as a favorite of 10+ points, and their opponent was off a win.  Take the 76ers minus the points.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings are ravaged by COVID-19-related player absences, but should get back Marvin Bagley and Louis King (as well as coach Alvin Gentry) this evening.  De'Aaron Fox is questionable, but hadn't cleared COVID-19 protocols as of Saturday night.  Memphis currently doesn't have such issues with its roster, and will be looking to snap a 3-game slide.  The Grizzlies' most recent loss was by 9 points, 113-104, to the league's #1 team, Golden State.  Memphis actually was in a great position to win, as it was tied at 102, before the Warriors ended the game on an 11-2 run.  That loss ended Memphis' 6-game road win streak, but this game should prove to be a great opportunity to start a new win streak on the road, as the Kings are a horrible 19-34 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a loss.  Even worse:  When the Kings have been installed as a home dog of 4+ points, they're 2-18 SU and 2-16-2 ATS!  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/Chicago game.  In its last game, the Seahawks managed to score just 10 points, in their 20-10 loss at Los Angeles.   But the Seahawks have gone OVER the total in 30 of 47 home games after scoring 10 or less points the previous week in a game which went under the total.  Additionally, this game falls into two totals systems of mine that are 96-52 and 38-16.  This will be a relatively-high scoring game.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  The Patriots have gone 'over' the total in each of their last four home games, while Buffalo is 10-4-2 OVER the total its last 16 road games.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on this Sunday afternoon, as the OVER falls into a 71-43 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, Buffalo was upset by New England in the season's first meeting, and scored just 10 points in that game.  And you would have to go back 55 games to find the last time Buffalo scored so few points in a home upset loss.  But NFL teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they scored 10 (or less) points tend to bounce back on offense in the season's next meeting, as 59% exceeded their offensive ppg average, and the OVER has cashed 66.1%.  Take the Bills and Patriots to go 'over' the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Detroit.  We played on the Lions last week as our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month, and easily got the $$$ as Detroit won outright, 30-12, as a 13-point home underdog.  But that was a perfect set-up for Detroit, as it was blown out by the Broncos the previous week.  And Detroit's now 5-0 ATS this season off a point spread defeat.  But it's also 55-83-4 ATS on the road off a SU win.  That doesn't bode well for the Lions on Sunday.  Nor does that fact that, at Game 7 forward, NFL teams with a .200 (or worse) W/L record have covered just 23.3% after beating the point spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  These two teams met here last season, and Detroit upset the Falcons, 23-22.  But the Lions are an awful 7-19 ATS as an underdog of less than 8 points, if they were off a win, and playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over the New York Jets.  Last week, the Jaguars lost at home to Houston, 30-16, which was their 6th straight loss and 5th straight ATS defeat.  We played on the OVER 39.5 in that game, so we were thrilled with the result.  This week, we'll take Jacksonville to finally break into the win column for the first time in seven weeks.  And our play is as much a play AGAINST New York, as it is a play ON Jacksonville.  Indeed, the Jets are a horrid 2-12 ATS their last 14 (and have covered just 65 of their last 186) at home vs. foe that didn't have a winning record!  And .333 (or worse) teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have gone 112-74 ATS.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, we cashed our NFL Game of the Month on the Colts, who snapped New England's 7-game win streak.  And we also cashed our NFL Underdog Shocker of the Month on the Lions against the Cardinals, when Detroit upset Arizona, as a 13-point underdog.  This week, we'll completely reverse course, and TAKE Arizona, and go AGAINST Indianapolis.  The Cardinals are a dominant 29-6-1 ATS at home when not laying 3+ points against a foe off a SU/ATS win, while Indy is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win vs. foes off back to back losses.  And teams (like Indianapolis) off wins over foes that were on a 6-game (or better) win streak have gone 34-50 ATS in their next game when not laying 3+ points. 

At 2:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Boston Celtics.  The Bucks lost at Boston just 12 days ago, so they're playing this game with revenge.  And since 1990, in Christmas Day games, NBA teams have gone 33-19 ATS at home when they've lost the previous meeting to their opponent.  That bodes well for Milwaukee this afternoon.  As does the fact that the Bucks are 27-12 ATS at home vs. winning foes when playing with rest, when the game was priced with a point spread less than 8 points.  Meanwhile, Boston has covered just 10 of 37 regular season games with point spreads less than 8 points, if Boston wasn't a losing team, and their opponent was rested.  Finally, Milwaukee also falls into several of my best revenge systems, with records of 156-82, 215-138 and 89-42 ATS.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, in the Camellia Bowl, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Georgia State.  Ball State punched its ticket for the post-season when it defeated Buffalo, 20-3, as a 6-point favorite, to end its season, and reach the .500 mark.  The Panthers were 7-5, and finished second in the Sun Belt's East division, and are in a Bowl game for the third straight year.  We'll fade Georgia State here, as Sun Belt teams are a woeful 1-14-1 ATS in the post-season when favored against foes off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Ball State has been terrific as an underdog off less than 20 points away from Muncie, IN, as it's 9-1 ATS.  And the Cardinals also fall into a 42-17 ATS statistical system of mine, as well as a 156-97-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain bowl underdogs of more than 3 points. 

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Oklahoma City Thunder.  Last night, the Thunder upended the Nuggets, 108-94, as a 6.5-point home underdog.  And that was OKC's third straight win, as it also avenged its 73-point loss to Memphis with a 102-99 victory on Monday, and defeated the Clippers, 104-103, on Saturday.  But off those three triumphs, we'll fade the Thunder in the Valley of the Sun tonight.  Phoenix is a super 33-18 ATS at home vs. foes off three SU/ATS wins, including 12-3 ATS if its opponent was unrested.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Orlando.  After losing 7 straight, and 14 of 15, the Magic have now won back to back games.  Last night, they went into Atlanta, and upset the Hawks, 104-98.  And that followed a 7-point win against Brooklyn, on Saturday.  Tonight, Orlando will host a Pelicans squad which has won three straight, including a 14-point home win over Portland.  I love to go against bad teams off wins, and the Magic certainly are that.  They've only won seven games all season, and have won back to back games just once, and have covered three straight games just twice.  We'll lay the points with New Orleans tonight, as Orlando is a poor 6-15 ATS off a point spread win, and it's 0-15 straight-up, and 2-13 ATS as an unrested underdog off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take New Orleans minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, on Thursday afternoon, in the Frisco Football Classic, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over North Texas.  The Mean Green stunned the then-undefeated Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners, 45-23, as an 8.5-point home underdog in their final regular season game.  But off that upset win over the 11-0 Roadrunners, we'll fade North Texas in this Bowl game.  Indeed, at Game 9 forward, teams off wins over undefeated teams have covered just 1 of their last 14.  That bodes well for Miami-Ohio in this game.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs playing away from home, priced from +2 to +10.5 in the post-season, have covered just 20 of 65 games.  Lay the points with Miami-Ohio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Clips were blown out at home by San Antone, 116-92, as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday.  But off that horrible loss, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles in Sacramento tonight.  Indeed, the Clippers are 57-35 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 28-12 ATS on the road.  Even better:  it plays this game with revenge from two losses to the Kings earlier this season.  And L.A. is a solid 64% in the regular season since 1990, if it owned a winning record, and was playing with double-revenge from two losses to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State.  These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour from one another.  And this will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The first go-round was won by the Trailblazers, 83-76, as a 10.5-point home underdog, on November 12.  We'll lay the points with the Thunderbirds in this re-match, as Southern Utah falls into a 66% ATS revenge system of mine.  And Southern Utah is also 4-0 ATS with revenge against a non-conference foe.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.