At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  After dropping the first two games of this series, the Clippers cannot afford to go down three-games-to-none.  Los Angeles was in a similar spot in its last series -- vs. Dallas -- and rebounded from a 2-0 deficit to win that series in seven games.  While Utah is no doubt a much more difficult foe than the Mavericks, the Clippers will be able to draw inspiration from that Mavericks series, and I believe that will serve them well in this Game 3.  One fact stands out about the Jazz:  they are dominating at home this season, as they're 35-6 SU, 27-14 ATS, and covering the point spread by an average of 4.07 ppg.  But they're actually failing to cover the spread by 0.35 ppg on the road!  That doesn't bode well for Utah tonight.  Nor does the fact that .610 (or better) NBA favorites of -3+ points, down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have covered 60% over the past 31 seasons.  Finally, since Kawhi Leonard joined the Clippers, they're a solid 31-18 ATS as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss, including 7-1 ATS vs. .625 (or better) opponents.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Utah tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs.  How does a starting pitcher lead the league in walks with 37 in 54 2/3 innings -- an absurd walk rate of 6.1 -- and still log a winning record with a very nice 2.63 ERA in his 11 starts.  The Cardinals likely don't know how RHP John Gant is doing it anymore than we do and they likely don't care too much as long as he can continue to be successful.  Gant's somewhat mysterious season continues tonight as he gets his 12th start and it will come against his team's dvision rival, Chicago, at Wrigley Field.  Here is the other strange thing about Gant.  As solid as his overall ERA has been this year, it's completely off the charts when he pitches on the road.  In six starts away from St. Louis, Gant is 2-1 with a sparkling 0.90 ERA in 30 innings.  Moreover, in 13 previous games vs. the Cubs -- three starts -- Gant is 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA in just under 24 innings.  Finally, despite their loss on Friday, the Cards are still 8-3 in the last 11 games here on the North Side.  Take St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets.  It's hard to believe that a pitcher with a 2.33 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.85 K:BB ratio and no-hitter to his credit could be considered as having a hard-luck season.  But that's pretty much how you would have to classify the Padres' Joe Musgrove.  The reason for the hard-luck label is the 28-year-old's 4-5 record in 12 games (11 starts).  Obviously, with the kind of numbers he has and the kind of team he has around him, Musgrove should have a much better record than the one he's currently sporting.  He has revenge on his mind today, as in his last start, Musgrove and the Padres were shut out by the Mets, 4-0, on June 5 in his home ballpark.  Musgrove hopes to do better in his first career start at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.  Musgrove has actually been much more effective on the road this season.  In six games (five starts) away from San Diego, Musgrove has logged a 1.76 ERA and 0.69 WHIP (compared to a 2.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in six starts at Petco Park).  Take the Padres.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  Two starters who used to face off over in the National League East Division will do so again this afternoon -- but as members of AL East teams.  Boston's Nick Pivetta and Toronto's Steven Matz came over from the Phillies and Mets, respectively, and they will go to the mound for their new teams in this critical game.  You could certainly argue that Pivetta and his 6-1 record and 3.78 ERA has had the better season so far, and few would disagree with you.  But despite his higher ERA (4.50), Matz has managed a winning record and has had to pitch his home games in what are basically minor league parks (Buffalo, Dunedin).  And Toronto's two home ballparks this season rank (along with Coors Field) among the three highest in terms of projected runs scored.  This is reflected in the veteran southpaw's poor home numbers (1-2 with a 5.76 ER and 1.92 WHIP in five starts) vs. his superior ones on the road (5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.03 WHIP).  Toronto is also 13-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 daytime games.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns.  The Suns swept the first two games of this series to take a 2-0 lead.  But those two games were in Phoenix, where the Suns have gone 31-10 SU, 27-14 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 4.02 ppg.  On the road, Phoenix has been less successful, as it's failed to cover the spread by an average of 0.5 ppg.  Denver, meanwhile, covers the spread at home by an average of 1.34 ppg.  We'll take the Nuggets in this Game 3, as they've been terrific at home off back to back losses by more than 10 points, and especially when priced from +1.5 to -4.5 points, as they're 19-3 ATS their last 22.  Even better:  Denver lost the first two games 122-105 and 123-98.  But NBA teams off back to back Playoff losses that gave up more than 120 points in each game, have cashed 64% since 1990.  This is a virtual 'must-win' game for Mike Malone's men.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. Bailey Ober will now get the start for Minnesota, and Ober has not impressed in his young career, thus far. He's made two starts this season, and has given up 5 runs in 8 innings (5.62 ERA), with a 1.37 WHIP. Ober will face the Astros, who upset the Twins in last year's playoffs. Houston will hand the ball to RHP Jose Urquidy, who also stumbled in his last start (six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Toronto). But Houston won each of Urquidy's five starts prior to that outing. And Urquidy's career ERA vs. Minnesota is 2.08, with a WHIP of 0.92. Even better: the Astros have scored 7, 8, and 8 runs in each of their last three games. And they're 32-8 on the road after scoring 7+ runs in each of their three previous games. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Utah.  The Jazz drew first blood in this series with a three-point win in Game 1.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take the points with the underdog Clippers.  It's true that the Jazz rolled to the best record in the league this year, and are 34-6 at home.  But consider that #1 seeds are a poor 58-91 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs when they lead in a series against a .600 (or better) opponent.  Even better:  the Clippers are 23-10 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, including 11-1 ATS if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 4 points or less.  And Los Angeles is an awesome 39-14 ATS off exactly one loss.  Take L.A. + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  The Bucks were embarrassed in Game 2, as they were blown out, 125-86, by Brooklyn.  But that 39-point defeat sets up our play tonight, as .250 (or better) teams have gone 35-5 SU and 28-11-1 ATS at home off a blowout loss by 39+ points, if they were favored by more than 2 points in their current game (and a perfect 6-0 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .600).  Moreover, Milwaukee is 44-17-1 ATS at home off back-to-back losses.  Take Milwaukee minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Nuggets dropped Game 1, 122-105, as a 6-point underdog.  But Mike Malone's men have been exceptional in the Playoffs, when trailing in a series, as they're 10-5 SU and 12-2-1 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game.  That bodes well for Denver tonight.  As does the fact that .700 (or better) teams are a poor 35% ATS at home in the Playoffs since 1991 when not favored by 8+ points, if they won their previous game in the series by more than 11 points.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cleveland Indians.  After an 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles of all teams on Sunday, Cleveland had a day off and then took out its frustration in St. Louis on the Cardinals last night.  But that was a pitching mis-match with Shane Bieber going up against Carlos Martinez who might not be long for the rotation if he can't turn things around soon.  Tonight it will be the ageless wonder -- RHP Adam Wainwright -- going for the Cards.  Just shy of his 40th birthday, Wainwright can still go out and give his team six-plus quality innings and he certainly doesn't mind the occasional inter-league match-up.  In 42 games vs. the AL (36 starts), Wainwright is 16-12 with a 3.73 ERA in 242 innings.  In two previous games vs. the Tribe (one start), Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA with 12 Ks and three walks in 11 innings.  Despite their win on Tuesday, the Indians are still 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games.  The Cards are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a favorite.  Take St. Louis.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Kawhi Leonard & Co. were extended to seven games by the Dallas Mavericks, while Utah had a much easier time of it vs. the Memphis Grizzlies.  Unfortunately for the Clippers, teams off home SU/ATS wins in a Game 7 have covered just 35% since 1991 when they've played on the road in Game 1 of the following series, provided their opponent won its previous series in less than 7 games.  That doesn't bode well for Los Angeles tonight.  Nor does the fact that the Jazz have won the last five meetings here in Salt Lake City (4-1 ATS), and are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, overall.  The Jazz were the #1 home point spread team in the league this season, as they covered the spread at home by 4.56 ppg.  The Clippers, meanwhile, had a road point spread differential of just 0.11 this season.  Utah's an awesome 33-4 SU and 25-12 ATS at home its last 37, while the Clippers are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs after winning their two previous games.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Hawks drew first blood on Sunday, with a 128-124 upset win over the Sixers.  But off that defeat, we'll play on the 76ers in Game 2 tonight.  Indeed, that 128 points was the most points the Sixers have given up in a loss, with Joel Embiid in the lineup, this season.  The good news, however, is that NBA teams that give up 125+ points in an upset playoff defeat are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last four playoff seasons, and 67% ATS the past 31 years.  Take Philadelphia to bounce back strong on Tuesday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox.  Garrett Richards will toe the rubber for Boston this evening, and he's had ZERO success in his career vs. New York.  In six starts vs. the Pinstripes, Richards is 0-5 (his teams are 0-6), with an ERA of 8.76, and a WHIP of 1.78.  It doesn't get much uglier than that!  In contrast, Domingo German has made five starts vs. Boston, and his teams are 4-1.  Even better:  at home, in his career, German's teams are 17-5, including a perfect 8-0 when priced from -125 to -175.  And his teams have won 17 of his last 21 nighttime starts.  Meanwhile, Richards teams are 3-17 on the road in his starts, when priced from +125 to +175.  Take the Yankees to blow out Boston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the New York Mets.  Chris Paddack will get the start for the homestanding Padres this afternoon.  At home, Paddack has a 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, and the Padres are 6-1 at home when favored by 150 or less with him on the mound.  That bodes well for San Diego today.  As does the fact that the Mets are a horrible 19-37 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced at +150 or less, while Marcus Stroman's teams are 12-26 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) in his career, when priced as the underdog.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Clippers/Dallas Mavericks game.  The last three games in this series have gone 'under' the total, and have done so by wide margins (32.5, 12.5 and 16 points).  We played on the 'under' in Game 6, and that's the way we will look again in this Game 7.  Indeed, eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER.  And the Mavericks are now 23-6 UNDER their last 29 games when they've been installed as the underdog.  Finally, NBA games have gone UNDER 72.5% if the season's previous three meetings went under, in the aggregate, by 59+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati.  The Cards have dropped four straight games heading into this contest.  They'll hand the ball to RHP John Gant, who comes into this game off back to back scoreless outings -- against two of baseball's best clubs.  On June 1, Gant held the mighty Dodgers to 0 runs over six innings, in a 3-2 win.  And back on May 26, he threw five scoreless innings at the White Sox, in a 4-0 victory.  Gant and the Cardinals are back home for this one, and Cincy is a poor 26-49 (minus 23 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125.  And the Reds are also 40-63 (minus 29 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs.  Take St. Louis.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Detroit.  Nobody is going to pick the Tigers to win the World Series -- or even a Division Title -- anytime soon, but this club has played surprisingly well lately.  With series against the Yankees, Brewers, and White Sox, Detroit has gone 5-3.  Unfortunately, the Tigers face a very talented young starter in RH Dylan Cease this afternoon.  Admittedly, Cease still walks too many batters -- although he's done slightly better in that category in 2021 -- but when he's on, he can be very good.  The 25-year-old also has one of the strongest home/road biases in baseball this season.  In six starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 2-0 with an amazing 1.99 ERA in just under 32 innings.  But in five road starts, he is 1-2 with 6.26 ERA in 23 innings.  He also had his best start this season against the Tigers.  On April 29 in the second game of a double-header, Cease pitched a seven inning complete game shutout right here at home.  Detroit is 7-24 in the last 31 meetings and 5-17 in the last 22 meetings here.  Take the White Sox.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Our preseason pick to win this year's NBA championship was Milwaukee (at 13-2 odds), but it will be an uphill climb for the Bucks to do it, as they're seeded #3 in the Eastern conference.  Tonight, Milwaukee will have to go into Brooklyn to face a very tough Nets team which boasts three offensive superstars in Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden.  It's true that Milwaukee was impressive in its 4-game sweep over the Miami Heat.  But NBA teams off 4-0 Sweeps have covered just 36% over the last 31 years in Game 1 of their next series if they weren't laying 7+ points, and their opponent was NOT off a series sweep.  Even worse for Milwaukee:  Brooklyn is playing tonight's game with revenge from back-to-back losses to the Bucks last month.  And revenge-minded teams have gone 23-8 ATS (in the quarterfinal round, forward) at home in Game 1 of a series.  Finally, Milwaukee's been horrific away from home off 4+ wins, when facing a revenge-minded, rested opponent, as it's covered just 25.8% ATS since 1990, including 0-9 ATS since March 31, 2019.  Take Brooklyn minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Colorado Avalanche.  Our preseason pick to win this year's Stanley Cup was Colorado (at 7-1 odds), and the Avalanche have done nothing yet to dispel our belief that they will eventually be crowned the champs.  They've won their last 11 games, and also earned the Presidents' Trophy for garnering the most points in the regular season.  But Vegas tied Colorado for points in the regular season (it lost on the tie-breaker), and actually outplayed the Avs in Game 2, though it lost in overtime, 3-2, on a power play goal by Mikko Rantenen.  Indeed, the Golden Knights struck the goal post five times on shots that got by Philipp Grubauer (and outshot the Avs, 41-25), so they were enormously unlucky on Wednesday night.  The good news for Vegas is that it will be back home at T-Mobile Arena on Friday, where it went 21-5-2 this season.  Even better:  Vegas is 48-26 (+19.4 games on the moneyline) off a road loss, and 63-40 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Knights.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the under in the Dallas/Los Angeles game.  The Clippers were upset by the Mavericks, 105-100, as a 7.5-point home favorite on Wednesday, which sets up this 'do-or-die' game for Tyronn Lue's men tonight.  Los Angeles has now gone 'under' in 10 of its last 13 games off a straight-up loss, while Dallas is 17-11 'under' vs. opponents off a loss.  Even better:  these two teams come into tonight's game off two very low-scoring contests (105-100, 106-81) that went under the total by 32.5 and 12.5 points, respectively.  And that sets up tonight's play, as competitively-priced playoff games, with point spreads of 3 (or less) points, have gone 'under' 60.9% since 1991, if the two teams also went under in their two previous games.  We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight in Game 6.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox.  We're two months into the baseball season, but the Yankees and Red Sox have yet to play a game against each other.  All that changes tonight when Boston travels to the Bronx to face their rival.  And the Red Sox have had little success vs. the Yankees of late, as they've lost their last 11 games here, at Yankee Stadium.  We'll take New York tonight to extend that streak to 12 games, as they'll hand the ball to RHP Michael King.  King has made two appearances in his career vs. the BoSox, and he's 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA.  Even better:  the Yankees are a dominant 58-22 (+21 games on the moneyline) at home if they lost their previous game.  And they're 41-18 at home when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less).  Take the Yankees.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Phoenix/Los Angeles game.  These two teams have played four of their five games in this 1st round series UNDER the total.  And the last three have gone 'under' by wide margins (9.5, 17.5 and 7.0 points).  That bodes well for another low-scoring game on Thursday, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' 67% since 1991 after the three previous games went 'under' by at least 5.0 ppg.  Take Game 6 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the NY Mets.  Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for San Diego tonight, and the Padres have won 10 of his 11 starts in 2021, including the last seven in a row.  I look for this streak to remain intact tonight, as the Mets are a dreadful 8-25 as road underdogs, priced from +125 to +175.  Even better:  Darvish's teams are 16-1 at home vs. opponents with below average power that average 0.9 (or less) home runs per game (the Mets have hit just 43 HRs in 48 games).  And his ERA in his seven nighttime starts this season is a microscopic 1.37.  Take San Diego.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs.  At first blush, the Giants' Anthony DeSclafani's 4-2 record and 3.56 ERA in 11 starts are very solid.  But the former Cincinnati Reds RHP's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that DeSclafani allowed 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings two starts ago to the Dodgers.  In fact, the 31-year-old's last two starts have come against Los Angeles leading into this match-up with the Cubs.  DeSclafani has faced the Cubs on 12 previous occasions from his time in the NL Central and he has a winning record (4-3) against them with a 3.91 ERA in 69 innings.  DeSclafani now pitches for the Giants and has the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly home venue in Oracle Park.  At 32-23, the Cubs have had a very successful campaign so far in 2021 but they are 2-6 in the last eight meetings here in San Francisco.  The Giants are a reliable 14-5 (+12 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games immediately following a loss.  Take San Francisco.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  The Blazers lost Game 5 at Denver, in double-overtime, to fall behind in this series, three-games-to-two.  But we'll look for the Blazers to level this series at three games apiece tonight, as teams favored by more than 4 points, and facing elimination in a first round series, have cashed 68% since 2001, including 88% vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .620.  Additionally, Denver is 39-68 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Heading into the 2019 season, expectations for LHP Brett Anderson were not very high to say the least.  The then-30-year-old had only managed two seasons -- out of 10 up to that point -- in which he made it through uninjured and the last one was 2015.  But 2019 seemed to do the trick as Anderson started 31 games for the A's, winning 13 times with a nice 3.89 ERA.  Ironically, he was cut loose at the end of that season and the Brewers picked him up.  And so far, so good, as Anderson has only made two short trips to the IL but otherwise has not missed a beat in 2020 or so far this season.  In eight starts in 2021, Anderson is 2-3 with a 4.18 ERA -- not spectacular numbers, but Milwaukee is being very cautious with him for good reason.  Here at Miller Park, Anderson has made eight career starts with a 3-2 record and 3.83 ERA in 40 innings.  The D-Backs are also 2-9 in the last 11 meetings with the Crew and 1-7 in the last eight in Milwaukee.  Take the Brewers.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers.  The road team has gone 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series (and is 8-1 the last nine meetings), and we'll back the road team, Dallas, tonight.  The Mavericks are a solid 118-74 off a loss vs. an opponent off a win.  And underdogs have cashed 67.6% since 1991 off a 22-point (or worse) playoff defeat, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Dallas.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies game to go under the total.  The Grizzlies have lost their last three games to face elimination tonight.  We'll look for a relatively-low scoring game, as 1st Round elimination games have gone 'under' the total 57% since 1991 if the team facing elimination was not getting more than 10 points.  And Utah has gone 'under' 62-44 at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis.  One of my favorite pitchers, Walker Buehler, will take the mound for Los Angeles tonight.  We played against Buehler in his last start, and got the $$$ with the San Francisco Giants as a +171 underdog.  But we'll reverse course, and take Buehler tonight, as he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 2.37 ERA and a stellar 0.84 WHIP.  Moreover, the Dodgers are an awesome 58-13  (+23.4 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced at -200 (or more), including 16-3 (+8 games on the moneyline) with Buehler on the hill.  That bodes well for the Dodgers in this game. As does the fact that St. Louis' Carlos Martinez has an awful ERA of 5.29 over his last three starts, while Buehler's ERA over his last three games is 0.90.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Montreal Canadiens.  Montreal surprised heavily favored Toronto, coming back from a 3-1 games deficit to advance to the second round.  Now the Habs will try to do the same to the upstart Jets, who also pulled off an upset of their own (over the Oilers) in their first round series.  But this may be more difficult than beating Toronto, whose offense went to sleep in the seven-game series.  For one thing, the Jets have had the Habs number lately, taking seven of the last 10 meetings.  Second, Winnipeg has had 10 days to rest, recover and prepare for this game while the Habs played two days ago and are still licking their wounds from that tough series.  Including their first round four-game sweep of Edmonton, the Jets have now won six straight coming in so you could say they are peaking at just the right time. Montreal has won three straight but it is just 1-13 (-17 games on the moneyline) in its last 14 following a three-game win streak.  And it's also a poor 24-37 (minus 19.9 games on the moneyline) off a win by 2+ goals.  Take Winnipeg.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks swept the Hawks, 3-games-to-none, in the regular season, but have dropped the last two games (by 11 and 17 points) to fall behind in this series, 3-games-to-1.  So, if the Knicks can't win tonight, they'll be ousted from the playoffs.  We'll lay the points, as favorites off back to back double-digit losses, have gone 63% ATS at home in the playoffs since 1991.  Take New York.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  This series has the makings of a great one, as both clubs rightfully have championship hopes.  The Lightning drew first blood with a Game 1 victory, 2-1, behind 37 saves from Andrei Vasilevskiy.  We'll take the homestanding Hurricanes to bounce back in Game 2, as they are 23-9 here, in Raleigh, this season, including 6-2 if they lost their previous home game.  And the Hurricanes are also 16-8 when playing with revenge.  The Lightning, meanwhile, are an unprofitable 17-14 (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) on the road this season, and are 8-8 (minus 6.7 games on the moneyline) off a road win.  The revenge-minded team has won each of the last four meetings in this series, and we look for Carolina to extend that streak to five games.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Memphis/Utah game.  The Grizzlies find themselves in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they're down 2-games-to-1 after dropping Games 2 + 3 by scores of 141-129 and 121-111.  Clearly, the Grizzlies will need to shore up things on the defensive end if they hope to get back into this series with an upset win tonight.  I look for a much better defensive effort by the home team, and a lower-scoring game tonight, on Monday.  Indeed, NBA playoff games have gone under the total 71% of the time since 1990 if a team was off back to back losses, in which it gave up more than 120 points.  And the Grizzlies have also gone 'under' 33-13-1 their last 47 after giving up 120+ points in their previous game.  Take the 'under' tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Vegas Golden Knights.  Here is the match-up that almost everyone predicted and many want to see.  The Avs and Knights finished the regular season with identical point totals (82) but it was Colorado's final win over Vegas on May 10 which gave it a chance to lock up the division title and Presidents Trophy provided it won its final two regular season games vs. the Kings (which the Avs did, easily).  And just to show that their blowout wins at the end of the regular season (6-0 and 5-1) were not a fluke, the Avs then proceeded to dismantle a pretty good Blues team in the first round.  In its four game sweep of St. Louis, Colorado out-scored the Blues by an embarrassing 20-7.  No such easy time for the Knights, however, as they had to go to seven games to put away a very good Minnesota Wild club.  So, Colorado is fresh and Vegas is anything but, after its grueling series which ended less than 48 hours ago with a 6-2 win in Game 7.  The Avs are 11-0 at home in their last 11 after two straight wins by two or more goals, while the Knights are a poor 11-15 off a win by more than three goals.  I predicted in the preseason that the Avalanche (at 7-1 odds) would win the Stanley Cup (last year, I correctly forecast the Lightning would win), and there's absolutely no reason to back off now, given the Avalanche's 9-game win streak.  Take Colorado.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Angels.  After coming out of nowhere to go 3-3 with a 3.09 ERA in his first six starts, southpaw Cole Irvin of the Oakland A's has cooled off over his next four starts.  He's been hit pretty hard in his last two, which both came against fellow AL West teams, so Irvin is hoping that the third time in a row is a charm as he faces the Angels for the first time in his career.  The good news for the 27-year-old today is that the Halos are hitting just .239 against left-handed pitching this season and they are also without Mike Trout as he recovers from a lower leg injury.  You might think that Irvin has enjoyed the confines of his pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland but that hasn't been the case this season.  In six starts at the Coliseum, Irvin has a 4.50 ERA while in four starts elsewhere his ERA is almost a run-and-a-half lower at 3.09.  Veteran southpaw Jose Quintana gets the start for the Angels and the A's are 60-24 (+31 games on the moneyline) in their last 84 games vs. LH starters.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Phoenix finds itself in a 2-1 series hole after dropping Games 2 + 3 to the Lakers by scores of 109-102 and 109-95.  The good news for Phoenix is that NBA teams down 2-games-to-1 have gone 16-4 ATS if they lost Game 3 by 14+ points, including 8-0 ATS if their win percentage was not worse than their opponent's.  The Suns are 6-2 ATS their last eight off back to back point spread defeats.  And NBA road underdogs are 73-54 ATS in the playoffs off two ATS losses if they owned a better W/L percentage than their opponent.  Take the Suns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the San Diego Padres.  Two former AL Cy Young winners meet this afternoon in Houston in the third and final game of this inter-league series.  The Pads swept the Astros in three games last season, and will go for another 3-0 sweep today.   But it won't be easy, given the pitching match-up.  Neither the Padres' Blake Snell nor the Astros' Zack Greinke will win a Cy Young this season, but both pitchers can still throw a gem when called upon.  Snell has been a bit disappointing, though, in his first season in San Diego, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 44 innings, including a 7.85 ERA and 2.01 WHIP on the road.  Meanwhile, Greinke has owned the Padres in his career, with a 13-3 record, 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 26 starts.  And his teams are 161-89 (+44.7 games on the moneyline) in his home career starts, while Snell's teams are 8-16 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) in his last 24 road starts.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie

At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between Memphis and Utah.  The Jazz exploded for 141 points on Wednesday, as they won SU/ATS as a 10-point home favorite, 141-129.  But off that high-scoring game, we'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday.  Indeed, NBA teams off 138+ point games have gone 'under' 90-67 since 1991 when the O/U line was 224+ points.  Moreover, the Grizzlies have gone 'under' in 34 of their last 48 home games, and 32-14-2 'under' off a loss by more than 8 points.  Meanwhile, the Jazz are 33-16-1 'under' in their road playoff games off a SU win.  Take the Grizzlies/Jazz Game 3 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Detroit Tigers.  The Tigers pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season on Friday when they beat the Yankees and their star pitcher, Gerrit Cole.  This afternoon they go from their All Star $324 Million Man on the mound to little known 22-year-old RH Deivi Garcia.  The young Dominican may one day be a star like Cole, but for now he is just trying to make a name for himself on the big stage.  Garcia has just seven MLB starts under his belt, and this year he's posted an uninspiring 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his lone start.  But Garcia has one of the best lineups in the league backing him up and some pretty good mentors in the clubhouse as well, so he has a great shot at getting his first win of 2021 this afternoon.  Despite their surprising loss here last night, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Tigers and 11-5 in the last 16 here at Comerica Park.  New York is also 9-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. AL Central Opponents.  Take the Yankees to bounce back on Saturday afternoon.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won here in Game 3, but are a miserable 43-69 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 1-10 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. an opponent off back to back SU/ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for Denver this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that #3-seeded teams are a poor 32-56 ATS off an upset playoff win, if they don't trail in the series.  Take Portland minus the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/Denver game.  The Nuggets have won the past two games by scores of 128-109 and 120-115.  But off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring affair this afternoon, as teams have gone 'under' the total 65.0% since 1991 if they scored more than 116 in back to back playoff games.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Miami is just one loss away from its summer vacation, so this is a 'must win' game for Erik Spoelstra's men.  I believe it will rise to the occasion, as Miami is 53-25 ATS off back to back losses, when matched up against an opponent off a straight up win.  Additionally, in the first 3 rounds of the NBA playoffs, home underdogs of less than 6 points have cashed 64.9% since 1991 off a SU/ATS home playoff loss.  Take Miami.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  To say Giants RHP Anthony DeSclafani might want to redeem himself tonight would be a huge understatement.  After all, in his last start -- also against these Dodgers -- DeSclafani gave up a career-high 10 runs in 2 2-3 innings.  That start was his shortest of the year, and it raised his ERA from 2.03 to 3.54.  I look for DeSclafani to bounce back tonight, as his teams are 9-6 (+9.2 games on the moneyline) when installed as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +200.  And his ERA in his 7 nighttime starts this season is 1.87, with a 0.80 WHIP.  Take the Giants as a big underdog on Friday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  We played on Los Angeles in Game 2, and were (obviously) disappointed with the result, as the Mavericks upset L.A. for the 2nd straight game, 127-121, as a 7-point underdog.  But that upset win has triggered a powerful 144-67 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upsets that are not favored by 2+ points in their current game.  Even worse for the Mavericks:  they're 2-13 ATS their last 15, and 33-66-1 ATS their last 100, off back to back underdog ATS wins when they're not getting 6+ points in their current game.  And the Clippers are 22-8 ATS on the road off a loss.  Finally, NBA favorites off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and down exactly two games in a Playoff series (i.e., 0-2 or 1-3), are 60-39-3 ATS since 1991.  Lay the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Portland Trail Blazers game.  These two teams come into tonight's game off back to back high-scoring affairs.  Portland won Game 1, 123-109, while Denver took Game 2, 128-109.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as NBA playoff games have gone 'under' the total 60% of the time since 1991 after back to back games that totaled 230+ points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into several of my favorite Totals systems that are 92-58, 177-131, and 136-101 since 1991.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Baltimore Orioles.  Through his first six starts of the season, young RHP Dylan Cease looked like he might be the second coming of Lucas Giolito.  The 25-year-old went 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA, with 22 hits allowed, 40 strikeouts and 15 walks in just over 30 innings.  Those are some serious numbers.  But Cease hasn't been able to maintain it through his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA, while the 2.66 K:BB ratio he enjoyed in those first six morphed into 1.78 (16 strikeouts with nine walks).  Perhaps a start against the last place Orioles, who are currently sitting at 17-32 will be just the thing to get Cease out of his funk.  And the fact that the Baltimore lineup has never faced the young fireballer probably doesn't hurt either.  This game is in his home park -- Guaranteed Rate Field -- and Cease is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts there so far this season (vs. 1-1 and 4.58 in four starts elsewhere).  The Sox are also a perfect 5-0 in Cease's last five starts vs. teams with a losing record.  Take Chicago.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks made a statement in Games 1 + 2, as they were able to win a nail-biter (109-107) as well as a blowout (132-98).  Certainly, the Bucks are out to avenge last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Heat.  But before we dismiss the Heat entirely, we must note that the first two games were at Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks have gone 28-10 this season.  It's been a completely different story outside of Wisconsin, as Milwaukee is a pedestrian 20-16 on the road this year (and a wallet-breaking 14-22 ATS).  We'll take Miami to bounce back in Game 3, as the Heat are an awesome 53-24-3 ATS off back to back losses, when playing an opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  NBA underdogs of less than 6 points, off defeats by more than 32 points, have cashed 88% in the Playoffs since 1991.  Take Miami.  Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:05 pm, in Game 2 of the Double-Header, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Yankees will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery this evening.  And the southpaw comes into this game off the best start of his career.  In that game, last Friday vs. the White Sox, Montgomery held the Pale Hose hitters to just four hits over seven innings.  And he struck out 11, while walking none in a 2-1 victory.  The fact that this game is at home under the lights should also benefit him, as his home ERA is 2.52 this season, while his ERA in nighttime starts is 2.12.  The Yankees have been dominant as a favorite, priced at -150 or less, as they're 32-13 their last 45.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis.  The Grizzlies struck first in this series with a 112-109 upset win at Salt Lake City, on Sunday night.  And that followed an upset post-season win at Golden State in the play-in round.  But we'll take Utah to rebound in Game 2 of this series.  Indeed, the Jazz are at their best as a favorite when coming off a home loss, and playing with revenge, as they're 33-14 ATS.  Even better:  #8-seeded underdogs are a nasty 3-18-1 ATS off a playoff win (and back to back wins, overall).  And underdogs off back to back upset post-season wins are a wallet-breaking 17-34-2 ATS.  Take the Jazz minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres.  One thing that's generally true about control pitchers is that when their control starts to go, their walk rate goes up, the K rate goes down, and bad things will happen as a result.  The latest case in point might be the Padres' Chris Paddack.  Last season we saw Paddack maintain that control with a walk rate that was under 2.0 per nine IP (12 total walks in 59 innings).  But this season, Paddack has already allowed 11 free passes in just 36 1/3 innings, resulting in that rate climbing to 2.7.  And the strikeout rate has gone down as a result.  Paddack has just two wins in his eight starts and he has struggled to go very deep in games.  He's been the beneficiary of some incredible run support in his last three but that might come to an end tonight.  The Brewers will hand the ball to Eric Lauer, who will be facing his former team tonight.  Lauer has a nice 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP so far this season.  Despite the win on Tuesday, San Diego is just 1-5 in the last five meetings and 2-4 in the last six at Miller Park.  Take the Crew.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals have faded from their hot start to the season, but they are still a .500 club after last night's upset victory.  But getting above .500 tonight will be tough as KC must face the Rays again, and RHP Tyler Glasnow.  After posting a somewhat disappointing 4.08 ERA in the shortened 2020 campaign, Glasnow has turned things around this season, going 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts covering 62 innings.  With all of the openers that the Rays have been using lately, Glasnow is one of the few traditional starters they have left in the regular rotation and that's not likely to change.  Glasnow has a career record of 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 20 starts covering 106 2/3 innings here at Tropicana Field.  Despite their win last night, the Royals are just 5-14 in the last 19 meetings and 2-6 in the last eight here in St. Pete.  Take the Rays.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Atlanta.  Last night, Boston lost its second straight game, as Atlanta won, 3-1, behind veteran Charlie Morton.  Tonight, the Red Sox have the advantage on the mound, as the pitching match-up is Nick PIvetta vs. Drew Smyly.  Pivetta's teams are 9-0 in his home starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 (or less), while Atlanta's 2-7 this season in interleague games.  Take the Red Sox.

At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Seattle Mariners.  Oakland's rookie RHP James Kaprielian has been great so far this season.  In two starts, he's struck out 15 in just 10 2-3 innings, and allowed just 3 runs and 12 baserunners (2.53 ERA; 1.12 WHIP).  He'll match up against Seattle RHP Robert Dugger, who has a 4.15 ERA this season (but a 6.75 ERA in daytime action this season, and an 11.47 ERA in daytime action in his career).  The A's are 70-35 (+17 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, while Seattle is 46-74 its last 120 as a road underdog.  Take Oakland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks.  The Clippers lost Game 1 here, at home, on Saturday, 113-103, as a 6-point favorite.  But we'll take Kawhi Leonard & Co. to bounce back on Tuesday in Game #2.  Indeed, since 2020, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the league off a loss, as they're 53-17 SU and 46-24 ATS, including 12-1 ATS off a double-digit loss when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  Dallas is a dreadful 0-11 ATS in the Playoffs following a SU/ATS win as an underdog (or PK) when getting more than five points from a team which owns a better W/L percentage.  Finally, the Clippers fall into 158-90, 85-35, 83-35, 94-39 and 75-21 ATS Playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road.  But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog.  We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points.  Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  The A's Frankie Montas became a full-time starter in 2018 and after a successful campaign that season and the year after, it seemed as though the sky would be the limit for the then-26-year-old.  But the shortened 2020 season was pretty much a disaster for Montas.  In 11 starts covering 53 innings, the RHP went 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA and that's certainly not the results the A's wanted coming off of that productive 2019 season.  The good news now is that all of Montas' numbers this season are improved from last.  In nine starts covering 47 innings, Montas is 5-3 and he has a 3.46 K:BB ratio (45 strikeouts and 13 walks).  The 4.79 ERA that he's posted is far from ideal, but after a rough April (2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts), Montas has really made it count this month, going 3-1 with a sparkling 3.22 ERA in four starts covering just over 22 innings.  The A's are 13-2 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Montas' last 15 starts as a home favorite.  Take Oakland.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies are averaging 2.8 runs per game, and hitting .209 on the road.  So, perhaps it's no surprise they've won just two of their 19 games away from Colorado (including 0-7 when priced as an underdog of +150 or less, and 0-10 when the O/U line was less than 8 runs).  We'll play against the Rockies in the Big Apple tonight, as the pitching match-up will feature two southpaws:  Austin Gomber vs. David Peterson.  Gomber's road ERA also leaves a lot to be desired, as he's given up 24 runs (22 earned) in 31 innings (6.35 ERA).  The Rockies are 1-5 in his six road starts.  Peterson's been effective at home this season, as his ERA is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP.  And the Mets have won 6 of his 8 home starts, dating back to last season.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins.  Shane Bieber will start for the Indians this afternoon, and he brings a super 2.70 ERA in his home starts into this contest.  Even better:  Bieber will make this start with an extra day of rest, and his teams are 19-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his career when he's had an extra day or two of rest.  Meanwhile, Twins' righty, Kenta Maeda, has a horrid 6.75 road ERA, with a 1.58 WHIP.  And his ERA balloons to 6.23 in his daytime starts.  Dating back to last season, the Twins have lost seven of his last nine starts, including a 7-4 loss at Cleveland less than four weeks ago.  Take the Indians.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers.  In a three game series against the visiting Yankees, the Rangers were swept and out-scored 11-4 and they didn't plate a run in the final two games.  And on Wednesday, they were no-hit by former teammate Corey Kluber.  So last night the Rangers took out their frustrations on the Astros in the first of this three-game series.  Last season, Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. did something he hadn't been able to do in his first four seasons in the league.  The 27-year-old made 11 starts which -- in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign -- amounted to a full season of work.  None-the-less, the veteran wants to prove he can do it under normal conditions, which means 30 starts, and he is on track to do just that.  So far, in eight starts covering 46 2/3 innings, McCullers is 3-1 with a very nice 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has allowed just 28 hits with 52 strikeouts.  The Astros are also 7-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in McCullers last nine day starts.  Take Houston.

At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the New York Yankees.  This is a great match-up today -- at least on paper -- between the two of the top teams in the American League.  The White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Cease, who has a 2.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over eight starts.  And his ERA in his three daytime starts is 1.80.  Cease's mound opponent this afternoon will be Gerrit Cole, who has a 2.03 ERA on the season, with a superb 0.78 WHIP.  But Cole also had his worst outing of the season earlier this week at Texas, as he gave up five runs in five innings, in a 5-2 loss.  The only good news for Cole was that he got into the record books with his 61st straight strikeout without issuing a walk.  This afternoon, Cole will attempt to bounce back against Chicago.  But his career ERA vs. the Pale Hose is 6.00.  And Cole's teams are also 2-5 his last seven (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200.  Take the White Sox as a big underdog on Saturday.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins.  The Marlins return home after shutting out Philadelphia, 6-0, yesterday behind Sandy Alcantara, while New York had Thursday off following its road trip to Atlanta, where it won two of the three games.  The pitching matchup tonight will feature veteran Marcus Stroman for New York, while rookie RHP Jordan Holloway will toe the rubber for the Marlins.  And although Holloway has been effective out of the pen (10 1-3 innings of scoreless ball), he's NOT been effective as a starter (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 6 2-3 innings).  That doesn't bode well for Miami tonight.  Nor does the fact that New York's won five of the last six meetings here in Miami, and has outscored Miami by an average of 2.83 rpg in those six road games.  The Marlins are 53-75 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, and 51-80 inside the division.  Even worse, they're 89-120 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) off a blowout win by more than three runs, and 29-44 after allowing less than three runs.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox.  If you were to guess which starting pitchers were tied for the lead in the American League with five victories, Toronto LH Steven Matz and his 4.29 ERA in eight starts would probably not be on your list.  But despite that somewhat inflated number, Matz has been very effective this season for his team.  And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Jays have one of the best offenses in the game right now.  And given that last season was one to forget for the 29-year-old southpaw (0-5 with a 9.68 ERA in nine games -- six starts), the 4.29 number represents a huge turnaround.  The Mets traded Matz to the Jays after the 2020 season and Matz certainly has not looked back.  Start number nine will his second career outing against the Red Sox.  One of the other AL pitchers with five wins is Matz's mound opponent tonight, Boston's Nick Pivetta.  Pivetta also came over to the AL East from the NL East (Phillies), and has made two career starts vs. the Jays.  Unfortunately, his team lost both of those starts, and his career ERA is 5.40, covering 11 2/3 innings against Toronto.  Take the Blue Jays.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Unlike last season's playoffs, when all the games were played at a neutral site, this season's games are being played at the home rinks of the various teams.  And some teams (like the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins) have out-performed at home this season.  Indeed, the Penguins were 22-6 at home in the regular season, but just 15-13 (minus 3 games on the moneyline) on the road.  Likewise, New York is 21-7 at home this year, including a perfect 6-0 against teams that outscore their opponents by at least a half-goal.  That bodes well for New York tonight.  As does the fact that the Isles are a super 33-20 (+14 games on the money line) after scoring less than two goals in their previous game.  With the Islanders off a 2-1 loss to Pittsburgh in Game #2, we'll take the Islanders at home tonight, on Thursday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins.  The White Sox are atop the Central division, with a 25-16 record, while the Twins are in the basement, with a 14-26 mark.  Chicago has been installed as a road favorite this afternoon, and that bodes well, given its 44-16 record when priced from -125 to -175.  Even better:  Lucas Giolito has led his teams to wins in 28 of 44 road games in his career (+21 games on the moneyline).  Meanwhile, the Twins are a poor 8-16 this season in afternoon games, while Matt Shoemaker's clubs have won just 12 of his 32 daytime starts.  Take the White Sox.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It's early in the season still, but the hard-luck pitching award just might have to go the Cardinals' John Gant.  The 28-year-old has a 1.83 ERA in seven starts covering just over 34 innings, and yet Gant's record is just 2-3.  Perhaps a start against the 17-23 Pirates will help to turn Gant's fortunes around.  Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker has also put up some pretty gaudy numbers this season.  In seven starts, the 27-year-old RH is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in just over 38 innings.  But he already has a start against the Division-leading Cards and that one was Brubaker's worst start of the season as he allowed three runs on seven hits in just five innings.  This has been one of the most lopsided series in the National League recently as the Cardinals are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  And the Pirates are 23-48 in the last 71 meetings here at Busch Stadium.  The Pirates are also 1-6 (-5 games on the moneyline) in Brubaker's last seven road starts.  Take the Cardinals.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the New York Islanders.  Four of the first seven 2021 NHL playoff games have gone to OT and a fifth easily could have.  If this second game of the Pittsburgh-New York series heads there, it's likely bad news for the Pens, who lost Game 1 and need to dominate tonight before this series heads to Long Island.  The Pens could get a huge boost by the return of C Evgeni Malkin who's been battling a lower body injury, but even if the 34-year-old can't re-join his team, Pittsburgh should still have enough firepower to level this series.  Despite their victory on Sunday, the Isles are just 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Pens and 16-35 in the last 51 here at the Igloo.  The Isles will likely get #1 goalie Semyon Varlamov back tonight, which will be welcomed, even though Ilya Sorokin performed very well in Game 1.  But I don't think that will be enough, as Pittsburgh is 17-4 (+12 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 revenging a loss vs. an opponent.  And it's 15-2 at home off a loss in its previous game.  Take the Penguins.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Toronto.  The Red Sox come into this game off a 1-run loss to the Angels, and have been installed as a road underdog tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill.  Rodriguez faced Toronto earlier this year, and got the win in a 4-2 Boston victory.  His mound opponent then, was also the same as tonight (Hyun-Jin Ryu).  Ryu gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in that game, and has a career 5.81 record vs. the Red Sox in four starts.  He's 0-3 in those four games.  Finally, Boston is 8-1 its last nine as an underdog, and 87-63 its last 150 off a loss.  Take the Red Sox.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami.  zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies today, and he brings a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP into the contest.  He's also 8-3 vs. Miami in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.  The Phillies are a stellar 14-2 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175, and 25-11 after allowing 9+ runs in their previous game.  Take the Phillies.