At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox.  The Astros have gotten steamrolled the past two games, 9-5 and 12-3 by Boston.  So, in this critical Game 4, they'll turn to the veteran RH, Zack Greinke, with the hope that he can summon his past post-season experience to get them through this rough pitching patch.  It's true that Greinke's best days are behind him.  But his road ERA this season was 3.45, which compares favorably to Nick Pivetta's 5.40 ERA here at Fenway Park.  Moreover, Pivetta has never started a playoff game in his career, while Greinke has 19 starts in the post-season to his credit.  And the Red Sox have lost six of Pivetta's last seven starts, with their only win coming against the cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles.  And Pivetta gave up 3 runs and 7 hits over 3 2/3 innings in that ball game (in which Boston was a -280 favorite).  Indeed, the Red Sox have lost Pivetta's LAST 8 starts in which Boston wasn't favored by -250 (or more).  Take the Astros.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:40 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Milwaukee Bucks.  Last season, we cashed the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) to win the NBA title, and also cashed our preseason pick on Baylor (at 12-1 odds) in College Basketball to win the NCAA championship.  This season, our preseason NBA pick is on the Brooklyn Nets (currently at +260 at BetOnline) to win the title.  And we'll take them in this season-opening game against the team which ousted them from the quarterfinals last season.  But it was the narrowest of victories for Mike Budenholzer's men, as Kevin Durant was just two inches in front of the three-point arc on what turned out to be a game-tying (rather than a game-winning) shot.  However, Brooklyn outscored Milwaukee in that 7-game series by 2.86 ppg, and were (in my eyes) the better team, even in defeat.  But I was more than happy to have the Bucks win that series, and eventually the NBA title.  Now, it's a new season, and we'll take James Harden & Co. to avenge that playoff loss, and get Brooklyn off to a 1-0 start.  Take the Nets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves won the first two games of this series at home, something that's been more difficult to do in this year's post-season than in most past ones.  This afternoon the series swings back to Los Angeles for what would appear to be a must-win situation for the Dodgers -- at least based on the way the Braves are playing right now.  The good news is that in the third game of this series the Dodgers get to bring out RHP Walker Buehler, who is 3-0 in his six career starts vs. the Braves with a 3.06 ERA.  Buehler finished the regular season with a 16-4 record and 2.47 ERA in a league-best 33 starts.  RH Charlie Morton goes to the hill for the road team, which is an awful 0-6 this season as a road underdog of +150 or more.  Morton did go 14-6 this season, with a 3.34 ERA.  But the Braves lost all three of his starts when they were a road underdog.  The mid-afternoon start time also bodes well for Los Angeles.  In six daytime starts this season, Buehler went 5-1 (.833) with a 2.45 ERA.  Morton, on the other hand, did not fare quite so well, going 1-2 with 4.17 ERA in seven afternoon starts (vs. 13-4 and 3.14 in 26 starts under the lights).  And in his career, his teams are a wallet-breaking 38-51 (minus 21.4 net games on the moneyline) in the daytime.  With the Dodgers a reliable 92-47 (+17 net games) off a loss (including 22-7 with Buehler), and 30-16 (+5.1 net games) off back-to-back losses, we'll take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Tennessee returns home off back to back road games vs. the Jets and Jaguars, which they split with a loss at New York, and a 37-19 victory at Jacksonville last Sunday.  The Bills also won last week, as they upset the defending AFC champion, Kansas City Chiefs, 38-20, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  But off that huge upset win over the team that knocked it out of last year's playoffs, we will fade Buffalo on the road against Tennessee.  Indeed, over the last 42 years, NFL teams off 18-point (or greater) upset wins have cashed just 35% on the road vs. foes off a win.  Even worse, teams off upset wins have cashed just 20% on Monday Night Football since 1980 as road favorites vs. non-division foes.  Meanwhile, home teams have gone 73-38-3 ATS on Monday Night Football, if they were off a road win, and were not laying more than 5 points.  Take the Titans as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game win streak after winning 3 home games vs. Philadelphia, Carolina, and the New York Giants.  But from Week 3 forward, the Eagles are 1-3, the Panthers are 1-2, and the Giants are 1-2.  So, not exactly "Murderer's Row."  That's not to imply the Cowboys are playing poorly -- they're not.  But the fact that Dallas has rolled up 41, 36 and 44 points over those last three home games should be taken with a boulder of salt.  They'll now travel to Foxborough to take on a New England team which is giving up just 18.4 ppg (again, a far cry from teams like Philadelphia (25.33) and the Giants (27.8)).  We'll grab the points with New England, as teams (like Dallas) off back to back home wins, are 38% ATS in the regular season after scoring more than 30 points in back to back games.  And > .750 NFL teams playing away from home, without the better defense, have cashed just 37%.  Meanwhile, Bill Belichick's men are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored by 7+ points vs. an .800 (or better) opponent.  Finally, New England also falls into 363-266, 240-147 and 121-57 ATS systems of mine.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Arizona.  The Cardinals are riding high with a 5-0 record, but have been installed as an underdog against the 3-2 SU/ATS Browns, who lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers, 47-42, last Sunday.  The Browns easily could also be 5-0, as their other loss was to the defending AFC champion Chiefs, 33-29, in Kansas City.  I look for the Browns to rebound big here, as teams off losses, in which they scored 37+ points, have gone 37-13 ATS vs. .300 (or better) foes, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if our 'play-on' team (here, Cleveland) owned an ATS record of .550 (or better).  That bodes well for the Browns here.  As does the fact that they're 5-0 ATS their last five when favored vs. the NFC.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Ravens were my preseason choice (at 16-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl, and they've won three of four nail-biters (along with one blowout vs. Denver) to move to 4-1 on the season.  Also 4-1 is Los Angeles, which has lost to just Dallas in its first five games.  Los Angeles has won and covered its last three, but road teams off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a poor 69-102 ATS in the regular season vs. .800 (or better) teams.  Additionally, the Ravens are 30-16 ATS at home vs. winning teams when the Ravens were off an ATS loss, and not favored by 3+ points.  Take Baltimore.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors had last weekend off following their 27-24 upset home win on October 2nd vs. Fresno, while Nevada won by 27 here, in Reno, vs. New Mexico State.  This will be Hawaii's 3rd trip to the mainland this season, and they were smashed in the first two:  44-10 by UCLA, and 45-27 by Oregon State.  Over the years, I've loved playing against Hawaii on the mainland in certain situations, and this Saturday's game in Reno fits many of Hawaii's worst point spread roles, including this 100% perfect angle.  Since 1980, Hawaii is 0-16 ATS on the road, when rested, and installed as an underdog of +20 or less points.  Even better:  double-digit underdogs with a .363 (or better) record are a poor 35-73 ATS off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if their opponent was off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Arizona State.  We had a huge play on the Sun Devils last Friday, and won big in a 28-10 blowout win over Stanford.  That was ASU's third straight win and cover.  But this hot streak sets them up in a negative 28.4% system of mine which goes against certain teams that are off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Utah also had an impressive breakout performance last Saturday, as it went into Los Angeles, and upset Southern Cal, 42-26, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  And that moved Utah's conference record to 2-0 this season.  So this "battle of unbeatens" will be a key game in the race for the conference championship.  We'll go against the Sun Devils on the road, as Pac-12 Conference teams, with a 3-0 (or better) conference record, have cashed just 17 of 53 road games vs. .500 (or better) conference foes off a win.  Take Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over Boise State.  Air Force is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS after winning (and covering) at home vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  They'll now travel to Boise to take on a 3-3 Broncos squad.  Last week, the Broncos stunned the then-undefeated BYU Cougars, 26-17, as a 6.5-point road underdog.  But off that upset win, we will look for a letdown by the Broncos on Saturday.  Indeed, that upset win was somewhat fortunate, given that BYU outyarded Boise, 413-312, but were doomed by four turnovers.  Last season, the Broncos went into Colorado Springs, and blew out the Falcons, 49-30.  Unfortunately, since 1980, .500 (or worse) teams are a soft 41% ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a revenge-minded foe off a double-digit win.  Additionally, teams off upset wins, as 6-point (or greater) dogs, over unbeaten teams that were 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 42% over the last 40 years vs. .500 (or better) teams.  Take the points with the Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners + the points over Louisiana Tech.  We played on the Miners two weeks ago, and were rewarded with a 28-21 win and cover vs. Old Dominion.  The Miners are putting a nice season together, as they're 5-1 straight-up.  But they continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.  They're a home underdog on this Saturday vs. the 2-3 Bulldogs.  And we will happily grab the points with UTEP, as it falls into a 311-208 'momentum' angle of mine which plays on certain home teams with a win percentage greater than .750.  Moreover, home dogs have cashed 60.4% since 1990 if they owned a better record than their opponent, and were off back to back wins.  Take Texas El Paso + the number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves.  The 2021 NLCS will feature the same two teams who met in this series a year ago.  Game 1 is being played in Atlanta despite the fact that the Dodgers finished the season 18 games better than the Braves in the won-lost column.  Game 1 will also feature one of the hottest starters in all of the Majors in the second half of the season in LH Max Fried.  Since the break, Fried went 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 14 second half starts covering 83 innings.  Los Angeles will counter with a bullpen game, and will start things off with Corey Knebel.  The Dodgers used this strategy on Thursday in their Game 5 win vs. the San Francisco Giants, and Knebel pitched a scoreless inning.  He's made five starts this season, and has allowed just one earned run in those games.  Los Angeles has won four of those five starts.  Meanwhile, Fried hasn't had much success vs. the Dodgers, as he's 1-3 in seven starts, with a middling 3.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  And the Braves are a wallet-busting 32-37 (but minus 20.6 net games on the moneyline) at home off 3+ wins.  Finally, LA is 33-15 (+7.5 net games) vs. lefties.  Take Los Angeles.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Mississippi.  The Volunteers come into this game vs. Mississippi off back to back blowout wins.  They destroyed Missouri, 62-24, in Columbia, and then smashed South Carolina, 45-20, last week, as a 10.5-point home favorite.  Tennessee is now a small home underdog.  And I love playing on home dogs that can score.  Dating back to 1983, underdogs of more than 2 points have cashed 57% at home if they averaged more than 41 points per game.  Ole Miss can also score, as evidenced by its 52-51 victory last week against Arkansas.  But Ole miss is also 1-8-1 ATS its last 10 after scoring 49+ points, if its current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Volunteers + the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State.  It's impossible to be worse than the Lobos have been "in Vegas" this season, as they're 0-6 ATS.  But faithful followers know that I've never shied away from playing on bad teams.  And I won't here, as New Mexico falls into a system which has cashed 58% since 1984, which plays on winless ATS teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) ATS record, against foes that didn't fail to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.   And New Mexico also falls into a 59-18 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off 3+ ATS losses, as well as an 81-37 ATS angle of mine which takes certain teams off 5+ ATS losses.  Take the Lobos as a big home underdog.

At 4:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox.  What a season this could turn out to be for a player who was an unheralded 23-year-old when he made his debut last September.  Luis Garcia came into this past Spring pretty much unheard of.  But now the Astros' second-year rookie starter stands to be one of the finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year award.  And the 24-year-old RH would almost certainly trade that for a trip to the World Series in his first full season in the Majors.  Garcia finished the season with an 11-8 record, 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 30 games (28 starts) covering 155 1/3 innings.  It won't be easy this afternoon against the Red Sox and their #1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi, but all season Garcia has defied the odds.  This start lines up well for Garcia who was 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA in 15 home games (13 starts) vs. 5-3 and 4.24 in 15 road starts.  Among Garcia's victims was Boston back on June 1 when he spun seven strong innings allowing one run on five hits in a 5-1 Astros victory.  Take Houston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Texas A&M.  Last week, we played on the Aggies as an 18-point underdog vs. Alabama, and easily got the $$$ with an outright win vs. the defending national champions.  But off that big victory, we will fade the Aggies today away from home.  Indeed, Texas A&M is a horrid 11-26 ATS on the road vs. a .500 (or better) foe following a home victory at College Station.  And it's 1-4 ATS its last five vs. Missouri.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are 14-3 ATS as a home underdog, priced from +7 to +15 points vs. a foe off a SU win.  And, finally, NCAA teams are an ugly 0-8 ATS away from home following a home win over the defending national champions, if they're priced from -8 to -18 points.  Take the home underdog Tigers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan State.  Mel Tucker's Spartans are a spotless 6-0 on the season, and they're 5-0-1 ATS.  But we will fade Michigan State as a road favorite in Bloomington against a rested Hoosiers squad.  Indiana last took the field against the then-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions, and was shut out, 24-0 (coincidentally, the same score by which Indiana defeated Michigan State in East Lansing last season).  But over the last 42 years, underdogs of +3 (or more) points off shutout home losses have cashed 63.3% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Indeed, Michigan State was in this exact same situation last season following its 24-0 home loss to Indiana, and rebounded to upset Northwestern, 29-20, as a 13.5-point underdog (when Northwestern was 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS).  Take Indiana to pull off the mild upset.  Grab the points with the Hoosiers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs are 5-0 on the season, with ATS wins in each of their last four games.  In contrast, the Spartans are scuffling, with a 3-3 record, but five straight ATS losses in their last five.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Aztecs.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams playing conference games away from home are a soft 67-97 ATS if they're off a win, and 3+ ATS wins, while their foe is off 3+ ATS losses.  That doesn't bode well for San Diego State as a huge road favorite tonight.  Nor does the fact that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, are a wallet-busting 29-59 ATS away from home, if they're off back to back ATS wins, and favored by 7+ points against an opponent with a .444 (or better) record.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  Unlike Corbin Burnes who told the Brewers he was physically unable to pitch on three days rest when his team needed a win on Tuesday, Dodgers ace Walker Buehler said, "hand me the ball."  The results for those two teams were as you might expect, with the Brewers going home and the Dodgers going back to San Francisco for Game 5 tonight.  And with the day off, L.A. gets the services of the Major League wins leader, LHP Julio Urias, on regular (four days) rest.  Urias pitched Game 2 here in San Francisco and not only was the 25-year-old his usual dominant self, but the Dodgers' offense responded in a big way, scoring nine runs on the way to an easy 9-2 victory.  Lest you think Urias' inexperience might get to him tonight in this all-or-nothing situation, consider that he has already appeared in 19 MLB post-season games covering 42 2/3 innings, including four starts.  His 2.68 playoff ERA is lower than his regular season number (3.09).  I won't step in front of this battle-tested southpaw, as Urias has won 12 consecutive decisions, and the Dodgers are 16-2 his last 18 starts, including 12-0 his last 12.  Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  We played on Philly last week as a road dog at Carolina, and got the cash with an upset win.  They're now a home underdog vs. the defending Super Bowl champs, and we'll grab the points with Philly tonight.  Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are a horrid 0-13 ATS following a home win, when favored on the road by 7 or less points vs. non-division foes, provided their opponent wasn't off back-to-back losses.  Even better, home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points, off a SU road win, have gone 142-87 ATS vs. foes off a SU home win.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Navy.  The Tigers enter tonight's game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while Navy has covered the point spread in each of its last three games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the underdog Midshipmen here, especially given Navy's vaunted road ATS mark over the last 33 seasons.  But consider that NCAA favorites of 3+ points have covered the spread 64% since 1980 off 3+ losses, if they're playing an opponent off 3 ATS wins.  Additionally, Memphis is a terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points off back to back losses, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. conference foes.  Take the Tigers to blow out Navy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants.  This is an action play; please do not list pitchers.  The Dodgers were the pre-season favorites to repeat as World Series Champions, while the Giants were 80-1 to win the World Series, but the tables have turned, and the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination.  However, the Dodgers were also on the brink when they played a one-game Wild Card elimination against the Cardinals at home last Wednesday.  We played on Los Angeles in that one, and they came through that night.  Instead of Max Scherzer, it will be an "all hands on deck" game, which will include Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin, among others taking the mound for the defending champs.  Buehler is 7-2 lifetime vs. the Giants, and has given up just 4 earned runs in his four home starts vs. SF, covering 25 2/3 innings.  Meanwhile, Gonsolin may not have Buehler's pedigree, but he has been sneaky good this season, posting a 4-1 record and 3.23 ERA in 15 games.  The 27-year-old will likely follow Buehler, and only will have to throw a few innings tonight, as the Dodgers will have plenty of other options to fill the nine innings.  Gonsolin was 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA here at home this season (vs. 5-3 and 3.34 on the road).  And Los Angeles has won 16 of its last 17 home games.  Take the Dodgers.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns + the points over Appalachian State.  The Cajuns are 4-1, and off back to back road wins over Georgia Southern and South Alabama.  They're also a home underdog tonight.  We'll grab the points with Louisiana, as .800 (or better) teams (at Game 6 forward), off back to back wins, have cashed 57.3% since 1980, including a solid 68.5% if their opponent was off a double-digit win, and a double-digit cover.  With Appalachian State, indeed, off a 45-16 blowout of Georgia State (as a 10-point favorite), our 68.5% tightener is satisfied.  Lafayette is also a solid 19-5 ATS since 2010 in Sun Belt Conference games, priced from -1.5 to +9 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home.  Grab the points with the Cajuns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Buffalo.  The Bills will enter Arrowhead on quite a roll, as they've scored 35, 43 and 40 points in their last three games -- all blowout wins by more than 21 points.  But that's not necessarily a good thing, as road underdogs are a soft 24-42-2 ATS after 3 SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 95 point combined.  And road teams off three SU/ATS wins by 20+ points are a horrid 2-15-1 ATS if they weren't favored by more than 7 points in their current game.  It's been years since the Chiefs have been priced this inexpensive at home (with a healthy Patrick Mahomes), and we will take full advantage.  Indeed, Kansas City is 46-19 ATS at home if it wasn't off a SU/ATS loss, and it wasn't favored by 3 or more points.  Take the Chiefs to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros.  Having been soundly beaten in the first two games of this ALDS -- a combined score of 15-5 -- this pretty much becomes a must-win situation for the Chicago White Sox in Game three.  The good news is they're at home and they have their young gun RHP Dylan Cease going in his second career post-season appearance (first start).  The important thing to note is that the Sox were able to line up Cease's first playoff start here at home.  It's well known by now that during the regular season, the 25-year-old has had one of the strongest home-field biases in the game.  In 16 starts here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Cease is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP compared to 7-5 and 4.69 with a 1.33 WHIP in 16 road starts.  The other good thing about coming home is that the Sox are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Astros here in Chicago, and 22-10 their last 32 at home with double-revenge.  Despite all of their success lately, the Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games vs. teams with a winning record, and a poor 20-33 (minus 14.3 net games) on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125.  Take the White Sox.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Cardinals stunned the Los Angeles Rams, 37-20, as a road underdog at SoFi Stadium.  But off that upset win, we will fade the unbeaten Cardinals as a home favorite.  Indeed, the Cardinals are a wallet-breaking 7-20 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-7 ATS vs. a division rival.  And they're 8-28 ATS at home vs. a foe not off a point spread win, including 0-10 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss!  Meanwhile, the 49ers are a reliable 37-12 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Finally, the Cardinals fall into a negative 24-62 ATS system of mine which goes against certain home favorites off upset wins, while the 49ers fall into 363-264 and 132-69 ATS angles that play on certain teams with inferior scoring margins than their opponent.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Browns/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Browns held their two previous opponents -- Chicago and Minnesota -- to 6 and 7 points, respectively.  But neither the Bears nor the Vikings will be in the post-season.  Los Angeles, on the other hand, is looking every bit like a Super Bowl contender.  The Chargers' offense has tallied 30 and 28 points its last two games, and will put pressure on the Browns' defense.  Justin Herbert has completed 69% of his passes for 1178 yards and nine TDs.  I also believe Cleveland will find success on the ground behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as the Chargers rank 29th against the run, and are giving up 140 yards per game, on a horrid 5.26 yards per carry!  For technical support, consider that NFL teams have gone OVER the total 61.1% of the time when the line was greater than 46 points, if they gave up 15 (or less) points combined over the previous two games.  Take the OVER!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers game.  After giving up just 6 and 17 points in their first two games, the Eagles' defense has been leaky of late, as it's given up 41 and 42 points the past two weeks -- both double-digit losses.  Likewise, Carolina's defense surrendered 36 points last week to Dallas (in a 36-28 loss), after giving up just 7 and 9 its two previous games.  I look for both defenses to return to form on this Sunday, and play much better than in recent weeks.  For technical support, consider that the Eagles have gone 'UNDER' in 56 of 80 games after playing a game where 58+ points were scored.  And NFL games have gone under the total 58% since 1985 if both teams were off a game where more than 60 points was scored.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos.  After starting the year with an impressive 23-16 win over (arguably) the AFC's most impressive team, the Steelers have stumbled badly, with three consecutive defeats to the Raiders, Bengals and Packers.  And they scored just 17, 10 and 17 points in those three games.  The good news here is that Pittsburgh tends to bounce back at home off back-to-back losses, as they're 37-17 straight-up, 33-21 ATS, and 34-18-2 OVER the total.  Pittsburgh's also 66-40 OVER the total when the line has been less than 40 points.  Likewise, the Broncos also stumbled on offense last week, as they lost 23-7 to Baltimore.  But the Broncos are 14-1-1 OVER the total after losing a game in which less than 33 total points were scored.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England Patriots/Houston Texans game.  The Texans were shut out last week, 40-0, by the Buffalo Bills.  So, clearly, their offense behind rookie QB Davis Mills is a mess right now.  Of course, the oddsmakers have made their adjustments, and the over/under line for this game is more than 7 points lower than either game each of these teams played last week.  From my perspective, the oddsmakers have over-reacted, and there's significant value in taking the OVER in this game.  For technical support, consider than NFL games have gone OVER the total 65.5% over the last 42 years, if both teams were coming into the game off an UNDER, and both teams had over/under lines more than 6 points greater in their previous game than the current game.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Carolina Panthers.  The Eagles come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, with each of their two previous defeats coming by double-digits.  But I love the Eagles this Sunday afternoon, as teams off 3+ losses have covered 60% vs. winning foes, if our team wasn't getting 4+ points.  And Philly is 39-21 ATS on the road off back to back defeats, including 22-8 ATS when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 4 points.  Take the Eagles.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Nevada.  This will be the 4th time the Aggies have been an underdog of more than points this season.  And they covered the spread in the first three games.  Last week, the Wolf Pack stunned Boise, 41-31, as a road underdog.  Unfortunately, Mountain West home favorites (or PK) have covered just 8 of 36 after an upset road win.  Also, Nevada's covered just 28% since 1980 as favorites off an upset road win.  Grab the points with New Mexico State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulsa.  Tulsa was smashed here, at home, by Houston, 45-10, as a 3-point favorite last Friday.  And the Golden Hurricane are once against installed as a home favorite.  Unfortunately, home teams without a winning record have generally not bounced back off double-digit SU (and double-digit ATS) losses, as they've cashed just 38% of conference games over the last 42 years.  That doesn't bode well for the Golden Hurricane on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Tulsa is 11-44 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -15 to +10 points, if they lost their previous game by more than 5 points.  Grab the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  We played against the Aggies last Saturday, and got the $$$ with Mississippi State, which upset A&M as a 7-point underdog.  That was the 2nd straight loss for the Aggies, whose impressive 3-0 start is now largely forgotten.  The Aggies, though, are a super 13-1 ATS as home dogs of more than 2 points when playing a .900 (or better) foe.  Meanwhile, defending national champs (like Alabama) are a soft 12-29 ATS when playing on the road without rest, if they covered the spread in each of their two previous games.  Take the Aggies + the points over the Crimson Tide.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders went into Morgantown last week, and upset the Mountaineers, 23-20, as an 8-point underdog.  But off that big win, we'll fade the Red Raiders tonight against a TCU team looking to get back into the win column off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Indeed, NCAA road favorites of 8 or less points, off exactly 2 SU/ATS losses, have cashed 58% of conference games over the past 42 years.  And the Red Raiders are an ugly 2-16 ATS at home, or on neutral fields, off an upset Big 12 Conference win.  Take TCU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Texas-San Antonio.  The Roadrunners have sprinted out to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record, after defeating UNLV in San Antonio last Saturday.  But the Roadrunners have been installed as an underdog vs. a 1-3 Western Kentucky squad.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with the undefeated Roadrunners.  But consider that, at Game 5 forward, NCAA road underdogs of more than 3 points off a home win, with a .750 (or better) SU/ATS record, have covered just 15 of 56 vs. conference foes off a point spread loss.  The reality is that Texas-San Antonio's schedule has been a lot softer than that of Western Kentucky, as the Hilltoppers were saddled with games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State.  When Western Kentucky faced an opponent of equal (or lesser) talent this season, it won in blowout fashion (59-21 vs Tennessee-Martin).  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Washington State.  Both of these teams come into this game off impressive wins.  The Beavers edged Washington, 27-24, while Washington St. went into Berkeley and defeated Cal, 21-6, as a 7.5-point underdog.  Last season, the Cougars went into Corvallis and upset the Beavers, 38-28, as a 3-point road underdog.  With revenge on its mind, we'll lay the points with Oregon State this afternoon.  The Beavers are 32-13-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 9-1 ATS vs. foes with a losing record.  Meanwhile, the Cougars are a wallet-busting 0-7 ATS at home off a double-digit upset win away from home.  Take Oregon State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Illinois.  The Illini snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 24-14 win over Charlotte last weekend.  Meanwhile, the Badgers have taken it on the chin the past two weeks, with back to back upset losses by 28 and 21 points.  But I love them to bounce back this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA road favorites off a loss by more than 18 points, have cashed 71.6% since 1981, when favored by more than 2 points against a foe off a double-digit win.  Likewise, road favorites priced from -9 to -16 points are 16-0 ATS off back to back losses, if their opponent is off a win by more than 8 points.  Take Wisky to roll on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles over Miami-Ohio.  Last Saturday, the RedHawks upset Central Michigan, 28-17, in Oxford.  But off that home upset win, we'll fade Miami in Ypsilanti this weekend.  For technical support, consider that Mid-American Conference teams have covered just 2 of their last 21 (and 21 of their last 65) on the road off a home upset win the previous week, if they covered the spread in that victory by 10+ points.  Take Eastern Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos over Ball State.  Last year, the Cardinals upset Western Michigan, 30-27.  We'll take the Broncos in this revenge role, as Ball State has covered just 31% over the last 21 years when playing a revenge-minded foe, if the Cardinals were not a winning team.  And Western Michigan is 8-3 ATS its last 11 home games, including a perfect 4-0 ATS vs. foes off a win.  The Broncos have been quite impressive this season in rolling out to a 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS record.  Their only loss was a road game at #8-ranked Michigan, while they went into Pittsburgh, and upset a very good Panthers team, 44-41, as a 14-point underdog.  Lay the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over Middle Tennessee.  Very few teams have played as well "in Vegas" as Liberty over the past couple seasons.  The Flames are 13-2 ATS their last 15, and have covered the spread by an average of 7.12 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders have long under-achieved, and have been particularly bad away from home, when not laying 3 points, against an opponent with a winning ATS record, as they've covered just 12 of 41.  Take the Flames to blow out Middle Tenn.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Michigan State.  After starting the 2021 campaign with four straight ATS wins, the Knights were blown out last week here, at home, by Ohio State, 52-13, as a 15-point underdog.  But there's not much shame in that.  Off that point spread loss, we'll take Rutgers to rebound on Saturday, as its defense has been stellar outside of last week's game.  Indeed, Rutgers gave up just 275 yards to #8-ranked Michigan, and just 261, 258 and 260 in its three games prior to that.  The 5-0 Spartans, on the other hand, have given up 440, 442, and 560 in their last three games.  Michigan State has covered just 9 of 28 Big 10 conference games vs. foes off a loss by 25+ points.  And it's 8-20 ATS as a favorite of more than 4 points, away from home, vs. Big 10 foes.  Take Rutgers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Stanford.  The Sun Devils and Cardinal both pulled off big upsets last weekend.  Arizona State stunned the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl, 42-23, while Stanford shocked #3-ranked Oregon, 31-24, in overtime.  We'll lay the points with Arizona State, as it's 12-0 ATS as a home favorite vs. a conference opponent off an upset win the previous week.  Additionally, the Cardinal fall into negative 85-157, 41-111, and 61-140 ATS systems of mine based on their upset victory over the Ducks.  Take the Sun Devils.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.  The two teams that long ago used to be one and the same face off in this first round series.  For a while, it looked like Corbin Burnes would be a shoe-in for NL Cy Young, especially when Jacob deGrom went down with an injury.  He was pretty much untouchable through the first month of the season and went on to an All-Star first half.  He looked a lot more mortal in many of his second half starts and yet the 26-year-old RHP still finished with a league-best 2.43 ERA in 28 starts.  The only stat that might keep him from winning that Cy Young hardware is his 11 victories, but nobody will care about that too much this afternoon if Burnes can channel the version of himself that threw goose-eggs in eight of his starts this season.  Burnes has made six playoff appearances and has a 2.00 ERA in those, but this will be his first post-season start.  His lone start vs. Atlanta this season wasn't one of his best but the Brewers won the game easily, 9-5.  Take Milwaukee.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over Houston.  The Green Wave come into this game off a 23-point upset loss at the hands of East Carolina last Saturday, while Houston pulled off a 35-point upset at Tulsa.  But off those two disparate results, we'll step in and take the home dog Green Wave.  Indeed, teams off 20-point upset losses have cashed 10 straight vs foes off 20-point upset wins!  That bodes well for Tulane here, tonight.  As does the fact that home underdogs off 14 or less points, off upset conference losses, have cashed 70% over the last 42 years vs. conference foes off upset wins.  Finally, Tulane is 9-1 ATS off a conference defeat, while Houston is an awful 0-10 ATS off a win, if it's matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss.  Take the Green Wave + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Each of these two AFC West division rivals has gone 'under' the total a significant amount of the time when playing a division foe.  To wit:  the Chargers are 80-33-1 UNDER the total when playing at home vs. an AFC West opponent.  And the Raiders are 62-37-1 UNDER the total on the road in division games.   And the 'under' also falls into a 20-1 Totals system of mine, as well as a 67-35 Monday Night Football Totals system.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres.  With the Giants' loss in extra innings last night coupled with the Dodgers' win over the Brewers, the Giants have a one-game lead and need this victory today to avoid a one-game playoff with L.A.  The good news is that they are sending out the pitcher who has been arguably their best starter over the past couple of months.  24-year-old RHP Logan Webb has come out of nowhere to not only be one of the most effective starters on this team, but also in the entire league.  In 26 games -- including 25 starts -- Webb is 10-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  More importantly, the Giants are an incredible 9-1 in Webb's last 10 starts going back to early August.  The only team loss in those 10 starts?  That was two starts ago against this Padres team, making this afternoon's final start a revenge situation as well.  Not only that, but in his last 11 home starts, the Giants are 11-0.  San Fran is 39-18 (+21 games on the moneyline) in its last 57 day games.  Take the Giants.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New Orleans.  New York is 0-3 to start the season.  But I won't pass up taking points from a Saints team which is an ugly 29-60 ATS as a home favorite vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a loss.  Moreover, winless teams are a superb 241-176 on the non-division road since 1980.  And, finally, the Giants are a wallet-fattening 17-0 ATS their last 17 NFC conference road games when they've owned a losing record.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to go OVER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off low-scoring games.  The Jets were shutout, 26-0, as a 10-point road underdog in Denver, while Tennessee won, 25-16, as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. the Colts.  New York has played each of its three games under the total, while the Titans have played two of their first three under the total.  And this general paucity of scoring in the games played by these teams thus far has led to the number on this game moving 2 to 3 points down from the opener.  I think this is a severe over-reaction to the fact that the Jets have scored just 20 points this season.  Indeed, New York's first 3 opponents (Denver, Carolina, New England) currently rank #1, #2 and #5 in scoring defense!  The Titans, on the other hand, are giving up a whopping 28 points per game, and rank #25 in scoring defense.  I fully expect the Flyboys to be able to put up some points here, at home, on this Sunday afternoon.  Tennessee has played 7 of its last 8 (and 12 of its last 16) road games over the total, and has surrendered an average of 28.63 ppg in its last eight road games.  And it's 9-0-1 'over' the total its last 10 games off a home win.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners minus the points over Old Dominion.  UTEP fell behind early last week here, at home, to New Mexico, but stormed back for a 20-13 upset victory.  They'll now welcome Conference USA rival, Old Dominion, to El Paso.  And Conference USA teams are a fantastic 76-41 ATS at home off an upset win, if they're playing an opponent not off back to back wins.  Moreover, the Miners fall into a super 69% ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset wins.  Take UTEP minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS, while Boston College is 4-0 straight-up.  Clearly, the two teams are going in opposite directions.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Eagles, especially after their impressive win over Missouri last week.  But Boston College falls into a negative 47-74 ATS system of mine which goes against certain undefeated teams against winless ATS foes.  And even though I greatly respect the job that Jeff Hafley is doing in Chestnut Hill, this will be the first time his team is an underdog this season.  For technical support, consider that undefeated underdogs of more than 3 points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a woeful 31.5% ATS since 1985 when matched up against .500 (or worse) opponents.  Take Clemson minus the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Baylor.  We played on the Bears as a home underdog last Saturday vs. Iowa State, and were rewarded with a 31-29 win, as a 7-point dog.  Baylor is undefeated at 4-0, and once again installed as an underdog - this time in Stillwater vs. the similarly-unbeaten Cowboys.  Unfortunately for the Bears, single-digit Big 12 Conference underdogs have covered just 31% of conference games off an upset win.  Even worse:  undefeated teams are a nasty 12-24 ATS at Oklahoma State.  And, finally, undefeated teams have cashed 69% at home vs. foes off upset home wins where they were at least a touchdown underdog.  Lay the points with Oklahoma State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A&M.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game in College Station off losses.  Miss State fell at home, 28-25, to LSU, while A&M lost in Arlington to the Arkansas Razorbacks, 20-10.  The Aggies' offense has left a lot to be desired this season.  After losing starter Haynes King to a broken leg earlier this season, the Aggies are trying to make do with backup Zach Calzada.  But he was just 20-for-36 for 151 passing yards vs. Arkansas.  That won't cut it in the rugged SEC Conference.  Miss State is 2-2, but could easily be 4-0 this season.  It lost 31-29 at Memphis, in part due to a blown call by the officials which allowed a Tigers punt return touchdown to stand.  The Bulldogs outyarded Memphis, 468-246 (!), and didn't lose the turnover battle, but somehow lost.  Then last week, Miss State outyarded LSU 486-343, but came away empty.  Texas A&M has covered just 7 of 24 SEC Conference games when favored by 7+ points.  We'll take the Bulldogs as a big road underdog on Saturday night.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over North Carolina State.  The Wolfpack snapped an 8-game losing streak to Clemson, with a 27-21 overtime win as a double-digit underdog.  But off that huge upset win, we will fade NC State in this non-conference game.  Indeed, since 1980, home teams have covered just 33.8% vs. non-conference foes, if they won outright as a double-digit underdog in their previous game.  And if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, then our home teams have only covered 21% (NC State fits this 21% ATS tightener, as well).  Louisiana Tech's QB, Austin Kendall (63-for-104, 837 yds, 7 TDs, 144 QB rating) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs.  Take LA Tech + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over South Florida.  SMU stunned its metroplex rival, TCU, last Saturday, in Fort Worth, as the Mustangs won by 8, as a 9.5-point underdog.  That moved the record of Sonny Dykes' troops to 4-0 this season.  They're now healthy home favorites against the Bulls, who are 2-2 on the season.   We'll take the homestanding Mustangs, as home favorites of 17+ points, off an upset road win, have cashed 64% since 1980 vs. .500 (or worse) conference foes.  Take SMU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Ole Miss.  Alabama comes into this game off a 63-14 pasting of Southern Mississippi.  I won't step in front of Nick Saban's men here, as his teams are 77-44 ATS when laying between 10 and 29 points.  Even better:  defending National Champs have gone 24-7 ATS in conference games after scoring more than 56 points in their previous game.  Finally, SEC Conference road underdogs of +7 (or more) points are an awful 61-93 ATS against foes off 33+ point victories.  Take Alabama to roll over Ole Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over South Carolina.  Troy was upset last week, 29-16, by Louisiana-Monroe, and will look to bounce back on the road in Columbia against the 2-2 Gamecocks.  Prior to surrendering those 29 points to Monroe, the Trojans had allowed their three previous foes to score just 33 combined.  And that bodes well for Troy here, as .500 (or better) underdogs that allow less than 17.3 ppg have gone 138-92 ATS off an upset loss.  Also, the Trojans are an awesome 7-0 ATS as an underdog off an upset loss, when matched up against .666 (or worse) foes, while South Carolina is 0-8 ATS vs. .666 (or worse) foes off an upset road loss.  And, finally, Troy falls into 220-119 and 91-37 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off SU defeats.  Grab the points with the Trojans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Florida Atlantic.  The Owls are favored by double-digits over the 0-3 Panthers, but fall into an ugly 0-13-1 ATS situation.  Since 2004, Florida Atlantic is 0-13-1 ATS at home vs. losing teams, when favored by less than 12 points.  Even worse:  the Owls come into this game off a blowout, 31-7, loss to Air Force.  But Conference USA favorites of 11 or less points have gone 49-89-4 ATS vs. revenge-minded conference foes.  With the Panthers, indeed, playing with revenge from a 19-point loss last season, we'll grab the double-digits with Florida International.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Kansas State. Lincoln Riley's men will enter Manhattan this afternoon with major revenge, as Kansas State has won the last two years. And the Sooners were favored by 28 and 23.5 points in those two defeats. Never before in the history of my database -- which dates back to 1980 -- has a team lost back to back meetings where it was favored by more than 20 points. We'll step in and play on Oklahoma here, as double-revengers have cashed 55.5 percent if they were upset at home in the previous season. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe.  Dating back to last season, Coastal Carolina has quietly gone 6-0-2 ATS here, at home, in Conway.  Meanwhile, the Warhawks are a wallet-busting 8-15 ATS their last 23 on the road.  Last week, Monroe was at home, and pulled off a stunning upset, 29-16, over Troy, as a 23.5-point dog.  But off that win, we will fade Monroe here, as double-digit underdogs have cashed just 40.2% over the last 42 years vs. winning conference foes, if they were off an upset win the previous week as a two-touchdown underdog.  Take the Chanticleers minus the points.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Cincinnati.  Jack Coan is now listed as 'probable' to play in this match-up between top 10-ranked squads, and we'll grab the points with the homestanding Irish.  Notre Dame has been a very reliable home underdog here, in South Bend, over the years.  And especially when the Irish didn't own a losing record, as they're 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 in that situation.  Even better:  undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have cashed 62 of 100 as home dogs vs. opponents that are also unbeaten, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since Sept 29, 2018.  Take Notre Dame + the points.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Louisville.  Wake Forest comes into this game off four straight blowout wins (by 20+ points each).  And they've covered the spread by 23.5 and 16.5 their past two games.  I won't step in front of this freight train here, in Winston-Salem, as home teams have covered 60% over the last 42 years in conference games, if they were off back to back 20-point wins, covered the spread by 10+ points in each, and weren't favored by more than 7 points.  Lay the points with Wake Forest.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, as the Bulldogs fall into several of my best systems, including ones with records of 281-195, 124-59, 96-34 and 93-24 ATS.  Sam Pittman's Razorbacks upset Texas A&M last Saturday in Arlington (for their 4th straight win and cover), but will face a much stiffer test on Saturday in Athens.  The #2-ranked Bulldogs have given up just 23 points and 278 rushing yards (2.29 ypr) in their four games this season, including a total of 2 yards rushing vs. #25-ranked Clemson.  That doesn't bode well for an Arkansas offense which wants to run the football 70% of the time.  The Razorbacks are averaging just 21 pass attempts per game (compared to 47 runs).  Georgia, on the other hand, has a more balanced offense, and throws the ball 43% of the time.  The Bulldogs whitewashed Vanderbilt, 62-0, in Nashville, last week.  And NCAA teams off 50-point road wins have covered 74% of conference games over the last 42 years.  Meanwhile, NCAA teams (like Arkansas) off back-to-back wins, and 4 ATS wins have covered just 33% as underdogs of 14+ points since 1980.  Arkansas is also 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS as a .500 (or better) team getting 17+ points.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Duke.  North Carolina began its season as the 10th-ranked team in the country, but has stumbled to a 2-2 record.  Its only wins have com at home, where it defeated Georgia State, 59-17, and Virginia, 59-39.  On the road, the Heels are 0-2, with losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.  So, the good news for UNC fans is that the Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill on Saturday to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are riding a 3-game SU/ATS win streak.  Unfortunately for Duke, over the last 35 years, underdogs of more than 19 points, off 3 ATS wins, have covered just 40.9% of the time.  Additionally, North Carolina is 20-6 ATS at home off a road loss by 17+ points.  Lay the points with the Tar Heels.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers.  Lance Lynn is having a terrific season (10-6, 2.72 ERA), but stumbled badly in his last start, six days ago, when he gave up six earned runs.  The good news is that when he's given up more than three earned runs, he's bounced back strong in his next start, as he's given up just 2 earned runs over 23 2/3 innings the previous five instances.  He will be working with an extra day of rest tonight, and that also bodes well, as his teams are 39-15 (+19.5 net games on the moneyline when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest).  Lynn has faced Detroit three times over the last three seasons, and has a 3-0 record (19 innings, 3 runs, 25 strikeouts).  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cincinnati.  Last week, the Bengals went into the Steel City, and upset Pittsburgh, 24-10, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, the Bengals are a horrid 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points off a division win by more than 6 points.  The Jaguars are off to an 0-3 start in the Urban Meyer era, and each loss has been by double-digits.  But we'll step in and take the Jags as a big road underdog in this Nationally Televised game.  Over the years, the league's worst teams have stepped up when the spotlight was on, as teams with a win percentage less than .200 are 15-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 7 points on Monday/Thursday night games.  Even better:  winless road underdogs are 212-152-6 ATS in non-division games, including 16-5 ATS if they were off three straight double-digit defeats.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays.  Astros RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. desperately wanted to show that he could have an injury-free season and start 30 games in the Majors.  He won't quite get there, but he has to be pretty happy with what he's accomplished in 2021.  The 27-year-old will get his career-best 28th start tonight, and he comes in with an excellent 12-5 record and 3.17 ERA.  If McCullers could just cut down on his walks, he could make the transition from very good to great pitcher and possibly one of the AL's elite starters.  And it wouldn't hurt his confidence if he picked up the "W" in his final start of the season against the team with the best record in the league -- and a team that the Astros could see in October.  McCullers has always done his best work here at home.  In 59 starts at Minute Maid Park, McCullers is 25-10 (.714) with a 2.76 ERA vs. just 19-20 and 4.48 in 62 games (59 starts) on the road.  Tampa is 2-6 in the last eight meetings in Houston.  Take the Astros.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Houston Astros.  This series during the last week of the regular season is a possible preview of a post-season match-up in the AL.  The Stros drew first blood last night when the Rays' normally solid bullpen walked in the tying and winning runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.  With the dramatic victory, the Astros are now on the verge of clinching the AL West division title.  The Rays will try to even the series tonight and will send young RHP Drew Rasmussen to the mound in an attempt to do so.  Few noticed when the Rays sent IF Willy Adames to the Brewers for the 26-year-old hurler in May, but the trade helped both teams clinch their divisions.  In 19 games since joining the Rays (nine starts), Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.  He'll try to build on that success tonight in his first career starts vs. Houston.  The Rays are 6-2 in Rasmussen's last eight starts overall and 5-0 in his last five road starts going back to July 24.  Take Tampa Bay.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals.  Thanks in large part to one of the hottest streaks we've seen from any Major League club in recent years, the Cardinals are on the verge of securing a Wild Card spot.  Their reward -- if you can call it that -- will be a one game playoff against either the Dodgers or Giants.  The Cards will go into that game with almost no pressure, knowing that just a couple of months ago few people gave them any chance to be in this position.  But tonight it's the 2nd game of a 3-game set against their main rivals, the Brewers.  Milwaukee's RHP Adrian Houser will try to do what no one else has been able to in the Cards' last 17 games.  Houser's solid season (9-6 with a 3.34 ERA in 27 games including 25 starts) has been overshadowed by the performances of the other starters in the rotation.  No doubt he and the Brewers would love to see him get to double-digit wins for the first time in his career.  The Crew is 3-1 in Houser's last four starts vs. the Cards.  Take Milwaukee.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees.  Yesterday, the Blue Jays managed to score just two runs against Jameson Taillon and the Yankees, and fell, 7-2.  Tonight, the Jays will look to bounce back, and stay in the race for the final playoff berth (the Jays currently sit one game behind Boston, and three behind New York).  Toronto is 25-12 (+11 net games on the moneyline) after scoring less than three runs.  Take the Blue Jays.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners.  You can't make up the season that Chris Bassitt has had.  The 32-year-old was voted to his first All Star game on the strength of a first half in which he went 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 19 starts covering 118 innings.  And the second half started solidly as well for Bassitt in starts against the Rangers, Indians, Rangers, and tonight's opponents, the Mariners.  But then in his start on August 17 against the White Sox, Bassitt was struck in the head by a line drive in one of the scariest moments of the season.  Miraculously, Bassitt made his comeback start only five weeks after that terrible incident and it was against this Seattle team.  In three near-perfect innings, Bassitt allowed just one run and struck out four M's batters while looking every bit the All Star he was earlier in the season.  In 15 road starts this season, Bassitt is 8-1 even though he has a higher ERA than at home.  Take the Athletics.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St Louis Cardinals.  Brandon Woodruff was a tough-luck loser last week vs. the Cardinals (as a -200 favorite).  Woodruff struck out 10 batters, and allowed just two hits and one run over six innings, but Milwaukee lost 2-1.  We'll take Woodruff to make amends this evening, as the Brewers are 19-12 in his starts after he gave up 1 run or less in his previous outing.  And they're 19-11 in his starts when priced from +125 to -125.  Milwaukee comes into this game off an 8-4 win over the Mets, and is riding a 3-game win streak.  That bodes well for them in this game, as the Brewers are 55-25 off a win by more than 3 runs, and 61-31 this year off a win.  St. Louis' current 16-game win streak is keeping a lid on this price.  In Woodruff's three starts vs. St. Louis this season, Milwaukee was favored -200, -185, and -175.  We'll take the Brewers with their ace, Woodruff, in this near-PK'em game.

At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta.  The Phillies are in a virtual 'must-win' situation tonight, as they sit 2.5 games behind division-leading Atlanta heading into this 3-game series.  The good news for the Phils is that ace Zack Wheeler will be on the mound tonight.  The Cy Young candidate leads the league in innings (206 1/3) and strikeouts (240), and has allowed just 3 runs over his last 4 starts (1.15 ERA).  In his last two starts vs. the Braves this season, Wheeler gave up just 1 run over 15 innings, and struck out 20.  Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has given up 12 runs (6 earned) in 17 2/3 innings vs. the Phillies.  And his career ERA vs. them is 5.53.  Atlanta is a wallet-busting 37-37 (minus 16.4 net games on the moneyline) at home this season, while Philly is 32-31 (+10 net games) as an underdog, and 49-34 (+15.8 net games) off a loss by more than 3 runs.  Take Philadelphia.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees.  The Red Sox bullpen had another meltdown last night, allowing the Yankees to come back and score four runs in the 8th inning to pull off the victory here in Boston.  The Sox can ill afford to do that if they are to secure a Wild Card spot in the coming week.  The Yanks will now go for the three-game road sweep tonight in the series finale -- and the final 2021 regular season game between these two rivals.  It hasn't been the kind of season that LHP Eduardo Rodriguez hoped for.  The veteran Boston southpaw has 11 wins which isn't too shabby, but he also has a 4.97 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 29 starts covering 146 2/3 innings.  But E-Rod will feel a whole lot better about his season if he can help his team win tonight.  The good news is that Rodriguez has been a Yankee-killer this season.  In four 2021 starts vs. pinstripes covering 18 innings, E-Rod is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and even better is the fact that the Red Sox are 4-0 in those starts.  Take Boston.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers come into this game off a blowout, 48-25 win over Atlanta.  That was also the 10th straight win by the Buccaneers dating back to last season.  But defending Super Bowl champs have struggled off blowout wins by 20+ points, and especially on the road vs. non-division foes, as they've covered just 34.3% over the last 42 seasons.  That doesn't bode well for Tom Brady & Co. on Sunday.  Nor does the fact that NFL road favorites, off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 30 points, have covered just 48 of 125 vs. non-division foes.  Take the Rams as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders come into this game off back-to-back upset wins to start the season.  And they've been installed as a home favorite over Miami, which was shutout last week by Buffalo, 35-0.  We'll play on the Dolphins to bounce back in this game, as .500 (or better) single-digit road underdogs are 91-59 ATS in regular season, non-division games since 1980 after failing to cover the spread by more than 14 points in their previous game.  Even better:  the Raiders have been huge money-burners as favorites, as they're 20-39-1 ATS their last 60 as chalk, including 10-33-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a winning ATS record.  The Dolphins are 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS off a loss.  And they're 17-6 ATS their last 23 games as an underdog.  Take Miami + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Denver Broncos.  This is the only match-up this week which pits a 2-0 SU/ATS team vs. an 0-2 SU/ATS team.  Many bettors might rush to the side of the Broncos, given that they will be playing their home opener off two impressive road wins to start the season.  But 2-0 NFL teams have only covered 28% as home favorites over the last 42 years vs. foes off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start!  And home favorites playing their home opener after starting the season with 2 (or more) road games have also been horrible, as they've gone 8-23-2 ATS since 2005 (and 39-61-3 ATS since 1980).  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the New York Giants.  Atlanta has opened the 2021 season with back to back blowout losses -- by 26 to Philly, and by 23 to Tampa Bay.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Falcons here, as a small road underdog.  But consider that, in Week 3, NFL teams that lost their first two games each by 9+ points, and also failed to cover the spread in each game by 9+ points, have covered 70.9% as an underdog in Week 3.  The Giants have covered just one of their last eight games as a non-division favorite.  And they're 25-37-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. non-division foes off a loss, including 4-15-1 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.  Take Atlanta.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Football Team over the Buffalo Bills.  We played on the Bills last week, as it was a perfect "bounce-back" spot following their upset loss in Week 1, as the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  And Buffalo rewarded us with a 35-0 victory.  Unfortunately, NFL teams off shutout wins have covered just 73 of 181 games vs. .333 (or better) foes off a straight-up win, including just 3-23 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Buffalo) scored 35+ points in its shutout victory.  Grab the points with Washington.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  The Colts should be starting QB Carson Wentz this afternoon, and that's enough for us to pull the trigger on Indianapolis as a road underdog.  Indianapolis has a brutal opening schedule this season (the hardest in the NFL), with its first five games against teams with winning records last season (Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens).  The only other team to even come close to this difficult of an opening schedule is the Raiders, who opened with three teams that had winning records last season (Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins).  So, one shouldn't necessarily over-react to the fact that the Colts are 0-2 to start the season.  They'll play their first division contest of 2021 this afternoon when they travel to Nashville to take on the 1-1 Titans, who upset Seattle, 33-30, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Unfortunately for Tennessee, teams off big upset wins over superior teams generally have letdowns when matched up against inferior teams in their next game, as they cover only 40.8% of the time since 1980.  And Tennessee has historically been a poor favorite, as it's 32-53-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Indy is 44-21 ATS off a loss, including 23-8-1 ATS on the road.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over West Virginia.  The #4-ranked Sooners have sandwiched two point spread losses around a 76-0 blowout of Western Carolina.  They'll look to play much better in this -- their Big 12 opener -- than they did last week against Nebraska.  The Sooners were favored by 23 in that game, yet won by just seven, 23-16.  But .500 (or better) Big 12 home favorites of more than 5 points have cashed 64% over the last 42 seasons after failing to cover by more than 14 points in their previous game.  And Oklahoma also falls into a 63% ATS system of mine which plays on certain undefeated teams off ATS defeats.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points with Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Florida.  Last week, the Gators came within two points of upsetting #1-ranked Alabama.  Now, they're favored by a bunch against Tennessee -- a team they've defeated 15 of the last 16 meetings -- but it's a classic letdown spot.  We'll grab the points with the Volunteers, as Florida tends to not bounce back at home vs. SEC foes if Florida lost its previous game.  The Gators are a horrid 9-24-1 ATS in this situation.  Moreover, this is Tennessee's conference opener.  And SEC road underdogs have gone 65-37-1 ATS in their conference opener, provided their opponent wasn't playing with revenge from a loss the previous season.  Take Tennessee + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh has his troops off to a 3-0 SU/ATS start after crushing Northern Illinois, 63-10, last Saturday.  That was the 2nd highest point total by a Wolverines team in the coach Harbaugh era, bettered only by a 78-0 win over these Scarlet Knights in 2016.  Like Michigan, Rutgers is also off to a 3-0 start this season, and is also undefeated ATS.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams that are undefeated -- both SU and ATS -- with a 2-0 (or better) SU/ATS record have burned money as underdogs of +11 (or more) points, as they've covered just 41.2% over the last 42 seasons.  And undefeated teams, off 35-point (or greater) home wins the previous week, have cashed 60% of conference home games since 1980.  Take Michigan to rout Rutgers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Iowa State.  Baylor comes into this game with an undefeated, 3-0 record, after blowing out Kansas last week, 45-7.  For the season, Baylor's outscoring its foes by 35.33 ppg, and that bodes well for it as a home dog on Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 42 seasons, home dogs of +2 (or more) points have covered 67.9% vs. unrested foes, if our home dog's scoring margin was 32+ points per game!  Even better:  Big 12 home underdogs off back to back wins have gone 31-10 ATS in the regular season vs. unrested conference foes not off an ATS loss.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Colorado State.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU/ATS to start the season, and will welcome the Rams to Iowa City on Saturday afternoon.  Colorado State did upset Toledo, 22-6, as a 14.5-point underdog last week, but I don't expect lightning to strike twice in successive weeks.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 0-27 SU and 9-17-1 ATS as road dogs of more than 13 points, if they won outright as a road dog of more than 13 points the previous week (including 1-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins).  And Iowa is a reliable 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS when favored by more than 21 points vs. non-conference foes.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles over Louisville.  The Seminoles have gotten off to an 0-3 start after succumbing, 35-14, at Wake Forest last Saturday.  But we'll take FSU in this match-up against a Louisville team coming into Tallahassee off an upset home win over UCF.  Indeed, NCAA teams are 1-22-1 ATS away from home vs. the Seminoles after winning ATS at home in their previous game, if Florida State was off an ATS loss.  Take Mike Norvell's Seminoles to get into the win column.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Western Michigan.  Both of these teams enter Saturday's game off road wins.  The Spartans went out to Honolulu, and dispatched the Rainbow Warriors, 17-13, while Western Michigan shocked Pittsburgh, 44-41, as a two touchdown underdog.  Each team now stands at 2-1 on the season.  Dating back to November 2017, the Spartans are a fantastic 21-11-2 ATS, while the Broncos are 12-20 ATS.  And Western Michigan is also an awful 1-12 ATS off a point spread cover by 10+ points.  Finally, over the last 42 years, home teams have covered just 32.7% off an upset non-conference win as a road dog of +7 (or more) points, if they were matched up against another non-conference opponent in their current game.  Take the Spartans.