Michigan/Illinois 7:00: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Illinois ranks 334th in the nation from 3-point range at a paltry 31%; moreover, over their last 3 games, they've shot a measly 25.8% from downtown. Michigan is defensively solid, including guarding the perimeter - allowing 32.1%. On the other hand, Illinois is a strong defensive team and has held opponents to just 60.5 PPG on this floor this season. Illinois may be a #9 NCAA Tournament seed heading into this game while Michigan is on the bubble. Both teams need a win here to solidify an at large bid. Look for the defensive intensity to increase. We'll give the edge to Michigan in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call. 

Maryland/Rutgers 6:30: Both of these teams are offensively challenged in the bottom tier of the NCAA in shooting. What separates these teams is Rutgers' strength on the offensive glass and their +4.7-turnover margin. Maryland is not a great rebounding team but not that opportunistic at -1 turnover margin. But both of these teams can flat out play defense. Rutgers a top tier defensive team that's even more stifling at home - allowing just 50.2 PPG. MD, which averages a paltry 61.3 PPG, is 11 points worse on the road. MD, which got pummeled in Michigan on January 1st, is 0-4 O/U off a SU loss of 20+. They're 0-4 O/U last 4 on road. Rutgers is 1-4 O/U vs a winning team above .600. This series has gone under three straight times. "Under" the call. 

Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars showed why they're the #1 FG% defense in the nation vs Arizona. And Villanova is not as good of a shooting team as Arizona. Cougars now 1-4 O/U in their last 5 as an NCAA Tournament favorite. And they're 2-7 O/U overall. 'Cats 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 1-7 O/U on a neutral floor. Both teams well-orchestrated defensively and we'll stay "under". 

TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams are defensively stout but offensively challenged. TCU 4-10 O/U on a neutral floor while Pirates 1-5 O/U neutral. Value with the "under" here. 

Toledo/Ohio 6:00: Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and this game should continue to be high scoring in the series; after all, the last 3 sported totals of 157, 173 and 167, respectively. Rockets are 10-3 O/U on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Bobcats 19-7 O/U in their last 26 at home vs teams with a road wining % above .600. We'll go "over"

Utah/USC 11:30pm: These teams are both well-disciplined on the defensive end. USC's Enfield has his boys holding foes to a smothering 34.4% from the floor and hasn't allowed a single opponent to shoot 40% this season. Utah's first year HC Craig Smith - who came from defensively stout Utah State - has his team allowing just 60 PPG (48th nationally) and guard the perimeter well (24.8% - 4th nationally). Trojans aren't going to light it up from 3 point land for Ellis is their top gun hitting the trey at a 41% clip but averaging around 15 PPG. USC does have the interior presence with Mobley but Utah defense stingy at allowing 38% from floor. And USC can get to the foul line but clanks it at a disappointing 57.7% clip. On the offensive end for Utah, they're more workmanlike than sizzling shooting. 7' C Craig Smith and G Jenkins are key contributors but aren't going to light it up on USC's home floor. USC is 3-8 O/U after allowing less than 50 points in previous game while Utah is 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road tilts. "Under" the call. 

Baylor/Gonzaga 9:20: Gonzaga, the #1 scoring team in the nation (91.6 PPG), has yet to be contained this season. And as good as Baylor's defense is, they will not contain them either; however, Bears are no slouch offensively, dropping 82 PPG (#4 nationally) and sporting the #1 three point shooting % in the nation at a near 43% clip. Baylor surely will not attempt to slow the game down and make it a half court game. Bears and Zags both thrive on turnovers leading to transition and have the personnel to finish at the basket. Timme is a matchup nightmare, and Suggs is big time prime time player along with the other future NBA baller -Kispert. Throw in Ayayi and defensive answers become nearly non-existent. On the other hand, Baylor is equipped with great talent too and they're in great rhythm. Gonzaga may be a step slow after their epic OT clash with UCLA Saturday. Gonzaga a ridiculous 40-18 O/U in their last 58 games. Baylor 14-3 O/U run. It's in the character of these teams to turn it up and with both offenses in great rhythm, we'll stay "over"!

Syracuse/Houston 9:55: Both of these teams are in great defensive rhythm. The Orangemen finally got their zone rotation in sync late; as a matter of fact, they've limited opponents to 72 points or less over their last 6 games. The Houston Cougars, however, control the #2 defense in the nation - allowing 57.6 PPG. Sampson will surely find ways to disrupt red hot coach's son- Buddy Boheim by meeting him half-court to disrupt timing. Grimes, one of Sampson's top defenders could get the task. Nevertheless, two brilliant defensive minds - Boheim vs Sampson should result in a defensive battle.

Syracuse/Virginia 7:00: Boheim has his boys playing well. Historically for Syracuse basketball under Boheim, it starts with defense. When his zone defense starts clicking, Syracuse starts rolling. On a 2-0 SU/ATS including beating their first ranked opponent (V Tech) in a year. The Orangemen have held their last two opponents to a combined 36% from the floor and just 22.2% from the perimeter. We'll look for a carry over to Virginia where this series has totaled 130/129/118 OT in its last three games at John Paul Jones Arena, respectively. Virginia remains a lock down defense ranked #6 in the nation allowing just 59.6 PPG. We'll stay "under" here. 

Kansas State/TCU 9:30: Both of these teams struggle mightily on the offensive end of the floor. You'll find both teams at the bottom of the Big 12 in scoring; on the other hand, defensively is where each team is respectable limiting opposition to roughly 65 PPG. And remember, these teams face some pretty good offensive opposition in the league, including Baylor and Kansas. However, when they face each other, it's usually an ugly defensive battle. Over their last 7 matchups, the average scoring output was 123.3 PPG with a range of 116 to 131. There was an OT game that reached 130 included. With limited offensive weaponry, on a neutral floor in tournament basketball, we'll stay "under". 

Analysis to follow...

Xavier/Providence 6:30: Kind of surprised this "total" is set this low. The last four games in this series played at Providence have averaged 142.5 points with a range of 136 to 153. You throw out the 153 (high) and you still have a significantly higher number in 139 as an average. Xavier most likely won't have one of their solid defenders tonight - Scruggs, which adds some point value. "Over" the call. 

Miss State/S. Carolina 6:30: I see a few more points of value with the "over" here. Both teams are "over" heavy for the season and this series has gone 4-1 O/U over the last 5 meetings. SC HC Martin misses Minaya (thumb) who not only did some good things on the wing offensively but was a very good defender. Miss State has an efficient offense this season under Howland; however, defensively, on the road the Bulldogs have given up 83 (Ole Miss), 77 (Arkansas) and 87 to Texas A&M which incidentally ranks at the bottom of the SEC in scoring. We'll look for a higher scoring game here. 

Texas Tech/Oklahoma 9:00pm: This series has gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 meetings including the earlier season win by TT. It's that time of year when defenses have to lock in and Chris Beard is one of the great defensive minded coaches who will have his men prepared to handle the Sooners' sharp shooters (Doolittle, Manek, Reaves). Oklahoma's HC Kruger no slouch on the defensive side either but personnel has dictated his team's play the last few seasons - more on the offensive; however, Tech not a great shooting team and will need to lock down, create turnovers with transition buckets. Both teams on the plus side in turnover margin and this should be another defensive battle on this neutral floor (Oklahoma City Thunder's floor). "Under' the call. 

Drexel/William & Mary 7:00: Both teams have heavy "under" trends not because of great defense but sluggish outings against good defensive teams in their league. Both of these teams are below average defensively. This series, however, is 2-1 O/U at W&M and this is where the value comes to play. In the last 6 games of this series the range has been 141 to 193 with a mean of 158 PPG. Both teams average around 70 PPG yet struggle on the defensive end. We have a few points value with the "over" here and we'll take it!

analysis to follow...

South Carolina/U Mass 7:00: Both of these teams are offensively challenged to a degree. SC struggles to put up points against winning teams and relies on sound defense, forcing turnovers to manufacture points. Frank Martin doesn't have that gifted go-to scorer. Lawson is the Gamecocks' leading scorer and Kotsar has recently shown promise. The Minutemen rely mostly on G T.J. Weeks to generate points. Both teams guard the 3 point line well at around 27%, yet don't have that pin point accurate 3 point shooter to do any damage in the first place. SC is 2-6 O/U vs the Atlantic 10 and this total is slightly higher than it should be. "Under" the call. 

Dayton/Kansas 5:00: Dayton is the #1 FG% team in the nation shooting a ridiculous 56%. And they've taken on some pretty stiff competition. But defensively, they rank a dismal 282 in the land. Kansas has the talent to match points and can run the floor with the best of them. Kansas 4-1 O/U vs Atlantic 10 whereas Dayton 11-1 O/U in non-conference play. Over the call.

Wichita State/S. Carolina 6:00: Heavy "under" trends on Wichita State as they're locking down opponents to the tune of 58 PPG. The Shockers have not allowed a team to shoot 40% this season. On the flip side, defensive minded South Carolina is holding foes to 59.4 PPG. Martin's boys are once again hustling defensively but offensively challenged. SC shooting just 42% from the floor and a feeble 27% from 3 point range. On the neutral court in Cancun, we'll look for brick city here.