Magic/Cavs 1:00: Defensive intensity picking up in playoffs. In addition, two defensive minded coaches who know each other well. Both teams are solid defensively. However, I'm not buying into the low total. Despite the defensive discipline, these teams managed to go "over" in 4 of the last 6 clashes, including 2-0 O/U in the last 2 in Cleveland. Based on the numbers, I was projecting a total of around 215 and this one comes in under 208. Both offenses are efficient and execute well. Orlando's Suggs, Banchero and Wagner can put up numbers. Cleveland's backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell are very good at penetrating, scoring and kicking out to open perimeter shooters. "Over" the call. 

Warriors/Kings 10:00: Both teams are well disciplined defensively. Both of these teams picked up defensive intensity down the stretch of the regular season. Both of these teams allowed approximately 115 PPG during the season. Over the last 10 games, Warriors allowed an average of 108 PPG while Kings yielded 104 PPG. This playoff series last year went "under" in 4 of 6. And both games in Sacramento combined to average 220. With a play on or go home mentality, "Under" is the smart call here. 

Indiana/MD 2:00: Both of these teams struggle offensively - 12th and 13th in Big Ten offensive production. MD clunks from beyond the arc at 28.2%. Indiana has trouble scoring on the road. Terps do bring defensive intensity and that should be a constant here. Terps are 0-8 O/U at home vs teams with losing records on the road. And 5 of the last 6 in this series has gone "under". We'll stay "under" here. 

Oklahoma/Iowa State 8:00: This is the second game in this season series. Oklahoma took the first one 71-63 in Norman. Iowa State tough to beat at home where they're undefeated this season. Otzelberger's defense allows a stingy 63 PPG. The Cyclones pack the paint often in a man to zone switch at any given instant. Teams that can kick out and hit threes have moderate success. Oklahoma is not a great 3-point shooting team at a 34% clip. On the other hand, Porter Moser is another defensive minded coach who will have his boys schooled to bring optimum intensity. And they guard the perimeter well at 29% - 10th nationally. The last 3 played at Iowa State in this series combined for 122, 129 and 111, respectively. We'll look for both teams to ratchet up the defensive intensity again to stay "under"

Warriors/Jazz 9:10: Both of these teams are coming off losses last night. Utah defense was torched from the perimeter as the LeBron-less Lakers sank 14 of 31 from the perimeter at a 45.2% clip. Now they face the NBA's all-time perimeter scorer who has sunk at least 6 trey bombs in 8 of his last 11 games. And usually before All-Star break teams will dismiss defensive prep - lots of them already checked out for break. Going unrested, I see that magnified tonight. We'll grab the "over"

Heat/Celtics 8:30: Heavy "over" trends for both teams in their respective situations. Heat have gone 'over' in 10 of their last 11 road games. They're also 17-5 O/U on 1 day of rest.  Celtics 11-4 O/U last 15 overall, 4-0 O/U after a 10+ point win, and 12-3 O/U on 1 day of rest. This series is 5-0 O/U in Boston. "Over" it is!

Nuggets/Lakers 8:30: Lakers should be a bit more comfortable back on their home court where they average 117 PPG. Anthony Davis roller coaster performance should continue after coming off a sluggish scoring game. And James most likely won't go 0 of 6 from downtown. Fortunately for the Lakers, Reeves and Hachimura have been fabulous in the playoffs. Walker IV, Schroder and Russell should play well. Denver's Jokic most likely won't be stopped and Murray is clearly back in top form. Lakers 15-5 O/U after scoring 100+ and 15-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. Nuggets 5-1-1 O/U in last 7 road tilts. We'll look for a shootout here. 

Heat/Celtics 8:30: Good value with the "over" in what has been a 4-0 O/U series at TD Garden. Miami sports heavy "over" trends. They're 20-7 O/U in their last 27 games and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 road tilts and 17-4 O/U off a SU win. Boston, 9-3 O/U run, is 9-2 O/U after scoring 100+ and 7-2 O/U after allowing 100+. The Celtics have gone "over" in 9 of their last 12 Conference Finals games. Over the call. 

Celtics/76ers 7:30: These teams are a combined 7-23 O/U in Conference Semifinals games. Both are defensively stout and create turnovers and disciplined in taking away strength of opposition. The "under" is 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings. Still value with the "under".

Michigan/Illinois 7:00: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Illinois ranks 334th in the nation from 3-point range at a paltry 31%; moreover, over their last 3 games, they've shot a measly 25.8% from downtown. Michigan is defensively solid, including guarding the perimeter - allowing 32.1%. On the other hand, Illinois is a strong defensive team and has held opponents to just 60.5 PPG on this floor this season. Illinois may be a #9 NCAA Tournament seed heading into this game while Michigan is on the bubble. Both teams need a win here to solidify an at large bid. Look for the defensive intensity to increase. We'll give the edge to Michigan in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call. 

Wizards/Wolves 8:10: Heavy "over" trends on this one and it being the last game before the All-Star break gives us extra value. These teams are checking out defensively and we'll look for the "over" to hit.

Maryland/Rutgers 6:30: Both of these teams are offensively challenged in the bottom tier of the NCAA in shooting. What separates these teams is Rutgers' strength on the offensive glass and their +4.7-turnover margin. Maryland is not a great rebounding team but not that opportunistic at -1 turnover margin. But both of these teams can flat out play defense. Rutgers a top tier defensive team that's even more stifling at home - allowing just 50.2 PPG. MD, which averages a paltry 61.3 PPG, is 11 points worse on the road. MD, which got pummeled in Michigan on January 1st, is 0-4 O/U off a SU loss of 20+. They're 0-4 O/U last 4 on road. Rutgers is 1-4 O/U vs a winning team above .600. This series has gone under three straight times. "Under" the call. 

Sacramento/Cleveland 7:40: This series is 1-5 O/U in its last 5, including 0-2 O/U at Cleveland. Surely, Donovan Mitchell adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavaliers this season, but he fits in schematically defensively. Cavaliers the #1 defensive team in the NBA allowing 104.9 PPG. Sacramento, on the other hand, is the #2 offensive team in the NBA led by De'aaron Fox. Kings lose ground defensively (allow 116 PPG), however, but defensive minded Brown constantly reinforces defensive technique. Kings are 1-5 O/U on the road vs teams with winning records. Cavs on an 0-6 O/U run and 0-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. We'll stay under here. 

Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Two well-disciplined top 3 defenses been clamping down and the refs have been letting them play; as a result, the 'under' is popping. Tonight, got a line (210) that's dropped in our range and we're going "over". This is the lowest total in this series over the past decade! We'll look for better shooting by Boston and Curry, who rarely has back-to-back bad games, should significantly add to the total. Interesting side bit: Warriors and the Celtics on Thursday are a combined 15-1-1 O/U. "Over" it is. 

Warriors/Celtics 9:00: This series has been softly called by the referees relative to other playoff series. The refs are letting them play. Both teams are defensively stout and make good adjustments. Warriors are 2-6 O/U off a SU loss, 1-4 O/U in their last 5 dog roles, and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss of 10+. This series is 4-12 O/U and 3-7 O/U in Boston. "Under" the call. 

Celtics/Heat 8:30: These teams are very good defensively, but series sports an 11-5 O/U ledger. This total has been dropped down sharply and we're going "over". Celtics 8-3-1 O/U as road chalk. And Heat 8-2 O/U in Conference Finals. "Over" the call. 

Celtics/Heat 8:45: The total for this series is set at its lowest in years. This series has gone 7-3 O/U in its last 10 meetings. Miami had just two poor playoff shooting performances in its last 10 post-season games. They've eclipsed 100 in 8 of last 10. As for Boston, they just had 1 poor playoff scoring performance - May 1st at home vs Milwaukee - in their last 10 playoff outings. Both teams are shooting well and have electric big game players - Tatum for Boston and Butler for Miami - who are stepping up their game and getting the needed bench help. Their defenses are solid but their offensive execution a bit better. These teams are a combined 8-0 O/U in Conference Final games and we're staying "over". 

Bucks/Celtics 7:00: In this playoff series at Boston, both games did not reach 200 points; as a matter of fact, 5 of the last 7 in this series at Boston went "under". Both coaching staffs are well versed on defense and know their roles despite the lineup changes. "Under' the call.

Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Both home games for the Suns in this series went "over". In Dallas, both went "under". We'll go back to the "over" here. Lines-makers adjusted the total down after those two lower scoring games in Dallas. Look for the Suns to turn it up a notch or two tonight. Unlikely Chris Paul will foul out with just 5 points like Game 4. Suns are 11-3 O/U as playoff chalk. Mavs should match the pace. Mavericks 7-2 O/U road and 4-1 O/U as a road dog. "Over" the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars showed why they're the #1 FG% defense in the nation vs Arizona. And Villanova is not as good of a shooting team as Arizona. Cougars now 1-4 O/U in their last 5 as an NCAA Tournament favorite. And they're 2-7 O/U overall. 'Cats 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 1-7 O/U on a neutral floor. Both teams well-orchestrated defensively and we'll stay "under". 

TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams are defensively stout but offensively challenged. TCU 4-10 O/U on a neutral floor while Pirates 1-5 O/U neutral. Value with the "under" here. 

Toledo/Ohio 6:00: Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and this game should continue to be high scoring in the series; after all, the last 3 sported totals of 157, 173 and 167, respectively. Rockets are 10-3 O/U on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Bobcats 19-7 O/U in their last 26 at home vs teams with a road wining % above .600. We'll go "over"

Utah/USC 11:30pm: These teams are both well-disciplined on the defensive end. USC's Enfield has his boys holding foes to a smothering 34.4% from the floor and hasn't allowed a single opponent to shoot 40% this season. Utah's first year HC Craig Smith - who came from defensively stout Utah State - has his team allowing just 60 PPG (48th nationally) and guard the perimeter well (24.8% - 4th nationally). Trojans aren't going to light it up from 3 point land for Ellis is their top gun hitting the trey at a 41% clip but averaging around 15 PPG. USC does have the interior presence with Mobley but Utah defense stingy at allowing 38% from floor. And USC can get to the foul line but clanks it at a disappointing 57.7% clip. On the offensive end for Utah, they're more workmanlike than sizzling shooting. 7' C Craig Smith and G Jenkins are key contributors but aren't going to light it up on USC's home floor. USC is 3-8 O/U after allowing less than 50 points in previous game while Utah is 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road tilts. "Under" the call. 

Suns/Clippers 9:00: As expected in Game 5, shots that were bricking in Game 4 found their way in the basket in Game 5 to go "over" the adjusted down over/under (215). Tonight, back in Los Angeles where this series has gone 2-8 O/U. Now 5 of the last 7 in the series went "under". And Game 5 seemed like an easy "over" throughout 3.5 quarters but stalled out late to create a sweat. In Los Angeles, the last three games total output has accumulated 213, 198 and 164 respectively. Got some wiggle room with the total and considering the history of the scrums in this series in LA and that the Suns are 0-4 O/U off a SU loss, we'll stay "under".

Clippers/Suns 9:05: Game 4 numbers were ugly. Suns were clanking to the tune of 36% from floor and 20% from 3 point range. That was good enough to whip a Clippers team shooting a brick laying 33%/16% and a disgraceful 66% from the free throw line considering they were #1 in free throw shooting % during regular season. Tonight, let's look for those rim rollers to align in the net; after all, this series has gone 10-4 O/U in Phoenix. And the 'total' has now dropped to a reachable 214. We'll look for the Clippers as the #1 three point shooting team in the NBA to play more relaxed. Phoenix should maintain their groove on their home floor. "Over" the call. 

Nets/Bucks 7:30: Nets shot the lights out on their home floor in Game 1 and 2; unfortunately for Milwaukee, they couldn't keep up. Consequently, with four straight going "under" in this series, oddsmakers adjusted this 'total' to lowest level since August 4th, 2020 (230). On that day in Milwaukee, the teams combined for 235. Let's remember, in the regular season, Milwaukee controlled the #1 offensive output in the NBA at 120 PPP. They didn't forget how to manufacture points. They've had a few days to digest the loss and find ways to attack a Brooklyn defense that has its share of weaknesses (21st in league). The Milwaukee brick laying from the perimeter should cease tonight in their comfortable confines. Bucks 36-16 O/U on 2 days rest. "Over" it is. 

Nuggets/Suns 9:30: This series has gone 6-1 O/U in the last 7 meetings and 6-0 O/U last 6 in Phoenix. Nuggets faded down the stretch of Game 1 but Malone should use his bench better late tonight. We'll look for newly crowned MVP Jokic to turn up his game after mediocre (to his standard) performance in Game 1. Of course he'll need supporting help and will need Porter Jr. and someone else to hit shots consistently. we'll bet they do. Suns continue with great offensive chemistry after coming off series against a number 1 defense (Lakers) and Paul seems like his shoulder is getting better. We'll stay on the "over" here. 

Analysis to follow...

Nets/Celtics 8:35: Brooklyn defense, #21 ranked in the regular season, turned up its intensity in post season in two blowout wins. Brooklyn is 0-5 O/U after scoring 100+, and they're 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road trips. Boston 1-5 O/U as a playoff dog and 1-4 O/U after allowing 100+. As a home dog, Boston 5-11 O/U. We'll look for this one to stay "under".

Analysis to follow...

Grizzlies/Jazz 9:35: Grizzlies pulled out a huge OT win at Golden State on Friday. And that was without the services of big man Jonas who fouled out in 4th. Morant was huge and he's getting good support from multiple Grizzlies. Utah, of course, is tough defensively and pack a strong offense. And throw in the added services of Donovan Mitchell (ankle), who should be on limited minutes, and former Grizzly - Conley who's back in the fray, and the well rested Jazz should run the floor tonight in the high altitude to tire out the Grizzlies. This series is set at its lowest 'total' in a while at Utah. This series is 5-0 O/U at Utah and we'll go "over". 

Baylor/Gonzaga 9:20: Gonzaga, the #1 scoring team in the nation (91.6 PPG), has yet to be contained this season. And as good as Baylor's defense is, they will not contain them either; however, Bears are no slouch offensively, dropping 82 PPG (#4 nationally) and sporting the #1 three point shooting % in the nation at a near 43% clip. Baylor surely will not attempt to slow the game down and make it a half court game. Bears and Zags both thrive on turnovers leading to transition and have the personnel to finish at the basket. Timme is a matchup nightmare, and Suggs is big time prime time player along with the other future NBA baller -Kispert. Throw in Ayayi and defensive answers become nearly non-existent. On the other hand, Baylor is equipped with great talent too and they're in great rhythm. Gonzaga may be a step slow after their epic OT clash with UCLA Saturday. Gonzaga a ridiculous 40-18 O/U in their last 58 games. Baylor 14-3 O/U run. It's in the character of these teams to turn it up and with both offenses in great rhythm, we'll stay "over"!

Syracuse/Houston 9:55: Both of these teams are in great defensive rhythm. The Orangemen finally got their zone rotation in sync late; as a matter of fact, they've limited opponents to 72 points or less over their last 6 games. The Houston Cougars, however, control the #2 defense in the nation - allowing 57.6 PPG. Sampson will surely find ways to disrupt red hot coach's son- Buddy Boheim by meeting him half-court to disrupt timing. Grimes, one of Sampson's top defenders could get the task. Nevertheless, two brilliant defensive minds - Boheim vs Sampson should result in a defensive battle.

Syracuse/Virginia 7:00: Boheim has his boys playing well. Historically for Syracuse basketball under Boheim, it starts with defense. When his zone defense starts clicking, Syracuse starts rolling. On a 2-0 SU/ATS including beating their first ranked opponent (V Tech) in a year. The Orangemen have held their last two opponents to a combined 36% from the floor and just 22.2% from the perimeter. We'll look for a carry over to Virginia where this series has totaled 130/129/118 OT in its last three games at John Paul Jones Arena, respectively. Virginia remains a lock down defense ranked #6 in the nation allowing just 59.6 PPG. We'll stay "under" here. 

Lakers/Heat 9:00: Heat should have Adebayo back on the floor today. He gives the Heat energy on both ends of the floor. He's a pretty strong finisher on the glass. Lakers were a bit sluggish in Game 3 and should deliver sustainable energy for the duration here. Lakers are 9-3 O/U off a SU loss. Heat 9-4 O/U off a win of 10+ and 5-2 O/U as a dog. This playoff series has a range of 214 to 238. Based on the trends, we'll look for this one to be on the higher side of the range tonight.

Mavericks/Clippers 9:00: On the surface, these teams look to light up the scoreboard as they did in the first matchup August 3rd putting up 237 points; however, this series has gone just 2-3 O/U in its last 5 meetings and tonight pits two defensive minded coaches come playoff time. They've had time to scout strengths and weaknesses. Carlisle and Rivers should find ways to keep their opposing stars off balance. Mavericks are just 2-5 O/U on 3+ days rest. LA 2-8 O/U as a favorite. "Under" the call. 

Kansas State/TCU 9:30: Both of these teams struggle mightily on the offensive end of the floor. You'll find both teams at the bottom of the Big 12 in scoring; on the other hand, defensively is where each team is respectable limiting opposition to roughly 65 PPG. And remember, these teams face some pretty good offensive opposition in the league, including Baylor and Kansas. However, when they face each other, it's usually an ugly defensive battle. Over their last 7 matchups, the average scoring output was 123.3 PPG with a range of 116 to 131. There was an OT game that reached 130 included. With limited offensive weaponry, on a neutral floor in tournament basketball, we'll stay "under". 

Analysis to follow...

Xavier/Providence 6:30: Kind of surprised this "total" is set this low. The last four games in this series played at Providence have averaged 142.5 points with a range of 136 to 153. You throw out the 153 (high) and you still have a significantly higher number in 139 as an average. Xavier most likely won't have one of their solid defenders tonight - Scruggs, which adds some point value. "Over" the call. 

Miss State/S. Carolina 6:30: I see a few more points of value with the "over" here. Both teams are "over" heavy for the season and this series has gone 4-1 O/U over the last 5 meetings. SC HC Martin misses Minaya (thumb) who not only did some good things on the wing offensively but was a very good defender. Miss State has an efficient offense this season under Howland; however, defensively, on the road the Bulldogs have given up 83 (Ole Miss), 77 (Arkansas) and 87 to Texas A&M which incidentally ranks at the bottom of the SEC in scoring. We'll look for a higher scoring game here. 

Texas Tech/Oklahoma 9:00pm: This series has gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 meetings including the earlier season win by TT. It's that time of year when defenses have to lock in and Chris Beard is one of the great defensive minded coaches who will have his men prepared to handle the Sooners' sharp shooters (Doolittle, Manek, Reaves). Oklahoma's HC Kruger no slouch on the defensive side either but personnel has dictated his team's play the last few seasons - more on the offensive; however, Tech not a great shooting team and will need to lock down, create turnovers with transition buckets. Both teams on the plus side in turnover margin and this should be another defensive battle on this neutral floor (Oklahoma City Thunder's floor). "Under' the call. 

Drexel/William & Mary 7:00: Both teams have heavy "under" trends not because of great defense but sluggish outings against good defensive teams in their league. Both of these teams are below average defensively. This series, however, is 2-1 O/U at W&M and this is where the value comes to play. In the last 6 games of this series the range has been 141 to 193 with a mean of 158 PPG. Both teams average around 70 PPG yet struggle on the defensive end. We have a few points value with the "over" here and we'll take it!

analysis to follow...

Clippers/Bucks 8:35: This series has gone "over" in 4 of the last 5 contests; moreover, 5-0 O/U at Milwaukee. Clippers gladly run with teams who like to run. Clippers are 7-1 O/U vs teams above .500. With all of the top guns healthy locked, loaded and well rested, we'll look for this one to bust "over" the total. 

South Carolina/U Mass 7:00: Both of these teams are offensively challenged to a degree. SC struggles to put up points against winning teams and relies on sound defense, forcing turnovers to manufacture points. Frank Martin doesn't have that gifted go-to scorer. Lawson is the Gamecocks' leading scorer and Kotsar has recently shown promise. The Minutemen rely mostly on G T.J. Weeks to generate points. Both teams guard the 3 point line well at around 27%, yet don't have that pin point accurate 3 point shooter to do any damage in the first place. SC is 2-6 O/U vs the Atlantic 10 and this total is slightly higher than it should be. "Under" the call. 

Dayton/Kansas 5:00: Dayton is the #1 FG% team in the nation shooting a ridiculous 56%. And they've taken on some pretty stiff competition. But defensively, they rank a dismal 282 in the land. Kansas has the talent to match points and can run the floor with the best of them. Kansas 4-1 O/U vs Atlantic 10 whereas Dayton 11-1 O/U in non-conference play. Over the call.

Wichita State/S. Carolina 6:00: Heavy "under" trends on Wichita State as they're locking down opponents to the tune of 58 PPG. The Shockers have not allowed a team to shoot 40% this season. On the flip side, defensive minded South Carolina is holding foes to 59.4 PPG. Martin's boys are once again hustling defensively but offensively challenged. SC shooting just 42% from the floor and a feeble 27% from 3 point range. On the neutral court in Cancun, we'll look for brick city here. 

Warriors/Raptors 9:07: These teams should be loose and come out firing. Warriors have experienced virtually every kind of post-season situation and their veteran presence will surely keep them from being shaken and stiff. And if KD (calf) plays, all the better for adding a bit more offense. As for Toronto, they'll surely feel comfortable in their confines and play relaxed but with urgency. Toronto has surely found a winning formula on both sides of the ball; however, Warriors have too many weapons along with smart coachable good shooters. Remember, this is the #1 offense in the NBA and holding them under 100 rarely happens let alone twice! Warriors are 6-1-1 O/U on the road vs teams with winning home records. And this series sports a 9-3 O/U run; moreover, 6-0 O/U in Toronto. I projected this total to be set around 215 so getting anything under that is a gift. Over the call. 

Warriors/Raptors 8:07: These teams like to push the tempo and when the shots are falling and fouls are called, "over" is the outcome. This series has now gone "over" in 5 straight at Toronto. Expect another high scoring game. Post season success story Siakam continues to torch the net while Gasol is getting back his confidence and VanVleet remains the best bench scoring player. Golden State's depth is thin; consequently, they likely won't be able to sustain defensive dominance to stop some Toronto transition and avoid fouls. And by Leonard standards, he did not have a good game as he was hounded by virtually every Warrior body throughout the game. On the other hand, Warriors' Curry was the only major scoring threat. That is not the Warriors way of doing things. We'll look for more scoring contributions from the bench and starters - Thompson and Green. 7 of the last 9 in this series have gone "over" and I see another high scoring affair. 

Warriors/Rockets 9:00: This series has gone 8-20 O/U in Houston. Warriors will be without leading playoff scorer -Durant - who is producing 29% of the Warriors' post-season points. Not only that, he's their best defender on Harden. Most likely Iguodala (2nd best on Harden) gets the job. A comfortable Rockets win should limit late game fouls that result in free throws. Even with the 6 point "total" adjustment, still fair value with the "under". 

Warriors/Rockets 9:35: Up until Saturday, this series in its last four at Houston averaged roughly 197 combined points. Saturday, buckets were landing with both teams shooting over 40% from the floor and 3 point range. Not only that, these teams stepped up to the charity stripe a combined 55 times. Had it not gone into OT, it would have been a sweat but "over" was the definitive call of the night. Tonight, look for more of what the history of these teams at this location has materialized: lower scoring. 8-20 O/U in Houston!

Warriors/Rockets 8:35: Surprised this total is set this high at this venue. Over the last 4 games in this series at Houston, the combined point output average is 197 with the high end of the range at 210. This series has gone 2-9 O/U in its last 11 and 7-20 O/U in its last 27 played in Houston. Game 2 should have gone "under" 221 with strange sequences developing in final seconds. We'll press the "under" hard here. 

Blazers/Nuggets 9:05: Field goals were dropping relatively easy in Game 1 with Blazers shooting 52% from the floor and 38% from beyond the arc. Nuggets shot a solid 51% from floor and 41% from 3 point range. Collectively, 58 free throw attempts with Portland converting at 71% and Denver at 84%. Malone was not happy with the defensive effort and Denver should tighten up, especially on Kanter - who went off despite a bad shoulder. And Portland had no answer for Jokic. Nuggets are 4-13 O/U at home and 7-20 O/U after opponent allows 100+; moreover, they're 7-18 O/U after allowing 100+. With this series going "over" for 5 straight, percentages should swing to the "under" here. 

Spurs/Nuggets 10:05: This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver and believe it will stay Under tonight. Popovich knows Jokic is biggest trouble to team and will have to make adjustments to him first and PG Murray second. And Popovich disciple Malone should clean up defensive mistakes made in Game 6; after all, Spurs are not that dangerous of scoring team on the road. Spurs are also 3-9 O/U in their last 11 road tilts. They're also 7-17 O/U after scoring 100+ points. Nuggets are 3-12 O/U in their last 15 at home and 7-21 O/U after allowing 100+. We'll look for more of a defensive game tonight.

Liberty/Virginia Tech 7:10: Both teams sporting top 10 defenses in the nation; however, "total" posted a bit low for this one. Keep in mind, Tech has Justin Robinson back - who before foot injury was leading scorer and offensive facilitator for the Hokies. He contributed 9 points in limited time on Friday as the offensive go-to-key handed to Alexander-Walker; nevertheless, Robinson adds quality offensive minutes in contributing to a team that shoots the 3 ball well. And Liberty's Homesley went off on a pretty good defensive team in Mississippi State. We'll look for Buzz Williams to push the tempo a bit against Liberty and put this one "over". 

Analysis to follow...

Kansas State/TCU 9:00: This series has gone 0-4 O/U in its last 4 matchups. Both of these teams badly need a win but in different ways. K State, most assuredly in NCAA tourney, is looking to win final two conference games to finally win, or have a share of, Big 12 Conference Title. The Wildcats have been winning all season on defensive play - as evidenced by their #4 ranking in the nation in scoring defense at 59.5 PPG. Coach Weber will look to clamp down on the slumping Horned Frogs which over their last 5 games have fallen off about 3.5 PPG in scoring production from their regular season average. Dixon has always preached defensive intensity and currently disgusted by recent defensive play. TCU is clearly on the bubble and desperately needs a win here. Defensive intensity should be ratcheted up against the 321st scoring offense in the nation at 65.9 PPG. TCU is 1-4 O/U following a double-digit loss at home and 3-7 O/U at home vs a team with a winning road record. "Under" the call. 

Duke/Virginia Tech 7:00: This series has gone "under" in 13 of the last 16 meetings. Both of these coaches instruct defensive discipline well in terms of not giving up easy buckets or transition points. VTech has not been the same in offensive production since Justin Robinson went down. Although Alexander-Walker and Blackshear try to pick up the scoring slack, they lack that ability to manufacturer instant offense when needed. Duke, 6-18-2 O/U in their last 26 games and 1-5-1 O/U in their last 7 road tilts, miss Zion Williamson's 22 PPG. His athleticism made it almost a sure thing in scoring near the basket, out in transition and from the perimeter. Tonight, less transition basketball and limited perimeter production.

Houston/U Conn 7:00: Looking for a lower scoring game as the Cougars just smothering opponents with one of the top defenses in the country. Huskies 1-7 O/U at home vs a road team with a winning % above. .600. Huskies do play pretty good defense at home allowing just 65 PPG and limit 3 point shooting to 31%. Cougars allow an even stingier 62 PPG on the road and boast one of the best FG% defenses in the country. They're also #3 in perimeter defense. "Under" the call. 

Virginia/North Carolina 7:00: I'm going to look for the #1 defense in the nation to dictate this game and keep the scoring down. 16-38-1 O/U on the road for Virginia and this series is 2-6 O/U in North Carolina. 

Cincinnati/Houston 4:00: I've had success betting on both of these teams this season and would lean on the Bearcats getting points in a projected defensive battle. Cincinnati highly dependent on big time guard Jarron Cumberland (23 ppg last 7). Other than him, Bearcats struggle to manufacturer points, especially from the perimeter. And Houston's defense (ranked 7th in the nation) is 3rd in the nation defending the perimeter. I do like the fact that Cincinnati is in good hands when Justin Jenifer controls the ball. He sports a 73/15 assist/turnover ratio. Bearcats control the 11th ranked defense in the nation and do not give up easy buckets. This series is 1-8 O/U in its last 9 meetings and has yet to break 132 combined points in recent times at Houston. Bearcats 11-40-1 O/U on the road. Under the call. 

Golden State/Houston 9:05: This series' total has dropped sharply from its peak at 237.5 during the regular season and 226.6 in Game 3 of this playoff series. I feel the drastic drop gives us value with the "under". Sure, turnovers in Game 6, and there were plenty (33) played a part in a running clock without points. I'm going to look for Houston to clean up its game; at the same time, I believe more fouls will occur as the intensity shifts to a playoff high. Rockets 7-3 O/U off a loss of 10+. Over it is.

Warriors/Pelicans 6:35: New Orleans is ranked in the bottom tier of the NBA defensively yet held Golden State in Game 3 to 38% from the floor and 28% from 3 point range; however, GS still managed to hit the century mark. These teams get many shot opportunities off because of their frenetic pace. Tonight, we'll look for the Warriors' offensive numbers to improve dramatically. Durant, Curry and Green should pick up their game. New Orleans has nice rhythm to their offense - that's been going on since mid April. GS, the #1 offense in the NBA, will be on track yet will surely give up their share of points. This series is 4-1 O/U its last 5 matchups. With the 'total' tightening a bit off a rare "under", we'll go back on the "over" here.

Cleveland/Toronto 6:05: Four of the last five in this series has gone "over", and four of the last five in this series played at Toronto have gone "over". Tonight, I still see value with the "over". LeBron, by his own high playoff standard, did not have a good shooting day (12 of 30 and 1 of 8 from 3 pt. range); fortunately, Korver, Thompson and JR Smith stepped up their game to provide the needed points to carry the Cavaliers forward. Tonight, James, who rarely has bad back to back games, should be back on the mark while the streaky Korver and Smith should continue their shooting success. And if Kevin Love, who got moved to the 5 spot from the 4, gets out of his slump, surely more added gravy. He has trouble handling Jonas V. in the low post but creates a mismatch on the offensive end with his shooting range. As for Toronto, they got in to a panic mode late and their offense suffered down the stretch. Toronto has fed off the home crowd virtually all season and should keep their foot on the gas peddle tonight. Raptors 7-1 O/U in last 8 semi-final games. 

Bucks/Celtics 7:05: This total is set down a few points further than expected considering this series has gone "over" in six straight games; moreover, in those games, each team reached the century mark in points except one time - Boston (92) at Milwaukee on 4/20. I like the odds of this game going "over" today, for Celtics have moved on from Kyrie Irving's loss with good backcourt play from Rozier and Brown. Heavy "over" trends are popping up in this series, including 12-1 O/U in this series at Boston. "Over" it is!

Jazz/Lakers 6:05: Was at the Lakers game on Friday and watched LA artificially move out to an eight point lead against a sleep walking Minnesota team that didn't take advantage of matchup advantages and open looks around the basket; however, in the second half the T-Wolves did and ran away with it. Offensively, the Lakers were turnover prone and very inconsistent in shooting. And with Kuzma (ankle) most likely to be out, no real scoring threat on this Lakers team against one of NBA's better defensive teams. Moreover, without a true point guard (Ball out) running the show, the Lakers will be in deep trouble running their offense behind Caruso, Ennis or Payton II. On the other hand, the Jazz most likely won't have Rubio (hamstring) running the offense and he's established a nice ebb and flow to the offense this season. It could be a bit out of rhythm without him. Lakers are 1-4 O/U after allowing 100+, 2-5 O/U at home. Jazz are 3-11 O/U on 2 days rest. This series at LA has been lower scoring (hasn't exceeded 208 points) since 2015. Under the call. 

Cavaliers/76ers 7:05: Both teams playing well down the stretch but should run out of gas on the scoring end tonight; after all, Cleveland, which made a dramatic double-digit deficit comeback late last night, is 1-11 O/U in the second of back to back games. Philadelphia, which has won 12 straight, is 2-10 O/U against teams above .500 and 1-5 O/U on Fridays. Despite the loss of Embiid, Philadelphia bench producing on both ends of the floor. This series is 5-16 O/U and 2-8 O/U in Philadelphia. These teams are jockeying for that #3 playoff seeding in the East and should put force a solid defensive effort. Lots of value on "under".