Heat/Celtics 8:30: Heavy "over" trends for both teams in their respective situations. Heat have gone 'over' in 10 of their last 11 road games. They're also 17-5 O/U on 1 day of rest.  Celtics 11-4 O/U last 15 overall, 4-0 O/U after a 10+ point win, and 12-3 O/U on 1 day of rest. This series is 5-0 O/U in Boston. "Over" it is!

Nuggets/Lakers 8:30: Lakers should be a bit more comfortable back on their home court where they average 117 PPG. Anthony Davis roller coaster performance should continue after coming off a sluggish scoring game. And James most likely won't go 0 of 6 from downtown. Fortunately for the Lakers, Reeves and Hachimura have been fabulous in the playoffs. Walker IV, Schroder and Russell should play well. Denver's Jokic most likely won't be stopped and Murray is clearly back in top form. Lakers 15-5 O/U after scoring 100+ and 15-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. Nuggets 5-1-1 O/U in last 7 road tilts. We'll look for a shootout here. 

Heat/Celtics 8:30: Good value with the "over" in what has been a 4-0 O/U series at TD Garden. Miami sports heavy "over" trends. They're 20-7 O/U in their last 27 games and 9-1 O/U in their last 10 road tilts and 17-4 O/U off a SU win. Boston, 9-3 O/U run, is 9-2 O/U after scoring 100+ and 7-2 O/U after allowing 100+. The Celtics have gone "over" in 9 of their last 12 Conference Finals games. Over the call. 

Celtics/76ers 7:30: These teams are a combined 7-23 O/U in Conference Semifinals games. Both are defensively stout and create turnovers and disciplined in taking away strength of opposition. The "under" is 1-4 O/U in the last 5 meetings. Still value with the "under".

Michigan/Illinois 7:00: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Illinois ranks 334th in the nation from 3-point range at a paltry 31%; moreover, over their last 3 games, they've shot a measly 25.8% from downtown. Michigan is defensively solid, including guarding the perimeter - allowing 32.1%. On the other hand, Illinois is a strong defensive team and has held opponents to just 60.5 PPG on this floor this season. Illinois may be a #9 NCAA Tournament seed heading into this game while Michigan is on the bubble. Both teams need a win here to solidify an at large bid. Look for the defensive intensity to increase. We'll give the edge to Michigan in a lower scoring game. "Under" the call. 

Wizards/Wolves 8:10: Heavy "over" trends on this one and it being the last game before the All-Star break gives us extra value. These teams are checking out defensively and we'll look for the "over" to hit.

Chargers/Jaguars 8:15: Jaguars' offense is cooking under Lawrence and don't believe the Chargers' defense can slow them down here. At the same time, Herbert may be without matchup nightmare WR Williams (back) but he's an elite QB who makes good receivers even better. Palmer, Carter and TE Everett have elevated their game this season. And Ekeler and Keenan Allen are outstanding go-to weapons. Don't see Jaguars shutting them down like in Game 3. Staley 5-1 O/U w/ revenge. "Over" the call. 

Maryland/Rutgers 6:30: Both of these teams are offensively challenged in the bottom tier of the NCAA in shooting. What separates these teams is Rutgers' strength on the offensive glass and their +4.7-turnover margin. Maryland is not a great rebounding team but not that opportunistic at -1 turnover margin. But both of these teams can flat out play defense. Rutgers a top tier defensive team that's even more stifling at home - allowing just 50.2 PPG. MD, which averages a paltry 61.3 PPG, is 11 points worse on the road. MD, which got pummeled in Michigan on January 1st, is 0-4 O/U off a SU loss of 20+. They're 0-4 O/U last 4 on road. Rutgers is 1-4 O/U vs a winning team above .600. This series has gone under three straight times. "Under" the call. 

Iowa/Kentucky Noon: Two sluggish offenses but rock-solid defenses collide early. These offenses were pedestrian with their starting QBs Petras and Will Levis. Today, Iowa will have third stringer Joe Labas run the offense. Petras (shoulder surgery) is out and 2nd stringer Padilla went into the transfer portal. Kentucky's overrated QB Will Levis is opting out to prep for NFL. And the Wildcats' lead back - Chris Rodriquez (904 yards) also opted out for the NFL draft prep. These teams met January 1st, 2022 at full strength and slothed to a 20-17 Kentucky win. They ran the ball a combined 75 times! Today, more of the same with less athleticism offensively. Iowa's defense allows just 14.4 PPG. Kentucky's defense is a Top 20 unit. We won't fear the low set total. Points will be at a premium here with the lack of explosive plays. We'll stay under in a defensive battle. 

Analysis to follow...

Coastal Carolina/ECU 6:45: Both of these teams have similar explosive offenses and similar yielding defenses. Both record setting QBs - McCall for CC and Ahlers for ECU - are playing. McCall is essentially showcasing his ability as he enters the transfer portal. Both defenses allow 412 YPG and around 30 PPG. CC will have their DC Staggs as their interim HC as Chadwell is off to Liberty. CC has one of their best players - LB Josiah Stewart - out. He's opted to go to Michigan. Look for a shootout here. These teams are a combined 9-1 O/U in December. CC is 10-4 O/U vs non-conference foes and ECU is 5-0 O/U after producing 450+ yards. "Over" it is. 

Packers/Dolphins 1:00: Both teams still alive for a playoff spot. Look for fireworks on the offensive side. QB Rodgers is getting in rhythm with his young receivers, including Christian Watson. Miami defense has given up lots of yards through the air (lower tier of NFL) and points (nearly 25 ppg - 27th in NFL). On the other hand, Dolphins got their run game going last week with Mostert leading the way (136 yards). And GB defense has been vulnerable to the run (149 YPG - 29th in NFL). Effective running game will surely open the lanes for Waddle and Hill. GB has heavy "over" trends while Miami is on a 5-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. 

Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. 

Jaguars/Jets 8:15: This series has gone "over" 5 straight and "over" in 5 of the last 6 overall. I projected about a 39 or 40 'total' for tonight based on the inclement weather, defensive prowess of the Jets, and lack of offense by the Jets. Therefore, a few points of value with the "over" here. Both teams have had turnover issues - which leads to sudden change points. Jaguars have cleaned their turnovers up over their winning streak as Lawrence has been razor sharp as the offense is humming. Jets' offense stuck in neutral with Wilson at QB but did gut the Jaguars last year on the ground with 273 yards rushing en route to 26-21 win on this field. Jax is 8-1 O/U in their last 9 road games and 4-0 O/U in their last 4 overall. They're also 5-0 O/U in December. We'll go "over". 

Panthers/Seahawks 4:25: Going into this season, Seahawks' Carroll was 2-10 O/U as a favorite vs a less than .500 foe. That trend has flipped this year as the Seahawks are 3-0 O/U as chalk vs losing teams. Seahawks' defense in mid-October through mid-November actually did well keeping teams out of the end zone. Over the last few weeks, however, they're giving up chunks of yards on the ground resulting in scoring drives. Carolina has a good one in D'Onta Foreman (4.5 YPC). Good possibility he'll help open the pass game for resurging QB Darnold who showed promise last week vs a very good Denver defense. On the other hand, Seahawks' #9 ranked offense is finding the end zone this season. RB depth is questionable Geno Smith still has the explosive receiving weaponry to torch secondaries and Carolina's is a middle of the road one, if that. This series has gone 6-0 O/U in its last 6 meetings and 6-0 O/U in Seattle. Panthers are 5-0 O/U last 5 road vs teams with winning home records. "Over" it is. 

Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. 

Sacramento/Cleveland 7:40: This series is 1-5 O/U in its last 5, including 0-2 O/U at Cleveland. Surely, Donovan Mitchell adds a new offensive dimension to the Cavaliers this season, but he fits in schematically defensively. Cavaliers the #1 defensive team in the NBA allowing 104.9 PPG. Sacramento, on the other hand, is the #2 offensive team in the NBA led by De'aaron Fox. Kings lose ground defensively (allow 116 PPG), however, but defensive minded Brown constantly reinforces defensive technique. Kings are 1-5 O/U on the road vs teams with winning records. Cavs on an 0-6 O/U run and 0-6 O/U after opponent scores 100+. We'll stay under here. 

Raiders/Rams 8:15: This series is 1-4 O/U. Rams are 8-17 O/U in last 25 home games. McVay 2-9 O/U at home off SU/ATS loss. We'll stay "under". 

Bengals/Titans 1:00: Both of these offenses have gotten into rhythm. Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last few games as the Bengals dropped 42 and 37 on the Panthers and the Steelers, respectively. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been sharp over the last few games as well. Bengals' defense is yielding. Titans are 12-5-1 O/U after accumulating 250+ passing yards previously, and they're 11-5 O/U in November; moreover. Titans are 10-0 O/U at home vs .600 or less non division opponent. Bengals 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 30+. "Over" the call. 

Patriots/Vikings 8:20: Both of these teams have had their share of problems converting in the red zone. For the Patriots, with Josh McDaniels no longer coordinating the offense, they're reaching the goal line a poor 42.86% of the time - 31st in NFL just below the Broncos.  And over the last 3 weeks, Vikings converting in the red zone just 33.3% of the time. Patriots' defense remains solid against non-running QBs and we're most likely seeing more FG attempts instead of end zone dancing. Pats 3-14 O/U after scoring less than 15 points and 2-7 O/U in November. This series has gone 1-5 O/U in its last 6 meetings, and we'll stay "under" here. 

Analysis to follow...

Panthers/Bengals 1:00:  Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". 

Bears/Patriots 8:15: Both of these teams have been turnover laden this season (combined 21 turnovers between them). And defensively, they are both opportunistic with a combined 17. The sloppy and cold Foxborough should dictate a ball control offensive attack with few, if any, explosive plays. And Fields has Mooney as his only vertical threat. Surely, Belichick will see to it that he's locked down. Patriots an amazing 1-13 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than 1 point. Bears 1-10 O/U vs non-conference opponent with line >40 points. "Under" the call.  

Jets/Broncos 4:05: Both teams bring top tier defenses to the field that play hard and create turnovers. It just so happens that the Jets' offense is turnover prone (9) and the Broncos' offense is stuck in neutral (32nd in scoring points). QB Brett Rypien will start in place of the injured Russell Wilson; consequently, Saleh and the Jets are salivating. Jets are 1-8 O/U off a SU win of 14+, and they're 5-11 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. Broncos on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-7 O/U off a SU loss. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver including the last 3. "Under" the call. 

Houston/Memphis 7:30: Both of these teams showing signs of regression. For Memphis, they've gradually leveled off in the win column since Mike Norvell left after the 2019 season. Silverfield stepped in the defense went south along with the wins. Houston, which was a pre-season pick to win the American Athletic, has played in 3 straight OT games, losing two. Penalties and sloppy plays late have been led to major sideline blowups by HC Holgorsen. Fortunately for both teams, their offenses are productive. Defensively, however, has been ugly. Memphis allows 288 ypg through the air, which is 133rd in the nation. Last year, Houston ran all over them controlling the clock by +9 minutes. Sure, Temple was held to 3 points last week; however, Owls are 122nd in offensive production and average a paltry 15 PPG this season. As for Houston, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allow a whopping 34 PPG (117th nationally). Memphis QB Henigan can sling it and should have a big day. Tigers are 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games. This series is 4-1 O/U in its last 5. "Over" the call. 

Browns/Falcons 1:00: These teams are a combined 6-0 O/U this season. We won't fear the higher than normal 'total' for this series and go "over". Falcons' defense most likely won't have an answer to stop the #1 rush offense in the NFL. And Atlanta's secondary leaves a lot to be desired; consequently, efficient pass Brissett should be able to guide the Browns' offense in the end zone often. The Falcons have given up a generous 27 PPG but they have 7 takeaways - which translate into points. On the other hand, Browns' defense missing key bookends - Garrett and Clowney. That's significant for giving Mariota a second more in the pocket to hook up with his array of weapons including Drake London, Patterson and Pitts. Browns' defense has been yielding - allowing 24 PPG. These teams are collectively 13-5 O/U in Week 4. "Over" it is!

West Virginia/Virginia Tech 7:30: Blacksburg is a tough place to play for a visiting team. Hokies' defensive minded HC Brent Pry wants to win with tough defense, establishing an effective run game and limiting turnovers. His defense has been solid thus far but not opportunistic (1 takeaway). And Pry will take a conservative approach with his QB Wells (22 INTs/22 TDs in career) to carry out his game plan. On the other hand, WV QB J.T. Daniels is a more accomplished QB with great poise in the pocket. But WV at their best when run game is cooking. So far, Tech run stop unit is outstanding - allowing 40.7 YPG (5th nationally). Hokies 0-7 O/U in September football and this series is 1-5-1 O/U in its last 7 meetings. We'll stay "under". 

Northwestern/Nebraska 12:30 pm: Both of these teams' offenses I expect to be stuck in neutral in the early going. Northwestern was one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation last season and 3rd worst Red Zone offense behind U Mass. This year, still uncertainty at QB but it looks like former South Carolina QB Hilinski will get the nod. Look for NW to rely on run game behind a few dudes, including possible NFL first rounder - OT Skowronski. NW has scored 30+ in just 2 games vs Power 5 conference teams under OC Bajackian. Nebraska, on the other hand, parted ways with QB Martinez and will look for Texas transfer Casey Thompson to guide the offense. We'll look for growing pains early with new OC Mark Whipple who was with Pittsburgh last year. Of course, he had QB Pickett and WR Jordan Allison to light up the scoreboard. He doesn't quite have that kind of talent to work with yet. These teams are playing on a grass field in Ireland for the first time ever. They're a combined 1-8 O/U in their last 9 on grass. "Under" the call. 

Patriots/Raiders 8:15: Patriots' offense stuck in neutral without McDaniels on their sideline calling the shots. On the other hand, Belichick knows his former OC and what he runs like the back of his hand, And the Patriots' defensive front getting it done - winning battles on the line-of-scrimmage. We'll look for a slugfest here in a low scoring game with limited, if any, explosive plays. 

Vikings/Raiders 4:25: Two offensive minded head coaches in O'Connell and McDaniels seem to have their offenses a bit further along than their defenses. Minnesota will use more 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, 4 receivers) under O'Connell. Raiders' defense under new DC Graham is more complex than it was under Gus Bradley. There are multiple different packages to install and the Raiders currently are a bit banged up on that side of the ball early. Sure, Cousins (Covid 19) won't play, but Kellen Mond and veteran Sean Mannion have multiple skill weapons at their disposal. As for the Vikings, they too have a new defensive philosophy with a bunch of talented but young secondary personnel. These guys only been together for 3 weeks and there could easily be confusion. This series is 3-0-2 O/U. We'll give the offenses the green light here and see this one go "over". 

German/Montgomery 7:15: Maybe a pitcher-friendly park but both teams set for blast off tonight. Cardinals will put newly acquired Montgomery on the mound to face his former team. Montgomery struggled in his last 2 starts for the Yankees. He allowed 8 runs in 6 1/3 innings. Yankees are 3-0-1 O/U in last 4 vs lefty starters. Aaron Judge is on fire (.404 BA, 10 HRs, 23 RBI) since All-Star break. Yankees counter with struggling Domingo German (6.39 ERA/1.82 WHIP) and NY should go to bullpen early; after all, German averages about 4.1 IPG in limited action as a starter. He's facing a formidable Cardinals' lineup currently led by Goldschmidt and Arenado. Cardinals are 7-1 O/U in last 8 at home vs teams with winning records. And they're 20-8 O/U in their last 28 vs AL East. "Over" the call. 

Twins/Padres 7:15: Padres finally broke out of their power slump last night by launching 5 HRs off respectable Joe Ryan. Padres on a 5-4-1 O/U run. We'll look for the momentum to carry over against Sonny Gray who doesn't do his best work at night (4.70 ERA). Padres counter with fan favorite Joe Musgrove. Musgrove started the season virtually unhittable but has given up 9 ER on 14 hits over his last 10 1/3 innings. And he's 0-2 with a lofty 9.72 ERA vs Minnesota. Twins are 6-0 O/U in interleague road vs teams above .500. Padres now 4-0-1 O/U in last 5 when 'total' set between 7 to 8'. Shift in run momentum gives us an "over" play here.  

Padres/Mets 7:08: Analysis to follow...

Giants/Dodgers 10:09: Heavy "under" trends coupled with two solid pitchers in their respective roles while in a pitchers' park gives us an "under" play. Dodgers on a 6-13-3 O/U run and 14-33-4 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Giants 1-7-1 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Carolos Rodon is 1-5 O/U vs teams above .500. This series is 1-4-1 O/U in its last 6 matchups. Rodon and All-Star and consistent in allowing 2 runs or less. Mitch White, on the other hand, a pretty good righty when at home. Won't last long but has the backing of a solid bullpen. And the shuffling of the Giants lineup without SS Crawford (IL) and 3B Longoria (IL) gives way for inconsistency at plate for SF. "Under" the call. 

Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Two well-disciplined top 3 defenses been clamping down and the refs have been letting them play; as a result, the 'under' is popping. Tonight, got a line (210) that's dropped in our range and we're going "over". This is the lowest total in this series over the past decade! We'll look for better shooting by Boston and Curry, who rarely has back-to-back bad games, should significantly add to the total. Interesting side bit: Warriors and the Celtics on Thursday are a combined 15-1-1 O/U. "Over" it is. 

Warriors/Celtics 9:00: This series has been softly called by the referees relative to other playoff series. The refs are letting them play. Both teams are defensively stout and make good adjustments. Warriors are 2-6 O/U off a SU loss, 1-4 O/U in their last 5 dog roles, and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss of 10+. This series is 4-12 O/U and 3-7 O/U in Boston. "Under" the call. 

Celtics/Heat 8:30: These teams are very good defensively, but series sports an 11-5 O/U ledger. This total has been dropped down sharply and we're going "over". Celtics 8-3-1 O/U as road chalk. And Heat 8-2 O/U in Conference Finals. "Over" the call. 

Celtics/Heat 8:45: The total for this series is set at its lowest in years. This series has gone 7-3 O/U in its last 10 meetings. Miami had just two poor playoff shooting performances in its last 10 post-season games. They've eclipsed 100 in 8 of last 10. As for Boston, they just had 1 poor playoff scoring performance - May 1st at home vs Milwaukee - in their last 10 playoff outings. Both teams are shooting well and have electric big game players - Tatum for Boston and Butler for Miami - who are stepping up their game and getting the needed bench help. Their defenses are solid but their offensive execution a bit better. These teams are a combined 8-0 O/U in Conference Final games and we're staying "over". 

Bucks/Celtics 7:00: In this playoff series at Boston, both games did not reach 200 points; as a matter of fact, 5 of the last 7 in this series at Boston went "under". Both coaching staffs are well versed on defense and know their roles despite the lineup changes. "Under' the call.

Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Both home games for the Suns in this series went "over". In Dallas, both went "under". We'll go back to the "over" here. Lines-makers adjusted the total down after those two lower scoring games in Dallas. Look for the Suns to turn it up a notch or two tonight. Unlikely Chris Paul will foul out with just 5 points like Game 4. Suns are 11-3 O/U as playoff chalk. Mavs should match the pace. Mavericks 7-2 O/U road and 4-1 O/U as a road dog. "Over" the call. 

Analysis to follow...

Houston/Villanova 6:09: Cougars showed why they're the #1 FG% defense in the nation vs Arizona. And Villanova is not as good of a shooting team as Arizona. Cougars now 1-4 O/U in their last 5 as an NCAA Tournament favorite. And they're 2-7 O/U overall. 'Cats 1-5 O/U in their last 6 and 1-7 O/U on a neutral floor. Both teams well-orchestrated defensively and we'll stay "under". 

TCU/Seton Hall 9:57: Both teams are defensively stout but offensively challenged. TCU 4-10 O/U on a neutral floor while Pirates 1-5 O/U neutral. Value with the "under" here. 

49ers/Rams 6:40: Defense should take precedence today with relatively healthy defensive bodies across the board. 49ers' defense and special teams playing at an elite level while the Rams' defense finally living up to its potential. SF 1-7 O/U last 8 playoff games and 0-4 O/U as a playoff dog. Rams 4-17 O/U as a home favorite. "Under" the call. 

Toledo/Ohio 6:00: Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and this game should continue to be high scoring in the series; after all, the last 3 sported totals of 157, 173 and 167, respectively. Rockets are 10-3 O/U on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Bobcats 19-7 O/U in their last 26 at home vs teams with a road wining % above .600. We'll go "over"

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Frigid temperatures (2 degrees/14 MPH winds) should turn this game into a ball control defensive battle similar to the December 6th slugfest. Patriots 2-8 O/U as a dog and 1-4 O/U on road as a dog. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Buffalo. Buffalo 2-5 O/U as a home favorite. We'll look for this one to stay "under". 

Chiefs/Broncos 4:30: I hit with the "under" on December 5th in this series at KC. Today, we'll stay "under" again. Line value added to "under" with both teams coming off poor defensive performances. For the Broncos, they gave up a rare 101-yard kickoff return and a 45 yard TD pass to Mike Williams. That's rare for a Vic Fangio coached program against a division rival. Meanwhile, KC got smoked by the speedy receivers of Cincinnati despite tight coverage. Today, KC secondary matches much better against the Denver receiving corps and surely Drew Lock is no Joe Burrow. Denver defense will have some tough sledding without CB Patrick Surtain II (out); nevertheless, Denver defense gives but is tough to break (#3 scoring defense). Fangio most likely will sit in a Cover 2 shell and force KC to run the football with Edwards-Helaire still out. Broncos are 0-6 O/U after allowing 30+ points and 1-5 O/U in their last 6 dog roles. Moreover, they're 5-20 O/U when the O/U line is set at 45 or over. With Fangio at 0-6 O/U w/ revenge vs division, "Under" is the call.  

Giants/Bears 1:00: Two offenses ranking in the bottom tier of the league with backup QBs. Dalton should get the start for the Bears. While the Giants will share time with either Fromm or Glennon. If that's not ugly enough, Toney and Slayton are out, their starting center (Price) is out, and Freddie Kitchens is once again calling the plays. No wonder RB Barkley (ankle) may want to sit this one out. With both defenses respectable and keeping them in games, scoring will be at a premium. And throw in the 28 degree weather with high winds and the low set total doesn't look that low after all. Bears 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home favorite roles and the Giants are 6-19 O/U run. "Under" the call. 

Iowa/Kentucky 1:00: Expect old school football with teams that like to pound the football and play great defense. Iowa offense not potent (123rd in the nation) and should be even less potent today without their 1100+ rusher Tyler Goodson who opted out (NFL prep). Iowa's QBs' Petras or Padilla don't strike fear in defenses. And Kentucky is solid defensively. Iowa counts on their defense to set them up in field position; after all, they're #1 in forcing turnovers and Kentucky is prone to turnovers. The Wildcats do, however, run the ball well. They have a 1200+ rusher in Rodriguez and an 1100+ receiver in Wan' Dale Robinson. Their other two receivers opted out. Iowa is 14th in the nation in scoring defense and rarely gives up explosive plays. We'll look for a ground and pound clock eating game with limited scoring. "Under" the call. 

Central Michigan/Washington State Noon: Both teams present explosive offenses. Now Washington State will not have its top 2 running backs (Borghi and McIntosh) and their starting tackles; however, they've shuffled their line throughout the season and managed to put points on the board. In this instance, they face a poor secondary of Central Michigan. The Chippewas are aggressive in their blitz schemes (3.1 sacks per game) but give up explosive plays. Washington State has skill players Jordan (801 yards/9 TDs) and Harris (955 yards/7 TDs) that can torch the CM secondary. QB De Laura can sling it (23 TD/9 INTs/ 64%). And RB Nakia Watson gets his opportunity to showcase his running skills. On the other hand, CM has an explosive offense that Washington State will have trouble with. RB Lew Nicholls III ran for 1710 yards and 15 TDs and can catch the ball out of the backfield. QB Richardson has a wealth of athletes including vertical threat Pimpleton. And Washington State won't have its starting corners including Jaylen Watson (opted out NFL). Washington State 4-0 O/U as chalk, CM 10-3 O/U as a dog and 7-3 O/U vs non-conference. "Over" the call. 

Iowa State/Clemson 5:45: A matchup that looks to be lower scoring. Clemson, which never got its offense in rhythm under QB Uiagalelei (9 TD/8 INT 54.7% completions), most likely will struggle vs a the Top 10 Iowa State defense. Cyclones play 3-3-5 presents problems to most teams. They limit explosive plays and can create havoc on QBs with DE Will McDonald IV (11' sacks) leading the way. Moreover, Clemson limited in vertical threats now that E.J. Williams (Covid) and Ross (foot) are out. They do have RB Shipley (true freshman) who came on strong to establish a run game for the Tigers mid-season. They look to lean on him tonight. On the other hand, Iowa State's All-American RB Breece Hall opted out to prepare for the NFL draft and that's a big loss. He was the fuel to the Iowa State offense and QB Brock Purdy leaned on him heavily. Now Clemson's ball hawking secondary can keep their focus on TE Kolar and WR Hutchinson. Technically, Clemson is 1-7 O/U in December, 0-6 O/U vs the Big12 while Iowa State is 0-8 O/U in bowls. "Under" the call. 

Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Thought this 'total' would be a bit higher considering the contrasting offenses that are explosive and difficult to prepare for. Cardinals possess one of the most versatile QBs in the game in Malik Cunningham who has multiple weapons to go to. Air Force defense is very good but this is surely the best they've faced all season. On the other hand, Cardinals will face the vaunted Air Force triple option which is difficult to prepare for. Louisville hasn't been a good run stopping unit this season and just got pounded by a Kentucky team in their last game of the season. Louisville is 5-2 O/U after allowing 200+ yards rushing, and they're 6-2 O/U in non-conference play. AF is 4-1 O/U as a bowl dog. "Over" the call. 

Dolphins/Saints 8:15:  This 'total' opened at 40 but whittled down to 37. Still value with the "under". Saints hit hard by Covid and down to their 4th team QB Ian Book. This will be his first appearance, let alone start, in an NFL regular season game. Sean Payton will surely not put him in a role to air it out regularly, especially without his starting T Ramczyk (covid) out; instead, Payton will have him lean on his supporting skill cast including versatile Kamara as a key check down option. Should be tough to get the vertical pass game going with limited vertical weapons, thin offensive line and the ball hawking secondary of Miami. On the other hand, New Orleans' defense (#4 in points allowed) will again need to step up their game like they did vs TB and Brady. Despite some thinning in the secondary, they can get it done vs a mediocre Miami offense (24th total yards). Dolphins 2-5 O/U as road favorite while the Saints are 4-12 O/U off back-to-back SU wins, and they're 2-9 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. "Under" the call. 

Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call.

Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". 

Cowboys/Saints 8:20: A few points of value with this Over/Under. Saints are limited in offensive weaponry. QB Taysom Hill should get the start but he doesn't have a lot of explosive options to go to. Kamara (knee) practiced on a limited basis this week and he is surely the best option for Hill to hook up with; however, he's been out 3 weeks and just had a few practices. Dallas' interim HC Quinn, who is also the DC, should adjust his defensive plan accordingly. The Cowboys' defense has given up more than enough explosive plays this year. Tonight, if Quinn has his deep defenders keep everything in front of them, he should be able to limit Saints' scoring. Dallas, on the other hand, should have Prescott's top receiver - Lamb - and on a limited basis - Cooper. Cowboys' run game, however, a concern. Just 64 rush yards last week and New Orleans' run-stop-unit allows just 91.9 YPG (#3). Saints' defense allows a respectable 22.6 PPG. Cowboys will be without both their offensive line coaches and HC McCarthy. Shouldn't affect play calling duties. Dallas, however, will be without RT Steele (Covid) and LT Smith really struggled last week after getting back into action recoverin from injuries. Technically, Dallas is 2-10 O/U vs the NFC South, 1-4 O/U as a road favorite and on a 1-4 O/U run. Saints 0-9 O/U Thursday run and this series is 1-4 O/U. We'll stay "under". 

Utah/USC 11:30pm: These teams are both well-disciplined on the defensive end. USC's Enfield has his boys holding foes to a smothering 34.4% from the floor and hasn't allowed a single opponent to shoot 40% this season. Utah's first year HC Craig Smith - who came from defensively stout Utah State - has his team allowing just 60 PPG (48th nationally) and guard the perimeter well (24.8% - 4th nationally). Trojans aren't going to light it up from 3 point land for Ellis is their top gun hitting the trey at a 41% clip but averaging around 15 PPG. USC does have the interior presence with Mobley but Utah defense stingy at allowing 38% from floor. And USC can get to the foul line but clanks it at a disappointing 57.7% clip. On the offensive end for Utah, they're more workmanlike than sizzling shooting. 7' C Craig Smith and G Jenkins are key contributors but aren't going to light it up on USC's home floor. USC is 3-8 O/U after allowing less than 50 points in previous game while Utah is 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road tilts. "Under" the call. 

Bills/Saints 8:20: See a defensive battle here. Saints' offense stuck in neutral without any playmakers (Kamara and Michael Thomas out). Should see versatile Taysom Hill manage the offense but limited with skill support. And Buffalo #1 defense (total yards) stewing after allowing Jonathon Taylor to run all over them. Bills 1-8 O/U off SU loss and 2-5 O/U off double-digit loss at home. Buffalo offense lackluster lately without a run game. New Orleans' defense, which is #3 vs the run, was also embarrassed last week as the Eagles ran roughshod on them. Saints' Cam Jordan and company should buckle down here. Saints 4-9 O/U after allowing more than 350 yards, and 0-9 O/U on Thursdays. We'll stay "under".  

Fresno State/San Jose State 3:30: Both teams have something on the line for them here besides the Valley Trophy. Fresno can with the Mountain Division title with a win and a loss by San Diego State on Friday. San Jose State needs a win to be bowl eligible. I'm going to look for a defensive battle. Since 2016, the last 4 in this series have gone "under" scoring a combined 30, 37, 44 and 33, respectively. San Jose State ranks 106th offensively. QB Nick Starkel missed October with a collar bone injury and is struggling on account of no run game and limited help from skill personnel. Starkel's completing just 52.9% of his passes. Fresno has a solid defense ranked 32nd in the nation in points allowed (21.3 PPG). On the other hand, Fresno offense solid but Spartans' defense a scrappy bunch that keeps them in games. Spartans 0-4 O/U as a home dog. We'll stay "under".

Florida/Missouri 4:00: This series has historically been "under" in recent years but I'm going "over" today. Florida's defense has been abysmal to put it mildly. They've given up 49, 34, 40 and 52 over the last 4 weeks, respectively. The 52 was given up to subdivision lightweight Samford. And Florida knows their defense is in bad shape when their leading tackler last week was their safety (Rashad Torrence) with 11 tackles! Weeks earlier Mullen fired his DC and is searching for answers. It won't happen against Missouri. The Tigers' offense is led by a 1500+ rusher in Tyler Badie who should add to his season TD total (16). Missouri, on the other hand, can't stop the run. They give up nearly 250 YPG. And you know Mullen loves to run the rock. He has a versatile QB in Emory Jones that fuels a potent offense. Florida is 12-4 O/U on the road, 5-2 O/U in November, and 12-5 O/U after allowing 450+ yards. Missouri has gone 4-1 O/U in last 5 home games, and they're on a 7-2 O/U run. "Over" the call. 

Rams/49ers 8:15: Rams having issues on offensive line that are preventing them from being the elite offense they're capable of. Tennessee surely exploited it last week. And much ado about nothing regarding bringing in Beckham Jr. He had one practice and surely will be used sparingly. What's of more concern is loss of Robert Woods (ACL). SF's defense at its best when edge rusher Bosa is healthy. Secondary injuries have mounted so 49ers' d-line will have to be at its best. On the other hand, Rams' defense under DC Morris not what it was last year under Staley yet still productive. Top receiver - Samuel should be matched up by lock down corner Ramsey. SF 1-4 O/U as a dog and 7-19 O/U off double-digit SU loss at home. They're also 5-15-1 O/U after allowing 30+ points. Rams are 1-4 O/U off a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 O/U November and 2-12 O/U when the O/U line is above 50. It's currently at 50.5. This series is 2-6 O/U in SF and we'll stay "under". 

Seahawks/Packers 4:25: The "total" elevated on news Russell Wilson (finger) and Aaron Rodgers (Covid19) were cleared. Sure, both offenses immediately upgraded but can't ignore the stats: Green Bay's defense has been the best it has been in years under new DC Joe Barry. Packers' defense #5 in the NFL in total yards allowed and #6 in total points (20 PPG) allowed. Russell Wilson is magical on the field but he's limited as the Seattle run game can't get generated (21st in league) as injuries mount in the backfield. On the other hand, Seattle defense has improved the last few weeks showing an ability to make stops in crucial moments. Both these teams are a combined 3-14 O/U this season. We'll look for a lower scoring game on the frozen tundra today.